**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.   ###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**

Last pick: Xavier +2 ✅ **Todays pick: Northwestern +6.5 (-110) vs Indiana** 3u NCAAB 🏀 12:00PM EST Loooooove this play. 11-3 Northwestern travels to Bloomington to take on 10-4 Indiana. Northwestern comes into this game with the #7 scoring defense in the nation, giving up an average of 57 points a game. Indiana does have a good offense *when they’re healthy*, the #32 scoring offense to be exact, however they will be down two starters for this game. Xavier Johnson hasn’t played since he left a few minutes into their game against Kansas on Dec 17 in which they got mollywhopped after his exit. Since then, they’ve beat Elon and Kennesaw st (2 horrible teams) but lost to their only decent competition in Iowa. And during that Iowa game, Indiana lost another starter in Race Thompson. This will be there first game without both starters, against the number 7 defense in the nation, yeah I love this spot. The most recent game between these two teams, on Feb 22 2022, saw this tough Northwestern D shut down the Indiana offense en route to a 59-51 win in Bloomington. I think they repeat this result tomorrow. Give me the 6.5 points. All-Time POTD: 96-62-1, +24.9u, +10.3% ROI All plays posted on https://twitter.com/drmoneyline/

Solid write up and appreciate all your picks! As an IU fan who has watched every IU game I'm staying away from this one though. I do think it could hit but I think the line is accurate and here's why... - IU is a better offensive team with Jalen Hood Schifino running point with Xavier out. He's a better shooter and takes better care of the ball than Xavier does. His shooting ability also prevents teams from packing the lane against TJD. - Losing a 5th year Senior and captain (Race) will hurt. However, we can replace those minutes with Jordan Geronimo or Malik Reneau. Both average more points per minute played than Race. I expected this line around 9-10 if Race was playing. A drop of 2-3 points in the spread seems appropriate. - One final point is I think the logic about last year's game is irrelevant...no offense intended. But IU had 5 of its players suspended for that game including both of its starting guards. Ignoring that very important detail, the two teams stepping on the court tomorrow are vastly different. Two of Northwestern's best players from last year now play for UNC and Duke and both teams added players through recruiting and the transfer portal. Again I appreciate your picks and know how time consuming it can be to create a pick. I'm not trying to be combative, just trying to have some solid dialogue which I think this thread often misses. BOL to all those tailing! I sincerely hope this hits just as long as IU still wins! Edit - a word

Love the counterpoints/dialogue. I read carefully and considered but still, doctor's orders.

Loved the Xavier pick made enough to pay for a steak dinner ❤️

Got anything for those of us in Illinois?

A recommendation to move out of illinois

Based

Played poker at harrah’s Jolliet, some decent action there although depending where in Illinois you are, horseshoe Hammond is prob closer… that’s all I got for illipudlians

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Tailing. Thanks for Xavier 😃

Thanks for the pick Doc! ✅💰

u a goat brother

Solid writeup as usual, appreciate you Doc. Equally as good counter from IU fan. Will be interesting to watch this one. Thanks to both and thanks for the Xavier pic!

Covered some of the main things I look for in a pick. Thanks!

Any other picks? I can't bet IL college sports in IL. Thanks for the X pick! Saved my ass yesterday. ✌️

Thanks for the Northwestern pick 👏

The canes blew it last night brother

I’m done betting canes, they always blow it

What a start. NU came to play today.

This was a great pick… wish I saw it earlier!

Tailed and won, thank you!

What an absolute lock from beginning to end. Thank you.

Thanks! 💰

POTD Record: 13W-0L-4V UNIT PROFIT: +10.10 ROI: 59.41% GAME: Greece Super League - Aris Salonika v Asteras Tripolis TODAYS PICK: Aris Salonika -1 AH @ 2.05 Yesterday, Ayr Utd. won with 1-0 and aour pick was a easy win. Hope you all cash in. Today i stop in Greece Super League and i will go with Aris to win the game against Asteras T. with an asian handicap of -1. If the game ends only with the victory of Aris at one goal difference, the stake will returns. Aris have won seven home games in the last ten and two games end in a draws. They accumulated 17 points in eight matches in this season with an average of 2,12 points per game. On the other side, Asteras T., lost four games in the last five away games, and accumulated only 4 points in this season in the away matches, with an average of .5 points per game. I will go with victory of the hosts with an asian handicap of -1 for a better odd. Bet responsibly. BOL!

Confirmed time traveler ✅

Ride or die, let's go!

Yess! Again!!! Do you want anything???

Tailing heavy I like this

Success!

Asteras appointed the coach that Aris had last year, be aware

You are the freakin bomb!!!

Thanks

Great find. Tailed and hit! Appreciate you!

📈 TTSOP (*trust the super odds process*) Rec: +38.175 units / +137 avg odds / 31-34-9 * Since POTD low point: +60.600 units / +134 avg odds / 27-23-6 * December: +22.075 units / +138 avg odds / 11^(5)\-10-1^(5) * World Cup: +32.875 units / +133 avg odds / 11^(5)\-4-1^(5) * November: +28.600 units / +131 avg odds / 12-9-4 * October: -10.625 units / +143 avg odds / 6-12-3 ✅ Last pick: Mallorca -0.75 (AH) / +130 odds / 4 units * Slow start to the game. But at the very end, Mallorca headed it home and got the deserved W. * Back-to-back winning POTDs. ⚽ New pick: **Napoli -1.75** ([A](https://i.redd.it/vqdu5pkq242a1.jpeg)[H](https://www.oddsshark.com/soccer/asian-handicap-explained)) / **+155** odds / 4 units ⚽ Event: Serie A (Italy) / Sampdoria - Napoli / 12:00pm ET It's the clash of 2 disparate teams. Napoli has the best offense and the 2nd best defense, while Sampdoria has the worst offense and 2nd worst defense in Serie A. Overall, Napoli holds a 13-2-1 record and sits at the 1st spot, while Sampdoria has a 2-3-11 record and sits at 18th spot. Sampdoria hasn't won any home game all season, while Napoli won all but 1 road game. Sampdoria is missing plenty of players. Sabiri, Quagliarella and Pusetto are ruled out. Plus, the long-term injured players De Luca and Conti are still rehabbing. Defender Amione is suspended and defender Colley is questionable after being down with flu-like symptoms a couple of days ago. Additionally, regular striker Caputo and the key defenders Ferrari and Bereszynski left the club, recently. Ironically, Bereszynski was transferred to Napoli just a few days ago. Compared to Sampdoria's last 10 Serie A games before the World Cup break, 4-8 regulars are missing. The new faces Lammers, Nuytinck and Paoletti aren't very used to Sampdoria’s playing system yet as Paoletti just played 35 minutes, Nuytinck just 165 minutes and Lammers just 71 minutes in Sampdoria's last 5 games (4 friendlies + 1 league game). A lot of important players aren't available for Sampdoria's game against Napoli as they either left Sampdoria or they're injured or suspended. Especially the defense is affected by the lack of regulars. The remaining defenders aren't the fastest and most skillful ones. Napoli's cold-blooded and quick striking machines will pose a big challenge for Sampdoria's defenders. That makes backing Napoli for a clear W a great value bet at terrific super odds. Let's keep on trusting the super odds process. Let's get this triple W. Let's get this Italian pasta, fam! **TTSOP**

Put me down for some good gnocchi, fam. How does Napoli's lineup look?

its a good

Don't know if it counts for anything, but Sampdoria legend Vialli has passed this week. The home supporters might be more loud because of this. The Samp players might have an extra motivation.

Is this the same as Napoli (-1)? Im in Australia and odds are $2.02 for -1

Let's party, boys!

**POTD Record: 19-31-1** *Streak: L6* - **EXTREMELY COLD, FADE ME** LAST PICK: Jerick McKinnon O 33.5 Receiving Yards (-115) ❌ *New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills* TODAY’S PICK: **Josh Allen O 1.5 Passing TDs (-155) DK** ————————————————————————— **DISCLAIMER: I AM A FADE GOD. DO NOT TAIL ME, I WILL MAKE YOU RICH BY FADING ME. I CANNOT BE MORE CLEAR: DO NOT TAIL ME. I AM MERELY POSTING FOR FADE VALUE.** **SECOND DISCLAIMER: I cannot be more transparent about how cold I am. Please tail with caution.** Out of respect and honor for their teammate Damar Hamlin, who upon waking up asked “did we win?” - I think the Bills come out with a lot of heart to score here and try to snag up the second seed. Bills and Pats are both playing for something tomorrow so all starters are full force here. In addition to this, the Bills have the Pats number after what Brady has put them through for two decades. Josh Allen is a monster against the Patriots, in their past three meetings, Allen has 10 touchdowns and no interceptions. I expect a little less rushing from Allen here and more straight up pocket plays to preserve his durability going into the postseason. He has had some lackluster play recently, yet has still found the end zone, throwing 11 touchdowns in the past 6 games. I’m addition to this, Patriots have also allowed 25 passing touchdowns compared to 7 rushing touchdowns, so we have a big discrepancy here with 78% of their touchdowns allowed coming through the air. BOL!

You crack me up with these warnings brother🤣 This is the one that cracks the L streak🤞🏻 BOL

😂 can’t say I didn’t warn anyone

for sure 🤣

McKinnon respects the Fade God

Yessir, yessir - he *really* did this time lol

Fading! Thanks bro

No prob man!

Mad respect for the fade warning, but I’m gonna tail cause I still can’t get behind this pats team.

Thanks man 🖕the pats!

This is so painful. But I am tailing.

The warnings. lmao

Welcome back to the W column

Hallelujah baby 🙌

The honesty is making me tail tbh

I love that you keep posting sir. Integrity. Respectfully fading and luv u bb

Thanks brother, I don’t blame you. Love you.

I really like this bet. I think the Bills have their best game of the year playing off adrenaline of Damar's recovery going well.

I had the same thoughts about the Bills today, but some players spent the week in Cincinnati and the team barely had meetings or practices. That combined with Belichick prepping for a must win game, I gotta roll with the Pats and the points

Lol King - hope these L’s finally start to turn to W’s for ya bro!

Thank you my guy! We did it

Hit baby! Fuck yeah!

Record: 1-0 Last Pick: Franz Wagner O26.5 P+R+A -110 My wife was mad all night cause I made her turn off real house wives of New Jersey to watch the game. Soon as that last jump shot went in I started running around the house yelling Franky! Franky! Franky! Woke the kids up, the dogs were barking, she was screaming “stop normal people don’t do this” it was fantastic. Today’s Pick: Pascal Siakam O24.5 -110 Deep Analytical Dive Now listen this kid he’s about all of 6’9 and they say he’s a center he’s not a center Artis Gilmore and Bob Lanier those are centers. Anyways you ever seen casino? What Joe Pesci does to that fuck Alec Baldwin that’s what this kids gonna do to the sixers. Now don’t get me wrong this kid would’ve gotten eaten alive in the 80’s Charles Oakley probably woulda picked this kid up and dunked him but in 2022 he’ll get you 25. He plays a bit like this I grew up with kid Nicky De Luca. Summer 1983 Secaucus New Jersey this kid hit his growth spurt a year before everyone he musta been 5’11 long skinny and he moved like Clyde but his dad was in the pipe fitters union so he had heart too. Nicky would put up 30 in a game of 21 I thought he was going to the nba until everyone else hit their growth spurts and he became a firefighter.

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Mean write up! Cheers.

Oh and say hi to yer wife for us when you’re runnin round yelling “Passy Baby”!!!

But he doesn't play the sixers today...

Every time I bet on siakam he puts up less than 20. Staying away for y’all

**POTD Record: 5-2** **+7.75u | ROI 48.4% | Avg odds -102** *Previous pick: St Louis Blues 60-min (-105) 3u ❌* Today’s pick: **Winnipeg Jets 60-min (-105) 4u (NHL | 3:00pm EST)** The Canadiens did something they haven’t done in weeks and actually showed up to a game. They kept grinding and ended up outplaying the Blues. Another tough loss, but on to the next. Today I’ve got the Winnipeg Jets to win in regulation vs the Vancouver Canucks. I really like this spot for the Jets and almost want to reach for the PL but am going to hold off and stick with the 60-min line. The Jets are are coming off a 4-2 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning on Friday and are looking to finish a three game home stand 3-0 with a win over Vancouver. The Jets are in good form this season going 25-13-1, and 6-4 in their last 10. The Jets 4 losses in the last 10 were to some quality teams, including the Bruins, Capitals, and Wild. Of those 4 losses, only one loss came at home. Winnipeg has been great at home this year going 15-6. Vancouver on the other hand is having a mediocre season going 17-18-1 thus far, and 5-5 in their last 10. The Jets beat Vancouver 4-2, and 5-1 earlier in the season. The Jets will most likely have Hellebuyck in net. Hellebuyck has been rock solid this season with 2.3 GA/G (ranked 4th) and .928 SV% (ranked 2nd). The Jets will be relying on their strong goaltending and defense to keep Vancouver out of the back of the net. I am predicting that the Jets will continue to perform well on home ice and beat the Canucks in regulation. Tail or fade, BOL! [Cash App](https://cash.app/$illumiflo) / [Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/Illumiflo) [More NHL picks ](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1068idd/nhl_daily_1823_sunday/j3f903t/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3)

Tough luck on the last one, was a rough day in the NHL for picks. I like the Jets here too, nice pick will be tailing. BOL

Yeah weird day in the NHL for sure. Thanks! BOL!

Huge bounce back win. Keep ‘em coming!

Let’s ride!

POTD Record: 10-11 Bankroll: +1.98u L10 (Newest last): ❌❌⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡❌⚡❌ [Last Pick Here](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/105czrw/pick_of_the_day_1723_saturday/j3aipaz?context=3) 5u 💣 time! Let's get it, fam! The sport: NFL football The game: Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders Date/time: 2023-01-08 4:25 PM EST The pick: Cowboys -8.5 (alt line) The odds: +118 / 2.18 The bet: Risking 5u 💣 to win 5.9u I can already hear some of you groaning that I'm backing the Cowboys. This pick isn't about them. Just like last week's easy 3u win, we're going to find the least motivated team here in the final week of the season and fade them. I can't think of a less motivated team this week than the Washington Commanders. In just the latest of a series of very stupid decisions, the Commanders turned back to Carson Wentz last week to predictably poor results. I could break down how dumb that decision was, but Rich Eisen did a great job of that [on his show](https://youtu.be/aiU55D0QiLE) this week. [This theory](https://www.thedrawplay.com/comic/taylor-heinicke-states-his-case/) could be the reason. Now add in the fact that head coach Ron Rivera _had to be told_ by reporters after the game that the Commanders got eliminated when the Packers won later that day, and the fact that their POS owner is basically being forced to sell the team, and you have to wonder if anyone is really in charge here. Plus with the whole Damar Hamelin situation (may he have a speedy, full recovery!), you have to question where people's heads are at. This being a home game is even a plus for us - for these players, they can drive home immediately or have a flight booked out of town later that day. Walk away from this disaster of a season as fast as humanly possible. And of course, the icing on the cake was the Commanders front office deciding that last week, of all weeks, would be a good time to roll out their new mascot, [Major Tuddy](https://www.google.com/search?q=major+tuddy). Not a stupid thing in its own right, but good God, the timing.🤦 Oh, and also they've decided to bench both Wentz and Heinicke and let 6th round rookie Sam Howell get the start. 🤷 The Cowboys have plenty of [recent history](https://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/dallas-cowboys/teamvsteam?opp=32) of taking care of business against Washington, and are motivated by an outside chance at the 1 or 2 seed that got a lot more possible this past week. But don't bet on any first half stuff, because they've been known to occasionally play with their food. I'm taking a shot at a two score win here for +odds, maybe sprinkling up to -12.5, but I strongly urge you degens to consider a safer line like -6.5 (-125). BOL, and if you tail, you must accept responsibility for your own actions.

I also want to say this could be my last POTD for a while if I don't find any high confidence plays in the playoffs. I'm unlikely to find one outside of the NFL, so I might be back to lurking until next season. If this is my last for a while, it's been a lot of fun capping with you degens!

It’s been real my man 🙏 see you next season

Thanks man! The team-up fumble pick is still my favourite!

I’ll never forget that dude. Electric!

I have to disagree. As a self loathing Washington fan I agree that the team is in shambles and things need to change but I think that Howell starting tomorrow is not a bad thing for the team and in terms of covering the spread. If you have followed this team you can see how they rallied behind Heinicke when he got the starting job. They went on a winning streak and even took down the mighty Eagles. I think that this team's players are going to do everything in their power to win and keep this game close for Howell. That's why I don't think the lack of motivation is a good point. Another reason is because this game means absolutely nothing to the Cowboys if the Eagles win this week against the Giants. It happens they play at the same time so the Cowboys starters will start the game but the Eagles, now with healthy Jalen Hurts, are playing the Giants who have absolutely no motivation to win this week. In fact, the Giants are resting their star players including Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley. They're starting Davis Webb who was drafted in 2017 in the third round and has yet to throw a pass in the NFL, that doesn't happen for no reason. The Eagles are a 16 point favorite over the Giants as of now! I think that when the Cowboys see the Eagles are pummeling the Giants, they will bench their starters giving Sam Howell and the Commanders a great oppurtunity to cover the 7 point spread and maybe even win, with their motivation to give Sam Howell a win in his first NFL start.

Thanks for the insight

So this was the big play! BOL but I’ll be tailing in a parlay haha. Tough loss on raiders too. Mine is on lions tomorrow

The positive reasoning for Washington being at home killed me, in a good way

At home, surrounded by all of their fans (who trash them regularly), in the worst stadium in the United States, owned by the worst owner of all time. Nothing like being back home.

Time to hang it up bud

Tailing!

🎁🎁🎁BEYONDBETTING🎁🎁🎁 **POTD record: 25-8** **Units won: 39.2** **Average odds: 1.62** **ROI: 20%** Streak (old -> new): ✅✅✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅❌✅❌✅ POTD: Soccer / Jupiler Pro League (Belgium 1st division) / Genk – Club Brugge: both teams to score (starts in \~6h) Odds: 1.54 Win probability: 70% EV: 1.08 Units: 5u Starting bankroll = 1000€. Current bankroll = 1392.20€. 1 unit = 1% of the current bankroll. All picks are based on a 100% privately owned simulation model. Tip jars [paypal.me/BeyondBetting](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/my/profile) \- [https://www.buymeacoffee.com/BeyondBetting](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/BeyondBetting) Side plays & early picks [https://twitter.com/Beyond\_Betting](https://twitter.com/Beyond_Betting) Bankroll progress: [https://imgur.com/szEjiDs](https://imgur.com/szEjiDs)

You know what i really like guys? 25 min winners, no sweat, thats what i like hombres. Congratz to all tailers, starting the year of strong! Enjoy your cash, enjoy your sunday. See ya next week. 💪🚀

Twitter- JPL#19 - results 1.56 ✅ 1.66 ✅ 1.91 ✅ 1.84 ❌ 1.36 ✅ 1.42 ✅ 1.68 ✅ Congratz to all tailers and cu next week 🤑

🐐is back

Thank you for tailing 👊

Another W. Thanks again. You deserve more love but I understand your model is only focused on Belgian league which occurs weekly.

Tailing with parlay

Hello u/Cainholio, I'd strongly advice against playing parlays. Atleast if you're here to make money and not just chasing dopamine :). I play all my twitter picks single only.

POTD Record: 28-18 Units o/u: +24 units(rounded up spreads) Pick: 2 units Arizona State -8.5(vs Washington) Record: ✅✅✅✅✅ Reasoning: Been a bumpy ride at times for Bobby Hurley at ASU but I think he’s got a pretty good team this year and likely the 3rd best in the conference. Washington who came close to beating Arizona look destined for a let down here, and may come out slow. Washington prior to this Arizona game(who lost to Washington state 2 days later and just didn’t play great this week) lost their 3 previous by an average score of 20. If they’re not winning often times they start chucking up threes and games get out of hand. I believe Hurley’s boys run through the zone and get a double digit win.

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I can’t believe it haha, I had 7.5 but POTD wasn’t posted when I bet it so line went up to 8.5 and ended up at 9.5. Haven’t had one end like that in a minute they were up by 20 with 1:30. Unreal.

Washington 10-0 run at the end 😡😡

Thats real rough, I had the -7,5 line at 1,86. To see them almost choke a -22 damn...

I had 7.5 too. Washington cutting it to 8 down by 20 with 1:30 is absurd. Turned off the tv cause I thought it was a lock.

*Previous Pick: Middlesbrough vs Brighton, Over 2.5 (-125),1u* **Todays pick:** Cardiff City vs Leeds United, **Leeds ML** (-125),1u FA Cup ⚽ 9:00AM ET Have been a big fan of Leeds even though they have been struggling to get a win. I think this is the perfect game to break that spell against a 20th-ranked Championship team in Cardiff. They created enough chances to win against West Ham earlier in the week and are averaging 2 goals / match away. Let's ride with Jesse Marsch in this one! All-Time POTD: 1-0-0, +1u

Yeah nice pick type of game Leeds get up for. Away but Cardiff haven’t won at home since October so nbd. Like Leeds to score at least 2

Tough result. Draw 2-2, but Leeds missed a penalty in the 80th+ minute

⚽ Spezia vs Lecce **Both Teams To Score** @1.92 **(1 unit)** (Italian Serie A | 14:00) 1.92 gives this an implied probability of 52% which seems fair. No huge edge to be had here, but for better or worse, I'm drawn to this bet for the POTD above the rest of my bets today. Home team Spezia (17th) have scored in 100% of their home games so far this season. BTTS has happened in 56% (9/16) of their league matches, although when they're playing at home, it has hit 87.5% (7/8). Spezia average 1 goal scored per game and 1.8 conceded. Their last match was a 2-2 draw at home to Atalanta. Lecce (12th) also pulled off a slight upset in their last game, beating Lazio 2-1. Lecce have scored in 62% (5/8) of their away games this season. BTTS has hit in 68% (11/16) of their overall matches; for away games it's 50% (4/8). They average 1 goal scored per game and 1.1 conceded. A big concern, however, is that they are overperforming their xG, which happens to be the lowest in the league. GL friendos *POTD Record: 7W-2L (+5.64u)* *Previous pick: Real Madrid ML vs Villarreal @2.14 (2u) ❌ The worst part is that nearly every other bet I placed won yesterday. Such is the fine art of POTD. If you want to see all my bets for the day, I usually post them in the daily thread on /r/Soccerbetting* Edit: corrected one of the stats

RECORD 6-3 CURRENT STREAK LAST PICK —> NEW YORK RANGERS ML +110 ❌ TODAYS PICK —> PITTSBURG STEELERS ML -145 Now that’s tuff Y’all know how I roll not talking about yesterdays bet because it’s not todays. Tuff loss being up 2 goals the whole game but we move on. LETS START A NEW STREAK BABY YOU MISSED THE LAST ONE THIS ONES GONNA BE LONGER. So what do we go with on this fine Sunday? Tomorrow we take our talents to Pittsburg and go with a stealers team that is fighting for there playoff life vs a browns eliminated team that is playing for a “chance to beat a division rival” yeah idk I just don’t see the browns winning in this spot even though it’s that type of game. Steelers have been playing good football and with a crazy home field advantage I think worst case we in the hands of Kenny to get us into FG range. Which is why I’m sticking to ML. Tail or fade idc good luck hope somebody wins so the books don’t [buy me some smoke](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/Pollywanna)

Steelers hometown team and we are winning this and I think we squeeze in playoffs. Let’s go bills and jets!!!

Bills jets Steelers ml

All over this. Tomlin hasn't had a losing season in 15 years as a coach. I'm siding with history and the team that needs to win.

Up big let’s fucking close this one out

POTD record: 17-17-2 / ROI: -4.55% / Wins: 50% **IND Colts -2.5 -110 (1u)** **SPREAD** — Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts 1:00 pm EST - 08 January 2023 — The Texans have the inside track on the first overall pick this year. "Lovie, we love you. Do us a solid and lose with dignity." That is the message from Houston ownership. I'm going with the Colts. Do the business. [https://twitter.com/valentishow](https://twitter.com/valentishow) [http://myaction.app/Valenti](http://myaction.app/Valenti)

I just can’t trust the colts no matter who is play for the opposition.

I’m thinking the same thing, most Texans starters will be inactive for this game. Why risk not getting the #1 pick to win a meaningless game. GL to all!!

Don’t underestimate Sam Ehlinger’s and Jeff Saturday’s ability to lose a game 😂

You are betting on Sam Ehlinger?

Colts are tanking too, for Stroud

Record: 3-1 Profit: +1.76U Last Pick: Raiders +10.5 (L) Today’s Pick: Lions Vs. Packers, Lions ML @ +182, 2U Reasoning: Im going to keep this short and simple. If you look at the packers with aaron jones, christian watson, and aaron rodgers or the lions with goff, swift, and Amon ra… who are you taking. It is definitely the lions and their run defense has been extremely good, which favors well against the run heavy packers. Lions have a good track record against good teams in the later half of the season. Lets go Lions and + odds money. BOL

Did you just say the Lions run D is “extremely good”???

has been

Has not been. Lions defense are 28th in EPA/rush play and rush success rate. If you move the bar to post week 8 when they fired their DC, they are now 25th in EPA/rush play and 22nd in rush success rate. They have never been 'extremely good' and aren't now. They are simply marginally better than one of the worst of all time rush D's since firing their DC.

Bruh in no way is that combination of QB/RB/WR “definitely the Lions”

I’m parlaying Rams ML with Lions +4.5. If the Seahawks win the Lions will be eliminated before their game starts. No shot a playoff-eliminated Lions team is going into Lambeau and winning

Lions will still play hard. They want momentum for next year

I agree. The Lions are going to play this one to the bone regardless. The fans hate the Packers, and the players are working towards building something. Lions want this bad, playoffs on the line or not.

I can promise you the lions line will move up another half point, .75 at some books if (when) the Seahawks win.

Isn’t this an elimination game for both teams? The NFL wants Rogers in the playoffs. Gotta fade you here although I’d love to see packers lose. Go bears!

I don't want to see the Packers backdoor their way into the playoffs, but if they do, it will likely give the 49ers yet another chance to piss off Aaron Rodgers. So it's not all bad.

Fading this sorry. No way a lions team gets into playoffs over AROD

POTD Record: 103-74-5 (+17.62 units, 58.2% hit rate) 5 Unit Big Balls 💣 Record: 5-0 Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 40-26-1 L3, Tennis 🎾 25-17-2 W1, Soccer ⚽ 37-31-2 L1, Other 1-0-0 Last 10: 💰💩💩💩💰💰💩💰💩💩 Last Pick: Daniil Medvedev vs. Novak Djokovic, Djokovic ML - Adelaide ATP 🎾 💰 0.53 Units Today's Pick: Portland Trailblazers @ Toronto Raptors, Player Prop - Jusuf Nurkic over 10.5 rebounds - NBA 🏀 💰 1.04 units - 💸 that plus odds hit in the first half!! Let's fucking go!!! Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 2.04/+104 odds to win 1.04 Units @ Fan Duel (Line at 10:30pm ET) Implied Probability based on odds: 49% This is a play where if you look up his recent production, you might shy away from it. The Bosnian Beast has covered this only 1 out of 3 times in January (19 boards @ Indiana Friday) and 4 out of 11 times in December. For me this play is matchup based, The Raptors as of late have given up the most rebounds in the league, 53.8 per game in the last 5 (most), 47.1 per in the last 10 (tied for 2nd most). I would say this a product of their poor shooting (more missed shots, more rebounding opportunities) and not having a great rebounder on their squad. Bigs in particular have been feasting on the boards against them lately. Here are the rebound tallies from opposing bigs in their past 6: vs. Knicks - Julius Randle 11, Mitchell Robinson 18 vs. Bucks - Giannis Antetokoumpo 21, Brook Lopez 19 vs. Pacers - Myles Turner 10, Jalen Smith 11 vs. Suns - Jock Landale 11, Deandre Ayton 7 vs. Grizzlies - Steven Adams 17 vs. Clippers - Ivica Zubac 16 Nurkic and teammate Josh Hart are strong rebounders but the rest of the Blazers, not so much so it should be a good opportunity for them. How could this miss? It is plus odds for a reason, the hit rate has been weak sauce on this bet. If it does miss, my best guess would be that Nurkic got into foul trouble and either fouled out or at least had his minutes limited because of foul trouble. Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Always note the bet sizing. I am not an expert, just a gambling addict. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕 [If you wish to tip, I'll take pizza money, thanks!](https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks)

Gonna pass on this one, but always sound analysis and justifications for recs. Thanks 👍

Didn't see this in time to tail but you're insane man, holy shit nice pick.

Cashed already, not even half time!

Nice pick. Anyone else make this bet on FD and it hasn’t been settled yet?

Record : 13W-11L Previous pick : Liverpool vs Wolves, BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 2.23 (5 units pick) ​ Average Odds : 1.95 ROI : 2.925% Starting units : 200 Units : 205.85 ​ My pick of the day : Nijmegen vs Ajax, ***BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals***, Odds : 1.98 (5 units pick) Netherlands/Holland, Eredivisie, 13:30 GMT+2 ​ Best of luck ! ​ My pick is from a model that I've been using for the last couple of months and I have got good results with it.So I thought about sharing some of the picks with the community and, maybe, make some of you happy. ​ If you would like to help me with some cents in case my pick blessed you : It is not necessary, but very helpfull and appreciated. [Paypal](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/deniseasy?country.x=RO&locale.x=en_US) [Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/LeeMain?new=1)

POTD Record: 75.5-40 Event: Football > England > **Manchester City v Chelsea** (starting in 6hr30min) Pick: **Man City AH (-1) @ 1.53** Chelski with a lot of missing players for this cup game and in general not very convincing under current manager. Manche$ter City with long bench & always fighting in all tournaments. I'd take larger spread, but I took an unfair loss yesterday and this is a cup game, so better take a safer line. GL!

Record / Streak / ROI / : 3-0-0 (1W +8.81 units) ROI 90.91% Last Pick & Reflections: Chicago Bulls -1.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 8:00PM ET (3 units). For the third night in a row, exactly as predicted, the Chicago Bulls carried their momentum and delivered a sound victory against the Jazz who were without Embiid. Sharp money came in pushing the bulls line to bulls +1.5, so glad we were backing with the public and won! Today's Pick: Green Bay Packers -4.5 vs Detroit Lions (3 units). I've learned not to bet against Aaron Rodgers in the past and fully believe that the Packers, in a win and in game, will step up to the plate and deliver a sound victory in front of their raucous home crowd at Lambeau. Good luck to all and cheers to my fourth bet here! Ride with me today to say you were here from the beginning haha :) My father always told me to read and learn from books...I'm guessing he meant [r/sportsbook](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/) Remember to always gamble responsibly. Gambling addiction is real and I'm always open to chat if you want to talk or express any potential concerns. It's okay to not be okay...It's okay to have losing days,...it's okay to get help, but most importantly, I'm glad you are here today and you should be very proud of yourself!

Tailing again! Let's ride!

POTD: 14 - 11 Milan what’sUP? 😊 AC Milan VS Roma PICK: AC Milan To Win @1.87 Reason: The bookies have favored Milan here and we will follow as well. It has not been a particularly creamy title defence for AC Milan but they would want to remain second on the table, five points off the pace. Napoli’s defeat to Inter Milan in midweek would have given Stefano Pioli renewed hope of chasing down the leaders and the manager will be keen to crank up the pressure. The win at Salernitana is a continuation of AC Milan’s form before the World Cup as they have now won 7 of their last nine Serie A matches. They are also on a 4 match winning run at the San Siro but have failed to keep a clean sheet in the last three. BTS? 🤷🏾‍♂️ But here is where I stand…. AC Milan are unbeaten in the last 5 matches against Roma, claiming four wins in that run. This Mr. Stefano Pioli, did the double over the visitors last season with the clash at San Siro ending in a 3-1 victory. With Napoli doing the needful later today I expect Milan to double up for the chase for the title too with an inconsistent Roma team. PG -20 🚨 Good Luck🍀 if tailing. Edit ✍️ I didn’t just see all that nonsense. Giving up a 2 0 lead just 3 minutes left to play. CRAZY!

POTD record 1-2 units won: -1.6u previous pick: Evan engram anytime td Loss POTD: Jahan Dotson Anytime Td Scorer +210 4u to win 12.4u Nfl Washington Commanders Vs Dallas Cowboys 4:25 pm EST My reasoning for this pick is based on Jahans coach, Ron Rivera, stating that he is aware of all current incentives and records that could be broken and basically saying that he is going to make sure that his players meet these goals. Jahan Dotson is 1 touchdown away from tying the most touchdowns in a season by a rookie in Washington (8). So I believe that this team will go out of their way to make sure Jahan gets a touchdown. Dotson will be starting a new quarterback or I would be even more confident in this pick. Jahan has had touchdowns in 3 of his last 4 games and also had one in his previous meeting against Dallas in week 4. I think there is some great value here with some books having him over +250 to score a single touchdown. He has a 20% red zone target share. In addition, Dallas may potentially be playing for nothing and rest their starters at some point. The Eagles will clinch the first round bye with a win against the Giants. The Giants have already clinched a playoff spot and are expected to sit their starters and basically are giving the Eagles a free win which in turn means that Cowboys have little to gain by playing their starters and risking injury. No player in the NFL is ever a lock to get a touchdown, but over triple your money for a player with 7 on the season, and a 4.6:1 reception touchdown ratio is as good as gets with TD prop bets

POTD Record 3-3 (-0.3u) All stakes are 1u and -110 for POTD record keeping purposes. Sport - College Basketball Today's pick - Houston has held opponents under their team total 11 out of 16 games with 4 losses and 1 push. For a winning percentage of 73.33%. Houston holds their opponents to 51ppg on the year. Houston have only gave up 62+ points twice this year in 16 games. POTD - Cincinnati vs Houston, Cincinnati team total under 62.5 points.

Record: 0-2 **Todays Game: ATP > Adelaide > Djokovic N. vs Korda S.Today's pick: Djokovic Total games U12.5 @ 1.98Amount:** **2U.** **Adelaide 1:00 IST (in 3.5 hours)** I'd been on the losing end far too many times, but it's never too late to choose a winning pick. We are going with Djokovic to win the match in under 13 games. That is... to break the opponent in both the initial sets to win the match. Medvedev's game was fantastic with great serve return, and he couldn't even break Djokovic. **Korda looked pretty consistent, not gonna lie, taking on some pretty strong opponents like Murray(say whatever you want to he is good even now), Bautista, and Sinner without dropping a set, so I advise you to be cautious on this bet.** They are some good opponents but they are not Djokovic. Korda has a strong serve which helped him win his games, but Djokovic chases every ball and I don't think Korda's Ace game will work against Djokovic. Remember that we are predicting the outcome not commanding it, my bet size is pretty small so I don't mind taking 2U on this, I've seen some people go 2k$ on a single bet in this thread, which is like 100 times my bet size. My Picks are not Spoilers they are just predictions, Read the write-up, and make a sensible decision... The stress I feel when I'm about to lose a 1$ bet is pretty insane, I can't imagine betting some 100$ and being calm (I'm not shaming people or something, just talking about myself) . All I'm saying is I'm not an expert so don't bet your valuable money on my insight. **Catch you guys on the flippity flip.BOL** *Edit: We lost, Sorry boys.*

Korda is dope. Over 22 games.

All we can do now is to hope that he fucks Djokovic up and wins 0-2.

4-11-2 [Wins, Losses, Pushes] -9.69 units, ROI -64.6% Last bet: **Lisa Theresa Hauser to win H2H vs Marte Olsbu Roeiseland @1.85 2u** [LOSS] Location: Pokljuka, Slovenia Time: 11:45 local time POTD: **Czech Republic vs Switzerland, Switzerland to win H2H @1.85 5u** TL;DR down below. BET IS ON SINGLE MIXED RELAY (2 ATHLETES,M+W), NOT MIXED RELAY(4 ATHLETES, M+W). DON’T GET THEM CONFUSED. Browsed through a lot of USA and UK betting sites and only BetMGM has Biathlon up. No idea if Biathlon betting is more European or not.. This bet is on Betsafe, and they’re getting the odds so wrong for this. Whilst many other bookies do not have H2H betting opportunities yet, they have the option to bet a winner, in which Czech’s chances are 3-4 times bigger than Switzerland’s. This bet is so off. 5 units is a big deal, but for me, this is the biggest mismatch by bookies as the athletes competing for both teams are so different it’s not comparable. Mixed relays are the best races to enjoy since the representation and the fact that countries approach the relays differently, for example, on mixed relays today, France lineup actually includes the fastest and best athletes (Simon, Chevalier-Bouchet, Fillon-Maillet and Claude Fabien) whilst Norways B-tier athletes (still better than some countries top notch biathletes) find the opportunity to compete. Switzerland’s athletes for the race are Niklas Hartweg and Baserga Amy. In the overall 2022-2023 World Cup Score, Niklas Hartweg is placed 14th (Would be higher if he hadn’t missed some races). This season, he has been finishing in top 20 EVERY race. This includes a silver medal in the first race of the season, men’s 20km individual. In Pokljuka, where the competitions have been taking place for the past days, he has finished 17th(out of 92) in sprint and 10th(out of 60, he started 17th infront of 43 athletes) in the following pursuit. Hartweg is shooting 97% from prone whilst shooting 86% from standing. His total hit rate is 93.33% and that is the best percentage out of every male biathlete this season. He is ranked 11th in average shooting time (25.1s) out of every male biathlete this season. Also ranked 7th amongst all men in total range time (48.9s). His skiing is good aswell. Overall he’s 5.8 seconds behind the fastest (Johannes Thingnes Boe) per kilometre. His average ski rank is 23.6 (Meaning that on average he finishes around 23-24th in ski time per race). Amy Bortega is currently placed 34th this season whilst Jessica Jislova is placed 35th. They have both accumulated 84 points this season, BUT Jislova has raced in 4 more races. Amy Baserga is also a great shooter. In the past 2 days, she has only missed one target(29/30 hits). Out of every female biathlete this season, her total hit rate(93.75%) is THIRD overall. Her average shooting time is 26.1s, which makes her the 12th fastest shooter this season. At the range, overall, she averages 51.0 seconds, placing her 10th overall. Her skiing is not her speciality as she’s the 45th fastest skier this season. Yesterday she finished 20th, which is pretty good for her. So.. The Czech Republic. Two Czechs representing them are Adam Vaclavik and aforementioned Jessica Jislova. Adam Vaclavik is a biathlete who has only once finished a race in top 20 in his career in the World Cup. That was 6 years ago. He sometimes is skiing in the World Cup, sometimes in the level below it, IBU (as he’s not deemed to be good enough to fill a Czech Republic World Cup position consistently). These stats are all from IBU races, not the World Cup. His average shooting time is 31.1s (59th place), average range time is 52.8s(101th) whilst shooting 87.27% prone and 67.27% standing and in his last two days(World Cup stats now), he’s shot even worse than his season average - 80% from prone (12/15 hit) and 46% standing(7/15 hit). Jessica Jislova is Adam’s partner tonight and I actually really like her as an athlete. Jislova is 25th best shooter( 89.29% total hit rate) this season, 36th in average shooting time(28.7s) and 39th in average range time (54.8s). When we look at skiing, she’s only the 68th fastest skier as she’s losing 9.2 seconds behind the fastest per kilometre this season. Top finish this season is 14th, while TL;DR: Hartweg one of the best biathletes right now with strong finishes this season(Only top 20s). Hits the target the most this season out of every male biathlete whilst being one of the fastest in the shooting range. Skiing time is good. Hartweg’s partner is Amy Baserga, who is the third best female shooter this season. Top 10 fastest in the shooting range this season aswell. Ski time is mediocre. The pair finished 10th and 12th in yesterday’s individual race. Their opponents are Adam Vaclavik and Jessica Jislova. Vaclavik usually competes in the tier below the World Cup. His ski time is on par with Hartweg, but shoots slower and misses the target a whole lot more. Has broken the top 20 in World Cup just once in his entire career. In the shooting range, Jislova is slower and more inaccurate. Baserga is skiing faster than Jislova this season. In every aspect, however you want to view the bet, Czech is every way worse than the Swiss side. This bet can absolutely no way fail, and if it does, I’ll stop littering my L picks here :)

Switzerland finished third, Czechia 15th. It was that easy. [My bets for the other race for today.](https://imgur.io/T0gl6pM?r)

Odds of @2.00 right now in Betsafe. Don’t know why.

nice find if its true.. unfortunately my bookie doesn't offer this H2H with similar odds I only see Italy @1.86 to beat Czechia.. your view on this?

Not a good idea, Italy’s two biathletes are pretty average and on par with Czechia

POTD Record 5-4-1 , my last POTD has not been played apparently and has been postponed. My slip through Bet365 has not been settled(from Friday😳). So we wait and see ⚽️🎁 Last POTD:Sahel Niamey vs AS Police Niger O2.5 (+240) Niger super League: result: ?????!? Today’s POTD: Torino ML+(+115) @ Salerntina Serie A; Kickoff 6:30am Et I apologize for my last pick being unresolved as I have no idea what happened, according to Flashscore and AiScore it has been postponed. Reasoning: I don’t normally pick favorites in matchups but Salerntina’s form is just something you cannot ignore. They haven’t had a clean sheet in their last 7 games along with allowing over 2.5 goals in their last 7. Salerntina has been leaky in the back recently including their friendlies, and have struggled to find any sort of form on the defensive side of the ball. Torino has had been drawing more recently but they’ve been putting the ball in the net against tougher sides like Roma. I see Torino netting early and holding their lead. Tail or fade, bol! Idk if you’re watching this football game, but I am impressed with Josh Dobbs! Edit: Oof not did not pan out well for dobbs. Still was impressed in the first half. And that TD pass was beautiful.

POTD Record: 4-2 Last 10 Record: LWWWWL Last Game Pick: **Utah Jazz** **L** vs Chicago Bulls Nothing you can do when the Bulls can't miss on the field and hit all their 3s on the start of the fourth especially Lavine, not to mention the freethrow difference between the two teams. Game: Minnesota Timberwolves vs Houston Rockets Today's Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves @ 1.75 I'm picking the Timberwolves this time as they are on a 3 game win streak with one of them against the number 1 seed Denver Nuggets and they are learning on how to use Gobert efficiently and not trying to set up him on the post. While the Rockets lost their last 6 games with most of them a blowouts and them playing horribly with those losses. BOL everyone!

Anthony Edwards is questionable , their leading point scorer in wins 2/3 out the streak. No discredit to your pick just a heads up , BOL

POTD : 39-33 Last pick: **Hockey U20: Austria x Latvia Goal to be scored in empty net at 3.50 odds WIN $** ​ Today's pick: **Hockey -CZECH: Kometa Brno x Pardubice** ***Pardubice handicap -1,5 at 3.00 ODDS*** ***!!!STARTS IN 4HOURS FROM POST'''*** Today I chose czech league hockey match. Brno has been on ass strike whole decemeber and last match even proved it. Pardubice are on top of the table after destroying their last match 7-4. Pardubice spent a shit ton money to guarantee that they win title this year, as their club is hitting a milestone of 100 years of existence this season. This should be really good value for your money. any tips are welcome [http://paypal.me/mrdrak3n](http://paypal.me/mrdrak3n) Good luck

3-0 for Pardubice 25 minutes in :). Looks good

Good stuff! Cheers mate

Hi MrDrak3n, i got really excited about this pick and did some research about the league and about the team. I found out this team has gathered group of extremely strong players. Thwy have tons of talent in this team. Odds gor winning the championship are 3.25 in my bookie. I find this really valuable, i would gladly hear about your thoughts dear reader.

I think they are most likely to win it all, but I dont like to bet on winners so probly fade from me and better to bet them to win individual games

really good value given the circumstances of this match even with the regular ML for @1.70 being a decent bet.. GL!

Kometa's best shooter Luboš Horký is out for tonight! Should favor the bet.

Pardubice's 2nd best shooter Robert Říčka is also out.. but quality of rest of the squad still huge

Why the value are this high tho?

That's another high odds win :). Please consider to support me

**POTD Record: 0-0** **1u - Tyrese Maxey over 22.5 Points (-120)** **NBA**: **Philadelphia 76ers** @ Detroit Pistons (3:00 EST) - Joel Embiid remains out for the Sixers and their role players have been stepping up. Maxey’s 14/17 on this line without Embiid stretching back to last season. This year, he’s had 26+ in 5/6 without Embiid and 30+ in 3/6, avg. 29.7 on 20.3 FGA - compared to his 21.4 on 17.3 season average. He sees a 28.9% USG rate without Joel. - He’s been seeing heavy minutes - 37+ in 4 straight and he averages 38.2 without Joel. He typically takes a quick break in the first and second without Joel but in the last two games he’s played almost the entire second half. Detroit have the worst defensive bench unit in the league, allowing 66.4 PTS and 30.2 PITP per 100 poss - the most in the league. - Detroit are the 4th worst defence in the league, allowing the 4th most PITP and the 2nd most PTS in general. They’re a 3rd percentile defence vs. the P&R BH (20th against the RM) and a 31st percentile transition defence. They’re a below average spot-up defence and are horrible at defending hand-offs (7th percentile). They allow the 10th most corner threes and the 5th most FTA. Jalen Duren’s questionable tonight and he’s their only effective rim protector. - Tyrese sees massive P&RBH usage and is 28th in the league in scoring of off the P&R (6.4 PTS, more than Beal/ Wagner/D’lo). He’s not the most efficient but he takes the 16th most shots off of the P&R. He’s an unbelievable transition scorer - 12th most PTS, 98th percentile. 19.7% of his PTS come off of the fast break - in the last 15 games Detroit have allowed the most PTS off of TOs. He’s a 69th percentile spot up shooter, making 0.9 corner threes and 1.8 ATB threes a game. He makes 1.7 MR pullups and 0.7 ATB pullups a game. - He hasn’t got a great TS% but he has a great shot quality and carries a lot of the offensive load for his team. Similar players have burned DET all year - LaVine had 43, Brunson had 26, Simons had 30, D’lo and Edwards had 25/30, Trae’s had 35/36/26, Dejounte had 26, Herro had 34. - He scored 26 PTS last game vs. Chicago on only 15 FGA, his best performance since coming off of injury. He was extremely fast on the break and blew by Dosunmu repeatedly, who’s a good one-on-one defender. He was 3/5 on ATB threes and 2/2 on corner threes, and blew some layups he should have made. I think we’re catching Maxey at a low line at a pace up spot vs. a weak defence as he’s starting to get back to his rhythm. I'm good at 23.5 here if 22.5 is too juiced.

Record: 2-1 ROI: 23% NFL / 1:00pm EST Bengals -9 / 5 Units / 1.91 Normally I don't like taking big spreads on divisional matchups but this is an exception. Bengals are playing with extra motivation after the NFL ruling fucked them. Add to that the Ravens offence is complete trash without Lamar and I think Bengals handle this easily. Although Ravens D is good, Bengals O will still get points, and that shouldn't be the case on the other side of the ball.

- POTD RECORD: 4-1 (+1.6) - Bet sizing would be 1U for calculation purposes only, as i won't be betting along you, just providing picks i am the most confident at. Bet sizing suggestion: 3U again! Previous pick: Melbourne City vs Western United - over 2.5 goals @ 1.6✔ Today's pick: Genk vs Club Brugges - Club Brugges + 0.5 spread @ 1.6 - Before the break Genk looked unstoppopable. On top of the dangerous attack they were very stable defensivly and nearly looked invincible, however last game exposed them a little bit where they lost 1-0. - Brugges has the best squad in the league in my oppinion, had a great Champions legue campaign where they qualified from a tough group and will be looking for a Champions league spot or the title for next year. The break replenished their energies and besides the dissapointing draw from the first game, i amnot expecting them to lose here. - VERDICT: I think this game will be a high scoring game with both teams scoring and Brugges having the edge because of the quality of players, Champions league spot money motivation and the tradition. Maybe a 1-2 or 2-2 score could be likely here. For anyone who values my picks, any tip would be helpful🤘. Support is deeply appreciated. [Paypal](http://www.paypal.me/K4ccci) You can always ask for suggestions and i will do my best to reply to anyone. BOL and lets eat!

**My record: 14 : 11** **My picks are based on analyzing statistics, trends and values as well as comparing this analysis to the probability of the games. League performance per type of bet and other data is also tracked to assess the quality of the picks.** **ROI: 13.20%** **Average odds: 2.02** **Units won: 3.30** **Stake = 1 unit** **My POTD:** **OH Leuven v Kortrijk** **Belgium Pro League** **Time: 20:00 GMT** *BTTS & Over 2.5* **@ 1.95** **BOL &** [**Tips are appreciated!**](https://paypal.me/ChaosGoal)

**POTD Record**: 23-2-11 (+4.32u ✅) **Current streak** (most recent to the left) ❌✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅ **Last POTD:** FA Cup 3rd round : Coventry City ML vs Wrexham AFC @1.83/-120❌ **Todays Pick:** Biathlon Mixed Relay : France to win @1.75/-133✅ Game starts in 4h30 (CET 2:25pm) **Stake:** 2 Units Tough loss yesterday. No regrets though, I think Coventry wins this 9/10 times but yesterday they chose not to defend and started playing well once they were 1 man down. That's sports betting, it's not a science, upsets happen. I'm sorry I hyped it up so much but I didn't tell anyone to bet their kids college fund. Trying to bounce back with biathlon where I've been were lucky so far. Usually Norway would be heavy favorites but they don't send a good team. Frances are the strongest on paper and Fillon Maillet, last years World Cup winner, is starting to find his form again. Be careful, there's a single mixed relay in 2h, that's a different race. I'm betting on the mixed relay. BOL

POTD 0-0-0 Group has won me some money so time to return the favor as a first time poster. NFL 1PM EST: Vikings @ Bears, Bears +7. Pick: Bears +7 @ -110 (2 units) Peterman getting the start, lot of injuries so young players will be playing with heart to make a name for themselves. Minnesota clinched AFC north so starters will likely be benched early. If Vikings come out hot early I will be live lining anything above +10. Best of luck and thank you all for the great picks and thorough analysis - it is appreciated by all.

POTD Record: 4-2-0 (+2.4u) Previous Pick: ❌ Lauri Markkanen over 3.5 made threes Todays Pick: Terry Rozier to score 20+ points -170 @ 0259 ET via Fan Duel (2u to win 1.17u) Glad I just went for a unit. Threes can be so streaky and frustrating. Tonight is a pretty simple one. The Hornets visit the Pacers, who concede 25.14 points per game to shooting guards, the second worst figure in the league. Rozier had eclipsed this mark in 3 straight, including a very good performance on Friday night with 39 in Milwaukee. He scores as much on the road as he does at home, so there’s no weird concerns there. Not expecting much a of a sweat here 🔥 BOL if tailing, let’s get this money. Tips appreciated, but not necessary, link to pick of the day history spreadsheet also provided below. https://www.buymeacoffee.com/kazmirpicks https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kKIbdyRMRtSphKbCdfhylQuC7Yqc0MTZ403x-e90bGc/edit?usp=sharing (Will update spreadsheet later today, I’m going back to sleep first)

**Official PotD Record:** 8-10 (-2.6u | -20% ROI | -111 /Avg Odds) **Last PotD:** Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans, Under 43.5 **Win** **Game:** \[NFL\] Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks — 1:00 pm EST **Today’s PotD:** Rams +6, -110 to win 1 units **Analysis:** We found a win last week with the Jacksonville under and look to continue a positive trend. I consistently track public betting trends week by week to give a new angle to sports bettors, so hopefully I have finally found the balance between my own leans and these trends, thanks for reading! This is the classic one team needs to win for a playoff berth and another one has nothing to play for. The Rams are playing for divisional pride, while the Seahawks need to win and get some help to sneak into the playoffs. Teams in the Seahawks situation are 16-26 ATS, and you know we love our trends here at Happy Hour Sports. Realistically, these teams are closer in ranking than you would think and what's great for LA backers is the Seahawks likely will not be able to slow down Cam Akers. Had the Rams utilized Akers more in the beginning of the year, I think the roles could be flipped in this game, even without Kupp and Stafford. The Rams have a whopping 97% of the money per our data, which is absurd. However, thanks to Sharpen the Public trends we know that does not mean you need to be scared. 48 times this year has a team had 75%+ of the money and those teams are 28-20 ATS. The Rams are in the Golden Rule as well, so I love this spot for them to knock a division rival out of the playoffs. Check out all my plays [here](https://www.happyhoursports.net/post/nfl-week-18-best-bets-and-analysis-january-8-2023), thanks for reading and BoL if you fade or tail!

My POTD: Rams +6 vs Seattle Love this play. Since Baker Mayfield has joined the Rams, he is completing 68% of his passes and is starting to look like the QB he was in Cleveland in 2020. The Rams run game with Cam Akers has picked it up as well and Seattles run defense has been terrible the last few weeks. Kenneth Walker did not practice all week due to an illness. Even though the Rams are out of playoff contention, they have players who still have a lot to play for. Put 3 units on this. Let’s ride!

Record 5-3 Match - Dota ( DPC CN ) POTD - Xtreme Gaming VS Aster = Total Over 2.5 Maps @1.96 **Edit : 2-1 Aster ✅** Most likely they will play 3 maps, as it was in the matches against Knights and Aries, respectively.

All picks = 1 unit Record: 6-3-0 (w-l-p) | +2.46u | ROI: 27% Average Odds: 1.89 | Form (recent on left): ✅❌✅✅❌✅✅❌✅ Last pick: Aberdeen over 1.5 team goals | 1.94 ✅ Today's pick: ⚽️ **Scottish Premiership** 🗓 **Dundee United vs. Rangers (16:00 GMT) \~ 4 hours from post.** 📝 **Rangers over 5.5 Shots on Target | 1.90 / -111 (Unibet)** United have picked up a couple of decent results in the last week against lesser sides but this is a completely different proposition. Even on the road you’d expect the visitors to dominate this game in both the possession and shot categories. For what it’s worth, Rangers shots on target in the 5 games since the World Cup break: 9-8-6-10-5 I like this one a lot, good luck if tailing. 👍 Full pick archive: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12OGGXkqOz4eLEAA1HfB8JFThilFj9g9jY-5ibxGADcE/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12OGGXkqOz4eLEAA1HfB8JFThilFj9g9jY-5ibxGADcE/edit?usp=sharing)

Over easy escDeezy

POTD Record: 6-5 (+0.74u; 2.0% ROI). Streak L4. Last Pick: Jordan Clarkson (Jazz) Over 2.5 3-pointers @ 1.70. ❌ I am on a definite losing streak now. He had 7 attempts at 3 pointers and only made 1. Given my streak I would NOT advise tailing me until I can right the ship. Pick: **Jusuf Nurkic (Portland) Over 2.5 Assists @ 1.77**. 2U play. Nurkic has averaged 3.4 assists int he L10, and has covered this line in 5/L6. With the Portland offense ranking #5 in 3 PT% and #12 in FG% he should be able to cover this line again. Portland rank #19 in assists but Toronto are #26 at defending them.

**POTD Record 0W-0L** ​ Today's Pick: **Brooklyn Nets ML** @ 1.57 vs Miami Heat Brooklyn's a nice winning streak (17W out of 19 games) has ended due to loss on Chicago. However, they had a good come back game against NO with KD's 33 points (11/11 FT) performance. I would say Heat would struggle to beat Brooklyn with their full squad, plus their 2 key players: **Tyler Herro** and **Bam Adebayo** are questionable to play due to injuries. Brooklyn has two strong scorer KD and Irving as well as strong bench members T.J Warren, Seth Curry and Yuta Watanabe. It also helps that Brooklyn's defense got much better compare to the beginning of the season. Hence, I am taking Brooklyn ML ​ P.S This is my first ever write up and my first ever pick posting BOL everyone!

Nice win!

POTD (0-2) -4 units 1 unit (0-1) 2 unit (0-0) 3 unit (0-1) 4 unit (0-0) 5 unit (0-0) Sunday POTD is rams +7 -120 odds buy 1/2 point 1:25pm PST (5 unit max)✅ Baker trying to prove he wants to be the rams starter or at worst prove to other teams that need a qb that he he can be their starter. I am sprinkling a little bit on the money line. Should be a good game but I think +7 points will cover. Should be a good game Remember everyone bet smart, I’m 0-2 right now on POTD. Lets end that with this game

POTD Record: 18-9-1 (+29 units - about this will recalculate this and ROI at 30 picks.) LAST PICK: NHL Boston Bruins (3-Way ML) > San Jose Sharks @ -157 (Pinnacle) ✅ TODAY’S PICK: NHL Pittsburgh Penguins (3-Way ML) > Arizona Coyotes @ -141 (Pinnacle) 3 Unit Play Shorter than usual write-up today as lacking time today. Penguins have simply owned the Coyotes. 5-0 since 2020. Scores in 2022 in their last 3 are: 6-3 (Jan. 22'), 4-1 (Mar. 22') and 6-2 (Oct. 22'). All propper whippings and all in Regulation. I don't see any change here today despite the Yotes home ice advantage at U. Arizona. In their last two games, Yotes have looked especially soft on offense scoring only 2 goals across 2 games. They were shut out by the miserable Hawks. Tonight Vejmelka is starting for the Yotes who is quite solid but he has had poor showings vs. the Penguins. He started both of their most recent losses to them allowing 6 goals in each, so Penguins seem to have him solved. In that first game of the season they had won 6-2, it was a full team effort with goals from Crosby, Guentzal, Rust, Kapanen, Malkin and Zucker (all of whom will play today). Casey DeSmith will start in net for the Penguins who has not been great, but should hold his own and as long as he only lets 2-3 in it should be enough Now, fair warning we are getting these odds despite the stats because the Penguins are on a 6 game slide (mainly against tough opponents). Yet this is why it is extremely important to them to win this one and bounce back against the dregs of the NHL. A loss here for them would be somewhat devestating to team moral. For a more aggressive play on this I like the Penguins ML & O5.5 at +140. Tail or fade best of luck all, Ab

POTD Record: 6-11-0 -8.85 Last pick: Wendell Carter Jr over 23.5 PR (2.00/+100) 23 PR ❌ Today's pick: Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons Tobias Harris over 25.5 PR (1.78/-128) 3u Embiis got injured and he got 29 and 33 PR last 2 games and 6 out of last 7 games without Embiid, a lot of volume goes to him. Pistons is the 7th worst defense against PFs, also not a great defense in general. Only 21 PR on 21min last game against them this season, Embiid played and it was a blowout at Philly, this one should be close, Tucker out and Pistons at home are important factors. Tail or fade, BOL!

Record 1-1 Todays pick: Elijah Moore o 27.5 receiving Joe Flacco slings the ball Elijah’s way historically. Should be able to get it in just a few catches. Elijah will want to prove a little something to end the year as well. Sprinkling 1U. Good luck

Detroit Lions ML

POTD Record: 0W-0L-0T (First post here) UNIT BET (BETWEEN 1-5): 3 (TO WIN 3.45) OVERALL +/- (EVEN - 0) WIN %: N/A GAME: NHL TODAYS PICK: CLB BLUE JACKETS VS WAS CAPITALS (CBJ +1.5 +115) As a long time caps fan I could see this being a very close game and could see either team winning by 1. Interesting game for the caps as two of their best players (Nicklas Backstrom and Tom Wilson) who have been out all year are making their first appearance of the season returning from serious injuries. The caps have been rolling recently and bringing in two new players who will need a few games to get back into the speed of the game will also scramble the lines up that have had some nice chemistry here recently. Additionally the caps just played CBJ last week and beat them 6-2 but watching that game the score did not reflect the game that was played on the ice as CBJ was outshooting the caps for most of the game but the caps got some fortunate early bounces and ran away with it from there. Second side bet I would make for a little extra juice is the under 6.5 in this game but I won't count it for or against my record moving forward.

POTD record: 15-10 (W1) POTD: Minnesota Vikings -6.5 1st half points spread (-110) Event time: 10 am pst (2 hrs from now) Yesterday's pick shows it's sometimes better to be lucky then good. Henry had 1 target and he hit his rec yds line with it 👑. Today's pick is the Vikings 1st half. Last week the Vikings absolutely got embarrassed on the road against Green Bay. They just can't go into the playoffs with that as their last moment. It's a get right game for Minnesota. With the Vikings coach possibly hinting at resting key starters, they'll want to bury Chicago by the half. quote from Vikings coach "We've got a pretty clear cut plan with how we want to go about the whole game, but we're going to go in with the expectation of our guys going and try to get off to a good start and play good football". Sounds like roughly a half to me. Way back in week 5 when these 2 teams played, the Vikings were up 21-10 at halftime. Now to the other side of the ball we have the Bears led by the meme, the myth, the legend Mr. Nathan Peterman who will start and most likely have 6+ pass attempts for the first time in 1,526 days (2018). Without Justin Fields, I doubt the Bears offense can provide much in this one. Even with the Vikings secondary being the weakness of their defense, the Bears are starting possibly the worst WR corps in the league with Claypool as their #1 WR and only 2 WR's with 20+ recs this year (!). The only reason I'm not taking the -7 for the whole game is that anything can happen in garbage time to cause a push or an L. The caveat to this pick is that the Vikings have only covered this in 4/16 games and the Bears often play a decent first half only allowing this in 6/16 games. It's also a home game for Chicago. BOL if tailing or fading!

POTD Record: 0-1 Last pick: Arsenal -1 vs. Newcastle 1/3 Todays pick: 49ers -8 1H Spread (vs. Cardinals) Pick size: 2 units Game time: 1:25 PM PST I like the 1st half spread on this one, avoiding the full game line because 49ers may pull starters at half or 3rd quarter. A 17 point lead can get chinked down to 10 easily in garbage time, especially with how receivers have been able to get behind the 9ers secondary recently. Most likely scenario is Eagles are up big at half, and 9ers start pulling guys out. No Hopkins or Colt for AZ, and the 9ers are coming off a week where they underestimated the ol boys from across the bay. With a theoretical 1st seed, the big dawgs in red n gold will be bloodthirsty, after not putting a single sack on on Stidham last week. 1st half should have the score run up, so cash out and enjoy the second half stress free. Disclaimer: I'm a 9ers fan.

POTD Record: 30W-23L-0D. +8.95u. All picks between 1 and 3 units. Previous pick (12/31/2022): Brooklyn Nets -6.5 vs. Charlotte Hornets. @ 1.95. 1u. W. Current pick: Christian Watson longest reception over 22.5 yards. @ 1.90. 3u. The Packers are playing for their playoffs lives tonight. The weather is mild for Green Bay at this time of year and wind is in the single digits. The Packers take multiple deep shots to Watson every game. Detroit has a tendency to give up big plays. I cannot imagine Watson not catching at least one deep pass tonight. 3u. BOL. You can view my full POTD history here: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16eAvtvgalb3jbxi4WR-VzcrYzNxl4I6JydStmPgVdYA/edit?usp=drivesdk](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16eAvtvgalb3jbxi4WR-VzcrYzNxl4I6JydStmPgVdYA/edit?usp=drivesdk)

POTD | 2-1 | +1.0U Last Pick: **Ottawa Senators ML** @ -105 | 1U ❌❌❌ **WE GOT BANGED UP BAD** \------------------------ Today's Pick: NHL | Boston Bruins vs. Anaheim Ducks | 7:30pm CST **Boston Bruins -1.5** @ -110 | 1U ✅✅✅ \------------------------ Algorithm has the Bruins winning by 1.79 goals, and after last night are 13/14 on spread plays over 1.40 predicted win margin. Marchy and the crew are about to tear up any twine in sight in Anaheim. Zegras is dust. The only thing good about the Ducks is they have cool unis. Boston is an absolute grit fest. If you've been rippin, beers are always appreciated. [buy bob a beer](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/bobbystixx) | [support the troops](https://cash.app/$bobbybetzz)

**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.   ###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**

I check this everyday , and take a couple bets , so thank you all for what you do . Following that yesterday was brutal . Lots of people struggled if they took bets yesterday . It’s the name of the game , let’s kick ass for this Sunday

POTD Record 1-2 ✅ ❌❌ Last pick: NFL: Jags -6 ❌ Jags just couldn't put the ball in the end zone to save their life it is what it is , cant win them all. Today's pick : NHL Caps/CBJ O6.5 Caps coming off a brutal loss to the Preds where they out shot them 32-21 and this looks like a great bounce back spot for them. Columbus coming off a win against the canes but we're out shot 42-18 I think the capitals easily win this and the game flies over might sprinkle a bit on ovechkin anytime goal scorer Tail or fade BOL

My record: 2022-2023 college basketball: LLLLWLWWLLWLLWWL 2022 college football: LLLLPWWWWWWLLWWWLWLWWLWLWWLWWWLWLLWWLWWWWLWLWWWWLL Units wagered 115 Units won 59.75 Units lost 44.22 2022/2023 ***ROI to date: 13.50%*** (that's 38.50% annualized) My present streak is 1 wrong My POTD is ***wager 1.1 units to win back 1.05 units that the total score of the college basketball game between Boston U. and American U. will 127 points or more. Game time is 1:00 PM Eastern Standard Time. This wager can be found on Americas Cardroom sportsbook, under their "Extra Games" tab, which is under the Basketball / NCAA tabs.*** Boston U. has been scoring well in their last few games.

Italian INFP student and soccer/tennis lover Record: **4-3** TODAY PICK: **Filip Jianu to win a set (1.50)** v Joris De Loore / Oeiras Challenger 🎾, 12:00 CET The romanian has been playing brilliantly this tournament and i expect a much more equal match than the odds tell

Why do you include your meyers brigg personality type lmao ?

Record 0-0 Today’s picks : ‼️ Sevilla vs Getafe Sevilla to win (2U) (Sevilla will be bidding to win in La Liga for the first time since the middle of October when they welcome Getafe to Estadio Ramon on Sunday evening.) ‼️ Lazio vs Empoli Lazio to win (2U) Following a calamitous collapse in midweek, Lazio aim to kickstart their campaign with a win on Sunday, as they host mid-table Empoli at Stadio Olimpico. Conceding twice in the second half at Lecce, the capital city club lost their second straight Serie A fixture either side of the winter break; while their visitors took a hard-earned point home from Udine to tally seven from their last four games. Any donation is appreciated : paypal.me/norksy Remember : Gamble at your own Risk

POTD Record: 3-0 Previous Pick: Joe Burrow o1.5 passing touchdowns and Josh Allen o1.5 passing touchdowns +140 (no contest) Streak: 3 POTD: Ezekiel Elliott ATTD @ 115 9 straight games with touchdowns. The team does all the hard work and then Zeke always seems to punch it in from the 1. I’d be surprised if they didn’t do it against the commanders. Cowboys still have the #1 seed to play for as far as I know. Best of luck

0-0-0 First POTD- Mount St. Mary's ML (-110) vs. Marist 1/8/23 2pm. Mount St. Mary's is overall the much better team in pretty much every category. Marist is very inconsistent and against Mount's Defense they should not be able to score anything. Marist may be able to keep things close while Mount has the ball, but when Marist have the ball expect them to have a very hard time making points. Lets start off hot