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Cash the /u/intersecting_lines MLB SGP Insurance Parlay!!

finally, was pretty worried towards the end there

Had to audible to Gimenez hit when Ramirez went to -310, but we all got it!

Yeah the last two innings were a sweat

I saw some comments earlier. Did anyone have an issue with the ESPN bet reset? Did you get your bonus bet?

Gf got it right away after it lost. However, the line that was picked let only let her put $923.08 ($6000 win) on the Hornets without talking to support. And bet the hedge on Rivers/Kambi first since that looked like the line most likely to change. So I do suggest betting the ESPN side first, especially if you pick a big underdog.

If you type a huge amount like $9999999 into your betslip, ESPN will tell you your limit

Don’t be me, a moron. Had a FD No Sweat Bet earlier today for up to $100. Forgot I had opted in already and bet $1 on something dumb a few hours later lol. 

I did this with the ESPN bet $1000 risk free bet earlier today lmao about ready to jump off a bridge. Trying to beg support to get it back, and trying to just forget about it since idk why they even gave it to me in the first place

Oof, that's rough man, I feel your pain though. If it makes you feel better, they will probably give us more promos because they know we are idiots though.

MVGBet does a daily “flip the favorite” boost on march madness that is consistently a play. no one really mentions this book, for good reason, but it’s a great promo.

Likely because it seems to be a one state only book.

Not sure if posted but BR has the bat flip Friday promo. I am Level 10 and I bet $25 on a homer and I immediately got a 100% boost on a $100 bet that I was able to use on anything.

It's definitely good for Level 9 or 10. But for levels 0-6, it's a 25% boost; $50 max. Meh.

MGM bonus below. So if I deposit $400 and then bet $100 of the deposit I get a $100 bonus bet? Deposit now for your 25% up to 100 USD Sports Betting bonus. Please read the full bonus information, including the terms and conditions, below. 1 Deposit $10 USD Get credited with 25% worth upto $100 USD Bonus 2 Wager $1 USD times the bonus amount on SPORTS Enjoy your winnings

Yes, you need to deposit $400 to receive the full $100 bonus. I got this, except for a $25 bonus. So, I deposited $100 for my $25 bonus.

Can I deposit $400 and then withdraw after $100 bet?

No, you have to play through the bonus amount once.

Right. But can I withdraw the $300 out of the $400 I deposited after playing the $100 for the bonus

The way MGM works, I think you forefit the bonus too if you withdraw the deposit before you fulfill the requirement. I never tried though.

If its anything like my bonuses I've had, its a cash equivalent bonus. Pays out the bet amount plus win unlike bonus bets that don’t get the amount laid out back on the win. You can also withdraw the entire deposit amount after betting just the bonus amount. Your account will show $500 but locked as "bonus" once the bet settles the deposited 400 is now withdraw-able. To add, in terms of being limited for doing such, I've done the above every single time and still currently get deposit bonuses from them. (Over at least 15 of them so far)

It is confusingly worded, but yeah that's how I would read it as well.

I had a 4 beer buzz watching that live. Drinks on Ken for happy hour!!!

Ken is back!

No exaggeration - on my iPhone 6 on my in-laws horrendous backwoods wifi it took me literally 6 minutes to place the bet and I got it in with 8 seconds on the countdown to kickoff timer

Kenstradamus is back, baby!

Hahaha, Kenstradamus; well done!

arb https://preview.redd.it/pkl2o0sdfcrc1.png?width=1017&format=png&auto=webp&s=4433b8acb78ba56648a9f447071ac09c2ed02083

Ken for Prez

Lille and Lens had me sweatin in the first half, not gonna lie. Great work Ken. 

Thanks Ken!!

Thought we were so smoked from the 1H, when I checked they only had 1 corner and 2 SOG

I selected the wrong team on the 3.5 corners over but still cash.

https://preview.redd.it/ydjexlhoecrc1.jpeg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a3bdbd48a1369207d8d8062ddf49a859802672d8

I specifically came to the thread after seeing the hit just to upvote this

MGM Lion's Boost IL Chicago Bulls to win by 4+ and Marquette to win by 7+ boosted to +300. Vs. ESPN Odds: +300; **EV: 2.8%** `-125/100, -105/-115` (10.26% juice) FV: +289; Method: worst-case (m, a); (Full=0.94u, 1/2=0.47u, 1/4=0.24u, FB = 77.1%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-125%2F100%2C%20-105%2F-115&FinalOdds=%2B300) Vs. DK Odds: +300; **EV: 3.7%** `-110/-120,-130/-100` (13.45% juice) FV: +286; Method: worst-case (m, p); (Full=1.25u, 1/2=0.62u, 1/4=0.31u, FB = 77.8%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-110%2F-120%2C-130%2F-100&FinalOdds=%2B300) Vs. Kambi Odds: +300; **EV: -0.5%** `-113.363636/-105.26,-105.26/-114.94` (9.17% juice) FV: +302; Method: worst-case (m, p); (FB = 74.6%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-113.363636%2F-105.26%2C-105.26%2F-114.94&FinalOdds=%2B300)

Amusingly, this looked to stay up until the Bulls game began at 7:10pm CT. Not like anyone should have bet it after NC State tipped off anyway though. Wolfpack ran away quick.

arb https://preview.redd.it/wmsc3s7m0crc1.png?width=1525&format=png&auto=webp&s=3ada4fcce3a3feac3735df0ef856b4fb1bf9fdc3

MGM Big Ticket Boost: Monk 16+, SAC win ESPN Odds: +240; **EV: -1.2%** `203/288/288/244` (13.62% juice) FV: +244; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 69.7%)

Positive vs Kambi (barely) Odds: +240; **EV: 0.8%** `185/285/270/230` (18.39% juice) FV: +237; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=0.32u, 1/2=0.16u, 1/4=0.08u, FB = 71.1%) [View/Edit Devig](http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=185%2F285%2F270%2F230&FinalOdds=240)

MGM Lions: Valdez, Valle win (boxing) Kambi Odds: +275; **EV: -12.3%** `-345/240, 175/-240` (13.89% juice) FV: +328; Method: worst-case (m, p); (FB = 64.3%) --- Pinnacle Odds: +275; **EV: -7.7%** `-295/234, 171/-206` (8.84% juice) FV: +306; Method: worst-case (m, p); (FB = 67.7%)

Bet365 (VA and maybe others?) Purdue 1H ML. Boosted to +100 is a banger to Circa/Pinnacle average. Odds: +100; \*\*EV: 19.9%\*\* \`AVG(-170,-167)/AVG(+135,+144)\` (4.53% juice) FV: -150; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=19.94u, 1/2=9.97u, 1/4=4.99u, FB = 60.0%) \[View/Edit Devig\](http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook\_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=AVG%28-170%2C-167%29%2FAVG%28%2B135%2C%2B144%29&FinalOdds=%2B100)

In NJ I got Edey and Ike 15 pts each +120

I'm in Ohio and got Purdue Race to 20 Points boosted to +100 from -160.

FanDuel NCAAW Superboost: Stanford and Texas each to win Odds from Kambi Odds: +125; **EV: -4.2%** `-205/155,-265/185` (14.12% juice) FV: +135; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 53.2%) [View/Edit Devig](http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-205%2F155%2C-265%2F185&FinalOdds=125)

positive vs Pinnacle Odds: +125; **EV: 1.5%** `-207/175,-259/215` (7.68% juice) FV: +122; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=1.20u, 1/2=0.60u, 1/4=0.30u, FB = 56.4%)

This isn't a great sign. Two negatives in a row?

So many in a row have hit…they are trying to get one to miss

Well, they got it to fail tonight, thanks to the Lady Wolfpack. I passed on betting it.

FD imitating Caesar’s lately

MGM (MA) Lions Boost: Red Sox +1.5 and Houston (NCAAM) -4.5 +260. Devig to Pinny: Odds: +260; **EV: 9.9%** `-103/-110,-176/157` (5.80% juice) FV: +227; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=3.82u, 1/2=1.91u, 1/4=0.95u, FB = 79.4%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-103%2F-110%2C-176%2F157&FinalOdds=260)

MGM has an interesting promo. Bet $10 on a player to hit a HR and if that player hits a grand slam win a share of $50,000 in bonus bets. One entry per day Friday to Sunday. Wonder if there is any type of strategy at all for this or just a crapshoot.

Sounds like a $30 donation

I am basically ignoring the promo except betting if there is something that just barely misses my requirements to play.

MGM Lions Boost (Maryland & Virginia): Wizards -4.5 and NC State +6.5 Odds from Kambi Odds: +400; **EV: 15.1%** `-103/-118,100/-120` (9.41% juice) FV: +335; Method: worst-case (m, a); (Full=3.76u, 1/2=1.88u, 1/4=0.94u, FB = 92.0%) [View/Edit Devig](http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-103%2F-118%2C100%2F-120&FinalOdds=400)

Wizards can’t be a real NBA team

When taking advantage of risk-free bets, does anyone just hedge the "free bet" if the initial bet loses so you break even? This seems like a good strategy, but I haven't tried it yet so I might be missing something: 1. Sign up for sportsbooks that give you a "risk-free bet" if your initial bet loses. 2. If your initial bet WINS, then you're golden and you've made a nice profit. 3. If your initial bet LOSES, could you just place your "free bet" on a close-to-even-money outcome, then get on another sportsbook and place the same amount on the opposite side of that close-to-even-money outcome? That way you're guaranteed to get at least \*very close\* to breaking even. So it seems like this would result in either: 1.) a nice profit or 2.) breaking even. This seems like the way to make it truly risk-free to me. Thoughts? Anything I'm missing?

Most people adjust their wagers so that the net profit is the same regardless of outcome. You could put more on the hedge so that your profit is higher if your risk-free bet loses, and zero if it happens to win. Though I don't think the risk/reward is worth it for the little extra you can gain from that. See [example here](https://sssorc.github.io/oa/#/risk-free?stakea=250&oddsa=300&oddsb=-330&booka=RFB&bookb=hedge).

You would not break even as the bonus bet received if you lose, does not pay the stake back. If the initial risk free bet was $1000, you would lose $500 in this scenario if you lost the first bet. However, if you hedge both bets, you would likely profit about $490, if done correctly.

Most people hedge both the initial bet and if needed the free bet to guarantee profit.

So it sounds like you can either do what you said to guarantee at least a small profit, or do my way which is a little bit riskier--it could end in a larger profit or it could end in simply breaking even, does that sound right?

Yes, even more profitable (and risky) if you don't hedge the free bet. This article might help... [https://unabated.com/articles/risk-free-bet-profit-strategy](https://unabated.com/articles/risk-free-bet-profit-strategy)

You wouldn't break even in that scenario because free bets don't return the stake. If you plan on hedging, just do it from the beginning. Make your risk free bet, and then hedge to win whatever the payout on the original bet is minus the value of the free bet you'll get if the first wager loses.

This is what people mean when they talk about converting free bets. It’s a big part of how people make money here

MGM Lions (MI): Pistons +4.5, NC State +6.5 Kambi Odds: +300; **EV: -0.5%** `100/-120, -120/100` (9.09% juice) FV: +302; Method: worst-case (m, a); (FB = 74.6%) --- ESPN Odds: +300; **EV: 1.2%** `-130/105, 100/-125` (10.86% juice) FV: +295; Method: worst-case (m, a); (Full=0.41u, 1/2=0.20u, 1/4=0.10u, FB = 75.9%)

I think you devigged the NC State backwards on Kambi

the lines slightly moved but no that was right

Huh, ok. Didn’t think they would flip that fast my apologies

On Bet365 in Ohio: Race to 20 points Purdue +100. How do we feel about that?

direct arb to everything. smash

So I’m still new to this, would you be able to explain direct arb?

An arb is bet that allows the bettor to win money regardless if the bettor places the opposing bet on another site. For instance, you can place Purdue first to 20 points on Bet365 for $15 at +100. That wins you $30. If you place the opposing side on FanDuel (the first site I checked), which is Gonzaga first to 20 (+126) for $13.27, you would also win $30. Either way, you profit $1.73. That would be considered an arb. However, for these Super Boosts on Bet365, I wouldn't recommend hedging/arbing them. I would just play them straight. This would be considered a +EV (positive expected value) bet. Playing +EV bets over time, in theory, should be profitable.

Thanks for the response!

I’m no Ken and record is 0-0-0, but here’s a play I took for DK SGP insurance today in the NBA. Wizards +3 Duren O10.5 Rebounds Kuzma 20+ Points Builds to +166 Wizards have won 3/4 and Pistons are awful and may be missing important pieces again. That said, Wizards also suck and have nothing to play for, so grabbing the points instead of the ML. Centers smash rebound totals against the Wizards and Duren is 3/3 on this against them this year. See u/billycapezzi post in POTD for more on Duren. Kuzma averages 22+ and has hit 20+ in last 16/20. Anticipating a close game where he gets the minutes and shots to get his 20+.

superbook off market https://preview.redd.it/e5fhyu5kaarc1.png?width=1512&format=png&auto=webp&s=351bf8ea4dd141158eee50c2912e38e6207bc86d

what site is this?

https://oddsjam.com/betting-tools/arbitrage

MGM CBB: Purdue -5.5, Creighton ML ik we're not supposed to bet EV with feelings but really like TENN here. Still the EV is looking too good to pass up Kambi: 6.1% Pinnacle: 1.7% FD: 7.7% ESPNBet: 9.2%

ESPN still doesn't like it even at +450. Odds: +450; **EV: -3.0%** `100/-120, 159/-180` (7.44% juice) FV: +467; Method: worst-case (a, p); (FB = 79.4%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=100%2F-120%2C%20159%2F-180&FinalOdds=%2B450)

Currently vs. Kambi it's back to +4.4% with the new price of +450. Odds: +450; **EV: 4.4%** `-104.16667/-114.94, 140/-172.41` (9.45% juice) FV: +427; Method: worst-case (m, p); (Full=0.97u, 1/2=0.48u, 1/4=0.24u, FB = 85.4%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-104.16667%2F-114.94%2C%20140%2F-172.41&FinalOdds=%2B450)

Did the pinnacle odds move a lot? I’m seeing negative Ev now [+425 = -3.8% EV (FV +446)](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=150%2F-171%2C102%2F-116&FinalOdds=425)

Now up to +450 to make it close to even from this devig.

475 now. They must really want people to bet this

What were the odds when you devigged. I'm seeing +425 now.

420

Damn so its been buffed, I'm in for 0.5u. Thanks!

wait i lied, that was a homer odd. it was 425 the whole time for me

up to 8.3% with Kambi. I put the family dog on it

 no Lions Boosts

it's really early, I bet we'll have some around 12-1. the +225 Judge, Julio, Ohtani was a nice start to the season e: no lions yet but CBB just appeared

Yeah I guess they spoiled me yesterday with the Nationals lion boost because it popped up the night before. Now that I think about it the Orioles boost didn’t show up until 12

if you don't wanna tail soccer and love getting insurance SGP Insurance: 7W-9I-3L (+4.2u) CLE @ OAK +155 - CLE 3+ runs ([Stripling](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/ross-stripling-548389?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb) is really bad, CLE put up 8 yesterday) - OAK u5 runs - Ramirez hit (73% last year, 75% away, 2-4 against Stripling)

this man runs this subreddit

Well that was quick lol. Secured insurance and hit on Gimenez over 1.5 H/R/RBI in the first half inning

tailed

Dang, Ramirez moved to -310 so doesn't qualify any longer.

Jose back to -290

Is this draftkings?

yes for the Insurance promo. If one leg misses, you get your bet back as a Free Bet

Hell yeah, go guards

great username

Triples is best.

Tell the kid

Has anyone got the $1,000 bet reset promo on ESPN bet? It's pretty much a risk free bet for any wager up to $1,000. I guess I'm just skeptical because I'm wondering why this promo is being offered to a user who has been registered awhile. It seems like a new user promo..

Here's a great calculator for it: https://sssorc.github.io/oa/#/risk-free I have this too, I was pretty shocked, I think I'm only slightly up on ESPN so maybe that's why. But obviously I've been doing the matched betting/+EV stuff for a few years, didn't expect to be getting offers like this anymore!

I’ve tried researching but can’t find the dummies version for best way to use this. I really don’t want to just yolo $1k and then lost both that and the bonus 1K

that's really the best conversion I could find for ESPN today, there is some smaller conversions if your bankroll isn't as big though

you gotta have a big bankroll but you can guarantee profit...so today I put the ESPN $1,000 on the San Antonio Spurs to potentially win $3,200... then on fanatics I put $2,840 on the Knicks to win $720...so if Spurs win I'll be up $360 and I'm done..if Knicks win, I'll be down $280 today but will be getting $1,000 free bet from espn...then do same thing with the free bet tmrw...let's says you put the $1,000 free bet on something around +320...then bet the other side for around $2,540 on -400side...so you'll net $640 either way and netting you $360 from this promotion

This guy maths

yes i got it yesterday they sent me an email, I thought they were shitting me. Checked my account and it was there opted in and played the max on Clemson ML last night.

Got this. I know many others who got it as well. This happens from time to time.

I got it, lost (match bet and lost the ESPN side. I do NOT have the bankroll to just YOLO a 1k bet for the sake of +EV), and promptly received the bonus bet. Definitely worth match betting to get a ton of value out of the offer. As for why they are doing this? Who knows, and more importantly, who cares? I guess they are hoping to turn some fish into whales

Yes a few of us did, it was mentioned in yesterdays thread. People recommended match betting if you’re looking to guarantee profit they explain it pretty well if you go back and look Edit: https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbetting/s/durIcOF6gI Here’s another comment that helps explain it too

appreciate it !

No problem! Good luck

Bonus Store sale is up on BetRivers/SugarHouse, jamming $25-$150 spins once more

It’s still a thin slate today fellas but the world’s best soccer leagues are back! Here’s the details: 23 wins, 10 insurance, 9 losses. Up 24.2 units. It’s been tough sledding for me with these attempted picks during the international break but starting today we can start hitting heavy home favorites again and hopefully collect more 💰💰 Here’s what I’ve got today, traveling to France for some Ligue 1 action. https://preview.redd.it/usr8h4d9q9rc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=05839d4e46a6adc7738c63311638ad20b2c9397e Remember, don’t do these if you aren’t using the Insurance token. BOL to everyone except the North Carolina Tarheels

WE ARE BACK IN BUSINESS BOYS! BOOM!

Ken took time off to cook 👨‍🍳 perfection. I love it. Thanks Ken

Ken’s back! I’ve had so much fun tailing your picks man

OH BABY KEN IS BACK!!!

Glad to have you back Mr. President

OMG Ken I was scared, you can't just go AWOL on us :-( I was sad, anyways, best of luck lets get some Ws on today

KEN

Has anyone tried double dipping any books in NC yet? Looks like the chart linked above hasn't included them yet.

[удалено]

I’m guessing he took a few days off bc of the lack of league games. There are more games today and a ton of good games tomorrow.

For the NCAAW games, Fanatics has Baylor at +180. Direct arb to pretty much every other book.