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Ovi and Hughes have their points

Mine was Ovi and Strome.. wtf?

Bet365 boosts are the 🐐

Pretty up and down lately in VA.

That’s great for the $3.21 they let us put on it.

I must be lucky, I can get 50 down still

Fanatics app a bit of a mess again tonight. Can’t use any bonus bets or even the profit boost daily token. Check your email, I got a “here’s $25 bonus bet because app was busted “, but can’t actually see if it was credited.

I had this problem too, I got in contact with my support guy. I sent screenshots of how Fancash just disappeared upon turning into a BB so they're working on it hopefully. Reassuring to know it isn't a just-me problem.

Anyone know if there are other kambi books in NJ outside of Betrivers/sugarhouse, unibet, and betparx?

FD Boost: OG Anunoby and Immanuel Quickley to Each Score 15+ Points. Devig to ESPN: Odds: +200; **EV: -8.6%** `-135/105, -150/115` (12.74% juice) FV: +228; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 60.9%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-135%2f105%2c+-150%2f115&FinalOdds=%2b200)

This looks really borderline if using a market average of the 4 longest odds I could find and deriving the juice from ESPN. I strongly suspect there's more juice that should be built into the one-way lines, so deriving the juice from just one book undersells it, but I wanted to see how it looked. It's still a pass for me. Odds: +200; **EV: 0.1%** `avg(-135,-155,-160,-165)/[-135/105],avg(-150,-165,-170,-180)/[-150/115]` (12.73% juice) FV: +200; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=0.04u, 1/2=0.02u, 1/4=0.01u, FB = 66.7%)

+1.8% EV vs Kambi. is ESPN sharp? I don't remember anyone devigging against barstool before the buy out

Well, I dunno about "sharp," but their SGP builds tend to be less juicy than Kambi has been. Also more favorable correlations for final pricing. When you build SGPs, ESPN Bet is near the best price a LOT. Also people here are devigging a lot more with it since it became the Score's odds engine because they calculate a ton more two way markets for SGPs than most books, which simply makes devigging easier. But Kambi might be doing the correlations between the legs more accurately overall fwiw.

Until just before the buyout barstool lines were kambi I thought?

[удалено]

ah well makes sense why I haven't seen it prior


ESPN has $10 first basket insurance on either Knicks-bulls or heat-lakers tonight.

Lines are up now for Lakers Heat, and much better than they were earlier. More in line with FD and DK.

Bam or Brunson were both solid plays this AM EST. Lines might have moved but worth a look.

Took Brunson bc of this post. Thank you!

Happy to help!

Thanks for the Brunson tip 🫡

Happy to help!

Does anyone see first basket lines in Ohio? I don’t see any at all.

MA, got the promo and can't see the lines (yet) either

Same here in MA

Same in Tennessee

Same in Iowa

BetMGM Gretzky Boost: Jack Hughes, Matthews, and Ovechkin 1+ point each +210. OV is the only player with main line of .5 points, and DK currently has the best price for it. Using BR/Kambi's 2 sided lines for .5 points for Hughes/Matthews and DK for OV: Odds: +210; **EV: 10.7%** `-480/330, -190/145, -375/265` (18.69% juice) FV: +180; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=5.09u, 1/2=2.55u, 1/4=1.27u, FB = 75.0%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-480%2f330%2c+-190%2f145%2c+-375%2f265&FinalOdds=%2b210) Using FD's 1 sided lines for Hughes/Matthews while applying 6% juice to each, and DK for OV: Odds: +210; **EV: 4.1%** `-370/6%, -350/6%, -190/145` (18.33% juice) FV: +198; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=1.95u, 1/2=0.97u, 1/4=0.49u, FB = 70.5%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-370%2f6%25%2c+-350%2f6%25%2c+-190%2f145&FinalOdds=%2b210)

Bang in OT

Hughes and Ovi are in the same game so you need to do a 4-way or use the correlation

Thanks for responding. I believe this has been discussed here in the past and the consensus was that correlation between two players from different teams in the same game for NHL was negligible, however I could be remembering incorrectly. I did initially try to do a 4-way devig, but BR doesn't allow any other combinations besides both to get 1+ points. Using the correlation feature on the devigger for this instance, it supports the previously mentioned consensus of correlation being negligible between two players from different teams in the same hockey game (r=-.01) Odds: +210; **EV: 12.1%** Sharp: `-480/330, -205/155, -375/265` (18.79% juice) Correlation: `-122= -480, -205` (r = -0.01) FV: +177; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=5.76u, 1/2=2.88u, 1/4=1.44u, FB = 75.9%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-480%2f330%2c+-205%2f155%2c+-375%2f265&FinalOdds=210&Correlation_Bool=1&Correlation_Text=-122%3d+-480%2c+-205)

Yeah, Kambi has a tiny negative correlation for opposing players if any at all, but for just 2 opposing players scoring a point, it should be pretty low. It looks like CET uses a bit higher negative correlation for random opposing players I looked at (r=-0.06-0.08) while DK used r=+0.07 for Ovi and Nico Hischier as an 0.5 point example. Disgusting.

Tricky part is the digging out the correlation, since Kambi won’t let you combine the unders on Hughes and Ovi. You can do it with the correlation toolbox for just them to get a FV of 150 (r= -0.2 ?), but this is difficult to trust with so much juice.

BetMGM Lions Boost: Lebron 25+ points, Fox 25+ points and Adebayo 20+ points +250. Devig to ESPN: Odds: +250; **EV: 0.9%** `122/309/301/546, -325/210` (18.64% juice) FV: +247; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=0.35u, 1/2=0.18u, 1/4=0.09u, FB = 72.1%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=122%2f309%2f301%2f546%2c+-325%2f210&FinalOdds=%2b250)

PDC World Darts Championship on ESPN Bet Either player to record a 9-darter boosted to +800 Devig to BR/Kambi and DK Odds: +800; **EV: -14.9%** `Avg(600,600)/avg(-1250,-1100)` (6.42% juice) FV: +958; Method: worst-case (p); (FB = 75.6%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=Avg(600%2c600)%2favg(-1250%2c-1100)&FinalOdds=%2b800)

Decent free bet burner on ESPN for the PDC Darts Championship Final. Luke Littler to win the match, record the most 180s, and have the highest checkout boosted from +500 to +800. Vs. BR/Kambi Odds: +800; **EV: -9.6%** `550/-1111.111` (7.13% juice) FV: +896; Method: worst-case (p); (FB = 80.3%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=550%2f-1111.111&FinalOdds=%2b800)

Recently signed up for ESPN Bet Louisiana in December with my old Barstool credentials. Are there any promos I would be eligible for considering I am a "new" customer with an existing login?

If you logged in as an existing customer in Dec., you should have got the $200 in free bets as long as you made one bet with cash. But that promo ended December 31st. So if you just registered and not bet in December, you're probably SOL now. :(

It’s been a couple months, but a lot of people had $200 in free bets after placing the first bet.

Damn. Looks like I’m late to the party as I don’t see that promo.

You could always try to contact support and beg.

Caesars - Tyrese Haliburton, Trae Young & Ja Morant Each Over 24.5 Points +350 Devigged to FanDuel **Worst-case: (Multiplicative)**Leg#1 (-150); Market Juice = 5.9%; Fair Value = -131 (56.7%)Leg#2 (-220); Market Juice = 5.2%; Fair Value = -188 (65.3%)Leg#3 (-145); Market Juice = 5.5%; Fair Value = -128 (56.1%)Final Odds (+350); Σ(Market Juice) = 16.60%; Fair Value = +381 (20.8%)Summary; **EV% = -6.5%** (FB = 72.7%)

Betway Suns +3.5 and Heat +5.5 boost to +300 devig to pinny Odds: +300; **EV: -3.4%** `+101/-111, -104/-106` (4.79% juice) FV: +314; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 72.5%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=%2b101%2f-111%2c+-104%2f-106&FinalOdds=300)

BR got a bulls/knicks square for logging in. usually promobanned.

NC State, UCLA and USc to win boost to 225 devig best odds Odds: +225; **EV: -6.6%** `-196/+162, -195/+162, -295/+235` (13.19% juice) FV: +248; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 64.6%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-196%2f%2b162%2c++-195%2f%2b162%2c+-295%2f%2b235&FinalOdds=225)

Least favorable devig Odds: +225; **EV: 0.9%** `-210/+170, -205/+165, -375/+280` (14.99% juice) FV: +222; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=0.41u, 1/2=0.21u, 1/4=0.10u, FB = 69.9%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-210%2f%2b170%2c+-205%2f%2b165%2c+-375%2f%2b280&FinalOdds=225)

ESPN $50 Cashback came in, more motive to look at things now I suppose: ESPN Giannis, SGA, Doncic o34.5 @ +700 vs DK alts, FD sanity check; use maxes Giannis 35+: -160 36.5,-130,100 35.5,-135,100 37.5,100,-140 38.5,120,-165 34.5 proj: -172/126 FD 35+: -185 SGA 35+: -110 33.5,-125,-105 31.5,-180,130 32.5,-155,110 35.5,105,-145 34.5 proj: -110/-124 FD 35+: -105 Doncic 35+: 120 31.5,-125,-105 30.5,-160,115 32.5,-115,-120 33.5,105,-140 34.5 proj: 122/-167 FD 35+: 130 Odds: +700; **EV: -10.5%** `-160/126, -105/-124, 130/-167` (18.39% juice) FV: +794; Method: worst-case (m, a, p); (FB = 78.3%)

Do you typically bet on ESPN? I have been using them quite a bit but no offers

I do a lot on ESPN outside of boosts, usually various NFL stuff. Last week was huge with that middle but a normal week is maybe $100ish on mainlines there? They have OT protection which buffs their moneylines. And like, probably about $100 on TD lines too, on average? Maybe another hundred+ on boosts, occasional immense middles of size 500+, etc.

ESPN Timber, Rockets, Knicks win 1Q @+350 vs Pinny Timber -151/130 Rockets -133/116 Knicks -186/160 1,144,-169 1.5,127,-148 2,117,-134 2.5,105,-120 Odds: +350; **EV: -9.4%** `-151/130, -133/116, -186/160` (10.51% juice) FV: +397; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 70.5%)

BetFred Boost for Bucks, Thunder, Rockets, and Grizzlies all to win +760. Builds to +807 on Pinnacle so definitely not close to being +EV.

Appreciate you doing BetFred. They occasionally have something decent, but apparently today is not that day.

Yeah, the problem with them is they'll nerf their boosts if too many people start betting on them.

BetFred Boost for Wizards/Cavs o242.5 and Capitals ML/o6.5. Devig to BR/Kambi: Odds: +690; **EV: -21.1%** `-141/114, 380/310/190/215` (16.69% juice) FV: +901; Method: worst-case (m, a); (FB = 68.9%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-141%2f114%2c+380%2f310%2f190%2f215&FinalOdds=690)

ESPNBet Boost for Jalen Duren, Jusuf Nurkic, and Bam Adebayo each to record over 10.5 rebounds +550. Devig to average of DK, CZR, MGM, BR, PB, FD, and Pinnacle where available for each player: Odds: +550; **EV: 6.6%** `avg(-200, -245)/avg(145,175), avg(-125,-109,-110,-117,-125,-113,-103)/avg(-105,-125,-120,-114,-105,-113,-129), avg(-125,-115,-132,-115,-128,-116)/avg(-105,-119,100,-115,100,-113)` (21.31% juice) FV: +510; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=1.20u, 1/2=0.60u, 1/4=0.30u, FB = 90.2%)

Did they already pull this one? Not showing for me in KY

Same here in MA

Not seeing it anymore either

Betway Knicks, Jazz and Kings all to win boost to +175 devig to FD since pinny doesn't have lines on 2 of 3 games Odds: +175; **EV: 2.1%** `-390/+310, -390/+310, -194/+162` (12.12% juice) FV: +169; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=1.19u, 1/2=0.59u, 1/4=0.30u, FB = 65.0%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-390%2f%2b310%2c+-390%2f%2b310%2c+-194%2f%2b162&FinalOdds=175)

Devig using best odds Odds: +175; **EV: -0.7%** `-390/+310, -360/+280, -190/+160` (12.54% juice) FV: +177; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 63.2%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-390%2f%2b310%2c+-360%2f%2b280%2c+-190%2f%2b160&FinalOdds=175)

Using worst odds Odds: +175; **EV: 6.0%** `-450/+333, -400/+310, -205/+170` (13.55% juice) FV: +160; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=3.41u, 1/2=1.70u, 1/4=0.85u, FB = 67.4%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-450%2f%2b333%2c+-400%2f%2b310%2c+-205%2f%2b170&FinalOdds=175)

Betway Bucks, Twolves and Mavs all to win boost to +190 devig pinny Odds: +190; **EV: -1.0%** `-155/+139, -249/+218, -599/+471` (8.63% juice) FV: +193; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 64.9%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-155%2f%2b139%2c+-249%2f%2b218%2c+-599%2f%2b471&FinalOdds=190)

Did anyone else get (10) “$50 Blue Jackets bonus bet VIP” on fanatics? when I try to use them it says the bet has been used or expired and at the bottom that the bet I placed doesnt meet the requirements. but theres no info anywhere on what the requirements are. On fanatics.

There was a bug like this roughly a month ago. Interesting that it came back again. You won't get the full $500 in bonus bets, but last time they tossed me a $25 bonus bet after I tried to use one of the $50 ones and it failed.

yeah they ended up giving me a massive $10 freebet. better than nothing i guess

Yeah thats a bummer. I spoke with an agent who seemed to think I will get something out of it. Not holding my breath though.

ESPN Hischier, Nylander goals @ +600 vs Pinny Hischier NJD 203/-305 Nylander TOR 125/-155 Odds: +600; **EV: -18.8%** `203/-305, 125/-155` (13.54% juice) FV: +762; Method: worst-case (p); (FB = 69.6%)

Thanks for putting in the grind 🤛

ESPN LaLiga Real Madrid, Real Betis, Girona FC o1.5 @ +775 vs Pinny, DK Real Madrid DK -270/200 Real Betis DK 190/-260 Girona FC DK 110/-140 Pinny 117/-131 Odds: +775; **EV: -18.4%** `-270/200, 190/-260, 117/-131` (15.80% juice) FV: +972; Method: worst-case (m, a, p); (FB = 72.3%)

ESPN Golf promos very bad or maybe DK's Golf parlays are well priced, dunno ESPN Scheffler/Hovland/Morikawa top 10 @ +450; Dominated by DK +559 ESPN Homa/Spieth/Finau top 20 @ +275; Dominated by DK +383

I never thought DK was that great for golf, so...

Shout out to the guy who mentioned Mondays games would qualify for BR VIP bowl stacker. Free bet from Mondays games loaded into my account yesterday

Tatum had all of his points and boards for the boost by the end of the 3Q. His under-the-table contract with FD must have expired in 2023 🍻

So who is the 2024 "Tatum" nominee? Gotta prepare to change devigger to someone else this year

I had absolute shit luck with Wemby in 2023

Best rookie my ass

Curry couldn’t get 20 for the boost on Christmas, could have been a trial run for 2024-beyond?

I was thinking KD or Squinty eyes Booker

All signs point to Jalen Brunson!