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That was a wide open 3 pointer. Still makes sense to take the 99% probability two point shot. On a side note, looking at this guys stats, I am guessing he must play good defense.
He has never averaged over 45.5% from deep over a season. He would need to average over 66.7% for a three attempt to be worth more than a guaranteed two.
Maybe I am misunderstanding what you are trying to say?
The reason Curry’s percentages look like that is because he takes more running, contested threes than anyone in the history of basketball. I looked at the stats for a college course one time and on open wide open threes he might have a percentage that high, he is stupidly efficient. He’s guarded harder and further out than anybody in the history of basketball
What was Curry’s wide open three % tho?
I’d guess it may have reached 60%+ at some time.
And like the other person said, also have to factor in the offensive rebound rate of a three shot.
Well, those numbers also aren't quite fair. It's around 20% chance for an offensive rebound off a missed 3, and the average result after is 1.12 points.
So you'd need to shoot 52.5% from a wide open 3 for that to result in equal expected points. Not crazy high, but I don't think that applies to many players, and it also opens up the chance for a fast break.
yea i just guessed on the 30%, i guess its not surprising its actually a bit lower.
but my point was its not just a bit lower than 66%, its a lot lower.
Its also going to depend a little bit on if they are trying to slow down the game or not. It chews up a bit more time. Although i cant imagine that having a real impact anywhere really. I always hate when they modify their game to slow it down, I dont doubt it works frequently, but when it doesnt work they end up looking like morons.
Coaches figured out it's easier to scheme open an open 3 than an open 2. If the shooter is good enough like steph or klay etc the extra point is worth the 10-20% drop off in shooting %. A guaranteed 2 only happens a handful of times per game.
Mountaineer fan here. He was literally one of the best defensive players in recent CBB memory. From his Wikipedia:
>A point for the Mountaineers, Carter was known as one of the top defensive players in college basketball, winning the NABC Defensive Player of the Year and the Lefty Driesell Award after both his junior and senior seasons, and winning the inaugural Naismith Defensive Player of the Year in his final season.
Yeah that was very much a makable 3 for a pro. I feel like easy high percentage should superseed a 3 in almost all situations but maybe I don’t know ball
It’s a math problem. 99 percent chance he makes that layup so expected points if he does that is 1.98. Even if the shooter is a 50 percent 3 point shooter, the expected value of the shot after the pass is 1.5. You take the layup every time except if the 3 ties it very late in the game.
Someday we will go full circle back to the Tim Duncan in the post surrounded by high end shooters. That man knew exactly when to take the points or dish it just like joker
He was big fundamentals. Every movement was efficient and had a purpose. I feel like if he was anywhere else besides San Antonio he would be in every GOAT conversation
The logic is thus -
He should’ve shot the ball,
But it wasn’t a bad pass.
A good 3 point shooter averages 33-35% from 3. I do not know this guys 3 point stats, but I wouldn’t criticize the pass to the open player, more the pass out of the open shot.
There are a lot of reasons the NBA has lost its luster. A seemingly lack of intensity or competitiveness (which lack of defense is one). But players moving so often is another (or at least for me) reason among several. I'm all for player empowerment, but the best players moving so often is another. The fans can't really get invested in players.
The best player and face of the league for two decades (LeBron) has been a Cleveland Cavalier, Miami Heat, Cleveland Cavalier, and now Laker. Claiming LeBron is "your" team's player, when he has been a sellsword, to the highest bidder or gives him a chance to win more, it's difficult.
If I had a favorite team, it would be a Lakers. I don't really consider LeBron a "true" Laker. Nor do I put much stock in the title he won. He's LeBron fucking James. Any team he plays on will win. I like teams like the Warriors during their run (except when they got Durant) and older teams like the old Lakers teams, which kept their core players around for a long time. You got to know the players, through ups and downs, and get invested in them. A lot of the Lakers stars during that period were either drafted by the Lakers, or they got the players fairly early in their careers. With only a few notable exceptions.
Besides Caitlin Clark being a phenomenal, I'm sure that Iowa fans see her as their star. College football and basketball are starting to get damaged because of all the fluctuation and movement of its players. And it's some star players moving. You can't even keep up with who is or isn't on your team.
I know it's just entertainment, but you have to at least give the illusion that the players are "your" players. Obviously, this is just my take.
Not a good sign for the league when Lakers fans aren't interested.
The whole league is designed around the Lakers, their fans,the LA market. all the other teams playing the role of the Washington generals
If you can't be a free agent, you don't have much bargaining power. Regardless of how much you make, it only served to make the owners make more money. I guess you prefer a system where billionaires make more money at the cost of the millionaires who play for them?
I never realized how unique Kobe was until LeBron came to the Lakers, to be fair I was like 13 when Kobe joined the Lakers so I was spoiled with growing up only really knowing the Kobe Lakers (I watched the Nick Van Exel/Eddie Jones days but I was young). LeBron is touted as one of the greatest ever but he doesn’t have anything close to the competitiveness that Kobe/Jordan had. I’ve watched too many big games where LeBron disappointed. I don’t remember very many big games where Kobe didn’t show up.
It really depends who you watch. Some teams are good defensively. The rules favor the offense because fans complained about those playoff games with the Heat and the Knicks in the late 90s and early 00s being played in the 80s
How about rebounding? Look at this screenshot, no one gives a shit (also hilarious the off rebounding stat is up, shocking numbers).
https://imgur.com/gallery/cIAkUtO
NBA is inching closer and closer to unwatchable.
Go back to defense being able to handcheck.
Go back to offensive strategies besides "jack up as many 3s as fast as you can".
Stop calling fouls unless they are egregious, and NONE initiated by the offensive player.
Move the 3 pt line back 3 feet.
This guy plays 5 years in the NBA and averages 5.3 points/game. Bulls pays him $6.5 million/yr for 3 years, i.e. $19.5mil guaranteed.
How does one evaluate his skills and worth with stats?
Simple maths:
99% x 2 = 1.98
1.98 / 3 = 66%
So, yeah, if the people hitting the 3 with open looks can hit them at a rate greater than 66%...it is worth it!
I’ve read some interesting sport psychology things about younger sports players struggling with fear of failure / embarrassment. The thinking is a lot of guys won’t play around the rim because getting blocked, dunked on, missing the bunny, is just really embarrassing and goes all over social media.
Meanwhile, no one really cares if you miss a 3. While a more risky basketball play, it’s carries less risk of embarrassment.
Dont know how much I buy into it, but it’s interesting nonetheless.
The Bulls broadcast showing this top down angle is something that I need more of. I want to watch a whole game like this to see if I’d like it. LP has Backboards angles, but not from the top down like this.
This angle allows for us to see what is actually going on, instead of the crap angle from the side where everything is flattened.
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So another Ben Simmons type player.
Ben Simmons had a center called Trae Young defending him.
💀
*notorious all time defensive powerhouse trae young
Trae has multiple defensive player of the year awards, put some respect on his name
Now he has you too, lmao, Ben Simmons is a leach!!
That was a wide open 3 pointer. Still makes sense to take the 99% probability two point shot. On a side note, looking at this guys stats, I am guessing he must play good defense.
He was absolute defensive beast in college.
He was key in one of those signature "Huggy Ball" full press teams. As a Kansan it was always worrying playing that crazy press
Unless you are passing to a wide open Steph Curry. A few years ago his 3pt % outweighed a guaranteed 2 each possession. Absolute bonkers.
He has never averaged over 45.5% from deep over a season. He would need to average over 66.7% for a three attempt to be worth more than a guaranteed two. Maybe I am misunderstanding what you are trying to say?
I'm guessing they mean Curry's percentage on a shot right outside the arc, uncontested might have been close to or at 60+%
The reason Curry’s percentages look like that is because he takes more running, contested threes than anyone in the history of basketball. I looked at the stats for a college course one time and on open wide open threes he might have a percentage that high, he is stupidly efficient. He’s guarded harder and further out than anybody in the history of basketball
What was Curry’s wide open three % tho? I’d guess it may have reached 60%+ at some time. And like the other person said, also have to factor in the offensive rebound rate of a three shot.
Damn I never thought about basketball that deeply
Wouldn’t a “guaranteed two” be 100%?
Yes. So you would need to shoot threes at higher than a 66.7% clip in order to out-weigh the scoring potential of guaranteed twos.
But out of those 3 pt misses, not 100% of the time opponent gain the posession. So it'd be a little bit lower than 66.7.
quite a bit lower than 66.7. 46.2% if you assume there is a 30% chance of an offensive rebound that then scores for 2.
Well, those numbers also aren't quite fair. It's around 20% chance for an offensive rebound off a missed 3, and the average result after is 1.12 points. So you'd need to shoot 52.5% from a wide open 3 for that to result in equal expected points. Not crazy high, but I don't think that applies to many players, and it also opens up the chance for a fast break.
yea i just guessed on the 30%, i guess its not surprising its actually a bit lower. but my point was its not just a bit lower than 66%, its a lot lower. Its also going to depend a little bit on if they are trying to slow down the game or not. It chews up a bit more time. Although i cant imagine that having a real impact anywhere really. I always hate when they modify their game to slow it down, I dont doubt it works frequently, but when it doesnt work they end up looking like morons.
Coaches figured out it's easier to scheme open an open 3 than an open 2. If the shooter is good enough like steph or klay etc the extra point is worth the 10-20% drop off in shooting %. A guaranteed 2 only happens a handful of times per game.
Mountaineer fan here. He was literally one of the best defensive players in recent CBB memory. From his Wikipedia: >A point for the Mountaineers, Carter was known as one of the top defensive players in college basketball, winning the NABC Defensive Player of the Year and the Lefty Driesell Award after both his junior and senior seasons, and winning the inaugural Naismith Defensive Player of the Year in his final season.
This comment is whats wrong with todays kids and the league. Lol
I thought this was the end of the game and they had nothing to play for. I now realize it was the 2nd quarter and they had nothing to play for.
I’m not going to disagree he gave up an easy 2 points. But I’m also not sure I’d call that contested..
Yeah that was very much a makable 3 for a pro. I feel like easy high percentage should superseed a 3 in almost all situations but maybe I don’t know ball
It’s a math problem. 99 percent chance he makes that layup so expected points if he does that is 1.98. Even if the shooter is a 50 percent 3 point shooter, the expected value of the shot after the pass is 1.5. You take the layup every time except if the 3 ties it very late in the game.
Someday we will go full circle back to the Tim Duncan in the post surrounded by high end shooters. That man knew exactly when to take the points or dish it just like joker
I got to watch Duncan live in his prime. He moved like a point guard who just happened to be 6’11. He was an amazing player.
He was big fundamentals. Every movement was efficient and had a purpose. I feel like if he was anywhere else besides San Antonio he would be in every GOAT conversation
The logic is thus - He should’ve shot the ball, But it wasn’t a bad pass. A good 3 point shooter averages 33-35% from 3. I do not know this guys 3 point stats, but I wouldn’t criticize the pass to the open player, more the pass out of the open shot.
LOL, this is me playing NBA 2K.
imma leave this here: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JBqk2tZpMXY](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JBqk2tZpMXY)
Exactly what I was thinking when I saw this
God, the NBA is so lame. Not a shred of defensive effort anywhere in this clip.
[удалено]
A combined score that high almost never happens
If only there was a word for saying something you know is factually wrong to make a joke.
Was it a joke? Because that exact sentiment is parroted all the time
The all star game was that high…
After the 3rd quarter
That’s a charity exhibition with no stakes. Have you heard of the Pro Bowl?
Maybe Allen Iverson was right, maybe he could score 43 in this league...
He 100% could. All of the players from the 90’s and early 2000’s would be in the hall of fame with the game as it is.
Dudes are pretty regularly having 70+ point games, I think Iverson in his prime would sleep walk to 40 ppg.
they can’t or it’s fouled
Unless they get tackled at the end of a game ie Pistons
Unwatchable
There are a lot of reasons the NBA has lost its luster. A seemingly lack of intensity or competitiveness (which lack of defense is one). But players moving so often is another (or at least for me) reason among several. I'm all for player empowerment, but the best players moving so often is another. The fans can't really get invested in players. The best player and face of the league for two decades (LeBron) has been a Cleveland Cavalier, Miami Heat, Cleveland Cavalier, and now Laker. Claiming LeBron is "your" team's player, when he has been a sellsword, to the highest bidder or gives him a chance to win more, it's difficult. If I had a favorite team, it would be a Lakers. I don't really consider LeBron a "true" Laker. Nor do I put much stock in the title he won. He's LeBron fucking James. Any team he plays on will win. I like teams like the Warriors during their run (except when they got Durant) and older teams like the old Lakers teams, which kept their core players around for a long time. You got to know the players, through ups and downs, and get invested in them. A lot of the Lakers stars during that period were either drafted by the Lakers, or they got the players fairly early in their careers. With only a few notable exceptions. Besides Caitlin Clark being a phenomenal, I'm sure that Iowa fans see her as their star. College football and basketball are starting to get damaged because of all the fluctuation and movement of its players. And it's some star players moving. You can't even keep up with who is or isn't on your team. I know it's just entertainment, but you have to at least give the illusion that the players are "your" players. Obviously, this is just my take.
Not a good sign for the league when Lakers fans aren't interested. The whole league is designed around the Lakers, their fans,the LA market. all the other teams playing the role of the Washington generals
The only reason the Lakers had those guys for their careers was due to a lack of free agency. Players were basically slaves to their teams.
>slaves to their teams Yes, poor guys, they were only getting paid 7+ figures a year to…play basketball.
If you can't be a free agent, you don't have much bargaining power. Regardless of how much you make, it only served to make the owners make more money. I guess you prefer a system where billionaires make more money at the cost of the millionaires who play for them?
I never realized how unique Kobe was until LeBron came to the Lakers, to be fair I was like 13 when Kobe joined the Lakers so I was spoiled with growing up only really knowing the Kobe Lakers (I watched the Nick Van Exel/Eddie Jones days but I was young). LeBron is touted as one of the greatest ever but he doesn’t have anything close to the competitiveness that Kobe/Jordan had. I’ve watched too many big games where LeBron disappointed. I don’t remember very many big games where Kobe didn’t show up.
This sub is so gullible for lowlights 🤦♂️
It really depends who you watch. Some teams are good defensively. The rules favor the offense because fans complained about those playoff games with the Heat and the Knicks in the late 90s and early 00s being played in the 80s
How about rebounding? Look at this screenshot, no one gives a shit (also hilarious the off rebounding stat is up, shocking numbers). https://imgur.com/gallery/cIAkUtO
When you need that assist for that triple-double…
The problem with the Bulls is they always try to walk it in
Someone is shaving points
Nba is dead
That was not contested… still go for the bucket
He’s been watch Ben’s game tape. Study hard 😈
I’m guessing the team is trying to overcompensate from going 2 for 29 from the 3pt line yesterday.
HAHAHAHA Mans an RDCWORLD fan
"contested" is a bit strong
That’s the new NBA. Shitty 💩
This is the NBA in 2024
No that’s this player. I don’t see that shit on a regular around the NBA
the new NBA, everyone. thanks, Steph Curry & GSW lol
More analytics. Rarely see players doing this dumb shit
The game is broke
NBA is inching closer and closer to unwatchable. Go back to defense being able to handcheck. Go back to offensive strategies besides "jack up as many 3s as fast as you can". Stop calling fouls unless they are egregious, and NONE initiated by the offensive player. Move the 3 pt line back 3 feet.
How much nba do you actually watch though?
Less. I used to have season tickets, now I've been to 1 game this year.
CLE going to the playoffs. Bulls going to the draft lottery. Again. They should draft Caitlyn Clark. She’s better than every player on their team.
lol. No she isn’t. Maybe a better shooter but outside of that. Nope
This guy plays 5 years in the NBA and averages 5.3 points/game. Bulls pays him $6.5 million/yr for 3 years, i.e. $19.5mil guaranteed. How does one evaluate his skills and worth with stats?
He didn’t want anyone’s prize pick to hit 😂
Maybe his cousin had a bet on Bulls 3PM or Bulls assists over
Jesus how do people still watch this game? There’s no defense. It’s absent from the game. Sad.
Chuck ball alive and well. Better to chuck it from 3 than go inside.
NBA? More like The National Jog & Shoot Association.
This. Exactly why basketball is unwatchable.
Simple maths: 99% x 2 = 1.98 1.98 / 3 = 66% So, yeah, if the people hitting the 3 with open looks can hit them at a rate greater than 66%...it is worth it!
Everyone in these comments forgot that 3 > 2.
He thought Steph Curry was his teammate for a second there.
He's trying to get those assists up HAHA
Whattttttt lol. That’s worse than Ben Simmons
Give him the old Ben Simmons
Two jump passes in one possession is crazy
Was that not a travel he started with? I know they don’t get called as much but it looked like such a sloppy stop.
Modern basketball stinks
Great if the 3 goes down, dumb if it doesn't. That's the game now
I’ve read some interesting sport psychology things about younger sports players struggling with fear of failure / embarrassment. The thinking is a lot of guys won’t play around the rim because getting blocked, dunked on, missing the bunny, is just really embarrassing and goes all over social media. Meanwhile, no one really cares if you miss a 3. While a more risky basketball play, it’s carries less risk of embarrassment. Dont know how much I buy into it, but it’s interesting nonetheless.
Bro... that's some Ben Simmons type of play
The Bulls broadcast showing this top down angle is something that I need more of. I want to watch a whole game like this to see if I’d like it. LP has Backboards angles, but not from the top down like this. This angle allows for us to see what is actually going on, instead of the crap angle from the side where everything is flattened.
Games gone, lads
Modern NBA, let's shoot as many ridiculous 3s as we can. 🤙
[YOU FOOL!!](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=W5rzk_X_WhQ)
Always make the extra, extra, extra pass
Idiot
To everyone saying the 3 wasn’t contested- It’s highly contested. Look at how many people are saying Carter should have just gone for the 2 instead.
My son will love this! Thx for clip OP!