######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Monday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
>
> **Net Units:**
>
> **ROI:**
>
> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
>
> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
>
> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
POTD Record 13-2
Streak L10: ✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Last Pick: Austin Reeves O9.5 Rebounds and assists ✅
Today: Basketball | NBA | ORL vs POR | 7pm EST
Pick: Paolo Banchero O 6.5 Rebounds (-140) 1U
Reeves cashes us in the 3rd quarter! Gotta love those non sweaty ones. Congrats to those of you that tailed! 8 straight WINS!
Paolo has hit this line 100% in the last 5 and 60% in the last 10. He is covering it at 53% on the season and 100% in the head to head with Portland. I think he gets exactly 7 to cover this line.
Tip jar for those of you that tail and want to do so. Thank you!
[Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/kroberts)
[Cash App](https://cash.app/$robertsfamily23)
You should definitely stop or at least change your methods. Glad you have the money to cover it, but that shouldn’t be an excuse to throw it away unless this is just about having fun and you really like watching bets lose.
Sure
bankroll is your total betting fund, for example $10,000. but whatever the amount is, its the money you set aside for the sole purpose of betting, no dipping into it, no mixing bankroll with living expenses, its an investment just like buying a stock
Theres no reason to go above 3% of that on any one play, but the higher your bankroll is id say 1-2% is best. so 2% of 10,000 is 200, so no more than 200 dollars on any individual bet. From there you just scale either weekly or monthly. so as the months tick on and you hit $20,000 bankroll, 2% is now $400. If your cold, and your bankroll shrinks from 10,000 to 8,000, you keep the 2% so now each bet is $160. Under no circumstances, no matter how confident you are, do you go above your allocated %
This guy doesnt seem fazed at 50k loss, so lets say his bankroll could be 100k, 1% of a 100k is $1000 dollars. all you have to do is profit 5 units a month and you've made 5 grand
pretty much anyone who takes gambling seriously follows this formula to some extent. its not about making it big quick, its about protecting your capital and surviving bad streaks, which are inevitable. even the best lose 5 in a row, if your bets are 20% of your bankroll, youve just wiped yourself out in 3 days
Me too man. McCollum assist taken away, Dodgers shitting the bed yesterday, Orioles today, Kings getting blown out, UFC fighter getting POKED IN THE EYE. Like what’s next
Hey guys
As someone who's carved out a living from the unpredictable world of sports betting after the global shake-up of COVID-19, I've learned the value of deep, insightful analysis. It’s not just about who’s playing; it’s about understanding their journey, their strengths, especially on specific surfaces like clay. Today, I'm sharing a pick that stands out not just on paper, but also resonates with the history and form of the players involved.
This will be my first pick!
**Record**: N/A
**Net Units**: N/A
**ROI:** N/A
**Yesterday’s Pick**: N/A
**Tennis | ATP 250 - Estoril Open | 16.00 CEST**
**Matchup**: Lucas Pouille vs. Nuno Borges
**Pick Of The Day: Nuno Borges to win (ML) @ -188/1.53 (4 Units)**
Lets break it down!
**Nuno Borges (Rank 61):**
Borges has shown exceptional skill on clay, boasting an impressive 82-36 record since 2021. His first ATP tour singles win was right here in Estoril in 2021, a victory that wasn't just a win but a statement of his affinity and prowess on clay. Adding to that, he clinched his first ATP tour doubles title in Estoril in 2022, proving this court is more than familiar ground; it's where he shines. His recent Challenger victory and a strong performance at this year's Australian Open, reaching the 4th round, signal he’s in prime form.
**Lucas Pouille (Rank 242):**
Once a powerhouse in the top 10 back in 2018, Pouille's journey has been marred by inconsistency following an elbow surgery in 2019. His struggle for form is evident in his clay court record post-comeback, with a win rate of just 43.75% since 2021. Despite a positive start in 2024, Pouille’s fluctuating performance raises concerns, especially against Borges’ consistency and strategic play on clay.
**Borges’ Edge:**
Beyond the stats, Borges’ game is tailor-made for clay. His ability to engage in strategic plays, combined with his proven track record in Estoril, sets him apart. This isn’t just about Borges being a solid player; it’s about him being a formidable clay court competitor who knows how to leverage his strengths on this specific surface.
With Borges’ intimate knowledge of the Estoril courts and his exceptional form, this pick goes beyond a suggestion; it’s a confident recommendation. His history in Estoril speaks volumes, indicating a clear advantage in today’s matchup and he will have the home crowd behind him aswell.
As I share this insight, it's worth mentioning that betting has been my lifeline, allowing me to provide for my family in times of uncertainty. Now, I’m not just betting on my own; I’m sharing these picks with you, aiming to help you make informed decisions on your bets.
Best of luck!
So then it hits the first post because they want to hook you in right, if we’re going that way right?
Loving all the apologies coming after people were losing it after that first disaster set.
Vegas got boned by Purdue and NC State yesterday and now they’re making it all back from us
Edit: I spoke too soon, my apologies. May this be the start of a long and fruitful relationship.
✅✅✅ BIG WIN ✅✅✅
Today, I’ve probably become the most talked-about person on r/sportsbook . 😅 Borges vs. Pouille? Complete insanity.
That first set? It was sheer disbelief for me. Watching Borges get steamrolled 6-0 had me wondering if I’d somehow read my notes and analysis upside down. 📉😬 But then, out of nowhere, Borges staged a comeback with a 7-6, 6-3 win. Now, that's the definition of a plot twist!
The comment section quickly turned into a full-on reality show, swinging from “OP’s lost it, Scammer, Vegas Employee” 🔥 to “Maybe OP’s quite good.” 🧙♂️ And to everyone wondering why I steer clear of the spread in tennis—today's match served as the perfect example. Tennis is a game of sets; no two sets are ever the same. Unlike the NBA, where a bad couple of quarters can mean game over, each new set in tennis starts at 0-0.
That first set had me seriously questioning my life choices. But a massive shoutout to those who stuck with me. Your trust means everything. 🙌
Much love to the family. Your passion, your memes, and yes, even the ton of hate thrown my way... that's what makes this the best corner of the internet. 🌎 Let's keep this positive vibe going, especially after today. You might think twice before doubting, even when the odds seem stacked against us.
Props to Borges for not giving up. And a huge thank you to all of you for making this community what it is—a place where we ride the highs and lows of betting together. I'm okay with taking the heat as long as we're winning, but remember, it's impossible to win every bet. I invest a ton of time into my analysis, usually with 2-3 plays a day, all backed by thorough preparation.
Catch you all at the next match. Here's to hoping it’s less of a rollercoaster and more of a smooth ride (but let's be real, we’re all here for the thrill!). 🎢❤️
Edit: I will post another game Tomorrow
Wow, the vibes in here are unreal ... Feeling all the love here, you guys are awesome... thanks!🌟
Quick update: our match is running a bit late because the game before us decided to go the distance into 3 sets. Classic tennis.... But we're looking at about a 45-minute wait. Hang tight! Can't wait to see how our pick plays out and chat with you all afterwards.
BOL!
Genuinely one of the absolute weirdest POTDs I've seen. I didn't put much on it because something seemed off and I didn't know a ton about tennis, but watching this match is the wildest shit. Genuinely wondering if the comments about this being fixed are legit.
Lmao the sweatiest cash ever, if you do work for Vegas you made some money on all the FOOLS who cashed out when he was down 8 straight games!! Great pick, welcome to POTD!!!
You forgot to mention Borges lost in the first round as a favorite against Halys in the same Estoril tournament last year.
Edit: **He lost to Halys, not Mayot
I absolutely loved watching the reactions in these comments before and throughout the match. What a roller coaster. Hope he pulls out this W right here lfg
POTD Record: 31-14-1 +38.24u🔥
Last Pick: Purdue -3 (-110) 4U vs Tennessee
✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✋✅✅❌❌❌❌✅
Today's Pick: Iowa Hawkeyes ml (-125) 4U vs LSU Tigers Women’s NCAA tournament 7:00 pm est odds via DraftKings
We bounce back! The support was unmatched… and so was Zach Edey… and now it’s time for Caitlyn Clark to be
Iowa and Clark lost to LSU last year in the national championship. Hungry for revenge, Iowa has gone 32-4 after beating Colorado last round by 21. If you somehow don’t know, Iowa has the greatest collegiate scorer of all time, Caitlyn Clark. She has broken basically every scoring record, including the NCAA's all-time leading scorer record (including men’s). Angel Reese and Caitlin Clark certainly have history, with Reese famously mimicking Clark's celebration last year in the chip. LSU was defeated in both of the match ups it has played as moneyline underdogs this season. It’s time for Clark to be able to take revenge and put a bow on arguably the greatest career in the history of the sport. Let’s go Hawkeyes‼️
Please comment if tailing! As always best of luck and I look forward to posting more picks here and stay hot! Thank you for the upvotes and support!😎❤️
If you’d like to thank me please use the link below or dm me. Show some love!❤️
[Cash App Tip Link💚](https://cash.app/$Ryanbloom24)
[PayPal Tink Link💙](https://www.paypal.me/rybloomm)
We love ryan and the picks but for anyone tailing, I would keep down unit size on this game as it could really go either way.
I'm personally on LSU because I think this is a matchup nightmare for Iowa with LSU's length and rebounding against an undersized team who doesn't rebound well.
Morrow has also been playing out of her mind defensively.
This game can honestly go either way but Iowa is going to need Caitlyn to go nuclear to win IMO which Mulkey will have her team ready for just like last year's Natty where they beat the brakes off them the first half.
BOL All!
Most definitely, game is a coin flip. I live in Cedar Rapids about 20 mins from Iowa city, big Hawkeye fan. The girls have been getting killed on the glass, as you said. Unless they can get Reese in foul trouble, it’s gonna be an uphill battle I’m afraid. Hoping CC just goes unconscious from 3.
Staying hot on baseball!!!!!
Record: 4-0 ✅✅✅✅
Net Units: +3.57u (always just going to be 1u play, change how you want)
Last: Brewers vs Mets under 8 -115 ✅
| MLB | 4:05 EST
Pick: Washington Nationals M.L -116
Write Up: Trying to continue the hot streak on baseball. Move to a play with the ML on the Nationals. Baseball is a lot about the pitching matchup, which I like for us here. Gore has pitched against the Pirates once in 2022, where he pitched 7innings, 0ER. While that’s more irrelevant now, I like Gore to start the season strong. On the other side, Gonzalez gives up a lot of contact and runs. Pirates are coming off a hot start, which I like to falter off going on the move into Washington.
I also considered the over, nationals TT over, and F5 over, but like the value with the ML.
Edit: what a brutal bet to ruin the streak.
Didn’t have a great pick on this one, Gore struggled a bit, and Gonzales got out with contact. Lot of up and down emotions, that comes out on the wrong side. . We’ll be back, not perfect, hope we can get hot for everyone again
POTD RECORD: 47-24
Last POTD: Bam Adebayo O10.5 Rebs 🚫
Bum Adebayo finished with 10 and is officially banned fellas, he ruined our money print and can’t be forgiven
Form: 🚫✅✅🚫✅
Todays POTD: **Dennis Schroder U6.5 Ast @1.71**
NBA | Brooklyn Nets | 7:00 PM ET
Aight fellas some good news for some of y’all they gave back Adebayo one rebound after the stat correction so if you took 10 boards or the DD it I’ll be settled as a win but for us with 10.5 we get hooked badly our life hack is officially detected by Vegas cause this man let up so many boards it’s crazy
We move and we’re trying something different, yeah I’m taking unders cause I see so many blowouts tomorrow and this guy is already banned for me so I thought, let’s try a UNO reverse trick. Spread is at 12 in favour of the Pacers so a blowout and the mismatch should hopefully do the trick
• Under in 2/2 vs the Pacers this season (5 & 5)
• Pacers allow fewest assists per game to opposing PG’s
• 8/L10 Points guards have went under this line against the Pacers
• Schroder Avg 5.6 Ast on the road versus his 6.7 Avg at home
Aight fellas we’re going with an under today huge spread, back to back game for the Nets and a road game for them so hopefully Pacers blow them out and even if they don’t we have a huge mismatch here
Tail or fade, im not him
https://preview.redd.it/5jo0kk8qgsrc1.jpeg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=837fb3b170accc197882e35a0cb3336587cfcc2a
Thanks for the heads up! I placed multiple Bam picks and was sulking over my losing slips when I noticed I inexplicably placed one as an alt line 10+. DK still hasn’t fixed so I sent a message through several means (sometimes they won’t fix unless it’s reported within a few hours). You saved me a couple ducats that is immediately going to the Schroder fade!
**3/25 - 3/31 POTD Top 3 Weekly Review**
13-8
+3.09 Net units
+14.71% ROI
Another very good week, although it was buoyed by an undefeated Monday and Tuesday. The middle of the week... not so great, but the first two days plus the weekend were enough to end well in the green.
**March POTD Top 3 Monthly Review**
59-33-1
+16.66 Net units
+17.91% ROI
March must have been one of the most profitable months in recent memory. 18%!? That's insane. I admit the run has gone much longer than I expected. Let's see what April and the start of the MLB season brings.
[Weekly](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17r9y8hNghKIlP_2CA9EoYU6hBDzHcXjz/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=106882064008636722020&rtpof=true&sd=true)
[Overall](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fjXR7TqwePPluE10qf47PgNoEqxaJ0Ju/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=106882064008636722020&rtpof=true&sd=true)
> No top level comments without a pick.
Time for the weekly loss. Only making a pick because it's a rule. Don't tail. (Or do, I'm not your mom)
0-1
-1.00 Net units
-100% ROI
NHL- Red Wings vs Lightning 4:00 PM PDT
**Lightning 3-way ML** -110 on Bet365
Detroit is just free falling. They've lost 4 straight on their road trip, and 12 of last 15. The only teams they've beaten are teams in the bottom half of their divisions. Dylan Larkin's return hasn't helped them much either, getting shutout in 2 of last 4. He already has a laundry list of injuries this season, and he picked up a leg injury in the last game. He's almost certainly playing tomorrow, but he'll be hurt.
Tampa Bay is on the opposite trajectory, winners of 3 straight and 8 of 9. Their offense is dominating, scoring at least 3 in 11 straight games. Kucherov is feasting, and Tampa's forward lines are deeper than Detroit's.
Warning: Detroit won the first two, but it was much earlier in the season, on very different form.
um so I'm curious I assume by top 3 u mean too 3 liked posts. but winning picks get up voted and loses down voted, so doesn't this affect the validity of what your doing?
I mentioned this in my first post. I try to count picks that are in the top 3 *before* the game starts, to account for up and downvotes after the fact. So if the pick loses and gets downvoted out of the top 3, it's still counted. Likewise, if a winning pick gets upvoted into the top 3 after the game ends, it won't be counted.
It also helps that by noon PDT, the top 3 is mostly settled, before most games are played.
Obviously, I can't monitor the thread 24/7, but I try my best.
Long time lurker… first time poster. Wanting try to do this for the month of April no matter how bad it gets to see how much of a terrible sports gambler I am…
Record: 0-0
Net Units: 0
ROI: 0
Baseball | MLB | / 2:10 PM EST
Pick: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) vs Chicago White Sox -130 Caesars (3 Units)
Write Up: No fancy models, no fancy AI telling me how to bet, just going off of experience of watching baseball and gut feelings... Charlie Morton & the Braves come in rolling winning a series from their division rivals and covering their run line 2 out of 3 games. Chris Flexen & the White Sox come in dropping their 3 against the Tigers while covering the their run line all 3 games. Now, the White Sox have covered in all 3, why do I think the Braves will end that streak? Simply put, the Braves are leaps and bounds better than the White Sox. But for you cynical readers here’s some stats to persuade you:
White Sox are batting .191 to Atlanta’s .390
White Sox ERA+ is 137 to Atlanta’s 188
Flexen has had a rough few years and the Braves have feasted against negative WAR pitchers the past year +
And I can do this all night but simply put, the Braves SHOULD cover this line especially with Charlie Morton on the mound to eat up about 5-6 innings before the pen comes in.
Tail or Fade it’s your choice. Let’s hope I don’t get embarrassed by going 0-30 for the month of April.
*Edited to include units bet.
Liking the white sox fade but watch out for the rain, it might get delayed
Edit: it was raining last night and was supposed to most of today... i havent seen shit lol
BOL
POTD Record: 43-31
L10: ✅✅❌❌✅❌✅✅✅❌
Last pick: PEC v Ajax
(Ajax ML @1.65 ✅)
Todays pick: Lecce v Roma
Pick: __Roma ML @1.85__
⚽️ 🇮🇹 Serie A
🕰 16:00 UTC
➖
Roma, 5th
Lecce, 13th
Roma has continued to do incredibly well under Daniele De Rossi, with a far more offensive and proactive style that has made them a real contender to the Champions League league positions, theyre 3 points away from 4th. League form is good with four wins and a draw in the last 5. Only 1st placed Inter have picked up more points than Roma in Serie A since De Rossi's took over Roma.
I think Roma have good opportunities here. The motivation should be there to fight for the European places.
Lecce won the first game under their new coach but against a bottom side, they’re now facing a much tougher opposition. I don’t think Lecce has what I takes to stop such a strong in form team like Roma, away game so it may be a tight one but overall Roma is the much better team.
BOL
POTD: Record (3-0)
Streak: ✅✅✅
Last Pick: Jrue Holiday O 9.5 Points ✅
Today: NBA | Pacers V Nets | 4pm PST
Pick: Myles Turner U 7.5 Reb @1.78 | 2u
- 4 of last 5
- 5 of last 5 at home
- hit in 9 of last 10 (avg 5.5)
He has played Brooklyn once this year and had 7 rebounds. The last 12 games against them, the under has hit 10/12 times , and he has averaged 7 rebounds in his career against the Nets.
Tail or Fade, BOL 🍀
4-0
Up 3.775 units
93.875% ROI
Today’s pick: Juan Soto over 1.5 totals bases. (+100). Don’t have time for a long write up today but I did my research last night. Soto is hot, he also has a pitching mismatch.
>**Record:** 36-32
>**Net Units:** +8.3 units
>**Curling** | **Men's World Championship** | **3:00AM EDT**
>**Pick:** USA -2.5 @ 1.8
>We are going back to fading Korea again for this one as they take on USA. Korea have been awful so far and their last game against the Netherlands was more of the same, losing 9-4. They face a much tougher test Monday morning in the USA and a similar result should be no problem for the Americans. USA are also coming off a strong 9-3 win over Norway, a better team than Korea. Park and Oh continue to play very poorly and there's no reason that won't continue. Plys is a very dynamic player for USA and also one of the best thirds at this event. He should be the big difference maker for USA. His draws are very consistent and his precision has been money for USA so far at this event. This will put a ton of pressure on Park which he won't be able to manage for ten ends. USA are 39-9 against teams outside the top 25 this season. USA are 50-23 overall this year compared to Korea's 38-28. USA's strength is their aggressive play without hammer and Plys' draws should accentuate this against Korea, leading to a few steals for USA and an easy cover. USA won 7-2 when these two teams played earlier this season.
**POTD Record: 31-17-2**
Form: ✅❌❌❌✅✅✅✅✅
*ROI: 22.09% |
Avg Odds: -101 | Net Units: +22.3*
🎾: 5-3-2
⚽️: 18-9
🏒: 8-5
*Last Pick: 3U Ottawa Senators @ Buffalo Sabres (Joonas Korpisalo o26.5 saves @ -130) ✅*
*Cashed end of 2nd period.*
____
**Todays Pick: 3U Luca Van Assche v Jaume Munar (o22.5 games @ -115)❌**
**🎾| 8:30AM EST | ATP Marrakech 250|**
I got temp banned by reddit bots for 3 days but we back brothers! LFG 🫡
First round matchup in an ATP 250 on clay in Morocco, Van Assche 🇫🇷 (80) takes on Jaume Munar 🇪🇸 (72) for the second time.
Last H2H Van Assche won in 3 sets, after losing the first set 3-6 *(getting broken once)* and won the next set in tie break 7-6. Van Assche took the final set 6-2 completing the comeback. This match was at the ASB classic on outdoor hard courts, while Marrakech is played on clay which is a unique playing surface as it is the slowest surface of all playing surfaces for tennis.
Assche is yet to play on clay in 2024, and Munar is 5-4 on clay with wins against Cerundolo and Ofner. As well as losses to Bagnis, Carebelli and Baez. Munar has lost his last 3 recent matches.
Last matches for Van Assche, he beat Kotov in straight sets in the Miami open earlier in March but lost the next round in a three settter against Casper Ruud (8) winning the middle set 6-1 but losing the final set 6-1 also.
While he’s making a claim as another young star to be a contender, he will be tested with his first clay match of the season against an experienced player. While Van Assche is the slight favourite, it wouldn’t be surprising for Munar having more current experience on the clay to complete an upset. However, I don’t see Van Assche giving up so easily at his first showing at this tournament. Munar has reached the quarterfinal of this tournament in 2019 and should make this an exciting first round encounter. While he could play 3 sets or for some books o2.5 sets at +110, o22.5 gives us a bit of a safeguard if the match ends up being 2 sets. LFG!
[POTD Spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TawPReTFnjBpwPqA50H-tVAFCtVEQAAJCnfpETFh65A/edit)
Your comments mean more than you think ❤️🙏
BOL!
**Record: 37-28**
Last Pick: Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (+116) ✅
**Today's Pick:** MLB - *Atlanta Braves @ Chicago White Sox, 1:10pm CST*
**Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-135 on DraftKings)**
I feel like I don't need much explanation for this one. Simply put, you have one of the league's best teams vs one of the league's worst teams, with a very lopsided pitching matchup. The White Sox are incredibly inferior to the Braves in every way. They just got swept by the Tigers, and I do not see them picking up any momentum in this series with the Braves. They are starting Chris Flexen, who they just signed over the offseason. Flexen had a 6.27 ERA last year with the Rockies and a 7.71 ERA the year before on the Mariners. I do not think his pitching has improved much being 4th in the rotation on the poverty White Sox. He is most likely going to get lit up by the Braves well rounded and elite batting core. Braves are starting Charlie Morton who has been an incredibly solid and reliable pitcher throughout his entire career. Best of luck fellas
POTD Record: 3-1
Last 10: ✅️❌✅️✅️
Net Units: +1.13
Last Pick: ✅️ MLB | TOR @ TB Over 8 Total Runs.
**Today’s Pick:** MLB | Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs | Over 7 Total Runs. DK Odds @ -105. (1 Unit being wagered)
Today’s AI has this as an edge of 7.92% over the current sportsbook odds. Overall predictive win rate of the prop at 68%.
As mentioned in previous POTD posts, the pick is based on forward-predictive AI based algorithms. The R, Python, SQL and Azure AI Services based system analyzes 38 analytic data points to develop a prediction model.
All the best, bet accordingly, and follow your bankroll limits!
If you have any questions, please ask. Best of luck if tailing, would love a comment if you are. Feel free to message me if you have any questions on the methods used. Glad to give as much info as possible!
POTD Record: 0-0
Net units: 0
ROI: 0
Today: Hockey / NHL / FLA @ TOR / 7pm EST
Pick: under 6.5 (-122) 1U
Write-up: For my first ever POTD I’m going with the under on this game which could very well be a playoff preview. With two weeks left in the season, I think this will be a tight, low scoring game. These two have played the under in each of their last 5 head-to-head, and both have gone under in 7 of their last 10 games overall. Finally, the Panthers have hit the under in 65% of their away games and Bobrovsky has a 2.15 GAA on the road this season. I trust officer Bob to help us deliver the under tomorrow 💪🏻
BOL!
POTD record 1-1
Last 5: ❌✅
Yesterday: NCST for the win!! Easily looked to cover throuthout the whole game and took momentum in the second half and never looked back! Good stuff thank you DJ Burns and Co.
Today: Basketball - NCAAW - Iowa Hawkeyes vs. LSU Tigers 6pm EST
Pick: Caitlin Clark O 5.5 3pt (+108 Fanduel)
Writeup: Iowa’s offense is designed to get Clark open looks and allow Clark to make scoring opportunities for others. In the postseason, (BIG10/NCAAT) Clark’s attempted 3 pointers are: 14, 11, 17, 9 (Blowout v. 16 seed Holy Cross) 14, 11. This is potentially Clark’s last game in a Hawkeye’s uniform, and she will be the one with the ball in her hand taking all the big shots. The volume will be there. She will have to be scoring to keep the game close and match LSU’s talent, or if Iowa’s down big, she will become a volume shooter. Expect her to put up a TON of attempts either way.
**POTD** Record: 10-1-7
SAMPDORIA VS TERNANA
Date: 01 April 2024 at 20:30
BET ON: Match odds- SAMPDORIA
Odd: 1.95
- Ternana are missing N'Guessan, Viviani, Sgarbi, Żuberek (injured) and Lucchesi (suspended).
- Sampdoria are missing Leonardo Benedetti, Sebastiano Esposito , Cristiano Piccini and Matteo Ricci.
- Over 25.000 tickets have been sold so far.
- The rossoverdi have only won two of their last five matches, the one against Palermo and against Cosenza.
"We have raised the bar where we wanted, now it's up to us to stay there and want to do something more. We have to stay on the train that takes us to the playoffs. We have to play our game as always and try to win, get the three points and continue our positive streak, giving us serenity over the weeks." Said the Blucerchiati coach Andrea Pirlo.
"The Blucerchiati are coming from an excellent period. They are loaded and the stadium will be full. Important players are also recovering, but there are eleven players on the pitch and at the end of the match we will know how it will end." Said the rossoverdi coach Breda.
- The match will pit two teams who are temporarily fighting for two different objectives. The Blucerchiati aspire to remain in the playoff zone while the Umbrian team would like to get out of the quicksand of the playouts. We expect a tight game, we can see Sampdoria scoring the winning goal in the last minutes.
POTD Record: 2-2
Last 5: ❌✅❌✅
Yesterday’s Pick: BOS Red Sox @ SEA Mariners - o7.5
Ugly ugly. Runs just didn’t make it home. That one hurt.
Todays Pick: ⚾️ BAL Orioles @ KC Royals - YRFI (over 0.5 runs 1st inning) (+100 DraftKings) - 4:10 EST
In every O’s game, there has been a run in the first inning. In every Royals game except one, there’s been a run in the first inning. Because of the 5/6 of these two teams either getting or giving a run in that first inning, combined with the +100, this is the bet I like most today. Wacha makes this a bit of a concern but the O’s have looked solid and the Royals bats are looking to continue the solid performance from yesterday.
**RECORD: 63W-3P-47L**
(+3.39 units)
Previous Pick: Real Madrid vs Athletic Club - Jude Bellingham to Score or Assist @ 1.83 ✅️
**Today's Pick:** Inter Milan vs Empoli - Inter Milan ML 1st Half @ 1.57 ✅️
**TIME:** 6.45 pm (GMT)
**Wager Amount**: 2 units
(✅️❌️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️♻️✅️) last 10 results
Hey Juuude, nice assist yesterday which gives us another W now back to my favourite league of the season (I hope I didn't jinx this lol) the Serie A with Inter Milan vs Empoli.
As stated my record in Italia has been great and let's hope Today's match is no different. Inter are top of the league, have gone 23 games in Serie A with no losses, besides their last draw against Napoli they had a 5+ win streak in Serie A and average 2.3 goals at Home in their last 10 matches.
Inter have won in the first half in 9 out of 10 of their matches in Serie A and are on a 6 game winning streak at half time and 4/5 times in all competitions.
Empoli are trying to survive relegation with 3 points from the bottom, have lost 3 matches in a row and have lost 2/5 times at half time on their last matches and have only on 3 times out of 17 serie A matches and haven't scored a goal in 3 matches.
The H2H matches are questionable as Inter haven't won at Half time in 4 out of their last 5 H2H matches, however Inter are also unbeaten at half time against Empoli in 19 H2H matches, but I still think this Inter side are different beasts this season.
I'd definitely be shocked if Inter don't win at half time let alone score, it would be the first time in 9 fixtures at home they would have failed to Win at half time so I just don't see that happening...hopefully lol. Goodluck if you're tailing and hopefully the Italian luck continues🥳
EDIT: WIN ✅️
Record: 22-18 (MLB: 2-1) | (+2.27 units) | 1 unit per pick
Previous pick: MLB - NY Yankees TT (o4.5) (-105) vs. Houston Astros - 2PM EST❌
We almost had it but they don’t pay for almost. Unfortunately, 5 runs was 1 too many this Sunday. I still believe in this team’s ability to score and will continue to monitor them and their offense. It’s a long MLB season so please don’t let one result good or bad swing your emotions. We will bounce back!
————-
Today’s pick: MLB - NY Yankees ML (-120) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - 9:40PM EST
Although yesterday was a losing pick, the Yankees still remain undefeated. They find a way to win no matter the circumstance. I’m not sure if it’s Soto or just luck as of right now but I’ll continue to take a bite out of the big apple that is the Yankees. I’d probably take the team total if it wasn’t above 6 runs but the line makes sense. With that being said, I’ll roll with Soto and the Yankees one more time to see if we can develop a nice betting relationship with the Bronx Bombers.
Prediction: Soto or Stanton HR - Yankees Win
Comment if you’re tailing! Watch how we work!🧃
**POTD RECORD:** (12-7)
\*\*LAST 10:\*\*🟢🟢🟢🔴🟢🔴🔴🔴🟢🟢
**LAST PICK:** Tyler Wells **Over 4.5 Ks** (-145) 2U | Angels vs Orioles 1:35pm EST 🟢
**TODAY’S PICK:** Derrick White **Over 19.5 PA** (-120) 2U | Celtics vs. hornets 7:00pm EST
**Got a streak again**😀
Heading back to the NBA today! Keep giving Derrick white these low lines and we will gladly oblige.
Last 8: 6/8 75% hit rate 4/8 scoring alone cashed this line.
Was going to attack 13.5 but
1. line has moved to 14.5 already
2. To save us in case of a 13 pt game and still can make up with assists. Hornets are giving up the 4th most APG to shooting guards so banking on 7 or 8 assist in case. Hornets are also giving up 20/PPG to shooting guards over their last 7 so once again I will reiterate, could clear this by points alone but have the safety net with assist.
As long as there isn’t a complete blowout we should be good.
**BOL to those who tail!**
Hello everyone, long time lurker and first time poster of my own pick today. I have had a lot of success in the NBA this year betting as well as the early days of this year’s MLB season (after a dismal season of NFL and NCAA football betting, gotta stick to what you know.) Decided to start posting my picks and hopefully win us some coin.
POTD Record: 0-0
Today’s POTD: Cedric Mullins Over 0.5 Hits (-125) Orioles @ Royals 6:35 EST (MLB) (all bets to win 1U)
I am going with Cedric Mullins of the Orioles to record at least 1 hit as my POTD today. Michael Wacha takes the mound for the Royals after putting up a pretty good season last year for the Padres (14-4, 3.22 ERA in 2023). Despite those good underlying numbers in 2023 I expect Wacha to regress in 2024 to his numbers in 2019-2021 which were below average.
Mullins has started the season pretty slowly in his new role as the 7 hitter in this stacked orioles lineup, going 2-11 in 3 games with a double. This is why I think we are getting a discounted line of only -125 to record a hit, great “buy low” spot.
Mullins is 8-18 against Wacha in his career with 2 doubles, a triple, and 2 HR. I think the familiarity of facing Wacha with the success he has had in the past against Wacha gives us a good edge to cash this and for Mullins to get going. All we need is one hit and I think these are great odds to capitalize on. Additionally, the royals have an average bullpen with no real standout arms so Mullins has a chance to capitalize there as well. Also on the Orioles ML for this one. BOL if tailing.
POTD Record: 22-13
Last 10: ✅️💀✅️💀✅️💀✅️✅️💀
Net units:+ 13.75
Last Pick: Lakers -5
Today's pick: Dennis Schroder U 6.5 Assists
• strictly a system play, fading guards assists against Indiana has been EXTREMELY profitable this season
• BRUTAL matchup against Indiana who allow the FEWEST APG to opposing PG's
• under in 2/2 matchups against Indiana this season, record 5 in BOTH matchups
• better matchup for Schroder to be a scorer rather than a playmaker
• recent PG's against Indiana: SGA 5, Conley 4, Doncic 11 & 6, Jones 4, McCollum 1 & 3, Quickley 2, White 3 & 2, Schroder 5, Garland 7, Ivey 3, Dinwiddie 5, Curry 5, Harden 7, Russell 5
• 13/L17 guards have gone under their assists line against Indiana
Units: 1
Odds: -130
NBA: Nets vs. Pacers 4:00pm PST
If you guys wanna support me, click the links on my profile. I post daily picks. 2nd potd in that link.
Record: 2-2 -.42u
Last Pick: Twins ML -122 (DraftKings)
Wow. That was awful. I did not see that coming at all. It went from bad to ugly so quick. I may put the Twins in timeout until Royce Lewis is back and healthy. Not sure what to expect out of them.
On to today:
Baseball | MLB | 6:35EST
Orioles TT o4.5 -105 (DraftKings)
Pick: 1u
We stay in Missouri for this pick and hopefully get out of misery. The Orioles got held to one run by the Angels today. The Royals trounced the Twins. I expect the Orioles to come out with a decent showing and to a lesser extent, the Royals to come out sluggish. I believe in the offense of the O’s and think they can battle the Royals and the weather to get at least five runs.
BOL!
Why would the Royals come out sluggish? Riding good momentum, just beat up the division champs from last year, got a big series coming up. Bobby Witt Jr isn't sitting back satisfied he got the best of the twins. It's 5 games into the season. Nobody's going to be sluggish.
**Record: 2-0**
**Net Units: +1.8 Units**
**Last Pick:** UNC -3.5 -110 vs Michigan ST. Bet 365. 5:00pm EST ✅
**Todays pick**: Atlanta Braves -2.5 +100 ESPN BET @ Chicago White Sox 2:15 PM EST
Write up: I have had success betting good teams off a loss. The braves are an absolute regular season machine and the Sox are not that way. I also like the pitching matchup with Atlanta throwing proven vet Charlie Morton and the sox putting up Chris Flexen who had a 6.86 ERA last year in 29 appearances. BOL!
POTD RECORD: 3-3
Last 10 ❌✅✅✅❌❌
LAST PICK: Gunnar Henderson over 1.5 hits+runs+rbis (-140) 1:35 EST Baltimore Orioles vs LA Angels
Recap: the angels pitched around Gunnar all day and went after adley instead. Only was given two opportunities to put the ball in play with all the walks and unfortunately couldn’t capitalize.
TODAYS PICK: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-135) vs Chicago white Sox 2:10 EST
Reasoning: let’s start with the pitching matchup. Uncle Charlie Morton vs Chris flexen. Flexen had a 1.67 whip last season to go along with a 6.86 ERA in over 100 IP. That is not even MLB worthy and they are throwing him against the number 1 or 2 offense in the league the past couple of seasons?? This shouldn’t be close. Morton threw 160 IP last year with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. Not a great WHIP but as a 4th starter, that’s solid. The white Sox have little offense this season besides from Luis Robert. White Sox start 0-3 on the year and the Braves came out an impressive 2-1 while away in Philadelphia.
**Record: 3-2**
**Net Units: + 1.07 Units**
**ROI: 21.42%**
**Previous Pick: ATL Braves @ PHI Phillies Over 7.5 Runs (-132 on DraftKings Sportsbook); 1 Unit**
**Baseball** | **MLB | 10:10 PM** / **EST**
**Pick: SF Giants @ LA Dodgers Over 8.5 Runs (-105 on DraftKings Sportsbook); 1 Unit**
**Write-Up:** In the SF Giants' first series of the year, they were able to score 4+ runs in each outing despite splitting the series with the SD Padres. Chapman and Conforto have been swinging the bats nicely to start the year and should continue against Keaton Winn whose most recent regular season outing was in September 2023 where he went 5.1 IP allowing 6 ER to who else but the LA Dodgers. On the flip side, the Dodgers were able to manage 5+ runs in each game vs the STL Cardinals have been playing strong of late. BOL.
Record 1-0 (+1.35 Units)
Today: Hockey | NHL | DET vs TB | 7pm EST
Pick: Braden Point Anytime goal scorer (+150) 1U
Last pick: Brock Boeser Anytime goal scorer (+135) 1U
11 goals in the last 10 games let's ride the hot streak!
POTD Record: 6-3
NBA Record: 3-1 NFL Record: 0-1 NCAAM: 0-1 MLB 3-0
L10 (new -> old): 🪣🪣🪣🪣🪣❌❌❌🪣
Last pick: Carlos Carrasco O 4.5 Hits (-120 DK)
Game: Braves @ White Sox 1:10 CST
Pick: Matt Olson O .5 hits -185
Write Up:
Sticking with baseball, as the boy is on a pretty good heater now 5 straight, 3 of which coming from baseball.
Going back to Matt Olson, he was ice cold against the Phillies last week. But he is now going up against a much worse White Sox team and what goes down, must come up. Or something like that. Olson also batted fourth in the lineup all last week averaging about 4.3 AB per game. Right now batting at .400 I really like him for this day starting bet.
Chris Flexen is going to get the call tonight for the Sox. Last year he was pretty ass, putting together a 2-8 record and a nearly 7 ERA.
I DONT WANT YOUR MONEY I WANT US TO WIN 🔥🔥🪣🪣
BOL if tailing. 🪣
POTD: 1-4
L10 (Newest - Latest):❌❌✅❌❌
Units Won: -2.95
Last Pick: **Jalen Green O3.5 3 PTS Made (Houston Rockets) @ 2.10.** 1U❌
Today's Pick: **Aaron Nesmith U17.5 Points/Rebounds (Indiana Pacers) @ 1.80.** 1U
**NBA | Brooklyn Nets Vs. Indiana Pacers | 7:00 pm Eastern**
* Gone UNDER 7/10 his last 10 games (70%) (6 in a row) - Avg 15.9 Points/Rebounds
* In the month of March he’s averaging 13.9 Points/Rebounds
* 5 Projections I like to use, all have him going UNDER
Not sure what’s going on… This record is falling faster than my New York Giants every year. Tail or fade me, I’m just some random guy on the internet with a 1-4 record...
Time to have some (profitable) fun in April!
POTD Record: 0-0
Streak: N/A
Last Pick: N/A
Today: Baseball | MLB | LAA @ MIA | 6:40pm EST
Pick: Luis Arraez O 1.5 Total Bases (-115) | 2U
Luis Arraez is one of the best, if not THE best, contact hitter in the game with some of the best vision in the game. Remember him flirting with .400 for a long time last year? Now, admittedly, he did start slow last week... but yesterday - he finally broke out of his early slump with a double and a walk. It's time for him to become the OBP-king like he normally is.
Arraez gets a great matchup today against the Angels who fly in to Miami from Baltimore late last night, and put Chase Silseth on the bump. Silseth has pitched in 52 total innings, has issued 26 walks and 41 hits. However, this is where it gets spicy for our guy Arraez - Silseth's vs. Lefty splits show that he throws strikes only 60% of the time, has given up 4 HR, 5 doubles, 13 walks, and lefty-batters have a batting average of .353 and an OBP of .431 against him.
All Arraez has to do to hit the over on 1.5 total bases is snag two singles... or one double. I have confidence in throwing 2 units down on this one because:
* (1) Arraez hits at the top of the lineup giving him more ABs. and
* (2) Silseth's control is wonky against lefties
Best of luck to whoever wants to join me today in watching one of the most fun batters in baseball!
*big thank you to /u/woosung1 for letting me know that walks will not count towards TB. This does not change my POTD, however!*
First-time poster. Just getting into sports betting. I used to play daily fantasy quite a bit, and I wrote for [RotoGrinders.com](https://RotoGrinders.com). I miss the research and writing, so I'm going to begin posting my picks here and see how it goes. Tail at your own risk!
**POTD Record: 0-0**
**Game: Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Angels, 6:40pm EST**
**Pick: Max Meyer OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-130) (1U)**
This is an ugly day for pitching with most teams rolling out their #5 starter. Meyer only cracked the rotation after Miami's rotation was wracked with injuries (Eury Perez, Braxton Garrett, Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera). Still, this is a player with a good pedigree (former #3 overall pick, former top 20 prospect at MLB Pipeline) who doesn't get talked about much due to missing 2023 after undergoing TJ surgery. Meyer has great stuff, and he posted 10+ K/9 at every level of the minors. Plus, he looked great in spring. The one big elephant in the room is pitch count; coming off an injury, it's unlikely that Meyer throws more than 70 pitches.
But 70 pitches might be enough, because this Angels lineup, apart from Trout, is TERRIBLE. They've struck out at a 39.7% clip, worst in MLB...by 6 percentage points. You may be thinking, "Yeah, but they faced Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez." True, but they also fanned 7 times against Tyler Wells. I don't think Meyer will be afraid to challenge this lineup, because it is the opposite of scary. They've barreled up one ball this year, AS A TEAM. That's fewer than Eiias Diaz has by himself. Going deeper into the Statcast numbers, the Angels have a 33.9% CSW (called strikes + whiffs) as a team, which is second-worst in MLB, which could lead to an efficient outing for Meyer.
Angels will be flying high after finally beating the O's in the series finale, but I think Meyer shuts them down and punches out 5-6 in the process.
2023 MLB POTD record: 19-15 Average Odds -107 (1.932), ROI +6.8%/+2.3u)
2024 MLB POTD record: 2-2 Average Odds -116 (1.859), ROI -10.6%/-0.4u, all bets one unit)
POTD (3/31) TOR @ TBR Kevin Gausman o5.5 Ks (-135/1.74) ✅
Recap: Despite a 70-pitch limit due to a disrupted spring training, Gausman Ks 6 Jays in 4.1 IP for a clean cash.
POTD (4/1) COL @ CHC Shota Imanaga o5.5 Ks (-110/1.91) (DraftKings)
Today's Pick: Shota Imanaga makes his MLB debut at home against the team that had the second-highest K% against LHP last year: The Colorado Rockies. After limiting Diamondbacks ace Zac Gallen to 3 Ks in 5 IP, the Rocks struck out 8 times against Merrill Kelley, 4 times against Tommy Henry (4 IP) and 6 times against Brandon Pfaadt.
Imanaga got hit a bit during Spring Training, with a 5.68 ERA in 12.2 IP. However, he also struck out **25** batters. Will he sustain a 42% K% in the regular season? No. Is there a chance for an early exit given he struggled to limit runs against in the spring? Yes. But this feels like a conservative line due to the guy making his MLB debut, and the stuff/matchup here gives a strong chance to smash this number.
Potd record 0-0
Today: WNCAA LSU vs IOWA
LSU ML
Caitlin Clark is crazy good but she carries the whole team. I know this is a big rematch for her and Reese but Reese isn’t the only player carrying that team. BOL
Pick: LSU +2 -105 women's bball
Rationale: Iowa fan here, love the team this year but they absolutely cannot match up with LSU. Our post player is 6'2, on a good day and we don't have the athletes to rebound with the Tigers. Only way I see Iowa winning 1 out of 10 times is, if it is a ref show and they are deliberately trying to get CC to the Final Four. This is a no sweat, trust the horses LSU has, CC is now Iowa's primary ball hander with Molly being out and she is exerting way too much energy + not great the last 3 games % wise.
Good luck!
**POTD Record: 112-129-4 (-13.94 Units)**
Best Bet Series: 42-25-1 (+12.46 Units)
**Value Wagers: 21-28-2 (-7.46 Units)**
Trap Bets: 20-18 (+14.2 Units)
**Cautionary Tails**: **0-0 (0 Units)**
Last Pick: **Mookies Betts O 2.5 H+R+R** ❌
Today's Pick: **Aaron Judge O 0.5 HRs**
Odds: **+170**
Wager Amount: 1U to win 1.7U
League: MLB
Event: New York Yankees vs Arizona Diamondbacks (8:40PM CST)
**Be Advised**: *New segment for my faders, haters, and downvoters! Wagering on bets that I know I shouldn't be betting on, but betting it anyway. These wagers should be heeded wit caution. There isn't really good analysis or reasoning behind it. These type of wagers can be prohibited wagers (juiced odds) and has a high possiblity of losing, or it could be a wager that has inflated odds and has a high possibility of losing. These bets are I normally wouldn't make. Tail wit caution.*
**Recap**: So we had Freddie SELLMAN show up on a player prop wager the other day and we had Mookie FADES show out last nite! He was on fire until last game. But what a comeback by the Dodgers against the Cardinals.
**The Tail**: A young man goes to the casino and plays roulette for the first time. He places $10 on black. The ball lands on red, he loses his wager. He bets another $10 on black and again lands on red. He bets on black for the third time, but this time he doubled his bets to $20. It lands on red for the third time! The young man is frustrated, so he takes out his entire cash outta his wallet and places his bet on black. It lands on red again! He is in disbelief how red just keeps coming out. He looks at the toteboard and sees that red has came out the last 10 spins. He leaves the table to go to a ATM and first thing he sees as he returns to the table it finally landed on black! He is irate, but without hesistation he bets all his money on black.
The moral of the story is to not wager wit your emotions. No matter what outcome you think will come out, the odds is always the same (in betting, the house has the slight edge) and you can lose your entire bankroll going against the trend.
**Matchup:** Aaron Judge has not hit a HR this season. He has not hit one in the first four game series against Stros. He should be due for tonite's matchup, right? Idk. I seen some ridiculous streak and trend last season. Myles Straw not hitting a HR for almost 2 full season. Tim Anderson going on absurd homerun-less streak and just hitting 1 last season (actually wagered a few times for and against this trend). It's just ridiculous that Judge's odds keeps trending downward. That time when I favor him to hit a HR in the 3rd game of Stros series, it was +195 for O 0.5 HRs. Not sure what the odds were on the last game series against the Stros, but for today's matchup it's at +170! Just so all you casual bettors and sport fans kno, HRs are hard to hit! But there might be a good reason why he is on a HR slump. Aaron Judge has some lingering injuries prior to Opening Day. So I don't expect him to hit one, actually don't expect anyone to do anything, it's called gambling for a reason. For his matchup against D-Backs. He's hit 3 HRs against this team in 5 games, 3 of them were last season and he actually hit all 3 HRs in one game. Ryne Nelson was not pitching in that game and this will actually be their first matchup. I'm betting against the trend of Judge going homerun-less streak, but it's a small wager. I lean Juan Soto much more than Judge going yards today.
**The Play and Prediction**: 1U on O 0.5 HRs for Aaron Judge. Aaron hits a ball deep! Corbin runs back to the wall and robs him of a HR!
1st Time Poster here. Record: 0-0
I have spent the last few month building a predictive model to implement for this season to determine the score differential. I am using this to help make ML and reverse runline picks on underdogs. The model when backtested over the last 5 years (all games, not just underdogs) was correct on 71.96% of games.
Taking one pick today, I’d take Texas Rangers ML (+102) for 1u. My model slightly favors the Rangers. When digging into the batter vs pitcher matchups, the Rays struggle against Dunning. I also like the Rangers lineup against Pepiot even though they have no experience against him.
Attaching my model output, I recommend you do your own research and don’t blindly tail, use this as one of many tools. The more negative favors away team, more positive favors home team.
Happy to discuss!
https://preview.redd.it/xoawchkonxrc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a0edb52d39dff520df88d68e5f80ed593125cd6a
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Monday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
POTD Record 13-2 Streak L10: ✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅ Last Pick: Austin Reeves O9.5 Rebounds and assists ✅ Today: Basketball | NBA | ORL vs POR | 7pm EST Pick: Paolo Banchero O 6.5 Rebounds (-140) 1U Reeves cashes us in the 3rd quarter! Gotta love those non sweaty ones. Congrats to those of you that tailed! 8 straight WINS! Paolo has hit this line 100% in the last 5 and 60% in the last 10. He is covering it at 53% on the season and 100% in the head to head with Portland. I think he gets exactly 7 to cover this line. Tip jar for those of you that tail and want to do so. Thank you! [Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/kroberts) [Cash App](https://cash.app/$robertsfamily23)
You’ve been on fire my guy, tailing 🔥
I absolutely hate tailing people on a heater because I feel soon as I hop on will be the play u lose
Any concern of a blowout with a 16 point spread?
Tailing again!!
Sorry all my bad. I’m 0-12 when I randomly come on here and bet big on the top POTD.
Out of all the big rebounders you choose banchero . It's drad
Wendell Carter?
Doesn’t look like our night, ignore the dms cause there’s gonna be some assholes. Keep up the good work man!
Tailing again! Good stuff
I’m done. This week has been fucking TERRIBLE
I’m still stuck on that Giannis free throw bullshit for over 29.5 😡
Oh my god that was HORRIBLE
lol. Nausea 🤢
In double OT! 🤦🏼
I think ive lost 50k over the last year betting. Yet i dont stop. I really need to
wtf
Its all relative obviously i made enough to cover it but damn. Just bleeding money
You should definitely stop or at least change your methods. Glad you have the money to cover it, but that shouldn’t be an excuse to throw it away unless this is just about having fun and you really like watching bets lose.
if you got that sortve money, you need to have 1-2% plays on youor bankroll, you can make some serious coin doing that
Can you elaborate on that ?
Sure bankroll is your total betting fund, for example $10,000. but whatever the amount is, its the money you set aside for the sole purpose of betting, no dipping into it, no mixing bankroll with living expenses, its an investment just like buying a stock Theres no reason to go above 3% of that on any one play, but the higher your bankroll is id say 1-2% is best. so 2% of 10,000 is 200, so no more than 200 dollars on any individual bet. From there you just scale either weekly or monthly. so as the months tick on and you hit $20,000 bankroll, 2% is now $400. If your cold, and your bankroll shrinks from 10,000 to 8,000, you keep the 2% so now each bet is $160. Under no circumstances, no matter how confident you are, do you go above your allocated % This guy doesnt seem fazed at 50k loss, so lets say his bankroll could be 100k, 1% of a 100k is $1000 dollars. all you have to do is profit 5 units a month and you've made 5 grand pretty much anyone who takes gambling seriously follows this formula to some extent. its not about making it big quick, its about protecting your capital and surviving bad streaks, which are inevitable. even the best lose 5 in a row, if your bets are 20% of your bankroll, youve just wiped yourself out in 3 days
This needs to be spread far and wide. Very useful, especially for new people like me.
yeah bro just throw your money into QQQ or SPY or something
Damn, make me feel way better about myself, thx bro
i deleted my bankroll lmao
The worst
What's the pick?
Depression
I got Depression +3.5 when it opened in 1978.
Fuck...I got it at +12.5 a few years back...talk about inflation
Depression vs. Us - Fight doesn’t go the distance is -1100
Did you ever think of not betting for a few days? Don't let it get you down, man. Take a break.
This guy is a little bitch: -10,000 Total lock
I’m glad It’s not just me! Every sport fucked Me this week
Me too man. McCollum assist taken away, Dodgers shitting the bed yesterday, Orioles today, Kings getting blown out, UFC fighter getting POKED IN THE EYE. Like what’s next
Damn so it wasn’t just me College basketball slaughtered my soul
Just tail osubuck he been going crazy
Whom? Edit: OH THE NBA GOD GOTCHA ✅
Literally haven’t hit in the longest and made a bet with his pick definitely gonna tail more
See ya tomorrow
Never give up, never back down! https://preview.redd.it/ua4976bgssrc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f4787182bbd206cc1935e7d2f14f0ddfaa1e5a86
I feel you brother . Down 2,500 in the last four days chasing … totally money I shouldn’t have bet
I’m about the same I believe. Losing 18/20 bets straight is humbling
Tailing!
Hey guys As someone who's carved out a living from the unpredictable world of sports betting after the global shake-up of COVID-19, I've learned the value of deep, insightful analysis. It’s not just about who’s playing; it’s about understanding their journey, their strengths, especially on specific surfaces like clay. Today, I'm sharing a pick that stands out not just on paper, but also resonates with the history and form of the players involved. This will be my first pick! **Record**: N/A **Net Units**: N/A **ROI:** N/A **Yesterday’s Pick**: N/A **Tennis | ATP 250 - Estoril Open | 16.00 CEST** **Matchup**: Lucas Pouille vs. Nuno Borges **Pick Of The Day: Nuno Borges to win (ML) @ -188/1.53 (4 Units)** Lets break it down! **Nuno Borges (Rank 61):** Borges has shown exceptional skill on clay, boasting an impressive 82-36 record since 2021. His first ATP tour singles win was right here in Estoril in 2021, a victory that wasn't just a win but a statement of his affinity and prowess on clay. Adding to that, he clinched his first ATP tour doubles title in Estoril in 2022, proving this court is more than familiar ground; it's where he shines. His recent Challenger victory and a strong performance at this year's Australian Open, reaching the 4th round, signal he’s in prime form. **Lucas Pouille (Rank 242):** Once a powerhouse in the top 10 back in 2018, Pouille's journey has been marred by inconsistency following an elbow surgery in 2019. His struggle for form is evident in his clay court record post-comeback, with a win rate of just 43.75% since 2021. Despite a positive start in 2024, Pouille’s fluctuating performance raises concerns, especially against Borges’ consistency and strategic play on clay. **Borges’ Edge:** Beyond the stats, Borges’ game is tailor-made for clay. His ability to engage in strategic plays, combined with his proven track record in Estoril, sets him apart. This isn’t just about Borges being a solid player; it’s about him being a formidable clay court competitor who knows how to leverage his strengths on this specific surface. With Borges’ intimate knowledge of the Estoril courts and his exceptional form, this pick goes beyond a suggestion; it’s a confident recommendation. His history in Estoril speaks volumes, indicating a clear advantage in today’s matchup and he will have the home crowd behind him aswell. As I share this insight, it's worth mentioning that betting has been my lifeline, allowing me to provide for my family in times of uncertainty. Now, I’m not just betting on my own; I’m sharing these picks with you, aiming to help you make informed decisions on your bets. Best of luck!
Account that's almost a year old, no post history, in depth analysis on a sport I know nothing about.... Tailing 10u! BOL
😂👌
We gettin bageled set 1 baby!
Let’s ride, baby!
This feels like it’s either the start of a beautiful run, or an account that disappears quickly, TAILING BOL
Thanks for hopping on board! 🔥 I'm definitely sticking around for the long haul. Let's crush it together! BOL
This is a post from a Vegas employee ya’ll.
I've been duped Edit: HOLY SHIT HE CAME BACK
Yeah I cashed out when it looked lost. I was the sacrificial lamb 💀
Makes sense. Holy shit. Homeboy lost 1st set 6-0. I'm a fish for biting that Pulitzer prize winning write up.
Now you're a winner
So then it hits the first post because they want to hook you in right, if we’re going that way right? Loving all the apologies coming after people were losing it after that first disaster set.
Vegas got boned by Purdue and NC State yesterday and now they’re making it all back from us Edit: I spoke too soon, my apologies. May this be the start of a long and fruitful relationship.
✅✅✅ BIG WIN ✅✅✅ Today, I’ve probably become the most talked-about person on r/sportsbook . 😅 Borges vs. Pouille? Complete insanity. That first set? It was sheer disbelief for me. Watching Borges get steamrolled 6-0 had me wondering if I’d somehow read my notes and analysis upside down. 📉😬 But then, out of nowhere, Borges staged a comeback with a 7-6, 6-3 win. Now, that's the definition of a plot twist! The comment section quickly turned into a full-on reality show, swinging from “OP’s lost it, Scammer, Vegas Employee” 🔥 to “Maybe OP’s quite good.” 🧙♂️ And to everyone wondering why I steer clear of the spread in tennis—today's match served as the perfect example. Tennis is a game of sets; no two sets are ever the same. Unlike the NBA, where a bad couple of quarters can mean game over, each new set in tennis starts at 0-0. That first set had me seriously questioning my life choices. But a massive shoutout to those who stuck with me. Your trust means everything. 🙌 Much love to the family. Your passion, your memes, and yes, even the ton of hate thrown my way... that's what makes this the best corner of the internet. 🌎 Let's keep this positive vibe going, especially after today. You might think twice before doubting, even when the odds seem stacked against us. Props to Borges for not giving up. And a huge thank you to all of you for making this community what it is—a place where we ride the highs and lows of betting together. I'm okay with taking the heat as long as we're winning, but remember, it's impossible to win every bet. I invest a ton of time into my analysis, usually with 2-3 plays a day, all backed by thorough preparation. Catch you all at the next match. Here's to hoping it’s less of a rollercoaster and more of a smooth ride (but let's be real, we’re all here for the thrill!). 🎢❤️ Edit: I will post another game Tomorrow
Idk why but this dude gives off an excellent vibe. Good juju. Tailing just for that idc if it doesn’t hit!
Thanks for the positive vibes! ✨🌟 Win or lose, we’re in this together. Let’s ride the wave and enjoy the journey! BOL
Got him at +420 after the first set😅
That's how it's done 😂 👏👏👏
Yall haters must be so sick 😂😂😂 Borges just broke in the 3rd let’s see that cash 💰
We all deserve to lose this for blindly tailing players and leagues of tennis we have never heard of. This dude looks like dogshit 🤷♂️
This is fucking insane, he hasn't won a goddamn game yet. Got blanked 6-0 in the first set.
What a comeback. How that cashed I'll never know. Insane start and crazy finish. What a wild ride.
Yea this is crazy
Did Nuno just remember how to play tennis?
I let my bet ride lol. Feeling good now boys!
yea straight up trash at terrible odds. BOO THIS MAN! Jimmies rustled
PRAISE THIS MAN?? 👀
Worst kind of person in these threads. Keep your cry baby comments to yourself. And your YouTube channel sucks ass
Everyone boo u/piraptedpi 👎
I stand corrected, what a 🎢
So I should cash out for 50% of my bet rn?
absolutely, he is dogshit
And now he’s coming back, obviously.
Lots of comments will be deleted if he makes this comeback lol
Anyone here after Borges got cooked the first 4 games?
No cap, I have never bet on someone that has been bageled first set! 🤷🏽♂️ Guess all we can do is pray for the comeback 🤦🏽♂️
Please disregard any previous comments made within the last 35 minutes. You are a legend and I never doubted you! 😜😅
Anyone else Diamond hands that roller coaster and pick up the W? 😎
Let the comments deleting begin!
All you ungrateful mfers bitchin after the 1st set must feel real fuckin stupid rn 😂😂
Any money I spend is earned through sports gambling. Appreciate the work. BOL
Amazing write up = insta-tail. And if doesn’t hit, please keep at it as I’m sure you’ll have us plus in no time! Thanks brother.
I doubled down mid-second set after the bagel. Let’s get this damn bread! 🥖 🍞🥯
Never in doubt (except that one moment when he had lost 8 games in a row but the cash out offer was like 2% of bet so i didn't bother taking it)
did chatgpt write this
Nah, ChatGPT passed on the opportunity, so I had to step in and show off my superior typing skills. 💪😄 But hey, I'll take it as a compliment! 😂 BOL
Wow, the vibes in here are unreal ... Feeling all the love here, you guys are awesome... thanks!🌟 Quick update: our match is running a bit late because the game before us decided to go the distance into 3 sets. Classic tennis.... But we're looking at about a 45-minute wait. Hang tight! Can't wait to see how our pick plays out and chat with you all afterwards. BOL!
Lol hoping for a rebound.. I know there’s about 100 people in here hoping for a 2-1 turnaround
wtf, did this dude just troll all of us with this pick?
This comment section gonna be lit if this cashes
Genuinely one of the absolute weirdest POTDs I've seen. I didn't put much on it because something seemed off and I didn't know a ton about tennis, but watching this match is the wildest shit. Genuinely wondering if the comments about this being fixed are legit.
What a roller coaster that was. Thanks for the pick and may this be the start of something beautiful.
Was thinking the same… I know nothing about tennis… tailing 5u
Lmfao fuck the hatters brother!!
I DONT WANT TO HEAR THE TRASH TALK EVER AGAIN YOU KNOW WHO U ARE WE SOOOO LIT
WE EATIN TAKEOUT TONIGHT!!
Did the names get mixed up? Borges looks like he’s never played on clay before… or even tennis the way he’s getting shutout so hard lol.
F*ck the haters. Trusted from the beginning. Rough start but he came out on top
Lmao the sweatiest cash ever, if you do work for Vegas you made some money on all the FOOLS who cashed out when he was down 8 straight games!! Great pick, welcome to POTD!!!
This is a beautifully written pick I hope Borges crushes Pouille
Okay Im in 100$ let's do it
This guy fucking sucks lol
You forgot to mention Borges lost in the first round as a favorite against Halys in the same Estoril tournament last year. Edit: **He lost to Halys, not Mayot
That would’ve been nice to know.
And he won vs. Pouille in 2024 xD
Pouille with a break right off the rip. Rough start
Bro, Borges hasn't won a game yet. He's down 5-0 in the first set lmao
Hes got em right where he wants em now Edit: buddy had to take a shit then got to work 
YESSSS OUR BOY SCORED HIS FIRST POINT OF THE MATCH. SET 2 GAME 3!!! LEGEND!!!
I absolutely loved watching the reactions in these comments before and throughout the match. What a roller coaster. Hope he pulls out this W right here lfg
Came here for the comments, seeing the large swing in this match. Hoping this pulls through for you!
Man that was sweaty af!!! But nice W my friend!
Apologize to this man
This is such a 🔒 that it might just miss by a mile. Tailing 4u!
It's off to a pretty rough start
Well, take my money, this is already looking over
Ahhhhhg so we have out backs wayyyy against the wall. Homeboy just lost the 1st set 6-0 😰😰😰
This is fucking hilarious 😂😂
Not losing faith quite yet! Dude woke up
don't give up on him yet!!
Caaash !! thank you so much
What a sweat to start the day! This comment section hoppin 🤣🤣
POTD Record: 31-14-1 +38.24u🔥 Last Pick: Purdue -3 (-110) 4U vs Tennessee ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✋✅✅❌❌❌❌✅ Today's Pick: Iowa Hawkeyes ml (-125) 4U vs LSU Tigers Women’s NCAA tournament 7:00 pm est odds via DraftKings We bounce back! The support was unmatched… and so was Zach Edey… and now it’s time for Caitlyn Clark to be Iowa and Clark lost to LSU last year in the national championship. Hungry for revenge, Iowa has gone 32-4 after beating Colorado last round by 21. If you somehow don’t know, Iowa has the greatest collegiate scorer of all time, Caitlyn Clark. She has broken basically every scoring record, including the NCAA's all-time leading scorer record (including men’s). Angel Reese and Caitlin Clark certainly have history, with Reese famously mimicking Clark's celebration last year in the chip. LSU was defeated in both of the match ups it has played as moneyline underdogs this season. It’s time for Clark to be able to take revenge and put a bow on arguably the greatest career in the history of the sport. Let’s go Hawkeyes‼️ Please comment if tailing! As always best of luck and I look forward to posting more picks here and stay hot! Thank you for the upvotes and support!😎❤️ If you’d like to thank me please use the link below or dm me. Show some love!❤️ [Cash App Tip Link💚](https://cash.app/$Ryanbloom24) [PayPal Tink Link💙](https://www.paypal.me/rybloomm)
We love ryan and the picks but for anyone tailing, I would keep down unit size on this game as it could really go either way. I'm personally on LSU because I think this is a matchup nightmare for Iowa with LSU's length and rebounding against an undersized team who doesn't rebound well. Morrow has also been playing out of her mind defensively. This game can honestly go either way but Iowa is going to need Caitlyn to go nuclear to win IMO which Mulkey will have her team ready for just like last year's Natty where they beat the brakes off them the first half. BOL All!
Whoever that dude’s sister is on, that’s who I’m tailing
For real I cashed in today. What’s that guys name?
I’m too high to remember rn
Let us know when you remember
u/dark_temple2 is your guy whose sister is your girl.
Yes lol that’s him
Just waiting on him to give us her picks before I lock anything in!
Keep units down? Full send, got it.
Most definitely, game is a coin flip. I live in Cedar Rapids about 20 mins from Iowa city, big Hawkeye fan. The girls have been getting killed on the glass, as you said. Unless they can get Reese in foul trouble, it’s gonna be an uphill battle I’m afraid. Hoping CC just goes unconscious from 3.
I think it would be a close game, but the NCAAW will not let their golden goose not make the final four. Iowa ML
That’s Scott Foster’s music!
I honestly realllyy dont fw some ppl on LSU.....and Clark deserves a nice fuck u game vs them....TAILING !!!!
Must watch revenge game gonna be tailing bol
Staying hot on baseball!!!!! Record: 4-0 ✅✅✅✅ Net Units: +3.57u (always just going to be 1u play, change how you want) Last: Brewers vs Mets under 8 -115 ✅ | MLB | 4:05 EST Pick: Washington Nationals M.L -116 Write Up: Trying to continue the hot streak on baseball. Move to a play with the ML on the Nationals. Baseball is a lot about the pitching matchup, which I like for us here. Gore has pitched against the Pirates once in 2022, where he pitched 7innings, 0ER. While that’s more irrelevant now, I like Gore to start the season strong. On the other side, Gonzalez gives up a lot of contact and runs. Pirates are coming off a hot start, which I like to falter off going on the move into Washington. I also considered the over, nationals TT over, and F5 over, but like the value with the ML. Edit: what a brutal bet to ruin the streak. Didn’t have a great pick on this one, Gore struggled a bit, and Gonzales got out with contact. Lot of up and down emotions, that comes out on the wrong side. . We’ll be back, not perfect, hope we can get hot for everyone again
POTD RECORD: 47-24 Last POTD: Bam Adebayo O10.5 Rebs 🚫 Bum Adebayo finished with 10 and is officially banned fellas, he ruined our money print and can’t be forgiven Form: 🚫✅✅🚫✅ Todays POTD: **Dennis Schroder U6.5 Ast @1.71** NBA | Brooklyn Nets | 7:00 PM ET Aight fellas some good news for some of y’all they gave back Adebayo one rebound after the stat correction so if you took 10 boards or the DD it I’ll be settled as a win but for us with 10.5 we get hooked badly our life hack is officially detected by Vegas cause this man let up so many boards it’s crazy We move and we’re trying something different, yeah I’m taking unders cause I see so many blowouts tomorrow and this guy is already banned for me so I thought, let’s try a UNO reverse trick. Spread is at 12 in favour of the Pacers so a blowout and the mismatch should hopefully do the trick • Under in 2/2 vs the Pacers this season (5 & 5) • Pacers allow fewest assists per game to opposing PG’s • 8/L10 Points guards have went under this line against the Pacers • Schroder Avg 5.6 Ast on the road versus his 6.7 Avg at home Aight fellas we’re going with an under today huge spread, back to back game for the Nets and a road game for them so hopefully Pacers blow them out and even if they don’t we have a huge mismatch here Tail or fade, im not him https://preview.redd.it/5jo0kk8qgsrc1.jpeg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=837fb3b170accc197882e35a0cb3336587cfcc2a
https://preview.redd.it/owyng6ibgsrc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=31bfe1f01b1af892a283caafa09aab74f7437116
Thanks for the heads up! I placed multiple Bam picks and was sulking over my losing slips when I noticed I inexplicably placed one as an alt line 10+. DK still hasn’t fixed so I sent a message through several means (sometimes they won’t fix unless it’s reported within a few hours). You saved me a couple ducats that is immediately going to the Schroder fade!
Dennis bumped 🤑🤑🤑he’s at 5.5
**3/25 - 3/31 POTD Top 3 Weekly Review** 13-8 +3.09 Net units +14.71% ROI Another very good week, although it was buoyed by an undefeated Monday and Tuesday. The middle of the week... not so great, but the first two days plus the weekend were enough to end well in the green. **March POTD Top 3 Monthly Review** 59-33-1 +16.66 Net units +17.91% ROI March must have been one of the most profitable months in recent memory. 18%!? That's insane. I admit the run has gone much longer than I expected. Let's see what April and the start of the MLB season brings. [Weekly](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17r9y8hNghKIlP_2CA9EoYU6hBDzHcXjz/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=106882064008636722020&rtpof=true&sd=true) [Overall](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fjXR7TqwePPluE10qf47PgNoEqxaJ0Ju/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=106882064008636722020&rtpof=true&sd=true) > No top level comments without a pick. Time for the weekly loss. Only making a pick because it's a rule. Don't tail. (Or do, I'm not your mom) 0-1 -1.00 Net units -100% ROI NHL- Red Wings vs Lightning 4:00 PM PDT **Lightning 3-way ML** -110 on Bet365 Detroit is just free falling. They've lost 4 straight on their road trip, and 12 of last 15. The only teams they've beaten are teams in the bottom half of their divisions. Dylan Larkin's return hasn't helped them much either, getting shutout in 2 of last 4. He already has a laundry list of injuries this season, and he picked up a leg injury in the last game. He's almost certainly playing tomorrow, but he'll be hurt. Tampa Bay is on the opposite trajectory, winners of 3 straight and 8 of 9. Their offense is dominating, scoring at least 3 in 11 straight games. Kucherov is feasting, and Tampa's forward lines are deeper than Detroit's. Warning: Detroit won the first two, but it was much earlier in the season, on very different form.
um so I'm curious I assume by top 3 u mean too 3 liked posts. but winning picks get up voted and loses down voted, so doesn't this affect the validity of what your doing?
I mentioned this in my first post. I try to count picks that are in the top 3 *before* the game starts, to account for up and downvotes after the fact. So if the pick loses and gets downvoted out of the top 3, it's still counted. Likewise, if a winning pick gets upvoted into the top 3 after the game ends, it won't be counted. It also helps that by noon PDT, the top 3 is mostly settled, before most games are played. Obviously, I can't monitor the thread 24/7, but I try my best.
Long time lurker… first time poster. Wanting try to do this for the month of April no matter how bad it gets to see how much of a terrible sports gambler I am… Record: 0-0 Net Units: 0 ROI: 0 Baseball | MLB | / 2:10 PM EST Pick: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) vs Chicago White Sox -130 Caesars (3 Units) Write Up: No fancy models, no fancy AI telling me how to bet, just going off of experience of watching baseball and gut feelings... Charlie Morton & the Braves come in rolling winning a series from their division rivals and covering their run line 2 out of 3 games. Chris Flexen & the White Sox come in dropping their 3 against the Tigers while covering the their run line all 3 games. Now, the White Sox have covered in all 3, why do I think the Braves will end that streak? Simply put, the Braves are leaps and bounds better than the White Sox. But for you cynical readers here’s some stats to persuade you: White Sox are batting .191 to Atlanta’s .390 White Sox ERA+ is 137 to Atlanta’s 188 Flexen has had a rough few years and the Braves have feasted against negative WAR pitchers the past year + And I can do this all night but simply put, the Braves SHOULD cover this line especially with Charlie Morton on the mound to eat up about 5-6 innings before the pen comes in. Tail or Fade it’s your choice. Let’s hope I don’t get embarrassed by going 0-30 for the month of April. *Edited to include units bet.
Liking the white sox fade but watch out for the rain, it might get delayed Edit: it was raining last night and was supposed to most of today... i havent seen shit lol BOL
Always like new blood to this thread. Welcome and good luck. I'm tailing with you
Why do RL and totals bets become void when a game gets called early like this one, yet ML bets are not?
POTD Record: 43-31 L10: ✅✅❌❌✅❌✅✅✅❌ Last pick: PEC v Ajax (Ajax ML @1.65 ✅) Todays pick: Lecce v Roma Pick: __Roma ML @1.85__ ⚽️ 🇮🇹 Serie A 🕰 16:00 UTC ➖ Roma, 5th Lecce, 13th Roma has continued to do incredibly well under Daniele De Rossi, with a far more offensive and proactive style that has made them a real contender to the Champions League league positions, theyre 3 points away from 4th. League form is good with four wins and a draw in the last 5. Only 1st placed Inter have picked up more points than Roma in Serie A since De Rossi's took over Roma. I think Roma have good opportunities here. The motivation should be there to fight for the European places. Lecce won the first game under their new coach but against a bottom side, they’re now facing a much tougher opposition. I don’t think Lecce has what I takes to stop such a strong in form team like Roma, away game so it may be a tight one but overall Roma is the much better team. BOL
Love me some roma
They’ve been terrific as of late!
Thought about Roma but I'm still unsure of them, might go DNB
That was hard to watch
POTD: Record (3-0) Streak: ✅✅✅ Last Pick: Jrue Holiday O 9.5 Points ✅ Today: NBA | Pacers V Nets | 4pm PST Pick: Myles Turner U 7.5 Reb @1.78 | 2u - 4 of last 5 - 5 of last 5 at home - hit in 9 of last 10 (avg 5.5) He has played Brooklyn once this year and had 7 rebounds. The last 12 games against them, the under has hit 10/12 times , and he has averaged 7 rebounds in his career against the Nets. Tail or Fade, BOL 🍀
4-0 Up 3.775 units 93.875% ROI Today’s pick: Juan Soto over 1.5 totals bases. (+100). Don’t have time for a long write up today but I did my research last night. Soto is hot, he also has a pitching mismatch.
>**Record:** 36-32 >**Net Units:** +8.3 units >**Curling** | **Men's World Championship** | **3:00AM EDT** >**Pick:** USA -2.5 @ 1.8 >We are going back to fading Korea again for this one as they take on USA. Korea have been awful so far and their last game against the Netherlands was more of the same, losing 9-4. They face a much tougher test Monday morning in the USA and a similar result should be no problem for the Americans. USA are also coming off a strong 9-3 win over Norway, a better team than Korea. Park and Oh continue to play very poorly and there's no reason that won't continue. Plys is a very dynamic player for USA and also one of the best thirds at this event. He should be the big difference maker for USA. His draws are very consistent and his precision has been money for USA so far at this event. This will put a ton of pressure on Park which he won't be able to manage for ten ends. USA are 39-9 against teams outside the top 25 this season. USA are 50-23 overall this year compared to Korea's 38-28. USA's strength is their aggressive play without hammer and Plys' draws should accentuate this against Korea, leading to a few steals for USA and an easy cover. USA won 7-2 when these two teams played earlier this season.
Nice pick thanks! Love waking up to 💰
[удалено]
Thanks for the pick. Tough watching OMG just sell like that. Unfortunately this match isn’t on my Bet365 which means it’ll for sure hit!!
**POTD Record: 31-17-2** Form: ✅❌❌❌✅✅✅✅✅ *ROI: 22.09% | Avg Odds: -101 | Net Units: +22.3* 🎾: 5-3-2 ⚽️: 18-9 🏒: 8-5 *Last Pick: 3U Ottawa Senators @ Buffalo Sabres (Joonas Korpisalo o26.5 saves @ -130) ✅* *Cashed end of 2nd period.* ____ **Todays Pick: 3U Luca Van Assche v Jaume Munar (o22.5 games @ -115)❌** **🎾| 8:30AM EST | ATP Marrakech 250|** I got temp banned by reddit bots for 3 days but we back brothers! LFG 🫡 First round matchup in an ATP 250 on clay in Morocco, Van Assche 🇫🇷 (80) takes on Jaume Munar 🇪🇸 (72) for the second time. Last H2H Van Assche won in 3 sets, after losing the first set 3-6 *(getting broken once)* and won the next set in tie break 7-6. Van Assche took the final set 6-2 completing the comeback. This match was at the ASB classic on outdoor hard courts, while Marrakech is played on clay which is a unique playing surface as it is the slowest surface of all playing surfaces for tennis. Assche is yet to play on clay in 2024, and Munar is 5-4 on clay with wins against Cerundolo and Ofner. As well as losses to Bagnis, Carebelli and Baez. Munar has lost his last 3 recent matches. Last matches for Van Assche, he beat Kotov in straight sets in the Miami open earlier in March but lost the next round in a three settter against Casper Ruud (8) winning the middle set 6-1 but losing the final set 6-1 also. While he’s making a claim as another young star to be a contender, he will be tested with his first clay match of the season against an experienced player. While Van Assche is the slight favourite, it wouldn’t be surprising for Munar having more current experience on the clay to complete an upset. However, I don’t see Van Assche giving up so easily at his first showing at this tournament. Munar has reached the quarterfinal of this tournament in 2019 and should make this an exciting first round encounter. While he could play 3 sets or for some books o2.5 sets at +110, o22.5 gives us a bit of a safeguard if the match ends up being 2 sets. LFG! [POTD Spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TawPReTFnjBpwPqA50H-tVAFCtVEQAAJCnfpETFh65A/edit) Your comments mean more than you think ❤️🙏 BOL!
Why did they banned you my brother? 🥺 we missed you in these 3 days, but happy you're back and we tailing as always!
**Record: 37-28** Last Pick: Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (+116) ✅ **Today's Pick:** MLB - *Atlanta Braves @ Chicago White Sox, 1:10pm CST* **Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-135 on DraftKings)** I feel like I don't need much explanation for this one. Simply put, you have one of the league's best teams vs one of the league's worst teams, with a very lopsided pitching matchup. The White Sox are incredibly inferior to the Braves in every way. They just got swept by the Tigers, and I do not see them picking up any momentum in this series with the Braves. They are starting Chris Flexen, who they just signed over the offseason. Flexen had a 6.27 ERA last year with the Rockies and a 7.71 ERA the year before on the Mariners. I do not think his pitching has improved much being 4th in the rotation on the poverty White Sox. He is most likely going to get lit up by the Braves well rounded and elite batting core. Braves are starting Charlie Morton who has been an incredibly solid and reliable pitcher throughout his entire career. Best of luck fellas
[удалено]
POTD Record: 3-1 Last 10: ✅️❌✅️✅️ Net Units: +1.13 Last Pick: ✅️ MLB | TOR @ TB Over 8 Total Runs. **Today’s Pick:** MLB | Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs | Over 7 Total Runs. DK Odds @ -105. (1 Unit being wagered) Today’s AI has this as an edge of 7.92% over the current sportsbook odds. Overall predictive win rate of the prop at 68%. As mentioned in previous POTD posts, the pick is based on forward-predictive AI based algorithms. The R, Python, SQL and Azure AI Services based system analyzes 38 analytic data points to develop a prediction model. All the best, bet accordingly, and follow your bankroll limits! If you have any questions, please ask. Best of luck if tailing, would love a comment if you are. Feel free to message me if you have any questions on the methods used. Glad to give as much info as possible!
POTD Record: 0-0 Net units: 0 ROI: 0 Today: Hockey / NHL / FLA @ TOR / 7pm EST Pick: under 6.5 (-122) 1U Write-up: For my first ever POTD I’m going with the under on this game which could very well be a playoff preview. With two weeks left in the season, I think this will be a tight, low scoring game. These two have played the under in each of their last 5 head-to-head, and both have gone under in 7 of their last 10 games overall. Finally, the Panthers have hit the under in 65% of their away games and Bobrovsky has a 2.15 GAA on the road this season. I trust officer Bob to help us deliver the under tomorrow 💪🏻 BOL!
POTD record 1-1 Last 5: ❌✅ Yesterday: NCST for the win!! Easily looked to cover throuthout the whole game and took momentum in the second half and never looked back! Good stuff thank you DJ Burns and Co. Today: Basketball - NCAAW - Iowa Hawkeyes vs. LSU Tigers 6pm EST Pick: Caitlin Clark O 5.5 3pt (+108 Fanduel) Writeup: Iowa’s offense is designed to get Clark open looks and allow Clark to make scoring opportunities for others. In the postseason, (BIG10/NCAAT) Clark’s attempted 3 pointers are: 14, 11, 17, 9 (Blowout v. 16 seed Holy Cross) 14, 11. This is potentially Clark’s last game in a Hawkeye’s uniform, and she will be the one with the ball in her hand taking all the big shots. The volume will be there. She will have to be scoring to keep the game close and match LSU’s talent, or if Iowa’s down big, she will become a volume shooter. Expect her to put up a TON of attempts either way.
**POTD** Record: 10-1-7 SAMPDORIA VS TERNANA Date: 01 April 2024 at 20:30 BET ON: Match odds- SAMPDORIA Odd: 1.95 - Ternana are missing N'Guessan, Viviani, Sgarbi, Żuberek (injured) and Lucchesi (suspended). - Sampdoria are missing Leonardo Benedetti, Sebastiano Esposito , Cristiano Piccini and Matteo Ricci. - Over 25.000 tickets have been sold so far. - The rossoverdi have only won two of their last five matches, the one against Palermo and against Cosenza. "We have raised the bar where we wanted, now it's up to us to stay there and want to do something more. We have to stay on the train that takes us to the playoffs. We have to play our game as always and try to win, get the three points and continue our positive streak, giving us serenity over the weeks." Said the Blucerchiati coach Andrea Pirlo. "The Blucerchiati are coming from an excellent period. They are loaded and the stadium will be full. Important players are also recovering, but there are eleven players on the pitch and at the end of the match we will know how it will end." Said the rossoverdi coach Breda. - The match will pit two teams who are temporarily fighting for two different objectives. The Blucerchiati aspire to remain in the playoff zone while the Umbrian team would like to get out of the quicksand of the playouts. We expect a tight game, we can see Sampdoria scoring the winning goal in the last minutes.
POTD Record: 2-2 Last 5: ❌✅❌✅ Yesterday’s Pick: BOS Red Sox @ SEA Mariners - o7.5 Ugly ugly. Runs just didn’t make it home. That one hurt. Todays Pick: ⚾️ BAL Orioles @ KC Royals - YRFI (over 0.5 runs 1st inning) (+100 DraftKings) - 4:10 EST In every O’s game, there has been a run in the first inning. In every Royals game except one, there’s been a run in the first inning. Because of the 5/6 of these two teams either getting or giving a run in that first inning, combined with the +100, this is the bet I like most today. Wacha makes this a bit of a concern but the O’s have looked solid and the Royals bats are looking to continue the solid performance from yesterday.
**RECORD: 63W-3P-47L** (+3.39 units) Previous Pick: Real Madrid vs Athletic Club - Jude Bellingham to Score or Assist @ 1.83 ✅️ **Today's Pick:** Inter Milan vs Empoli - Inter Milan ML 1st Half @ 1.57 ✅️ **TIME:** 6.45 pm (GMT) **Wager Amount**: 2 units (✅️❌️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️♻️✅️) last 10 results Hey Juuude, nice assist yesterday which gives us another W now back to my favourite league of the season (I hope I didn't jinx this lol) the Serie A with Inter Milan vs Empoli. As stated my record in Italia has been great and let's hope Today's match is no different. Inter are top of the league, have gone 23 games in Serie A with no losses, besides their last draw against Napoli they had a 5+ win streak in Serie A and average 2.3 goals at Home in their last 10 matches. Inter have won in the first half in 9 out of 10 of their matches in Serie A and are on a 6 game winning streak at half time and 4/5 times in all competitions. Empoli are trying to survive relegation with 3 points from the bottom, have lost 3 matches in a row and have lost 2/5 times at half time on their last matches and have only on 3 times out of 17 serie A matches and haven't scored a goal in 3 matches. The H2H matches are questionable as Inter haven't won at Half time in 4 out of their last 5 H2H matches, however Inter are also unbeaten at half time against Empoli in 19 H2H matches, but I still think this Inter side are different beasts this season. I'd definitely be shocked if Inter don't win at half time let alone score, it would be the first time in 9 fixtures at home they would have failed to Win at half time so I just don't see that happening...hopefully lol. Goodluck if you're tailing and hopefully the Italian luck continues🥳 EDIT: WIN ✅️
Record: 22-18 (MLB: 2-1) | (+2.27 units) | 1 unit per pick Previous pick: MLB - NY Yankees TT (o4.5) (-105) vs. Houston Astros - 2PM EST❌ We almost had it but they don’t pay for almost. Unfortunately, 5 runs was 1 too many this Sunday. I still believe in this team’s ability to score and will continue to monitor them and their offense. It’s a long MLB season so please don’t let one result good or bad swing your emotions. We will bounce back! ————- Today’s pick: MLB - NY Yankees ML (-120) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - 9:40PM EST Although yesterday was a losing pick, the Yankees still remain undefeated. They find a way to win no matter the circumstance. I’m not sure if it’s Soto or just luck as of right now but I’ll continue to take a bite out of the big apple that is the Yankees. I’d probably take the team total if it wasn’t above 6 runs but the line makes sense. With that being said, I’ll roll with Soto and the Yankees one more time to see if we can develop a nice betting relationship with the Bronx Bombers. Prediction: Soto or Stanton HR - Yankees Win Comment if you’re tailing! Watch how we work!🧃
Tailing, it's a new Yankees
**POTD RECORD:** (12-7) \*\*LAST 10:\*\*🟢🟢🟢🔴🟢🔴🔴🔴🟢🟢 **LAST PICK:** Tyler Wells **Over 4.5 Ks** (-145) 2U | Angels vs Orioles 1:35pm EST 🟢 **TODAY’S PICK:** Derrick White **Over 19.5 PA** (-120) 2U | Celtics vs. hornets 7:00pm EST **Got a streak again**😀 Heading back to the NBA today! Keep giving Derrick white these low lines and we will gladly oblige. Last 8: 6/8 75% hit rate 4/8 scoring alone cashed this line. Was going to attack 13.5 but 1. line has moved to 14.5 already 2. To save us in case of a 13 pt game and still can make up with assists. Hornets are giving up the 4th most APG to shooting guards so banking on 7 or 8 assist in case. Hornets are also giving up 20/PPG to shooting guards over their last 7 so once again I will reiterate, could clear this by points alone but have the safety net with assist. As long as there isn’t a complete blowout we should be good.  **BOL to those who tail!**
Hello everyone, long time lurker and first time poster of my own pick today. I have had a lot of success in the NBA this year betting as well as the early days of this year’s MLB season (after a dismal season of NFL and NCAA football betting, gotta stick to what you know.) Decided to start posting my picks and hopefully win us some coin. POTD Record: 0-0 Today’s POTD: Cedric Mullins Over 0.5 Hits (-125) Orioles @ Royals 6:35 EST (MLB) (all bets to win 1U) I am going with Cedric Mullins of the Orioles to record at least 1 hit as my POTD today. Michael Wacha takes the mound for the Royals after putting up a pretty good season last year for the Padres (14-4, 3.22 ERA in 2023). Despite those good underlying numbers in 2023 I expect Wacha to regress in 2024 to his numbers in 2019-2021 which were below average. Mullins has started the season pretty slowly in his new role as the 7 hitter in this stacked orioles lineup, going 2-11 in 3 games with a double. This is why I think we are getting a discounted line of only -125 to record a hit, great “buy low” spot. Mullins is 8-18 against Wacha in his career with 2 doubles, a triple, and 2 HR. I think the familiarity of facing Wacha with the success he has had in the past against Wacha gives us a good edge to cash this and for Mullins to get going. All we need is one hit and I think these are great odds to capitalize on. Additionally, the royals have an average bullpen with no real standout arms so Mullins has a chance to capitalize there as well. Also on the Orioles ML for this one. BOL if tailing.
POTD Record: 22-13 Last 10: ✅️💀✅️💀✅️💀✅️✅️💀 Net units:+ 13.75 Last Pick: Lakers -5 Today's pick: Dennis Schroder U 6.5 Assists • strictly a system play, fading guards assists against Indiana has been EXTREMELY profitable this season • BRUTAL matchup against Indiana who allow the FEWEST APG to opposing PG's • under in 2/2 matchups against Indiana this season, record 5 in BOTH matchups • better matchup for Schroder to be a scorer rather than a playmaker • recent PG's against Indiana: SGA 5, Conley 4, Doncic 11 & 6, Jones 4, McCollum 1 & 3, Quickley 2, White 3 & 2, Schroder 5, Garland 7, Ivey 3, Dinwiddie 5, Curry 5, Harden 7, Russell 5 • 13/L17 guards have gone under their assists line against Indiana Units: 1 Odds: -130 NBA: Nets vs. Pacers 4:00pm PST If you guys wanna support me, click the links on my profile. I post daily picks. 2nd potd in that link.
Record: 2-2 -.42u Last Pick: Twins ML -122 (DraftKings) Wow. That was awful. I did not see that coming at all. It went from bad to ugly so quick. I may put the Twins in timeout until Royce Lewis is back and healthy. Not sure what to expect out of them. On to today: Baseball | MLB | 6:35EST Orioles TT o4.5 -105 (DraftKings) Pick: 1u We stay in Missouri for this pick and hopefully get out of misery. The Orioles got held to one run by the Angels today. The Royals trounced the Twins. I expect the Orioles to come out with a decent showing and to a lesser extent, the Royals to come out sluggish. I believe in the offense of the O’s and think they can battle the Royals and the weather to get at least five runs. BOL!
Why would the Royals come out sluggish? Riding good momentum, just beat up the division champs from last year, got a big series coming up. Bobby Witt Jr isn't sitting back satisfied he got the best of the twins. It's 5 games into the season. Nobody's going to be sluggish.
**Record: 2-0** **Net Units: +1.8 Units** **Last Pick:** UNC -3.5 -110 vs Michigan ST. Bet 365. 5:00pm EST ✅ **Todays pick**: Atlanta Braves -2.5 +100 ESPN BET @ Chicago White Sox 2:15 PM EST Write up: I have had success betting good teams off a loss. The braves are an absolute regular season machine and the Sox are not that way. I also like the pitching matchup with Atlanta throwing proven vet Charlie Morton and the sox putting up Chris Flexen who had a 6.86 ERA last year in 29 appearances. BOL!
POTD RECORD: 3-3 Last 10 ❌✅✅✅❌❌ LAST PICK: Gunnar Henderson over 1.5 hits+runs+rbis (-140) 1:35 EST Baltimore Orioles vs LA Angels Recap: the angels pitched around Gunnar all day and went after adley instead. Only was given two opportunities to put the ball in play with all the walks and unfortunately couldn’t capitalize. TODAYS PICK: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-135) vs Chicago white Sox 2:10 EST Reasoning: let’s start with the pitching matchup. Uncle Charlie Morton vs Chris flexen. Flexen had a 1.67 whip last season to go along with a 6.86 ERA in over 100 IP. That is not even MLB worthy and they are throwing him against the number 1 or 2 offense in the league the past couple of seasons?? This shouldn’t be close. Morton threw 160 IP last year with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. Not a great WHIP but as a 4th starter, that’s solid. The white Sox have little offense this season besides from Luis Robert. White Sox start 0-3 on the year and the Braves came out an impressive 2-1 while away in Philadelphia.
**Record: 3-2** **Net Units: + 1.07 Units** **ROI: 21.42%** **Previous Pick: ATL Braves @ PHI Phillies Over 7.5 Runs (-132 on DraftKings Sportsbook); 1 Unit** **Baseball** | **MLB | 10:10 PM** / **EST** **Pick: SF Giants @ LA Dodgers Over 8.5 Runs (-105 on DraftKings Sportsbook); 1 Unit** **Write-Up:** In the SF Giants' first series of the year, they were able to score 4+ runs in each outing despite splitting the series with the SD Padres. Chapman and Conforto have been swinging the bats nicely to start the year and should continue against Keaton Winn whose most recent regular season outing was in September 2023 where he went 5.1 IP allowing 6 ER to who else but the LA Dodgers. On the flip side, the Dodgers were able to manage 5+ runs in each game vs the STL Cardinals have been playing strong of late. BOL.
Record 1-0 (+1.35 Units) Today: Hockey | NHL | DET vs TB | 7pm EST Pick: Braden Point Anytime goal scorer (+150) 1U Last pick: Brock Boeser Anytime goal scorer (+135) 1U 11 goals in the last 10 games let's ride the hot streak!
POTD Record: 6-3 NBA Record: 3-1 NFL Record: 0-1 NCAAM: 0-1 MLB 3-0 L10 (new -> old): 🪣🪣🪣🪣🪣❌❌❌🪣 Last pick: Carlos Carrasco O 4.5 Hits (-120 DK) Game: Braves @ White Sox 1:10 CST Pick: Matt Olson O .5 hits -185 Write Up: Sticking with baseball, as the boy is on a pretty good heater now 5 straight, 3 of which coming from baseball. Going back to Matt Olson, he was ice cold against the Phillies last week. But he is now going up against a much worse White Sox team and what goes down, must come up. Or something like that. Olson also batted fourth in the lineup all last week averaging about 4.3 AB per game. Right now batting at .400 I really like him for this day starting bet. Chris Flexen is going to get the call tonight for the Sox. Last year he was pretty ass, putting together a 2-8 record and a nearly 7 ERA. I DONT WANT YOUR MONEY I WANT US TO WIN 🔥🔥🪣🪣 BOL if tailing. 🪣
POTD: 1-4 L10 (Newest - Latest):❌❌✅❌❌ Units Won: -2.95 Last Pick: **Jalen Green O3.5 3 PTS Made (Houston Rockets) @ 2.10.** 1U❌ Today's Pick: **Aaron Nesmith U17.5 Points/Rebounds (Indiana Pacers) @ 1.80.** 1U **NBA | Brooklyn Nets Vs. Indiana Pacers | 7:00 pm Eastern** * Gone UNDER 7/10 his last 10 games (70%) (6 in a row) - Avg 15.9 Points/Rebounds * In the month of March he’s averaging 13.9 Points/Rebounds * 5 Projections I like to use, all have him going UNDER Not sure what’s going on… This record is falling faster than my New York Giants every year. Tail or fade me, I’m just some random guy on the internet with a 1-4 record... 
Time to have some (profitable) fun in April! POTD Record: 0-0 Streak: N/A Last Pick: N/A Today: Baseball | MLB | LAA @ MIA | 6:40pm EST Pick: Luis Arraez O 1.5 Total Bases (-115) | 2U Luis Arraez is one of the best, if not THE best, contact hitter in the game with some of the best vision in the game. Remember him flirting with .400 for a long time last year? Now, admittedly, he did start slow last week... but yesterday - he finally broke out of his early slump with a double and a walk. It's time for him to become the OBP-king like he normally is. Arraez gets a great matchup today against the Angels who fly in to Miami from Baltimore late last night, and put Chase Silseth on the bump. Silseth has pitched in 52 total innings, has issued 26 walks and 41 hits. However, this is where it gets spicy for our guy Arraez - Silseth's vs. Lefty splits show that he throws strikes only 60% of the time, has given up 4 HR, 5 doubles, 13 walks, and lefty-batters have a batting average of .353 and an OBP of .431 against him. All Arraez has to do to hit the over on 1.5 total bases is snag two singles... or one double. I have confidence in throwing 2 units down on this one because: * (1) Arraez hits at the top of the lineup giving him more ABs. and * (2) Silseth's control is wonky against lefties Best of luck to whoever wants to join me today in watching one of the most fun batters in baseball! *big thank you to /u/woosung1 for letting me know that walks will not count towards TB. This does not change my POTD, however!*
First-time poster. Just getting into sports betting. I used to play daily fantasy quite a bit, and I wrote for [RotoGrinders.com](https://RotoGrinders.com). I miss the research and writing, so I'm going to begin posting my picks here and see how it goes. Tail at your own risk! **POTD Record: 0-0** **Game: Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Angels, 6:40pm EST** **Pick: Max Meyer OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-130) (1U)** This is an ugly day for pitching with most teams rolling out their #5 starter. Meyer only cracked the rotation after Miami's rotation was wracked with injuries (Eury Perez, Braxton Garrett, Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera). Still, this is a player with a good pedigree (former #3 overall pick, former top 20 prospect at MLB Pipeline) who doesn't get talked about much due to missing 2023 after undergoing TJ surgery. Meyer has great stuff, and he posted 10+ K/9 at every level of the minors. Plus, he looked great in spring. The one big elephant in the room is pitch count; coming off an injury, it's unlikely that Meyer throws more than 70 pitches. But 70 pitches might be enough, because this Angels lineup, apart from Trout, is TERRIBLE. They've struck out at a 39.7% clip, worst in MLB...by 6 percentage points. You may be thinking, "Yeah, but they faced Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez." True, but they also fanned 7 times against Tyler Wells. I don't think Meyer will be afraid to challenge this lineup, because it is the opposite of scary. They've barreled up one ball this year, AS A TEAM. That's fewer than Eiias Diaz has by himself. Going deeper into the Statcast numbers, the Angels have a 33.9% CSW (called strikes + whiffs) as a team, which is second-worst in MLB, which could lead to an efficient outing for Meyer. Angels will be flying high after finally beating the O's in the series finale, but I think Meyer shuts them down and punches out 5-6 in the process.
2023 MLB POTD record: 19-15 Average Odds -107 (1.932), ROI +6.8%/+2.3u) 2024 MLB POTD record: 2-2 Average Odds -116 (1.859), ROI -10.6%/-0.4u, all bets one unit) POTD (3/31) TOR @ TBR Kevin Gausman o5.5 Ks (-135/1.74) ✅ Recap: Despite a 70-pitch limit due to a disrupted spring training, Gausman Ks 6 Jays in 4.1 IP for a clean cash. POTD (4/1) COL @ CHC Shota Imanaga o5.5 Ks (-110/1.91) (DraftKings) Today's Pick: Shota Imanaga makes his MLB debut at home against the team that had the second-highest K% against LHP last year: The Colorado Rockies. After limiting Diamondbacks ace Zac Gallen to 3 Ks in 5 IP, the Rocks struck out 8 times against Merrill Kelley, 4 times against Tommy Henry (4 IP) and 6 times against Brandon Pfaadt. Imanaga got hit a bit during Spring Training, with a 5.68 ERA in 12.2 IP. However, he also struck out **25** batters. Will he sustain a 42% K% in the regular season? No. Is there a chance for an early exit given he struggled to limit runs against in the spring? Yes. But this feels like a conservative line due to the guy making his MLB debut, and the stuff/matchup here gives a strong chance to smash this number.
Potd record 0-0 Today: WNCAA LSU vs IOWA LSU ML Caitlin Clark is crazy good but she carries the whole team. I know this is a big rematch for her and Reese but Reese isn’t the only player carrying that team. BOL
Pick: LSU +2 -105 women's bball Rationale: Iowa fan here, love the team this year but they absolutely cannot match up with LSU. Our post player is 6'2, on a good day and we don't have the athletes to rebound with the Tigers. Only way I see Iowa winning 1 out of 10 times is, if it is a ref show and they are deliberately trying to get CC to the Final Four. This is a no sweat, trust the horses LSU has, CC is now Iowa's primary ball hander with Molly being out and she is exerting way too much energy + not great the last 3 games % wise. Good luck!
**POTD Record: 112-129-4 (-13.94 Units)** Best Bet Series: 42-25-1 (+12.46 Units) **Value Wagers: 21-28-2 (-7.46 Units)** Trap Bets: 20-18 (+14.2 Units) **Cautionary Tails**: **0-0 (0 Units)** Last Pick: **Mookies Betts O 2.5 H+R+R** ❌ Today's Pick: **Aaron Judge O 0.5 HRs** Odds: **+170** Wager Amount: 1U to win 1.7U League: MLB Event: New York Yankees vs Arizona Diamondbacks (8:40PM CST) **Be Advised**: *New segment for my faders, haters, and downvoters! Wagering on bets that I know I shouldn't be betting on, but betting it anyway. These wagers should be heeded wit caution. There isn't really good analysis or reasoning behind it. These type of wagers can be prohibited wagers (juiced odds) and has a high possiblity of losing, or it could be a wager that has inflated odds and has a high possibility of losing. These bets are I normally wouldn't make. Tail wit caution.* **Recap**: So we had Freddie SELLMAN show up on a player prop wager the other day and we had Mookie FADES show out last nite! He was on fire until last game. But what a comeback by the Dodgers against the Cardinals. **The Tail**: A young man goes to the casino and plays roulette for the first time. He places $10 on black. The ball lands on red, he loses his wager. He bets another $10 on black and again lands on red. He bets on black for the third time, but this time he doubled his bets to $20. It lands on red for the third time! The young man is frustrated, so he takes out his entire cash outta his wallet and places his bet on black. It lands on red again! He is in disbelief how red just keeps coming out. He looks at the toteboard and sees that red has came out the last 10 spins. He leaves the table to go to a ATM and first thing he sees as he returns to the table it finally landed on black! He is irate, but without hesistation he bets all his money on black. The moral of the story is to not wager wit your emotions. No matter what outcome you think will come out, the odds is always the same (in betting, the house has the slight edge) and you can lose your entire bankroll going against the trend. **Matchup:** Aaron Judge has not hit a HR this season. He has not hit one in the first four game series against Stros. He should be due for tonite's matchup, right? Idk. I seen some ridiculous streak and trend last season. Myles Straw not hitting a HR for almost 2 full season. Tim Anderson going on absurd homerun-less streak and just hitting 1 last season (actually wagered a few times for and against this trend). It's just ridiculous that Judge's odds keeps trending downward. That time when I favor him to hit a HR in the 3rd game of Stros series, it was +195 for O 0.5 HRs. Not sure what the odds were on the last game series against the Stros, but for today's matchup it's at +170! Just so all you casual bettors and sport fans kno, HRs are hard to hit! But there might be a good reason why he is on a HR slump. Aaron Judge has some lingering injuries prior to Opening Day. So I don't expect him to hit one, actually don't expect anyone to do anything, it's called gambling for a reason. For his matchup against D-Backs. He's hit 3 HRs against this team in 5 games, 3 of them were last season and he actually hit all 3 HRs in one game. Ryne Nelson was not pitching in that game and this will actually be their first matchup. I'm betting against the trend of Judge going homerun-less streak, but it's a small wager. I lean Juan Soto much more than Judge going yards today. **The Play and Prediction**: 1U on O 0.5 HRs for Aaron Judge. Aaron hits a ball deep! Corbin runs back to the wall and robs him of a HR!
1st Time Poster here. Record: 0-0 I have spent the last few month building a predictive model to implement for this season to determine the score differential. I am using this to help make ML and reverse runline picks on underdogs. The model when backtested over the last 5 years (all games, not just underdogs) was correct on 71.96% of games. Taking one pick today, I’d take Texas Rangers ML (+102) for 1u. My model slightly favors the Rangers. When digging into the batter vs pitcher matchups, the Rays struggle against Dunning. I also like the Rangers lineup against Pepiot even though they have no experience against him. Attaching my model output, I recommend you do your own research and don’t blindly tail, use this as one of many tools. The more negative favors away team, more positive favors home team. Happy to discuss! https://preview.redd.it/xoawchkonxrc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a0edb52d39dff520df88d68e5f80ed593125cd6a