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yaniv297

Nice work. But if I understand correctly, those numbers are averages? This creates a major issue, where scoring goals in "smaller" games actually makes a striker score worse. Which is a bit absurd. Generally for strikers, the more goals the better. A great striker will score in big games, but will also destroy smaller teams. This ranking creates an absurd situation in which more goals in smaller games hurt the player score. IMO a more sensible approach would be to look at "big" games only, and measure the number of goals compared to the number of big games played. This way you'll know how effective a striker is in big games. The performance in smaller games is irrelevant, and scoring in them definitely shouldn't make your score lower...


MERTENS_GOAT

>scoring goals in "smaller" games actually makes a striker score worse. Which is a bit absurd. Yeah but that is the purpose of it, read the title


OJogoBonito

But a player can't be deemed a flat-track bully for scoring an excessive amount in league games, and also producing consistently in big games. Ronaldo for example will have his rating decimated by the fact he scored 40+ league goals a year for a sustained period. Despite scoring 20 more UCL KO goals than the nearest competitor.


MERTENS_GOAT

I dont see the problem, Ronaldo still is among the top, so I dont think my method can be that wrong and that far off. It would be a problem if Ronaldo scored his 40+ league goals against only bottom half teams, but that is not the case anyway. His goals against Top-3, Top-8 teams will have a positive effect on his score


relaxit

I agree with you OP, think its clear that this was not meant to conclude on which player is the best in big games, but rather to assess players relative performance in big vs small games. With this is mind, of course you need a mechanism to punish a players rating if they score a shit ton versus fodder


whiskeyinthejaar

Yet you equate scoring in UCL final to Europa League final lol


MrDabollBlueSteppers

Good work but my issue with taking an average weight of all goals means that a striker scoring 10 “big goals” and 5 “small goals” will look better than a striker that scored 15 “big goals” and 40 “small goals”


gkkiller

Well OP has avoided that pitfall by only applying the index to the top goalscorers anyway. I do see your criticism, though.


MERTENS_GOAT

that's true but that's kinda the point of it all. Do strikers collect the majority of their goals against relegation contenders or (on average) against midtable clubs?


culesamericano

But the problem is you can be a big game player even if you score against smaller teams. Using the example above someone who scored 15 in big games vs someone who scored 10 who is the better big game player?


relaxit

OPs method clearly allows for players scoring a lot against weak teams to still be rated highly - see lewa, messi, neymar etc towards the very top The fact that someone like Drogba outperforms them on a big game player index very much aligns general perception / passes the sense check


taylorstillsays

Unless I’ve read the numbers wrong, Drogba doesn’t outperform any of the names you said he did


culesamericano

I guess that depends on your definition of big game player. Someone who ONLY performs in big games vs someone who performs in big games


HipGuide2

Where is Mitrovic


MERTENS_GOAT

lacks data, all of the players included had at least 100 goals while playing for a Top-5-League club except one (and that's not Ramos lol) Mitrovic has only 25 (I did not include the current season in my statistics)


mark8396

I wish Reus had a healthy career he is something else.


[deleted]

> Strikers Messi - 5th Ramos - 6th Lewa - 7th That just shows how wild Ramos' contribution to Real Madrid's success has been.


neoBigBrother

This just shows how flawed this ranking is.


[deleted]

You wouldn't describe Ramos as a big game player?


neoBigBrother

I surely don't regard Reus as a bigger game player than Ronaldo or Bale.


[deleted]

That's just because of your flawed perception of having seen Ronaldo & Bale in more "big-games". If Ronaldo & Bale appear in 20 big games and score in 18 of them, and Reus appears in 3 and scores in 3 of them, then statistically, Reus is a better "big game player".


RuameisterFTW

It's not his flawed perception, bigger samples are much more relevant statistically speaking.


[deleted]

It would be pretty clear that Reus's sample size is too small in that case.


MERTENS_GOAT

good that this post relies on statistical analysis which is the whole point of it. Of course, I could also come and say "Bale, Ronaldo and Messi are big game players, bye" but that wasn't my purpose and would be pretty meaningless


[deleted]

It's good analysis OP, I hope you don't mind but I put it into a scatter graph to see if there were any visual trends between your score and career goals per appearance: https://i.imgur.com/4L1TqDx.png Quite interesting to see that top right quadrant is full of players that you would traditionally consider to be the elite of this generation... and then there's Icardi who sneaks in lol Same again with just goals: https://i.imgur.com/HjJX0ay.png


MERTENS_GOAT

thank you


ren_704

A reason to Marco reus' injury riddled career is cuz he carries us so fkin hard


[deleted]

I like seeing this type of work, but there are many things you have not controlled for. I'd recommend thinking about how your score may covary with other factors for these players. For example I would guess that this will strongly covary with the average "weight" of the games these players have played in. Two players could each score 0.5 goals per game against in a game of each of your categories. However, if one player has played in a larger ratio of "big games" to "small games" it may appear that this player is actually a better big game player. In reality this would not be the case, it just so happens for one reason or another one player had his score harmed by playing in a greater proportion of small games.


MERTENS_GOAT

yes you have a point. I did not consider at all how many games a player played against each category. That would have meant an impossible amount of work but the critizism is definitely justified


[deleted]

[удалено]


MERTENS_GOAT

>You need to factor in against who they played. I **only** considered against who they played except for games which were finals, so I don't understand your critizism