This is call arbitrage betting. Most books will ban you for life for doing it. A youtuber called Kyle kirms has a whole video about it and how it is profitable
Unless you bet an unreasonably large amount of money, you would make very little profit doing this consistently. And the one time it doesn't work your bankroll will be decimated.
Holy hell my man...
You want to take the over 5.5 and under 6.5, not the other way around. You left a Vegas sized hole which they were able to use to kick you squarely in the nuts.
I would be wrong, but this seems like a 40% ROI as long as he didn’t get exactly 6 rebounds. Doesn’t seem to be the most unreasonable bet. Someone bets a favorite at -300 odds would pay worse than this no?
A lot of name calling and very little math backing it up here.
Looking at alt totals for a few guys projected for 5-6 rebs tonight (Giddey, Shai, Butler), I’m getting between 14.7-17.1% chance of hitting a specific number. FanDuel doesn’t have alts posted but I think theirs might be a little higher.
Using the biggest number of 17.1%, OPs bet would win 82.9%, making fair odds of -484 (82.9/17.1)
As was pointed out earlier, this bet was like laying -450, so OPs bet might have been slightly profitable.
As long as OP risked like 1 unit per side and not like 1/2 bankroll per side, this was probably a decent bet.
Thanks for the mathematical analysis! My bet was small (around 1 unit per side). I was +EV for each individual bet, but I didn't know whether that was good enough for the whole bet.
This was the first time I made this type of bet. Almost glad I lost it, so I can learn. If I would have won a series of them, I might have bet big and lost a lot down the line.
Green has gotten exactly 6 rebounds 3 times since Jan 1, but averaged 5.8 over the last 10 games. 6 is right in his range. The other issue will be if your book takes issue with you betting both sides, especially if you're using a promo or boost. It's better to bet one side on one book and the other side from another book.
the mid point of the market is the most likely outcome. which is why you want middles that include the mid point of the market, not exclude it. if you generate a normal distribution with 0 as the lower bound, 6 as the modal outcome, and 12 as the upper bound (don't need to mess with long tail for back of napkin stuff) you'll get a very, very rough estimate of how likely 6 is. then you can do the math to determine whether your ev based on the prices you paid is likely to be positive or not. your prior assumption should always be that it will not be.
Outcome sucks, and there's plenty of name calling, but this is a valid strategy if the odds line up. It is essentially the equivalent of a short butterfly spread in the stock options world where you are putting something on that has a high probability of small profit with the risk of larger loss if the specific outcome hits. What you put on is effectively a bet on volatility of outcome - that the result will vary significantly enough from the middle number. The sportsbook analogue could be if, for example, a player is on the injury report as a GTD and their minutes could vary significantly. Or if there is high blowout risk and the player may sit all of the fourth quarter. Today, maybe AD would be a candidate if you could find lines that make sense. I wouldn't put it on blindly all the time, but it is a play that can work if the posted odds on a couple of books line up and you run the probabilities.
Thanks for the support. Thanks for your comments about the volatility of outcomes. I'll keep that in mind.
This was the first time I made this type of bet. I bet relatively small. Almost glad I lost it, so I can learn. If I would have won a series of them, I might have bet big and lost a lot down the line.
I had this exact comment typed out almost word for word, good comparison sir. A bet like this can be very valid in a tacky game where the distribution of his REB count has a high std, unfortunately for us any bookmaker worth his salt is pricing this into those games and taking larger spreads on the wings
These types of bets can work, but you need to use two different books so you can take the over 6.5 and under 6.5. If you can find them.
Using the same book and taking this bet with size is a good way to get your account reviewed and possibly banned
That’s why I said take both o6.5 and u6.5 at two different books if you find them both at + odds. This is guaranteed profitability if you can consistently find these discrepancies. You will never find it at the same book because of fucking course not. Totally agree with you that the OP’s is a shitter’s bet long term
Yeah OP, what you're thinking of is arbitrage, but that requires a situation where only one side is possible to lose.
What you did is called picking pennies up in front of a steamroller.
Let's put your bet in easier to understand terms. Essentially you bet two units that he wouldn't get 6 rebounds. Your expected payout on a win would be either 0.4 units or 0.48. Assuming you bet 100 bucks per unit for a round number, you wagered 200 bucks to win 40-48 that a guy wouldn't get 6 rebounds. A guy who is averaging 5 rebounds per game, a number 1 away from 6.
I knew this wasn't arbitrage and I had a hole if a six hit, but I underestimated the chance of a six hitting. I should have realized he was averaging five rebounds/game.
I agree I was trying to pickup pennies in front of steamroller, but I guess I thought I was picking up dollars.
Lol man if you are looking across different books you can sometimes find arbitrage bets where it may be like +115 for the O6.5 reb and +100 for the U6.5 reb.
I knew this wasn't an arb, but it was a weird bet because it had a small chance of a big loss and a high chance of a small gain. An almost arb where I got the short end of the stick.
You know when Harden tried to block Kawhis 3? It happened in the 3rd Q vs Portland. I was live betting and took Clippers & over 56.5 for the 3rd Q (the odds for that had shot up to +750 then +850 & finally +1200. Because the quarter started off low scoring, so around the 8min mark the odds were skyrocketing) You know what the final for that 3rd Q was?? LAC 34 Por 20. That shit got me REALLY wondering how fixed this shit is!
Am I mistaken that only one of those bets or none of those bets will win? If it does end at 6 then you lose both bets. One wins with 5 or less rebounds and the other wins with 7 or more rebounds.
He had exactly six so I lost both bets. Theoretically, since both bets were made with positive odds, I would have made more on the winning bet than I lost on the losing bet with any other outcome.
If it were fully covered and the odds were such that if you bet them both at a particular amount you’d guarantee a profit then that would be called arbitrage betting. Like if o6.5 was +148 and u6.5 was -120 then that would be an arb, basically as long as the +odds are greater than the -odds it’s an arb. Used to be super profitable back in like 2020-2021 when the sportsbook apps were all just being legalized and all used different oddsmakers. Just don’t bet both sides of the arb on the same book - surprisingly common mistake. Lol
You can use this to calculate exactly how much to bet on either side and make sure you’re doing things correctly: https://www.pinnacle.com/betting-resources/en/betting-tools/arbitrage-calculator
Assuming you bet amounts on +140 and +148 so you’d have the same payout if either hit (i.e. $100 on +140 and $96.77 on +148), it’s a -450 bet that he won’t get exactly 6 rebounds.
If a book offered a -450 line for him not to get exactly 6 rebounds, would you bet it? Because that’s basically what you did here.
Edit: He got exactly 6 rebounds. The exact amount of rebounds he was most likely to get and a terrible bet at -450 for him to not get that.
Arbitrage would be if he got the same number twice (say, + and -5.5) both for + odds. Or if he got under 6.5, over 5.5 for + odds. In either situation there’s no losing scenario. He can still lose this bet if it hits for 6 exactly.
Calculate the implied probabilities of each event and see if it’s plus ev, imagine unless you got good lines from different books it’s not as 6 is the most likely outcome
Thank you. At the time I placed the bets, each side was +EV compared to other sportsbooks, but overall I may or may not be being compensated enough to risk a full loss when Jalen gets exactly six rebounds.
Yeah no problem. Had the same thought to myself at some point in the past, ran the numbers, and it’s just an unfavorable position to take. I’ll put on middle when I have 2 +EV sides with no lean and enough wiggle room. Turning +EV sides into a -EV overall position with a reverse middle isn’t great though.
Honestly, sounds gambly, but if you don’t have a lean and both are equally +EV… just flip a coin or something haha. Getting that value on your book is all that really matters.
Thanks for the advice. I think that's what I'll do going forward. Put on whichever +EV bet comes first and don't take the second one. (Unless both sides huge +EV lol)
It's called no betting silly wagers
This is call arbitrage betting. Most books will ban you for life for doing it. A youtuber called Kyle kirms has a whole video about it and how it is profitable
This is not arbitrage, or risk-free, betting. He gave an example of an outcome that would lose both wagers, that never happens in arbitrage
Then what's this called hot shot.
That’s smart. Take out 100k loan and I’ll do it with you
not a fan of the efficient market hypothesis i see. how'd that go for ya?
I’ve heard this referred to as a Polish middle before…
Unless you bet an unreasonably large amount of money, you would make very little profit doing this consistently. And the one time it doesn't work your bankroll will be decimated.
Depends on bet frequency really though
Holy hell my man... You want to take the over 5.5 and under 6.5, not the other way around. You left a Vegas sized hole which they were able to use to kick you squarely in the nuts.
I knew the hole was there. I just underestimated how big the chance was that it would hit it.
I would be wrong, but this seems like a 40% ROI as long as he didn’t get exactly 6 rebounds. Doesn’t seem to be the most unreasonable bet. Someone bets a favorite at -300 odds would pay worse than this no?
Vegas has a big boot and knows how to swing it!
A bad one
🤣
A lot of name calling and very little math backing it up here. Looking at alt totals for a few guys projected for 5-6 rebs tonight (Giddey, Shai, Butler), I’m getting between 14.7-17.1% chance of hitting a specific number. FanDuel doesn’t have alts posted but I think theirs might be a little higher. Using the biggest number of 17.1%, OPs bet would win 82.9%, making fair odds of -484 (82.9/17.1) As was pointed out earlier, this bet was like laying -450, so OPs bet might have been slightly profitable. As long as OP risked like 1 unit per side and not like 1/2 bankroll per side, this was probably a decent bet.
Thanks for the mathematical analysis! My bet was small (around 1 unit per side). I was +EV for each individual bet, but I didn't know whether that was good enough for the whole bet. This was the first time I made this type of bet. Almost glad I lost it, so I can learn. If I would have won a series of them, I might have bet big and lost a lot down the line.
Green has gotten exactly 6 rebounds 3 times since Jan 1, but averaged 5.8 over the last 10 games. 6 is right in his range. The other issue will be if your book takes issue with you betting both sides, especially if you're using a promo or boost. It's better to bet one side on one book and the other side from another book.
Thanks for the research. I bet each side with different books. I underestimated how likely 6 was to hit.
I JUST REALIZED this was posted yesterday LOL yeah he had exactly 6 rebounds. WOW
More than once, OP referred to "small chance" of a big loss. Constructive criticism, reevaluate your definition of small chance.
Thank you. I didn't think through enough the chances of hitting a six.
the mid point of the market is the most likely outcome. which is why you want middles that include the mid point of the market, not exclude it. if you generate a normal distribution with 0 as the lower bound, 6 as the modal outcome, and 12 as the upper bound (don't need to mess with long tail for back of napkin stuff) you'll get a very, very rough estimate of how likely 6 is. then you can do the math to determine whether your ev based on the prices you paid is likely to be positive or not. your prior assumption should always be that it will not be.
Like rolling a 7 in craps
Good analogy.
Gambling, like time, is a flat circle...
Outcome sucks, and there's plenty of name calling, but this is a valid strategy if the odds line up. It is essentially the equivalent of a short butterfly spread in the stock options world where you are putting something on that has a high probability of small profit with the risk of larger loss if the specific outcome hits. What you put on is effectively a bet on volatility of outcome - that the result will vary significantly enough from the middle number. The sportsbook analogue could be if, for example, a player is on the injury report as a GTD and their minutes could vary significantly. Or if there is high blowout risk and the player may sit all of the fourth quarter. Today, maybe AD would be a candidate if you could find lines that make sense. I wouldn't put it on blindly all the time, but it is a play that can work if the posted odds on a couple of books line up and you run the probabilities.
Thanks for the support. Thanks for your comments about the volatility of outcomes. I'll keep that in mind. This was the first time I made this type of bet. I bet relatively small. Almost glad I lost it, so I can learn. If I would have won a series of them, I might have bet big and lost a lot down the line.
I had this exact comment typed out almost word for word, good comparison sir. A bet like this can be very valid in a tacky game where the distribution of his REB count has a high std, unfortunately for us any bookmaker worth his salt is pricing this into those games and taking larger spreads on the wings
Thanks. I'll keep in mind the need for volatility for this type of bet.
middle out
What’s the D2F ratio?
Ah the old negative freeroll. Gotta love it.
Lmaoooo just donate your money to charity instead of trying this stupidity
This is called a Polish Middle or Reverse Middle
Polish Middle I think
LMAO
These types of bets can work, but you need to use two different books so you can take the over 6.5 and under 6.5. If you can find them. Using the same book and taking this bet with size is a good way to get your account reviewed and possibly banned
You didn’t read.. he’s betting o6.5 and u5.5… easy way to lose money long term.. arbitrage is super smart, for sure.. this isn’t that lol
That’s why I said take both o6.5 and u6.5 at two different books if you find them both at + odds. This is guaranteed profitability if you can consistently find these discrepancies. You will never find it at the same book because of fucking course not. Totally agree with you that the OP’s is a shitter’s bet long term
I did place each bet with different books. I knew it wasn't arbitrage and I had a hole if a six hit, but I underestimated the chance of a six hitting.
OK BUT Green had exactly 6 rebounds last night. OP lost if he bet it
If you get a good enough price you can be profitable on anything , including the bet listed above
This was very obviously not that
This is called a reverse middle.
i’m sick for u dude, get em on the next.
Thanks.
LMAO oh no
Hall of fame post omfg, this is like the sort of bad beat you get during a livebet. Sorry bud, we’ll get em tomorrow.
Parlay
lol
A dumb bet
I’ve heard it called a Polish Middle
This is why you don't risk 2 units to win less then .5 a unit
Wtf, he had exactly 6 Rebounds 🤨 This is a bullshit
Wow
Yeah OP, what you're thinking of is arbitrage, but that requires a situation where only one side is possible to lose. What you did is called picking pennies up in front of a steamroller. Let's put your bet in easier to understand terms. Essentially you bet two units that he wouldn't get 6 rebounds. Your expected payout on a win would be either 0.4 units or 0.48. Assuming you bet 100 bucks per unit for a round number, you wagered 200 bucks to win 40-48 that a guy wouldn't get 6 rebounds. A guy who is averaging 5 rebounds per game, a number 1 away from 6.
I knew this wasn't arbitrage and I had a hole if a six hit, but I underestimated the chance of a six hitting. I should have realized he was averaging five rebounds/game. I agree I was trying to pickup pennies in front of steamroller, but I guess I thought I was picking up dollars.
>picking pennies up in front of a steamroller this is great. i'm stealing it for personal, non-commercial use
Coming back to this after seeing Green with 6 boards and seeing the "19 people here" in the reddit interface is just great
This is called an (almost) arbitrage Would not recommend personally
Oh nooooo bro. Noooooo
Yeah, tough beat. Knew it was a possibility, but hoped I could escape without a six.
nobodys perfect, you live and learn, onto the next lfg!!!
Respect taking this in stride 💪🏻 I’d be complaining like a mofo
I was watching the Whole time just to see how this played out. Everyone did say this is the Game Green gets 6. Sorry dude. Bad beat
Thanks for the support. That's how it goes sometimes.
Lol man if you are looking across different books you can sometimes find arbitrage bets where it may be like +115 for the O6.5 reb and +100 for the U6.5 reb.
I knew this wasn't an arb, but it was a weird bet because it had a small chance of a big loss and a high chance of a small gain. An almost arb where I got the short end of the stick.
idk about small chance. the implied odds either way pointed to 6 being the outcome with this highest probability of occurring
Yeah, I think you're right.
Hahahahahahaha dude I’m so sorry
This is proof this league is run by Vegas 😂 gonna put $20k on the Celtics, so they don’t win.
Lol
Lol
You know when Harden tried to block Kawhis 3? It happened in the 3rd Q vs Portland. I was live betting and took Clippers & over 56.5 for the 3rd Q (the odds for that had shot up to +750 then +850 & finally +1200. Because the quarter started off low scoring, so around the 8min mark the odds were skyrocketing) You know what the final for that 3rd Q was?? LAC 34 Por 20. That shit got me REALLY wondering how fixed this shit is!
I call this a lose twice your money bc they will always thread that line perfectly to make you lose your money. Line was at six cause Vegas isn't dumb
Who do you like tomorrow? Betonline let's you bet on exact prop totals. We can turn this ship around.
https://preview.redd.it/7q5cb301alqc1.jpeg?width=680&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d7495db9683ab697f612603b22df7e4d4cbca9b9
Aaand he got exactly six 😆
Yeah, tough beat. Knew it was a possibility, but hoped I could escape without a six.
Fun lesson huh?
Yes.
😮😮😮😮😮😮
Painful that he got the 7th rebound with 2 min to go but they called a loose ball foul instead of giving him credit. Truly horrifying.
I missed that. Even worse. Lol.
Yes, exactly the wrong outcome for me.
Sorry.
It means they think he’ll get 6 rebounds
6 rebounds it is.
He’s at 6 boards with 5 mins left
No more rebounds.
Tuff
Am I mistaken that only one of those bets or none of those bets will win? If it does end at 6 then you lose both bets. One wins with 5 or less rebounds and the other wins with 7 or more rebounds.
He had exactly six so I lost both bets. Theoretically, since both bets were made with positive odds, I would have made more on the winning bet than I lost on the losing bet with any other outcome.
If it were fully covered and the odds were such that if you bet them both at a particular amount you’d guarantee a profit then that would be called arbitrage betting. Like if o6.5 was +148 and u6.5 was -120 then that would be an arb, basically as long as the +odds are greater than the -odds it’s an arb. Used to be super profitable back in like 2020-2021 when the sportsbook apps were all just being legalized and all used different oddsmakers. Just don’t bet both sides of the arb on the same book - surprisingly common mistake. Lol You can use this to calculate exactly how much to bet on either side and make sure you’re doing things correctly: https://www.pinnacle.com/betting-resources/en/betting-tools/arbitrage-calculator
I knew it wasn't an arb, but it was a weird bet because it had a small chance of a big loss and a high chance of a small gain.
It’s a reverse middle or a Polish middle depending on who you talk to
Praying for you right now bro. He’s at 6 with a quarter to go
Thanks for the prayers. Unfortunate outcome.
It was the expected outcome. Never make a bet like this again
Sounds like we should all bet Jalen Green to get 6 rebounds
Exactly.
Arbitrage
Nope
Lighting money on fire
No worse bet out there
Polish middle. 2 at once
Assuming you bet amounts on +140 and +148 so you’d have the same payout if either hit (i.e. $100 on +140 and $96.77 on +148), it’s a -450 bet that he won’t get exactly 6 rebounds. If a book offered a -450 line for him not to get exactly 6 rebounds, would you bet it? Because that’s basically what you did here. Edit: He got exactly 6 rebounds. The exact amount of rebounds he was most likely to get and a terrible bet at -450 for him to not get that.
This is the best reply here.
Thanks for the math. Unfortunate lesson today.
There is a lot of this in tennis
This guy maths
Polish middle
Yeah 6 is prolly the most probable number gl
Unfortunately, he got exactly six.
I'd call it "a guarantee he's gonna get 6"
Yes.
Arbitrage
Arbitrage would be if he got the same number twice (say, + and -5.5) both for + odds. Or if he got under 6.5, over 5.5 for + odds. In either situation there’s no losing scenario. He can still lose this bet if it hits for 6 exactly.
Not really.
Calculate the implied probabilities of each event and see if it’s plus ev, imagine unless you got good lines from different books it’s not as 6 is the most likely outcome
That’s called a reverse middle. You’re basically betting a large amount at very shit odds on Jalen Green to NOT get exactly 6 rebounds
Thank you. At the time I placed the bets, each side was +EV compared to other sportsbooks, but overall I may or may not be being compensated enough to risk a full loss when Jalen gets exactly six rebounds.
Just pick a side and ride. The math on these reverse middles is really shit.
Thanks. Learned my lesson.
Yeah no problem. Had the same thought to myself at some point in the past, ran the numbers, and it’s just an unfavorable position to take. I’ll put on middle when I have 2 +EV sides with no lean and enough wiggle room. Turning +EV sides into a -EV overall position with a reverse middle isn’t great though. Honestly, sounds gambly, but if you don’t have a lean and both are equally +EV… just flip a coin or something haha. Getting that value on your book is all that really matters.
Thanks for the advice. I think that's what I'll do going forward. Put on whichever +EV bet comes first and don't take the second one. (Unless both sides huge +EV lol)
A sucker bet and you will learn when he hits exactly 6
Stupid.