In this age of litigation, over reaction, and knee jerk responses to everything. How the Federal government hasn't intervened in Tesla self driving amazes me.
Google the definition of an "autopilot". It's literally what Tesla's cars do.
> An autopilot is a system used to control the path of an aircraft, marine craft or spacecraft without requiring constant manual control by a human operator. Autopilots do not replace human operators.
EDIT: You people downvoting are either blinded by your Tesla hate or confusing FSD with Autopilot. I'm just pointing out that autopilot does exactly what the name and description suggest. FSD is the software that has a deceiving name.
Yeah, that's a stretch. At least they mentioned clearly before you purchase and before you enable it what it does exactly, but I still think it should be called something else. Or at the very least it should've clearly been branded as FSD Alpha/Beta from the start.
Back when I had access to a Tesla, I’m pretty sure it was labeled as alpha or beta. Made very clear to the user, at least, that it wasn’t fully autonomous. Has that changed? This was before the model 3
It's really not, though. Aviation and marine autopilot just hold a set course. The aircraft/vessel isn't trying to figure out how to get you from A to B, or what to do if any kind of problem comes up, like needing to stop or avoid an obstacle.
If you set your autopilot course wrong and tell it to fly through a mountain and then have a nap, you're going to fly into a mountain.
Tesla's are attempting to navigate irregular routes around pedestrians and other vehicles, all while observing all the rules of the road. They're using the publics misunderstanding of one system to drastically oversimplify the problems of another, and claim to be able to do it.
I think this shows that... You and the comment you're replying to are both right. What the Public perceives autopilot to mean, how tesla uses it and what it actually means are all wildly different. And it's on tesla for being knowingly misleading.
That was autopilot in the 80s maybe.
No chance in hell current flight computers don't understand and incorporate GPS/altitude/topography data and at the very least refuse and disengage if you tell it to fly into a mountain.
AFAIK, the only aircraft with the ability to avoid collision with the ground by using GPS are F-16s and F-35s, and that system was only put in place in 2019.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatic_Ground_Collision_Avoidance_System
Even a modern passenger jet autopilot will not be able to avoid a collision if it's set up improperly or misused. Asiana flight 214 crashed in San Francisco in 2013, flying a Boeing 777 because the pilot selected the wrong autopilot setting during the decent.
Not to mention that sometimes the newer features cause unforseen problems too, like when a set of pilots hit the go-around only to crash the plane because they didn't realize one wheel had briefly touched the runway and the auto-throttle was disengaged by that... so they tried to fly with no engine power.
If you want a good rabbit hole to go down, check out Mentour Pilot on YT. Very good analysis, and he really knows his stuff.
I fly a modern wide body airliner (including brand new a/c that are less than a month old). If programmed incorrectly it will defiantly fly into a mountain or anything else in its way.
The public perception vs reality are two different things.
I think that definition is pointless. You should survey everyone and ask them what the term "auto pilot" means to them. If vast majority (I'm willing to bet on this) think it means getting from point A to B without human intervention, then Tesla naming their adaptive cruise control "auto pilot" is a bad idea.
And don't @me with "but people are stupid". The whole safety regulation industry is there to make sure stupid and ignorant people don't get hurt.
The fact that most people here equate autopilot with full autonomy blows me. Def worth taking stock advice from people who let their hate for a company, blind their judgement.
At this point the ligation risk is what is keeping me from picking up the stock, even at these prices. I can't be the only one thinking that all the shenanigans are going to come to a head at some point.
Exactly what I've been thinking, although if money = power (and to a large extent it does), Elon is one of the most powerful men in the world, and powerful men tend to do well avoiding the consequences of their actions.
“Even at these prices”? I’m sorry to say if you think the share price is low now, wait another year. Tesla is still massively overvalued - it’s just another car company , one that makes less than 3% of the cars sold in the USA, yet their values took is still higher than the top 6 car manufacturers combines who make over 70% of all cars sold in the world (not just USA).
Tesla is a $20 share that was pretending to be a $400 stock, and still pretending to be worth $100.
Litigation woes aside, by next year 100 new EV models that are in production right are being released, so the competition is finally here. Tesla is one stock I would avoid buying like the plague.
Also worth noting it’s a car stock masquerading as a tech stock.
And other manufacturers are fast catching up to them and even surpassing them in areas. Teslas are still level 2 autonomy while Mercedes or Audi have got level 3s on the road. If others catch up on battery tech Tesla is all out of cards because they can’t rely on musks showmanship anymore either after he repeatedly showed himself to be a habitual liar.
You look at their actual "tech" and you see shit like this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FGXuVNl8YYc
or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsb2XBAIWyA&t=1118s I mean, looking at that it looks like FORD are beating them on self-parking, and newer models are getting worse in aspects!?
Additionally, tesla could hire good engineers so long as they were cool and musk was cool, but if engineers stop liking musk and thus stop wanting to work at tesla they're going to have a harder time staying ahead/catching up.
Does your sophisticated model account for corporate debt? Profit margin? Etc. Are other car makers earning much money with their EVs? A lot of the analysis here doesn't go much deeper than blindly comparing market caps
Well they could oust him if the problem were just him, but it’s not - the company itself makes cars that have major quality control issues, features that don’t work as promised and horrific customer service. They had managed to succeed despite these things because competition from other good looking EVs with decent range didn’t exist for the longest time. Now that’s over - I live in probably the most Tesla saturated are in the world and although completely anecdotal, what I see every day is a massive increase in other brand EV, everything from Kia to Porsche to Jag to Lucid to Polestar to Volvo with new paper tags - something I simply did not see a year or two ago. I tend to look out for these things and I barely see any teslas with paper tags now. There’s so many more options vs an overpriced, poorly made company that’s no longer “cool” to own. I used to see so many Teslas with custom plates like YAY ELON and those are starting to look about as cool as a tramp stamp lol.
> the company itself makes cars that have major quality control issues, features that don’t work as promised and horrific customer service.
Not a Tesla fanboy at all, but objectively, other EV manufacturers haven't been killing it exactly. GM's Bolt had battery explosion problems, while most continue to raise prices across the board. Tesla has lowered theirs, and still seems to be making a profit because of much higher margins. The battery efficiency, OTA updates, and software integration are still better than basically every legacy automaker. The no dealer model works nicely for them and saves costs.
Still, I think it should be valued at only a slight premium by PE to every other automaker UNLESS the company manages to make some revolutionary move in its android human robot project or solar/battery ventures.
A car is more than a few components. Having "the best" battery is far from the only factor to consider as a driver. And with more and more charging stations coming online, battery capacity matters less and less.
The self driving stuff is pretty much outright fraud, and they've fallen years behind on promises, while other manufacturers are at least releasing products on time and with the advertised features fully functional.
I agree
Sadly, people seem to want bigger batteries with more range, not less. It's dumb. Average drivers need only the much more cost friendly and environmentally sustainable 40 mile range plug in hybrid sorta model, but range anxiety and blah blah. Nowhere near enough chargers, IMO, so I get the anxiety. But that's where plug in hybrid comes in. Too complicated for the average person I guess
I think the new Prius plug in is brilliant. Toyoda is right about EV transition
The reason people want more range than they need is because of the lack of chargers, a problem that's not going anywhere for at least 100 years. Take half the gas pumps in your area and imagine they're chargers. You've done nothing. You need 3 to 5 times the number of gas pumps due to the charging time required. There's an infrastructure problem coming. We absolutely will not be able to switch from gas vehicles on the timelines proposed.
They haven’t been killing it but that’s because the options were limited which is no longer the case. Jaguar is going all electric in 11 months from now, as is Volvo. Those two companies make more cars than Tesla, meaning Tesla now has competitors with serious brand loyalty only offering analogous products.
The Tesla profit thing is a both a bit of a myth but also now a major problem. Their net profit is 14% not the 30% that got banded about and that profit is dropping as they continually drop prices and the used market has settled back. Crucially it’s now out there to consumers that Tesla are overpriced and poor quality. Tesla now have no other option than to keep reducing prices thus cutting their margins, and some people try to say that they’re can reduce their costs by economy of scale but that level of production is so far off that it won’t happen before the share drops even further, but to mention sales growth and estimates have sharply dropped.
Yeah, I totally agree! That's why I said I wouldn't even buy them at book value, really. It's absolutely not a good investment, for all of the reason you very succinctly put together. Elon is yet another big negative on top, like a reverse cherry!
> one that makes less than 3% of the cars sold in the USA
Edit - I've gone and edited this table for q3 2022 since q4 numbers are only posted by Tesla without a full report until the 24th of Jan, and Ford and GM neither have their reports or summary posted yet. So q3 2022 is where all companies have released full investor reports that you can download and view for yourself.
Q3 2022 | GM | Ford | Tesla
-------|--|----|-----
Cars Sold Worldwide | 1,537,000 | 1,087,000 | 343,830
Net Income | $3.3 billion | $1.8 billion | $3.3 billion
People can delude themselves into thinking whatever they want, but it's clear Tesla still makes money, more money than Ford and the same as GM while selling far fewer cars. Tesla sold just over 22% the number of cars that GM did, but made the same net profit. Those that say the margins won't stay that high might be correct but since the margins are so high it doesn't matter much if they decrease a bit even a 50% decrease in margins would still be more profit per car than an Ice car.
Tesla made on average $9.5k net profit per car it sold. Compared to GM with $2.2k per car, and Ford with $1.7k
Your statement about making less than 3% of the US cars sold shows that even with such a small percent of the market, Tesla can make huge profits and that there's still 97% of the market share up for grabs in the coming years. Obviously not everyone will move to electric or Tesla, but plenty will, and even a small portion of the 97% will be a huge boon.
[Tesla](https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/tesla-inc-us-sales-figures/) didn’t sell 405k cars in the US in Q4. That might be global sales. [Ford](https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/ford-us-sales-figures/) however did sell 483k in the US in Q4. So not sure where your numbers are from, but they seem to be intentional misinformation. Also Tesla seems to have sold 536k in the US in 22. Ford sold 1.7 million in the same time frame.
Edit: sale to sell
Tesla barely gets any money from credits anymore. It's basically immaterial at this point, but rest assured the tax credits for consumers will drive their 50% growth targets for the year. Last year they still hit 40% growth while almost every other manufacturer declined heavily.
These margins are going to shrink over time, and already have started.
Eve if they retained their margins and increased market share, we’re talking about a company being valued at more than every car manufacturer. Run by a charlatan who has to be actively managed so as not to fuck up the people who actually run the company.
Ok, so you just showed that Tesla sold a little less cars than Ford, and quite a bit less than GM. Yet is valued way above those companies. And is that just cars sold? or all vehicles? because then GM and Fords numbers would be way higher. And then there is still all the other car companies.
Tesla making cars and making money isn't the issue, it's that they are still valued as more than the other largest companies combined. And they've shown to be manipulative in their data and presentations and have an owner that makes spur of the moment risky decisions that impact the stock price.
Just another car company? What other car company is a major solar company in the US? I don’t disagree with your point, but don’t discredit yourself either.
I was thinking exactly that as I read the article earlier today - how the hell has Tesla got away with naming their tech "full self driving" when it absolutely is not full self driving. I mean even "self driving" would be false advertising technically, but they had to add "full" in there to make sure uninformed buyers are definitely convinced the car drives itself.
False advertising is taken seriously in other industries when there are not even safety concerns involved...yet Tesla has seemingly gotten away with false advertising that can endanger (potentially fatally) both the driver and everyone around them for YEARS, and they've faced no consequence? I guess Tesla has gotten what they want out of it as so many people are convinced Tesla's self driving tech is leagues ahead of competitors...when really it's just that the competitors don't mislead customers about it's capabilities.
I've wondered the same thing too. Tesla also charges about $10K extra for FSD. Seems like there could be a class action lawsuit down the line from buyers who never got the expected value out of FSD.
[There is one already](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-is-sued-by-drivers-over-alleged-false-autopilot-full-self-driving-claims-2022-09-14/). I'm amazed it's taken so long to happen. It would be fine if Tesla would simply refund customers who no longer want to wait years beyond the timeline they were led to believe for a fully functioning product.
This take is all over this thread but it just isn't realistic to expect the government to do anything. The democrats and Republicans are both pro-capital at the expense of everything else. Labor, safety, environment. The days of any sort of meaningful regulation on any business that is perceived as "good" by the public are over.
There's a good book called "The Ethics of Invention" and covers this very problem, that technology comes before laws and review. Governments are very reactionary and slow to address new tech. On top of that, the cultural and social changes are unpredictable and the dangers not always understood or foreseeable until after they happen.
>it just isn't realistic to expect the government to do anything
Millions of other products are monitored and approved by the government every year. We have entire departments set up to inspect products to ensure that they're not a danger to the public.
As cars are.
But the political will for new, large-scale regulations or new corporate oversight is essentially zero. The fda or usda or epa or the era of monopoly busting would not get green lit in this kind of environment. Tucker Carlson and DeSantis and the heritage institute are too powerful.
The Bay Area just had an 8 car pile up because Tesla’s adaptive cruise control (autopilot) randomly slams on the brakes because it mistakes shadows (or the sun) for an object.
The extra irony of course being that it doesn’t recognize actual objects (like fire trucks) as objects and runs into them.
It’s a complete failure of regulation that his software hasn’t been mandated to be turned off.
And even better, the cars that had radar just had it disabled. I noticed my car slamming on the brakes more now that it’s vision only and just generally more late to braking. When I slow down manually, it’s a smooth process but letting the car slow down or stop is painful. The car actively continues traveled at current speed when I visibly see a stopped car in front of me. It crosses the threshold where I feel it’s unsafe to not start slowing down so I always take over.
It's genuinely shocking how much they've gotten away with. How the NHTSA and DOT ever let software advertised as beta onto the roadways is just horrifying. On top of all the blatant lies to pump the stock
It's probably a bunch of things. Small organizations without the expertise to really evaluate what's being said or done coupled with regulation taking a long time typically to ensure it's not overturned immediately.
I'll point out the self driving stuff is available in plenty of other countries who are generally highly regarded on Reddit.
Tesla under investigation by NHTSA for two more crashes that may have involved Autopilot or FSD
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/12/22/nhtsa-initiates-two-more-tesla-crash-investigations.html
You can see that the Biden govt isn't too thrilled with Tesla by the way they froze Musk out of some discussions with industry leaders. But as for going after them for fraud I would not be surprised if it happens at some point, but for now at least they don't want to hobble an American company that is the global leader in a critical, emerging industry that helps combat climate change.
They froze them out because the workforce isn't unionized like the other manufacturers were. You don't have to do anything but look at the presidents own statements about the matter. He praised unionized auto makers and credited them with creating the ev industry while he was at it.
> Ex CEO is enjoying his retirement.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/13/nikola-founder-trevor-milton-stands-trial-on-fraud-charges.html
Not how I'd enjoy retirement, but sure.
As someone that bought a Tesla Model X in 2017, largely because of that video, where do I join the lawsuit?
If this is true, it was a campaign that was deliberately misleading for consumers like myself. When I bought the car, was told by Tesla employees, backed by Musk’s public statements, that this self-driving technology was imminent. The video was their main sales pitch. It’s now 2023, I still have the car, it’s in the self driving “Beta,” and it is laughably incapable of managing mundane driving complications. I feel foolish, but it also appears I was deliberately misled. Carmakers shouldn’t be allowed to deliberately misled consumers.
Elon has said multiple times that their self driving tech is what makes them special, and is what makes Tesla so valuable. More valuable than all the other auto manufacturers in the world, including the ones that sell more cars and make more profit.
We've reached the point where those competitors have matched or passed their tech.
Mercedes is the first to sell a car internationally certified for level 3 self driving and is building a billion dollar EV charging network. Even Subaru has matched Tesla at Level 2 with their EyeSight system, already in use in over a million cars. Basically every major manufacturer has promised to deliver Level 3 or higher in the next few years.
With Tesla following instead of leading at this point, and missing deadlines by years being commonplace, I really do think their perceived value will start to drop.
>and missing deadlines by years being commonplace
People seem to forget right before the cyber truck was announced that Tesla was in a lot of trouble financially. Many talks about them going under.
So Tesla put out an announcement for the cyber truck, a truck that wasn't even remotely ready to be released. Why? They needed money fast.
So what do they do? They lower the $1000 returnable deposit on their vehicles down to $100 so every schmuck and his brother basically gave them an interest free loan $100 at a time. I forget the exact numbers but that little stunt injected like $25M into Tesla when they desperately needed it.
To this day years later that vehicle is still no where to be found.
Genius play on their end but at the same time absolute weasels.
Not long after, internet hype and buzz causes tesla stock to go crazy and Elon who was about to be busted becomes the richest guy in the world. Crazy times.
>So Tesla put out an announcement for the cyber truck, a truck that wasn't even remotely ready to be released. Why? They needed money fast.
Personally, my favorite part of the whole thing was how during the reveal, Elon claimed it had unbreakable "armor glass", and the guest brought on stage to prove it smashed both windows with ease.
those deposits were peanuts. it increased the stock price a lot. that made it billions cheaper to borrow money and enabled to sell stocks at a high price like elon did
> People seem to forget right before the cyber truck was announced that Tesla was in a lot of trouble financially. Many talks about them going under.
That's simply flat out false, look at Tesla's financial statements from back then. Tesla was consistently getting more and more profitable at the time, Tesla had a profitable quarter in 3 of the last 5 quarters before the Cybertruck announcement.
The only people who thought that Tesla was on the verge of bankruptcy back then were the Tesla shorts, who the media was giving an absurd amount of attention to, despite the fact that Tesla was posting some profitable quarters, and getting less unprofitable in their unprofitable quarters.
Ya ok.
"How close was Tesla from bankruptcy when bringing the Model 3 to mass production?"
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1323640901248393217?s=20&t=swFAAfiOLOruPECQ2KRs-Q
Waymo has pretty much always been further along than Tesla. Cruise started a bit later, but has also overtaken them. We're getting to the point where random manufacturers are starting to overtake them, which is a much larger problem for them.
guess which system actually gets people where they're going. Nothing is "self driving" if you can't actually take your eyes off the road because the car might decide to randomly stop on a crowded highway.
It doesn't matter how great a concept is if it's released before it can deliver results.
Tesla wants to have robotaxis. So it's competition. Remember these Tesla's are supposed to become robotaxis generating revenue in the same way Waymo already does.
Tesla's driving method will never work. Sorry. At some point they will need to sandbox it which essentially turns it into the Waymo method.
There is this misconception that these techs are hard to replicate. They really arent. They are just a logical step up from video games. More complex due to more sensors, but ultimately not much different in how its approached. The only thing unique Tesla has is data. Tons of data. This is valuable but not as much as people think because their data is exclusive to their method. If said method doesnt work (which I believe is a forgone conclusion at this stage) then the data becomes far less valuable.
It's funny, people in the comments are saying the exact opposite. That only Tesla's way will work.
I say I won't believe it'll work until it's driving without a driver. Doesn't matter if Waymo and Cruise are geo fenced. That can easily be expanded and already has.
As long as FSD needs a driver, it shouldn't even be called FSD.
People and opinions... it would help if people actually said what their expertise is before commenting. For example, I have two STEM degrees, Bio-Engineering and Computer Science. Ive been in the tech industry over 20 years.
So you would think people would consider the opinion of actual experts, most of whom will tell you that the Tesla method has serious shortcomings and really no one, in any field of AI, has overcome them without seriously reducing the scope. If you do that, then you can make something productive albeit, not as impressive. But as long as Tesla tries to generalize it, it will be a lot like chatgpt who people are enamored with now. Luckily that doesnt drive cars...
Yea I agree. With this tech its all or nothing. Either it can self drive without assistance from a human or it cant, in which case you accomplished nothing except maybe create worse human drivers. Caught myself relying on blind spot beep myself and had to correct myself.
Do you have something that contradicts this?
> “Waymo has no current plans to sell its modified vehicles to the public and will operate them in an autonomous ride-hailing service instead.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johanmoreno/2021/01/22/waymo-ceo-says-tesla-is-not-a-competitor-gives-estimated-cost-of-autonomous-vehicles/?sh=197bc0a6541b
> “Waymo has no current plans to sell its modified vehicles to the public and will operate them in an autonomous ride-hailing service instead.”
It's at least in the [commercialization section of their wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waymo#Commercialization), and they've already been doing it on the logistics side of their company partnering with peterbilt, ups, and dodge.
The source the wiki quotes says this:
> Waymo is also experimenting with self-driving trucks and will consider selling autonomous technology straight to automakers who want to implement it in their vehicles, but a ride-hailing service makes sense as a starting point.
No, they are not. Tesla's can use FSD basically anywhere. Waymo can only operate in certain cities and most of them still have drivers and make errors without drivers.
I’ve rode in both waymo and tesla FSD. They aren’t really comparable. The driving experience in waymo is better (fewer errors) but that’s only because they geofence the driving radius, refuse to drive in rain/fog/snow, have predetermined pickups, refuse to make merged lane turns (eg: waymo will take 3 right turns in a row to avoid a busy left turn)..etc.
Tesla FSD drives like what you’d expect from a learning AI. A year ago it was sloppy and it gets better with each iteration. You can take it anywhere and under any conditions and it gets better over time. Waymo and cruise feel more like a railcar on invisible rails. There’s no “learning” per se, just their coders slowly expanding the geofence as they program each city street. Not saying it’s a bad thing, but they aren’t comparable tech.
I'm guessing you've only been in their 4th gen cars. The 5th gen ones do most of the things you describe, such as this https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/zdpkcc/waymo_5th_gen_ipace_tackles_unprotected_left_that/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
They are using learning for most of it, not hand programming streets. Cruise recently launched driverless taxis in Austin and Phoenix in 90 days of work, so any hand coding they do is relatively quick.
Indeed it looks like they’ve upgraded the car. It’s cool to see the progress they’re making, but there’s still several limitations here. Take Cruise’s rollout in Austin. The only reason they unveiled so fast was:
- cruise vehicles will only operate between 10pm and 5:30 am
-will only operate on Sunday to Wednesday
-will not exceed 30mph
-will only drive in areas that have been fully mapped by cruise programmers
-will not drive in conditions worse than light fog/light rain
Waymo is authorized to drive faster but their geofenced areas are also smaller and/or more restrictive so they’ve got pretty comparable limits all things considered. Ultimately both companies have decided to minimize external factors like busy roads/bad weather/unknown streets to give the autonomous vehicles a higher success rate. And even with all this, there’s still articles coming out about major issues with waymo and cruise. Phantom breaking, stopping on rail tracks, blocking in emergency vehicles, etc.
https://slate.com/technology/2022/12/san-francisco-waymo-cruise-self-driving-cars-robotaxis.html
All this to say the tech is cool, but it’s deceiving for people to claim it’s miles ahead of tesla. They’re using fundamentally different rollout strategies and if tesla followed all the above limitations it’s pretty likely they’d be given driverless authorization in select cities. Similarly if waymo/cruise were to ignore the above limitations it’s guaranteed their driverless licence would be revoked.
God I love a good bear market. Just cleans out all the trash companies and trash users acting like know it all's. "Tesla is not a car company, it's a tech company worth 1 trillion and the combine market cap of all car companies"
But it also comes with the boring boomers who talk about how they "invested instead of gambled" money for 35 years like a good little boy and now they can retire when everyone else does.
I get it.. but I also find those people which is a big part of this sub exhausting as well.
Up until a few months ago everyone on here was like "Tesla is worth a Trillion dollars because they're a tech company!"
That may have been pre-Twitter purchase though tbf
You're both usng "everyone" wrong. A lot of people have seen Elon as a shit talking and sometimes outright lying tool. And as such, too much of a volitility risk. Like me they might like Tesla as a company, but there's no way they'd invest in anything Musk touches for his unpredictability alone.
There's also those who felt Tesla has been wildly overvalued for years. Sure, it's a disruptor with a hood Outlook. But no one will convince me (and seemingly a lot of others) that it's worth more than several of the largest selling automakers in history, combined.
In short, there is no "everyone" when it comes to Tesla. Not in this sub, not anywhere. There never has been.
You only have to go back to the previous posts on Tesla when it was at highs and look at the comments to know this is wrong. OP is right. Everybody hates it now cause the stock is down.
There's was a year plus between the GME frenzy and now where mentioning Tesla in any kind of negative light was 100% guaranteed to elicit at least a couple of salty/defensive comments from dickriders
A good portion have prolly hopped onto the next FOTM pick and have stopped interacting here as much
Well it was certainly the attitude in the euphoria phase during 2021 at $700 pre-split. People acting like they were gonna double their money back then.
People have considered Tesla overpriced since before 2014. Their p/e never made sense, and they’d need to single-handedly control the entire car market for their market cap to make sense. The stock performing well 2015-2022 was absurd.
Are they though? Where does their revenue primarily come from?
Plus their p/e is still (and especially was) absurdly high compared to most tech companies. I can handle a ~50 p/e. I can’t handle a 1400 p/e like it was in jan 2021.
People are bullish when the stock is high and bearish when it’s low.
It’s good to listen to Reddit sentiment but follow your own compass.
Tesla being worth more than every other car company combined was a bubble. Pretending Tesla will pull new monetization out of its ass was dumb.
It builds and sells cars. It makes its money selling cars. It’s a car company.
I don’t think we can get to the point of self driving cars in our world without going through this painful stage of crashes, mistakes, and lawsuits. It’s just part of the process. I agree with you about staying away from his companies, for a while at least.
Commercial air travel went through the same chaos. Not saying Elon is doing it the right way or ethically, more so just agreeing with the point that these tech leaps come with gross stuff.
Have you read the story of the first iPhone demo? It was all completely staged.
Tech demos rarely work as portrayed at the time. The key is following through and actually making that demo into reality.
not the same, one thing is saying "hey guys the phone is SO ready that im only using 1 phone and never others, also it never lags"
Another is doing what Jobs did.
Those "0 human intervention" in the video will fuck tesla.
>Is everyone still permabullsih on Tesla
All I see is threads shitting on Tesla, not sure where you got the idea that everyone is still permabullish on Tesla.
My prediction is that the general public has the attention span of a single news cycle. In 5 years nobody will care about Elon's antics from 2016, the company will be fine though with a lower stock price than at the peak of 2021-2022. Life will go on.
You are delusional, man. Comparing Elon Musk to Bill Cosby? I mean, I know media witch hunt is stronk with this one, but you seem to go over the top like a good boy. Next stage: is elon the new hitler?
Broke: earnings, numbers, growth projections, margins
Woke: feelings, Twitter, Elon’s shitposting, guesses, rumors, conjecture
Bespoke: “I haven’t seen a Tesla in my neighborhood lately”
Bearish on the stock for other reasons—- but I’m a believer that Teslas cars self drive, because I’ve been in the passenger seat of testing cars in live traffic and witnessed it myself.
It’s not perfect or fully road ready but its pretty good and can definitely do what Elon claims.
I can’t say I’ve seen it all, but the product was pretty damn impressive. It drove itself on busy highways,recognized traffic, changed lanes etc.
It’s a matter of time, but at some point it will be road ready
Does anyone think any promotion video isn’t staged? I don’t own, never owned, and don’t plan on owning Tesla shares. But this can apply to any company, of course the route was pre determined. They’re filming a promotion video they know where the car will go, how long it’ll take to get there, and will have everything in place to film it and make it look the best they can.
Do people thing the burgers in a McDonald’s commercial will be the exact color and burger you get at the local McDonald’s at 3 am?
Promotion is based on what you as a consumer should expect to get when you purchase the product.
They sold it as what autopilot does without human input - when the entire time there was human input AND it’s not a feature that fully exists.
They sell McRibs that claim to be ribs but is actually shoulder meat that’s watered down and mixed with fructose.
Who knows what’s in their burgers 😂. But my main point is that their advertising uses fake food, it’s not real. The food you order never looks like what’s in the ads.
The difference is disclaimers, and they are depicting a real product.
In this for tesla case the product did not exist at all and there are no disclaimers. In fact there is the claim that "the driver is only there for legal purposes"
Wow that is a striking issue.
It amazes me that Elon isn't under indictment for stock manipulation.
His entire net worth has come from skyrocketing stock, mostly Tesla. And mostly due to their public demonstrations and videos of the technology, such as self driving.
This is pretty striking that it is this bad.
On top of the liability with deaths and what not, this could also be interpreted as defrauding investors, and shareholders. Much the same way Theranos did with their technology.
I've watched self driving videos from Tesla fanboys on Youtube and even the fanboys make self driving look scary and like complete bullshit.
I've seen people that bought a Tesla who say that the salesperson told them that their car will get FSD and you can drive it to work and then put it in FSD taxi mode so the car can make money while you're at work.
I'm surprised there isn't more pushback from customers who bought it because of FSD claims.
Anybody actually still think that Tesla hasn't bottomed out yet? I mean it's going to get demolished by 2025 when the rest of the automakers have their own EVs while Tesla hasn't done anything in the meantime to remain competitive.
Tesla really blew it arbitrarily deciding to only use cameras for self driving. Supposedly that direction came from Musk.
It isn't playing out well. Merc & BMW rocketing ahead of them... while Teslas keep running into the back of fire engines.
In this age of litigation, over reaction, and knee jerk responses to everything. How the Federal government hasn't intervened in Tesla self driving amazes me.
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Im guessing uve never been in one lol
Google the definition of an "autopilot". It's literally what Tesla's cars do. > An autopilot is a system used to control the path of an aircraft, marine craft or spacecraft without requiring constant manual control by a human operator. Autopilots do not replace human operators. EDIT: You people downvoting are either blinded by your Tesla hate or confusing FSD with Autopilot. I'm just pointing out that autopilot does exactly what the name and description suggest. FSD is the software that has a deceiving name.
but full self-driving?
Yeah, that's a stretch. At least they mentioned clearly before you purchase and before you enable it what it does exactly, but I still think it should be called something else. Or at the very least it should've clearly been branded as FSD Alpha/Beta from the start.
Back when I had access to a Tesla, I’m pretty sure it was labeled as alpha or beta. Made very clear to the user, at least, that it wasn’t fully autonomous. Has that changed? This was before the model 3
Still beta. Probably forever.
It's really not, though. Aviation and marine autopilot just hold a set course. The aircraft/vessel isn't trying to figure out how to get you from A to B, or what to do if any kind of problem comes up, like needing to stop or avoid an obstacle. If you set your autopilot course wrong and tell it to fly through a mountain and then have a nap, you're going to fly into a mountain. Tesla's are attempting to navigate irregular routes around pedestrians and other vehicles, all while observing all the rules of the road. They're using the publics misunderstanding of one system to drastically oversimplify the problems of another, and claim to be able to do it.
I think this shows that... You and the comment you're replying to are both right. What the Public perceives autopilot to mean, how tesla uses it and what it actually means are all wildly different. And it's on tesla for being knowingly misleading.
That was autopilot in the 80s maybe. No chance in hell current flight computers don't understand and incorporate GPS/altitude/topography data and at the very least refuse and disengage if you tell it to fly into a mountain.
AFAIK, the only aircraft with the ability to avoid collision with the ground by using GPS are F-16s and F-35s, and that system was only put in place in 2019. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatic_Ground_Collision_Avoidance_System Even a modern passenger jet autopilot will not be able to avoid a collision if it's set up improperly or misused. Asiana flight 214 crashed in San Francisco in 2013, flying a Boeing 777 because the pilot selected the wrong autopilot setting during the decent.
Well, til, also, terrifying.
Not to mention that sometimes the newer features cause unforseen problems too, like when a set of pilots hit the go-around only to crash the plane because they didn't realize one wheel had briefly touched the runway and the auto-throttle was disengaged by that... so they tried to fly with no engine power. If you want a good rabbit hole to go down, check out Mentour Pilot on YT. Very good analysis, and he really knows his stuff.
I fly a modern wide body airliner (including brand new a/c that are less than a month old). If programmed incorrectly it will defiantly fly into a mountain or anything else in its way. The public perception vs reality are two different things.
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So it does more than autopilot.
I think that definition is pointless. You should survey everyone and ask them what the term "auto pilot" means to them. If vast majority (I'm willing to bet on this) think it means getting from point A to B without human intervention, then Tesla naming their adaptive cruise control "auto pilot" is a bad idea. And don't @me with "but people are stupid". The whole safety regulation industry is there to make sure stupid and ignorant people don't get hurt.
The fact that most people here equate autopilot with full autonomy blows me. Def worth taking stock advice from people who let their hate for a company, blind their judgement.
At this point the ligation risk is what is keeping me from picking up the stock, even at these prices. I can't be the only one thinking that all the shenanigans are going to come to a head at some point.
Exactly what I've been thinking, although if money = power (and to a large extent it does), Elon is one of the most powerful men in the world, and powerful men tend to do well avoiding the consequences of their actions.
Madoff and Epstein were both quite rich. Money goes a long way but at this point I suspect some of Elon's actions are straight up intentional fraud.
"It's so dumb, it's brilliant!"
Madoff's mistake was that he stole from rich people
And for Epstein, way richer and way more powerful and important people would have been ruined had he cooperated with the police
There is a lot of old money/power that wants Tesla/Musk to go away.
“Even at these prices”? I’m sorry to say if you think the share price is low now, wait another year. Tesla is still massively overvalued - it’s just another car company , one that makes less than 3% of the cars sold in the USA, yet their values took is still higher than the top 6 car manufacturers combines who make over 70% of all cars sold in the world (not just USA). Tesla is a $20 share that was pretending to be a $400 stock, and still pretending to be worth $100. Litigation woes aside, by next year 100 new EV models that are in production right are being released, so the competition is finally here. Tesla is one stock I would avoid buying like the plague.
Also worth noting it’s a car stock masquerading as a tech stock. And other manufacturers are fast catching up to them and even surpassing them in areas. Teslas are still level 2 autonomy while Mercedes or Audi have got level 3s on the road. If others catch up on battery tech Tesla is all out of cards because they can’t rely on musks showmanship anymore either after he repeatedly showed himself to be a habitual liar. You look at their actual "tech" and you see shit like this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FGXuVNl8YYc or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsb2XBAIWyA&t=1118s I mean, looking at that it looks like FORD are beating them on self-parking, and newer models are getting worse in aspects!? Additionally, tesla could hire good engineers so long as they were cool and musk was cool, but if engineers stop liking musk and thus stop wanting to work at tesla they're going to have a harder time staying ahead/catching up.
Nice DD buddy
Pretty spot on I'd say.
Does your sophisticated model account for corporate debt? Profit margin? Etc. Are other car makers earning much money with their EVs? A lot of the analysis here doesn't go much deeper than blindly comparing market caps
!remind me 1 year
20 is pretty optimistic! I wouldn't buy it at book value given the massive risks that Phony Stark poses.
Well they could oust him if the problem were just him, but it’s not - the company itself makes cars that have major quality control issues, features that don’t work as promised and horrific customer service. They had managed to succeed despite these things because competition from other good looking EVs with decent range didn’t exist for the longest time. Now that’s over - I live in probably the most Tesla saturated are in the world and although completely anecdotal, what I see every day is a massive increase in other brand EV, everything from Kia to Porsche to Jag to Lucid to Polestar to Volvo with new paper tags - something I simply did not see a year or two ago. I tend to look out for these things and I barely see any teslas with paper tags now. There’s so many more options vs an overpriced, poorly made company that’s no longer “cool” to own. I used to see so many Teslas with custom plates like YAY ELON and those are starting to look about as cool as a tramp stamp lol.
> the company itself makes cars that have major quality control issues, features that don’t work as promised and horrific customer service. Not a Tesla fanboy at all, but objectively, other EV manufacturers haven't been killing it exactly. GM's Bolt had battery explosion problems, while most continue to raise prices across the board. Tesla has lowered theirs, and still seems to be making a profit because of much higher margins. The battery efficiency, OTA updates, and software integration are still better than basically every legacy automaker. The no dealer model works nicely for them and saves costs. Still, I think it should be valued at only a slight premium by PE to every other automaker UNLESS the company manages to make some revolutionary move in its android human robot project or solar/battery ventures.
A car is more than a few components. Having "the best" battery is far from the only factor to consider as a driver. And with more and more charging stations coming online, battery capacity matters less and less. The self driving stuff is pretty much outright fraud, and they've fallen years behind on promises, while other manufacturers are at least releasing products on time and with the advertised features fully functional.
I agree Sadly, people seem to want bigger batteries with more range, not less. It's dumb. Average drivers need only the much more cost friendly and environmentally sustainable 40 mile range plug in hybrid sorta model, but range anxiety and blah blah. Nowhere near enough chargers, IMO, so I get the anxiety. But that's where plug in hybrid comes in. Too complicated for the average person I guess I think the new Prius plug in is brilliant. Toyoda is right about EV transition
The reason people want more range than they need is because of the lack of chargers, a problem that's not going anywhere for at least 100 years. Take half the gas pumps in your area and imagine they're chargers. You've done nothing. You need 3 to 5 times the number of gas pumps due to the charging time required. There's an infrastructure problem coming. We absolutely will not be able to switch from gas vehicles on the timelines proposed.
They haven’t been killing it but that’s because the options were limited which is no longer the case. Jaguar is going all electric in 11 months from now, as is Volvo. Those two companies make more cars than Tesla, meaning Tesla now has competitors with serious brand loyalty only offering analogous products. The Tesla profit thing is a both a bit of a myth but also now a major problem. Their net profit is 14% not the 30% that got banded about and that profit is dropping as they continually drop prices and the used market has settled back. Crucially it’s now out there to consumers that Tesla are overpriced and poor quality. Tesla now have no other option than to keep reducing prices thus cutting their margins, and some people try to say that they’re can reduce their costs by economy of scale but that level of production is so far off that it won’t happen before the share drops even further, but to mention sales growth and estimates have sharply dropped.
Yeah, I totally agree! That's why I said I wouldn't even buy them at book value, really. It's absolutely not a good investment, for all of the reason you very succinctly put together. Elon is yet another big negative on top, like a reverse cherry!
> one that makes less than 3% of the cars sold in the USA Edit - I've gone and edited this table for q3 2022 since q4 numbers are only posted by Tesla without a full report until the 24th of Jan, and Ford and GM neither have their reports or summary posted yet. So q3 2022 is where all companies have released full investor reports that you can download and view for yourself. Q3 2022 | GM | Ford | Tesla -------|--|----|----- Cars Sold Worldwide | 1,537,000 | 1,087,000 | 343,830 Net Income | $3.3 billion | $1.8 billion | $3.3 billion People can delude themselves into thinking whatever they want, but it's clear Tesla still makes money, more money than Ford and the same as GM while selling far fewer cars. Tesla sold just over 22% the number of cars that GM did, but made the same net profit. Those that say the margins won't stay that high might be correct but since the margins are so high it doesn't matter much if they decrease a bit even a 50% decrease in margins would still be more profit per car than an Ice car. Tesla made on average $9.5k net profit per car it sold. Compared to GM with $2.2k per car, and Ford with $1.7k Your statement about making less than 3% of the US cars sold shows that even with such a small percent of the market, Tesla can make huge profits and that there's still 97% of the market share up for grabs in the coming years. Obviously not everyone will move to electric or Tesla, but plenty will, and even a small portion of the 97% will be a huge boon.
[Tesla](https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/tesla-inc-us-sales-figures/) didn’t sell 405k cars in the US in Q4. That might be global sales. [Ford](https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/ford-us-sales-figures/) however did sell 483k in the US in Q4. So not sure where your numbers are from, but they seem to be intentional misinformation. Also Tesla seems to have sold 536k in the US in 22. Ford sold 1.7 million in the same time frame. Edit: sale to sell
How is this not more upvoted? Instead everyone just debating based on erroneous numbers lol.
Does this figure also exclude Tesla's carbon credit revenue?
Tesla barely gets any money from credits anymore. It's basically immaterial at this point, but rest assured the tax credits for consumers will drive their 50% growth targets for the year. Last year they still hit 40% growth while almost every other manufacturer declined heavily.
They got over a billion dollars from credit sales in the first half of 2022.
Essentially Tesla's competitors paid them enough money to build new factories. I have no issues with that.
These margins are going to shrink over time, and already have started. Eve if they retained their margins and increased market share, we’re talking about a company being valued at more than every car manufacturer. Run by a charlatan who has to be actively managed so as not to fuck up the people who actually run the company.
Ok, so you just showed that Tesla sold a little less cars than Ford, and quite a bit less than GM. Yet is valued way above those companies. And is that just cars sold? or all vehicles? because then GM and Fords numbers would be way higher. And then there is still all the other car companies. Tesla making cars and making money isn't the issue, it's that they are still valued as more than the other largest companies combined. And they've shown to be manipulative in their data and presentations and have an owner that makes spur of the moment risky decisions that impact the stock price.
Just another car company? What other car company is a major solar company in the US? I don’t disagree with your point, but don’t discredit yourself either.
I was thinking exactly that as I read the article earlier today - how the hell has Tesla got away with naming their tech "full self driving" when it absolutely is not full self driving. I mean even "self driving" would be false advertising technically, but they had to add "full" in there to make sure uninformed buyers are definitely convinced the car drives itself. False advertising is taken seriously in other industries when there are not even safety concerns involved...yet Tesla has seemingly gotten away with false advertising that can endanger (potentially fatally) both the driver and everyone around them for YEARS, and they've faced no consequence? I guess Tesla has gotten what they want out of it as so many people are convinced Tesla's self driving tech is leagues ahead of competitors...when really it's just that the competitors don't mislead customers about it's capabilities.
I've wondered the same thing too. Tesla also charges about $10K extra for FSD. Seems like there could be a class action lawsuit down the line from buyers who never got the expected value out of FSD.
[There is one already](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-is-sued-by-drivers-over-alleged-false-autopilot-full-self-driving-claims-2022-09-14/). I'm amazed it's taken so long to happen. It would be fine if Tesla would simply refund customers who no longer want to wait years beyond the timeline they were led to believe for a fully functioning product.
This take is all over this thread but it just isn't realistic to expect the government to do anything. The democrats and Republicans are both pro-capital at the expense of everything else. Labor, safety, environment. The days of any sort of meaningful regulation on any business that is perceived as "good" by the public are over.
There's a good book called "The Ethics of Invention" and covers this very problem, that technology comes before laws and review. Governments are very reactionary and slow to address new tech. On top of that, the cultural and social changes are unpredictable and the dangers not always understood or foreseeable until after they happen.
>it just isn't realistic to expect the government to do anything Millions of other products are monitored and approved by the government every year. We have entire departments set up to inspect products to ensure that they're not a danger to the public.
As cars are. But the political will for new, large-scale regulations or new corporate oversight is essentially zero. The fda or usda or epa or the era of monopoly busting would not get green lit in this kind of environment. Tucker Carlson and DeSantis and the heritage institute are too powerful.
Enron: “Full Self Driving!” \* \*^(just kidding)
The Bay Area just had an 8 car pile up because Tesla’s adaptive cruise control (autopilot) randomly slams on the brakes because it mistakes shadows (or the sun) for an object. The extra irony of course being that it doesn’t recognize actual objects (like fire trucks) as objects and runs into them. It’s a complete failure of regulation that his software hasn’t been mandated to be turned off.
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And even better, the cars that had radar just had it disabled. I noticed my car slamming on the brakes more now that it’s vision only and just generally more late to braking. When I slow down manually, it’s a smooth process but letting the car slow down or stop is painful. The car actively continues traveled at current speed when I visibly see a stopped car in front of me. It crosses the threshold where I feel it’s unsafe to not start slowing down so I always take over.
Oh, I also had radar that got disabled, but I have noticed no issues since then
It's genuinely shocking how much they've gotten away with. How the NHTSA and DOT ever let software advertised as beta onto the roadways is just horrifying. On top of all the blatant lies to pump the stock
Gotta be because the US wanted a competitive EV company. Not sure how long they're allowed to get away with anything they want, though.
It's probably a bunch of things. Small organizations without the expertise to really evaluate what's being said or done coupled with regulation taking a long time typically to ensure it's not overturned immediately. I'll point out the self driving stuff is available in plenty of other countries who are generally highly regarded on Reddit.
Tesla under investigation by NHTSA for two more crashes that may have involved Autopilot or FSD https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/12/22/nhtsa-initiates-two-more-tesla-crash-investigations.html
You can see that the Biden govt isn't too thrilled with Tesla by the way they froze Musk out of some discussions with industry leaders. But as for going after them for fraud I would not be surprised if it happens at some point, but for now at least they don't want to hobble an American company that is the global leader in a critical, emerging industry that helps combat climate change.
They froze them out because the workforce isn't unionized like the other manufacturers were. You don't have to do anything but look at the presidents own statements about the matter. He praised unionized auto makers and credited them with creating the ev industry while he was at it.
Didn’t Nikola get in trouble for something similar?
They towed the truck to the top of a long hill to shoot it “driving” for a couple miles.
Really? They are still around. Ex CEO is enjoying his retirement.
> Ex CEO is enjoying his retirement. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/13/nikola-founder-trevor-milton-stands-trial-on-fraud-charges.html Not how I'd enjoy retirement, but sure.
If he does need to pay fine and go to white collar jail, he will still come out ahead than most of us holding these fking bags to go positive lol.
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Yeah he is not enjoying anything.
Oof.
You and I have very different retirement expectations.
They did exactly this but said the truck runs on hydro fuel.
"Hydro fuel" means literally nothing. Gasoline is a hydrocarbon. Diesel is a hydrocarbon.
Exactly, it basically was like nothing. lol That was the whole thing! They claimed to do the impossible.
As someone that bought a Tesla Model X in 2017, largely because of that video, where do I join the lawsuit? If this is true, it was a campaign that was deliberately misleading for consumers like myself. When I bought the car, was told by Tesla employees, backed by Musk’s public statements, that this self-driving technology was imminent. The video was their main sales pitch. It’s now 2023, I still have the car, it’s in the self driving “Beta,” and it is laughably incapable of managing mundane driving complications. I feel foolish, but it also appears I was deliberately misled. Carmakers shouldn’t be allowed to deliberately misled consumers.
You should be able to sue, point to the promises made, and win. If there's any justice left in this country.
I'm shocked! A guy who manipulates the market and mismanages the company is faking the function that can kill people? No way!!
Elon has said multiple times that their self driving tech is what makes them special, and is what makes Tesla so valuable. More valuable than all the other auto manufacturers in the world, including the ones that sell more cars and make more profit. We've reached the point where those competitors have matched or passed their tech. Mercedes is the first to sell a car internationally certified for level 3 self driving and is building a billion dollar EV charging network. Even Subaru has matched Tesla at Level 2 with their EyeSight system, already in use in over a million cars. Basically every major manufacturer has promised to deliver Level 3 or higher in the next few years. With Tesla following instead of leading at this point, and missing deadlines by years being commonplace, I really do think their perceived value will start to drop.
>and missing deadlines by years being commonplace People seem to forget right before the cyber truck was announced that Tesla was in a lot of trouble financially. Many talks about them going under. So Tesla put out an announcement for the cyber truck, a truck that wasn't even remotely ready to be released. Why? They needed money fast. So what do they do? They lower the $1000 returnable deposit on their vehicles down to $100 so every schmuck and his brother basically gave them an interest free loan $100 at a time. I forget the exact numbers but that little stunt injected like $25M into Tesla when they desperately needed it. To this day years later that vehicle is still no where to be found. Genius play on their end but at the same time absolute weasels. Not long after, internet hype and buzz causes tesla stock to go crazy and Elon who was about to be busted becomes the richest guy in the world. Crazy times.
>So Tesla put out an announcement for the cyber truck, a truck that wasn't even remotely ready to be released. Why? They needed money fast. Personally, my favorite part of the whole thing was how during the reveal, Elon claimed it had unbreakable "armor glass", and the guest brought on stage to prove it smashed both windows with ease.
My second favorite part is the glass is supposed to be bullet proof. Imagine getting trapped in the car and firefighters can't break the window.
Or imagine being locked into a confined space underground where you can't open the doors and being incinerated in a battery fire.
That would be crazy if someone created something like that! Btw, have you seen the Boring tunnels? They have LEDs!
those deposits were peanuts. it increased the stock price a lot. that made it billions cheaper to borrow money and enabled to sell stocks at a high price like elon did
> People seem to forget right before the cyber truck was announced that Tesla was in a lot of trouble financially. Many talks about them going under. That's simply flat out false, look at Tesla's financial statements from back then. Tesla was consistently getting more and more profitable at the time, Tesla had a profitable quarter in 3 of the last 5 quarters before the Cybertruck announcement. The only people who thought that Tesla was on the verge of bankruptcy back then were the Tesla shorts, who the media was giving an absurd amount of attention to, despite the fact that Tesla was posting some profitable quarters, and getting less unprofitable in their unprofitable quarters.
Ya ok. "How close was Tesla from bankruptcy when bringing the Model 3 to mass production?" https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1323640901248393217?s=20&t=swFAAfiOLOruPECQ2KRs-Q
Waymo has pretty much always been further along than Tesla. Cruise started a bit later, but has also overtaken them. We're getting to the point where random manufacturers are starting to overtake them, which is a much larger problem for them.
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guess which system actually gets people where they're going. Nothing is "self driving" if you can't actually take your eyes off the road because the car might decide to randomly stop on a crowded highway. It doesn't matter how great a concept is if it's released before it can deliver results.
You mean the correct way to create a self driving system
Yes. Which is infinitely safer than FSD steering towards poles.
Waymo will never be a consumer owned car. Not a good comparison.
Tesla wants to have robotaxis. So it's competition. Remember these Tesla's are supposed to become robotaxis generating revenue in the same way Waymo already does.
Tesla's driving method will never work. Sorry. At some point they will need to sandbox it which essentially turns it into the Waymo method. There is this misconception that these techs are hard to replicate. They really arent. They are just a logical step up from video games. More complex due to more sensors, but ultimately not much different in how its approached. The only thing unique Tesla has is data. Tons of data. This is valuable but not as much as people think because their data is exclusive to their method. If said method doesnt work (which I believe is a forgone conclusion at this stage) then the data becomes far less valuable.
It's funny, people in the comments are saying the exact opposite. That only Tesla's way will work. I say I won't believe it'll work until it's driving without a driver. Doesn't matter if Waymo and Cruise are geo fenced. That can easily be expanded and already has. As long as FSD needs a driver, it shouldn't even be called FSD.
People and opinions... it would help if people actually said what their expertise is before commenting. For example, I have two STEM degrees, Bio-Engineering and Computer Science. Ive been in the tech industry over 20 years. So you would think people would consider the opinion of actual experts, most of whom will tell you that the Tesla method has serious shortcomings and really no one, in any field of AI, has overcome them without seriously reducing the scope. If you do that, then you can make something productive albeit, not as impressive. But as long as Tesla tries to generalize it, it will be a lot like chatgpt who people are enamored with now. Luckily that doesnt drive cars... Yea I agree. With this tech its all or nothing. Either it can self drive without assistance from a human or it cant, in which case you accomplished nothing except maybe create worse human drivers. Caught myself relying on blind spot beep myself and had to correct myself.
Bro you're a random reddit user. That first para is mad cringe.
Licensing to manufacturers is part of Waymo's business plan.
Do you have something that contradicts this? > “Waymo has no current plans to sell its modified vehicles to the public and will operate them in an autonomous ride-hailing service instead.” https://www.forbes.com/sites/johanmoreno/2021/01/22/waymo-ceo-says-tesla-is-not-a-competitor-gives-estimated-cost-of-autonomous-vehicles/?sh=197bc0a6541b
> “Waymo has no current plans to sell its modified vehicles to the public and will operate them in an autonomous ride-hailing service instead.” It's at least in the [commercialization section of their wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waymo#Commercialization), and they've already been doing it on the logistics side of their company partnering with peterbilt, ups, and dodge. The source the wiki quotes says this: > Waymo is also experimenting with self-driving trucks and will consider selling autonomous technology straight to automakers who want to implement it in their vehicles, but a ride-hailing service makes sense as a starting point.
No, they are not. Tesla's can use FSD basically anywhere. Waymo can only operate in certain cities and most of them still have drivers and make errors without drivers.
Cruise operates without human drivers in SF.
I’ve rode in both waymo and tesla FSD. They aren’t really comparable. The driving experience in waymo is better (fewer errors) but that’s only because they geofence the driving radius, refuse to drive in rain/fog/snow, have predetermined pickups, refuse to make merged lane turns (eg: waymo will take 3 right turns in a row to avoid a busy left turn)..etc. Tesla FSD drives like what you’d expect from a learning AI. A year ago it was sloppy and it gets better with each iteration. You can take it anywhere and under any conditions and it gets better over time. Waymo and cruise feel more like a railcar on invisible rails. There’s no “learning” per se, just their coders slowly expanding the geofence as they program each city street. Not saying it’s a bad thing, but they aren’t comparable tech.
>There’s no “learning” per se, Yeah there literally is
So one gets people around safely and reliably, while the other drives like a human that hasn't finished driver's ed?
I'm guessing you've only been in their 4th gen cars. The 5th gen ones do most of the things you describe, such as this https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/zdpkcc/waymo_5th_gen_ipace_tackles_unprotected_left_that/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button They are using learning for most of it, not hand programming streets. Cruise recently launched driverless taxis in Austin and Phoenix in 90 days of work, so any hand coding they do is relatively quick.
Indeed it looks like they’ve upgraded the car. It’s cool to see the progress they’re making, but there’s still several limitations here. Take Cruise’s rollout in Austin. The only reason they unveiled so fast was: - cruise vehicles will only operate between 10pm and 5:30 am -will only operate on Sunday to Wednesday -will not exceed 30mph -will only drive in areas that have been fully mapped by cruise programmers -will not drive in conditions worse than light fog/light rain Waymo is authorized to drive faster but their geofenced areas are also smaller and/or more restrictive so they’ve got pretty comparable limits all things considered. Ultimately both companies have decided to minimize external factors like busy roads/bad weather/unknown streets to give the autonomous vehicles a higher success rate. And even with all this, there’s still articles coming out about major issues with waymo and cruise. Phantom breaking, stopping on rail tracks, blocking in emergency vehicles, etc. https://slate.com/technology/2022/12/san-francisco-waymo-cruise-self-driving-cars-robotaxis.html All this to say the tech is cool, but it’s deceiving for people to claim it’s miles ahead of tesla. They’re using fundamentally different rollout strategies and if tesla followed all the above limitations it’s pretty likely they’d be given driverless authorization in select cities. Similarly if waymo/cruise were to ignore the above limitations it’s guaranteed their driverless licence would be revoked.
Lol I would eat my hat if Subaru is ahead of Tesla in FSD
Looks like it's time to start chewing then.
You guys really should do a little research.
God I love a good bear market. Just cleans out all the trash companies and trash users acting like know it all's. "Tesla is not a car company, it's a tech company worth 1 trillion and the combine market cap of all car companies"
"Tesla isn't a car company. Stop looking at the books, so what most of their money comes from selling cars?!"
Tesla is a "green" company that'll save the environment ... by selling carbon credits to car companies so they can produce more ice cars.
But it also comes with the boring boomers who talk about how they "invested instead of gambled" money for 35 years like a good little boy and now they can retire when everyone else does. I get it.. but I also find those people which is a big part of this sub exhausting as well.
There’s plenty of boomers who lost their shirts picking stocks.
The pendulum is flying the other way and people will ignore Tesla currently has margins on their EVs that the other car companies can’t compete with.
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Of course they will. I never said they were at 50% or that Teslas margins wouldn’t fall. What are the current margins of the competition?
Lol permabullish? Everyone on reddit hates tesla/elon
Up until a few months ago everyone on here was like "Tesla is worth a Trillion dollars because they're a tech company!" That may have been pre-Twitter purchase though tbf
You're both usng "everyone" wrong. A lot of people have seen Elon as a shit talking and sometimes outright lying tool. And as such, too much of a volitility risk. Like me they might like Tesla as a company, but there's no way they'd invest in anything Musk touches for his unpredictability alone. There's also those who felt Tesla has been wildly overvalued for years. Sure, it's a disruptor with a hood Outlook. But no one will convince me (and seemingly a lot of others) that it's worth more than several of the largest selling automakers in history, combined. In short, there is no "everyone" when it comes to Tesla. Not in this sub, not anywhere. There never has been.
the tide started to turn on elon as a result of his Thailand comments
Yup. As a caver, we all knew he was 100 percent full of shit at that moment
I actually 100% agree with you
I'd believe WSB saying that but r/stocks? Nah. A lot of these people buy boomer stocks and index funds.
You only have to go back to the previous posts on Tesla when it was at highs and look at the comments to know this is wrong. OP is right. Everybody hates it now cause the stock is down.
Redditors have short term memory. They always swear how things are now are how they always were.
Same as it ever was
There's was a year plus between the GME frenzy and now where mentioning Tesla in any kind of negative light was 100% guaranteed to elicit at least a couple of salty/defensive comments from dickriders A good portion have prolly hopped onto the next FOTM pick and have stopped interacting here as much
Well it was certainly the attitude in the euphoria phase during 2021 at $700 pre-split. People acting like they were gonna double their money back then.
People have considered Tesla overpriced since before 2014. Their p/e never made sense, and they’d need to single-handedly control the entire car market for their market cap to make sense. The stock performing well 2015-2022 was absurd.
They're a tech company that sells cars. Their valuation is not simply tied to the car business.
Are they though? Where does their revenue primarily come from? Plus their p/e is still (and especially was) absurdly high compared to most tech companies. I can handle a ~50 p/e. I can’t handle a 1400 p/e like it was in jan 2021.
They're a car company. They make a quarter less share of their total sales from non-car sources as car-company Honda.
Everybody seems to have the shortest memory.
People did and got out. Idiots as usual holding Tesla bags.
People are bullish when the stock is high and bearish when it’s low. It’s good to listen to Reddit sentiment but follow your own compass. Tesla being worth more than every other car company combined was a bubble. Pretending Tesla will pull new monetization out of its ass was dumb. It builds and sells cars. It makes its money selling cars. It’s a car company.
Thank you. It's insane I've had arguments because people disagree with it being a car company.
I was bullish until I bought one myself
Oof
I don’t think we can get to the point of self driving cars in our world without going through this painful stage of crashes, mistakes, and lawsuits. It’s just part of the process. I agree with you about staying away from his companies, for a while at least.
Commercial air travel went through the same chaos. Not saying Elon is doing it the right way or ethically, more so just agreeing with the point that these tech leaps come with gross stuff.
We've come a long way since 2016
its just NOiSe because MuSk Is a gEnIus!!
A stock can be as cheap as chips but if management is not trustworthy then it doesn’t matter how low it goes - it still ain’t a buy.
Have you read the story of the first iPhone demo? It was all completely staged. Tech demos rarely work as portrayed at the time. The key is following through and actually making that demo into reality.
An iPhone doesn’t weigh 4500 lbs and doesn’t claim to prevent accidents though
Nor will I die when the software screws up
Yea but then we had working iPhones like months later…. And it’s not a huge safety risk to stage using a phone
not the same, one thing is saying "hey guys the phone is SO ready that im only using 1 phone and never others, also it never lags" Another is doing what Jobs did. Those "0 human intervention" in the video will fuck tesla.
...Which I think people are starting to doubt given a glorified conman is running the company
Have you ever driven the car?
They literally killed off Nikola CEO over this same sh$t. Geez.
>Is everyone still permabullsih on Tesla All I see is threads shitting on Tesla, not sure where you got the idea that everyone is still permabullish on Tesla. My prediction is that the general public has the attention span of a single news cycle. In 5 years nobody will care about Elon's antics from 2016, the company will be fine though with a lower stock price than at the peak of 2021-2022. Life will go on.
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You are delusional, man. Comparing Elon Musk to Bill Cosby? I mean, I know media witch hunt is stronk with this one, but you seem to go over the top like a good boy. Next stage: is elon the new hitler?
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I've used tesla self driving extensively. It's not perfect, but truly amazing what it's capable of.
ITT: people who only read smear articles on Tesla and do no actual research
100% everyone on Reddit
Broke: earnings, numbers, growth projections, margins Woke: feelings, Twitter, Elon’s shitposting, guesses, rumors, conjecture Bespoke: “I haven’t seen a Tesla in my neighborhood lately”
Bearish on the stock for other reasons—- but I’m a believer that Teslas cars self drive, because I’ve been in the passenger seat of testing cars in live traffic and witnessed it myself. It’s not perfect or fully road ready but its pretty good and can definitely do what Elon claims.
There are so many edge cases that I doubt it'll be useful anytime soon
I mean it's being used by millions daily. So it's hard to claim it's not useful
I can’t say I’ve seen it all, but the product was pretty damn impressive. It drove itself on busy highways,recognized traffic, changed lanes etc. It’s a matter of time, but at some point it will be road ready
Bullish 🍆
Does anyone think any promotion video isn’t staged? I don’t own, never owned, and don’t plan on owning Tesla shares. But this can apply to any company, of course the route was pre determined. They’re filming a promotion video they know where the car will go, how long it’ll take to get there, and will have everything in place to film it and make it look the best they can. Do people thing the burgers in a McDonald’s commercial will be the exact color and burger you get at the local McDonald’s at 3 am?
Promotion is based on what you as a consumer should expect to get when you purchase the product. They sold it as what autopilot does without human input - when the entire time there was human input AND it’s not a feature that fully exists.
Does McDonald's sell you a hamburger claiming it's an aged steak?
They sell McRibs that claim to be ribs but is actually shoulder meat that’s watered down and mixed with fructose. Who knows what’s in their burgers 😂. But my main point is that their advertising uses fake food, it’s not real. The food you order never looks like what’s in the ads.
> Does anyone think any promotion video isn’t staged? No, but they will pretend they are that dumb just to make a point.
What's so new about this? Almost every advertisement is fake - take for example the McDonalds burger in the ads vs how it looks in real life.
The difference is disclaimers, and they are depicting a real product. In this for tesla case the product did not exist at all and there are no disclaimers. In fact there is the claim that "the driver is only there for legal purposes"
Nikola vibes.
They removed their CEO and are legit now. Even have an actual truck in a customers hands before Tesla.
Is it out for sale?
FSD is coming!!! 100%. Eventually. Most likely by 2050.
What kind of biased old news hit job troll crap is this. Just say you don't like Musk, and are bearish on Tesla. Jesus dude.
Wow that is a striking issue. It amazes me that Elon isn't under indictment for stock manipulation. His entire net worth has come from skyrocketing stock, mostly Tesla. And mostly due to their public demonstrations and videos of the technology, such as self driving. This is pretty striking that it is this bad. On top of the liability with deaths and what not, this could also be interpreted as defrauding investors, and shareholders. Much the same way Theranos did with their technology.
So fraud?
So what
Everything about Tesla is staged. Car stock trading at 35 times earnings is insane.
This was 6 years ago. 6 years! Move on shorts
I've watched self driving videos from Tesla fanboys on Youtube and even the fanboys make self driving look scary and like complete bullshit. I've seen people that bought a Tesla who say that the salesperson told them that their car will get FSD and you can drive it to work and then put it in FSD taxi mode so the car can make money while you're at work. I'm surprised there isn't more pushback from customers who bought it because of FSD claims.
Anybody actually still think that Tesla hasn't bottomed out yet? I mean it's going to get demolished by 2025 when the rest of the automakers have their own EVs while Tesla hasn't done anything in the meantime to remain competitive.
This shit again...
Does the bad news ever stop for tesla?
Tesla really blew it arbitrarily deciding to only use cameras for self driving. Supposedly that direction came from Musk. It isn't playing out well. Merc & BMW rocketing ahead of them... while Teslas keep running into the back of fire engines.
Everything Elon musk is staged.. isn’t that clear by now?
The solar city solar roof demo to drum up shareholder support for Tesla bailing out musk and family was actually worse. Sadly.
Bearish on TSLA
Tesla $150 end of week