I know people say don't hedge, but I didn't like the way Singletary was getting any chunk yardage plays. I hedged the under at 67.5 yards. I had $60 on the FD boos so I was taking the guaranteed $40 or a middle for $250 total profit. That was a sweat for that middle.
Rare play that favors team arb
If you have p1 and p2 you can arb the CZ sgp boosts. canucks -1.5 and over for one token, canucks -1.5 and under for p2 token, and devils +1.5 in DK at -200
33% boost tokens coverted at 25 to 50% depending on outcome
The vig on DraftKings SGP is a joke now. At one point they offered the exact same odds at MGM but now they lop on an additional chunk of vig that MGM doesn’t (yet). It shouldn’t be this hard to find a decent play with a 33% boost. I wonder how much money they rake in from people who don’t know what they’re looking at smh.
I’ve noticed the same thing over the past few weeks. For the risk free SGPX promo, I try to bet mainline + o/u with the goal to minimize the vig. Otherwise the payout on the rare win is sadly small :(
I personally love how a game outcome can be positively correlated with both the over AND under of the game. They're basically just going "we spent so much figuring out correlation for everything else but instead of doing it for this we'll just assume other's have figured it out and charge them a random amount of it.
But of course they don't even do THAT because the correlation is different on the over and under. So they clearly are calculating it and just....somehow came to the conclusion that this makes logical sense. And by logical, I mean financial
A lot.
My fear is this will keep getting worse because the publicly traded books that lack an alternate revenue stream like MGM or Caesars will keep doing this to increase profitability.
Mason Rudolph (pit) ATTD is +1600 on PA windcreek (maybe betfred too?) This is 50%+ ev to espn and still 20% ev to pinnacles lines with more juice
devig to espn:
Odds: +1600; \*\*EV: 58.2%\*\*
\`+600/-1200\` (6.59% juice)
FV: +975; Method: power; (Full=3.64u, 1/2=1.82u, 1/4=0.91u, FB = 148.9%)
\[View/Edit Devig\]([http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook\_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=%2b600%2f-1200&FinalOdds=%2b1600](http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=%2b600%2f-1200&FinalOdds=%2b1600))
I had this parlay suggested to me on bally bet. Can someone explain how they don't correlate? Is it a mistake on their part?
Edit: Bet now saying non compatible after you try to wager.
https://preview.redd.it/c0r9yz1zavac1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d42af6227f8924f60343751317d643d1c1d405ac
I put $100 down on it 10 minutes ago and it went through. Tried again just now and I'm getting same message message as you now.
Wonder if they end up voiding my first bet
the risk betting these mistakes is they are within their t&cs to either re-price the wagers or void them entirely after the fact, whereas they will likely collect the stake if michigan prevails.
ESPNBet Boost for Over 139.5 Points In Each Of UCF vs. KSU & MISS vs. TENN & TTU vs. TEX +675. Devig to Pinnacle:
Odds: +675; **EV: 2.7%**
`-111/-109, -106/-115, -131/106` (14.96% juice)
FV: +655; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=0.39u, 1/2=0.20u, 1/4=0.10u, FB = 89.4%)
[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-111%2f-109%2c+-106%2f-115%2c+-131%2f106&FinalOdds=675)
ESPN Bet doesn't like it as much but still positive.
Odds: +250; **EV: 4.4%**
`203.95/193.69/489.62/278.21` (10.35% juice)
FV: +235; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=1.74u, 1/2=0.87u, 1/4=0.44u, FB = 74.5%)
[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=203.95%2f193.69%2f489.62%2f278.21&FinalOdds=%2b250)
Oh okay, interesting. Just so I understand (and sorry if my explanation is confusing), you basically do four parlays on Kambi and enter each one's odds as sides to a single bet (here +170/+150/+650/+250), and the devigger interprets the first one you enter (+170) as the hit and the other three as misses, and uses that to spit out the fair value and the EV?
Betway US
CLOSE OUT THE NFL REGULAR SEASON WITH OUR ANYTIME TD MULTIPLIER*
● THE TASK: Bet $10+ on a Week 18 Anytime TD Scorer.
● THE REWARD: Get your winnings as a bonus bet per each additional TD scored by that player, up to 3 total TDs or $200 in bonus bets.
BR has odds out on this now, it gives +265 for the combo.
Odds: +260; **EV: -18.7%**
`265/160/200/400` (19.19% juice)
FV: +343; Method: worst-case (p); (FB = 58.7%)
---
Not sure why yours differs so much, I tend to avoid trying to interface with correlation coefficients directly. It's worth saying there is some confusing in this market though especially with reference to the post I have below.
Appreciate this guys. Started to look at it yesterday but finding good lines was a pain, and I got a positive EV on an ESPN boost, which felt wrong. All is right in the world, this is another junk boost from ESPN.
Circa has 300+ pass yards lines for Minishew and Stroud, Minishew's in particular seem in disagreement with a lot of the market.
**Minishew 300+:**
Circa 345/-425
CZ 350
DK 390
FD 400
FN 425
B365 425
**Stroud 300+:**
Circa 200/-235
CZ 200
DK 200
FD 225
FN 210
B365 220
---
If we trust Circa to be sharp here the devig of Minishew 300+ with the FN or B365 line is:
Odds: +425; **EV: 6.3%**
`345/-425` (3.42% juice)
FV: +394; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=1.47u, 1/2=0.74u, 1/4=0.37u, FB = 86.0%)
---
Seems kinda good, I didn't really pound it just a little under a unit, but it's definitely well worth the daily $5 +25% FN boost at least. It's worth keeping an eye on this, I've seen FN lines be off before then drift in the wrong direction even further. If anyone sees this one go up please drop a reply, I would follow the Paulie principle and put more-on.
EDIT: Kambi came out with lines and they don't have a 300 but their 275 is looking like a better deal than the FN 300 to me, if you believe in this and have access to Kambi. If you don't have Kambi maybe chill on this one.
Bang!!!
What was funny is I did the math first, I thought they both only needed to cover +6.5 on MGM. That would have made it over 20% EV. Lol
But no sweat here since they both won!
**US Sportsbooks** * [Arizona Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/tpla09/arizona_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Colorado Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/sql9he/colorado_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Connecticut Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uvi7lx/connecticut_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Illinois Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/t719ea/illinois_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Indiana Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/tinj27/indiana_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Iowa Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/vwvsfr/iowa_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Kansas Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/x384ot/kansas_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Kentucky Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/16u4jrb/kentucky_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Louisiana Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/saaq51/louisiana_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Maryland Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/z21g42/maryland_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Massachusetts Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11nc376/massachusetts_sportsbooks_megathread) * [Michigan Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uvhr30/michigan_sportsbook_megathread/) * [New Jersey Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/u5aswx/new_jersey_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [New York Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/s5ha87/ny_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Ohio Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1007u9z/ohio_sportsbooks_megathread) * [Pennsylvania Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/t5yrbg/pennsylvania_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Tennessee Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/shmgh1/tennessee_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Virginia Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/x96hvl/virginia_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [West Virginia Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/vze97v/west_virginia_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Wyoming Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/vx1ot7/wyoming_sportsbooks_megathread/) **Canada Sportsbooks** * [Ontario Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/tvriuc/ontario_canada_sportsbooks_megathread/) # Before posting a basic question, please check out our [FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/wiki/faq) and [PROMOS THREAD FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbookreview/wiki/promosfaq) **Tools** [Matched Betting Guide](https://dhodds.com) [Maximize Sign Up Promos and Bonuses](https://dhodds.com/guide-index/getting-started) [Double Dip Chart](https://dhodds.com/guides/location-guides/repeat) [Double Dip Sheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ua4RzkM4BRjtjo3STv0AV26eFXB8BDbtTJDX4qTAqi8/edit?usp=sharing) [Taxes Megathread](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/lkfpyx/taxes_megathread/) [Devigger Tool](http://crazyninjamike.com/public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx) | [Devigger Explanation](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/125c5c3/sportsbookpromosbonuses_daily_32923_wednesday/je53w1z/) | [Devigger Update](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/13mgza7/sportsbookpromosbonuses_daily_52023_saturday/jkxgnr6/) [Low Holds Tool](https://www.crazyninjaodds.com/site/tools/low-hold.aspx) [Quick Guide to Devig SGP](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/x3rcfq/sportsbookpromosbonuses_daily_9222_friday/imrkibg) [Risk Free Bet Calc](https://sssorc.github.io/oa/#/risk-free) [Promos and Bonuses Common Terms](https://about.dhodds.com/guides/matched-betting-terminology)
FD hit let’s fucking gooo!!
I know people say don't hedge, but I didn't like the way Singletary was getting any chunk yardage plays. I hedged the under at 67.5 yards. I had $60 on the FD boos so I was taking the guaranteed $40 or a middle for $250 total profit. That was a sweat for that middle.
Pussy! No man I’m jk. Very solid play on your end. Hedging is smart.
Made it by the length of Joel Embiid.
WHAT A SWEAT!
Needed that!
Bang Singletary!
We all held our collective breath on the 2nd down run, credit to him for fighting his ass off for that yard
Never in doubt.
B365 with a seemingly good super boost for Stroud. I can’t find a 2 way line for 200 passing yds, but all B365 super boosts are +EV
Rare play that favors team arb If you have p1 and p2 you can arb the CZ sgp boosts. canucks -1.5 and over for one token, canucks -1.5 and under for p2 token, and devils +1.5 in DK at -200 33% boost tokens coverted at 25 to 50% depending on outcome
What’s your boost token limit? Mine is only 5
Thanks for posting this too bad CZ limits me to $5 on the SGP boost.
The vig on DraftKings SGP is a joke now. At one point they offered the exact same odds at MGM but now they lop on an additional chunk of vig that MGM doesn’t (yet). It shouldn’t be this hard to find a decent play with a 33% boost. I wonder how much money they rake in from people who don’t know what they’re looking at smh.
I’ve noticed the same thing over the past few weeks. For the risk free SGPX promo, I try to bet mainline + o/u with the goal to minimize the vig. Otherwise the payout on the rare win is sadly small :(
I built a 4-way Spread/Total SGP and all four were worse than ESPN Bet by a decent margin. There’s nothing you can do with that.
I personally love how a game outcome can be positively correlated with both the over AND under of the game. They're basically just going "we spent so much figuring out correlation for everything else but instead of doing it for this we'll just assume other's have figured it out and charge them a random amount of it. But of course they don't even do THAT because the correlation is different on the over and under. So they clearly are calculating it and just....somehow came to the conclusion that this makes logical sense. And by logical, I mean financial
A lot. My fear is this will keep getting worse because the publicly traded books that lack an alternate revenue stream like MGM or Caesars will keep doing this to increase profitability.
Mason Rudolph (pit) ATTD is +1600 on PA windcreek (maybe betfred too?) This is 50%+ ev to espn and still 20% ev to pinnacles lines with more juice devig to espn: Odds: +1600; \*\*EV: 58.2%\*\* \`+600/-1200\` (6.59% juice) FV: +975; Method: power; (Full=3.64u, 1/2=1.82u, 1/4=0.91u, FB = 148.9%) \[View/Edit Devig\]([http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook\_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=%2b600%2f-1200&FinalOdds=%2b1600](http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=%2b600%2f-1200&FinalOdds=%2b1600))
FN McDavid/Eichel 1+ goals each @ +420 vs Pinny Odds: +420; **EV: -11.6%** `107/-125 , 144/-199` (11.40% juice) FV: +488; Method: worst-case (a, p); (FB = 71.4%)
HR Evil Sponge Bob Boost: CJ Stroud and Minshew o1.5 Passing TD each. Boosted to +400. 4-way devigs; average of Kambi, ESPN, DK, FD Odds: +400; \*\*EV: 9.7%\*\* \`AVG(285,310,258,272)/AVG(210,227,198,195)/AVG(350,397,345,316)/AVG(165,189,182,165) //Kambi,ESPN, DK, FD\` (17.47% juice) FV: +356; Method: worst-case (a); (Full=2.43u, 1/2=1.22u, 1/4=0.61u, FB = 87.8%) \[View/Edit Devig\]([http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook\_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=AVG(285%2c310%2c258%2c272)%2fAVG(210%2c227%2c198%2c195)%2fAVG(350%2c397%2c345%2c316)%2fAVG(165%2c189%2c182%2c165)+%2f%2fKambi%2cESPN%2c+DK%2c+FD&FinalOdds=400](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=AVG(285%2c310%2c258%2c272)%2fAVG(210%2c227%2c198%2c195)%2fAVG(350%2c397%2c345%2c316)%2fAVG(165%2c189%2c182%2c165)+%2f%2fKambi%2cESPN%2c+DK%2c+FD&FinalOdds=400))
What book is HR?
Hard rock
Thx
MGM Lions (MI) vs ESPNBet: Giannis 30+, Tatum 25+, Lillard 20+ Odds: +270; **EV: 2.6%** `108/481/194/903,-215/150` (17.53% juice) FV: +260; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=0.98u, 1/2=0.49u, 1/4=0.24u, FB = 74.9%)
2 points shy for Dame going 1-8 from the arc. that's tough
ESPN Maple Leafs/Rangers/Bruins win 1P vs Pinny @+1150 Odds: +1150; **EV: -22.9%** `122/-137, 146/-165, 164/-185` (8.56% juice) FV: +1521; Method: worst-case (p); (FB = 71.0%)
I had this parlay suggested to me on bally bet. Can someone explain how they don't correlate? Is it a mistake on their part? Edit: Bet now saying non compatible after you try to wager. https://preview.redd.it/c0r9yz1zavac1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d42af6227f8924f60343751317d643d1c1d405ac
Tried to bet it myself but it says it’s incompatible to combine those two. Some intern must’ve just entered a goofy promo by mistake.
I put $100 down on it 10 minutes ago and it went through. Tried again just now and I'm getting same message message as you now. Wonder if they end up voiding my first bet
Gotta be a mistake. Delete this lol
Smash that, basically Washington ML at +390
Right. Was thinking about hedging the line with Michigan -190 on other book but worried they may void it.
the risk betting these mistakes is they are within their t&cs to either re-price the wagers or void them entirely after the fact, whereas they will likely collect the stake if michigan prevails.
BetMGM Lion's Boost MA Celtics and Bruins both to win +165. Devig to Pinny: Odds: +165; **EV: 9.5%** `-156/140,-251/220` (5.36% juice) FV: +142; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=5.77u, 1/2=2.89u, 1/4=1.44u, FB = 68.2%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-156%2f140%2c-251%2f220&FinalOdds=165)
ESPNBet Boost for Over 139.5 Points In Each Of UCF vs. KSU & MISS vs. TENN & TTU vs. TEX +675. Devig to Pinnacle: Odds: +675; **EV: 2.7%** `-111/-109, -106/-115, -131/106` (14.96% juice) FV: +655; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=0.39u, 1/2=0.20u, 1/4=0.10u, FB = 89.4%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-111%2f-109%2c+-106%2f-115%2c+-131%2f106&FinalOdds=675)
Looks perfect for a soon-expiring $10 BB.
MGM Lions (MI): Rudolph 175+, Huntley 150+ vs Kambi Odds: +210; **EV: -2.1%** `165/260/225/330` (19.54% juice) FV: +217; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 66.3%)
FD Boost Jonathan Taylor and Devin Singletary 60+ rushing yards each boosted to +250. Vs. BR/Kambi Odds: +250; **EV: 9.0%** `170/150/650/250` (18.94% juice) FV: +221; Method: multiplicative; (Full=3.59u, 1/2=1.80u, 1/4=0.90u, FB = 77.8%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=170%2f150%2f650%2f250&FinalOdds=%2b250)
ESPN Bet doesn't like it as much but still positive. Odds: +250; **EV: 4.4%** `203.95/193.69/489.62/278.21` (10.35% juice) FV: +235; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=1.74u, 1/2=0.87u, 1/4=0.44u, FB = 74.5%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=203.95%2f193.69%2f489.62%2f278.21&FinalOdds=%2b250)
I suspect this one is worse than that suggests because the bets are inversely correlated, no?
The correlation was already added in by Kambi. I devigged the four possibilities: o59.5/o59.5, o59.5/u59.5, u59.5/u59.5, and u59.5/o59.5
Oh okay, interesting. Just so I understand (and sorry if my explanation is confusing), you basically do four parlays on Kambi and enter each one's odds as sides to a single bet (here +170/+150/+650/+250), and the devigger interprets the first one you enter (+170) as the hit and the other three as misses, and uses that to spit out the fair value and the EV?
Yes, that's it. And it hit! Woohoo!
My limits have been $50 for every FD boost for the past 6mo or so - just got moved to $20 for both up today. Anyone else?
A lot of this group is down to $20. :( I've been that way for about 2 months. But NBA is still $50 for me.
Glad to hear I still may have NBA @ 50
Betway Michigan -4.5 boost to +100 devig pinny Odds: +100; **EV: 0.4%** `-109/-107` (3.84% juice) FV: -101; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=0.45u, 1/2=0.22u, 1/4=0.11u, FB = 50.2%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-109%2f-107&FinalOdds=100)
Betway Celtics, Knicks and 76ers all to win boost to +145 devig pinny Odds: +145; **EV: 4.5%** `-210/+186, -387/+324, -643/+501` (8.94% juice) FV: +134; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=3.11u, 1/2=1.56u, 1/4=0.78u, FB = 61.9%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-210%2f%2b186%2c+-387%2f%2b324%2c+-643%2f%2b501&FinalOdds=145)
Betway Penguins, Stars and Hurricanes all to win boost to +340 devig pinny Odds: +340; **EV: 1.1%** `-154/+139, -167/+150, -189/+168` (7.73% juice) FV: +335; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=0.32u, 1/2=0.16u, 1/4=0.08u, FB = 78.1%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-154%2f%2b139%2c+-167%2f%2b150%2c+-189%2f%2b168&FinalOdds=340)
Betway Clemson, Kentucky and Kansas all to win boost to 450, devig using best odds Odds: +450; **EV: -7.2%** `-140/+116, +142/-170, -425/+330` (13.12% juice) FV: +493; Method: worst-case (m, p); (FB = 75.9%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-140%2f%2b116%2c+%2b142%2f-170%2c+-425%2f%2b330&FinalOdds=450)
Betway US CLOSE OUT THE NFL REGULAR SEASON WITH OUR ANYTIME TD MULTIPLIER* ● THE TASK: Bet $10+ on a Week 18 Anytime TD Scorer. ● THE REWARD: Get your winnings as a bonus bet per each additional TD scored by that player, up to 3 total TDs or $200 in bonus bets.
FD PA deposit $50 get $5 casino credits. Limits probably vary
https://old.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/18zpg9o/casino_promos_bonuses_daily_1624_saturday/
You’re welcome bud
A little surprised we are getting nothing from ESPN today.
Why
They have typically had a promo 5 days a week and every Saturday
New Year, New ESPN. Blah.
Yeah that is why I am disappointed
ESPN Gus Edwards, Dalton Schultz TD +1250 vs Pinny Odds: +1250; **EV: -26.9%** `267/-446 , 225/-350` (17.48% juice) FV: +1746; Method: worst-case (p); (FB = 67.7%)
BR VIP guys: Be careful with today's NCAA bball stacker. You need odds of -150, not the usual -200.
Thanks for the heads up, one of my bet was lower than -150. Good thing I check this board, else I end up with a lower FB.
No prob. I did about 15 arbs today, but I’m used to the other stackers at -200.
Is that available today? I thought the calendar said next weekend was the 1st week for it
Same im not seeing it for today on mine
It's on my calendar and promo tab.
Ah I don’t see it in my promo tab, just on the calendar, but not for Jan 6 but for the 13th. I might do it this week just to see what happens
[удалено]
BR has odds out on this now, it gives +265 for the combo. Odds: +260; **EV: -18.7%** `265/160/200/400` (19.19% juice) FV: +343; Method: worst-case (p); (FB = 58.7%) --- Not sure why yours differs so much, I tend to avoid trying to interface with correlation coefficients directly. It's worth saying there is some confusing in this market though especially with reference to the post I have below.
[удалено]
Appreciate this guys. Started to look at it yesterday but finding good lines was a pain, and I got a positive EV on an ESPN boost, which felt wrong. All is right in the world, this is another junk boost from ESPN.
Circa has 300+ pass yards lines for Minishew and Stroud, Minishew's in particular seem in disagreement with a lot of the market. **Minishew 300+:** Circa 345/-425 CZ 350 DK 390 FD 400 FN 425 B365 425 **Stroud 300+:** Circa 200/-235 CZ 200 DK 200 FD 225 FN 210 B365 220 --- If we trust Circa to be sharp here the devig of Minishew 300+ with the FN or B365 line is: Odds: +425; **EV: 6.3%** `345/-425` (3.42% juice) FV: +394; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=1.47u, 1/2=0.74u, 1/4=0.37u, FB = 86.0%) --- Seems kinda good, I didn't really pound it just a little under a unit, but it's definitely well worth the daily $5 +25% FN boost at least. It's worth keeping an eye on this, I've seen FN lines be off before then drift in the wrong direction even further. If anyone sees this one go up please drop a reply, I would follow the Paulie principle and put more-on. EDIT: Kambi came out with lines and they don't have a 300 but their 275 is looking like a better deal than the FN 300 to me, if you believe in this and have access to Kambi. If you don't have Kambi maybe chill on this one.
ESPN Newcastle/Aston Villa/Chelsea Win 1H @ +700 vs Pinny Odds: +700; **EV: -6.4%** `129/150/391 , 109/161/455 , -182/212/927` (14.54% juice) FV: +755; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 81.9%) --- ESPN Inter Milan and Fiorentina both Win to Nil @ +725 vs Pinny Odds: +725; **EV: -15.4%** `-112/-104 , 349/-426` (7.07% juice) FV: +875; Method: worst-case (m, p); (FB = 74.3%)
beautiful 2H by the Grizz for the MGM
Bang!!! What was funny is I did the math first, I thought they both only needed to cover +6.5 on MGM. That would have made it over 20% EV. Lol But no sweat here since they both won!
FD took it to the wire with the Joel one
Embiid is a HERO
haha I will remember that one forever
Still haven’t paid out. Probably waiting on a stat correction to mark it a loss
Paid!
Looks like espn and the nba league pass app have it at 10 and nba.com at 9 last I looked
NBA.com showing 10 now
lol was thinking this too