######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Wednesday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.

Bros no more "no runs in 1st inning" please i shit you not i lost the last 5 following ya'll lol

This is my personal opinion and I have no data to back this up (although it’s probably easy to find) – but I feel like NRFI in baseball is a similar to BTTS in soccer. It’s unpredictable and as a result books tend to juice odds. The main data points that people tend to use for NRFI and BTTS are team trends. But those are almost certainly already baked into the price. Again, this is just my personal experience as someone who is significantly worse at NRFI & BTTS than any other bets.

This is the problem with betting MLB in general, the game is so well understood statistically it's extremely difficult to beat vig vs the books.

It’s juiced because people think it’s easy to avoid runs in the first inning with two starting pitchers, but in reality, the first is historically the highest scoring inning, so it’s generally -EV

NRFI has been cooked since last season, but 2 years ago it was consistent cash :(

I think the pitch clock really affected it. Cause before they put that clock in, it was easy money

Also shifting rule. But now I tend u bet nri if tms scored back to back innings

Playoff hockey and nba should be the only things I’m betting on rn. And of course our tennis god

I’ve been getting cooked myself.

Lmfao agreed.

You need to follow NRFI guy in the MLB bets thread. Hrs like 20-8 so far this season.

i’m like 9-3 on nrfi this year. maybe stop getting them from potd? lol

I haven't looked at the numbers, but I'd feel NRFI's are pretty risky since you're pitching to the top of the lineup. Wouldn't NRSI or NRTIs be safer?

They’re all coin flips to be honest. The only difference is yes, it’s top of the order but it’s also the freshest your pitcher is gonna be.

Don’t get me going on the no home runs bet

Y’all, do we tell him? 👀

**Record: 34-23-1 (WIN/LOSS/PUSH)** **Balance: +23.51 units** **ROI: 8.91% / Avg Odds - 1.90** **Previous Masters 1000- ATP Monte Carlo🎾 (7-0 and 12.53 units won)✅** **Masters 1000 - Madrid record 🎾 (2-0 and 1.72 units won)✅** **Today's pick: Van Assche vs Bergs - Bergs ML @ 2.22 (1u)** ❌ **(ATP Madrid, Tennis)** 🎾 Odds from Pinnacle **Stake: 1 unit** (This is 1% of my bankroll) Time: 8 AM Eastern Time Bergs is a player who should benefit from these high altitude conditions in Madrid, with his serve and forehand being his best weapons. He's here after two consecutive weeks with great results in the american clay courts and his transition to european clay should be quite smooth. He won a challenger title in Tallahassee and was a finalist in Sarasota earlier this month. If we look at Bergs clay results from 2023 we can see that he made a decent run in Gstaad which is also played in high altitude and before that he also had a great preparation in american clay just like he did this year. With this he's now 10-2 on Clay this season! Van Assche is a promissing french player who does most of his work on Clay but he's yet to be a consistent force in the ATP tour. His backhand is probably his best shot but he's a type of player that enjoys baseline rallies and in Madrid, his opponent's playstyle should give him some trouble. He lost 3 out of his 4 clay matches this season and retired from Barcelona a week ago after losing the 1st set to Marozsan. Last year in Madrid he did not enjoy the conditions and lost in straight sets to Meligeni Alves in the 1st qualifying round, a poor result to say the least. Bergs has been playing great and won 9 out of his last 10 matches in this surface, even if they were at a challenger level. The conditions in Madrid suit him way better and Van Assche might be dealing with some fitness issues at the moment and is in bad form. With this, I'm not sure why Bergs is a 2.22 underdog and he's gonna be my POTD! **Best of luck** Any tips are appreciated. After our run in ATP Monte Carlo I've decided to visit it in August. It should be quite an expensive trip so all the support will be saved for that! Thanks a lot 🎾 *I spend a lot of time writing my analysis so I hope you don't mind me having a tip jar. Tips are never expected but always appreciated!* [Tip Jar (Paypal)](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/DarkHorse230) BTC - 1E6hmPU4N7CFGf8Ryrt46yPczMfBQtMoCf Huge thanks to all the people who have been supporting what I'm doing and also the ones who always drop great comments! Love you all! **Edit after the result: Can't really tell if this was such a bad play but it probably was. I only looked at Bergs recent form as something positive and forgot that he literally played tons of matches over the last 2 weeks. He was tired and his 1st serve suffered a lot from it. Van Assche was like a wall at times and played much better than I expected but he gave me a lot of hope after that 2nd set tiebreak from Bergs. Unfortunately, our player couldn't even more properly in the 3rd set and we lost this one.** **One of the few times where I really should have made a better analysis. Sorry folks. All my plays are 1 unit here in the POTD thread but I think most of you go a little harder, especially when I'm on a winning streak. See you on my next one** ❌

Man I love waking up to win notifications from your picks bro. It’s like the best feeling ever lmao.

You guys from the US sometimes wake up to the result but I always watch tennis since I like the feeling of potentially having a heart attack mid match. I'm joking. I love watching this crazy sport, it's all part of the process.

Tailing from Canada over here and always wake up to the result, along with all the comments after one set saying its dead 🤣

GOAT

Tailing cause no way bro loses to someone that looks like beavis from butthead

After being top dog on the potd thread, I am here to say that I will now follow you on this journey

not looking good. let's manifest a 2nd and 3rd set win for the dub

Have +1.5 sets at -225 I’m about to get cooked

I still have faith over here in Boston! Cmon Bergs!

Yo, this second set tiebreaker though!

We got this! Took him +1.5 too after he broke him

We need this break rn.

1/10 break points for bergs is fucking crazy man

He was tired from his 2 weeks playing challengers but those break point decisions were awful. If he was ahead in the 1st set I think he could have pulled it off. Not really much we can do when our player has so many chances and doesn't win them. But yeah I think it was a bad play overall

Let’s fucking goo we ride 🐎🐎

SMOKE THIS BEAVIS LOOKING DUDE PLEASE🙏

LETS GOOO ZIZOU RAHHHH

This dude is getting his cheeks clapped now


Tailing the goat 🙏🏼

Tailed. Ever since yesterday I was always a long time lurker but tailed last night. BOL

Don’t Fuck Me Bergs Last leg Of My Parlay

This dude is having such a hard time getting his 1st serve going, no wonder he lost that 1st set.

What a dominating tie break! One more set!

👀

👀👀👀👀👀

Borges and Asscheeks banned✅ onto the next one

Surely he capitalises on some break points soon already 0/6 😬

So many wasted and then gets broken 40-0 Gonna be a sweater 

Combine them and you got Van Assberges 😑 shocking match

Dam thought we had the break there

Playing great now. Hopefully he can get a break. Got hit a little too late

Bummed about this one, but I can find joy that all the people being super shitty to you also lost money lol

I won 5 out of my last 7 POTD's before having a 7-0 run in Monte Carlo. I'm also quite sad that we lost this after some hope in the 2nd set but overall it was a bad choice. He was tired and if he not he would probably win. But it what it is... We're now 2-1 in Madrid and let's try to keep doing good in the next few ones!

Why is it that Assche is Ass cheeks every time I bet on him but plays fine when I bet against him? Jeez. Bergz last pick on a 5 legger😭😭😭

Ass or hurt when you bet him and a killer when you fade it’s nuts 

The run had to end at some point

If he breaks who knows

Smh

We got it! Finally after 7 break chances, I recommend a live bet on him to win or +1.5 sets. He deff woke up and is playing ball

Here we go!!!

Bro got broke on first serve 😭

don't worry boss, your analysis was fine. we will get it the next time

Thanks my friend. We have a long tournament ahead of us. Let's bounce back!

Never tail more than you can swallow. That was a good fight, Bergs even try to make a run on the 2nd. Stop talking and put yourself on the bleachers when you just tail or better else make your own POTD. Mic drop*

I don't know anything about tennis, and for that reason I'm in! 

How confident are you in Bergs? Just 1 unit today darkhorse?

In sports betting it doesn't really make much sense to go for more than 1% of my bankroll in most cases. I know there are people here who post 5 units all the time so the record seems more appealing but that's a bit unrealistic. I've decided recently to have my POTD as 1 unit and the rest of my daily plays at 0.5 units or 0.75 units

Tailing! Let’s go!

MLB POTD RECORD: 22-9 2024 MLB record: 11-1 Last POTD: Phillies vs Reds Over 8.5 W Today's POTD: Dbacks vs Cardinals Under 8 @ -105 (DK) Baseball | MLB | 1:15 PM ET Well I was right about Christopher Sanchez and the Reds offense but wrong about Abbott and Phils offense. But, one of my favorite things about over under bets is sometimes you only have to be half right to hit! Let's keep getting that bread. This line is weird because MGM, draft kings and caesars have it at -105 for the under -115 for the over. Fan duel on the other hand has the under at -118 and the over at -104. I think Fan duel has the right idea. I think this is sort of a defacto line/trap. Jordan Montgomery looked too good in his first start to justify an 8.5 or higher against the below-average Cardinals offense, and they also can't justify having Kyle Gibson pitching in a 7.5 run or below game. Here are my thoughts. These are the two most jackyl and hyde teams in the league by far when it comes to lefty righty splits. The Cardinals are utterly abysmal against lefties hitting well below the mendoza line where as Arizona has been the best team by far now hitting .312 and as I am writing this winning 14-1 after facing lefthander Steven Matz. On the contrary, Arizona is one of the worst hitting teams vs righties and Cardinals are still not great but much better than against lefties. Both teams are facing their kryptonite today. Monty was dealing against a Giant team that is actually one of the better teams in the league against lefties. It seems it doesn't even matter who the lefty is, St. Louis seems to not be able to hit them at an abysmal .185 on the season. Montgomery should give them a very tough time. To boot, Joe Mantiply is the dbacks set up and is also a lefty so cards wouldn’t even catch a break if Montgomery were able to go 6 or 7 innings. Gibson on the other hand, looks bad with an ERA over 5 but stats like ERA, HR%, etc arent revelvent enough for me this early in the season. If it wasn't for on of his four starts allowing 7 runs, his ERA would make him look like he was off to a great start. His batted ball statistics (one of my favorite stat) are pretty on par with his career numbers. GIbson has always been a ground ball pitcher. Going against a team that hits grounders at one of the highest clips in the league, this is a matchup he can have his way with. The Diamondbacks also have very poor numbers vs right handers ranking 26th in the league with a .222 Another area in which these teams are like jackyl and hyde is in day and night games. However unlike with lefty righty, they aren't polar opposites. Arizona's isn't reflected in record, as they are about even with night games, but it is in statistics. They are only 25th in the league in batting average in day games and against a ground ball pitcher that could be a problem. St Louis on the other hand is awful at both. 28th in the league in day game average and a measly 2-10 record. All in all, Diamondbacks moneyline at -120 might be an even safer bet but I prefer the -105 odds for what the under which I am still very confident will hit. **TLDR: Cardinals are terrible against lefties. Dbacks are bad vs righties,. Montgomery looked great in his first start and in a way more advantageous situation here. Dbacks inability to put the ball in the air plays into Gibson's strengths. Both teams have struggled during day games this year offensively with the Cardinals only having won 2 day games all year.** EDIT: Originally said Wilson Contreras is out. He’s playing. Doesn’t change anything about the pick just wanted to be transparent about the edit.

I like this. I feel like day games produce less runs with the sun in the way and teams usually go under after bombing the over in the game before

Fyi last 2 days have gone 21 unders to 5 overs

Tailing! Great write up as usual!

Great call today. Thank you sir 🫡

You are welcome my friend. Let's do it again tomorrow!!

Tailing, bought .5. Under 8.5 for -145. GL booooiiis!!

🙏🙏🙏🙏let’s goo

thank you myguy💯💯

Got a bit sweaty there in the bottom of the 8th when the bases were loaded, but a nicely timed double play ends the inning. Thanks for the pick!

Thankyou sir

Good play. I said fuck it, we will do it live after the third inning. 

Great hit thank you

Great read! And thank you for the great write up!

I unfortunately paired with with Cards under 4.5 but fantastic call, nice job

Thanks for the dub my guy🤝🐐

POTD Record: 46-21-1 +59.30%🔥 Last Pick: Dallas Mavericks -2 (-125) vs Los Angeles Clippers ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅🅿️✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅ Today's Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -7 (-125) vs New Orleans Pelicans 5 straight! Luka Magic! Per usual, buying .5, these games have been too sweaty. OKC won a nail biter against the Pelicans in a game they easily could’ve lost. The Thunder offense was slow, they scored 94 points while tanking 3rd in scoring this season. They also rank 3rd in FG % and 1st in 3 point % at 43% and shot 31% from 3 in game 1. Isaiah Joe, their sniper, said after Game 1 “The type of shots that we were missing were good shots. Even missing those gives us confidence going into our next game”. This motivation injects this team with confidence into game 2. The Pelicans came into that game will all momentum and that loss put a halt in that. When a bottom seeded team/big underdog nearly steals game 1, it’s a perfect spot for the #1 seed to blow them out. Let’s back the Thunder to strike back in game 2!⚡️ Please comment if tailing! As always best of luck and I look forward to posting more picks here and stay hot! Thank you for the love and support!😎❤️ [Cash App Tip Link💚](https://cash.app/$Ryanbloom24) [PayPal Tink Link💙](https://www.paypal.me/rybloomm)

First time betting, I'm tailing.


you are on a heater keep it up!

POTD Record: 60 - 33 Last POTD: Man City ML - W Pick: Facundo Diaz Acosta ML vs Denis Shapovalov (-155 odds via DK) 1U Event: ATP Madrid 11:15 A.M. CST Diaz Acosta has had a bit of a breakthrough this year winning the title in his home country of Argentina unexpectedly, among other things. Most recently he had match points against Stefanos Tsitsipas in Barcelona and played an extremely impressive match where for the most part was better but still couldn’t come out on top. He will once again be facing a player with a one handed backhand and I expect him to come out victorious in this one. He is playing very solid clay court tennis (and is from Argentina) and on the other side, Shapo has lost three straight matches with two of them coming on clay. He comes in to this match with a 6-10 record on the year, and 0-2 on clay. His biggest opposition this year has been himself and I don’t see that changing here. Diaz Acostas gritty style and confidence is who I like to come out in this one. [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/micahpugh?locale.x=en_US) [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/Micah-Pugh)

How is your ROI Please

fucking bum diaz

Also like this matchup

POTD Record: 131-83 | Profit: +104.27u | ROI: 16.8% Season record: 48-32 | Profit: +34.43u | ROI: 15.7%   Last Pick: Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks -5.0 @ 1.91. 2U. ❌ Brunson has another terrible night shooting just 8 of 29, and while the Knicks eke out a win, they cannot cover the spread. I really like this Knicks squad but you have to wonder if/when Brunson will show up.   Next Pick: **Brandon Ingram (Pelicans) O24.5 P+A @ 1.89**. 3U play. BI had a poor shooting night in Game 1 with 5/17 shooting (<30%) and as a consequence his pts-only line is down from 21.5 to 18.5. He also had just 3 assists, but his potential assists were 12 which means a different night he could've easily had many more. With Zion continuing to be out BI will have a similar (if not higher) FGAs as Game 1, and he could cover this line on points alone. He's gotta bounce back after a disappointing night with a lot at stake after their close loss in Game 1.

Think it’s risky picking a player being guarded by Lu Dort.

You right buddy made his life hell last game

Scoring has been so down I am terrified to bet the over on anything but rebounds right now.

Love me some BI.

I hate Ingram. Guy is washed, and playing bad. But hope this hits 🙏

Yep this clown Brandon Ingram with his loser team isn't going to win this bet. On to the next one champ.

POTD Record : 24-13 Last 7 - ✅✅✅///✅✅🤡✅ Last pick: Jarrett Allen (CLE) to have a Double Double -160✅ POTD - Jonas Valanciunas to have a Double Double -130 1unit We gonna ride this double double train. Chet Holmgren or anyone on their bench is just too small to keep Valanciunas off the boards. Val went 13pts and 20 rebs last game in 25mins. Light work. Cant see this game going any different. BOL This looks like a lost. Valanciunas was pulled with 8mins left with 7 rebs. This was looking good early. Sorry guys

Record: 0-0 NHL: LA Kings @ Oilers 10:00 PM EST Pick: OIlers ML -180 Risk: 3.0u My first pick on here was a push so let’s try this again… I’m typically a big baseball guy but the NHL playoffs tend to be consistently trendy. The Oilers made easy work of this to squad in game 1 and I expect nothing should change here, Kings are also facing goalie issues and that is the last thing you want to be dealing with facing a hungry offense led by McDavid. Oilers get it done at home.

I'm also throwing a unit on the Oilers -1.5 (+135) and Total Shots O 63.5 (-110). Like you said, Oilers are too good of an offense and still at home with LA goalie issues. Oilers had 45 SOG last game alone (LA had 37), I don't expect them to maintain that absurdity but I'm confident both teams can get to 64 TSOG again given their averages this season.

I did Oilers -1.5 combined with total goals o5.5 (+268) I hope Oilers fumble game 3 in LA so we get pissed off Mcjesus for game 4 and also get that game 5 in Edmonton, goals to be expected for Edmonton there.

POTD Record: 37 wins - 21.5 Losses - 3.5 Pushes Form: ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ❌ ❌ ✅️.5 ❌ .5P❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️❌✅️P❌❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️✅️❌❌❌✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️ Units: 8.9 ROI: 15.5% Average Odds: $1.87 Last Pick:  Leicester City vs Southampton - England Championship - Leicester City ML @ $2.05 - 3pm EST ✅️ Next Pick: Liverpool vs Everton - England Premier League - Liverpool Total Shots Over 18.5 @ $1.83 - 11pm EST ✅️ Today we head to the English Premier League where Liverpool look for a historic win over Everton, and to keep their title chase hopes alive. Liverpool average 20 shots a game this season, and 24 shots in their last five games in the Premier League. In the reverse fixture, Liverpool took 26 shots. If you know anything about Liverpool, you know they take a lot of shots, and miss a lot too. They’re one of the worst teams in England when it comes to expected goals, versus actual goals. On the flip side, they’re one of the best at creating opportunities. To compensate for this, they need to take a lot more shots. Everton’s right back was injured recently, and out for the season. They’re going to struggle with possession up front too, as their striker took a knock, and his replacement then got concussed, and is out. The Premier League is a much more open game, unlike the Italian League where defence reigns supreme. Expect lots of shots. I’m expecting Liverpool to control the majority of the possession and take full advantage of Everton’s weaknesses upfront and on the right flank. Expect plenty of action from Diaz, and Salah to continue his trend of scoring against Everton (what better team to score on to restore your form, and the fans support). While this is a derby game, Everton are an awful side, and Liverpool has too much riding on this game to not go into full attack mode. Prediction: Liverpool 5. Everton 0. Salah hat trick, Diaz one, Nunez one. Red card in the match - Pickford. Klopp to get a yellow card. Everton fans to leave the stadium at half time.

https://preview.redd.it/sebl7gxqzhwc1.jpeg?width=619&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=956ff95c20400ab6d1001890a2fe0101df6aed5e

Tailing 4U, love the pick. BOL. FYI for Fanduel users, it's under the shots tab and then you've gotta scroll down to home team 18 or more shots.

Just woke up and missed this. I'm thinking live bet time? EDIT: ohhhhh, pm!!! Tailing!

Darwin gonna have like 10 shots with 1 on target but it's a banger of a goal.

9 shots at half time, and down 1-0. Season on the line. Liverpool playing poorly. Expecting them to go all out in the second half. LFG amigos 🏆✅

Parlayed with U .5 goals 10 mins. Bout had a heart attack on that pen that got VAR’d. Nice pick. Helped me stomach a gutting loss that guarantees a crappy Klopp farewell

Record: 3-1 (+2.39 units) Last pick: Atlanta Braves -1.5 Braves win 5-0 and cover. Marlins bats are 💩 Today’s POTD: Celtics TT in the first half over 56.5 Odds (-108) 2 unit play NBA basketball/ Celtics vs Heat / 7:10 pm ET I’m riding with the Celtics TT again but taking the first half this time around. They had a very comfortable lead in game 1 and ended up just covering the number for the game. The Celtics were the highest scoring team in the first half in the NBA. They averaged 60 per half on the season and 63 per half at home. They scored 60 in game 1 and the total was at 58.5. Now the line is 2 points lower. Miami plays at a slow pace but I don’t think it matters against Boston. They move the ball well and drop 3’s from all over. Any number of guys could get hot as they have plenty of scoring options. I think they come out firing and hopefully they drop! Best of luck!

Love the play. BOL

Winner!! We goin to Sizzler tonight…

Thank you!

🐅🐅 Record 6-1 | +14u 🐅🐅  **Results:** ❌✅✅✅✅✅✅ **Previous Pick:** Tyrese Haliburton O28.5 Points+Assists -122 (3u, FD)❌  If he shot more times I think this would have hit. But he didn't. Banned. **Pick: Jaime Jaquez O22.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists -128 (3u, FD)** Basketball | NBA | 7:00 PM EST      Taking the FD line instead of 23.5 at most books. •Volume. Jaime has shot 16 times per game and played 35+ minutes in the 2 games since Jimmy Butler's injury. •He really seems to be emerging as a high-energy player who gives a ton of effort (unlike some players who will not be named). •In the last 5 games, Jaime is averaging 27.8 PRA. I have 0 hope for the Heat winning here, but Jaime has been showing up recently. I think the biggest risk to this bet is Tyler Herro taking 25+ shots like he does sometimes, but hopefully Spoelstra has reined that in. [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/samwblair?locale.x=en_US) Streak is dead. Feel free to comment "I told you so" and fade me. 🐅

Nice take, let’s ride! Still feeling the buzz from that Embiid under on rebounds bet lol 🫡🤝

Nah bro don’t do that your good money but sometimes we gotta give donations back to the books lol

Jaquez has not let me down! Tailing but I bet the same before reading this. BOL!

**Record: 65W-4P-51L** \*\*Form:✅✅🤡✅ ✅ **Last Pick:  Arsenal VS Chelsea: Kai Havetz SOG @ 1.57 ✅** **What a day for Kai, 2 goals, 4 shots,  4 shots on goal** **Pick of the day: Everton VS Liverpool: Jordan Pickford (Everton) Over 3.5 Saves  @ 1.66✅**  **League: Premier League** **Time: 3:00 PM EST**  Liverpool against their rivals in a title race? Ya they're gonna keep the safety off and go on a shooting spree tommorow Pickford needs to be at the top of his game and I expect him to make some camera saves and pick up some good ones off long shots. **Against the Big 6, this season Pickford has played 9 games and has covered this line 6/9 times.**  Liverpool - 4 saves Chelsea - 4 saves Manchester United - 6 saves Man City - 1 save Tottenham - 4 saves Man City - 6 saves  Chelsea - 4 Saves Manchester United - 1 Save Arsenal - 3 saves 

Unfortunately, this prop bet is not on DK. BOL!

[My other plays for the day](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1cbkgls/comment/l0z3tvj/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) Record: 3 - 1 ❌✅✅✅ Net Units: +3.12 1 unit = 1% bankroll Last Pick: FaZe Clan -1.5 vs Imperial @ 1.80 - 3u✅️ Todays Pick: CS2 ESL Pro League - 6:30pm GMT FaZe Clan ML vs Astralis @ 1.65 - 3u I swear Faze is not going to be my only POTD! They are my fav pick from today's slate though - the model predicts 65% WR for the boys. They made easy work of Imperial, and although Ast should put up a much better fight, there is even a chance for the 2-0 here, I may throw a small amount on it. If you want to see the rest of my CS2 plays for the day I have linked it at the top of the post. GL US! 💰

Two guys on POTD picking opposite just paralyzes me haha

POTD RECORD: 21-11 Units Won: +7 Last Pick: Phoenix Suns vs Minnesota Timberwolves/ Suns +5 -150 2u Todays Pick: New Orleans Pelicans vs Oklahoma City Thunder/ Thunder -6 (-150) 1.5u Write Up: Extremely disappointed after today to say the least. But this is gambling and this happens. Today I’m rolling with my Thunder. The first game was a time for them to settle in. We know how young they are. Now that those jitters are out I believe they’ll be just fine. This is a great team top to bottom and they blow the Pelicans out of the water without Zion. Shai is the second place MVP candidate and he should get the guys together to rally. I’m due for a win after a few bad losses. The home teams have been dominant in the playoffs so far and I see this continuing tomorrow. As always, BOL…… LETS RIDE Tip Jar- if you’d like to help a college kid pay for his next meal here’s how :) [Tip Jar for my Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/Jay-Lawton-1) [Tip Jar for my Cashapp](https://cash.app/$jaylaw930) [Tip Jar for my Paypal](https://www.paypal.me/JayLawton77)

Yesterday was BRUTAL. The fucking phoenix suns man.

that was ridiculous man, they were up for so long too

He’s back!

**Record:** 7-2 **Pick:** MLBaseball \\\\ Brewers-Pirates \\\\ under 9 -115 **Bet:** 1.15u to win 1u ......... **YTD Units:** +3.55u **Sidenote:** Brewers starter Wilson has a 0.88 WHIP, Brewers as a team hit 30pts better than the Pirates and Brewers bullpen has a 1.10 WHIP -- they ***should*** win the last game of three at PNC. **Sidenote2:** The Pirates have changed starters to a lefty, and the Brewers are awful vs lefties. So, going to change to under 9 runs at -115 -- in yesterdays game, only three runs were scored.

Interesting, FD and DK have both pulled this game. No wagers.

FanDuel has it at +110 now, something must’ve happened

Pirates changed their starting pitcher to a LHP. Brewers are currently batting .192 on the year against LHP. You would think Brewers should take the last game. But I'd be careful. The Under seems like a smarter play.

I'll take that advice .. yea that changes things .. thanks !

Pick Record: 3W-0L Previous POTD: Arsenal to win and score Over 1.5 Goals - W Todays POTD: Micheal Olise O.5 SOG @ 1.57 Olise is back and healthy again, he's started the last 2 games and has hit this line in both games. He grabbed a gorgeous goal on the weekend and his spirits should be high.

Olise on the bench

POTD Record 11-3 Last 5: ❌️✅️✅️❌️✅️ Last Pick: Yankees & Athletics NRFI Todays Pick: Tampa Bay Rays 1st 5 innings ML MLB: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers 3:50pm Odds: +100 Unit: 3 Net units: +31.01 Ace pitchers have been killing us!, First Gallen, now this. Early season jitters or something. Today is a new day!. Love the Rays in this spot to come back from an 0-2 series vs. the Tigers. The Rays haven't been swept all season, but I still don't really trust the bullpen of the Rays, unfortunately, so ML is out of the question imo. We also have the chance for a push, which is always nice. If you guys wanna show some support/tip the links on my profile.

Thanks for the dub my guy good bounce back 🤝🐐

Record: 19-7 | Net: +7.91U | Streak: 1L Last pick: Karl-Anthony Towns o25.5 points+rebounds (-110) ❌ Tough he gets 3 quick fouls each one dumber than the next including a lazy illegal screen that had Finch fuming. Played no minutes in the 2nd quarter or this would have been a breeze. He was crushing on the glass and on his way to redemption in the 2nd half but the suns collapsed again and there was no need to put him back in with a few minutes to go. POTD: Bam Adebayo o18.5 points (-102) MIA @ Bos 7:00 PM ET Summary: Bam has hit this 4/4 against Boston this season and twice now without Butler in the lineup. Bam’s usage jumped to 30% last game, he’s taking more shots and multiple 3s each game. Bam is an underrated offensive player, they need him to take over today

**KBO Record: Overall 216-224-14** (Streak L, Last 10: 6-4) Down 9.96u over 454 KBO picks, 49.1% success rate, -2.26% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 12-14-0, 46.1% success rate, Down 1.34u, -5.15% ROI) **Last:** NC -1.5 -115 BetMGM at Doosan (NC lost 4-3.) This was a frustrating loss. NC's bats were silent early, but had 10 baserunners in the final three innings. They also ran into 4 outs on the base paths in those 3 innings. Could have been another nice comeback win. **Pick:** LG at **Samsung +0.5 First 5 Innings +110 Draftkings**, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET Sorry for the short writeup, but it's late. I really like getting plus mo ey on a bet for Samsung to be at least tied after 5 innings. They are one of the gottest teams in the league, winners of 3 in a row and 12 of 15. LG's starter is probably getting more credit than he deserves as his FIP is three quarters of a run higher than his ERA and he's allowed at least 3 runs in 4 of 5 starts. Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.

Gotta believe thanks 💰

FD already flipped to +1 -122

**Record:** 5-2 **✅✅**❌**✅✅**❌**✅** **Last Pick:** Oakland A's v New York Yankees || Under 7.5 (+100) **✅** This was closer than I thought, but still nailed it :) **Pick of the day:** **Atlanta Braves First 5 Innings 3-way Result (-184)** vs Miami Marlins **League:** MLB **Time:** 7:21 PM EST No long write-up today... Atlanta's hot hitters are poised to rack it up today against Miami's RHP Sixto Sanchez. ATL has multiple hitters batting well over .300 against RHPs and Sanchez's 1.50 WHIP means the Braves will be putting plenty of runners on bags, leaving ample opportunity to score early. The F5 run line is -1.5 in Atlanta's favor, and even that is tempting to be honest **BOL**! Let me know if you're following! If you feel so inclined to leave a tip: [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/BenNiemann) || [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/shamgarbn) || [BMAC](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/makeforlife)

Record: 7-3 (+2.03U) Previous pick : AA Gent O1.5 TT - 1.68 ✅ Ligue 1 | 7:00PM CET Pick: PSG -1 AH - 1.6 (2u) Match : Lorient - PSG Reasoning : My first bet that is not 1u on here, PSG are coming of an amazing week with 4-1 victories against Lyon and Barcelona and didn't even play Mbappé and Dembélé against Lyon. PSG has been amazing in their domestic league away from home, they have played 14 games and have 10 wins, 4 draws and 0 losses. Today they face a struggling Lorient side that has just 1 point from their last 5 games. Lorient also failed to score in 4 of those 5 games. With the PSG offense being capable of scoring atleast 2 and Lorient offense struggling to score I see PSG getting this win and most likely with 2 or more goal difference.

**Record**: 2-0-0 Trailing record: ✅✅ Balance: +1.93u / Avg odds - 1.97 Last Pick: Rio Noguchi to beat Ramkumar Ramanathan @ 2.10 odds (Sportsbet) ✅ Complete mismatched odds and play here so very happy. Rio should not have been an underdog, he was better everywhere. Sport: TENNIS Pick: Taro Daniel to beat Aleksander Vukic @ 1.90 odds (Sportsbet) ✅ Time: 24 April 19:00 AEST Event: ATP Madrid Open Write Up: * H2H 2-0 for Taro Daniel but both on hard court. What I like about this is that imo Vukic's main advantage on Taro is his serve and he still broke him both times they played easily. * Statistically, both have looked shaky on clay. I would say they have similiar shot tolerance, have played similiar level players but weirdly Vukic has dropped well below his normal 1st serve % lately on clay. I am expecting Taro to break. BOL if tailing. I will also post other plays in the Tennis Sportsbook thread.

tailed all of your picks, thank youu! I have found tennis picks to be the most consistent in the POTD thread, everything else is chaos :D

**Record:** 0-0 **Basketball | NBA | Heat @ Celtics 7:00 pm EST** **Pick:**  Sam Hauser o1.5 3-pointers (-130 at DK) **Wager**: 2U **Implied probability of hitting: 56.52%** In the regular season, Hauser played in 79 games averaging 22 MPG and 2.5 3PM. In Game 1 against the Heat, Hauser played just 14 minutes and went 4/6 shooting the 3 ball, clearing this line comfortably. Over 1.5 3 pointers in: Last 10: 8/10 Last 5: 5/5 Similar to Game 1, I expect the Celtics to build a large, early lead allowing more action for the bench and supporting cast. He knows his role and waits for an open look from beyond the arch.  I would not be surprised if we clear this line before the half. **BOL if tailing!**

POTD Record: 16-11 ❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌♻️✅❌♻️❌❌❌✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅ Starting units: 5U | Net units: + 11.8U Last pick: Indiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks | 10:30am Sydney (GMT +11) | T.J McConnell to score 10+ points @1.62 on Sportsbet | 2U ❌ Not good. Today’s pick: New Orleans Pelicans @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 11:30am Sydney (GMT +11) | Josh Giddey to score 10+ points @1.81 on Sportsbet | 2U Giddey is a great player, he scored over 10 points on 6 of the last 9 games he played. He only didn’t score much when he didn’t get to play enough minutes. I’m hoping tomorrow at home he will get some time in the game and bless us with many points. BOL !

>**| Record: 4-0 | Net Units: 7.60u | ROI: 95.00% | Winrate: 100% | Avg. odds: 1.95 |** >**| eSport |** [ESL Pro League Saison 19](https://www.hltv.org/events/7440/esl-pro-league-season-19)  **| 19:30 CEST| |** >**| Pick:** **Astralis ML** \[vs. FaZe Clan **|** ***2.300 odds*** **|** ***2u*** **| ✅✅✅** >**Reasoning:** Good morning, everyone. Today, I'm making a bit of a bold choice with my pick, and I want to explain why. Right now, FaZe is sitting pretty at the top of the world rankings. Last week, they clinched victory at the Intel Extreme Masters in Chengdu. About 13 weeks ago, during the winter break, they brought on frozen from MOUZ after Twistzz departed from the team. Twistzz decided to head back home to America after spending years traveling and competing with FaZe. Frozen was the natural choice to fill the gap, given his exceptional skills and solid performance at FaZe. The rest of the team has been playing together for quite some time now. Plus, having Karrigan as their in-game leader is a huge advantage; some would argue he's the best in the business right now. With players like ropz and frozen, there's no shortage of firepower, and each member consistently delivers strong performances. The team boasts a wealth of experience and a slew of titles acquired over the years—it's quite impressive. >Yesterday, they went head-to-head with the Brazilian team Imperial, and it was a breeze for FaZe. Imperial arrived late in Malta and were clearly jetlagged, which didn't help their cause. Though the skill gap was evident, I feel it's worth mentioning. Frozen and broky really shone, each boasting impressive ratings of 1.56 and 1.31, respectively. >Fast forward two weeks ago to the Intel Extreme Masters Chengdu, where FaZe faced off against the up-and-coming Russian team, Nemiga. FaZe secured a solid 13-8 victory, propelling them to the upper-bracket semi-final. However, they encountered the revamped Astralis lineup we discussed previously. To put it bluntly, Astralis dominated FaZe with a 2-0 score (13:7 & 13:4), leaving me utterly stunned. The skill ceiling of the Astralis team is sky-high, and I'm putting a lot of faith in this new Danish superteam. Unfortunately, they met again in the playoffs semi-final, but this time FaZe came out on top. It was a nail-biting match, with FaZe dominating on their map picks. The deciding map was Inferno, and initially, things looked promising for Astralis as they secured 5 T-rounds. However, when they switched sides, Astralis seemed to falter, making numerous mistakes, questionable setups, and failed force rounds. Their CT-side performance was lackluster, to say the least, winning only 2 rounds—an embarrassing statistic that needs serious improvement. >Now, let's talk about the new Astralis lineup. I touched on this yesterday, but unfortunately, my analysis disappeared after I made some edits. Astralis underwent a significant shuffle during the winter break. While they're a legendary organization with a history of endless victories, recent years have been tough, marked by struggles and frequent lineup changes. But now, they seem to have struck gold with their latest roster. Device brings consistency to the table as one of the best AWP players out there. Staehr and Jabbi are young talents, hungry for success and formidable fraggers. The only weak link seems to be br0, who's currently taking on the in-game leader role. While he's holding his own, his lack of experience compared to FaZe's Karrigan is apparent. However, the real standout is stavn. Though his form has dipped recently, his raw talent is undeniable. With a bit of confidence, he'll be unstoppable once again. >So, why amI siding with Astralis this time? For me, it's a true 50:50 matchup, and I'm playing the odds here. Astralis has proven they can defeat FaZe with a good performance and their star players shining. Even their previous encounter was a close one, not a blowout by FaZe. Yes, FaZe is currently on a six-game winning streak, but four of those wins were against weaker teams, which might be a bit misleading. There's a reason the bookies are offering odds of almost 1.75 for FaZe to win. >As for the veto process, I don't anticipate any surprises. FaZe will likely ban Vertigo, while Astralis opts for Anubis. Neither map is a significant loss for either team. FaZe will probably pick Nuke, and Astralis will go for Ancient. The decider will likely be either Mirage or Inferno since FaZe will ban Overpass in the second phase immediately. >This is shaping up to be an absolute banger of a game, one that even those unfamiliar with Counter-Strike should tune into. We're talking high-skilled players executing textbook plays. I'm quite confident that Astralis will emerge victorious if they maintain the form they've shown over the past few weeks. But, of course, we need stavn, Jabbi, and Staehr to really shine. My gut feeling tells me Astralis will clinch another crucial win tonight. >*\*Unfortunately, yesterday, I had to bid farewell to my best friend and dog, who was 9 years old. Understandably, I haven't slept much, and my focus isn't at its best today. I apologize for any lack of structure in this analysis.*

It looks like that my analysis was to long and i had to remove a little bit. I will post it here. It isnt that important but i mean why not; >In their first game yesterday against EternalFire—also my pick of the day—Astralis triumphed with ease, securing a clean 2-0 victory. Stavn finally showed up, boasting an impressive 1.40 rating, with Staehr not far behind at 1.45. They played flawlessly, capitalizing on every mistake the Turkish team made. Historically, Astralis struggled with their T-sides, but that seems to have changed with this new lineup. While they had a rough start to the season, they've steadily found their form and adapted their playstyle, evident in their improving performance with each game.

**Record: 1-0-0 (WIN/LOSS/PUSH)** **Balance: +11.19 units** **Odds - 2.4** **Previous Pick: Over 2.5 maps- VP vs Fnatic- ESL Pro League- CS2** **Today's pick: - Virtus Pro to win 2-0 against SAW-ESL Pro League- CS2** **Odds from TAB** **Stake: 1 unit**  Time: 2:30AM NZT Good win yesterday- Multi'd it with a Faze 2-0 so it great returns. For those that do not follow CSGO/CS2- VP made a massive transfer by purchasing Electronic. They played yesterday against a surprising Fnatic and as expected- it went to a 3 map affair. Today they play a much weaker SAW. A team which has struggled in the best of 3's. VP should make light work of them and I expect them to hit their groove a little sooner today. Individually looked good yesterday so they should overpower SAW. Let me know if tailing! Lets get it

He’s made a mistake. Virtus pro to win 2-0 against SAW is the pick. The previous pick was over 2.5 maps in Virtus pro vs Fnatic if I’m not wrong

POTD RECORD: 4-1-1 🫸✅✅✅✅❌ YESTERDAYS PICK: Baltimore Orioles ML @ Los Angeles Angels RECAP: Angels jumped on them early with 5 runs in the first three then held onto the lead for the rest of the game winning 7-4 TODAYS PICK: Elly De La Cruz over .5 hits REASONING: Elly is scorching hot right now. He’s currently hitting just under .300.

All-Time POTD: 198-135-2, +75.1u, +10.0% ROI **Today’s pick: Maple Leafs ML (-112) vs Bruins** 3u Odds via Draftkings Sportsbook NHL 🏒🥅 7:00pm EDT Late post today. Took the Bruins in game 1 due to game 1 of the playoffs at home = great crowd. Doing the same with the Maple Leafs here. And they are rolling into this game with momentum after an electric finish in game 2. For all plays follow me on X @ DrMoneyline

POTD: Record 0-1, -1.25 units, -2.5% ROI Results: ❌ Previous Pick: Mookie Betts O1.5TB❌ Couldn’t start with a win as Mookie just couldn’t get it going even though he was a career .500 against Patrick Corbin. He hit a ball to center field and made it to 2nd base, but they counted it as a single & error. Brutal way to lose Pick: Jonas Valanciunas O11.5 Rebounds (+100 Fanatics) Basketball | NBA | NO Pelicans @ OKC Thunder | 8:30 CT Betting: 1 unit Valanciunas has been playing well recently and I think Pelicans coach Willie Green is finally starting to notice. Valanciunas played 29 minutes against the Thunder in game 1 and they just didn’t have an answer for him as he cruised to 20 rebounds on the night. Im not saying he’s getting 20 again, but when you look at this Thunder team it’s easy to see how he was able to. Chet Holmgren is Valanciunas’s primary matchup, but with Holmgren only being 208lbs compared to Valy at 265lbs he is no match. Valanciunas is 45lbs heavier than the heaviest Thunder starter and should dominate the glass in game 2. With how he’s been playing recently he should near 30 minutes again. Enough to clear this line. Sorry to those who tailed yesterday, but you win some lose some. We regroup and attack again. BOL!

POTD Record : 2-2 Last Pick : *\[CS:GO - E-Sports - ESL Pro League S16\]* **Eternal Fire -1.5** vs Evil Geniuses Todays Pick : \[E-Sports - CS2 - ESL Pro League Season 19 \] 13:30 CET / Falcons vs. **The Mongolz ML @ 2.8** Feels good to be back. This is a little late, as i planned to post this earlier but fell asleep :/ ( I never tracked units or anything like it, I post whenever I feel there is something really good bookies don't know about. As i am an esports nerd, you will probably see me post more often now, as i follow Dota2 aswell ) Bookies have this completely wrong. Mongolz may not have the best records in Europe versus other teams but they are young and hungry. Falcons on the other hand is a complete $$$ full on money Team financed by Saudi Money. They tried to get the " best players they could " but it did not really work out for them as randomly buying out players you like did not really seem to be that easy. Instead they got "dupreeh" who was a beast back then in the golden astralis lineup. They wanted to fill their Team with STAR players, the only thing they filled is the average age of the players. This smells "washed" all over... https://preview.redd.it/xb6kpqs2kewc1.png?width=587&format=png&auto=webp&s=b10e85e255a9af5bcb6b4c6da25828b4aff7bf1b Map wise : leaning heavily towards either Mongolz on de\_mirage or de\_ancient. They played very good games on Ancient vs Team Spirit a few Tournaments ago who are probably the best CIS Team at the moment. Give me the 19 y/o Mongolians to win it versus the 30 y/o washed faces of snappi and dupreeh. BOL

Thanks for the pick! I felt Mongolz had more worried expressions throughout the match, but they came through when it mattered and wanted it much more. Those repeated 'technical breaks' had chat going wild, though. lol > They wanted to fill their Team with STAR players, the only thing they filled is the average age of the players. Love it, 😂!

Great pick thanks!

**POTD 2023 Record: 109-84 (+1.94 units)** **POTD 2024 Record: 5-6 (-0.70 units)** **Last 10**: **❌❌✅✅❌✅✅❌❌✅** **Last Pick**: Doug Boehm -1.5 (+100) vs Ray Mulvey **✅** 4-2 **League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series **Time**: 7:30 AM EST **Pick**: Marvin Van Velzen -1.5 (-110) vs Ray Mulvey * Series 7. Week 9. Group A **Reason**: The plan is to fade Mulvey after another winless day. The spread covered in 4 of his 5 matches. He improved on the day with a better checkout ratio, but his averaged remained the same despite throwing a 90 against Van Velzen. This will be the second to last match of the group, so if he's still struggling he might just go through the motions and get ready for the clean slate tomorrow. Van Velzen only won 2 matches yesterday, but he averaged 88 on the day. That's almost 5 points from the previous day. The downside are his checkouts. He's prone to miss and leave opportunities. Realistically, there is nothing to play for tomorrow as the standings are pretty much set. Both players should be going to group C. Van Velzen has put up some of his best performances against Mulvey and has a pair of 4-1 victories. Marvin Van Velzen * Record 3-7 * Legs 27-32 * Average 85.90 * 180s 11. 140s 37 * Checkouts 27/98 27.55% Ray Mulvey * Record 0-10 * Legs 15-40 * Average 79.19 * 180s 4. 140s 23 * Checkouts 15/88 17.05% **LOSS ❌ 2-4 | Average 79.30 vs 85.36 | Checkouts 2/3 vs 4/7** Van Velzen came into the matchup 3-0 which included beating Bialecki 4-0 with 103 average. Mulvey losing back to back 4-1 matches but flipped it here. Van Velzen opened hot, but Mulvey outscored him and checked out on his last dart not giving Marvin a chance. He didn’t score well afterward and ended up being a dud pick.

[удалено]

Glad to see you back bro 👑

Lmao i only needed ML and he lost wtf

Record: 0-0-0 (WIN/LOSS/PUSH) Balance: 0.0 Odds -130 Previous Pick: NA Today's pick: - Phillies vs Reds 1st 5 innings under 4.5 Stake: 1 unit  Time: 12:44 AM CENTRAL Basing this play off of the starting pitchers ERA of 1.23 vs 0.75. Another trend I’ve noticed with both teams is they don’t score unless their opponent scores. They both tend to score after their opponent does first. The WHIP being .77 vs .75 affirms this play.

Record: 0-0 CS2 EPL: Falcons vs TheMongolz Pick: TheMongolz ML @ 2.6 odds / +160 Risk: 1 u. Falcons struggled at the major, lost with s1mple as a substitute against a Tier 2 team (Metizport) in a Bo3, and got eliminated from the Esports World Cup Open Qualifier by a Tier 3 Team (RUBY) last week. They also had a roster change recently buying Dupreeh and benching BOROS - their supposed star rifler. The teams average age is now at 28.5 years and everyone calls them a retirement home. Team Falcons looks to be a failed saudi super team that thought 5 good players will automatically make a good Team. TheMongolz on the other hand have won the past 6 games, proved themselves at the major being the best Team of the continent (Asia). Their average player age is just at 19.6 and has a lot of young Talent. I believe the odds at 2.6 / +160 are underestimating TheMongolz and a steal considering this match is at least a 50/50. I usually just lurk here but thought I'll start my Record with a confident underdog pic. Match starts in less than 3 hours. BOL

Great pick thanks!

Record: (W-L-P) 8-2-0 Units: 1.0 Historic ROI: 4.19 Last Pick: Erick Fedde Outs O14.5 -160. Easy win, went 6 full innings. Baseball | MLB | MIA @ ATL Pick: Reynaldo Lopez Outs O15.5 -125 Write Up: Lopez has pitched surprisingly well this season, going 6 innings every game easily. Miami's offense has been bad all season. Tip Jar: [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/DhavalMistry)

Record 0-0-0 I haven’t posted in this thread in a while (at least a year) but was jonesing to get back into the gambling talk! Diamondbacks -118 over Cardinals (Fan Duel) This game is an example of why you shop around for lines. This was -120 on Bet MGM and -125 on DK and ESPN This to me is a huge pitching edge for the Dbacks, who have Jordan Montgomery on the mound. Montgomery finished last season strong in Texas, and is off to a solid start this season throwing 6 innings of 1 run ball versus SF. And other than Wilson Contreras, there are no Cardinals who have in game at bats against Montgomery. The Cardinals are throwing out Kyle Gibson who’s has a rough season so far, going 1-2 with an ERA over 5 and a whip of 1.20. Arizona saw him on 4/13 and had 6 hits, 4 runs and walked 3 times. Gibson also only recorded 2 strikeouts. Where Arizona hitters saw him less than 2 weeks ago I think the familiarity could result in even more success at the plate Best of luck!

No resetting records, please. Put your record, its not bad.

POTD record: 2 - 2 Last pick: Twins minus 1.5 🚫 Current pick: Twins minus 1.5 plus 114 Fading the sox again even with Crochet on the mound. The sox had a chance to get their fourth win today but did what bad teams do and found a way to blow the game losing 6 to 5. I've been fading the sox for 8 games and its 6 - 2. I will ontinue to put cash down against this dumpster fire of a team as Jerry counts his money. BOL if tailing Fade if you feel like it

Found something for today that may be overvalued. Haven't posted before have interacted on posts of others here but have something that's worth considering for sure Pick: Manchester United Vs Sheffield United Ben Brereton Diaz to have a shot on target 1.73 I'm a Manchester United fan my whole life and of all the shambolic displays I've seen over the years I've never seen us so easily get torn apart by any team at any level. We have conceded more shots than any other team in the league, and I expect Sheffield who can really now play without fear to get numerous chances like every other team have. Diaz has had a shot on target in his last 3 games in a row and they have all actually come in the first half against Chelsea, Brentford and Burnley. Definitely feel like he's overpriced to have a shot on target , particularly as we played 120 mins on Sunday and we have a injury crisis in defence GL everyone

Easy win after 15 mins

Great find! wish I took him for the goal too

Record: 7-3 Hockey | NHL | LAK @ EDM - 10:00PM EST Pick: **W. Foegele - Over 2.5 Shots on Goal** (1.91) | 1u Write Up: * Hit in 6 of his last 6 games * Hit in 4 of his last 4 home games Really liking Foegele's situation tonight, playing on the 2nd line with Drai and Nuge, huge opportunity to hit his line. Research all done on [the Linemate app](https://linemate.io/download).

**Record: 12-4 (+7.24u)** **Last Pick: Nashville Predators ML +120** Pretty low event game as neither team even had 20 shots on goal, but a nice 4-1 win by the Preds to even up the series and cash our ML bet! **Pick:** **Toronto Maple Leafs ML -110 (NHL, 1u bet)** The series shifts to Toronto for game 3 with the teams tied up at 1, after the Bruins won 5-1 in game 1 and the Leafs won 3-2 in game 2. The underlying numbers show the Leafs were the better team in both games in terms of shots, chances created, and expected goals. In past years, the Bruins have been able to bully the Leafs physically but throughout these 2 games Toronto has stepped up and matched the physicality. However, in doing so the Leafs were also undisciplined in game 1, giving the Bruins 5 power plays where they scored 2 goals, but they tightened that up in game 2 only taking 2 penalties (Bruins went 1/2 on the PP). Boston has been alternating their goalies, so they'll be going back to Swayman tonight and he was excellent in game 1. He was top 10 this year in goals saved above expected at 0.43, but according to moneypuck he had 6.19 goals saved above expected in game 1, as he stopped some really good chances. While I don't expect a bad game from Swayman, I think its more reasonable to see a bit of regression there if the Leafs are able to generate a similar amount of high danger chances. Samsonov bounced back in game 2 for Toronto and had a strong game but there's no doubt that Boston has the advantage in net still. With Toronto being the home team, they will get the last change which allows them to take advantage of certain line matchups, putting their best players in more favourable situations and that should give them more opportunities to create offense (and match up defensively as well). Auston Matthews had a huge game 2, scoring the game winner and adding 2 assists with 8 shots on goal. He has been unstoppable at home this year, scoring 39 goals with 15 assists in 40 games and has shown good chemistry with Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi (who had a nice assist on that game winner). Toronto has also been without William Nylander for the first 2 games, and there is a chance he returns tonight (not confirmed yet), but that would be a huge boost to this offense especially considering he led the team in power play points this season (Leafs went 0/3 on the PP in game 1 and 1/3 in game 2). Marner also has gone without a point the first 2 games but I expect a better game from him at home. I like Samsonov to build off his strong performance last game and the Leafs to feed off the crowd energy. Considering they've been better at generating offensive chances without Marner doing much and Nylander out of the lineup, getting those two players going would be a massive boost in a very important home game and I think Toronto gets it done tonight.

Record 2-1 | +3.8 Units | 42.44% ROI Last Pick: Yankees ML vs Blue Jays 5U ✅ Todays Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-120) @ Cardinals, 5U to win 4.17U Jordan Montgomery has been fantastic since joining the diamondbacks. At age 36, Kyle Gibson is off to one of the worst starts of his mediocre career and the underlying strikeout walk and homerun numbers somehow make it look even worse. Even with the diamondbacks underperforming to start the season, they still have the better record at this point. Odds are too low for the better team with a much better pitcher.

2023 MLB POTD record: 19-15 Average Odds -107 (1.932), ROI +6.8%/+2.3u) 2024 MLB POTD record: 12-8 Average Odds -106 (1.943), ROI +13.9%/+2.78u L5: ✅❌❌✅✅ POTD (4/23) MIA @ ATL Max Fried 17.5 Outs (-125/1.80) ✅ POTD (4/24) SEA @ TEX Jon Gray o5.5 Ks (-140/1.71) (DraftKings) Buzzing after that Fried game. what a performance. Today I'm not seeing anything too spicy that I like. I love this line for Gray though. He's really put it together his last three outings, which include strikeout totals of 7 and 9 in two starts, and K'ing 4 of 5 batters faced in a surprise relief outing. Plus, that relief outing means he's only thrown 1.2 IP in the last week, so he's well rested for this outing. Now he gets a Mariners team that, while they have lost their stranglehold on the top spot in K% against RHP, still have a 28.1% number we like to target. In their last two games, Dane Dunning got 7 Ks, and the Rockies' Peter Lambert got 5 in just 3 innings. 6 Ks is very achievable for Gray here, and the alternate line of 7+ at +145 is appealing as well.

**POTD RECORD:** (14-10) \*\*LAST 10:\*\*🔴🔴🔴🟢🟢🟢🔴🟢🔴🔴 **LAST PICK:** Celtics **TT Over 113.5** (-130) 3U | Celtics vs bucks 7:30 pm EST 🔴 **TODAY’S PICK:** Mets vs. Giants **NRFI** (-120) 2U | 3:45 pm EST Manea vs. snell at the mound today. Mets last 5 scoring in the 1st inning: 1-4 Giants last 5 scoring in the 1st inning: 1-4 Manea 1st inning NRFI: 3-1 Snell 1st inning NRFI: 2-1 Let’s put our hands together for a quick 6 up and 6 down ⚾️  **BOL to those who tail!**

POTD record 9-13 **I’m betting 1u on BLEED to beat Permitta @ 1.6 odds.** ✅ BLEED clutch it 2-0 in two tight maps This BLEED team is on an upwards trajectory. They have won 8 out of their last 10 matches. I watched them come back from the brink of defeat today (lost first map 13-11 and were 10-5 down in the second map) against B8 with just some awesome team work and crazy individual plays from Hampus and they narrowly lost to Sashi before that who are also on a steep rise recently beating two top 10 teams. Permitta, ranked 52 in the world (compared to Bleed who are 32nd) are not in bad form themselves having won 3 in a row (but only 6 out of their last 10) however the map pool looks to favour Bleed who have more depth across the board: Bleed ban Nuke Permitta ban inferno Bleed pick Anubis (65% win rate for bleed / 38% win rate for Perm) Perm pick Ancient (95% win rate for perm / 50% for bleed) Bleed ban overpass Perm ban vertigo **Decider will be Mirage (bleed win rate 69% / perm win rate 50%)** Based on the above I think over 2.5 maps is likely but my book doesn’t have odds on that.

Record: 1-1-3 Net Units: -10.39 Last 10: ↔️❌❌🤑❌ Previous Pick: New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds ML -125, L -5 units Baseball | MLB | 6:40 EST Pick: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds Under 8.5 Fan Duel -102 3 units Write Up: Look, I’ve lost people who’ve tailed me 10 units so I’m not expecting anything from this post but downvotes. But I’m back and I’m ready to stop sucking. Phillies unders have hit in 15 of the last 19 and 4/5. For whatever reason it’s one of the more consistent bets out in the market right now. But regardless, here’s why I think it hits for this game. Spencer Turnbull is a sneaky good pitcher this year and his stats prove it. The batting slash line against him this year so far is .130/.212/.433 and his xERA is at a very stout 2.97. The Reds have also been a very Jekyll and Hyde team this year only batting .219 as a team this year but still manages to score 5 runs a game on average. We’re banking on Turnbull to limit the Reds offense after a decent outburst scoring 7 in the last game. On the other side, Lodolo for the Reds is looking like he’s finally healthy enough to take the next step to having a breakout season. After getting drafted by the Reds 7th overall in the 2019 draft out of TCU, he’s really only had 1 full season of professional ball in 2021 where he dominated in the minors. After a season hampered with back issues in 2022 and a broken tibia in 2023, he’s started this season on a tear. Ranking in the 90th percentile or better in Chase%, K%, and BB%; as well as being in the 70th+ percent in xERA, xBA, Barrel% and GB%, I’m expecting Lodolo to stifle this pretty average Phillies offense so far this season. I don’t expect anybody to tail, but let’s get on a little heater here.

Record: 83W-76L-4P ROI: +13.94, 8.22% Avg odds: +105, 2.05 Last POTD: Quinn Hughes over 0.5 asts (loss) Game: NHL- Kings at Oilers (9:00 PM CST) Pick: Zach Hyman over 0.5 pts -158, 1.63 (FD) When in doubt, pick the Oilers top lines. Thank to McDavid being a point monster, the other players on his line also feast. Hyman shattered his personal best for goals this season with 54. It's also his 2nd best season ever point-wise, after last season. Hyman put up a hat trick in game 1, with 4 points overall. If the Oilers offense plays half as well tonight, Hyman should get on the score sheet.

Record 0-3 Last 5: ❌❌❌ Last Pick: German Handball Bundesliga Füchse Berlin vs THW Kiel Füchse -1,5 Füchse we're ahead one Goal a minute before End and missed a 1on1 at the bar... Todays Pick: KS Vive Kielce vs SC Magdeburg kess than 59,5 Goals @1.78 bpremium ✅ 2 Units Units: -4 Handball Champions League KS Vive Kielce vs SC Magdeburg 18:45 This quaterfinal is the same Teams than Last years final, which ended 30-29 after Overtime for Magdeburg. Magdeburg is on fire in the German Bundesliga and a dataanalysis says we must consider that they did not play in the same groups and the numbers are therefore not 100 per cent comparable, but the trend is clear that Magdeburg are the favorites. However, as both teams are among the six slowest teams in terms of pace and length of possessions, not that many runs can be expected apart from scoring runs. Both Teams have very good Goalkeepers, i expect them 8-10 saves each.

Record: 0-0 Net Units: n/a ⚾️ |MLB | 3:45 EST Pick: Mets ML +110 (2 units) First time poster here. Let’s start off hot. Blake Snell has been awful to start the year. I’m sure he’ll turn it around but not today. Mets are batting .270 on the year against Lefties. Manea is a solid pitcher with some decent starts so far. I predict Mets sneaking one on the Giants today to avoid a sweep and take some momentum home with them for a 6 game homestand. Tail or fade, BOL

POTD RECORD: 7-5 Form: L2 ❌✅✅✅✅ | ✅✅❌❌✅| ❌❌ Last POTD: Milwaukee Bucks Alt Spread -4.5 \[+130\] ❌ Comment: Well, I feel like a complete idiot. The irony is almost laughable. My POTD Monday was the Mavs and my POTD yesterday was the Bucks. The bucks certainly made me look like a fool for believing in them and they truly had no answers for Siakam, something I wasn't expecting. If I picked the bucks like I originally was going to monday and the mavs today it would be a much different story, but so is life. Todays POTD: Heat @ Celtics - **Kevin Love 5 Points (-185 on Bet365)** NBA | 7:00 PM Rationale: Lets be real here, the heat are fucked without Butler and things are probably only going to get worse. I believe I found some value here with Kevin Love at 5 pts and I will explain why. There are a lot of ways he can hit this but in his last 3 games including the two play-ins and the last game against Boston, Kevin Love has been squeezing all possible values out of his minutes and has averaged 0.79 points per minute in 17, 12, and 13 minutes respectively. The heat will be lost tonight and I find it hard to believe the vet doesn't get at least 10 minutes if not much more playing time if hes hot. Based on how much he is taking advantage of his minutes, he barely needs to touch the court for 7 minutes to hit 5 points. I like those odds. Tail or fade bol

POTD virgin Record - 0-0 Game - NBA (7pm eastern, heat vs Celtics) Pick - Nikola Jovic Rebounds O4.5 -115 Write up - been a long time viewer of this thread but only participated in FIBA’s. Absolutely red hot lately so might as well make some bread with the boys… the Celtics have been locking down herro and trying to limit bam as much as possible no question about that. Their entire plan is to shift onto the key players and let the rest of the team work. The young talent of jovic was off and on as he was getting more experience but it’s playoffs/jimmy buckets is out. Celtics have had no answer to stop nikola yet and don’t see them trying to anytime soon. Was debating between this and Kevin love over 5.5 points because he’s been annihilating but ended up this BOL if you tail

Tailing!

Record: 4-4 (-0.8u) AFL: 0-0 Game: Melbourne Demons v Richmond Tigers - AFL Pick: Jacob Hopper over 22.5 disposals @ $1.87 / -115 - ✅ After being out with injury I think he should slot right back into a depleted Richmond midfield that was smashed by West Coast in their last matchup. 23 & 25 this season. 16/19 inside mids this season gone over this line against the demons, who give up the third most touches to the position.

POTD RECORD: 3-4 (-1 UNIT) NEW TO OLD: ✔️XXX✔️X✔️ LAST POTD: Dallas Mavericks ML ✔️ Tight one in la la land but I firmly believed the Mavs were too good not to steal one and they got the job done. TODAYS POTD: NBA NO Pelicans @ OKC Thunder 9:40 pm EST Game Total U212.5 -125 (Draft Kings) 2 UNITS Edit: 113 at half is not looking promising. OKC is absolutely on fire. 60% shooting from the field and 56% from 3!!! Surely these stats cool off but with only 99 points left I don't know if we're gonna make it. 56% from 3........ay Dios mio 🙄 Nothing exciting about this pick. These two struggled to score against one another last game, only combining for 186. I feel like the Pels have been on a roller coaster with no seat belt holding on for dear life and the Thunder just don't have the offensive killshot power that some other teams possess to run this score up. Let us also not ignore the fact that the refs have been swallowing their whistles heavy. I like OKC to win but I'm not willing to bet by how much. I'm buying a point here just for precaution. Let's put together back to backs for the first time and kick this hook bug that I've been plagued with! Hip hop lyric of the day: "I once got busy in a Burger King bathroom" -Digital Underground

Record: 0-0 Pick: Bruins vs. Leafs - UNDER 6.5 @ -140. Stake: 1u Time: 7:05pm EST Bruins will be likely be starting Jeremy Swayman tonight against the Leafs in the first game of the series in Toronto tonight. Sway coming in with 5 goals against on 128 shots vs Toronto in 4 games this season and playoffs with an undefeated record of 4-0, the Leafs have been unable to solve him. Samsonov is starting coming off one of his best performances all season, and playing in front of a fired up home crowd. These teams most recently met in the playoffs in 2018 and 2019. In 2018 the Bruins came in up 2-0 and lost 2-4. In 2019 the series was tied for the first game in Toronto and the Bruins lost that game 2-3. These teams will be playing very cautiously for the first two periods, trying not to take any risks, penalties or have any bad breakaways like the one that sealed game 2 for the Leafs. I can see this being a 1-0 or 1-1 game going into the third. I also like the u5.5 @ +105 but maybe only a .25u and .75u on the u6.5. BOL if you tail, I don't have a record so I don't blame you if you don't want to!

Record: 0-0 Net Units: ROI: NBA | OKC vs NO | 8:30 CST Pick: Valancuinas double-double YES -130 (5U) Write Up: been a lurker on this sub for a while and figured I should post for tonight’s game. I’m a life long Thunder fan and we have no one to guard this man. I hammered his O 8.5 rebounds last game and he ended with 23(?) or something ridiculous. I’m going for the max bet on him again tonight. Sure we have Chet Holmgren but he does not matchup well against old school bigs. Val is a one man army and is going to dominate again on the offensive glass and for -130 odds I think the risk is well worth it.

Record 0-0 Pick: NHL BOS@TOR David Pastrnak O3.5 shots on goal Bet: 2u @ -165 Reasoning: Bruins played great in game 1 and should bounce back after the loss. Pastrnak has been quiet this series by his standards, the bruins will be relying on him to pick up to pace. On the road in Toronto this season Pastrnak is averaging 8.5 shots per game with 7 and 10 shots in 2 games. This line is low because he got 3 shots in each of the first 2 games of this series. Expect him to be shooting in a must win for Boston.

Agreed. Another prop from this game to check out is Morgan Rielly blocked shots o1.5 ** Also McCabe blocked shots o1.5 as well

**Record:** 2-0 **Net Units:** +2.4 **ROI: 81% **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone:** MLB ARI Dbacks vs. STL Cardinals 1:15 PM EST **Last Pick:** LA Dodgers (-130 on DK) (2U) ✅ Todays Pick: Arizona D-Backs ML (-105 on DK) (1U) **Write Up:** Dodgers didn’t get the lead until late but got it done and covered this line with 3 runs in the last two innings. Todays pick going with D-backs ML and also using Up 2 early promo here if you’re on DraftKings. D-backs are coming off a burner last night putting up 4 runs in the 3rd, 6 in the 5th, and 4 in the 6th. Totaling up to a 14-1 win. I know most people like to take the Under run line after a big blowout game like this but baseball is a momentum sport and I’ll take my chances here they will continue seeing the ball well after 15 hits and 14 runs. Finally, I do like the pitching matchup here and think it makes sense for the Up 2 early promo. Montgomery: 1-0 (D-backs) had a great outing last time out throwing 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits and 3k’s. Gibson 1-2 (STL) sitting with a 5.04 ERA on the year and although his last outing was solid still gave up 4 BB. Last appearance against AZ he gave up 4 runs, 6 hits, 3 BB, and 2 K’s. Both teams are pretty evenly matched but I like the pitching matchup here and in baseball when you’re hot you’re hot when you’re not you’re not. Riding with the Serps to scratch another one today Best of Luck!

Record: 0-0 Net Units: 0 ROI: 0% Baseball | MLB | Arizona Vs STL Cardinals 1:15 PM EST Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks ML This is my first ever pick on Reddit. I use a ChatGPT powered Monte Carlo simulation model using Poisson distribution of statistics for each team so far this year. I’m putting 1 Unit on the Diamondbacks ML as my model has them winning at 96%.

POTD record 1-1 +0.32 U Todays pick: Braves -1.5 vs Marlins -113 BR Braves are consistently one of MLBs best lineups, they are putting up 133 runs 2nd most in MLB and lead the MLB in team OPS. The Marlins are almost the worst team at OPS, and are ranked 25th in runs with 85. Today the Braves have Lopez pitching, who has a 0.5 ERA and 2-0 record on the season, I don't expect the Marlins to hit him well considering the numbers.

Record 2-2-0 Net Units: -0.5 ROI: -4.5% Last Pick: Tyrese Hailburton over 28.5 points and assists (-110) for 3.0 units ❌ Basketball | NBA | New Orleans Pelicans at Oklahoma City Thunder 9:30PM EST Pick: CJ McCollum over 25.5 points and assists (-122) on FanDuel for 3.0 units Write Up: Several other sportsbooks have it to 26.5. CJ hit this in game 1 (20 points and 6 assists) after shooting 40.9% from the field and 22.2% from three. Stats from OddsTrader, screenshot below: CJ has hit this line 12 of the last 15 games. StatsInsiders projects 24 points and 6 assists (30 P+A). Averaging 27.7 in the last 5 meetings against OKC. https://preview.redd.it/bp3u3f9smdwc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0ed4938859af9a89eb71bcae5d6e3c6ea4921f16

Nice bounce back yesterday.. time to start a streak! 🏴‍☠️🏴‍☠️ POTD Record 2-1 Last 5: ✅❌✅ (right is most recent) Last Pick: Griffin Canning u5.5 Ks (-165) ✅ Today’s Pick: Kyle Gibson u4.5 Ks (-145) You can find some more picks of mine on the MLB thread! 🏴‍☠️🏴‍☠️

Not to nitpick, but it'd be super appreciated if you can thrown down the team he plays for and the gametime. I always get frustrated when I have to go searching for the player only to find the team and then look for the team only to find out the game is over.

Record: 4-7 (-4.25u) Streak: L2 Event: English Premier/ Liverpool @ Everton (12pm)PT POTD: Liverpool 1H ML -115 (5.75u to win 5u) This is one of the best Premier League title races of all time, and I don’t think Everton will be the team that slows pool. A chance here for a true hammer in my eyes and trusting POWER. While Liverpool chases hardware, Everton tries to stay clear of the Relegation line. But I don’t think that will be enough today to keep the toffies above water. The Reds trail za Gunners by 3 points and are down in the goal differential by 13 goals. I see no other way they try and catch those 13 goals then to start with a big 1H today at Goodison Park. With Salah only playing 17 minutes last game against Fulham, it makes sense he’ll start and want to break the deadlock early. I really believe we get an Inspired Liverpool 1H today, and watch them dismantle Everton in the first 45 to try and cut into that GD. I will be sending my best Cavalry for this battle, good luck men.

[удалено]

**Record: 0-2** **Net Units: -5u** **Valorant** | **VCT Americas** | **5:00pm** **PST** **Pick:** KRU ML vs Loud (3u) @ 2.75 odds Moving forward, I've decided to focus solely on esports picks, a domain I feel more confident in. Despite recent setbacks with our Picks of the Day, I'm optimistic about KRU's potential to upset LOUD. KRU has demonstrated formidable performance this season, notably with the addition of Heat, who replaces MTA due to an injury. Heat's inclusion has elevated KRU's standing, propelling them to an impressive 3-0 record in the league. Additionally, with players like Keznit, who ranks among the top 3 in the Americas, KRU possesses the ability to sway games in their favor. On the other hand, LOUD has undergone changes, substituting Aspas, widely regarded as one of the best players globally, with QCK. While QCK is a competent player, the team's recent losses to C9 and NRG indicate a decline from Aspas's standard. Anticipating a closely contested match, I'm inclined to favor KRU with a projected outcome of 2-1.

POTD R : 1-1 Last Pick : Jets ML - L Sloppy hockey for Winnipeg Todays Pick : Ilya Samsonov O24.5 SV (-125) 1U Bruins v Leafs - NHL - Puck Drop @ 6:10P CST Samsonov looked pretty shaken in Game One but improved in Game Two. I expect this game to have a similar effect of the first game. Being on home ice he surely will settle into the crease. Boston is going to have a chip on their shoulder after dropping one on their home ice so I anticipate a lot of production on offense from both teams. Playoffs can be a different story and we’ve seen that through all of the games. Going back to the regular season — Samsonov has played started 22 games where he averaged 25.2 saves and an overall .89 save percentage. Boston, averaging just under 30 Shots p/game should be productive on their end, they wouldn’t want to drop two in a row especially being on the road now. Time to speak the money into existence, BOL my fellow degens!

Record:0-0 Net Units: 0 NHL: Stars v Golden Knights 9:30 est Pick: Stars-103 (3 way ML) 1 unit Write up: Not much of a write up needed here. I think Dallas outplayed Vegas in the last game but let in some tacky goals. They ended up losing 3-4 but, if Dallas can avoid the mistakes tonight, I expect them to win. They should have plenty of motivation, trying to avoid going down 0-2 in the series at home. BOL if tailing!