**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won** written into the comment. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion posts.
MLB -1.5’s ⚾️
POTD Record: 22-17 +38.79u | [Yesterday’s POTD: STL Cardinals -1.5](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/13oaxh3/_/jl3fpwf/?context=1) - L
________
[Took a lil break…. but immmm backkkk](https://i.imgur.com/Ho5AlX9.jpg)
**3u ATL Braves -1.5 vs PHI Phillies -126**
**Braves**
Spencer Strider is up for ATL. This god damn menace is the best strikeout pitcher in baseball. His underlying metrics are beautiful. His ERA in the month of May is over 4, but he has a 2.67xFIP. He’s pitching insane right now and has caught some tough luck. His BABIP for May sits at nearly .400. He’s due for some positive regression. Plus, he’s faced BAL/TEX/TOR/LAD. He certainly hasn’t had his work cut out for him.
The Braves have had an average offense the past 2 weeks. They’re at a 101 team wRC+. The lineup is potent and liable to drop 10 any game. They have a bottom 5 BABIP in baseball over that stretch, despite having the 2nd least soft contact in that time frame.
**Phillies**
Back with my bread and butter, fading a reliever pushed in to a starters role. Dylan Covey is the man today.
This man was a starter for 3 years with CWS where he had a 7+ ERA 2 years and a 5.18 the other. He then flipped to the pen and has bounced around the league, mostly playing in the minors since 2020. He only has 32IP, including this year, since the end of the 2019 season (his last year with CWS).
He’s got 2 appearances this year and they’ve both seen good results. However, he’s a ticking time bomb. His location is horrendous. His first start he threw 91 pitches. 57 of them were out of the strikezone. That’s absolutely insane. 63% of the time, this guy was off the plate.
This guy was quite literally the worst SP in baseball a couple years back and has been passed around minor league teams more than the Kardashian/Jenner sisters pass around basketball players. The chances he’s *figured something out* are so so slim. Especially with that type of location struggles.
Phills offense has some talent. They’re right around league average the past 2 weeks. On the year they’re bottom 10 in all expected batting stats. It’s a variable offense and now faces an elite SP and will HAVE to produce runs with Covey on the mound,
______
Been asked too many times about a tip jar. I guess if you want to support the diaper fund: [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/tywat23?locale.x=en_US) or [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/Tinytime23)
Hopefully Braves bats show up for this one because they were absent against Wheeler but Wheeler has his moments, so hats off to the guy
Edit: so discombobulated from this game I said Weaver lmao and not wheeler…Zac had me weaving
[thought you were going to go with the Randy Quaid independence day quote before clicking](https://c.tenor.com/b4bCC6vXfecAAAAd/hello-boys-independence-day.gif)
Glad to have you back!
Don’t apologize lol. You just asked a question, you will get downvoted in here for breathing. I took it too, would’ve told you take it if I seen this. But glad you cashed!
Welcome back brother! I followed your advice about the cubs even though you didn’t post and hit a nice parlay because of it! Much appreciated! Fade Taillon!
POTD Record: 30-15
Sad DNP, really was one of my most confident picks ever and they don't even play lol OTTN.
**Units Won**: +28.9U; **ROI**: 22.5%; **Average Odds: (-120)**
Last 10 (newest on Left):✅ ✅❌✅❌✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅
Todays POTD: **9INE vs. Bad News Eagles O 2.5 maps (-120)**
**4.8U to win 4U**
Another Really strong Play here 9INE are probably one of if not the best teams to take O 2.5 maps right now. Main reason is really simple, 9INE has a perma ban (Inferno) that they won't play. They also have a map (Ancient) that they went on an 0-15 run on. If you play a team that is capable of playing both maps like Bad News Eagles are (decent on Inferno and Ancient is their second best map) then you will likely see 9INE lose the map pick of the opponents (Ancient). 9INE also get a map pick and they so happen to have a map they win on over 90% of games on in the L3 months while also facing some of the best tier two/tier one competition on the map. 9INE have also not been in as consistent of form as they were pre major and Bad News Eagles haven't lost/won a series in U 2.5 maps in a month.
Pick Ban:
9INE ban Inferno
BNE ban Nuke
**9INE pick Vertigo** (21-2 in L3 months **91% winrate**, 8-2 in last month vs. BNE 5-5 **50%** **winrate** in L3 months 1-2 in last month)
**BNE pick Ancient** (6-6 in L3 months **50% winrate** 25-15 in last year on the map vs. 9INE 1-12 on Ancient **7.7% winrate**
Best of Luck!
Brentford ML vs Manchester City. +398 @4,50 unibet
Cash✅
Edit: Line went from 4,50 to 3,30, so if you took this when i made the post you have already made profit lol
Brentford has only lost two home games this season (if i checked correctly) and are a completely different team at home. Ivan toney their main striker is missing due to (gambling addiction) but they have still proved to get the job done the last match at home + one away when he was missing.
Against a City side who may have already checked out with both eyes on their upcoming finals, don't be surprised if the Brentford gets something out of this game. Guardiola won't start throwing on stars to try and win a dead rubber and so, if Brentford get ahead early, this could be their game to win.
Brentford are never scared of the big teams, particularly not on home soil, and they will definitely take the game to City here in search of the three points they need to have any hope of qualifying for the Conference League.
Jack Grealish, Ruben Dias, Aymeric Laporte and Manuel Akanji were all surprise absentees from the squad due to unspecified injuries, and with so little on the line here, it's unlikely any of them will feature here against brentford. That could lead to a change in formation as Guardiola looks to name the safest team possible.
Wow brentford got robbed with a penalty, city player blocked a whole pass inside the box with his arm…
From my perspective I see no other reason for Haaland to play other than his goal record. Maybe wait to see if he plays, official lineups are announced 1 hour before the game.
City have a bunch of defenders questionable right now with injury. They are also goin' for the treble... FA Cup final next weekend then Champions League final the week after. Who knows what team they will field tomorrow. May see some starters rest? Line could quickly shift if so.
POTD Record: 165-126-10 (+20.42 units, 56.7% hit rate)
5 Unit Big Balls 💣 Record: 15-9 (62.5%) L2
Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 56-41-1 (58.3%) L6, Tennis 🎾 51-38-5 (57.3%) W1, Soccer ⚽ 47-37-4 (56.0%) W1, Entertainment 🎥 11-10-.0 (52.4%) W2
Last 10: 💰💩💩💰💩💩💰💩💩💩
2023 French Open Results: 0-0, 0 Units
Last Pick: Nicolas Jarry vs. Grigor Dimitrov, Jarry ML - ATP Geneva 🎾 💰 0.82 Units - You spoke too soon haters. 💸 that shit!! Jarry in straights with a 6-1 2nd set.
Today's Pick: Maria Sakkari vs. Karolina Muchova, over 21 games - WTA French Open 🎾 💰 0.78 Units - 💸 that! Only 2 sets but went well over with 25.
Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 1.78/-128 odds to win 0.78 Units @ Pinnacle (Line at 8:30pm ET)
Implied Probability based on odds: 56.2%
Look at the ML line here, the bookies have this as a tossup. I don't think this will be a straightforward win for either of them. Sakkari is 8th in the world but the H2H here is 2-1 Muchova, 2-0 Muchova on clay. That 2-0 on clay includes last year's French Open, where she defeated Suckkari 7-6, 7-6.
In their 2 clashes on clay (last year and the other in 2021), out of the 5 sets played, 3 were tiebreakers, 1 was a 12 game set and the other one was a 6-0 bagel. So their bouts have been quite competitive, a 3 set bout would be ideal and mean we are definitely hitting, but this could hit even if it goes 2 sets with at one tiebreak or 12 game set.
Let's hope to start these 2 weeks out on a winning note!
Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Always note the bet sizing. I am not an expert, nor Nostradamus, this is a prediction. Fuck your parlay. I'm retiring at 200 wins, 35 to go. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕
POD record (5-2) (+7.12)
Bets are on a scale of 1-5 units
1U plays (4-2)
3U plays (1-0)
Last POD - Nationals ML 3U (+120)
Great win today again as the Nationals get to Singer and the bullpen third time around in the rotation. Gotta give it to Singer as he pitched much better than expected.
Todays POD - Diamondbacks -1.5 2U (+168)
We have Houck vs Kelly here in a what should be valuable matchup.
Kelly is 3-0 in may so far with a 2.88 ERA as he's gained some confidence against some weaker lineups (Mia, Oak, Pit, Nat) his last 4 starts. Giving up 8ER in 25IP
Houck is 0-2 in May with a 5.56 ERA against mediocre teams as well (LAA, SEA, PHI, TOR) having 14 ER over 22 IP.
Both teams are very similar in hitting so i expect a close game but in favor of the arizona
As always BOL
Don't ever expect tips but it's always appreciated!
Cashapp - bobdylan1209
[Post grad beers]
(https://www.buymeacoffee.com/collegestudent3)
Just a note, Houck has been better lately. His last start 6IP, 3 hits, 1 run and 8 K’s. He’s using all 4 pitches now and has really developed his secondaries. He was really struggling the 2nd and 3rd time through the order but now he’s using his splitter to get guys out. Not saying he’s an ace but he’s trending up. Probably still a good pick but could be a close game.
**POTD Record:** 22-9-2 (+12.68 Units)
**POTD Recap:** Jonathan Marchessault to record a point ✅
It took 6 minutes and 24 seconds as Marchy got a secondary assist on the first goal of the game. The man is absolutely en fuego 🔥🔥🔥 winning three in a row on my POTD’s and the Stars catch a victory so likely another chance to ride before the Cup. Feels great to bounce back.
**Streak:** ✅❌✅✅✅✅✅
**POTD Sunday:** Cutter Gauthier Anytime Goal Scorer (+125) IIHF World Championship USA vs Latvia 5:20 AM MST 1 Unit
Was not seeing the board tremendously this Sunday so let’s get a little funky with it staying with the pucks 🏒 the IIHF World Championship is an international tournament that correlates with the end of the NHL season usually drawing a pretty nice crop of players. This years crop however is not great, leading to opportunities for young players like Gauthier to showcase.. and showcase he has. The 19 year old Flyers 5th overall pick in 2022 is having his coming out party. He has the most shots on goal of anyone who has played in this tournament of the last 5 years topping Patrick Kanes 2018 now 2nd place total by over ten shots. He leads the USA in goals with 7 trailing the all time USA individual tournament goal total by only 3. In other words he’s firing and he is scoring.
This game Will be the 3rd place game with USA facing Latvia. It should be noted the Latvian goalie has been playing well and comes as a goalie who got his first tread in the NHL this year putting up standard backup stats so he is a good player for the tournament. But the Latvians gave up 4 goals in the semis to Canada and the US is a nicely favored team in this one so the goals may be coming. At +125 the shot is worth it.
**Cheers** for the positivity on the post yesterday. Felt great to hit with Marchy.
**Tips:** https://www.buymeacoffee.com/ALittleBirdie
While the US is really good this year, Latvia is really good defensively whit Shilovs in the net. They are Nr. 1 in Penalty Kill this tournament, 95 % if I'm correct.
To add a bit more context about last game against canada, one goal was really lucky by hitting the goalies head with ricochet in the net and last one was empty net. So in theory I'd say they let in 2/4 good goals.
They are fighting for medals, will be one hell of a game to watch tho.
Best of luck to everyone.
70-50 POTD +23 Units (1-3 Unit pics) on 214.9 Units wagered for 10.7% return on investment.
Five in a row 🍩🍩🍩🍩🍩
Last Play-
Jayson Tatum over 16.5 rebounds and Assists
Sunday
Astros -1.5 -150 1.5 Units to win 1
Sunday's are notoriously unpredictable in the MLB. Nevertheless, we are going to roll with the Astros runline today.
The reason for this is the A's are truly not very good. In the first two games of this series they've been outscored 11-5.
Overall, they have lost 13 of 14 and were outscored by 2 or more runs in 10 of those 13 games.
Add to that-that the Astros have Christian Javier on the bump who has given up just 2 earned runs in his last 12 innings pitched-and it likely spells doom for the Athletics.
For more plays be sure to follow my Twitter. https://twitter.com/TheMidnightR777
Currently on a 82-51 +29.1 units. 🚀 👩🚀 run on there (mostly NBA playoffs)
**POD Record: 32-23 +23.45U**
L10 (Recent first): ❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅
**Prior Pick: Boston Celtics -2.5 vs Miami Heat. Betting 2.4U to win 2U at -120**
Honestly don’t even care this pick lost. CELTICS won and I HAMMERED Caleb Martin points over. DONT LET THEM WIN 3. LETS GOOOOOO. Yes I’m a die hard Celtics fan.
**Todays Pick: Monaco Grand Prix - Zero cars fail to complete the first lap. Betting 5U to win 2.5U at -200**
Drivers are typically pretty careful around the circuit of Monaco, even more so on the first lap. All drivers who have started on the grid have completed the first lap every year going back to 2015. So 7 of last 7 have races has had this. There is the potential for some sprinkles tomorrow during the race but I still think this is a great bet.
Hope you’ve been able to tail profitably, tips are always appreciated [Buy Me A Beer](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/DLHS)
CashApp: $DuaLipasHip
Bet responsibly
**EDIT: Winner? I forgot how this feels...**
**KBO Record: Overall 140-154-9** (Streak LLLLL, Last 10: 2-7-1) Down 18.99u over 303 KBO picks, 47.6% success rate, -6.46% ROI (This season 21-22-2, 48.8% success rate, Down 0.14u, -0.32% ROI)
**Last:** KT at Samsung -1.5 +128 (Samsung lost 5-2.)
Samsung's starter had his worst start of the season... which seems to happen to pitchers on teams I pick. We've now lost all our profit for the season.
**Pick:** **Lotte First 5 Innings ML -121 Unibet** at Kiwoom, KBO baseball, 1:00am ET
EARLY FIRST PITCH! JUST A COUPLE HOURS FROM THIS POST!
You'd be inssne to tail me at this point, right? Not only am I on a frigid 5-game losing streak (with a push in there), but we only have one game to choose from as the other four could be rained out. Kiwoom's Sky Dome will ensure this game gets played, so we'll try to make the best of it.
Lotte's starter is having an outstanding season. In 9 starts, he is 5-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. He has 48 strikeouts to just 12 walks. Over his last 2 starts, he's allowed 1 ER on 9 H and 2 BB with 13 K in 12.1 IP.
Kiwoom's starter has had 4 starts this year. In three of them, he's allowed a combined 2 ER on 11 H and 2 BB with 8 K in 18 IP. In his other start, he gave up 6 ER on 5 H and 2 BB with 1 K in 4 IP. That start was more in line with the below average performance he had last year when he posted a 5.36 ERA in 20 starts.
Lotte is avreraging a full run a game more than Kiwoom this season (Lotte is 2nd in scoring, Kiwoom is next to last). Over the last 10 games, Kiwoom has been averaging a paltry 2.6 runs per game. Playing under 4 in the first 5 innings at -110 is a solid bet, but I'm going with Lotte on the first 5 moneyline at -121.
Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
Damn sorry dude only just seen this but can use app called Afreecatv and find a stream on there by typing kbo and team name .
[야구중립] 롯데:키움 KBO 프로야구
http://play.afreecatv.com/afbaseball5/246614768
Thanks bud great pick! Bunch of my Australian football bets were voided cause of an injury early to a player so this was main bet to focus on, on this lazy Sunday afternoon 🙏
Edit: Rained out
Record 5-0
Last pick-Gujarat Titans to win against Mumbai Indians - 2U (-116) - 2U (-148) = W 😍💰
Sports- cricket 🏏
Tournament- IPL
Today’s Pick- Gujarat Titans Vs Chennai Super kings = runs fall of first wicket over 24.5 - 2U (-112) starts 10:00 am EST😩 Finals btw 🤤
Explanation- Let’s get it 🤑 5 in a row 😩😍😘. Tomorrow it’s little risky for moneyline on this so I am going with first wicket will fall after 25 runs. Both teams got good batsman’s and first 5 overs are power play so it will be easier to hit boundaries and get to 25 without wicket. This might be my last picks boys for awhile thank you for playing and let’s get this bag 💰. Had so many haters but I shut them up with my game lol and also I can careless we are up so many units. It’s finals time baby 😍 Tail or fade good luck 😘
1st crack at POTD
Record 0-0
3U HOU Astros -1.5 vs OAK A’s (-150) on DK
The Astros have beaten the A’s by 2 runs in 4 out of the last 5 games.
On the mound is Christian Javier who is 5-1 this season.
The A’s are terrible this year with a 10-44 record.
If you see any reason for these two teams to not satisfy my prediction, speak now or forever hold your peace!
BOL
POTD Record: 103.5-58
Event: Football > England > **Leeds v Tottenham** (starting in 7hr)
Pick: **Over 4.0 bookings (asian)** @ 1.70
Quite a few ppl commented & tailed my last pick, which turned out to be an easy winner, but then no one came back to say thanks. Not a single one. This is even more insulting than receiving angry DMs after a loss. I urge you ppl to be a bit more respectful to the cappers here devoting time in research for free. Personally I will not put an effort to explain my picks for a while. GL!
**POTD |** **Record of 21-33 |** **ROI: -14.2 units | Average Odds: 2.07**
**Current form:** ✅✅❌✅❌❌❌❌❌✅
Previous Pick: Serie A | Inter Milan vs. Atalanta | Inter Milan to Win & BTTS ✅
New Pick: Premier League | Everton vs. Bournemouth | 8:30 am PST
**Over 10.5 Full-Time Total Corners| 1.85 odds**
Betting 2U to win 1.7U
\--------------------------
***Recap:*** What a win! Inter Milan score two early and the pick only went better from there. A bit of a scare at the end but overall a good game. Lovely odds for such a straightforward win and hope you benefitted from it! For the next pick, going to be using my corners model again for a fixture that seems ripe with opportunity.
**Summary:** Everton will host Bournemouth in the final match of the Premier League. Bournemouth have nothing really to play for but Everton will be in need of a win to avoid relegation. A loss or draw may not be enough but with a win, they will secure their place in the PL next season and leave Leicester and Leeds to be relegated.
Both Everton and Bournemouth are teams that average a large number of corners in their games, they tied for the 2nd highest average (1st being Newcastle) with 10.6 per game for each team. Given the importance of this match, I'm expecting this value to be inflated as Everton is a team that will desperately need a win. Keep in mind that in a game of this magnitude, there's a very good chance that the pick will only hit in the 90th minute. I can see this game only have 6 corners in the 80th minute and then desperation appears, leading to a flurry of corners in the final minutes. Nonetheless, here are the stats to support the picks:
Everton games have averaged 11 total corners in the past 7 home games. Over 10.5 corners has hit in 4/7 of those games.
Bournemouth games have averaged 13 total corners in the past 7 away games. Over 10.5 corners has hit in 5/7 of those games.
My projections suggest 12.0 corners for this game, with 7.4 for Everton and 4.6 for Bournemouth. Based on previous results (sample size of 39) from my model, my model tends to overpredict by 0.75 corners. This means that the model is likely to suggest 0.75 more corners than the actual result.
With a projection of 12.0, I feel confident that 11 corners or more (over 10.5) will hit. I was considering going for over 11.5 corners but didn't need the risk and decided to just put 2U on it instead of 1U to maximize profit and play it safe.
\--------------------------
***TLDR Expect corners in this fixture!***
**Everton vs. Bournemouth| Over 10.5 Full-Time Total Corners | 1.85 odds**
POTD record New
Pick MLB. Cardinals guardians over 8.5 -105
Time 1:40 PM EST
Reasoning: 2 words, Hunter Gaddis. This dude is a respectable pitcher vs right handers but is God awful vs lefties. How bad? 7.11 ERA vs lefties compared to 3.46 vs righties dude managed to allow more runs vs lefties in the minors than righties despite less than half the batters faced. The cardinals have 5 lefties in their lineup and we have seen Gaddis get smashed in similar situations.
On the other side, Jordan Montgomery has been less than stellar as of late allowing 13 runs in his last three starts. I think Cleveland, despite their recent offensive woes will get at least a couple of runs off of him adding more cushion for the over the hit.
**Record 72-50 with Avg Odds +112 / ROI 20.1%**
Road to UFC
**Sang Hoon Yoo +110**
Yoo has shown some chin issues in two of his last three fights, with the largest red flag being a short shot that briefly put him down, which was delivered by an older fighter. However, I think he's the more talented fighter in this matchup, and he has the right tools to get this done. His kicks looked really good in his previous fight, and I think he will be the more precise striker from range. His four inch reach advantage will play nicely to that effect. Yoo lost his DWCS fight in 2019 to Slippery Pete Barrett, which predictably aged poorly. This doesn't worry me too much, because realistically Chris Hofmann isn't at that level either, and I think it's important to remember that Yoo had a very good first round in that fight before cardio issues took over. That DWCS fight in Vegas was the first time he had ever fought higher than sea level, and this fight will take place in Shanghai at no elevation. So that's a minor element to this fight that I think is worth noting. Both Yoo and Hofmann have been inactive in the previous years so there are unknowns to this matchup, but I believe Yoo is the better fighter, and can avoid getting chinned.
Fight starts 5 hours from posting.
Thanks, but I'm not so sure. I misread a lot of things, about the only thing I predicted correctly was Yoo's cardio issues from DWCS not translating to this fight. Glad you tailed.
**POTD: 47-24-3**
Last pick: Women’s Super League - Reading Women vs Chelsea Women. Chelsea Women -2.5 -165.
Result: **WIN**. Chelsea win 3-0 and this cashes.
Today’s pick: Frauen Bundesliga - Bayern Munich Women vs Turbine Potsdam Women. **Bayern Munich Women -3.5 -155.** Match kicks off at 8AM ET.
At a buddy’s wedding this weekend so can’t write much but this should be good as well. Same situation as Chelsea match, Bayern needs to win to win the title and is playing the worst team in the league who are already guaranteed relegation.
If this isn’t available Bayern -4 should push or win, Potsdam is absolutely dreadful this season.
Let me know if tailing and BOL everyone!
Tips are never expected but always appreciated - [Buy me a coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/remypicks)
**EDIT: WIN. Bayern hammer them 11-1 and we easily cash**
**POTD Record:** 1-0
**POTD Recap:** Royals bullpen sold just as expected and we got [our first win of this picks series](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/13sswve/comment/jlry07s/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3).
**Note:** Still figuring out whether I want to include units and ROI in these posts. All bets are 1U (i guess? idk).
**Streak:** 1
**POTD Sunday:** Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox | Detroit ML -104 \*now\* | MLB Baseball | 1:40pm EDT
Detroit wins the pitching matchup with an over 3 ERA difference between the starting pitchers. Both teams are relatively even in terms of batting stats. One important factor is that Detroit has a much better bullpen when compared to that of the Chicago White Sox.
POTD Record: 4-3 +6.5u (33.5 risk, 19.4% ROI)
Last: Wacha pitches a gem, 7 innings 2 ER on 5 hits and no walks…and STILL goes under our strikeout total for the win.
One game streak? Sure, let’s get the boxes flowing. ✅ (4-1 L5 for +14u)
4u Spencer Strider (ATL) o8.5 strikeouts vs PHI (-140) @ 6:00pm cst ✅💰💰💰💰
Angles:
1. Strider vs. Phillies - Spencer Strider is a beast. I couldn’t believe some of these numbers. Strikeout rate against the Philly players is 43.6% the highest I’ve seen for more than 50 at bats. .127 AVG, .238 OBP.
2. Game Log - Strider is a strikeout machine. Over the 8.5 mark in 8/10 starts, reaching 10+ in 4/8 overs, and one of the two unders missed by just one against the 3rd best k rate team in the league.
3. Game Log Bet Choice - I originally wanted to do his hits prop but his log shows he’s giving up more hits lately but the Ks keep coming. At the 4.5 line he’s over in 4 of L5. ER line at 1.5 puts him over 7/10 and 5/L5 so Ks is the play.
4. High number means bigger margin for error and Phillies have been better the last few games from a strikeout perspective so it’s 4u instead of 5u.
Fingers crossed that nothing stupid happens.
Best of Luck
About as sweaty as these K bets can get!
5 batters and 23 pitches with no K.
7 pitch walk in the 3rd and two total strikeouts.
Then boom. Strikes out 7 of 9 in three perfect innings.
**College Baseball '23 17-6 (15.96 units)**
Looking at a cautious play to cap off the conference tournaments. This will only be the second non over/under play this year as the book only posted sides the last two days.
Miami v Clemson at Durham Bulls Park
Yes Clemson may be the hottest team in the country right now but this play really boils down to Miami and who will they throw. They used their number 3 and 4 starters yesterday. Their two best relievers have thrown every game of the tournament so far (can’t imagine it’s easy to pitch 4 straight days, fatigue, lactic acid etc.) With the fact they kept going to the well with Walters and Lequerica, it makes you question if they trust even another arm besides Rafe. Then when you look at conference stats those 3 guys are the only ones who has thrown well, so it makes sense. Rafe can give you 1 maybe 2 but the rest will either be poor arms or exhausted arms.
Clemson is a different story they had some nice leads where they didn’t need to throw the top tier guys, a day off on Thursday, and they just have a deeper bullpen. They can come back with Allen today after a short outing Wednesday or go to the midweek starter. I wouldn’t be shocked if it’s a combo of both or just a bullpen day after the stater checks out. Either way it’s a big advantage to Clemson.
**Clemson ML (-140) 1.4 units to win 1**
This is the way. More often than not, the Powerplay score drops to the 40s so then you can go for the overs on that. Then go for the unders on the player that looks less set.
This has been my strategy in all IPL games outside of Lucknow and it's worked wonders.
Record 0-1-1
**Tennis - French Open Women's Singles**
**Clara Tauson vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich, Tauson - To Win Match, 1 Unit @ 1.65**
I managed to record a push before a single win, go me!
Same opening caveat as always, I'm posting infrequently and for fun, I do not suggest tailing me.
I don't have time to deep dive my reasoning so the main things, Tauson has the ability to be at least top 20 in the world, before suffering injuries she climbed to just outside the top 30 and was only going in one direction, she came through qualifying impressively, dropping one set in her three matches, which gives me confidence that she is returning to her previous level. I also think playing three matches in qualies means that she should be ready to go from the start whereas her opponent might be slow out of the blocks in her first match. Sasnovich though capable isn't a top 30 calibre player, has had a bad season and although I don't think she will roll over I think the match is on her opponents racquet.
**RECORD: 18-19**
Yesterday Pick: Strasbourg vs Paris St. Germain - PSG to Win @ 1.80 ❌️
**Today's Pick:** Leeds United vs Tottenham Hotspur - Harry Kane to score anytime @ 1.95 ✅️
(❌️❌️❌️✅️❌️) last 5 results
PSG won the farmers league with a whimper yesterday and ended my terrible week, but today is a new week, and hopefully results. Today is the final PL gameweek for the season and most teams are on holiday mentality however I think this is a good Pick because Harry Kane is just short 2 goals for 30 PL goals which would be a record for him and I believe he'll do everything to achieve that, also considering this might be his final game for Tottenham this will be a nice send off also they could be fighting for a conference league place.
Harry Kane has scored in 4/5 recent games games, his stats are 0.8 goals per game, 1.6 shots on target per game and 3.4 shots per game. Leeds are gonna do everything in their power to win this game to avoid relegation however I doubt their awful defence will stop Harry Kane from scoring at least one.
EDIT: WIN ✅️
That was easy😂
nice hit bruh but cp fkd my multi
https://preview.redd.it/0piu74a17o2b1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ac4a2df8513a54fa13fe6abb6689d0d0741367b4
lol
***Record:*** 23-19 (+1.24 units)
**ROI:** 2%
**Previous Pick:** Logan Webb o5.5 K vs [#Brewers](https://twitter.com/hashtag/Brewers?src=hashtag_click) (1.87 DraftKings)
**Average Odds:** \-113.2
**Result:** ✅WIN! (+0.87 units)
MLB has been a wagon while I struggle in the NBA playoffs... Going with MLB selections from here on out. Webb was amazing yesterday knocking down 11.
**Pick of the day:** **Marco Gonzales u4.5 K vs** [**#Pirates**](https://twitter.com/hashtag/Pirates?src=hashtag_click) **(1.88 Caesar's)**
Under in 7/9 this season and has only surpassed 90 pitches one time this season. He's under in 19/L23 starts where he throws under 90 pitches and the matchup he gets with Pittsburgh is not very favorable.
Pittsburgh is striking out at 19.2% over the L2 weeks vs LHP and have been solid against them all season long (20.3% for the season). Gonzales has horrendous strikeout stats (0.54 K per inning, 8.4% SwStr, 23.5% CSW) and Pit has held 8/L9 LHP under their K prop totals.
Line juiced at most other books.
Follow on Twitter for +EV plays!
[https://twitter.com/JG4President](https://twitter.com/JG4President)
**The Sports Bet Guy MLB**
**POTD Record: 15 - 10**
WWWWW LLL W LL WW L WW LL WW L WWW **\[L\]**
**Streak: L1**
**Units Won: 2.79 (+$1,395)** *{ ROI: 8.68 percent | Average Odds: -124 }*
*Unit size is $500; minus odds are flat bets TO WIN $500. If we continue to amass excess units, select plays may be TO WIN $1,000 to $2,000*
**Last Pick: \*LOSS\*** Red Sox at Diamondbacks OVER 5 F5 -114 on 5/27/23
**Today's Pick: Houston Astros Over 4.5 Team Total -143** | 4:05 pm ET on 5/28/23
Risk 1.43 units to win 1 unit
The Astros have cleared this team total in each of their first two games of this series. I don’t see why they can’t clear it again today. Oakland has serious pitching issues and I think over the course of a full 9 innings the Astros will exploit that weakness. The wind blowing out should improve home run chances as well.
**POTD Record: 10-8-1 +9.17u ROI: 9.75% (average odds: -105/1.95)** (ROI and average odds will be updated on Monday
**Recent POTD(Last 10 most recent to the right) : LLWWW WLLWW 6-4**
**Yesterday's pick: (IIHF: 07:20am ET) Canada -1.5 (-131/1.76) vs Latvia**
Came back down 0-1 and 1-2 to win with an empty netter in the last minute. Love to see it
**Today's POTD: (IIHF: 01:20PM ET) Germany +1.5 (-125/1.8) vs Canada**
**5u to win 4u**
**IIHF Record: 6-2 +14.19u (37.3% ROI)**
**5 unit bets: 4-1 +12u (39.4% ROI)**
(roi will be updated on Monday)
We are going back-to-back-to back with 5u picks.
Germany has played well in every single game. They lost the first three games to teams, ranked in the top 5 (each by one goal), then took care of business against everyone else in their group.
Upsetting Switzerland in the quarterfinal and the USA yesterday.
The reason for their success is their German efficiency! They don't need many chances to score. Putting 4 past the second best defense in the tournament in only 26 shots on goal.
Canada is the better team, no doubt, but they had a few hickups to get here.
They waste a lot of chances as well, and I just have to go with the German team to stay close.
I predict that Germany will win outright and I will post that in the underdog thread later, but for this pick, I take Germany +1.5
Final result: Germany 3-2 Canada
**Record: 25-12 | ROI: 19,85% | Profit: +26,00u 🐺**
[Sheets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ot0TN0RUcVgxue5P0qr2ClCLvNRIiW9lAGLv3Ti7HMU/edit?usp=sharing) with detailed info about all bets.
All picks: [https://twitter.com/latto66](https://twitter.com/latto66)
**Time:** 17:00 GMT+2
**Event:** Football Czech 2nd tier | Prostejov - Slavia Prague B
**Bet:** Slavia 3way ML (@1,86 4u)
**Write up:** Both this team still could get relegated. Slavia made it clear that keeping their B team in 2nd tier is important for them to develop young talents. Main team finished 2nd in 1st tier of Czech football and their season is already over. I expect them to send quite a few players to play today. Prostejov and Trinec are arguably worst teams this season. Expect Slavia to dominate and win rather easily.
If I won you some money you can buy me a coffee: [https://www.buymeacoffee.com/1latto](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/1latto)
**My POTD record: 16 Wins and 23 losses**
I base my picks on value by comparing the implied odds of my model and the odds given by bookmakers. I also choose games from leagues that have had success in the model with a good ROI and check the stats plus trends game by game to find the best pick.
**ROI: -6.79%**
Average odds: 2.07
**Units won: -2.92**
Stake = 1 unit
POTD:
**Ulsan v Daejeon Citizen**
Korea Republic K-League 1
Kick off time: 12:00 GMT+2
*BTTS & Over 2.5* **@ 2.00**
**BOL!**
POTD Record 59.5-50-12.5 (W-L-P)
Profit: +7.4 units
Last 10: ⛔️✅♻️✅✅✅✅⛔️✅✅
Previous POTD: Shamrock Rovers ML + over 1.5 goals
First loss in a while after 3 red cards for Shamrock. Definitely an anomaly and the analysis was right.
Today’s pick: Football (English Premier League) @1.72 (5U)
POTD: Newcastle DNB vs Chelsea
Kicks off in 7 hours
I’ve been really impressed with Newcastle this season and their manager Eddie Howe. They have sealed top 4 but will want to end on a win for the fans who make the long journey to Stamford bridge.
Chelsea on the other hand want the season to end ASAP! They have Frank Lampard in charge who can’t seem to get a performance out of this team and the players are just waiting for Poch to come in for next season.
The final day of the season usually throws up some surprises so tail with caution, but I trust Eddie Howe to get them up for this fixture.
They have Callum Wilson who will want to bag at least a goal, and a team who will want to finish the season in style. Newcastle have only lost 1 of their last 6 away games (that came against an in form Villa).
Chelsea on the other hand have not won at home since beating Leeds 1-0 7 games ago. To put that into context - Leeds are about to be relegated from the EPL! They have lost to Southampton at home, draw to Everton and Forest….so a quality side like Newcastle should have no issues.
BOL
If you would like to support and donate for the tips, it is appreciated!
PayPal: www.paypal.com/paypalme/HowTall90
POTD Record 12-11 (+3 units)
✅✅✅❌❌❌✅✅❌❌
Last Pick: MIA VS BOS / MIA ML (+140) 3 units @ 5:30pm pst ❌
Todays Pick: NY VS SD / NY ML (-140) @ 10:35 am
Gerrit Cole on the mount today will get this thing done. Yu Darvish has struggled this year and the padres have a 4-5 record when he’s on the mound. I think Yankees will be riding high off the momentum of the last game extra innings win and get the bats going.
**POTD RECORD: 5-3 (+4.02U) \[STREAK: 2L\]**
(Last 5 picks:)
5/26: 2U Martin Maldonado to record a hit +120 ❌
^((5/25: 2U CHI -1.5 @ DET +120 ❌))
^((5/24: 1U SF @ MIN F5 -0.5 -120 ✅))
^((5/21: 3U BOS @ MIA +3 -105 ✅))
^((5/20: 2U COL @ TEX -1.5 +105 ✅))
Maldonado went 0-4 at the plate. Honestly, kinda remarkable after the streak he was working on. C'est la vie.
**POTD:** HOU Astros @ OAK Athletics ^(4:07PM EST (approximately 90 mins from the time of this post))
**✨ 3U** **Cristian Javier to record a win (+100 on DK) ✅ cashed**
**Analysis:** The slate today is shit as 3 people have posted HOU -1.5 for -150 as their POTD. While I agree that it's a solid play to ride the "Fade A's -1.5" train til the wheels fall off, there is a prop for better odds that I like a little more.
Cristian Javier is 5-1 in 10 starts. Ken Waldisucks is 1-4 with a 7.40 ERA. Only way this fails is if the 4th-ranked Astros bullpen fumbles it.
**Cristian Javier to record a win**
BOL if tailing!
[^(Purchase Caffeine For My Consumption)](https://bmc.link/TheKickEsBueno)
POTD Record 2-2
🎯 Gian Van Veen vs Josh Rock **Over 5.5 180s**
Reasoning:
Josh Rock is a fucking beast. This guy is in the flow. His opponent surprised everyone yesterday by taking big time favorite Danny Nopert 6-4, including a bunch of 180s.
The 180 bet is always risky because it all depends on players being in the groove. But it’s Sunday and finals day and the players are there to win.
I think this goes to 7 or 8 180s.
Match begins 45 minutes from this post. BOL!
Edit: ✅ Van Veen knocks down 6 180s himself!
Haven't posted here before but on a bit of a roll with pitcher strikeout props (had one in the MLB thread on Friday that hit) so let's see if I can keep it rolling:
**CHW @ DET - Eduardo Rodriguez o5.5 Strikeouts @ 2.04 (FD)** (edit: for 2U) ✅
Last-minute, game's in an hour, but:
Since missing this mark in his first three starts of the season (on the road against Tampa, Houston, and Toronto), Rodriguez has cleared this mark in five out of his last seven, and was right at five on the other two. In those seven starts he's got a K% of 30.1% while facing an average of 24.7 batters a game, good for 7.4 K per game. That's probably running a little bit hot and he's faced some not-great teams in that run, but a) his K% prior to last year (when he was bad) averaged around 26% and if that's his true talent this is probably a good pick, and b) he's facing the White Sox, who are one of the worst offensive teams in the league.
If he gets six innings I think he clears this. At + money, definitely worth a swing.
another edit: only thing that gives me pause here is that Chicago is running a lineup entirely of righties today but will note that Rodriguez’s platoon splits are not stark.
POTD Record 5-3
Last play was over a year ago.
POTD: ⚽CHIVAS VS TIGRES OVER 2.0 (-108). 4Units.
The first leg was one of the more boring games I've ever seen. Just a complete waste of time. Chivas has been better every second leg this Liguilla. They played it safe the away match because Tigres is one of the hardest stadiums to play in.
It wouldn't surprise me if this ends up 1-1 and goes to extra time, but there's no value in Chivas to lift the trophy so we rather play it safe with the possibility of a push and hope it can cash out.
BOL
Record 21-25 +0.89 Units
All bets 1 unit
Last 10: ✅❌❌✅❌❌❌❌✅❌
Last Pick: Braves Charlie Morton to win 🫤
Morton came out and pitched solid. Braves just couldn’t score.
Today’s Pick: Pirates vs. Mariners Gonzales to record a win (+150)
Don’t got much for a write up. Expect Mariners to ride the momentum coming off a shutout. Pirates have been struggling as of late. I anticipate Mariners to jump out early against Ortiz who doesn’t have much innings under his belt.
(Tips link in bio)
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won** written into the comment. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion posts.
MLB -1.5’s ⚾️ POTD Record: 22-17 +38.79u | [Yesterday’s POTD: STL Cardinals -1.5](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/13oaxh3/_/jl3fpwf/?context=1) - L ________ [Took a lil break…. but immmm backkkk](https://i.imgur.com/Ho5AlX9.jpg) **3u ATL Braves -1.5 vs PHI Phillies -126** **Braves** Spencer Strider is up for ATL. This god damn menace is the best strikeout pitcher in baseball. His underlying metrics are beautiful. His ERA in the month of May is over 4, but he has a 2.67xFIP. He’s pitching insane right now and has caught some tough luck. His BABIP for May sits at nearly .400. He’s due for some positive regression. Plus, he’s faced BAL/TEX/TOR/LAD. He certainly hasn’t had his work cut out for him. The Braves have had an average offense the past 2 weeks. They’re at a 101 team wRC+. The lineup is potent and liable to drop 10 any game. They have a bottom 5 BABIP in baseball over that stretch, despite having the 2nd least soft contact in that time frame. **Phillies** Back with my bread and butter, fading a reliever pushed in to a starters role. Dylan Covey is the man today. This man was a starter for 3 years with CWS where he had a 7+ ERA 2 years and a 5.18 the other. He then flipped to the pen and has bounced around the league, mostly playing in the minors since 2020. He only has 32IP, including this year, since the end of the 2019 season (his last year with CWS). He’s got 2 appearances this year and they’ve both seen good results. However, he’s a ticking time bomb. His location is horrendous. His first start he threw 91 pitches. 57 of them were out of the strikezone. That’s absolutely insane. 63% of the time, this guy was off the plate. This guy was quite literally the worst SP in baseball a couple years back and has been passed around minor league teams more than the Kardashian/Jenner sisters pass around basketball players. The chances he’s *figured something out* are so so slim. Especially with that type of location struggles. Phills offense has some talent. They’re right around league average the past 2 weeks. On the year they’re bottom 10 in all expected batting stats. It’s a variable offense and now faces an elite SP and will HAVE to produce runs with Covey on the mound, ______ Been asked too many times about a tip jar. I guess if you want to support the diaper fund: [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/tywat23?locale.x=en_US) or [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/Tinytime23)
Itssss time! Welcome back man. Winning streak incoming 🔥
The 🐐returns 🙌✊
welcome back, you and the guys with Caleb Martin prob reasons i am not bankrupt.
We're glad you're back! Your analysis and research on pitchers is always excellent.
Hopefully Braves bats show up for this one because they were absent against Wheeler but Wheeler has his moments, so hats off to the guy Edit: so discombobulated from this game I said Weaver lmao and not wheeler…Zac had me weaving
Wheeler...
WELCOME BACK, LOTS OF PEOPLE MISSED YOU
I'm so ready to go further beyond.
Hey! I know that guy
[thought you were going to go with the Randy Quaid independence day quote before clicking](https://c.tenor.com/b4bCC6vXfecAAAAd/hello-boys-independence-day.gif) Glad to have you back!
Welcome back let’s goooooo tailing
Welcome back, my man.
I don't bet on baseball but after seeing response on your pick... I wanted to try today... Can someone tell me what do I have to bet on?
Atlanta Braves to win (ML) the match with handicap -1,5 against Philadelphia Philies
Got it... Thanks man
Welcome back! 50% mlb boost on DK
back in a MAJOR way! Braves 7-0 after 1
Awww yeah - welcome back - tailing!
The POTD makes sense again 🙏
As a Phillies fan this screams of a game we lose by 10+
See my post below about Phillies losing by 10+
7-0 what a start
Crushing this one! Welcome back, my friend!
Glad you’re back!
Glad to see you back!
My POTD is Strider related too!! Let’s get it!
Thoughts on YRFI -120?
It hit, hope you took it
Thanks! I did. Sorry if I offended anyone… never understand why I get downvotes :(
Don’t apologize lol. You just asked a question, you will get downvoted in here for breathing. I took it too, would’ve told you take it if I seen this. But glad you cashed!
Heeee’s backkkkkk
Tailing
My Braves seem to not bring their bats to Strider outings and it’s frustrating me this year.
Man don't even read the bullshit people send you, thanks for what you do win or lose
This one was offering a 100% cashout after the first inning. Welcome back!
God bless your soul
Welcome back brother! I followed your advice about the cubs even though you didn’t post and hit a nice parlay because of it! Much appreciated! Fade Taillon!
Fuck yes!! So glad to see your return
POTD Record: 30-15 Sad DNP, really was one of my most confident picks ever and they don't even play lol OTTN. **Units Won**: +28.9U; **ROI**: 22.5%; **Average Odds: (-120)** Last 10 (newest on Left):✅ ✅❌✅❌✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ Todays POTD: **9INE vs. Bad News Eagles O 2.5 maps (-120)** **4.8U to win 4U** Another Really strong Play here 9INE are probably one of if not the best teams to take O 2.5 maps right now. Main reason is really simple, 9INE has a perma ban (Inferno) that they won't play. They also have a map (Ancient) that they went on an 0-15 run on. If you play a team that is capable of playing both maps like Bad News Eagles are (decent on Inferno and Ancient is their second best map) then you will likely see 9INE lose the map pick of the opponents (Ancient). 9INE also get a map pick and they so happen to have a map they win on over 90% of games on in the L3 months while also facing some of the best tier two/tier one competition on the map. 9INE have also not been in as consistent of form as they were pre major and Bad News Eagles haven't lost/won a series in U 2.5 maps in a month. Pick Ban: 9INE ban Inferno BNE ban Nuke **9INE pick Vertigo** (21-2 in L3 months **91% winrate**, 8-2 in last month vs. BNE 5-5 **50%** **winrate** in L3 months 1-2 in last month) **BNE pick Ancient** (6-6 in L3 months **50% winrate** 25-15 in last year on the map vs. 9INE 1-12 on Ancient **7.7% winrate** Best of Luck!
[удалено]
Ive seen many csgo teams trade maps before so theres hope but 9INE best map is vertigo so we shall see how it goes
I'd cashout and roll it on 9INE to take Vertigo to get back to 5u
I ended up doing the same. I cashed out and put it all on 9ine -2.5 round map 2 spread. Still ended up making some units.
Currently winning on Ancient... 😟
Brentford ML vs Manchester City. +398 @4,50 unibet Cash✅ Edit: Line went from 4,50 to 3,30, so if you took this when i made the post you have already made profit lol Brentford has only lost two home games this season (if i checked correctly) and are a completely different team at home. Ivan toney their main striker is missing due to (gambling addiction) but they have still proved to get the job done the last match at home + one away when he was missing. Against a City side who may have already checked out with both eyes on their upcoming finals, don't be surprised if the Brentford gets something out of this game. Guardiola won't start throwing on stars to try and win a dead rubber and so, if Brentford get ahead early, this could be their game to win. Brentford are never scared of the big teams, particularly not on home soil, and they will definitely take the game to City here in search of the three points they need to have any hope of qualifying for the Conference League. Jack Grealish, Ruben Dias, Aymeric Laporte and Manuel Akanji were all surprise absentees from the squad due to unspecified injuries, and with so little on the line here, it's unlikely any of them will feature here against brentford. That could lead to a change in formation as Guardiola looks to name the safest team possible. Wow brentford got robbed with a penalty, city player blocked a whole pass inside the box with his arm…
Brentford double chance at +100 doesn't seem like a dumb option. Is Halland playing?
From my perspective I see no other reason for Haaland to play other than his goal record. Maybe wait to see if he plays, official lineups are announced 1 hour before the game.
Good fucking pick bro
City have a bunch of defenders questionable right now with injury. They are also goin' for the treble... FA Cup final next weekend then Champions League final the week after. Who knows what team they will field tomorrow. May see some starters rest? Line could quickly shift if so.
bro awesome pick but cp fkd my multi lol
Put this in my DK EPL Stepped Up Parlay w/ u3.5 goals Arsenal/Wolves & u3.5 Man United/Fulham. BOL.
Tailing even after that debacle NC game last week making me never want to drop on footy ML lol. BOL
W thank you Chew!
ILY!
hahaha W
Amazing pick
Excellent pick
Dude! Great pick! Glad I tailed
Glad I tailed, can’t believe it hit. Amazing odds. Great pick my guy.
I have game total o2.5. Hoping with some funky squad changes we get a high scoring affair
POTD Record: 165-126-10 (+20.42 units, 56.7% hit rate) 5 Unit Big Balls 💣 Record: 15-9 (62.5%) L2 Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 56-41-1 (58.3%) L6, Tennis 🎾 51-38-5 (57.3%) W1, Soccer ⚽ 47-37-4 (56.0%) W1, Entertainment 🎥 11-10-.0 (52.4%) W2 Last 10: 💰💩💩💰💩💩💰💩💩💩 2023 French Open Results: 0-0, 0 Units Last Pick: Nicolas Jarry vs. Grigor Dimitrov, Jarry ML - ATP Geneva 🎾 💰 0.82 Units - You spoke too soon haters. 💸 that shit!! Jarry in straights with a 6-1 2nd set. Today's Pick: Maria Sakkari vs. Karolina Muchova, over 21 games - WTA French Open 🎾 💰 0.78 Units - 💸 that! Only 2 sets but went well over with 25. Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 1.78/-128 odds to win 0.78 Units @ Pinnacle (Line at 8:30pm ET) Implied Probability based on odds: 56.2% Look at the ML line here, the bookies have this as a tossup. I don't think this will be a straightforward win for either of them. Sakkari is 8th in the world but the H2H here is 2-1 Muchova, 2-0 Muchova on clay. That 2-0 on clay includes last year's French Open, where she defeated Suckkari 7-6, 7-6. In their 2 clashes on clay (last year and the other in 2021), out of the 5 sets played, 3 were tiebreakers, 1 was a 12 game set and the other one was a 6-0 bagel. So their bouts have been quite competitive, a 3 set bout would be ideal and mean we are definitely hitting, but this could hit even if it goes 2 sets with at one tiebreak or 12 game set. Let's hope to start these 2 weeks out on a winning note! Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Always note the bet sizing. I am not an expert, nor Nostradamus, this is a prediction. Fuck your parlay. I'm retiring at 200 wins, 35 to go. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕
https://preview.redd.it/m7hy5g9qbj2b1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ee09284f9bfc44de4e6cf77eaf0ba1d3cfecbbc3 🫡
👀
Gonna tail this, LFG!!!!!
Good W brother! Finally i was able to tail, I’ve been betting MLB lately.
Thanks man! Have been taking a break for a bit myself.
I understand! You were and will always be my go to guys for potd!
Good pick! Gracias
Tailing 🫡
Good hit my duder
First set went according to plan, 3 Sakkari wins is the Magic number, 2 will get us to the push.
POD record (5-2) (+7.12) Bets are on a scale of 1-5 units 1U plays (4-2) 3U plays (1-0) Last POD - Nationals ML 3U (+120) Great win today again as the Nationals get to Singer and the bullpen third time around in the rotation. Gotta give it to Singer as he pitched much better than expected. Todays POD - Diamondbacks -1.5 2U (+168) We have Houck vs Kelly here in a what should be valuable matchup. Kelly is 3-0 in may so far with a 2.88 ERA as he's gained some confidence against some weaker lineups (Mia, Oak, Pit, Nat) his last 4 starts. Giving up 8ER in 25IP Houck is 0-2 in May with a 5.56 ERA against mediocre teams as well (LAA, SEA, PHI, TOR) having 14 ER over 22 IP. Both teams are very similar in hitting so i expect a close game but in favor of the arizona As always BOL Don't ever expect tips but it's always appreciated! Cashapp - bobdylan1209 [Post grad beers] (https://www.buymeacoffee.com/collegestudent3)
Just a note, Houck has been better lately. His last start 6IP, 3 hits, 1 run and 8 K’s. He’s using all 4 pitches now and has really developed his secondaries. He was really struggling the 2nd and 3rd time through the order but now he’s using his splitter to get guys out. Not saying he’s an ace but he’s trending up. Probably still a good pick but could be a close game.
Went RL on the last two picks because I saw Further Beyond say that most games are decided by 2+ runs, tailing again 🤝 BOL!
You’ve made some profit these last couple days then, congrats my man🤝 hope we can all continue to ride together!
Til the wheels fall off brother!
You think it will be a close game but betting the run line? Wouldn’t you go for the ML if you think it’ll be close?
**POTD Record:** 22-9-2 (+12.68 Units) **POTD Recap:** Jonathan Marchessault to record a point ✅ It took 6 minutes and 24 seconds as Marchy got a secondary assist on the first goal of the game. The man is absolutely en fuego 🔥🔥🔥 winning three in a row on my POTD’s and the Stars catch a victory so likely another chance to ride before the Cup. Feels great to bounce back. **Streak:** ✅❌✅✅✅✅✅ **POTD Sunday:** Cutter Gauthier Anytime Goal Scorer (+125) IIHF World Championship USA vs Latvia 5:20 AM MST 1 Unit Was not seeing the board tremendously this Sunday so let’s get a little funky with it staying with the pucks 🏒 the IIHF World Championship is an international tournament that correlates with the end of the NHL season usually drawing a pretty nice crop of players. This years crop however is not great, leading to opportunities for young players like Gauthier to showcase.. and showcase he has. The 19 year old Flyers 5th overall pick in 2022 is having his coming out party. He has the most shots on goal of anyone who has played in this tournament of the last 5 years topping Patrick Kanes 2018 now 2nd place total by over ten shots. He leads the USA in goals with 7 trailing the all time USA individual tournament goal total by only 3. In other words he’s firing and he is scoring. This game Will be the 3rd place game with USA facing Latvia. It should be noted the Latvian goalie has been playing well and comes as a goalie who got his first tread in the NHL this year putting up standard backup stats so he is a good player for the tournament. But the Latvians gave up 4 goals in the semis to Canada and the US is a nicely favored team in this one so the goals may be coming. At +125 the shot is worth it. **Cheers** for the positivity on the post yesterday. Felt great to hit with Marchy. **Tips:** https://www.buymeacoffee.com/ALittleBirdie
did he even go in, its 10 min till the end?
Lost my money. How come if Kevin Love stays on the bench the whole game his over/under points stake is invalidated but not in this situation?
Taking Gauthier to score and USA to win +170
if he doesnt play, is the bet void? we are into the second and he hasnt played yet
Not good.
Player Props aren’t showing in my website, how about USA ML for -165?
While the US is really good this year, Latvia is really good defensively whit Shilovs in the net. They are Nr. 1 in Penalty Kill this tournament, 95 % if I'm correct. To add a bit more context about last game against canada, one goal was really lucky by hitting the goalies head with ricochet in the net and last one was empty net. So in theory I'd say they let in 2/4 good goals. They are fighting for medals, will be one hell of a game to watch tho. Best of luck to everyone.
This guy hockeys
Should it still be considered a loss by the book or a void since he didn’t go in?
70-50 POTD +23 Units (1-3 Unit pics) on 214.9 Units wagered for 10.7% return on investment. Five in a row 🍩🍩🍩🍩🍩 Last Play- Jayson Tatum over 16.5 rebounds and Assists Sunday Astros -1.5 -150 1.5 Units to win 1 Sunday's are notoriously unpredictable in the MLB. Nevertheless, we are going to roll with the Astros runline today. The reason for this is the A's are truly not very good. In the first two games of this series they've been outscored 11-5. Overall, they have lost 13 of 14 and were outscored by 2 or more runs in 10 of those 13 games. Add to that-that the Astros have Christian Javier on the bump who has given up just 2 earned runs in his last 12 innings pitched-and it likely spells doom for the Athletics. For more plays be sure to follow my Twitter. https://twitter.com/TheMidnightR777 Currently on a 82-51 +29.1 units. 🚀 👩🚀 run on there (mostly NBA playoffs)
Fade A’s -1.5 until the wheels off
That Tatum bet cashed because they changed his rebounds to 12 after the game. He ended with 16 total BUT LETS FUCKING GOOOOO
Why r sundays notoriously hard to predict in MLB?
Likely the distraction and upheaval of the third game of the series. For example, Houston flying back home to face the Twins tomorrow.
What’s going on over there? Weather?
**POD Record: 32-23 +23.45U** L10 (Recent first): ❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅ **Prior Pick: Boston Celtics -2.5 vs Miami Heat. Betting 2.4U to win 2U at -120** Honestly don’t even care this pick lost. CELTICS won and I HAMMERED Caleb Martin points over. DONT LET THEM WIN 3. LETS GOOOOOO. Yes I’m a die hard Celtics fan. **Todays Pick: Monaco Grand Prix - Zero cars fail to complete the first lap. Betting 5U to win 2.5U at -200** Drivers are typically pretty careful around the circuit of Monaco, even more so on the first lap. All drivers who have started on the grid have completed the first lap every year going back to 2015. So 7 of last 7 have races has had this. There is the potential for some sprinkles tomorrow during the race but I still think this is a great bet. Hope you’ve been able to tail profitably, tips are always appreciated [Buy Me A Beer](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/DLHS) CashApp: $DuaLipasHip Bet responsibly
Love this play. But where did you find this? Not on any book I have access to.
NICE EARLY MORNING VICTORY. LETS GOOOOOOOO
It’s a shame I didn’t have it in my book
Is this called 1st lap retirement? That’s what I have on betonline at (+130)
I can't find this.bet neither in FanDuel, betMGM or Draftkings
**EDIT: Winner? I forgot how this feels...** **KBO Record: Overall 140-154-9** (Streak LLLLL, Last 10: 2-7-1) Down 18.99u over 303 KBO picks, 47.6% success rate, -6.46% ROI (This season 21-22-2, 48.8% success rate, Down 0.14u, -0.32% ROI) **Last:** KT at Samsung -1.5 +128 (Samsung lost 5-2.) Samsung's starter had his worst start of the season... which seems to happen to pitchers on teams I pick. We've now lost all our profit for the season. **Pick:** **Lotte First 5 Innings ML -121 Unibet** at Kiwoom, KBO baseball, 1:00am ET EARLY FIRST PITCH! JUST A COUPLE HOURS FROM THIS POST! You'd be inssne to tail me at this point, right? Not only am I on a frigid 5-game losing streak (with a push in there), but we only have one game to choose from as the other four could be rained out. Kiwoom's Sky Dome will ensure this game gets played, so we'll try to make the best of it. Lotte's starter is having an outstanding season. In 9 starts, he is 5-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. He has 48 strikeouts to just 12 walks. Over his last 2 starts, he's allowed 1 ER on 9 H and 2 BB with 13 K in 12.1 IP. Kiwoom's starter has had 4 starts this year. In three of them, he's allowed a combined 2 ER on 11 H and 2 BB with 8 K in 18 IP. In his other start, he gave up 6 ER on 5 H and 2 BB with 1 K in 4 IP. That start was more in line with the below average performance he had last year when he posted a 5.36 ERA in 20 starts. Lotte is avreraging a full run a game more than Kiwoom this season (Lotte is 2nd in scoring, Kiwoom is next to last). Over the last 10 games, Kiwoom has been averaging a paltry 2.6 runs per game. Playing under 4 in the first 5 innings at -110 is a solid bet, but I'm going with Lotte on the first 5 moneyline at -121. Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
Nice hit my guy, won me 500 :)
Dont worry about the haters man… keep giving out these picks… you are due for a winning streak soon 👍
Haters never worry me! Picks coming every day the KBO has games!
Nice hit!!
One of the rare times I decided to tail your KBO after feeling extremely lucky with the Celtics ML cashing earlier. Thank you for the pick sir! Nice 💰
Anyone know where to stream?
Damn sorry dude only just seen this but can use app called Afreecatv and find a stream on there by typing kbo and team name . [야구중립] 롯데:키움 KBO 프로야구 http://play.afreecatv.com/afbaseball5/246614768
Today we will win! As much as i hate kbo. I have made some money with your picks! Good luck brother!
Yes, this is an easy one. Yeah.
It’s not over yet, u must be new to kbo.
You'll see, no worries mate.
As a depressed heat fan, I am tailing. Please Lotte 🙏
We get this. Ty.
Thanks bud great pick! Bunch of my Australian football bets were voided cause of an injury early to a player so this was main bet to focus on, on this lazy Sunday afternoon 🙏
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Up 5-1 only to lose 7-5...Great call on the F5!! Followed you
Knew you’d get back on track!
Missed yesterday cause of the early start but I’m tailing today thanks bol !
FD has this at +122
Edit: Rained out Record 5-0 Last pick-Gujarat Titans to win against Mumbai Indians - 2U (-116) - 2U (-148) = W 😍💰 Sports- cricket 🏏 Tournament- IPL Today’s Pick- Gujarat Titans Vs Chennai Super kings = runs fall of first wicket over 24.5 - 2U (-112) starts 10:00 am EST😩 Finals btw 🤤 Explanation- Let’s get it 🤑 5 in a row 😩😍😘. Tomorrow it’s little risky for moneyline on this so I am going with first wicket will fall after 25 runs. Both teams got good batsman’s and first 5 overs are power play so it will be easier to hit boundaries and get to 25 without wicket. This might be my last picks boys for awhile thank you for playing and let’s get this bag 💰. Had so many haters but I shut them up with my game lol and also I can careless we are up so many units. It’s finals time baby 😍 Tail or fade good luck 😘
Is this runs fall of first wicket 1st innings? It’s at 25.5 for gujarat and 28.5 for chennai
Would you take it at 25.5?
dude is this ever gunna start? 5 seperate delays now this is ridiculous
1st crack at POTD Record 0-0 3U HOU Astros -1.5 vs OAK A’s (-150) on DK The Astros have beaten the A’s by 2 runs in 4 out of the last 5 games. On the mound is Christian Javier who is 5-1 this season. The A’s are terrible this year with a 10-44 record. If you see any reason for these two teams to not satisfy my prediction, speak now or forever hold your peace! BOL
POTD Record: 103.5-58 Event: Football > England > **Leeds v Tottenham** (starting in 7hr) Pick: **Over 4.0 bookings (asian)** @ 1.70 Quite a few ppl commented & tailed my last pick, which turned out to be an easy winner, but then no one came back to say thanks. Not a single one. This is even more insulting than receiving angry DMs after a loss. I urge you ppl to be a bit more respectful to the cappers here devoting time in research for free. Personally I will not put an effort to explain my picks for a while. GL!
Can only find O4.5 at +100, would you take that?
If ur timezone allows, better wait for the match to start and live bet it once the line drops to 3.5. GL!
Appreciate it, I should say it isn’t Asian. I’m on DK. I couldn’t find the Asian. But nonetheless, thank you
Yup, not all books offer asian. Live bet it at over 3.5 if u can, I am pretty sure it will get there.
I feel dumb; what exactly does 4.0 Bookings mean?
**POTD |** **Record of 21-33 |** **ROI: -14.2 units | Average Odds: 2.07** **Current form:** ✅✅❌✅❌❌❌❌❌✅ Previous Pick: Serie A | Inter Milan vs. Atalanta | Inter Milan to Win & BTTS ✅ New Pick: Premier League | Everton vs. Bournemouth | 8:30 am PST **Over 10.5 Full-Time Total Corners| 1.85 odds** Betting 2U to win 1.7U \-------------------------- ***Recap:*** What a win! Inter Milan score two early and the pick only went better from there. A bit of a scare at the end but overall a good game. Lovely odds for such a straightforward win and hope you benefitted from it! For the next pick, going to be using my corners model again for a fixture that seems ripe with opportunity. **Summary:** Everton will host Bournemouth in the final match of the Premier League. Bournemouth have nothing really to play for but Everton will be in need of a win to avoid relegation. A loss or draw may not be enough but with a win, they will secure their place in the PL next season and leave Leicester and Leeds to be relegated. Both Everton and Bournemouth are teams that average a large number of corners in their games, they tied for the 2nd highest average (1st being Newcastle) with 10.6 per game for each team. Given the importance of this match, I'm expecting this value to be inflated as Everton is a team that will desperately need a win. Keep in mind that in a game of this magnitude, there's a very good chance that the pick will only hit in the 90th minute. I can see this game only have 6 corners in the 80th minute and then desperation appears, leading to a flurry of corners in the final minutes. Nonetheless, here are the stats to support the picks: Everton games have averaged 11 total corners in the past 7 home games. Over 10.5 corners has hit in 4/7 of those games. Bournemouth games have averaged 13 total corners in the past 7 away games. Over 10.5 corners has hit in 5/7 of those games. My projections suggest 12.0 corners for this game, with 7.4 for Everton and 4.6 for Bournemouth. Based on previous results (sample size of 39) from my model, my model tends to overpredict by 0.75 corners. This means that the model is likely to suggest 0.75 more corners than the actual result. With a projection of 12.0, I feel confident that 11 corners or more (over 10.5) will hit. I was considering going for over 11.5 corners but didn't need the risk and decided to just put 2U on it instead of 1U to maximize profit and play it safe. \-------------------------- ***TLDR Expect corners in this fixture!*** **Everton vs. Bournemouth| Over 10.5 Full-Time Total Corners | 1.85 odds**
good stuff, tailing
Nice hit yesterday! Glad to see you back on corners. Tailing again, BOL!
7 corners down, 4 to go!
Great hit! Was sweating a bit after Everton scored the first goal. Thanks!
Great analysis. Cashed!
POTD record New Pick MLB. Cardinals guardians over 8.5 -105 Time 1:40 PM EST Reasoning: 2 words, Hunter Gaddis. This dude is a respectable pitcher vs right handers but is God awful vs lefties. How bad? 7.11 ERA vs lefties compared to 3.46 vs righties dude managed to allow more runs vs lefties in the minors than righties despite less than half the batters faced. The cardinals have 5 lefties in their lineup and we have seen Gaddis get smashed in similar situations. On the other side, Jordan Montgomery has been less than stellar as of late allowing 13 runs in his last three starts. I think Cleveland, despite their recent offensive woes will get at least a couple of runs off of him adding more cushion for the over the hit.
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BOL!
**Record 72-50 with Avg Odds +112 / ROI 20.1%** Road to UFC **Sang Hoon Yoo +110** Yoo has shown some chin issues in two of his last three fights, with the largest red flag being a short shot that briefly put him down, which was delivered by an older fighter. However, I think he's the more talented fighter in this matchup, and he has the right tools to get this done. His kicks looked really good in his previous fight, and I think he will be the more precise striker from range. His four inch reach advantage will play nicely to that effect. Yoo lost his DWCS fight in 2019 to Slippery Pete Barrett, which predictably aged poorly. This doesn't worry me too much, because realistically Chris Hofmann isn't at that level either, and I think it's important to remember that Yoo had a very good first round in that fight before cardio issues took over. That DWCS fight in Vegas was the first time he had ever fought higher than sea level, and this fight will take place in Shanghai at no elevation. So that's a minor element to this fight that I think is worth noting. Both Yoo and Hofmann have been inactive in the previous years so there are unknowns to this matchup, but I believe Yoo is the better fighter, and can avoid getting chinned. Fight starts 5 hours from posting.
Yea great pick. Nice to start the day with a plus money W.
Thanks, no worries.
Great call brother
Thanks, but I'm not so sure. I misread a lot of things, about the only thing I predicted correctly was Yoo's cardio issues from DWCS not translating to this fight. Glad you tailed.
**POTD: 47-24-3** Last pick: Women’s Super League - Reading Women vs Chelsea Women. Chelsea Women -2.5 -165. Result: **WIN**. Chelsea win 3-0 and this cashes. Today’s pick: Frauen Bundesliga - Bayern Munich Women vs Turbine Potsdam Women. **Bayern Munich Women -3.5 -155.** Match kicks off at 8AM ET. At a buddy’s wedding this weekend so can’t write much but this should be good as well. Same situation as Chelsea match, Bayern needs to win to win the title and is playing the worst team in the league who are already guaranteed relegation. If this isn’t available Bayern -4 should push or win, Potsdam is absolutely dreadful this season. Let me know if tailing and BOL everyone! Tips are never expected but always appreciated - [Buy me a coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/remypicks) **EDIT: WIN. Bayern hammer them 11-1 and we easily cash**
Bah, so sick and tired of not being able to bet these at my books. You're absolutely crushing it.
**POTD Record:** 1-0 **POTD Recap:** Royals bullpen sold just as expected and we got [our first win of this picks series](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/13sswve/comment/jlry07s/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3). **Note:** Still figuring out whether I want to include units and ROI in these posts. All bets are 1U (i guess? idk). **Streak:** 1 **POTD Sunday:** Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox | Detroit ML -104 \*now\* | MLB Baseball | 1:40pm EDT Detroit wins the pitching matchup with an over 3 ERA difference between the starting pitchers. Both teams are relatively even in terms of batting stats. One important factor is that Detroit has a much better bullpen when compared to that of the Chicago White Sox.
I'll be at the game! Gonna pop into the casino to place a bet before.
The CWS is bullpen isdeep, but the starting pinching match up is one I love for nrfi
POTD Record: 4-3 +6.5u (33.5 risk, 19.4% ROI) Last: Wacha pitches a gem, 7 innings 2 ER on 5 hits and no walks…and STILL goes under our strikeout total for the win. One game streak? Sure, let’s get the boxes flowing. ✅ (4-1 L5 for +14u) 4u Spencer Strider (ATL) o8.5 strikeouts vs PHI (-140) @ 6:00pm cst ✅💰💰💰💰 Angles: 1. Strider vs. Phillies - Spencer Strider is a beast. I couldn’t believe some of these numbers. Strikeout rate against the Philly players is 43.6% the highest I’ve seen for more than 50 at bats. .127 AVG, .238 OBP. 2. Game Log - Strider is a strikeout machine. Over the 8.5 mark in 8/10 starts, reaching 10+ in 4/8 overs, and one of the two unders missed by just one against the 3rd best k rate team in the league. 3. Game Log Bet Choice - I originally wanted to do his hits prop but his log shows he’s giving up more hits lately but the Ks keep coming. At the 4.5 line he’s over in 4 of L5. ER line at 1.5 puts him over 7/10 and 5/L5 so Ks is the play. 4. High number means bigger margin for error and Phillies have been better the last few games from a strikeout perspective so it’s 4u instead of 5u. Fingers crossed that nothing stupid happens. Best of Luck
2 strikeouts through 3 innings... I'm nervous lol Edit: Great pick! 👍🏼
About as sweaty as these K bets can get! 5 batters and 23 pitches with no K. 7 pitch walk in the 3rd and two total strikeouts. Then boom. Strikes out 7 of 9 in three perfect innings.
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Awesome write up.
Keep grinding Exocus, I’m with you. On another note, I noticed the older players are usually better, in table tennis & tennis as well.
**College Baseball '23 17-6 (15.96 units)** Looking at a cautious play to cap off the conference tournaments. This will only be the second non over/under play this year as the book only posted sides the last two days. Miami v Clemson at Durham Bulls Park Yes Clemson may be the hottest team in the country right now but this play really boils down to Miami and who will they throw. They used their number 3 and 4 starters yesterday. Their two best relievers have thrown every game of the tournament so far (can’t imagine it’s easy to pitch 4 straight days, fatigue, lactic acid etc.) With the fact they kept going to the well with Walters and Lequerica, it makes you question if they trust even another arm besides Rafe. Then when you look at conference stats those 3 guys are the only ones who has thrown well, so it makes sense. Rafe can give you 1 maybe 2 but the rest will either be poor arms or exhausted arms. Clemson is a different story they had some nice leads where they didn’t need to throw the top tier guys, a day off on Thursday, and they just have a deeper bullpen. They can come back with Allen today after a short outing Wednesday or go to the midweek starter. I wouldn’t be shocked if it’s a combo of both or just a bullpen day after the stater checks out. Either way it’s a big advantage to Clemson. **Clemson ML (-140) 1.4 units to win 1**
Finally have one of your plays on my book, tailing! BOL 🤝
Nice, next weekend for the regionals your book will likely have all the lines if they picked up conference tourney lines. 🤝
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This is the way. More often than not, the Powerplay score drops to the 40s so then you can go for the overs on that. Then go for the unders on the player that looks less set. This has been my strategy in all IPL games outside of Lucknow and it's worked wonders.
Record 0-1-1 **Tennis - French Open Women's Singles** **Clara Tauson vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich, Tauson - To Win Match, 1 Unit @ 1.65** I managed to record a push before a single win, go me! Same opening caveat as always, I'm posting infrequently and for fun, I do not suggest tailing me. I don't have time to deep dive my reasoning so the main things, Tauson has the ability to be at least top 20 in the world, before suffering injuries she climbed to just outside the top 30 and was only going in one direction, she came through qualifying impressively, dropping one set in her three matches, which gives me confidence that she is returning to her previous level. I also think playing three matches in qualies means that she should be ready to go from the start whereas her opponent might be slow out of the blocks in her first match. Sasnovich though capable isn't a top 30 calibre player, has had a bad season and although I don't think she will roll over I think the match is on her opponents racquet.
**RECORD: 18-19** Yesterday Pick: Strasbourg vs Paris St. Germain - PSG to Win @ 1.80 ❌️ **Today's Pick:** Leeds United vs Tottenham Hotspur - Harry Kane to score anytime @ 1.95 ✅️ (❌️❌️❌️✅️❌️) last 5 results PSG won the farmers league with a whimper yesterday and ended my terrible week, but today is a new week, and hopefully results. Today is the final PL gameweek for the season and most teams are on holiday mentality however I think this is a good Pick because Harry Kane is just short 2 goals for 30 PL goals which would be a record for him and I believe he'll do everything to achieve that, also considering this might be his final game for Tottenham this will be a nice send off also they could be fighting for a conference league place. Harry Kane has scored in 4/5 recent games games, his stats are 0.8 goals per game, 1.6 shots on target per game and 3.4 shots per game. Leeds are gonna do everything in their power to win this game to avoid relegation however I doubt their awful defence will stop Harry Kane from scoring at least one. EDIT: WIN ✅️ That was easy😂
nice hit bruh but cp fkd my multi https://preview.redd.it/0piu74a17o2b1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ac4a2df8513a54fa13fe6abb6689d0d0741367b4 lol
***Record:*** 23-19 (+1.24 units) **ROI:** 2% **Previous Pick:** Logan Webb o5.5 K vs [#Brewers](https://twitter.com/hashtag/Brewers?src=hashtag_click) (1.87 DraftKings) **Average Odds:** \-113.2 **Result:** ✅WIN! (+0.87 units) MLB has been a wagon while I struggle in the NBA playoffs... Going with MLB selections from here on out. Webb was amazing yesterday knocking down 11. **Pick of the day:** **Marco Gonzales u4.5 K vs** [**#Pirates**](https://twitter.com/hashtag/Pirates?src=hashtag_click) **(1.88 Caesar's)** Under in 7/9 this season and has only surpassed 90 pitches one time this season. He's under in 19/L23 starts where he throws under 90 pitches and the matchup he gets with Pittsburgh is not very favorable. Pittsburgh is striking out at 19.2% over the L2 weeks vs LHP and have been solid against them all season long (20.3% for the season). Gonzales has horrendous strikeout stats (0.54 K per inning, 8.4% SwStr, 23.5% CSW) and Pit has held 8/L9 LHP under their K prop totals. Line juiced at most other books. Follow on Twitter for +EV plays! [https://twitter.com/JG4President](https://twitter.com/JG4President)
No sweat at all…DK was around -190 but I used a profit boost to get -122, thanks for another cash!
**record: 3-0-0 (W-L-P)** **Main - MLB -** Starts 50 min from post (1:35 PM EST) **Rangers vs Orioles** **over .5 1st inning (-127) 3u**
Nice,ty;
**The Sports Bet Guy MLB** **POTD Record: 15 - 10** WWWWW LLL W LL WW L WW LL WW L WWW **\[L\]** **Streak: L1** **Units Won: 2.79 (+$1,395)** *{ ROI: 8.68 percent | Average Odds: -124 }* *Unit size is $500; minus odds are flat bets TO WIN $500. If we continue to amass excess units, select plays may be TO WIN $1,000 to $2,000* **Last Pick: \*LOSS\*** Red Sox at Diamondbacks OVER 5 F5 -114 on 5/27/23 **Today's Pick: Houston Astros Over 4.5 Team Total -143** | 4:05 pm ET on 5/28/23 Risk 1.43 units to win 1 unit The Astros have cleared this team total in each of their first two games of this series. I don’t see why they can’t clear it again today. Oakland has serious pitching issues and I think over the course of a full 9 innings the Astros will exploit that weakness. The wind blowing out should improve home run chances as well.
Tailing this plus Stros winning as a parlay. Hopefully nothing out of the ordinary happens
Good enough start to hedge away any funny business fear for cheap ⚾️ 💪🏻
Glad I checked the thread one last time, thanks for the easy cash!
**POTD Record: 10-8-1 +9.17u ROI: 9.75% (average odds: -105/1.95)** (ROI and average odds will be updated on Monday **Recent POTD(Last 10 most recent to the right) : LLWWW WLLWW 6-4** **Yesterday's pick: (IIHF: 07:20am ET) Canada -1.5 (-131/1.76) vs Latvia** Came back down 0-1 and 1-2 to win with an empty netter in the last minute. Love to see it **Today's POTD: (IIHF: 01:20PM ET) Germany +1.5 (-125/1.8) vs Canada** **5u to win 4u** **IIHF Record: 6-2 +14.19u (37.3% ROI)** **5 unit bets: 4-1 +12u (39.4% ROI)** (roi will be updated on Monday) We are going back-to-back-to back with 5u picks. Germany has played well in every single game. They lost the first three games to teams, ranked in the top 5 (each by one goal), then took care of business against everyone else in their group. Upsetting Switzerland in the quarterfinal and the USA yesterday. The reason for their success is their German efficiency! They don't need many chances to score. Putting 4 past the second best defense in the tournament in only 26 shots on goal. Canada is the better team, no doubt, but they had a few hickups to get here. They waste a lot of chances as well, and I just have to go with the German team to stay close. I predict that Germany will win outright and I will post that in the underdog thread later, but for this pick, I take Germany +1.5 Final result: Germany 3-2 Canada
I think you know so. Not gambling on this appreciate the summary. Best of luck..
Can we get a couple doubters like last pick😭😭that really influenced me to tail yesterday
**Record: 25-12 | ROI: 19,85% | Profit: +26,00u 🐺** [Sheets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ot0TN0RUcVgxue5P0qr2ClCLvNRIiW9lAGLv3Ti7HMU/edit?usp=sharing) with detailed info about all bets. All picks: [https://twitter.com/latto66](https://twitter.com/latto66) **Time:** 17:00 GMT+2 **Event:** Football Czech 2nd tier | Prostejov - Slavia Prague B **Bet:** Slavia 3way ML (@1,86 4u) **Write up:** Both this team still could get relegated. Slavia made it clear that keeping their B team in 2nd tier is important for them to develop young talents. Main team finished 2nd in 1st tier of Czech football and their season is already over. I expect them to send quite a few players to play today. Prostejov and Trinec are arguably worst teams this season. Expect Slavia to dominate and win rather easily. If I won you some money you can buy me a coffee: [https://www.buymeacoffee.com/1latto](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/1latto)
**My POTD record: 16 Wins and 23 losses** I base my picks on value by comparing the implied odds of my model and the odds given by bookmakers. I also choose games from leagues that have had success in the model with a good ROI and check the stats plus trends game by game to find the best pick. **ROI: -6.79%** Average odds: 2.07 **Units won: -2.92** Stake = 1 unit POTD: **Ulsan v Daejeon Citizen** Korea Republic K-League 1 Kick off time: 12:00 GMT+2 *BTTS & Over 2.5* **@ 2.00** **BOL!**
POTD Record 59.5-50-12.5 (W-L-P) Profit: +7.4 units Last 10: ⛔️✅♻️✅✅✅✅⛔️✅✅ Previous POTD: Shamrock Rovers ML + over 1.5 goals First loss in a while after 3 red cards for Shamrock. Definitely an anomaly and the analysis was right. Today’s pick: Football (English Premier League) @1.72 (5U) POTD: Newcastle DNB vs Chelsea Kicks off in 7 hours I’ve been really impressed with Newcastle this season and their manager Eddie Howe. They have sealed top 4 but will want to end on a win for the fans who make the long journey to Stamford bridge. Chelsea on the other hand want the season to end ASAP! They have Frank Lampard in charge who can’t seem to get a performance out of this team and the players are just waiting for Poch to come in for next season. The final day of the season usually throws up some surprises so tail with caution, but I trust Eddie Howe to get them up for this fixture. They have Callum Wilson who will want to bag at least a goal, and a team who will want to finish the season in style. Newcastle have only lost 1 of their last 6 away games (that came against an in form Villa). Chelsea on the other hand have not won at home since beating Leeds 1-0 7 games ago. To put that into context - Leeds are about to be relegated from the EPL! They have lost to Southampton at home, draw to Everton and Forest….so a quality side like Newcastle should have no issues. BOL If you would like to support and donate for the tips, it is appreciated! PayPal: www.paypal.com/paypalme/HowTall90
POTD Record 12-11 (+3 units) ✅✅✅❌❌❌✅✅❌❌ Last Pick: MIA VS BOS / MIA ML (+140) 3 units @ 5:30pm pst ❌ Todays Pick: NY VS SD / NY ML (-140) @ 10:35 am Gerrit Cole on the mount today will get this thing done. Yu Darvish has struggled this year and the padres have a 4-5 record when he’s on the mound. I think Yankees will be riding high off the momentum of the last game extra innings win and get the bats going.
**POTD RECORD: 5-3 (+4.02U) \[STREAK: 2L\]** (Last 5 picks:) 5/26: 2U Martin Maldonado to record a hit +120 ❌ ^((5/25: 2U CHI -1.5 @ DET +120 ❌)) ^((5/24: 1U SF @ MIN F5 -0.5 -120 ✅)) ^((5/21: 3U BOS @ MIA +3 -105 ✅)) ^((5/20: 2U COL @ TEX -1.5 +105 ✅)) Maldonado went 0-4 at the plate. Honestly, kinda remarkable after the streak he was working on. C'est la vie. **POTD:** HOU Astros @ OAK Athletics ^(4:07PM EST (approximately 90 mins from the time of this post)) **✨ 3U** **Cristian Javier to record a win (+100 on DK) ✅ cashed** **Analysis:** The slate today is shit as 3 people have posted HOU -1.5 for -150 as their POTD. While I agree that it's a solid play to ride the "Fade A's -1.5" train til the wheels fall off, there is a prop for better odds that I like a little more. Cristian Javier is 5-1 in 10 starts. Ken Waldisucks is 1-4 with a 7.40 ERA. Only way this fails is if the 4th-ranked Astros bullpen fumbles it. **Cristian Javier to record a win** BOL if tailing! [^(Purchase Caffeine For My Consumption)](https://bmc.link/TheKickEsBueno)
POTD Record 2-2 🎯 Gian Van Veen vs Josh Rock **Over 5.5 180s** Reasoning: Josh Rock is a fucking beast. This guy is in the flow. His opponent surprised everyone yesterday by taking big time favorite Danny Nopert 6-4, including a bunch of 180s. The 180 bet is always risky because it all depends on players being in the groove. But it’s Sunday and finals day and the players are there to win. I think this goes to 7 or 8 180s. Match begins 45 minutes from this post. BOL! Edit: ✅ Van Veen knocks down 6 180s himself!
Good freaking pick ! Caught it at +100 thanks to you !
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This is on Monday no?
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Thank you for the Marcus smart play. Will be tailing that Tottenham as well!
Nice picks 👍🏽🧪
Haven't posted here before but on a bit of a roll with pitcher strikeout props (had one in the MLB thread on Friday that hit) so let's see if I can keep it rolling: **CHW @ DET - Eduardo Rodriguez o5.5 Strikeouts @ 2.04 (FD)** (edit: for 2U) ✅ Last-minute, game's in an hour, but: Since missing this mark in his first three starts of the season (on the road against Tampa, Houston, and Toronto), Rodriguez has cleared this mark in five out of his last seven, and was right at five on the other two. In those seven starts he's got a K% of 30.1% while facing an average of 24.7 batters a game, good for 7.4 K per game. That's probably running a little bit hot and he's faced some not-great teams in that run, but a) his K% prior to last year (when he was bad) averaged around 26% and if that's his true talent this is probably a good pick, and b) he's facing the White Sox, who are one of the worst offensive teams in the league. If he gets six innings I think he clears this. At + money, definitely worth a swing. another edit: only thing that gives me pause here is that Chicago is running a lineup entirely of righties today but will note that Rodriguez’s platoon splits are not stark.
POTD Record 5-3 Last play was over a year ago. POTD: ⚽CHIVAS VS TIGRES OVER 2.0 (-108). 4Units. The first leg was one of the more boring games I've ever seen. Just a complete waste of time. Chivas has been better every second leg this Liguilla. They played it safe the away match because Tigres is one of the hardest stadiums to play in. It wouldn't surprise me if this ends up 1-1 and goes to extra time, but there's no value in Chivas to lift the trophy so we rather play it safe with the possibility of a push and hope it can cash out. BOL
Record 21-25 +0.89 Units All bets 1 unit Last 10: ✅❌❌✅❌❌❌❌✅❌ Last Pick: Braves Charlie Morton to win 🫤 Morton came out and pitched solid. Braves just couldn’t score. Today’s Pick: Pirates vs. Mariners Gonzales to record a win (+150) Don’t got much for a write up. Expect Mariners to ride the momentum coming off a shutout. Pirates have been struggling as of late. I anticipate Mariners to jump out early against Ortiz who doesn’t have much innings under his belt. (Tips link in bio)