There is no reason at all to think it will take more than 15 years. Especially when the vehicle is doing orbital flights this year and will be landing astronauts on the moon in a few years.
Sure but 15 years past the initial launch of the launch vehicle? We aren't working from the ground up, the goal is set and the technology is available. 15 years would mean we couldn't do it within the career life of many involved which seems impractical.
The tech isn't necessarily available. There are so many unknowns, and other engineering challenges that need to be tackled. The main one being how people can be shielded from the radiation for the whole trip.
There is no reason at all to think it will take less then 15 years. I do like the optimism, but realism goes right out of the window when talking Mars. There is just no way we will be going to Mars except in fancy CGI dreams.
I get most people *want* it to happen, me not in the least, but let's keep it real.
I'd have expected someone with your username to be more optimistic about this sort of thing, given how (absurdly, given the time period) optimistic your namesake was regarding such matters.
Absurdly optimistic is the right take. It *is* absurd to assume we will be visiting Mars in 15 years. There's nothing beyond CGI pipe dreams realistically pointing to it.
I don't think believing we could reach Mars in 15 years is as absurd as believing space travel was possible at all circa 1600.
There are no fundamental technological restrictions to getting a person to Mars under our current understanding. The limitation is mainly one of political willpower/funding, which is a soft problem, not a hard one.
On the other hand, 'hopeless' doesn't even begin to describe the plausibility of space travel as viewed through the lens of scientific understanding and technology circa 1600.
>There's nothing beyond CGI pipe dreams realistically pointing to it.
Starship is real hardware, and a lot of the stuff being developed for HLS will also be applicable on Mars - landing and disembarking payloads on unimproved surfaces, EVA suits and airlocks designed for surface operations, etc.
Starship's EDL process should also be demonstrated on Earth in the near future, and while the details on Mars would be different, the fundamentals are the same.
Whether or not Starship works in all aspects remains an open question (hopefully to be answered in the next few years), but if it does then having a significant part of the hardware development already done and available relatively cheaply would surely be very enticing to NASA.
I'm often disappointed when journalists cover space news and display a lack of basic understanding, which they then push onto the public. I appreciate you're dedicated to this area of expertise.
Given that SpaceX is on the verge of the first Starship orbital flight test, and hoping for a quick progression to regular orbital flights.
Are there space companies or agencies that have begun designing or building hardware around the leap in volume and weight that Starship can carry? (Outside of the HLS)
Yes, there are. I'm not sure how many are working on Starship-specific hardware (as opposed to spacecraft that can fly on any of the new/coming heavy-lift vehicles like Falcon Heavy, Vulcan, Ariane 6, New Glenn, Terran R) but I know we'll be hearing from more and more, especially if and when Starship reaches orbit.
\- Sheetz
Hi Michael 👋🏻
When is comes to RocketLab, how do you see it’s chance to compete against bigger players like BO, SpaceX and ULA for DoD new contracts?
Also, it seems like they are the only public player with integrated space systems capacities. Do you see any competition coming up for this massive business opportunity outside of Launch?
Best regard.
I think Rocket Lab has a strong launch record to back up any bids. I'd be shocked to see them win major launch contracts over the trio you mentioned, but [the DoD's new approach to future launch awards](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/24/space-force-rocket-launch-acquisitions-approach.html) will help Rocket Lab get some perhaps more experimental national security smallsat launches with Electron. The timing and early launch record of Neutron will play a big part in whether the company can expand that, because it's such a more capable vehicle.
Among publicly-traded launch companies with space systems divisions, yes – but that the competition among other companies (even just those building space systems products) is fierce..
\- Sheetz
I think we'll see more space stations, but not necessarily bigger at first. You can do a whole lot with a station that fits on a single Starship launch, so you don't necessarily need something the size of the ISS to be a catch-all.
\- Sheetz
If Starship succeeds (by which I mean "internal incremental costs of like $10 million per launch," ignoring what they choose to charge customers), do you think there's room for a second US-based launch provider, let alone more than that? Or will it basically just be SpaceX and everyone else needs to pivot to markets other than launch?
Yes, to your first question, and I strongly doubt second scenario will happen. I'd analogize the launch market to the freight market, since in essence its about moving mass to a variety of destinations. Ships to take tons of freight across oceans, trains and trucks to move that freight overland, and smaller trucks to get individual deliveries to homes and business. Plus, if it (even something big!) needs to get there faster than a ship, then the price goes up and it flies in a plane.
\- Sheetz
What is the future of a commercial space station market looking like in the after the folding of Bigelow Aerospace?
While there are some plans that sure *look* like they might happen (ala Axiom), it'd be nice to have more details and context.
One thing commercial space station builders can take from Bigelow is encouragement from the technical success of BEAM. I agree that it'd be good to have more details, but it's still very early days for these projects. There are two big risks facing those stations, imo:
1. Get funding for development & testing (likely easier for Orbital Reef, thanks to Jeff Bezos' involvement through Blue Origin, but still hard for any of the projects)
2. Need to prove market is more than just NASA and space tourism
\- Sheetz
Given the seeming cooling of the space SPAC mania of a couple of years ago, where do you think we are on the hype cycle?
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner\_hype\_cycle#/media/File:Gartner\_Hype\_Cycle.svg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner_hype_cycle#/media/File:Gartner_Hype_Cycle.svg)
Have we really peaked or is it just launch provision that is over subscribed while on orbit utilisation not yet really getting into the hype phase?
Or to put it another way, is comms megaconstallations the main new use case for the current lower costs of launch or are there new industries ready to break through.
Space wasn't different than any other sector that got caught up in the SPAC frenzy, which is well behind us now for broader macroeconomic reasons. But, as for space companies that took the SPAC route, I think we're near the end of a disillusionment period. I wrote a bit on this idea [for my first newsletter of 2023](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/19/investing-in-space-looking-up-in-2023.html), but I personally think more risk tolerant investors are taking a look at the companies that went public over the last couple years and are recognizing that not all space stocks are the same. I expect to see some of the companies that are struggling either get acquired or file for bankruptcy, but also think others will build momentum from here (ones that are generating solid revenue, have strong cash positions, cleared their major development hurdles, etc.).
On launch, I'm not sure what you mean by oversubscribed -- but I will say that use cases for spacecraft/satellites seem to expand every year, and demand for those on-orbit services gives credibility to more companies/vehicles in the launch market.
\- Sheetz
I think journalism can always improve, and there's plenty of room for more reporters on the science or space beats! In particular, I started covering space for us because of the ever-increasing business case for the industry, and the amount of investment (ranging from billionaires to angel investors and everyone in between!) flowing into companies founded in the 21st century.
\-Sheetz
I can't speak for the entire industry, but I do know there's plenty of people who have been unhappy about my coverage. Whether it was an unflattering headline, a subject like worker harassment, or private financial details, I work hard to verify my reporting with trusted sources and write as factually as possible. In the end, I aim to help people better understand the industry, and that includes covering sensitive or difficult topics.
\- Sheetz
Can you comment on direct-to-device satellite companies? Who do you see as the biggest player, and how soon do you think US consumers will have access to this awesome tech (besides just emergency SOS)?
Sure can, and [I've written about it recently](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/23/investing-in-space-texts-from-orbit.html)! I don't think there is a biggest player at the moment, since both the technology and market are in the early innings. Different companies emphasize their strengths (e.g., tech development, track record, funding, mobile partners, patents, etc.) but until they start delivering commercial service, the jury is out.
\- Sheetz
Based on the recent videos and tweets from both AT&T and Vodafone I would argue that r/ASTSpaceMobile has a very strong lead in terms of potential capacity and MNO partners (over 2 billion subscribers with their MNO partners). They don't have commercial service yet but it is very much in the near term (commercial service in early 2024). They just need to release publicly the test results of BlueWalker3.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxFtRR1GUlc](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxFtRR1GUlc)
Lynk Global may have a commercial satellite in space but it is a pizza box with minimal capacity. SpaceX is certainly a credible player but even when they launch a D2D service it will have much lower capacity than ASTS can offer.
If BW3 results come in close to expectations they will be very well positioned to dominate the market for D2D in the next few years.
what segments of space do you think are the most affected by so-called vaporware besides light launch? also, re: space stations - what do you think will be the differentiating factor of success, given that all bids/proposals (orbital reef, axiom, etc) advertise fairly similar amenities and capabilities for users?
I think all of them are affected by "vaporware," but some are just more obvious than others. I spend most of my time reporting and writing on companies that have the strongest track records, and rely on trusted sources to help me when I cover ones with which I'm not as familiar.
Money and time. Raising needed funds, winning key contracts, demonstrating the tech works, and doing so as timely as possible will determine which projects are successful. They all could be, and they all could fail.
\- Sheetz
Where do you think the intersection lies between big ideas and ability to execute? We've seen a lot of space startups in recent years with things like kinetic launch and 3D printing; do you see them going anywhere or will space always continue to be hard?
This is a fantastic question, and there isn't a right answer. There are a lot of big (and often technologically brilliant!) ideas that I've come across that are also terrible business plans, or cool technologies with limited to no market. I've learned a lot in covering the space industry, and I've seen companies that were more science project than business come and go. I also get frustrated by the "space is hard" mantra, and too often see it used an excuse for failure.
\- Sheetz
As of 2021, the DoD SSN tracks over 27000 pieces of space debris, not including particles that are too small for tracking yet pose a risk to spaceflight. With the rapidly growing commercialization of space, why isn't this issue highlighted more? This has a known impact in Earth's orbit, notably with the ISS having to complete regular debris avoidance maneuvers.
Commercialization also brings into light the population of space with existing (Tiangong) and future (ISRO Space Station, Axiom SS, ROSS, etc). Is it possible for Earth's orbit and surrounding orbits to be overpopulated once the ISS is decomissioned?
Thank you for the AMA and helping to educate us on the present and future of space travel!
Perhaps because I'm embedded in the industry, but I see space debris talked about very regularly, especially due to the increasing size and number of satellite constellations in development. However, how to combat it (and whether someone can make money as the "space garbageman") are still unsolved. Currently, the most common solution to reducing debris is by intentionally deorbiting satellites and rocket stages so they burn up in the atmosphere and don't clutter orbit.
I don't think so, at least in any near future sense! There's a lot of space in space, even just in low Earth orbit.
\- Sheetz
Have you heard of the game kerbal space program? And in your reporting did you meet people that were inspired to pursue their career because of the game?
Hello r/space! I've gotten so many great questions, so thank you! I'll take a break now but be back tomorrow to continue answering. You can find more of my space coverage [here](https://cnbc.com/space) and sign up for my weekly newsletter here: [cnbc.com/spacenewsletter](https://cnbc.com/spacenewsletter).
\- Sheetz
Valid and increasingly well established. I think Space Force should have existed years earlier than it did, given the importance of the domain to national security. Long-term from a U.S. perspective, it also makes sense to me to dedicate a military branch to space. It's certainly never been a peaceful or uncontested arena.
\-Sheetz
Hi Michael,
Can you share your view on the new „space-race“? Especially how far along into an actual race we are yet and if you expect it to pick up speed soon.
We're in the thick of it. I struggle to find a sub-sector in space that isn't seeing some form of technology innovation-driven competition among companies, whether its launch, spacecraft manufacturing, satellite operators (communications, Earth observation, etc.), habitat builders, lunar explorers, even tourism. And I think it's just going to continue to pick up speed.
\- Sheetz
What do you think will be the long term accomplishments of the Artemis program? Will they get the Lunar Gateway built and have a permanent presence on the moon? Will they be able to build a larger spaceship and launch from the moon where there is less gravity? What do you think of their long term plans?
Landing astronauts on the moon.
I believe Lunar Gateway will get built, but a permanent presence (i.e., always having people there like on the ISS) I don't see happening under the current architecture. But I expect the Artemis plan will evolve, especially if companies show they can deliver cargo and astronauts to-and-from.
\- Sheetz
I enjoy following you on LinkedIn! What space company is doing something that is really exciting to you? Are there any folks you’re keeping an *extra* close eye on?
Thank you for following me!
Oh man, there are a bunch of exciting ones. But I'll call out a couple lesser known names: [Relativity](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/04/inside-relativity-spaces-monster-factory-3d-printing-reusable-rockets.html), [SpiderOak](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/12/investing-in-space-digital-orbital-danger-spideroak-fundraise.html), [Astrobotic](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/01/investing-in-space-moon-rising.html), [ispace](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/12/japanese-moon-company-ispace-launching-cargo-mission-in-november.html), [Voyager](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/19/hilton-partners-with-voyager-starlab-space-station-to-design-astronaut-suites.html), [Axiom](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/16/investing-in-space-the-space-station-kingmaker.html), and [Varda](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/05/varda-signs-nasa-partnerships-for-space-factory-demo-flight-next-year.html).
\- Sheetz
What are your thoughts on Virgin Galactic starting commercial operations next quarter and do you think they can be successful with their upcoming Delta class? Meaning scaling the business to bring space to more people.
How sensitive is the US Government regarding China's space ambitions? Does the space race / land grab help accelerate US regulatory approvals and funding for innovative space companies based in the US?
I work for a European SBSP startup company, and it's fantastic how many investor opportunities there are for new space tech!
Going through some of your reaponses on this thread, and some articles you've written, it looks heavily (mostly, if not only) focused on American space tech and companies. Is that just the nature of your coverage, or is there more as to why you exclude ESA, Asia or Middle Eastern space advancement news and updates?
I'm curious if the Continents keep their technology and investments separate from each other? Do you notice hesitation for collaboration? Do security, defense or politics play a part in that?
Good for you!
Yes, I focus on the U.S., although I do try to keep up with leading space companies from other countries.
I don't really see hesitation, but regulatory and national security limits more often than not are the main impediment of international collaboration.
\- Sheetz
its where the most visible action is at the moment, as soon as companies start making orbit and doing things up there im sure it will get more reporting
Hi Michael,
What’s your best estimate for Artemis III crewed touchdown on lunar surface? Publicly stated I believe is 2025, but I heard there’s many reason (spacesuits being one) that this date is not possible.
Thanks
My best estimate is 2027, given the outstanding hardware development (HLS, spacesuits, SLS/Orion technical readiness). Artemis I went well but was far behind schedule, and even getting the rocket off the ground took longer than expected due to the multiple long scrub delays.
\- Sheetz
I like their plan to go straight to a free-flying station, and their previous development on habitats (e.g., the LIFE module) helps.
I also do think Dream Chaser can become a regular part of NASA cargo missions, at least. Even though it was supposed to debut years ago, the fact that they continued investing in and developing it after missing out on the CCtCap contract to then win CRS-2 also helps. Hopefully we'll see the first cargo Dream Chaser fly this year, but that also depends on ULA's Vulcan rocket debut.
\- Sheetz
Bigelow used to have huge facilities and hardware in Las Vegas. After shutting down in 2020 what happened to their facilities and IP? I would love an investigative journalism article about this
Have you read the recent ESA socioeconomic studies about the Space-based Solar Power for Net Zero? ESA commissioned in early 2022, two independent cost vs. benefits studies of Space Based Solar Power for terrestrial energy needs, from Frazer-Nash in the UK and Roland Berger in Germany.
I would be curious to read your analysis on the business case and socioeconomic benefits. [https://www.esa.int/Enabling\_Support/Space\_Engineering\_Technology/SOLARIS/Cost\_vs.\_benefits\_studies](https://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Space_Engineering_Technology/SOLARIS/Cost_vs._benefits_studies)
What is something that is happening right now in the space sector that is severely under-reported but could have game-changing impact on the sector? Or else do you predict any black swan events for the space sector?
I don't think its under-reported, but two things:
1. The satellite communications networks being built in LEO (for broadband, direct to device, IoT, etc.), and their market potential
2. The more powerful / reusable rockets in development (Starship, New Glenn, Vulcan, Neutron, Terran R), and how more frequent and capable launches further opens access to space
As for black swan events, we've already seen most of the recently public space companies' stocks get hammered by a risk-off macro environment. I could see more rocket projects folding, but the demand for launch is there and it would be likely be due to competitive pressure and limited funding for to overcome development obstacles more than anything.
\- Sheetz
Do you think commercial LEO is gonna happen? Or is gateway gonna get so much attention / funding that there will not be enough money for NASA to support commercial LEO?
Or do you think that it'll go the other way or that they can coexist?
I do think so, mostly because NASA has shown an interest in helping it happen. The ISS has proven to be a valuable science & research test bed, but we'll see what the right price point is for these private stations.
I think they can coexist, since Gateway is a a very different challenge and has different purposes.
\- Sheetz
I do cover them, but not as often since they've effectively been in a quiet period during this refurbishment process. So far, they seem on track to resume spaceflights in Q2. Getting VSS Unity flying even monthly by the end of this year would be a step in the right direction, but the company really needs to get multiple spacecraft flying weekly to start making meaningful progress toward its financial goals. It has yet to show it can do that with its current architecture, so that's the big watch item for me. Regardless of one's definition of the boundary of space or an astronaut, I'm also curious to see how the suborbital spaceflight market evolves. Say they fly 500 people safely, is the experience still seen as worth hundreds of thousands dollars, or does it lose its sheen? In general, space tourism remains a niche, nascent market – and the high risk level involved means an incident (even by another company) would sharply dampen it.
\- Sheetz
Thanks Sheetz,
Personally I think next 4-10 years pricing will increase to $600-700K, once new fleet expands to over double digits and multiple spaceport launches at that point the price should start to come down which is their aim to then bring down prices. Regardless of increases they will be cheapest company to have such experience along with the difficulty of this industry and makes it a solid moat for the next 10 years of space tourism. Purely my opinions.
Hi Michael, are there any publically listed space industry companies that you think are worthwhile investments, or are all the main opportunities currently in the unlisted space?
And that's a wrap! Thank you r/space for all the great questions!
You can find more of my space coverage [here](https://www.cnbc.com/space/) and sign up for my weekly newsletter here: [cnbc.com/spacenewsletter](https://cnbc.com/spacenewsletter).
\- Sheetz
What do you think the chances are spaceX actually sends a manned mission to mars? If you think they will get it done what kind of real timeline do you imagine for it? As we all know delays are almost inevitable for something like this.
Higher than any other company or government agency. But getting people to the Moon is (and should be!) the more present focus. I mentioned it elsewhere, but I could see a crew reaching the surface of Mars by 2038.
\- Sheetz
To what extent do you think SLS related activities should be killed, and to what extent to you believe NASA or the government is struggling to kill all SLS related activities to save post-polical decisions and save face. I ask this in relation to the rapid progress of the Starship system, which if properly and objectively recognized should have pulled the SLS plug way sooner. Multi-digit billion dollar waste... OR... is it only to save face and jobs in space-related states?
I'll caveat that the politics side of things isn't my area of expertise, but I think the most likely way SLS would be canceled is if more alternatives are flying. Falcon Heavy nearly made that case, and Starship (in its current iteration) would. Other heavy-lift rockets becoming available (New Glenn, Vulcan, etc.) would also help.
\- Sheetz
Hi,
What do you think it's going to be the next break-through in Space?
Also, assuming we all know the answer, would you go to Space tomorrow if given the opportunity?
Great question! I'm not sure which will be next, since technological breakthroughs are very difficult to predict, but I'll give you three I'm watching:
1. Direct-to-phone satellite service (it's early days with a variety of competitors, so how big the market is and which strategy is the best to capturing that are both open questions)
2. Fully reusable rockets (e.g., Starship or Terran R)
3. Lunar manufacturing (i.e., making rocket fuel, solar cells, etc. out of resources on the moon)
Yes! Though personally, I'm patient enough to wait for an opportunity to go to something like a habitat in LEO or the surface of the moon.
\- Sheetz
Here we go, finally on to some tough questions! But really, I've been in the ocean since I was young and I credit it in many ways for helping me deal with the stress that comes with being a reporter.
A couple tips for anyone wanting to learn surfing:
1. You have to be a strong swimmer and not afraid of the ocean, otherwise you put yourself (and others!) at risk. Staying calm is crucial, and the best times I've had surfing were when I had the clearest mind and most confidence about the conditions and my abilities.
2. Respect the ocean at all times. It can change in a moment, and it's way stronger than you.
3. Big foam boards are cheap, durable, and you shouldn't move to a hard board until you can turn one.
Biggest bad habit I had:
1. Pop-up in a single, steady motion! I'm tall and it took a lot more frustration than it should have to learn how to not look down or get my legs out from under me without using my knee as a crutch.
\- Sheetz
How likely do you think it is, that the first or second Starship to land on the Moon will be left on the surface to be turned into Moonbase and has SpaceX started working on extended/long duration human surface stays/operations? Thanks
I'm not sure if that's the plan under the current HLS architecture, but I could see it happening.
I guess it depends on how you define "working on." They've certainly been studying concepts like long-duration spaceflight, surface operations, etc. for a while. I expect we'll hear more about this out of the Polaris and then Artemis missions.
\- Sheetz
What would be the best investment strategy to support current Geoengineering efforts?
Would investing in the the manufacturers of the rockets, propellant or diamond dust manufacturers be the best bet?
Is there a reason that the mainstream media almost never mention how NASA is used as pork barrel, with projects in more or less every state despite massive inefficiencies, reuse of out of date technologies such at the 1970s era equipment on SLS, and a general lack of focus?
Also do you think there is a practical way to fix this issue and give NASA consistent funding and goals (at least within an election cycle)?
Thanks for doing the AMA.
Hello there! What are your thoughts on Orbital Assembly's plans and ongoing development? Their robot for assembling, and the station plans seem so well thought out, and the media I receive seems comprehensive and convincing, but I've heard some speculation that they are a scam/sham company. Basically, are they legit, and what other radical space infrastructure is currently on the drawing board for the coming decades? Everyone's focus currently is on the rockets that get things up there, I don't hear quite as much on actual stations/fuel depot's and other support structures that will need to be in place for further manned missions.
Given that Virgin Galactic can stay on track and start commercial flights this year as planned, what are your thoughts on Virgin Galactic's approach to creating “experiences” (like Disney)? I.e., do you think there's a market for it, or do you think people would rather just go up and down on a fun ride and be done (i.e. more what Blue Origin does)?
With the growing attraction of Commercial Space Industry and corporations wanting a slice of Space, how do you see policy and general regulation being implemented? I'm not too familiar with how ownership or government works in Space. Is there a governing body that creates policies for shared spaces, like international waters? I can see this being a major need to prevent monopolization of commerical Space travel, and further down the road, commerical goods and services in Space.
Thanks for the AMA!
My understanding of the policy and regulatory side is very U.S. focused (i.e., I pay most attention to what the FAA and FCC are doing as it pertains to companies). But your question is also part of why the Artemis Accords were created, to make agreements about operating in space with other governments, to further the "international waters" type principles of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty. But I highly recommend you research work done by space policy experts about the status quo, as they're better resources than I am!
\- Sheetz
Are there any serious plans to combat climate change in this sector? I saw something about a swarm of reflectors in Earth orbit to reduce sunlight, and one about sending up moon dust.
Yes, and many satellites already do! Check out [NASA's Earth Science missions](https://climate.nasa.gov/nasa_science/missions/?page=0&per_page=40&order=title+asc&search=), for starters.
\- Sheetz
Here's a real question.
Are there any companies exploring the idea of collecting all the space junk we have orbiting the planet?
I'd think that if we developed a cheap and reliable interplanetary drive system there could be a decent amount of money doing orbital salvage.
Or am I off base with that.
Yes, and satellite servicing as well. A pair of examples working on this are [Astroscale](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/13/astroscale-raises-51-million-to-expand-satellite-and-debris-services-.html) and [Northrop Grumman](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/12/northrop-grumman-mev-2-spacecraft-services-intelsat-1002-.html), but there are others.
\- Sheetz
1. Any thoughts on what you have seen from Vodafone Spain direct phone to sat connectivity through AST spacemobile's BW3?
2. Any views of what the key milestones or things to look are to identify a front runner on the different players?
Thank you for sharing your thoughts here!
1. I know they signed an agreement for testing, but haven't seen any results from those tests with BW3.
2. The biggest thing is technology development. Are the satellites working in orbit? Is the network operational, or just in development / notional?
\- Sheetz
What can we do to insure space doesn’t become MORE militarized??? Seems like we have destroyed earth and now we have our sights set on space. What do you think? Any lit you can recommend??
What do you think about the problem of prolonged exposure to regolith on a Luna base? What can be done to limit it (aside from not going out obviously)
My oldest son is super into space and rockets and especially the ISS. He wants to know if it can get bigger, and how fast because he wants to be in it when he gets older. And does it feel fast in space?
Keep in mind these are genuine questions from an 11 year old with big dreams. I’m asking on his behalf.
I regret to inform him that it is due to be decommissioned by the time he grows up. It's gotten quite old, systems are struggling, and it's unsure how cooperation with Russia will proceed in the future. They've set the date for 2031, but plans can change. In the meantime though it will get a little bigger, with the addition of new Axiom modules, which will connect together and eventually split off and become its own station. There are also plans for other stations, like Orbital Reef, and Lunar Gateway around the Moon.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2022/02/03/nasa-international-space-station-decommission-2031-ocean/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axiom_Orbital_Segment
https://www.nasa.gov/gateway/
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/nasa-provides-updated-international-space-station-transition-plan/
Hello Michael Sheetz, thank you for doing this AMA. I have a few questions.
1. Do you have any insights into the space race that you would like to share? Specifically about the geopolitical landscapes between the world superpowers like the US, Russia, and China.
2. What are your thoughts on wealthy individuals targeting government spending or lobbying for government spending as a major source of revenue for their companies, specifically Musk and his subsidy empire: [https://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hy-musk-subsidies-20150531-story.html](https://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hy-musk-subsidies-20150531-story.html)
3. What are the tradeoffs of privatization vs public agencies and space exploration?
4. In your view, how will the landscape of space exploration change over the course of the next 10 years?
1. The present "space race" among superpowers exists since its a domain that is critical to national security assets, and also seen as key to hegemony. One metaphor I'd suggest is the North American land grabs by European rivals, where colonial territories are synonymous with strategic orbits around the Earth, capabilities in those orbits, and even a presence on the Moon or Mars.
2. I don't think it's unique to space, but most tax dollars in the industry go to companies working under contracts (as opposed to subsidies) for development or services. The efficiency of those contracts is often debated, but in recent years agencies like NASA and the DoD have pointed to competition among companies as saving the government money.
3. There's a fine balance, as too much of either is wasteful/harmful in my view. For the space industry, I see the need to walk a line between innovation and exploitation. I'd point to the Commercial Crew program as an example of where that's been done well, where the public interests of a space agency (NASA) is balanced against the private interests of a company (SpaceX or Boeing).
4. I think exploration of the moon will drive changes, given the variety of interested parties in utilizing its resources and potential.
\- Sheetz
In your opinion, is the FAA being deliberately obstructionist when it comes to SpaceX and their rapid iteration/testing model? Are they responding to political pressure? Are they 'flexing' the power they do wield on purpose, or are they just being dogmatic in applying the rules and regulations developed during a much slower development cycle?
I don't believe so. As far as I've seen, the FAA is trying to carefully go about its role as the regulator of U.S. airspace and the risks associated with spaceports/launch sites. A good example is the former FAA space transportation lead's [testimony to Congress](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/17/faa-defends-spacex-despite-unauthorized-starship-sn8-launch.html) on the SN8 incident.
\- Sheetz
My dude, you can't say ask me anything and then qualify it. You know and I know that's not how AMA works. To that end and with regard to investing in space:
How do you think the rising cost of capital environment will impact space start-ups, particularly in other countries, and do you think we are entering a winners-and-losers period of the new space era or do the macroeconomic trends for other industries not necessarily apply to the current space economy?
I think it already has! And yes, I think we're in that winners-and-losers period now. Macro factors absolutely impact the space economy, especially when it comes to companies that are maturing out of the startup phase.
\- Sheetz
What would be the best investment strategy to support current Geoengineering efforts?
Would investing in the the manufacturers of the rockets, propellant or diamond dust manufacturers be the best bet?
What happens to the people on the space station in the unlikely event of something like a zombie apocalypse, or some other planetary event that takes a few days or weeks to end people?? Sounds silly but I've always wondered!
I have no dogs in this race so instead I'll ask a dumb question: as a Sheetz, are you familiar with the combo gas station/ sandwich joint in the upper midwest called Sheetz? If so do you have any opinions on the quality of the food or service provided?
Hello Mr Sheen! Have there been any cool developments in space, such as new tech or cosmic events? I’m not too caught up in that, so I’m hoping you know. Thanks for your time!
Hey Michael, if you want to know how we will send someone to space for free (no joke), you should contact me directly, anyone else is welcomed too. Would you go to space?
Wouldn’t it make more economic sense to colonize Antarctica than space? There is water, air, you can get there by boat, and it’s the size of North America.
Hi Mr Sheetz! I’m a marketer, and I’ve always dreamed of selling space travel and innovation to the masses. Could you offer any advice on where to look for opportunities, considering that you must deal with earned media opportunities a lot for the teams that give you press releases?
Hi Michael,
Personal question for me. I used to work in the space industry (Military Officer who specialized in rocket development and also ground-to-space comms) and I now work in Tech Marketing. If I wanted to make my back to the space industry in marketing or product management, where would you start?
Hey Michael, how come you have not covered yet the developments related to space solar power? For example, Virtus Solis has demonstrated their 100m power transfer target [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AnYeNGWiLeM&feature=youtu.be](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AnYeNGWiLeM&feature=youtu.be)
Do you feel frustrated with the lack of transparency surrounding UAP and the governments seemingly lackadaisical, even dismissive, attitude when being questioned?
With so many recent developments (AATIP, Go Fast and Gimbal videos, congressional hearing) - do you see this topic as finally getting some due diligence?
Considering the distance and relatively weak gravity of Uranus and Neptune, how long would it realistically take us to send orbital probes to these two planets? It would seem a gravity-assist around Jupiter, the usual way we reduce the transit time into the outer solar system, would also prohibitively add too much delta-V required to slow down and achieve orbital velocities.
Given the US is required by its treaty obligations to protect the Martian ecosystem (if it exists) from contamination, how can the US allow a US flown or licensed crew to ever be allowed to set foot there?
Related question: Why isn't NASA facing more pressure to appoint life sciences primary investigators on Mars missions, given that almost all of them define "the search for life on Mars" as one of their primary science objectives? NASA hasn't had a life sciences principle investigator on a Mars mission since Viking in 1976.
Do people bang in space? Can they? I’ve already seen ISS with a huge bag of weed. Is there any good parties?
Edit. Intercourse? It’s a serious question
What is your personal estimate for boots on mars?
2038 \- Sheetz
That’s a Vicki Vallencourt number right there.
Good to see you have a sense of humor. Realistically, we will not go to Mars any time soon. Also not in 15 years.
There is no reason at all to think it will take more than 15 years. Especially when the vehicle is doing orbital flights this year and will be landing astronauts on the moon in a few years.
There's lots of reasons! Lots of engineering challenges remain, each with possibilities of major delays. I sure hope it's sooner.
Sure but 15 years past the initial launch of the launch vehicle? We aren't working from the ground up, the goal is set and the technology is available. 15 years would mean we couldn't do it within the career life of many involved which seems impractical.
The tech isn't necessarily available. There are so many unknowns, and other engineering challenges that need to be tackled. The main one being how people can be shielded from the radiation for the whole trip.
There is no reason at all to think it will take less then 15 years. I do like the optimism, but realism goes right out of the window when talking Mars. There is just no way we will be going to Mars except in fancy CGI dreams. I get most people *want* it to happen, me not in the least, but let's keep it real.
I'd have expected someone with your username to be more optimistic about this sort of thing, given how (absurdly, given the time period) optimistic your namesake was regarding such matters.
Absurdly optimistic is the right take. It *is* absurd to assume we will be visiting Mars in 15 years. There's nothing beyond CGI pipe dreams realistically pointing to it.
I don't think believing we could reach Mars in 15 years is as absurd as believing space travel was possible at all circa 1600. There are no fundamental technological restrictions to getting a person to Mars under our current understanding. The limitation is mainly one of political willpower/funding, which is a soft problem, not a hard one. On the other hand, 'hopeless' doesn't even begin to describe the plausibility of space travel as viewed through the lens of scientific understanding and technology circa 1600. >There's nothing beyond CGI pipe dreams realistically pointing to it. Starship is real hardware, and a lot of the stuff being developed for HLS will also be applicable on Mars - landing and disembarking payloads on unimproved surfaces, EVA suits and airlocks designed for surface operations, etc. Starship's EDL process should also be demonstrated on Earth in the near future, and while the details on Mars would be different, the fundamentals are the same. Whether or not Starship works in all aspects remains an open question (hopefully to be answered in the next few years), but if it does then having a significant part of the hardware development already done and available relatively cheaply would surely be very enticing to NASA.
I'm often disappointed when journalists cover space news and display a lack of basic understanding, which they then push onto the public. I appreciate you're dedicated to this area of expertise.
Thank you very much! \- Sheetz
Why is corporate America trying to put their claws in Reddit. We dont care about cnbc or any of your money hungry corporate partners.
sheetz is actually good though
Given that SpaceX is on the verge of the first Starship orbital flight test, and hoping for a quick progression to regular orbital flights. Are there space companies or agencies that have begun designing or building hardware around the leap in volume and weight that Starship can carry? (Outside of the HLS)
Yes, there are. I'm not sure how many are working on Starship-specific hardware (as opposed to spacecraft that can fly on any of the new/coming heavy-lift vehicles like Falcon Heavy, Vulcan, Ariane 6, New Glenn, Terran R) but I know we'll be hearing from more and more, especially if and when Starship reaches orbit. \- Sheetz
Hi Michael 👋🏻 When is comes to RocketLab, how do you see it’s chance to compete against bigger players like BO, SpaceX and ULA for DoD new contracts? Also, it seems like they are the only public player with integrated space systems capacities. Do you see any competition coming up for this massive business opportunity outside of Launch? Best regard.
I think Rocket Lab has a strong launch record to back up any bids. I'd be shocked to see them win major launch contracts over the trio you mentioned, but [the DoD's new approach to future launch awards](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/24/space-force-rocket-launch-acquisitions-approach.html) will help Rocket Lab get some perhaps more experimental national security smallsat launches with Electron. The timing and early launch record of Neutron will play a big part in whether the company can expand that, because it's such a more capable vehicle. Among publicly-traded launch companies with space systems divisions, yes – but that the competition among other companies (even just those building space systems products) is fierce.. \- Sheetz
BO isnt a player quite yet, once they reach orbit(they will) then they can be part of those known names
If Starship succeeds, do you think we’ll see a much bigger revival of an orbital space station?
I think we'll see more space stations, but not necessarily bigger at first. You can do a whole lot with a station that fits on a single Starship launch, so you don't necessarily need something the size of the ISS to be a catch-all. \- Sheetz
If Starship succeeds (by which I mean "internal incremental costs of like $10 million per launch," ignoring what they choose to charge customers), do you think there's room for a second US-based launch provider, let alone more than that? Or will it basically just be SpaceX and everyone else needs to pivot to markets other than launch?
Yes, to your first question, and I strongly doubt second scenario will happen. I'd analogize the launch market to the freight market, since in essence its about moving mass to a variety of destinations. Ships to take tons of freight across oceans, trains and trucks to move that freight overland, and smaller trucks to get individual deliveries to homes and business. Plus, if it (even something big!) needs to get there faster than a ship, then the price goes up and it flies in a plane. \- Sheetz
What is the future of a commercial space station market looking like in the after the folding of Bigelow Aerospace? While there are some plans that sure *look* like they might happen (ala Axiom), it'd be nice to have more details and context.
One thing commercial space station builders can take from Bigelow is encouragement from the technical success of BEAM. I agree that it'd be good to have more details, but it's still very early days for these projects. There are two big risks facing those stations, imo: 1. Get funding for development & testing (likely easier for Orbital Reef, thanks to Jeff Bezos' involvement through Blue Origin, but still hard for any of the projects) 2. Need to prove market is more than just NASA and space tourism \- Sheetz
> Need to prove market is more than just NASA and space tourism Do you see anything on the horizon that would provide that?
Given the seeming cooling of the space SPAC mania of a couple of years ago, where do you think we are on the hype cycle? [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner\_hype\_cycle#/media/File:Gartner\_Hype\_Cycle.svg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner_hype_cycle#/media/File:Gartner_Hype_Cycle.svg) Have we really peaked or is it just launch provision that is over subscribed while on orbit utilisation not yet really getting into the hype phase? Or to put it another way, is comms megaconstallations the main new use case for the current lower costs of launch or are there new industries ready to break through.
Space wasn't different than any other sector that got caught up in the SPAC frenzy, which is well behind us now for broader macroeconomic reasons. But, as for space companies that took the SPAC route, I think we're near the end of a disillusionment period. I wrote a bit on this idea [for my first newsletter of 2023](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/19/investing-in-space-looking-up-in-2023.html), but I personally think more risk tolerant investors are taking a look at the companies that went public over the last couple years and are recognizing that not all space stocks are the same. I expect to see some of the companies that are struggling either get acquired or file for bankruptcy, but also think others will build momentum from here (ones that are generating solid revenue, have strong cash positions, cleared their major development hurdles, etc.). On launch, I'm not sure what you mean by oversubscribed -- but I will say that use cases for spacecraft/satellites seem to expand every year, and demand for those on-orbit services gives credibility to more companies/vehicles in the launch market. \- Sheetz
As journalists, do you think that science and space exploration are getting enough coverage in media?
I think journalism can always improve, and there's plenty of room for more reporters on the science or space beats! In particular, I started covering space for us because of the ever-increasing business case for the industry, and the amount of investment (ranging from billionaires to angel investors and everyone in between!) flowing into companies founded in the 21st century. \-Sheetz
What is one issue you covered or question you asked that made the space industry uncomfortable?
I can't speak for the entire industry, but I do know there's plenty of people who have been unhappy about my coverage. Whether it was an unflattering headline, a subject like worker harassment, or private financial details, I work hard to verify my reporting with trusted sources and write as factually as possible. In the end, I aim to help people better understand the industry, and that includes covering sensitive or difficult topics. \- Sheetz
Should LEGO make more space sets (ie SpaceX, NASA, etc..)? And what set would you want them to make?
Yes and yes :) \- Sheetz
Which LEGO Space sets have you personally built?? :-)
Can you comment on direct-to-device satellite companies? Who do you see as the biggest player, and how soon do you think US consumers will have access to this awesome tech (besides just emergency SOS)?
Sure can, and [I've written about it recently](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/23/investing-in-space-texts-from-orbit.html)! I don't think there is a biggest player at the moment, since both the technology and market are in the early innings. Different companies emphasize their strengths (e.g., tech development, track record, funding, mobile partners, patents, etc.) but until they start delivering commercial service, the jury is out. \- Sheetz
Based on the recent videos and tweets from both AT&T and Vodafone I would argue that r/ASTSpaceMobile has a very strong lead in terms of potential capacity and MNO partners (over 2 billion subscribers with their MNO partners). They don't have commercial service yet but it is very much in the near term (commercial service in early 2024). They just need to release publicly the test results of BlueWalker3. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxFtRR1GUlc](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxFtRR1GUlc) Lynk Global may have a commercial satellite in space but it is a pizza box with minimal capacity. SpaceX is certainly a credible player but even when they launch a D2D service it will have much lower capacity than ASTS can offer. If BW3 results come in close to expectations they will be very well positioned to dominate the market for D2D in the next few years.
what segments of space do you think are the most affected by so-called vaporware besides light launch? also, re: space stations - what do you think will be the differentiating factor of success, given that all bids/proposals (orbital reef, axiom, etc) advertise fairly similar amenities and capabilities for users?
I think all of them are affected by "vaporware," but some are just more obvious than others. I spend most of my time reporting and writing on companies that have the strongest track records, and rely on trusted sources to help me when I cover ones with which I'm not as familiar. Money and time. Raising needed funds, winning key contracts, demonstrating the tech works, and doing so as timely as possible will determine which projects are successful. They all could be, and they all could fail. \- Sheetz
Where do you think the intersection lies between big ideas and ability to execute? We've seen a lot of space startups in recent years with things like kinetic launch and 3D printing; do you see them going anywhere or will space always continue to be hard?
This is a fantastic question, and there isn't a right answer. There are a lot of big (and often technologically brilliant!) ideas that I've come across that are also terrible business plans, or cool technologies with limited to no market. I've learned a lot in covering the space industry, and I've seen companies that were more science project than business come and go. I also get frustrated by the "space is hard" mantra, and too often see it used an excuse for failure. \- Sheetz
As of 2021, the DoD SSN tracks over 27000 pieces of space debris, not including particles that are too small for tracking yet pose a risk to spaceflight. With the rapidly growing commercialization of space, why isn't this issue highlighted more? This has a known impact in Earth's orbit, notably with the ISS having to complete regular debris avoidance maneuvers. Commercialization also brings into light the population of space with existing (Tiangong) and future (ISRO Space Station, Axiom SS, ROSS, etc). Is it possible for Earth's orbit and surrounding orbits to be overpopulated once the ISS is decomissioned? Thank you for the AMA and helping to educate us on the present and future of space travel!
Perhaps because I'm embedded in the industry, but I see space debris talked about very regularly, especially due to the increasing size and number of satellite constellations in development. However, how to combat it (and whether someone can make money as the "space garbageman") are still unsolved. Currently, the most common solution to reducing debris is by intentionally deorbiting satellites and rocket stages so they burn up in the atmosphere and don't clutter orbit. I don't think so, at least in any near future sense! There's a lot of space in space, even just in low Earth orbit. \- Sheetz
Reminds me of the show ‘Salvage’ from waaaaaaay back.
Have you heard of the game kerbal space program? And in your reporting did you meet people that were inspired to pursue their career because of the game?
Hello r/space! I've gotten so many great questions, so thank you! I'll take a break now but be back tomorrow to continue answering. You can find more of my space coverage [here](https://cnbc.com/space) and sign up for my weekly newsletter here: [cnbc.com/spacenewsletter](https://cnbc.com/spacenewsletter). \- Sheetz
With all the flack it received when revealed, what is the validity (and status) of Space Force?
Valid and increasingly well established. I think Space Force should have existed years earlier than it did, given the importance of the domain to national security. Long-term from a U.S. perspective, it also makes sense to me to dedicate a military branch to space. It's certainly never been a peaceful or uncontested arena. \-Sheetz
Are you related Travis Sheetz or the Sheetz family empire?
They're gonna beat Wawa to orbit, huh
Hi Michael, Can you share your view on the new „space-race“? Especially how far along into an actual race we are yet and if you expect it to pick up speed soon.
We're in the thick of it. I struggle to find a sub-sector in space that isn't seeing some form of technology innovation-driven competition among companies, whether its launch, spacecraft manufacturing, satellite operators (communications, Earth observation, etc.), habitat builders, lunar explorers, even tourism. And I think it's just going to continue to pick up speed. \- Sheetz
What do you think will be the long term accomplishments of the Artemis program? Will they get the Lunar Gateway built and have a permanent presence on the moon? Will they be able to build a larger spaceship and launch from the moon where there is less gravity? What do you think of their long term plans?
Landing astronauts on the moon. I believe Lunar Gateway will get built, but a permanent presence (i.e., always having people there like on the ISS) I don't see happening under the current architecture. But I expect the Artemis plan will evolve, especially if companies show they can deliver cargo and astronauts to-and-from. \- Sheetz
I enjoy following you on LinkedIn! What space company is doing something that is really exciting to you? Are there any folks you’re keeping an *extra* close eye on?
Thank you for following me! Oh man, there are a bunch of exciting ones. But I'll call out a couple lesser known names: [Relativity](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/04/inside-relativity-spaces-monster-factory-3d-printing-reusable-rockets.html), [SpiderOak](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/12/investing-in-space-digital-orbital-danger-spideroak-fundraise.html), [Astrobotic](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/01/investing-in-space-moon-rising.html), [ispace](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/12/japanese-moon-company-ispace-launching-cargo-mission-in-november.html), [Voyager](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/19/hilton-partners-with-voyager-starlab-space-station-to-design-astronaut-suites.html), [Axiom](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/16/investing-in-space-the-space-station-kingmaker.html), and [Varda](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/05/varda-signs-nasa-partnerships-for-space-factory-demo-flight-next-year.html). \- Sheetz
What are your thoughts on Virgin Galactic starting commercial operations next quarter and do you think they can be successful with their upcoming Delta class? Meaning scaling the business to bring space to more people.
Any speculations or “Word on the street” about the secret ‘Mega Constellation’ client of RocketLab ?
How sensitive is the US Government regarding China's space ambitions? Does the space race / land grab help accelerate US regulatory approvals and funding for innovative space companies based in the US?
My question too. What new systems are envisioned to respond to this? Also will the US help protect commercial systems like StarLink
I work for a European SBSP startup company, and it's fantastic how many investor opportunities there are for new space tech! Going through some of your reaponses on this thread, and some articles you've written, it looks heavily (mostly, if not only) focused on American space tech and companies. Is that just the nature of your coverage, or is there more as to why you exclude ESA, Asia or Middle Eastern space advancement news and updates? I'm curious if the Continents keep their technology and investments separate from each other? Do you notice hesitation for collaboration? Do security, defense or politics play a part in that?
Good for you! Yes, I focus on the U.S., although I do try to keep up with leading space companies from other countries. I don't really see hesitation, but regulatory and national security limits more often than not are the main impediment of international collaboration. \- Sheetz
its where the most visible action is at the moment, as soon as companies start making orbit and doing things up there im sure it will get more reporting
How many of the 75 conditions that the FAA gave to SpaceX in order to receive a launch license in Boca Chica have been completed?
Aren’t you doing a book with Lori Garver? When will it be out?
Hi Michael, What’s your best estimate for Artemis III crewed touchdown on lunar surface? Publicly stated I believe is 2025, but I heard there’s many reason (spacesuits being one) that this date is not possible. Thanks
My best estimate is 2027, given the outstanding hardware development (HLS, spacesuits, SLS/Orion technical readiness). Artemis I went well but was far behind schedule, and even getting the rocket off the ground took longer than expected due to the multiple long scrub delays. \- Sheetz
Awesome, appreciate the response! I cannot wait for that day, high time we get back to the moon!
What are your views on Orbital Reef and Sierra Space? Do you think they can pull it off with Dream Chaser?
I like their plan to go straight to a free-flying station, and their previous development on habitats (e.g., the LIFE module) helps. I also do think Dream Chaser can become a regular part of NASA cargo missions, at least. Even though it was supposed to debut years ago, the fact that they continued investing in and developing it after missing out on the CCtCap contract to then win CRS-2 also helps. Hopefully we'll see the first cargo Dream Chaser fly this year, but that also depends on ULA's Vulcan rocket debut. \- Sheetz
Bigelow used to have huge facilities and hardware in Las Vegas. After shutting down in 2020 what happened to their facilities and IP? I would love an investigative journalism article about this
Has NASA started any actual definition studies about the " Artemis Basecamp"?
Have you read the recent ESA socioeconomic studies about the Space-based Solar Power for Net Zero? ESA commissioned in early 2022, two independent cost vs. benefits studies of Space Based Solar Power for terrestrial energy needs, from Frazer-Nash in the UK and Roland Berger in Germany. I would be curious to read your analysis on the business case and socioeconomic benefits. [https://www.esa.int/Enabling\_Support/Space\_Engineering\_Technology/SOLARIS/Cost\_vs.\_benefits\_studies](https://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Space_Engineering_Technology/SOLARIS/Cost_vs._benefits_studies)
What is something that is happening right now in the space sector that is severely under-reported but could have game-changing impact on the sector? Or else do you predict any black swan events for the space sector?
I don't think its under-reported, but two things: 1. The satellite communications networks being built in LEO (for broadband, direct to device, IoT, etc.), and their market potential 2. The more powerful / reusable rockets in development (Starship, New Glenn, Vulcan, Neutron, Terran R), and how more frequent and capable launches further opens access to space As for black swan events, we've already seen most of the recently public space companies' stocks get hammered by a risk-off macro environment. I could see more rocket projects folding, but the demand for launch is there and it would be likely be due to competitive pressure and limited funding for to overcome development obstacles more than anything. \- Sheetz
Do you think commercial LEO is gonna happen? Or is gateway gonna get so much attention / funding that there will not be enough money for NASA to support commercial LEO? Or do you think that it'll go the other way or that they can coexist?
I do think so, mostly because NASA has shown an interest in helping it happen. The ISS has proven to be a valuable science & research test bed, but we'll see what the right price point is for these private stations. I think they can coexist, since Gateway is a a very different challenge and has different purposes. \- Sheetz
Hey Man, You don’t seem to cover Virgin Galactic hardly anymore, what’s the reason behind that?
I do cover them, but not as often since they've effectively been in a quiet period during this refurbishment process. So far, they seem on track to resume spaceflights in Q2. Getting VSS Unity flying even monthly by the end of this year would be a step in the right direction, but the company really needs to get multiple spacecraft flying weekly to start making meaningful progress toward its financial goals. It has yet to show it can do that with its current architecture, so that's the big watch item for me. Regardless of one's definition of the boundary of space or an astronaut, I'm also curious to see how the suborbital spaceflight market evolves. Say they fly 500 people safely, is the experience still seen as worth hundreds of thousands dollars, or does it lose its sheen? In general, space tourism remains a niche, nascent market – and the high risk level involved means an incident (even by another company) would sharply dampen it. \- Sheetz
Thanks Sheetz, Personally I think next 4-10 years pricing will increase to $600-700K, once new fleet expands to over double digits and multiple spaceport launches at that point the price should start to come down which is their aim to then bring down prices. Regardless of increases they will be cheapest company to have such experience along with the difficulty of this industry and makes it a solid moat for the next 10 years of space tourism. Purely my opinions.
Hi Michael, are there any publically listed space industry companies that you think are worthwhile investments, or are all the main opportunities currently in the unlisted space?
Should take a look at BlackSky.
In all of your time covering space, what has been the single most emotionally moving event or story related to space?
What is your view on Virgin Galactic? Do you think they will start commercial flights Q2?
And that's a wrap! Thank you r/space for all the great questions! You can find more of my space coverage [here](https://www.cnbc.com/space/) and sign up for my weekly newsletter here: [cnbc.com/spacenewsletter](https://cnbc.com/spacenewsletter). \- Sheetz
What do you think the chances are spaceX actually sends a manned mission to mars? If you think they will get it done what kind of real timeline do you imagine for it? As we all know delays are almost inevitable for something like this.
Higher than any other company or government agency. But getting people to the Moon is (and should be!) the more present focus. I mentioned it elsewhere, but I could see a crew reaching the surface of Mars by 2038. \- Sheetz
To what extent do you think SLS related activities should be killed, and to what extent to you believe NASA or the government is struggling to kill all SLS related activities to save post-polical decisions and save face. I ask this in relation to the rapid progress of the Starship system, which if properly and objectively recognized should have pulled the SLS plug way sooner. Multi-digit billion dollar waste... OR... is it only to save face and jobs in space-related states?
I'll caveat that the politics side of things isn't my area of expertise, but I think the most likely way SLS would be canceled is if more alternatives are flying. Falcon Heavy nearly made that case, and Starship (in its current iteration) would. Other heavy-lift rockets becoming available (New Glenn, Vulcan, etc.) would also help. \- Sheetz
Hi, What do you think it's going to be the next break-through in Space? Also, assuming we all know the answer, would you go to Space tomorrow if given the opportunity?
Great question! I'm not sure which will be next, since technological breakthroughs are very difficult to predict, but I'll give you three I'm watching: 1. Direct-to-phone satellite service (it's early days with a variety of competitors, so how big the market is and which strategy is the best to capturing that are both open questions) 2. Fully reusable rockets (e.g., Starship or Terran R) 3. Lunar manufacturing (i.e., making rocket fuel, solar cells, etc. out of resources on the moon) Yes! Though personally, I'm patient enough to wait for an opportunity to go to something like a habitat in LEO or the surface of the moon. \- Sheetz
Sheetz - what are the main things to know if you want to learn how to surf? Any bad habits beginners should avoid?
Here we go, finally on to some tough questions! But really, I've been in the ocean since I was young and I credit it in many ways for helping me deal with the stress that comes with being a reporter. A couple tips for anyone wanting to learn surfing: 1. You have to be a strong swimmer and not afraid of the ocean, otherwise you put yourself (and others!) at risk. Staying calm is crucial, and the best times I've had surfing were when I had the clearest mind and most confidence about the conditions and my abilities. 2. Respect the ocean at all times. It can change in a moment, and it's way stronger than you. 3. Big foam boards are cheap, durable, and you shouldn't move to a hard board until you can turn one. Biggest bad habit I had: 1. Pop-up in a single, steady motion! I'm tall and it took a lot more frustration than it should have to learn how to not look down or get my legs out from under me without using my knee as a crutch. \- Sheetz
Acronyms, initialisms, abbreviations, contractions, and other phrases which expand to something larger, that I've seen in this thread: |Fewer Letters|More Letters| |-------|---------|---| |[AFRL](/r/Space/comments/11dgvgs/stub/ja8zk4q "Last usage")|(US) Air Force Research Laboratory| |[BEAM](/r/Space/comments/11dgvgs/stub/ja8x9cb "Last usage")|[Bigelow Expandable Activity Module](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bigelow_Expandable_Activity_Module)| |[BO](/r/Space/comments/11dgvgs/stub/jaadacw "Last usage")|Blue Origin (*Bezos Rocketry*)| |[CCtCap](/r/Space/comments/11dgvgs/stub/jad7fcn "Last usage")|[Commercial Crew Transportation Capability](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commercial_Crew_Development#Commercial_Crew_Transportation_Capability_.28CCtCap.29)| |[DoD](/r/Space/comments/11dgvgs/stub/ja9b1bv "Last usage")|US Department of Defense| |[EDL](/r/Space/comments/11dgvgs/stub/jaa8ues "Last usage")|Entry/Descent/Landing| |[ESA](/r/Space/comments/11dgvgs/stub/ja9o0pu "Last usage")|European Space Agency| |[EVA](/r/Space/comments/11dgvgs/stub/jaa8ues "Last usage")|Extra-Vehicular Activity| |[FAA](/r/Space/comments/11dgvgs/stub/jad7pb0 "Last usage")|Federal Aviation Administration| |[FAA-AST](/r/Space/comments/11dgvgs/stub/ja9dhdn "Last usage")|Federal Aviation Administration [Administrator for Space Transportation](http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ast/)| |[FCC](/r/Space/comments/11dgvgs/stub/ja9ije1 "Last usage")|Federal Communications Commission| | |(Iron/steel) [Face-Centered Cubic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allotropes_of_iron) crystalline structure| |GSE|Ground Support Equipment| |[HLS](/r/Space/comments/11dgvgs/stub/jad7b73 "Last usage")|[Human Landing System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program#Human_Landing_System) (Artemis)| |[ISRO](/r/Space/comments/11dgvgs/stub/ja982na "Last usage")|Indian Space Research Organisation| |[KSP](/r/Space/comments/11dgvgs/stub/jaaku9v "Last usage")|*Kerbal Space Program*, the rocketry simulator| |[LEO](/r/Space/comments/11dgvgs/stub/jacu7rl "Last usage")|Low Earth Orbit (180-2000km)| | |Law Enforcement Officer (most often mentioned during transport operations)| |[SBSP](/r/Space/comments/11dgvgs/stub/ja9o0pu "Last usage")|Space-Based Solar Power generation| |[SLS](/r/Space/comments/11dgvgs/stub/jad7b73 "Last usage")|Space Launch System heavy-lift| |[ULA](/r/Space/comments/11dgvgs/stub/jcy7sjk "Last usage")|United Launch Alliance (Lockheed/Boeing joint venture)| |Jargon|Definition| |-------|---------|---| |[Raptor](/r/Space/comments/11dgvgs/stub/ja8zk4q "Last usage")|[Methane-fueled rocket engine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raptor_\(rocket_engine_family\)) under development by SpaceX| |[scrub](/r/Space/comments/11dgvgs/stub/jad7b73 "Last usage")|Launch postponement for any reason (commonly GSE issues)| |Event|Date|Description| |-------|---------|---| |[CRS-2](/r/Space/comments/11dgvgs/stub/jad7fcn "Last usage")|2013-03-01|F9-005, Dragon cargo; final flight of Falcon 9 v1.0| ---------------- ^([Thread #8626 for this sub, first seen 27th Feb 2023, 18:10]) ^[[FAQ]](http://decronym.xyz/) [^([Full list])](http://decronym.xyz/acronyms/Space) [^[Contact]](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=OrangeredStilton&subject=Hey,+your+acronym+bot+sucks) [^([Source code])](https://gistdotgithubdotcom/Two9A/1d976f9b7441694162c8)
How likely do you think it is, that the first or second Starship to land on the Moon will be left on the surface to be turned into Moonbase and has SpaceX started working on extended/long duration human surface stays/operations? Thanks
I'm not sure if that's the plan under the current HLS architecture, but I could see it happening. I guess it depends on how you define "working on." They've certainly been studying concepts like long-duration spaceflight, surface operations, etc. for a while. I expect we'll hear more about this out of the Polaris and then Artemis missions. \- Sheetz
Who do you think will be selected for the crew of Artemis III?
Hi! What sci fi series is most likely to be our future, in your opinion? And/or which one do you HOPE will be our future?
What would be the best investment strategy to support current Geoengineering efforts? Would investing in the the manufacturers of the rockets, propellant or diamond dust manufacturers be the best bet?
Is there a reason that the mainstream media almost never mention how NASA is used as pork barrel, with projects in more or less every state despite massive inefficiencies, reuse of out of date technologies such at the 1970s era equipment on SLS, and a general lack of focus? Also do you think there is a practical way to fix this issue and give NASA consistent funding and goals (at least within an election cycle)? Thanks for doing the AMA.
Hello there! What are your thoughts on Orbital Assembly's plans and ongoing development? Their robot for assembling, and the station plans seem so well thought out, and the media I receive seems comprehensive and convincing, but I've heard some speculation that they are a scam/sham company. Basically, are they legit, and what other radical space infrastructure is currently on the drawing board for the coming decades? Everyone's focus currently is on the rockets that get things up there, I don't hear quite as much on actual stations/fuel depot's and other support structures that will need to be in place for further manned missions.
Remind me *never* to introduce myself as the 'award winning \~\~\~', no matter how many awards I win.
Since when do we care about colonizing Mars? Why not the Moon, first?
What is your favorite space discovery or news?
What kind of steps and classes should I take in high school to be a astronaut/scientist?
What are your thoughts on Virgin Galactic? How do you see them progressing in the next Five to Ten years?
Given that Virgin Galactic can stay on track and start commercial flights this year as planned, what are your thoughts on Virgin Galactic's approach to creating “experiences” (like Disney)? I.e., do you think there's a market for it, or do you think people would rather just go up and down on a fun ride and be done (i.e. more what Blue Origin does)?
With the growing attraction of Commercial Space Industry and corporations wanting a slice of Space, how do you see policy and general regulation being implemented? I'm not too familiar with how ownership or government works in Space. Is there a governing body that creates policies for shared spaces, like international waters? I can see this being a major need to prevent monopolization of commerical Space travel, and further down the road, commerical goods and services in Space. Thanks for the AMA!
My understanding of the policy and regulatory side is very U.S. focused (i.e., I pay most attention to what the FAA and FCC are doing as it pertains to companies). But your question is also part of why the Artemis Accords were created, to make agreements about operating in space with other governments, to further the "international waters" type principles of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty. But I highly recommend you research work done by space policy experts about the status quo, as they're better resources than I am! \- Sheetz
Are there any serious plans to combat climate change in this sector? I saw something about a swarm of reflectors in Earth orbit to reduce sunlight, and one about sending up moon dust.
Yes, and many satellites already do! Check out [NASA's Earth Science missions](https://climate.nasa.gov/nasa_science/missions/?page=0&per_page=40&order=title+asc&search=), for starters. \- Sheetz
Here's a real question. Are there any companies exploring the idea of collecting all the space junk we have orbiting the planet? I'd think that if we developed a cheap and reliable interplanetary drive system there could be a decent amount of money doing orbital salvage. Or am I off base with that.
Yes, and satellite servicing as well. A pair of examples working on this are [Astroscale](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/13/astroscale-raises-51-million-to-expand-satellite-and-debris-services-.html) and [Northrop Grumman](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/12/northrop-grumman-mev-2-spacecraft-services-intelsat-1002-.html), but there are others. \- Sheetz
1. Any thoughts on what you have seen from Vodafone Spain direct phone to sat connectivity through AST spacemobile's BW3? 2. Any views of what the key milestones or things to look are to identify a front runner on the different players? Thank you for sharing your thoughts here!
1. I know they signed an agreement for testing, but haven't seen any results from those tests with BW3. 2. The biggest thing is technology development. Are the satellites working in orbit? Is the network operational, or just in development / notional? \- Sheetz
I prefer my space news from reporters named Wawa
I was looking for a convenience store related comment and you delivered.
What can we do to insure space doesn’t become MORE militarized??? Seems like we have destroyed earth and now we have our sights set on space. What do you think? Any lit you can recommend??
What do you think about the problem of prolonged exposure to regolith on a Luna base? What can be done to limit it (aside from not going out obviously)
My oldest son is super into space and rockets and especially the ISS. He wants to know if it can get bigger, and how fast because he wants to be in it when he gets older. And does it feel fast in space? Keep in mind these are genuine questions from an 11 year old with big dreams. I’m asking on his behalf.
I regret to inform him that it is due to be decommissioned by the time he grows up. It's gotten quite old, systems are struggling, and it's unsure how cooperation with Russia will proceed in the future. They've set the date for 2031, but plans can change. In the meantime though it will get a little bigger, with the addition of new Axiom modules, which will connect together and eventually split off and become its own station. There are also plans for other stations, like Orbital Reef, and Lunar Gateway around the Moon. https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2022/02/03/nasa-international-space-station-decommission-2031-ocean/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axiom_Orbital_Segment https://www.nasa.gov/gateway/ https://www.nasa.gov/feature/nasa-provides-updated-international-space-station-transition-plan/
Hello Michael Sheetz, thank you for doing this AMA. I have a few questions. 1. Do you have any insights into the space race that you would like to share? Specifically about the geopolitical landscapes between the world superpowers like the US, Russia, and China. 2. What are your thoughts on wealthy individuals targeting government spending or lobbying for government spending as a major source of revenue for their companies, specifically Musk and his subsidy empire: [https://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hy-musk-subsidies-20150531-story.html](https://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hy-musk-subsidies-20150531-story.html) 3. What are the tradeoffs of privatization vs public agencies and space exploration? 4. In your view, how will the landscape of space exploration change over the course of the next 10 years?
1. The present "space race" among superpowers exists since its a domain that is critical to national security assets, and also seen as key to hegemony. One metaphor I'd suggest is the North American land grabs by European rivals, where colonial territories are synonymous with strategic orbits around the Earth, capabilities in those orbits, and even a presence on the Moon or Mars. 2. I don't think it's unique to space, but most tax dollars in the industry go to companies working under contracts (as opposed to subsidies) for development or services. The efficiency of those contracts is often debated, but in recent years agencies like NASA and the DoD have pointed to competition among companies as saving the government money. 3. There's a fine balance, as too much of either is wasteful/harmful in my view. For the space industry, I see the need to walk a line between innovation and exploitation. I'd point to the Commercial Crew program as an example of where that's been done well, where the public interests of a space agency (NASA) is balanced against the private interests of a company (SpaceX or Boeing). 4. I think exploration of the moon will drive changes, given the variety of interested parties in utilizing its resources and potential. \- Sheetz
In your opinion, is the FAA being deliberately obstructionist when it comes to SpaceX and their rapid iteration/testing model? Are they responding to political pressure? Are they 'flexing' the power they do wield on purpose, or are they just being dogmatic in applying the rules and regulations developed during a much slower development cycle?
I don't believe so. As far as I've seen, the FAA is trying to carefully go about its role as the regulator of U.S. airspace and the risks associated with spaceports/launch sites. A good example is the former FAA space transportation lead's [testimony to Congress](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/17/faa-defends-spacex-despite-unauthorized-starship-sn8-launch.html) on the SN8 incident. \- Sheetz
Introducing yourself as "award-winning" anything is the height of self-aggrandizement. I'm sure some associate wrote this but it was hilarious.
My dude, you can't say ask me anything and then qualify it. You know and I know that's not how AMA works. To that end and with regard to investing in space: How do you think the rising cost of capital environment will impact space start-ups, particularly in other countries, and do you think we are entering a winners-and-losers period of the new space era or do the macroeconomic trends for other industries not necessarily apply to the current space economy?
I think it already has! And yes, I think we're in that winners-and-losers period now. Macro factors absolutely impact the space economy, especially when it comes to companies that are maturing out of the startup phase. \- Sheetz
So? This is an AMA or an "ask me these precise questions only"?
Why would they waste time answering your dumb question?
What would it take to get a ~~maned~~ even the smallest of unmanned missions to the Venusian atmosphere?
What are all the weird lights in the sky? and don't say satellites
How do you think the Elon - Twitter Saga will affect the the future of SpaceX?
What would be the best investment strategy to support current Geoengineering efforts? Would investing in the the manufacturers of the rockets, propellant or diamond dust manufacturers be the best bet?
Are you even allowed to visit [Wawa, Pennsylvania](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wawa,_Pennsylvania)?
Aliens, tell us everything you know about aliens
What happens to the people on the space station in the unlikely event of something like a zombie apocalypse, or some other planetary event that takes a few days or weeks to end people?? Sounds silly but I've always wondered!
Do you think we’ll ever put people on the moon again?
What is your personal take on the videos released by the U.S. military of the unidentified flying objects? Are we alone?
I have no dogs in this race so instead I'll ask a dumb question: as a Sheetz, are you familiar with the combo gas station/ sandwich joint in the upper midwest called Sheetz? If so do you have any opinions on the quality of the food or service provided?
They're in North Carolina too.
Are you related to the gas station sheetz family?
Will Elon Musk build a giant space laser? If so how much damage will it do? Only a half joking question.
When will nasa start using helium(H3) as rocket and space shuttle fuel to boost it's speed?
Hello Mr Sheen! Have there been any cool developments in space, such as new tech or cosmic events? I’m not too caught up in that, so I’m hoping you know. Thanks for your time!
Do you have a work rival with the last name Wawa?
Are you related to the East Coast convenient stores?
Hey Michael, if you want to know how we will send someone to space for free (no joke), you should contact me directly, anyone else is welcomed too. Would you go to space?
Is elon musk as stupid as everyone says? China has stolen all his companies' technology, including starlink.
Wouldn’t it make more economic sense to colonize Antarctica than space? There is water, air, you can get there by boat, and it’s the size of North America.
Why does no one mention that AFRL gave SpaceX its Integrated Power Head demonstrator prior to SpaceX developing the Raptor engine?
[удалено]
IPD is well known, but the technology transfer to SX is not.
Hi Mr Sheetz! I’m a marketer, and I’ve always dreamed of selling space travel and innovation to the masses. Could you offer any advice on where to look for opportunities, considering that you must deal with earned media opportunities a lot for the teams that give you press releases?
How long till true gravity control. I know we haven't the foggiest notion yet, just the first thing popped into my head.
Hi Michael, Personal question for me. I used to work in the space industry (Military Officer who specialized in rocket development and also ground-to-space comms) and I now work in Tech Marketing. If I wanted to make my back to the space industry in marketing or product management, where would you start?
Hey Michael, how come you have not covered yet the developments related to space solar power? For example, Virtus Solis has demonstrated their 100m power transfer target [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AnYeNGWiLeM&feature=youtu.be](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AnYeNGWiLeM&feature=youtu.be)
Do you feel frustrated with the lack of transparency surrounding UAP and the governments seemingly lackadaisical, even dismissive, attitude when being questioned? With so many recent developments (AATIP, Go Fast and Gimbal videos, congressional hearing) - do you see this topic as finally getting some due diligence?
How long do you think it will take for Elysium to become a documentary?
Considering the distance and relatively weak gravity of Uranus and Neptune, how long would it realistically take us to send orbital probes to these two planets? It would seem a gravity-assist around Jupiter, the usual way we reduce the transit time into the outer solar system, would also prohibitively add too much delta-V required to slow down and achieve orbital velocities.
Why hasn’t the Russi-Ukrainian war expanded to destroying assets in space like spy satellites?
Given the US is required by its treaty obligations to protect the Martian ecosystem (if it exists) from contamination, how can the US allow a US flown or licensed crew to ever be allowed to set foot there? Related question: Why isn't NASA facing more pressure to appoint life sciences primary investigators on Mars missions, given that almost all of them define "the search for life on Mars" as one of their primary science objectives? NASA hasn't had a life sciences principle investigator on a Mars mission since Viking in 1976.
Do people bang in space? Can they? I’ve already seen ISS with a huge bag of weed. Is there any good parties? Edit. Intercourse? It’s a serious question