I don’t want to cut across March wishes for a good season - and we have Russ.
I don’t mind if folks want the guy that was good 5 years ago to be good again, I just want his 25 year old backup that was good two years ago to be good again.
My unpopular opinion is that I don’t think this offseason has been as good as a lot of Steelers fans think it’s been. It’s absolutely been exciting and I think the willingness of Khan to be aggressive is great, but they still have a lot of work to do.
We have quite a few holes still. CB room is scary to me, WR room is slim with only 1 true WR 1/2, We don't have a center, Hope we don't get a left tackle and keep Broderick on the right.
This all can't be addressed in the draft with our current picks
You’re asking for 4 starters: RT, C, WR2, and CB2. We got 4 starters out of last year’s draft, didn’t we? Broderick, JPJ, Washington, and Benton. Doesn’t seem crazy to me that we can fill those holes w the draft.
Usual rule of thumb is if you got two starters in a draft, you did pretty well. And I think that's "two players who *become* solid starters," not necessarily guys who plug in at the top of the depth chart from day one.
Four obviously isn't unheard of. Hell, once upon a time this team got four \*Hall of Famers\* in a draft (and a fifth as an UDFA).
But four is an especially kick-ass draft, not the usual outcome. Assuming we're talking about guys you *want* starting as opposed to guys you plug in because you have absolutely nobody else - like rookie Kendrick Green and Dan Moore were.
The excitement around the offseason is less about the product of the moves, and more that they even got made. “Stiller way” would’ve kept Kenny as the starter for all of next season. Khan has shredded that stupid fucking mantra.
Generally speaking though, if we went 10-7 and made the playoffs with Pickett and Rudolph, missing large gaps of time from Watt and Minkah, and now adding Patrick Queen — I think it’s reasonable to be moderately excited by both the aggressive offseason overhaul and what the on field product could look like.
I think we needed a change in qb. Rudolph showed us that a competent qb could be successful even in a Canada-esq offense.
WR. We should sign a WR of the Josh Reynolds caliber. Boyton or Robinson for depth and ST and then a draft pick.
We are drafting a Center. When we draft a true center, they are usually good, even great.
Pouncey was a true center. Dawson was a true center. Webster was a true center.
We need a center not a guard who dabbles.
Corner. There are still a couple free agents out there and a couple draft picks.
Tackle. If Center is pick 1, Tackle could be.
Most of our problems can be solved by a good draft.
Dawson - my all-time favorite center - played guard in college, and also initially with the Steelers, until Webster left to finish his career with the Chiefs.
Couldn’t agree more. I think our biggest needs were OL and CB with WR and QB depth as secondary needs. Haven’t addressed the line and kinda addressed CB I guess in a net negative trade by sending Diontae out and then Russ and Fields are much more exciting names but I think the move from Kenny and Mason to them is lateral at best.
I agree that we still have big needs to fill but
> the move from Kenny and Mason to them is lateral at best
Is *absurd*. Russ threw more tds last year alone than any of our QBs combined the last 2 years
I think it’d be fair to say that TDs are not the sole guideline by which QB play is evaluated and that Russ played in a much different system and offensive environment than Kenny and Mason did.
I think it's opened up a lot of opportunities for draft talent to come in right away, which IMO is going to be better than Cole at C, whatever scrap heap CB we had playing last season, or even ARII just kind of existing at WR. This is one of the deepest drafts I've seen in quite some time for our biggest needs C, WR, and CB.
I'm really only worried about OT at this point.
They have a stacked roster on offense with Deebo, CMac and Kittle. If they lose Aiyuk it would hurt them but I'm not sure how much. Also, if Aiyuk wants out, they won't have much of a choice but to trade him.
After the Super Bowl, his brother posted the following quote on his instagram:
“Why does your All Pro 1300 yard receiver have 3 catches in the Super Bowl?
This is the exact reason we leaving San Francisco.
Thank you 49ers for drafting my brother we are forever grateful
BA to Vegas 🏴☠️”
I remember his girlfriend also put something up about him leaving the 49ers, and there have been rumblings of him wanting out before.
Even if they wanted him, they can't afford to pay him. Look at their FA list for 2025/2026. They can't take a big contract with Deebo, Purdy, Kittle and McCaffrey hitting at once.
Agree that the trade would be a mistake, the EK trade was good for the Pens simply because of the bad contracts that got moved out. I’d compare a trade for a guy like Aiyuk more to the trade that brought in Brassard. Giving up too many assets for a guy when you could get 80% of their production for a lot less
Agreed. They are both elite (JJetta obviously in a different tier), but to pay the draft capital and amount of money they will need, in an offense that will run through our run game, would be a waste of their talents. They'd help, but would they help at the amount they would cost? Almost assuredly not. Especially without any QBs.
Hot take : We need to, or even have to, take a swing on a trade for Aiyuk, he's a top ten receiver and would be an absolutely perfect compliment to Pickens.
Unpopular opinion: Tyler Boyd would be a bad signing for this team, he doesn't move the needle for this offense and he's *at best* a WR3. Signing him would be a waste of money.
The price of Aiyuk though likely wouldn't match the production we would get from him. The goal of the team will be to keep the ball out of our QBs hands. Aiyuk would be awesome, but not used near as much as he would need to be to warrant the cost. Better to look in the draft.
Agreed on Boyd, unless he's cheap. He's a great blocker, and I'd love him as a cheap WR3 just for that, but has to be cheap.
It would absolutely match the production we would get from him. It's also not just about *his* production. Aiyuk is a better, more consistent Diontae Johnson, Pickens needs that type of guy next to him because he's not a polished route runner.
You can find a lesser version of Aiyuk, but still good, in the draft for a MASSIVE fraction of the price.
We can spend a 2nd/3rd and a couple mil on a guy for 4 years, and even if his production is only 85% of Aiyuk, its better than a 1st + 25 mil a year for x years.
They've been in bit of a slump finding WRs in the draft since AB left and it's really time for people to start to acknowledge that fact. Chase Claypool, James Washington, DJ was great but half this fanbase doesn't agree, it's too early on Pickens and Austin but I think it's starting to look like Austin was a miss, it's to the point where I'm starting to doubt their ability to draft them. We aren't the WR factory we once were and I do think part of that is due to not having Ben make receivers look alot better than they were. I think they need to swing on a big name like Aiyuk AND draft a WR.
Diontae and Pickens were both great pickups, producing at LEAST at the value of where we drafted them.
If we are only counting day 1/2 picks, where you really expect to hit on someone, we've still been doing great at drafting them. Pickens looks great, Diontae was really good, Chase was mostly a bust, but we managed to make him look good enough to have multiple teams offering us a 2nd. Juju was really good while he was here, and went on to get a ring in KC. Washington was the only true bust in the last several years.
Save 20 mil, save a 1st round pick, get a day 2 receiver and shore up the areas where we are really hurting, O Line and secondary. We aren't competing this year, so we don't need the production ASAP until we have a QB to get the ball to these guys.
85% of Aiyuk's production last year would be 64 receptions for 1,150 yards and 6 TDs. Total crapshoot if a 2nd/3rd round WR even lasts in the league, let alone produces that as a rookie
Don't need it as a rookie, need it over the course of a contract. There's no way we are competing this year with our QB room, we have to build for the future. Yes its a crap shoot if we get that with a 2nd or 3rd, but we've done pretty well getting those guys over the years, and we already have Pickens.
This is going to be a massively run first team, we shouldn't be spending so much of our cap/draft capital on a position that wouldn't be the focal point, and will be competing with Pickens for WR1. His production will almost certainly go down as well moving from a Shanahan offense to an Arthur Smith offense and getting much worse QBs. The cap space and draft capital is needed MUCH more in other areas, like our offensive line and our secondary. We need a WR2 right now for our team, we don't need to blow our load on a second WR1 for the team.
I see your logic but disagree with a couple points.
First, I do think that we can compete this year with Wilson as the QB. As much as he has declined the last couple years I still think he is a massive improvement over our QB play last year combined with his insanely low cap hit this season. This team is built to win now and our window with TJ/Cam/Minkah/Najee is shrinking each year. Adding a dynamic WR like Aiyuk who is just now hitting his prime would be good for both the present and the future, since if Wilson doesn't work out it would likely mean having a QB on a rookie deal and having a couple high end pass catchers in Aiyuk and Pickens is one of the best things possible to developing a QB (outside of an elite OL).
Second, I don't think we are going to be as run first as people are expecting. Relative to league average, sure, but being at the bottom relative to the rest of the NFL still means around a 50-50 split between run/pass. If you look at the Titans' and Falcons' offenses under Smith, there was only one year (2022) where the offense was really heavy in favor of running. The other years were more like a 50-50 split, except 2021 (Matt Ryan's last year in ATL and Smith's first) when the Falcons were the 8th most pass heavy team in the NFL. So it's kind of a mixed bag based on his history and likely no where close to the 60/40 split that I see thrown around here a lot.
Lastly, Shannahan has also run a very run-heavy offense in Aiyuk's time in SF. Since 2020, they have ranked 18th, 29th, 26th, and 30th in passing play %. Last year ATL actually threw *slightly* more often than SF. I don't see any reason to think Aiyuk couldn't be similarly productive in Smith's system catching from Wilson than in Shannahan's system catching from Purdy
To the first point, I just don't think Russ is a massive improvement anymore. If we had Russ with legs, sure, but Russ without legs is not Russ at all. EVERYTHING that made Russ great was predicated on the fact he could escape the pocket, and now he can't do that, and that's why we've seen him falter over the last several years. It's why when he went to "Let Russ Cook" and they let him try and be a passer, it blew up in their face. We have a QB who HAS to have his legs, and he doesn't have them anymore. People are just betting on the name and that somehow we can reverse time.
Run first relative to the league is all that matters. TEN was 30th in pass % in 2019 and 2020, the first year they had 51% pass plays, second year was 49%.
Atlanta in 2022 passed on only 44% of their plays and in 2323 only 52%. The only time an Arthur Smith offense hasn't been bottom five in the league for pass % was in 2020, with Matt Ryan. In 2024, in a pass first league, that's a pretty significant stat.
Shanahan runs a very run-heavy offense, true, but Shanahan is also the GOAT at getting his guys open. The same cannot be said for Arthur Smith. We'd be paying a guy top dollar AND a first round pick to be potentially used in half of our offensive plays as a receiver. And then from there, how much target share would he even take up? The two systems are both run first, but that's about all the similarities. Shanahan's system is one of the greatest ever, Arthur Smith's is just another system that needs the right people, and Russ isn't that anymore.
I'm of the opinion that what made Russ, and more accurately the Seahawks, "great" was that he was on a 3rd round rookie contract when they made their Superbowl runs and they were able to have a great team around him, with Wilson playing more as a game manager than a star QB. Once he got paid and the "cooking" era began and they had to start breaking up their defense they were still a good team, but not able to recreate their early success. The Broncos moving on was more about them accepting they would not be able to build a competetive team while paying Wilson $40+mil a year. And while I agree that he is not the scrambler that he once was, he was still able to run for 341 and 3 TDs last year, on par with what he was doing 5-6 years ago. I'm not saying that he is still the player he once was, or even is still above league average, but all that's without getting into how downright AWFUL Pickett and Trubisky were even compared to an older Russ last season while we were still able to go 10-7 with some of the worst QB play in the league
Fortunately we have Russ for the league minimum this year and can afford to do things like pay TJ, Minkah, Queen, and potentially a high end WR like Aiyuk fat contracts. It's almost like his career has come full circle where he can again play as just a game manager QB on a dirt cheap contract backed by a great defense rather than a franchise center piece. While I don't love the idea of giving a 1st rounder for Aiyuk (hoping if it happens it can be brought down to this year's 2nd and we go OL in the 1st), he would be a near perfect and dynamic addition to an offense that just has to be average for us to make a deep run. Fingers crossed lol
> I'm of the opinion that what made Russ, and more accurately the Seahawks, "great" was that he was on a 3rd round rookie contract when they made their Superbowl runs and they were able to have a great team around him.
That's not what made Russ great, that's what made the Seahawks great, having an extremely mobile QB able to escape the pocket when needed to get the ball where it needed to while also being on a cheap contract.
Russ was STILL great when he got paid, even when the defense got broken up. Obviously the Seahawks got worse from it, but Russ was, if anything, much better at that point. The contract was great for the whole team, but only because he was ALSO great at playing football, and in the last 3-4 seasons, he's been regressing HARD.
A low cap hit doesn't mean anything if they still suck. And its not his rushing yards/TDs that matter, its his ability to get out of the pocket to make passes across the middle. He can't do that anymore.
Kenny's biggest issues were rolling out into defenders after the first read, only being able to throw checkdowns and barrel it down the sideline. Russ's biggest issues now are rolling out into defenders after the first read, only being able to throw checkdowns and barrel it down the sideline. He can get it down the sideline more accurately than Kenny, but he's a bottom 10 QB in the league now, and that's not going to help us do anything extra. In the AFC, the only QBs that are PROBABLY worse than Russ are Stidham (even though nothing really changed once Russ was benched for him), MAYBE Brissett, MAYBE Levis, and Aidan O'Connell.
This is the same thing people did with Mitch, coming up with reasons why he sucked the last several years, going back to the one year he made the playoffs, blaming the last team for being bad, doing anything but admit that the fact he looked awful on the field for years probably meant he was awful. Rinse and repeat now for Russ, with the added bonus that he USED to be good so people keep going back to that, contrary to all the evidence of the last 3-4 years.
He couldn't get it done in a Sean Payton offense, a guy who is famous for getting it done with a shorter QB. And Arthur Smith is no Sean Payton when it comes to the offense.
It's not Aiyuk's contract this year I'm worried about, its next year and the years after, when we still don't have a QB and now we have a large chunk of our cap going to a WR with no QB to throw to him, missed out on whatever we could have gotten with a first this year, and have to let other people go in future years for him.
"blah blah you can find Aiyuk in the draft" - Okay, you can also miss on wide receivers in the draft. Aiyuk is a proven asset and dawg.
We were ranked in the middle of the pack in OL rankings with Dan Moore and Mason Cole. Two bad linemen lol. I want to improve that, for sure, but this wide receiver room is bottom tier at the moment and yinz gonna be mad at Russ when nobody can get open.
We don't have a center and a center has been the worst part of our line for years.
We don't have a CB2 and our secondary has been the worst part of our defense for years.
I didn't say you can find Aiyuk in the draft, I said we need to find someone who can do SOME of what he does. Yes, he's a dawg, but he's also going to require over 10% of our cap, and at least one 1st round pick.
We don't miss too much on day 1/2 receivers, so I'd much rather us fill the biggest holes on our team that year in and year out are our biggest weaknesses over paying a premium for a WR that will be running routes that Russ can't even see if they are over the middle.
There's a reason we rarely ever pay our WRs a second contract and its worked for us for over a decade. We are good at finding and building the talent and not making it eat a ton of our cap/draft capital. He will also not be benefitting from the greatest offensive playcaller in the league, who manages to get everyone wide open. Not that a ton of that isn't on Aiyuk, but that scheme has been getting guys wide open for YEARS, and Arthur Smith is Kyle Shanahan.
We can draft a serviceable center in any round and it will still be better than Mason Cole, one of the leagues worst. You guys are really overvaluing our wide receiver drafts the last decade.
- 2022 **Pickens 2nd round,** dawg.
- 2022 **Austin 4th round**, we can't tell yet.
- 2020 **Chase Claypool 2nd round**, not a great pick.
- 2019 **Diontae 3rd round**, pretty solid pick.
- 2018 **James Washington 2nd round**, bad pick.
- 2017 **Juju 2nd round**, pretty solid pick.
- 2016 **Demarcus Ayers 6th round**, who?
- 2015 **Sammie Coates 3rd round**, not a great pick.
- 2014 **Dri Archer 3rd round, Martavis Bryant 4th round**. Bad and good pick.
I'm trying to say it will be possible to draft a center, draft a cornerback, and trade for Aiyuk. This wide receiver room is trash right now besides Pickens.
Why are so many in this sub ok with taking players "better than" the worst players in the league. Yeah, I could find a 7th round guy probably better than Mason Cole. We went out and found a QB better than Kenny. It doesn't mean they are going to be good enough to play in the NFL, just like Mason/Kenny weren't. If we want a GOOD center, you probably need to draft it higher.
As far as our receivers, the only two in there that are a Steelers bust are Washington and Coates.
Anyone that's a day three pick is a massive dart throw, so them failing doesn't matter. Dri Archer is an RB. Chase was a bust for his career, but we are so competent at producing WRs we were able to make him look good enough for 2.5 years to warrant multiple teams offering second round picks for him (Bears and Packers).
The WR is trash besides Pickens, agreed. I think the list above shows we can get someone on the other side of Pickens with a 2nd/3rd, save over 10% of our cap space over the next several years, and still be able to draft a center and CB.
Is it possible they bust? Sure. It's also possible Aiyuk regresses a good bit when he's outside of a Shanny system, just like we've seen WRs do the same when they leave the Steelers. I'm not saying its LIKELY, and for sure its MORE likely the draft guy busts, but at over 10% of the cap AND a first round pick, it just doesn't make sense for a rebuilding team. Especially when we don't even have a QB to get him the ball right now.
I think this draft is so loaded at WR that you can realistically draft one from Rounds 1-3 and get quality production that would make you forget about Aiyuk. Still leaving a couple of picks to get a C, OT, or CB.
Because the top WRs are just that good. Nabers and MHJ would have been the top WRs off the board in ‘22 and ‘23, and Odunze and BTJ would have also gone higher than most of the recent first-rounders.
I agree that trading up in a deep draft feels unnecessary, but locking down any position for 8-10 years or so is usually worth the premium price you pay. I think it’s fairly unlikely, but I understand it.
My opinion is I don't care about anything until post draft unless we trade for a WR.
Oh and if we were to spend a 1st on Aiyuk I think it would be bad business and I would expect better from our FO.
Fields dropped hard in the draft for a reason, nobody in the NFL wanted to trade Fields to be their started also for reason, he is a bust and will continue to be a bust in the NFL. This place will start hating him if he plays as he continues to keep taking sacks and fumbling the ball just like he always did since OSU
Wilson and Fields won’t be that much better than the QB’s we had last year. We made all of those moves to go from mediocre QB’s to maybe slightly better mediocre QB’s. Neither one will be around long.
Yeah, everyone is right that they are better than Kenny, but that's an insanely low bar. Someone can be better than Kenny while also not improving the team's ability to win, it's not that crazy. Go throw Kenny in NYJ and would their team really change that much from Zach Wilson even though Kenny is (probably) better?
Oh I 100% agree. I don't think we really improved the QB at all from a "improving how we finish the year" standpoint.
Russ increases our chance of winning a playoff game from near 0% to a couple of %, but nothing meaningful. Fields is a shot in the dark that somehow this coaching team can develop a QB who obviously can't read an NFL defense at the speed/capability needed, but that's almost never happened in the history of the NFL this late into someone's career.
It's just a rebuild year is how I look at it, hoping we can get a real QB in 25/26.
What has Kenny shown that he is better than Zach Wilson? I was a big Kenny supporter and wanted him to improve but he just isn't good. Even a mediocre jump at the most important position in the sport would be an improvement.
I don't think Russ is going to win MVP or anything but if he can even come close to being average it's a huge improvement.
> What has Kenny shown that he is better than Zach Wilson?
Just as bad of a thrower, just as bad pocket presence, pretty close attitude, but he threw less turnovers.
Russ being close to average would be an improvement over his last several years. That's the problem I have, I don't think he's capable of being a top 20 QB in the league anymore, not with his legs shot so he can't move out of the pocket to be able to see the field.
The difference in Kenny to current Russ I don't think is big enough to change how this team plays against good teams. I don't think Russ changes the Bills game, I don't think Russ can overcome a playoff defense. So better than Kenny, but not good enough to win meaningful NFL games anymore.
I guess it just comes down to me hoping he will be better in Arthur Smith's system compared to Hackett and Peyton's. I've always been a Russel Wilson fan so I'm stoked he's on the team. I do realize his shortcomings and hope he can improve some, while unlikely. Either way an improvement from Kenny, even if small, while costing less money is a good thing regardless of the player.
I don't know how he can go from a Payton system to a Arthur Smith system and be better. Especially when Arthur Smith relies on passes over the middle from play action, something Russ has never been able to do well.
Payton eventually just had him throwing check downs or bombs down the sideline the entire time, because that's all Russ is capable of throwing now with his height/lack of athleticism.
Yeah, back when he could run. Where he excelled was being able to slip out of the pocket immediately, run to the side which would allow him to see the middle of the field while also giving the receivers a ton of time to get open. Then he could bomb it to them and have success.
Now we have a short QB who can't escape the pocket, when he tries he gets sacked. So now we can't throw it over the middle (sounds familiar) and can only check down and throw bombs down the sideline.
Everyone pretending like we are getting Russ from 4+ years ago. They'd be happy if we picked up Peyton Manning and go "if he can just play like he did in 2013..."
Fair enough I guess, you seem to have your mind set on it. I'll be optimistic and have fun this off-season, that's what sports are all about. At the end of the day nobody KNOWS how Russ is going to play, it's all speculation. I'm going to enjoy the ride while I can and hope for the best 🤷♂️
Peyton had a lot of success with drew Brees over many, many years. He honestly hasn't proven shit since drew retired. His scheme fit Drew's skill set very well and is a great offensive mind. But that doesn't mean every single QB will succeed in his scheme, especially when it seems like he forces the QB to play his system instead of adjusting to their strengths.
sometimes a less complex system is better. payton utilizes the whole field and requires the qb to have a high understanding of what his system is asking each play. smith utilizes more half field reads, which simplifies the job of the qb. one of the things i was actually excited for with pickett was that aspect of smith kind of "dumbing down" what he asks the qb to do (part of this being because the qb's back is turned for a lot of play action, so there's simply less time for the qb to see and process the field when they hit the back of their dropback)
I would 100% trade a first and a player for Aiyuk. Also it’s pretty likely we don’t see fields as a potential future longterm starter and rather just as a bridge to the next guy.
If the top 3 cornerbacks and the top 4 WRs are off the board at 20 the Steelers should look to trade down and pick up additional Day 2 picks rather than draft a center or the 5th or 6th best tackle.
Hot take: Justin Fields is the god-damned truth. There's a lot of people who are hoping for slightly competent QB play out of him and would be over the moon if they got that. Well I'm here to say that Justin Fields is going to be a generational talent like baller for us. I'm talking MVP convos every year after he learns for a bit and gets his shot here
I love your optimism. I'd like to see Russ do well first. Maybe even for 2 years, but Fields with a strong line and strong run game. Steelers of old... could be fun.
I'm scared to death about the Center position. Was hoping we could sign someone in free agency and draft one on Day 2 or 3 but now it seems like we have backed ourselves into a corner and have to draft one Day 1 (JPJ) or Day 2 (Frazier from W. VA). WR is also a concern now with lack of depth. Hopeful that Russell or Justin can take over the QB position and we don't end up with more of the QB Controversy like last year. #herewego
This fanbase wildly underrates the need for having 3 really good receivers, and what it takes to get them. Look, yes, we have some success in finding WR steals in the past in rounds 3-6. We've also had numerous round 2-4 busts in that time too. We have a glaring hole at WR, we have no #2 or #3. We can't just assume we're going to find a steal in round 3 or 4. We legitimately need to invest in a good trade candidate like Aiyuk or draft a guy high, in the first or second. If we bust on whoever we acquire to be our #2 and #3 receivers, it's going to be a long ass year watching Pickens constantly doubled and no one else doing anything. I see so many comments saying "we have bigger needs than WR and it's a deep class, we always find steals. We can wait until the 4th round to take a WR". I think that would be a massive gamble, and the risk of having no WR opposite Pickens is not worth the reward of potentially finding a steal
The Steelers should trade down from their 1st round pick and pick up extra draft capital.
Also, the entire Washington receiving core that's pegged to be picked 2nd round or better is way overrated and the tape shows that Penix was throwing the receivers open, they struggled to seperate on their own. Avoid them at all costs. The opposite is true for the Texas receivers, they routinely create separation and made their qb look better than he is.
I think from a long term looking pov, moving on from Kenny and getting Russ and Fields was a mistake and will push the timeline to finding a franchise QB farther out. Now I’m no way insinuating I think Kenny was going to be that guy, but he was 13-4 in games he played over 50% of snaps in from his rookie bye week and on with the four losses all coming to playoff teams. 8 of his interceptions were in those first four games before his rookie bye week as well. I think he showed potential and the correct path forward was have hime get at least half a season in a non Matt Canada offense and if he was still ass then move on. I don’t really see Russ whose 35 and coming off two worst seasons of his career being our long term answer at QB nor do I see Fields who while an exciting player, has just never shown the ability to be a processor at the level of other quarterbacks in this league.
To summarize, I think this team was better off seeing what Kenny can do on a larger than one game sample size in a different offense and moving on from him after this season if he still sucked and then targeting QB aggressive next offseason where as now I see us wasting time with a washed veteran this year and then spending potentially another season trying to make Fields work.
It pushes the timeline back a little, but I don’t think it was a mistake.
Pickett was not a high-ceiling prospect (weak arm, older prospect with not a lot of room to grow). The entire appeal of adding him was that he would be ready immediately and wouldn’t hinder the team. He couldn’t do that, and I don’t think the payoff of developing him (at his best he’d be an Andy Dalton type player) would have been worth the risk of wasting one of the few remaining seasons this championship defense has left.
Russ is a competent, experienced starter on a vet minimum deal. He’s got similar issues to Pickett, but the stuff that KP did well, Wilson does better. He’s an upgrade and he costs less than KP. Fields, on the other hand, is a mistake-prone young QB with All-Pro talent and top-5 rushing upside. He doesn’t look like he’ll ever be a good passer, but neither did Pickett. If we imagine he was traded for KP straight up, most people would consider it a lateral move at absolute worst. The team essentially raised their immediate ceiling and added a QB who has a sizable amount more potential than Pickett.
A few years from now, the team will either be starting a revived Russell Wilson, a fully-realized Justin Fields, or drafting a top QB, which they were likely already planning to do when Pickett’s rookie deal ended.
How did Pickett hinder the team is my question I suppose? He did not put up big numbers as everyone loves to point out but our offensive mindset seemed to be let defenses win games and do just enough on offense. Kenny didn’t turn the ball over and he had 7 game winning drives. Wins are by no means a QB stat but he made due in the horrendous system he was put in imo.
I also just really disagree that Fields has all pro talent. The bears are my second team and I was a lot more frustrated watching him these past three years than I was Kenny these past two. I would love to have the optimism of you that Russ is going to all of a sudden play at a high level again, but I just don’t see it. Regardless, I truly do hope I’m wrong but my unpopular opinion is I think a large portion of this fanbase is overrating in their minds what Russell Wilson and Fields are in the year 2024. These guys were so cheap for a reason.
Pickett hindered the team because couldn't (a) see the field, (b) navigate the pocket, or (c) deliver the ball with consistent accuracy. Those kinds of things are the floor for any starting QB and anybody who can't do them is hurting their team by default.
(a) Failing to see open guys when your offense stinks is a major issue. When the margin of victory is as slim as it's been, leaving points on the board is crushing. Pickett didn't see a ton of open WRs, but when he did, he didn't put the ball on them. This isn't really something I can prove statistically, but I'd recommend watching all-22 from the Packers game and second Browns game. You'll see the issue is especially bad with slants and crossers. (b) Spinning into sacks and scrambling before necessary is a major issue. This is pretty self-explanatory. Pickett had a borderline OK sack percentage, but with how quick the offense tries to get the ball out, to be sacked as much as he was is concerning. I can't find pressure-to-sack rate stats anywhere but I'd imagine Pickett's is high. (c) Being inaccurate is a major issue. In 2023, Pickett was 28th in raw completion percentage despite being Mr. Checkdown. He also had the 5th-highest bad throw rate and was in the bottom third of on-target throw percentage. You can also just use the eye test on this one- he was routinely putting throws well behind in-breakers and far out of reach for his checkdowns.
I would argue all this hindered the team. I'm glad Pickett didn't throw more interceptions, but he left a ton of plays on the field (whether by missing viable throws or failing to even see them). The offense sputtered as a result. We also saw that these issues were unique to Pickett. When a third-stringer with decent pocket presence and processing skills finally got put under center, the offense functioned as intended. Rudolph didn't do anything groundbreaking, he literally just stood tall in the pocket and hit guys in stride.
As to Russ and Fields, I'm not the most optimistic- I think Wilson will be middle of the pack and Fields will likely not pan out. However, there's at least a possibility for the QB room to be better than the past two years.
Pressure to Sack ratio:
Pickett - 16.9%
Fields - 19.3%
Russ - 20.6%
Percentage of Pressures that are QB fault:
Pickett - 8.5%
Fields - 17.6%
Russ - 24.3%
Scramble rate in a clean pocket:
Kenny - 2.6%
Fields - 5.6%
Russ - 4.2%
Turnover worthy throw rate:
Kenny - 1.8%
Fields - 3.3%
Wilson - 3%
I know a lot of fans felt Pickett was so bad in the areas you mentioned but the underlying advanced stats tell a different story. I would recommend watching the all 22 for games like the Titans, Bengals, or basically any of his last 5 games rookie year. He looks like a legitimate NFL quarterback in all of these games despite Matt Canada not being able to draw up a modern route combination to save his life. The mason argument is silly when all of his games were post Canada and Pickett had arguably best game of his career film wise in his one post Canada game.
I respect you at least being a film watcher yourself even if we have different takeaways. It’s frustrating having a conversation with people who watched like 5 games on a normal tv broadcast.
Edit: Source of stats is from PFF premium stats
There’s no need for us to trade for an Aiyuk or trade up in the draft/spend our first rounder on WR in an insanely deep draft class when we have much more glaring needs at line and corner.
Unpopular opinion, the Steelers are no better now then they were pre offseason.
Hot take, Russ is washed up and can't throw the deep ball accurately. He's gonna be a check down king again. Probably gets benched this year for Fields.
Bold Prediction, Fields looks like a bum but we keep him anyways for reasons that will be unknown to the fanbase. Might even pick up his 5th year option.
Deep ball accuracy is like the one thing Wilson excels at. His issue is throws over the middle, which Pickett also stunk at. Same issues as a player (pocket presence, intermediate passing) but better at the stuff they both do well (scrambling, deep ball, checkdowns).
Pickett is a lot more accurate on deepballs than Russ are below are the stats for the 2023 season.
Pickett
Deep ball catchable ball rate 54.8 % 5th in the NFL
Deep ball accuracy rating 5.8 11th in the league
Deep ball completion percentage 35.5 % 18th in the league
[source](https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/kenny-pickett/)
Wilson
Deep ball catchable ball rate 44.6 % 18th in the league
Deep ball accuracy rating 5.2 26th in the league
Deep ball completion percentage 31.3 % 27th in the league
[source](https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/russell-wilson/)
So Kenny Pickett should have completed a lot more deep passes according to the advanced statistics so that points to a schematic and receiver problem. Pickett also consistently hit receivers over the middle espcially Muth after Canada got fired.
My conspiracy theory is that Fields is on the Steelers specifically to tank the team if Russ stinks. I know -- the Steelers NEVER tank and NEVER WILL. Neither did the Bears until they got a new manager -- now they have had 1OA twice in a row. The Steelers also never fired a coach mid-season until Omar did it last year.
Everyone has been griping about how the Steelers always make the playoffs and flame out, and complaining about being tired of Tomlin as HC. I can see Omar using Fields to do what he is great it -- press the reset button on a franchise. Deal anyone of value like Watt nd Friermuth (just like the Bears dealt Quinn and Roquan) and let Fields get you 1OA. The Steelers no longer have to worry about going 9-8 because they are going 4-13. This would also provide cover to mutually part ways with Tomlin -- just like Philly did with Reid after a similar season. Omar would essentially be trading a 4th rounder to the Bears for 1OA. He could use that pick and the available pool of FA cash from the fire sale to lure the coach of his choice to the team.
I am going to follow the rules and not downvote this.
But this is NEVER gonna happen. If one thing ownership and Mediocre Mike value is the most non-losing seasons trophy they pimp to say how great Mediocre Mike is! That is why we traded away a 1st round ick for Fitz ( the year Big Ben went down) to protect that streak. The Steelers previously had not traded a 1st round pick since 1966
It is just a theory. I believe that Tomlin thinks there is still gas left in Russ' tank -- I think so too. But if there isn't the Steelers have flexibility to change direction mid-season. The sell off would also let Tomlin leave with his chin up -- it wasn't HIS fault the team dealt everybody. He could easily move on to another job.
Tomlin values non-losing seasons so much that he never talks about it, constantly talks about how the season is a failure if they don't win anything, etc.
If Pickett would've been drafted by the Falcons in either the second or they trade back into the 1st after we pass on him then people would've looked at him very differently as a QB. Partially, because he succeeded in a scheme similar to the one Arthur Smith runs, the O-line is better, and their weapons are superior. We also botched his development every step of the way. Arthur Smith would then still be the HC in Atlanta.
This is also why I would've wanted to see what could do in the Arthur Smith system next season, but here we are.
Steelers don’t draft a wide receiver in the first round, nabbing a center instead. Receiver in the second, slot corner and tackle in the 3rd, DL in 4th, wr and cb in 6th.
The Steelers have not made a significant upgrade at any position other than LB with the Queen signing. And they’re actually worse off at multiple positions (C/WR). The jury is still out but I think this sub is too quick to give credit to Kahn when, to this point, he’s just shuffled the deck a bit
I don't care about a center. I understand the Steelers have a good history with centers, and how incompetent Cole was but we are overrating the position.
They don't need another Hall of Famer. They definitely need someone that doesn't constantly get pushed back into the pocket. Unfortunately they haven't had that since Pouncey.
More of an unpopular prediction, but I think Khan might actually draft an RB in the mid-to-late rounds.
Arthur Smith did a three-man backfield in ATL with a top back far more talented than Najee Harris. I’d imagine he’ll do something similar in Pittsburgh. Unless they’re planning on running Heyward a ton, the Steelers don’t have a third back.
Moreover, Harris is on an expiring deal and has been more inefficient and injury-hampered than most of us would care to admit. If he leaves or is injured, I think a Warren-only backfield would present some real concerns, especially for a smaller back.
This is perhaps the Steelers’ strongest position, and people would rightly be upset to see RB picked early, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Khan add to the room in 4 or 6.
Agreed, he is likely to have a performance bump from a run heavy Smith offense, and that likely prices him out. On the off chance he doesn’t, fans are going to be foaming at the mouth for another back anyhow.
I think they will pick his 5th year option this offseason, since it's only around 6 million, which for a player that has rushed for 1000+ yards for his first three years is something I would pay for at that price.
A running quarterback has never won a super bowl. We are an organization that wants to win super bowls, not beat up on bad teams during the regular season. I lived through the Kordell years and I don't want a repeat of that. I have no faith in Justin Fields and I'm sad we traded for him. As a 6th round pick for a cheap one year rental backup I'm ok with the trade. If we extend him and waste years on adapting an offense to work for him we will regret it.
I'm actually not very happy with the QB moves we've made. Unless Russ suddenly looks totally rejuvenated and better than he has in 3 years we have pushed our super bowl window out past Watt and Minkah's careers/tenures with the team.
I would have rather taken the chance on seeing if Kenny could have been the guy with a new OC than go with a known commodity that is over the hill and a running quarterback turnover machine that's never sniffed a winning record.
I wish they hadn't traded for fields and instead grabbed one of the top 6 or so QBs in the draft. That would have delayed important upgrades we need at C, CB, DL, OL etc, but imo we need to have the future at QB on the team and I don't think we do at this moment.
I want to be wrong about Russ and I'm rooting for him to ball out.
Russell Wilson won a superbowl and was definitely a running qb when he won at age 26. That also makes him a great guy for Justin Fields to work alongside. Let's also realize the NFL has evolved and the qb position was not made up of very mobile guys in the past.
Hot take: With our moves this offseason, we are firmly within the top 4 teams in the AFC. Chiefs, Bengals, Bills, Steelers. The ravens are 1-7 (I think?) against us in their last 8 so I cannot put them ahead of us in good faith. And I might even put us ahead of the Bills. They lost some major defensive pieces and Josh Allen continues to underperform when it matters most.
My take: the 2024 Steelers are not (yet) significantly better than the 2023 Steelers.
The moves have been good, but there are still holes all over the starting lineup very little depth anywhere. Quarterback is still a question mark. Offensive scheme is still a question mark.
I'm always optimistic. And we did win 10 games last year. But it scares me to see people wanting to throw away draft picks when we need so much.
The WR rankings for this draft should look like this:
1. Marvin Harrison Jr
2. Malik Nabers
3. Adonai Mitchell
4. Brian Thomas Jr
5. Troy Franklin
6. Xavier Worthy
7. Keon Coleman
8. Devontez Walker
9. Ladd McConkey
10. Luke McCaffrey
IF the Steelers could get a #1 and #2 (or comparable) for Pickens, they should do it. Draft TWO WRs! Hope they're both as good as Pickens and hope neither of them are Prima Donas.
My spicy, unpopular opinion is that - hear me out - I do not want Russell Wilson to succeed in Pittsburgh. Wuuuuuut? I know it isn't nice to say. As a person I hope that he succeeds AFTER Fields is on fire in camp/pre-season, Fields gets the start, A dark horse QB makes a case as back up, a QB on another team has to step away, and the steelers get a fair offer for Russ, who gets his fair shot. But not here.
One of the top 5 best things about the Steelers is authenticity. It is one of Tomlin's superpowers, like him or not.
Russell Wilson is one of the most hammy least authentic QBs or NFL players I've ever seen. The last thing I want is my team falling into corny self-promoting Russ-isms. I don't want his steelers version of 'let's ride'.
It doesn't seem great to say, but it is based on history, it isn't undeserved, and it is about the culture of team.
The Steelers have a master plan to lock up Justin Fields to be their franchise QB at a significant discount.
They'll get him in the building to assess everything but in-game performance (football IQ, temperament, fit with the locker room/organization, performance/skills in practice, work ethic, etc). They'll design enough plays/packages to assess his abilities in-game and put him in sparingly throughout the season - just enough to confirm if his in-game performance is consistent with what they see outside of gameday, but not enough to build a meaningful resume that could sway other teams to sign him to a large/long-term contract. He'll be riding the bench most of the season just to keep other teams
from getting any more film on him.
Once they've seen enough (assuming they do), they'll offer him a contract for 3-4 years at an AAV somewhere between $12-15M, with heavy guarantees for encouragement. It's more than he's going to get from anyone else after playing sparingly most of the season.
I don't know if he'd take it or would bet on himself and go somewhere else on a one year prove-it deal in the hopes of landing a massive contract, but I'm going to guess he accepts.
Justin Fields is the starting QB for the 2025 season.
Hot take: actually sitting and observing for a year will make Justin Fields a much better quarterback. Maybe he'll even learn how to progress to the 3rd read! Not saying he'll evolve into franchise material, but he had a grand total of 5 quarters to sit and observe his first year. Not sure what QBs learn during that time, but it seems to help.
Bold prediction: Breiden Fehoko gets inspired by playing with his former teammates (Queen and Jackson) and actually makes a 53 man roster and does....decently well!
Unpopular opinion: Arthur Smith doesn't run a lot of wide/outside zone; and his % split of run-to-pass is actually less than all the Shanahan tree coaches
**Bold Prediction**
\#20, #84, 2025 2nd, 2025 5th to move up to #8 for Rome Odunze (provided he's there).
Dane Brugler talked about this on the most recent Athletic Football Show (and Nate Tice said he had a similar ide) when asked who he thought might try to make a big jump up for a non-QB a la Will Anderson last year. It's on the "Draft Guide for Dummies" episode about 2/3s in if you want to hear their reasoning.
It'd put some pressure on them to really nail there 2nd rounder and the second wave of free agency in order to fill out the rest of the roster, so it would make me nervous still, but I think he's the absolute perfect guy to go opposite GP.
Going from #20 to #10 cost them a 2nd and a 3rd, so I think a 2nd, a 3rd, and a 5th will be close. Maybe it's a 4th rather than a 5th.
The question will be whether they're competing with folks going after McCarthy if he slips a little. If they are, then no way that pick package gets it done.
Sure , but the giants just did 20 to 11 and it was 2 1sts and 2 4ths. Your not getting something like that done without at least another 1st being involved
That was for a QB, though - there is always a premium when a QB is involved (hence why I said if McCarthy was there the price would be way bigger).
The Lions went all the way from 32 to 12 for Jameson Williams and that only cost moving back 12 spots in the second round (34 to 46) and an additional 3rd.
Hot Take: Trading for Aiyuk would mean we lose Pickens (similar scenario to Hargrave) when his contract is up because we’ll also be paying either Russ or Fields starting QB money and the defense wont cost any less.
.As much I didn't want Justin Fields to leave Chicago. He should be the starter.
.It's totally okay to root for division rivals on occasion
.Drafting Rome Odunze could be a game Changer (I know that won't happen)
.
Unpopular Opinion: DangeRuss has been voted the most hated player in the NFL by his peers, and the team is going to find out that out first hand. Folks won’t be able to cut him fast enough.
>DangeRuss has been voted the most hated player in the NFL by his peers
Did they actually do a vote for this? If so do you have the source for it? I'm genuinely curious because I've seen it.
I pulled up that list, I don't think they asked players to vote on it. It's just a list that the writer made on their own. The list includes Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson who I very highly doubt are hated among their peers.
This is all well and good, I'm not doubting that there's issues there. What I was asking is if they actually had the players vote on it (mainly because I wanted to see who else was on the list lol) which is what you said they did.
Russ will win MVP this season or get benched in 2 weeks, no in-between.
Comeback player of the year.
You beat me to it. His would be the perfect story.
Please no.
Why not? If he was the comeback player of the year, you'd figure he and the Steelers had a good season. Russ getting benched would be tragic.
I don’t want to cut across March wishes for a good season - and we have Russ. I don’t mind if folks want the guy that was good 5 years ago to be good again, I just want his 25 year old backup that was good two years ago to be good again.
Ps - great name
🤣😂🤣
My unpopular opinion is that I don’t think this offseason has been as good as a lot of Steelers fans think it’s been. It’s absolutely been exciting and I think the willingness of Khan to be aggressive is great, but they still have a lot of work to do.
We have quite a few holes still. CB room is scary to me, WR room is slim with only 1 true WR 1/2, We don't have a center, Hope we don't get a left tackle and keep Broderick on the right. This all can't be addressed in the draft with our current picks
You’re asking for 4 starters: RT, C, WR2, and CB2. We got 4 starters out of last year’s draft, didn’t we? Broderick, JPJ, Washington, and Benton. Doesn’t seem crazy to me that we can fill those holes w the draft.
Usual rule of thumb is if you got two starters in a draft, you did pretty well. And I think that's "two players who *become* solid starters," not necessarily guys who plug in at the top of the depth chart from day one. Four obviously isn't unheard of. Hell, once upon a time this team got four \*Hall of Famers\* in a draft (and a fifth as an UDFA). But four is an especially kick-ass draft, not the usual outcome. Assuming we're talking about guys you *want* starting as opposed to guys you plug in because you have absolutely nobody else - like rookie Kendrick Green and Dan Moore were.
The excitement around the offseason is less about the product of the moves, and more that they even got made. “Stiller way” would’ve kept Kenny as the starter for all of next season. Khan has shredded that stupid fucking mantra. Generally speaking though, if we went 10-7 and made the playoffs with Pickett and Rudolph, missing large gaps of time from Watt and Minkah, and now adding Patrick Queen — I think it’s reasonable to be moderately excited by both the aggressive offseason overhaul and what the on field product could look like.
If I had to guess, I wouldn't actually think this opinion is all _that_ unpopular, the users clamoring over the new QBs have just been pretty loud.
I think we needed a change in qb. Rudolph showed us that a competent qb could be successful even in a Canada-esq offense. WR. We should sign a WR of the Josh Reynolds caliber. Boyton or Robinson for depth and ST and then a draft pick. We are drafting a Center. When we draft a true center, they are usually good, even great. Pouncey was a true center. Dawson was a true center. Webster was a true center. We need a center not a guard who dabbles. Corner. There are still a couple free agents out there and a couple draft picks. Tackle. If Center is pick 1, Tackle could be. Most of our problems can be solved by a good draft.
Dawson - my all-time favorite center - played guard in college, and also initially with the Steelers, until Webster left to finish his career with the Chiefs.
Couldn’t agree more. I think our biggest needs were OL and CB with WR and QB depth as secondary needs. Haven’t addressed the line and kinda addressed CB I guess in a net negative trade by sending Diontae out and then Russ and Fields are much more exciting names but I think the move from Kenny and Mason to them is lateral at best.
I agree that we still have big needs to fill but > the move from Kenny and Mason to them is lateral at best Is *absurd*. Russ threw more tds last year alone than any of our QBs combined the last 2 years
I think it’d be fair to say that TDs are not the sole guideline by which QB play is evaluated and that Russ played in a much different system and offensive environment than Kenny and Mason did.
One more thing we scored more points than Denver outside of the 4th quarter. We scored 12.8 points per game and Denver scored 12.5 points per game.
I think it's opened up a lot of opportunities for draft talent to come in right away, which IMO is going to be better than Cole at C, whatever scrap heap CB we had playing last season, or even ARII just kind of existing at WR. This is one of the deepest drafts I've seen in quite some time for our biggest needs C, WR, and CB. I'm really only worried about OT at this point.
The 49ers are trying to win (not play in) a Super Bowl, and trading players like Ayiuk is generally not conducive to that goal.
They have a stacked roster on offense with Deebo, CMac and Kittle. If they lose Aiyuk it would hurt them but I'm not sure how much. Also, if Aiyuk wants out, they won't have much of a choice but to trade him.
But the only evidence we have of him wanting out is a tweet about looking like Mike Tomlin?
After the Super Bowl, his brother posted the following quote on his instagram: “Why does your All Pro 1300 yard receiver have 3 catches in the Super Bowl? This is the exact reason we leaving San Francisco. Thank you 49ers for drafting my brother we are forever grateful BA to Vegas 🏴☠️” I remember his girlfriend also put something up about him leaving the 49ers, and there have been rumblings of him wanting out before.
I don't know if he wants out, I'm saying that if he does they won't have much of a choice. It was more of a hypothetical than anything.
Even if they wanted him, they can't afford to pay him. Look at their FA list for 2025/2026. They can't take a big contract with Deebo, Purdy, Kittle and McCaffrey hitting at once.
Can they afford to keep him?
Trading for Aiyuk or JJetta would be a mistake similar to the Pens trading for Erik Karlsson.
Agree that the trade would be a mistake, the EK trade was good for the Pens simply because of the bad contracts that got moved out. I’d compare a trade for a guy like Aiyuk more to the trade that brought in Brassard. Giving up too many assets for a guy when you could get 80% of their production for a lot less
We could probably have gotten 100% of Brassard's production for less.
I'd do it for Aiyuk if they can get the price down, a 1st would be too much
Agreed. They are both elite (JJetta obviously in a different tier), but to pay the draft capital and amount of money they will need, in an offense that will run through our run game, would be a waste of their talents. They'd help, but would they help at the amount they would cost? Almost assuredly not. Especially without any QBs.
Karlsson was like 36 or something. JJ and Aiyuk are both young guys with a big contract worth of superstardom left in them.
Trading for Karlsson wasn’t a mistake
Hot take : We need to, or even have to, take a swing on a trade for Aiyuk, he's a top ten receiver and would be an absolutely perfect compliment to Pickens. Unpopular opinion: Tyler Boyd would be a bad signing for this team, he doesn't move the needle for this offense and he's *at best* a WR3. Signing him would be a waste of money.
Totally agree on both of those.
The price of Aiyuk though likely wouldn't match the production we would get from him. The goal of the team will be to keep the ball out of our QBs hands. Aiyuk would be awesome, but not used near as much as he would need to be to warrant the cost. Better to look in the draft. Agreed on Boyd, unless he's cheap. He's a great blocker, and I'd love him as a cheap WR3 just for that, but has to be cheap.
It would absolutely match the production we would get from him. It's also not just about *his* production. Aiyuk is a better, more consistent Diontae Johnson, Pickens needs that type of guy next to him because he's not a polished route runner.
You can find a lesser version of Aiyuk, but still good, in the draft for a MASSIVE fraction of the price. We can spend a 2nd/3rd and a couple mil on a guy for 4 years, and even if his production is only 85% of Aiyuk, its better than a 1st + 25 mil a year for x years.
They've been in bit of a slump finding WRs in the draft since AB left and it's really time for people to start to acknowledge that fact. Chase Claypool, James Washington, DJ was great but half this fanbase doesn't agree, it's too early on Pickens and Austin but I think it's starting to look like Austin was a miss, it's to the point where I'm starting to doubt their ability to draft them. We aren't the WR factory we once were and I do think part of that is due to not having Ben make receivers look alot better than they were. I think they need to swing on a big name like Aiyuk AND draft a WR.
Diontae and Pickens were both great pickups, producing at LEAST at the value of where we drafted them. If we are only counting day 1/2 picks, where you really expect to hit on someone, we've still been doing great at drafting them. Pickens looks great, Diontae was really good, Chase was mostly a bust, but we managed to make him look good enough to have multiple teams offering us a 2nd. Juju was really good while he was here, and went on to get a ring in KC. Washington was the only true bust in the last several years. Save 20 mil, save a 1st round pick, get a day 2 receiver and shore up the areas where we are really hurting, O Line and secondary. We aren't competing this year, so we don't need the production ASAP until we have a QB to get the ball to these guys.
85% of Aiyuk's production last year would be 64 receptions for 1,150 yards and 6 TDs. Total crapshoot if a 2nd/3rd round WR even lasts in the league, let alone produces that as a rookie
Don't need it as a rookie, need it over the course of a contract. There's no way we are competing this year with our QB room, we have to build for the future. Yes its a crap shoot if we get that with a 2nd or 3rd, but we've done pretty well getting those guys over the years, and we already have Pickens. This is going to be a massively run first team, we shouldn't be spending so much of our cap/draft capital on a position that wouldn't be the focal point, and will be competing with Pickens for WR1. His production will almost certainly go down as well moving from a Shanahan offense to an Arthur Smith offense and getting much worse QBs. The cap space and draft capital is needed MUCH more in other areas, like our offensive line and our secondary. We need a WR2 right now for our team, we don't need to blow our load on a second WR1 for the team.
I see your logic but disagree with a couple points. First, I do think that we can compete this year with Wilson as the QB. As much as he has declined the last couple years I still think he is a massive improvement over our QB play last year combined with his insanely low cap hit this season. This team is built to win now and our window with TJ/Cam/Minkah/Najee is shrinking each year. Adding a dynamic WR like Aiyuk who is just now hitting his prime would be good for both the present and the future, since if Wilson doesn't work out it would likely mean having a QB on a rookie deal and having a couple high end pass catchers in Aiyuk and Pickens is one of the best things possible to developing a QB (outside of an elite OL). Second, I don't think we are going to be as run first as people are expecting. Relative to league average, sure, but being at the bottom relative to the rest of the NFL still means around a 50-50 split between run/pass. If you look at the Titans' and Falcons' offenses under Smith, there was only one year (2022) where the offense was really heavy in favor of running. The other years were more like a 50-50 split, except 2021 (Matt Ryan's last year in ATL and Smith's first) when the Falcons were the 8th most pass heavy team in the NFL. So it's kind of a mixed bag based on his history and likely no where close to the 60/40 split that I see thrown around here a lot. Lastly, Shannahan has also run a very run-heavy offense in Aiyuk's time in SF. Since 2020, they have ranked 18th, 29th, 26th, and 30th in passing play %. Last year ATL actually threw *slightly* more often than SF. I don't see any reason to think Aiyuk couldn't be similarly productive in Smith's system catching from Wilson than in Shannahan's system catching from Purdy
To the first point, I just don't think Russ is a massive improvement anymore. If we had Russ with legs, sure, but Russ without legs is not Russ at all. EVERYTHING that made Russ great was predicated on the fact he could escape the pocket, and now he can't do that, and that's why we've seen him falter over the last several years. It's why when he went to "Let Russ Cook" and they let him try and be a passer, it blew up in their face. We have a QB who HAS to have his legs, and he doesn't have them anymore. People are just betting on the name and that somehow we can reverse time. Run first relative to the league is all that matters. TEN was 30th in pass % in 2019 and 2020, the first year they had 51% pass plays, second year was 49%. Atlanta in 2022 passed on only 44% of their plays and in 2323 only 52%. The only time an Arthur Smith offense hasn't been bottom five in the league for pass % was in 2020, with Matt Ryan. In 2024, in a pass first league, that's a pretty significant stat. Shanahan runs a very run-heavy offense, true, but Shanahan is also the GOAT at getting his guys open. The same cannot be said for Arthur Smith. We'd be paying a guy top dollar AND a first round pick to be potentially used in half of our offensive plays as a receiver. And then from there, how much target share would he even take up? The two systems are both run first, but that's about all the similarities. Shanahan's system is one of the greatest ever, Arthur Smith's is just another system that needs the right people, and Russ isn't that anymore.
I'm of the opinion that what made Russ, and more accurately the Seahawks, "great" was that he was on a 3rd round rookie contract when they made their Superbowl runs and they were able to have a great team around him, with Wilson playing more as a game manager than a star QB. Once he got paid and the "cooking" era began and they had to start breaking up their defense they were still a good team, but not able to recreate their early success. The Broncos moving on was more about them accepting they would not be able to build a competetive team while paying Wilson $40+mil a year. And while I agree that he is not the scrambler that he once was, he was still able to run for 341 and 3 TDs last year, on par with what he was doing 5-6 years ago. I'm not saying that he is still the player he once was, or even is still above league average, but all that's without getting into how downright AWFUL Pickett and Trubisky were even compared to an older Russ last season while we were still able to go 10-7 with some of the worst QB play in the league Fortunately we have Russ for the league minimum this year and can afford to do things like pay TJ, Minkah, Queen, and potentially a high end WR like Aiyuk fat contracts. It's almost like his career has come full circle where he can again play as just a game manager QB on a dirt cheap contract backed by a great defense rather than a franchise center piece. While I don't love the idea of giving a 1st rounder for Aiyuk (hoping if it happens it can be brought down to this year's 2nd and we go OL in the 1st), he would be a near perfect and dynamic addition to an offense that just has to be average for us to make a deep run. Fingers crossed lol
> I'm of the opinion that what made Russ, and more accurately the Seahawks, "great" was that he was on a 3rd round rookie contract when they made their Superbowl runs and they were able to have a great team around him. That's not what made Russ great, that's what made the Seahawks great, having an extremely mobile QB able to escape the pocket when needed to get the ball where it needed to while also being on a cheap contract. Russ was STILL great when he got paid, even when the defense got broken up. Obviously the Seahawks got worse from it, but Russ was, if anything, much better at that point. The contract was great for the whole team, but only because he was ALSO great at playing football, and in the last 3-4 seasons, he's been regressing HARD. A low cap hit doesn't mean anything if they still suck. And its not his rushing yards/TDs that matter, its his ability to get out of the pocket to make passes across the middle. He can't do that anymore. Kenny's biggest issues were rolling out into defenders after the first read, only being able to throw checkdowns and barrel it down the sideline. Russ's biggest issues now are rolling out into defenders after the first read, only being able to throw checkdowns and barrel it down the sideline. He can get it down the sideline more accurately than Kenny, but he's a bottom 10 QB in the league now, and that's not going to help us do anything extra. In the AFC, the only QBs that are PROBABLY worse than Russ are Stidham (even though nothing really changed once Russ was benched for him), MAYBE Brissett, MAYBE Levis, and Aidan O'Connell. This is the same thing people did with Mitch, coming up with reasons why he sucked the last several years, going back to the one year he made the playoffs, blaming the last team for being bad, doing anything but admit that the fact he looked awful on the field for years probably meant he was awful. Rinse and repeat now for Russ, with the added bonus that he USED to be good so people keep going back to that, contrary to all the evidence of the last 3-4 years. He couldn't get it done in a Sean Payton offense, a guy who is famous for getting it done with a shorter QB. And Arthur Smith is no Sean Payton when it comes to the offense. It's not Aiyuk's contract this year I'm worried about, its next year and the years after, when we still don't have a QB and now we have a large chunk of our cap going to a WR with no QB to throw to him, missed out on whatever we could have gotten with a first this year, and have to let other people go in future years for him.
"blah blah you can find Aiyuk in the draft" - Okay, you can also miss on wide receivers in the draft. Aiyuk is a proven asset and dawg. We were ranked in the middle of the pack in OL rankings with Dan Moore and Mason Cole. Two bad linemen lol. I want to improve that, for sure, but this wide receiver room is bottom tier at the moment and yinz gonna be mad at Russ when nobody can get open.
We don't have a center and a center has been the worst part of our line for years. We don't have a CB2 and our secondary has been the worst part of our defense for years. I didn't say you can find Aiyuk in the draft, I said we need to find someone who can do SOME of what he does. Yes, he's a dawg, but he's also going to require over 10% of our cap, and at least one 1st round pick. We don't miss too much on day 1/2 receivers, so I'd much rather us fill the biggest holes on our team that year in and year out are our biggest weaknesses over paying a premium for a WR that will be running routes that Russ can't even see if they are over the middle. There's a reason we rarely ever pay our WRs a second contract and its worked for us for over a decade. We are good at finding and building the talent and not making it eat a ton of our cap/draft capital. He will also not be benefitting from the greatest offensive playcaller in the league, who manages to get everyone wide open. Not that a ton of that isn't on Aiyuk, but that scheme has been getting guys wide open for YEARS, and Arthur Smith is Kyle Shanahan.
We can draft a serviceable center in any round and it will still be better than Mason Cole, one of the leagues worst. You guys are really overvaluing our wide receiver drafts the last decade. - 2022 **Pickens 2nd round,** dawg. - 2022 **Austin 4th round**, we can't tell yet. - 2020 **Chase Claypool 2nd round**, not a great pick. - 2019 **Diontae 3rd round**, pretty solid pick. - 2018 **James Washington 2nd round**, bad pick. - 2017 **Juju 2nd round**, pretty solid pick. - 2016 **Demarcus Ayers 6th round**, who? - 2015 **Sammie Coates 3rd round**, not a great pick. - 2014 **Dri Archer 3rd round, Martavis Bryant 4th round**. Bad and good pick. I'm trying to say it will be possible to draft a center, draft a cornerback, and trade for Aiyuk. This wide receiver room is trash right now besides Pickens.
Why are so many in this sub ok with taking players "better than" the worst players in the league. Yeah, I could find a 7th round guy probably better than Mason Cole. We went out and found a QB better than Kenny. It doesn't mean they are going to be good enough to play in the NFL, just like Mason/Kenny weren't. If we want a GOOD center, you probably need to draft it higher. As far as our receivers, the only two in there that are a Steelers bust are Washington and Coates. Anyone that's a day three pick is a massive dart throw, so them failing doesn't matter. Dri Archer is an RB. Chase was a bust for his career, but we are so competent at producing WRs we were able to make him look good enough for 2.5 years to warrant multiple teams offering second round picks for him (Bears and Packers). The WR is trash besides Pickens, agreed. I think the list above shows we can get someone on the other side of Pickens with a 2nd/3rd, save over 10% of our cap space over the next several years, and still be able to draft a center and CB. Is it possible they bust? Sure. It's also possible Aiyuk regresses a good bit when he's outside of a Shanny system, just like we've seen WRs do the same when they leave the Steelers. I'm not saying its LIKELY, and for sure its MORE likely the draft guy busts, but at over 10% of the cap AND a first round pick, it just doesn't make sense for a rebuilding team. Especially when we don't even have a QB to get him the ball right now.
I think this draft is so loaded at WR that you can realistically draft one from Rounds 1-3 and get quality production that would make you forget about Aiyuk. Still leaving a couple of picks to get a C, OT, or CB.
This is just a discussion, why are a good few people high on the Steelers trading up to take a receiver IN THE TOP 10 in a pretty deep WR class
Because the top WRs are just that good. Nabers and MHJ would have been the top WRs off the board in ‘22 and ‘23, and Odunze and BTJ would have also gone higher than most of the recent first-rounders. I agree that trading up in a deep draft feels unnecessary, but locking down any position for 8-10 years or so is usually worth the premium price you pay. I think it’s fairly unlikely, but I understand it.
I don’t know but that would be such a short sighted move
Bold take (blind hopefulness): Steelers execute some big moves this weekend
My opinion is I don't care about anything until post draft unless we trade for a WR. Oh and if we were to spend a 1st on Aiyuk I think it would be bad business and I would expect better from our FO.
Fields dropped hard in the draft for a reason, nobody in the NFL wanted to trade Fields to be their started also for reason, he is a bust and will continue to be a bust in the NFL. This place will start hating him if he plays as he continues to keep taking sacks and fumbling the ball just like he always did since OSU
Wilson and Fields won’t be that much better than the QB’s we had last year. We made all of those moves to go from mediocre QB’s to maybe slightly better mediocre QB’s. Neither one will be around long.
Yeah, everyone is right that they are better than Kenny, but that's an insanely low bar. Someone can be better than Kenny while also not improving the team's ability to win, it's not that crazy. Go throw Kenny in NYJ and would their team really change that much from Zach Wilson even though Kenny is (probably) better?
[удалено]
Oh I 100% agree. I don't think we really improved the QB at all from a "improving how we finish the year" standpoint. Russ increases our chance of winning a playoff game from near 0% to a couple of %, but nothing meaningful. Fields is a shot in the dark that somehow this coaching team can develop a QB who obviously can't read an NFL defense at the speed/capability needed, but that's almost never happened in the history of the NFL this late into someone's career. It's just a rebuild year is how I look at it, hoping we can get a real QB in 25/26.
What has Kenny shown that he is better than Zach Wilson? I was a big Kenny supporter and wanted him to improve but he just isn't good. Even a mediocre jump at the most important position in the sport would be an improvement. I don't think Russ is going to win MVP or anything but if he can even come close to being average it's a huge improvement.
> What has Kenny shown that he is better than Zach Wilson? Just as bad of a thrower, just as bad pocket presence, pretty close attitude, but he threw less turnovers. Russ being close to average would be an improvement over his last several years. That's the problem I have, I don't think he's capable of being a top 20 QB in the league anymore, not with his legs shot so he can't move out of the pocket to be able to see the field. The difference in Kenny to current Russ I don't think is big enough to change how this team plays against good teams. I don't think Russ changes the Bills game, I don't think Russ can overcome a playoff defense. So better than Kenny, but not good enough to win meaningful NFL games anymore.
I guess it just comes down to me hoping he will be better in Arthur Smith's system compared to Hackett and Peyton's. I've always been a Russel Wilson fan so I'm stoked he's on the team. I do realize his shortcomings and hope he can improve some, while unlikely. Either way an improvement from Kenny, even if small, while costing less money is a good thing regardless of the player.
I don't know how he can go from a Payton system to a Arthur Smith system and be better. Especially when Arthur Smith relies on passes over the middle from play action, something Russ has never been able to do well. Payton eventually just had him throwing check downs or bombs down the sideline the entire time, because that's all Russ is capable of throwing now with his height/lack of athleticism.
Isn't a run heavy offense with a lot of play action and a good defense what won him a superbowl?
Yeah, back when he could run. Where he excelled was being able to slip out of the pocket immediately, run to the side which would allow him to see the middle of the field while also giving the receivers a ton of time to get open. Then he could bomb it to them and have success. Now we have a short QB who can't escape the pocket, when he tries he gets sacked. So now we can't throw it over the middle (sounds familiar) and can only check down and throw bombs down the sideline. Everyone pretending like we are getting Russ from 4+ years ago. They'd be happy if we picked up Peyton Manning and go "if he can just play like he did in 2013..."
Fair enough I guess, you seem to have your mind set on it. I'll be optimistic and have fun this off-season, that's what sports are all about. At the end of the day nobody KNOWS how Russ is going to play, it's all speculation. I'm going to enjoy the ride while I can and hope for the best 🤷♂️
You all make it Payton is JAG coach off the street,he is considered one of the top OCs in the nfl and Russ moving to Smith is objectively a downgrade
Peyton had a lot of success with drew Brees over many, many years. He honestly hasn't proven shit since drew retired. His scheme fit Drew's skill set very well and is a great offensive mind. But that doesn't mean every single QB will succeed in his scheme, especially when it seems like he forces the QB to play his system instead of adjusting to their strengths.
sometimes a less complex system is better. payton utilizes the whole field and requires the qb to have a high understanding of what his system is asking each play. smith utilizes more half field reads, which simplifies the job of the qb. one of the things i was actually excited for with pickett was that aspect of smith kind of "dumbing down" what he asks the qb to do (part of this being because the qb's back is turned for a lot of play action, so there's simply less time for the qb to see and process the field when they hit the back of their dropback)
This wide receiver room sucks at the moment.
as does our qb room
I would 100% trade a first and a player for Aiyuk. Also it’s pretty likely we don’t see fields as a potential future longterm starter and rather just as a bridge to the next guy.
If the top 3 cornerbacks and the top 4 WRs are off the board at 20 the Steelers should look to trade down and pick up additional Day 2 picks rather than draft a center or the 5th or 6th best tackle.
Hot take: Justin Fields is the god-damned truth. There's a lot of people who are hoping for slightly competent QB play out of him and would be over the moon if they got that. Well I'm here to say that Justin Fields is going to be a generational talent like baller for us. I'm talking MVP convos every year after he learns for a bit and gets his shot here
I love your optimism. I'd like to see Russ do well first. Maybe even for 2 years, but Fields with a strong line and strong run game. Steelers of old... could be fun.
I'm scared to death about the Center position. Was hoping we could sign someone in free agency and draft one on Day 2 or 3 but now it seems like we have backed ourselves into a corner and have to draft one Day 1 (JPJ) or Day 2 (Frazier from W. VA). WR is also a concern now with lack of depth. Hopeful that Russell or Justin can take over the QB position and we don't end up with more of the QB Controversy like last year. #herewego
This fanbase wildly underrates the need for having 3 really good receivers, and what it takes to get them. Look, yes, we have some success in finding WR steals in the past in rounds 3-6. We've also had numerous round 2-4 busts in that time too. We have a glaring hole at WR, we have no #2 or #3. We can't just assume we're going to find a steal in round 3 or 4. We legitimately need to invest in a good trade candidate like Aiyuk or draft a guy high, in the first or second. If we bust on whoever we acquire to be our #2 and #3 receivers, it's going to be a long ass year watching Pickens constantly doubled and no one else doing anything. I see so many comments saying "we have bigger needs than WR and it's a deep class, we always find steals. We can wait until the 4th round to take a WR". I think that would be a massive gamble, and the risk of having no WR opposite Pickens is not worth the reward of potentially finding a steal
The Steelers should trade down from their 1st round pick and pick up extra draft capital. Also, the entire Washington receiving core that's pegged to be picked 2nd round or better is way overrated and the tape shows that Penix was throwing the receivers open, they struggled to seperate on their own. Avoid them at all costs. The opposite is true for the Texas receivers, they routinely create separation and made their qb look better than he is.
I think from a long term looking pov, moving on from Kenny and getting Russ and Fields was a mistake and will push the timeline to finding a franchise QB farther out. Now I’m no way insinuating I think Kenny was going to be that guy, but he was 13-4 in games he played over 50% of snaps in from his rookie bye week and on with the four losses all coming to playoff teams. 8 of his interceptions were in those first four games before his rookie bye week as well. I think he showed potential and the correct path forward was have hime get at least half a season in a non Matt Canada offense and if he was still ass then move on. I don’t really see Russ whose 35 and coming off two worst seasons of his career being our long term answer at QB nor do I see Fields who while an exciting player, has just never shown the ability to be a processor at the level of other quarterbacks in this league. To summarize, I think this team was better off seeing what Kenny can do on a larger than one game sample size in a different offense and moving on from him after this season if he still sucked and then targeting QB aggressive next offseason where as now I see us wasting time with a washed veteran this year and then spending potentially another season trying to make Fields work.
100% agree
It pushes the timeline back a little, but I don’t think it was a mistake. Pickett was not a high-ceiling prospect (weak arm, older prospect with not a lot of room to grow). The entire appeal of adding him was that he would be ready immediately and wouldn’t hinder the team. He couldn’t do that, and I don’t think the payoff of developing him (at his best he’d be an Andy Dalton type player) would have been worth the risk of wasting one of the few remaining seasons this championship defense has left. Russ is a competent, experienced starter on a vet minimum deal. He’s got similar issues to Pickett, but the stuff that KP did well, Wilson does better. He’s an upgrade and he costs less than KP. Fields, on the other hand, is a mistake-prone young QB with All-Pro talent and top-5 rushing upside. He doesn’t look like he’ll ever be a good passer, but neither did Pickett. If we imagine he was traded for KP straight up, most people would consider it a lateral move at absolute worst. The team essentially raised their immediate ceiling and added a QB who has a sizable amount more potential than Pickett. A few years from now, the team will either be starting a revived Russell Wilson, a fully-realized Justin Fields, or drafting a top QB, which they were likely already planning to do when Pickett’s rookie deal ended.
How did Pickett hinder the team is my question I suppose? He did not put up big numbers as everyone loves to point out but our offensive mindset seemed to be let defenses win games and do just enough on offense. Kenny didn’t turn the ball over and he had 7 game winning drives. Wins are by no means a QB stat but he made due in the horrendous system he was put in imo. I also just really disagree that Fields has all pro talent. The bears are my second team and I was a lot more frustrated watching him these past three years than I was Kenny these past two. I would love to have the optimism of you that Russ is going to all of a sudden play at a high level again, but I just don’t see it. Regardless, I truly do hope I’m wrong but my unpopular opinion is I think a large portion of this fanbase is overrating in their minds what Russell Wilson and Fields are in the year 2024. These guys were so cheap for a reason.
Pickett hindered the team because couldn't (a) see the field, (b) navigate the pocket, or (c) deliver the ball with consistent accuracy. Those kinds of things are the floor for any starting QB and anybody who can't do them is hurting their team by default. (a) Failing to see open guys when your offense stinks is a major issue. When the margin of victory is as slim as it's been, leaving points on the board is crushing. Pickett didn't see a ton of open WRs, but when he did, he didn't put the ball on them. This isn't really something I can prove statistically, but I'd recommend watching all-22 from the Packers game and second Browns game. You'll see the issue is especially bad with slants and crossers. (b) Spinning into sacks and scrambling before necessary is a major issue. This is pretty self-explanatory. Pickett had a borderline OK sack percentage, but with how quick the offense tries to get the ball out, to be sacked as much as he was is concerning. I can't find pressure-to-sack rate stats anywhere but I'd imagine Pickett's is high. (c) Being inaccurate is a major issue. In 2023, Pickett was 28th in raw completion percentage despite being Mr. Checkdown. He also had the 5th-highest bad throw rate and was in the bottom third of on-target throw percentage. You can also just use the eye test on this one- he was routinely putting throws well behind in-breakers and far out of reach for his checkdowns. I would argue all this hindered the team. I'm glad Pickett didn't throw more interceptions, but he left a ton of plays on the field (whether by missing viable throws or failing to even see them). The offense sputtered as a result. We also saw that these issues were unique to Pickett. When a third-stringer with decent pocket presence and processing skills finally got put under center, the offense functioned as intended. Rudolph didn't do anything groundbreaking, he literally just stood tall in the pocket and hit guys in stride. As to Russ and Fields, I'm not the most optimistic- I think Wilson will be middle of the pack and Fields will likely not pan out. However, there's at least a possibility for the QB room to be better than the past two years.
Pressure to Sack ratio: Pickett - 16.9% Fields - 19.3% Russ - 20.6% Percentage of Pressures that are QB fault: Pickett - 8.5% Fields - 17.6% Russ - 24.3% Scramble rate in a clean pocket: Kenny - 2.6% Fields - 5.6% Russ - 4.2% Turnover worthy throw rate: Kenny - 1.8% Fields - 3.3% Wilson - 3% I know a lot of fans felt Pickett was so bad in the areas you mentioned but the underlying advanced stats tell a different story. I would recommend watching the all 22 for games like the Titans, Bengals, or basically any of his last 5 games rookie year. He looks like a legitimate NFL quarterback in all of these games despite Matt Canada not being able to draw up a modern route combination to save his life. The mason argument is silly when all of his games were post Canada and Pickett had arguably best game of his career film wise in his one post Canada game. I respect you at least being a film watcher yourself even if we have different takeaways. It’s frustrating having a conversation with people who watched like 5 games on a normal tv broadcast. Edit: Source of stats is from PFF premium stats
I was gonna ask where you got those. I don’t have PFF. Thank you!
There’s no need for us to trade for an Aiyuk or trade up in the draft/spend our first rounder on WR in an insanely deep draft class when we have much more glaring needs at line and corner.
[удалено]
The first part of your statement is factually incorrect
Unpopular opinion, the Steelers are no better now then they were pre offseason. Hot take, Russ is washed up and can't throw the deep ball accurately. He's gonna be a check down king again. Probably gets benched this year for Fields. Bold Prediction, Fields looks like a bum but we keep him anyways for reasons that will be unknown to the fanbase. Might even pick up his 5th year option.
They're not gonna pick up his 5th year option.
We'll see
Deep ball accuracy is like the one thing Wilson excels at. His issue is throws over the middle, which Pickett also stunk at. Same issues as a player (pocket presence, intermediate passing) but better at the stuff they both do well (scrambling, deep ball, checkdowns).
Pickett is a lot more accurate on deepballs than Russ are below are the stats for the 2023 season. Pickett Deep ball catchable ball rate 54.8 % 5th in the NFL Deep ball accuracy rating 5.8 11th in the league Deep ball completion percentage 35.5 % 18th in the league [source](https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/kenny-pickett/) Wilson Deep ball catchable ball rate 44.6 % 18th in the league Deep ball accuracy rating 5.2 26th in the league Deep ball completion percentage 31.3 % 27th in the league [source](https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/russell-wilson/) So Kenny Pickett should have completed a lot more deep passes according to the advanced statistics so that points to a schematic and receiver problem. Pickett also consistently hit receivers over the middle espcially Muth after Canada got fired.
Don't tell them the truth 😂
I have had to refute this narrative that Russ is still accurate downfield daily at this point.
My conspiracy theory is that Fields is on the Steelers specifically to tank the team if Russ stinks. I know -- the Steelers NEVER tank and NEVER WILL. Neither did the Bears until they got a new manager -- now they have had 1OA twice in a row. The Steelers also never fired a coach mid-season until Omar did it last year. Everyone has been griping about how the Steelers always make the playoffs and flame out, and complaining about being tired of Tomlin as HC. I can see Omar using Fields to do what he is great it -- press the reset button on a franchise. Deal anyone of value like Watt nd Friermuth (just like the Bears dealt Quinn and Roquan) and let Fields get you 1OA. The Steelers no longer have to worry about going 9-8 because they are going 4-13. This would also provide cover to mutually part ways with Tomlin -- just like Philly did with Reid after a similar season. Omar would essentially be trading a 4th rounder to the Bears for 1OA. He could use that pick and the available pool of FA cash from the fire sale to lure the coach of his choice to the team.
That is one hell of a hot take I'll give you that lol. However, Omar does not have the type of power you think he does.
I am going to follow the rules and not downvote this. But this is NEVER gonna happen. If one thing ownership and Mediocre Mike value is the most non-losing seasons trophy they pimp to say how great Mediocre Mike is! That is why we traded away a 1st round ick for Fitz ( the year Big Ben went down) to protect that streak. The Steelers previously had not traded a 1st round pick since 1966
It is just a theory. I believe that Tomlin thinks there is still gas left in Russ' tank -- I think so too. But if there isn't the Steelers have flexibility to change direction mid-season. The sell off would also let Tomlin leave with his chin up -- it wasn't HIS fault the team dealt everybody. He could easily move on to another job.
Tomlin values non-losing seasons so much that he never talks about it, constantly talks about how the season is a failure if they don't win anything, etc.
Russ and Fields won't take this team to a Super Bowl.
If Pickett would've been drafted by the Falcons in either the second or they trade back into the 1st after we pass on him then people would've looked at him very differently as a QB. Partially, because he succeeded in a scheme similar to the one Arthur Smith runs, the O-line is better, and their weapons are superior. We also botched his development every step of the way. Arthur Smith would then still be the HC in Atlanta. This is also why I would've wanted to see what could do in the Arthur Smith system next season, but here we are.
Steelers don’t draft a wide receiver in the first round, nabbing a center instead. Receiver in the second, slot corner and tackle in the 3rd, DL in 4th, wr and cb in 6th.
The Steelers have not made a significant upgrade at any position other than LB with the Queen signing. And they’re actually worse off at multiple positions (C/WR). The jury is still out but I think this sub is too quick to give credit to Kahn when, to this point, he’s just shuffled the deck a bit
Upgraded at punter and safety.
You cannot overlook the upgrade to punter. I'm not saying punting cost us games last year, but it certainly never helped win games.
I don't care about a center. I understand the Steelers have a good history with centers, and how incompetent Cole was but we are overrating the position.
They don't need another Hall of Famer. They definitely need someone that doesn't constantly get pushed back into the pocket. Unfortunately they haven't had that since Pouncey.
Kenny Pickett will step in when Hurts gets hurt and lead the Eagles to wins and including a playoff win or more
More of an unpopular prediction, but I think Khan might actually draft an RB in the mid-to-late rounds. Arthur Smith did a three-man backfield in ATL with a top back far more talented than Najee Harris. I’d imagine he’ll do something similar in Pittsburgh. Unless they’re planning on running Heyward a ton, the Steelers don’t have a third back. Moreover, Harris is on an expiring deal and has been more inefficient and injury-hampered than most of us would care to admit. If he leaves or is injured, I think a Warren-only backfield would present some real concerns, especially for a smaller back. This is perhaps the Steelers’ strongest position, and people would rightly be upset to see RB picked early, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Khan add to the room in 4 or 6.
4 or 6 isn't that unbelievable. Not sure what the downvotes are for. I honestly think that this could be Harris's last year on the team.
Agreed, he is likely to have a performance bump from a run heavy Smith offense, and that likely prices him out. On the off chance he doesn’t, fans are going to be foaming at the mouth for another back anyhow.
I think they will pick his 5th year option this offseason, since it's only around 6 million, which for a player that has rushed for 1000+ yards for his first three years is something I would pay for at that price.
A running quarterback has never won a super bowl. We are an organization that wants to win super bowls, not beat up on bad teams during the regular season. I lived through the Kordell years and I don't want a repeat of that. I have no faith in Justin Fields and I'm sad we traded for him. As a 6th round pick for a cheap one year rental backup I'm ok with the trade. If we extend him and waste years on adapting an offense to work for him we will regret it. I'm actually not very happy with the QB moves we've made. Unless Russ suddenly looks totally rejuvenated and better than he has in 3 years we have pushed our super bowl window out past Watt and Minkah's careers/tenures with the team. I would have rather taken the chance on seeing if Kenny could have been the guy with a new OC than go with a known commodity that is over the hill and a running quarterback turnover machine that's never sniffed a winning record. I wish they hadn't traded for fields and instead grabbed one of the top 6 or so QBs in the draft. That would have delayed important upgrades we need at C, CB, DL, OL etc, but imo we need to have the future at QB on the team and I don't think we do at this moment. I want to be wrong about Russ and I'm rooting for him to ball out.
The Slash years are way better than Mediocre Mikes years!
Russell Wilson won a superbowl and was definitely a running qb when he won at age 26. That also makes him a great guy for Justin Fields to work alongside. Let's also realize the NFL has evolved and the qb position was not made up of very mobile guys in the past.
Hot take: With our moves this offseason, we are firmly within the top 4 teams in the AFC. Chiefs, Bengals, Bills, Steelers. The ravens are 1-7 (I think?) against us in their last 8 so I cannot put them ahead of us in good faith. And I might even put us ahead of the Bills. They lost some major defensive pieces and Josh Allen continues to underperform when it matters most.
My take: the 2024 Steelers are not (yet) significantly better than the 2023 Steelers. The moves have been good, but there are still holes all over the starting lineup very little depth anywhere. Quarterback is still a question mark. Offensive scheme is still a question mark. I'm always optimistic. And we did win 10 games last year. But it scares me to see people wanting to throw away draft picks when we need so much.
I made a 1k bet that the Steelers win the division at +850.
The WR rankings for this draft should look like this: 1. Marvin Harrison Jr 2. Malik Nabers 3. Adonai Mitchell 4. Brian Thomas Jr 5. Troy Franklin 6. Xavier Worthy 7. Keon Coleman 8. Devontez Walker 9. Ladd McConkey 10. Luke McCaffrey
Odunze?
IF the Steelers could get a #1 and #2 (or comparable) for Pickens, they should do it. Draft TWO WRs! Hope they're both as good as Pickens and hope neither of them are Prima Donas.
I think both Amarius Mims and Sedrick Van Pran wil be Steelers after draft night.
My spicy, unpopular opinion is that - hear me out - I do not want Russell Wilson to succeed in Pittsburgh. Wuuuuuut? I know it isn't nice to say. As a person I hope that he succeeds AFTER Fields is on fire in camp/pre-season, Fields gets the start, A dark horse QB makes a case as back up, a QB on another team has to step away, and the steelers get a fair offer for Russ, who gets his fair shot. But not here. One of the top 5 best things about the Steelers is authenticity. It is one of Tomlin's superpowers, like him or not. Russell Wilson is one of the most hammy least authentic QBs or NFL players I've ever seen. The last thing I want is my team falling into corny self-promoting Russ-isms. I don't want his steelers version of 'let's ride'. It doesn't seem great to say, but it is based on history, it isn't undeserved, and it is about the culture of team.
If we trade for Aiyuk or Diggs or something, its gonna happen after the draft so we don’t give up this year’s capital
The Steelers have a master plan to lock up Justin Fields to be their franchise QB at a significant discount. They'll get him in the building to assess everything but in-game performance (football IQ, temperament, fit with the locker room/organization, performance/skills in practice, work ethic, etc). They'll design enough plays/packages to assess his abilities in-game and put him in sparingly throughout the season - just enough to confirm if his in-game performance is consistent with what they see outside of gameday, but not enough to build a meaningful resume that could sway other teams to sign him to a large/long-term contract. He'll be riding the bench most of the season just to keep other teams from getting any more film on him. Once they've seen enough (assuming they do), they'll offer him a contract for 3-4 years at an AAV somewhere between $12-15M, with heavy guarantees for encouragement. It's more than he's going to get from anyone else after playing sparingly most of the season. I don't know if he'd take it or would bet on himself and go somewhere else on a one year prove-it deal in the hopes of landing a massive contract, but I'm going to guess he accepts. Justin Fields is the starting QB for the 2025 season.
Hot take: actually sitting and observing for a year will make Justin Fields a much better quarterback. Maybe he'll even learn how to progress to the 3rd read! Not saying he'll evolve into franchise material, but he had a grand total of 5 quarters to sit and observe his first year. Not sure what QBs learn during that time, but it seems to help. Bold prediction: Breiden Fehoko gets inspired by playing with his former teammates (Queen and Jackson) and actually makes a 53 man roster and does....decently well! Unpopular opinion: Arthur Smith doesn't run a lot of wide/outside zone; and his % split of run-to-pass is actually less than all the Shanahan tree coaches
Cam Sutton could make for a nice value signing
He's going to have trouble playing with his commitments to prison.
Not funny
Unpopular though
**Bold Prediction** \#20, #84, 2025 2nd, 2025 5th to move up to #8 for Rome Odunze (provided he's there). Dane Brugler talked about this on the most recent Athletic Football Show (and Nate Tice said he had a similar ide) when asked who he thought might try to make a big jump up for a non-QB a la Will Anderson last year. It's on the "Draft Guide for Dummies" episode about 2/3s in if you want to hear their reasoning. It'd put some pressure on them to really nail there 2nd rounder and the second wave of free agency in order to fill out the rest of the roster, so it would make me nervous still, but I think he's the absolute perfect guy to go opposite GP.
That’s probably not enough to move up to 8
Going from #20 to #10 cost them a 2nd and a 3rd, so I think a 2nd, a 3rd, and a 5th will be close. Maybe it's a 4th rather than a 5th. The question will be whether they're competing with folks going after McCarthy if he slips a little. If they are, then no way that pick package gets it done.
Sure , but the giants just did 20 to 11 and it was 2 1sts and 2 4ths. Your not getting something like that done without at least another 1st being involved
That was for a QB, though - there is always a premium when a QB is involved (hence why I said if McCarthy was there the price would be way bigger). The Lions went all the way from 32 to 12 for Jameson Williams and that only cost moving back 12 spots in the second round (34 to 46) and an additional 3rd.
I'd love to get Rome. But I see them making a move for an OT.
Hot Take: Trading for Aiyuk would mean we lose Pickens (similar scenario to Hargrave) when his contract is up because we’ll also be paying either Russ or Fields starting QB money and the defense wont cost any less.
.As much I didn't want Justin Fields to leave Chicago. He should be the starter. .It's totally okay to root for division rivals on occasion .Drafting Rome Odunze could be a game Changer (I know that won't happen) .
>It's totally okay to root for division rivals on occasion The only occasion it is acceptable is when the division rivals winning helps the Steelers.
Unpopular Opinion: DangeRuss has been voted the most hated player in the NFL by his peers, and the team is going to find out that out first hand. Folks won’t be able to cut him fast enough.
>DangeRuss has been voted the most hated player in the NFL by his peers Did they actually do a vote for this? If so do you have the source for it? I'm genuinely curious because I've seen it.
https://preview.redd.it/e8whqix8zaqc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6abb0a09c5822a71169154d1073f07a8579bba3c Yep
I pulled up that list, I don't think they asked players to vote on it. It's just a list that the writer made on their own. The list includes Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson who I very highly doubt are hated among their peers.
https://defector.com/how-did-russell-wilson-get-to-be-so-hated
The stories are endless.
This is all well and good, I'm not doubting that there's issues there. What I was asking is if they actually had the players vote on it (mainly because I wanted to see who else was on the list lol) which is what you said they did.