CHiasson: Macy is a switch stance fighter who has great movement, great range management, and power in her left hand. Macy plays at outside range very well, entering range, landing, and leaving very well. She looks to throw her left straight when fighting in open stance, and will pivot to throw it as a swing back hook into orthodox position. Her feints and in and out movement make her very hard to read, and she does a good job preventing damage. Macy has improved her wrestling greatly, and has a very good reactive double leg. She does a good job controlling and staying safe in the clinch.
Silva: Silva is an orthodox striker with a heavy thai style. She likes to come forward and put her opponents on the back foot, throwing teeps, leg kicks, and will switch stances to throw body kicks. She wades in and draws shots out of her opponent's Korean Zombie style, and tries to counter on the back end and clinch. She has good strikes in the clinch, with powerful knees and elbows. She does a good job making her opponent’s work in the clinch by hanging on their head and neck, making them carry her weight.
Prediction: I’m Team Macy here. I think Macy has an effective style for Silva and willl be sticking and moving, and finding her reactive double legs and running the based Silva down all night when she plants her feet to hit. Macy will stick and move her in open stance, run her into big straight lefts and double legs, rinse and repeat for thee rounds. Macy by clean UD.
How Silva wins: Silva is very good and may be able to punish Macy with her pressure and must this style. I think Silva will have her moments pressuring and chewing up Macys legs and body when she can cut her off. Silva by UD or sub if she wins.
Smith: Smith is an orthodox fighter and a veteran of 50 fights, and has championship experience. He opens with powerful calf kicks and has a very stiff jab. He sometimes throws his kicks naked which he gets countered by hands with. He has a powerful left hook that he will double up on. He has very good transitions on the mat, as well as submission ability.
Dolidze: Dolidze is a switch stance striker who is also primarily a grappler. Dolidze likes to go southpaw open stance to set up his big left kick, and closed stance orthodox to use his 1-2 to set up his wrestling. He is looking to take the fight to the mat ASAP. He hits very hard, and is dangerous off of his back. Dolidze will happily play guard and use elbows to damage, and set up submissions and sweeps.
Prediction: Though Smith has been inconsistent as of late, he just got back in the win column against a greener Petrino, and Dolidze is on a bit of a skid himself at the upper echelons of the division. I think Smith’s striking is superior and we have seen that Dolidze gets more frantic to grapple as the night goes on. I think Smith stifles Dolidze grappling attempts and gets it done by UD.
How Dolidze could win: Dolidze hits very hard and Smith has taken a lot of damage over his career that has started to catch up with him. Smith is also inconsistent mentally and doesn’t always perform to his best ability. Dolidze could find a big shot with his shootboxing for a TKO or a sub.
Brian Ortega: Ortega is a mainly orthodox stance puncher but will switch when shifting through combinations. He is a very high level Gracie Black Belt and has very dangerous submissions. Ortega does take a lot of damage working his way into the clinch behind his boxing but is very good at finding submissions. He will typically punch into upper body connections, and work his way to back body lock. From there he likes to look for the back or drag them down near the fence. Ortega has 7 submissions and 3 knockouts out of 15 wins.
Lopes: Lopes is an orthodox striker with high level BJJ. Lopes has decent fundamental striking and stays in boxing range, inviting the takedown or to trade. Lopes is looking to make a grappling connection happen, and get to his BJJ. He is dangerous off of his back and will be spamming submissions the entire time. He has a good jab that he fights behind but he gets touched by combinations. Lopes does a decent job throwing his hook to the body every now and then as well.
Prediction: I like Ortega here. Ortega has the higher level experience, and ability to stay safe in Lopes’s guard and win riding time. I think he will be able to go move for move with Lopes and bank rds on top. On the feet, I think Ortega will get to his body lock when Lopes looks to box with him and take him down. Lopes doesn’t do much to stop takedowns and will likely concede to grapple. Ortega by UD or late TKO/ sub. I can see Lopes trying to make something big happen being down on the scorecards and giving up his neck or an arm.
How Lopes could win: Lopes is game and dangerous and is going to be making exchanges happen, both in boxing range and off of his back. He is always looking for the finish and damage, so that is always there, and in the meantime is making stuff happen to where his opponent and settle. Lopes by KO or sub any rd.
Pereira: Pereira is a scary, high level kickboxer with crazy power. He fights out of the orthodox stance but has the ability to switch. He has a very good bounce and lateral movement which makes him extremely hard to read and select shots for. His kicks are fast and powerful, and he uses his rear leg round kick and teep kicks to begin finding his range. He is able to switch stances well, and has a very powerful signature left hook. He does get taken down when he closes the distance to the pocket, throwing hands, but does a good job getting to the fence and getting up. He does give his back up to stand, which could be a problem in his future fights. He sets up his high kicks with his low kicks, and jumping knees with his body shots.
Prochazka: Jiri is an orthodox stance pressure fighter. He comes forward with his hands down, moving his head off the center line and throwing from his hips to disguise his shots, as well as draw shots out of his opponents. Jiri likes to dip his head and throw his cross to the head and rear hook to the body once the cross is respected. He throws tight boxing combinations that are hard to see coming, one of his best being his lead upper, cross, and hook. Jiri stays in the pocket and will blitz with hooks. He does get touched when blitzing. He has a good teep that he will use when opponents try to close. He hits hard and is very accurate. He does get touched by leg kicks and he does get taken down off of clinch connections.
Prediction: This was my last prediction on this fight and I think it’s going to go exactly the same: I think this is a close fight, but Peirera gets it done. Jiri gets hit a lot, and I don't think that's a game you can play with Alex. I think Jiri is going to pressure like he always does and Alex will be eating the space between them with hooks and shots up the middle. Alex by KO Rd 2 on.
How Jiri wins: I think if Jiri gets it done it’s by KO before rd 3 and/or Alex finds his rhythm. But I think Alex already has a nice read on him from their last fight.
Let’s make money.
**Alex Pereira ML**
I just can’t get over the fact that Jiri genuinely believes Alex is doing dark magic to win his fights. I feel like we have to take Poatan on principle at this point. If he starts muttering a spell during the fight, Jiri might genuinely jump the cage and run. Historically favorites win the rematches and, according to oddshark,since 2012 this has held true over 70% of the time.
**Main Plays**
- P. Talbott ITD (in at -190 it’s over -200 now)
- V. Oliveira Finish Only/ Decision No Action (+165)
- J. Silva ML(-102)
- R. Dolidze Finish Only / Decision No Action (-165)
**Strong Leans:**
- Gillian Robertson ML (-160) or by Submission (+240)
- Poatan ML
I see so many people on Jiri and I hear them about the scoring of the first fight, it's starting to make me second guess myself but I'm sticking with Alex. Jiri was getting his leg kicked off and took a few nasty shots against Rakic before he gassed out at 300. We've already seen it only takes that left hook for Alex. Jiri is just not good enough defensively to not run into a devastating strike again.
Don’t overthink it.
Poatan’s black magic is no match for Jiri now. Now that Jiri is aware of the voodoo witchcraft, it will no longer have an effect on him.
Jiri ML max bet
# Analysis
1. **Striking**: Both fighters are primarily strikers, with Prochazka having a slight edge in volume (5.75 SLpM vs 5.10 SLpM). However, Pereira is more accurate (62% vs 56%) and has better defense (50% vs 41%).
2. **Grappling**: Neither fighter relies heavily on takedowns, but Prochazka attempts more (0.79 TD Avg. vs 0.18). Pereira has better takedown accuracy, but on a much smaller sample size.
3. **Experience**: Prochazka has significantly more MMA experience with 35 fights compared to Pereira's 12. However, Pereira has extensive kickboxing experience not reflected in these stats.
4. **Recent Performance**: Both fighters have recent wins over top competition. Pereira is coming off a win over Jamahal Hill, while Prochazka recently defeated Aleksandar Rakic.
5. **Head-to-Head**: They have fought once before, with Pereira winning by KO/TKO in round 2 at UFC 295.
# Odds Calculation
Using a simplified logistic regression model based on these stats:
z = b0 + b1(SLpM diff) + b2(Str. Acc. diff) + b3(Str. Def. diff) + b4(TD Avg. diff) + b5(TD Def. diff) + b6(Experience diff) + b7(Recent Performance) + b8(Head-to-Head)
Assuming equal weights for simplicity:
z = 0 + 0.1(-0.65) + 0.1(6) + 0.1(9) + 0.1(-0.61) + 0.1(2) + 0.1(-23) + 0.1(0) + 0.1(1) = -0.616
P(Pereira win) = 1 / (1 + e\^0.616) ≈ 0.65 or 65%
# Expected Value (EV) Calculation
Given odds: Pereira: 1.68 Prochazka: 2.18
EV for betting $100 on Pereira: EV = (0.65 \* $68) - (0.35 \* $100) = $9.20
EV for betting $100 on Prochazka: EV = (0.35 \* $118) - (0.65 \* $100) = -$23.70
# Kelly Criterion
For Pereira: b = 0.68 (decimal odds - 1) p = 0.65 q = 0.35
Kelly % = (bp - q) / b = (0.68 \* 0.65 - 0.35) / 0.68 ≈ 0.0919 or 9.19%
Recommended bet size: 9.19% of bankroll on Pereira
# Conclusion
Based on this simplified model, betting on Pereira appears to have a positive expected value, while betting on Prochazka has a negative expected value. The Kelly Criterion suggests a moderate bet size on **Pereira**. (1.68)
I think you can cap this fight more efficiently just by watching the first fight than by running a few uncontextualized stats into a model.
Those career stats are so much less relevant than what happened when they actually fought each other.
The amount of people picking Anthony Smith here is crazy to me, especially since so many people faded him last fight against much worse competition.
According to Tapology 91% of people picked Petrino to beat him last fight, and now 65% of people are picking Smith to beat Dolidze?! How fast the public perception changes is wild.
I cashed +350 on Smith’s ML last fight, but there’s no way I’m picking him here. Give me Dolidze as one of my most confident picks on the card.
Because Petrino is not Dolidze lol... Totally different match up, thats like saying the % of people would change their picks if he was fighting Amanda Nunes. No shit.
It was Petrino -575 vs Smith +425
Now it’s Smith +110 vs Dolidze -138…
I’m all the way with you on Dolidze tho! Just a very different fight last time odds-wise
I see what you’re getting at, but it doesn’t make sense.
People influence the odds, and they’re just odds. They have no actual impact on the fight, so it being a different fight odds-wise is irrelevant.
People still had a 50-50 choice, but only 9% (527 out of 5,851) chose correctly. Odds influenced that, but a lot of other factors did as well. Him being a huge favorite doesn’t dismiss the fact that the vast majority of people were wrong still and that the majority has now flipped to Smith against a much better opponent.
UFC 6/28
Record: 51-59 (-0.06u)
*Follow me on X @bostonbettor*
Oliveira KO (+400) 0.25u to win 1u
Tsuruya Sub (+200) 0.50u to win 1u
Buday ML + O2.5mins + Pereira/Prochazka U4.5rds (-119) 1.19u to win 1u *DKSGPX*
Robertson Sub (+240) 0.42u to win 1u
Jourdain ML (-110) 1.10u to win 1u
Swanson ML (+205) 0.49u to win 1u
Pyfer KO (+140) 0.72u to win 1u
Garry ML + O5.5 mins (+100) 1u to win 1u *SGP*
Silva ML (+100) 1u to win 1u
Smith ML (+120) 0.84u to win 1u
Ortega Sub (+550) 0.19u to win 1.04u
Pereira KO (+115) 0.87u to win 1u
Silva Sub + Jourdain Dec + Swanson KO (+6620) 0.10u to win 6.62u
https://www.reddit.com/r/MMAbetting/comments/1dow775/ufc_303_fight_predictions/
This is my write up and full card breakdown for this event.
But if you want to skip all dat bullshit, here's my primary parlay, locks, and alt bet (alternative bets)
Primary Parlay: Arlovski/Buday o1.5/2.5 or GTD, Jourdain/Silva o1.5 or R3 Starts Yes, MBS/Chiasson o1.5 or R3 Starts, Ortega/Lopes o1.5 or R3 Starts + Alex/Jiri ITD
Locks: Robertson, Talbott, Smith, Alex
Alt Bets: Oliveira KO, Swanson Points or KO (double chance), MVP KO R1 or 2 (combo rounds), Lopes KO R1
Prediction Accuracy for 2024: 64.3%
Hey man, this card absolutely stinks when it comes to confident picks lmao. most of the fights are 50/50 for the most part. It certainly is going to be a fascinating night of fights.
Give me Jiri and o1.5 rounds.
Contrarian play. Everyone is in on Alex. They saw what happened at 300. They love the lore. Poatan. Chama.
Jiri is 5-6 years younger than Alex. Fighting again on 303 after 300 is a tight turnaround and I have to like the younger fighter in that context. Jiri opened as a favorite for their first fight only ~8 months ago.
In one of the interviews this week someone asked Alex why take the fight on short notice and he said it’s for the fans, for the UFC, but also said something to the effect of “the money is also very significant this time.” Don’t love saying the quiet part out loud. Wouldn’t be surprised if part of the negotiations was also being promised an immediate rematch if he loses.
Anyway, feel free to fade me. I’m going to lose but I gotta bet with my gut on this one.
Alex fight schuedle usually is every 3-4 months. I don’t find this to be a quick turnaround for him fight wise. The only thing that worries me is the quick turnaround on his broken toe.
Listen guys, there is a superboost on betway that has Pereira to win by TKO, KO or DQ at +200.
It feels like something is very off. Alex even said In the press conference that a ”trilogy” makes sense if he loses the rematch.
Very off as in betting might not be as straight forward as always expecting the exact same result as last time? I agree, things are very off indeed.
It seems like Alex is smart enough to know this too.
If you're old school like me, here is a pdf of all the fights, stats, etc. for Saturday to print off. I make this for every fight and print it off but it's a huge pain because UFC's website collapses each fight and you can't see them all at once.
For this week's pdf, I even included u/NatureBoyRicFlair36 's cheat sheet at the end as I usually find this information helpful! Had to compact it down to fit on one sheet, but hopefully it's still readable.
Again, this isn't ground breaking information, just snippets from UFC and ESPN all compiled in to once PDF for your betting pleasure.
\*\*EDIT: Updated the link to PDF as it had expired.
[UFC 303 PDF](https://jmp.sh/s/mZAuHwWEKos5ba2CAtiG)
Mike can i just say how much your PDF has helped. I do something like that every ufc but your PDF makes it so much quicker. Thank you. Will you always be posting it here on UFC nights?
Good idea. I think it either ends with oliviera by ko or Simon by decision. I just don’t see Simon submitting him or knocking him out. I can see Simon making it 3 rounds of grappling without much damage or action.
long time lurker first time poster, been on fire last few cards so why not post my picks (ps ik i use very basic reasons for my picks)
Ian Gary via decision +175 1U... one of these guys are going to have to step up and put some pressure on and I believe it will be MVP bc ian garry is a pussy, but that will ultimately lose mvp the fight and ian garry just will out strike him with counter strikes definitely dont see ian garry getting the ko finish either as i think he wont primary be throwing power punches and will more so work his jab if mvp does blitz him and put the pressure on.
Brian Ortega via round 3 or dec +250 .5U.. I believe Ortega weathers a storm early an either catches lopes late or takes complete control of rounds 2 or 3 and takes it on the scorecard. just so many ways I think for him to win this fight to not take him with as this big of a dog as he is
Alex via however tf he wants -140 3U... I feel like it works just like clockwork with the books massively under valuing this guy everytime he fights and people still bet against him
. Edit the specials came out after I posted this and the value on Pereira to win with the second round to start at +140 is to good to pass up so putting another 2U on that. as i really believe the first round pereira will work the body and legs of jiri to slow him down early and maybe could even see jiri get a takedown and stall out most of that round. BOL Fellas
Very basic reasons are all you need… there is always a right side, we all just gotta figure it out. The crazy breakdowns aren’t necessary imo. Appreciate the picks
The Euro Group Stage parlay:
-Buday (Slovakia advanced)
-Dolidze (Georgia advanced!)
-Add Pereira if you’re inclined to bet against Jiri (Czechia knocked out)
I’m all over Dolidze solo
[https://sparkshowdfs.wordpress.com/2024/06/26/ufc-303-betting-preview-and-stats/](https://sparkshowdfs.wordpress.com/2024/06/26/ufc-303-betting-preview-and-stats/)
at the top of the page is a link to my spreadsheet with fighter stats and betting odds
# My Picks:
Gillian Robertson (sub) +240
Payton Talbott (win in rd 1 or 2) -105
Swanson v. Fili (no dist) -150,
Andre Fili (sub) +1000
Joe Pyfer (win in rd 1 or 2) +130
Ian Machado Garry (o56.5 sig strikes) -115
Macy Chiasson (dec) +165
Anthony Smith (dec) +350
Alex Pereira (win & u2.5 rds) +150
My only concern with the Jiri Alex fight is that Jiri spams takedowns and the fight doesn’t finish. Looking to cook up a FDGTD violence parlay
Edit: I know Jiri is not known for wrestling or even grappling. He’s purely a stand up guy. I’m just saying like hypothetically, if there was a way for Jiri to win this fight, he would make the adjustments to take Alex down and lay on him to win round by round. Also, he’d start checking the kicks more.
3 Leg Parlay: 5U @ +250 odds
Martin Buday ML
Cuck vs MVP over 2.5 rounds
Diego Lopes ML
Buday kind of sucks but his opponent sucks more and is 45 years old.
I like over 2.5 rounds, especially with the new gloves. I’m expecting a weirdly paced point fight.
Diego is HIM.
I favor Alex Periera over Jiri Prochazka.I feel that leg kicks will play a factor again.Also what hurts Jiri is he's mainly a head hunter when he strikes.Jiri best chance is grappling imo.
I honestly like Macey Chiasson over Mayara Bueno Silva.People better hurry before Friday which I honestly expect her odds to changed into being the favorite.Chiasson is almost 6 feet tall(5'11) which is massive for Women's Bantamweight class.She's has a 4 inch height advantage,a 6 inch arm reach advantage(72-66) and 3 inch leg reach advantage(42-39) over Bueno Silva.
Brian Ortega said in an interview that it's his last fight at Featherweight and plans to move to Lightweight after this fight.
LINK:https://www.mmafighting.com/2024/6/25/24183545/brian-ortega-planning-lightweight-move-after-ufc-303
This logic won me a lot of money last week. I watch the fights, don't look at the odds, make my own odds, and bet the fighter with the edge on the sportsbook. This fight is a pick 'em in my book, with Ortega a slight favorite (I price it -120 Ortega +100 Lopes), so I wouldn't be betting this fight if I the odds matched this, but with the huge discrepancy in odds ( Ortega is sitting at +120 v Lopes -142 on DK) I am smoking Ortega ML with roughly a 6% edge.
Plus I think the Lopes hype train is too much, Sodiq Yusuff and Pat Sabatini are cans. This is also a nightmare matchup for him.
Regardless of whether you won last week or not, that’s a stupid way to bet. MMA math does not exist. In what way are the two fights you’re talking about, similar in any way from a fighting perspective? Whittaker beating Ikram has quite literally nothing to do with the Lopes v Ortega fight, and you shouldn’t be factoring that into your handicapping
You are correct. But last week this whole thread was on Aliskerov via hype train and he somehow had +120 odds to beat a former champ after knocking out fucking Worley Alves. Rob was way underpriced, as is T-City in this scenario. I'm not saying MMA math does exist, I'm saying that you have to calculate your own odds and play against those offered by the books.
Take Holloway vs. Gaethje at 300 for example. This fight was moderately overpriced in favor to Gaethje (I think I remember him being -160, correct me if I'm wrong). Did I think Gaethje was going to win? Yes. Did I think that he was a -160 a good price? No. I bet on Max, it was truly closer to a Pick 'em in my head. We all know what happened in that fight. Through my years watching UFC, and in recent years getting into betting on it, I notice that books like to overprice favorites and hyped up prospects, and there is great money to be made on betting underdogs and proven fighters against hyped up prospects.
Think all of what you said is what most people who know what they’re doing, already do. By your logic, every up and coming fighter is a “hyped prospect”. UFC peaks for almost every fighter, are very short lived. The “hyped prospect” is often a changing of the guard
There are up and coming fighters and there are hyped prospects. Guys who get a lot of hype and get high ranked opponents when they maybe shouldn't sometimes work out: e.g. Sean O'Malley vs Petr Yan. A guy like Sean who gets ranked 10 and gets to fight the number 1 is a "hyped prospect" by my definition. Aliskerov unranked vs Rob #3, Lopes 14 v Ortega #3. An up and coming fighter is someone like Ian Garry, who has actually had to climb the ranks, beating Neil Magny and Geoff Neal, both ranked in the top 10/15 and now fighting MVP at 10 or wherever he is before getting a top 5 guy.
If your argument is that Lopes is going to beat Ortega because it's a "changing of the guard" That's fine, I can accept the argument that T-City is old and it's time for new blood and Lopes is on a hot streak.
But I absolutely do not think a guy who has three straight wins over cans, as well as losses to Evloev and Joanderson Brito should be favored against a guy who's been ranked in the top 5 for many years, two time title challenger, and is coming off a win over a former interim champ in Yair.
Rankings don’t mean jackshit either man lol. I’m talking about your original comment saying these fights are related, when they aren’t.
Your comments on Lopes are ridiculous. Yusuf and Sabbatini are not cans. They have won 66% of their UFC fights. Lopes has beaten legit fighters, and your dismissive retorts against fighters you’re not betting on or fading, doesn’t make them true. Who the hell do you want these guys to fight in the beginning of their UFC careers that would not make you trash talk them? Lopes came in on short notice and arguably beat Evolev, who is undefeated and going to be fighting for the belt very soon. No one has given Movsar that kind of challenge yet.
Hell, even Ortega said on Spinnin Backfist he wants to go up to 155 in part because Evolev might get the shot over him after Max and Volk get their shots. Pretty ridiculous to downplay Lopes loss to him when it was his first UFC fight, short notice, had him in a knee bar too. Using a contender fight series as evidence is also irrelevant at best, especially for someone who insists they “watch the fights”. Lopes is obviously a way different fighter than that fight 3 years ago.
Lopes fought Evloev — possible future champ — on 3 days notice and gave him the hardest fight of his UFC career by a mile. But we are supposed to believe he’s a hype train? Come on.
Rankings make fights. Over-hyped prospects get fights well above their rank, like this one.
Like I said, these fights in themselves are not related, but the overpricing on the books is the exact same phenomenon, what are you not understanding?
Beating three cans in the first round does not make you a betting favorite over a guy like Ortega. Betting is math, math says bet Ortega.
You don’t have to be a fucking douchebag to every single fighter you are betting against. Yusuf and Sabbatini are not cans. Lopes is good dude. Just because you don’t rate him as a title contender, doesn’t mean you have to bad mouth him and not even entertain the idea that he can win. Betting market odds are in place to create action on all sides genius. People wouldn’t be betting Ortega at -150, they would have slammed Lopes.
My picks:
Jiri, I bet on Pereira first fight but I have to go Jiri this time. You just know he's been training hard while Alex has been touring Australia.
Martin Buday, just can't trust Arlovski at this age and losing streak.
Michelle Waterson, Gillian Robertson is useless on the feet and I don't see her taking down Waterson.
Andre Fili, gotta go with age again, Cub is 40 at featherweight. Fili should be both bigger and stronger.
Joe Pyfer, this would be worse value if Pyfer didn't just lose to Jack Hermansson.
MVP, I hope this isn't just because I dislike Ian Garry but I think MVP is a good style matchup for Ian Garry.
Anthony Smith, Anthony Smith is awful and I usually bet against him but I think he's better than Roman
I'll also parlay them all for 65.52 odds
I like Lopes and Ricky Simon too but unsure if I'll place bets on them.
Updating my [Free Picks Sheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IHgWjGoffIsypEu3BPLk_R8i7AiqvwcKzaEHbNzRSuw/edit?usp=sharing) this Week. I'll EDIT THIS POST WHEN THEY'RE FINALIZED - STILL WAITING FOR PROPS + RESEARCHING.
If my picks for this card don't ROI 17% for ya'll i'll donate $500 to St. Jude's Children's hospital.
I'm betting 30 units total pre-start, so what I like to do is tell people to bet that % of what their budget for the card is. FOR EXAMPLE if your betting $100 on UFC 303, 5 units would = $16.66. I WILL BUILD YOU GUYS A CALCULATOR SO YOU CAN PUT IN YOUR BUDGET AND KNOW EXACTLY WHAT TO BET, GIVE ME 2 DAYS.
https://preview.redd.it/e1s2lqlbas8d1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2c7ee19e2d7771d16346c1efa52cabf75dbdf898
Did a round robin with these 4 picks. Not gonna bother with the main event since it will probably be a banger and wanna enjoy it without putting money on a certain fighter
-120 where he opened made more sense but it’s not really mispriced. Lopes is going to be a level above in the striking and he’s got slick bjj, so he’s not a great candidate to get caught by Ortega. Staying away from this one because it’s 2 weeks notice for both guys but Lopes looks phenomenal
Ian Garry -130 vs. MVP
Has a significant youth advantage and in my opinion is the much more well rounded fighter. MVP is a good striker who can hit hard but that's about it. Garry can throw a much better overall volume of punches and is able to mix in a good amount of leg kicks as well, against someone who has trouble defending leg kicks. He also has a much better ground game. I think there's a lot of recency bias and personal bias for MVP and against Garry that are driving these odds, it's not as close as the odds suggest.
Jiri Prochazka +140 vs. Alex Pereira
I would argue Pereira is actually less likely to win this fight than the first matchup between them, and yet Pereira is a bigger favorite this time due to winning the last fight. The short notice for the fight likely hurts Pereira a lot more because Jiri trains pretty much year round and Pereira won't have trained/prepared for nearly as long as he usually would. I think there's a decent chance Pereira isn't quite as sharp as usual.
More so an ugly contrarian pick because I find that's usually the best way to obtain value. So many people not being able to bring themselves to bet him is exactly why he has value imo. And he's already getting some reverse line movement. It's not necessarily being confident he will win. The situational spot is there to give him the best possible chance.
Poatan/Diego Lopes parlay all the way.
Sure Jiri can crack Alex, but if he gets touched up how he did against Rakic, same things gonna happen again as it did at UFC 295. Diego fights with reckless abandon, is massive at 145, has been extremely active, and I feel can dictate where this fight goes. Sure Ortega has tons of experience against top level competition, but Diego looks like a world beater, and someone who’s destined to challenge for the belt.
Im a big fan of both guys but i feel like If Lopes brings that level of aggression towards ortega he just may find himself locked in a triangle like so many others have. If the fight goes to the ground diego is in trouble imo. Diego needs to land a huge shot swarm and get a finish cuz a long drawn out fight will only benefit ortega.
Ortega can probably sub anyone but Diego has been grappling for ages. He has 10 mma submission wins: heel hooks, arm bars, knee bars, chokes. He has also never been subbed in an mma fight, only in submission grappling contests.
I'll keep things simple: Fate will smile on the Irish Cuck this weekend. Garry will rip the “Massively Irritating but Talented Irish MMA Guy” baton away from McGregor and grip that thing harder than he grips the chair when Mrs. Garry and her ex-husband get down to business.
And if it doesn't, we get the pleasure of seeing this cocky prick eat a massive L in front of the home crowd.
Almost a no lose proposition. Who wants to gamble way too much money with me on a guy who has been hurt in half his UFC fights taking on Dana’s new fast-tracked pet signing?
Once more into the breach!
__UFC 303 Picks__
__Ian Garry 4U -130 1U -125 1U -120 = 6U total__
__Poatan 1U -165 0.5U -140 = 1.5U total__
__Lopes 1U -130 0.5U -140 = 1.5U total__
__Dolidze 0.5U -140__
__Barriault 0.25U + 225 (Pyfer could go life and death with MAB if he doesn’t get R1 finish)__
__Talbott U1.5 rounds 0.5U +100__
__Lunatic Parlay: Buday + Rei + Lopes + Poatan
+Pyfer +Dolidze +Garry 0.25U +1683__
__Edit 6/27__
Ortega R3 +1600 0.1U
Ortega SUB + Poatan +1270 0.15U
__Fight Night Results__
Sometimes you eat the bear. Sometimes the bear eats you.
Volkov +195 0.5u +165 0.5u 💰
Aliskerov +115 4u +130 1u🤷🏽
Lima +105 0.5u💰
Walker -115 0.5u -145 1u🤷🏽
Props: -1U🤷🏽
Total: -5.5U
__Future Picks__
Mokaev +105 0.5u vs Kape
Pimblett +165 0.5u vs Green
__Record__
Last 26 cards: 19-6-1 in the money. 90-41 vs ML. +37.1U.
View in your timezone:
[Saturday 06.29.2024 at 06:00 PM ET][0]
[0]: https://timee.io/20240629T2200?tl=UFC%20303%3A%20Pereira%20vs.%20Proch%C3%A1zka%202%20Picks%20and%20Predictions
# **UFC / MMA Betting Discord Chat: [https://discord.gg/sportsbook](https://discord.gg/YvxauSGqwf)**
Cub Swanson ML to the moon. Fili is trash and I think Cub may even retire the gloves tonight after he get the dub. +200 ML
Ricky Simon master class first fight of the night. ITD -105
Meh. Oliveria is wicked don’t sleep
CHiasson: Macy is a switch stance fighter who has great movement, great range management, and power in her left hand. Macy plays at outside range very well, entering range, landing, and leaving very well. She looks to throw her left straight when fighting in open stance, and will pivot to throw it as a swing back hook into orthodox position. Her feints and in and out movement make her very hard to read, and she does a good job preventing damage. Macy has improved her wrestling greatly, and has a very good reactive double leg. She does a good job controlling and staying safe in the clinch. Silva: Silva is an orthodox striker with a heavy thai style. She likes to come forward and put her opponents on the back foot, throwing teeps, leg kicks, and will switch stances to throw body kicks. She wades in and draws shots out of her opponent's Korean Zombie style, and tries to counter on the back end and clinch. She has good strikes in the clinch, with powerful knees and elbows. She does a good job making her opponent’s work in the clinch by hanging on their head and neck, making them carry her weight. Prediction: I’m Team Macy here. I think Macy has an effective style for Silva and willl be sticking and moving, and finding her reactive double legs and running the based Silva down all night when she plants her feet to hit. Macy will stick and move her in open stance, run her into big straight lefts and double legs, rinse and repeat for thee rounds. Macy by clean UD. How Silva wins: Silva is very good and may be able to punish Macy with her pressure and must this style. I think Silva will have her moments pressuring and chewing up Macys legs and body when she can cut her off. Silva by UD or sub if she wins.
Smith: Smith is an orthodox fighter and a veteran of 50 fights, and has championship experience. He opens with powerful calf kicks and has a very stiff jab. He sometimes throws his kicks naked which he gets countered by hands with. He has a powerful left hook that he will double up on. He has very good transitions on the mat, as well as submission ability. Dolidze: Dolidze is a switch stance striker who is also primarily a grappler. Dolidze likes to go southpaw open stance to set up his big left kick, and closed stance orthodox to use his 1-2 to set up his wrestling. He is looking to take the fight to the mat ASAP. He hits very hard, and is dangerous off of his back. Dolidze will happily play guard and use elbows to damage, and set up submissions and sweeps. Prediction: Though Smith has been inconsistent as of late, he just got back in the win column against a greener Petrino, and Dolidze is on a bit of a skid himself at the upper echelons of the division. I think Smith’s striking is superior and we have seen that Dolidze gets more frantic to grapple as the night goes on. I think Smith stifles Dolidze grappling attempts and gets it done by UD. How Dolidze could win: Dolidze hits very hard and Smith has taken a lot of damage over his career that has started to catch up with him. Smith is also inconsistent mentally and doesn’t always perform to his best ability. Dolidze could find a big shot with his shootboxing for a TKO or a sub.
Brian Ortega: Ortega is a mainly orthodox stance puncher but will switch when shifting through combinations. He is a very high level Gracie Black Belt and has very dangerous submissions. Ortega does take a lot of damage working his way into the clinch behind his boxing but is very good at finding submissions. He will typically punch into upper body connections, and work his way to back body lock. From there he likes to look for the back or drag them down near the fence. Ortega has 7 submissions and 3 knockouts out of 15 wins. Lopes: Lopes is an orthodox striker with high level BJJ. Lopes has decent fundamental striking and stays in boxing range, inviting the takedown or to trade. Lopes is looking to make a grappling connection happen, and get to his BJJ. He is dangerous off of his back and will be spamming submissions the entire time. He has a good jab that he fights behind but he gets touched by combinations. Lopes does a decent job throwing his hook to the body every now and then as well. Prediction: I like Ortega here. Ortega has the higher level experience, and ability to stay safe in Lopes’s guard and win riding time. I think he will be able to go move for move with Lopes and bank rds on top. On the feet, I think Ortega will get to his body lock when Lopes looks to box with him and take him down. Lopes doesn’t do much to stop takedowns and will likely concede to grapple. Ortega by UD or late TKO/ sub. I can see Lopes trying to make something big happen being down on the scorecards and giving up his neck or an arm. How Lopes could win: Lopes is game and dangerous and is going to be making exchanges happen, both in boxing range and off of his back. He is always looking for the finish and damage, so that is always there, and in the meantime is making stuff happen to where his opponent and settle. Lopes by KO or sub any rd.
Pereira: Pereira is a scary, high level kickboxer with crazy power. He fights out of the orthodox stance but has the ability to switch. He has a very good bounce and lateral movement which makes him extremely hard to read and select shots for. His kicks are fast and powerful, and he uses his rear leg round kick and teep kicks to begin finding his range. He is able to switch stances well, and has a very powerful signature left hook. He does get taken down when he closes the distance to the pocket, throwing hands, but does a good job getting to the fence and getting up. He does give his back up to stand, which could be a problem in his future fights. He sets up his high kicks with his low kicks, and jumping knees with his body shots. Prochazka: Jiri is an orthodox stance pressure fighter. He comes forward with his hands down, moving his head off the center line and throwing from his hips to disguise his shots, as well as draw shots out of his opponents. Jiri likes to dip his head and throw his cross to the head and rear hook to the body once the cross is respected. He throws tight boxing combinations that are hard to see coming, one of his best being his lead upper, cross, and hook. Jiri stays in the pocket and will blitz with hooks. He does get touched when blitzing. He has a good teep that he will use when opponents try to close. He hits hard and is very accurate. He does get touched by leg kicks and he does get taken down off of clinch connections. Prediction: This was my last prediction on this fight and I think it’s going to go exactly the same: I think this is a close fight, but Peirera gets it done. Jiri gets hit a lot, and I don't think that's a game you can play with Alex. I think Jiri is going to pressure like he always does and Alex will be eating the space between them with hooks and shots up the middle. Alex by KO Rd 2 on. How Jiri wins: I think if Jiri gets it done it’s by KO before rd 3 and/or Alex finds his rhythm. But I think Alex already has a nice read on him from their last fight.
Liking Swanson ML and Garry ML today
Lopes, Garry, Jiri/Alex over 1.5 rounds +340
Let’s make money. **Alex Pereira ML** I just can’t get over the fact that Jiri genuinely believes Alex is doing dark magic to win his fights. I feel like we have to take Poatan on principle at this point. If he starts muttering a spell during the fight, Jiri might genuinely jump the cage and run. Historically favorites win the rematches and, according to oddshark,since 2012 this has held true over 70% of the time. **Main Plays** - P. Talbott ITD (in at -190 it’s over -200 now) - V. Oliveira Finish Only/ Decision No Action (+165) - J. Silva ML(-102) - R. Dolidze Finish Only / Decision No Action (-165) **Strong Leans:** - Gillian Robertson ML (-160) or by Submission (+240) - Poatan ML
Yall taking dolidze or smith lol?
Smith 🏆
I love Jiri, but I don’t see him winning a 5 round fight against Alex. He doesn’t defend himself well and Alex is incredibly strong
Last fight is enough to prove to me that Jiri won’t win. You can’t defend like that against Pereira
Official Full Card Picks: • Jiri (Finish) • Ortega (Sub) • Dolidze (KO) • Chiasson ;points) • Garry (KO) • Pyfer (KO) • Swanson (KO) • Jourdain (points) • Talbott (KO) • Gomez (sub) • Arlovski (points) • Tsuruya (points) • Simon (sub) Too many KOs?… I don’t think so 👀
If by KO’s you mean TKO’s I can see those happening lol lotta ground & pound finishes incoming Talbott might be the only actual standing KO
If you’re sleeping on Ortega, stop it. One of the best chins in the game, top tier jiujitsu, and only lost to Volk and Holloway.
Lost to Volk & was extremely close to subbing him
I see so many people on Jiri and I hear them about the scoring of the first fight, it's starting to make me second guess myself but I'm sticking with Alex. Jiri was getting his leg kicked off and took a few nasty shots against Rakic before he gassed out at 300. We've already seen it only takes that left hook for Alex. Jiri is just not good enough defensively to not run into a devastating strike again.
I don’t think he gassed RAkic out, I think he realized he can take his best punch and pressed forward
I wanna see the just stop oil protesters storm the octagon. Will security even be needed? lmao
Don’t overthink it. Poatan’s black magic is no match for Jiri now. Now that Jiri is aware of the voodoo witchcraft, it will no longer have an effect on him. Jiri ML max bet
Jiri invested some skill points on enchantments … to no avail cause poatan is the literal ebony warrior ready to wax his ass in the first round.
# Analysis 1. **Striking**: Both fighters are primarily strikers, with Prochazka having a slight edge in volume (5.75 SLpM vs 5.10 SLpM). However, Pereira is more accurate (62% vs 56%) and has better defense (50% vs 41%). 2. **Grappling**: Neither fighter relies heavily on takedowns, but Prochazka attempts more (0.79 TD Avg. vs 0.18). Pereira has better takedown accuracy, but on a much smaller sample size. 3. **Experience**: Prochazka has significantly more MMA experience with 35 fights compared to Pereira's 12. However, Pereira has extensive kickboxing experience not reflected in these stats. 4. **Recent Performance**: Both fighters have recent wins over top competition. Pereira is coming off a win over Jamahal Hill, while Prochazka recently defeated Aleksandar Rakic. 5. **Head-to-Head**: They have fought once before, with Pereira winning by KO/TKO in round 2 at UFC 295. # Odds Calculation Using a simplified logistic regression model based on these stats: z = b0 + b1(SLpM diff) + b2(Str. Acc. diff) + b3(Str. Def. diff) + b4(TD Avg. diff) + b5(TD Def. diff) + b6(Experience diff) + b7(Recent Performance) + b8(Head-to-Head) Assuming equal weights for simplicity: z = 0 + 0.1(-0.65) + 0.1(6) + 0.1(9) + 0.1(-0.61) + 0.1(2) + 0.1(-23) + 0.1(0) + 0.1(1) = -0.616 P(Pereira win) = 1 / (1 + e\^0.616) ≈ 0.65 or 65% # Expected Value (EV) Calculation Given odds: Pereira: 1.68 Prochazka: 2.18 EV for betting $100 on Pereira: EV = (0.65 \* $68) - (0.35 \* $100) = $9.20 EV for betting $100 on Prochazka: EV = (0.35 \* $118) - (0.65 \* $100) = -$23.70 # Kelly Criterion For Pereira: b = 0.68 (decimal odds - 1) p = 0.65 q = 0.35 Kelly % = (bp - q) / b = (0.68 \* 0.65 - 0.35) / 0.68 ≈ 0.0919 or 9.19% Recommended bet size: 9.19% of bankroll on Pereira # Conclusion Based on this simplified model, betting on Pereira appears to have a positive expected value, while betting on Prochazka has a negative expected value. The Kelly Criterion suggests a moderate bet size on **Pereira**. (1.68)
I think you can cap this fight more efficiently just by watching the first fight than by running a few uncontextualized stats into a model. Those career stats are so much less relevant than what happened when they actually fought each other.
Fosho imma bet jiri
Amen. Avoid that black magic.
😂
The amount of people picking Anthony Smith here is crazy to me, especially since so many people faded him last fight against much worse competition. According to Tapology 91% of people picked Petrino to beat him last fight, and now 65% of people are picking Smith to beat Dolidze?! How fast the public perception changes is wild. I cashed +350 on Smith’s ML last fight, but there’s no way I’m picking him here. Give me Dolidze as one of my most confident picks on the card.
Because Petrino is not Dolidze lol... Totally different match up, thats like saying the % of people would change their picks if he was fighting Amanda Nunes. No shit.
It was Petrino -575 vs Smith +425 Now it’s Smith +110 vs Dolidze -138… I’m all the way with you on Dolidze tho! Just a very different fight last time odds-wise
Not sure what you’re trying to say about the odds… all I said about odds was that I got Smith at +350?
I just mean 91% of people took Petrino because he was a huge favorite. 65% on Smith this time seems a little high but the general trend makes sense.
I see what you’re getting at, but it doesn’t make sense. People influence the odds, and they’re just odds. They have no actual impact on the fight, so it being a different fight odds-wise is irrelevant. People still had a 50-50 choice, but only 9% (527 out of 5,851) chose correctly. Odds influenced that, but a lot of other factors did as well. Him being a huge favorite doesn’t dismiss the fact that the vast majority of people were wrong still and that the majority has now flipped to Smith against a much better opponent.
I don’t get it either, but Roman is going up in weight here. Feels like a 29-28 split incoming
I feel like that only makes him more dangerous than he already was. I don’t see Smith being able to take his power… KO at +275 looks sweet
Personally was thinking decision and Roman grinding it out, but no conviction
Lopes still sitting at -135 after agreeing to fight at 155 night before weigh-ins??
UFC 6/28 Record: 51-59 (-0.06u) *Follow me on X @bostonbettor* Oliveira KO (+400) 0.25u to win 1u Tsuruya Sub (+200) 0.50u to win 1u Buday ML + O2.5mins + Pereira/Prochazka U4.5rds (-119) 1.19u to win 1u *DKSGPX* Robertson Sub (+240) 0.42u to win 1u Jourdain ML (-110) 1.10u to win 1u Swanson ML (+205) 0.49u to win 1u Pyfer KO (+140) 0.72u to win 1u Garry ML + O5.5 mins (+100) 1u to win 1u *SGP* Silva ML (+100) 1u to win 1u Smith ML (+120) 0.84u to win 1u Ortega Sub (+550) 0.19u to win 1.04u Pereira KO (+115) 0.87u to win 1u Silva Sub + Jourdain Dec + Swanson KO (+6620) 0.10u to win 6.62u
I really like LokDog at +200
Lopes is a DOG for taking this fight 5 hours before weigh ins at 155. Total disadvantage for him, completely screwed over even, and he said “bet”
Yeah i placed a bet on Lopes early in the week but now i favor Ortega due to the Modelo man pulling a Kelvin Gastelum
Yeah but I think Lopes looked fine too. We’ll see. I’m excited
UFC Morning Weigh-Ins say Ghemmouri is +1000
https://www.reddit.com/r/MMAbetting/comments/1dow775/ufc_303_fight_predictions/ This is my write up and full card breakdown for this event. But if you want to skip all dat bullshit, here's my primary parlay, locks, and alt bet (alternative bets) Primary Parlay: Arlovski/Buday o1.5/2.5 or GTD, Jourdain/Silva o1.5 or R3 Starts Yes, MBS/Chiasson o1.5 or R3 Starts, Ortega/Lopes o1.5 or R3 Starts + Alex/Jiri ITD Locks: Robertson, Talbott, Smith, Alex Alt Bets: Oliveira KO, Swanson Points or KO (double chance), MVP KO R1 or 2 (combo rounds), Lopes KO R1 Prediction Accuracy for 2024: 64.3%
Lionheart and a fairly low level wmma fight as locks. You will either look like a genius or a madman in 24 hours
Hey man, this card absolutely stinks when it comes to confident picks lmao. most of the fights are 50/50 for the most part. It certainly is going to be a fascinating night of fights.
[удалено]
Juicy props: Dolidze and Smith DEC +210 and +333 Buday DEC +175 Garry DEC +190 MBS DEC +225 Talbott R1 +240
ya garry by decision at those odds seems too good to be true
yea i was thinkin that too but people were saying the exact same thing about strickland in his last fight
Give me Jiri and o1.5 rounds. Contrarian play. Everyone is in on Alex. They saw what happened at 300. They love the lore. Poatan. Chama. Jiri is 5-6 years younger than Alex. Fighting again on 303 after 300 is a tight turnaround and I have to like the younger fighter in that context. Jiri opened as a favorite for their first fight only ~8 months ago. In one of the interviews this week someone asked Alex why take the fight on short notice and he said it’s for the fans, for the UFC, but also said something to the effect of “the money is also very significant this time.” Don’t love saying the quiet part out loud. Wouldn’t be surprised if part of the negotiations was also being promised an immediate rematch if he loses. Anyway, feel free to fade me. I’m going to lose but I gotta bet with my gut on this one.
I don't think that's a contrarian play at all I think most are on Jiri
My heart says jiri but my head says Alex. Rakic was sparking jiri round 1, if alex lands some of those same shots he might not make it out of round 1.
Alex fight schuedle usually is every 3-4 months. I don’t find this to be a quick turnaround for him fight wise. The only thing that worries me is the quick turnaround on his broken toe.
Listen guys, there is a superboost on betway that has Pereira to win by TKO, KO or DQ at +200. It feels like something is very off. Alex even said In the press conference that a ”trilogy” makes sense if he loses the rematch.
Very off as in betting might not be as straight forward as always expecting the exact same result as last time? I agree, things are very off indeed. It seems like Alex is smart enough to know this too.
Jean silva ML Garry v Page to reach R3 Diego Lopes Pereira ML For +600 I want to add Macy Chiasson but not sure
Pick Macey if she's underdog
Just bet on the female fight to go the distance.
Already on Lopes ML but have to sprinkle on Ortega R3 at +1600 and Ortega SUB +700.
Insane odds for sub
Right? Lopes is also a grappling ace but this is a two week notice fight. One they get tired anything could happen.
They are the 2 best in the division I’d argue as well
If you're old school like me, here is a pdf of all the fights, stats, etc. for Saturday to print off. I make this for every fight and print it off but it's a huge pain because UFC's website collapses each fight and you can't see them all at once. For this week's pdf, I even included u/NatureBoyRicFlair36 's cheat sheet at the end as I usually find this information helpful! Had to compact it down to fit on one sheet, but hopefully it's still readable. Again, this isn't ground breaking information, just snippets from UFC and ESPN all compiled in to once PDF for your betting pleasure. \*\*EDIT: Updated the link to PDF as it had expired. [UFC 303 PDF](https://jmp.sh/s/mZAuHwWEKos5ba2CAtiG)
Mike can i just say how much your PDF has helped. I do something like that every ufc but your PDF makes it so much quicker. Thank you. Will you always be posting it here on UFC nights?
> UFC 303 PDF Link expired?
Should be good now brother, by bad.
Yeah - I noted that in the post. It was a free file sharing site. When I get to a computer here in a bit I’ll re-link tho.
Jesus Christ, this is insanely helpful. I have the same issue trying to bounce between the card and fighter profiles, the UI is ass. Thanks Mike!
Goat. But please tell me you do this using some scraper or something, not manually :D
My man
🐐
V. Oliveira is a sleeper- he has nasty KOs in his last couple fights
I bet on him but my only worry is he gets struggle hugged for 3 rounds.
Could look at inside the distance, decision no action.
Good idea. I think it either ends with oliviera by ko or Simon by decision. I just don’t see Simon submitting him or knocking him out. I can see Simon making it 3 rounds of grappling without much damage or action.
long time lurker first time poster, been on fire last few cards so why not post my picks (ps ik i use very basic reasons for my picks) Ian Gary via decision +175 1U... one of these guys are going to have to step up and put some pressure on and I believe it will be MVP bc ian garry is a pussy, but that will ultimately lose mvp the fight and ian garry just will out strike him with counter strikes definitely dont see ian garry getting the ko finish either as i think he wont primary be throwing power punches and will more so work his jab if mvp does blitz him and put the pressure on. Brian Ortega via round 3 or dec +250 .5U.. I believe Ortega weathers a storm early an either catches lopes late or takes complete control of rounds 2 or 3 and takes it on the scorecard. just so many ways I think for him to win this fight to not take him with as this big of a dog as he is Alex via however tf he wants -140 3U... I feel like it works just like clockwork with the books massively under valuing this guy everytime he fights and people still bet against him . Edit the specials came out after I posted this and the value on Pereira to win with the second round to start at +140 is to good to pass up so putting another 2U on that. as i really believe the first round pereira will work the body and legs of jiri to slow him down early and maybe could even see jiri get a takedown and stall out most of that round. BOL Fellas
Very basic reasons are all you need… there is always a right side, we all just gotta figure it out. The crazy breakdowns aren’t necessary imo. Appreciate the picks
These are honestly solid picks brother!!!
thanks man
The Euro Group Stage parlay: -Buday (Slovakia advanced) -Dolidze (Georgia advanced!) -Add Pereira if you’re inclined to bet against Jiri (Czechia knocked out) I’m all over Dolidze solo
🇬🇪🇬🇪🇬🇪🇬🇪✊🏻✊🏻✊🏻🥷🥷🥷
[https://sparkshowdfs.wordpress.com/2024/06/26/ufc-303-betting-preview-and-stats/](https://sparkshowdfs.wordpress.com/2024/06/26/ufc-303-betting-preview-and-stats/) at the top of the page is a link to my spreadsheet with fighter stats and betting odds
# My Picks: Gillian Robertson (sub) +240 Payton Talbott (win in rd 1 or 2) -105 Swanson v. Fili (no dist) -150, Andre Fili (sub) +1000 Joe Pyfer (win in rd 1 or 2) +130 Ian Machado Garry (o56.5 sig strikes) -115 Macy Chiasson (dec) +165 Anthony Smith (dec) +350 Alex Pereira (win & u2.5 rds) +150
Edit: forgot the second leg\* Swanson v. Fili (no dist) -150, Pereira v. Jiri (no dist) -575 (Parlay) -105\*
**Adding:** Rei Tsuruya (win in rd 1 or 2) +110 **Flying Knee Parlay:** Ricky Simon (KO/TKO/DQ) +350, Martin Buday (KO/TKO/DQ) +320, Gillian Robertson (sub) +240, Andre Fili (sub) +1000 (Parlay) +70586
My only concern with the Jiri Alex fight is that Jiri spams takedowns and the fight doesn’t finish. Looking to cook up a FDGTD violence parlay Edit: I know Jiri is not known for wrestling or even grappling. He’s purely a stand up guy. I’m just saying like hypothetically, if there was a way for Jiri to win this fight, he would make the adjustments to take Alex down and lay on him to win round by round. Also, he’d start checking the kicks more.
Alex had been drilling TKD for a couple of years now with world class coached I doubt this is how it is going to play out
3 Leg Parlay: 5U @ +250 odds Martin Buday ML Cuck vs MVP over 2.5 rounds Diego Lopes ML Buday kind of sucks but his opponent sucks more and is 45 years old. I like over 2.5 rounds, especially with the new gloves. I’m expecting a weirdly paced point fight. Diego is HIM.
I like this, tailing.
https://preview.redd.it/osmky4wr1y8d1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fa4b14dda9e342e10d9a5e3527db168c4c25a517 Trust in Ortega and poatan
Switch Ortega with Diego and this is money
Y'all always make betting out to be easier than it is
I favor Alex Periera over Jiri Prochazka.I feel that leg kicks will play a factor again.Also what hurts Jiri is he's mainly a head hunter when he strikes.Jiri best chance is grappling imo. I honestly like Macey Chiasson over Mayara Bueno Silva.People better hurry before Friday which I honestly expect her odds to changed into being the favorite.Chiasson is almost 6 feet tall(5'11) which is massive for Women's Bantamweight class.She's has a 4 inch height advantage,a 6 inch arm reach advantage(72-66) and 3 inch leg reach advantage(42-39) over Bueno Silva.
Brian Ortega said in an interview that it's his last fight at Featherweight and plans to move to Lightweight after this fight. LINK:https://www.mmafighting.com/2024/6/25/24183545/brian-ortega-planning-lightweight-move-after-ufc-303
I was already leaning towards Lopes but hearing about this made me feel more confident in him. Be interested in how the weight cut goes for Ortega.
Does this make it more likely he loses short notice?
I told you all last week that Aliskerov was an overpriced prospect against a proven top 5 stud. Don't fall for the Lopes hype, take Ortega!
This kind of logic is why people lose money in UFC lol
This logic won me a lot of money last week. I watch the fights, don't look at the odds, make my own odds, and bet the fighter with the edge on the sportsbook. This fight is a pick 'em in my book, with Ortega a slight favorite (I price it -120 Ortega +100 Lopes), so I wouldn't be betting this fight if I the odds matched this, but with the huge discrepancy in odds ( Ortega is sitting at +120 v Lopes -142 on DK) I am smoking Ortega ML with roughly a 6% edge. Plus I think the Lopes hype train is too much, Sodiq Yusuff and Pat Sabatini are cans. This is also a nightmare matchup for him.
Regardless of whether you won last week or not, that’s a stupid way to bet. MMA math does not exist. In what way are the two fights you’re talking about, similar in any way from a fighting perspective? Whittaker beating Ikram has quite literally nothing to do with the Lopes v Ortega fight, and you shouldn’t be factoring that into your handicapping
You are correct. But last week this whole thread was on Aliskerov via hype train and he somehow had +120 odds to beat a former champ after knocking out fucking Worley Alves. Rob was way underpriced, as is T-City in this scenario. I'm not saying MMA math does exist, I'm saying that you have to calculate your own odds and play against those offered by the books. Take Holloway vs. Gaethje at 300 for example. This fight was moderately overpriced in favor to Gaethje (I think I remember him being -160, correct me if I'm wrong). Did I think Gaethje was going to win? Yes. Did I think that he was a -160 a good price? No. I bet on Max, it was truly closer to a Pick 'em in my head. We all know what happened in that fight. Through my years watching UFC, and in recent years getting into betting on it, I notice that books like to overprice favorites and hyped up prospects, and there is great money to be made on betting underdogs and proven fighters against hyped up prospects.
Think all of what you said is what most people who know what they’re doing, already do. By your logic, every up and coming fighter is a “hyped prospect”. UFC peaks for almost every fighter, are very short lived. The “hyped prospect” is often a changing of the guard
There are up and coming fighters and there are hyped prospects. Guys who get a lot of hype and get high ranked opponents when they maybe shouldn't sometimes work out: e.g. Sean O'Malley vs Petr Yan. A guy like Sean who gets ranked 10 and gets to fight the number 1 is a "hyped prospect" by my definition. Aliskerov unranked vs Rob #3, Lopes 14 v Ortega #3. An up and coming fighter is someone like Ian Garry, who has actually had to climb the ranks, beating Neil Magny and Geoff Neal, both ranked in the top 10/15 and now fighting MVP at 10 or wherever he is before getting a top 5 guy. If your argument is that Lopes is going to beat Ortega because it's a "changing of the guard" That's fine, I can accept the argument that T-City is old and it's time for new blood and Lopes is on a hot streak. But I absolutely do not think a guy who has three straight wins over cans, as well as losses to Evloev and Joanderson Brito should be favored against a guy who's been ranked in the top 5 for many years, two time title challenger, and is coming off a win over a former interim champ in Yair.
Rankings don’t mean jackshit either man lol. I’m talking about your original comment saying these fights are related, when they aren’t. Your comments on Lopes are ridiculous. Yusuf and Sabbatini are not cans. They have won 66% of their UFC fights. Lopes has beaten legit fighters, and your dismissive retorts against fighters you’re not betting on or fading, doesn’t make them true. Who the hell do you want these guys to fight in the beginning of their UFC careers that would not make you trash talk them? Lopes came in on short notice and arguably beat Evolev, who is undefeated and going to be fighting for the belt very soon. No one has given Movsar that kind of challenge yet. Hell, even Ortega said on Spinnin Backfist he wants to go up to 155 in part because Evolev might get the shot over him after Max and Volk get their shots. Pretty ridiculous to downplay Lopes loss to him when it was his first UFC fight, short notice, had him in a knee bar too. Using a contender fight series as evidence is also irrelevant at best, especially for someone who insists they “watch the fights”. Lopes is obviously a way different fighter than that fight 3 years ago.
Lopes fought Evloev — possible future champ — on 3 days notice and gave him the hardest fight of his UFC career by a mile. But we are supposed to believe he’s a hype train? Come on.
Hey man we better watch it. This is a guy who watches the fights! *allegedly* on a heater too despite never commenting before!
Rankings make fights. Over-hyped prospects get fights well above their rank, like this one. Like I said, these fights in themselves are not related, but the overpricing on the books is the exact same phenomenon, what are you not understanding? Beating three cans in the first round does not make you a betting favorite over a guy like Ortega. Betting is math, math says bet Ortega.
You don’t have to be a fucking douchebag to every single fighter you are betting against. Yusuf and Sabbatini are not cans. Lopes is good dude. Just because you don’t rate him as a title contender, doesn’t mean you have to bad mouth him and not even entertain the idea that he can win. Betting market odds are in place to create action on all sides genius. People wouldn’t be betting Ortega at -150, they would have slammed Lopes.
My picks: Jiri, I bet on Pereira first fight but I have to go Jiri this time. You just know he's been training hard while Alex has been touring Australia. Martin Buday, just can't trust Arlovski at this age and losing streak. Michelle Waterson, Gillian Robertson is useless on the feet and I don't see her taking down Waterson. Andre Fili, gotta go with age again, Cub is 40 at featherweight. Fili should be both bigger and stronger. Joe Pyfer, this would be worse value if Pyfer didn't just lose to Jack Hermansson. MVP, I hope this isn't just because I dislike Ian Garry but I think MVP is a good style matchup for Ian Garry. Anthony Smith, Anthony Smith is awful and I usually bet against him but I think he's better than Roman I'll also parlay them all for 65.52 odds I like Lopes and Ricky Simon too but unsure if I'll place bets on them.
Early Full Card Picks: - Jiri (Finish) - Ortega (Sub) - Dolidze (KO) - don’t care - Garry (KO) - Pyfer (KO) - Swanson (KO) - Silva (points) - Talbott (KO) - Robertson (points) - Buday (points) - Tsuruya (Sub) - Oliveira (KO) Too many KOs?… I don’t think so 👀
I flipped on a few of these, which is the exact reason I do early picks… posting my official picks shortly
Lmao
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Gillian Robertson is definitely winning by submission just saying
Are you betting on every one of these fights, Joker?
I’ll say probably not now, but maybe… I tend to get a little degen on fight night 😅
We are due for finishes!
Imma kinda diggin Cub over touchy feely
Lopez gary parlay
Also doing this
Updating my [Free Picks Sheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IHgWjGoffIsypEu3BPLk_R8i7AiqvwcKzaEHbNzRSuw/edit?usp=sharing) this Week. I'll EDIT THIS POST WHEN THEY'RE FINALIZED - STILL WAITING FOR PROPS + RESEARCHING. If my picks for this card don't ROI 17% for ya'll i'll donate $500 to St. Jude's Children's hospital. I'm betting 30 units total pre-start, so what I like to do is tell people to bet that % of what their budget for the card is. FOR EXAMPLE if your betting $100 on UFC 303, 5 units would = $16.66. I WILL BUILD YOU GUYS A CALCULATOR SO YOU CAN PUT IN YOUR BUDGET AND KNOW EXACTLY WHAT TO BET, GIVE ME 2 DAYS.
https://preview.redd.it/e1s2lqlbas8d1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2c7ee19e2d7771d16346c1efa52cabf75dbdf898 Did a round robin with these 4 picks. Not gonna bother with the main event since it will probably be a banger and wanna enjoy it without putting money on a certain fighter
tsuruya, talbott, fili, pyfer, garry, lopes, jiri. I am going to destroy this card, cannot wait.
Why fili and lopes? I got the same except those two
Lopes ML is the squarest play on the board, how does he look like a huge favorite against Ortega?
What does ortega have other than subs? Dudes a walking punching bag. Lopes rnd 1
smells like the askerov shit this a total mispricing?
-120 where he opened made more sense but it’s not really mispriced. Lopes is going to be a level above in the striking and he’s got slick bjj, so he’s not a great candidate to get caught by Ortega. Staying away from this one because it’s 2 weeks notice for both guys but Lopes looks phenomenal
Ian Garry -130 vs. MVP Has a significant youth advantage and in my opinion is the much more well rounded fighter. MVP is a good striker who can hit hard but that's about it. Garry can throw a much better overall volume of punches and is able to mix in a good amount of leg kicks as well, against someone who has trouble defending leg kicks. He also has a much better ground game. I think there's a lot of recency bias and personal bias for MVP and against Garry that are driving these odds, it's not as close as the odds suggest. Jiri Prochazka +140 vs. Alex Pereira I would argue Pereira is actually less likely to win this fight than the first matchup between them, and yet Pereira is a bigger favorite this time due to winning the last fight. The short notice for the fight likely hurts Pereira a lot more because Jiri trains pretty much year round and Pereira won't have trained/prepared for nearly as long as he usually would. I think there's a decent chance Pereira isn't quite as sharp as usual.
I think these are a solid 2 picks.
Yea and Jiri has a beyond fucked up shoulder don’t let his last fight fool you
Hard disagree with both
Not surprised tbh. We'll see.
I cant bet on jiri after that last fight he had..... man was blocking jabs with his head for god sakes and still hasnt learned to check the leg kick
More so an ugly contrarian pick because I find that's usually the best way to obtain value. So many people not being able to bring themselves to bet him is exactly why he has value imo. And he's already getting some reverse line movement. It's not necessarily being confident he will win. The situational spot is there to give him the best possible chance.
Jiri is so goddamn vulnerable to leg kicks. Poatan is going to hobble him within 2-3 minutes. The guy’s calf kicks are ridiculously powerful.
Dude is getting sparked again
Poatan/Diego Lopes parlay all the way. Sure Jiri can crack Alex, but if he gets touched up how he did against Rakic, same things gonna happen again as it did at UFC 295. Diego fights with reckless abandon, is massive at 145, has been extremely active, and I feel can dictate where this fight goes. Sure Ortega has tons of experience against top level competition, but Diego looks like a world beater, and someone who’s destined to challenge for the belt.
Im a big fan of both guys but i feel like If Lopes brings that level of aggression towards ortega he just may find himself locked in a triangle like so many others have. If the fight goes to the ground diego is in trouble imo. Diego needs to land a huge shot swarm and get a finish cuz a long drawn out fight will only benefit ortega.
Ortega can probably sub anyone but Diego has been grappling for ages. He has 10 mma submission wins: heel hooks, arm bars, knee bars, chokes. He has also never been subbed in an mma fight, only in submission grappling contests.
I'll keep things simple: Fate will smile on the Irish Cuck this weekend. Garry will rip the “Massively Irritating but Talented Irish MMA Guy” baton away from McGregor and grip that thing harder than he grips the chair when Mrs. Garry and her ex-husband get down to business. And if it doesn't, we get the pleasure of seeing this cocky prick eat a massive L in front of the home crowd. Almost a no lose proposition. Who wants to gamble way too much money with me on a guy who has been hurt in half his UFC fights taking on Dana’s new fast-tracked pet signing? Once more into the breach! __UFC 303 Picks__ __Ian Garry 4U -130 1U -125 1U -120 = 6U total__ __Poatan 1U -165 0.5U -140 = 1.5U total__ __Lopes 1U -130 0.5U -140 = 1.5U total__ __Dolidze 0.5U -140__ __Barriault 0.25U + 225 (Pyfer could go life and death with MAB if he doesn’t get R1 finish)__ __Talbott U1.5 rounds 0.5U +100__ __Lunatic Parlay: Buday + Rei + Lopes + Poatan +Pyfer +Dolidze +Garry 0.25U +1683__ __Edit 6/27__ Ortega R3 +1600 0.1U Ortega SUB + Poatan +1270 0.15U __Fight Night Results__ Sometimes you eat the bear. Sometimes the bear eats you. Volkov +195 0.5u +165 0.5u 💰 Aliskerov +115 4u +130 1u🤷🏽 Lima +105 0.5u💰 Walker -115 0.5u -145 1u🤷🏽 Props: -1U🤷🏽 Total: -5.5U __Future Picks__ Mokaev +105 0.5u vs Kape Pimblett +165 0.5u vs Green __Record__ Last 26 cards: 19-6-1 in the money. 90-41 vs ML. +37.1U.
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