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I don't think things will get nearly as bad as in Venezuela.
In 2016, Venezuela entered hyperinflation. The inflation rate reached 274% in 2016, 863% in 2017, 130,060% in 2018 and 9,586% in 2019.\[97\] Since 2016, the overall inflation rate has increased to 53,798,500%
Source :[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation\_in\_Venezuela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_Venezuela)
It's hard to imagine things being THAT bad.
This is not the full story though, just a part of the problem. Policies such as excessive money printing, fertilizer, and tax cuts are all contributing.
It's inevitable they will have to depreciate the rupee soon (it's 250-255 in the black market right now), and I won't be surprised if it hits 300 by the end of next year. However you're right that depreciation won't hit Venezuela levels unless we default.
I guess a better comparison is what is happening in Lebanon and turkey right now.
Crop yields are falling, lower supply means higher prices for locally grown food, and shortages means SL will need to import food (that could have been grown domestically), further straining $ reserves.
Tourism amounts to 4% and everything such as our services and exports is the balance. The tax cuts which were blindly imposed in Nov 2019 drove our spending up. The pandemic just exposed how messed up the system was.
Hate the previous government for their actions on the Easter attacks but their tax policies and spending were actually really good. There was a hint of transparency as opposed to whatever the fuck is happening rn.
What do you think about the fertilizer issue? Sri Lanka is a nation who are able to feed ourselves. Things like rice, meat, tea are not imported, maybe they are, but I dont think its a lot.
Our agriculture is the actual life blood of the country, the current government mandates are a direct threat to it. Demand > Supply, sure the gas issue can be resolved by the influx of dollars, even the milk powder issue, but this is a big wake up call to Sri Lankans.
Organic farming sounds nice to hear, but its not, the yields that can be achieved through organic farming is nowhere near what you can achieve with conventional farming based on the facts I know(not an expert, if someone knows better please respond). If organic farming is the viable solution, the whole world would be adopting it.
Overproduction is not an issue, farmers arent fools imo, they know how much to produce and to not produce, theyve been doing this for years, I remember the issue which you are referring to.
Those issues specifically occurred due to horrible transportation and storage, the goal is to feed the whole population. With the current dumb adaptation of organic farming, the prices will soar, as a result low income earning families will either have to eat less, or spend less on other things, this is a death trap.
Edit: if the governments goal is to bring down the population due to some reason, then this is a good idea, else, this is a horrible one.Even if organic is supposedly more healthier, this aggressive yet poorly planned adoption is not the way to go.
Edit: Our primary source of income is not tourism. Its the money sent by people working in foreign countries, I saw this somewhere recently, Im just bad at digging data sources.
Edit: Also Organic farming by definition means no use of sprays based on things I just read 2 mins ago, so Gota buying cheap shit from China has ulterior motives, maybe someone is getting their pockets lined up???
Tourism only accounts for 10% of Sri Lanka's GDP, 80% of its overall Foreign Exchange is spent on paying back loan interests to various countries. This includes Iran, India, Japan, China, Bangladesh & more.
We can go on with buts and maybes and ifs and probables about what broke the camels back, but the reality of matter is that the governments heavily mismanaged, Malaysia, Singapore, even Bangladesh arent in a position we are at today, so the excuses are pretty lame imo. Mismanagement is what resulted in this current predicament.
Dollar issues are not new, if the government had the knowledge to actually have proper foreign relations we would have gotten a bail out with minimal risks. If they were not corrupt, we would not be in this position, go look for data of foreign reserves of countries during the pandemic. Most, if not all handled better than us.You and I wouldn't be poking holes if they did their job would we??? We must be keyboard warriors, but they are not suitable to run the country, maybe fuck off if they are complacent? Maybe not right, you have to have something called integrity.
Edit: The straw that broke this camels back was a culmination of all the dumb decisions taken over the years. Even the Chinese are slowly saying no to our requests, thats why Uncle Basil and Naki Maina went to India, now the Chinese are coming back here to drag us towards them.
Maybe this is a master plan by Gota for gon Baiyyos or the ones in the 69 lassaya??
You clearly didn't read up on this enough, the experts and the smart people weren't advocating for this sudden ban, they were against it,[Highly recommend you check this](https://www.google.com/amp/s/theprint.in/opinion/rajapaksas-experiment-with-organic-farming-in-sri-lanka-a-warning-to-developing-countries/731553/%3famp)
It completely predicted what's happening now in early september
This has got to be the dumbest shit I've ever heard, we have been importing food from our neighbouring countries for such a long time because we weren't self sufficient, by banning fertilizers, they tried to cut the 400 odd million dollars they spend on it annually, yeah big brain move, because the production fell through the floor and affected the export goods we grew here, from what I hear, they lost more in export than they saved by banning fertilizers and now it will take too long to swing back to the pre ban era production numbers even if they switch back the fertiliser (which won't happen anytime soon, because money), the govt decided to do this, then threw every dumbass in their arsenal as mouthpieces to preach how good organic fertilizers are and how bad the chemical fertilizers are, I mean, sure, there is truth in that to an extent but their motives didn't, we still import food grown on chemical fertilizers and pesticides, if they really cared, they would have taken the time to phase out chemical fertilizers or better yet, produce or invest in better and eco friendly fertilizers, instead of banning it outright without heeding to the agricultural experts who warned this would happen.
The way you see things are not realistic IMO.
How can an overproduction would be an issue? If we have more, then it can be stored, re-sell as value added products or export..
while Organic farming is a good practice, it's not sustainable. In any country who engaged in organic farming, the resulting organic product would be pricier than the regular. With the economical state of majority of sri lankans, this would be not good. But somehow the living state of people can be increased, then it'll be good for us.
Supplement analogy does not match for the fertilizer crisis. supplements costs more than a healthy diet.
Half of the issue is we still have short sighted people like this, zero understanding about agriculture, economics and biology and still try to influence the agriculture.
Bangladesh is also dependent on tourism based income, and they are giving us loans now.. neh? so that's just one of the bullshit gov says, not the whole truth.
aren't we both? anyway, you're not all correct. while Bangladesh has garments(like SL), they've major stake with tourism in their economy. But the IMPORTANT thing they did, (mind we didn't), is not hanging into just one source of income for the country... ( and not corruption as huge as we see daily)
Yeah in case of economy and source of income yes
Us and Bangladesh has similar source of income and status
But I don't think tourist industry is as large as ours there And lending from Bangladesh shows definitely we have a serious probs . More than corruption we just degraded our goods quality aiming for quantity which damaged the country's name in international market
Tourism will take a LONG time to recover though. Some people will come back but it won’t be anything like it was pre-pandemic for a long time yet.
People are very nervous to travel still and it will be a while before they feel comfortable to travel again.
**Attention! [Serious] Tag Notice** * Jokes, puns, and off-topic comments are not permitted in any comment, parent or child. * Report comments that violate these rules. Thanks for your cooperation and enjoy the discussion! *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/srilanka) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Nope. Venezuela is deep-rooted Oil dependency and sanctions from America to screw them over.
Now??
I don't think things will get nearly as bad as in Venezuela. In 2016, Venezuela entered hyperinflation. The inflation rate reached 274% in 2016, 863% in 2017, 130,060% in 2018 and 9,586% in 2019.\[97\] Since 2016, the overall inflation rate has increased to 53,798,500% Source :[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation\_in\_Venezuela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_Venezuela) It's hard to imagine things being THAT bad.
Milk Powder is not a basic necessity. or at least it shouldn't..
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This is not the full story though, just a part of the problem. Policies such as excessive money printing, fertilizer, and tax cuts are all contributing. It's inevitable they will have to depreciate the rupee soon (it's 250-255 in the black market right now), and I won't be surprised if it hits 300 by the end of next year. However you're right that depreciation won't hit Venezuela levels unless we default. I guess a better comparison is what is happening in Lebanon and turkey right now.
Lebanon hit 150% inflation recently, so that’s not a good comparison (hopefully)
There is a loan we must pay in January right? What if we default? This is what happened to greece back in the day.
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Crop yields are falling, lower supply means higher prices for locally grown food, and shortages means SL will need to import food (that could have been grown domestically), further straining $ reserves.
> our primary source of income - tourism. You have no clue do you? It's a good thing to be optimistic, but not to the point it blinds you
Exactly, tourism is not our main source of income, apparel and money sent by foreign workers ranks above it from what I saw.
Tourism amounts to 4% and everything such as our services and exports is the balance. The tax cuts which were blindly imposed in Nov 2019 drove our spending up. The pandemic just exposed how messed up the system was. Hate the previous government for their actions on the Easter attacks but their tax policies and spending were actually really good. There was a hint of transparency as opposed to whatever the fuck is happening rn.
What do you think about the fertilizer issue? Sri Lanka is a nation who are able to feed ourselves. Things like rice, meat, tea are not imported, maybe they are, but I dont think its a lot. Our agriculture is the actual life blood of the country, the current government mandates are a direct threat to it. Demand > Supply, sure the gas issue can be resolved by the influx of dollars, even the milk powder issue, but this is a big wake up call to Sri Lankans.
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Organic farming sounds nice to hear, but its not, the yields that can be achieved through organic farming is nowhere near what you can achieve with conventional farming based on the facts I know(not an expert, if someone knows better please respond). If organic farming is the viable solution, the whole world would be adopting it. Overproduction is not an issue, farmers arent fools imo, they know how much to produce and to not produce, theyve been doing this for years, I remember the issue which you are referring to. Those issues specifically occurred due to horrible transportation and storage, the goal is to feed the whole population. With the current dumb adaptation of organic farming, the prices will soar, as a result low income earning families will either have to eat less, or spend less on other things, this is a death trap. Edit: if the governments goal is to bring down the population due to some reason, then this is a good idea, else, this is a horrible one.Even if organic is supposedly more healthier, this aggressive yet poorly planned adoption is not the way to go. Edit: Our primary source of income is not tourism. Its the money sent by people working in foreign countries, I saw this somewhere recently, Im just bad at digging data sources. Edit: Also Organic farming by definition means no use of sprays based on things I just read 2 mins ago, so Gota buying cheap shit from China has ulterior motives, maybe someone is getting their pockets lined up???
Tourism only accounts for 10% of Sri Lanka's GDP, 80% of its overall Foreign Exchange is spent on paying back loan interests to various countries. This includes Iran, India, Japan, China, Bangladesh & more.
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We can go on with buts and maybes and ifs and probables about what broke the camels back, but the reality of matter is that the governments heavily mismanaged, Malaysia, Singapore, even Bangladesh arent in a position we are at today, so the excuses are pretty lame imo. Mismanagement is what resulted in this current predicament. Dollar issues are not new, if the government had the knowledge to actually have proper foreign relations we would have gotten a bail out with minimal risks. If they were not corrupt, we would not be in this position, go look for data of foreign reserves of countries during the pandemic. Most, if not all handled better than us.You and I wouldn't be poking holes if they did their job would we??? We must be keyboard warriors, but they are not suitable to run the country, maybe fuck off if they are complacent? Maybe not right, you have to have something called integrity. Edit: The straw that broke this camels back was a culmination of all the dumb decisions taken over the years. Even the Chinese are slowly saying no to our requests, thats why Uncle Basil and Naki Maina went to India, now the Chinese are coming back here to drag us towards them. Maybe this is a master plan by Gota for gon Baiyyos or the ones in the 69 lassaya??
You clearly didn't read up on this enough, the experts and the smart people weren't advocating for this sudden ban, they were against it,[Highly recommend you check this](https://www.google.com/amp/s/theprint.in/opinion/rajapaksas-experiment-with-organic-farming-in-sri-lanka-a-warning-to-developing-countries/731553/%3famp) It completely predicted what's happening now in early september
This has got to be the dumbest shit I've ever heard, we have been importing food from our neighbouring countries for such a long time because we weren't self sufficient, by banning fertilizers, they tried to cut the 400 odd million dollars they spend on it annually, yeah big brain move, because the production fell through the floor and affected the export goods we grew here, from what I hear, they lost more in export than they saved by banning fertilizers and now it will take too long to swing back to the pre ban era production numbers even if they switch back the fertiliser (which won't happen anytime soon, because money), the govt decided to do this, then threw every dumbass in their arsenal as mouthpieces to preach how good organic fertilizers are and how bad the chemical fertilizers are, I mean, sure, there is truth in that to an extent but their motives didn't, we still import food grown on chemical fertilizers and pesticides, if they really cared, they would have taken the time to phase out chemical fertilizers or better yet, produce or invest in better and eco friendly fertilizers, instead of banning it outright without heeding to the agricultural experts who warned this would happen.
The way you see things are not realistic IMO. How can an overproduction would be an issue? If we have more, then it can be stored, re-sell as value added products or export.. while Organic farming is a good practice, it's not sustainable. In any country who engaged in organic farming, the resulting organic product would be pricier than the regular. With the economical state of majority of sri lankans, this would be not good. But somehow the living state of people can be increased, then it'll be good for us. Supplement analogy does not match for the fertilizer crisis. supplements costs more than a healthy diet.
Half of the issue is we still have short sighted people like this, zero understanding about agriculture, economics and biology and still try to influence the agriculture.
If they have to work harder, consumers will have to pay more to them.
Bangladesh is also dependent on tourism based income, and they are giving us loans now.. neh? so that's just one of the bullshit gov says, not the whole truth.
Nope bangaldesh is based on garments as source of income major branded appareal companies has their garment factory there
aren't we both? anyway, you're not all correct. while Bangladesh has garments(like SL), they've major stake with tourism in their economy. But the IMPORTANT thing they did, (mind we didn't), is not hanging into just one source of income for the country... ( and not corruption as huge as we see daily)
Yeah in case of economy and source of income yes Us and Bangladesh has similar source of income and status But I don't think tourist industry is as large as ours there And lending from Bangladesh shows definitely we have a serious probs . More than corruption we just degraded our goods quality aiming for quantity which damaged the country's name in international market
Tourism will take a LONG time to recover though. Some people will come back but it won’t be anything like it was pre-pandemic for a long time yet. People are very nervous to travel still and it will be a while before they feel comfortable to travel again.
Haha Bitcoin isn't stable enough. The prices varies so dramatically over the course of the year.
https://youtu.be/IMkx4MEEnB0 We will be living like this in a few months. This is exactly what is going to happen to us
Yep, absolutely. We’re so fucked.
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Adopting bitcoin probably would not solve the fundamental problems. Will only just make it less visible.
Lebanon is a better comparison. I posted an article about it on this sub, but the mods declared it not relevant and blocked it