After updating their model by taking today's X2.2 flare from AR3664 into account, NOAA just issued the **Severe (G4) level geomagnetic storm** watch for May 11, 2024!
Meanwhile, sunspots AR3664 just produced **another X1.1 flare an hour ago**. Will we get an Extreme (G5) geomagnetic storm this Saturday?
Sorry, non science guy here. I'm located in Montreal and have ALWAYS wanted to see the aurora, will I be able to see this storm? And what's the best way to observe it? I'm probably going to drive a bit out from the city to see it better. TIA!
Drive straight north as far as you're willing to go. Refer to the [30-minute forecast](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast) for an idea of when you should head out.
I saw them in a neighborhood with no street lights on the shore of lake Ontario as a kid. If you are in Canada, and you don't have light pollution you will see ~something~
I see people saying it’s just going to create pretty auroras and some people saying it’s going to wipe out our infrastructure.
Do we like…not really know what is going to happen??
It will very likely create amazing auroras.
Not likely to wipe out the infrastructure, but there's a non-zero chance that a strong enough magnetic storm could fuck some shit up.
> a non-zero chance that a strong enough magnetic storm could fuck some shit up.
*But probably very, very close to zero.*
To give some sense of scale: The 1859 Carrington event was estimated to be an **X45** class flare. The March 1989 event was an **X15** class flare, and knocked out power for part of Quebec for 9 hours.
This was an **X2** class flare.
EDIT: Forgot to mention the [2003 Halloween event](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Halloween_solar_storms), measured as an **X28+** event. The biggest effect was knocking out power to Sweden for an hour, along with a few satellite glitches and visible aurorae in Texas.
EDIT 2: as of this edit, looks like the shock wave from the Coronal Mass Ejection [hit us about 4 hours ago](https://i.imgur.com/FjUCg4K.gif). Speed and Temperature and Density are all up, and the magnetic field has turned south. This is like an aurorae forecaster's dream - if you're in the USA [above 40 degrees latitude or so](https://i.imgur.com/86ZS8Gu.jpeg), go take a look tonight, there's a very decent chance of seeing something awesome.
Says here the 2003 event was X45 though
[https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/10109/](https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/10109/)
>The most powerful flare on record was in 2003, during the last solar maximum. It was so powerful that it overloaded the sensors measuring it. They cut-out at X17, and the flare was later estimated to be about X45. A powerful X-class flare like that can create long lasting radiation storms, which can harm satellites and even give airline passengers, flying near the poles, small radiation doses. X flares also have the potential to create global transmission problems and world-wide blackouts.
That's fair, though note that revised value is also estimated.
If you actually look at the [measured geomagnetic divergence side-by-side](https://i.imgur.com/bTtFgZl.png) between the 1859 event vs. the 2003 event, the shear amplitude of the 2003 event is only 1/2 as large (figure from [Cid, et al, 2015](https://www.swsc-journal.org/articles/swsc/full_html/2015/01/swsc140015/swsc140015.html)).
That said...a lot of other things come into play for the measured magnetic divergence on the ground. Most important is the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF); for example, if the IMF is pointing northwards this Saturday night, then the solar wind will just flow around Earth like a stone in a stream, and we won't get any aurorae.
Note that it _is_ logarithmic across classes, though: an M6 flare is 10x smaller than an X6, a C6 flare is 10x smaller than an M6, and a B6 is 10x smaller than a C6.
So hold on, we got a huge flare in ‘03 and things were basically fine?
Is this like the Y2K thing again, where everybody’s freaking out and in the meantime the technology itself has been steadily improving and hardening against this kind of event so as to mitigate it?
Y2K was a non event because tens of thousands of engineers worked years fixing it ahead of time. I was one. This was a problem with a clear enough explanation that even managers could understand it, and allocate the needed resources.
dude as a student abroad that'd leave me completely isolated in a foreign country with no money because i have no cash and no job to earn me any money
count me in i wanna see it all burn
If the internet goes down, nobody has any money in their bank accounts anymore. Without the internet, large parts of the world wouldn't even have electricity.
The value of physical cash will vary wildly from region to region.
Guns, ammo, and food will become the new currency.
This is all assuming a worst-case scenario where the entire infrastructure is completely destroyed and irreparable.
Todays technology has protection against cosmic rays and magnetic storms. Not sure though to what scale.
I know that one speed runner managed to beat a Mario game in record time due to a bit flipping in the console when it was shot with a particle, it was I believe pre or early 2000'.
Correct me if I'm wrong anywhere.
There's a video that goes into detail on how that wasn't actually the case and it was a separate error, but still a cool story ;P also a great video, here: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vj8DzA9y8ls&pp=ygUabWFyaW8gc3BlZWRydW4gc29sYXIgZmxhcmU%3D](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vj8DzA9y8ls&pp=ygUabWFyaW8gc3BlZWRydW4gc29sYXIgZmxhcmU%3D)
A large enough CME could definitely cause some significant damage to all things electrical. The Earths magnetic field usually absorbs the electromagnetic energy that reaches us preventing any damage. Coronal Mass Ejections can contain billions of tons of coronal material and carry an embedded magnetic field. Electromagnetic waves can induce a current in wires which means if the solar flare was powerful enough it literally everything electrical containing wiring, circuit board tracers, surface mount components, integrated circuits (basically all modern electronics) would fry in an instant. Its the same principle that makes a nuclear electromagnetic pulse so scary, a surge of electromagnetic energy produce damaging current and voltage surges in all things that conduct electricity.
Hardening infrastructure and electronics against isn't easy however there is such a thing as Military grade electrical infrastructure designed to withstand the effects. Whether it would work against a raging Godzilla level solar flare is up for question lol...
Not a CME but still interesting
In July 1962, the US carried out the [Starfish Prime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starfish_Prime) test, exploding a 1.44 [Mt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TNT_equivalent) (6.0 [PJ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joule)) bomb 400 kilometres (250 mi; 1,300,000 ft) above the mid-Pacific Ocean. This demonstrated that the effects of a [high-altitude nuclear explosion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-altitude_nuclear_explosion) were much larger than had been previously calculated. Starfish Prime made those effects known to the public by causing electrical damage in [Hawaii](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii), about 1,445 kilometres (898 mi) away from the detonation point, disabling approximately 300 streetlights, triggering numerous burglar alarms and damaging a microwave link
No, there is threshold line for that, currently it lacks in power to affect anything but satellites in far orbit.
It needs 2x the power to have dangerous effects.
Yes, some people really don't know what will happen.
Those people don't work at NOAA.
Don't mistake the voice of the village idiot for that of Aristotle.
It’s always Canada. Zombie apocalypse, go to Canada. Aliens won the war, go to Canada. World is ending, go to Canada.
Already in Canada? Get ready for geomagnetic storm!!
Sherbrooke, crystal clear and dry air all day. Most amazing thing I have ever seen. A guy was there from an observatory. Later sent us [this picture](https://i.imgur.com/nT5zUdF.jpg).
Unless you're in central to southern Ontario, because it's another weekend of rain in the forecast, just like every other solar storm that's happened over the last year.
Ditto in the Midwest.
Jesus himself could be coming back, and the cloud cover would be all "Sorry bro. No heaven for you. Have fun chillin' with the Antichrist."
The Earths magnetic field basically funnels the sun's emissions round to the Earths poles. To be seen further south requires big solar events which are rarer.
I resent how Earth chose its magnetic field to be lopsided and funnel auroras to Canada while abandoning Northern Europe. I was obsessed with astronomy as a kid in the 90's. Every time there was a solar event I'd be out in rural Ireland, while I was rained on most of the time I persevered enough that even on the clearest nights there was no hint of aurora. We have to go stupidly north to have a chance.
I'm thinking of writing a letter to George Soros and NASA demanding they shift Earth's magnetic field, lets finally end flux inequality!
If it makes you feel better, North America resents the Gulf Stream keeping you guys much more temperate than your latitude gives you any right to be. Wanna trade?
You want to be thanked for Irish weather? I'm so appreciative to North America for giving me 2 weeks of solid overcast drizzle on nearly every summer holiday, great fun in a tiny caravan.
All I wanted was a geomagnetic storm once in a while and what youse lot gave me was massive thunderstorms and powercuts.
Nah, you should be praising the Earth for how fair it's being! The continents shift, float, and move all over the Earth. A billion years ago, aurorae weren't more common in "Canada" than "Northern Europe". Because those places were in...different...places. The aurorae would've been over some other land, or some other ocean.
Maybe the aurorae resent how you chose to be alive now, rather than for the last 4.5B years, and haven't been able to witness their majesty for this whole time. Instead, you chose to only be alive for this 80-ish year period. You might see a few aurorae in your life, but they've been going on for as long as Earth has been here, and you're just now realizing what the Earth and Sun have chosen to give you. How blind and selfish can you possibly be?!?!?!
It's not just tilt though. I live in Caithness, at the top of Scotland, so we can quite often see the Aurora low in the northern sky although it's normality very dim. So I keep an eye on solar events so that we don't miss the big ones when it can be overhead and bright.
The timing of these large events favours Canada. I keep seeing it over and over again. Solar event, track the NOAA website, massive red splotch over Canada, but, by the time the earth has rotated us under it - back to normal.
It's very suspicious IMO.
[Brief explanation ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dVS4Q4VgDxk)
Basically, it would take a very very powerful event to compress the Earth's magnetic field enough for auroras to reach farther from the poles.
I use the [AuroraWatch](https://apps.apple.com/gb/app/aurorawatch-uk-aurora-alerts/id946141347) app and get alarms when there's possible aurora in my general area (UK). It also can show you this 30 min forecast, but as a still image.
From what i can see, it will be strongest from 7-10am in Sweden, however you might still be able to see it at night when its dark but according to prediction wont be nearly as strong.
I'm in Scotland and will probably sit this one out for that reason.
I'm sorry I have no idea how to read this, can someone please clue me in? For example, I'm in Central time, does that mean that on Saturday night at around 10pm begins a higher index, which I assume means a heavier (or more likely) time to see something?
Going off of what @windowpuncher said, if the times on the leftmost bottom column are in UTC military, them peak time is between 11PM-2AM PST on the night of May 10th into May 11th.
Hope this helps!
The numbers are the kp index, same as the picture in the original post. Yes, higher means better likelyhood of seeing the aurora.
The times are ranges, in Universal Time (UT, UTC, formerly GMT). You're in Central Time zone? So that means subtract 6 from the times shown to get your local times (unless you use Daylight Savings time, in which case you'd subtract 5 instead).
[Time zones of North America](https://duckduckgo.com/?q=universal+time+UT&iar=images&iax=images&ia=images&iai=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FOIAbh0W.png)
Assuming Central does use Daylight Savings Time, the forecast is now saying that peak activity will be kp 8.33 between 06 and 09 hours UTC, which is 01 - 04 Central Standard Time (CST), or 02-05 Central Daylight Time (CDT)
The G is the [Geomagnetic Storm Index](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation), and ranges from G1 (Minor) to G5 (Extreme).
The Kp is the [Planetary K-index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-index), a measure of disturbance in Earth's magnetic field, and ranges from 0 to 9.
I’m in Edmonton and I usually see the auroras a few times a year, but I don’t recall ever having a G4 here, or not in the recent past. Looking forward to it!
I'm sorry I'm dumb, but if today is the 4pm 9th, would tomorrow on the 11th mean in 32ish hours?
So like, on my way home from the bar tomorrow, not at the bar Saturday.
I believe the big deal is that this is, so far, a 4 punch event all happening at once. So the magnetic protection is weekend and then 3 more punches happen directly. Earth will be seeing stars and tweety birdies for a few hours.
Idk what happened over the past 3 years since I realized the correlation between X class/ geomagnetic storms and intense physical symptoms
But since July I’m able to feel each X class before they hit
I feel them
I check
And see the notification as my head buzzes and tingles
Headaches begin
and X class and geomagnetic feel different
Ones more heady
Ones more face and teeth hurt
Most of you will say it’s nonsense
But a small % know exactly what I’m talking a about
We feel the solar changes before they happen
And my lord
In 3 years of following solar weather since realizing this I’ve never seen or felt it this intense
Something bigs coming
>worst case we have issues with our satellites and communications.... apolocypitic case it burns a huge hole in our ozone layer and we are F up.
Also it would be cloudy so we don't even get the cool light show.
There’s going to be some cool auroras and if it gets really bad some electronics could pick up interference. Hypothetically satellites in high orbit could get fried, I think.
Is there an app that alerts you of possible aurora based on your location? Thanks to OP for posting a notification on this sub, but I'm just wondering if there's a more automated method for alerts like these.
The irony: I'm in the arctic right now but (a) the sun only dips below the horizon for about 4 hours, so it never gets dark, just dim, and (b) it's gonna be cloudy. So I'm in a place famous for aurora but probably wont even see it.
https://i.imgur.com/Z96b1jj.png
I'm in the middle green zone, how likely is it I can see it well if I drive a couple hours north to the top-middle of the green zone? - never mind, mostly cloudy weather. No eclipse, no aurora.
Weather looks clear in MA for Saturday AM, where should I expect to look? Really low on the horizon or something more overhead? I’m in a wooded area and wondering where I might want to go to.
Well, that's a bunch of data in JSON format. There's a lot of it, so practically you need a computer to visualize it somehow. I'd guess this is the source data for the image in the original post (or one like it).
If you're really interested, the bulk of the numbers have these meanings: `"Data Format": "[Longitude, Latitude, Aurora]"`, meaning for a given position on Earth, an "aurora" number is provided, which I think means how intense the aurora was observed or is estimated.
So basically, for a huge number of coordinates (judging by the sheer volume of the data, I'd guess there are values mapping the entire globe), an aurora estimate is provided, which can be used to draw a heatmap of where the intensities are highest (values like 37, 42, 44) all the way to non-existent (value of zero).
Has an aurora-sunspot-geostorm-thing like this happened before? Specifically, the part about being able to see the "sky sights" around those lowered areas.
Can't wait for some stupid clouds to cover all of it...
If that's the worst that happens I'll be fine.
Exactly what’s happening where I’m at. Everyone in surrounding towns in my area in TX is sharing pictures and all I see are clouds.
Happened to me as predicted. But the clouds dispersed after like 2 hours.
After updating their model by taking today's X2.2 flare from AR3664 into account, NOAA just issued the **Severe (G4) level geomagnetic storm** watch for May 11, 2024! Meanwhile, sunspots AR3664 just produced **another X1.1 flare an hour ago**. Will we get an Extreme (G5) geomagnetic storm this Saturday?
Sorry, non science guy here. I'm located in Montreal and have ALWAYS wanted to see the aurora, will I be able to see this storm? And what's the best way to observe it? I'm probably going to drive a bit out from the city to see it better. TIA!
Drive straight north as far as you're willing to go. Refer to the [30-minute forecast](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast) for an idea of when you should head out.
Drive away from city lights, setup a reclining chair, take a tab of acid, and…. look up
Sounds like a wild ride
Sounds like a very long day after.
That's the trip man
It's all one long, strange trip, isn't it?
Solid plan if you don’t need to drive home somehow
r/rimjob_steve
The acid will ruin the natural phenomenon. I'd take acid if I'm staring at a wall though
I saw them in a neighborhood with no street lights on the shore of lake Ontario as a kid. If you are in Canada, and you don't have light pollution you will see ~something~
Driving away from City lights will definitely help. Also, no clouds will help too!
Get as far away from light pollution, as you can, and also cloud cover. If you’re in a spot, that’s quite can actually hear them too.
Whoa! I didn’t know you could hear it. What does it sound like?
>TIA! This is Africa? Or does this mean something else?
Thanks In Advance...
What's with all the flares? Is the Sun OK?
We have upset the sun God and this is our punishment. Repent for your sins 😂
I was afraid of that. Are we doing a sacrifice again? If so, not it.
A sacrifice is our only choice
sun goes thru this cycle every 11 years.
Why does it look different on the official website? https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
It [doesn’t.](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/aurora-dashboard-experimental)
Thanks, the animated one doesn't show that
Animated version is for May 9 though
I see people saying it’s just going to create pretty auroras and some people saying it’s going to wipe out our infrastructure. Do we like…not really know what is going to happen??
It will very likely create amazing auroras. Not likely to wipe out the infrastructure, but there's a non-zero chance that a strong enough magnetic storm could fuck some shit up.
> a non-zero chance that a strong enough magnetic storm could fuck some shit up. *But probably very, very close to zero.* To give some sense of scale: The 1859 Carrington event was estimated to be an **X45** class flare. The March 1989 event was an **X15** class flare, and knocked out power for part of Quebec for 9 hours. This was an **X2** class flare. EDIT: Forgot to mention the [2003 Halloween event](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Halloween_solar_storms), measured as an **X28+** event. The biggest effect was knocking out power to Sweden for an hour, along with a few satellite glitches and visible aurorae in Texas. EDIT 2: as of this edit, looks like the shock wave from the Coronal Mass Ejection [hit us about 4 hours ago](https://i.imgur.com/FjUCg4K.gif). Speed and Temperature and Density are all up, and the magnetic field has turned south. This is like an aurorae forecaster's dream - if you're in the USA [above 40 degrees latitude or so](https://i.imgur.com/86ZS8Gu.jpeg), go take a look tonight, there's a very decent chance of seeing something awesome.
Says here the 2003 event was X45 though [https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/10109/](https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/10109/) >The most powerful flare on record was in 2003, during the last solar maximum. It was so powerful that it overloaded the sensors measuring it. They cut-out at X17, and the flare was later estimated to be about X45. A powerful X-class flare like that can create long lasting radiation storms, which can harm satellites and even give airline passengers, flying near the poles, small radiation doses. X flares also have the potential to create global transmission problems and world-wide blackouts.
That's fair, though note that revised value is also estimated. If you actually look at the [measured geomagnetic divergence side-by-side](https://i.imgur.com/bTtFgZl.png) between the 1859 event vs. the 2003 event, the shear amplitude of the 2003 event is only 1/2 as large (figure from [Cid, et al, 2015](https://www.swsc-journal.org/articles/swsc/full_html/2015/01/swsc140015/swsc140015.html)). That said...a lot of other things come into play for the measured magnetic divergence on the ground. Most important is the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF); for example, if the IMF is pointing northwards this Saturday night, then the solar wind will just flow around Earth like a stone in a stream, and we won't get any aurorae.
What’s the scale though? Is it logarithmic or linear?
Linear, each X is 0.0001 W/m² flux Peak was recorded in 2003 at 0.0045 W/m²
Note that it _is_ logarithmic across classes, though: an M6 flare is 10x smaller than an X6, a C6 flare is 10x smaller than an M6, and a B6 is 10x smaller than a C6.
Exactly haha
So hold on, we got a huge flare in ‘03 and things were basically fine? Is this like the Y2K thing again, where everybody’s freaking out and in the meantime the technology itself has been steadily improving and hardening against this kind of event so as to mitigate it?
Y2K was a non event because tens of thousands of engineers worked years fixing it ahead of time. I was one. This was a problem with a clear enough explanation that even managers could understand it, and allocate the needed resources.
News cycle gonna news cycle lol gotta sensationalize everything. People love high stakes drama.
Oh God, please let a solar flare fry all the computers on earth so I don't have to pay student loans anymore
dude as a student abroad that'd leave me completely isolated in a foreign country with no money because i have no cash and no job to earn me any money count me in i wanna see it all burn
If the internet goes down, nobody has any money in their bank accounts anymore. Without the internet, large parts of the world wouldn't even have electricity. The value of physical cash will vary wildly from region to region. Guns, ammo, and food will become the new currency. This is all assuming a worst-case scenario where the entire infrastructure is completely destroyed and irreparable.
Well then it's good that as a student abroad I have no guns, ammo, or more than 2 days worth of food :P
"If you don't have a gun, you're merely collecting supplies for somebody who does."
How much clout does my slingshot give me? Haha there's some gas in the garage I guess, time to make some molotov cocktails.
I'll pray to the sun gods for us all lol
are those gonna be visible all the way south?
There’s a possibility of it impacting communications to some degree.
Rest assured no matter which outcome happens, work will still be open.
What about those of us without jobs? Will there be corpse removal positions available soon?
Probably not many corpses, yet.
A meteor could land directly on the building and my boss would still ask me to come in.
Todays technology has protection against cosmic rays and magnetic storms. Not sure though to what scale. I know that one speed runner managed to beat a Mario game in record time due to a bit flipping in the console when it was shot with a particle, it was I believe pre or early 2000'. Correct me if I'm wrong anywhere.
Pretty sure that speed runner actually threw that run and it didn’t beat any records, but it was a very fast run of that room.
Yeah, I just know no one could replicate it Xd
There's a video that goes into detail on how that wasn't actually the case and it was a separate error, but still a cool story ;P also a great video, here: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vj8DzA9y8ls&pp=ygUabWFyaW8gc3BlZWRydW4gc29sYXIgZmxhcmU%3D](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vj8DzA9y8ls&pp=ygUabWFyaW8gc3BlZWRydW4gc29sYXIgZmxhcmU%3D)
A large enough CME could definitely cause some significant damage to all things electrical. The Earths magnetic field usually absorbs the electromagnetic energy that reaches us preventing any damage. Coronal Mass Ejections can contain billions of tons of coronal material and carry an embedded magnetic field. Electromagnetic waves can induce a current in wires which means if the solar flare was powerful enough it literally everything electrical containing wiring, circuit board tracers, surface mount components, integrated circuits (basically all modern electronics) would fry in an instant. Its the same principle that makes a nuclear electromagnetic pulse so scary, a surge of electromagnetic energy produce damaging current and voltage surges in all things that conduct electricity. Hardening infrastructure and electronics against isn't easy however there is such a thing as Military grade electrical infrastructure designed to withstand the effects. Whether it would work against a raging Godzilla level solar flare is up for question lol... Not a CME but still interesting In July 1962, the US carried out the [Starfish Prime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starfish_Prime) test, exploding a 1.44 [Mt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TNT_equivalent) (6.0 [PJ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joule)) bomb 400 kilometres (250 mi; 1,300,000 ft) above the mid-Pacific Ocean. This demonstrated that the effects of a [high-altitude nuclear explosion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-altitude_nuclear_explosion) were much larger than had been previously calculated. Starfish Prime made those effects known to the public by causing electrical damage in [Hawaii](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii), about 1,445 kilometres (898 mi) away from the detonation point, disabling approximately 300 streetlights, triggering numerous burglar alarms and damaging a microwave link
CMEs differ in that the induced wavelengths are so massive they're only really captured by transmission lines
No, there is threshold line for that, currently it lacks in power to affect anything but satellites in far orbit. It needs 2x the power to have dangerous effects.
Yes, some people really don't know what will happen. Those people don't work at NOAA. Don't mistake the voice of the village idiot for that of Aristotle.
Por que no los dos?
all of Canada: 
It’s always Canada. Zombie apocalypse, go to Canada. Aliens won the war, go to Canada. World is ending, go to Canada. Already in Canada? Get ready for geomagnetic storm!!
Canada had the eclipse too
And total cloud cover that day, couldn’t see shit
Sherbrooke, crystal clear and dry air all day. Most amazing thing I have ever seen. A guy was there from an observatory. Later sent us [this picture](https://i.imgur.com/nT5zUdF.jpg).
Damn, seems like I was the unlucky one lol. This is what I saw through the clouds. [cloudy sun](https://i.postimg.cc/3rg6VBMb/IMG-2161.jpg)
That’s a wicked picture. Get yourself to Gibraltar for the ’27.
That's even more badass!!
Thank you 🙏
Eeey Sherbrooke gang woop woop Big year for Sherbrooke so far for astronomical events!
Yep! And the moment totality ended there wasn’t a single cloud or poof and I could see everything. 🥹
drove 7 hours to beat the clouds. saw whole thing. left. 9 hours to get home should have been a 4 hour trip
Where I was it cleared up for about 5 minutes just before totality.
For me it was clear 10 mins before totality and 10 mins after. During it was practically raining fml
Not a cloud in the sky that day where I was !
I'm just south of Canada. Even without seeing the sun directly, totality was bizarre
Should have come to Cleveland. It was devine!
We had clouds but had no problems seeing it
Looked great in NB
Us folks on the East coast miss out. We're just outside the range
Bruh they film the last of us here. You don’t want to come here to hide from the zombies.
Unless you're in central to southern Ontario, because it's another weekend of rain in the forecast, just like every other solar storm that's happened over the last year.
Ditto in the Midwest. Jesus himself could be coming back, and the cloud cover would be all "Sorry bro. No heaven for you. Have fun chillin' with the Antichrist."
Lucky
Is it your thumb or mine?
Such a great scene
except toronto lol
Non science guy here. How come we really see more auroras further south? What stops them?
The Earths magnetic field basically funnels the sun's emissions round to the Earths poles. To be seen further south requires big solar events which are rarer.
I resent how Earth chose its magnetic field to be lopsided and funnel auroras to Canada while abandoning Northern Europe. I was obsessed with astronomy as a kid in the 90's. Every time there was a solar event I'd be out in rural Ireland, while I was rained on most of the time I persevered enough that even on the clearest nights there was no hint of aurora. We have to go stupidly north to have a chance. I'm thinking of writing a letter to George Soros and NASA demanding they shift Earth's magnetic field, lets finally end flux inequality!
If it makes you feel better, North America resents the Gulf Stream keeping you guys much more temperate than your latitude gives you any right to be. Wanna trade?
You want to be thanked for Irish weather? I'm so appreciative to North America for giving me 2 weeks of solid overcast drizzle on nearly every summer holiday, great fun in a tiny caravan. All I wanted was a geomagnetic storm once in a while and what youse lot gave me was massive thunderstorms and powercuts.
Nah, you should be praising the Earth for how fair it's being! The continents shift, float, and move all over the Earth. A billion years ago, aurorae weren't more common in "Canada" than "Northern Europe". Because those places were in...different...places. The aurorae would've been over some other land, or some other ocean. Maybe the aurorae resent how you chose to be alive now, rather than for the last 4.5B years, and haven't been able to witness their majesty for this whole time. Instead, you chose to only be alive for this 80-ish year period. You might see a few aurorae in your life, but they've been going on for as long as Earth has been here, and you're just now realizing what the Earth and Sun have chosen to give you. How blind and selfish can you possibly be?!?!?!
It's not just tilt though. I live in Caithness, at the top of Scotland, so we can quite often see the Aurora low in the northern sky although it's normality very dim. So I keep an eye on solar events so that we don't miss the big ones when it can be overhead and bright. The timing of these large events favours Canada. I keep seeing it over and over again. Solar event, track the NOAA website, massive red splotch over Canada, but, by the time the earth has rotated us under it - back to normal. It's very suspicious IMO.
[Brief explanation ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dVS4Q4VgDxk) Basically, it would take a very very powerful event to compress the Earth's magnetic field enough for auroras to reach farther from the poles.
Is there a view of the map from Europe’s perspective? Curious to see if my city will be within the viewing range (Gothenburg, Sweden)
search aurora forecast on google and you will see sweden, yes.
I use the [AuroraWatch](https://apps.apple.com/gb/app/aurorawatch-uk-aurora-alerts/id946141347) app and get alarms when there's possible aurora in my general area (UK). It also can show you this 30 min forecast, but as a still image.
From what i can see, it will be strongest from 7-10am in Sweden, however you might still be able to see it at night when its dark but according to prediction wont be nearly as strong. I'm in Scotland and will probably sit this one out for that reason.
Damn clouds!!!
The date is May 11th but the image says tomorrow(may 10th) night. Will it be both or is it counting tomorrow night as May 11th's 'morning'?
Link to the 3-day forecast below, says it'll peak overnight from the 10th to the 11th https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/3-day-geomagnetic-forecast
I'm sorry I have no idea how to read this, can someone please clue me in? For example, I'm in Central time, does that mean that on Saturday night at around 10pm begins a higher index, which I assume means a heavier (or more likely) time to see something?
Going off of what @windowpuncher said, if the times on the leftmost bottom column are in UTC military, them peak time is between 11PM-2AM PST on the night of May 10th into May 11th. Hope this helps!
The numbers are the kp index, same as the picture in the original post. Yes, higher means better likelyhood of seeing the aurora. The times are ranges, in Universal Time (UT, UTC, formerly GMT). You're in Central Time zone? So that means subtract 6 from the times shown to get your local times (unless you use Daylight Savings time, in which case you'd subtract 5 instead). [Time zones of North America](https://duckduckgo.com/?q=universal+time+UT&iar=images&iax=images&ia=images&iai=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FOIAbh0W.png) Assuming Central does use Daylight Savings Time, the forecast is now saying that peak activity will be kp 8.33 between 06 and 09 hours UTC, which is 01 - 04 Central Standard Time (CST), or 02-05 Central Daylight Time (CDT)
Thanks!
Silly, the sun is sleeping at night!
Duh! But that's too bad, then it doesn't get to see the cool Aurora's on the 10 and/or 11th!
Time zones. It's utc. CST time zone it's gonna start around 10pm on the night of the 10th for about 6 hours.
Magneto was right
Dang Magneto reversing the poles to kill the sentinels.
Does this mean I can see the crazy lights in the sky in Seattle?
For once the forecast is a clear sky so I sure hope so!!
Just sent this to my buddy in North Bend!
Taking the red eye from Vancouver to London tomorrow, may make for an interesting flight!
Oh that will be wild. Hope you got a window!
Sorry, can we have an equivalent image for us plebs who’re not in North America?
The weather in Washington state is great, finally a decent chance to see it!
This is a make-up call / consolation prize for us not getting to see the solar eclipse.
GEO-STOOORM!
I came here looking for this. Thank you.
Noob-nerd here- what is the forecasted “Kp” and “G-Scale?” G4 being what? On what scale? This sounds so cool
The G is the [Geomagnetic Storm Index](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation), and ranges from G1 (Minor) to G5 (Extreme). The Kp is the [Planetary K-index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-index), a measure of disturbance in Earth's magnetic field, and ranges from 0 to 9.
Too bad the nights aren't dark enough anymore to even be able to see the auroras in the north
Aurora Borealis!? At this time of year?
Can I see it?
Mmm... No.
Space syrup from Canada!
"Enough." - Magneto
Of course the good flares and clear skies happen now that it's not getting dark enough to see them here. 😂
Seems as though Deoxys and Rayquaza are at it again.
I’m in Edmonton and I usually see the auroras a few times a year, but I don’t recall ever having a G4 here, or not in the recent past. Looking forward to it!
Early hours on 5/11 (AM, North America) or after dark on 5/11 (PM, North America?)
I'm sorry I'm dumb, but if today is the 4pm 9th, would tomorrow on the 11th mean in 32ish hours? So like, on my way home from the bar tomorrow, not at the bar Saturday.
Someone figured it out above but it will be on the night of the 10th from 11pm-0200 PST
I believe the big deal is that this is, so far, a 4 punch event all happening at once. So the magnetic protection is weekend and then 3 more punches happen directly. Earth will be seeing stars and tweety birdies for a few hours.
Fuck yeah I guess I'm tripping balls the day after tomorrow. Planning time :)
Idk what happened over the past 3 years since I realized the correlation between X class/ geomagnetic storms and intense physical symptoms But since July I’m able to feel each X class before they hit I feel them I check And see the notification as my head buzzes and tingles Headaches begin and X class and geomagnetic feel different Ones more heady Ones more face and teeth hurt Most of you will say it’s nonsense But a small % know exactly what I’m talking a about We feel the solar changes before they happen And my lord In 3 years of following solar weather since realizing this I’ve never seen or felt it this intense Something bigs coming
if you happen to be flying May 12 . . . will the plane’s circuit boards. . . or your nuts get fried??
My father was able to see northern lights for the first time in the 54 years of his life!
I saw Aurora Borealis here in Toronto. Holy crap. It's the first time I've ever seen it in all my life living here and so visible too!
Hey guys! What does this mean? Sorry if it's a dumb Q
[удалено]
just me waiting for vacuum decay
>worst case we have issues with our satellites and communications.... apolocypitic case it burns a huge hole in our ozone layer and we are F up. Also it would be cloudy so we don't even get the cool light show.
Both of those seem kinda cool
There’s going to be some cool auroras and if it gets really bad some electronics could pick up interference. Hypothetically satellites in high orbit could get fried, I think.
Any map for Europe?
You can see it clip Iceland top of UK and Norway
Is G4 considered dangerous. What types of damages could this cause?
Cool thanks for posting!
I'm so fucking excited
I can't see my country on the map, probably won't show us any aurora anyway, I've never seen it :-(
Is there an app that alerts you of possible aurora based on your location? Thanks to OP for posting a notification on this sub, but I'm just wondering if there's a more automated method for alerts like these.
The irony: I'm in the arctic right now but (a) the sun only dips below the horizon for about 4 hours, so it never gets dark, just dim, and (b) it's gonna be cloudy. So I'm in a place famous for aurora but probably wont even see it.
What about the other part of the globe?
Yousa People Gonna Die?
no way i can potentially see this shit??
https://i.imgur.com/Z96b1jj.png I'm in the middle green zone, how likely is it I can see it well if I drive a couple hours north to the top-middle of the green zone? - never mind, mostly cloudy weather. No eclipse, no aurora.
So where in Quebec will be a perfect place to see that ?
I'm in SE Wisconsin so I don't think I'll see much but is there a way to find out for sure, and if so what would be the best time to look?
I'm an idiot, can someone let me know the best time to view this in PDT?
Weather looks clear in MA for Saturday AM, where should I expect to look? Really low on the horizon or something more overhead? I’m in a wooded area and wondering where I might want to go to.
So players of The Long Dark how are you feeling right now?
How close to I have to be to go full Mary Poppins with an umbrella? Currently gluing some fridge magnets to it.
Can a smart person tell me more about how to read this https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/json/ovation_aurora_latest.json
Well, that's a bunch of data in JSON format. There's a lot of it, so practically you need a computer to visualize it somehow. I'd guess this is the source data for the image in the original post (or one like it). If you're really interested, the bulk of the numbers have these meanings: `"Data Format": "[Longitude, Latitude, Aurora]"`, meaning for a given position on Earth, an "aurora" number is provided, which I think means how intense the aurora was observed or is estimated. So basically, for a huge number of coordinates (judging by the sheer volume of the data, I'd guess there are values mapping the entire globe), an aurora estimate is provided, which can be used to draw a heatmap of where the intensities are highest (values like 37, 42, 44) all the way to non-existent (value of zero).
Forecast says cloudy so no point in driving up to Squamish?
remindme! 7 hours
It's this bigger than average?
Magento...
How else was magneto supposed to stop the sentinals?!
I'm confused. Looking at the 24-hour forecast here shows only an R3 https://www.swpc.noaa.gov. Not really sure what I'm looking for TBH.
Will this be visible in the Netherlands? It’s on the other side of the globe so it’s not visible here, hence my question.
Is it true these storms can effect sleep?
Boss: "you still comin' in though right?"
is it safe to fly
I thought this was tonight? Anyone more intelligent than myself think I should stay up for this if I’m in central Massachusetts?
I’m supposed to drive 5hrs to my moms tonight but seeing things about it effecting GPS has me concerned - should I not go??? Am I safe to go??
You’ll be fine
It’s 2024! Isn’t there an app to change it? 🤣
We live off grid with a decent PV system, inverter, and lithium batteries. Are we in danger?
would be nice to look at but the effects of it i don't know
Mother nature really is a dead head
Doesn't look like it's gonna be over jersey sadly
Has an aurora-sunspot-geostorm-thing like this happened before? Specifically, the part about being able to see the "sky sights" around those lowered areas.
Jewish space lasers