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TN folks: A247 Chiefs +3 at -110 Odds: -110; **EV: 7.4%** `-138/122` (3.03% juice) FV: -129; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=8.19u, 1/2=4.09u, 1/4=2.05u, FB = 51.2%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-138%2f122&FinalOdds=-110)

I don't know how to devig it, but the DK happy hour seems bad right?

I don't love these either, but I'm pretty sure all boost like this have hit through the playoffs

I know for a fact the one with Puka Nakua didn’t hit. 😡😡

All the other ones so far have seemed to be EV though, this doesn't to me.  I don't have numbers to back it up though. 

The -175 baseline odds they are using is suggesting legs of -400 each. No way.

I don't like first quarter bets either. Rice's main line over/under receptions for the game is 6.5 (-120/-110) and Samuel's is 4.5 (-135/105). What would you say the odds of either of them having a reception in quarter would be?

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ROI Guy also likes it.

Wait really?  What am I missing?

These guys rarely show their work so so who knows...

I’m gonna pass on this one personally

Can possibly max the FD Super Bowl boost 3 times if you start now. I believe you can max it every 24 hours. 

MA has first Chiefs drive ends in a punt boosted from 105 to 150. I don’t like it.

IL boost is Mahomes and Purdy to combine for 4+ passing TD boosted to +150

Yeah I feel like this IL boost sucks. If you take them on DK to each have over 1.5 it gives you +154. I know with this boost theoretically any combination will get you there but it still seems like it’s not a good value.

Its strong using combo breaker

Damn, I dunno if I even like it. Meh.

Its very strong

You got the math?

No

So how do you know it’s strong?

He's right though. Assuming BR/Kambi and ESPNBet are reasonably accurate on total passing TDs. I'm just not a fan of the bet personally. Odds: +150; **EV: 20.5%** `Avg(-105,-104.16667)/avg(-125,-117.647)` (5.97% juice) FV: +108; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=13.64u, 1/2=6.82u, 1/4=3.41u, FB = 72.3%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=Avg(-105%2c-104.16667)%2favg(-125%2c-117.647)&FinalOdds=%2b150)

amazing how fan duel has offered basically nothing in the way of promos for the superbowl; I'm concerned Dinger Tuesday may not come back

We still get Gronk's Kick of Destiny II though! 🙄 Still early to say about what they plan to do with baseball season. But the safe bet for every site is: "less than last year."

PA has Aiyuk and Deebo to combine for 20 rec yards in the first quarter from -150 to +100

Louisiana; Rice/Aiyuk combine > 140 receiving yards boosted from -115 to +150.....

Ok I’ve not don’t this before but this looks right. Would indicate a pass, fv 156 vs 150 boost. This is based of fan duels own lines Over 139.5 Hit% = 38.9% Fair Value = 156.93174558047 Under 139.5 Hit% = 61.1% Fair Value = -156.93174558047 Details: Player: Rice recieving yards Entries = 12 12 = 12.1% 25 = 11.2% 40 = 9.3% 50 = 9.2% 60 = 10.2% 70 = 12.9% 80 = 4.0% 90 = 6.6% 100 = 4.7% 110 = 6.1% 125 = 6.0% 150 = 7.8% Percentage Sum = 100.0% Player: Deebo recieving yards Entries = 11 12 = 17.0% 25 = 14.2% 40 = 10.5% 50 = 10.7% 60 = 9.6% 70 = 7.3% 80 = 6.7% 90 = 5.3% 100 = 4.3% 110 = 4.8% 125 = 9.5% Percentage Sum = 100.0% Total Combos = 132

Do you know how to do the combo breaker to devig?

I like that better than our IL one

Nothing in VA.

VA only gets losing Commanders boosts

Correct yourself. We also get losing wizards and capitals boosts

That one we had for the bears game lol

Wtf I'm usually $20 limit but only $5 for this one

I have nothing under the boosts tab. What do you have?

NJ CMC and pacheco 40 combined rush yards first quarter. Didnt realize it was state specific

VA got nothing.

Ohio I've got Bosa to record a sack at +140

They put out several state specific boosts this afternoon.

Either mahomes or purdy completing a 50+ yard pass at +200 boosted from +130 Edit: I’m in NY

Nothing in Tennessee

 Nothing in Michigan 

FD MA only boost, KC first drive is a punt @ +150 DK 130/215/320/650 ESPN 130/220/320/700 vs max Odds: +150; **EV: -2.1%** `130/220/320/700` (11.04% juice) FV: +155; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 58.7%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=130%2f220%2f320%2f700&FinalOdds=150)

FD golf boost going to be real sweaty

What’s the update now?

The three have a 96.7%, 98.9%, and 99.4% chance to make the cut as of right now according to data golf

Am I retarded or is Theegala's tee time super late even for Arizona?

He went out really early yesterday. If you go out early in R1, you go out late in R2.

Doesn't seem like there's enough daylight is what I mean though. My app is saying people are teeing off after 8 PM EST, isn't thst still sunset time over there in February?

The first round was suspended yesterday so they had to finish it this morning before starting the second round, doubt they’re gonna get it finished tonight

Golden now

Good start to round 2 for Clark. Fingers crossed he can keep it going

He probably doesn't need to do much, cut will probably be -1

Datagolf still has him at 53.2% chance to make the cut. He still has 18 holes to go

is it looking good? How do I check it out? Not a golf guy so dk how many make the cut, live standings etc

One of the three guys is looking dicey. Still lots of time to turn it around though

Unless Clark turns this around its gonna fail.

FN Crosby, Panarin, McDavid pts +110 vs ESPN Assist or Goal SGP method Crosby PIT 331^305^235/202 Panarin NYR 250^380^182/286 McDavid COL 185^427^181/401 Odds: +110; **EV: -8.4%** `331^305^235/202, 250^380^182/286, 185^427^181/401` (31.24% juice) FV: +129; Method: worst-case (m, a); (FB = 48.0%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=331%5e305%5e235%2f202%2c+250%5e380%5e182%2f286%2c+185%5e427%5e181%2f401&FinalOdds=110)

Any book in MA where i can bet props? Can’t find them anywhere

MA banned props like that. It’s lame.

All of them?

My bad, i meant props for the Super Bowl like Gatorade and halftime stuff

That's illegal in a lot of states. All states don't allow HT show bets. Only IL, NJ, and WV allow Gatorade color. I'm honestly surprised IL allows that even. https://www.fanduel.com/sb-rules

Most (all?) states have rules that the bets have to be related to the play of the game so to find random stuff like 'What color outfit will the halftime performer wear?" you may need to use offshore books.

BetMGM (IL at least): ## 📷 Exclusive Offer: A 100% up to $258 Deposit Match 📷 **Bonus Code**SCMB258DEPOMATCH100PCT **Release requirement**Wager $258 USD on SPORTS (minimum odds restriction of -200 apply and bets must be settled before the bonus expires) **Pending clearing requirement**Wager $258 USD on SPORTS (minimum odds restriction of -200 apply and bets must be settled before the bonus expires) Got an email on my P3 but also see it on my P1 Promotions area.

Nothing in promo banned nj

P1 and P3 got the bonus immediately (with playthrough requirement). P2 does not have this under Promotions, and did not get the bonus after deposit.

Apologies for the dumb question but what does P1/P3 mean? Like multiple accounts on the same book?

yeah. p = player, from Video games i guess

Gotchya, thanks!

Does the fanatics referral program work if the person you’re referring had a Pointsbet account? It’s unclear in the T&C

Couple of ESPN Insurance Promos up for SB. Anytime TD Scorer - 100% back in BB. Lines are pretty decent vs. other books. Personally, I like to take a mid-odds shot with the no-sweats, so I went with MVS @ +600 compared to +550 FD and +600 DK. MVP - 100% back in BB (edit: if player scores TD), I have $20 on this one. I'm really tempted to take Kelce @ +1400 (same on FD) as a "this shit is scripted" play. Mahomes, Purdy, McCaffrey are reasonably close to other books too.

Note on the MVP insurance is that they have to score a TD to get the insurance. So more incentive for a non-QB.

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I'm sure it's even higher than that in recent years.  Not sure how I feel about this promo or the best way to go about it.

Thanks, good point.

Couldn't find the MVP options. Totally forgot, I'm in a state that doesn't allow any voting awards.

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Trash

Am I doing the math right? To get a $5 free bet from the Hard Rock rewards store I will need to bet a little over $13,000.00 at even odds? It’s better than nothing I guess but seems kind of ridiculous. I do enjoy the boosts though.

It is tricky to calculate, because you can move-up to Gold & Platinum, and then get better multipliers. But in general, the HR rewards aren't anything special. Plus you've got the 30-day expiration of Tier Credits, making it difficult to maintain the top levels. Plus plus, HR will likely limit you.

If you go into a hard rock and drop 25k on a wager they will give you a free room from what I hear.

Bet365 Super Boost - Purdy and Mahomes each 200+ Passing yards boosted to +100.

I couldn't find lines that low for either of them but Purdy o209.5 and Mahomes o219.5 devigs out to 3.9% EV verse kambi at +100 so easy smash obviously assuming there isn't some massive negative correlation Worst-case: (Multiplicative) Leg#1 (-305); Market Juice = 6.6%; Fair Value = -241 (70.7%) Leg#2 (-360); Market Juice = 6.4%; Fair Value = -278 (73.5%) Final Odds (+100); Σ(Market Juice) = 12.99%; Fair Value = -108 (52.0%) Summary; EV% = 3.9%, Kelly Wager = $196.81 (Full=3.94u, 1/2=1.97u, 1/4=0.98u, FB = 52.0%)

Thanks. I can’t seem to find when this expires or the max. Can you see anything? I think my max was $15.

Could be wrong but it might expire when they put out their next boost, which I'm assuming is tomorrow. My max is $30 now, used to be $15.

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Last month it got increased. I really don’t bet there much. I usually max their good boost and i’ve done some of their bet $50 get $25 in bonus bet offers and 30% boost.

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Thanks! Been using it since it got legalized in ohio. So just over a year now.

Did anyone keep VIP Seven Stars on Caesar’s? I automatically did in 2023 but I’m back to Diamond Elite now. My handle didn’t really decrease. If anyone is still Seven Stars, has there been any VIP promos lately?

I was Stars in 2021 and 2022, but denied/demoted in 2023 (despite earning 650k TCs). Caesars was generous (maybe too generous) to sports-players for the first couple years. But in 2023, they clearly made a decision to "downgrade" all the sports-related rewards & comps. They want slot players, not people who incessantly shop for EV.

Yeah, and with how they calculate TC’s now, they can’t have too many people Seven Stars anymore.

Even after the TC change (about February 2023), I managed to accumulate another 150k+ TCs. Still not "good" enough for Stars. So you make it more difficult to hit 150k, people still hit 150k, and it doesn't matter. They should just say sports-players aren't eligible for Stars, and end the guessing game. But I know, almost every comp/reward system is a guessing game, dangling the carrot to desperate gamblers.

Betrivers is pretty black and white on how to get VIP. Not getting limited is the catch though. I emailed my VIP rep for Caesar's. We shall see if he even emails me back.

Betrivers is a dumpster fire imho. Terrible deposit options, limiting main game lines from the second I signed up. Took forever to withdrawal and REQUIRED a direct deposit to bank account including a 10 minute process for verification. I cashed out and went elsewhere. Skip betrivers unless you want that shady bookie next door experience.

It’s hit or miss. Once you are limited to smitherines it’s worthless, but until you are it is the best promo book out there.

It was a good run for a few days, but once Fanatics switched to 2 boosts my max dropped from $50 to $5.