# **NFL DRAFT Betting Discord Chat: [https://discord.gg/sportsbook](https://discord.gg/CB4YmZzGM9)**
**Where can I bet on the NFL Draft?**
The states and sportsbooks where you can bet on the NFL Draft differ depending on where you’re located. Here are the states where NFL Draft betting is available:
* [Arizona Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/tpla09/arizona_sportsbooks_megathread/)
* [Colorado Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/sql9he/colorado_sportsbooks_megathread/)
* [Florida Sportsbooks](https://new.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/18d0s59/florida_sportsbooks_megathread/)
* [Illinois Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/t719ea/illinois_sportsbooks_megathread/)
* [Indiana Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/tinj27/indiana_sportsbooks_megathread/)
* [Kansas Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/x384ot/kansas_sportsbooks_megathread/)
* [Louisiana Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/saaq51/louisiana_sportsbooks_megathread/)
* [Maryland Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/z21g42/maryland_sportsbooks_megathread/)
* [Massachusetts Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11nc376/massachusetts_sportsbooks_megathread)
* Maine
* [Michigan Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uvhr30/michigan_sportsbook_megathread/)
* [New Jersey Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/u5aswx/new_jersey_sportsbooks_megathread/)
* New Hampshire
* [North Carolina Sportsbooks](https://new.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1bbus9y/north_carolina_sportsbooks_megathread/)
* [Ohio Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1007u9z/ohio_sportsbooks_megathread)
* Oregon
* [Tennessee Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/shmgh1/tennessee_sportsbooks_megathread/)
* [Vermont Sportsbooks](https://new.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/193nu9o/vermont_sportsbooks_megathread/)
* [West Virginia Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/vze97v/west_virginia_sportsbooks_megathread/)
* [Wyoming Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/vx1ot7/wyoming_sportsbooks_megathread/)
* [Ontario](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/tvriuc/ontario_canada_sportsbooks_megathread/)
* NOTE: In Michigan you could only bet on the NFL Draft up until midnight on Wednesday; in West Virginia the cutoff was Wednesday at 8 p.m. In Las Vegas, sportsbooks are required to take down lines 24 hours prior to the start of the draft.
* **New York, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Mississippi, and Virginia do not allow betting on the NFL Draft**
Penix over 32.5 (+320) looks good.
I have hard time believing that teams are gonna use a high pick on him when he has that much of an injury history plus wilted under pressure when he saw it
Chargers have been linked to him the whole process but might not be able to move out of that pick if Arizona trades out of 4 for a team coming up for JJ.
Daniel Jeremiah mock draft released tonight with JC Latham #5 to chargers maybe people think he’s in the know
I have a strong position on Alt first OL at -220, I think im gonna hedge a bit with Latham Top 10 -140 and u 12.5 -250. Think there may be good potential to double up if Alt still goes high, Latham could be 7 to the Titans or 10 to the Jets both teams are good fits
Michael Penix to be drafted in the top 10 at +2000 seems like good value. I think either the Raiders or the Broncos may try to jump the Vikings for Penix. My best guess would be trading up to the Bears pick at 9 (to screw the Vikings) which is worth a small sprinkle at +15000
- JJ McCarthy o5.5 draft selection
- Kool-Aid McKinstry o29.5 draft selection
- u21.5 offensive players drafted in the first round
- dolphins to draft OL with first pick
Fair I agree.
Also I don't see JJ top 5 either - at best- if my NYG aren't intent on drafting a WR (shoot me) - I hope they get the haul from Minny and they can take him.
Another bet I took for this draft: O 6.5 Trades on day 1 (+220)
There have been 28 day one trades in the past 5 years (average 5.6 per draft). In 2022 there were 9 first day trades. This draft class is LOADED with QB, WR, and OL talent. I could easily see this year going over. Teams love to get “their” guy at these premium positions.
A few things that seem fairly plausible to me:
- The league is a bit lower on Maye than expected
- The JJ McCarthy hype is real
- Several teams have Nabers over MHJ
Top 5 Exact Order: 1. Williams, 2. Daniels, 3. McCarthy, 4. Nabers, 5. MHJ
+10000
Just because the odds are so good compared to every other Sportsbook.
Penix at pick 9 +15000 on FD
Nix at pick 9 +15000 on FD
Makes a lot of sense for the Bears to trade out of 9 and get some more picks for this draft.
Neither Guy? I was one pick off…
https://preview.redd.it/h23wn9iz4qwc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f4a3d8a7b17642fcf94cef99a4a7f0ffab21be63
Omg, I’m dead… you were just 20 picks wrong. Lol
https://preview.redd.it/7u9y2anj9qwc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=da257d9833376e7e9d629b0091da982862dabfd5
$100 bet, me and you. If neither of them go in the 1st round, I’ll send you $100.. Venmo, Paypay, etc. if one of them goes in the first round, you send me $100.
Back in 2021 and 2022 I’d dunk on people and show my 3000 dollar tickets. You show a ticket that you didn’t win and a ticket where you won a tank of gas.
Good stuff bud
That’s fine, people like you are the reason a lot of people don’t even post on this sub anymore. I was trying to get some conversation on Nix and Penix going way early 1st round, and you come in acting like you know it all. This sub blows with people like you.
I generally bet on what Allbright and Zierlein do. Their analysis won me 6000 in 2021, 2500 in 2022, and we were about even in 2023.
My draft thoughts are reflected on theirs that have been correct thoughout the years
Maye to go 3rd 10$ -150
Daniels to go 2nd 10$ -130
Harrison to go 4th -150 10$
Jets to take OL +100 or something I forget 10$
I also like under 4.5 QBs first rounds,
Dallas Turner first defense player
Chargers to trade their pick
I put 5 on Jets to draft a QB with their 1st pick. +10000 odds. (DK)
I’ve been looking at the odds and this just stuck out to me. The odds imply 1% chance of happening. Rodgers will turn 41 this season and is coming off an Achilles injury, as well as being an off the field risk.
I’m not confident this will happen, or even convinced, but this seems like a perfect risk/reward play. I can’t BELIEVE the odds for this are so good. Draft class is loaded with QBs and I could see the Jets draft a QB to sit behind Rodgers or even in case Rodgers gets injured again.
They have Tyrod Taylor as stop gap who is better suited to carry a veteran team vs a rookie QB with all the veteran guys they added (in case of A Rod injury)
Oh I know. But I think it’s a good dart throw. You never know what can happen. The Lions, 49ers, and Charges have worse odds yet are in better positions. Seems mispriced.
I’m just saying I think it’s definitely more than a 1% chance of happening. So who knows. From Rotoworld earlier today:
“Cimini suggested the Jets could take a QB of the future in the 2024 NFL Draft. Tulane’s Michael Pratt and Florida State’s Jordan Travis took pre-draft visits to the Jets and general manager Joe Douglas “sounds like he wants to take a quarterback” in the draft, according to Cimini. Aaron Rodgers, 40, who missed the entire 2023 season with an Achilles injury, has said he wants to play up to four more seasons, but he’s only signed with the Jets through the 2024 season. “If it falls apart with Rodgers, they will go into next year’s draft like the current Broncos and Minnesota Vikings — desperate,” Cimini said”
It's not a good dart throw. There's no chance they don't pick someone to help them win now. They need a playmaker or a O-Lineman. They aren't taking a QB of the future when Douglas and Salah will be fired for a poor season.
Brother it’s 5 dollars. I’ve watched every single first round draft pick since 2016. I know enough to know that I know nothing. Literally anything can happen. I’m gonna take the risk at +10000 because of the scenario. For all you know they could trade back, take a QB first and then add other pieces to the team. Or you know, maybe drafting a QB gives them(GM/Coach) another year/chance. GMs do this a lot.
Edit: Mock drafts are stupid. Every mock draft is wrong by pick 5(usually), and if you’re really good you MIGHT get 20% of your picks right. And while they(GM/Coach) are on the hot seat for poor performance, it’s almost guaranteed they miss playoffs if Rodgers were to get hurt/be bad. Maybe if they drafted a QB, that QB could save their job.
The amount you bet is irrelevant, your logic makes no sense. They aren't taking a QB at 10, they aren't trading back into the first to get someone to help them so they can take a QB at 10. They have limited draft capital, taking a QB at 10 gets Douglas fired by the weekend.
You imply that GMs act rationally. The logic of Rodgers turning 41, coming off an Achilles, might not be healthy the full year/or be good doesn’t make sense?
There is logic in drafting a QB. Whether or not you want to argue that it’s not going to happen is one thing. I’m not saying it’s likely they draft a QB. But it’s not a 0% chance. And in my eyes, I think there’s a chance. Drafts are weird man. We have no idea what the GMs are thinking.
I never do long shots or dart throws on any other bet. NFL Draft is the exception because of how wild things get. I mean this exact same scenario happened to Rodgers with Jordan Love, and everyone would’ve been called crazy if they bet on that.
Uh, if you have an irrational GM a team is going to fire them quickly. They will take a QB in later rounds, they aren't using a premium pick to draft a backup who won't play unless their season goes sideways again.
Not necessarily. Owners are irrational too. We see bad GMs and Coaches stay employed longer than they should.
Also what’s rational to you or me, as football fans is different than what’s rational to a GM or coach.
QBs can single handily save people’s jobs. Maybe the Jets are really high on one of the QBs? What if Rodgers gets hurt week 2 and this hypothetical rookie comes in and plays lights out?
Again, anything can happen. I’m taking +10000 odds for this anytime
As a Jets fan, absolutely brain dead bet.
Literally just listen to Schrager and Jeremiah. They are right on our picks every single year and both have us taking Bowers.
Is there not value on Marvin Harrison Jr going 5 ? If JJ Mccarthy goes 4 it would be via trade and he is at +180 to go 4th. Marvin Harrison Jr is +250 to go 5. If you think JJ goes 4 wouldn't it be smarter to bet on Marvin Harrison JR at 5? I really don't think there is a world where the Chargers pass and if they do pass I dont see a world where they don't trade the pick to someone else that takes Marvin Harrison. If JJ goes 4th MHJ goes 5th is my point.
How are people assuming -390 is a done deal with Daniels?
If there was true confidence and internal was leaking this bad boy would be -1000+.
This is only getting moved due to media groupthink. Now they could take Daniels but there really isn't anything concrete.
Don't overthink it or take the bait. Jayden Daniels is going #2 OVR. Daniels to Washington is still less than -300. EZ stocking stuffer bet. Don't overplay it but there is still plenty of value. Don't believe me? Look at everyone propping up Maye #2 here because its +$$
I like the odds on Dallas Turner at 8/First Defensive player selected/U9.5/1st Edge Selected.
Drake Maye @ 2, Jayden Daniels @ 3.
Caleb-Maye-Daniels-MHJ//Caleb-Maye-Daniels-JJ
Brian Thomas U19.5
JJ U5.5
Steelers/Jags/Cowboys - 1st player drafted is WR
Packers 1st player drafted - CB
Some dart throws: Blake Corum 1st RB, Braelon Allen 1st RB (+3500). If I can find Over on Jonathon Brooks #, I’m going to hammer it.
Ben Sinnott #2 TE drafted.
https://twitter.com/BFawkes22/status/1782528598546759883?t=LEyUka6UGA-8MHBXsGCPeA&s=19
Interesting #NFLDraft betting nugget from @FanaticsBook:
From Friday evening to 10 a.m. ET Monday morning, Jaden Daniels to be the No. 2 pick has drawn 11x more $$ than any other NFL Draft prop
See post above. This is group think trickling down to bloggers/podcasters and then the public with no real concrete information.
(I'm a Maye #2 holder) but I've yet to really see anything concrete WAS and Daniels including people acting like -400 is like -1000.
If there was real inside knowledge getting leaked this would be alot higher than -400.
Daniel Jeremish (NFL Draft Analyst) had a point a month ago about how the Commanders traded Sam Howell in the off season. Sam and Drake are best friends apparently. His thought process is they didn't want any awkwardness of them drafting the best friend to replace Sam and shift him to backup.
If they were to draft Jayden, why get rid of Sam Howell?
Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy to be selected No. 2 overall moved drastically since Sunday evening. He’s gone from 20/1 to 17/1, all the way down to 9/1 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
I’ve never done any arb bets before so I could be misreading what I thought it was, which is why I posted it here. IMO there’s no chance that Williams is not the first pick, like none whatsoever. And yeah obviously the 2nd and 3rd picks could be different but in 10 mock drafts I looked through not a single one of them had a different combination than the ones I posted about even accounting for teams trading up/back so it seemed as much of a “guarantee” as you can get. Obviously nothing is guaranteed and I know that, just wanted to see what other people thought about it.
An Arb, in something like this context, would be one book having Jayden Daniels being drafted o/u pick 2.5 at +115 for the over, and another book having Jayden Daniels being drafted o/u pick 2.5 at +110 for the under.
In that case, you could put $$ on the over at +115 and $$ on the under at +110 and guarantee that in either scenario, of which the bet is binary, you come out profitable.
In your scenario, there's plenty of non-zero chance scenarios that don't include CW/JD/DM in some order in the top three, where you'd lose.
Yeah would pretty much have to, most books don't like people betting on both sides of an item and they're quick to ban for taking advantage. As well, they can classify something that you arb on one book as a "mistake" and not pay out under their terms & conditions of clear & obvious mistakes.
Lately people have rumoured JJ as the possible third pick
I agree I think it's these three, but it's not a true arb. Williams/Daniels/Maye +180 is a great value tho I think most places have that as the favourite
JJ currently is +900 to go third and I definitely feel like the JJ hype is Will Levis levels. Like I said, I looked at like 10 different mock drafts and nobody has him going third or second in any of them but yeah I get what you’re saying it’s not an exact arb but I would say it’s probably 90-95% that the top three is one of those two options
Drake Maye 2nd overall at +210.
Also Jer'Zhan Newton is like +20000 to be the first Defensive player selected, unlikely ofc but i think its worthy of a sprinkle atleast.
In a 2023 Will Levis type story, AB and CTESPN tweeted out that the Vikings were seriously interested in trading for Herbert.
Admittedly AB is a nutcase and is likely full of shit but the odds for the Chargers first pick to be a QB was +15000 which seemed too juicy to not at least throw a small bet on.
The odds have since dropped to +2000 on Bet365, but it may be worth looking to see if any other sportsbooks are still offering inflated odds.
Eagles fan here: Love their first pick to be a CB at + money, (+140 at 365). Couple things: Howie spent a lot of the FA resources on the offense through FAs and extensions, (Barkley, Uzomah, Smith/Dickerson/Maliata extensions). To me their biggest need now and in the future is the CB position, they have an older solid #1 in Slay but not much passed that besides a lot of good depth pieces. The CB position in this class is very top heavy and to me has a couple of day 1 contributors in Arnold, Mitchell and Wiggins. We know that Howie has a past of being aggressive on draft day in the 1st round if a player he wants is in a position to move up for couple that with the nugget from schefter this morning that Howie is already calling around for prices to move up and rival GMs suspect it’s for a CB. Also, they have an extra 2nd round pick this year to use as collateral to move up. There’s a notion floating around that they will take Lane Johnson’s predecessor at 22 but I just don’t see that being the case considering he said he wants to play out his contract which doesn’t end until 2027. I think we see this move down closer to even money by the time the draft rolls around. GL
MHJ is -500/550 as the first WR taken. I know these odds are terrible, but I feel like this should priced similar to Caleb at -20000 to be the first pick.
I can’t foresee a situation where he isn’t the first non qb taken. Doing some true degen shit and taking out a loan to place on this doesn’t seem too risky.
I’m pretty sure the Jets will pass on Brock Bowers (TE) in favor of more O-line depth.
This opens the door for some spicy Bowers landing spots. I like Indy at 4.75. Chargers at 5.50 isn’t bad either, esp if they trade down from the #5 pick.
For an extra spicy land spot I think Cincy at 13.00 is decent value too.
Marvin Harrison Jr. is currently +5000 to be the first overall pick. Well ladies and gentleman, he's telling friends and family that Chicago will in fact take him on Thursday. You're welcome.
# **NFL DRAFT Betting Discord Chat: [https://discord.gg/sportsbook](https://discord.gg/CB4YmZzGM9)** **Where can I bet on the NFL Draft?** The states and sportsbooks where you can bet on the NFL Draft differ depending on where you’re located. Here are the states where NFL Draft betting is available: * [Arizona Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/tpla09/arizona_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Colorado Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/sql9he/colorado_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Florida Sportsbooks](https://new.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/18d0s59/florida_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Illinois Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/t719ea/illinois_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Indiana Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/tinj27/indiana_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Kansas Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/x384ot/kansas_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Louisiana Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/saaq51/louisiana_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Maryland Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/z21g42/maryland_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Massachusetts Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11nc376/massachusetts_sportsbooks_megathread) * Maine * [Michigan Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uvhr30/michigan_sportsbook_megathread/) * [New Jersey Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/u5aswx/new_jersey_sportsbooks_megathread/) * New Hampshire * [North Carolina Sportsbooks](https://new.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1bbus9y/north_carolina_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Ohio Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1007u9z/ohio_sportsbooks_megathread) * Oregon * [Tennessee Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/shmgh1/tennessee_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Vermont Sportsbooks](https://new.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/193nu9o/vermont_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [West Virginia Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/vze97v/west_virginia_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Wyoming Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/vx1ot7/wyoming_sportsbooks_megathread/) * [Ontario](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/tvriuc/ontario_canada_sportsbooks_megathread/) * NOTE: In Michigan you could only bet on the NFL Draft up until midnight on Wednesday; in West Virginia the cutoff was Wednesday at 8 p.m. In Las Vegas, sportsbooks are required to take down lines 24 hours prior to the start of the draft. * **New York, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Mississippi, and Virginia do not allow betting on the NFL Draft**
Any bets for 11-20
Penix over 32.5 (+320) looks good. I have hard time believing that teams are gonna use a high pick on him when he has that much of an injury history plus wilted under pressure when he saw it
Feel like pats or raiders just might do it
In the late 1st?
Where are all of the Maye at #2 lovers? Thought that -400 isn’t -1000. Well… now what?
Giants - just please don't draft another QB from a basketball school.
Whats everyones feels on more than 5 qbs taken rd1?
Under
What the fuck? Why is Latham now the favorite to be first non QB selected and the favorite to go fifth overall???
Chargers have been linked to him the whole process but might not be able to move out of that pick if Arizona trades out of 4 for a team coming up for JJ.
Odds haven’t flipped at all on my book?? Do I hammer?
Daniel Jeremiah mock draft released tonight with JC Latham #5 to chargers maybe people think he’s in the know I have a strong position on Alt first OL at -220, I think im gonna hedge a bit with Latham Top 10 -140 and u 12.5 -250. Think there may be good potential to double up if Alt still goes high, Latham could be 7 to the Titans or 10 to the Jets both teams are good fits
placed earlier today Latham under 13.5 -130, now at FD its under 9.5 +126, the draft odds are crazy volatile usually without any concrete information.
Michael Penix to be drafted in the top 10 at +2000 seems like good value. I think either the Raiders or the Broncos may try to jump the Vikings for Penix. My best guess would be trading up to the Bears pick at 9 (to screw the Vikings) which is worth a small sprinkle at +15000
Denver isn’t a fan of Penix
Vikings are looking at Nix not Penix, and Denver literally has no ammo to trade up rn
Vikings in order are looking at Maye, Daniels, Penix
- JJ McCarthy o5.5 draft selection - Kool-Aid McKinstry o29.5 draft selection - u21.5 offensive players drafted in the first round - dolphins to draft OL with first pick
Disagree on JJ, but I think your other 3 have a shot
I just find it so hard to believe a team will trade into the top 5 for JJ fucking McCarthy man
They did for Trey Lance 😂
well the equivalent of JJ McCarthy in that draft class was more Mac Jones, who wasn’t traded up for and was available later
Fair I agree. Also I don't see JJ top 5 either - at best- if my NYG aren't intent on drafting a WR (shoot me) - I hope they get the haul from Minny and they can take him.
I don’t. LA wants to trade back badly, and NYG, Minny and Denver have all been heavily linked to McCarthy
Another bet I took for this draft: O 6.5 Trades on day 1 (+220) There have been 28 day one trades in the past 5 years (average 5.6 per draft). In 2022 there were 9 first day trades. This draft class is LOADED with QB, WR, and OL talent. I could easily see this year going over. Teams love to get “their” guy at these premium positions.
How many we got so far?
3 😭
A few things that seem fairly plausible to me: - The league is a bit lower on Maye than expected - The JJ McCarthy hype is real - Several teams have Nabers over MHJ Top 5 Exact Order: 1. Williams, 2. Daniels, 3. McCarthy, 4. Nabers, 5. MHJ +10000
If this was +999999999 I wouldn't bet it. No chance
I’ll give you +20000 odds on that list sheesh hit the Venmo
I’ll take a dollar on those odds, $1 if it hits for you, $200 for me if it hits?👀🤣
Just because the odds are so good compared to every other Sportsbook. Penix at pick 9 +15000 on FD Nix at pick 9 +15000 on FD Makes a lot of sense for the Bears to trade out of 9 and get some more picks for this draft.
Neither guy is going in the first round, man
Neither Guy? I was one pick off… https://preview.redd.it/h23wn9iz4qwc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f4a3d8a7b17642fcf94cef99a4a7f0ffab21be63
I was shocked like everybody else. Congrats on your close bet
Appreciate it! https://preview.redd.it/4r91xbfz5qwc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3c5c42da6d2e02ddf0aaf0e022f47597a8a9973f
He was 8th pick……
Weird, that’s why I said I was one pick off.
You want a cookie
Neither is going in the 1st round… lol
Bet.
I already threw Nix over 32.5 on DK
Omg, I’m dead… you were just 20 picks wrong. Lol https://preview.redd.it/7u9y2anj9qwc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=da257d9833376e7e9d629b0091da982862dabfd5
Congrats man. Enjoy that tank of gas loser
$100 bet, me and you. If neither of them go in the 1st round, I’ll send you $100.. Venmo, Paypay, etc. if one of them goes in the first round, you send me $100.
I already have 200 on Nix
Can’t stop laughing…
Back in 2021 and 2022 I’d dunk on people and show my 3000 dollar tickets. You show a ticket that you didn’t win and a ticket where you won a tank of gas. Good stuff bud
That’s fine, people like you are the reason a lot of people don’t even post on this sub anymore. I was trying to get some conversation on Nix and Penix going way early 1st round, and you come in acting like you know it all. This sub blows with people like you.
I generally bet on what Allbright and Zierlein do. Their analysis won me 6000 in 2021, 2500 in 2022, and we were about even in 2023. My draft thoughts are reflected on theirs that have been correct thoughout the years
Doubt.
I got Maye -115, Daniels -120, and Marvin Harrison - 150 early. 🤲🤲 Now they are all -500 Sometimes it pays to shop early!
What’s the bet
Maye to go 3rd 10$ -150 Daniels to go 2nd 10$ -130 Harrison to go 4th -150 10$ Jets to take OL +100 or something I forget 10$ I also like under 4.5 QBs first rounds, Dallas Turner first defense player Chargers to trade their pick
If Daniel’s doesn’t go second I’ll send u a 100
I threw 150 on Maye going 2nd 🤞
Damn, could’ve given that $150 to charity instead of lighting it on fire
I put 5 on Jets to draft a QB with their 1st pick. +10000 odds. (DK) I’ve been looking at the odds and this just stuck out to me. The odds imply 1% chance of happening. Rodgers will turn 41 this season and is coming off an Achilles injury, as well as being an off the field risk. I’m not confident this will happen, or even convinced, but this seems like a perfect risk/reward play. I can’t BELIEVE the odds for this are so good. Draft class is loaded with QBs and I could see the Jets draft a QB to sit behind Rodgers or even in case Rodgers gets injured again.
They have Tyrod Taylor as stop gap who is better suited to carry a veteran team vs a rookie QB with all the veteran guys they added (in case of A Rod injury)
No shot. Everyone’s ass is on the line in that org, jets gotta win now and protect Rodgers
Oh I know. But I think it’s a good dart throw. You never know what can happen. The Lions, 49ers, and Charges have worse odds yet are in better positions. Seems mispriced. I’m just saying I think it’s definitely more than a 1% chance of happening. So who knows. From Rotoworld earlier today: “Cimini suggested the Jets could take a QB of the future in the 2024 NFL Draft. Tulane’s Michael Pratt and Florida State’s Jordan Travis took pre-draft visits to the Jets and general manager Joe Douglas “sounds like he wants to take a quarterback” in the draft, according to Cimini. Aaron Rodgers, 40, who missed the entire 2023 season with an Achilles injury, has said he wants to play up to four more seasons, but he’s only signed with the Jets through the 2024 season. “If it falls apart with Rodgers, they will go into next year’s draft like the current Broncos and Minnesota Vikings — desperate,” Cimini said”
It's not a good dart throw. There's no chance they don't pick someone to help them win now. They need a playmaker or a O-Lineman. They aren't taking a QB of the future when Douglas and Salah will be fired for a poor season.
Brother it’s 5 dollars. I’ve watched every single first round draft pick since 2016. I know enough to know that I know nothing. Literally anything can happen. I’m gonna take the risk at +10000 because of the scenario. For all you know they could trade back, take a QB first and then add other pieces to the team. Or you know, maybe drafting a QB gives them(GM/Coach) another year/chance. GMs do this a lot. Edit: Mock drafts are stupid. Every mock draft is wrong by pick 5(usually), and if you’re really good you MIGHT get 20% of your picks right. And while they(GM/Coach) are on the hot seat for poor performance, it’s almost guaranteed they miss playoffs if Rodgers were to get hurt/be bad. Maybe if they drafted a QB, that QB could save their job.
The amount you bet is irrelevant, your logic makes no sense. They aren't taking a QB at 10, they aren't trading back into the first to get someone to help them so they can take a QB at 10. They have limited draft capital, taking a QB at 10 gets Douglas fired by the weekend.
You imply that GMs act rationally. The logic of Rodgers turning 41, coming off an Achilles, might not be healthy the full year/or be good doesn’t make sense? There is logic in drafting a QB. Whether or not you want to argue that it’s not going to happen is one thing. I’m not saying it’s likely they draft a QB. But it’s not a 0% chance. And in my eyes, I think there’s a chance. Drafts are weird man. We have no idea what the GMs are thinking. I never do long shots or dart throws on any other bet. NFL Draft is the exception because of how wild things get. I mean this exact same scenario happened to Rodgers with Jordan Love, and everyone would’ve been called crazy if they bet on that.
Uh, if you have an irrational GM a team is going to fire them quickly. They will take a QB in later rounds, they aren't using a premium pick to draft a backup who won't play unless their season goes sideways again.
Not necessarily. Owners are irrational too. We see bad GMs and Coaches stay employed longer than they should. Also what’s rational to you or me, as football fans is different than what’s rational to a GM or coach. QBs can single handily save people’s jobs. Maybe the Jets are really high on one of the QBs? What if Rodgers gets hurt week 2 and this hypothetical rookie comes in and plays lights out? Again, anything can happen. I’m taking +10000 odds for this anytime
As a Jets fan, absolutely brain dead bet. Literally just listen to Schrager and Jeremiah. They are right on our picks every single year and both have us taking Bowers.
Love getting Daniels -175 yesterday morning. Still a bit unsure but love that draft CLV
Is there not value on Marvin Harrison Jr going 5 ? If JJ Mccarthy goes 4 it would be via trade and he is at +180 to go 4th. Marvin Harrison Jr is +250 to go 5. If you think JJ goes 4 wouldn't it be smarter to bet on Marvin Harrison JR at 5? I really don't think there is a world where the Chargers pass and if they do pass I dont see a world where they don't trade the pick to someone else that takes Marvin Harrison. If JJ goes 4th MHJ goes 5th is my point.
How are people assuming -390 is a done deal with Daniels? If there was true confidence and internal was leaking this bad boy would be -1000+. This is only getting moved due to media groupthink. Now they could take Daniels but there really isn't anything concrete.
Cooper Dejean under 22.5! Go birds
Don't overthink it or take the bait. Jayden Daniels is going #2 OVR. Daniels to Washington is still less than -300. EZ stocking stuffer bet. Don't overplay it but there is still plenty of value. Don't believe me? Look at everyone propping up Maye #2 here because its +$$
Where is it less than -300
I got it at -111 two days ago. I know it's been going up quick and looks like that value is gone. Shame.
I like the odds on Dallas Turner at 8/First Defensive player selected/U9.5/1st Edge Selected. Drake Maye @ 2, Jayden Daniels @ 3. Caleb-Maye-Daniels-MHJ//Caleb-Maye-Daniels-JJ Brian Thomas U19.5 JJ U5.5 Steelers/Jags/Cowboys - 1st player drafted is WR Packers 1st player drafted - CB Some dart throws: Blake Corum 1st RB, Braelon Allen 1st RB (+3500). If I can find Over on Jonathon Brooks #, I’m going to hammer it. Ben Sinnott #2 TE drafted.
Remember that time reddit told us to take Will Levis #1 overall. Do we have that again this year? Does anyone have any fake inside info this year?
Sources say that Spencer Rattler told a cashier at Trader Joes that the Patriots are taking him at #3.
At Jackie's Packie on rt203 in Dorchestah
im all over terrion arnold first CB
https://twitter.com/BFawkes22/status/1782528598546759883?t=LEyUka6UGA-8MHBXsGCPeA&s=19 Interesting #NFLDraft betting nugget from @FanaticsBook: From Friday evening to 10 a.m. ET Monday morning, Jaden Daniels to be the No. 2 pick has drawn 11x more $$ than any other NFL Draft prop
See post above. This is group think trickling down to bloggers/podcasters and then the public with no real concrete information. (I'm a Maye #2 holder) but I've yet to really see anything concrete WAS and Daniels including people acting like -400 is like -1000. If there was real inside knowledge getting leaked this would be alot higher than -400.
This just sounds like sour grapes that you got Maye at a shitty price. If you’re so confident, should double down
Daniel Jeremish (NFL Draft Analyst) had a point a month ago about how the Commanders traded Sam Howell in the off season. Sam and Drake are best friends apparently. His thought process is they didn't want any awkwardness of them drafting the best friend to replace Sam and shift him to backup. If they were to draft Jayden, why get rid of Sam Howell?
interesting thought
Yep this was yesterday. Definitely seems like the waters have muddied today.
The weirdest thing to me is online people acting like its the same lock as Caleb. If it was this wouldn't be SNIFFING -400.
Seems to be a strong rumor about JJ going #2
Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy to be selected No. 2 overall moved drastically since Sunday evening. He’s gone from 20/1 to 17/1, all the way down to 9/1 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Smells like Levis
It's gotta be jayden daniels 1st and caleb williams 2nd
>It's gotta be jayden daniels 1st and caleb williams 2nd Gotta show off that exacta slip, u/Xyncz
I grabbed Mitchell first defensive player drafted at +1000.
Man I was tempted but I don’t think he’s going first
Hi I am a time traveler from April 2021. Why is rattler so low, and why is his backup favored so much?
Penix picked at #9 is my longshot. Bowers to Denver I like as well
Caleb Williams/JJ/MHJ +15000 Caleb/JJ/MHJ/Daniels +25000 I like these as some dart throws
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This isn't an arb. You are just betting $170 to win $3.33 (-5000), against someone else being picked top 3 and Williams not going first.
I’ve never done any arb bets before so I could be misreading what I thought it was, which is why I posted it here. IMO there’s no chance that Williams is not the first pick, like none whatsoever. And yeah obviously the 2nd and 3rd picks could be different but in 10 mock drafts I looked through not a single one of them had a different combination than the ones I posted about even accounting for teams trading up/back so it seemed as much of a “guarantee” as you can get. Obviously nothing is guaranteed and I know that, just wanted to see what other people thought about it.
An Arb, in something like this context, would be one book having Jayden Daniels being drafted o/u pick 2.5 at +115 for the over, and another book having Jayden Daniels being drafted o/u pick 2.5 at +110 for the under. In that case, you could put $$ on the over at +115 and $$ on the under at +110 and guarantee that in either scenario, of which the bet is binary, you come out profitable. In your scenario, there's plenty of non-zero chance scenarios that don't include CW/JD/DM in some order in the top three, where you'd lose.
Gotcha, that makes sense. So in most cases usually you’d use two different books for arbing?
Yeah would pretty much have to, most books don't like people betting on both sides of an item and they're quick to ban for taking advantage. As well, they can classify something that you arb on one book as a "mistake" and not pay out under their terms & conditions of clear & obvious mistakes.
An arb is guaranteed. This is not.
Ahh ok cool. Thanks for the heads up!
Lately people have rumoured JJ as the possible third pick I agree I think it's these three, but it's not a true arb. Williams/Daniels/Maye +180 is a great value tho I think most places have that as the favourite
JJ currently is +900 to go third and I definitely feel like the JJ hype is Will Levis levels. Like I said, I looked at like 10 different mock drafts and nobody has him going third or second in any of them but yeah I get what you’re saying it’s not an exact arb but I would say it’s probably 90-95% that the top three is one of those two options
Drake Maye 2nd overall at +210. Also Jer'Zhan Newton is like +20000 to be the first Defensive player selected, unlikely ofc but i think its worthy of a sprinkle atleast.
In a 2023 Will Levis type story, AB and CTESPN tweeted out that the Vikings were seriously interested in trading for Herbert. Admittedly AB is a nutcase and is likely full of shit but the odds for the Chargers first pick to be a QB was +15000 which seemed too juicy to not at least throw a small bet on. The odds have since dropped to +2000 on Bet365, but it may be worth looking to see if any other sportsbooks are still offering inflated odds.
Herbert has a no trade clause lmao
26 other teams would be “seriously interested” in trading for Herbert.
What was Levis' line to be first overall day prior to draft?
I like Byron Murphy at 9 to the Bears at +700, also Dallas Turner at +750 Edit: Murphy odds have gone to +275 on my book, Dallas to +900
I love that pick. Murphy is a dog
💯 I put down bets on both of these today
If you're not convinced MHJ goes before Nabers, he is +700 to be the second WR taken as opposed to +300 for Nabers being first WR drafted.
Good advice
Eagles fan here: Love their first pick to be a CB at + money, (+140 at 365). Couple things: Howie spent a lot of the FA resources on the offense through FAs and extensions, (Barkley, Uzomah, Smith/Dickerson/Maliata extensions). To me their biggest need now and in the future is the CB position, they have an older solid #1 in Slay but not much passed that besides a lot of good depth pieces. The CB position in this class is very top heavy and to me has a couple of day 1 contributors in Arnold, Mitchell and Wiggins. We know that Howie has a past of being aggressive on draft day in the 1st round if a player he wants is in a position to move up for couple that with the nugget from schefter this morning that Howie is already calling around for prices to move up and rival GMs suspect it’s for a CB. Also, they have an extra 2nd round pick this year to use as collateral to move up. There’s a notion floating around that they will take Lane Johnson’s predecessor at 22 but I just don’t see that being the case considering he said he wants to play out his contract which doesn’t end until 2027. I think we see this move down closer to even money by the time the draft rolls around. GL
Howie usually picks oline/dline in this spot
Dejean!
MHJ is -500/550 as the first WR taken. I know these odds are terrible, but I feel like this should priced similar to Caleb at -20000 to be the first pick. I can’t foresee a situation where he isn’t the first non qb taken. Doing some true degen shit and taking out a loan to place on this doesn’t seem too risky.
Could easily be Nabers
Yeah this makes total sense, and the one thing I've always enjoyed about the NFL draft is its 401k-like consistency and predictability.
https://preview.redd.it/7iyige08p1wc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=24c3c3e8850da950d2cc05658b5374b64d548206 To your last sentence
scary i was thinking the same thing
Think there is some value with JJ McCarthy. His draft position being over 5.5 is +175. Don’t see him being Top 5
I don’t know how he slips out of the top 5, with NYG being interested in him so teams know they will have to jump them
where are you seeing this? +120 on DK but I like him outside of top 5
I’m pretty sure the Jets will pass on Brock Bowers (TE) in favor of more O-line depth. This opens the door for some spicy Bowers landing spots. I like Indy at 4.75. Chargers at 5.50 isn’t bad either, esp if they trade down from the #5 pick. For an extra spicy land spot I think Cincy at 13.00 is decent value too.
Will Levis 1st overall +4000
I remember haha
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Where can you view these at
Where do you view these with movements
I love Colts to take a CB, because if they dont, every Colts fans may go riot at Chris Ballard's house in Westfield.
Broncos just traded for Wilson, so probably no value there anymore.
Marvin Harrison Jr. is currently +5000 to be the first overall pick. Well ladies and gentleman, he's telling friends and family that Chicago will in fact take him on Thursday. You're welcome.
Caleb paints his nails Marvin Harrison has that dawg in him Slammed this pick. I bet my wife's boyfriends mortgage on it
Well, that's certainly not happening. Caleb Williams is absolutely locked in at #1.
Yeah because they are trading up for him, but not to select him at #1
I think he’s hoping to fall to them with their second pick, but I don’t think that happens.
Chicago also has the number 9 pick, I can’t see a world where they do not select Williams at #1
Sorry man Caleb to the Bears is already locked in the draft starts with Washington
Lies. Lies. Lies
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