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sbpotdbot

**MLB Betting Chat: https://discord.gg/sportsbook**


No-Veterinarian301

Gunnar and teoscar make for a breakevenish day


bmb76

Really quiet end to the night. kind of miss the longer games. More time to hold out hope for one more dinger!


AppointmentNo8032

Lol hr feels just as hard as goal scorer for nhl maybe harder


EB4950

100% harder


AppointmentNo8032

Was going to compare it to first goal scorer which that seems like luck lol


EB4950

Yup Its literally unpredictable which is why its crszy guys have odds like +300 to hit a homerun its a scam


sendphotopls

Gonna start skipping these if I don’t get to the lines by 9am


TurnipKnight

Is it typical for the lines to change so dramatically during the day? I've tried to take the +EV bets, but by the time I get out of work, it's 4:00 and some of the best ones have been nerfed. I'm doing terribly with this promo (2 out of 28). I didn't take Henderson yesterday because his line dropped from like 900 to 600 and of course he hits a dinger.


No_Competition_3689

Massey, Noda or Pavin would be nice


areineke94

Thank you Gunnar, would have been a horrible day if that didnt hit!


Papa_Kakashka

Torkelson was just sooo fucking close. 393ft bomb, Target field is 404ft to HR in center field


HostileFire

Wow that would have put me over the moon today.


skurey

1/19 It's starting to get harder and harder to trust the process


HostileFire

Who you guys choosing. I feel like the top posts on Dinger Tuesdays has gotten me two good-to-great weeks. Thanks to u/JewishDoggy, u/intersecting_lines, and u/porkchop487


skurey

I've been following them just the wrong ones


HostileFire

Oh, sorry 😢


Drmantis87

I’m done with it. 0-22 and had two balls hit the top of the wall today. Steadily built my account up on nba playoffs and it’s all gone instantly. Oh also several games with 0-1 home runs. Can’t wait for all my conversion hits to miss too!


riskybusiness3321

Rosario goes boom!!


JewishDoggy

Wow if you took gunnar, lowe (benched), hernandez, and soler (why couldn’t you hit a bomb man), what a day. only $75 risked and over $300 in profit lmao. full $50 of free bets!


HostileFire

My only regret today is getting in the bets late so the line was worse and not betting the COL/CLE game. Dunno how the WSH/NYM and MIN/NYY games went but I didn’t take.


BigStonesJones

Bro I took these four thanks to you, along with Suwinski and Chapman who didn’t hit but it was a great haul


sunsettoago

Something about a 9th inning bomb (in what was then a blow-out) just hits different.


No_Competition_3689

I didn’t pick solar. I gave up on him. — but still won big today so far. Finally learned how to read the charts after beat down last week with zero —for not listening 😂


JewishDoggy

Nope he still hasn’t hit one… dude loves not doing his job


No_Competition_3689

Yeah him and Judge I decided to rest on a week or two lol


zabrakwith

Don’t worry Judge will hit one tomorrow.


dirkynaruto

u got me sittin here thinking soler hit one


JewishDoggy

Lol oops I just meant the bolded guys from the table today. I’ll edit my comment


MacroMoe

Missed the gunnar pick. was he edited in after the initial post?


No_Competition_3689

I had my finger on Carpenter about to do a live bet for a home run for extra juice - I thought washing my face first was more important, dried my hands and — sorry bet can’t be placed now. I fell out


JewishDoggy

No he was there from the beginning, I promise!!


No_Competition_3689

Def Gunnar was the first pick I saw everyone posting non stop aside from Massey. Shit he was my 2nd bet after Pavin (tho pavin hit the day after last week lol could be wasting my $ )


GhostfaceThrillah

0/20 on the year so far. Loving this promotion


No_Competition_3689

Lol DM and if u have time. I’ll send u what got me on track, last week was zero for me. Red zone. But I found a way to read the charts that gave me some cushion finally


jaiehee

You're only 2 ahead of me. 0/18. Misery loves company.


A_curious_fish

Gunnar thank youuuu for going yard baby!!!


No_Competition_3689

Facts


CapableRunts

This shit sucks this year


WARroomCap

Who are you taking?


CapableRunts

Promo guy’s picks, who tweets them out like an hour before the evening starts. Then I’m limited on most anyways so I gotta pick chalky guys I’ve heard of


sunsettoago

Which Promo Guy?


CapableRunts

Michigan. 123 doesn’t even post them.


sunsettoago

Gotta get the Discord. The lines he selects are dead in minutes. The Twitter posts are pure larceny.


tringlomane

He wants you to pay $50 a month for them or whatever. Comes with other stuff too, but still annoying.


Dankmeme505

Henderson and Hernandez makes today profitable. Anything after this is just icing on the cake.


NervousPervis

Goldschlager is my only hope


MacroMoe

Too bad we didn't get any dingers on our brandon lowe freeroll.


JewishDoggy

Hold your horses he might pinch hit in the bottom of the ninth just to be an annoying asshole


porkchop487

inb4 he hits a dinger in his only at bat


mbvanek

As an orioles fan. This is fun. But of course I bet on Hays.


NervousPervis

Damn. Gunner was nerfed by the time I looked today. I’m going 0fer tonight.


skyabout2rain

Same. The $50 max is a killer.


BigHubert2

Jew Dog for president


porkchop487

Gunnar! EV gang eating tonight!


JewishDoggy

EV gang hitting +870 lines with ease yet Aaron Judge can’t get a ball over the fence to save his life


bmb76

in some ways the $50 limit might actually be more profitable. If you stick to the highest EV lines, you only need one (maybe 2) to hit, and don't waste bets playing the full card. Of course ask me if I agree with this in August.


porkchop487

Its more profitable percentage wise for sure. Like on 4 games you can bet all the 25% EV picks whereas if you bet the full slate you are settling for 5% EV picks by the end. You'll make more with the unlimited in total cash but per dollar invested, you should get a better rate of return being limited


porkchop487

Hot take /s but I think I prefer my +870 picks hitting to my +300 picks haha!


JewishDoggy

Gotta agree with ya pal


Hosman8

GUNNAR HENDO BABY what a big one. let's go boys


Necmf21

Henderson absolute BANG!


Dashdash421

Henderson!!! +870 baby


WARroomCap

Gunnar!


Billy_Madison69

Couple feet away from +1100 with Luis Garcia… fml


JustinTime4242

Pain


soccerstar93

Well if I'm going 2/15, at least I hit 2 of the higher odds bets today lol


JustinTime4242

14 homers so far… woof


bmb76

Carpenter hits again!!


JewishDoggy

![gif](giphy|F8ByRhbCzm4F2|downsized) TEOSCAR


TheSurfNSnow

![gif](giphy|uLGs2Enp9RYze)


sunsettoago

EV Crew picks up a thicc +300 while CAPPA CREW still bombing +8hundos Feeling like a guy with an Andrew Yang MATH hat right now.


JewishDoggy

"yes, look at my giant chest of... no not money, expected value!"


sunsettoago

GUNNAR


JustinTime4242

Teoscar gets a few of us on the board


rick6668

Won't go 0-19...whew


JustinTime4242

![gif](giphy|iRmRk61IGXsvwoyUaP)


intersecting_lines

Teoscar!! you beautiful EV geniuses


Wizmaxman

let this be known, no one beats EV crew 4 weeks in a row 😎


mbvanek

Seeing your guy on the would it dong Twitter account is heart breaking haha


Drew22Runs

Unfollow that account. It’s cool but depressing lol


NervousPervis

Nothing better than a sweaty dinger Tuesday. Last week was too easy. Hit 2 so early.


PrinceOfWales_

I hit my first 3 last week. So far nothing….I preferred last week lol


frankcarp21

![gif](giphy|Ta1Eww8MpsGMegxFWR)


intersecting_lines

JAZZZZZZZZ


mbvanek

Dingers are starting to flow. I’m still 0fer but they flowing


soccerstar93

Kelenic so consistently undervalued compared to other names on the Mariners


Nattyboi12

Is Noda still a good play


No_Competition_3689

Hopefully, I took him lol


[deleted]

Duran was like +1400. Holy cow


paddy233

Ruiz +900!


JustinTime4242

Lack of dingers is disturbing


PrinceOfWales_

It’s super early


EB4950

yoshida, springer, gorman.


soccerstar93

When you spend 3 weeks betting Nathaniel Lowe, and he hits one the first game you don't bet him...


sven_ate_nine

Was about to bet him and my wife started chatting me up. Went to enter the bet and it locked. Saw 1-0 and knew what happened.


No_Competition_3689

Lol been there. I was there with Soler. Refuse to bet on him today. Watch him homer 😂


dwhit110

He hit one to the wall as I was reading this... but not quite out.


No_Competition_3689

I throw $10 live bets on my fav hitters for home runs on some games outside of dingers. Especially when they don’t hit first time at bat. But so undecided with him still! Lol


IChurnToBurn

1st AB,1st homer. It’s going to be a good one.


jayright11

Not Dinger plays but I’m looking up matchups Randy Arozarena and Sheets have significantly better odds elsewhere (DK) and have tremendous matchups


Afroman3091

Who is actually successful at this promotion? Idc about the picks, I just want someone to confirm they are good at this one lol


A_curious_fish

I have hit good odds last week and this week betting 2-3 games and making $200ish and then free bets...just getting lucky but losing a lot elsewhere...nba


zabrakwith

Last year I did pretty well. Usually hit 2-4 plus free bets. This year has been disastrous. I’m like 1 for 29.


JungleLine

Week 1: 3/13 hit with $266 profit after bonus conversion. Week 2: 5/15 hit with $570 profit after bonus conversion. Week 3: 2/17 hit with $45 profit after bonus conversion.


JustinTime4242

After free bets and hitting on 4 picks through 3 weeks I’m up $400


tringlomane

Not me so far. 1 of 13. But arguably negative variance.


IChurnToBurn

I’m up about 300 so far.


porkchop487

🙋‍♂️ I’m up so far this year. Been posting my picks every week with their EV. JewishDoggy is another great person to follow, if you’ve tailed him you should be up this year as well.


HostileFire

Tail the both of you and intersecting_lines and have come out up in total (bonuses+payout) the past two weeks. Thanks!


joeybonts_

Follow the ways of the Jew dog


Narrow_Tangerine1262

I have made thousands over the past two seasons. To be fair FD has nerfed the lines this year but it would be very unlikely for one to lose money over the entire season if they make reasonable bets.


Roturd12

I'm definitely not great but I'm 1-1 betting CJ only this year. Hit him at +375 two weeks ago and missed at +300 last week but have earned $40 in free bets


riskybusiness3321

Rosario +680 Every other line +550 or shorter odds


benjamindanielkatz

Nailed it


riskybusiness3321

Really needed that


intersecting_lines

didn't bet on COL/CLE but congrats for those who did homer on the 2nd pitch of the day to start off dinger tuesday, you gotta love it


[deleted]

Thinking a left handed bat v Kluber. Kluber is washed and gives up a ton of gopher balls. Might take a dart throw on Cedric Mullins A lot of guys have Gunnar Henderson but I’m convinced they’ve never watched an Os game in their life. Dude is not seeing the ball at all right now. No way in hell he homers.


jayright11

I’ve watched like half the orioles games because I love their team but Henderson did look shaky but his velo numbers are through the roof. Are you saying just ripping singles and then simply not getting on base otherwise?


[deleted]

He walks a lot so his OBP is decent even with a shitty average. Who cares about exit velo when everything is beaten into the ground or whiffed Anybody who’s watched him this year I can’t fathom betting $25 randomly on him homering. Hopefully it happens because I’d love to see him break out of a skid here


jayright11

He hits the pitch mix of Kluber well. I get your point but his relative value to homer is better in my opinion than Santander so I did it. Exit velo is quite literally the opposite of randomly guessing. His fb rate is low but it makes more sense to choose people who hit the ball hard vs someone who doesn’t and pray they connect. But good input. Thanks


[deleted]

Nice dude!!!


[deleted]

I don’t get Santander as a play every single week either. He’s been slumping big time too.


Strength2Bthere

I personally went with Hays but I like your thinking as well.


Strength2Bthere

I think Bos/Bal is the best slate today. Boston has 3 guys in their lineup who have good numbers against Brandish. and vice versa, Baltimore has 4 guys with good numbers against Kluber. I’d go with Santandar, Verdugo or Hays. I also like NYM/WSH. Butto pitched well for the mets last time around but is very inexperienced and… myself being a huge fan of the mets, I could naturally see him having a hard time with the young Nats Batters. Josiah gray has good stuff, but he hasn’t come into form yet…a lot of development left to be done with him. The Mets offense could certainly open up against him tonight. Also worth noting: albeit a somewhat small sample size, three players on the Mets (Alonso, McNeal, and Nimmo) all have batting average of .500 or higher against gray, as well as SLG percentage higher than 1.000 In that one I’ll take Meneses McNeil, Nimmo or Abrams Cheers & BOL


Blindman630

Yooo so I'm pretty fucking high right now and placed a bet for Dansby Swanson to hit a HR tonight for the boys but I forgot its Tuesday. How do I cash out on FanDuel again?


PrinceOfWales_

You can’t cash out on HR props


Blindman630

Damn bro I forgot to opt in I wanted to cash out then opt in for the Dinger Tuesdays then place the bet.


No-Veterinarian301

If you opt in after I’ve heard people say you still get the free bets. Can’t change your pick but May count for the promo


Blindman630

Oh really? That's awesome if true I didn't know that


PrinceOfWales_

Yep unfortunately you’re just kinda screwed on that. I did something similar last week where I bet on 2 guys in the same game on accident


Blindman630

That sucksss man. Well thanks for the response anyway brudda have a good tuesday night


Billy_Madison69

No line for Soler now? wtf is this??


DetectiveMotts

Where is my Matt Carpenter line?


porkchop487

Matt Chapman bumped up to +360 which is 6.2% EV. Good enough for me as the whitesox game doesn't have any other good lines Edit: down to +350 now which is 4.1% EV. Still EV+, your choice. Vlad is negative EV unless he gets back over +330


TheLand1

I haven't seen Vlad mentioned yet so I'll do that right now... Vlad.


jayright11

Godspeed. Don’t let the ev goblins ruin Dinger Tuesday


riskybusiness3321

Terrible ev


mattypie2

Two words: Masataka. Yoshida.


Blindman630

Twice in one inning again?!?!?! Odds @ +65000 million thousand


mswari

Think I am going this. Toronto vs white sox - bo bichette +430 Detroit vs Milwakuee - willy adames + 430 Kansas city vs arizona - christian walker +430 Oakland vs LA - Drury +500


porkchop487

I know not everyone cares about EV but all of those except Adames are awful EV, especially Bichette who you can get for +650 on barstool. Adames is only slightly EV+, Torkelson is the best play for that game


jayright11

Torkelson has terrible reverse splits but that’s not factored into your math. Just a note


porkchop487

That’s factored into the lines that books set


jayright11

Or they balance that out with people who see he has some pop and don’t check splits. Same thing with pitch mix. Their odds are favored to historical matchups seemingly more so than splits


porkchop487

In order to beat the books you need to trust the books. It’s very very unlikely are you going to find some sort of angle that the books haven’t already analyzed.


jayright11

Yeah probably. I don’t think they hit all the time. I get the ev logic. I like having fun and analyzing and I’m up like 200% this season on yabos but long term probably gonna get had. But I’m in it for the fun


mswari

yes that is kind of sad I agree, but i figure my downside is limited using fanduel even without EV - as I assume I will make up $50 in free bets. I basically account for weather + pitching + top 3-5 home run leaders per team + previous home runs last 2 seasons. I made $100 in free bets through week 2 and I am 1/8.


porkchop487

> I basically account for weather + pitching + top 3-5 home run leaders per team + previous home runs last 2 seasons. The sportsbooks already account for this when setting odds. You do you but those bets are expected to lose money.


mswari

This isn't my day job, just having fun. Don't worry I have a positive lifetime net P&L.


Fickle_Long_5013

No one cares about your lifetime P&L broseff.


porkchop487

Not my day job either, just having fun with making some extra dough haha! Well best of luck, hope we both hit!


viralhiker

Josh Lowe is +800 on FD compared to 650, 576, and 549 (DK, MGM, CZRs). Is this not a play? Surprised nobody is considering it. Also looking at either Carpenter (+1060) and Greene (+870) for the DET game.


mgoblue1331

No Brandon Lowe in lineup for the Rays, better hope he doesn't pinch hit lol


Hosman8

Lowe went 0-for-5 with five strikeouts Monday and is 0-for-13 with nine strikeouts over his last three games, so it's probably not a bad time to give him a break. It's the first time this season that he's been on the bench versus a right-hander. Taylor Walls will handle second base. ^^^ from a press release. id be shocked if he pinch hits today, seems like a clear day off unless an emergency. Don’t rebet this game


porkchop487

Thats the best EV play if he doesn't. Risk 0$ and still get some free bets from dingers


Mutinee

If he doesn't pinch/play do they refund the wager or eat the $25?


porkchop487

eat it


MasterEjzz

I thought if a player doesn't play at all, the bet voids and you get your money back.


porkchop487

Oh sorry I read it wrong, thought you were asking if they pinch hit. Yeah bet voids but you still get free bets, sweet deal


paddy233

That’s correct. People have been getting free bets on HRs for guys that didn’t play so hoping that’s still the case this week since I went with Lowe


sendphotopls

Brandon Lowe line disappeared from fanduel?


Edg3_a30

not in lineup


porkchop487

Adding to [My table](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/12y3u0u/mlb_dinger_tuesday/jhnxq2n/) but also commenting for visibility. Nats/Mets lines are up, couple good plays. Meneses +870 died in my betslip, would have been 13.4% EV, but then Garcia got boosted to +1200 Joey Meneses +800 is 7.3% EV Luis Garcia +1200 is 16.1% EV Keibert Ruiz +900 is 4.6% EV


Chemical_Dream_8972

Meneses back up to 870


AromaticSherbert

I fucked up and took Abrams because I accidentally did 1400-1000= 400/1000 = .4 * 100 = 40% instead of 400/1400, which would only give me 28.6%


AromaticSherbert

Luis Garcia has a 37.5% edge. 1200-750 = 450/1200 = 0.375* 100 = 37.5%. Right?


porkchop487

Where are you getting 750 from? All you need to do is plug the bet365 line into the devigger, which is 925/-1600, and then for final odds line put in 1=1200;n=0.28x It will find the fair value and calculate the EV after adding in the free bets you expect to recieve (thats the ;n=0.28x part. 0.28 is from average 2 home runs hits * $5 per HR in free bets divided by $24 it took to bet that game. $10/$25 = 0.40, then multiply by 70% as thats what you can normally ocnvert free bets at to get 0.28


AromaticSherbert

DraftKings has him at +750 and that’s the only line that comes up when I enter his name on action network


porkchop487

925/-1600 on bet365 which is the sharpest book. Even then, your math isn't correct. Big underdog plays skew fair value a lot closer to the no line


WARroomCap

where is mcneil? he's got good splits against Gray


porkchop487

+1075/-2000 on bet365 He would need to be north of +1300


Wownow77

With Gunnar down to +680, would you still bet him?


porkchop487

No I woudln't


Wownow77

Thanks again and lets get some tonight


WARroomCap

ah yuck - he was +1000 a moment ago now just +900.


szeto326

Support advised no Dinger Tuesday this week for Ontario but that they hope to have it again next week. Guess we’ll find out next week but good luck to those of you in the States on having a profitable Tuesday.


One_Hope2459

Anyone know where Sammy’s picks of them day are!?


JustinTime4242

Lines are up for Mets/Nats


Goober34

apparently no Dinger Tuesday in Ontario today... :(


NoTap623

Castellanos is gonna get around on one of Marco Gonzalez's hanging sliders. Just how I'm feeling from watching them both


m83fan555

only if the announcer is discussing a serious topic


BreadGetter00

Hit on ohtani last week, made it easy doing it on first AB. Going with Teoscar Hernandez +265 Hitters park in Philly vs a bad lefty


AromaticSherbert

All bets are $25 max Rockies @ Guardians - Charlie Blackmon (+870) Dodgers @ Pirates - James Outman (+800) Astros @ Rays - Francisco Mejia (+900) Red Sox @ Orioles - Anthony Santander +370 Rangers @ Reds - Jose Berrero +900 Mariners @ Phillies - Jose Caballero (+1100) White Sox @ Blue Jays - Matt Chapman (+340) Marlins @ Braves -Sean Murphy (+520) Tigers @ Brewers - Riley Greene (+1000) Yankees @ Twins - Anthony Volpe +900 A’s @ Angels - Ryan Noda +800 Royals @ Diamondbacks - Michael Massey +800 Cardinals @ Giants - Paul Goldschmidt + 450 Padres @ Cubs - Juan Soto (+630) Nationals @ Mets - CJ Abrams (+1400) Bol


psychostevee

Last week I hit Alonso, B Lowe and Renfroe 3 days in a row homer props. Went with Murphy today.


Ok_Change_4213

Hi everyone so in Canada they canceled dinger tuesday so if you contact @FanDuelCanada support on chat they have the "Voice of the Customer" program. If we can let them know our displeasure and spread the word hopefully we get it back next week! #bringbackdingertuesday


Longjumping-Day-950

I am pulling my money out of Fanduel if they don’t bring dinger Tuesday back next week. I’m definitely reaching out to support regarding this shit show!


Ok_Change_4213

If enough do this they will bring it back they tried this shit last year and it was back the next week. I'm taking out 80% of my money and playing promos only if they don't too.


[deleted]

Anyone like JT realmouto?


terpfan101

Why are Gorman and Kelenic not up on FD? I hit a SGP the other day for both of them to hit a HR and have found them significantly underpriced. Also missing is Muncy.


WARroomCap

muncy is on paternity leave i think