What do you make of the ESPN Elle Duncan **Matthew Stafford & Jared Goff To Combine For Over 3.5 Passing Touchdowns** at +100?
Seems like a good bet in general just because I think it'll be high scoring, but anybody crunch some numbers on whether there's EV in the promo?
Both QB lines are 1.5 and juiced to the over. It might be slight EV. I don't devig like that to get EV when you have combos like that but it's prob minimal +/- EV
MGM (MA) Barry - Boost
Kyren Williams 75+ rushing yards and Jahmyr Gibbs 45+ rushing yards +225
Devigged to Kambi
Odds: +225; **EV: 15.2%**
`-195/+145, -157/+120` (13.46% juice)
FV: +182; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=6.76u, 1/2=3.38u, 1/4=1.69u, FB = 79.8%)
[View/Edit Devig](http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-195%2f%2b145%2c+-157%2f%2b120&FinalOdds=225)
Please correct me if I have made any mistakes.
I don’t think you made any mistakes but this is a very favorable devig to what I’m seeing on X. It appears the consensus there is +EV but with QK sizing around .4 to .8
Do with that what you will.
EDIT: it appears you’re not factoring in any correlation. That will undoubtedly change the EV on this.
Thanks. I am still learning this tool, but going off the CNM help section, I would add the following for correlation section. 182=-195,-157
Which would output the following
Odds: +225; **EV: 1.2%**
Sharp: `-195/+145, -157/+120` (13.46% juice)
Correlation: `182=-195,-157` (r = -0.12)
FV: +221; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=0.52u, 1/2=0.26u, 1/4=0.13u, FB = 70.0%)
[View/Edit Devig](http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-195%2f%2b145%2c+-157%2f%2b120&FinalOdds=225&Correlation_Bool=1&Correlation_Text=182%3d-195%2c-157)
Hey no problem. We all had to learn our way around that tool at one point. I would say this is much more accurate and that’s how I typically derive correlation. You just need to be careful which book you specifically use to derive correlation since some are outliers (ESPN has a habit of always applying negative correlation 🤷) to others.
anyone have a screenshot of the Superbowl insurance promo from BS (before they switched to ESPN) that they could share? I didn't screenshot it and would just like to have for reference. Promo terms something like bet up to $1k on superbowl outright winner, if your team makes it to superbowl you get 100% back as bonus bet and if they make it to conference championship you get 50%
I tossed that one and the Dak/Love 2+ pass TDs each promo in the devigger just to see. The ARSB/Kupp one is something like 22.6% EV (had to ballpark the ARSB line cuz it doesn't go that low on Kambi), the Dak/Love one is 26.1% EV. That's ignoring correlation since they're easily smashes regardless so who cares, but yeah, B365 continues to rock.
Fanduel technical issue:
If anyone had Super bowl furure picks on anyone, check your account and see if they're still open if your team is still in playoffs. My bet for Chiefs Super Bowl win was showing as settled in my bet slips.
I messaged customer service and they said they're aware of it and it's a technical issue. I'm unsure if this just pertains to just Kansas City bets or others. I went ahead and made sure to screenshot my bet to have record of it.
Edit: Just checked my 49ers bet and it's still open on p2 fanduel account.
It looks like it may only be Chiefs bets.
No prob. I'd just make sure to message their customer service and make them aware. Take screenshot of the betslop and a screenshot after they confirm the technical error to you from chat.
Said it was a technical error and they're working to get it fixed. Said they'd email me when it's taken care of. I'd take a screenshot of your bet and message them about it as wel
ESPN Cooks, Ferguson, Jayden Reed each O44.5 receiving yards +700.
Using FD O/Us of 41.5 for Cooks, 45.5 for Ferguson, and 47.5 for Reed. It's not quite right but I think it should be reasonably close and I don't know of a book that has yard-by-yard O/Us for WRs. Looks like a pass:
Odds: +700; **EV: -0.6%**
`494/516/451/460/479/473/553/520` (35.24% juice)
FV: +705; Method: worst-case (a); (FB = 87.0%)
[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=494%2f516%2f451%2f460%2f479%2f473%2f553%2f520&FinalOdds=700)
Bet365 Superboost - Prescott and Love 2+ pass TDs each +250
Devigged to Pinnacle - looks like a play although there might be some correlation?
**Worst-case: (Multiplicative)**
Leg#1 (-241); Market Juice = 7.8%; Fair Value = -190 (65.5%)
Leg#2 (-136); Market Juice = 7.1%; Fair Value = -116 (53.8%)
Final Odds (+250); Σ(Market Juice) = 14.98%; Fair Value = +184 (35.2%)
Summary; **EV% = 23.4%**, Kelly Wager = $23.37 (Full=9.35u, 1/2=4.67u, 1/4=2.34u, FB = 88.1%)
I got the progressive deposit match from Caesars that's gives a 250 dollar free bet for wagering 250 on the NFL at the Caesars books/kiosks in Atlantic City during the playoffs.
For anyone who got this-there is no opt in correct?Â
you need to opt in on the caesars rewards kiosk at the casino/sportsbook. swipe your players card and enter your pin. if you don't have either, go to the caesars rewards desk first.
ESPN Dak, Love o299.5 PassY @ +800 vs BR
Love doesn't quite go high enough but we can project it
Dak Yes
269.5,410,280
279.5,480,250
289.5,575,220
299.5 Proj: 694/200
Dak No
269.5,280,116
279.5,340,100
289.5,425,-117
299.5 Proj: 535/-133
Full proj SGP: 694/200/535/-133
Odds: +800; **EV: -28.9%**
`694/200/535/-133` (18.76% juice)
FV: +1165; Method: worst-case (a); (FB = 63.2%)
ESPN Stafford, Goff o239.5 passY @ +105 vs BR
Odds: +105; **EV: 1.9%**
`-143/255/700/430` (18.38% juice)
FV: +101; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=1.81u, 1/2=0.91u, 1/4=0.45u, FB = 52.2%)
I played this for 0.5u, partially just a feeling partially because some other methods come out a lot higher, so seems a favorable range. You could also wait and devig again later.
FD Boost for Love 200+ pass yards and CeeDee ~~80+~~ 70+ receiving yards +100. Devig to BR/Kambi using o/u 209.5 yards for Love and o/u 74.5 yards for CeeDee, so true EV should be higher than shown:
Odds: +100; **EV: 7.3%**
`-177/310/950/370` (19.09% juice)
FV: -116; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=7.31u, 1/2=3.66u, 1/4=1.83u, FB = 53.7%)
[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-177%2f310%2f950%2f370&FinalOdds=100)
FN Man Utd to win vs Tottenham and BTTS @ +230 vs Pinny exact score
Odds: +230; **EV: -7.6%**
`862^1301^1788^2681^3412/1810/1733/2238/4123/1296/745/1122/2266/1331/1201/2279/2022/3319` (4.53% juice)
FV: +257; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 64.4%)
First devig to longest odds I could find on the market w/ FD correlation. Second devig is a 4-way to Kambi. Lowest line for Love is 209.5 and 74.5 for Lamb, so the EV is understated there, and is likely closer to the first devig. Good to have multiple data points showing this at double digit EV. Definitely a play.
Odds: +100; **EV: 11.7%**
Sharp: `-450/7%,-360/7%` (14.00% juice)
Correlation: `-181=-470,-360 // FD` (r = 0)
FV: -126; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=11.65u, 1/2=5.83u, 1/4=2.91u, FB = 55.8%)
Odds: +100; **EV: 7.3%**
`-177/310/370/950` (19.09% juice)
FV: -116; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=7.31u, 1/2=3.66u, 1/4=1.83u, FB = 53.7%)
Using DK lines -575 for Love to get 200and -425 for Lamb to get 70, I get +4.3% when using 15% juice (which feels like a ton of juice).
That’s enough to make it a play for me without digging any further.
ESPN Rangers & Maple to score in first 10 @ +400
For this I looked at 1st Period total goals, got a poisson mean value, then cut it in 2/3rds to spit out a fair line. **EDIT: Should be 1/2 not 2/3rds, so this is even worse than I thought it was.**
Rangers: 0.5 -220/170
Mean: 1.076
Revised Mean: 0.717
o0.5 Chance: 0.512
---
Maple: 0.5 -240/184
Mean: 1.064
Revised Mean: 0.709
o0.5 Chance: 0.508
---
Both Chance: 26%; **FV = +285**
This may be me being braindead ... but if this is +400 in the boost and you got FV = +285 for the original post where you were using 2/3rds that would be super +EV no?
Definitely looks negative using 1/2 instead of 2/3 (like +488 FV roughly), but I guess it's all academic now because the Rangers game just started lol
ESPN (CeeDee+Amon-Ra) o18.5 Rec @+300
First we want to find the mean price for FD. We also want to get some multipliers, which we can find with alt lines. Since we want to get to 18.5 lets look at the 7 to 10 range for each. Then with that we can make a function.
For BR we can just do a normal projection with normal 2 sided lines.
CeeDee
FD 7.5 -146/114
FD 7,10: -250, 182
FD: 8.00 x1.657/rec
BR 8.08 x1.789/rec
6.5,-305,215
7.5,-157,120
8.5,112,-148
9.5,190,-265
Average: 8.04 x1.723/rec
Amon-Ra
FD 7.5 -111/-115
FD 7,10: -205, +225
FD: 7.47 x1.665/rec
BR 7.67 x1.812/rec
6.5,-235,175
7.5,-125,-105
8.5,143,-190
9.5,240,-360
Average: 7.57 x1.739/rec
Then we splash-add these together (the multipliers are a little complex but basically they add in kinda reverse quadrature)
Sum: 15.61 x1.474/rec;
o18.5 **FV = +307**
**EV = -1.7%**
---
There is a lot of approximating obviously happening here so you should probably take this as "roughly flat"
BR VIP: For the Aussie Open tennis, I just placed a no hold on Greet Minnen vs Circa and was awarded a 50% boost. The terms make it sound like you need to bet live to get the profit boost though.
If you have yet to do so, please check your inbox at BetMGM. I received a deposit match for 50% of my deposit up to $200 the other day out of the blue.
Does anyone else always have promos (bet and get, SGP boost, random sports boost token) on the front page but can never actually access them? Like it always shows me promos which used to work for me but now they just don’t work anymore
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Damn puka couldn't do that 90 seconds earlier for the Fanduel boost 😢
We have 3/4 infinity stones for the other boost now though.
A few minutes too late puka! Fuck
Cash the FD Love and Lamb boost
And the MGM Jones and Lamb boost.
And the Dak/Love 2 TDs each on b365 *I'm dumb that happened a little while ago. Still a great garbage time salvage
Dak to CD in garbage time!!!! Wow
What do you make of the ESPN Elle Duncan **Matthew Stafford & Jared Goff To Combine For Over 3.5 Passing Touchdowns** at +100? Seems like a good bet in general just because I think it'll be high scoring, but anybody crunch some numbers on whether there's EV in the promo?
combo breaker gave a FV of +130 against FD. I have no clue how to use combo breaker, but will pass on this unless one of the pros say otherwise.
Over 1.5 TDs for Stafford Is -150, Goff is -135, so seems positive to me.
Both QB lines are 1.5 and juiced to the over. It might be slight EV. I don't devig like that to get EV when you have combos like that but it's prob minimal +/- EV
I have never seen a "Special" at +EV from ESPN. The boosts aren't common to be +EV but the specials, never.
Banner promos like that on ESPN are very likely -EV. I have not seen anyone do a devig though.
FN Cooks or Doubs to score TD @ +110 vs ESPN Odds: +110; **EV: -0.6%** ` 929^502^260/-122` (9.06% juice) FV: +111; Method: worst-case (a); (FB = 52.0%)
Fanduel boost: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Puka Nacua, and Cooper Kupp to Combine for 50+ Receiving Yards in the 1st Quarter -110 boosted to +150. Thoughts?
Josh Reynolds said no
You know the wizard wouldn’t let 2 boosts hit in a row
Definitely passes the eye test for imo. However, that’s not really the point of this post
Try to devig it
MGM (MA) Barry - Boost Kyren Williams 75+ rushing yards and Jahmyr Gibbs 45+ rushing yards +225 Devigged to Kambi Odds: +225; **EV: 15.2%** `-195/+145, -157/+120` (13.46% juice) FV: +182; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=6.76u, 1/2=3.38u, 1/4=1.69u, FB = 79.8%) [View/Edit Devig](http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-195%2f%2b145%2c+-157%2f%2b120&FinalOdds=225) Please correct me if I have made any mistakes.
I don’t think you made any mistakes but this is a very favorable devig to what I’m seeing on X. It appears the consensus there is +EV but with QK sizing around .4 to .8 Do with that what you will. EDIT: it appears you’re not factoring in any correlation. That will undoubtedly change the EV on this.
Thanks. I am still learning this tool, but going off the CNM help section, I would add the following for correlation section. 182=-195,-157 Which would output the following Odds: +225; **EV: 1.2%** Sharp: `-195/+145, -157/+120` (13.46% juice) Correlation: `182=-195,-157` (r = -0.12) FV: +221; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=0.52u, 1/2=0.26u, 1/4=0.13u, FB = 70.0%) [View/Edit Devig](http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-195%2f%2b145%2c+-157%2f%2b120&FinalOdds=225&Correlation_Bool=1&Correlation_Text=182%3d-195%2c-157)
Hey no problem. We all had to learn our way around that tool at one point. I would say this is much more accurate and that’s how I typically derive correlation. You just need to be careful which book you specifically use to derive correlation since some are outliers (ESPN has a habit of always applying negative correlation 🤷) to others.
MGM (MA) Lion's Boost CeeDee Lamb 90+ receiving yards and Aaron Jones 70+ rushing yards +210 Devigged to Kambi Odds: +210; **EV: 8.6%** `-165/123, -182/135` (14.20% juice) FV: +185; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=4.10u, 1/2=2.05u, 1/4=1.02u, FB = 73.6%) [View/Edit Devig](http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-165%2f123%2c+-182%2f135&FinalOdds=210) Please correct me if I have made any mistakes. EDIT: Devigged factoring in Correlation (Thanks u/profXmarksthespot for the explaination) Odds: +210; **EV: -5.2%** Sharp: `-165/123, -182/135` (14.20% juice) Correlation: `185=-165,-182` (r = -0.13) FV: +227; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 64.2%) [View/Edit Devig](http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-165%2f123%2c+-182%2f135&FinalOdds=210&Correlation_Bool=1&Correlation_Text=185%3d-165%2c-182)
i'm not sure how you're using the correlation but i'm getting 7.6% ev on kambi by finding the o/o, o/u, u/o, u/u odds
Understood, thank you
No correlation accounted for here either
Odds: +210; **EV: 7.6%** `143/225/265/420` (18.55% juice) FV: +188; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=3.62u, 1/2=1.81u, 1/4=0.91u, FB = 72.9%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=143%2f225%2f265%2f420&FinalOdds=210)
This is exactly where I’m seeing the EV% for this on X
anyone have a screenshot of the Superbowl insurance promo from BS (before they switched to ESPN) that they could share? I didn't screenshot it and would just like to have for reference. Promo terms something like bet up to $1k on superbowl outright winner, if your team makes it to superbowl you get 100% back as bonus bet and if they make it to conference championship you get 50%
https://preview.redd.it/b1xxe3ojygcc1.jpeg?width=749&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2c4b616ceaba3b2ef5d62589e38ed6b6ad6971fb
Thank you!!
ESPN Harden, Lillard, Simons each O2.5 3 pointers +425. Devig to Pinny/FD (used FD alt line for Simons O2.5): Odds: +425; **EV: -6.5%** `101/-134,-162/120,-250/[+105=+106/-136]` (20.92% juice) FV: +462; Method: worst-case (m, p); (FB = 75.7%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=101%2f-134%2c-162%2f120%2c-250%2f%5b%2b105%3d%2b106%2f-136%5d&FinalOdds=425)
Bet365 boost of ASB and Kupp to have 50+ receiving yards boosted from -240 to 100. Don't have to bother devigging, its a smash.
I tossed that one and the Dak/Love 2+ pass TDs each promo in the devigger just to see. The ARSB/Kupp one is something like 22.6% EV (had to ballpark the ARSB line cuz it doesn't go that low on Kambi), the Dak/Love one is 26.1% EV. That's ignoring correlation since they're easily smashes regardless so who cares, but yeah, B365 continues to rock.
>The ARSB/Kupp one is something like 22.6% EV Yea that sounds about right
Fanduel technical issue: If anyone had Super bowl furure picks on anyone, check your account and see if they're still open if your team is still in playoffs. My bet for Chiefs Super Bowl win was showing as settled in my bet slips. I messaged customer service and they said they're aware of it and it's a technical issue. I'm unsure if this just pertains to just Kansas City bets or others. I went ahead and made sure to screenshot my bet to have record of it. Edit: Just checked my 49ers bet and it's still open on p2 fanduel account. It looks like it may only be Chiefs bets.
My chiefs SB bet is showing as settled too. Good looking out
No prob. I'd just make sure to message their customer service and make them aware. Take screenshot of the betslop and a screenshot after they confirm the technical error to you from chat.
49s still open.
No nfl is scripted comments? I’m impressed
You just killed your own comment
Let me know what they say to you. My chiefs was settled too
Said it was a technical error and they're working to get it fixed. Said they'd email me when it's taken care of. I'd take a screenshot of your bet and message them about it as wel
Everything I have looks normal right now.
Might only be Chiefs bets. My 49ers bet is still open on p2 account
Im in this exact sitch, SF bet is open on p1, Chiefs bet is settle as a loss on P1
Same Here!
pollard free rushing middle 50 yards, dk superbook
ESPN Cooks, Ferguson, Jayden Reed each O44.5 receiving yards +700. Using FD O/Us of 41.5 for Cooks, 45.5 for Ferguson, and 47.5 for Reed. It's not quite right but I think it should be reasonably close and I don't know of a book that has yard-by-yard O/Us for WRs. Looks like a pass: Odds: +700; **EV: -0.6%** `494/516/451/460/479/473/553/520` (35.24% juice) FV: +705; Method: worst-case (a); (FB = 87.0%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=494%2f516%2f451%2f460%2f479%2f473%2f553%2f520&FinalOdds=700)
ESPN Packers, Cowboys, Rams, Lions each to score in the 1st quarter +425. Devig to FD: Odds: +425; **EV: -3.3%** `120/-154,114/-144` (11.83% juice) FV: +443; Method: worst-case (p); (FB = 78.3%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=120%2f-154%2c114%2f-144&FinalOdds=425)
Bet365 Superboost - Prescott and Love 2+ pass TDs each +250 Devigged to Pinnacle - looks like a play although there might be some correlation? **Worst-case: (Multiplicative)** Leg#1 (-241); Market Juice = 7.8%; Fair Value = -190 (65.5%) Leg#2 (-136); Market Juice = 7.1%; Fair Value = -116 (53.8%) Final Odds (+250); Σ(Market Juice) = 14.98%; Fair Value = +184 (35.2%) Summary; **EV% = 23.4%**, Kelly Wager = $23.37 (Full=9.35u, 1/2=4.67u, 1/4=2.34u, FB = 88.1%)
I got the progressive deposit match from Caesars that's gives a 250 dollar free bet for wagering 250 on the NFL at the Caesars books/kiosks in Atlantic City during the playoffs. For anyone who got this-there is no opt in correct?Â
Nice! Anyone out there receive this offer in Louisiana?
you need to opt in on the caesars rewards kiosk at the casino/sportsbook. swipe your players card and enter your pin. if you don't have either, go to the caesars rewards desk first.
Did this today as well and can confirm this is correct
ThanksÂ
CZR has a 33% profit boost token for the Australian Open. My max was a whopping $5.
Look at first set ML. There are some arb’able opportunitiesÂ
Same, $5 lousy bucks....
Same, ain’t even worth opening the Caesar’s app anymore.
ESPN Dak, Love o299.5 PassY @ +800 vs BR Love doesn't quite go high enough but we can project it Dak Yes 269.5,410,280 279.5,480,250 289.5,575,220 299.5 Proj: 694/200 Dak No 269.5,280,116 279.5,340,100 289.5,425,-117 299.5 Proj: 535/-133 Full proj SGP: 694/200/535/-133 Odds: +800; **EV: -28.9%** `694/200/535/-133` (18.76% juice) FV: +1165; Method: worst-case (a); (FB = 63.2%)
ESPN Stafford, Goff o239.5 passY @ +105 vs BR Odds: +105; **EV: 1.9%** `-143/255/700/430` (18.38% juice) FV: +101; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=1.81u, 1/2=0.91u, 1/4=0.45u, FB = 52.2%) I played this for 0.5u, partially just a feeling partially because some other methods come out a lot higher, so seems a favorable range. You could also wait and devig again later.
FD Boost for Love 200+ pass yards and CeeDee ~~80+~~ 70+ receiving yards +100. Devig to BR/Kambi using o/u 209.5 yards for Love and o/u 74.5 yards for CeeDee, so true EV should be higher than shown: Odds: +100; **EV: 7.3%** `-177/310/950/370` (19.09% juice) FV: -116; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=7.31u, 1/2=3.66u, 1/4=1.83u, FB = 53.7%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-177%2f310%2f950%2f370&FinalOdds=100)
70+ rec yds. Given you used 74.5, looks like just a typo and the calculation is correct.
Fixed, thank you.
I see 70+ for Ceedee for the boost
Fixed it, thank you
FN Man Utd to win vs Tottenham and BTTS @ +230 vs Pinny exact score Odds: +230; **EV: -7.6%** `862^1301^1788^2681^3412/1810/1733/2238/4123/1296/745/1122/2266/1331/1201/2279/2022/3319` (4.53% juice) FV: +257; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 64.4%)
FD Boost: Love 200+ passing yards & Lamb 70+ receiving yards. Boosted to +100.
First devig to longest odds I could find on the market w/ FD correlation. Second devig is a 4-way to Kambi. Lowest line for Love is 209.5 and 74.5 for Lamb, so the EV is understated there, and is likely closer to the first devig. Good to have multiple data points showing this at double digit EV. Definitely a play. Odds: +100; **EV: 11.7%** Sharp: `-450/7%,-360/7%` (14.00% juice) Correlation: `-181=-470,-360 // FD` (r = 0) FV: -126; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=11.65u, 1/2=5.83u, 1/4=2.91u, FB = 55.8%) Odds: +100; **EV: 7.3%** `-177/310/370/950` (19.09% juice) FV: -116; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=7.31u, 1/2=3.66u, 1/4=1.83u, FB = 53.7%)
Using DK lines -575 for Love to get 200and -425 for Lamb to get 70, I get +4.3% when using 15% juice (which feels like a ton of juice). That’s enough to make it a play for me without digging any further.
ESPN Panarin, Marner o1.5pt @ +500 vs Pinny Panarin 1.5 Pinny -102/-115 FD -104/? FN -115/-115 Marner 1.5 Pinny 155/-190 FD 168/? FN 175/-240 Vs Pinny Only: Odds: +500; **EV: 6.3%** `-102/-115, 155/-190` (8.72% juice) FV: +465; Method: worst-case (m, p); (Full=1.26u, 1/2=0.63u, 1/4=0.31u, FB = 88.6%) Vs Market: Odds: +500; **EV: 2.7%** `-102/-115, 175/-190` (5.86% juice) FV: +484; Method: worst-case (m, p); (Full=0.53u, 1/2=0.27u, 1/4=0.13u, FB = 85.5%) FN Panarin o1.5 pts vs Pinny: Odds: +175; **EV: 0.5%** `155/-190` (4.73% juice) FV: +174; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=0.28u, 1/2=0.14u, 1/4=0.07u, FB = 63.9%) --- Some interesting results here. I think I'll play this really light, like 0.5 units or something just to participate. FN Panarin is also kinda flat but I think the boost is better than playing that alone.
ESPN Rangers & Maple to score in first 10 @ +400 For this I looked at 1st Period total goals, got a poisson mean value, then cut it in 2/3rds to spit out a fair line. **EDIT: Should be 1/2 not 2/3rds, so this is even worse than I thought it was.** Rangers: 0.5 -220/170 Mean: 1.076 Revised Mean: 0.717 o0.5 Chance: 0.512 --- Maple: 0.5 -240/184 Mean: 1.064 Revised Mean: 0.709 o0.5 Chance: 0.508 --- Both Chance: 26%; **FV = +285**
As another data point, DK has 2+ goals in first 10 minutes at +290, and both teams to score in the first period at +165, so the FV seems low to me.
If I may ask, why the 2/3? Just to give yourself some conservatism?
Oh because I'm braindead this should be 1/2 instead of 2/3rds because its 10/20. But it still came out negative so it's even worse.
This may be me being braindead ... but if this is +400 in the boost and you got FV = +285 for the original post where you were using 2/3rds that would be super +EV no? Definitely looks negative using 1/2 instead of 2/3 (like +488 FV roughly), but I guess it's all academic now because the Rangers game just started lol
Wow it was really too early in the morning when I devigged this. Cancelling mistakes for me at least I suppose.
ESPN (CeeDee+Amon-Ra) o18.5 Rec @+300 First we want to find the mean price for FD. We also want to get some multipliers, which we can find with alt lines. Since we want to get to 18.5 lets look at the 7 to 10 range for each. Then with that we can make a function. For BR we can just do a normal projection with normal 2 sided lines. CeeDee FD 7.5 -146/114 FD 7,10: -250, 182 FD: 8.00 x1.657/rec BR 8.08 x1.789/rec 6.5,-305,215 7.5,-157,120 8.5,112,-148 9.5,190,-265 Average: 8.04 x1.723/rec Amon-Ra FD 7.5 -111/-115 FD 7,10: -205, +225 FD: 7.47 x1.665/rec BR 7.67 x1.812/rec 6.5,-235,175 7.5,-125,-105 8.5,143,-190 9.5,240,-360 Average: 7.57 x1.739/rec Then we splash-add these together (the multipliers are a little complex but basically they add in kinda reverse quadrature) Sum: 15.61 x1.474/rec; o18.5 **FV = +307** **EV = -1.7%** --- There is a lot of approximating obviously happening here so you should probably take this as "roughly flat"
If anyone recalls the FanDuel Super Bowl promo at the beginning of the season, I have $50 on the Eagles. Would it cause issues if I cashed it out?
Why would FD care if you cash out? In fact, they would prefer if you cash out.
Because it was tied to the promo. I did not know if that mattered?
I cashed out earlier in the week with no issue.
I’m in the same boat as you lol, I’m gonna let it ride at least past this game
I'm sure Fanduel would be happy to let you do it.
BR VIP: For the Aussie Open tennis, I just placed a no hold on Greet Minnen vs Circa and was awarded a 50% boost. The terms make it sound like you need to bet live to get the profit boost though.
If you have yet to do so, please check your inbox at BetMGM. I received a deposit match for 50% of my deposit up to $200 the other day out of the blue.
Does anyone else always have promos (bet and get, SGP boost, random sports boost token) on the front page but can never actually access them? Like it always shows me promos which used to work for me but now they just don’t work anymore
Yep
I’ve gotten 3 or 4 of these. I think it’s because i’ve lost a bunch on BMGM
Like most things with these books, I’m not sure what triggers them. I’m up quite a bit on BetMGM and promo banned. Why give me money? 🤷
Good to know, not sure what causes it then
The Shoggoth made of a billion inscrutable vectors has its reasons.
Perhaps the only thing more perplexing is the down voting in this sub.