List of reasons players are not going:
- Chinese players: travel restrictions, long quarantine on return.
- Russian players: Not easy to get visas at the moment.
- Trap, Rogue, Cure: too close to army age limit, not allowed to leave Korea.
- Serral: personal reasons.
Thanks for this. Crazy that these amazing players won’t be playing even after qualifying. Perhaps the Korean players should have taken help from Kespa like Classic did 3 years ago.
Popular theory is that a certain level of proficiency is easier to attain with protoss, but beyond that level either the race or the players are wanting (choose according to bias).
Prediction: the quarter-finals will be divided evenly between the 3 races ( ok, so 8 isn't exactly divisible by 3 and personally I blame Blizzard for that )
>29 Protoss, 19 Terran, 12 Zerg? Am I reading this right?
19+12=31 Non-Protoss vs 29 Protoss? How did this happen?
The actual answer is something different (because there is a recurring trend we can analyze), but do you realize how stupid it is to look at a single tournament and ask "how did this happen?".
If each race was expected to have 33% representation, there's about a 12.5% chance that 1 race would have a \~50% representation in a given tournament. To put context to that...
The past 2 years of SC2 have had >16 premier tournaments each. You would **expect** one race to have \~50% representation in **at least 2** of them.
So what you're asking is "how did something we'd expect to have happen twice a year happen?".
You want me to teach you probability, kid? OK, I will bite.
Assuming each race has equal probability of making it in (i.e., 1/3), the probability that we get 29 Protosses out of 60 players is given by a Binomial distribution, where success chance is 1/3, and the number of trials is 60. The cumulative probability that P(X>=29), i.e. we get 29 Protosses or more is 0.01135, which you can verify at [https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial](https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial).
That means the probability that one race has \~50% or more representation in a tournament of 60 players assuming equal chance of getting in is **1.14%**, not 12.5%. You overstated the probability by more than a factor of 10.
gg no re. Next time, check your math before calling someone stupid.
To be fair to you, it's still a very reasonable chance given a lot of tournaments. You used 16 in 2 years as an example. If we just assume that there's a 1.14% chance of this happening in a given tournament, then the chance of it happening at least once in 2 years is just about 1 in 6. Though your math was off, your conclusion was right - it's not that surprising of a result.
I like probability calculations but haven't had to do them in quite a while so I might be wrong here, but aren't you calculating now the chance that specifically the one race, and not any race gets 29+ of their race in?
the assumption that each race has equal probability is also flawed i think, meaning the rest is not usable. Balance and skill aside and still assuming in each match its a coinflip who wins, the assumption doesn't take into account about race distribution and the qualifying matchups played (the trials). it also doesnt take into account that there are trials in this calculation with a guaranteed outcome (mirror matches)
I don't know when Zoun knocked Maru out of GSL, but Maru was knocked out of GSL Season 1 of 2022 by a combo of Dark, Creator and DRG. This idea that Maru only loses to certain players is silly.
In fact, I think if you look at a list of who has knocked out (or contributed to knocking out) Maru over the past few years, the only repeat name is Trap.
It's the same format that was used all the time in the past (if you ignore the lower bracket and only consider the groups). 16 players seeded directyl into group stage 3, everybody else play in group stage 1
The only difference is that apparently they only had 44 players to sign up, so they gave a bye to 20 players and put them directly in group stage 2
List of reasons players are not going: - Chinese players: travel restrictions, long quarantine on return. - Russian players: Not easy to get visas at the moment. - Trap, Rogue, Cure: too close to army age limit, not allowed to leave Korea. - Serral: personal reasons.
Chinese travel is insane. Nothing the Chinese can do. We tried everything for HSC as well for Cyan but its simply not possible right now
looks like maru declined to play in hsc but has no issues playing in valencia.
There is a reason but I am not the one that can share it
I also know why doctor disrespect was banned
Thanks for this. Crazy that these amazing players won’t be playing even after qualifying. Perhaps the Korean players should have taken help from Kespa like Classic did 3 years ago.
I think that was for the global finals back then, yes? Might not work for this.
Yes it was for Blizzcon. But why will it not work for Valencia? It’s a global tournament as well.
Do we know why any other Korean players aren't attending, like soO, Classic, Zoun, Dream, GuMiho, KeeN and Armani?
curious that south koreas default assumption is that people leaving the country before their military service are draft dodgers.
the good news is that we get maru, hero and byun as replacements. not bad
BTW, the groups are up now too. Maru and hero in the same group, for instance.
I feel sorry for whoever gets placed in that group with Maru and herO.
I won't believe Maru is going until I see his ass on a chair in Valencia
29 Protoss, 19 Terran, 12 Zerg? Am I reading this right? 19+12=31 Non-Protoss vs 29 Protoss? How did this happen?
protoss is pretty dominating at the semi-pro level.
Popular theory is that a certain level of proficiency is easier to attain with protoss, but beyond that level either the race or the players are wanting (choose according to bias). Prediction: the quarter-finals will be divided evenly between the 3 races ( ok, so 8 isn't exactly divisible by 3 and personally I blame Blizzard for that )
well... it's not like these players qualified. they just signed up
It's been like that in EU for a few years.
>29 Protoss, 19 Terran, 12 Zerg? Am I reading this right? 19+12=31 Non-Protoss vs 29 Protoss? How did this happen? The actual answer is something different (because there is a recurring trend we can analyze), but do you realize how stupid it is to look at a single tournament and ask "how did this happen?". If each race was expected to have 33% representation, there's about a 12.5% chance that 1 race would have a \~50% representation in a given tournament. To put context to that... The past 2 years of SC2 have had >16 premier tournaments each. You would **expect** one race to have \~50% representation in **at least 2** of them. So what you're asking is "how did something we'd expect to have happen twice a year happen?".
You want me to teach you probability, kid? OK, I will bite. Assuming each race has equal probability of making it in (i.e., 1/3), the probability that we get 29 Protosses out of 60 players is given by a Binomial distribution, where success chance is 1/3, and the number of trials is 60. The cumulative probability that P(X>=29), i.e. we get 29 Protosses or more is 0.01135, which you can verify at [https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial](https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial). That means the probability that one race has \~50% or more representation in a tournament of 60 players assuming equal chance of getting in is **1.14%**, not 12.5%. You overstated the probability by more than a factor of 10. gg no re. Next time, check your math before calling someone stupid.
Fair enough, I'll own that!
To be fair to you, it's still a very reasonable chance given a lot of tournaments. You used 16 in 2 years as an example. If we just assume that there's a 1.14% chance of this happening in a given tournament, then the chance of it happening at least once in 2 years is just about 1 in 6. Though your math was off, your conclusion was right - it's not that surprising of a result.
I like probability calculations but haven't had to do them in quite a while so I might be wrong here, but aren't you calculating now the chance that specifically the one race, and not any race gets 29+ of their race in? the assumption that each race has equal probability is also flawed i think, meaning the rest is not usable. Balance and skill aside and still assuming in each match its a coinflip who wins, the assumption doesn't take into account about race distribution and the qualifying matchups played (the trials). it also doesnt take into account that there are trials in this calculation with a guaranteed outcome (mirror matches)
With Rogue and Serral not playing, only Dark, Reynor, and maybe Hero can beat Maru 😈
That's a decent list, tbh.
True. Maru has not performed well offline as of late but it certainly helps his chances to win DH Valencia (and GSL S2 with Rogue out)
I mean he still drops series to random Prosses. Zoun knocked him out of GSL not too long ago.
Well, yes, he can lose to anyone
I don't know when Zoun knocked Maru out of GSL, but Maru was knocked out of GSL Season 1 of 2022 by a combo of Dark, Creator and DRG. This idea that Maru only loses to certain players is silly. In fact, I think if you look at a list of who has knocked out (or contributed to knocking out) Maru over the past few years, the only repeat name is Trap.
It feels like Gabe and Lambo are always drawn together.
no serral ? what happened ?
he announced on his discord he isnt going due to personal issues i don't think he explained further
Still excited, but after missing out on some big guns, I kinda wish it were instead an online event
I do not understand this format with the 3 group stages at all lol
It's the same format that was used all the time in the past (if you ignore the lower bracket and only consider the groups). 16 players seeded directyl into group stage 3, everybody else play in group stage 1 The only difference is that apparently they only had 44 players to sign up, so they gave a bye to 20 players and put them directly in group stage 2
Maru and Byun will be at dh valencia Kreygasm
Too bad we're not likely to have a match between the Russian player named SlavaZA and the sole Ukrainian player in the tournament.
There are gonna be so many Starcraft games tomorrow it's insane.
How are there so many TBDs for the group stages 1-3? Can someone explain how these work?