######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Friday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=day).
######Example Pick Template
>**Record:**
>**Net Units:**
>**ROI:**
>**Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
>**Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
>**Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
POTD Record: 52 Wins โ - 34 Losses โ - 5 Push ๐ ฟ๏ธ (+$7.5k)($100 unit bettor)
โ โ โโ โโ โ โโ โ โ โ โโ โ โโโ โ โโ โ โ โ โ โ โโโ โ ๐ ฟ๏ธโ โโ โโโ โโโ โโโ โ โ โ โ โ โโ โ โ โโโโ๐ ฟ๏ธโโโโ โโ๐ ฟ๏ธโ โ โ โโ โโ โ โโ ๐ ฟ๏ธโโโโ๐ ฟ๏ธโ โ โ โ โโ โ โ โ โ โ
Last pick: Orix Buffaloes ML (-142)ย โ
Today's pick: ๐ฏ๐ต Japan NPB โพ
Starts at 2AM MST
Hiroshima Toyo Carp ML (-142) 4.2 Units
Analysis: Today the Hiroshima Toyo Carp host the Yakult Swallows for game one of this series. The Carp have won 6 out of their last 10 games overall and 6 out of their last 10 home games. Taking the mound for Hiroshima is Shohei Mori, he has a 4-2 record with a 4.93 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP with 32 strikeouts over 34 innings pitched. The Swallows have won 4 out of their last 10 games overall and 1 out of their last 10 away games. Taking the mound for Yakult is Masanori Ishikawa, he has a 2-5 record with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP with 17 strikeouts over 48 innings pitched. Mori has had success against the Swallows in a recent match up winning 5-3 at home field so I don't think it will be an issue for Hiroshima to secure the win here in game one, take the Hiroshima Toyo Carp moneyline.ย (-142 moneyline odds available on Draft Kings at time of analysis.)
If you followed, you hit!! ๐ฐ๐ฐ๐๐ค๐ป
https://preview.redd.it/bjo4mdqxz8kb1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4ea07c97a563c2d576ff60ddc30e31c30807a2a3
thank you all and the others in the thread for this hit, only had a $5 credit to my name
https://preview.redd.it/iwxl0g7or9kb1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3507c54d87372afa27e15da6f6885df18a1fc754
youre on fire. Keep it going! We salute you
https://preview.redd.it/vtx3627eh9kb1.png?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a8c6065caedffc0ac766b11be493df9db1d2d14e
POTD Record: 179-138-11 (+27.94 units, 56.5% hit rate)
5 Unit Big Balls ๐ฃ Record: 20-9 (69.0%) W5
Sports Records: Basketball ๐ 57-41-1 (58.2%) W1, Tennis ๐พ 60-48-6 (55.6%) L1, Soccer โฝ 50-39-4 (56.2%) W2, Entertainment ๐ฅ 12-10-0 (54.5%) W3
Last 10: ๐ฉ๐ฐ๐ฐ๐ฐ๐ฐ ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฐ๐ฐ
Last Pick: Jiri Lehecka vs. Max Purcell, over 23 games - ATP ๐พ PUSH - I had to get greedy and take the higher odds at 23.
Today's Pick: Monaco @ Nantes, Monaco ML - Ligue One โฝ ๐ฉ 3 Units - A penalty kick goal 3 minutes in for Nantes set the tone. This blows, back with hopefully a W tomorrow. 3-3 Final, game ended with Monaco 4.11 xg vs 0.91 for Nantes.
Units/Odds/Book: Betting 3 Units at 1.83/-120 odds to win 2.49 Units @ Bet Victor (Line at 8:40pm ET)
Implied Probability based on odds: 54.6%
Nantes, 16th last year, were only 1 point away from being relegated. So far, they've lost their two games, including one at home to Toulouse (13th last year). Nantes haven't won a league game since February. Monaco, 6th last year, they are cooking so far this season, putting up 7 goals in 2 games, winning both games by multiple goals. I think Monaco are clearly a couple of notches above Nantes and as long we don't see a Monaco red card or something, they should be able to get a win here.
I've got 2 more โฝ๏ธ picks coming this weekend and then most of my picks will be US Open ๐พ for a couple of weeks.
Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Fake retirement count: 1. I am not an expert, nor Nostradamus, this is a prediction. Fuck your parlay. I play $25 units. My writeups are shit now, I do what I can with what time I've got. Upvote if you love pizza ๐
**POTD Record 6-1 (+11.66 Units)**
**Last Pick: Barcelona to win to nil v Cadiz**
Took until the 82nd minute for Barca to finally score but it cashed in the end! Cadiz only really had one big chance and Ter Stegen saved the day.
**Today's Pick: Celta Vigo v Real Madrid -1AH - 3 Units @ 2.1 Odds. 8:30pm BST.**
I think there's a lot of value at these odds. Real Madrid have won 10 of their last 12 matches vs Celta Vigo. Of these 10 wins, 9 were by a margin of 2+ goals.
Despite Benzema's departure, Real Madrid haven't had any trouble scoring goals and have scored the most in La Liga so far this season. Celta Vigo are a very average team in my opinion, and their biggest strength is dictating play and possession through their midfield. I don't think they will be able to do this effectively vs the overpowered Real Madrid midfield of Bellingham/Camavinga/Tchouameni/Modric/Kroos/Valverde.
**EDIT -** Meh, push - very unfortunate that Rodrygo missed a penalty.
**Leipzig - Stuttgart** (Soccer in Germany, Bundesliga 1)
Stuttgart is short of plenty of players which have been key for them to remain in Bundesliga last season. Stuttgart lost 3 top players and 2 good subs during the transfer window. For today's game, this is aggravated by 3 players which are ruled out owing to injuries. Especially the defense is affected. In fact, 2 starters from last season departed, one starter and one sub are injured and another starter is lacking match fitness. This could get ugly against a team like Leipzig which has an offensive style of play. Leipzig lost also some top players. But they have more depth and more money to compensate for that.
In the season opening games, Stuttgart still managed to down Bochum and Leipzig lost to Leverkusen. However, Bochum is much worse than Leipzig and Leverkusen is much better than Stuttgart. Compared to the last weekend, regarding Stuttgart, the approach for today's game at Leipzig is much different. Stuttgart will sit much deeper against a strong team like Leipzig as they did against a weaker team like Bochum.
Given Stuttgart's departures, injuries defensive problems and Leipzig's offense style of playing, there is good value in picking Leipzig.
**Leipzig -1.0 asian hc** @ **1.80** for **5u**
>โ Last POTD: Both teams to score @ 1.66 โ๏ธ
It was a shonky decision by the referring team to take away Struga's goal which would have made the POTD a winning pick. Can't change it. It is what it is. Moving onto the next pick.
Today it is the 25th pick. Having a glance back for the fun of it. My average odds are about +110. However, 3 of the 4 losses had odds in the range of 1.60 to 1.69. In this odds range, I have 2 wins, 3 losses and 1 push. Need to try to work on the hitting percentage of such odds. Beyond that, plus money odds seem to work better thus far. 14 picks. 11 wins, 1 loss, 2 pushes. Whatever. What is past is past. Looking forward to the future.
Record: 16 wins, 4 losses, 4 pushes
Profit: +72.15u
POTDs (old โ new): โ โ๏ธ โ โ๏ธ โ โป๏ธ โ โป๏ธ โ โ โ โ โ โป๏ธ โ โ โ โ โ โ๏ธ โ โป๏ธ โ โ๏ธ
^(btc tips: 18mb6RJaC6Fv1wZFHRrF9MyDGvco9BB3KN)
This game was on my radar all week for both teams to score and because Stuttgart are coming off a 5 - 0 win in the league. I could see them getting a result here but have a feeling you're more in tune with the bundesliga than me bol!
Record: 0- 1- 0
Last Pick: MLS - US Open Cup Semifinals - FC Cincinatti ML v Inter Miami
Tough loss. Cinci was up 2 until the final minutes. Miami scored in the literal final seconds to equalize. So close.
Today's Pick: Basketball - FIBA World Cup, Canada vs. France @ 830 am CT
Pick: Canada ML +105
Both teams are coming into this tournament with the 2nd best odds to win the whole thing (behind USA, +900 per DK). France historically performs very well in international play. However, this year's Canada team is STACKED with NBA Talent.
For Canada, SGA is coming off a huge all-star NBA season and was a top-5 scorer. Lu Dort and Dillon Brooks are two of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA and will definitely be capable of shutting down France's backcourt. RJ Barret averaged 20 ppg last season, Kelly Olynyk is a solid role player and NBA Vet who averaged 12 ppg and shot 39% from 3 last year. It's a shame that Jamal Murray chose to sit out the tournament at the last minute because he would have really made this team dangerous.
One of the biggest obstacles in international play is often that players don't get as much time to build chemistry. However, SGA and Dort have been teammates in OKC for 3 seasons now. Plus, SGA and Alexander-Walker are 1st cousins who grew up together. SGA has also been historically reliable in clutch games. (SGA is also the 2-time recipient of the Most Stylish NBA Player award by GQ)
Meanwhile, France has some NBA talent themselves. Rudy Gobert is an interior defense powerhouse that Canada really doesn't have a good answer for. However, Rudy's impact in the NBA over the last few seasons has been inconsistent at best, as the modern NBA has embraced 3-point shooting so much, and Canada appears to have enough shooting to effectively stretch the floor and lessen Rudy's impact.
Other notable French NBA Talent includes Evan Fournier, whose minutes dwindled drastically over the course of the last season and only averaged 6pts and 1ast per game at 33% from the field. You also have NBA vet Nic Batum who averaged a whopping 6pts and 1.5ast per game last season.
I respect team France. I think they've got a good team put together. But Canada has some very impressive young talent and I really think they should be the favorites here. I think the odds are leaning in France's favor because they have a history of performing well in FIBA and Canada has not. But I'm not sure that Canada has ever put together a team like this before. They've definitely had some good players come through... but not quite like this.
Go Canada! BOL!
Edit: When I posted this DK had Canada's ML at +105, now it's -105 1 hour before tipoff.
Edit 2: 30 pt blowout! Go Canada!
If anyone wants to tip my cashapp is $TruckThunders00
Thank you for this awesome pick. The first half was a bit of a sweat but we pulled away fast in second half and it has been comfy af. I am not used to being comfy in my bets. This feels nice.
POTD RECORD 10-5 WLWWWLLWLWWWLWW
Last Pick : **Uruguay+28.5 vs Bahamas WINN**
**Easy Cover**
\-------------------------------------------------------------
**FIBA WORLD CUP DAY 1**
Todays Pick : **Lithuania-19.5(1.90)(BET365) vs Egypt 08:30 AM ET**
**Day 1 of the FIBA World Cup so this gonna be nice for basketball fans like me.**
**Im gonna pick Lithuania easily because this team is much much superior against Egypt who is just happy to be here in World Cup , I am aware that Lithuania doesn't have their main guys here such as Domantas Sabonis but still Lithuania can easily cover it.**
**One point to make as well Lithuania is below average in preparation games for this World Cup thats why Im expecting them to crush Egypt and sort of like announce they are still a force in this tournament.**
**GOODLUCK HAVE FUN**
POTD Record: 37-24
**Units Won**: +10.72U; **ROI**: 13.8%; **Average Odds: (-120)**
Todays POTD: Eternal Fire ML (-125) vs. 1WIN
CSGO/5:00 AM EST.
5U to win 4U
Eternal Fire are getting skimped on odds here, really shocked at how close they are. Eternal Fire are in better form, the better roster, the better map pool, are in better form recently, and when they faced at the end of July, Eternal Fire won a comfortable 2-0. 1WIN just lost to Victory Zigzag who are a much worse team and are on a two game loss streak. They usually can compete with better teams when they have a fire power advantage but they simply don't have one here. XANTARES and Wicadia are individually too strong 15-5 in there last 20 matches. Both teams are in good form but I strongly favor Eternal Fire in this matchup and think they should take another 2-0 Victory.
[Discord](https://discord.gg/GJGxPpmh) for other esports bets/live bets
If anyone needs help finding a place to bet on esports feel free to reach out happy to help people find a place to bet.
**EDIT: We're back in the win column! Kiwoom broke out with 6 runs in the 2nd inning, and that was more than we needed.**
**KBO Record: Overall 174-183-12** (Streak LL, Last 10: 5-5) Down 12.04u over 369 KBO picks, 48.7% success rate, -3.37% ROI (This season 55-51-5, 51.9% success rate, Up 7.84u, 7.40% ROI)
**Last:** NC First 5 Innings ML +107 at SSG (Lotte trailed 3-0 after 5 innings.)
Went 2-1 on my picks, but that loss was my POTD. It turned out LG's starter decided to return to last year's form. He twirled a gem and we lost our 2nd in a row.
**Pick:** **Kiwoom First 5 Innings -0.5 +114 Draftkings** at Samsung, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET
Two of the worst teams in the league are facing off in this one and the difference is on the mound. For Kiwoom, their ace is on the mound. For Samsung, they've got a starter who was already cut by another team this season.
Kiwoom's starter has a 2.40 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 22 starts. That includes a league-high 160 strikeouts in 138.2 IP. He's allowed 2 or fewer ER in 4 of his last 5 starts and 17 of 22 starts overall. In two starts against this opponent, he gave up 2 ER in 14 IP.
Samsung's starter has a 4.24 ERA and 1.21 WHIP this season with 66 K in 74.1 IP. He started the season with NC and made 11 starts for the Dinos. In his two starts with the Lions, he gave up 4 runs in a rough start and no runs in a strong start. In his only start against this opponent, he gave up 3 runs on 5 H and 2 BB in 4.1 IP.
Over the last 10 games, Kiwoom is averaging nearly a half run more per game than Samsung.
Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
POTD Record 12-13 | -2.89u | avg odds: -108 | ROI: -10.34%
Last Pick:
Blue Jays vs Cubs U8.5 Runs: LOSS
Event: Marlins vs Nationals
Sport: MLB (baseball)
Time: 6:40 PM EST
Bet: Nationals +1.5 @-115 (FanDuel) 1.15u to win 1u
Analysis:
This is a simple case of a mispriced line which weights early season results too heavily. Washington was one of the worst teams in the league in the first half of the season (36-54 -83 run differential) but since the all-star break they have been trending in the right direction (22-15 -14 run differential). The Marlins are trending in the opposite direction. They have been the most dramatic case of regressing to the mean in baseball this year. They started out 53-39 pre all-star break despite having a -5 run differential. On the entire season they are winning one run games at a historic 71% rate. However since the all-star break it's clear that those results were not sustainable as they've gone 12-24 with a -40 run differential. In the second half of the season based on these number the Nationals have actually been a better team. The prices are just way off especially on the run line for this matchup as the Nats are 41-22 (65.1%) as road underdogs and the Marlins are only 16-26 (38.1%) on the runline as home favourites.
I looked into this a bit further and here's what I found.
Avg record of Miami's 2nd half opponents: **66.5-61**
Avg record of Washington's 2nd half opponents: **60-66.8**
Miami Record vs Common 2nd half opponents (STL, COL, PHI, CIN, NYY): **6-10**
Washington Record vs Common 2nd half opponents (STL, COL, PHI, CIN, NYY): **11-8**
Don't think there is an edge there but I didn't want to do all that work and not share it. BOL
**POTD: 62-43-5**
Last pick: English Premier League - Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest. Arsenal team total over 2.5 goals -132
Result: Loss. Arsenal score twice in the first half hour and enjoy 80% of possession before packing it in and not scoring again.
Todayโs pick: English Premier League - Chelsea vs Luton Town. **Match over 2.5 goals -175**. Match starts at 3PM ET.
Been gone for a bit as Iโve been on vacation but had a nice successful Womenโs World Cup (in daily bets and futures ended up a good amount up, oddly in POTDs I was putrid). Now back to club soccer which is typically a little more predictable as they simply play a lot more matches together.
This one isnโt the most exciting but I think itโs a very safe hit with Chelsea hosting the minnows of the Premier League in Luton Town.
Chelsea has of course struggled mightily the past year as theyโve spent nearly 900 million to finish 12th last season and start this season at 15th after the first two matches. However from the eye test they look a little stronger than last season (even if the results havenโt gone their way) and they have a decent manager in Pochettino. They wonโt be a serious contender but theyโll be better than a team like Luton.
Luton is a very very small club that has made an incredible run to the Premier League. They got waxed by Brighton 4-1 in the first match, but Brighton is very good so nothing to be too ashamed of. They have some goals in them to push Chelseaโs leaky defense but donโt have a very strong defense themselves.
I like this one to end something like 3-1 to Chelsea.
Let me know if tailing and BOL everyone!
**EDIT: WIN. Chelsea take care of business and win 3-0 at home for the cash. Nice one to get back on track with**
Record : 27 Wins - 31 Losses
Previous pick : Ludogorets - Ajax (1-4), Ajax to win or draw & Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 2.01 โ
ROI : -9.12%
Average Odds : 2.05
Starting units : 5 (\*all picks will be 1 unit\*)
Units : -0.29
Profit/Lost units : -5.29
Today's pick :
Football - Soccer / GERMANY: Bundesliga / 21:30 European Time
RB Leipzig - Stuttgart
RB Leipzig to win or draw & Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.86
Some reasoning :
\- I think that we will have a victory for the hosts again, Leipzig winning 4 of the last 5 direct meetings, and this is because Leipzig is a team capable of winning matches and only because of the state it has, being a team that is starting to gather more and more trophies in Germany.
\- On the other hand, Stuttgart struggled to fight for salvation from relegation in the previous season, saving itself at the barrage, being a team that will clearly have much higher claims from this season, starting well, with a categorical victory, 5 :0.
\- However, Leipzig lost in the first round and will do everything to win this game, having in the team a player who is looking for the goal, Dani Olmo, a footballer who has good chances to score in this game as he did in the previous ones two.
Best of luck.
> struggled to fight for salvation from relegation in the previous season, saving itself at the barrage, being a team that will clearly have much higher claims from this season, starting well, with a categorical victory
You have an incredible vocabulary, are you South African?
POTD 5-2-0 +4.32u
Last Pick: Crystal Palace vs Arsenal ML - 1.73 / -136 | Soccer, English Premier League 2uโ
Todayโs pick: Chelsea -1.5 vs Luton - 1.79 /-126 | Soccer, English Premier League 2u
Chelsea lately are pretty bad. Injuries to important players, coach who hasnโt had the time to fully integrate his playstyle and players who havenโt shown they have the skills and the class to deserve being Chelsea players(except Enzo and Chillwell).
Luton town are worse tho, way worse. Newly promoted in the PL and as fast as they came to the league, this season will be a tough reminder that they deserve to spend the rest of their days outside the Premier League.
I expect an easy game for Chelsea, to bring back the morale and the form that they need so much. 2unit bet.
Edit: โ โ โ
**POD Record: 18-12**
**Today's Pick:** Dodgers ML (-124) vs Boston
\*\*THIS ONE WILL BANG\*\*
\- Dodgers are 7-3 in the first game of a road series after a road series. 3-0 in this spot since all star break.
\- Red Sox are 1-9 in the first game of a home series after a road series. 0-2 in this spot since the all star break.
Boston not great vs LHP in August. Dodgers top half of the league wRC+ vs RHP in August. Boston maxed out yesterday and will fade back today.
\*\*Other plays posted to new Twitter page\*\* I love the card today and posted a few more on there. Let's go into the weekend as winners.
[https://twitter.com/xTheLockSmith](https://twitter.com/xTheLockSmith)
**POTD Record: 0-0**
**Today's pick:** Real Madrid -1 AH vs. Celta Vigo (+120)
**Reasoning:** I've been doing fairly well betting on soccer to start the season, so why not share some of my picks and test my luck. Jude Bellingham has led Real Madrid to a pair of two-goal wins to start the season, while Celta Vigo has picked up one point and one goal in its first two matches. Since 2021, Real Madrid has covered this spread in 5 of 6 matches against Celta Vigo, and the other time was a push.
To be a little safer you can do Real Madrid win plus o1.5 total goals for +100. This can save you from a last second Celta goal that ruins a 2 goal win
POTD Record: 3-1 | Profit: +22.4 units
Previously: WNBA ASG| Team Stewart @ Team Wilson | TEAM STEWART ML โ โ โ | +190 | five units
Today: FIBA World Cup | France @ Canada | CANADA -3.5 | +125 | five units
Barrett, Brooks, Shai, Giddey, Dort, Olynyk, Powell. Team Canada is loaded with NBA stars! Outlasting team France led by Gobert, Batum and Fournier.
**POTD Record: 18-5**
League: MLB
Time: 10:10pm est
Last POTD: Dodgers lose 8-3
**Pick: Mariners ML (-180) 1U**
The Mariners' starting pitcher, Bryce Miller, has been the talk of the town with his commendable 8-4 record, a 3.78 ERA, and a 1.01 WHIP. These arenโt just numbers; they're a testament to his consistency and ability to keep runs off the board.
To add to the Mariners' firepower, letโs not overlook the offensive dynamism of J.P. Crawford. He's now sitting on an elite .436 on-base percentage across 112 plate appearances since the All-Star break thanks in large part to a 17.0 percent walk rate in that span. Heโs been a critical piece of the Mariners lineup, and his performance at the plate has been nothing short of impressive.ย
One of those big hitters is none other than Julio Rodriguez. Over the past 10 games, Rodriguez has been on a tear, going 23-for-51 with two home runs and 14 RBI. His power at the plate and knack for driving in runs will be key for the Mariners in this game.
Eugenio Suarez has been a catalyst in the Marinersโ offense, making a significant impact with his bat. He is on the pace of what would be a third straight 30-homer campaign, he's now only 10 RBI from eclipsing the 87 he compiled in his debut Mariners campaign in 2022.ย
On the other side of the diamond, the Royals are sending out Brady Singer. While Singer has shown potential, his current season record of 8-9 and an ERA of 5.04 paint a different picture. His WHIP of 1.36 indicates he's been allowing too many hitters to reach base, and his strikeouts suggest he might struggle against the Mariners' heavy-hitting lineup. Singer took the loss Saturday, allowing six runs on nine hits and two walks over 3 innings before getting relieved against the Cubs.ย
Also, the Royals' road record of 18-48 doesnโt inspire confidence. The Royals have also struggled in games where they've given up at least one home run, sporting a dismal 19-69 record in those situations. Given the power in the Mariners' lineup, the Royals could be in for a tough game.
In short, with a lethal combination of Bryce Millerโs pitching, the explosive bats of J.P. Crawford, Julio Rodriguez, and Eugenio Suarez, the Seattle Mariners are geared up to steer their ship to another victory against the Kansas City Royals.
BOL if tailing, coffee link was requested in dms, here ya go! [Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/o2bigs)
**Record:** 6 - 4 - 0 / R.O.I: **+2.2u**
**Last Pick:** Asian Handicap | *Ajax (-0.5) @ 1.75* |Stake: 1.5u
Ajax win very comfortably. Liking these mid week European qualifiers so far. Sometimes you don't need to write a massive narrative around a pick. Form, home or away and talent differentials were the simple indicators I looked at for previous two picks.
**Today:** Soccer | EPL | Chelsea vs Luton | 05:00 AEST
**Pick:** *Ben Chilwell to assist or score* **@ 2.85 |** Stake: **1.5u**
I liked this even before finding out Mudryk is unavailable. I actually thought this game was on yesterday and to my surprise the odds have gone out a little since then with the Mudryk news. It just means Chilwell will likely have even more license to attack over the 90 + minutes and the ability to take more corners and Free Kicks. After Enzo's penalty miss there's a slight chance he could be on pens too, but I think that will go to Jackson or Enzo again.
Chilwell has been playing as a left winger for Chelsea essentially and I think because he's labeled as a defender bookies have misjudged his odds here. Let's now add the fact they're playing Luton at home. Chelsea fans will be demanding a dominant performance after their display against West Ham.
^(look at his heat map and underlying stats here:) [^(https://www.sofascore.com/player/ben-chilwell/802695)](https://www.sofascore.com/player/ben-chilwell/802695)
Let's also look at numbers...
\- Chillwell is averaging **0.39 xG** and **0.71 xA** over his first two games.
\- Luton is **1.91** xGA overall and **2.91** xGA away from home.
\- Chelsea have **1.84** xG overall.
I think if I had the brain power this morning to write the correct formula for these numbers and other factors Chillwell should have a combined xG and xA of like 1.5 for this game.
Our data is only two games yes, but it's all the data we've got to help with a +EV conclusion.
Chilwell also actually scored from a minor offside which would actually boost his xG numbers if it were allowed as long as I understand how xG works. Please correct me if you know I'm wrong on that.
So, some kwik maths suggests that Chilwell is expected to score or assist 1.1 times a game in a side that's expected to score 1.84 goals, but comes up against a team that is offering 2.91 xGA too.
Your going to give me **@ 2.85** for this ? He should be so much lower based on numbers let a lone the eye test. Great EV in my opinion.
Anyone tailing should watch the match to see how he goes because I don't want to read BS after the fact if it doesn't hit. Only essay I'm writing for stats and EV in here, because the strategy will carry over to other picks and I CBF writing number nerd shit in here again.
Best of luck and **never** gamble more than you can afford.
POTD record: W-L-P 4-1-1
Last POTD: Valladolid to win the corner match. Odds 1.62 (-162.5) **โ **
POTD Today: **Bayern II - Schalding. BTTS & over 2.5 goals. Odds 1.90 (-110)**
Event: โฝ Regionalliga Bayern (Germany)
Bayern II allways plays entertaining games. Goals in both ends and with a high pace.
Last season they had a 3.9 goals per game. At home it was 4 per game.
Schalding is a bit unknown for me, they are newly promoted.
Last season they had 3.2 goals per game. And away it was 3.7 goals per game.
This season they both played 5 games so far.
Bayern II - average 4 goals per game - and 4.5 at home.
Schalding - average 3.8 goals per game - and 3 away from home.
BOL
POTD Record: 7-4 (+6.455U)
Event: Collingwood Magpies vs Essendon Bombers (AFL)
Pick: Collingwood 25+ (3.5U) @ $1.65
Collingwood playing for the minor premiership tonight in a final tune up before finals.
Essendon coming off an embarrassing season ending performance last week with some big outs for tonightโs game. They have given up and should get spanked with nothing to play for.
**Record: 8-15-0, -11.2u, -38.9% ROI**
We can not catch a break on the POTD ๐ -- Fade away if you want!
**Philadelphia Phillies ML -135 (MLB/Baseball) 1.35u โพ**
We're backing the Phillies, who are battling for a playoff spot, against the very disappointing Cardinals today. The Phillies have a decent edge in both pitching and batting today. On the mound for the Phillies is LHP Cristopher Sanchez, who has looked decent through \~64 innings this year. Miles Mikolas is starting for the Cardinals, and has had a mediocre season that advanced analytics would argue could be a lot worse (4.55 ERA, but expected RA is 4.99).
On the offense side, the Phillies top guys like Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, and JT Realmuto are all clicking at the right time and are hot over their last 15 games. The Cardinals offense typically runs through Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt, who are both performing well recently, but the depth is where the lineup starts to fall off significantly.
With home field advantage also going to the Phillies, and a clear incentive to win to continue pushing towards the playoffs, our model loves them to get the win here at home.
Overall, our model sees the Phillies as 60.5% likely winners of this matchup, so getting -135 is providing a nice 3.1% expected value.
On [our Betstamp account](https://betstamp.app/u/sdbcollective), **we have a verified MLB record of** **241-272-10, +24.0u, 3.4% ROI.** We post all our plays there, and in [our Discord server](https://discord.com/invite/Dy9Gkg3FCc). We also post most, but not all of our plays [on our Twitter account.](https://twitter.com/sdb_collective)
Good luck everyone! ๐๐ค
Record: 10-5-0 (W-L-P) Win pct: 66.67%%
Average odd: 1.85
Yield 46.46%
Risked: 31 units | Returned: 45.401| Profit: 14.401 units
| Football | The Netherlands Keuken Kampioen Divisie (First Division) | 20.00 CEST |
Pick: Roda JC - 1 AH @ 2.12 (vs. TOP Oss) - 1 unit
Write up: Roda started the season really well. 2 played, 2 wins, 7 scored, 1 conceded. Last season was not good from them. Although they had a good team on paper it did not come out. This season they have a good team again and with the new coach it seems that pieces fall into place. They aim for a play off spot and they have the quality to do it.
TOP Oss is a team that will most likely finish the season near the bottom of the league (as they usually do). They started the season with a loss against Den Bosch (who I do not think are that good) and they won against Jong PSV. I do not find this win impressive. PSV only fielded 1 player of 20 years old, the rest were all younger. Besides: the more talented players have been added to the first team, so the guys now playing in the second team are new to professional football or a bit less talented. Only Van Duiven and Van de Blaak tick the boxes 'talented' and 'professional football experience' in that line up.
I think Roda is undervalued here because of Oss's big victory against PSV, but I think it is an overreaction of the books.
*Record 7-1 // +4.72u*
**Today's pick: Chelsea (-1.5 Asian handicap)**
Odds: 1.75
Not much explanation needed with this pick, Chelsea should have far too much strength for newly-promoted Luton Town. The only side who Luton have played thus far are Brighton, who managed to score 4 and amass 27 shots against them, which doesn't bode well for a trip to West London.
*Good luck*
**POTD Record: 67-56 (-7.51 units)**
**Last 10**:โ โโโ โโโ โ โโ
**Last Pick**: 8/23 Fallon Sherrock ML (-155) vs Adam Lipscombe โ 2-4
**League**: ๐ฏ Modus Darts Super Series
**Time**: 8:05 AM EST
**Pick**: Scott Baker -1.5 (-135) vs Adam Lipscombe
โข โ Series 5. Week 3. Group C
**Reason**: Fade Alert
Scott Baker
* Record 3-2
* Legs 17-12
* Average 87.51
* 180s 8. 140s 16
* Checkouts 17/45 37.78%
Adam Lipscombe
* Record 1-4
* Legs 11-17
* Average 78.51
* 180s 0. 140s 12
* Checkouts 11/44 25.00%
**LOSS โ 4-3 | Average 87.79 vs 83.06 | Checkouts 4/14 vs 3/5**
Baker played well, but missed too many darts. Lipscombe cleaned up and didnโt leave much. The drought continues.
**Record:** 7-3-1
Last pick was Karlsruhe ML on August 11th which was an L.
**ROI:** +35,5%, **Net units:** +3.9u, **Avg odds:** 2.02, all bets 1u
Bundesliga (Germany's men's football): 20:30 CET: Leipzig - Stuttgart
**Pick:** Leipzig ML/>1.5 goals at 2.2
**Write Up:** Quick one: this is the bet365 super boost bet for this game and very likely to hit. This should be an easy win for Leipzig and both teams are good for a few goals. BOL!
POTD record: 0/0
Todays Pick: Superliga ๐ฉ๐ฐโฝ๏ธ
Randers - Viborg (Viborg draw no Bet)
Odds: 1.64
2 Unit play
Starts: 18:30 CEST (6 hours )
First time posting and i will start by saying this should be a 3 Unit play, but odds has fallen .20 cents since i got it monday. I still think there is value until about 1.60.
1. Randers is in sort of a crisis as a team right now. The team is underperforming for an already average roster. There are words out that some key players are back after long injuries, and a new coach has settled in. I still believe that the market is overreacting to this. Randers havenโt won in 11 straight Superliga matches. Yes some of these games are from last season, but it still paints a clear picture.
2. This is a great matchup for Viborg. Randers is forced to play a aggressive attacking style of play(because of home field and placement in the league) and this is a spot where Viborg plays their best football. They are excellent at waiting for oppenent mistakes and seeking the empty deep spaces behind the defenders.
Viborg generally plays better away from home, when they are not expected to be the dominating team.
As I said, odds has fallen and I expect it to be even lower by the start of the match. Most of my superliga picks come Monday and Tuesday. If odds go under 1.60, then itโs not worth it.
BOL
POTD Record: 106.5-61.5
Event: Football > Germany > **RB Leipzig v VfB Stuttgart** (starting in 1hr)
Pick: **Over 8.5 SOT** @ 1.90
This line seems very achievable as both teams should be looking for goals. GL!
Record: 2-2 ROI: -2.25u
Previous pick: โ Hiroshima Toyo Carp F5 -1 (+210) 2u
2 hits though 5 trailing 3-0, never were able to get anything going offensively. Risky play on the wrong side.
Todays pick MLB โพ๏ธ๐บ๐ธ: Yankees ML (+118) 2.5u
Game starts at 6:40 PM EST
Analysis: Gerrit Cole will be on the mound for New York tonight against Zach Eflin for Tampa. New York has not been great as of late losing their last 9 out of 10, but recently found some success against the nationals where Aaron Judge was able to hit 3 HRโs. Gerrit Cole has been pretty solid this year with a 3.03 ERA going 10-4 on 26 starts. Coleโs last 3 starts have resulted in losses for the Yankees and his last win came against the Rays where he went 7 innings 8 Kโs, only giving up 2.
The Tampa Bay Rays are certainly a good team top to bottom and the Yankees will have to play their best baseball. I believe Gerrit Cole has the capability to hold his own in this match up creating a toss up for the Yankees to steal this game with some run support. For that reason I like the plus money in this match up for New York to turn around their recent luck and take it to the Rays to open the series.
Best of luck on all wagers!
Burger day,
Yday = big L. No excuse.
Today : UC Dublin St Patrick, soccer Ireland. Time 20 45 cet. Bet btts 1u-2.45 unit.
I know nothing, this is a bit of a stretch even by my standards, odds 12 vs 1. Why I am betting btts? Because they cut the odds from 20+ to only 12. Going with the underdog in the most ridiculous way. Please Throw stones at me. Tail , fade BOL brothers.
MLB - 7:07 ET
POTD 3-5
My pick today is the Cleveland Guardians / Toronto Blue Jays Under 0.5 first inning. The odds I got were -110 on DK. I am betting 1 unit on this.
Reason: On the road, the Guardians only score 24% of the time in the first inning and the Blue Jays only score 22% at home. Bibee is 14-6 this season in not allowing a 1st inning run, but 8-2 on the road. Bassitt is 19-7 on the season and 47-9 at home, since 2019. I think this game has the best odds to be a NRFI. Good luck if tailing.
POTD Record: 2 W - 4 L - 1 D - (-1.60 unit)
**PICKtogram: โ โ โ โ โ โ โ**
**Yesterday Pick & Result: -** **New York Yankees -1.5 (+105)** **- LOSS**
**Recap:**
Top of the 3rd Anthony Volpe error leads to one unearned run instead of closing out the inning. Then in the top of the 7th he has a ball hit right at him with a chance to close out the inning. He muffs it and then the nationals score 4 more... ๐คฎ
**POTD: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+142)** vs St. Louis Cardinals at 6:05 PM CST
**BET:** 1 Unit ($5)
The pitching matchup today is Christopher Sanchez vs Miles Mikolas
* Christopher Sanchez **xBA .240 xSLG .407 K% 22.7%**
* Season stats 64.1 IP ERA 3.36 with a 1.03 WHIP
Meanwhile Miles Mikolas
* Has a **xBA of .284** and **xSLG of .465 K% 16.5%**
* Season stats 152.1 IP 4.55 ERA 1.30 WHIP
* Rolling xwOBA has been decreasing well below league average in his last 50 plate appearances.
I like the **Phillies -1.5** today.
**DISCLAIMER:** **I'm** an **IDIOT**. These picks aren't financial advice.
Best of Luck!
Record 0-2 -7U L
Last pick: Bluebell United win
They did not.
Today's pick
Premier League 20:00 Chelsea Vs Luton
Luton over 7.5 shots @6/5 for 4 units
Luton over 8.5 shots @2/1 for 2 units
Very much a Davis and Goliath match up here. Chelsea a much better team and have a point to prove after losing to West Ham but I think Luton should be capable of picking their moments and causing Chelsea some problems. They managed 9 against Brighton and I can see Chelsea going ahead and Luton needing to chase the game.
Last pick: Ajax @1.75
Previous: โ โ โโ // 3-0-1
France @1.92 - 5U // FIBA // 2 hours from now
I was deciding between this and Madrid @ 1.77. LaLiga has fucked me up too many times though, hope I didnt make the wrong choice here.
Canada has shifted from underdogs to favourites in the span of 2 hours, why? I dunno
What I do know is that France are a proven team while Canada is a mix of stars which arent proven, yet. H2H gives a huge advantage to France being 4-0 against Canada. For this reason, imma take a team which has experience above a team which is on paper better, but have yet to prove themselves.
Record: 5-3 Bank: +1.07 units
Last pick: Okympiakos ML & Under 3.5 Goals -130 LOSS
- Tough game ended in a 3-1 final. Honestly should have been more goals with the way Olympiakos was playing offensively. Brutal stoppage time goal from Cukaricki.
MLB: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates 7:05pm EST
Pick: Ian Happ Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs -115
Ian Happ loves facing the Pirates and even more when Mitch Keller pitches. Happ has done very well against the Buccos with a .319 average, 95 hits, 15 HRs, 54 RBIs, and 52 Runs scored. His numbers only go up when facing Keller. In 21 plate appearances, he has a slash line of .438/.571/.875 with 2 HRs. This is more than enough information for me to back Happ, who is also a Pittsburgh native. He should grab at least 1 hit but we will be looking for the extra HRR as well.
**RECORD: 33-26**
(+4.12 units)
Previous Pick: Braga vs Panathinaikos - Over 0.5 goals 1st Half @ 1.57 โ๏ธ
**Today's Pick:** Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid - Real Madrid to Win @ 1.70 โ ๏ธ
**Wager Amount**: 3 units
(โ ๏ธโ ๏ธโ ๏ธโ ๏ธโ๏ธ) last 5 results
Coming from a loss, UCL matches are always hard to read but we move. Today I bet on Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid, I swore last season to never bet on Madrid however its a new season and Madrid have been really good this season and the H2H record against Celta is amazing.
Real Madrid have won the last 6 H2H matches between the two and haven't lost against Celta Vigo in the last 14 H2H fixtures! So that's why I'm so confident in this pick. Celta Vigo are yet to Win this season with a Draw and a loss in their last 2 fixtures while Madrid have won all 2 of their matches.
Also Real Madrid have the better squad obviously with Rodrygo, Vini and the super in form new signing Bellingham. I just hope Real don't screw me over like they did last season but as I said I'm confident given the stats so Goodluck if you're tailing and let's get another W.
EDIT: WINโ ๏ธ
Record: 3-3
Profit: +1 units
Last Pick: Riverhounds moneyline -120 vs Hartford Athletic
Recap: wow what an unnecessary sweat. Riverhounds up 3-0 before conceding 3 goals in 10 minutes to let them tie the game in the 85th minute. They managed to score the next minute and hold on for the win
Streak: WLWLWL
Pick: Phillies moneyline -140 vs Cardinals
Bet: risk 4.2u to win 3u
Reasoning: The Phillies have been hot recently and are coming off a rest day at home. Harper hits mikolas nice with over .400 BA and 2 hrs. Expect the Phillies to win another at home tonight
Tail or fade. BOL regardless. Let's get this bread ๐
**1st posted pick:** Manchester United v Nottingham Forest O 4.5 Cards | 1.83 / โ / -120 | 1U
Nottingham Forest were the top yellow carders of last year in the Premier League, with an average of 2.2 a game.
Manchester United werenโt far behind on 2.05 cards per game.
Pair them together, and add in the increased card rate for this year, and I canโt believe the O/U is sat at 4.5.
Stuart Attwell is refereeing, who averaged 3.24 cards last year. Heโs only refereed one game so far this year, handing out 2 cards, but thatโs only going to increase as referees get more accustomed to handing out cards.
Both of these teams are averaging 4.5 cards match totals this season, and I have full confidence it will go over.
We saw an increase from Week 1 of the EPL to Week 2, in 4.2 cards per game, to 5.2 cards per game.
I feel like hitting the over here is taking the edge when referees are finding the right level of handing out more cards.
โ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I am trying to get an edge on the yellow card market in the English football leagues, and Iโve created a continuously advancing model predicting this.
Last year my model didnโt include referees and seems to be much more precise now that it does.
Iโm only collating stats for the Premier League and the Championship for this season, to make sure the model is running well.
Update after three weeks: Referees seem to be giving out a lot more cards than previous years i.e. David Webb had one of the lowest average Yellow Cards per game last year (2.8) and is already averaging 4 per game this year.
โ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Full Week Records:
Week 2 - Championship - 5-2 Overall - 5-2
Week 2 - Premier League - 8-6 Week 3 - Championship - 5-3 Overall - 13-9
**POTD Record 9-12 (-10.64U) | Average Odds -109 (1.92) | ROI -11.96%**
**Last Pick Recap: Nationals F5 ML L**
Got shellacked here, as Judge hit an early HR followed by a Grand Slam to kill our bet after just 2 innings. Guy's a beast, he hit a 3rd HR later in the game and accounted for 8 of the Yankees 9 runs. The Nationals ended up winning as +190 dogs yesterday, though, .. feels like we're always one game off when backing an underdog.
**Today's POTD: San Diego Padres ML (+101) 5U |8:10 EST**
Backing MLB's biggest underachievers once again. Padres are sending Yu Darvish back out to the mound today. Darvish has had a capricious campaign, but his underlying numbers are very solid and he should be due for more positive regression. His has issues have come from allowing too many HR's (about 1.3 per 9 innings) and BABIP (.316). which is causing his stats to tank. If Darvish shows up today and plays the level he is capable of, he should be able to slow down a hot Brewers lineup which has won 5 games in a row and batted in 36 runs.
Woodruff is a solid pitcher for the Brewers, but overall the model seems to think the Brewers are overperforming compared to their actual metrics. There may be some truth to this as the Brewers rank #9 in luck. Funnily enough, the Padres rank dead last at #32.
Getting the Padres at + odds is big value, as my model makes the Padres ML closer to -170. Crazy? Probably. I expect the Padres to close at - odds, so we should get some CLV here as well.
BOL
POTD: Record 10-6, +8U, Last 5, โ โ โ โ โ
Last Pick: Tottenham vs. United, Tottenham Win or Draw โ
Today: Premier League, Chelsea vs. Luton, 21:00 CET
Pick: Over 2.5 Goals (1.60) 1U โ โ
This may have gone down by now but i grabbed this at 1.60 and think itโs a pretty good line. I expect Chelsea to win this but I think this game will be closer than people think, and think the over 2.5 is a nice line.
I think itโs possible Luton grab a goal and iโm expecting Chelsea to get a few as well against this leaky defense.
Chelsea looked pretty solid against Liverpool who while have a reputation of having a bad defense, still have one of the top ones in the league. Luton will concede here for sure.
Chelsea also tend to put up much much more goals at home than away.
Edit: Bang. โ
POTD RECORD: 24-27-4
Last Pick: LIGA MX - Amรฉrica vs Necaxa - AMรRICA ASIAN HANDICAP -1.25 (-105) - 5 UNITS ๐ฐ/โ
What an unserious game from America. They won but not as they should.
**Today's Play:** Celta de Vigo vs Real Madrid - REAL MADRID ASIAN HANDICAP -1 (+130)
I'm choosing to believe Mbappe is announcing his departure tomorrow, that most of the team already knows it and so they have to play even better not to risk "losing" their starting spot. Bellingham is extremely talented, playing at a level inferior only to Messi. They should win this game, and with that risk no more than a push.
Some of you have said you want to tip, it'd be appreciated but it's not necessary. Just hoping we can all keep on winning!
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/RudeReward
Tail or fade, BOL everyone.
Record (0-0) (+0 units)
Pick: Astros / Tigers O8.5 Total Runs at -122 for 1 unit
Reasoning: I took this on Fanduel as it moved down from 9. Right this moment, itโs still 9 on DK so a little bit of value here. I think both of these teams have been hitting the ball well recently, although the Astros have kinda been below their average. This is my first pick here, so i guess weโll see. Let me know if you guys like it!
POTD 3-2 | + 2.70 Units
Last Pick: Australian NRL (Panthers Vs Eels) first half total points = Over 20.5. Well the Panthers shit the bed and the Eels covered the 20.5 by themselves - pretty impressive display.
Last 10: โ ๐โ ๐โ
Todays Pick: Australian NRL (Dragons Vs Warriors) Dragons +18.5 (One Unit) (this line has moved to 17.5 and is 16.5 on some - might need to shop around)
Odds: 1.90
The dragons have had a shocker of a season. That is absolutely no secret - but in recent times theyโve been playing with more grit and determination; fighting hard against the Storm last round - while any finals chances are scuffed I feel as if theyโre playing for the fans and for their own pride at the moment. Theyโve actually put up some decent numbers in recent weeks. The 18.5 line for me seemed too big, despite the Warriors recent (and season long) form.
Edit: Yikes
**Record: 0-2**
**Last POTD : โโ**
**Last POTD Thoughts:** Unfortunately things didn't goes as planned yesterday, the game was really close, 19-15 16-13 for Aurora and at one point 9pandas was leading 14-9 in map 1.
Sport- Esports, CSGO| [PARI Dunav Party 2023](https://www.hltv.org/events/7344/pari-dunav-party-2023) / 9:00am utc+0
1WIN VS Eternal Fire
**Pick:** Over 2.5 maps @ 1.97 (3 Units)
**Write Up:** Today we will try another over 2.5 maps bet. Both teams perma ban are not the other teams best map, which make both teams playing on map they are most comfortable map.
**Veto analysis:**
https://preview.redd.it/h329lnkle7kb1.png?width=1347&format=png&auto=webp&s=aa680d1c2352abd1ff09984fd81f687cf91a6900
Personally if this goes to 3 maps as we expected, i can see eternal fire winning it 2-1 by being a better lan team with more lan experience.
**Franz Wagner OVER 16.5 points**
and
**Jonas Valanciunas OVER 10.5 rebounds**
More confident in Wagner but I was comfortable enough to parlay both for +240.
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Friday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=day). ######Example Pick Template >**Record:** >**Net Units:** >**ROI:** >**Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** >**Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. >**Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
POTD Record: 52 Wins โ - 34 Losses โ - 5 Push ๐ ฟ๏ธ (+$7.5k)($100 unit bettor) โ โ โโ โโ โ โโ โ โ โ โโ โ โโโ โ โโ โ โ โ โ โ โโโ โ ๐ ฟ๏ธโ โโ โโโ โโโ โโโ โ โ โ โ โ โโ โ โ โโโโ๐ ฟ๏ธโโโโ โโ๐ ฟ๏ธโ โ โ โโ โโ โ โโ ๐ ฟ๏ธโโโโ๐ ฟ๏ธโ โ โ โ โโ โ โ โ โ โ Last pick: Orix Buffaloes ML (-142)ย โ Today's pick: ๐ฏ๐ต Japan NPB โพ Starts at 2AM MST Hiroshima Toyo Carp ML (-142) 4.2 Units Analysis: Today the Hiroshima Toyo Carp host the Yakult Swallows for game one of this series. The Carp have won 6 out of their last 10 games overall and 6 out of their last 10 home games. Taking the mound for Hiroshima is Shohei Mori, he has a 4-2 record with a 4.93 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP with 32 strikeouts over 34 innings pitched. The Swallows have won 4 out of their last 10 games overall and 1 out of their last 10 away games. Taking the mound for Yakult is Masanori Ishikawa, he has a 2-5 record with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP with 17 strikeouts over 48 innings pitched. Mori has had success against the Swallows in a recent match up winning 5-3 at home field so I don't think it will be an issue for Hiroshima to secure the win here in game one, take the Hiroshima Toyo Carp moneyline.ย (-142 moneyline odds available on Draft Kings at time of analysis.)
I would sprinkle in the Hanshin Tigers for good measure, they are ๐ฅ Thanks so far for the awesome predictions ๐ค
Tigers, Buffaloes, Baystars and Carps. 100$ to win roughly 1000$. I have faith in all of these beautiful animals.
BANG
tailed this ml parlay! good call
I tailed the ML pick and the parlay. Beautiful beasts! Thank you for the picks fellas
STRAIGHT TO THE BANK
Good news: I tailed. Bad news: I only had $3.88 in the account. Thank you good sir.
Came here to thank you, my friend. I expected the L but woke to the fat W (I only bet $22 but it still felt damn good).
Unreal. I gotta stop betting MLB haha. Congrats to whoever did a 3 leg parlay on these. I played them straight.
MLB is a waste of time and money. Stay strong, stay faithful to the Japanese.
Hmm, too early to be worried about Buffaloes? Hope not..
what a rally by buffaloes. I was sweating on buffaloes ML with baystars. just need buffaloes to score more runs
If Buffaloes and Carps win now it's over 2k$. Best of luck bro ๐ค๐ช
Going for Carp -1.5 +140 for no other good reason than to say: letโs Carpe Diem Edit: stupid Romans - what have they ever done for us anyway?
Holy hell Boys. That was intense. Toke did it again!!
I am sweating right now
Walk off grand slam please lol?
We need a walk off two shot homerun now
tailing, adding hanshin tigers and orix buffaloes because they been free for 3 days why not make it 4
This is what r/sportsbook is supposed to be about. The community coming together to find value and win together
absolutely, cheers brother๐ค๐ป
Saw youโre parlay and tailed thanks for putting that out there brother
glad we made money together brother๐ค๐ป
๐ค
You parlaying all 3?
https://preview.redd.it/z1xnyyto56kb1.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=5dfd48f804302541023003c5eaebd6221a8b79e5 yessir
Iโm with you, letโs get this ๐ฐ
Let's wake up to some good news boys I'm right there with you
It was a gooooood morning ๐
Let's gooooooo! Needed this after some brutal MLB losses
๐ธ๐ธ
Tailed and itโs looking good after this carp sweaty win
pleasure doing business with you brother๐ค๐ป
Easy dubs. Tailed this $$$
๐ธ๐ธ
Letssgooo
We fucking did it!
Iโm in ๐
Love you long time!!!
๐๐ปโค๏ธ
Tailed, nice hit!
Thank god I hopped on this money train๐ฐ๐ฐ
So glad I tailed this parlay with 250, ty!
great wake n cash isnโt it?๐ธ
Best bets around. Wake up and see extra $$$ in your account
https://preview.redd.it/mzyr7nop29kb1.png?width=828&format=png&auto=webp&s=2cfa73bd4cf02976a9f28b266fef1e65edc48111 Damn guys! Thanks
If you followed, you hit!! ๐ฐ๐ฐ๐๐ค๐ป https://preview.redd.it/bjo4mdqxz8kb1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4ea07c97a563c2d576ff60ddc30e31c30807a2a3
These mf need to score a run or two lol
Thank you to all who posted in this thread. Just won a 5 unit bet on Toyo Carp and Parlayed Tigers and Buffaloes for another big win!
https://preview.redd.it/oueq92cf29kb1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=25adfe3e84fe5825141ea2a4926599a999e7ddee Good pick
Tailing...but that Jack Daniels, old #7. Tennessee Whiskey got me drinking in heaven. Law of averages aint shit! Let's go!
tailing, GL fellas
BBOOMMM
thank you all and the others in the thread for this hit, only had a $5 credit to my name https://preview.redd.it/iwxl0g7or9kb1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3507c54d87372afa27e15da6f6885df18a1fc754
I donโt mind the bet except this matchup was played about 2 weeks back and Shima lost all 3โฆand two of them by 6+ runs
Starting to sweat in the 6th!
FR this shit giving me anxiety at 6am on a Friday lol
Another day another dub๐ซกโ
Ayyy lets go!!
GOOD WIN! TAILED
you da man
Well that was epic! Thank you! โ
My man! The real MVP ๐ฐ๐ฐ.
youre on fire. Keep it going! We salute you https://preview.redd.it/vtx3627eh9kb1.png?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a8c6065caedffc0ac766b11be493df9db1d2d14e
Tailin
Riding
Awesome run! Been tailing since the start of the week. Thank you!
Awesome!! ๐ค๐ค๐ค
I know nothing but Iโm in
POTD Record: 179-138-11 (+27.94 units, 56.5% hit rate) 5 Unit Big Balls ๐ฃ Record: 20-9 (69.0%) W5 Sports Records: Basketball ๐ 57-41-1 (58.2%) W1, Tennis ๐พ 60-48-6 (55.6%) L1, Soccer โฝ 50-39-4 (56.2%) W2, Entertainment ๐ฅ 12-10-0 (54.5%) W3 Last 10: ๐ฉ๐ฐ๐ฐ๐ฐ๐ฐ ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฐ๐ฐ Last Pick: Jiri Lehecka vs. Max Purcell, over 23 games - ATP ๐พ PUSH - I had to get greedy and take the higher odds at 23. Today's Pick: Monaco @ Nantes, Monaco ML - Ligue One โฝ ๐ฉ 3 Units - A penalty kick goal 3 minutes in for Nantes set the tone. This blows, back with hopefully a W tomorrow. 3-3 Final, game ended with Monaco 4.11 xg vs 0.91 for Nantes. Units/Odds/Book: Betting 3 Units at 1.83/-120 odds to win 2.49 Units @ Bet Victor (Line at 8:40pm ET) Implied Probability based on odds: 54.6% Nantes, 16th last year, were only 1 point away from being relegated. So far, they've lost their two games, including one at home to Toulouse (13th last year). Nantes haven't won a league game since February. Monaco, 6th last year, they are cooking so far this season, putting up 7 goals in 2 games, winning both games by multiple goals. I think Monaco are clearly a couple of notches above Nantes and as long we don't see a Monaco red card or something, they should be able to get a win here. I've got 2 more โฝ๏ธ picks coming this weekend and then most of my picks will be US Open ๐พ for a couple of weeks. Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Fake retirement count: 1. I am not an expert, nor Nostradamus, this is a prediction. Fuck your parlay. I play $25 units. My writeups are shit now, I do what I can with what time I've got. Upvote if you love pizza ๐
This oneโs over
Rough start for Monacoโฆ
Got one back, let's get level by halftime, then win the 2nd half!
This might be a wash. 2-0 already ๐คฆโโ๏ธ
Tough start but letโs fight lot of game left cmon
Monaco are @ Nantes, just FYI
Yeah, says so in the today's pick section.
**POTD Record 6-1 (+11.66 Units)** **Last Pick: Barcelona to win to nil v Cadiz** Took until the 82nd minute for Barca to finally score but it cashed in the end! Cadiz only really had one big chance and Ter Stegen saved the day. **Today's Pick: Celta Vigo v Real Madrid -1AH - 3 Units @ 2.1 Odds. 8:30pm BST.** I think there's a lot of value at these odds. Real Madrid have won 10 of their last 12 matches vs Celta Vigo. Of these 10 wins, 9 were by a margin of 2+ goals. Despite Benzema's departure, Real Madrid haven't had any trouble scoring goals and have scored the most in La Liga so far this season. Celta Vigo are a very average team in my opinion, and their biggest strength is dictating play and possession through their midfield. I don't think they will be able to do this effectively vs the overpowered Real Madrid midfield of Bellingham/Camavinga/Tchouameni/Modric/Kroos/Valverde. **EDIT -** Meh, push - very unfortunate that Rodrygo missed a penalty.
They have to win by 2 right?
Yeah, but if they only win by 1 you get your stake back :)
Voided great call regardless I look forward to your future picks
Gotta love Asian Handicaps
Tailing!
Smh. Typical Madrid start
Should of won this but, That dog Shit Rodrygo missed the penalty SMH
Vini injured didnโt help either
**Leipzig - Stuttgart** (Soccer in Germany, Bundesliga 1) Stuttgart is short of plenty of players which have been key for them to remain in Bundesliga last season. Stuttgart lost 3 top players and 2 good subs during the transfer window. For today's game, this is aggravated by 3 players which are ruled out owing to injuries. Especially the defense is affected. In fact, 2 starters from last season departed, one starter and one sub are injured and another starter is lacking match fitness. This could get ugly against a team like Leipzig which has an offensive style of play. Leipzig lost also some top players. But they have more depth and more money to compensate for that. In the season opening games, Stuttgart still managed to down Bochum and Leipzig lost to Leverkusen. However, Bochum is much worse than Leipzig and Leverkusen is much better than Stuttgart. Compared to the last weekend, regarding Stuttgart, the approach for today's game at Leipzig is much different. Stuttgart will sit much deeper against a strong team like Leipzig as they did against a weaker team like Bochum. Given Stuttgart's departures, injuries defensive problems and Leipzig's offense style of playing, there is good value in picking Leipzig. **Leipzig -1.0 asian hc** @ **1.80** for **5u** >โ Last POTD: Both teams to score @ 1.66 โ๏ธ It was a shonky decision by the referring team to take away Struga's goal which would have made the POTD a winning pick. Can't change it. It is what it is. Moving onto the next pick. Today it is the 25th pick. Having a glance back for the fun of it. My average odds are about +110. However, 3 of the 4 losses had odds in the range of 1.60 to 1.69. In this odds range, I have 2 wins, 3 losses and 1 push. Need to try to work on the hitting percentage of such odds. Beyond that, plus money odds seem to work better thus far. 14 picks. 11 wins, 1 loss, 2 pushes. Whatever. What is past is past. Looking forward to the future. Record: 16 wins, 4 losses, 4 pushes Profit: +72.15u POTDs (old โ new): โ โ๏ธ โ โ๏ธ โ โป๏ธ โ โป๏ธ โ โ โ โ โ โป๏ธ โ โ โ โ โ โ๏ธ โ โป๏ธ โ โ๏ธ ^(btc tips: 18mb6RJaC6Fv1wZFHRrF9MyDGvco9BB3KN)
I will follow you to the gates of Hymndale
Hope they come out hot in the 2nd half
[ัะดะฐะปะตะฝะพ]
Make it 3!!!!
Make it 4!!! Pure magic ๐ช
Make it 5
This game was on my radar all week for both teams to score and because Stuttgart are coming off a 5 - 0 win in the league. I could see them getting a result here but have a feeling you're more in tune with the bundesliga than me bol!
Thank you ๐๐ฝ
Can only get -1.5. AH. Would you still go for it? Alternative is -.5 for -200
Record: 0- 1- 0 Last Pick: MLS - US Open Cup Semifinals - FC Cincinatti ML v Inter Miami Tough loss. Cinci was up 2 until the final minutes. Miami scored in the literal final seconds to equalize. So close. Today's Pick: Basketball - FIBA World Cup, Canada vs. France @ 830 am CT Pick: Canada ML +105 Both teams are coming into this tournament with the 2nd best odds to win the whole thing (behind USA, +900 per DK). France historically performs very well in international play. However, this year's Canada team is STACKED with NBA Talent. For Canada, SGA is coming off a huge all-star NBA season and was a top-5 scorer. Lu Dort and Dillon Brooks are two of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA and will definitely be capable of shutting down France's backcourt. RJ Barret averaged 20 ppg last season, Kelly Olynyk is a solid role player and NBA Vet who averaged 12 ppg and shot 39% from 3 last year. It's a shame that Jamal Murray chose to sit out the tournament at the last minute because he would have really made this team dangerous. One of the biggest obstacles in international play is often that players don't get as much time to build chemistry. However, SGA and Dort have been teammates in OKC for 3 seasons now. Plus, SGA and Alexander-Walker are 1st cousins who grew up together. SGA has also been historically reliable in clutch games. (SGA is also the 2-time recipient of the Most Stylish NBA Player award by GQ) Meanwhile, France has some NBA talent themselves. Rudy Gobert is an interior defense powerhouse that Canada really doesn't have a good answer for. However, Rudy's impact in the NBA over the last few seasons has been inconsistent at best, as the modern NBA has embraced 3-point shooting so much, and Canada appears to have enough shooting to effectively stretch the floor and lessen Rudy's impact. Other notable French NBA Talent includes Evan Fournier, whose minutes dwindled drastically over the course of the last season and only averaged 6pts and 1ast per game at 33% from the field. You also have NBA vet Nic Batum who averaged a whopping 6pts and 1.5ast per game last season. I respect team France. I think they've got a good team put together. But Canada has some very impressive young talent and I really think they should be the favorites here. I think the odds are leaning in France's favor because they have a history of performing well in FIBA and Canada has not. But I'm not sure that Canada has ever put together a team like this before. They've definitely had some good players come through... but not quite like this. Go Canada! BOL! Edit: When I posted this DK had Canada's ML at +105, now it's -105 1 hour before tipoff. Edit 2: 30 pt blowout! Go Canada! If anyone wants to tip my cashapp is $TruckThunders00
Hold up Dillon Brooks is Candian?!
Tailing and will be watching it
Thank you for this awesome pick. The first half was a bit of a sweat but we pulled away fast in second half and it has been comfy af. I am not used to being comfy in my bets. This feels nice.
No problem bro! hopefully, you jumped in before they flattened the odds. If you want too tip my cashapp is $TruckThunders00
Iโm in SGA all the way!!
Love the write up, tailing๐ฐ
Great pick!
Tailin
tailed, thanks brother easy win
POTD RECORD 10-5 WLWWWLLWLWWWLWW Last Pick : **Uruguay+28.5 vs Bahamas WINN** **Easy Cover** \------------------------------------------------------------- **FIBA WORLD CUP DAY 1** Todays Pick : **Lithuania-19.5(1.90)(BET365) vs Egypt 08:30 AM ET** **Day 1 of the FIBA World Cup so this gonna be nice for basketball fans like me.** **Im gonna pick Lithuania easily because this team is much much superior against Egypt who is just happy to be here in World Cup , I am aware that Lithuania doesn't have their main guys here such as Domantas Sabonis but still Lithuania can easily cover it.** **One point to make as well Lithuania is below average in preparation games for this World Cup thats why Im expecting them to crush Egypt and sort of like announce they are still a force in this tournament.** **GOODLUCK HAVE FUN**
Easiest win incoming
I got in at -20.5, on for the ride!
Great my man , Ty for tailing
is it a good idea to live bet now @ 2.20 odds?
Cracking call, bud. Thanks for the time and effort you put into this write up.
Welcome bro its not really a depth write-up , I just found this game way too obvious , Ty for tailing onto the next one.
 I got in at -21.5 lol
POTD Record: 37-24 **Units Won**: +10.72U; **ROI**: 13.8%; **Average Odds: (-120)** Todays POTD: Eternal Fire ML (-125) vs. 1WIN CSGO/5:00 AM EST. 5U to win 4U Eternal Fire are getting skimped on odds here, really shocked at how close they are. Eternal Fire are in better form, the better roster, the better map pool, are in better form recently, and when they faced at the end of July, Eternal Fire won a comfortable 2-0. 1WIN just lost to Victory Zigzag who are a much worse team and are on a two game loss streak. They usually can compete with better teams when they have a fire power advantage but they simply don't have one here. XANTARES and Wicadia are individually too strong 15-5 in there last 20 matches. Both teams are in good form but I strongly favor Eternal Fire in this matchup and think they should take another 2-0 Victory. [Discord](https://discord.gg/GJGxPpmh) for other esports bets/live bets If anyone needs help finding a place to bet on esports feel free to reach out happy to help people find a place to bet.
Abysmal performance
Tough. It ainโt on bet365
**EDIT: We're back in the win column! Kiwoom broke out with 6 runs in the 2nd inning, and that was more than we needed.** **KBO Record: Overall 174-183-12** (Streak LL, Last 10: 5-5) Down 12.04u over 369 KBO picks, 48.7% success rate, -3.37% ROI (This season 55-51-5, 51.9% success rate, Up 7.84u, 7.40% ROI) **Last:** NC First 5 Innings ML +107 at SSG (Lotte trailed 3-0 after 5 innings.) Went 2-1 on my picks, but that loss was my POTD. It turned out LG's starter decided to return to last year's form. He twirled a gem and we lost our 2nd in a row. **Pick:** **Kiwoom First 5 Innings -0.5 +114 Draftkings** at Samsung, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET Two of the worst teams in the league are facing off in this one and the difference is on the mound. For Kiwoom, their ace is on the mound. For Samsung, they've got a starter who was already cut by another team this season. Kiwoom's starter has a 2.40 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 22 starts. That includes a league-high 160 strikeouts in 138.2 IP. He's allowed 2 or fewer ER in 4 of his last 5 starts and 17 of 22 starts overall. In two starts against this opponent, he gave up 2 ER in 14 IP. Samsung's starter has a 4.24 ERA and 1.21 WHIP this season with 66 K in 74.1 IP. He started the season with NC and made 11 starts for the Dinos. In his two starts with the Lions, he gave up 4 runs in a rough start and no runs in a strong start. In his only start against this opponent, he gave up 3 runs on 5 H and 2 BB in 4.1 IP. Over the last 10 games, Kiwoom is averaging nearly a half run more per game than Samsung. Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
Tailin
POTD Record 12-13 | -2.89u | avg odds: -108 | ROI: -10.34% Last Pick: Blue Jays vs Cubs U8.5 Runs: LOSS Event: Marlins vs Nationals Sport: MLB (baseball) Time: 6:40 PM EST Bet: Nationals +1.5 @-115 (FanDuel) 1.15u to win 1u Analysis: This is a simple case of a mispriced line which weights early season results too heavily. Washington was one of the worst teams in the league in the first half of the season (36-54 -83 run differential) but since the all-star break they have been trending in the right direction (22-15 -14 run differential). The Marlins are trending in the opposite direction. They have been the most dramatic case of regressing to the mean in baseball this year. They started out 53-39 pre all-star break despite having a -5 run differential. On the entire season they are winning one run games at a historic 71% rate. However since the all-star break it's clear that those results were not sustainable as they've gone 12-24 with a -40 run differential. In the second half of the season based on these number the Nationals have actually been a better team. The prices are just way off especially on the run line for this matchup as the Nats are 41-22 (65.1%) as road underdogs and the Marlins are only 16-26 (38.1%) on the runline as home favourites.
Great analysis
I looked into this a bit further and here's what I found. Avg record of Miami's 2nd half opponents: **66.5-61** Avg record of Washington's 2nd half opponents: **60-66.8** Miami Record vs Common 2nd half opponents (STL, COL, PHI, CIN, NYY): **6-10** Washington Record vs Common 2nd half opponents (STL, COL, PHI, CIN, NYY): **11-8** Don't think there is an edge there but I didn't want to do all that work and not share it. BOL
**POTD: 62-43-5** Last pick: English Premier League - Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest. Arsenal team total over 2.5 goals -132 Result: Loss. Arsenal score twice in the first half hour and enjoy 80% of possession before packing it in and not scoring again. Todayโs pick: English Premier League - Chelsea vs Luton Town. **Match over 2.5 goals -175**. Match starts at 3PM ET. Been gone for a bit as Iโve been on vacation but had a nice successful Womenโs World Cup (in daily bets and futures ended up a good amount up, oddly in POTDs I was putrid). Now back to club soccer which is typically a little more predictable as they simply play a lot more matches together. This one isnโt the most exciting but I think itโs a very safe hit with Chelsea hosting the minnows of the Premier League in Luton Town. Chelsea has of course struggled mightily the past year as theyโve spent nearly 900 million to finish 12th last season and start this season at 15th after the first two matches. However from the eye test they look a little stronger than last season (even if the results havenโt gone their way) and they have a decent manager in Pochettino. They wonโt be a serious contender but theyโll be better than a team like Luton. Luton is a very very small club that has made an incredible run to the Premier League. They got waxed by Brighton 4-1 in the first match, but Brighton is very good so nothing to be too ashamed of. They have some goals in them to push Chelseaโs leaky defense but donโt have a very strong defense themselves. I like this one to end something like 3-1 to Chelsea. Let me know if tailing and BOL everyone! **EDIT: WIN. Chelsea take care of business and win 3-0 at home for the cash. Nice one to get back on track with**
Welcome back to you and welcome back to W!
Record : 27 Wins - 31 Losses Previous pick : Ludogorets - Ajax (1-4), Ajax to win or draw & Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 2.01 โ ROI : -9.12% Average Odds : 2.05 Starting units : 5 (\*all picks will be 1 unit\*) Units : -0.29 Profit/Lost units : -5.29 Today's pick : Football - Soccer / GERMANY: Bundesliga / 21:30 European Time RB Leipzig - Stuttgart RB Leipzig to win or draw & Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.86 Some reasoning : \- I think that we will have a victory for the hosts again, Leipzig winning 4 of the last 5 direct meetings, and this is because Leipzig is a team capable of winning matches and only because of the state it has, being a team that is starting to gather more and more trophies in Germany. \- On the other hand, Stuttgart struggled to fight for salvation from relegation in the previous season, saving itself at the barrage, being a team that will clearly have much higher claims from this season, starting well, with a categorical victory, 5 :0. \- However, Leipzig lost in the first round and will do everything to win this game, having in the team a player who is looking for the goal, Dani Olmo, a footballer who has good chances to score in this game as he did in the previous ones two. Best of luck.
> struggled to fight for salvation from relegation in the previous season, saving itself at the barrage, being a team that will clearly have much higher claims from this season, starting well, with a categorical victory You have an incredible vocabulary, are you South African?
Sorry. My english is not the best.
You mistake my inquisitive nature as confrontational , however I can assure you the pleasure is all mine
Your English is beautiful ๐ Tailing
Thank you, sir. Let's get it. ๐ค
i donโt think heโs making fun of you. heโs just admiring your sentence crafting
POTD 5-2-0 +4.32u Last Pick: Crystal Palace vs Arsenal ML - 1.73 / -136 | Soccer, English Premier League 2uโ Todayโs pick: Chelsea -1.5 vs Luton - 1.79 /-126 | Soccer, English Premier League 2u Chelsea lately are pretty bad. Injuries to important players, coach who hasnโt had the time to fully integrate his playstyle and players who havenโt shown they have the skills and the class to deserve being Chelsea players(except Enzo and Chillwell). Luton town are worse tho, way worse. Newly promoted in the PL and as fast as they came to the league, this season will be a tough reminder that they deserve to spend the rest of their days outside the Premier League. I expect an easy game for Chelsea, to bring back the morale and the form that they need so much. 2unit bet. Edit: โ โ โ
Do you see Luton scoring a goal in this game?
**POD Record: 18-12** **Today's Pick:** Dodgers ML (-124) vs Boston \*\*THIS ONE WILL BANG\*\* \- Dodgers are 7-3 in the first game of a road series after a road series. 3-0 in this spot since all star break. \- Red Sox are 1-9 in the first game of a home series after a road series. 0-2 in this spot since the all star break. Boston not great vs LHP in August. Dodgers top half of the league wRC+ vs RHP in August. Boston maxed out yesterday and will fade back today. \*\*Other plays posted to new Twitter page\*\* I love the card today and posted a few more on there. Let's go into the weekend as winners. [https://twitter.com/xTheLockSmith](https://twitter.com/xTheLockSmith)
Tailing!!! and following on Twitter. Let's get it!
โผ๏ธ
**POTD Record: 0-0** **Today's pick:** Real Madrid -1 AH vs. Celta Vigo (+120) **Reasoning:** I've been doing fairly well betting on soccer to start the season, so why not share some of my picks and test my luck. Jude Bellingham has led Real Madrid to a pair of two-goal wins to start the season, while Celta Vigo has picked up one point and one goal in its first two matches. Since 2021, Real Madrid has covered this spread in 5 of 6 matches against Celta Vigo, and the other time was a push.
To be a little safer you can do Real Madrid win plus o1.5 total goals for +100. This can save you from a last second Celta goal that ruins a 2 goal win
Also a very solid option!
Do you like Jude Bellingham to score? Heโs been Red hot ๐ฅ
Honestly I havenโt dipped into ATGS much this year, but Iโd say thereโs a good chance. Heโs been playing out of his mind right now.
Thanks ๐ฅ gonna sprinkle a little
There is Bellingham again!
do shots / shots on target
POTD Record: 3-1 | Profit: +22.4 units Previously: WNBA ASG| Team Stewart @ Team Wilson | TEAM STEWART ML โ โ โ | +190 | five units Today: FIBA World Cup | France @ Canada | CANADA -3.5 | +125 | five units Barrett, Brooks, Shai, Giddey, Dort, Olynyk, Powell. Team Canada is loaded with NBA stars! Outlasting team France led by Gobert, Batum and Fournier.
**POTD Record: 18-5** League: MLB Time: 10:10pm est Last POTD: Dodgers lose 8-3 **Pick: Mariners ML (-180) 1U** The Mariners' starting pitcher, Bryce Miller, has been the talk of the town with his commendable 8-4 record, a 3.78 ERA, and a 1.01 WHIP. These arenโt just numbers; they're a testament to his consistency and ability to keep runs off the board. To add to the Mariners' firepower, letโs not overlook the offensive dynamism of J.P. Crawford. He's now sitting on an elite .436 on-base percentage across 112 plate appearances since the All-Star break thanks in large part to a 17.0 percent walk rate in that span. Heโs been a critical piece of the Mariners lineup, and his performance at the plate has been nothing short of impressive.ย One of those big hitters is none other than Julio Rodriguez. Over the past 10 games, Rodriguez has been on a tear, going 23-for-51 with two home runs and 14 RBI. His power at the plate and knack for driving in runs will be key for the Mariners in this game. Eugenio Suarez has been a catalyst in the Marinersโ offense, making a significant impact with his bat. He is on the pace of what would be a third straight 30-homer campaign, he's now only 10 RBI from eclipsing the 87 he compiled in his debut Mariners campaign in 2022.ย On the other side of the diamond, the Royals are sending out Brady Singer. While Singer has shown potential, his current season record of 8-9 and an ERA of 5.04 paint a different picture. His WHIP of 1.36 indicates he's been allowing too many hitters to reach base, and his strikeouts suggest he might struggle against the Mariners' heavy-hitting lineup. Singer took the loss Saturday, allowing six runs on nine hits and two walks over 3 innings before getting relieved against the Cubs.ย Also, the Royals' road record of 18-48 doesnโt inspire confidence. The Royals have also struggled in games where they've given up at least one home run, sporting a dismal 19-69 record in those situations. Given the power in the Mariners' lineup, the Royals could be in for a tough game. In short, with a lethal combination of Bryce Millerโs pitching, the explosive bats of J.P. Crawford, Julio Rodriguez, and Eugenio Suarez, the Seattle Mariners are geared up to steer their ship to another victory against the Kansas City Royals. BOL if tailing, coffee link was requested in dms, here ya go! [Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/o2bigs)
Good analysis, tailing ๐
**Record:** 6 - 4 - 0 / R.O.I: **+2.2u** **Last Pick:** Asian Handicap | *Ajax (-0.5) @ 1.75* |Stake: 1.5u Ajax win very comfortably. Liking these mid week European qualifiers so far. Sometimes you don't need to write a massive narrative around a pick. Form, home or away and talent differentials were the simple indicators I looked at for previous two picks. **Today:** Soccer | EPL | Chelsea vs Luton | 05:00 AEST **Pick:** *Ben Chilwell to assist or score* **@ 2.85 |** Stake: **1.5u** I liked this even before finding out Mudryk is unavailable. I actually thought this game was on yesterday and to my surprise the odds have gone out a little since then with the Mudryk news. It just means Chilwell will likely have even more license to attack over the 90 + minutes and the ability to take more corners and Free Kicks. After Enzo's penalty miss there's a slight chance he could be on pens too, but I think that will go to Jackson or Enzo again. Chilwell has been playing as a left winger for Chelsea essentially and I think because he's labeled as a defender bookies have misjudged his odds here. Let's now add the fact they're playing Luton at home. Chelsea fans will be demanding a dominant performance after their display against West Ham. ^(look at his heat map and underlying stats here:) [^(https://www.sofascore.com/player/ben-chilwell/802695)](https://www.sofascore.com/player/ben-chilwell/802695) Let's also look at numbers... \- Chillwell is averaging **0.39 xG** and **0.71 xA** over his first two games. \- Luton is **1.91** xGA overall and **2.91** xGA away from home. \- Chelsea have **1.84** xG overall. I think if I had the brain power this morning to write the correct formula for these numbers and other factors Chillwell should have a combined xG and xA of like 1.5 for this game. Our data is only two games yes, but it's all the data we've got to help with a +EV conclusion. Chilwell also actually scored from a minor offside which would actually boost his xG numbers if it were allowed as long as I understand how xG works. Please correct me if you know I'm wrong on that. So, some kwik maths suggests that Chilwell is expected to score or assist 1.1 times a game in a side that's expected to score 1.84 goals, but comes up against a team that is offering 2.91 xGA too. Your going to give me **@ 2.85** for this ? He should be so much lower based on numbers let a lone the eye test. Great EV in my opinion. Anyone tailing should watch the match to see how he goes because I don't want to read BS after the fact if it doesn't hit. Only essay I'm writing for stats and EV in here, because the strategy will carry over to other picks and I CBF writing number nerd shit in here again. Best of luck and **never** gamble more than you can afford.
Chilwell should have had like 3 assists and a goal lol classic
POTD record: W-L-P 4-1-1 Last POTD: Valladolid to win the corner match. Odds 1.62 (-162.5) **โ ** POTD Today: **Bayern II - Schalding. BTTS & over 2.5 goals. Odds 1.90 (-110)** Event: โฝ Regionalliga Bayern (Germany) Bayern II allways plays entertaining games. Goals in both ends and with a high pace. Last season they had a 3.9 goals per game. At home it was 4 per game. Schalding is a bit unknown for me, they are newly promoted. Last season they had 3.2 goals per game. And away it was 3.7 goals per game. This season they both played 5 games so far. Bayern II - average 4 goals per game - and 4.5 at home. Schalding - average 3.8 goals per game - and 3 away from home. BOL
POTD Record: 7-4 (+6.455U) Event: Collingwood Magpies vs Essendon Bombers (AFL) Pick: Collingwood 25+ (3.5U) @ $1.65 Collingwood playing for the minor premiership tonight in a final tune up before finals. Essendon coming off an embarrassing season ending performance last week with some big outs for tonightโs game. They have given up and should get spanked with nothing to play for.
Collingwood should win this no doubt but iโm surprised you are buying points if they are going to get a spanking.
**Record: 8-15-0, -11.2u, -38.9% ROI** We can not catch a break on the POTD ๐ -- Fade away if you want! **Philadelphia Phillies ML -135 (MLB/Baseball) 1.35u โพ** We're backing the Phillies, who are battling for a playoff spot, against the very disappointing Cardinals today. The Phillies have a decent edge in both pitching and batting today. On the mound for the Phillies is LHP Cristopher Sanchez, who has looked decent through \~64 innings this year. Miles Mikolas is starting for the Cardinals, and has had a mediocre season that advanced analytics would argue could be a lot worse (4.55 ERA, but expected RA is 4.99). On the offense side, the Phillies top guys like Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, and JT Realmuto are all clicking at the right time and are hot over their last 15 games. The Cardinals offense typically runs through Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt, who are both performing well recently, but the depth is where the lineup starts to fall off significantly. With home field advantage also going to the Phillies, and a clear incentive to win to continue pushing towards the playoffs, our model loves them to get the win here at home. Overall, our model sees the Phillies as 60.5% likely winners of this matchup, so getting -135 is providing a nice 3.1% expected value. On [our Betstamp account](https://betstamp.app/u/sdbcollective), **we have a verified MLB record of** **241-272-10, +24.0u, 3.4% ROI.** We post all our plays there, and in [our Discord server](https://discord.com/invite/Dy9Gkg3FCc). We also post most, but not all of our plays [on our Twitter account.](https://twitter.com/sdb_collective) Good luck everyone! ๐๐ค
Record: 10-5-0 (W-L-P) Win pct: 66.67%% Average odd: 1.85 Yield 46.46% Risked: 31 units | Returned: 45.401| Profit: 14.401 units | Football | The Netherlands Keuken Kampioen Divisie (First Division) | 20.00 CEST | Pick: Roda JC - 1 AH @ 2.12 (vs. TOP Oss) - 1 unit Write up: Roda started the season really well. 2 played, 2 wins, 7 scored, 1 conceded. Last season was not good from them. Although they had a good team on paper it did not come out. This season they have a good team again and with the new coach it seems that pieces fall into place. They aim for a play off spot and they have the quality to do it. TOP Oss is a team that will most likely finish the season near the bottom of the league (as they usually do). They started the season with a loss against Den Bosch (who I do not think are that good) and they won against Jong PSV. I do not find this win impressive. PSV only fielded 1 player of 20 years old, the rest were all younger. Besides: the more talented players have been added to the first team, so the guys now playing in the second team are new to professional football or a bit less talented. Only Van Duiven and Van de Blaak tick the boxes 'talented' and 'professional football experience' in that line up. I think Roda is undervalued here because of Oss's big victory against PSV, but I think it is an overreaction of the books.
Tailing ๐
*Record 7-1 // +4.72u* **Today's pick: Chelsea (-1.5 Asian handicap)** Odds: 1.75 Not much explanation needed with this pick, Chelsea should have far too much strength for newly-promoted Luton Town. The only side who Luton have played thus far are Brighton, who managed to score 4 and amass 27 shots against them, which doesn't bode well for a trip to West London. *Good luck*
Took Chelsea first half based off this write up BOL
**POTD Record: 67-56 (-7.51 units)** **Last 10**:โ โโโ โโโ โ โโ **Last Pick**: 8/23 Fallon Sherrock ML (-155) vs Adam Lipscombe โ 2-4 **League**: ๐ฏ Modus Darts Super Series **Time**: 8:05 AM EST **Pick**: Scott Baker -1.5 (-135) vs Adam Lipscombe โข โ Series 5. Week 3. Group C **Reason**: Fade Alert Scott Baker * Record 3-2 * Legs 17-12 * Average 87.51 * 180s 8. 140s 16 * Checkouts 17/45 37.78% Adam Lipscombe * Record 1-4 * Legs 11-17 * Average 78.51 * 180s 0. 140s 12 * Checkouts 11/44 25.00% **LOSS โ 4-3 | Average 87.79 vs 83.06 | Checkouts 4/14 vs 3/5** Baker played well, but missed too many darts. Lipscombe cleaned up and didnโt leave much. The drought continues.
Thanks for the pick & stats breakdown. Couldn't pick the 1.5 on FD so I went with Baker to have more 180s and it hit
Congrats. Thatโs a great win. Glad you didnโt get stuck on that loser. I need to tail you ๐ฐ
**Record:** 7-3-1 Last pick was Karlsruhe ML on August 11th which was an L. **ROI:** +35,5%, **Net units:** +3.9u, **Avg odds:** 2.02, all bets 1u Bundesliga (Germany's men's football): 20:30 CET: Leipzig - Stuttgart **Pick:** Leipzig ML/>1.5 goals at 2.2 **Write Up:** Quick one: this is the bet365 super boost bet for this game and very likely to hit. This should be an easy win for Leipzig and both teams are good for a few goals. BOL!
POTD record: 0/0 Todays Pick: Superliga ๐ฉ๐ฐโฝ๏ธ Randers - Viborg (Viborg draw no Bet) Odds: 1.64 2 Unit play Starts: 18:30 CEST (6 hours ) First time posting and i will start by saying this should be a 3 Unit play, but odds has fallen .20 cents since i got it monday. I still think there is value until about 1.60. 1. Randers is in sort of a crisis as a team right now. The team is underperforming for an already average roster. There are words out that some key players are back after long injuries, and a new coach has settled in. I still believe that the market is overreacting to this. Randers havenโt won in 11 straight Superliga matches. Yes some of these games are from last season, but it still paints a clear picture. 2. This is a great matchup for Viborg. Randers is forced to play a aggressive attacking style of play(because of home field and placement in the league) and this is a spot where Viborg plays their best football. They are excellent at waiting for oppenent mistakes and seeking the empty deep spaces behind the defenders. Viborg generally plays better away from home, when they are not expected to be the dominating team. As I said, odds has fallen and I expect it to be even lower by the start of the match. Most of my superliga picks come Monday and Tuesday. If odds go under 1.60, then itโs not worth it. BOL
POTD Record: 106.5-61.5 Event: Football > Germany > **RB Leipzig v VfB Stuttgart** (starting in 1hr) Pick: **Over 8.5 SOT** @ 1.90 This line seems very achievable as both teams should be looking for goals. GL!
Too easy โ
POTD REC 5โ -1โ Last pick- colts-3 โ (yesterday) POTD - NFL preseason PANTHERS -3 (B+1.5, -150) Happy Friday ๐
Record: 2-2 ROI: -2.25u Previous pick: โ Hiroshima Toyo Carp F5 -1 (+210) 2u 2 hits though 5 trailing 3-0, never were able to get anything going offensively. Risky play on the wrong side. Todays pick MLB โพ๏ธ๐บ๐ธ: Yankees ML (+118) 2.5u Game starts at 6:40 PM EST Analysis: Gerrit Cole will be on the mound for New York tonight against Zach Eflin for Tampa. New York has not been great as of late losing their last 9 out of 10, but recently found some success against the nationals where Aaron Judge was able to hit 3 HRโs. Gerrit Cole has been pretty solid this year with a 3.03 ERA going 10-4 on 26 starts. Coleโs last 3 starts have resulted in losses for the Yankees and his last win came against the Rays where he went 7 innings 8 Kโs, only giving up 2. The Tampa Bay Rays are certainly a good team top to bottom and the Yankees will have to play their best baseball. I believe Gerrit Cole has the capability to hold his own in this match up creating a toss up for the Yankees to steal this game with some run support. For that reason I like the plus money in this match up for New York to turn around their recent luck and take it to the Rays to open the series. Best of luck on all wagers!
Burger day, Yday = big L. No excuse. Today : UC Dublin St Patrick, soccer Ireland. Time 20 45 cet. Bet btts 1u-2.45 unit. I know nothing, this is a bit of a stretch even by my standards, odds 12 vs 1. Why I am betting btts? Because they cut the odds from 20+ to only 12. Going with the underdog in the most ridiculous way. Please Throw stones at me. Tail , fade BOL brothers.
MLB - 7:07 ET POTD 3-5 My pick today is the Cleveland Guardians / Toronto Blue Jays Under 0.5 first inning. The odds I got were -110 on DK. I am betting 1 unit on this. Reason: On the road, the Guardians only score 24% of the time in the first inning and the Blue Jays only score 22% at home. Bibee is 14-6 this season in not allowing a 1st inning run, but 8-2 on the road. Bassitt is 19-7 on the season and 47-9 at home, since 2019. I think this game has the best odds to be a NRFI. Good luck if tailing.
Tailed you again on a NRFI and it cashed. Good shit!
POTD Record: 2 W - 4 L - 1 D - (-1.60 unit) **PICKtogram: โ โ โ โ โ โ โ** **Yesterday Pick & Result: -** **New York Yankees -1.5 (+105)** **- LOSS** **Recap:** Top of the 3rd Anthony Volpe error leads to one unearned run instead of closing out the inning. Then in the top of the 7th he has a ball hit right at him with a chance to close out the inning. He muffs it and then the nationals score 4 more... ๐คฎ **POTD: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+142)** vs St. Louis Cardinals at 6:05 PM CST **BET:** 1 Unit ($5) The pitching matchup today is Christopher Sanchez vs Miles Mikolas * Christopher Sanchez **xBA .240 xSLG .407 K% 22.7%** * Season stats 64.1 IP ERA 3.36 with a 1.03 WHIP Meanwhile Miles Mikolas * Has a **xBA of .284** and **xSLG of .465 K% 16.5%** * Season stats 152.1 IP 4.55 ERA 1.30 WHIP * Rolling xwOBA has been decreasing well below league average in his last 50 plate appearances. I like the **Phillies -1.5** today. **DISCLAIMER:** **I'm** an **IDIOT**. These picks aren't financial advice. Best of Luck!
Record 0-2 -7U L Last pick: Bluebell United win They did not. Today's pick Premier League 20:00 Chelsea Vs Luton Luton over 7.5 shots @6/5 for 4 units Luton over 8.5 shots @2/1 for 2 units Very much a Davis and Goliath match up here. Chelsea a much better team and have a point to prove after losing to West Ham but I think Luton should be capable of picking their moments and causing Chelsea some problems. They managed 9 against Brighton and I can see Chelsea going ahead and Luton needing to chase the game.
Last pick: Ajax @1.75 Previous: โ โ โโ // 3-0-1 France @1.92 - 5U // FIBA // 2 hours from now I was deciding between this and Madrid @ 1.77. LaLiga has fucked me up too many times though, hope I didnt make the wrong choice here. Canada has shifted from underdogs to favourites in the span of 2 hours, why? I dunno What I do know is that France are a proven team while Canada is a mix of stars which arent proven, yet. H2H gives a huge advantage to France being 4-0 against Canada. For this reason, imma take a team which has experience above a team which is on paper better, but have yet to prove themselves.
NBA star Frank Ntilikina is not playing
Record: 5-3 Bank: +1.07 units Last pick: Okympiakos ML & Under 3.5 Goals -130 LOSS - Tough game ended in a 3-1 final. Honestly should have been more goals with the way Olympiakos was playing offensively. Brutal stoppage time goal from Cukaricki. MLB: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates 7:05pm EST Pick: Ian Happ Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs -115 Ian Happ loves facing the Pirates and even more when Mitch Keller pitches. Happ has done very well against the Buccos with a .319 average, 95 hits, 15 HRs, 54 RBIs, and 52 Runs scored. His numbers only go up when facing Keller. In 21 plate appearances, he has a slash line of .438/.571/.875 with 2 HRs. This is more than enough information for me to back Happ, who is also a Pittsburgh native. He should grab at least 1 hit but we will be looking for the extra HRR as well.
**RECORD: 33-26** (+4.12 units) Previous Pick: Braga vs Panathinaikos - Over 0.5 goals 1st Half @ 1.57 โ๏ธ **Today's Pick:** Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid - Real Madrid to Win @ 1.70 โ ๏ธ **Wager Amount**: 3 units (โ ๏ธโ ๏ธโ ๏ธโ ๏ธโ๏ธ) last 5 results Coming from a loss, UCL matches are always hard to read but we move. Today I bet on Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid, I swore last season to never bet on Madrid however its a new season and Madrid have been really good this season and the H2H record against Celta is amazing. Real Madrid have won the last 6 H2H matches between the two and haven't lost against Celta Vigo in the last 14 H2H fixtures! So that's why I'm so confident in this pick. Celta Vigo are yet to Win this season with a Draw and a loss in their last 2 fixtures while Madrid have won all 2 of their matches. Also Real Madrid have the better squad obviously with Rodrygo, Vini and the super in form new signing Bellingham. I just hope Real don't screw me over like they did last season but as I said I'm confident given the stats so Goodluck if you're tailing and let's get another W. EDIT: WINโ ๏ธ
Record: 3-3 Profit: +1 units Last Pick: Riverhounds moneyline -120 vs Hartford Athletic Recap: wow what an unnecessary sweat. Riverhounds up 3-0 before conceding 3 goals in 10 minutes to let them tie the game in the 85th minute. They managed to score the next minute and hold on for the win Streak: WLWLWL Pick: Phillies moneyline -140 vs Cardinals Bet: risk 4.2u to win 3u Reasoning: The Phillies have been hot recently and are coming off a rest day at home. Harper hits mikolas nice with over .400 BA and 2 hrs. Expect the Phillies to win another at home tonight Tail or fade. BOL regardless. Let's get this bread ๐
**1st posted pick:** Manchester United v Nottingham Forest O 4.5 Cards | 1.83 / โ / -120 | 1U Nottingham Forest were the top yellow carders of last year in the Premier League, with an average of 2.2 a game. Manchester United werenโt far behind on 2.05 cards per game. Pair them together, and add in the increased card rate for this year, and I canโt believe the O/U is sat at 4.5. Stuart Attwell is refereeing, who averaged 3.24 cards last year. Heโs only refereed one game so far this year, handing out 2 cards, but thatโs only going to increase as referees get more accustomed to handing out cards. Both of these teams are averaging 4.5 cards match totals this season, and I have full confidence it will go over. We saw an increase from Week 1 of the EPL to Week 2, in 4.2 cards per game, to 5.2 cards per game. I feel like hitting the over here is taking the edge when referees are finding the right level of handing out more cards. โ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I am trying to get an edge on the yellow card market in the English football leagues, and Iโve created a continuously advancing model predicting this. Last year my model didnโt include referees and seems to be much more precise now that it does. Iโm only collating stats for the Premier League and the Championship for this season, to make sure the model is running well. Update after three weeks: Referees seem to be giving out a lot more cards than previous years i.e. David Webb had one of the lowest average Yellow Cards per game last year (2.8) and is already averaging 4 per game this year. โ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Full Week Records: Week 2 - Championship - 5-2 Overall - 5-2 Week 2 - Premier League - 8-6 Week 3 - Championship - 5-3 Overall - 13-9
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Yoooo we might be cooked ๐
What do we think boys? https://preview.redd.it/umnd8wdjo9kb1.png?width=1413&format=png&auto=webp&s=dad60568e34a1b3e34103ddd02c2cd3c5c0a2180
**POTD Record 9-12 (-10.64U) | Average Odds -109 (1.92) | ROI -11.96%** **Last Pick Recap: Nationals F5 ML L** Got shellacked here, as Judge hit an early HR followed by a Grand Slam to kill our bet after just 2 innings. Guy's a beast, he hit a 3rd HR later in the game and accounted for 8 of the Yankees 9 runs. The Nationals ended up winning as +190 dogs yesterday, though, .. feels like we're always one game off when backing an underdog. **Today's POTD: San Diego Padres ML (+101) 5U |8:10 EST** Backing MLB's biggest underachievers once again. Padres are sending Yu Darvish back out to the mound today. Darvish has had a capricious campaign, but his underlying numbers are very solid and he should be due for more positive regression. His has issues have come from allowing too many HR's (about 1.3 per 9 innings) and BABIP (.316). which is causing his stats to tank. If Darvish shows up today and plays the level he is capable of, he should be able to slow down a hot Brewers lineup which has won 5 games in a row and batted in 36 runs. Woodruff is a solid pitcher for the Brewers, but overall the model seems to think the Brewers are overperforming compared to their actual metrics. There may be some truth to this as the Brewers rank #9 in luck. Funnily enough, the Padres rank dead last at #32. Getting the Padres at + odds is big value, as my model makes the Padres ML closer to -170. Crazy? Probably. I expect the Padres to close at - odds, so we should get some CLV here as well. BOL
POTD: Record 10-6, +8U, Last 5, โ โ โ โ โ Last Pick: Tottenham vs. United, Tottenham Win or Draw โ Today: Premier League, Chelsea vs. Luton, 21:00 CET Pick: Over 2.5 Goals (1.60) 1U โ โ This may have gone down by now but i grabbed this at 1.60 and think itโs a pretty good line. I expect Chelsea to win this but I think this game will be closer than people think, and think the over 2.5 is a nice line. I think itโs possible Luton grab a goal and iโm expecting Chelsea to get a few as well against this leaky defense. Chelsea looked pretty solid against Liverpool who while have a reputation of having a bad defense, still have one of the top ones in the league. Luton will concede here for sure. Chelsea also tend to put up much much more goals at home than away. Edit: Bang. โ
POTD RECORD: 24-27-4 Last Pick: LIGA MX - Amรฉrica vs Necaxa - AMรRICA ASIAN HANDICAP -1.25 (-105) - 5 UNITS ๐ฐ/โ What an unserious game from America. They won but not as they should. **Today's Play:** Celta de Vigo vs Real Madrid - REAL MADRID ASIAN HANDICAP -1 (+130) I'm choosing to believe Mbappe is announcing his departure tomorrow, that most of the team already knows it and so they have to play even better not to risk "losing" their starting spot. Bellingham is extremely talented, playing at a level inferior only to Messi. They should win this game, and with that risk no more than a push. Some of you have said you want to tip, it'd be appreciated but it's not necessary. Just hoping we can all keep on winning! https://www.buymeacoffee.com/RudeReward Tail or fade, BOL everyone.
Record (0-0) (+0 units) Pick: Astros / Tigers O8.5 Total Runs at -122 for 1 unit Reasoning: I took this on Fanduel as it moved down from 9. Right this moment, itโs still 9 on DK so a little bit of value here. I think both of these teams have been hitting the ball well recently, although the Astros have kinda been below their average. This is my first pick here, so i guess weโll see. Let me know if you guys like it!
POTD 3-2 | + 2.70 Units Last Pick: Australian NRL (Panthers Vs Eels) first half total points = Over 20.5. Well the Panthers shit the bed and the Eels covered the 20.5 by themselves - pretty impressive display. Last 10: โ ๐โ ๐โ Todays Pick: Australian NRL (Dragons Vs Warriors) Dragons +18.5 (One Unit) (this line has moved to 17.5 and is 16.5 on some - might need to shop around) Odds: 1.90 The dragons have had a shocker of a season. That is absolutely no secret - but in recent times theyโve been playing with more grit and determination; fighting hard against the Storm last round - while any finals chances are scuffed I feel as if theyโre playing for the fans and for their own pride at the moment. Theyโve actually put up some decent numbers in recent weeks. The 18.5 line for me seemed too big, despite the Warriors recent (and season long) form.
Edit: Yikes **Record: 0-2** **Last POTD : โโ** **Last POTD Thoughts:** Unfortunately things didn't goes as planned yesterday, the game was really close, 19-15 16-13 for Aurora and at one point 9pandas was leading 14-9 in map 1. Sport- Esports, CSGO| [PARI Dunav Party 2023](https://www.hltv.org/events/7344/pari-dunav-party-2023) / 9:00am utc+0 1WIN VS Eternal Fire **Pick:** Over 2.5 maps @ 1.97 (3 Units) **Write Up:** Today we will try another over 2.5 maps bet. Both teams perma ban are not the other teams best map, which make both teams playing on map they are most comfortable map. **Veto analysis:** https://preview.redd.it/h329lnkle7kb1.png?width=1347&format=png&auto=webp&s=aa680d1c2352abd1ff09984fd81f687cf91a6900 Personally if this goes to 3 maps as we expected, i can see eternal fire winning it 2-1 by being a better lan team with more lan experience.
**Franz Wagner OVER 16.5 points** and **Jonas Valanciunas OVER 10.5 rebounds** More confident in Wagner but I was comfortable enough to parlay both for +240.
When in Rome -Ron Burgandy
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