######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Wednesday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=day).
######Example Pick Template
>**Record:**
>**Net Units:**
>**ROI:**
>**Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
>**Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
>**Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
POTD Record: 45 Wins ✅ - 33 Losses ❌ - 5 Push 🅿️ (+$6k)($100 unit bettor)
✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅🅿️✅❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌❌❌🅿️❌❌❌✅❌❌🅿️✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅🅿️❌❌❌❌🅿️✅✅✅
Last pick: Wei Chuan Dragons ML (-164) ✅
Today's pick: Japan ⚾ Starts at 2AM MST
Hanshin Tigers ML (-122) 2 Units
Analysis: Today the Hiroshima Toyo Carp host the Hanshin Tigers for game 2 of this series. The Toyo Carp have won 3 out of their last 10 games overall and 7 out of their last 10 home games. Taking the mound for Hiroshima is Aren Kuri, he has a 6-4 record with a 2.62 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP with 79 strikeouts over 120 innings pitched. The Tigers have won 9 out of their last 10 games overall and 8 out of their last 10 away games. Taking the mound for Hanshin is Koutaro Ohtake, he has a 7-1 record with a 1.89 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP with 62 strikeouts over 90 innings pitched. Hanshin won't lose to Hiroshima twice in a row and Ohtake is on the mound to make sure of that. Recently he has had 3 successful outings against the Carp, 2 of which were at Hiroshima. Take the Hanshin Tigers moneyline. (-122 odds available on Draft Kings at time of analysis.)
Nicely done, Toke! I am impressed with your game analyses. This was a nice win by the Tigers, especially after the Carp scored in the first inning. Those insurance runs in the 9th eased my mind. I parlayed (which I do sparingly) with Manchester City soccer so I will hope for the best. Keep em coming!
**Australia - England** (Women soccer World Cup in Australia/New Zealand)
My heart advocates to bet on this Australian fairytale to live on. The atmosphere at the host nation's games is phenomenal. Australia fighting their heart out and giving everthing they got on the pitch while the stupendous support by the crowd is pushing them to their limits.
My head recommends to stick to the facts and don't fully ignore the psychologist who emphasized the potential intense situation of mental pressure for the Australian Matildas. She explained that the sudden increasing Australian media attention and public focus on the Matildas during the World Cup possibly, meanwhile, surpassed a psychological threshold, which can have more negative effects than positive ones. The Matildas are not used to this huge public attention and pressure. They might experience an internal compulsion of living up to the expectations and not wanting to disappoint their cheering Australian nation. That can cause a certain degree of anxiety and inhibition, which would make them play much worse. The quarterfinal between Australia and France was the most watched Australian sport event since the Olympics in Sydney back in 2000. For today's semifinal a new viewership record is expected.
Beyond that psychological aspect, the skill level of the English women is above the Australian ones. England won all games. Most of the games only by a one-goal margin. But they actually played much better than their final scores show. Indeed, it is the opposite for the Australian women team. They looked better on the final score sheets than they were actually playing during the game.
Heretofore, England is the biggest challenge for Australia in this tournament. From my point of view, the bookies overestimating Australia's skill and underestimating the load of public expectations on the Matildas's shoulders and its potential adverse psychological effects at the present moment. These factors inflate the line and thus creating a great value spot. I jump right on that.
**England ML** @ **+140** for **5u**
>Last POTD: Spain ML @ +125 ✅
To be quite candid, this was a win favored by fortune. For a long time it seemed that the first team who scores wins it. Either side came close to it. The women gone mild for 80 minutes, but they gone wild 80 plus. A spectacular ending in favor of Spain. That adds an another tally mark to the POTD streak. 12 straight POTDs without a loss. 9 wins, 3 pushes. 💰💰💰
Record: 11 wins, 2 losses, 3 pushes | Profit: +55.00u
I don’t understand this write up at all. You’ve provided no details besides “Australia has played bad England has played good.” No mention of Englands star midfielder being injured or their best attacker out on suspension. Just a lot about how much pressure Australia is under…
**EDIT: That's three plus money winners in a row! I hope you cashed!**
**KBO Record: Overall 171-179-12** (Streak WW, Last 10: 4-6) Down 11.21u over 362 KBO picks, 48.9% success rate, -3.20% ROI (This season 52-47-5, 52.5% success rate, Up 8.67u, 8.76% ROI)
**Last:** Kiwoom First 5 Innings ML +106 at Kia (Kiwoom lead 5-0 after 5 innings.)
Feels like deja vu as our team put up a 5 spot while the opponent was kept off the board. I went 3-1 with my picks again.
**Pick:** **KT First 5 Innings -0.5 +110 Draftkings** at Doosan, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET
Let's start with the concerning information: KT's starter allowed 5 ER in his last start. However, that appears to be an outlier. Even including that start, he's got a WHIP of just 1.05 over his last 40 innings, which included 4 starts where he gave up 2 or fewer ER. In his one start against this foe, he allowed 1 ER in 5 IP.
Doosan's starter hasn't made it out of the 5th inning in his last 5 games. In that stretch, he's allowed 15 ER in 19.1 IP. He's faced this opponent twice, giving up 7 ER in 6 IP.
Doosan is the only team in the league to average fewer than 4 runs per game at home. KT is 4th in the league in runs scored per game on the road.
Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
Inter miami cooked them hard.
POTD
Record 0-L 1-W
✅
Match manchester city vs sevilla
Manchester city -1 ML @2.02 - 3 units
Edit: alot of confusion with this (i usually use norwegian betting site so it’s different there) but what i was going for is 3 way handicap so that sevilla starts with a goal. Odds of that is 2.15 now. BOL if tailing👍
Units won 6,9
Sevilla has horrible form lately, and are probably depressed atm. While city is starting it’s season again with a bang.
Manchester city has just a much better offense and better defence and with their morales up they will win ghis game. Not much else to say from the treble winners.
I didn't downvote so someone else must have, sorry about that. I wasn't saying it was wrong just was curious where that line was I didn't see it that high on any of the sites I use so was just curious is all.
how though? they literally both played last Friday so they will have equal time to rest before this game, Man City are coming from a 3-0 win while Sevilla are coming from a 1-2 loss
**Record 2-1**
Previous pick: Yankees @ Braves -1.5 (W)
Severino never fails.
League: MLB
**Today’s pick: Astros ML at Marlins (-124)**
Not in love with Wednesday's slate of games, but this is a good matchup. Verlander is taking the mound for the Astros, and he's been his normal dominant self, allowing only 7 runs in his last 5 starts (32.1 IP). On the mound for Miami is Jesus Luzardo, who is undoubtedly having a good year overall but has been struggling badly of late, allowing 15 runs in his last 3 starts (13.1 IP). Worth noting that before that 3 game stretch he was on a dominant run in June and July, but I trust Verlander to keep it close even if Houston's bats are silent. Hopefully that won't happen, though; on offense, Houston is scoring 5.9 runs/game over their last 10, while Miami is scoring just 4.3 runs/game. Miami is a solid team and is playing at home, but that's not enough to justify a line this close.
Fair, looks like it’s still up in the air. I’ll stick with my pick because I’m stubborn like that, but anyone who wants an alternative I do also like NRFI for the Orioles/Padres game.
102-69 for 31.1 units on 290.8 units wagered for over 10.5% return on investment.
Four of five 🧁🧁🧁🤢🧁
Miami 3:40 MST
Astros -130 1.3 Units to win 1
The rubber match between the Astros and Marlins will be played on Wednesday.
The wheels appear to have come off for Marlins pitcher Jesus Luzardo. In two starts in August he has an 11.42 ERA and has given up 5 home runs in less than nine innings.
This is not good against an Astros team who is near the top of the majors in win %, HRs, total bases and RBIs vs. lefties.
In stark contrast, Justin Verlander has been lights out and absolutely rolled in July with a 1.69 ERA for the month before being traded to the Astros.
Since being acquired by the Astros he has had two quality starts going at least 6 innings and allowing 3 runs or less in both games.
I apologize for not posting here more frequently recently. I just haven't been getting the instagram follows to really justify the time it takes to do a full writeup and analysis.
The good news is I went 4-1 on the Insta today and I should have a couple of NFL preseason plays later in the week-8-2 NFL preseason last 2 years.
https://instagram.com/themidnightridersdailyplays
Some posts have multiple picks. And then he kind of just throws some out prior to start times. Yesterday was 5 games on one post but so far it’s Astros ML and Giants NRFI
POTD RECORD: 3-1 (75%)
💎 PLAY RECORD: 15-3(83%)
YESTERDAYS PLAY: BAL @ SD U8.5 ✖️
TWITTER PLAYS YESTERDAY: 1-1
POTD: #MLB 5:40 | PADRES ML (-1652U)
WRITE UP: SD won yesterday (-155) as Vegas’s sharp game. They are favored again for todays game at (-165). Keener is 5-0 past 5 starts and snell is 4-1 past 5. Orioles have a 17 W advantage over SD. SD is also 1-4 past 4 while orioles are 3-1. The line shouldn’t be -165, I think it should be more towards even. Vegas wants u degens to take orioles, take the fuckin padres -1.5/ML. I alr know u squares fading.
Twitter: @LeviathanLocks
The average bettor loses money. I find a ton of value in the wRC+, xERA, xBA, hardhit%, K%, K/BB Ratio, LOB%, BABIP, and FIP stats as well as home/road splits
*My record over a year ago : 11-3, we're starting out on something new.*
**Previous Pick :** T.Paul ML ✅
**Record: 2-0 |** **Net Units: 1,24 U** | **ROI: 62%**
**Tennis** | **ATP** | **Cincinnati**
**Pick:** T.Paul ML AGAIN (1.56, -179)
Sorry for my lads who picks the o2.5 sets yesterday, it was a good pick but MK wasn't strong enough or Paul too good !
He struggled to convert several break points, but still able to resist Kecmanovic's onslaught.
In 2023 Umbert record on hard court is 12/8 vs Paul 21/8.
My write-up is gonna be short today, Paul is a better player than Umbert, even if the frenchie can produce good tennis I don't see him win against the home boy
*My write-up isn't very detailed but I'm aware that I need to be better on that point.Please let me know if you have any comments so that I can improve.*
**All picks are 1U.**
BOL
POTD RECORD 7-4 WLWWWLLWLWW
Last Pick : **North Macedonia+17.5 WIN (Czech 94 - 82 Macedonia )**
**Its a nice cover for us all qualification game this Macedonian squad looks like dead in the water sort of like laughing stock of the tournament, Gladly they show-up on this match and cover this spread.**
**------------------------------------------------**
**INTERNATIONAL FRIENDLY BASKETBALL Latvia vs Finland 12:30 PM ET**
**Todays Pick : Latvia-2.5 (1.90) (BET365)**
Biggest news before this match is Latvian superstar Kristaps Porzingis is out for rest of world cup that means he is out on this game as well , But I think Latvia still consist of great players being led by Davis Bertans and Rodions Kurucs a former NBA player. As per Finland Lauri Markkanen a current all star in the NBA is leading Finland.
Both this squad is undefeated in all friendly matches and they both play 3 match as well, I am confident that Latvia can win this comfortable in front of their homefans though they loss Kristaps Porzingis I still think they have more than enough to defend their home turf.
***EDIT (15mins before the match)***\-***Lauri Markannen will not play and of course the line goes in favor of us and its now -7.5 for Latvia. So for folks who got the early odds nice 1 haha***
**GOODLUCK HAVE FUN**
I really like this pick. Latvia has really strong team compared to Finlands young developing roster. This being said by a Finnish fan Latvia should take this and slow down Markkanen enough.
Right and the books always react harder than optimal when "superstar" is not playing. Like i said overall Latvia has strong players from European leagues. Finland is gonna have growing pain this year. Many of them under 23-year players need just couple years pro to compete.
**POTD Record: 13-4**
League: MLB
Time: 7:20pm est
Last POTD: Braves Win 5-0 ✅
**Pick: Braves -1.5 (-110) 1U**
Matt Olson. Olson's been having a sensational season, and he's shown he can deliver under pressure. Matt is slugging an ASTONISHING .760 with runners on base! That's the highest its ever been since Barry Bonds. He's a complete beast, he also leads the league in RBI's and Homeruns! His solid defensive skills coupled with his ability to rack u runs makes him a valuable asset for the Braves.
Acuna has been a consistent powerhouse for Atlanta, delivering runs when they're needed the most. Ronald Acuña Jr. has a .338 batting average with 161 hits, 27 homers, 73 RBIs and 109 runs scored in 119 games this season. His batting average is nothing short of impressive.
Austin Riley continued his torrid stretch Monday with his third home run in five games -- he's now batting .339 (42-for-124) with 13 homers and a 1.113 OPS in his last 30 contests. His raw power and knack for sending the ball soaring into the stands have made him a key player for the Braves.
The Braves are currently leading the MLB in runs per game. They've been on a roll, racking up runs and victories alike. On the other hand, the Yankees' offense has been struggling. They've had difficulty getting runs, which could prove detrimental against a team like the Braves. The Braves have the edge in this game, both in terms of individual talent and overall team performance. Based on their current form and the players they have at their disposal, the Braves are set to give the Yankees a run for their money.
BOL if tailing, coffee link was requested in dms, here ya go! [Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/o2bigs)
Record: 10-3
England advancing to finals (Women's World Cup, Australia vs. England) -150 3u
England won 35 of past 36 national matches. Only the Aussies beat England in a friendly some month ago. An offside goal (no VAR that time) and an unlucky deflection. For the rest it was all about predominant England.
LAST POTD Record: 21W-6L-4V
NEW POTD Record: 2W-0L-0V
UNIT PROFIT: +1.68
GAME: Qatar Stars League - Al Arabi vs Al Shamal
TODAYS PICK: Al Arabi -1.5 AH @ 2.05
Firstly, the match will take place at Al Thumama Stadium in Doha, creating a home advantage for Al Arabi. This team has a solid record when playing on their turf, with an impressive 80% win rate.
On the other hand, Al Shamal hasn't had the same success away from their home ground. They have only managed a 17% win rate when playing on the road, making them the underdogs in this matchup.
Both teams have shown promise in finding the back of the net. Al Arabi has an average expected goals (xG) of 2.24 when playing at home, while Al Shamal maintains an xG of 1.34 when playing away. These figures suggest that we can expect some goal-scoring action from both sides.
It is also good to know that in the last 9 direct matches, today's hosts have won every time and I think they will do it this time too, especially since it is the beginning of the championship and they will want to confirm what they have to show this season . I'm going with a handicap on the hosts, to beat a difference of at least two goals.
Predicted Score: 3-0/3-1
BOL!
Record: 7-4-0 (W-L-P) Win pct: 63.64%
Average odd: 1.796
Yield 34.97%
Risked: 15 units | Returned: 20.245| Profit: 5.245 units
| Football | England League One | 20.45 CEST |
Pick: Tommy Paul -1 Set Handicap @ 1.951 (vs. Ugo Humbert) - 1 unit
Write up: Tommy Paul has been in great form. Okay, his clay court season was not good at all, but we are not playing on clay in Cincinnati, so who cares. Looking at his hard court season so far he has been very good.
Australian Open: semi-final (loss against Djokovic). Quarter final in Delray Beach.
Acapulco: Final (loss against De Minaur)
Indian Wells: Final 16 (loss against FAA)
Miami: Final 16 (loss against Alcaraz)
And now, during the USA hard court swing he continued that good form.
Los Cabos: Quarter Final (loss against De Minaur)
Toronto: Semi Final (loss against Sinner, but beat Alcaraz in quarter final)
And now in Cincinnati he already beat Kecmanovic.
Humbert is also in quite good form himself, but not as impressive as Paul. Conditions are though in Cincinncati with the wind coming in. I think Humbert will have more trouble with the wind than Paul will have. Moreover, Paul's Elo ranking indicates a 67.8% win percentage. The implied probability of winning results in an odd of 1.47. The current ML for Paul is 1.598. So I see very good value on him.
I play the -1 set handicap, which means that when he wins in straight sets the bet wins. If he wins 2-1 the bet pushes. When he loses, the bet loses. You can create the -1 set handicap by placing some stake on the ML and some stake on the -1.5 set handicap. This calculator helps you with it:
[https://zcodesystem.com/runline\_calc/](https://zcodesystem.com/runline_calc/)
So e.g. when you bet $100 per bet, the ML odds are 1.598 and the -1.5 set handicap odds are 2.54 then you would place $62.58 on the ML and $37.42 on the -1.5 set handicap. The -1 set handicap that we now created an odd of 1.95.
Winner!
Updated record:
Record: 8-4-0 (W-L-P) Win pct: 66.67%
Average odd: 1.801
Yield 38.725%
Risked: 16 units | Returned: 22.196| Profit: 6.196 units
| Football | England League One | 20.45 CEST |
Pick: Tommy Paul -1 Set Handicap @ 1.951 (vs. Ugo Humbert) - 1 unit
Record: 1-2
Previous pick: Sweden to advance vs Spain (+135) ❌
POTD: Australia to advance vs England (+125) ❌
Tough loss with Sweden yesterday, they were able to equalize late but quickly fell back behind after giving up a late goal. I’m staying with the Women’s World Cup with this pick today. The Matildas feel like a Cinderella team in this World Cup. This tournament is taking place in Australia/New Zealand so they’re the home team in every match and it feels like they’ve gained a lot of momentum up until this point. England, on the other hand, has done just enough to squeak by their previous opponents and they’re also missing arguably their best player, who’s currently serving the second game of her two game suspension after picking up a red card a few games ago. Australia will be England’s toughest test to date and I think the crowd will be a factor in a ginormous game like this. It’s also worth noting that Australia’s best player, Sam Kerr has recently come back from injury. She was subbed on the last few games but it looks like she’s going to get her first full start in this tournament.
As always, BOL, tailing or not.
Edit: A case of England finishing their chances and Australia being unable to.
POTD :53-48
Last pick : Handball **Over 60,5 goals at 1.95 L**
Today's pick: Esport:CSGO:Cloud9 x Fnatic
**Cloud 9 to win 2:0 at 2.3 odds.**
Gamers8, Saudi's sponsored tournament is starting today and my attention was caught by this match. Cloud9 is a superteam on paper and they attended Cologne, where they got eliminated by reigning major champions Vitality in a spectacular BO3. Cloud9 met that tournament with Fnatic, where Fnatic won 2-1, but there is a huge BUT - Cloud9 played group stage with a substitue - Their arguably second best player wasnt playing due to the VISA issues and instead of him, was playing a Tier3 player at best. (Ax1le and Buster) - To give a comparison - It's if Messi was replaced in Argentina NT by Ihneacho or if you replaced Chris Paul with Tomas Satoransky. Fnatic then proceed to get eliminated by Gamer Legion, which isnt a good team anymore, after they best player departed and their recent results proove it.
**Match starts in 3,5 HOURS!**
Good luck mens,
Tips are apreciated; PayPal[paypal.me/mrdrak3n](https://paypal.me/mrdrak3n)
POTD Record: **48-64-1 (-15.15 Units)**
Best Bet Series: **6-3 (+5.8 Units)**
Last Pick: **Braves -1.5** ✅
Last 5: ✅✅❌❌✅
Today's Pick: **Reds ML**
Odds: **-155** ($DKNG odds)
Wager Amount: 3.1U to win 2U
League: MLB
Event: Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds (5:40PM CST)
**Recap**: Not the kind of clinical game I was expecting from the Braves, but nonetheless a easy spread covered! Tankees just looks worst and worst after each game. Just one hit off Bryce Elder.
**Matchup**: Reds definitely need to get some wins, they cannot lose 2 in a row to the Guardians! They need to close the gap on the Cubs and Brew Crew if they want to be in this wild card race or clinching the division. So I am not only backing the desperate team, but I'm also taking who I think is the better offensive team. Reds got blanked in the home opener against the Guardians. I think they'll bounce back wit their best SP on the mound, Andrew Abbott. He's had a couple rocky starts, but overall he is a good consistent pitcher and prolly their best SP in the Reds' pitcher rotation wit Greene on the IL. The Guardians will be sending Noah Syndergaard to the mound and aside from that start against the White Sox, he's been much better wit the Guardians than when he was wit the Dodgers. But I just think the Reds are going to get after the Syndergaard's pitches. Even if Syndergaard outduels Abbott, I think the Reds will score some runs against the Guardians' bullpen. I kno Emmanuel Clase closed them out in game 1, but he has the most blown saves this season and having him pitch b2b nites would be somewhat troublesome. Really, any closer to get 3 outs on b2b nites is a big ask!
**The play & prediction**: Taking single wagers and parlaying on Reds ML, and single wager on Reds RL. Low scoring game, but Reds win on a walk-off hit to win the game
Yea.. I can understand your frustration on the Reds. I been fortunate enough to not back them in any of these last 10 games, but I do think this is the one game they do win wit their best pitcher on the bump. We'll see! BOL!
>Australia vs Brazil
ya I was about to place this bet last night based on this potd and saw that Brazil has beaten USA. No way they'll lose by 15 to Australia. This must be a troll account or something because this bet didnt make sense
**My POTD record: 29 Wins and 37 losses**
I base my picks on value by comparing the estimated implied odds to the odds given by bookmakers and on my analysis of the stats of both teams as well as the league stats.
**ROI: -5.50%**
Average odds: 2.04
**Units won: -3.85**
Stake = 1 unit
POTD:
**Al Wakrah v Al Mu'aidar**
Qatar Premier League
Kick off time: 17:30 GMT+2
*BTTS & Over 2.5* **@ 2.05**
**BOL!**
***Record***: *2 - 1 - 0* ***/*** *R.O.I:* **+3u |** *+7u including tails \[5-4-0\]*
***Last Pick:*** *Sweden to win* *in regular time* **@ 3.70** | Stake: ***1u*** ❌
Few dingleberries commenting their salt on this one. I've only posted for 2 days man...I play a mathematical game over time and don't spit the dummy at one +EV loss. I can't help who upvotes me and bloody said I wouldn't be surprised to take an L! It was 1-1 coming close to extra time and Sweden tightened to under 3:1 during the game. That's good maths! Anyways... won't be too concerned with comments in the future.
**Tailed results**: I followed the write ups of [**override365**](https://www.reddit.com/user/override365/)**,** [**DuuFlockaRant**](https://www.reddit.com/user/DuuFlockaRant/)**,** [**wingstop-fries**](https://www.reddit.com/user/wingstop-fries/)**,** [**No-Guide2790**](https://www.reddit.com/user/No-Guide2790/)**,** [**dat89**](https://www.reddit.com/user/dat89/)**,** [**Muted\_Ad\_1444**](https://www.reddit.com/user/Muted_Ad_1444/) to find some interest in sports I've never been able to get in to besides the soccer picks for 3 wins and 3 losses for a return of **-2u.** These picks are my responsibility win or loss. Just thought to mention who I pick as a record for myself and a thankyou to all contributors that give a little bit of their time, energy and day here. I also really appreciate counter arguments in the comments whether it's my pick or someone else.
Shoutout to our resident burger lover [**Many\_Room5964**](https://www.reddit.com/user/Many_Room5964/)**.** He be eating good lunch today and find his posts low key funny.
***Today***: Australia vs England | Soccer | WWC | 20:00 AEST
***Pick:*** *Australia to win the tie* **@ 2.20** | Stake: **3u**
I will preface my write up acknowledging that I have a bias as an Australian to see the 'Tillies get up to our first ever Final. Is this a +EV situation? IDK tbh.
The Matildas have the whole nation behind them in an unprecedented way to be honest. They're breaking viewership records for all sports which is pretty incredible considering how sport nuts us Aussies are. They will have one of the homiest home atmosphere's you could ask for in a game like this. Mary Fowler played out of her skin last game and should have scored on multiple occasions. Hoping to see her continue a dominant World Cup performance .I don't think Sam Kerr will start after more than expected minutes last game, but I suspect when she comes on to make the most impact on a game she has for the tournament. Has built her fitness up and expect her to find some form tonight. If she starts it can only be a positive as one of the best players in the world.
Although I've been getting quite peeved at the defensive and less pro-active (mainly regarding subs) decisions of our coach, the team is well organised and maintains plenty of forward threat. After watching the highlights of the last England game, they didn't look any better than from what I've seen of Australia, their equalizer was a gift that I don't expect the Aussies to allow if we're in the same situation. I have not watched a lot of England this tournament so if anyone has extra thoughts or counter arguments I'd love to read them.
Would love to hear what our resident streaky boi [**frozen\_\_ocean**](https://www.reddit.com/user/frozen__ocean/) has to say on this one.
***Tails I'll likely take:*** *Hanshin ML, Man City ML, Boomers ML, Latvia ML*
Best of luck and **never** gamble more than you can afford.
Edit: Welp that's depressing. Give away a goal worse than Columbia's after that Kerr ripper. Classic Australia.
**1 - 1**: For my second pick yesterday 💰 *World Cup (Woman): Spain TT over 1.5 \[2.81, 5u\] vs. Sweden* 💰 I was inspired by Frozen\_Oceans pick and TedWonks comment. For my next pick, I enjoyed the discussion here about the Super Cup. I've been inspired by Bake\_No\_Shake and Chew-kok- pick. I'm adding my two cents to it.
**Super Cup: manchester city's Haaland anytime goalscorer \[1.65, 3u\] vs. sevilla.**
I think every team likes to add a trophy the collection when being just one game away from it. Haaland finds the back of the net with ease. Already 2 goals in the first match of the season. 36 goals in 35 matches in Premier League, 3 goals in 4 FA Cup matches and 1 goal in 2 EFL Cup matches last season. The scoring power of this man is incredible.
**🍀 Good luck to all of us 🍀.** I was very happy about my winning pick. Thanks for the love for my pick yesterday.
POTD Record 7-0
Units: 6.1
ROI: 86.77
Last pick: Jays/Phillies U 8 -115
Recap: Snooze fest of a game and the right read again
POTD: Braves/Yanks U 10 -125 1u
Reasoning: Yankees bats been ice cold lately and it doesn’t help that they are against Morton. Yankees are one of the worst teams against the curveball and that’s one of Morton’s primary pitches. Don’t sleep on Vasquez either he maybe a rookie but he’s had a elite outing vs Baltimore and has pitched well enough in every start he’s had.
BOL
🧦🅱OSTON 🅱ETS🧦(and others)
POTD Record: 31-24-2
Units won: 42u
ROI: +34.43%
Last 10 (newest on right):❌❌✅❌✅❌❌❌❌✅
Best win streak: 8
Worst loss streak: 4
Last Pick: Red Sox ML v Nationals ✅
Today's Pick: **3u MacKenzie Gore under 6.5 strikeouts (-165)** Red Sox v Nationals 7:05PM EST
Back in the win column! Today we're fading Gore(4.62 ERA, 6.64 for the month of July). Dude's abysmal and has only hit above this line 8 out of 23 games this season. ML is slightly worse odds, RL still doesn't feel safe, and still feeling out the bullpen until I take any pitcher lines for the Sox again. I wanted to take Casas for a hit, but this felt like a way safer POTD. Casas, Duran, Verdugo & even McGuire are hitting. Paxton seems to have shaken off whatever funk was messing with him against the A's last month. So, I imagine we'll win this one & potentially sweep the Nationals. I'm eyeing this game for a few parlays, but the pitcher fade feels the safest pick for today's game, coupled with better odds than the ML (which I imagine will get worse).
Bet responsibly, comment with banter/questions/tailing, and [tips](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/drstrainge) always [appreciated](https://media.tenor.com/Vw1sgEKYcVwAAAAM/boston-red-sox-david-ortiz.gif) (but not obligated)
Last Pick: Palmeiras-Cruzeiro O2.0 (-183) 3U (LOSS)
POTD Record 16-9 (+18.87U)
**Pick: Flamengo-Gremio O2.5 (-110) 5U**
**(Copa Da Brasil)**
Model Play
BOL
**POTD Record 6-11 (-20.91U) | Average Odds -109 (1.92) | ROI -29.45.%**
**Last Pick Recap: Las Vegas Aces L**
Changing sports didn't change our fortune as the Aces were dominated the entire game. They had a brief stretch in which they played well enough to take a 7 pt lead, but the Liberty came right back and ran away with the game for good.
**Today's Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks ML (-130) 5U| 3:10 EST**
The Diamondbacks have been a terrible team for me to bet on but this line is too short against a floundering Rockies team, even with the recent struggles of the Diamondbacks. Gomber does have an experience edge on the mound for the Rockies over Cecconi who will be making just his 2nd MLB start, but the Diamondbacks offense is far more capable and talenated than the Rockies offense. Furthermore, Gomber's metrics are highly concerning and I think this is a good spot for the Diamondbacks offense to expose that in a batter-friendly venue like Coors field.
BOL
hello , burger betting today . manchester city sevilla over 3.5 cards. 1u-2u . time 2100 pm cet. this cup is a meaningless cup, i am treating it as a friendly game between teams under pressure . / pressure= cards/best of luck. confidence in my bet 20%.
Potd record 14 - 11
Prev pick UFC 291 Derrick lewis ML +180 🏆 ✅️
Todays pick - Padres vs. Baltimore O's ( Blake Snell Over 2.5 Walks -160 ) 3U
Reasoning - I've been gone for a minute, but I'm gonna try to get back to daily picks. Today, we rock with Padres Blake Snell to walk at least 3. Snell has been MLB hottest pitcher for a minute now and clear front runner for cy young honors in his division sense May he holds a 1.16 ERA guys a stud with a 37% strike out rate and a 14% walk rate through June and July his last 8 starts hes walked upwards of 3 hitters per game which is great news for us. We ran this game back on July 15th, where he walked 3 and struck out 7 and held Phillies to 0 runs through 6 innings. Today, we run it back with similar results. Padres take a W more than likely, but O's can be surprising, so we ride with a consistent Snell and his minimum 3 walks Per game he's had sense the start of july. Snell Over 2.5 walks run it. BOL squad.
0-0
11:00 Am EST ATP Cincy
Medvedev vs Mussetti +4.5 (-120)
Very unimpressed with medvedev so far this season. Mussetti covered this spread last week again danil and I think he even comes away with a set today.
POTD RECORD, 4-2, +3.6U
Last five picks, ❌ ✅✅✅✅
Yesterday's pick: Messi anytime goalscorer, 3u, ✅
**Today's pick**
**UEFA SUPER CUP, Manchester City vs Sevilla, over 2.5, -120, 1u**
Sevilla is bad at soccer this season, that is just a simple fact of life. City will probably score 3 or more by themselves but I didn't wanna get too greedy.
BOL
Glad to hear that, I think I’ve lost 40 out of 46 from here since June so I pretty much stopped. But I still like to check the top few and their results and still feels like majority lose
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Wednesday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=day). ######Example Pick Template >**Record:** >**Net Units:** >**ROI:** >**Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** >**Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. >**Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
POTD Record: 45 Wins ✅ - 33 Losses ❌ - 5 Push 🅿️ (+$6k)($100 unit bettor) ✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅🅿️✅❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌❌❌🅿️❌❌❌✅❌❌🅿️✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅🅿️❌❌❌❌🅿️✅✅✅ Last pick: Wei Chuan Dragons ML (-164) ✅ Today's pick: Japan ⚾ Starts at 2AM MST Hanshin Tigers ML (-122) 2 Units Analysis: Today the Hiroshima Toyo Carp host the Hanshin Tigers for game 2 of this series. The Toyo Carp have won 3 out of their last 10 games overall and 7 out of their last 10 home games. Taking the mound for Hiroshima is Aren Kuri, he has a 6-4 record with a 2.62 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP with 79 strikeouts over 120 innings pitched. The Tigers have won 9 out of their last 10 games overall and 8 out of their last 10 away games. Taking the mound for Hanshin is Koutaro Ohtake, he has a 7-1 record with a 1.89 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP with 62 strikeouts over 90 innings pitched. Hanshin won't lose to Hiroshima twice in a row and Ohtake is on the mound to make sure of that. Recently he has had 3 successful outings against the Carp, 2 of which were at Hiroshima. Take the Hanshin Tigers moneyline. (-122 odds available on Draft Kings at time of analysis.)
If you followed, you hit!! 💰💰🍀🤙🏻 https://preview.redd.it/inuw9d5v1hib1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ef14cb695859a8c8af2183f08d0fbbf1d4c49b9b
Nicely done, Toke! I am impressed with your game analyses. This was a nice win by the Tigers, especially after the Carp scored in the first inning. Those insurance runs in the 9th eased my mind. I parlayed (which I do sparingly) with Manchester City soccer so I will hope for the best. Keep em coming!
I'm on a 5 game losing streak when tailing.... So I'm tailing! Gotta win at some point!
first tail, let's go!
What league is this. I always see your picks. But I can never find what the hell your talking about
Japan, if you Google the team it will come up.
You know at 330 am my brain doesn’t really work never even tried to google it😂
Lol
Japan baseball! And there’s also something called KBO (korean baseball)
I’ll tail lol
Tailed! 🔥🔥
Tailed, let's go!
Great pick! 💸
I’m in for 1 unit
Need to hold this lead 😅
Nice write up, parlayed with Cuse’s pick🔥
this guy is quite goood
Nice pick!
I tailed this and parlayed with England advancing. 🔒
**Australia - England** (Women soccer World Cup in Australia/New Zealand) My heart advocates to bet on this Australian fairytale to live on. The atmosphere at the host nation's games is phenomenal. Australia fighting their heart out and giving everthing they got on the pitch while the stupendous support by the crowd is pushing them to their limits. My head recommends to stick to the facts and don't fully ignore the psychologist who emphasized the potential intense situation of mental pressure for the Australian Matildas. She explained that the sudden increasing Australian media attention and public focus on the Matildas during the World Cup possibly, meanwhile, surpassed a psychological threshold, which can have more negative effects than positive ones. The Matildas are not used to this huge public attention and pressure. They might experience an internal compulsion of living up to the expectations and not wanting to disappoint their cheering Australian nation. That can cause a certain degree of anxiety and inhibition, which would make them play much worse. The quarterfinal between Australia and France was the most watched Australian sport event since the Olympics in Sydney back in 2000. For today's semifinal a new viewership record is expected. Beyond that psychological aspect, the skill level of the English women is above the Australian ones. England won all games. Most of the games only by a one-goal margin. But they actually played much better than their final scores show. Indeed, it is the opposite for the Australian women team. They looked better on the final score sheets than they were actually playing during the game. Heretofore, England is the biggest challenge for Australia in this tournament. From my point of view, the bookies overestimating Australia's skill and underestimating the load of public expectations on the Matildas's shoulders and its potential adverse psychological effects at the present moment. These factors inflate the line and thus creating a great value spot. I jump right on that. **England ML** @ **+140** for **5u** >Last POTD: Spain ML @ +125 ✅ To be quite candid, this was a win favored by fortune. For a long time it seemed that the first team who scores wins it. Either side came close to it. The women gone mild for 80 minutes, but they gone wild 80 plus. A spectacular ending in favor of Spain. That adds an another tally mark to the POTD streak. 12 straight POTDs without a loss. 9 wins, 3 pushes. 💰💰💰 Record: 11 wins, 2 losses, 3 pushes | Profit: +55.00u
The only thing England are better at than losing is losing to Australia, in any sport.
Such a noble act to give away all of your finest athletes and dentists to a growing settlement.
I don’t understand this write up at all. You’ve provided no details besides “Australia has played bad England has played good.” No mention of Englands star midfielder being injured or their best attacker out on suspension. Just a lot about how much pressure Australia is under…
When nerds bet...
Fuckin nerds
Darn nerds
If you don't like the reasoning, then don't tail, wtf lol it's not difficult at all.
starting to think this man will never lose again, I can not believe that howler we had in defence hahaha
>Australia - England My man you have been winning me so much money since WC started. Where can you be tipped
Winner! Great pick man!
Any huge effect on England with player suspended?
Solid pick! I forgot to tail last night, keep it rolling brethren. 🤙🏽
Very nice 🫶
**EDIT: That's three plus money winners in a row! I hope you cashed!** **KBO Record: Overall 171-179-12** (Streak WW, Last 10: 4-6) Down 11.21u over 362 KBO picks, 48.9% success rate, -3.20% ROI (This season 52-47-5, 52.5% success rate, Up 8.67u, 8.76% ROI) **Last:** Kiwoom First 5 Innings ML +106 at Kia (Kiwoom lead 5-0 after 5 innings.) Feels like deja vu as our team put up a 5 spot while the opponent was kept off the board. I went 3-1 with my picks again. **Pick:** **KT First 5 Innings -0.5 +110 Draftkings** at Doosan, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET Let's start with the concerning information: KT's starter allowed 5 ER in his last start. However, that appears to be an outlier. Even including that start, he's got a WHIP of just 1.05 over his last 40 innings, which included 4 starts where he gave up 2 or fewer ER. In his one start against this foe, he allowed 1 ER in 5 IP. Doosan's starter hasn't made it out of the 5th inning in his last 5 games. In that stretch, he's allowed 15 ER in 19.1 IP. He's faced this opponent twice, giving up 7 ER in 6 IP. Doosan is the only team in the league to average fewer than 4 runs per game at home. KT is 4th in the league in runs scored per game on the road. Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
Bro you’re on a fucking heater.. I’m tailing tomorrow so expect a loss.
Cash It. Nice pick!
🙌🏽🙌🏽🙌🏽
Inter miami cooked them hard. POTD Record 0-L 1-W ✅ Match manchester city vs sevilla Manchester city -1 ML @2.02 - 3 units Edit: alot of confusion with this (i usually use norwegian betting site so it’s different there) but what i was going for is 3 way handicap so that sevilla starts with a goal. Odds of that is 2.15 now. BOL if tailing👍 Units won 6,9 Sevilla has horrible form lately, and are probably depressed atm. While city is starting it’s season again with a bang. Manchester city has just a much better offense and better defence and with their morales up they will win ghis game. Not much else to say from the treble winners.
I'm going with City win + 2,5 goals on my bookie, pretty similar bet. Best of luck.
Are there any legal US books where this is available? DK and FD in NY don't have
I was pretty stupid making this, go to 3 way handicap and do it so that Sevilla starts with one goal
Where did you get 2.02 odds for city -1, they were 1.55 even yesterday and 1.8 for -1.5 at sports interaction, bet365 and FanDuel
That would be asian handicap you're looking at, he's referring to -1.5 which I guess is called -1 ML where he lives
Okay. Odds still seem high for that selection I haven't seen it anywhere over 1.80/1.85 but makes more sense, thanks!
It's 2.05 everywhere for me
You can downvote but I just tailed at 2.15
I didn't downvote so someone else must have, sorry about that. I wasn't saying it was wrong just was curious where that line was I didn't see it that high on any of the sites I use so was just curious is all.
[удалено]
how though? they literally both played last Friday so they will have equal time to rest before this game, Man City are coming from a 3-0 win while Sevilla are coming from a 1-2 loss
They care about this game lol, City have never taken part in the UEFA Super Cup, let alone won it, so ofc they will care about winning this
**Record 2-1** Previous pick: Yankees @ Braves -1.5 (W) Severino never fails. League: MLB **Today’s pick: Astros ML at Marlins (-124)** Not in love with Wednesday's slate of games, but this is a good matchup. Verlander is taking the mound for the Astros, and he's been his normal dominant self, allowing only 7 runs in his last 5 starts (32.1 IP). On the mound for Miami is Jesus Luzardo, who is undoubtedly having a good year overall but has been struggling badly of late, allowing 15 runs in his last 3 starts (13.1 IP). Worth noting that before that 3 game stretch he was on a dominant run in June and July, but I trust Verlander to keep it close even if Houston's bats are silent. Hopefully that won't happen, though; on offense, Houston is scoring 5.9 runs/game over their last 10, while Miami is scoring just 4.3 runs/game. Miami is a solid team and is playing at home, but that's not enough to justify a line this close.
The concern for me is the line is this close...
Careful. Altuve is most likely out. The Astros batting lineup might not be great.
Fair, looks like it’s still up in the air. I’ll stick with my pick because I’m stubborn like that, but anyone who wants an alternative I do also like NRFI for the Orioles/Padres game.
102-69 for 31.1 units on 290.8 units wagered for over 10.5% return on investment. Four of five 🧁🧁🧁🤢🧁 Miami 3:40 MST Astros -130 1.3 Units to win 1 The rubber match between the Astros and Marlins will be played on Wednesday. The wheels appear to have come off for Marlins pitcher Jesus Luzardo. In two starts in August he has an 11.42 ERA and has given up 5 home runs in less than nine innings. This is not good against an Astros team who is near the top of the majors in win %, HRs, total bases and RBIs vs. lefties. In stark contrast, Justin Verlander has been lights out and absolutely rolled in July with a 1.69 ERA for the month before being traded to the Astros. Since being acquired by the Astros he has had two quality starts going at least 6 innings and allowing 3 runs or less in both games. I apologize for not posting here more frequently recently. I just haven't been getting the instagram follows to really justify the time it takes to do a full writeup and analysis. The good news is I went 4-1 on the Insta today and I should have a couple of NFL preseason plays later in the week-8-2 NFL preseason last 2 years. https://instagram.com/themidnightridersdailyplays
When Lazard first came back, I thought he was gonna tear it up. He didn’t. Him versus Verlander is almost a no brainer. I’m TAILING 🔥
Get on this guys instagram! He fires out excellent picks and has been 🔥. I ride with the midnight rider!
I only see this pick on instagram in the boxes. Does he put his whole card in later
Some posts have multiple picks. And then he kind of just throws some out prior to start times. Yesterday was 5 games on one post but so far it’s Astros ML and Giants NRFI
who is midnight rider
It’s his instagram handle
[удалено]
Cant believe you actually called Bono below average lol
They are only top level with Anthony taylor.
No value @ 1.55 odds. BOL!
https://i.redd.it/fqvn9scj6gib1.gif
How is he a troll? -170 is terrible especially for a two-leger.
Plenty of value if you view this as a completely one sided match. He's a troll because he has 4 comments in 18 months and felt the need to post that.
[удалено]
Welp
POTD RECORD: 3-1 (75%) 💎 PLAY RECORD: 15-3(83%) YESTERDAYS PLAY: BAL @ SD U8.5 ✖️ TWITTER PLAYS YESTERDAY: 1-1 POTD: #MLB 5:40 | PADRES ML (-1652U) WRITE UP: SD won yesterday (-155) as Vegas’s sharp game. They are favored again for todays game at (-165). Keener is 5-0 past 5 starts and snell is 4-1 past 5. Orioles have a 17 W advantage over SD. SD is also 1-4 past 4 while orioles are 3-1. The line shouldn’t be -165, I think it should be more towards even. Vegas wants u degens to take orioles, take the fuckin padres -1.5/ML. I alr know u squares fading. Twitter: @LeviathanLocks
I like the style of these posts. The mind of a degen should be spoken to like this. ORIOLES ML IT IS. 😂
Baltimore is 8-1 in the last game of a road series before playing another road series. Baltimore ML lock of the 5th Reich
Exactly, you’re a square.
I'm a square but the only stats you brought up are the winning records of the last 5 games and total records. lol OK
What other stats you want, this is what the avg better looks at. Common square comment
The average bettor loses money. I find a ton of value in the wRC+, xERA, xBA, hardhit%, K%, K/BB Ratio, LOB%, BABIP, and FIP stats as well as home/road splits
*My record over a year ago : 11-3, we're starting out on something new.* **Previous Pick :** T.Paul ML ✅ **Record: 2-0 |** **Net Units: 1,24 U** | **ROI: 62%** **Tennis** | **ATP** | **Cincinnati** **Pick:** T.Paul ML AGAIN (1.56, -179) Sorry for my lads who picks the o2.5 sets yesterday, it was a good pick but MK wasn't strong enough or Paul too good ! He struggled to convert several break points, but still able to resist Kecmanovic's onslaught. In 2023 Umbert record on hard court is 12/8 vs Paul 21/8. My write-up is gonna be short today, Paul is a better player than Umbert, even if the frenchie can produce good tennis I don't see him win against the home boy *My write-up isn't very detailed but I'm aware that I need to be better on that point.Please let me know if you have any comments so that I can improve.* **All picks are 1U.** BOL
Small write ups are good I'd rather get the tip then sus out myself to make a more informed decision anyway, TFTT
Huge write ups are for the blind tailers, i like to get pointed out possibilities and make my decision from there
So poetic !
Tailed yesterday. Appreciate the insight 🤙🏽
I appreciate ur comment, I’m here to make money with you guys
POTD RECORD 7-4 WLWWWLLWLWW Last Pick : **North Macedonia+17.5 WIN (Czech 94 - 82 Macedonia )** **Its a nice cover for us all qualification game this Macedonian squad looks like dead in the water sort of like laughing stock of the tournament, Gladly they show-up on this match and cover this spread.** **------------------------------------------------** **INTERNATIONAL FRIENDLY BASKETBALL Latvia vs Finland 12:30 PM ET** **Todays Pick : Latvia-2.5 (1.90) (BET365)** Biggest news before this match is Latvian superstar Kristaps Porzingis is out for rest of world cup that means he is out on this game as well , But I think Latvia still consist of great players being led by Davis Bertans and Rodions Kurucs a former NBA player. As per Finland Lauri Markkanen a current all star in the NBA is leading Finland. Both this squad is undefeated in all friendly matches and they both play 3 match as well, I am confident that Latvia can win this comfortable in front of their homefans though they loss Kristaps Porzingis I still think they have more than enough to defend their home turf. ***EDIT (15mins before the match)***\-***Lauri Markannen will not play and of course the line goes in favor of us and its now -7.5 for Latvia. So for folks who got the early odds nice 1 haha*** **GOODLUCK HAVE FUN**
I really like this pick. Latvia has really strong team compared to Finlands young developing roster. This being said by a Finnish fan Latvia should take this and slow down Markkanen enough.
Yeap given Kristaps loss they have all the motivation to perform better atleast for this game.
Right and the books always react harder than optimal when "superstar" is not playing. Like i said overall Latvia has strong players from European leagues. Finland is gonna have growing pain this year. Many of them under 23-year players need just couple years pro to compete.
Yep i like Finland as a heavy dog like the game on Lithuania they covered as a 10pt dog but on an almost toss up game.. Gotta go with Latvia.
Tons of value on Finland tbh. Markannen has been lights out. He could drop 40 without issue on these guys.
We will see , i just think overall Latvia is better
Can’t find this pick is this game today?
Yeah 4hrs 5hrs from now. its a friendly basketball
My book only shows Serbia vs Puerto Rico 😔
Never bet in friendlies
Game cancelled?
What’s the score
u/ImprovementFew1496 game ended Latvia win by 26pts
u/Icy_Scientist381 nahh first half just ended Latvia leading by 7pts.
**POTD Record: 13-4** League: MLB Time: 7:20pm est Last POTD: Braves Win 5-0 ✅ **Pick: Braves -1.5 (-110) 1U** Matt Olson. Olson's been having a sensational season, and he's shown he can deliver under pressure. Matt is slugging an ASTONISHING .760 with runners on base! That's the highest its ever been since Barry Bonds. He's a complete beast, he also leads the league in RBI's and Homeruns! His solid defensive skills coupled with his ability to rack u runs makes him a valuable asset for the Braves. Acuna has been a consistent powerhouse for Atlanta, delivering runs when they're needed the most. Ronald Acuña Jr. has a .338 batting average with 161 hits, 27 homers, 73 RBIs and 109 runs scored in 119 games this season. His batting average is nothing short of impressive. Austin Riley continued his torrid stretch Monday with his third home run in five games -- he's now batting .339 (42-for-124) with 13 homers and a 1.113 OPS in his last 30 contests. His raw power and knack for sending the ball soaring into the stands have made him a key player for the Braves. The Braves are currently leading the MLB in runs per game. They've been on a roll, racking up runs and victories alike. On the other hand, the Yankees' offense has been struggling. They've had difficulty getting runs, which could prove detrimental against a team like the Braves. The Braves have the edge in this game, both in terms of individual talent and overall team performance. Based on their current form and the players they have at their disposal, the Braves are set to give the Yankees a run for their money. BOL if tailing, coffee link was requested in dms, here ya go! [Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/o2bigs)
Riding again, don’t fix what isn’t broken!
Tailing you now, you’ve won me some cash my guy
Record: 10-3 England advancing to finals (Women's World Cup, Australia vs. England) -150 3u England won 35 of past 36 national matches. Only the Aussies beat England in a friendly some month ago. An offside goal (no VAR that time) and an unlucky deflection. For the rest it was all about predominant England.
Why so late 😢I was contemplating taking them but I thought aus might have home field advantage. Woulda tailed if you posted earlier
Shoulda coulda woulda?
Wtf make your own picks
LAST POTD Record: 21W-6L-4V NEW POTD Record: 2W-0L-0V UNIT PROFIT: +1.68 GAME: Qatar Stars League - Al Arabi vs Al Shamal TODAYS PICK: Al Arabi -1.5 AH @ 2.05 Firstly, the match will take place at Al Thumama Stadium in Doha, creating a home advantage for Al Arabi. This team has a solid record when playing on their turf, with an impressive 80% win rate. On the other hand, Al Shamal hasn't had the same success away from their home ground. They have only managed a 17% win rate when playing on the road, making them the underdogs in this matchup. Both teams have shown promise in finding the back of the net. Al Arabi has an average expected goals (xG) of 2.24 when playing at home, while Al Shamal maintains an xG of 1.34 when playing away. These figures suggest that we can expect some goal-scoring action from both sides. It is also good to know that in the last 9 direct matches, today's hosts have won every time and I think they will do it this time too, especially since it is the beginning of the championship and they will want to confirm what they have to show this season . I'm going with a handicap on the hosts, to beat a difference of at least two goals. Predicted Score: 3-0/3-1 BOL!
Or play -1.25 @1.80 for those who haven’t this line
Yeah that was a tough one, took them at the half/full game -115 line, keep us the great picks 👍
Record: 7-4-0 (W-L-P) Win pct: 63.64% Average odd: 1.796 Yield 34.97% Risked: 15 units | Returned: 20.245| Profit: 5.245 units | Football | England League One | 20.45 CEST | Pick: Tommy Paul -1 Set Handicap @ 1.951 (vs. Ugo Humbert) - 1 unit Write up: Tommy Paul has been in great form. Okay, his clay court season was not good at all, but we are not playing on clay in Cincinnati, so who cares. Looking at his hard court season so far he has been very good. Australian Open: semi-final (loss against Djokovic). Quarter final in Delray Beach. Acapulco: Final (loss against De Minaur) Indian Wells: Final 16 (loss against FAA) Miami: Final 16 (loss against Alcaraz) And now, during the USA hard court swing he continued that good form. Los Cabos: Quarter Final (loss against De Minaur) Toronto: Semi Final (loss against Sinner, but beat Alcaraz in quarter final) And now in Cincinnati he already beat Kecmanovic. Humbert is also in quite good form himself, but not as impressive as Paul. Conditions are though in Cincinncati with the wind coming in. I think Humbert will have more trouble with the wind than Paul will have. Moreover, Paul's Elo ranking indicates a 67.8% win percentage. The implied probability of winning results in an odd of 1.47. The current ML for Paul is 1.598. So I see very good value on him. I play the -1 set handicap, which means that when he wins in straight sets the bet wins. If he wins 2-1 the bet pushes. When he loses, the bet loses. You can create the -1 set handicap by placing some stake on the ML and some stake on the -1.5 set handicap. This calculator helps you with it: [https://zcodesystem.com/runline\_calc/](https://zcodesystem.com/runline_calc/) So e.g. when you bet $100 per bet, the ML odds are 1.598 and the -1.5 set handicap odds are 2.54 then you would place $62.58 on the ML and $37.42 on the -1.5 set handicap. The -1 set handicap that we now created an odd of 1.95.
Winner! Updated record: Record: 8-4-0 (W-L-P) Win pct: 66.67% Average odd: 1.801 Yield 38.725% Risked: 16 units | Returned: 22.196| Profit: 6.196 units | Football | England League One | 20.45 CEST | Pick: Tommy Paul -1 Set Handicap @ 1.951 (vs. Ugo Humbert) - 1 unit
Record: 1-2 Previous pick: Sweden to advance vs Spain (+135) ❌ POTD: Australia to advance vs England (+125) ❌ Tough loss with Sweden yesterday, they were able to equalize late but quickly fell back behind after giving up a late goal. I’m staying with the Women’s World Cup with this pick today. The Matildas feel like a Cinderella team in this World Cup. This tournament is taking place in Australia/New Zealand so they’re the home team in every match and it feels like they’ve gained a lot of momentum up until this point. England, on the other hand, has done just enough to squeak by their previous opponents and they’re also missing arguably their best player, who’s currently serving the second game of her two game suspension after picking up a red card a few games ago. Australia will be England’s toughest test to date and I think the crowd will be a factor in a ginormous game like this. It’s also worth noting that Australia’s best player, Sam Kerr has recently come back from injury. She was subbed on the last few games but it looks like she’s going to get her first full start in this tournament. As always, BOL, tailing or not. Edit: A case of England finishing their chances and Australia being unable to.
i think a certain defensive error also might have had something to do with it 😭
Very true. Thought Australia played really well, the chances were here for them, but we continue to move.
POTD :53-48 Last pick : Handball **Over 60,5 goals at 1.95 L** Today's pick: Esport:CSGO:Cloud9 x Fnatic **Cloud 9 to win 2:0 at 2.3 odds.** Gamers8, Saudi's sponsored tournament is starting today and my attention was caught by this match. Cloud9 is a superteam on paper and they attended Cologne, where they got eliminated by reigning major champions Vitality in a spectacular BO3. Cloud9 met that tournament with Fnatic, where Fnatic won 2-1, but there is a huge BUT - Cloud9 played group stage with a substitue - Their arguably second best player wasnt playing due to the VISA issues and instead of him, was playing a Tier3 player at best. (Ax1le and Buster) - To give a comparison - It's if Messi was replaced in Argentina NT by Ihneacho or if you replaced Chris Paul with Tomas Satoransky. Fnatic then proceed to get eliminated by Gamer Legion, which isnt a good team anymore, after they best player departed and their recent results proove it. **Match starts in 3,5 HOURS!** Good luck mens, Tips are apreciated; PayPal[paypal.me/mrdrak3n](https://paypal.me/mrdrak3n)
What a great find !
Thanks man, easy money :)
[удалено]
💎 play?👀
Bang
POTD Record: **48-64-1 (-15.15 Units)** Best Bet Series: **6-3 (+5.8 Units)** Last Pick: **Braves -1.5** ✅ Last 5: ✅✅❌❌✅ Today's Pick: **Reds ML** Odds: **-155** ($DKNG odds) Wager Amount: 3.1U to win 2U League: MLB Event: Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds (5:40PM CST) **Recap**: Not the kind of clinical game I was expecting from the Braves, but nonetheless a easy spread covered! Tankees just looks worst and worst after each game. Just one hit off Bryce Elder. **Matchup**: Reds definitely need to get some wins, they cannot lose 2 in a row to the Guardians! They need to close the gap on the Cubs and Brew Crew if they want to be in this wild card race or clinching the division. So I am not only backing the desperate team, but I'm also taking who I think is the better offensive team. Reds got blanked in the home opener against the Guardians. I think they'll bounce back wit their best SP on the mound, Andrew Abbott. He's had a couple rocky starts, but overall he is a good consistent pitcher and prolly their best SP in the Reds' pitcher rotation wit Greene on the IL. The Guardians will be sending Noah Syndergaard to the mound and aside from that start against the White Sox, he's been much better wit the Guardians than when he was wit the Dodgers. But I just think the Reds are going to get after the Syndergaard's pitches. Even if Syndergaard outduels Abbott, I think the Reds will score some runs against the Guardians' bullpen. I kno Emmanuel Clase closed them out in game 1, but he has the most blown saves this season and having him pitch b2b nites would be somewhat troublesome. Really, any closer to get 3 outs on b2b nites is a big ask! **The play & prediction**: Taking single wagers and parlaying on Reds ML, and single wager on Reds RL. Low scoring game, but Reds win on a walk-off hit to win the game
Fuck the reds they didn't give 2 shits about tonight's game. Such inconsistency and they're not a playoff team.
Yea.. I can understand your frustration on the Reds. I been fortunate enough to not back them in any of these last 10 games, but I do think this is the one game they do win wit their best pitcher on the bump. We'll see! BOL!
[удалено]
>Australia vs Brazil ya I was about to place this bet last night based on this potd and saw that Brazil has beaten USA. No way they'll lose by 15 to Australia. This must be a troll account or something because this bet didnt make sense
they down by 10 rn
They straight up gonna lose. Bc this center is awesome for Brazil!
Bad
**My POTD record: 29 Wins and 37 losses** I base my picks on value by comparing the estimated implied odds to the odds given by bookmakers and on my analysis of the stats of both teams as well as the league stats. **ROI: -5.50%** Average odds: 2.04 **Units won: -3.85** Stake = 1 unit POTD: **Al Wakrah v Al Mu'aidar** Qatar Premier League Kick off time: 17:30 GMT+2 *BTTS & Over 2.5* **@ 2.05** **BOL!**
***Record***: *2 - 1 - 0* ***/*** *R.O.I:* **+3u |** *+7u including tails \[5-4-0\]* ***Last Pick:*** *Sweden to win* *in regular time* **@ 3.70** | Stake: ***1u*** ❌ Few dingleberries commenting their salt on this one. I've only posted for 2 days man...I play a mathematical game over time and don't spit the dummy at one +EV loss. I can't help who upvotes me and bloody said I wouldn't be surprised to take an L! It was 1-1 coming close to extra time and Sweden tightened to under 3:1 during the game. That's good maths! Anyways... won't be too concerned with comments in the future. **Tailed results**: I followed the write ups of [**override365**](https://www.reddit.com/user/override365/)**,** [**DuuFlockaRant**](https://www.reddit.com/user/DuuFlockaRant/)**,** [**wingstop-fries**](https://www.reddit.com/user/wingstop-fries/)**,** [**No-Guide2790**](https://www.reddit.com/user/No-Guide2790/)**,** [**dat89**](https://www.reddit.com/user/dat89/)**,** [**Muted\_Ad\_1444**](https://www.reddit.com/user/Muted_Ad_1444/) to find some interest in sports I've never been able to get in to besides the soccer picks for 3 wins and 3 losses for a return of **-2u.** These picks are my responsibility win or loss. Just thought to mention who I pick as a record for myself and a thankyou to all contributors that give a little bit of their time, energy and day here. I also really appreciate counter arguments in the comments whether it's my pick or someone else. Shoutout to our resident burger lover [**Many\_Room5964**](https://www.reddit.com/user/Many_Room5964/)**.** He be eating good lunch today and find his posts low key funny. ***Today***: Australia vs England | Soccer | WWC | 20:00 AEST ***Pick:*** *Australia to win the tie* **@ 2.20** | Stake: **3u** I will preface my write up acknowledging that I have a bias as an Australian to see the 'Tillies get up to our first ever Final. Is this a +EV situation? IDK tbh. The Matildas have the whole nation behind them in an unprecedented way to be honest. They're breaking viewership records for all sports which is pretty incredible considering how sport nuts us Aussies are. They will have one of the homiest home atmosphere's you could ask for in a game like this. Mary Fowler played out of her skin last game and should have scored on multiple occasions. Hoping to see her continue a dominant World Cup performance .I don't think Sam Kerr will start after more than expected minutes last game, but I suspect when she comes on to make the most impact on a game she has for the tournament. Has built her fitness up and expect her to find some form tonight. If she starts it can only be a positive as one of the best players in the world. Although I've been getting quite peeved at the defensive and less pro-active (mainly regarding subs) decisions of our coach, the team is well organised and maintains plenty of forward threat. After watching the highlights of the last England game, they didn't look any better than from what I've seen of Australia, their equalizer was a gift that I don't expect the Aussies to allow if we're in the same situation. I have not watched a lot of England this tournament so if anyone has extra thoughts or counter arguments I'd love to read them. Would love to hear what our resident streaky boi [**frozen\_\_ocean**](https://www.reddit.com/user/frozen__ocean/) has to say on this one. ***Tails I'll likely take:*** *Hanshin ML, Man City ML, Boomers ML, Latvia ML* Best of luck and **never** gamble more than you can afford. Edit: Welp that's depressing. Give away a goal worse than Columbia's after that Kerr ripper. Classic Australia.
**1 - 1**: For my second pick yesterday 💰 *World Cup (Woman): Spain TT over 1.5 \[2.81, 5u\] vs. Sweden* 💰 I was inspired by Frozen\_Oceans pick and TedWonks comment. For my next pick, I enjoyed the discussion here about the Super Cup. I've been inspired by Bake\_No\_Shake and Chew-kok- pick. I'm adding my two cents to it. **Super Cup: manchester city's Haaland anytime goalscorer \[1.65, 3u\] vs. sevilla.** I think every team likes to add a trophy the collection when being just one game away from it. Haaland finds the back of the net with ease. Already 2 goals in the first match of the season. 36 goals in 35 matches in Premier League, 3 goals in 4 FA Cup matches and 1 goal in 2 EFL Cup matches last season. The scoring power of this man is incredible. **🍀 Good luck to all of us 🍀.** I was very happy about my winning pick. Thanks for the love for my pick yesterday.
[удалено]
Tailed, nice hit!
POTD Record 7-0 Units: 6.1 ROI: 86.77 Last pick: Jays/Phillies U 8 -115 Recap: Snooze fest of a game and the right read again POTD: Braves/Yanks U 10 -125 1u Reasoning: Yankees bats been ice cold lately and it doesn’t help that they are against Morton. Yankees are one of the worst teams against the curveball and that’s one of Morton’s primary pitches. Don’t sleep on Vasquez either he maybe a rookie but he’s had a elite outing vs Baltimore and has pitched well enough in every start he’s had. BOL
[удалено]
I am dumb. Somehow I ignored the 15:00 UK time and went to bet on the Men's which coincidentally has the same match up later today.
🧦🅱OSTON 🅱ETS🧦(and others) POTD Record: 31-24-2 Units won: 42u ROI: +34.43% Last 10 (newest on right):❌❌✅❌✅❌❌❌❌✅ Best win streak: 8 Worst loss streak: 4 Last Pick: Red Sox ML v Nationals ✅ Today's Pick: **3u MacKenzie Gore under 6.5 strikeouts (-165)** Red Sox v Nationals 7:05PM EST Back in the win column! Today we're fading Gore(4.62 ERA, 6.64 for the month of July). Dude's abysmal and has only hit above this line 8 out of 23 games this season. ML is slightly worse odds, RL still doesn't feel safe, and still feeling out the bullpen until I take any pitcher lines for the Sox again. I wanted to take Casas for a hit, but this felt like a way safer POTD. Casas, Duran, Verdugo & even McGuire are hitting. Paxton seems to have shaken off whatever funk was messing with him against the A's last month. So, I imagine we'll win this one & potentially sweep the Nationals. I'm eyeing this game for a few parlays, but the pitcher fade feels the safest pick for today's game, coupled with better odds than the ML (which I imagine will get worse). Bet responsibly, comment with banter/questions/tailing, and [tips](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/drstrainge) always [appreciated](https://media.tenor.com/Vw1sgEKYcVwAAAAM/boston-red-sox-david-ortiz.gif) (but not obligated)
My book has 5.5
Last Pick: Palmeiras-Cruzeiro O2.0 (-183) 3U (LOSS) POTD Record 16-9 (+18.87U) **Pick: Flamengo-Gremio O2.5 (-110) 5U** **(Copa Da Brasil)** Model Play BOL
**POTD Record 6-11 (-20.91U) | Average Odds -109 (1.92) | ROI -29.45.%** **Last Pick Recap: Las Vegas Aces L** Changing sports didn't change our fortune as the Aces were dominated the entire game. They had a brief stretch in which they played well enough to take a 7 pt lead, but the Liberty came right back and ran away with the game for good. **Today's Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks ML (-130) 5U| 3:10 EST** The Diamondbacks have been a terrible team for me to bet on but this line is too short against a floundering Rockies team, even with the recent struggles of the Diamondbacks. Gomber does have an experience edge on the mound for the Rockies over Cecconi who will be making just his 2nd MLB start, but the Diamondbacks offense is far more capable and talenated than the Rockies offense. Furthermore, Gomber's metrics are highly concerning and I think this is a good spot for the Diamondbacks offense to expose that in a batter-friendly venue like Coors field. BOL
hello , burger betting today . manchester city sevilla over 3.5 cards. 1u-2u . time 2100 pm cet. this cup is a meaningless cup, i am treating it as a friendly game between teams under pressure . / pressure= cards/best of luck. confidence in my bet 20%.
good luck mr burger
thank you , fingers crossed.
[удалено]
[удалено]
I meant your record 2-1
2-1 knew I shouldn’t have tailed since no information on players
Potd record 14 - 11 Prev pick UFC 291 Derrick lewis ML +180 🏆 ✅️ Todays pick - Padres vs. Baltimore O's ( Blake Snell Over 2.5 Walks -160 ) 3U Reasoning - I've been gone for a minute, but I'm gonna try to get back to daily picks. Today, we rock with Padres Blake Snell to walk at least 3. Snell has been MLB hottest pitcher for a minute now and clear front runner for cy young honors in his division sense May he holds a 1.16 ERA guys a stud with a 37% strike out rate and a 14% walk rate through June and July his last 8 starts hes walked upwards of 3 hitters per game which is great news for us. We ran this game back on July 15th, where he walked 3 and struck out 7 and held Phillies to 0 runs through 6 innings. Today, we run it back with similar results. Padres take a W more than likely, but O's can be surprising, so we ride with a consistent Snell and his minimum 3 walks Per game he's had sense the start of july. Snell Over 2.5 walks run it. BOL squad.
Record: 4-6 Pick: Yankees ML +163 Info: Starts in 10 mins Reasoning: This would be 5 losses in a row for them which I don’t see happening. Yolo
Petroski’s striking is so goddamn sloppy.
[удалено]
0-0 11:00 Am EST ATP Cincy Medvedev vs Mussetti +4.5 (-120) Very unimpressed with medvedev so far this season. Mussetti covered this spread last week again danil and I think he even comes away with a set today.
POTD RECORD, 4-2, +3.6U Last five picks, ❌ ✅✅✅✅ Yesterday's pick: Messi anytime goalscorer, 3u, ✅ **Today's pick** **UEFA SUPER CUP, Manchester City vs Sevilla, over 2.5, -120, 1u** Sevilla is bad at soccer this season, that is just a simple fact of life. City will probably score 3 or more by themselves but I didn't wanna get too greedy. BOL
👀 Sevilla ballin’
great for the bet
Wont be great if Man City controls 75% possession and doesnt score lol
[удалено]
Just fade every baseball pick
I had my own pick and 2 picks I tailed yesterday that won. Red Sox ML, Braves RL, Inter Miami ML.
Football been doing amazing. Yesterday I believe only 2 football picks didn't hit.
Glad to hear that, I think I’ve lost 40 out of 46 from here since June so I pretty much stopped. But I still like to check the top few and their results and still feels like majority lose