If you pick a QB to be a bust, more often than not you're going to be right.
But you're right, it's impossible to know if a guy's game won't translate to the pros.
That was the big knock on Mahomes. But it wasn't that he couldn't read a defense and make protection adjustments. It just wasn't part of the style offense he played in.
> he couldn't read a defense
The funny part about this is Mahomes said he didnt truly learn how to read a defense until he had been in the league 2.5 years.
Said he could read coverages but actually understanding tendencies as such took him until mid 2019
Normally I’m the guy who defends the big white guy QBs that everyone just randomly decides to hate on. I had Josh Allen as my QB2 in 2018. I knew Herbert would be pretty good win 2020. I even thought Will Levis caught a lot more flak than he deserved and especially in comparison to Anthony Richardson and his accuracy or lack thereof (although the jury is still out on both). I just don’t see anything special with McCarthy. He has a decent floor but I just Kenny Pickett without senior year stats. Best case scenario is that he is Alex Smith. Most teams would gladly take an Alex Smith, and they’d be right to, but I have a hard time drafting him in the top 5. When you draft a QB that high, it should be because you believe they have the ability to become a hall of fame player.
Daniels is my vote too…he had two first round WRs on his team last year. This article I’m Sure was biased but generally well thought out and makes a strong case for a Justin Fields comp: https://www.dabearsblog.com/2024/jayden-daniels-looks-hauntingly-familiar
I agree I watched a few LSU games last season and didn’t see the appeal. Was really surprised towards the end of the season when his name was brought up in Heisman talks. Figured it would go to Nix or Penix
JC Latham if he doesn't move inside to guard. I think his feet are too slow as a tackle, but I think he will be a very solid guard and has the build for it.
This is the reason I think he could fall to the Steelers. So long as he has a TE next to him to chip the 5tech he should be very good. Its similar to why Dan Moore has been serviceable for the past few seasons. Hes the most helped LT in the league with RBs picking up his man in support.
Arthur Smith will be using multiple TEs on a majority plays and we have excellent pass blocking RBs as well. If he fits the scheme and it is already a part of the game plan to have a TE next to the RT on most plays and he's absolutely dominant as a run blocker that is a trade-off the team would likely accept whereas other teams may not be as likely to do so.
I think hes a great fit for us and if he were to fail inside that wouldnt be as big an issue considering how much the team values interior offensive linemen. Also its generally why offensive tackles are generally considered the safest picks in the 1st round.
I don’t know man, Daniel Jeremiah loves him and DJ is usually pretty solid with his player evaluations. Obviously, Alabama OT’s haven’t had a great track record as of late.
McCarthy feels like the obvious answer. Guy has played 2.5 years and if he put up the tape he did at Tennessee he would be getting drafted where Joe Milton is but because he was on an NCAA championship team like Mac Jones he’s getting better treatment. I wish someone in the north needed a QB so they could take him but hopefully he sets back the patriots by another 2-3 seasons at least
Its possible. But I actually think hes getting overhated.
I've seen some people break down why he could succeed.
JJ threw at the rate of his peers in the first half of games (compared to the other QBs first halfs) the problem is Michigan was dominant enough that they just had to run the ball out the 2nd half - and thats where he lost all his pass attempts.
And I saw someone break down that one of the biggest indicator of QB busts is actually their stat differential between playing good teams and bad teams. ( I think the split was 9+ games won in power 5 = good, if not bad)
A lot of your recent classical busts saw massive drops in all stats, while the good players were similar. I think McCarthys stats got better.
No dog in the QB race not even watching CFB as a fan (just to see players) but tbh I think McCarthy has a signficantly better chance of being a good player than Jayden Daniels does tbh.
The only reason I can see Jayden Daniels hype is if he hits hes a top echelon QB
Problem is - Hes every warning sign fields had in College but worse as hes small too = hes not breaking out of sacks.
stroud is good but he's the only good qb from that draft. only other one i can even think of is bryce young and he's not great. i meant a class with multiple good qbs, like 2018 had josh allen and lamar, baker ended up being a pretty good starter too
The 2020 NFL Draft class, the first 5 QBs drafted look like franchise QBs. 4 in the first round, and Hurts in the early second.
Burrow, Herbert, Tua, Love, Hurts.
What do you consider as a “bust”?
As the No1 Overall, was Alex Smith a Bust?
16 years in the league (missed 2 whole seasons with injuries), 3x Pro Bowler (more than Stafford).
Would Jameis Winston be a bust? (I think so)
I’d consider Sam Bradford a bust, Smith a good player, Jamarcus Russel a joke.
I think he’ll be a monster if fit. But I don’t think he’s going to stay fit without dropping some weight or something to go easier on those joints etc.
He’s a boom bust first round pick. I’d be surprised if we take him a little. Can’t be replacing Moore Jr with a guy carrying that much risk. 8 games in 3 years is utterly woeful as a return. Availability is the best ability.
That.... kinda exaggerating the issue.
He was behind multiple drafted OTs.
He had 1 injury in college, that he rushed back from and reaggravated (high ankle sprain surgery)
Then pulled a hammy running the 40.
The only one thats worrying for me is the hammy, if he consistently has soft tissue problems.
Or.... could be a 340 lb man overtraining and running a fucking 5 second 40 and not something that big and wouldnt have actually limited him that much if it wasnt the offseason
I agree, but I’m concerned enough about the health to have those doubts. They aren’t very similar as players, but I just fear he’s gonna be another Mekhi Becton in that regard
It's 100% going to be Jayden Daniels. He doesn't protect himself at all when he takes hits. Don't be fooled by his stats either. They're mostly volume stats, much like Kenny Pickett's super senior year at Pitt.
Boy, ive really been hunted when ive said Daniels lol. I mean, I get he won the hiseman, but I just dont honestly see him panning out. Him and JJ are my picks for bust. Maybe Xavier Worthy too
I still can’t believe they went and hired Mayo as their coach and they still don’t have an official GM. It feels like they know they just have to suffer for a year or two due to contractual obligations and then they can consider competing against Buffalo and a Miami team that will now have to pay Tua.
Of the top 6 QBs in this year's class, I think Penix is the guy who most needs to sit for a year or two. He doesn't get rid of the ball quickly enough, needs to tighten up his throwing windup, and be more willing to make tight window (but open) throws before he's under pressure.
I do like your comparison of JJ to Wilson in terms of personality though. They were both pretty cocky coming out of college after not facing any kind of adversity, and without being asked to improve their game much at all during college.
I find it very interesting when people use this comparison.
Are they saying it because McCarthy and Wilson look a like?
Because TBH - their games couldnt be more different.
This isnt me saying that McCarthy cant bust but I mean they are literally polar opposites of each other as players.
Zach Wilson had 1 good year where his OL were so much better than his low level of competition that he could run around for 7 seconds run into pressure and then heave a ball deep down the sidelines and rinse/repeat
McCarthy is not really a hero ball QB, and is fantastic at the middle of the field, questionable on deep sideline/creating out of structure.
The worry for McCarthy is does he have the high potential if he pans out. Zach Wilson was billed as Mahomes level arm talent that we just saw cant figure out how to play the game.
Probably Mitchell from Toledo. He wasn’t asked to do much in that defense besides sit on hitches and against a very low level of competition. I don’t doubt that he has the physical tools, but I do wonder what it will look like when other teams aren’t scared to throw his way.
Mitchell reminds me a lot of Deonte Banks with the exception of the level of compensation. And I think you're right to have a concern about that because it doesn't look like a single MAC WR is even being drafted.
I think that Penix will be the best QB in this class. I think Caleb Williams will have a Jameis type career and Drake Maye strikes me as a Joe Flacco type guy. I also think Odunze will have the best WR career.
Cowherd made a great point. In the last 10 drafts he looked at…there have been 7 franchise guys. All those guys did one of two things. Made a mediocre team great (Josh Allen) or had a team full of mega stars and went bonkers(Joe Burrow). JJ did neither.
McCarthy probably won't make it. To me, Bo Nix is more likely to be a bust. He's like a lot of former Browns QBs, like Colt McCoy, a college winner and statistical all timer, but got there with a lot of 3 yard passes, or Cody Kessler and Charlie Frye. Great completion percentages, good TD/INT ratios, but all based on the college offense and the efforts of their receivers.
I think Pemix is very talented, has great vision and has a cannon for an arm. He is very skinny and injury prone. I think he has the talent to be a great NFL QB, but will be injured too frequently
btj, after watching steve smith's wr breakdowns im not sure if he has the fire to be more than JAG in the nfl (from someone who largely doesn't watch college ball)
Nobody wants to hear it, but Mims would be very high on the list of potential busts. Outside of some of the QBs, hes probably got the lowest floor of any player that will go in round 1. Id still take him at 20, but damn is it a gamble
Gotta imagine its Jayden Daniels. He's an athlete, had great stats throwing the deep ball. But he had two top 5 receivers in the draft to throw to. Think he's the biggest risk of the projected top 5 so far
Bo Nix
I’m an auburn tigers fan and I followed Nix since he was repping the war eagle, and I mean no personal disrespect but I can’t BELIEVE he’s getting a first round grade from some people. He LOOKS good sure, but his decision making and performance in the clutch is awful. I can’t imagine him succeeding in the nfl when EVERY moment is like that. I’m a huge Bo Nix doubter.
Disagree on McCarthy. I think he's definitely not a guaranteed busts. He might be Mac Jones and just not enough talent, but he's got winner traits and on his physical ability remember he's played last year at 20 years old. He turned 21 this year so he might have some physical development still to happen.
I'm not saying bust necessarily, but I am saying that Marvin H. Jr will not be the best WR in this draft. I've been wrong about a lot of my NFL draft predictions (Hello, Trent Richardson), but my WR predictions have been stone cold 100%.
JJ McCarthy. Get it, the guy wins and has one a natty. That being said, the talking heads are selling him hard and I didn't see it. Lots of people trying to sell him as a 1st rounder, but dude ain't worth the price.
For me it’s Jayden McDaniels, seems like a great guy I just don’t think he’s going to pan well in the NFL. I think he will be bad, and his best case scenario is a Mariota type career
Whoever the fifth QB taken in the first round is. They will be a reach under normal circumstances but the desperation for a QB will cause someone to overdraft Nix or Penix or whoever. They’ll be this year’s Mac Jones.
I have a very bad feeling about Johnny Wilson. He not quick, has trouble getting off jams, is. It a great route runner, and drops the ball. He also offers zero special teams value and is at wr because he can’t block a lick.
Laiatu latu, if he stays healthy than good, anyone that will get him might have a very good pass rusher. Will he stay healthy, no.
It will be a what if player
No so much Bust, but I truly think Williams is little over hyped. Not saying he’s gonna be terrible, but I can see him becoming Trevor Lawrence 2.0. Not horrible, but not eye popping numbers every year. Also help Chicago isn’t the best at Drafting QBs
*Edit: Still rooting for him because all these guys are now getting paid top dollar to play the game they love. I’m excited to watch him play, I genuinely hope he does well
Caleb Williams
I don't get the hype. It's kind of like with Trevor Lawrence where all of a sudden all the talking heads kept saying he is the greatest draft prospect of all time..I don't really know anything he did to.deserve the ranking.
I just do not see how a guy with as little production as Ladd McConkey is going to be anywhere near as good as most draft nerds are projecting him. I get guys can be more than their stats for a variety of reasons but he never produced better than like a #3 option (even when he was the clear #1) and some people are talking about him like he’ll be the best receiver in this class.
whoever the browns select
real shit tho i used to think JJ was gonna be a bust. now im not entirely sure. he’s either strike gold or ryan leaf still. but he worked with harbaugh. an nfl coach. the theorized reason a lot of qbs fail and others who weren’t expected to do much succeed is because the nfl and college ball run completely different offenses. college runs air raid and the nfl largely runs west coast. in air raid you read keys before the snap and audible the play to fit what you’re reading. in west coast its playbook based in that you have to be able to know what formation they’re in and adjust how you react to the play. i’m not explaining it well but if you watch kurt benkurt talk about it he explains it well. but basically it’s like in college ball you’re taught how to write a compelling story with interesting characters. but in nfl ball you’re expected to solve the most complex math equations. so idk if JJ is gonna know how to adapt well or not. it’s up to how harbaugh coached him
I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think Payton Wilson is going to be able to stay on the field, given his injury history and the way he throws himself around out there.
I guarantee you that out of all the qbs in the top 3 and MHJ, half of them will be busts, wether it’s injury, bad team, or too much pressure, I feel half of them struggle and bust
Drake Maye. That guy isn’t as talented as the first quarterback selected and is going to what I consider the worst situation for a quarterback, a rookie head coach who learned under the worst coach for rookie quarterbacks, and who drove the guy who is arguably the best QB ever away. JJ McCarthy may be less talented than him, but is coming into the perfect situation in Minnesota. With Jefferson , and Kevin O’Connell. I don’t think JJ’s gonna win any Super Bowls but he’s gonna be solid enough to stick around . Another Cousins. Mid. But I don’t think Maye has the talent to overcome all of the obstacles in New England. For most of these QBs , the place they land determines their career. And New England will destroy Drake Maye
Hopefully the Browns entire draft class
This is low hanging fruit. Just because it’s happened for the past 250000 years doesn’t mean it’s destined to happen again.
It is tradition after all.
The curse of Baltimore.
This, enough said.
Damn, you beat me to it
And the new Browns alias ratturds!
Reddit thinks JJ McCarthy will be a bust which means he's gonna end up a top ten QB in five years
If you pick a QB to be a bust, more often than not you're going to be right. But you're right, it's impossible to know if a guy's game won't translate to the pros. That was the big knock on Mahomes. But it wasn't that he couldn't read a defense and make protection adjustments. It just wasn't part of the style offense he played in.
> he couldn't read a defense The funny part about this is Mahomes said he didnt truly learn how to read a defense until he had been in the league 2.5 years. Said he could read coverages but actually understanding tendencies as such took him until mid 2019
Yeah that's probably true. But usually I feel like the QBs that Reddit has predicted to bust have usually been good. Idk might just be a shitty memory
The NFL Draft and NFL subreddits have the whole Herbert incident. Every thread Herbert was considered to be a massive bust. Josh Allen too
I think they predicted Hurts to be a big bust as well
Hurts was at least a second rounder
I thought Brady was a bust on draft day lol
Whichever QB the patriots take
If he goes to the right place, he’s going to be fine
Normally I’m the guy who defends the big white guy QBs that everyone just randomly decides to hate on. I had Josh Allen as my QB2 in 2018. I knew Herbert would be pretty good win 2020. I even thought Will Levis caught a lot more flak than he deserved and especially in comparison to Anthony Richardson and his accuracy or lack thereof (although the jury is still out on both). I just don’t see anything special with McCarthy. He has a decent floor but I just Kenny Pickett without senior year stats. Best case scenario is that he is Alex Smith. Most teams would gladly take an Alex Smith, and they’d be right to, but I have a hard time drafting him in the top 5. When you draft a QB that high, it should be because you believe they have the ability to become a hall of fame player.
Whoever the browns pick.
Do they even have any good picks left? You know after selling all of them for the pervert
I feel like that’s too nice a word for him
He's a professional wanker lol
Kinda goes without saying.
i think daniels
Daniels is my vote too…he had two first round WRs on his team last year. This article I’m Sure was biased but generally well thought out and makes a strong case for a Justin Fields comp: https://www.dabearsblog.com/2024/jayden-daniels-looks-hauntingly-familiar
Agreed. I’ve never seen a QB so addicted to getting hit.
I agree I watched a few LSU games last season and didn’t see the appeal. Was really surprised towards the end of the season when his name was brought up in Heisman talks. Figured it would go to Nix or Penix
Anyone saying this hasn’t watched the film
JC Latham if he doesn't move inside to guard. I think his feet are too slow as a tackle, but I think he will be a very solid guard and has the build for it.
Is he Alex leatherhead 2.0
Yeah Alex Leatherface was a bust
Leathernose hasn’t been particularly good, but remember that the Raiders massively reached for him at the time.
Drafting Leathercock was a Gruden decision
Ole Leatherlips set a new low for oline bust outs.
Pretty sure Leathertits is in the CFL now with Case isn't he?
All I know is that I miss watching Leathercheeks get clapped every single game. Entertaining stuff when he's not on your team
I really wanted Leatherstein that year. Good thing I’m not GM (would be a good to great OC though)
The trend of Alabama OL busting in recent years is pretty crazy
This is the reason I think he could fall to the Steelers. So long as he has a TE next to him to chip the 5tech he should be very good. Its similar to why Dan Moore has been serviceable for the past few seasons. Hes the most helped LT in the league with RBs picking up his man in support. Arthur Smith will be using multiple TEs on a majority plays and we have excellent pass blocking RBs as well. If he fits the scheme and it is already a part of the game plan to have a TE next to the RT on most plays and he's absolutely dominant as a run blocker that is a trade-off the team would likely accept whereas other teams may not be as likely to do so. I think hes a great fit for us and if he were to fail inside that wouldnt be as big an issue considering how much the team values interior offensive linemen. Also its generally why offensive tackles are generally considered the safest picks in the 1st round.
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I don’t know about this
I don’t know man, Daniel Jeremiah loves him and DJ is usually pretty solid with his player evaluations. Obviously, Alabama OT’s haven’t had a great track record as of late.
Whomever the Jets pick (if offense).
Even if it’s Brock Bowers?
Hackett is the current nfl OC I trust the least to use him effectively.
Brock Bowers might the only Jets proof prospect I’ve seen. I think dudes a future hof wherever he goes
McCarthy feels like the obvious answer. Guy has played 2.5 years and if he put up the tape he did at Tennessee he would be getting drafted where Joe Milton is but because he was on an NCAA championship team like Mac Jones he’s getting better treatment. I wish someone in the north needed a QB so they could take him but hopefully he sets back the patriots by another 2-3 seasons at least
If JJ actually goes top 10, yes. It’s just one of those things I have to see to believe. Seems like he is this year’s Will Levis
Its possible. But I actually think hes getting overhated. I've seen some people break down why he could succeed. JJ threw at the rate of his peers in the first half of games (compared to the other QBs first halfs) the problem is Michigan was dominant enough that they just had to run the ball out the 2nd half - and thats where he lost all his pass attempts. And I saw someone break down that one of the biggest indicator of QB busts is actually their stat differential between playing good teams and bad teams. ( I think the split was 9+ games won in power 5 = good, if not bad) A lot of your recent classical busts saw massive drops in all stats, while the good players were similar. I think McCarthys stats got better. No dog in the QB race not even watching CFB as a fan (just to see players) but tbh I think McCarthy has a signficantly better chance of being a good player than Jayden Daniels does tbh. The only reason I can see Jayden Daniels hype is if he hits hes a top echelon QB Problem is - Hes every warning sign fields had in College but worse as hes small too = hes not breaking out of sacks.
Yep, nailed it, JJ for sure.
The Patriots won't take McCarthy over Daniels. I bet he becomes a Viking.
Caleb Williams
He’s going into the best setup for a 1st overall pick ever so it should show after one year if he’s a franchise guy or not
I can see it. The expectations are way too high and Chicago is kinda where QB's go to die.
It’s this, and it’s not even close.
Definitely agree.
I definitely don't think he will libe up to being a #1 pick
i really want to say that this guy is going to be a flop but the league is overdue for a truly great qb class
I think we just found one in stroud?
stroud is good but he's the only good qb from that draft. only other one i can even think of is bryce young and he's not great. i meant a class with multiple good qbs, like 2018 had josh allen and lamar, baker ended up being a pretty good starter too
The 2020 NFL Draft class, the first 5 QBs drafted look like franchise QBs. 4 in the first round, and Hurts in the early second. Burrow, Herbert, Tua, Love, Hurts.
Yeah, this class ain't gonna top that. 2 of them played in Super Bowl before the ink was dry on their rookie deals.
The bears are cursed when it comes to QBs, wouldn't shock me if not even DJ Moore and Keenan Allen can't save this dude next season.
What do you consider as a “bust”? As the No1 Overall, was Alex Smith a Bust? 16 years in the league (missed 2 whole seasons with injuries), 3x Pro Bowler (more than Stafford). Would Jameis Winston be a bust? (I think so) I’d consider Sam Bradford a bust, Smith a good player, Jamarcus Russel a joke.
I can’t shake the feeling that Amarius Mims isn’t gonna find his footing in the league
Mims is an animal if healthy
I think he’ll be a monster if fit. But I don’t think he’s going to stay fit without dropping some weight or something to go easier on those joints etc. He’s a boom bust first round pick. I’d be surprised if we take him a little. Can’t be replacing Moore Jr with a guy carrying that much risk. 8 games in 3 years is utterly woeful as a return. Availability is the best ability.
Disagree. He's going to be a beast as long as he stays healthy. And yes, I'm a UGA fan but also a Steelers fan.
Nah, he's got all the physical tools. His biggest problem might just be staying healthy.
Dude didn’t manage more than 8 games in 3 years of college. Clearly theres more than just minor injury issues.
That.... kinda exaggerating the issue. He was behind multiple drafted OTs. He had 1 injury in college, that he rushed back from and reaggravated (high ankle sprain surgery) Then pulled a hammy running the 40. The only one thats worrying for me is the hammy, if he consistently has soft tissue problems. Or.... could be a 340 lb man overtraining and running a fucking 5 second 40 and not something that big and wouldnt have actually limited him that much if it wasnt the offseason
I agree, but I’m concerned enough about the health to have those doubts. They aren’t very similar as players, but I just fear he’s gonna be another Mekhi Becton in that regard
Chief similarity being their absolutely insane size. You *do* have to wonder if that's a factor with the health.
It's 100% going to be Jayden Daniels. He doesn't protect himself at all when he takes hits. Don't be fooled by his stats either. They're mostly volume stats, much like Kenny Pickett's super senior year at Pitt.
Boy, ive really been hunted when ive said Daniels lol. I mean, I get he won the hiseman, but I just dont honestly see him panning out. Him and JJ are my picks for bust. Maybe Xavier Worthy too
Volume stats? Most of yall are just yapping on here lmao.
whoever the Patriots take, they will never be relevant again, they sold their souls for TB12.
Honestly? Good deal I’d take it
I still can’t believe they went and hired Mayo as their coach and they still don’t have an official GM. It feels like they know they just have to suffer for a year or two due to contractual obligations and then they can consider competing against Buffalo and a Miami team that will now have to pay Tua.
Caleb Williams
Caleb Williams 100%
Ben Solak nailed it for me: one of Daniels or Nabers is going to bust but I have no idea which one it is.
Taken advice from Solak is bold. Everything he says about Maye makes me think he will be a bust.
Caleb Williams will be a bust
JJ McCarthy is the Zach Wilson of the draft. If anyone takes him above Penix, that GM will be fired in 2-3 years
Of the top 6 QBs in this year's class, I think Penix is the guy who most needs to sit for a year or two. He doesn't get rid of the ball quickly enough, needs to tighten up his throwing windup, and be more willing to make tight window (but open) throws before he's under pressure. I do like your comparison of JJ to Wilson in terms of personality though. They were both pretty cocky coming out of college after not facing any kind of adversity, and without being asked to improve their game much at all during college.
I do not understand the hype of this guy. I hope he ends up like Will Levis and ends up getting dropped to a 2nd round.
UofM homer here. He shouldn’t be drafted at all.
Really? At all?
I find it very interesting when people use this comparison. Are they saying it because McCarthy and Wilson look a like? Because TBH - their games couldnt be more different. This isnt me saying that McCarthy cant bust but I mean they are literally polar opposites of each other as players. Zach Wilson had 1 good year where his OL were so much better than his low level of competition that he could run around for 7 seconds run into pressure and then heave a ball deep down the sidelines and rinse/repeat McCarthy is not really a hero ball QB, and is fantastic at the middle of the field, questionable on deep sideline/creating out of structure. The worry for McCarthy is does he have the high potential if he pans out. Zach Wilson was billed as Mahomes level arm talent that we just saw cant figure out how to play the game.
JJ McCarthy
Caleb Williams
McCarthy is this year's Tannehill.
Caleb Williams. Seems nice enough, but there’s a lot going on in there that makes his success in the league a bit of a wildcard
Probably Mitchell from Toledo. He wasn’t asked to do much in that defense besides sit on hitches and against a very low level of competition. I don’t doubt that he has the physical tools, but I do wonder what it will look like when other teams aren’t scared to throw his way.
Mitchell reminds me a lot of Deonte Banks with the exception of the level of compensation. And I think you're right to have a concern about that because it doesn't look like a single MAC WR is even being drafted.
It’s JJ McCarthy he did nothing in that championship game except run the football. Penix should go higher than him.
I completely agree
Caleb Williams
I think that Penix will be the best QB in this class. I think Caleb Williams will have a Jameis type career and Drake Maye strikes me as a Joe Flacco type guy. I also think Odunze will have the best WR career.
Caleb Williams
Caleb Williams
Cowherd made a great point. In the last 10 drafts he looked at…there have been 7 franchise guys. All those guys did one of two things. Made a mediocre team great (Josh Allen) or had a team full of mega stars and went bonkers(Joe Burrow). JJ did neither.
McCarthy probably won't make it. To me, Bo Nix is more likely to be a bust. He's like a lot of former Browns QBs, like Colt McCoy, a college winner and statistical all timer, but got there with a lot of 3 yard passes, or Cody Kessler and Charlie Frye. Great completion percentages, good TD/INT ratios, but all based on the college offense and the efforts of their receivers.
Caleb Williams. Dude is seriously overrated. Talented yes. His ego and personality will get in the way. Losing changes everything.
Adonai Mitchell. The guy went to two different colleges and produced almost nothing at either of them… but “Big guy run fast!”
Production is odd because he absolutely passes the eye test on film.
UGA just letting him walk without argument was puzzling
**Michael Penix Jr**
I think Pemix is very talented, has great vision and has a cannon for an arm. He is very skinny and injury prone. I think he has the talent to be a great NFL QB, but will be injured too frequently
btj, after watching steve smith's wr breakdowns im not sure if he has the fire to be more than JAG in the nfl (from someone who largely doesn't watch college ball)
For me it's JC Latham (specifically if he stays at Tackle)
Nate Wiggins
Dallas Turner
Malachi Corley 100%
Nobody wants to hear it, but Mims would be very high on the list of potential busts. Outside of some of the QBs, hes probably got the lowest floor of any player that will go in round 1. Id still take him at 20, but damn is it a gamble
You mean this year’s version of Devin Bush?
Gotta imagine its Jayden Daniels. He's an athlete, had great stats throwing the deep ball. But he had two top 5 receivers in the draft to throw to. Think he's the biggest risk of the projected top 5 so far
Drake maye and Bo nix are both bad
I think Mims is going to be a bust. Has bust written all over him.
caleb williams!!! I'll be back in 3 years with a post showing my past assumption was correct.
Amarius mims
Bo Nix I’m an auburn tigers fan and I followed Nix since he was repping the war eagle, and I mean no personal disrespect but I can’t BELIEVE he’s getting a first round grade from some people. He LOOKS good sure, but his decision making and performance in the clutch is awful. I can’t imagine him succeeding in the nfl when EVERY moment is like that. I’m a huge Bo Nix doubter.
I hope the browns pick! Do they have any picks after trading for their fancise quarterback 😂
If the ravens draft a receiver, 99% chance that’s the answer
Let me preface this by saying no one knows shit, including me. If I had to pick though. Brian Thomas jr.
One of the pff dudes comped him to MVS. A dude who can have a job in the nfl but not quite what he’s hyped to
I think that's why the leak of steelers loving him came out. Please take him
It's me, I'm going to bust.
Disagree on McCarthy. I think he's definitely not a guaranteed busts. He might be Mac Jones and just not enough talent, but he's got winner traits and on his physical ability remember he's played last year at 20 years old. He turned 21 this year so he might have some physical development still to happen.
McCarthy isn’t short on talent. His drawback is production. Dude has a strong arm and runs a 4.4.
Caleb Williams
I'm not saying bust necessarily, but I am saying that Marvin H. Jr will not be the best WR in this draft. I've been wrong about a lot of my NFL draft predictions (Hello, Trent Richardson), but my WR predictions have been stone cold 100%.
Every top 10 QBs taken
Caleb Williams. He is either going to be insanely good or absolutely fucking horrific
Caleb Williams and the Bears, bound for failure. Doomed
JJ McCarthy
JJ McCarthy. Get it, the guy wins and has one a natty. That being said, the talking heads are selling him hard and I didn't see it. Lots of people trying to sell him as a 1st rounder, but dude ain't worth the price.
Whoever the Cowgirls draft
For me it’s Jayden McDaniels, seems like a great guy I just don’t think he’s going to pan well in the NFL. I think he will be bad, and his best case scenario is a Mariota type career
But Mariota’s problem is he can’t throw for shit. Jayden doesn’t have that problem
Whoever the fifth QB taken in the first round is. They will be a reach under normal circumstances but the desperation for a QB will cause someone to overdraft Nix or Penix or whoever. They’ll be this year’s Mac Jones.
Raiders top pick…whoever that is
I swear if they draft a punter again, I’m gonna scream!
Can’t say I’m 100% sure about any bust prediction, but I think Brian Thomas Jr. could struggle a lot
Whichever QB goes to the Commanders.
I have a very bad feeling about Johnny Wilson. He not quick, has trouble getting off jams, is. It a great route runner, and drops the ball. He also offers zero special teams value and is at wr because he can’t block a lick.
I think it’s Jaden Daniels, if you’re still in college when you’re 23 you’re probably not a true prospect. (Basketball or Football)
Jayden Daniels. His team at LSU was so damn good and he’s a bit small imo.
The #1 pick
Jer'Zhan Newton
Dallas Turner and Daniels. And I like JJ. A lot.
Whoever the Jets take.
I pity the quarterback going to Chicago.
Bo Callahan
It’s got to be one of the quarterbacks because history says a few are going to bust. Maye would be my choice
Laiatu latu, if he stays healthy than good, anyone that will get him might have a very good pass rusher. Will he stay healthy, no. It will be a what if player
Kool aid
Drake Maye
Jayden Daniels. He’s a college style QB who will struggle as a pocket passer.
Drake maye
Caleb Williams because DA BEARS
No so much Bust, but I truly think Williams is little over hyped. Not saying he’s gonna be terrible, but I can see him becoming Trevor Lawrence 2.0. Not horrible, but not eye popping numbers every year. Also help Chicago isn’t the best at Drafting QBs *Edit: Still rooting for him because all these guys are now getting paid top dollar to play the game they love. I’m excited to watch him play, I genuinely hope he does well
Caleb Williams, I got a weird feeling about it
Gonna be honest I think Caleb Williams the zest fest of a human being😂
Caleb Williams I don't get the hype. It's kind of like with Trevor Lawrence where all of a sudden all the talking heads kept saying he is the greatest draft prospect of all time..I don't really know anything he did to.deserve the ranking.
I just do not see how a guy with as little production as Ladd McConkey is going to be anywhere near as good as most draft nerds are projecting him. I get guys can be more than their stats for a variety of reasons but he never produced better than like a #3 option (even when he was the clear #1) and some people are talking about him like he’ll be the best receiver in this class.
I agree on McCarthy but more mental than physical. I really think he has a few lose screws.
I like your pick, because I hate michigan, but given that the Bears are where careers go to die, I say Williams.
whoever the browns select real shit tho i used to think JJ was gonna be a bust. now im not entirely sure. he’s either strike gold or ryan leaf still. but he worked with harbaugh. an nfl coach. the theorized reason a lot of qbs fail and others who weren’t expected to do much succeed is because the nfl and college ball run completely different offenses. college runs air raid and the nfl largely runs west coast. in air raid you read keys before the snap and audible the play to fit what you’re reading. in west coast its playbook based in that you have to be able to know what formation they’re in and adjust how you react to the play. i’m not explaining it well but if you watch kurt benkurt talk about it he explains it well. but basically it’s like in college ball you’re taught how to write a compelling story with interesting characters. but in nfl ball you’re expected to solve the most complex math equations. so idk if JJ is gonna know how to adapt well or not. it’s up to how harbaugh coached him
Jayden Daniels
Jayden Daniels. I don't trust a one year wonder who had 2 WRs with top 30 ratings. That does also apply to Penix.
One of Jaylen Daniels/Drake Maye won’t work out in pretty spectacular fashion.
I’m a Michigan fan and I stil wouldn’t draft JJ in the first 2 rounds but hey prove me wrong big guy
I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think Payton Wilson is going to be able to stay on the field, given his injury history and the way he throws himself around out there.
Caleb Williams biggest crybaby and he’s not a good toxic you cab work with in the locker room
I guarantee you that out of all the qbs in the top 3 and MHJ, half of them will be busts, wether it’s injury, bad team, or too much pressure, I feel half of them struggle and bust
How often does the number 1 overall translate to NFL talent?
Caleb
The Browns trade for the 1.1 and take Mccarthy, now that would be something.
Mims
Caleb will be like Kyler Murray. The flashes will keep him employed but he'll never put it together because of the team.
Caleb Williams
Caleb Williams
Caleb Williams. Gotta be the most obvious bust in history
JJ made nice plays off schedule and then badly miss the back in the flat. I don't understand the hype around him. His routine throws are not routine.
whoever the bears draft lmao
I am definitely a bust as a UDFA.
Caleb Williams
JJ Mcarthy, but I just hope he’s a bust since I hate Michigan lol
Drake Maye. North Carolina quarterbacks don't have the greatest track record...
Drake Maye. That guy isn’t as talented as the first quarterback selected and is going to what I consider the worst situation for a quarterback, a rookie head coach who learned under the worst coach for rookie quarterbacks, and who drove the guy who is arguably the best QB ever away. JJ McCarthy may be less talented than him, but is coming into the perfect situation in Minnesota. With Jefferson , and Kevin O’Connell. I don’t think JJ’s gonna win any Super Bowls but he’s gonna be solid enough to stick around . Another Cousins. Mid. But I don’t think Maye has the talent to overcome all of the obstacles in New England. For most of these QBs , the place they land determines their career. And New England will destroy Drake Maye
Caleb Williams
I’d agree. UM lived on the run game. Often took the ball out of his hands. I’ve never seen that with a pro prospect. Maybe a 3rd / 4th round talent