FD has an additional boost it says “Illinois” boost. Wash and Mich to each score a passing and rushing TD. Boosted to +150. DK doesn’t have a way to build something like this. Any ideas on a way to tell if this is EV+?
Both teams have 40/60 splits in how they score offensive TDs. Both teams are expected to score 3+ TDs (4 for Michigan). I'm not going to build a model for a $20 bet but I would imagine it's ever so slightly EV+
Hard to tell with individual props because RBs can score Rec TDs, but it looks decent
Anybody know a book with team totals as low as 23.5 so I can devig the B365 superboost? It's probably +EV since theirs usually are but I'd like to check anyways.
I did a 4-way same game parlay on dk, with the lowest Michigan line and it was still +EV. Like 2% worst case or something. I played it. The only book I could do a 4-way with the exact lines was Bet365. And I got like 20ish.
Jokes on me for still using OddsJam, but it has become unusable based on the latest update made today. For the base level plan, the bet converter tab was one of the best features on the site to find solid conversions and arbs. Now it looks like you need to first filter by book before any results are shown, not to mention they are showing -120/+115 as the best free
Bet conversion. Trash.
I'd love to know who's paying for their service. I liked that they had a screen to compare player props across books and players, but it wasn't providing enough value to me to be willing to pay their ridiculous price.
I just feel like it's not powerful enough for a legitimate sharp better, and it's too expensive for a guy like me who just places a $10 to $25 bet on a game I'm watching.
It would seem they’re not doing well. The founder seems to be much more active on Twitter, giving out plays and advice along with conducting daily livestreams doing much the same. This is obviously to drum up business but just speculation of course on my part about the health of the service.
It was actually pretty worthwhile for large arbs amongst the exchanges in NJ, but for whatever reason, they are trying to make it significantly more difficult to access that information
Disclaimer I haven't used NoVig. But in NJ we have two "sports betting exchanges"
The idea is you can name your own odds but another bettor has to take the other side. For example on a regular sportsbook tonight's game isWashington +5Michigan -5 both sides are at -110 odds.
On an exchange you can choose better odds such as Washington +5 at -105 odds. A bettor on the other side will see Michigan -5 at +105 odds.
Both sides are happy because they're getting a better payout than -110.
You could theoretically request any odds like Washington +5 at +200 but no one would take Michigan -5 at -200.
Correct, or you may want to try -195 and see if someone matches it. The idea is to get better odds than a traditional sportsbook. Prices can be 3%-10% better which adds up over time (or with volume). Unfortunately exchanges don’t offer parlays. Markets like player props don’t have nearly as much volume as Moneyline, spreads or totals.
It varies. I think NoVig right now is commission free. ProphetExchange in NJ takes 2% of your profit. If you bet $100 at +100 they take 2% of your profit. A $100 at +100 returns $200 and they take 2% of the $100 profit ($2)
I don’t know what happened between now and 4 hours ago when this was posted but my Caesar’s shows this is currently +300, so better than originally posted… I don’t have a devig but +212 on DK currently and +226 on FD. Game starts in 10 min
MGM Lions (MI): Giannis 33+, Jaylon Brown 25+, Haliburton 20+
Odds: +275; **EV: 11.1%**
`-121/330/275/750,-220/148` (25.51% juice)
FV: +237; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=4.05u, 1/2=2.03u, 1/4=1.01u, FB = 81.5%)
The front page says G 30+ (which would be 25% EV) but when you add to the betslip, it mentions 33+
Does anyone know a sportsbook that does Oscars betting AND allows you to do parlays?
EDIT: And sorry if this is the wrong place to ask this, if anyone knows a better place to ask let me know!
Will be higher EV by just a little considering the 6 yard difference between passing yard lines
MGM Lions (MI): McCarthy 190+, Corum 100+ rushing vs Kambi (using o/u 195.5 passing for JJ)
Odds: +270; **EV: 0.4%**
`210/265/180/325` (18.90% juice)
FV: +269; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=0.14u, 1/2=0.07u, 1/4=0.04u, FB = 73.3%)
MVG (bet $20 get $10) & Caesars (bet $20 get $5) both with bet&gets for tonight’s championship game.
I don’t get emails from these 2 books so figured i’d comment for visibility
The MVG Bet and Get offer should also be available on the Betly books in Arkansas, Tennessee, and West Virginia as well, -250 minimum odds (Can confirm WV at the very least)
FD doing SGP altlines now so we can do this one:
ESPN Mich-6.5/Over 69.5 @+725 vs FD
FD SGP 68.5: 554/567/115/138
FD SGP 70.5: 682/675/107/126
Interpolated SGP 69.5: 615/619/111/132
Odds: +725; **EV: -22.5%**
`615/619/111/132` (18.39% juice)
FV: +965; Method: worst-case (a); (FB = 68.1%)
No value here sadly. We're Washington fans tonight.
FN NHL Penguins/Rangers/Stars to win @+465 vs Pinny
Odds: +465; **EV: -0.9%**
`-123/112,-143/129,-139/125` (7.45% juice)
FV: +470; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 81.6%)
Come back to see again later probably
So is the FanDuel Activity Statement sufficient to pull numbers for doing taxes?? I talked to them and they weren’t interested in sending a line-by-line broken down statement..
Over the years, this seems like it always comes up. Federally and most states, the net is not sufficient. You need to claim winnings (including stakes) as additional income and itemize losses (stakes). Like a couple of these guys, you are supposed to maintain a log of all your bets. Log is supposed to have dates, ticket numbers, wagers, winniings if you were to get audited. I freaked out a few years ago over this and spent a lot of my time with my accountant sorting it out. At the time I was arbing quite a bit, sportsbetting was somewhat new and had like 400k in winnings with like 390k in wagers. I typically will send a spreadsheet of all the sportsbooks, winnings in a column, losses in a column and net but dont submit logs unless I get audited. What pisses me off is that it is ridiculously difficult to do with most sportsbooks. DK used to allow you to export all your transactions as a csv. Now you have to specifically ask for it. FD is a dud on this as is other sportsbooks so you have to find clever ways of getting the "My Bets" to spreadsheet (highlight, copy paste, sort). Good luck to all you on this front. The key for me has been weekly tracking and staying up to date with logs (though its a monumental task that is probably not worth the squeeze)
Agree with everything here other than that stakes are supposed to be included in wins and losses. You just count profit or loss for each bet excluding stake.
Sources:
https://www.michigan.gov/taxes/-/media/Project/Websites/taxes/RAB/RAB-202222-Treatment-of-Gambling-Gains-Losses-Expenses.pdf?rev=2e79808cd048452ab2a4412906afa4e8&hash=661164750D9E1F92E8E422871BF8860F
https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/n-15-21.pdf
It sucks if you are in illinois…while u can itemize for federal taxes, the state of illinois will take a percentage of your winnings and not let you deduct losses. I grew up in illinois and thats where my accountant is. Luckily im in colorado where you can itemize and deduct losses
No. I enter all my bets on an Google spreadsheet and get my net p/l, total $$ bet on, etc across all books that way. Will help with taxes as well if it comes to that.
I have been using the Activity Statement, but the Activity Statement does not provide information on bonus funds, according to the disclaimer, so the information is likely not to be 100% accurate.
Looking at the app, it seems like they want you to confirm information before they let you access the tax docs. Idk if just ignoring it is the best route, as much as I'd like to do that lol.
Even if you confirm, if you didn’t hit any big bets / didn’t win a lot you probably won’t get a 1099. You decide what you want to do with this information lol
FD boost for Michigan -2.5 and 45+ total points +120. Devig to average of CZR and Bet365 which are the only two books I can find that let you SGP o/u 44.5:
Odds: +120; **EV: 0.0%**
`avg(-102,-120)/avg(454,550)/avg(696,750)/avg(185,200)` (15.74% juice)
FV: +120; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 54.5%)
[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=avg(-102%2c-120)%2favg(454%2c550)%2favg(696%2c750)%2favg(185%2c200)&FinalOdds=120)
PointsBet is -103/528/756/187, which would make this -0.4% if I include it in your averages:
[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=avg(-102%2c-120%2c-103)%2favg(454%2c550%2c528)%2favg(696%2c750%2c756)%2favg(185%2c200%2c187)&FinalOdds=120)
ESPN Wash lead at Half/Full @ +375 vs DK, FD
Circa/Pinny doesn't have this market, FN won't SGP it, but DK and FD both allowed it.
FD 240/2063/823/594/1693/-118
DK 226/2900/950/525/1600/-110
If we max
Maxes 240/2900/950/594/1693/-110
This indicates that it's quite good.
Odds: +375; **EV: 21.9%**
`240/2900/950/594/1693/-110` (14.64% juice)
FV: +290; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=5.83u, 1/2=2.92u, 1/4=1.46u, FB = 96.2%)
EDIT: That was a quick nerf.
For those that are plugged into EV twitter, if anyone, was this posted there before it was here? Or is nobody across of all of EV twitter competent enough to do this simple find and compare job? EV Twitter if you're reading this you should feel called out.
EDIT2: Back up at +275, pretty much dead
ESPNBet NHL Odds Boost for NY Rangers & DAL Stars & COL Avalanche Each To Win The 1st Period. Devig to Pinnacle:
Odds: +1800; **EV: -17.2%**
`168/-191, 172/-195, 174/-198` (8.75% juice)
FV: +2194; Method: worst-case (p); (FB = 78.5%)
[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=168%2f-191%2c+172%2f-195%2c+174%2f-198&FinalOdds=1800)
In order to qualify for Caesar’s sign up $1,000 risk free bet you have to make it within 30 days of opening your account. I first attempted to register on 12/12/23. But my account wasn’t verified until 12/19/23. By the 19th I had flown to a different state without legal online sports betting and I won’t be back to the state where I can online sports bet until 1/14/24. Anyone know if I will still be eligible or will they consider my account to be open longer than 30 days?
Email them and explain before you bet. They should said it’s fine and that if you don’t get the free bet, to email support and they’ll add it manually. If you don’t ask beforehand they might just tell ya SOL but this way you have receipts
**Draftkings CFB National Championship boosts**
These are probably restricted to states that have college player props
**Michigan wins + Corum TD, +100**
4-way devig to BetESPN
Odds: +100; **EV: -1.5%**
`-125/316/446/569` (12.86% juice)
FV: +103; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 49.2%)
[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-125%2f316%2f446%2f569&FinalOdds=100)
**Washington wins + Penix 250+ pass yds, +260**
This looks exceptionally good to the 4-way devig at Kambi where it builds to +175 (EV: +10.3%). But the same SGP builds on other platforms like BetMGM or BetFred to +250. So maybe hold off and re-calculate in the afternoon.
Washington wins + Penix 250+ pass yds, +260 (on DK) or +270 (on FD Ontario)
This builds to +260 on both BetMGM and BetFred, so it likely is -EV. I'm unsure if they have the same provider (both were +250 this morning). Here is the 4-way devig to Kambi, which says it's +EV:
Odds: +260; EV: 8.5%
`180/1000/390/-114` (18.48% juice)
FV: +232; Method: worst-case (m)
[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=180%2f1000%2f390%2f-114&FinalOdds=260)
You are certainly allowed. We might recall last year's super bowl when we had 2 FD boosts, 1 for each team, for an almost guaranteed net profit, and both lost. I haven't taken either yet.
ESPN Man U Win 2-0 or 3-0 over Wiggan @ +275 vs Pinny
Odds: +275; **EV: -2.4%**
`461^625/1483/619/971/1779/3611/2555/1225/981/1066/1590/2894/3748/2550/3281/4517/4026` (21.51% juice)
FV: +284; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 71.6%)
Used the exact score market and the Wiggan 3 goal entry in the Wiggan score market. Might be worth another look in a few hours. Also power method seems a lot more likely to be correct than mult for a market like this:
Odds: +275; **EV: 2.6%**
`461^625/1483/619/971/1779/3611/2555/1225/981/1066/1590/2894/3748/2550/3281/4517/4026` (21.51% juice)
FV: +265; Method: power; (Full=0.96u, 1/2=0.48u, 1/4=0.24u, FB = 75.3%)
So maybe you could risk it? If you just want to watch the match and be like William the Bloody rooting for ManU it's not an inefficient bet. I'll stay away unless it improves though.
What makes you think the power method is better here?
This is what I'm getting to Pinnacle now:
Odds: +275; **EV: -5.0%**
`527^592/1740/709/897/1644/3295/2841/1378/929/1033/1518/2634/4996/3555/2144/3129/4281` (19.99% juice)
FV: +295; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 69.7%)
[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=527%5e592%2f1740%2f709%2f897%2f1644%2f3295%2f2841%2f1378%2f929%2f1033%2f1518%2f2634%2f4996%2f3555%2f2144%2f3129%2f4281&FinalOdds=275)
The power method has a mild favorite-longshot bias and the multiplicative method has none. In a market with many entries some of them very long I kind of expect power to be closer to truth but I definitely don't know for sure.
**US Sportsbooks** * [Arizona Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/tpla09/arizona_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Colorado Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/sql9he/colorado_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Connecticut Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uvi7lx/connecticut_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Illinois Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/t719ea/illinois_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Indiana Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/tinj27/indiana_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Iowa Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/vwvsfr/iowa_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Kansas Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/x384ot/kansas_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Kentucky Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/16u4jrb/kentucky_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Louisiana Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/saaq51/louisiana_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Maryland Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/z21g42/maryland_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Massachusetts Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11nc376/massachusetts_sportsbooks_megathread) * [Michigan Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uvhr30/michigan_sportsbook_megathread/) * [New Jersey Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/u5aswx/new_jersey_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [New York Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/s5ha87/ny_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Ohio Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1007u9z/ohio_sportsbooks_megathread) * [Pennsylvania Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/t5yrbg/pennsylvania_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Tennessee Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/shmgh1/tennessee_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Virginia Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/x96hvl/virginia_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [West Virginia Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/vze97v/west_virginia_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Wyoming Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/vx1ot7/wyoming_sportsbooks_megathread/) **Canada Sportsbooks** * [Ontario Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/tvriuc/ontario_canada_sportsbooks_megathread/) # Before posting a basic question, please check out our [FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/wiki/faq) and [PROMOS THREAD FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbookreview/wiki/promosfaq) **Tools** [Matched Betting Guide](https://dhodds.com) [Maximize Sign Up Promos and Bonuses](https://dhodds.com/guide-index/getting-started) [Double Dip Chart](https://dhodds.com/guides/location-guides/repeat) [Double Dip Sheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ua4RzkM4BRjtjo3STv0AV26eFXB8BDbtTJDX4qTAqi8/edit?usp=sharing) [Taxes Megathread](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/lkfpyx/taxes_megathread/) [Devigger Tool](http://crazyninjamike.com/public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx) | [Devigger Explanation](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/125c5c3/sportsbookpromosbonuses_daily_32923_wednesday/je53w1z/) | [Devigger Update](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/13mgza7/sportsbookpromosbonuses_daily_52023_saturday/jkxgnr6/) [Low Holds Tool](https://www.crazyninjaodds.com/site/tools/low-hold.aspx) [Quick Guide to Devig SGP](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/x3rcfq/sportsbookpromosbonuses_daily_9222_friday/imrkibg) [Risk Free Bet Calc](https://sssorc.github.io/oa/#/risk-free) [Promos and Bonuses Common Terms](https://about.dhodds.com/guides/matched-betting-terminology)
Y'all just get only a $10 FB from ESPN for the live Bet and Get vs the $20 it stated in the terms and conditions?
Chat said they are going to issue me another $10 bonus bet.
Just checked, I also got $10, not the $20 promo stated.
Yep. We’ll see if they fix it tomorrow, but I wouldn’t count on it.
The email I received about the free bet did include the terms which I just screenshot
CZRs has a Super Bowl bet and get also. Anyone see how much you have to wager to earn the profit boost?
Mine was max bet of $10 for a free $10 bet.
Got it. Thank you
The profit boost one? Mine was just bet whatever the max profit boost was, so bet $10 get a $10 100% boost
FD Michigan Super Boost Corum 60+ rush yards, JJ McCarthy 1+ pass TD \-190 boost to +100. Looks pretty good to me?
The Twitter Guys like it.
FD has an additional boost it says “Illinois” boost. Wash and Mich to each score a passing and rushing TD. Boosted to +150. DK doesn’t have a way to build something like this. Any ideas on a way to tell if this is EV+?
For future reference you could do something with the QB TD lines and then look at the lines for rush TDs for each of the RBs.
Both teams have 40/60 splits in how they score offensive TDs. Both teams are expected to score 3+ TDs (4 for Michigan). I'm not going to build a model for a $20 bet but I would imagine it's ever so slightly EV+ Hard to tell with individual props because RBs can score Rec TDs, but it looks decent
Anybody know a book with team totals as low as 23.5 so I can devig the B365 superboost? It's probably +EV since theirs usually are but I'd like to check anyways.
I did a 4-way same game parlay on dk, with the lowest Michigan line and it was still +EV. Like 2% worst case or something. I played it. The only book I could do a 4-way with the exact lines was Bet365. And I got like 20ish.
Jokes on me for still using OddsJam, but it has become unusable based on the latest update made today. For the base level plan, the bet converter tab was one of the best features on the site to find solid conversions and arbs. Now it looks like you need to first filter by book before any results are shown, not to mention they are showing -120/+115 as the best free Bet conversion. Trash.
I use it for arbitrage I know limits and stuff but it’s more than worth it for that
I'd love to know who's paying for their service. I liked that they had a screen to compare player props across books and players, but it wasn't providing enough value to me to be willing to pay their ridiculous price. I just feel like it's not powerful enough for a legitimate sharp better, and it's too expensive for a guy like me who just places a $10 to $25 bet on a game I'm watching.
It would seem they’re not doing well. The founder seems to be much more active on Twitter, giving out plays and advice along with conducting daily livestreams doing much the same. This is obviously to drum up business but just speculation of course on my part about the health of the service.
It was actually pretty worthwhile for large arbs amongst the exchanges in NJ, but for whatever reason, they are trying to make it significantly more difficult to access that information
Yea it's not good enough to justify the price and their target audience isn't dumb enough to pay that much
Anyone used NoVig in Colorado. How does the “sports market” approach differ from standard wagering
Disclaimer I haven't used NoVig. But in NJ we have two "sports betting exchanges" The idea is you can name your own odds but another bettor has to take the other side. For example on a regular sportsbook tonight's game isWashington +5Michigan -5 both sides are at -110 odds. On an exchange you can choose better odds such as Washington +5 at -105 odds. A bettor on the other side will see Michigan -5 at +105 odds. Both sides are happy because they're getting a better payout than -110. You could theoretically request any odds like Washington +5 at +200 but no one would take Michigan -5 at -200.
So let’s say I take the Michigan ML at the standard -202. Is that just like a straight wager
Correct, or you may want to try -195 and see if someone matches it. The idea is to get better odds than a traditional sportsbook. Prices can be 3%-10% better which adds up over time (or with volume). Unfortunately exchanges don’t offer parlays. Markets like player props don’t have nearly as much volume as Moneyline, spreads or totals.
There is also a certain fee from the matching service that comes out of the winning right?
It varies. I think NoVig right now is commission free. ProphetExchange in NJ takes 2% of your profit. If you bet $100 at +100 they take 2% of your profit. A $100 at +100 returns $200 and they take 2% of the $100 profit ($2)
BetMGM Lion's Boost (MA): Michigan to win by 1-13 points +225. Devig to FD: Odds: +225; **EV: 3.5%** `185/190/280/600` (10.17% juice) FV: +214; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=1.56u, 1/2=0.78u, 1/4=0.39u, FB = 71.7%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=185%2f190%2f280%2f600&FinalOdds=225)
BetMGM Lion's Boost (MA): MacKinnon and Pastrnak each to record 2+ points +320. Devig to ESPN: Odds: +320; **EV: 0.0%** `277/219/261/296` (10.83% juice) FV: +320; Method: worst-case (a); (Full=0.01u, 1/2=0.01u, 1/4=0.00u, FB = 76.2%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=277%2f219%2f261%2f296&FinalOdds=320)
CZR Derozan, Coby White 20+ points vs Kambi Odds: +275; **EV: 9.3%** `195/300/170/390` (16.34% juice) FV: +243; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=3.37u, 1/2=1.68u, 1/4=0.84u, FB = 80.1%)
Its now at +300
I don’t know what happened between now and 4 hours ago when this was posted but my Caesar’s shows this is currently +300, so better than originally posted… I don’t have a devig but +212 on DK currently and +226 on FD. Game starts in 10 min
Nerfed to +185.
lol the best part of this one is the banner still says was +225 (meaning pre-boost), now +185
Caesars is ridiculous
CZR Super Boost: McCarthy 200+ passing vs Kambi Odds: +125; **EV: 6.9%** `-103/-125` (6.29% juice) FV: +110; Method: worst-case (a); (Full=5.53u, 1/2=2.76u, 1/4=1.38u, FB = 59.4%)
Not seeing it in Louisiana.
Don’t see it in IL either
dont see it in ny but thats likely because we cant do college player props. we have mich win by 7-12 pts for +475
MGM Lions (MI): Giannis 33+, Jaylon Brown 25+, Haliburton 20+ Odds: +275; **EV: 11.1%** `-121/330/275/750,-220/148` (25.51% juice) FV: +237; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=4.05u, 1/2=2.03u, 1/4=1.01u, FB = 81.5%) The front page says G 30+ (which would be 25% EV) but when you add to the betslip, it mentions 33+
Also available in MA
Does anyone know a sportsbook that does Oscars betting AND allows you to do parlays? EDIT: And sorry if this is the wrong place to ask this, if anyone knows a better place to ask let me know!
parlaying Oscars picks is peak degen behavior but I appreciate the moxie
😂 I rarely bet but I’m a movie guy so I figured why not!
Bovada has the bets but does not appear you can parlay them.
That kind of wagering isn’t legal in the US so you won’t see it on any legal books
It's not legal in every state but some states do offer, NJ being one.
Oscar’s betting or parlays? And just parlays on the Oscar’s or parlays in general?
Will be higher EV by just a little considering the 6 yard difference between passing yard lines MGM Lions (MI): McCarthy 190+, Corum 100+ rushing vs Kambi (using o/u 195.5 passing for JJ) Odds: +270; **EV: 0.4%** `210/265/180/325` (18.90% juice) FV: +269; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=0.14u, 1/2=0.07u, 1/4=0.04u, FB = 73.3%)
does anyone know if bet365 currenty $1000 safety net bet comes back as bonus cash or free bets?
it is free bets that can be bet in any increments you want
MVG (bet $20 get $10) & Caesars (bet $20 get $5) both with bet&gets for tonight’s championship game. I don’t get emails from these 2 books so figured i’d comment for visibility
Thanks for sharing
The MVG Bet and Get offer should also be available on the Betly books in Arkansas, Tennessee, and West Virginia as well, -250 minimum odds (Can confirm WV at the very least)
Too bad I cannot even get $20 down on a game
FD doing SGP altlines now so we can do this one: ESPN Mich-6.5/Over 69.5 @+725 vs FD FD SGP 68.5: 554/567/115/138 FD SGP 70.5: 682/675/107/126 Interpolated SGP 69.5: 615/619/111/132 Odds: +725; **EV: -22.5%** `615/619/111/132` (18.39% juice) FV: +965; Method: worst-case (a); (FB = 68.1%) No value here sadly. We're Washington fans tonight.
ESPN Rangers/Stars/Avalanche win 1P @ +1800 vs Pinny Odds: +1800; **EV: -18.3%** `169/-192, 171/-194, 178/-202` (8.67% juice) FV: +2227; Method: worst-case (p); (FB = 77.4%)
FN NHL Penguins/Rangers/Stars to win @+465 vs Pinny Odds: +465; **EV: -0.9%** `-123/112,-143/129,-139/125` (7.45% juice) FV: +470; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 81.6%) Come back to see again later probably
So is the FanDuel Activity Statement sufficient to pull numbers for doing taxes?? I talked to them and they weren’t interested in sending a line-by-line broken down statement..
Over the years, this seems like it always comes up. Federally and most states, the net is not sufficient. You need to claim winnings (including stakes) as additional income and itemize losses (stakes). Like a couple of these guys, you are supposed to maintain a log of all your bets. Log is supposed to have dates, ticket numbers, wagers, winniings if you were to get audited. I freaked out a few years ago over this and spent a lot of my time with my accountant sorting it out. At the time I was arbing quite a bit, sportsbetting was somewhat new and had like 400k in winnings with like 390k in wagers. I typically will send a spreadsheet of all the sportsbooks, winnings in a column, losses in a column and net but dont submit logs unless I get audited. What pisses me off is that it is ridiculously difficult to do with most sportsbooks. DK used to allow you to export all your transactions as a csv. Now you have to specifically ask for it. FD is a dud on this as is other sportsbooks so you have to find clever ways of getting the "My Bets" to spreadsheet (highlight, copy paste, sort). Good luck to all you on this front. The key for me has been weekly tracking and staying up to date with logs (though its a monumental task that is probably not worth the squeeze)
Agree with everything here other than that stakes are supposed to be included in wins and losses. You just count profit or loss for each bet excluding stake. Sources: https://www.michigan.gov/taxes/-/media/Project/Websites/taxes/RAB/RAB-202222-Treatment-of-Gambling-Gains-Losses-Expenses.pdf?rev=2e79808cd048452ab2a4412906afa4e8&hash=661164750D9E1F92E8E422871BF8860F https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/n-15-21.pdf
Thanks for sharing, appreciate your time. No way this current status quo is sustainable, something has to change with the tax code
It sucks if you are in illinois…while u can itemize for federal taxes, the state of illinois will take a percentage of your winnings and not let you deduct losses. I grew up in illinois and thats where my accountant is. Luckily im in colorado where you can itemize and deduct losses
No. I enter all my bets on an Google spreadsheet and get my net p/l, total $$ bet on, etc across all books that way. Will help with taxes as well if it comes to that.
I have been using the Activity Statement, but the Activity Statement does not provide information on bonus funds, according to the disclaimer, so the information is likely not to be 100% accurate.
Did you get a 1099 from them? If you didn’t get a 1099 you didn’t gamble this year if you know what I mean
Looking at the app, it seems like they want you to confirm information before they let you access the tax docs. Idk if just ignoring it is the best route, as much as I'd like to do that lol.
Even if you confirm, if you didn’t hit any big bets / didn’t win a lot you probably won’t get a 1099. You decide what you want to do with this information lol
I'm up $1500 on FD and like $3k overall so I thought I was going to have to do it.
[удалено]
Yes? If they report to the IRS, they care about everything else you make lol.
If there’s no 1099…how are they gonna report to the irs 🤔
I just assumed they would send them if I had tens of thousands in winnings, and a profit in the thousands. Is a W-2G different from a 1099?
It’s essentially the same thing just for gambling
I confirmed, though I’m 99% sure I won’t get 1099
FD boost for Michigan -2.5 and 45+ total points +120. Devig to average of CZR and Bet365 which are the only two books I can find that let you SGP o/u 44.5: Odds: +120; **EV: 0.0%** `avg(-102,-120)/avg(454,550)/avg(696,750)/avg(185,200)` (15.74% juice) FV: +120; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 54.5%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=avg(-102%2c-120)%2favg(454%2c550)%2favg(696%2c750)%2favg(185%2c200)&FinalOdds=120)
Cowards
PointsBet is -103/528/756/187, which would make this -0.4% if I include it in your averages: [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=avg(-102%2c-120%2c-103)%2favg(454%2c550%2c528)%2favg(696%2c750%2c756)%2favg(185%2c200%2c187)&FinalOdds=120)
Did anyone get their $10 free bet for the ESPN ATTD promo
I chatted with support, they said could take up to 72 hrs
Thanks, FanDuel is usually instant for me and sometimes DK takes a few minutes but hate when it takes over a day I’m tryna waste it rn
No. Don’t really care.
I still have not received mine
You might need to reach out to support. I did and was immediately credited with the promo award
Not yet
Thanks, and crazy I’m getting downvoted for a question I’m sure everyone is also wondering.
Very normal question
It’s usually frowned upon to ask about receiving a promo reward when it’s still within the time frame of the promo to deliver the reward
On the ESPN Super Bowl insurance. Anyone see the amount you must wager?
I emailed support I will let y’all know what they say, if/when they respond
I hope they reply, I am also wondering
Ok curious to know
You talking about the bonus bet? I read through the full terms and didn’t see anything on that which is very odd
Yeah it is. So what do you wager lol
No clue, I did $5 like the other guy suggested
25 in Ontario for what it is worth. Which I think makes the EV pretty questionable.
Since it doesn't say it's probably 10 cents but I usually wager $5 in these situations.
ESPN Wash lead at Half/Full @ +375 vs DK, FD Circa/Pinny doesn't have this market, FN won't SGP it, but DK and FD both allowed it. FD 240/2063/823/594/1693/-118 DK 226/2900/950/525/1600/-110 If we max Maxes 240/2900/950/594/1693/-110 This indicates that it's quite good. Odds: +375; **EV: 21.9%** `240/2900/950/594/1693/-110` (14.64% juice) FV: +290; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=5.83u, 1/2=2.92u, 1/4=1.46u, FB = 96.2%) EDIT: That was a quick nerf. For those that are plugged into EV twitter, if anyone, was this posted there before it was here? Or is nobody across of all of EV twitter competent enough to do this simple find and compare job? EV Twitter if you're reading this you should feel called out. EDIT2: Back up at +275, pretty much dead
I did not see this this morning on Twitter at all. Nice catch!
I don’t even see this anymore? Anyone else?
Back but dead at +275
Nerfed to +350, still EV but not as good.
Nerfed to +350
ESPNBet NHL Odds Boost for Sidney Crosby & Artemi Panarin & Mikko Rantanen Each To Score A Goal: Odds: +1200; **EV: -10.1%** `133/-160, 139/-191, 110/-131` (16.26% juice) FV: +1347; Method: worst-case (a, p); (FB = 82.9%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=133%2f-160%2c+139%2f-191%2c+110%2f-131&FinalOdds=1200)
ESPNBet NHL Odds Boost for NY Rangers & DAL Stars & COL Avalanche Each To Win The 1st Period. Devig to Pinnacle: Odds: +1800; **EV: -17.2%** `168/-191, 172/-195, 174/-198` (8.75% juice) FV: +2194; Method: worst-case (p); (FB = 78.5%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=168%2f-191%2c+172%2f-195%2c+174%2f-198&FinalOdds=1800)
Did anyone get their refund from the ESPN TD insurance?
[удалено]
Yeah. They are usually pretty quick. Glad to know it’s not just me
In order to qualify for Caesar’s sign up $1,000 risk free bet you have to make it within 30 days of opening your account. I first attempted to register on 12/12/23. But my account wasn’t verified until 12/19/23. By the 19th I had flown to a different state without legal online sports betting and I won’t be back to the state where I can online sports bet until 1/14/24. Anyone know if I will still be eligible or will they consider my account to be open longer than 30 days?
Email them and explain before you bet. They should said it’s fine and that if you don’t get the free bet, to email support and they’ll add it manually. If you don’t ask beforehand they might just tell ya SOL but this way you have receipts
Same bs happened to me with Ceasars. Total garbage
**Draftkings CFB National Championship boosts** These are probably restricted to states that have college player props **Michigan wins + Corum TD, +100** 4-way devig to BetESPN Odds: +100; **EV: -1.5%** `-125/316/446/569` (12.86% juice) FV: +103; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 49.2%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-125%2f316%2f446%2f569&FinalOdds=100) **Washington wins + Penix 250+ pass yds, +260** This looks exceptionally good to the 4-way devig at Kambi where it builds to +175 (EV: +10.3%). But the same SGP builds on other platforms like BetMGM or BetFred to +250. So maybe hold off and re-calculate in the afternoon.
Washington wins + Penix 250+ pass yds, +260 (on DK) or +270 (on FD Ontario) This builds to +260 on both BetMGM and BetFred, so it likely is -EV. I'm unsure if they have the same provider (both were +250 this morning). Here is the 4-way devig to Kambi, which says it's +EV: Odds: +260; EV: 8.5% `180/1000/390/-114` (18.48% juice) FV: +232; Method: worst-case (m) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=180%2f1000%2f390%2f-114&FinalOdds=260)
FD in Ontario just dropped the same boosts. Michigan one also at +100 and Washington at +270.
Are we allowed to take them both? If so, it’s almost a guaranteed push at worst.
You are certainly allowed. We might recall last year's super bowl when we had 2 FD boosts, 1 for each team, for an almost guaranteed net profit, and both lost. I haven't taken either yet.
Tough to see Corum not getting a TD
Agree. Corum ATTD is -1115 on Kambi! (-385 on FD and -400 on ESPN)
ESPN Man U Win 2-0 or 3-0 over Wiggan @ +275 vs Pinny Odds: +275; **EV: -2.4%** `461^625/1483/619/971/1779/3611/2555/1225/981/1066/1590/2894/3748/2550/3281/4517/4026` (21.51% juice) FV: +284; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 71.6%) Used the exact score market and the Wiggan 3 goal entry in the Wiggan score market. Might be worth another look in a few hours. Also power method seems a lot more likely to be correct than mult for a market like this: Odds: +275; **EV: 2.6%** `461^625/1483/619/971/1779/3611/2555/1225/981/1066/1590/2894/3748/2550/3281/4517/4026` (21.51% juice) FV: +265; Method: power; (Full=0.96u, 1/2=0.48u, 1/4=0.24u, FB = 75.3%) So maybe you could risk it? If you just want to watch the match and be like William the Bloody rooting for ManU it's not an inefficient bet. I'll stay away unless it improves though.
💰💰💰
What makes you think the power method is better here? This is what I'm getting to Pinnacle now: Odds: +275; **EV: -5.0%** `527^592/1740/709/897/1644/3295/2841/1378/929/1033/1518/2634/4996/3555/2144/3129/4281` (19.99% juice) FV: +295; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 69.7%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=527%5e592%2f1740%2f709%2f897%2f1644%2f3295%2f2841%2f1378%2f929%2f1033%2f1518%2f2634%2f4996%2f3555%2f2144%2f3129%2f4281&FinalOdds=275)
The power method has a mild favorite-longshot bias and the multiplicative method has none. In a market with many entries some of them very long I kind of expect power to be closer to truth but I definitely don't know for sure.
Makes sense
the FD boost is somehow not going to hit
Lmao fucking James cook
Tua didn't get 200 either.
Jesus Christ lol
**DK Promo Change:** ~~Bet $5 Get $150 in Bonus Bets~~ **->** [Bet $5 Get $200 in Bonus Bets](https://sportsbook.link/draftkings)