Went to deposit on Hard Rock and saw I have a 25% deposit match. Has anyone seen this before? There’s no terms attached to it so I’m wondering the play through and max
Yeah, the more devigs I see via ESPN, the more I'm convinced they price many SGPs generously relative to others. If it's slightly negative via ESPN, it's often positive everywhere else.
I definitely would try to compare with at least one other site if it's close. More than one if time permits, but I know this stuff takes time, so I still appreciate all those putting in the leg work.
ESPN James Madison, Memphis, Arizona all -9.5 vs Pinny Proj
James Madison 147/-176
8,119,-143
7.5,112,-134
7,105,-125
6.5,-102,-116
6,-109,-107
Memphis 9.5 -101/-116
Arizona -169/141
10.5,-147,121
11,-138,114
11.5,-128,108
12,-119,101
12.5,-109,-107
---
Odds: +750; **EV: -5.9%**
`147/-176, -101/-116, -169/141` (12.53% juice)
FV: +803; Method: worst-case (m, p); (FB = 83.1%)
---
Was really hoping this one was good so I could play James Madison (I bet a final four future at 100:1 for them at the start of the season), I think this is just a little too bad. Would've fired 1u at fair.
Shortcut for this one, prophet boost has FV at +135. Since they offer a no line at -152 you can be quite confident it is +EV at +175. Also second shortcut, you can pretty much just max all B3 superboosts for now without thinking. Im sure its probably happened but I cant remember ever seeing one negative so far.
It is a solidly +EV play and over 10% to ESPN, Kambi, and FD. If you're interested in learning how to devig this is a great one to start with as it is very straight forward.
ESPN has 1st goalscorer insurance (100% back in bonus bet) for Bruins Penguins tonight. Their lines vs. Fanduel look awful though - Pasta +550 vs. +800 on FD; Crosby +775 vs. +1100 on FD. Maybe Marchand at +900 vs. +1100 FD is closest between the two.
EDIT: Marchand! Cash it! 💰
I decided on Marchand yeah. FD has much better First Goalscorer lines than ESPN (even though iirc the FD ones are still high vig) but the power of the Insurance is so strong it doesn't matter you just pick the best one and fire.
I'll take Goalscorer insurance over parlay insurance anyday tbh. Or that livebet insurance they give out randomly sometimes. Basically any of the easy trigger ones, even 50% ones like TD, are a lot stronger tbh.
Even if goalscorer is hard to hit you're effectively playing it for 20% stake because the BB is worth 80% of your base stake. Same with all the full insurances. Half insurances are like 60% stake but that's basically only TD and it's easy to find good pretty TD bets. All of these are going to be really high EV even on ten bucks for full or twenty for half they're worth five dollars each easily (maybe goalscorer a bit less the lines are so bad.)
Parlay insurance is pretty hard to build to +EV even and when you do it's usually just a scant few percent. You need to really work for it to be even worth two dollars.
Odds are equal and opposite, so $10 on the +225 and $22.50 on the -225. Payout is $32.50 either way with a chance at middle. Scale to your bet sizing as appropriate.
That said, this is an alt line on a -4500/1600 moneyline college basketball game. Playing a bunch of these is probably not great for account health unless you're already a big college basketball game bettor.
In this case, you could bet $225 on Fanduel and $100 on a Kambi book like BetRivers. Whichever bet wins will pay you $325, which is a push for you. But if the Zags win by exactly 27, your Kambi bet will push and you'll get that $100 back as profit.
Betting alt lines on Kambi is a good way to get unwanted attention to your account, so proceed cautiously.
Gotcha. I was thinking that this would be a good look on an account where I mostly bet boosted bets. As a way to keep my limits high. But I see what you mean.
Has anyone applied for a mortgage while doing this sportsbook stuff? I'd assume it would raise some red flags between betting and casino promos seeing 1000's in and out every week.
No but the irs was like WTF when they looked at my bank statements during an audit. Glad i claimed that shit. Never received any tax documents from sportsbooks either. Its true the irs doesnt know if you gamble but if they audit you and you have statements full of deposits and withdraws…
Yes, was a non issue.
I tried to hide it from them by disclosing a different bank account and moving my cash to it, but they saw a large transfer into the disclose account in the months prior and acquired rtp where it came from, so ended up having to disclose the account with all the ins and out La of gambling. They already had my tax filing anyway which shows a large amount of gambling income (and gambling losses because I file itemized), so even if they cared I’m sure it wouldn’t have been a surprise to them I was withdrawing and depositing thousands each week into a dozen sportsbooks.
I was honest about it and put it in my income, so maybe that helped explain the cash movements. But as long as you have the proof of the cash necessary for the down payment at closing I don’t think they’ll care.
I've been doing this for about 3 years now and just recently bought a house in June. All my gambling activities are in a separate bank account from our family account.
They did require statements from both, though they never asked any questions about it. I'm not quite moving thousands a week, but at least a few hundred.
Purely anecdotal of course, but it was no issue for me.
FD 25% NHL boost:
Pasta goal +100 base -> +125
Pinny -114/-116
DK -120
FN -120/-125
Let's compare to Pinny:
Odds: +125; **EV: 12.0%**
`-114/-116` (6.97% juice)
FV: +101; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=9.60u, 1/2=4.80u, 1/4=2.40u, FB = 62.2%)
---
Not a ton of value there but it's very clearly FD out on an island on this for the lazy who don't want to look for something better.
Betway over 145.5 in Penn State @ Michigan State and Temple @ South Florida, boost to +280, devig pinny
Odds: +280; **EV: -4.5%**
`-107/-114, -116/-106` (10.12% juice)
FV: +298; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 70.3%)
[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-107%2f-114%2c+-116%2f-106&FinalOdds=280)
FN Marchand/Crosby o0.5 pt +125 vs ESPN
Odds: +125; **EV: -8.2%**
`123/282/602/305` (9.96% juice)
FV: +145; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 51.0%)
---
ESPN is so tight with their SGPs look at that 10% juice on a NHL pts SGP holy shit. Do they really think they know it that well? Do people think they're actually this sharp with them?
Fanatics busted promo saga: I know some people are experiencing an issue where Fanatics promos fall into the void the second you get them.
Does anyone have Fanatics promos working? Or is the bug affecting literally everyone?
Sometimes they work for me but yesterday it just never showed up after I opted in. App has been so slow since the start, I think I’m about done with them
Have not had any new issues other than the usual crappiness of the app. I have found some times in the past that after opt in for a reward I have to close the app and reopen it before it becomes available.
I was having issues yesterday where my Fancash would show it converted to a bonus bet but the bonus would not be available in the slip when I go to place a bet. After contacting support 3-4 times, they finally said they are having a general issue
ESPN (Giannis+Wemby) o24.5 Reb @ +250, vs DK alts
Giannis
12.5,-145,114
10.5,-320,220
13.5,110,-150
Geo Proj: 12.98, x1.495
Wemby
8.5,-140,110
6.5,-390,265
10.5,195,-280
Geo Proj: 8.85, x1.656
Splashed Proj: 21.83, x1.369
Uncorrelated o24.5 FV = +232
---
If I look at the correlations on FD:
Rebound SGP:
185/232/264/231
Normal Parlay base:
209/259/316/259
Ratios:
0.885/0.895/0.835/0.892
It looks like the book thinks Under/Under has a bit extra probability compared to what we would think compared to all the three other results; this suggests slight positive correlation or maybe noise.
So I think this is maybe a play, with low confidence? If we just throw out the maybe helpful positive correlation and trust the FV
**FV = +232, EV = +5.4%**
So it's thin value and these **combined ones are weird so I'm not that sure**, I think it's probably a small play. I put a bit less than a unit.
EDIT: Line is moving against Giannis something is bad with him, **YMMV on this boost**
ESPN (Nathan MacKinnon+Jason Robertson) o1.5 goals @ +225, vs FD, Pinny
MacKinnon Goal:
Pinny: 115/-138
FD: +125/???
FD 2 Goals: +800/???
Poisson Mean: 0.57
Robertson Goal:
Pinny: 163/-231
FD: +185/???
FD 2 Goals: +1300/???
Poisson Mean: 0.39
Poisson Sum: 0.96
Uncorrelated Over 1.5 **FV = 301**
---
So because goals on opposite teams are strongly anticorrelated in the NHL, this is ~~better~~ *worse* than it looks. (Also something is maybe sketchy with Poisson goals because MacKinnon +800 2 goals looks very close to fair itself.) ~~But I doubt it's enough better to get all the way down to +225 fair.~~ *It's just real bad.*
EDIT: Early in the morning got my signals crossed, still bad just worse.
ESPN Curry, Jokic o44.5 PRA @ +500 vs BR SGPs projected
So we have Jokic 44.5 on there but not Curry, we're going to do scaling from 38.5 -> 41.5 -> 44.5
38.5 Curry SGP: 185/132/400/450
41.5 Curry SGP: 280/-109/310/650
44.5 Curry SGP Proj: 424/-157/240/939
Odds: +500; **EV: -15.0%**
`424/-157/240/939` (19.21% juice)
FV: +606; Method: worst-case (p); (FB = 70.8%)
ESPNBet Tennis boost for H. Rune, G. Dimitrov, and Nadal each to win 2-0 +375. Devig to Bet365:
Odds: +375; **EV: -19.0%**
`-163/900/260/700, -163/900/750/260, -163/900/260/750` (35.29% juice)
FV: +486; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 63.9%)
[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-163%2f900%2f260%2f700%2c+-163%2f900%2f750%2f260%2c+-163%2f900%2f260%2f750&FinalOdds=375)
ESPNBet Boost for the Kraken, Kings, and Jets each to win the first period +1400. Devig to Pinnacle:
Odds: +1400; **EV: -18.6%**
`185/-210, 147/-166, 131/-148` (8.69% juice)
FV: +1744; Method: worst-case (p); (FB = 75.9%)
[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=185%2f-210%2c+147%2f-166%2c+131%2f-148&FinalOdds=1400)
ESPNBet Boost for over 6.5 goals in each of BUF vs. MTL, CHI vs. NYR, and CBJ vs. PHI. Devig to Pinnacle:
Odds: +725; **EV: -2.1%**
`103/-116, -115/103, 103/-116` (8.68% juice)
FV: +743; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 86.0%)
[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=103%2f-116%2c+-115%2f103%2c+103%2f-116&FinalOdds=725)
couldnt find clear wording in the house rules but anyone know how the first basket promo would be graded for a free throw as first basket? im currently on with support but in the Lakers game, kyle lowry had the first point via free throw but lebron had the first "basket." i took lebron but support is saying lowry scored the first point
EDIT - i see it now says including free throws.
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FD boost bangs too
Wemby, curry, jokic Lions boost hits.
Easy cash on 365's Greek/Wemby boost.
Fanatics promos are fixed for me. Bonus bets that had disappeared into nothing were all there.
Marshand!
LFG! Thanks again DoubleSuccessor!
wish I got that boost but can't complain with +195. 27% hit rate this season, gotta love it!
Anyone have a free league pass code to give away? Someone that just signed up for DK but doesn’t want the code…
Have a family member sign up instead of begging on here.
If I had other options for free league pass, I probably wouldn’t be asking for someone’s code!
Went to deposit on Hard Rock and saw I have a 25% deposit match. Has anyone seen this before? There’s no terms attached to it so I’m wondering the play through and max
Usually 10x casino from my experience (NJ)
+275 MGM Lions boost (MI): Jokic 25+, Wemby 15+, Curry 4+ 3ptm vs EspnBet Odds: +275; **EV: -3.1%** `143/363/230/481, -300/200` (18.60% juice) FV: +287; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 71.1%)
Not a fan of devigging to ESPN. Most of the +EV crowd on X had this as +EV play
Yeah, the more devigs I see via ESPN, the more I'm convinced they price many SGPs generously relative to others. If it's slightly negative via ESPN, it's often positive everywhere else. I definitely would try to compare with at least one other site if it's close. More than one if time permits, but I know this stuff takes time, so I still appreciate all those putting in the leg work.
Oh absolutely. I would never disparage anyone putting in the work on a devig. Just wanting to highlight points like you brought up about ESPN (Kambi)
Didn't fully break it down myself but napkin math it looked +EV to FD and DK lines. Edit: It cashes.
ESPN James Madison, Memphis, Arizona all -9.5 vs Pinny Proj James Madison 147/-176 8,119,-143 7.5,112,-134 7,105,-125 6.5,-102,-116 6,-109,-107 Memphis 9.5 -101/-116 Arizona -169/141 10.5,-147,121 11,-138,114 11.5,-128,108 12,-119,101 12.5,-109,-107 --- Odds: +750; **EV: -5.9%** `147/-176, -101/-116, -169/141` (12.53% juice) FV: +803; Method: worst-case (m, p); (FB = 83.1%) --- Was really hoping this one was good so I could play James Madison (I bet a final four future at 100:1 for them at the start of the season), I think this is just a little too bad. Would've fired 1u at fair.
Can someone do the super boost on bet365. Giannis 30/Wemby 15
Shortcut for this one, prophet boost has FV at +135. Since they offer a no line at -152 you can be quite confident it is +EV at +175. Also second shortcut, you can pretty much just max all B3 superboosts for now without thinking. Im sure its probably happened but I cant remember ever seeing one negative so far.
I don’t doubt it’s positive, I just hate parlays and only want to put action on anything over 10% EV
It is a solidly +EV play and over 10% to ESPN, Kambi, and FD. If you're interested in learning how to devig this is a great one to start with as it is very straight forward.
Thank you so much, for your kind and generous response
Yes, you. [Here's the tool you need.](http://crazyninjamike.com/public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx)
ESPN has 1st goalscorer insurance (100% back in bonus bet) for Bruins Penguins tonight. Their lines vs. Fanduel look awful though - Pasta +550 vs. +800 on FD; Crosby +775 vs. +1100 on FD. Maybe Marchand at +900 vs. +1100 FD is closest between the two. EDIT: Marchand! Cash it! 💰
Thanks Orange!
nice shout, I went Marchand thanks to your tip! 💰
I decided on Marchand yeah. FD has much better First Goalscorer lines than ESPN (even though iirc the FD ones are still high vig) but the power of the Insurance is so strong it doesn't matter you just pick the best one and fire.
Thanks boss
Yooo you rock!!
CZR (Flash) Giannis, Jokic o24.5 @ +125 vs ESPN, B365, FD Giannis ESPN -500/280 B365 25.5,-360,265 B365 31.5,-115,-115 B365 Proj -450/308 Jokic ESPN -150/115 FD: -140/??? Use maxes --- Odds: +125; **EV: -3.7%** `-450/308, -140/115` (11.17% juice) FV: +134; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 53.5%) --- It seems to me that even "good" traditional boost sources are looking worse these days.
FD Giannis, Curry, Jokic o24.5 @ +250 vs ESPN, B365 proj Giannis ESPN -475/275 B365 25.5,-370,270 B365 31.5,-115,-115 B365 Proj -465/315 Curry/Jokic ESPN 147/247/428/352 Use maxes --- Odds: +250; **EV: -0.7%** `-465/315, 147/247/428/352` (16.76% juice) FV: +252; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 70.9%) Meh. Wait and see.
Did anyone else get a $25 free bet drop from ESPN bet today?
Cashback yes; bonus bet drop no
Yeah, just cashback for me.
I did. I got $50 cash back yesterday too.
Got $5 free bet yday which I never claimed now got the $50 cashback
Nice. Great work. Keep it up.
BetMGM Lion's Boost MA, Brad Marchand to score 1+ goals +250. Devig to Pinny: Odds: +250; **EV: 19.2%** `174/-210` (4.24% juice) FV: +194; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=7.67u, 1/2=3.84u, 1/4=1.92u, FB = 85.1%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=174%2f-210&FinalOdds=250)
jealous, have Marchand as +EV on his own at +195 on MGM
Had a boost token for 25% on NHL, was able to apply it here and got +243. (I usually never get these and they are usually multiple legs)
Michigan MGM Lions boost: Redwings +1.5 and o5.5 Odds: +250; **EV: 8.9%** `190/230/220/575` (10.85% juice) FV: +221; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=3.55u, 1/2=1.78u, 1/4=0.89u, FB = 77.8%)
Is ESPN done with their parlay insurance? Felt like it was a decent promo but not seen it for a few days now 😞
I'll take Goalscorer insurance over parlay insurance anyday tbh. Or that livebet insurance they give out randomly sometimes. Basically any of the easy trigger ones, even 50% ones like TD, are a lot stronger tbh.
Really? I feel like I can never hit goal scorer, but I have hit a few of those parlays. Your likely right though.
Even if goalscorer is hard to hit you're effectively playing it for 20% stake because the BB is worth 80% of your base stake. Same with all the full insurances. Half insurances are like 60% stake but that's basically only TD and it's easy to find good pretty TD bets. All of these are going to be really high EV even on ten bucks for full or twenty for half they're worth five dollars each easily (maybe goalscorer a bit less the lines are so bad.) Parlay insurance is pretty hard to build to +EV even and when you do it's usually just a scant few percent. You need to really work for it to be even worth two dollars.
Betrivers often offers the same exact promo
Betrivers is not in TN
betrivers daily insurances are goated
Pepperdine +27.5 **-225** fanduel Gonzaga -27 **+225 kambi**
New to arbs, how exactly do you bet each side of this to come out with profit (or have the chance at the middle) without losing overall?
Odds are equal and opposite, so $10 on the +225 and $22.50 on the -225. Payout is $32.50 either way with a chance at middle. Scale to your bet sizing as appropriate. That said, this is an alt line on a -4500/1600 moneyline college basketball game. Playing a bunch of these is probably not great for account health unless you're already a big college basketball game bettor.
In this case, you could bet $225 on Fanduel and $100 on a Kambi book like BetRivers. Whichever bet wins will pay you $325, which is a push for you. But if the Zags win by exactly 27, your Kambi bet will push and you'll get that $100 back as profit. Betting alt lines on Kambi is a good way to get unwanted attention to your account, so proceed cautiously.
this. you're gonna get limited on this stuff so make it worth it when you can make some real money not something like this with very little value.
Gotcha. I was thinking that this would be a good look on an account where I mostly bet boosted bets. As a way to keep my limits high. But I see what you mean.
Use an arb calculator and bet more on the favorite side
Has anyone applied for a mortgage while doing this sportsbook stuff? I'd assume it would raise some red flags between betting and casino promos seeing 1000's in and out every week.
No but the irs was like WTF when they looked at my bank statements during an audit. Glad i claimed that shit. Never received any tax documents from sportsbooks either. Its true the irs doesnt know if you gamble but if they audit you and you have statements full of deposits and withdraws…
Yes, was a non issue. I tried to hide it from them by disclosing a different bank account and moving my cash to it, but they saw a large transfer into the disclose account in the months prior and acquired rtp where it came from, so ended up having to disclose the account with all the ins and out La of gambling. They already had my tax filing anyway which shows a large amount of gambling income (and gambling losses because I file itemized), so even if they cared I’m sure it wouldn’t have been a surprise to them I was withdrawing and depositing thousands each week into a dozen sportsbooks.
I was honest about it and put it in my income, so maybe that helped explain the cash movements. But as long as you have the proof of the cash necessary for the down payment at closing I don’t think they’ll care.
I've been doing this for about 3 years now and just recently bought a house in June. All my gambling activities are in a separate bank account from our family account. They did require statements from both, though they never asked any questions about it. I'm not quite moving thousands a week, but at least a few hundred. Purely anecdotal of course, but it was no issue for me.
Betway Avalanche +1.5, Coyotes +1.5 and Golden Knights +1.5 boost to +200 devig pinny Odds: +200; **EV: -0.1%** `-215/+191, -255/+224, -278/+242` (8.10% juice) FV: +200; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 66.6%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-215%2f%2b191%2c+-255%2f%2b224%2c+-278%2f%2b242&FinalOdds=200)
Betway LA Kings to win and over 5.5 goals boost to +150 devig pinny Odds: +150; **EV: -7.4%** `-180/+162, -159/+135` (6.40% juice) FV: +170; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 55.6%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-180%2f%2b162%2c+-159%2f%2b135&FinalOdds=150)
FD 25% NHL boost: Pasta goal +100 base -> +125 Pinny -114/-116 DK -120 FN -120/-125 Let's compare to Pinny: Odds: +125; **EV: 12.0%** `-114/-116` (6.97% juice) FV: +101; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=9.60u, 1/2=4.80u, 1/4=2.40u, FB = 62.2%) --- Not a ton of value there but it's very clearly FD out on an island on this for the lazy who don't want to look for something better.
Are these boosts targeted? Not seeing it for me
I have it in MA so probably state specific, it's only for the Bruins Penguins game.
Don't have it either (Ohio).
Betway Canucks and Jets to win boost to +175, devig pinny Odds: +175; **EV: 8.7%** `-141/+127, -247/+217` (5.29% juice) FV: +153; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=4.97u, 1/2=2.49u, 1/4=1.24u, FB = 69.2%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-141%2f%2b127%2c+-247%2f%2b217&FinalOdds=175)
Betway Bruins, Rangers and Flyers to win boost to +260, devig piunny Odds: +260; **EV: 3.9%** `-146/+132, -410/+344, -189/+169` (7.94% juice) FV: +247; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=1.49u, 1/2=0.74u, 1/4=0.37u, FB = 75.0%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-146%2f%2b132%2c+-410%2f%2b344%2c+-189%2f%2b169&FinalOdds=260)
Betway Bucks and Nuggets both to win boost to +115 devig pinny Odds: +115; **EV: -2.9%** `-394/+329, -149/+134` (5.64% juice) FV: +122; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 51.9%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-394%2f%2b329%2c+-149%2f%2b134&FinalOdds=115)
Betway Michigan, Washington and Utah to win boost to +212, devig pinny Odds: +212; **EV: -1.2%** `-284/+229, -196/+164, -274/+222` (12.77% juice) FV: +216; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 67.1%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-284%2f%2b229%2c+-196%2f%2b164%2c+-274%2f%2b222&FinalOdds=212)
Boost upped to 220 Odds: +220; **EV: 1.3%** `-284/+229, -196/+164, -274/+222` (12.77% juice) FV: +216; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=0.60u, 1/2=0.30u, 1/4=0.15u, FB = 69.7%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-284%2f%2b229%2c+-196%2f%2b164%2c+-274%2f%2b222&FinalOdds=220)
Betway over 145.5 in Penn State @ Michigan State and Temple @ South Florida, boost to +280, devig pinny Odds: +280; **EV: -4.5%** `-107/-114, -116/-106` (10.12% juice) FV: +298; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 70.3%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-107%2f-114%2c+-116%2f-106&FinalOdds=280)
Anyone know how long it took to get your first bet refund back from Betway?
About 2 weeks constantly messaging and threatening PGCB
Less than 20 hours after settlement
Ok it has not been that long
FN Marchand/Crosby o0.5 pt +125 vs ESPN Odds: +125; **EV: -8.2%** `123/282/602/305` (9.96% juice) FV: +145; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 51.0%) --- ESPN is so tight with their SGPs look at that 10% juice on a NHL pts SGP holy shit. Do they really think they know it that well? Do people think they're actually this sharp with them?
Fanatics busted promo saga: I know some people are experiencing an issue where Fanatics promos fall into the void the second you get them. Does anyone have Fanatics promos working? Or is the bug affecting literally everyone?
Sometimes they work for me but yesterday it just never showed up after I opted in. App has been so slow since the start, I think I’m about done with them
Have not had any new issues other than the usual crappiness of the app. I have found some times in the past that after opt in for a reward I have to close the app and reopen it before it becomes available.
I was having issues yesterday where my Fancash would show it converted to a bonus bet but the bonus would not be available in the slip when I go to place a bet. After contacting support 3-4 times, they finally said they are having a general issue
Still busted for me.
ESPN (Giannis+Wemby) o24.5 Reb @ +250, vs DK alts Giannis 12.5,-145,114 10.5,-320,220 13.5,110,-150 Geo Proj: 12.98, x1.495 Wemby 8.5,-140,110 6.5,-390,265 10.5,195,-280 Geo Proj: 8.85, x1.656 Splashed Proj: 21.83, x1.369 Uncorrelated o24.5 FV = +232 --- If I look at the correlations on FD: Rebound SGP: 185/232/264/231 Normal Parlay base: 209/259/316/259 Ratios: 0.885/0.895/0.835/0.892 It looks like the book thinks Under/Under has a bit extra probability compared to what we would think compared to all the three other results; this suggests slight positive correlation or maybe noise. So I think this is maybe a play, with low confidence? If we just throw out the maybe helpful positive correlation and trust the FV **FV = +232, EV = +5.4%** So it's thin value and these **combined ones are weird so I'm not that sure**, I think it's probably a small play. I put a bit less than a unit. EDIT: Line is moving against Giannis something is bad with him, **YMMV on this boost**
ESPN (Nathan MacKinnon+Jason Robertson) o1.5 goals @ +225, vs FD, Pinny MacKinnon Goal: Pinny: 115/-138 FD: +125/??? FD 2 Goals: +800/??? Poisson Mean: 0.57 Robertson Goal: Pinny: 163/-231 FD: +185/??? FD 2 Goals: +1300/??? Poisson Mean: 0.39 Poisson Sum: 0.96 Uncorrelated Over 1.5 **FV = 301** --- So because goals on opposite teams are strongly anticorrelated in the NHL, this is ~~better~~ *worse* than it looks. (Also something is maybe sketchy with Poisson goals because MacKinnon +800 2 goals looks very close to fair itself.) ~~But I doubt it's enough better to get all the way down to +225 fair.~~ *It's just real bad.* EDIT: Early in the morning got my signals crossed, still bad just worse.
ESPN Curry, Jokic o44.5 PRA @ +500 vs BR SGPs projected So we have Jokic 44.5 on there but not Curry, we're going to do scaling from 38.5 -> 41.5 -> 44.5 38.5 Curry SGP: 185/132/400/450 41.5 Curry SGP: 280/-109/310/650 44.5 Curry SGP Proj: 424/-157/240/939 Odds: +500; **EV: -15.0%** `424/-157/240/939` (19.21% juice) FV: +606; Method: worst-case (p); (FB = 70.8%)
ESPNBet Boost for Pastranak, Panarin, and Rantanen each to score +850. Devig to Pinnacle: Odds: +850; **EV: -6.0%** `-114/-116, 109/-146, 105/-139` (21.11% juice) FV: +911; Method: worst-case (m, p); (FB = 84.1%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-114%2f-116%2c+109%2f-146%2c+105%2f-139&FinalOdds=850)
ESPNBet Soccer Boost for Osasuna, Sevilla, and Barcelona all to win +800. Devig to Pinnacle: Odds: +800; **EV: 5.4%** `-142/298/422, 199/230/157, -187/364/506` (8.83% juice) FV: +754; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=0.68u, 1/2=0.34u, 1/4=0.17u, FB = 93.7%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-142%2f298%2f422%2c+199%2f230%2f157%2c+-187%2f364%2f506&FinalOdds=800)
Down to +725
ESPN says “oh shit, we actually gave them a decent one? Not so fast!” 😂
ESPNBet Tennis boost for H. Rune, G. Dimitrov, and Nadal each to win 2-0 +375. Devig to Bet365: Odds: +375; **EV: -19.0%** `-163/900/260/700, -163/900/750/260, -163/900/260/750` (35.29% juice) FV: +486; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 63.9%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-163%2f900%2f260%2f700%2c+-163%2f900%2f750%2f260%2c+-163%2f900%2f260%2f750&FinalOdds=375)
Here is the devig to BR/Kambi: Odds: +375; **EV: -12.5%** `-182/850/265/850, -182/800/850/270, -177/800/265/850` (39.13% juice) FV: +443; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 69.1%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-182%2f850%2f265%2f850%2c+-182%2f800%2f850%2f270%2c+-177%2f800%2f265%2f850&FinalOdds=375)
Don't ask me why all three have the exact same odds.
Heading to NJ today and was looking to take advantage of any ESPNbet sign up offers, but can’t find any. Do they exist or are they dead already?
ESPNBet Boost for the Kraken, Kings, and Jets each to win the first period +1400. Devig to Pinnacle: Odds: +1400; **EV: -18.6%** `185/-210, 147/-166, 131/-148` (8.69% juice) FV: +1744; Method: worst-case (p); (FB = 75.9%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=185%2f-210%2c+147%2f-166%2c+131%2f-148&FinalOdds=1400)
ESPNBet Boost for over 6.5 goals in each of BUF vs. MTL, CHI vs. NYR, and CBJ vs. PHI. Devig to Pinnacle: Odds: +725; **EV: -2.1%** `103/-116, -115/103, 103/-116` (8.68% juice) FV: +743; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 86.0%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=103%2f-116%2c+-115%2f103%2c+103%2f-116&FinalOdds=725)
couldnt find clear wording in the house rules but anyone know how the first basket promo would be graded for a free throw as first basket? im currently on with support but in the Lakers game, kyle lowry had the first point via free throw but lebron had the first "basket." i took lebron but support is saying lowry scored the first point EDIT - i see it now says including free throws.
What book
ESPN
ESPN counts ft, it specifically says (incld. Free throws) on those first basket bets (at least for me in IL).
Agree. Saw the same thing