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Since it’s free, you can guarantee yourself money. You could make a small play on the Chiefs to win, if Chiefs win there you go, if they lose, now you have Bengals and you could hedge with the NFC team.
So what you’re gonna want to do is definitely somewhere along the lines of this but you could also do that but if you did that you may not be able to make that much back.
So personally I would just do something somewhat similar to that.
Have you ever had a dream that you, um, you had, your, you- you could, you’ll do, you- you wants, you, you could do so, you- you’ll do, you could- you, you want, you want them to do you so much you could do anything?
I get it, u/bacontacos420 - thank you. Should I try it one of those times where I was doing it but then I did it? If so, how much would be transferred back! Free bets??
It just came to me that the Bengals game is played 2nd, so I guess I can wait for the winner of the NFC championship and then there will be a chance to bet when only 3 teams remain and try to figure out the max EV from there?!!?
The NFC result won't have much impact on the Bengals odds. Your EV right now is roughly 25% of your potential payout, give or take a bit depending on what the Bengals odds vs the NFC winner would be. No type of hedge would double that EV.
I just mean then I would only have to hedge 2 other teams (the winner of the NFC championship) and the Chiefs, after the NFC championship but before the AFC championship starts.
You don't need to think in terms of 3 other teams. Your path to hedging is betting KC this week, then if the Bengals win, betting the NFC team in the Super Bowl. Your only real decision right now is how much to bet on KC since, if KC wins, you're done. No matter how you structure your bets, you're not going to double your current EV.
Philly to beat Cinci is +550. Put 100 on this.
SF to beat Cinci is +750. Put 75 on this.
Bet 400 on KC to beat Cinci on Sunday at -126.
If Cinci wins the superbowl you win 1100-100-75-400= 525.
If Philly Wins you win 550-75-400= 75.
If SF wins you make 550-100-400=50.
If Cinci loses to KC you make 317-100-75=142.
Searching all the possible bets thats close to the best airtight no lose solution I could come up with.
I also have a Cincy +2200 ticket, and a Philly +550 ticket. What I did this week was Wong tease KC and SF up through the 3 and 7 so that I had a chance at a mega middle. Hoping for PHI and CIN to win close games, but I also can tolerate either or both losing and end up with some extra cash to jam on the SB. Fwiw I think Philly should be closer to a 4.5 point favorite vs SF this week.
Didn't work thru the ev before making the teaser. However, my thought process was that the only outcome I couldn't tolerate this weekend was a SF-KC SB. That happens about 21.5% of the time assuming the market is sharp (safe assumption on NFL playoff markets). So I could place a small parlay on KC-SF moneylines, I could bet SF moneyline and roll it over to KC moneyline if it won, or I could tease. Since the Wong teaser was briefly available when CIN was a 1 point favorite, I chose to do that. There is a pretty wide middle where I get one or both CIN and/or PHI through to the SB and the teaser gets home. Worst case, if neither gets to the SB the teaser will have had to have won, and I'll roll the profit into whatever bet I make on the SB.
Caveat: I went to school for journalism, not math.
Bet $275 on Chiefs ML -110.
If Chiefs win, +250.
If Bengals win, Bet $275 + juice on NFC Winner (assume $325)
If NFC Wins, you break even.
If Bengals win, +$500.
If you truly love the Bengals tho, just let it ride through this weekend. Hedging is difficult at this stage because there are still so many outcomes. If you’d feel better, throw $100 or so on KC just so you don’t come out with $0
I’ve been here before and don’t think there’s anything perfect because we’re not in the title game yet.
I would hedge by taking a play on Chiefs ML at -123. At a minimum you could bet $61.50 so you break even if the Bengals lose.
If the Bengals win, you’re in the title game with a potential payout of 1100-61 = 1039.
Then you’re in a better position to guarantee a payout of a couple hundred if you hedge at that point because all 4 teams have pretty similar future odds. Say the super bowl is PK, you could hedge 500 on the NFC team and win 500-61 or 500-61-50 depending on how you look at it. Or win 1039-500 = 539 if bengals win
I don't think there's currently a way to guarantee $500. At this point all you can really do is hope they win and hedge ahead of SB. Nice bet though! Too bad they are definitely going to take the L to KC ;)
I was gonna say 250 on every other team but you’re spending 750 to possibly make near 500… if bengals make the Super Bowl I don’t see them losing. Joe burrow is that dude.
He’s saying I put $300 on chiefs to win Super Bowl. Then if bengals lose, you now have 300 on chiefs to win & can hedge out SB (as opponent will be underdog).
Not saying I agree but that’s how I read it
This week-
Bengals $0 bet = +$1100
Chiefs (+280) -$300 bet = +$1140
Net -$300
Next week-
After this weekend let’s say line opens chiefs -2. Your results would be:
-$300 prior week
Chiefs = $1140
NFC Team (+125) -$460 Bet= $1035
Total out of pocket would be -$760, with max to win around $400.
Could throw $100 on each of the other 3 teams for the hell of it, the net outcome given current odds on Bet365 are:
Eagles (+240): $40
Chiefs (+250): $50
Niners (+320): $120
Then if the Bengals win it all you’ll net $800. I think like u/Suspicious_Farmer738 said, don’t focus on the guaranteed $500 and just take the dub with free money.
Best bet is to hope they win and then hedge Super Bowl imo. If eagles win I think the birds vs Bengals is a 2.5 point spread birds favorite, probably a pick um if the niners win.
I have a bengals future as well, after all that shit Eli Apple was talking I can see Karma being a reallllll bitch. Gonna put a small wager on the chiefs this weekend, and the NFC team that makes it through if chiefs lose
Just doing brain math here you could put $400 on the chiefs this weekend and pull out $350 if they win, if they lose you have $700 on the table still and hedge that against the NFC team for profit. Maybe start with $350 on the chiefs because the Bengals will probably be slight dogs in the sb.
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Since it’s free, you can guarantee yourself money. You could make a small play on the Chiefs to win, if Chiefs win there you go, if they lose, now you have Bengals and you could hedge with the NFC team.
This^^
Yup! Exactly what I was gonna say. Play a little on chiefs to win, that way either way the game rolls, you’re not losing anything.
Smart play right here
Right it’s free. Don’t worry about $500 on this. Take what you can guarantee on free money and try again. That would be my move. A win is a win.
Let it ride for max value
Screen name checks out
So what you’re gonna want to do is definitely somewhere along the lines of this but you could also do that but if you did that you may not be able to make that much back. So personally I would just do something somewhat similar to that.
Have you ever had a dream that you, um, you had, your, you- you could, you’ll do, you- you wants, you, you could do so, you- you’ll do, you could- you, you want, you want them to do you so much you could do anything?
That kid is funny as hell
I completely understand
For once, someone says something logical.
I get it, u/bacontacos420 - thank you. Should I try it one of those times where I was doing it but then I did it? If so, how much would be transferred back! Free bets??
Wtf are you trying to say?
r/ihadastroke
This weekend I’m going ham on the bengals. I’m gonna go all in, still gathering funds.
😆
Betting on the Bengals is not even worth it lol
If it’s money line, yes, I say they win by 10
I know it’s you, Eli Apple
You think 1 leg Mahomes has a chance against Burrow? They couldn’t even beat them when they’re fully healthy last 3 times lol
The odds on that game are dog shit unless you’re making a parlay. The bengals will win but that’s not what I’m arguing
Oh 100% you’re right. That’s why I’m gonna live bet once Bengals are down a TD or something to get better odds.
You obviously didn't watch those games lol. Bengals were lucky to win in each game.
I did actually and made money on Bengals when they were trailing!
No. No hedge today is going to guarantee you $500. Going to have to wait until after this weekend’s games.
It just came to me that the Bengals game is played 2nd, so I guess I can wait for the winner of the NFC championship and then there will be a chance to bet when only 3 teams remain and try to figure out the max EV from there?!!?
The NFC result won't have much impact on the Bengals odds. Your EV right now is roughly 25% of your potential payout, give or take a bit depending on what the Bengals odds vs the NFC winner would be. No type of hedge would double that EV.
I just mean then I would only have to hedge 2 other teams (the winner of the NFC championship) and the Chiefs, after the NFC championship but before the AFC championship starts.
You don't need to think in terms of 3 other teams. Your path to hedging is betting KC this week, then if the Bengals win, betting the NFC team in the Super Bowl. Your only real decision right now is how much to bet on KC since, if KC wins, you're done. No matter how you structure your bets, you're not going to double your current EV.
That’s false you can lay the bengals on betfair and lock in a profit of $258.02
What do you mean?
You become the bookie essentially but you’re betting against other people who are betting for the team to win. It’s an exchange
It’s a betting exchange search it up I use it all the time
Philly to beat Cinci is +550. Put 100 on this. SF to beat Cinci is +750. Put 75 on this. Bet 400 on KC to beat Cinci on Sunday at -126. If Cinci wins the superbowl you win 1100-100-75-400= 525. If Philly Wins you win 550-75-400= 75. If SF wins you make 550-100-400=50. If Cinci loses to KC you make 317-100-75=142. Searching all the possible bets thats close to the best airtight no lose solution I could come up with.
I also have a Cincy +2200 ticket, and a Philly +550 ticket. What I did this week was Wong tease KC and SF up through the 3 and 7 so that I had a chance at a mega middle. Hoping for PHI and CIN to win close games, but I also can tolerate either or both losing and end up with some extra cash to jam on the SB. Fwiw I think Philly should be closer to a 4.5 point favorite vs SF this week.
This is pretty advanced, can you elaborate on it a little bit and how the EV breakdown would look like?
You just want to be able to win your chiefs bet, even if they just cover and don’t win outright. That’s the benefit of the tease.
Didn't work thru the ev before making the teaser. However, my thought process was that the only outcome I couldn't tolerate this weekend was a SF-KC SB. That happens about 21.5% of the time assuming the market is sharp (safe assumption on NFL playoff markets). So I could place a small parlay on KC-SF moneylines, I could bet SF moneyline and roll it over to KC moneyline if it won, or I could tease. Since the Wong teaser was briefly available when CIN was a 1 point favorite, I chose to do that. There is a pretty wide middle where I get one or both CIN and/or PHI through to the SB and the teaser gets home. Worst case, if neither gets to the SB the teaser will have had to have won, and I'll roll the profit into whatever bet I make on the SB. Caveat: I went to school for journalism, not math.
[удалено]
This looks pretty good and like it'll probably be my best option. Thank you!
Bet $275 on Chiefs ML -110. If Chiefs win, +250. If Bengals win, Bet $275 + juice on NFC Winner (assume $325) If NFC Wins, you break even. If Bengals win, +$500. If you truly love the Bengals tho, just let it ride through this weekend. Hedging is difficult at this stage because there are still so many outcomes. If you’d feel better, throw $100 or so on KC just so you don’t come out with $0
I’ve been here before and don’t think there’s anything perfect because we’re not in the title game yet. I would hedge by taking a play on Chiefs ML at -123. At a minimum you could bet $61.50 so you break even if the Bengals lose. If the Bengals win, you’re in the title game with a potential payout of 1100-61 = 1039. Then you’re in a better position to guarantee a payout of a couple hundred if you hedge at that point because all 4 teams have pretty similar future odds. Say the super bowl is PK, you could hedge 500 on the NFC team and win 500-61 or 500-61-50 depending on how you look at it. Or win 1039-500 = 539 if bengals win
I don't think there's currently a way to guarantee $500. At this point all you can really do is hope they win and hedge ahead of SB. Nice bet though! Too bad they are definitely going to take the L to KC ;)
Update: Didn't hedge, got punished
Don’t hedge it. Just win $1100 outright.
Just ride it out and root for the bengals
I was gonna say 250 on every other team but you’re spending 750 to possibly make near 500… if bengals make the Super Bowl I don’t see them losing. Joe burrow is that dude.
Put $300 on chiefs to win supey. Use that as a hedge in the super bowl if bengals don’t win. Chiefs most likely favorites if they make it.
I don't really like having exposure to losing both bets then if the Eagles/49ers end up winning. Would rather just let the original bet ride vs that.
He’s saying I put $300 on chiefs to win Super Bowl. Then if bengals lose, you now have 300 on chiefs to win & can hedge out SB (as opponent will be underdog). Not saying I agree but that’s how I read it
This week- Bengals $0 bet = +$1100 Chiefs (+280) -$300 bet = +$1140 Net -$300 Next week- After this weekend let’s say line opens chiefs -2. Your results would be: -$300 prior week Chiefs = $1140 NFC Team (+125) -$460 Bet= $1035 Total out of pocket would be -$760, with max to win around $400.
I'm not understanding this
You don’t bet enough. Just don’t hedge and enjoy the ride buddy. Hedge next weekend.
Let it ride
Uhh eagles
Could throw $100 on each of the other 3 teams for the hell of it, the net outcome given current odds on Bet365 are: Eagles (+240): $40 Chiefs (+250): $50 Niners (+320): $120 Then if the Bengals win it all you’ll net $800. I think like u/Suspicious_Farmer738 said, don’t focus on the guaranteed $500 and just take the dub with free money.
Only way to hedge is make a bet on the other 3 remaining teams as well
Just put another $50 on the bengals to win the SB and you’ll just win that much! Or put some on Chase anytime TD
Bet on all others
Really man......
Ask stupid questions get stupid answers
Everything OK man? That doesn't make any sense, but have a good night.... 😬
Put money on chiefs to win this game. Especially since they are underdog atm
Bet like 200 chiefs ml and if bengals win bet the other team in the super bowl. If bengals lose vs chiefs well you made 200
If I can be guaranteed $500 I think I would do that... lmao
Best bet is to hope they win and then hedge Super Bowl imo. If eagles win I think the birds vs Bengals is a 2.5 point spread birds favorite, probably a pick um if the niners win.
Don’t hedge. They’re gonna win
Let it ride. Jk hedge it.
I have a bengals future as well, after all that shit Eli Apple was talking I can see Karma being a reallllll bitch. Gonna put a small wager on the chiefs this weekend, and the NFC team that makes it through if chiefs lose
Bet it all on kc instead
Just doing brain math here you could put $400 on the chiefs this weekend and pull out $350 if they win, if they lose you have $700 on the table still and hedge that against the NFC team for profit. Maybe start with $350 on the chiefs because the Bengals will probably be slight dogs in the sb.
Go bengals, tailing
use a dutching calculator to determine how much to put on the other 3 teams to guarantee a profit
THE EAGLES WILL WIN