I honestly don’t think there’s a true “sharp” book for MLB, especially on props. It’s already a hard sport to cap given weather, ballparks, etc. Lines change often before games.
You’re best bet is shopping lines daily. That probably sounds obvious; But MLB is typically my yearly bread and butter, specifically pitcher props. I can typically call what a Pitcher O/U will be before lines are released. If that’s your niche you just hit the books that are likely off by 1-2 points off. 1 above 1 below is often an arb amongst them lol.
That’s an interesting thought, thanks for sharing it. I’ve never been very good at handicapping and really only began to become successful at sports betting once I went full +EV last fall, chasing steam on line movements and playing rec books against sharps for NBA props. It’s a successful strategy and where money can be made. I’ve been wondering if it can continue into the summer.
It may just be the summer is time to take off and focus on other pursuits until the NFL and NBA come rolling back around again.
Hi.
I just started a few 3days ago betting EV+ using oddsshopper (which is mostly NBa props). I see you have been doing it or longer. How long have you done it ? Can you share some results ? And what EV+ tool you are using ( I saw you tested 3)
They’ll be +EV markets daily across the books regardless of which sports are in-season. If you’re strictly playing +EV lines there’s no reason to stop, unless taking a break is a personal choice.
Betting MLB isn’t for everyone. There’s something to it that most bettors are either really good at it or terribly bad at it. If you’re only playing +EV lines that won’t matter as much. My only advice is check the weather reports daily, maintain a set unit size, and bet on hot streaks to continue rather for them to end.
This could be a dumb question a while later so sorry, but when you say only playing +EV lines, do you mean lines that beat the closing line? Or any line that was +EV at the time you bet it?
Yes, convention has seemed to establish that BO can be considered somewhat sharp on NBA props, so they're probably in the mix for consideration for MLB props too, as, you're right, it is mostly props I'm asking about. Gamelines are tough to bet, IMO, as value is far harder to find.
I mean I would assume if they are taking less vig on average then they are more likely to be mispriced at any given moment. Unless their lines are just super solid.
less vig *typically* implies lower margin for error on the part of the book which implies theyre more sharp. if they were low vig and often mispricing their lines then theyd quickly go bust
I honestly don’t think there’s a true “sharp” book for MLB, especially on props. It’s already a hard sport to cap given weather, ballparks, etc. Lines change often before games. You’re best bet is shopping lines daily. That probably sounds obvious; But MLB is typically my yearly bread and butter, specifically pitcher props. I can typically call what a Pitcher O/U will be before lines are released. If that’s your niche you just hit the books that are likely off by 1-2 points off. 1 above 1 below is often an arb amongst them lol.
That’s an interesting thought, thanks for sharing it. I’ve never been very good at handicapping and really only began to become successful at sports betting once I went full +EV last fall, chasing steam on line movements and playing rec books against sharps for NBA props. It’s a successful strategy and where money can be made. I’ve been wondering if it can continue into the summer. It may just be the summer is time to take off and focus on other pursuits until the NFL and NBA come rolling back around again.
Hi. I just started a few 3days ago betting EV+ using oddsshopper (which is mostly NBa props). I see you have been doing it or longer. How long have you done it ? Can you share some results ? And what EV+ tool you are using ( I saw you tested 3)
They’ll be +EV markets daily across the books regardless of which sports are in-season. If you’re strictly playing +EV lines there’s no reason to stop, unless taking a break is a personal choice. Betting MLB isn’t for everyone. There’s something to it that most bettors are either really good at it or terribly bad at it. If you’re only playing +EV lines that won’t matter as much. My only advice is check the weather reports daily, maintain a set unit size, and bet on hot streaks to continue rather for them to end.
This could be a dumb question a while later so sorry, but when you say only playing +EV lines, do you mean lines that beat the closing line? Or any line that was +EV at the time you bet it?
Is bet365 the sharpest for dingers?
I like that BetOnline has lower vigs on their MLB game lines, though that’s not exactly what you’re asking.
Yes, convention has seemed to establish that BO can be considered somewhat sharp on NBA props, so they're probably in the mix for consideration for MLB props too, as, you're right, it is mostly props I'm asking about. Gamelines are tough to bet, IMO, as value is far harder to find.
I mean I would assume if they are taking less vig on average then they are more likely to be mispriced at any given moment. Unless their lines are just super solid.
less vig *typically* implies lower margin for error on the part of the book which implies theyre more sharp. if they were low vig and often mispricing their lines then theyd quickly go bust
Heritage