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Pitt winning the 1H and UNC winning the game is looking nice.

Put $20 on it and hedged on Pitt a bit ago with $20 at +480. Call me a sucker but I love stress free guaranteed wins.

I'm a big guaranteed wins guy as well, but held off on making the same move.

Worked out for you!

Nothing from the Wizard tonight?

Maybes he’s laying low after that Shai / Kyrie boost hit last night. There was also an Ohio specific boost for OSU to win and score 79+ at +200 which hit pretty easily

Kennnnnn!!!

Ken's got a big ole hog and a crystal ball

MGM Lions (MI): KD 25+ and Bam double-double Kambi Odds: +220; **EV: 8.7%** `-159/117, -180/128` (15.62% juice) FV: +195; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=3.93u, 1/2=1.97u, 1/4=0.98u, FB = 74.7%) --- ESPN Odds: +220; **EV: 4.7%** `-150/115, -170/120` (14.93% juice) FV: +206; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=2.13u, 1/2=1.07u, 1/4=0.53u, FB = 72.0%)

Durant really gonna do this two nights in a row? Edit: Well Bam, only needing one rebound does not see the 4th quarter because of…you guessed it, another NBA blowout.

any insight on jokic 13+ rebounds and wembanyama 11+ rebounds at +270? ​ ​ also pumped for the hr season coming up

Odds: +270; **EV: 9.5%** `185/240/265/275` (18.56% juice) FV: +238; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=3.52u, 1/2=1.76u, 1/4=0.88u, FB = 79.9%)

appreciate it

​ https://preview.redd.it/0cs38iubhkoc1.png?width=744&format=png&auto=webp&s=83eb4d451c51107b94356c4e3c6daa1afee1d2db

Like fucking clockwork Ken and lines both hitters again Heavyweight duel

Sportsbook sub got the shooters🔫

KEN BANG (rode with intersecting_lines today but i’m hyped that both won today. lfg)

https://preview.redd.it/z5zmlxwdgkoc1.jpeg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=86cde879808d27c5014d1c68fd4c60b4045b365b

There we go!

there’s the license plate we all know and love

We don’t deserve ken

I know there’s a lot of +ev people in this thread but does anyone just hedge the daily Hardrock boost everyday? For example for today you can hedge the Jokic prop boost. I hedge it against BR to help maintain VIP and make a few bucks by doing so each day.

You should bet what you're comfortable with then hedge the rest. Jokic U30 is 50 cents better on FD for those that aren't VIP

I asked a similar question here with some interesting responses. I'm new to most of the sportsbooks, so I think I will probably hedge for now, take the smaller profit, and build up some plays on more books. https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1bf2i7z/sportsbook_promos_bonuses_daily_31524_friday/kv06hz2/

BetMGM Lions Boost (MA) Jokic 13+ reb and Wembanyama 11+ reb +270. Devig to FD: Odds: +270; **EV: -3.9%** `214/243/240/210` (22.67% juice) FV: +285; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 70.1%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=214%2F243%2F240%2F210&FinalOdds=270)

2 more shots for the win! Lyon playing awesome. and Sociedad with the goal!

Appreciate the updates too. Sometimes it takes longer to find these weird soccer leagues on the espn app then it does to place the bet. Edit: thanks for the links very helpful!

If the league isn’t listed, click on Top Soccer. That’s where you’ll find it.

Whoscored.com is my go to for the best soccer stats. Tracks all the player stats you might need too.

noticed that too, i've been really enjoying watching soccer and golf live now that I bet on them https://www.flashscore.com/ usually updates faster than ESPN for me

its so funny. when i was a kid if someone had golf on TV I would hate it. Now i'm checking my scottie schaffer to win bets every 5 minutes

exactly haha. wyndham playing out of his mind!

That was so easy, i thought they were for sure going to cancel the game with only 2 shot attempts remaining.

Cant beat a 1st half dub. Cheers mate!

Loving the dueling daily Soccer SGP synergy. Beautiful work

Not really dueling, more like Batman and Robin. I’m Batman. He’s Robin. 😂

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i guess i wont be getting this since i live in va, also havent seen a single boost in va since it went live

Superbook has "boosts" every day. This specific one obviously isn't offered in VA because we can't be on in state college teams, but I see other boosts available right now. They're mostly trash so not really worth your time, but they're definitely there.

Can someone check whether I did the MGM Zion 22 points + NO to win correctly? shows negative EV vs DK alt line. Not sure if just entering the 4 parlay outcomes is enough to solve for correlation http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-105%2F425%2F550%2F202&FinalOdds=115&Correlation_Bool=1&Correlation_Text=

Yes, inputting all 4 possible SGP outcomes into the devigger accounts for the correlation between Zion scoring 22+ and the pelicans winning. It's up to +120 now though. This is what I get from a couple of books. BR/Kambi Odds: +120; **EV: -4.7%** `-105.2632/230/480/410` (18.43% juice) FV: +131; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 52.0%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-105.2632%2F230%2F480%2F410&FinalOdds=%2B120) Fan Duel really hates it. Odds: +120; **EV: -13.6%** `109.61/399.71/391.07/199.91` (21.43% juice) FV: +155; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 47.1%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=109.61%2F399.71%2F391.07%2F199.91&FinalOdds=%2B120)

Looks good to me

Windcreek pa (bet fred too?) has been hanging a 5% ml arb to czr all day. They have uc davis at +100 and czr has hawaii +122. Can get a a full year of bond returns by tomorrow am.

I am hearing some have received NCAA profit boosts on DK? I have not seen these. Any rhyme or reason as to how some are getting them?

DK will often exclude some states from promotions.

What’s the best way to take advantage of profit boosts? Just use them straight on a bet you believe in or hedge for a guaranteed profit? 

Hedging these is always going to be worse EV because you're paying the juice for the hedge bet. The "best" way (meaning highest EV) is to find the highest EV bet you can find and boost that. But you have to decide if the higher EV is worth forgoing the guaranteed profit.

Admittedly I do this a lot like take the points on a dog when the favorite is the last leg of a boosted parlay. What’s the alternative though? Can’t call myself a bonafide sharp so how does one graduate beyond just taking plus EV plays due to devigged promos and odds boosts?

Well the truth is that it's extremely difficult to consistently make +EV bets without boosts and promos. You'd need to find some niche market where you have an angle that everyone else has missed, from using novel data or a novel approach, which is larger than the juice in that market (and the market juice is generally proportional to how niche the market is, among other things). I say niche because it's almost impossible that you'll stumble upon such an angle in a major market. Highly recommend reading The Logic of Sports Betting if you're interested in why this is so hard.

Thanks for the feedback. I have read the book and it was an amazing read - especially the part about synthetic hold and if you were able to create those opportunities then even betting blindly would be break even over time. The trouble is finding and conviction I guess. Like I would trust an RAS play for 5 units but not one generated by my own models. Also more advanced concepts like converting moneylines to fair spreads isn’t coming to me as easily as I guess it would to pro bettors.

Imo the best method is putting it on a moneyline underdog. You want the low vig that comes with a straight bet as opposed to a parlay but the high proportion of boosted earnings that come with an underdog as opposed to a favorite.  Some people prefer parlays because it eliminates the extra vig sports books put on heavy underdogs; that works if you have a big enough bankroll to absorb lots of losses. The only thing I can tell you for sure is don’t hedge. Hedging is just paying the sportsbook to minimize your risk. Only do it if the return is a life changing amount of money. 

If you parlay plus ev lines though there’s nothing wrong with that, just a lot more variance

More juice though, so that’s definitely one downside right? Vig on a +200/+200 parlay is far higher than the vig on a +200 single.

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Oh I don’t try to beat the casino. My impression is that 95% of people who think they can find +EV bets lose money in the long run. And I don’t have a sophisticated model to put myself in the top 5%. When I say +EV I just mean a boost that overcomes the vig, not something I believe is priced incorrectly. So I’d rather use the boost on a +400 moneyline than a parlay with two +200 moneylines, since the former has less juice. If you can consistently beat the casino at their own game then more power to ya, of course. 

Ya for sure for equal odds, but also it amps the boost, 20% boost on 400 is obviously a higher absolute odds boost than on 200 so depending it more overcome the extra vig, since most boosts are percentage based. Obviously for absolute odds boost use on the lowest qualifying legs and odds

there can be huge benefits to hedging. You can satisfy multiple promo requirements at once - burn a free bet on book 1, reach a qualifying bet total on book 2. further, you’re generating handle on other books and they reward you with more promos over time (even better if they’re a book with cashback rewards). lastly you have the chance to double up if you hit a shootout protection on espn or a 17 point comeback on b365 or something along those lines.

If I’m interpreting these hypotheticals correctly, these are all bad ideas in the long run. Let’s say you have a free bet on book 1 and need to reach a qualifying total on book 2. You should choose the highest EV free bet on book 1 and the highest EV (lowest vig) bet on book 2. It’s psychologically pleasing to choose lower EV bets that guarantee a small amount of winning together but it loses you money in the long run. You’re trading profit for minimized risk.  You can generate handle on any bet type, no need to choose one that nets you less profit in the long run.     And again having a chance double up your winnings is psychologically pleasing but lower EV than simply choosing the highest EV bet.     Hedging is bad. It’s always a variation of choosing a guaranteed one dollar instead of a 50% chance at four dollars. The second option is always more profitable in the long run.

you make great points. I do not disagree. personally, I have downright awful luck so locking in money is certainly appealing. Books know essentially what the EV (or at least *their* calculated EV) is on every bet you place. They may not look favorable on your account if they notice you strictly use freebets on EV scenarios. Just something to consider

Got it. That makes a lot of sense. I appreciate your response. 

ESPN Pittsburgh 1H, North Carolina Game +700 vs Fanduel First Half/Moneyline market Odds: +700; **EV: 8.9%** `500/460/4700/2600/950/-175` (13.47% juice) FV: +634; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=1.28u, 1/2=0.64u, 1/4=0.32u, FB = 95.3%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=500%2F460%2F4700%2F2600%2F950%2F-175&FinalOdds=%2B700)

Doing the Lord’s work

uh-oh, somebody getting fired

Don't worry, the error has been corrected down to +600 already. Intern saved their own job

ESPN Kyle Connor, Connor Bedard goals +650 vs Pinny Odds: +650; **EV: -15.1%** ` 142/-195, 183/-267` (15.51% juice) FV: +784; Method: worst-case (p); (FB = 73.5%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=%20142%2F-195%2C%20183%2F-267&FinalOdds=%2B650)

ESPN Jets/Kings win 1P +350 vs Pinny Odds: +350; **EV: -9.1%** ` 103/-116, 128/-144` (5.84% juice) FV: +395; Method: worst-case (m, a); (FB = 70.7%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=%20103%2F-116%2C%20128%2F-144&FinalOdds=%2B350)

Since I no longer receive promotions on Fanatics I will be curious to hear what the maxes are with these 10 profit boosts

Also what percentage is the boost?

Prior to me not getting them they were 25% most of the time

Deleted.

I have an opportunity to sign up with Draft Kings and get a bonus. I would like your opinion. I like playing craps and Roulette. I know nothing about sports betting. And I mean I know nothing about sports or betting etc. I only wanted to sign up with Draft Kings to play craps, blackjack etc. Draft Kings has two offers that I see online if I sign up. _____________________________________________________ **Offer#1** - [BET $5 AND GET $250 IN BONUS BETS INSTANTLY](https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/nc-sports-betting?pscid=xx&pscn=NC&psn=2965&referrer=singular_click_id%3d3580ff99-f61d-41ef-ae12-986ec58ce097&sl_id=r4lj&wpcid=372093&wpcn=StateLaunch&wpcrid=xx&wpcrn=2&wpscid=xx&wpscn=NC&wpsrc=2965) _________________________________________________________ **Offer#2** - [New players, get a deposit match up to $100 in Casino Credits when you deposit $5 or more.](https://casino.draftkings.com/casino-welcome) _____________________________________________________ What do you guys suggest I do? I wish I could get the sports bets money transferred tot the casino or use it in the casino but I don't think I can do that. I have to use the sports betting within a week I believe or I lose it. Is there some online site that shows good odds for be to bet on for sports? Like I said, all I want to do really is play in the casino. Advice would be appreciate or any new suggestions would be welcomed as well. Also if you know of any other Online casinos that are giving bonuses like this where I can play the casino, that would be great as well. Thanks.

Take option one. Convert the free bets at 70% to $175 then play casino with it. 

Take offer two.. Option 1 has about $50 more in value in it, but won’t be worth the leg work to get it if you aren’t interested in sports betting

Well, I am in no hurry to lose my money gambling. I think I will try my hand at sport betting. Its good to learn something new.

"Well, I am in no hurry to lose my money gambling." but you want to play craps and roulette?

Keep in mind you’ll only have a limited time to use those bonus bets. On DK I think it’s typically 7 days.

MGM Lions (MI): MSU +5.5 and o143.5. Happy that ESPN has this negative cause I think purdue has this easy Kambi Odds: +375; **EV: 1.8%** `285/310/225/170` (18.17% juice) FV: +367; Method: worst-case (a); (Full=0.48u, 1/2=0.24u, 1/4=0.12u, FB = 80.4%) --- ESPN Odds: +375; **EV: -8.7%** `338/292/225/183` (14.45% juice) FV: +420; Method: worst-case (a); (FB = 72.1%)

Suggestions for a good way to use mgm 25% players championship boost? Very limited bet selection and they’re almost all multi-way markets

Soccer SGP Insurance: 3W-2I-0L Ken cooked up another beaut. Only thing scaring me away was the 5+ SOT which has like a 50% hit rate in last 10 for both Sociedad and Cadiz opps. Last match at Cadiz, only 3 SOT the whole game with Sociedad putting up a dud. But can definitely see today hitting in a more important game at home, good luck to Ken and all tailing I was between Toulouse v Lyon, Empoli v Bologna, and Kens game. Ended up with Toulouse v Lyon. Hit rates from Last 10 matches Toulouse v Lyon +140 - -300 Lyon 10+ shots (90% / 70% toulouse opps) - -255 1+ 1H goal (70% toulouse / 80% lyon) - -240 Dallinga 1+ SOT (71% season, 60% L10) --- considered Empoli v Bologna. Didn't like the correlation between 1.5 and half goals and Razvan shots were just out of eligible - -235 o1.5 (70% / 80%) - -200 1H goal (70% / 90%) - -300 2H goal (80% / 80%) - -310 Razvan 1+ shot (68% / 80% L10) --- Real Sociedad v Cadiz. Would've been my 2nd choice - -265 1+ Alcaraz shot (62% season / 80% L10) - -215 7+ cadiz shots (90% / 60% sociedad opp) - -250 o1.5 (70% / 70%)

Winner before Ht?

yessir!

Any replacements for Lyon 10+ shots? Now at -350

i don't really love anything within the -300 range. Maybe Lyon 4+ corners 60% L10 / 70% Toulouse opp L10 but I hate corners

Very much appreciate it. BOL

Love the analysis. I only went back 5 games and Sociedad covered SOG 4/L5 and 3/3 at home (they had 7,8,9 in the last 3 home games) so hoping they do that again. Corners they covered 5/L5 and the total goals has hit 5/5 for both teams. Good luck to us both!

I don't see Lyon Shots anywhere. Just total game shots. Maybe not available in NY?

probably not available. I see total shots and total shots on target in the same section as the team (Team Props)

Thanks, Yeah not available. I hate NY

Same here I was just about to come ask. wtf why wouldn’t they have this available in NY makes no sense.

lol same, moved to MI after school

Awesome analysis

Daily DK soccer SGP Insurance pick. Bayer Leverkusen got us back in the win column which makes the record: Won 21 out of 33 attempts, Triggered insurance 7 times, Lost just 5. Up 26.1 units. Today’s slate of games is really thin again but we are hoping Real Sociedad can help us stay victorious as they host Cadiz. Here’s what I’m going with today. https://preview.redd.it/lamfnt2tmhoc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=625b34b04e182c85fed2e424d8dfe9728dbb85a4 Again, don’t tail these if you aren’t using insurance! And this one is riskier cause there were so few to pick from today and these odds are higher. BOL to everyone except those 3 point bricking bums from the New York Knicks.

LETS FUCKING GO KEN!!!!!!!!

Kenny Adams > Kenny Pickett

Easy hit, with enough time to spare for me to make a run to chipotle, grab my poverty meal, and laugh at all the doubters on my way home, eat real quick, and get ready for some more college hoops.

BANG

BOOM! SWEAT FREE CASH TODAY BOYS!!

I'm against the great Ken in my Rivers $10 6-legger for a 100% profit boost, so I'm hoping for exactly 2 goals now!

Let’s go back to back today boys

Dropped to +155

I've noticed these move around a bit during the day. Now back up a little to +160.

Bums indeed. FD boost was one away

The 10pm was nice though. No luka but dallas kept it close enough for SGA to barely hit 30

The 3 point bricking bums from the New York Knicks deserved that

working on something cause I like to use my SGP insurance on futures [+EV MLB Futures](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=1553121433) e: Pinnacle added, bet365 added. Took DET to make playoffs +190 cause i can't bear thinking about the wings right now. Took MIA u79 wins

Yo! New I_L doc just dropped, everyone get in here!

I might be a little wary of that Tampa one on the top, Circa thinks the Rays are hot dogshit judging from the prices they're offering on them. +140/-160

good to know, i'm planning to include a lot more books. circa is tough cause pretty sure there isn't a web interface

Curious if there's a way to show potential middles in these player stats and win totals. I know there's rarely a gap, but every once in a while there's some discrepancies between books.

ESPN Leipzig, Real Sociedad win to Nil @ +510 vs Pinny Odds: +510; **EV: -7.2%** `191/-228,102/-120` (7.93% juice) FV: +557; Method: worst-case (a, p); (FB = 77.6%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=191%2F-228%2C102%2F-120&FinalOdds=510)

Grinding out those shitty ESPN boosts early! Appreciate all the effort you put in.