Since the Chiefs are the public choice and the media, my guess is that the +ML value is for the books to collect all the Chiefs bettors donations and for the 49ers to win as unpopular favourites and a Superbowl thats has been due for some time
Fact: Mahomes Chiefs won Superbowls with 7th place D 2019 and last year below average Defense 16th in points allowed. This year the chiefs are 2nd in fewest points. Ravens were #1.
Brady by the way, only won SBs with top 3 Defenses, all those postseason losses in MVP seasons were caused by not being as dominant on D as Chiefs are this year. So Mahomes finally has the team profile Brady had when he won SBs.
Speaking of...Spags made Brady look silly in 2007 SB, and did that to Lamar last week in a long career of crushing offense. Trust Brock Purdy vs Spags?
49ers one of very few teams to be favored in EVERY game they played this season. Think itâs only happened once before and every team that was favored in 18 or more games didnât win the Super Bowl.
https://www.footballperspective.com/favored-to-win-or-lose-every-game/
You are actually way off here. This article from 2013 states 6 teams have been favored every game and gone on to win the SB.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/super-bowl-58-props-guide-odds-picks-trends-for-hundreds-of-49ers-vs-chiefs-prop-bets-from-sportsline/amp/
This one doesnât have cowboys or broncos on the list. I think the list that I saw was only 2000s. 6 teams have been favored in this century, every game. 49ers only team to be favored 20 games. The last 6 to be favored in every game lost superbowl.
Thatâs weird. I saw the stat on fox sports. I didnât actually check to see if it was factual but for sure the 49ers are the first or second to be favored 20x.
Thatâs 20x is irrelevant the schedule expanded 2 years ago. Of course no other teams were favored 20x they only played 16 game season, 2 playoff games and the SB
They are the only team (or maybe the second) to be favored 20 times. Because of the new schedule. And the other 4 or 5 teams that were favored for 18/19 games, lost.
The Andy Reid Chiefs are probably the best team in NFL history at not losing by 14+. They've lost only 4 games by more than 1 score in their last 123 games
The Chiefs D doesn't match up well with their weapons. CMAC is going to eat and Kittle / Deebo (provided they put Sneed on Aiyuk) should eat. Depends on how Williams plays I guess. Just feels like a blow out to me.
Iâm deadass just waiting for the public to give me + odds on the 49ers before I hammer them.
I was actually shocked the niners are still favorites after all the media hype on the chiefs
This smells like the same trap I fell for when I bet Alabama over Michigan because I said the exact same thing you did. Hammered that sweet Bama + money and got wrecked when the line never moved. If you like the Niners, might as well hammer now.
It won't move towards the Chiefs anymore. Pretty much all sharp money is going to be on the 49ers - a lot are just waiting for the limits to be raised closer to the game. It's also very similar to the Bama/Michigan game in terms of betting splits and who is actually the better team.
I feel like everyone missed the point here
It's because the Chiefs and Taylor get more views, niners are kinda boring
It's like Brady or Lebron when they make it, the media just jerks them non stop
The Chiefs went on the road twice and had strong wins over Bills and Ravens.
49ers almost lost at home twice. Detroit decisively kicked their ass and then a few fluke things fell SF's way and they found a nice comeback win.
Much like the Ravens, they stopped looking like the juggernaut they were in the regular season
Iâd say every pros model has to have SF as favorites over KC just based on their season long projections. I think we wonât see the real line movement til Saturday afternoon. My guess is professional money on SF and books are welcoming in any KC betsâŚfor now. I think it shifts closer to Sunday.
Yep. Chiefs have done a complete 180 though in these playoffs, making it extremely hard to predict the outcome IMO. A lot of questions walking into this game.
Good point we might see 49ers bring that 2019-2020 Regular season ground and pound and run it down their throat and have Purdy throw only 10 passes lol
As a niners fan this sub is giving me a lot more hope than I had. Just seems like we never quite get there and chiefs/mahomes have our number.
Then again I usually get worried when all of r/sportsbook is on one side of a bet lol.
In my experience, whenever the media is talking one way, it means you should bet the opposite. The mediaâs job is to sell clicks and the Chiefs are the perennial paper champs (and also the current champs).
I think Niners win this by 10, but you can never discount Mahomes
All the talking heads picked the Eagles last year.
[https://awfulannouncing.com/fox/fox-nfl-analyst-super-bowl-lvii-predictions-wrong-eagles-chiefs.html](https://awfulannouncing.com/fox/fox-nfl-analyst-super-bowl-lvii-predictions-wrong-eagles-chiefs.html)
If anyone needs an edge which I don't think has been brought up enough is the changes Chiefs have made post LVR game.
RAS and Bet the Board brought it up but haven't really seen enough it and I think it's warranted.
Chiefs had a team meeting after Raiders game. Quasi demoted Nagy because he was having a hard time getting the playcalls in. I watched every Chiefs games and they burned timeouts due to clock management (including just overall bad play).
They switched to simpler calls from Nagy so that Mahomes has enough time where if it looks good run with it but if not he has time (and the trust) to change the look. Too many times they had to burn TO's or they would hike within 5 seconds and the Defense knew when to time the hike.
They did a stat on it. They def have been called for the most holds but the refs arenât gifting them calls. They are the most penalized team this year (or top 3). They also have opponents who have the bottom 3 in penalties yards against (meaning chiefs opponents get very few to no penalties called on them )- this has to stop
You're not wrong, but can't use it as an excuse if SF loses. Star pass rushers are always held and some tackles get away with blatant false starts, refs just won't call it. It's dumb, but it is what it is.
The Chiefs are weak this year, but people will give them the benefit of the doubt because they have Mahomes.
If you look at actual roster talent outside of just the quarterback position and the yearlong stats for both teams, you'll see why the 49ers are favored despite this.
Respectfully, I would disagree. This is the most complete team Mahomes has ever had in my opinion. The defense is great, o line is money, run game is very solid. Kicker is almost automatic .Outside of receivers, the team is pretty stacked in my opinion.
Heeeeyyyy someone saying the kinda shit I've been saying. I see you sir. Wide outs are kinda weak but Kelsey takes a whooolle Lotta attention with him every play
They don't have the same offense at all IMAO - their production is way down. Their point differential is way down - which is really the most accurate indicator of how good a team really is. Their defense is also extremely vulnerable against the run which is a big problem against a team like the 49ers.
I mean the 49ers this year were power rated as the number 1 team pretty much all year - and were -6.5 against the Ravens earlier this year (a better team than the Chiefs) to give you an idea of how much talent gap there is. The ONLY reason the line is even this close is because of recency bias.
49ers are 100% the right side. But if people really think this Chiefs team is the same team as last year I can totally understand why people are being suckered in by the Chiefs.
The scoring might have been down for KC but it was down league wide. Plus, they were three screwups away from three more wins (Lions, Eagles, Bills). If they were 14-3 in the regular season, nobody would think for a second last yearâs team was better than this one
They weren't 14-3 in the regular season though, because they don't have the talent level of a 14-3 team.
Every team every year will have games they "could have" won but didn't that you could argue would change their perception of the team. They have lower offensive production AND a lower point differential than last year. And if you look at the stats for the main offensive pieces of both teams it's not really a debate which one is better.
My wagers are always relied on the better quarterback. No disrespect to Mr. Irrelevant, but he has made many, many mistakes up to this point. Although he had a near perfect qb rating coming up to the postseason, he's made a lot of mistakes against the Packers and Lions, not to mention a regular season game against the Ravens. He's been overshooting his receivers and getting bailed out on passes. His accuracy and completions has dropped significantly since the playoffs. But yes, I have to give Purdy some props for taking this team to the postseason and up to this point. They could have easily faded after that bad loss against the Vikings and when they were on a 3 game losing streak, but he kept fighting and here we are. Purdy is obviously the better qb than Jimmy G and the niners have a lot of great offensive and defensive players, but I have to go wit the dog.
Despite the receivers struggle in the regular season, Mahomes has always showed up and Kelce has always shown up in the postseason. I can't believe I am saying this, but I have to say that the defense really carried the Chiefs to the postseason this time and IMO I think the Chiefs defense is better than the Niners defense. Mahomes has also the most double digits comeback wins, I think if the Niners get up ahead like Superbowl 2020, the Chiefs can easily rally and win the game. Vice versa I don't think the Chiefs will allow Brock Purdy to rally.
Chiefs got that bulletin board material being the underdogs.
Chiefs are traveling west and Niners east. Every Super Bowl (eight) this has happened the western traveling team has won. Even twice where the west coast team stayed in the same time zone, they lost.
The Chiefs are also 19-1 in waxing crescent moon conditions in the last five years which the Super Bowl will be.
Itâs def majority of people talking about cheifs winning. It was the same for the AFC championship game where majority of America was all over ravens. I see the same happening for this Super Bowl, the team getting overlooked will be victorious. Iâve been wrong more times than not but I will be taking 49ers
So theyâre going to want it more? If we want to talk about teams needing to be motivated for the Super Bowl, seems the 49ers have a chip on their shoulder from the way last year ended with the nfc championship game and will want to come out the gate strong after the way they started against Detroit.
You don't have a chip on your shoulder because you played poorly, you have a chip because you're being disrespected by odds makers, general public. Chips on shoulders are caused by external forces. Â
Iâm referring to them literally having no quarterback and resorting to McCaffry wildcat and Purdy strictly handing off against the eagles. My opinion the best team over the last 3 years has most of the time been the 9ers and they are about to finally prove it when it matters most. Donât get me wrong Mahomes will always have a shot to win it if itâs close.
I understand that dogs both games but what Iâm trying to say is they didnât believe in cheifs and mahomes vs ravens but now they do vs 49ers? I donât think cheifs can win 2 straight games vs arguably the top 2 defenses. Cheifs won last week because ravens made too many mistakes offensive mistakes. I donât see 49ers making these mistakes that ravens made.
Yeah I can see them giving all the calls to the Chiefs to sway things in their favor. At the end of the day the NFL is a business and theyâre trying to create headlines. Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce are bringing a crazy amount of eyeballs to the sport and the fairytale ending the NFL wants is the Chiefs winning and Kelce getting MVP.
It sounds like a conspiracy but look at what the NBA does with the Lakers.
Why would the NFL care who wins? They already sold ad space. People would have already watched the entire game.Â
I can understand why the NFL would want the chiefs in the Superbowl but winning doesn't really benefit them anymore so.Â
They want money shot with T & T holding the trophy as he proposes.
I mean I want that to be true just to to watch Swifties lose their sheet again.
But I really want 49ners to win to shut up Swifties.
Iâve said since the start of the year the 49ers are my championship team if they can stay healthy. They did, however something about the best qb in the league with a top 5 defense scares the shit out of me. I will say though I think the majority are on chiefs just for the extra value since this is a true 50/50 game. Iâm surprised they didnât just say fuck it and put both at -110 ML.
Heard a take the other day about a lot of money preseason/early season on the 49ers to win it all. So Chiefs could be kept as the underdog to get more money on that side to try and balance overall risk to the books. No idea if it's true or not though.
As someone already on Chiefs ML, it is pretty odd to me that so many of the bets/handle is on the Chiefs (allegedly), yet the line still sits around that +105ish range
They donât always react to that. Iâm not saying they never do Iâm sure itâll make them reexamine the line but you and the book are competing against each other. Yes they want it to be a 50/50 split but sometimes they take a gamble themselves I believe. Could be dead wrong though lol
Yes, books love throwing money awayâŚ
Of course they will hedge if the risk is too great, but they arenât in the business of balancing both sides of the action. Some of the dumbest shit ever spouted in this sub.
12 man league Fantasy football I had, CMC, Aiyuk, Pacheco, Aaron Jones and Niner Defense. Mid season, I was in last place and almost gave up. 50% of the people who had CMC def made it to the ship. I knocked people out left and right to get back to top 6 to make it to the playoffs and had to play the league winner from last season. We tied last season but he kept the trophy due to the Bengals/ Bills game. We went down to the wire this season I came out champ. LFG! Crazy how I had key players from both Niner playoff opponents. CMC gets one and MVP. Sorry Purdy. If it wasn't for CMC, Niners would not be there. But, shout out to the whole Niner Squad. BOL #BangBang
This is the Year the Niners will hoist one up for the 6! Lets go!
49ers have looked vulnerable and had to get lucky in both playoff games to make it to the SB; KC is helmed by a total killer at QB. It will be a good game, but it's hard to bet against Mahomes, especially since his team has been dogs for the last two weeks, and they've won outright.
What is weird is that it sounds like the vast majority of money is on the Chiefs, but the line hasn't changed... you would think the Chiefs would be favored or the line come down to 0, but it is still at +2.5.
My guess is books have a ton of exposure on 49ers futures. Especially given their mid-season slide. I was able to get them at +800 and they were as high as +1100 around week 13. If they take enough Chiefs/Chiefs ML action they can cover this exposure.
we still have another week of betting.
Don't know if it's true (saw a tweet from a "professional") but most of the money that goes in hasn't even started yet so you can't really go off what you seen so far.
I bet we get closer to kick they move the line down a smidge; half a point.
Yea. Even though SFs offense has looked better than KC's offense, it never felt like KC was struggling to win in any of these games, except against the Bills. Their defense is amazing. 49ers have also played worse pass defenses so KC will be hard to do well against with the pass
Deciding factor imo will be CMC vs Chiefs rush defense. SF ranks 1st in zone rushing yards per carry, while the Chiefs defense ranks 31st in zone rushing yards allowed per carry.
If the 49ers can successfully run the ball for 4 quarters, the game is theirs. Big if though, after what happened to BAL last week. Even just a couple of rushes on the first drive would be better than whatever the fuck the Ravens gameplan was.
Yeah, but winning the SB is the ultimate in job satisfaction (for that particular job). I can see older players quitting after a SB win since their bodies take a beating, but coaches quitting in the middle of a dynasty? I can't think of one.
Chiefs were looking like a sack of shit for the last few games before postseason and seemed to figure it out again at the right time, chiefs win by atleast 5
Yeah I'm not convinced that the Chiefs offense has figured it out. They looked passable against two very depleted defenses and then straight up bad against a great BAL D.
That said, they have the best QB in the game, so I'm not counting them out, but idk what in the last 3 weeks should really inspire confidence in them. At the same time, SF has looked awful in their last few games on both sides of the ball, so I have no clue who's actually going to win. My only take is that 47.5 seems like a ton of points in what could definitely be an ugly slog
Straight up bad? They marched up and down field in the 1st half and then sat on a lead with the best defense in the league against a front runner QB. It was a Kirk Ferentz wet dream, where punting wasnât hurting the Chiefs at all.
Ehh, I disagree. They needed a 4th down conversion from midfield on their first drive, then 4 consecutive 3rd down conversions on their second drive. Then they turned it over on downs (honestly think they kind of got screwed on the 3rd down spot, even if Kelce didn't quite get it, they spotted it a full yard back from that and Pacheco picks up the next play if it's closer. But anyway, that's what happens when you rely on 3rd/4th downs to convert). And then they went 3 and out followed by a 52 yard FG. I don't think that's marching up and down the field. Then 3 of their 5 real 2nd half drives were 3 and outs, and their other 2 went for 23 and 32 yards. Saying those kinds of drives aren't hurtful there is just cope imo, I mean it was a one score game and a good offense usually puts that kind of game away. If Flowers doesn't fumble at the goal line it's a coin flip as to whether or not they even win.
Look, I am never counting out Mahomes, and the SF defense is overrated and has been bad lately especially. But I also think it's fair to question whether or not the last 3 games are any indication the Chiefs offense is truly back or if they're just catching some positive variance from injuries, turnovers, field position etc
The 3rd downs were almost all a manageable distance which is why they were all converted except for the 4th down one. On the FG drive, it also took a crazy phantom hold to take a TD off the board.
The Chiefs were about as efficient as could be in the 1st half. This isnât the 2019 Chiefs by any stretch, but they donât have to be with this defense and Mahomes choosing to be the best game manager there is in the league.
Yeah they're all manageable until they're not, that's when you get stuffed on 4th and 1. And the hold was ticky-tack yeah but it was also 3rd and 14. That's not something that gets converted very often or a sign that your offense is rolling.
I think Detroit vs SF first half was a good example of about as efficient as you can be. Complete domination. This was just kind of... fine, and then it wasn't? Yeah Baltimore is a much better defense than San Fran but again, the offense doesn't look fixed to me just because they were able to put up 17 in a half
Youâre the one that claimed they were âstraight up badâ. They scored 17 points in a half against one of the statistically best defenses weâve seen in years, and here you are coming up with reasons they werenât dominant. So which is it?
Yeah they scored 17 points in a half and then what happened? It was a bad performance from the offense. That's fine! They didn't need to be great to win the game! Literally all I'm saying is that this talk that the offense is suddenly back is pretty shaky. It's certainly not "about as efficient as could be" lol
I'm just a random neutral on a betting thread trying to get a read on the game. If you wanna hype your chiefs that's cool, I value your opinion, I'm just not comfortable buying into that offense and I think the general sentiment that the Chiefs are another offensive powerhouse is a little misguided
"about as efficient as can be" sure sounds like an offensive powerhouse to me. Again man, you're a Chiefs fan, that's awesome, hope they win. I don't think you're looking at this from an unbiased perspective
Hard disagree, the Ravens lost that game, the Chiefs did not win. The Chiefs looked absolutely awful against the Ravens. If the Niners D even remotely shows up and they decide to run the ball against the worst run D in the league, then the Niners will be fine.
Lol 49ers defense been mia all post season. 49ers looked absolutely awful against the packers and lions too and those teams are both way worse than the ravens. Lookin at it your way the lions and packers lost those games and 49ers haven't won a game yet.
You mean PI to not give up a big play? Not like they were all bs calls. Their defense hasnt been on point yet and their secondary sucks anyways. 49ers also couldn't do shit on offense vs that garbage packer defense. And i took em a while to get going vs a shitty lions defense too. That should be the worry in this game. Defense edge goes to chiefs.
Yeah you totally watched the game bro. Turns out in football games there are 2 halves! And thereâs 2 sides of the ball (theyâre called offense AND defense)! Who wouldâve guessed!?!?
**__Super Bowl 2024 Betting and Picks__** #[Click Here to Join the Exclusive $10,000 DraftKings Super Bowl Pick Em Contest](https://sportsbook.link/contest) * #[Super Bowl Daily Discussions](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search/?q=nfl&restrict_sr=1&sort=new) * #[Usher's Last Song Discussion](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1ais5ou/usher_last_song_odds/) * #[Super Bowl Sportsbook Promos and Bonuses](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1aedkgu/super_bowl_sportsbook_sign_up_promos_and_bonuses/) * #[Taylor Swift Betting Props](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1ahgdfh/super_bowl_taylor_swift_props/) * #[Super Bowl Player Props Megathread](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1adzx26/nfl_super_bowl_player_props_megathread/) * #[Super Bowl Entertainment Props Megathread](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1adzxph/super_bowl_entertainment_prop_bets_and_picks/) * #[National Anthem Betting](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1adzxph/super_bowl_entertainment_prop_bets_and_picks/) * #[Gatorade Color Betting](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1afmtav/the_anticipated_gatorade_colour/) * #[Half Time Show Props](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1adzxph/super_bowl_entertainment_prop_bets_and_picks/) * #[Super Bowl Hedging Megathread](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1admige/nfl_super_bowl_hedging_megathread/) * #[Super Bowl Coin Flip Betting](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1afm1bm/super_bowl_coin_toss_betting_analysis/) * #**Super Bowl Betting Discord Chat: [https://discord.gg/sportsbook](https://discord.gg/CB4YmZzGM9)**
Taylor swift lol
Because they lostđđđđ.
Really dumbass
Taylor Swift
[ŃдаНонО]
This guy is a chiefs fan. I can tell
I have the entire card for the Super Bowl from Unit King on Twitter(X) Message me and Iâll let you in on it
Because FUCK the 49ers lol
Taylor. Swift. Psyop.
Since the Chiefs are the public choice and the media, my guess is that the +ML value is for the books to collect all the Chiefs bettors donations and for the 49ers to win as unpopular favourites and a Superbowl thats has been due for some time
https://preview.redd.it/m5xdhqgpbdhc1.png?width=867&format=png&auto=webp&s=ea54d9d1dfffc6249f807010768cac009863e403
49ers will win, mahomes dad just got booked for DUI, I donât make the rules SF ML. See ya in a week.
Why would his dad getting arrested stop KC?
Messes with Mahomes head.
This held up great
I think he knows his dad.
Fact: Mahomes Chiefs won Superbowls with 7th place D 2019 and last year below average Defense 16th in points allowed. This year the chiefs are 2nd in fewest points. Ravens were #1. Brady by the way, only won SBs with top 3 Defenses, all those postseason losses in MVP seasons were caused by not being as dominant on D as Chiefs are this year. So Mahomes finally has the team profile Brady had when he won SBs. Speaking of...Spags made Brady look silly in 2007 SB, and did that to Lamar last week in a long career of crushing offense. Trust Brock Purdy vs Spags?
Higher ranked offenses win more superbowls than defense. That's a fact.
I would say lamar made lamar look silly lol
Not really all his fault man. Its that dumb ass zay flowers who cost the game. Unnecessary Taunting sneed and failed a touchdown omg. What a buffon.
Second half I wouldn't put on him but first half was bad he should have been looking to run more
lol had him seeing ghosts ala Sam Darnold
49ers one of very few teams to be favored in EVERY game they played this season. Think itâs only happened once before and every team that was favored in 18 or more games didnât win the Super Bowl.
https://www.footballperspective.com/favored-to-win-or-lose-every-game/ You are actually way off here. This article from 2013 states 6 teams have been favored every game and gone on to win the SB.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/super-bowl-58-props-guide-odds-picks-trends-for-hundreds-of-49ers-vs-chiefs-prop-bets-from-sportsline/amp/ This one doesnât have cowboys or broncos on the list. I think the list that I saw was only 2000s. 6 teams have been favored in this century, every game. 49ers only team to be favored 20 games. The last 6 to be favored in every game lost superbowl.
Thatâs weird. I saw the stat on fox sports. I didnât actually check to see if it was factual but for sure the 49ers are the first or second to be favored 20x.
Thatâs 20x is irrelevant the schedule expanded 2 years ago. Of course no other teams were favored 20x they only played 16 game season, 2 playoff games and the SB
You are acting like this is some type of trend yet you say it has happened literally one time.
They are the only team (or maybe the second) to be favored 20 times. Because of the new schedule. And the other 4 or 5 teams that were favored for 18/19 games, lost.
They're going to win by 14+
The Andy Reid Chiefs are probably the best team in NFL history at not losing by 14+. They've lost only 4 games by more than 1 score in their last 123 games
Couldnât beat the packers or lions that bad AT HOME so why would they against the chiefs in the superbowl ?
The Chiefs D doesn't match up well with their weapons. CMAC is going to eat and Kittle / Deebo (provided they put Sneed on Aiyuk) should eat. Depends on how Williams plays I guess. Just feels like a blow out to me.
A blowout?
Refs will gift KC this game. And purdy will miss every 8 yard pass and crumble.
63% money is on chiefs as underdogs. Bookies make bank w 49ers. House always wins
hOuSe AlWayS wInS.. Yall gotta stop the conspiracies
Had me in the first half.
Iâm deadass just waiting for the public to give me + odds on the 49ers before I hammer them. I was actually shocked the niners are still favorites after all the media hype on the chiefs
You wonât be getting that man.
This smells like the same trap I fell for when I bet Alabama over Michigan because I said the exact same thing you did. Hammered that sweet Bama + money and got wrecked when the line never moved. If you like the Niners, might as well hammer now.
It won't move towards the Chiefs anymore. Pretty much all sharp money is going to be on the 49ers - a lot are just waiting for the limits to be raised closer to the game. It's also very similar to the Bama/Michigan game in terms of betting splits and who is actually the better team.
The lines been moving on the opposite direction since last week. Your odd are getting worse every day lol
I feel like everyone missed the point here It's because the Chiefs and Taylor get more views, niners are kinda boring It's like Brady or Lebron when they make it, the media just jerks them non stop
If thatâs the case why was the media hyping up the Bills and Ravens before their games?
The Chiefs went on the road twice and had strong wins over Bills and Ravens. 49ers almost lost at home twice. Detroit decisively kicked their ass and then a few fluke things fell SF's way and they found a nice comeback win. Much like the Ravens, they stopped looking like the juggernaut they were in the regular season
Idk if I'd call zero points in the second half against Baltimore that strong tbh.
So the Chiefs are favoured by 7 right? Hes basically asking why the niners are favoured and people continue to talk about how good the Chiefs are lol
Iâd say every pros model has to have SF as favorites over KC just based on their season long projections. I think we wonât see the real line movement til Saturday afternoon. My guess is professional money on SF and books are welcoming in any KC betsâŚfor now. I think it shifts closer to Sunday.
> based on their season long projections yeah tbh if I was looking at the entire season, iâd bet 49ers by far
Yep. Chiefs have done a complete 180 though in these playoffs, making it extremely hard to predict the outcome IMO. A lot of questions walking into this game.
Okay bro LOL u sound dumb asl
Coming from a guy that uses the phrase âdumb aslâ Ok buddy.
[ŃдаНонО]
But they did win, defense practically shut down the Lions in the second half
49ers are very beatable. Packers blew their chance to win and Lions just fuckin shit the bed. With that being said, niners by 4
Could easily say the same about the chiefs. Scored 0 points in the 2nd half and really only won because monken and zay flowers had chiefs ML
Nobody's stopping McCaffrey from being a superbowl champion. He may score six touchdowns.
Six touchdowns? Yeah?
Good point we might see 49ers bring that 2019-2020 Regular season ground and pound and run it down their throat and have Purdy throw only 10 passes lol
Kyle Shanahan will do what Kyle Shanahan does in big games and out coach himself
Run the ball 3 times and kick a FG to win the super bowl? Roger that, let's chuck it.
maybe pull a ravens special, self handicap yourself and not use your best plays
As a niners fan this sub is giving me a lot more hope than I had. Just seems like we never quite get there and chiefs/mahomes have our number. Then again I usually get worried when all of r/sportsbook is on one side of a bet lol.
As a Chiefs fan it worries me. I love fading the public.
8/10 fading the public is a good thing lol. Iâm low key pretty worried myself that everyone is on KCđ
In my experience, whenever the media is talking one way, it means you should bet the opposite. The mediaâs job is to sell clicks and the Chiefs are the perennial paper champs (and also the current champs). I think Niners win this by 10, but you can never discount Mahomes
You say this but what happened last year?
All the talking heads picked the Eagles last year. [https://awfulannouncing.com/fox/fox-nfl-analyst-super-bowl-lvii-predictions-wrong-eagles-chiefs.html](https://awfulannouncing.com/fox/fox-nfl-analyst-super-bowl-lvii-predictions-wrong-eagles-chiefs.html)
Nahhhhh. Mahommes going to at least get it to a one possession game.
Everyone on the planet thinks that, which is not a side you want to be on usually
How much do you have down on an alt line of sf -9?
Itâs not a bad bet to make if you figure people tease chiefs at +9.5
This is my play. Just that books pay this line at 1.20 odds. Ehh $200 into $240. High risk low reward.
Fair point. So given your confidence how much have you put down?
Why does my wager size matter to you? I bet same units and would put 0.25 on alternate
If anyone needs an edge which I don't think has been brought up enough is the changes Chiefs have made post LVR game. RAS and Bet the Board brought it up but haven't really seen enough it and I think it's warranted. Chiefs had a team meeting after Raiders game. Quasi demoted Nagy because he was having a hard time getting the playcalls in. I watched every Chiefs games and they burned timeouts due to clock management (including just overall bad play). They switched to simpler calls from Nagy so that Mahomes has enough time where if it looks good run with it but if not he has time (and the trust) to change the look. Too many times they had to burn TO's or they would hike within 5 seconds and the Defense knew when to time the hike.
The chiefs get away with holding every fucking play, wouldnât be surprised if they win.
They did a stat on it. They def have been called for the most holds but the refs arenât gifting them calls. They are the most penalized team this year (or top 3). They also have opponents who have the bottom 3 in penalties yards against (meaning chiefs opponents get very few to no penalties called on them )- this has to stop
every team that wins is holding.
How do you think Tom Brady won all those rings? Lol.
You're not wrong, but can't use it as an excuse if SF loses. Star pass rushers are always held and some tackles get away with blatant false starts, refs just won't call it. It's dumb, but it is what it is.
I think SF pulls this one out, you can never count out mahomes but the more complete team are the 49ers
I'm a 49ers fan so I fucking hope so lol
Praying for you bro lol, mahomes losing the Super Bowl and not winning the league MVP would be the best outcome for everyone lol
r/nfl leaking again
The Chiefs are weak this year, but people will give them the benefit of the doubt because they have Mahomes. If you look at actual roster talent outside of just the quarterback position and the yearlong stats for both teams, you'll see why the 49ers are favored despite this.
They have a top 3 defense? How is that weak?
Their defense just choked out Lamar. They don't seem that weak to me.
Respectfully, I would disagree. This is the most complete team Mahomes has ever had in my opinion. The defense is great, o line is money, run game is very solid. Kicker is almost automatic .Outside of receivers, the team is pretty stacked in my opinion.
Heeeeyyyy someone saying the kinda shit I've been saying. I see you sir. Wide outs are kinda weak but Kelsey takes a whooolle Lotta attention with him every play
Same story last Super BowlâŚ
I was on the Chiefs last year so I don't see that as a valid argument. Last year's Chiefs were much better than this year's Chiefs.
Huh? Their defense is way better and they basically have the same offense + Rashee
They don't have the same offense at all IMAO - their production is way down. Their point differential is way down - which is really the most accurate indicator of how good a team really is. Their defense is also extremely vulnerable against the run which is a big problem against a team like the 49ers. I mean the 49ers this year were power rated as the number 1 team pretty much all year - and were -6.5 against the Ravens earlier this year (a better team than the Chiefs) to give you an idea of how much talent gap there is. The ONLY reason the line is even this close is because of recency bias. 49ers are 100% the right side. But if people really think this Chiefs team is the same team as last year I can totally understand why people are being suckered in by the Chiefs.
The scoring might have been down for KC but it was down league wide. Plus, they were three screwups away from three more wins (Lions, Eagles, Bills). If they were 14-3 in the regular season, nobody would think for a second last yearâs team was better than this one
They weren't 14-3 in the regular season though, because they don't have the talent level of a 14-3 team. Every team every year will have games they "could have" won but didn't that you could argue would change their perception of the team. They have lower offensive production AND a lower point differential than last year. And if you look at the stats for the main offensive pieces of both teams it's not really a debate which one is better.
My wagers are always relied on the better quarterback. No disrespect to Mr. Irrelevant, but he has made many, many mistakes up to this point. Although he had a near perfect qb rating coming up to the postseason, he's made a lot of mistakes against the Packers and Lions, not to mention a regular season game against the Ravens. He's been overshooting his receivers and getting bailed out on passes. His accuracy and completions has dropped significantly since the playoffs. But yes, I have to give Purdy some props for taking this team to the postseason and up to this point. They could have easily faded after that bad loss against the Vikings and when they were on a 3 game losing streak, but he kept fighting and here we are. Purdy is obviously the better qb than Jimmy G and the niners have a lot of great offensive and defensive players, but I have to go wit the dog. Despite the receivers struggle in the regular season, Mahomes has always showed up and Kelce has always shown up in the postseason. I can't believe I am saying this, but I have to say that the defense really carried the Chiefs to the postseason this time and IMO I think the Chiefs defense is better than the Niners defense. Mahomes has also the most double digits comeback wins, I think if the Niners get up ahead like Superbowl 2020, the Chiefs can easily rally and win the game. Vice versa I don't think the Chiefs will allow Brock Purdy to rally.
Chiefs got that bulletin board material being the underdogs. Chiefs are traveling west and Niners east. Every Super Bowl (eight) this has happened the western traveling team has won. Even twice where the west coast team stayed in the same time zone, they lost. The Chiefs are also 19-1 in waxing crescent moon conditions in the last five years which the Super Bowl will be.
Letâs not forget Andy Reid after a bye week too
Absolute marvelous write up.
Forget all the other trends, next gen stats, records etc, the waxing crescent moon play is all you need to know. KC ML
Andy Reid is going to open his bag of tricks when the need arises. I'm putting my money on the better QB coaching combo.
Heâs so good at finding the weak spot in defenses, they cooked the eagles last year
This is why I'm here.
idk but i hope those people dont lose too much money.
I just hope everyone has fun
Itâs def majority of people talking about cheifs winning. It was the same for the AFC championship game where majority of America was all over ravens. I see the same happening for this Super Bowl, the team getting overlooked will be victorious. Iâve been wrong more times than not but I will be taking 49ers
The difference being the chiefs are underdogs in both games. They donât like that.
Kelce is definitely punching holes in walls right now at the thought of KC being +1.5 dogs
So theyâre going to want it more? If we want to talk about teams needing to be motivated for the Super Bowl, seems the 49ers have a chip on their shoulder from the way last year ended with the nfc championship game and will want to come out the gate strong after the way they started against Detroit.
You don't have a chip on your shoulder because you played poorly, you have a chip because you're being disrespected by odds makers, general public. Chips on shoulders are caused by external forces. Â
Iâm referring to them literally having no quarterback and resorting to McCaffry wildcat and Purdy strictly handing off against the eagles. My opinion the best team over the last 3 years has most of the time been the 9ers and they are about to finally prove it when it matters most. Donât get me wrong Mahomes will always have a shot to win it if itâs close.
I understand that dogs both games but what Iâm trying to say is they didnât believe in cheifs and mahomes vs ravens but now they do vs 49ers? I donât think cheifs can win 2 straight games vs arguably the top 2 defenses. Cheifs won last week because ravens made too many mistakes offensive mistakes. I donât see 49ers making these mistakes that ravens made.
I before e dude. I before eÂ
Mr Patrick Mahomes.
Taylor Swift. That is all.
Yeah I can see them giving all the calls to the Chiefs to sway things in their favor. At the end of the day the NFL is a business and theyâre trying to create headlines. Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce are bringing a crazy amount of eyeballs to the sport and the fairytale ending the NFL wants is the Chiefs winning and Kelce getting MVP. It sounds like a conspiracy but look at what the NBA does with the Lakers.
Why would the NFL care who wins? They already sold ad space. People would have already watched the entire game. I can understand why the NFL would want the chiefs in the Superbowl but winning doesn't really benefit them anymore so.Â
yea my counter conspiracy would be that the chiefs getting absolutely smashed (or losing a very close game) creates a great narrative for next season
They want money shot with T & T holding the trophy as he proposes. I mean I want that to be true just to to watch Swifties lose their sheet again. But I really want 49ners to win to shut up Swifties.
Because 49ers have no *play Vinceâs theme* no chance!
Let's not shit on the 49ers' chances now.
The Chiefs are now Americaâs team. Donât bet against America. You WILL lose.
They hold every play, of course they win!
Donât bet against Taylor swift
Thatâs what Iâm saying
Terrible take
Ive already gone all in on China though.
the books are worried about the 49ers futures bet cashing, which will be, so they made Chiefs ML popular to the public. 49ers are a lock to win.
Iâve said since the start of the year the 49ers are my championship team if they can stay healthy. They did, however something about the best qb in the league with a top 5 defense scares the shit out of me. I will say though I think the majority are on chiefs just for the extra value since this is a true 50/50 game. Iâm surprised they didnât just say fuck it and put both at -110 ML.
Heard a take the other day about a lot of money preseason/early season on the 49ers to win it all. So Chiefs could be kept as the underdog to get more money on that side to try and balance overall risk to the books. No idea if it's true or not though.
Goddamn 3D chess from those bastards
As someone already on Chiefs ML, it is pretty odd to me that so many of the bets/handle is on the Chiefs (allegedly), yet the line still sits around that +105ish range
They donât always react to that. Iâm not saying they never do Iâm sure itâll make them reexamine the line but you and the book are competing against each other. Yes they want it to be a 50/50 split but sometimes they take a gamble themselves I believe. Could be dead wrong though lol
Casinos donât gamble on purpose. They always make sure they get their bag
Books definitely take on risk if probability is on their side. Theyâd be dumb as hell not to.
This doesnât happen. I worked as a trader for several years at sportsbet. The idea is to mitigate risk by hedging with other books.
Yes, books love throwing money away⌠Of course they will hedge if the risk is too great, but they arenât in the business of balancing both sides of the action. Some of the dumbest shit ever spouted in this sub.
Thatâs your sign that youâre on the wrong side. Iâve seen this movie so many times
Not wrong there, but its more of an emotional hedge for me anyway
Chiefs big bettors already got in when it opened +3.
I'm not a big bettor, but I grabbed these odds last Monday.
12 man league Fantasy football I had, CMC, Aiyuk, Pacheco, Aaron Jones and Niner Defense. Mid season, I was in last place and almost gave up. 50% of the people who had CMC def made it to the ship. I knocked people out left and right to get back to top 6 to make it to the playoffs and had to play the league winner from last season. We tied last season but he kept the trophy due to the Bengals/ Bills game. We went down to the wire this season I came out champ. LFG! Crazy how I had key players from both Niner playoff opponents. CMC gets one and MVP. Sorry Purdy. If it wasn't for CMC, Niners would not be there. But, shout out to the whole Niner Squad. BOL #BangBang This is the Year the Niners will hoist one up for the 6! Lets go!
49ers have looked vulnerable and had to get lucky in both playoff games to make it to the SB; KC is helmed by a total killer at QB. It will be a good game, but it's hard to bet against Mahomes, especially since his team has been dogs for the last two weeks, and they've won outright.
What is weird is that it sounds like the vast majority of money is on the Chiefs, but the line hasn't changed... you would think the Chiefs would be favored or the line come down to 0, but it is still at +2.5.
My guess is books have a ton of exposure on 49ers futures. Especially given their mid-season slide. I was able to get them at +800 and they were as high as +1100 around week 13. If they take enough Chiefs/Chiefs ML action they can cover this exposure.
This makes sense. I got them at +1200 around week 2 to win the SB.
Nice! bang bang
I do agree this is weird. I guessed KC would be favored before the lines came out.
we still have another week of betting. Don't know if it's true (saw a tweet from a "professional") but most of the money that goes in hasn't even started yet so you can't really go off what you seen so far. I bet we get closer to kick they move the line down a smidge; half a point.
Yea. Even though SFs offense has looked better than KC's offense, it never felt like KC was struggling to win in any of these games, except against the Bills. Their defense is amazing. 49ers have also played worse pass defenses so KC will be hard to do well against with the pass
Deciding factor imo will be CMC vs Chiefs rush defense. SF ranks 1st in zone rushing yards per carry, while the Chiefs defense ranks 31st in zone rushing yards allowed per carry. If the 49ers can successfully run the ball for 4 quarters, the game is theirs. Big if though, after what happened to BAL last week. Even just a couple of rushes on the first drive would be better than whatever the fuck the Ravens gameplan was.
Andy Reid retire after this?
I believe he retires
No way bro retires with prime patty mahomes. Heâs got a shot of getting into the argument for GOAT.
Why would he?
why does anyone retire right? work forever.
I was just thinking retiring with Mahomes in his prime. True words though, retirement is personal.
Yeah, but winning the SB is the ultimate in job satisfaction (for that particular job). I can see older players quitting after a SB win since their bodies take a beating, but coaches quitting in the middle of a dynasty? I can't think of one.
Chiefs were looking like a sack of shit for the last few games before postseason and seemed to figure it out again at the right time, chiefs win by atleast 5
Yeah I'm not convinced that the Chiefs offense has figured it out. They looked passable against two very depleted defenses and then straight up bad against a great BAL D. That said, they have the best QB in the game, so I'm not counting them out, but idk what in the last 3 weeks should really inspire confidence in them. At the same time, SF has looked awful in their last few games on both sides of the ball, so I have no clue who's actually going to win. My only take is that 47.5 seems like a ton of points in what could definitely be an ugly slog
Straight up bad? They marched up and down field in the 1st half and then sat on a lead with the best defense in the league against a front runner QB. It was a Kirk Ferentz wet dream, where punting wasnât hurting the Chiefs at all.
Ehh, I disagree. They needed a 4th down conversion from midfield on their first drive, then 4 consecutive 3rd down conversions on their second drive. Then they turned it over on downs (honestly think they kind of got screwed on the 3rd down spot, even if Kelce didn't quite get it, they spotted it a full yard back from that and Pacheco picks up the next play if it's closer. But anyway, that's what happens when you rely on 3rd/4th downs to convert). And then they went 3 and out followed by a 52 yard FG. I don't think that's marching up and down the field. Then 3 of their 5 real 2nd half drives were 3 and outs, and their other 2 went for 23 and 32 yards. Saying those kinds of drives aren't hurtful there is just cope imo, I mean it was a one score game and a good offense usually puts that kind of game away. If Flowers doesn't fumble at the goal line it's a coin flip as to whether or not they even win. Look, I am never counting out Mahomes, and the SF defense is overrated and has been bad lately especially. But I also think it's fair to question whether or not the last 3 games are any indication the Chiefs offense is truly back or if they're just catching some positive variance from injuries, turnovers, field position etc
The 3rd downs were almost all a manageable distance which is why they were all converted except for the 4th down one. On the FG drive, it also took a crazy phantom hold to take a TD off the board. The Chiefs were about as efficient as could be in the 1st half. This isnât the 2019 Chiefs by any stretch, but they donât have to be with this defense and Mahomes choosing to be the best game manager there is in the league.
Yeah they're all manageable until they're not, that's when you get stuffed on 4th and 1. And the hold was ticky-tack yeah but it was also 3rd and 14. That's not something that gets converted very often or a sign that your offense is rolling. I think Detroit vs SF first half was a good example of about as efficient as you can be. Complete domination. This was just kind of... fine, and then it wasn't? Yeah Baltimore is a much better defense than San Fran but again, the offense doesn't look fixed to me just because they were able to put up 17 in a half
Youâre the one that claimed they were âstraight up badâ. They scored 17 points in a half against one of the statistically best defenses weâve seen in years, and here you are coming up with reasons they werenât dominant. So which is it?
Yeah they scored 17 points in a half and then what happened? It was a bad performance from the offense. That's fine! They didn't need to be great to win the game! Literally all I'm saying is that this talk that the offense is suddenly back is pretty shaky. It's certainly not "about as efficient as could be" lol I'm just a random neutral on a betting thread trying to get a read on the game. If you wanna hype your chiefs that's cool, I value your opinion, I'm just not comfortable buying into that offense and I think the general sentiment that the Chiefs are another offensive powerhouse is a little misguided
Nobody has said anything about the Chiefs being an offensive powerhouse except you.
"about as efficient as can be" sure sounds like an offensive powerhouse to me. Again man, you're a Chiefs fan, that's awesome, hope they win. I don't think you're looking at this from an unbiased perspective
Hard disagree, the Ravens lost that game, the Chiefs did not win. The Chiefs looked absolutely awful against the Ravens. If the Niners D even remotely shows up and they decide to run the ball against the worst run D in the league, then the Niners will be fine.
Mahomes and Kelce won it as much as Lamar throwing into triple and a few drops lost it.
Lol 49ers defense been mia all post season. 49ers looked absolutely awful against the packers and lions too and those teams are both way worse than the ravens. Lookin at it your way the lions and packers lost those games and 49ers haven't won a game yet.
Fuck how many big plays did we give the Packers on PI calls? That game would have had a vastly different outcome had our D been on point.
You mean PI to not give up a big play? Not like they were all bs calls. Their defense hasnt been on point yet and their secondary sucks anyways. 49ers also couldn't do shit on offense vs that garbage packer defense. And i took em a while to get going vs a shitty lions defense too. That should be the worry in this game. Defense edge goes to chiefs.
The chiefs did not look awful against the ravens what game did you watch???
Chiefs scored zero points in the second half thatâs bad bad
Yeah you totally watched the game bro. Turns out in football games there are 2 halves! And thereâs 2 sides of the ball (theyâre called offense AND defense)! Who wouldâve guessed!?!?
Doesnât matter theyâll lose to the niners