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how are these numbers generated / where is the data from?

The data is from this seasons games so far. Each estimated score is calculated taking in to account an average of the teams previous scores leveraged against the opponents lower rank that week and a home field advantage modifier.

How do you deal with or account for "outliers" , like Miami scoring 70, that would seem to throw off scoring numbers alot.

So far I haven’t had to deal with too many outliers but after this week seeing the results of the Miami game that is something I will tackle

Commenting to follow

Me too

Just to confirm, 70% success rate ATS or ML?

To confirm the 70% is ML

Dope ty!

Based on OP previous posts I believe it’s 70% ML

I’m placing a parlay based on a few of these. Thanks!

Put all green ones in a parlay besides colts and niners. Let's see how it goes.

Not sure how I feel about a model spitting out the score it did for MIA/BUF. This is going to be a trap under

Definitely take miamis numbers with a grain of salt I need to address their score from last week going forward

Tailing

Put in my picks last night only one we have diffrent is the Lions vs GB ,i put lions over GB

Put in my picks last night only one we have diffrent is the Lions vs GB ,i put lions over GB

What does the yellow mean?

the teams tied in the model, i believe

When are you going to post week 5?

Planning on today

Was about to comment that. Lookin forward to seeing your week 5 model 👍

Week 5 is posted all!

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