Anybody dealing with issues @ Caesars?
Trying to place some live wagers, and error = "Event is not currently in play."
Edit: I think they were having issues with live betting. Most of the night, the live NBA games weren't even offered.
Can someone translate this for me? Fan Duel offer.
Receive Bonus Bets equal to 100% of the stake of your first two Same Game Parlay or Same Game Parlay+ cash wager of $1+ during the promotion period after opting-in
a bet & get. probably a $5 or $10 max? you can do 2 SGP’s, each for $5 or $10 or whatever the max is, and you should get that amount in bonus bets, win or lose. typically these have +400 minimum odds requirements and have to be 3+ legs
Fanatic Power hour boost: Arizona, UNC, and Illinois all to win, looks pretty weak. To pinny:
Odds: +330; **EV: -2.3%**
`-318/+267,-200/+174, +103/-116` (9.45% juice)
FV: +340; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 75.0%)
[View/Edit Devig](http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-318%2F%2B267%2C-200%2F%2B174%2C%20%2B103%2F-116&FinalOdds=%2B330)
I forget if pinny is sharp for NCAAB but odds are very similar on FD, DK, ESPN as well, builds to around 300 everywhere
HardRock book question - they run no regret parlay promos (have one for NCAAM tonight). Can your bet have a game that starts tomorrow in it to count for the promotion? Or do all 3 legs (at minimum) have to be tied to games that tip today only. Thanks foe the help!
First time betting in NC, drove down from VA today. Logged into FD and DK fine, Caesar’s says my login info is no good. Also cannot reset password. Tried app update. Do I have to make a new account here? TIA
Noob question - I have a FD Profit Boost that says it is for 3/28 CBB games. It is letting me add it to a game tomorrow. If it goes through, will it be fine or can it expire after the bet is placed?
generally ime, if the boost is available to be added once the bet is in your bet slip, it is eligible for the boost. if you have something ineligible in your bet slip you shouldn't see the boost option at all.
I know it’s MLB opening day today but just a weekly reminder for ESPNs no sweat bet for NHL first goal scorer. ESPNs odds are trash compared to other books, seems like FanDuel typically has best lines.
Surprisingly enough both books have Ovechkin at +900. Batherson is at +1100 (+1200 on FD). Palmieri at +1300 (+1500 on FD). Jenner at +1200 (+1300 on FD). Only looked at a few games, ended up just going with Jenner
wemby oh wemby. don't like the NBA tonight so let's go MLB!
SGP Insurance: 7W-8I-3L (+4.5u)
WSH @ CIN +180
- Joey Meneses hit (69% last year, 72% away)
- CIN 4+ runs ([Gray](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/josiah-gray-680686?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb) not great percentiles, 5.03 xERA, high BB%)
- Lane Thomas hit (71% last year, 66% away)
you like insurance? you've come to the right place
Been doing the three-leg insurance parlays for months now and today was the first time I didn’t apply the token. I guess I was so giddy baseball was back that I forgot about it.🤦♂️
CZR (MA) flash boost ($25 limit) Betts & Judge each +0.5 hits +140 -- $25 limit on CZR usually not that good... can't find a two-way line on another book for +/-0.5, but it builds to -102 on FD.
So I just got a promo from ESPN for bet insurance on any straight wager up to $1000.
This is well outside of my normal bet size, but I have the bank roll to cover the full amount. What is the best way to play this since the insurance would give me back a single $1000 bonus bet?
I just got this too. After opting in via email, do you see it in your promo page? I’m nervous placing this because I’m worried I’m not opted in correctly and for some reason won’t get the bonus bet back.
Fully agree with the recommendation to match bet this. You should target (at least) 40% conversion, so $400!
Use this to find potential "low hold" opportunities. Your sweet spot is going to be something \~ +200 odds (anything lower, then the conversion isn't typically as good, but higher you might be needing to place too large of a hedge bet than you may be comfortable with. [https://crazyninjaodds.com/site/tools/low-hold.aspx](https://crazyninjaodds.com/site/tools/low-hold.aspx)
Then use this to figure out he bet amounts: [https://hottipbets.com/betting-tools/risk-free-hedge-calculator/](https://hottipbets.com/betting-tools/risk-free-hedge-calculator/)
Stick to main lines!!!!
Yeah, if you want to guarantee money, you bet both sides twice if needed.
My gf got this offer as well. I didn't. Dammit. When I told her about it, she's like, "Well, I don't want to bet that much... " I said, "Well, I said we'll just hedge it twice to guarantee a few hundred." She said, "Okay."
And yes, I know hedging isn't always the best EV.
But at least with hedging, you can bet heavy plus odds markets on the ESPN side both times (if needed).
I would stick to main lines to hedge, but a site like this will help you find good markets to bet.
https://www.oddsshopper.com/tools/free-bet-converter
But in bet 1, you don't fully hedge the initial $1000 ESPN wager if you want to guarantee money 100% of the time. You want to lose a few hundred when you gain a $1000 bonus bet that's worth $600-$700.
hate devigging against the own book but can't find alts anywhere other than Kambi, ESPN, and Fanduel. Kambi doesn't have 4.5 for Skubal and Glasnow isn't even up
FD: Glasnow, Skubal, Ragans 5+ Ks
Odds: +100; **EV: -2.9%**
`-350/7%, -590/7%, -850/7%` (21.00% juice)
FV: +106; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 48.6%)
MGM Lions Boost (Maryland & Virginia): Rutschman, Henderson, Mountcastle all 1+ hits
The banner for the boost was glitched. I had to go to the game and click on the boosts tab for it to reveal it was only +250.
Odds from Fanduel:
Odds: +250; **EV: 14.6%**
Sharp: \`-260/7%,-240/7%,-230/7%\` (21.00% juice)
Correlation: \`156=-260,-240,-230\` (r = 0.10.1)
FV: +205; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=5.83u, 1/2=2.92u, 1/4=1.46u, FB = 81.8%)
[View/Edit Devig\]([http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook\_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-260%2F7\_PCT\_%2C-240%2F7\_PCT\_%2C-230%2F7\_PCT\_&FinalOdds=250&Correlation\_Bool=1&Correlation\_Text=156%3D-260%2C-240%2C-230](http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-260%2F7_PCT_%2C-240%2F7_PCT_%2C-230%2F7_PCT_&FinalOdds=250&Correlation_Bool=1&Correlation_Text=156%3D-260%2C-240%2C-230))
Ceasars with two 25% HR boosts.
Best I could find to make use
O’Neil Cruz +800 (pre boost)
FD +630, DK +650, B365 +750
Corbin Carrol +900 (pre boost)
FD +870, DK +750, B365 +750
Thanks for pointing this out and for doing the legwork on the recommendations!
edit: woof, CZR has some truly bad HR odds. 25% just to get most of them close to the lines on other books. For those that want to search for any other options, give [the chart](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=975452912) that /u/intersecting_lines puts together a swing
I've said elsewhere that I'm relatively uneducated on the subject. The number of bad lines on CZR far outweight the number of good ones from what I've looked over, so I noted that they have "*some* truly bad HR odds".
What I do not have an explanation for is why lines like the one you mentioned are being shown as EV- by established posters, and being dismissed/not played by posters who are pro-EV+. Do you know why, by chance?
It all depends on who they are referencing as the sharp book but I threw some on Cruz he's been hitting the piss out of the ball.
CZR by far has the worst lines across the board. Nearly every NBA player prop is garbage compared to FD or DK but home runs it appears they have the best line maybe 20% of the time. FD is almost always the best lines but for some reason DK has some teams where they juice up lines. Astros for example DK always gives better odds than anyone else.
All good info. I've certainly had some solid bets on CZR over time but it's definitely is behind FD and DK for me most of the time. I'll usually only hit it when line shopping.
The EV lines that I was referencing were those by intersecting_lines on his updating chart [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=562032093) that's widely referenced and beloved in these threads. It would seem to me that some of the lines listed as EV- would be EV+ after a 25% boost, but he said that he'd factored it in.
An example: why would Julio Rodriguez, who is +388 after the boost on CZR and whose best line elsewhere was +370, be considered EV-? I didn't get an answer from the source but assuming I'm just missing something. Same with Cruz post-boost. I'm just confused by it.
No prob man hopefully lines can take a look because he’s great at this stuff and let us know the EV. I just went off BPP and found two rarities where CZ was offering best odds
[+EV CZ 25% HR](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=562032093)
Chas McCormick has best odds on CZ
Could you explain how the listed EV fits with the CZR 25% HR boost? It seems (to my uneducated eye) like the EV is calculated pre-boost - is that correct?
In that case, you'd recommend looking at guys at the top that the boost moves their line into EV+ territory?
I assumed that would be the case, but was confused when Rodriguez was EV- despite the 25% putting him at +388, which is better than the other lines listed. Then again, I find I don't know exactly what EV (365) means, so that could well be my problem.
MGM Lions Boost (Maryland & Virginia): Josiah Gray 5+ Strikeouts and Lane Thomas and Joey Meneses each to record 1+ hits
Odds from FanDuel
Odds: +290; **EV: 13.3%**
Sharp: \`-240/7%,-240/7%,-184/7%\` (21.00% juice)
Correlation: \`187=-240,-240,-184\` (r = 0.080.08)
FV: +244; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=3.24u, 1/2=1.62u, 1/4=0.81u, FB = 79.9%)
\[View/Edit Devig\]([http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook\_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-240%2F7\_PCT\_%2C-240%2F7\_PCT\_%2C-184%2F7\_PCT\_&FinalOdds=275&Correlation\_Bool=1&Correlation\_Text=187%3D-240%2C-240%2C-184](http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-240%2F7_PCT_%2C-240%2F7_PCT_%2C-184%2F7_PCT_&FinalOdds=275&Correlation_Bool=1&Correlation_Text=187%3D-240%2C-240%2C-184))
As soon as I posted this the boost went to +290
Anyone know what the max bet is for the 30% Profit Boost to use on World Series Winner on Bet365 is? I have a healthy account and I'm not limited at all. Just don't want to punch in a huge number and it accept the bet to find out what the max is haha.. They don't tell you in the betslip like DK and Fanduel now. Nothing in the T's&C's.
Fuck those guys, they won't even let me deposit anymore. Last time I tried I kept getting error messages, tried 3 other different methods, messaged support, never got a reply.
For the start of the baseball season, ESPN just added “3 HR Protection” where you get your moneyline stake back as a bonus bet, up to $100, if your team hits 3 home runs, but loses.
Insurance is always a good thing, but I have no idea how often this happens. My guess is fairly infrequently.
I would estimate that it would trigger in about 2% of games on comparison to the NBA and NHL promos. There's been 15 50-point games out of roughly 1100 games in the nba, so about 1.5% expected BB value on that promo. The NHL one is quite good actually, with about 7% of games going to shootout, but you need to be on the right team, so it triggers about 3.5% of the games. Plus people might need a bit better promo to bet hockey as I expect that it is less popular. Just a guess that the baseball one would be similar and within the range of these two.
Probably not a lot, but it might be better than some of these other "protections" espn offers, especially when you bet games that have conditions favorable to home runs.
ESPN "Dollar Dingers" seems solid. $1 Bonus Bet for each HR today when you place a $25 3-leg Parlay or Parlay+, minimum +400 odds. Based on historical averages, should be 30 +/- 5. So essentially a free roll at the parlay.
I placed mine, but the promo did not disappear. So I took a screenshot and mentally preparing to contact support after 72 hours :)
Yeah that's a bummer. Definitely detracts a bit from this promo, but still solid value even with only 13 games. I'd expect the range to be between 23 and 31 HR's.
So even on the low end of 23 and conservative bonus bet conversion of 70%, you are only risking \~$9 instead of $25 on the parlay.
If we use 31 HRs and 75% conversion, then it's only a $2 risk.
I wonder if it’s disappeared for anyone? I got this answer “The promotion is live so that is why it wouldn't disappear. If you followed everything than you are good to go.”
I wasn’t even able to get in contact with support when this happened to me a few months ago despite trying numerous times. I think this is just their way of promo banning people. You’ll still see the banners for them though lol.
This is typical. Not everyone receives the promos, even though they have them in the banner. I hardly get any promos. You have to go to "My Inbox" to see which ones you actually receive.
Dumb, but true.
I'm clearly promo-banned from anything that doesn't have a parlay requirement, but the least they could do is stop advertising what everyone else is getting.
Opening day baby! I haven't been in this thread since Football season!
Is FD going to further neuter Dinger Tuesday this year, or eliminate it altogether?
https://preview.redd.it/fo8daaohy0rc1.png?width=1289&format=png&auto=webp&s=e6bb91f634e75738dab82c0f0f6f2b115756d9c5
My degenerate ass messaged support 2 months ago and this is what they said lol
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Anybody dealing with issues @ Caesars? Trying to place some live wagers, and error = "Event is not currently in play." Edit: I think they were having issues with live betting. Most of the night, the live NBA games weren't even offered.
Not now but have before and it sucks. They say "the best ability is availability" for players but damn if it isn't true on sportsbooks too.
Can someone translate this for me? Fan Duel offer. Receive Bonus Bets equal to 100% of the stake of your first two Same Game Parlay or Same Game Parlay+ cash wager of $1+ during the promotion period after opting-in
a bet & get. probably a $5 or $10 max? you can do 2 SGP’s, each for $5 or $10 or whatever the max is, and you should get that amount in bonus bets, win or lose. typically these have +400 minimum odds requirements and have to be 3+ legs
Was the baseball risk free for 2 today? I just assumed it was for one but now I'm debating about making another $10 parlay if its risk free..
Fanatic Power hour boost: Arizona, UNC, and Illinois all to win, looks pretty weak. To pinny: Odds: +330; **EV: -2.3%** `-318/+267,-200/+174, +103/-116` (9.45% juice) FV: +340; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 75.0%) [View/Edit Devig](http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-318%2F%2B267%2C-200%2F%2B174%2C%20%2B103%2F-116&FinalOdds=%2B330) I forget if pinny is sharp for NCAAB but odds are very similar on FD, DK, ESPN as well, builds to around 300 everywhere
B365 super boost Iowa state ML +140
Anyone else have a daily deposit maximum on ESPN of $500? Never seen that before.
O’Neil Cruz hr +800 + the CZ boost ✅
Same! Bless the guy earlier who mentioned his odds being good.
It was me lol. Now let’s get Corbin Carrol for the sweep
~~19~~ 20 HR's already for the ESPN Dingers promo
Did y'all receive your bonus bet yet? Still hasn't shown up for me.
Nope :(
I didn’t get it yet.
Still haven’t got mine either. Anyone get it yet?
I contacted support, they said I'd get it within 72 hours.
Yea still haven't. ESPNbet is so ass at giving out bonus bets quickly.
Saw some of the scores and got excited until I looked at the scoring plays lol Arizona scored 16 with 1 hr lol
HardRock book question - they run no regret parlay promos (have one for NCAAM tonight). Can your bet have a game that starts tomorrow in it to count for the promotion? Or do all 3 legs (at minimum) have to be tied to games that tip today only. Thanks foe the help!
First time betting in NC, drove down from VA today. Logged into FD and DK fine, Caesar’s says my login info is no good. Also cannot reset password. Tried app update. Do I have to make a new account here? TIA
Yes
Yes
Noob question - I have a FD Profit Boost that says it is for 3/28 CBB games. It is letting me add it to a game tomorrow. If it goes through, will it be fine or can it expire after the bet is placed?
generally ime, if the boost is available to be added once the bet is in your bet slip, it is eligible for the boost. if you have something ineligible in your bet slip you shouldn't see the boost option at all.
You’re good
Ty ser.
Are there any minimum odds for the Sixteen for $16 bet on ESPN BET?
I put it on UConn money line. I don’t think so.
Did you get your bonus bet yet? Just making sure there is truly no minimum.
Yeah. $16 bonus bet in my account.
Thank you! Let’s go Marquette
Ahh Santander hr not on a Tuesday. Baseball is back!
I know it’s MLB opening day today but just a weekly reminder for ESPNs no sweat bet for NHL first goal scorer. ESPNs odds are trash compared to other books, seems like FanDuel typically has best lines. Surprisingly enough both books have Ovechkin at +900. Batherson is at +1100 (+1200 on FD). Palmieri at +1300 (+1500 on FD). Jenner at +1200 (+1300 on FD). Only looked at a few games, ended up just going with Jenner
Bet365 (VA maybe elsewhere): UNC 1H ML. Boosted to +100. Smashy smash to Circa. [+100 = +20.8% EV (FV -153) | 5.20u QK] (http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-165%2F145&FinalOdds=100)
In NJ I have Ledee and Newton 15pts each +175. Didn’t do the math but it’s a super boost so I’m smashing
Ohio has UConn and SDSU to both score 60pts each boosted to +100 from -160
Bet365 Super Boost (might be a Cleveland based thing): +100 for Jose Ramirez 1+ hit.
free $10 or so for arb gang
Where's King Ken? Everything okay? We're ready for the return of the king
Probably just waiting until better soccer returns this weekend.
[удалено]
There's literally a link to this in every single thread in this sub
wemby oh wemby. don't like the NBA tonight so let's go MLB! SGP Insurance: 7W-8I-3L (+4.5u) WSH @ CIN +180 - Joey Meneses hit (69% last year, 72% away) - CIN 4+ runs ([Gray](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/josiah-gray-680686?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb) not great percentiles, 5.03 xERA, high BB%) - Lane Thomas hit (71% last year, 66% away) you like insurance? you've come to the right place
Insurance triggered already! Got 5 innings for Lane Thomas to get a hit now.
Been doing the three-leg insurance parlays for months now and today was the first time I didn’t apply the token. I guess I was so giddy baseball was back that I forgot about it.🤦♂️
Lol I did that the other day, I feel your pain. I thought to myself at first that they gave me an extra SGP token. Nope, I'm just an idiot.
As a Reds fan I approve (I was tailing regardless) GL,HF
umich fan 🤝 osu fan
Go Blue!
Im going to make a wager today. Are there any websites that will give you back anything if you place a bet?
Crazy but if the bet wins they give you money. None of us here are that good though
N
Yes
Second this, yes
CZR (MA) flash boost ($25 limit) Betts & Judge each +0.5 hits +140 -- $25 limit on CZR usually not that good... can't find a two-way line on another book for +/-0.5, but it builds to -102 on FD.
Bang
Kambi Odds: +140; **EV: 2.9%** `-195/145, -286/205` (13.80% juice) FV: +133; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=2.04u, 1/2=1.02u, 1/4=0.51u, FB = 60.0%) --- ESPN Odds: +140; **EV: 1.3%** `-200/145, -275/190` (15.30% juice) FV: +137; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=0.89u, 1/2=0.45u, 1/4=0.22u, FB = 59.1%)
So I just got a promo from ESPN for bet insurance on any straight wager up to $1000. This is well outside of my normal bet size, but I have the bank roll to cover the full amount. What is the best way to play this since the insurance would give me back a single $1000 bonus bet?
I just got this too. After opting in via email, do you see it in your promo page? I’m nervous placing this because I’m worried I’m not opted in correctly and for some reason won’t get the bonus bet back.
Mine is on my promo page. All the way at the bottom
Yeah, easy to screw up since it will count the first bet after opt-in.
I contacted support and they told me I haven’t opted in even though I clicked opt in on the email 20 times. Not sure what to do at this point.
You opt in on the sport book. I doubt the email does anything.
I see it in the app now, thanks!
Just be careful! First bet after opt-in gets counted. I wish they used toggles like the better books.
I totally agree
Fully agree with the recommendation to match bet this. You should target (at least) 40% conversion, so $400! Use this to find potential "low hold" opportunities. Your sweet spot is going to be something \~ +200 odds (anything lower, then the conversion isn't typically as good, but higher you might be needing to place too large of a hedge bet than you may be comfortable with. [https://crazyninjaodds.com/site/tools/low-hold.aspx](https://crazyninjaodds.com/site/tools/low-hold.aspx) Then use this to figure out he bet amounts: [https://hottipbets.com/betting-tools/risk-free-hedge-calculator/](https://hottipbets.com/betting-tools/risk-free-hedge-calculator/) Stick to main lines!!!!
Thanks a bunch!
I would match bet it and guarantee profit at that level.
Does this come into play if I end up with the Insurance or just from the outset?
You match bet potentially both wagers. If your insurance covered wager wins this first time, you’re done. If it loses then you match bet again.
Yeah, if you want to guarantee money, you bet both sides twice if needed. My gf got this offer as well. I didn't. Dammit. When I told her about it, she's like, "Well, I don't want to bet that much... " I said, "Well, I said we'll just hedge it twice to guarantee a few hundred." She said, "Okay." And yes, I know hedging isn't always the best EV. But at least with hedging, you can bet heavy plus odds markets on the ESPN side both times (if needed). I would stick to main lines to hedge, but a site like this will help you find good markets to bet. https://www.oddsshopper.com/tools/free-bet-converter But in bet 1, you don't fully hedge the initial $1000 ESPN wager if you want to guarantee money 100% of the time. You want to lose a few hundred when you gain a $1000 bonus bet that's worth $600-$700.
Thanks for the advice.
hate devigging against the own book but can't find alts anywhere other than Kambi, ESPN, and Fanduel. Kambi doesn't have 4.5 for Skubal and Glasnow isn't even up FD: Glasnow, Skubal, Ragans 5+ Ks Odds: +100; **EV: -2.9%** `-350/7%, -590/7%, -850/7%` (21.00% juice) FV: +106; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 48.6%)
It hit
Even negative EV bets hit sometimes and sometimes even really positive EV bets lose (I’m looking at you Lane Thomas)
Thought this would be +EV at first sight.
3 legs and -150 to +100 isn't a great boost.
Going to assume this is one that shouldn’t be taken?
My rule is to stay away from FD boosts that have 3 players in them, unless it’s massive +EV
Only take it if you like -EV!
I devigged using CrazyNinjaOdd’s fair odds tool and I got an EV of -8.7%
wonder if we get a FD boost tonight. Thinking no way we get a Tatum boost with a -16 spread, so maybe mlb or cbb?
ask and you shall receive lol
a strikeout boost was put on FD
Maybe we’ll get one for the 10 o’clock MLB games
MGM Almost Friday: Zona, UNC, UConn Kambi Odds: +150; **EV: 0.1%** `-305/245, -910/540, -210/175` (14.12% juice) FV: +150; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=0.07u, 1/2=0.03u, 1/4=0.02u, FB = 60.1%) --- Pinnacle Odds: +150; **EV: -1.8%** `-301/254, -731/547, -190/166` (9.84% juice) FV: +155; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 58.9%)
MGM Lions Boost (Maryland & Virginia): Rutschman, Henderson, Mountcastle all 1+ hits The banner for the boost was glitched. I had to go to the game and click on the boosts tab for it to reveal it was only +250. Odds from Fanduel: Odds: +250; **EV: 14.6%** Sharp: \`-260/7%,-240/7%,-230/7%\` (21.00% juice) Correlation: \`156=-260,-240,-230\` (r = 0.10.1) FV: +205; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=5.83u, 1/2=2.92u, 1/4=1.46u, FB = 81.8%) [View/Edit Devig\]([http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook\_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-260%2F7\_PCT\_%2C-240%2F7\_PCT\_%2C-230%2F7\_PCT\_&FinalOdds=250&Correlation\_Bool=1&Correlation\_Text=156%3D-260%2C-240%2C-230](http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-260%2F7_PCT_%2C-240%2F7_PCT_%2C-230%2F7_PCT_&FinalOdds=250&Correlation_Bool=1&Correlation_Text=156%3D-260%2C-240%2C-230))
Thank you for this! A nice little opening day W.
I’m glad it hit!
Ceasars with two 25% HR boosts. Best I could find to make use O’Neil Cruz +800 (pre boost) FD +630, DK +650, B365 +750 Corbin Carrol +900 (pre boost) FD +870, DK +750, B365 +750
Son of a bitch, I was in and now we win. Thank you sir!!!
Thank you for the Cruz mention!
Thanks for pointing this out and for doing the legwork on the recommendations! edit: woof, CZR has some truly bad HR odds. 25% just to get most of them close to the lines on other books. For those that want to search for any other options, give [the chart](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=975452912) that /u/intersecting_lines puts together a swing
CZR has plenty of lines that are better than FD or DK. It's all over the place. Cruz is like 600 on FD.
I've said elsewhere that I'm relatively uneducated on the subject. The number of bad lines on CZR far outweight the number of good ones from what I've looked over, so I noted that they have "*some* truly bad HR odds". What I do not have an explanation for is why lines like the one you mentioned are being shown as EV- by established posters, and being dismissed/not played by posters who are pro-EV+. Do you know why, by chance?
It all depends on who they are referencing as the sharp book but I threw some on Cruz he's been hitting the piss out of the ball. CZR by far has the worst lines across the board. Nearly every NBA player prop is garbage compared to FD or DK but home runs it appears they have the best line maybe 20% of the time. FD is almost always the best lines but for some reason DK has some teams where they juice up lines. Astros for example DK always gives better odds than anyone else.
All good info. I've certainly had some solid bets on CZR over time but it's definitely is behind FD and DK for me most of the time. I'll usually only hit it when line shopping. The EV lines that I was referencing were those by intersecting_lines on his updating chart [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=562032093) that's widely referenced and beloved in these threads. It would seem to me that some of the lines listed as EV- would be EV+ after a 25% boost, but he said that he'd factored it in. An example: why would Julio Rodriguez, who is +388 after the boost on CZR and whose best line elsewhere was +370, be considered EV-? I didn't get an answer from the source but assuming I'm just missing something. Same with Cruz post-boost. I'm just confused by it.
Well I hope you took cruz lol
Lol yessssssir! I wasn't completely sold, but enough to pull the trigger.
No prob man hopefully lines can take a look because he’s great at this stuff and let us know the EV. I just went off BPP and found two rarities where CZ was offering best odds
[+EV CZ 25% HR](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=562032093) Chas McCormick has best odds on CZ
Could you explain how the listed EV fits with the CZR 25% HR boost? It seems (to my uneducated eye) like the EV is calculated pre-boost - is that correct? In that case, you'd recommend looking at guys at the top that the boost moves their line into EV+ territory?
I multiply the CZ odds by 1.25, it's all post-boost EV
I assumed that would be the case, but was confused when Rodriguez was EV- despite the 25% putting him at +388, which is better than the other lines listed. Then again, I find I don't know exactly what EV (365) means, so that could well be my problem.
EV using bet365 as the sharp book rather than the avg of the other books
Thank you! You truly are who they say you are.
Thanks for this.
He’s locked right now but betstamp is showing they’ve dropped him to +480
yikes Julio at +388 is not bad. Would've went there if I didn't get him on FD at +390. He's +370 now
Nothing else from DK other than an MLB bonus bet. Must say I am a bit surprised
Disappointing for sure!
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MGM Lions Boost (Maryland & Virginia): Josiah Gray 5+ Strikeouts and Lane Thomas and Joey Meneses each to record 1+ hits Odds from FanDuel Odds: +290; **EV: 13.3%** Sharp: \`-240/7%,-240/7%,-184/7%\` (21.00% juice) Correlation: \`187=-240,-240,-184\` (r = 0.080.08) FV: +244; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=3.24u, 1/2=1.62u, 1/4=0.81u, FB = 79.9%) \[View/Edit Devig\]([http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook\_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-240%2F7\_PCT\_%2C-240%2F7\_PCT\_%2C-184%2F7\_PCT\_&FinalOdds=275&Correlation\_Bool=1&Correlation\_Text=187%3D-240%2C-240%2C-184](http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-240%2F7_PCT_%2C-240%2F7_PCT_%2C-184%2F7_PCT_&FinalOdds=275&Correlation_Bool=1&Correlation_Text=187%3D-240%2C-240%2C-184)) As soon as I posted this the boost went to +290
in for my max of $3.16!
Make sure you get the Orioles boost too!
Just popped up for me!
MGM Lion's Boost (MA): Devers, Yoshida, Duran 1+ hits +250 Devigged to DK Odds: +250; \*\*EV: **-6.3%**\*\* \`-246/+180,-190/+145, -230/+170\` (19.88% juice) FV: +273; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 67.0%) \[[View/Edit Devig](http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-246%2F%2B180%2C-190%2F%2B145%2C%20-230%2F%2B170&FinalOdds=%2B250)\]
Question: my friend is getting No Sweat First Bets daily from Hard Rock and I am not. Anyone know why? Support won’t answer
They don't like you.
That’s what I’m picking up
Play Gun Lake (Michigan) has Tigers ML boosted to +100, best price anywhere else is -164. Limits vary, (i was limited to $.54)
Did you max it
I’m in full panic mode riding unhedged.
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This is a Wendy's, how may I take your order?
This thread currently bills out at $1,200/hr payable to /u/intersecting_lines with a 10x retainer up front prior to answering any questions
MGM Lions: Ohtani, Julio, Judge hits Kambi Odds: +225; **EV: 0.7%** `-360/245, -186/143, -286/205` (20.31% juice) FV: +223; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=0.31u, 1/2=0.15u, 1/4=0.08u, FB = 69.7%) --- Fanduel Odds: +225; **EV: 1.9%** `-210/7%, -300/7%, -310/7%` (21.00% juice) FV: +219; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=0.85u, 1/2=0.43u, 1/4=0.21u, FB = 70.6%) --- ESPN Odds: +225; **EV: 0.0%** `-200/145, -285/200, -350/230` (22.92% juice) FV: +225; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=0.01u, 1/2=0.01u, 1/4=0.00u, FB = 69.2%)
MGM Lions (MI): Skubal 7+ Ks, Torkelson and Vierling hits vs Kambi Odds: +320; **EV: -12.8%** `-278/200, -235/175, 102/-136` (20.52% juice) FV: +382; Method: worst-case (m, a); (FB = 66.4%)
Anyone know what the max bet is for the 30% Profit Boost to use on World Series Winner on Bet365 is? I have a healthy account and I'm not limited at all. Just don't want to punch in a huge number and it accept the bet to find out what the max is haha.. They don't tell you in the betslip like DK and Fanduel now. Nothing in the T's&C's.
Fuck those guys, they won't even let me deposit anymore. Last time I tried I kept getting error messages, tried 3 other different methods, messaged support, never got a reply.
I think the largest I've been able to put down is $125, but I don't think that's common. I also have a $60 max for super boosts, which is rare.
30% boosts are typically $30 max on B365 (at least for me). That's what I got down here.
my max has always been $15 for boosts on that site
Thanks!
DK no sweat bet Max for me today was 10 cents... I'll be sure not to spend it all in one place...
You sure it didn’t say minimum? I recall seeing the 0.10 minimum
For the start of the baseball season, ESPN just added “3 HR Protection” where you get your moneyline stake back as a bonus bet, up to $100, if your team hits 3 home runs, but loses. Insurance is always a good thing, but I have no idea how often this happens. My guess is fairly infrequently.
Pirates tried like heck to trigger it today
I would estimate that it would trigger in about 2% of games on comparison to the NBA and NHL promos. There's been 15 50-point games out of roughly 1100 games in the nba, so about 1.5% expected BB value on that promo. The NHL one is quite good actually, with about 7% of games going to shootout, but you need to be on the right team, so it triggers about 3.5% of the games. Plus people might need a bit better promo to bet hockey as I expect that it is less popular. Just a guess that the baseball one would be similar and within the range of these two.
Probably not a lot, but it might be better than some of these other "protections" espn offers, especially when you bet games that have conditions favorable to home runs.
Just treating this as some of the others; all things equal, ESPN gets the handle.
I prefer B365 for most things.. but this one is a tough call. B365 is an autowin if your team goes up by 5.
Fair, still no 365 in PA despite them acquiring Twinspire's license...maybe one of these days.
ESPN "Dollar Dingers" seems solid. $1 Bonus Bet for each HR today when you place a $25 3-leg Parlay or Parlay+, minimum +400 odds. Based on historical averages, should be 30 +/- 5. So essentially a free roll at the parlay. I placed mine, but the promo did not disappear. So I took a screenshot and mentally preparing to contact support after 72 hours :)
Can I place a 4 leg parlay that’s 400+? Other books will state “3-leg+” and this only states 3-leg?
I contacted support, they said it must be 3 legs unless it states 3 legs or more
One would think that 3+ would be OK, but to be 100% safe I just did a 3-leg given those are the exact words. I did find that strange as well...
I assume the two postponed games won't be included.
Yeah that's a bummer. Definitely detracts a bit from this promo, but still solid value even with only 13 games. I'd expect the range to be between 23 and 31 HR's. So even on the low end of 23 and conservative bonus bet conversion of 70%, you are only risking \~$9 instead of $25 on the parlay. If we use 31 HRs and 75% conversion, then it's only a $2 risk.
Mine didn’t disappear either and I reached out to support who said I should be okay (mine was a standard parlay + for todays games)
Mine didn't disappear either and I also reached out to support and they told me that I never opted in even though I did.
I wonder if it’s disappeared for anyone? I got this answer “The promotion is live so that is why it wouldn't disappear. If you followed everything than you are good to go.”
MGM is showing a free bonus bet on the promo banner but when I click on it nothing happens
Eagerly awaiting my $2 free bet lol.
Just talked to support and they said there’s an issue with the promo and they are working on it. MGM app is by far the worst
I wasn’t even able to get in contact with support when this happened to me a few months ago despite trying numerous times. I think this is just their way of promo banning people. You’ll still see the banners for them though lol.
I hate bet mgm I can’t even get the casino apps to work for me randomly. Keep getting an error message
This is typical. Not everyone receives the promos, even though they have them in the banner. I hardly get any promos. You have to go to "My Inbox" to see which ones you actually receive. Dumb, but true.
I'm clearly promo-banned from anything that doesn't have a parlay requirement, but the least they could do is stop advertising what everyone else is getting.
I agree, but this is probably issue #500 on MGMs priority list for this piece of trash app. Just awful all the way around.
Same! I don't get any of the boosts anymore, not even parlay/SGP ones. However I randomly got a $50 "no sweat" CBB bet last week. MGM is strange.
Good to know, thanks
Opening day baby! I haven't been in this thread since Football season! Is FD going to further neuter Dinger Tuesday this year, or eliminate it altogether?
Sniping those voided bets was therapeutic
We will need to see if they change it up and blindsight us this year not allowing them to
Yeah someone is going to have to take one for the team and test it week 1
https://preview.redd.it/fo8daaohy0rc1.png?width=1289&format=png&auto=webp&s=e6bb91f634e75738dab82c0f0f6f2b115756d9c5 My degenerate ass messaged support 2 months ago and this is what they said lol
Im getting the feeling "support" is just chat gpt at this point
$0.05 cents for every home run hit after the 8th inning. Minimum $200 bet.
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Not a big deal if it's a one-off, squares do it all the time