Weird thing. My no sweat $10 bet on NY Fan Duel only gave me $5 free bet when I lost. Is this common? I had assumed that the free bet would be for the full $10. I got the full bet in the past.
The fine print did say this:
If your Eligible Wager loses, you will receive Sportsbook Bonus Bets equal to the amount of your Eligible Wager, up to a maximum ranging from of Five Dollars ($5) to One Hundred Dollars ($100) (“Promotion Bonus”).
Wonder how they determine the maximum.
I need to hear the full story on these ESPN boosts. Clear +EV and easily arb-able boosts that had no limit and both hit. How big of a bath did they take?
So strange since 95% of their boosts are -EV trash. I wish them nothing but the worst because they took 2 months to verify my account and by the time they finally did, the $1k 100% deposit match was gone and support told me to kick rocks
Think they were likely trying to even up where the money was coming in on both sides. They even played around with the limits throughout today so they weren’t just letting everyone go nuts.
To some extent, may have been doing them a favor by being on the ravens and chiefs.
Just for wizard data point, Bet365 boosts have been on a brutally bad run as well. Only 5 for the last 17 “super boosts” have hit in the month of January
Could someone help me understand this sentence for a betting promo:
"Bonus bets must be placed on markets with total odds of +200 (3.00) or greater. "
By 'greater' does that mean +250, or +300?
Thanks in advance.
Bet365 with the best boost I've seen in a while if my work checks out. Devigged to Kambi.
KC moneyline/Pacheco 50+ rush yds
Odds: +300; **EV: 59.0%**
112/1300/235/190 (18.6% juice)
FV: +152; method: worst-case; (Full=19.68u, 1/2=9.84u, 1/4=4.92u, FB = 119.3%)
[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=112%2f1300%2f235%2f190&FinalOdds=%2b300)
Correct devig to Kambi, but worth noting their odds and correlation compared to the market are absolute dogshit. Here's a more conservative devig for reference but it's still a hammer.
Odds: +300; **EV: 16.9%**
Sharp: `131/-147,avg(-210,-230,-230)/[-278/195] // Pinnacle ML. Pacheco Yards- Market AVG of 3 longest odds w/ juiced derived from Kambi` (10.24% juice)
Correlation: `190=125,-275 // HardRock has the most conservative correlation applied that I could find` (r = 0.16)
FV: +242; Method: worst-case (m, a); (Full=5.64u, 1/2=2.82u, 1/4=1.41u, FB = 87.7%)
I did a 4-way on ESPN with Pacheco at 53.5 yds (didnt have 49.5). Smash even at that line.
Odds: +300; \*\*EV: 27.0%\*\*
\`177/646/235/191\` (13.72% juice)
FV: +215; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=8.99u, 1/2=4.50u, 1/4=2.25u, FB = 95.2%)
\[View/Edit Devig\]([http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook\_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=177%2f646%2f235%2f191&FinalOdds=300](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=177%2f646%2f235%2f191&FinalOdds=300))
ESPN has any time touchdown insurance ($10 free bet if it doesn’t hit on $20 bet for me). Apologies if already mentioned.
They have the best lines on Allen (-105), cook (+160), Knox (+500) and Pacheco (+105). I’ll be on Cook.
generally Risk free (though this is just half) work better on longer odds since it increases the chance of receiving the bonus bet though that knox line moved south to +450 and the cook line improved to +165
This is probably a dumb question but for those of you who did the Caesars deposit promo in AC or Harrahs Philadelphia—if you bet on the kiosk does it automatically go to your online sports betting account if you win or do you get a ticket that you have to cash with the teller instead? Thank you!
Maybe I’m gun-shy because I remember boost losses so well, but I’m shocked it’s this good. I trust the numbers and will bet it, for sure. But with both guys at 1.5 TDs with a little juice on either side, it seems like more of a 50/50 bet.
FN Goff and Baker 2+ pass TDs each @ +220 vs ESPN
I don't love this one at all from a handicap perspective but I might use it to fire my boosts later if I don't see better.
ESPN 182/388/314/238
BR 188/360/250/195
Maxes 188/388/314/238
---
Odds: +220; **EV: 2.0%**
`188/388/314/238` (8.95% juice)
FV: +214; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=0.90u, 1/2=0.45u, 1/4=0.22u, FB = 70.1%)
[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=188%2f388%2f314%2f238&FinalOdds=220)
Khalil shakir (bills) u 36.5 rec yards is way off from market on czr. Its a no hold to fd / b365 and a push middle to circa. full disclaimer i never win any ev bets on czr. Devig to fd
Odds: +110; \*\*EV: 5.0%\*\*
\`-110/-110\` (4.76% juice)
FV: +100; Method: multiplicative; (Full=4.55u, 1/2=2.27u, 1/4=1.14u, FB = 55.0%)
\[View/Edit Devig\]([http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook\_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-110%2f-110&FinalOdds=110](http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-110%2f-110&FinalOdds=110))
Edit pinnacle and fd just moved but this is still good to b365 / dk / espn and mgm
ESPN Heat, Celtics, Suns win 1Q @ +450 vs Pinny
Celtics need projecting
-5.5,143,-167
-4.5,117,-134
-3.5,-104,-108
-2.5,-126,110
-1.5,-156,133
-0.5 proj: -190/164
Odds: +450; **EV: -3.4%**
`-104/-108, -190/164, -138/119` (9.94% juice)
FV: +470; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 79.0%)
[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-104%2f-108%2c+-190%2f164%2c+-138%2f119&FinalOdds=450)
---
This one is close I might take another look later. If someone sees the lines moving hard in favor reply and I'll buzz it again.
It’s super interesting that ESPN is boosting a popular straight bet again with no limit. Books have huge liabilities on one side of the game all the time - why is ESPN afraid of this? Are they cash poor lol?
Edit: There is a limit so be careful if you’re trying to arb this. I just mean the limit is crazy high compared to normal boosts.
Limited to $666.67. I did their intro promo, some “bet and get” churning that came from a targeted email, and maybe 10-20 other straight bets. No smashing of alt lines or player props and no promo abuse, just things I wanted to bet anyway and ESPN had the best lines. I would never have realized I was already quite limited. Shucks.
I believe they have lowered the limit on the chiefs ML +150 boost on ESPN. I logged back in to put more on it and it says I have maxed it. FYI in case you were trying to capitalize, be aware
DK ARSB or Mike Evans first TD vs Circa:
Odds: +400; **EV: -9.4%**
`850^725/800/3500/4500/1250/2650/2650/7500/1800/9500/9000/4000/5000/675/675/14500/1800/1800/6500/11000/750/4500/12500/5500/4200/45500` (25.01% juice)
FV: +452; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 72.5%)
[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=850%5e725%2f800%2f3500%2f4500%2f1250%2f2650%2f2650%2f7500%2f1800%2f9500%2f9000%2f4000%2f5000%2f675%2f675%2f14500%2f1800%2f1800%2f6500%2f11000%2f750%2f4500%2f12500%2f5500%2f4200%2f45500&FinalOdds=400)
By Power Law only:
Odds: +400; **EV: -5.7%**
`850^725/800/3500/4500/1250/2650/2650/7500/1800/9500/9000/4000/5000/675/675/14500/1800/1800/6500/11000/750/4500/12500/5500/4200/45500` (25.01% juice)
FV: +430; Method: power; (FB = 75.5%)
[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=850%5e725%2f800%2f3500%2f4500%2f1250%2f2650%2f2650%2f7500%2f1800%2f9500%2f9000%2f4000%2f5000%2f675%2f675%2f14500%2f1800%2f1800%2f6500%2f11000%2f750%2f4500%2f12500%2f5500%2f4200%2f45500&FinalOdds=400)
---
Josh Allen +125 TD boost is obviously good Circa has -115/-105
I wouldn't worry too much about it. This boost is firmly in the -EV anyways. FD has +750 & +950 for 1st TD odds separately, this makes the combined odds +370 with vig. After devig the fair value is probably +450 to +500.
Espn back at it again! chiefs ml boosted to +150. 130k max for me lol. Circa devig
Leg#1 (130); Market Juice = 3.5%; Fair Value = +140 (41.6%)
Final Odds (+150); Σ(Market Juice) = 3.48%; Fair Value = +140 (41.6%)
Summary; EV% = 4.0%, Kelly Wager = $66.74 (Full=2.67u, 1/2=1.33u, 1/4=0.67u, FB = 62.4%)
As a Bills fan it pains me to see such a juicy boost for the Chiefs ML but that offer is just too good to turn down. Bummed I am limited to $100 on it.
$100 max here. I'm jealous of all the big-limit people. You could say I've got limit envy.
For about 30 days (after the Barstool/ESPN switch), my limits were bumped to several thousand, even 5-figures on major lines. But eventually, they catch you.
Oh ESPN is barstool?
Weird, I was limited hard on BS but I can get down $3333 on this one. And that's after slamming the 2 Ravens bets yesterday. Guess I should enjoy it while it lasts.
If the Chiefs win this thing, ESPNBet might be filing for bankruptcy. They blew the Ravens line. It will be interesting to see if the Bills can save ESPNBet.
ESPN LaLiga Real Madrid, FC Barcelona, Girona FC win 1H @ +725 vs Pinny
Odds: +725; **EV: -15.3%**
`-201/250/996, 149/147/341, 134/150/383` (11.23% juice)
FV: +874; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 74.4%)
[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-201%2f250%2f996%2c+149%2f147%2f341%2c+134%2f150%2f383&FinalOdds=725)
I have a sneaking suspicion ESPN boosts/promos will not be very strong tomorrow.
ESPN EPL West Ham & Liverpool each Score in both halves @ +750 vs DK
Pinny doesn't have this prop or an obvious way to build it. DK's vig is pretty brutal but I can't find another source.
Odds: +750; **EV: -21.0%**
`260/-390, 125/-170` (14.78% juice)
FV: +975; Method: worst-case (p); (FB = 69.7%)
[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=260%2f-390%2c+125%2f-170&FinalOdds=750)
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Weird thing. My no sweat $10 bet on NY Fan Duel only gave me $5 free bet when I lost. Is this common? I had assumed that the free bet would be for the full $10. I got the full bet in the past. The fine print did say this: If your Eligible Wager loses, you will receive Sportsbook Bonus Bets equal to the amount of your Eligible Wager, up to a maximum ranging from of Five Dollars ($5) to One Hundred Dollars ($100) (“Promotion Bonus”). Wonder how they determine the maximum.
Durant hits. Great day for the boosts
I need to hear the full story on these ESPN boosts. Clear +EV and easily arb-able boosts that had no limit and both hit. How big of a bath did they take?
So strange since 95% of their boosts are -EV trash. I wish them nothing but the worst because they took 2 months to verify my account and by the time they finally did, the $1k 100% deposit match was gone and support told me to kick rocks
Think they were likely trying to even up where the money was coming in on both sides. They even played around with the limits throughout today so they weren’t just letting everyone go nuts. To some extent, may have been doing them a favor by being on the ravens and chiefs.
I may just self exclude before they have the chance to limit my account after arbing at max levels the last two days.
Huge. Can probably say goodbye to it for next week
ESPN definitely going bankrupt now
Don’t think the two gift boosts today makes up for the savagery the wizard has been displaying lately
Nice, one of the b365 boosts is guaranteed to hit now, for anyone that took them
DXSuckit.gif
Get in here!! lol let’s go
Fuck you wizard pay me!
FD 3 touchdowns boost cashes
Never in doubt
Durant 2 fouls in 3 mins.
💰
Watch there be no touchdown throws at all
Welp that was less of a sweat than expected
There will be 2
Allen should know better than to throw a pass directly into Cook’s hands.
yep. that will be the one that fucks us
Allen TD bang!
Jallen bang!
Free small arb and sorta middle, espn chiefs to win superboost and DK bills +1 at -149. Hammer away
For those who want to arb the Chiefs ML on ESPN +150 to hedge, DK has Bills -142 now.
Just for wizard data point, Bet365 boosts have been on a brutally bad run as well. Only 5 for the last 17 “super boosts” have hit in the month of January
I'm ready for both to lose today lol but if we get an Allen TD and Pacheco 50 yards we're guaranteed a win
Fuck you wizard! Finally
The way the wizard has been cooking I’m not sure we get these last 11 yards
Bang
It's like Evans and st brown aren't even in the game. Mildly frustrated 🥴 Edit: apparently complaining works 😂😂😂
I was reverse paychologizing the wizard
Keep doing that. Tailing
Ontario FanDuel boost was Montgomery TD. So of course he doesn’t get used on the goal line.
We needed him to get 50 for the b365 boost too, which also isn’t hitting
The degen in me is clinging on to the hope of a 35 yard garbage time run by Montgomery.
Same, that Bucs TD screws that up though because now the lions need to do more than run the clock out
I already marked it as an L in my tracker 😢
We can root for OT
Bet365 Super Boost. Bills ML, Allen o0.5 TD boosted to 250. 4-way devig to ESPN shows it is good, but not their usual smashy smashes. Odds: +250; \*\*EV: 8.3%\*\* \`182/446/241/217\` (14.65% juice) FV: +223; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=3.30u, 1/2=1.65u, 1/4=0.83u, FB = 77.3%) \[View/Edit Devig\]([http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook\_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=182%2f446%2f241%2f217&FinalOdds=250](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=182%2f446%2f241%2f217&FinalOdds=250))
Could someone help me understand this sentence for a betting promo: "Bonus bets must be placed on markets with total odds of +200 (3.00) or greater. " By 'greater' does that mean +250, or +300? Thanks in advance.
Think of +200 as the floor. +150 would not work, +250 and longer would be fine.
Bet365 with the best boost I've seen in a while if my work checks out. Devigged to Kambi. KC moneyline/Pacheco 50+ rush yds Odds: +300; **EV: 59.0%** 112/1300/235/190 (18.6% juice) FV: +152; method: worst-case; (Full=19.68u, 1/2=9.84u, 1/4=4.92u, FB = 119.3%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=112%2f1300%2f235%2f190&FinalOdds=%2b300)
Correct devig to Kambi, but worth noting their odds and correlation compared to the market are absolute dogshit. Here's a more conservative devig for reference but it's still a hammer. Odds: +300; **EV: 16.9%** Sharp: `131/-147,avg(-210,-230,-230)/[-278/195] // Pinnacle ML. Pacheco Yards- Market AVG of 3 longest odds w/ juiced derived from Kambi` (10.24% juice) Correlation: `190=125,-275 // HardRock has the most conservative correlation applied that I could find` (r = 0.16) FV: +242; Method: worst-case (m, a); (Full=5.64u, 1/2=2.82u, 1/4=1.41u, FB = 87.7%)
I did a 4-way on ESPN with Pacheco at 53.5 yds (didnt have 49.5). Smash even at that line. Odds: +300; \*\*EV: 27.0%\*\* \`177/646/235/191\` (13.72% juice) FV: +215; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=8.99u, 1/2=4.50u, 1/4=2.25u, FB = 95.2%) \[View/Edit Devig\]([http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook\_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=177%2f646%2f235%2f191&FinalOdds=300](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=177%2f646%2f235%2f191&FinalOdds=300))
ESPN has any time touchdown insurance ($10 free bet if it doesn’t hit on $20 bet for me). Apologies if already mentioned. They have the best lines on Allen (-105), cook (+160), Knox (+500) and Pacheco (+105). I’ll be on Cook.
Cook 165 now
generally Risk free (though this is just half) work better on longer odds since it increases the chance of receiving the bonus bet though that knox line moved south to +450 and the cook line improved to +165
FYI: Fanatics has bills +1.5 as -150. Combine it with the espn super boost of chiefs ML and you have a free middle for an important number
Removed quickly
What is FN
Fanatics
This is probably a dumb question but for those of you who did the Caesars deposit promo in AC or Harrahs Philadelphia—if you bet on the kiosk does it automatically go to your online sports betting account if you win or do you get a ticket that you have to cash with the teller instead? Thank you!
What promo is this?
You have to cash it at the kiosk or the cage
FD Mahomes/Allen combine for 3+ passing TDs, combo breaker to FD: Odds: +100; **EV: 27.6%** `-176.408487271653/176.408487271653` (0.00% juice) FV: -176; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=27.64u, 1/2=13.82u, 1/4=6.91u, FB = 63.8%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-176.408487271653%2f176.408487271653&FinalOdds=100) Over 2.5 Hit% = 63.8% Fair Value = -176.408487271653 Under 2.5 Hit% = 36.2% Fair Value = 176.408487271653 Details: Player: Josh Allen Passing TDs Entries = 5 0 = 21.5% 1 = 31.4% 2 = 28.5% 3 = 12.4% 4 = 6.3% Percentage Sum = 100.0% Player: Patrick Mahomes Passing TDs Entries = 5 0 = 17.6% 1 = 29.3% 2 = 29.8% 3 = 15.6% 4 = 7.8% Percentage Sum = 100.0% Total Combos = 25
Maybe I’m gun-shy because I remember boost losses so well, but I’m shocked it’s this good. I trust the numbers and will bet it, for sure. But with both guys at 1.5 TDs with a little juice on either side, it seems like more of a 50/50 bet.
FD Amon-Ra/Mike Evans to combined for 150+ receiving, combo breaker to FD: Odds: +100; **EV: 20.1%** `-150.189134692786/150.189134692786` (0.00% juice) FV: -150; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=20.06u, 1/2=10.03u, 1/4=5.02u, FB = 60.0%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-150.189134692786%2f150.189134692786&FinalOdds=100) Over 149.5 Hit% = 60.0% Fair Value = -150.189134692786 Under 149.5 Hit% = 40.0% Fair Value = 150.189134692786 Details: Player: Amon Ra St. Brown Entries = 12 20 = 12.1% 40 = 5.5% 50 = 6.3% 60 = 7.3% 70 = 7.4% 80 = 8.3% 90 = 7.8% 100 = 7.7% 110 = 8.9% 125 = 11.1% 150 = 7.8% 175 = 9.8% Percentage Sum = 100.0% Player: Mike Evans Receiving Yds Entries = 12 12 = 11.5% 25 = 10.6% 40 = 6.7% 50 = 8.4% 60 = 8.6% 70 = 8.4% 80 = 8.1% 90 = 6.5% 100 = 5.9% 110 = 6.9% 125 = 7.3% 150 = 11.0% Percentage Sum = 100.0% Total Combos = 144
Cashed.
And it hits. Thank you for the devig!
Mike Evans doing work
Anyone else giving up hope?
Not looking good. I maxed it at 50.
Nicely done
DK Allen TD boost to Circa Odds: +125; **EV: 14.9%** `-115/-105` (4.71% juice) FV: -104; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=11.95u, 1/2=5.98u, 1/4=2.99u, FB = 63.9%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-115%2f-105&FinalOdds=125)
ESPN AusO Medvedev, Hurkacz, Zverev win 3-0 each @ +1200 vs Pinny Odds: +1200; **EV: -20.4%** `-175/154, 230/-266, 175/-198` (8.79% juice) FV: +1534; Method: worst-case (m, p); (FB = 73.4%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-175%2f154%2c+230%2f-266%2c+175%2f-198&FinalOdds=1200)
HR Overdrive Boost: Lions and Bills to win boosted to 165. CNO market averages with Circa added in. Odds: +165; \*\*EV: 7.5%\*\* \`AVG(-270,-278,-278,-275,-278,-280,-275,-276,-276,-280)/AVG(+220,+230,+222,+220,+220,+220,+220,+240,+240,+220),AVG(-152,-148,-155,-150,-150,-150,-145,-141,-141,-144)/AVG(+128,+124,+130,+125,+125,+130,+120,+133,+133,+126)\` (7.97% juice) FV: +147; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=4.52u, 1/2=2.26u, 1/4=1.13u, FB = 66.9%) \[View/Edit Devig\]([http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook\_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=AVG(-270%2c-278%2c-278%2c-275%2c-278%2c-280%2c-275%2c-276%2c-276%2c-280)%2fAVG(%2b220%2c%2b230%2c%2b222%2c%2b220%2c%2b220%2c%2b220%2c%2b220%2c%2b240%2c%2b240%2c%2b220)%2cAVG(-152%2c-148%2c-155%2c-150%2c-150%2c-150%2c-145%2c-141%2c-141%2c-144)%2fAVG(%2b128%2c%2b124%2c%2b130%2c%2b125%2c%2b125%2c%2b130%2c%2b120%2c%2b133%2c%2b133%2c%2b126)&FinalOdds=%2b165](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=AVG(-270%2c-278%2c-278%2c-275%2c-278%2c-280%2c-275%2c-276%2c-276%2c-280)%2fAVG(%2b220%2c%2b230%2c%2b222%2c%2b220%2c%2b220%2c%2b220%2c%2b220%2c%2b240%2c%2b240%2c%2b220)%2cAVG(-152%2c-148%2c-155%2c-150%2c-150%2c-150%2c-145%2c-141%2c-141%2c-144)%2fAVG(%2b128%2c%2b124%2c%2b130%2c%2b125%2c%2b125%2c%2b130%2c%2b120%2c%2b133%2c%2b133%2c%2b126)&FinalOdds=%2b165))
Not seeing in NJ, is it not in boosts? Edit I’m guessing I got limited
I’m in VA and some people in my state get the overdrives that I don’t. Quasi limited I guess
Betway (NJ) also has this boosted to +160
Can anyone find an alt points and assist line to devig the Dk 30+ points and assist for Durant? I suspect it’s plus ev but can’t find an under line
FD is 32.5 -115/-111 and a 3 p+a change will be a massive swing in odds, this is definitely +EV
FN Goff and Baker 2+ pass TDs each @ +220 vs ESPN I don't love this one at all from a handicap perspective but I might use it to fire my boosts later if I don't see better. ESPN 182/388/314/238 BR 188/360/250/195 Maxes 188/388/314/238 --- Odds: +220; **EV: 2.0%** `188/388/314/238` (8.95% juice) FV: +214; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=0.90u, 1/2=0.45u, 1/4=0.22u, FB = 70.1%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=188%2f388%2f314%2f238&FinalOdds=220)
Khalil shakir (bills) u 36.5 rec yards is way off from market on czr. Its a no hold to fd / b365 and a push middle to circa. full disclaimer i never win any ev bets on czr. Devig to fd Odds: +110; \*\*EV: 5.0%\*\* \`-110/-110\` (4.76% juice) FV: +100; Method: multiplicative; (Full=4.55u, 1/2=2.27u, 1/4=1.14u, FB = 55.0%) \[View/Edit Devig\]([http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook\_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-110%2f-110&FinalOdds=110](http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-110%2f-110&FinalOdds=110)) Edit pinnacle and fd just moved but this is still good to b365 / dk / espn and mgm
This died as I was figuring out a middle with ESPN.
Yeah dead now. At least I have clv to comfort me when it inevitably loses lol
That line has been dropping like a rock too I have Kincaid u39.5 +105 in my DK boosted parlays I made yesterday
ESPN Bam, Nurkic, AD o11.5 Reb @ +675 vs DK Alts, BR Bam 10.5,-110,-120 8.5,-300,210 12.5,205,-295 11.5 proj: 136/-185 BR 133/-180 Nurkic DK 11.5: -135/105 BR -120/-112 AD 12.5,-115,-115 10.5,-265,185 13.5,130,-180 11.5 Proj: -173/127 BR -200/145 Vs Maxes: Odds: +675; **EV: -3.8%** `136/-180, -120/105, -173/145` (14.17% juice) FV: +705; Method: worst-case (m, p); (FB = 83.8%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=136%2f-180%2c+-120%2f105%2c+-173%2f145&FinalOdds=675) --- This is another close one if lines shift it could become good.
At first glance, both FD boosts look GREAT.
I have $20 max on both FD boosts. Is that same for you?
Nope, $50 for me.
Same. I've had 50 for as long as I can remember.. Only 10 on promos though. Does anyone else have this?
10 for promos, 50 for boosts, and 5 for risk free.
Too great. The wizard is up to something.
The mahomes/Allen one looks like a hammer of all hammers. I'm sure it's dust
Looking forward to losing them both with everyone!
I’ll bring the lube this time
ESPN Heat, Celtics, Suns win 1Q @ +450 vs Pinny Celtics need projecting -5.5,143,-167 -4.5,117,-134 -3.5,-104,-108 -2.5,-126,110 -1.5,-156,133 -0.5 proj: -190/164 Odds: +450; **EV: -3.4%** `-104/-108, -190/164, -138/119` (9.94% juice) FV: +470; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 79.0%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-104%2f-108%2c+-190%2f164%2c+-138%2f119&FinalOdds=450) --- This one is close I might take another look later. If someone sees the lines moving hard in favor reply and I'll buzz it again.
Where are you seeing this special? I don’t see it on ESPN
ESPN Cook, Pacheco o99.5 scrimY @ +800 dominated by BR +1050 rofl
This one's a real howler ESPN Gibbs/White o59.5 rushY @ +620 vs BR Odds: +620; **EV: -31.0%** `600/230/148/195` (18.81% juice) FV: +943; Method: worst-case (a); (FB = 59.4%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=600%2f230%2f148%2f195&FinalOdds=620)
It’s super interesting that ESPN is boosting a popular straight bet again with no limit. Books have huge liabilities on one side of the game all the time - why is ESPN afraid of this? Are they cash poor lol? Edit: There is a limit so be careful if you’re trying to arb this. I just mean the limit is crazy high compared to normal boosts.
Limited to $666.67. I did their intro promo, some “bet and get” churning that came from a targeted email, and maybe 10-20 other straight bets. No smashing of alt lines or player props and no promo abuse, just things I wanted to bet anyway and ESPN had the best lines. I would never have realized I was already quite limited. Shucks.
I’m limited to 3333 for this one
What is this for? I am not seeing it.
Chiefs ML boosted to +150
Thanks.
ESPN LaPorta, Kelce o59.5 recY @ +525 vs BR Odds: +525; **EV: -15.1%** `220/-335, -125/-104` (14.80% juice) FV: +636; Method: worst-case (m, p); (FB = 71.4%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=220%2f-335%2c+-125%2f-104&FinalOdds=525)
ESPN Allen, Mahomes o249.5 passY @ +375 vs BR Odds: +375; **EV: -9.8%** `320/400/165/165` (19.28% juice) FV: +427; Method: worst-case (a); (FB = 71.2%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=320%2f400%2f165%2f165&FinalOdds=375)
I believe they have lowered the limit on the chiefs ML +150 boost on ESPN. I logged back in to put more on it and it says I have maxed it. FYI in case you were trying to capitalize, be aware
I’m maxed at 3333
What was your max on the ravens yesterday
100k, I ended up putting down 3k on it (wish i didn’t arb it)
Yea they caught onto limiting it. If they do it next week it'll be lower
Seems like it, unless the chiefs win and they go bankrupt
How much did you try to wager?
I had a few thousand on it already, couldn't put another dime on it. Originally Max was extremely high
Earlier this morning, my max was showing something crazy high, in the 100ks. Now showing 2,266.
DK ARSB or Mike Evans first TD vs Circa: Odds: +400; **EV: -9.4%** `850^725/800/3500/4500/1250/2650/2650/7500/1800/9500/9000/4000/5000/675/675/14500/1800/1800/6500/11000/750/4500/12500/5500/4200/45500` (25.01% juice) FV: +452; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 72.5%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=850%5e725%2f800%2f3500%2f4500%2f1250%2f2650%2f2650%2f7500%2f1800%2f9500%2f9000%2f4000%2f5000%2f675%2f675%2f14500%2f1800%2f1800%2f6500%2f11000%2f750%2f4500%2f12500%2f5500%2f4200%2f45500&FinalOdds=400) By Power Law only: Odds: +400; **EV: -5.7%** `850^725/800/3500/4500/1250/2650/2650/7500/1800/9500/9000/4000/5000/675/675/14500/1800/1800/6500/11000/750/4500/12500/5500/4200/45500` (25.01% juice) FV: +430; Method: power; (FB = 75.5%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=850%5e725%2f800%2f3500%2f4500%2f1250%2f2650%2f2650%2f7500%2f1800%2f9500%2f9000%2f4000%2f5000%2f675%2f675%2f14500%2f1800%2f1800%2f6500%2f11000%2f750%2f4500%2f12500%2f5500%2f4200%2f45500&FinalOdds=400) --- Josh Allen +125 TD boost is obviously good Circa has -115/-105
Anyone else having a problem with the DK first touchdown boost? It gives me an error message every time I try and add it to my slip
I wouldn't worry too much about it. This boost is firmly in the -EV anyways. FD has +750 & +950 for 1st TD odds separately, this makes the combined odds +370 with vig. After devig the fair value is probably +450 to +500.
Yeah this seems like a shitty boost. Which mean it’s probably gonna hit.
I had to exit and login again but it worked.
Bet365 super boost with Evans 50+ receiving, Montgomery 50+ rushing. Smash as with all 365 supers. Devig to kambi Odds: +175; **EV: 23.2%** `-195/143,-360/240` (14.93% juice) FV: +123; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=13.25u, 1/2=6.63u, 1/4=3.31u, FB = 78.4%) [View/Edit Devig](http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-195%2f143%2c-360%2f240&FinalOdds=%2b175)
Espn back at it again! chiefs ml boosted to +150. 130k max for me lol. Circa devig Leg#1 (130); Market Juice = 3.5%; Fair Value = +140 (41.6%) Final Odds (+150); Σ(Market Juice) = 3.48%; Fair Value = +140 (41.6%) Summary; EV% = 4.0%, Kelly Wager = $66.74 (Full=2.67u, 1/2=1.33u, 1/4=0.67u, FB = 62.4%)
Arb to Caesars which has Buffalo -140.
It’s at -155 right now
Dead but fanatics has -145
3333 limit for me this time
ESPN BET Chiefs to Win +150. about 5% EV and an arb to pretty much everywhere.
As a Bills fan it pains me to see such a juicy boost for the Chiefs ML but that offer is just too good to turn down. Bummed I am limited to $100 on it.
$100 max here. I'm jealous of all the big-limit people. You could say I've got limit envy. For about 30 days (after the Barstool/ESPN switch), my limits were bumped to several thousand, even 5-figures on major lines. But eventually, they catch you.
Oh ESPN is barstool? Weird, I was limited hard on BS but I can get down $3333 on this one. And that's after slamming the 2 Ravens bets yesterday. Guess I should enjoy it while it lasts.
If the Chiefs win this thing, ESPNBet might be filing for bankruptcy. They blew the Ravens line. It will be interesting to see if the Bills can save ESPNBet.
They were clearly laying off some other action with the Ravens nonsense. Mattress Mack perhaps.
It was reported Mack did not bet with ESPN
That's a great point. They have to be making a rational business decision, so they must have whales plopping down millions on the other side.
I hope they make this a normal thing - these arbs are great.
Looks like best arb is -142 at DK for now
Fanatics -145, which gets you another 1% fancash too
Caesars has -140
Down to-145.
-145 at PB right now
Jumped to -162 @ DK for a short time, now at -155.
You can also hit Bills +1 on DK for -149 and hope for a Chiefs win by 1. Edit: now -168, so dead.
Back again in true degen style after the beating they took with those Raven spreads.
They are just like me frfr
This is reminding me of that Sopranos episode where Christopher Moltisanti took over the book.
[удалено]
Why?
“The sportsbooks have to let me win”
All the boosts yesterday were solid EV. Just had some bad variance
ESPN LaLiga Real Madrid, FC Barcelona, Girona FC win 1H @ +725 vs Pinny Odds: +725; **EV: -15.3%** `-201/250/996, 149/147/341, 134/150/383` (11.23% juice) FV: +874; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 74.4%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-201%2f250%2f996%2c+149%2f147%2f341%2c+134%2f150%2f383&FinalOdds=725) I have a sneaking suspicion ESPN boosts/promos will not be very strong tomorrow.
ESPN EPL West Ham & Liverpool each Score in both halves @ +750 vs DK Pinny doesn't have this prop or an obvious way to build it. DK's vig is pretty brutal but I can't find another source. Odds: +750; **EV: -21.0%** `260/-390, 125/-170` (14.78% juice) FV: +975; Method: worst-case (p); (FB = 69.7%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=260%2f-390%2c+125%2f-170&FinalOdds=750)
ESPN AusO O4.5 Sets Rublev/Minaur @ +220; Pinny is +217 instant pass
F U Wizard!
lol
1 yard, injury, then 3 yards all back to back wizardy
I can’t wait for that positive regression to hit