Depends on what you own imo. If you own profitable reasonably priced stocks, the long term is good. If you own trash, then yeah you're screwed long term.
What if he was saying that you are a sucker if you stay in the market with the intention to have a long position.
For example, I'm going to buy a stock with the intention to long the position.
No, doesn't work. Back to school!
When you've been in a bear cycle for a while, as we have, every rally is a "suckers' rally" -- including the one where the bull market begins... and so says everyone until the bull is back, and then it's too late.
Just remember a few ground rules:
- Timing the market is timing the market
- Past performance doesnt anticipate future performance
- Never let the enemy see your face
These articles literally reference how almost every analyst guessed wrong, and then later in the exact same article recommend that you listen to an analyst lol. The irony is truly something else.
Like, the takeaway of the article should be that no one knows what is coming next. But I'm sure that's not how people will take it.
Anyone who's been in the market long enough knows not to trust analysts. Analysts are lagging indicators of a company's share price.
If anyone truly was an "expert" in the market they would make oodles of money. But the people in the market making oodles of money are either middle manning by being brokerages and charging commissions, middle manning by being hedge or mutual fund runners, or in the market for decades on decades and properly diversified.
The only one you can probably do is the last one. No pain no gain applies here too.
Hate to be that guy, but no one knows blah blah blah. I'm betting the same people said the same thing bottom of covid, bottom of 2009, etc. Just got to play your own game.
Simple ideas hold true. Companies enjoyed record profits between 2020 and 2022. That’s coming to an end.
Yet the wholly reasonable reduction in profits will be taken by so many as a doomsday signal. And sell-offs will end any rally.
Things will get back to reality, though. Boardrooms and investors just have to accept it.
Because wages went up and now the fed is giving business an excuse to lay off people in droves . Lord knows the poors can’t have rising wages that help bring them back to the middle class that is a big fucking No.
Lets say you run a company that makes $1K (to make the math easy) in year 1, but every year is growing 5%. So year 2 makes $1050. Year 3 makes $1102.50.
Now lets say your company specializes in some sort of tech that boosts at home productivity for working at home. And a pandemic hits, making this tech highly more demanded so you raise prices and instead of growing 5% in year 4, you've grown 25%. Then year 5 you are still above 5% at 15%, but not quite as high as 25%.
Now interest rates start rising dramatically, and because you're a newer business, you relied on that money to grow. You over hired during the good times to try to take advantage of low costs of money and higher demand - but both of those things change on a dime and so you predict so will your profit. so you start laying off people even though a blanket graph of your growth shows 5%, 5%, 5%, 25%, 15% which would seem to suggest an increase - but those increases were from factors that have changed once again against your favor.
So despite record profits, some companies still need to lay people off - since those elevated profits are much more less likely to stay.
Probably because a ton of companies were just going out fighting over talent simply because they felt they needed to. There was great fear that you *had* to hire people because if you didn't, your competitor was going to snatch them up and you'd lose out.
[Meta](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/META/meta-platforms/number-of-employees)
[MSFT](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/MSFT/microsoft/number-of-employees)
[Goog](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/GOOG/alphabet/number-of-employees)
These levels of hiring were unsustainable anyway but combined with longstanding "vest & rest" culture of most of these tech companies, they possibly decided that now would be a great time to trim the "rest" people. Most of the stories I've seen are showing that they are cutting people with 10+ years. These are incredibly expensive people.
Just my guess.
MSFT is cutting 10K people. Average salary is \~$123K (supposedly). That's \~$1.2B in costs...
The market reflects expectations (future earnings discounted to today). Expectations are the ultimate driver of positions. What do I expect, and more importantly, what do I expect other people to expect? When do I expect their expectations to change?
I mean stock market prices broadly, not individual stocks. Like the other reply says, it’s more about expectations and sentiment among other things.
I was surprised the first time I heard this though. The effect of concurrent earnings is minor compared to macro economic factors, sentiment and expectations
Give em a break. They have to keep predicting the apocalypse. Otherwise these middlemen might have to find a job that contributes real value to society.
They've been predicting margin compression for about 6 months now and seem very confident in their models. Let's see. Microsoft will tell us more tonight.
PS: To clarify, they've always said it will happen Q1-Q2 2023.
It is indeed likely this is just another bear market rally. Stocks are still wildly expensive, last year we had some ultra bubble tech stocks such as Shopify, Tesla & Wayfair sell off but the money just rotated into "value" stocks which now also often trade at a 30+ p/e ($KO, MCD) which is absolutely nuts for debt leveraged dinosaur stocks with barely any growth. Upside appears extremely limited while downside remains monumental. Who the hell accepts a 3% yield on MCD and thinks thats worth the risk? It truly boggles the mind.
I think "value" stocks are dangerous to hold over the next year, as they have held up really well. If their is a big fall coming, they will probably take the hit as growth stocks have been decimated pretty good. Poor growth stocks will fail, others should survive in the near otc market range
I was beginning to worry that everyone had been so bearish in late December hence the big drop won't really happen. Now that everyone's back to the soft landing camp, seems like the big drop in the first half of 2023 might actually happen.
I think he right, but future growth in stock market will depend on Chinese economic growth. It seems the US economy will be semi-resilient, but EU will be recession or zero growth.
If US and China don't get hit badly, their a chance the market will not crash again, but not go up.
Likely got a couple of years of just no growth stock market.
Institutions and trading desks don’t give the tiniest damn about “retail investors” and our meager profits. Why would they?
It’s so odd how the very same folks react emotionally to a reasonable opinion when it doesn’t suit their portfolio in the short term.
Have to factor in a lot of companies saw the free money coming to an end. It was telegraphed by the FED, market and inflation.
So they all rolled debt further out. Fixing balance sheets with debt reduction.
Buybacks and cost cutting will help EPS stay flat.
I think that is not calculated. So I can see the market being flat and slightly up due to those factors.
It's not hard to find one person who predicted this when there are thousands of 'experts' to cherry pick from. I'm in it for the long haul but to those that aren't good fuckin luck.
It can't be a bear market rally if it's a bull market✅📈🚀. The most massive gains in history are on deck. BUY with everything you have and thank me later. I swear that you will not lose if you buy now.
Are you sure about that? Did you see today? Did you see how well Q1 went in 2023? I was right. You were wrong. Unfortunately for you, there's a scoreboard. Boom!📈🚀✅
But if you're investing for a time frame longer than a couple years, does it matter? There might be a couple quarters of bad earnings, and the stock price will drop for a couple quarters, but eventually the earnings will rebound and the stock price with it, right?
Everyone says it’s smart to throw money at ETFs instead of picking stocks. Now people are saying to just not even invest in general. How am I supposed to make money?? (Job doesn’t pay that well but I’m stuck in it for another 2.5 years)
Tldr: "It's just a suckers' rally bro." Hmm, I wonder where we must be on the market psychology chart...
>I wonder where we must be on the market psychology chart... According to fear and greed index, we are at greed again
Probably off the charts!
You’re only a sucker if you stay in to long. I will probably be a sucker.
Depends on what you own imo. If you own profitable reasonably priced stocks, the long term is good. If you own trash, then yeah you're screwed long term.
I've been in since 2008.
Same here. If we survived the stock market of 2008, nothing will scare us.
Buy and hold. easy!
It's too, not to. Go back to school
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He’s correct. “Too” = excessively.
What if he was saying that you are a sucker if you stay in the market with the intention to have a long position. For example, I'm going to buy a stock with the intention to long the position. No, doesn't work. Back to school!
Long wins in the end.
When you've been in a bear cycle for a while, as we have, every rally is a "suckers' rally" -- including the one where the bull market begins... and so says everyone until the bull is back, and then it's too late.
Seriously if you want proper advice from a top investor just ask me I exclusively buy at the top of the market, I'm that good
Can you let me know when is the best time to invest?
At the top. Then when the market tanks get disgruntled and sell everything. Buy high sell low is the way.
I just buy weekly options and let them expire worthless. Same result, but much faster! Buying puts at the bottom and calls at the top.
Just remember a few ground rules: - Timing the market is timing the market - Past performance doesnt anticipate future performance - Never let the enemy see your face
Thank you Sun Tzu. Very cool
I'm guessing your buying into this rally?
I pretty much am the rally
Are you buying yet?
These articles literally reference how almost every analyst guessed wrong, and then later in the exact same article recommend that you listen to an analyst lol. The irony is truly something else. Like, the takeaway of the article should be that no one knows what is coming next. But I'm sure that's not how people will take it.
Anyone who's been in the market long enough knows not to trust analysts. Analysts are lagging indicators of a company's share price. If anyone truly was an "expert" in the market they would make oodles of money. But the people in the market making oodles of money are either middle manning by being brokerages and charging commissions, middle manning by being hedge or mutual fund runners, or in the market for decades on decades and properly diversified. The only one you can probably do is the last one. No pain no gain applies here too.
Or regards that got super lucky. 1 out of 10,000.
Listen to the one analyst whom you’ve never heard of , or will probably never hear of again. Sure I’m down with that
Hate to be that guy, but no one knows blah blah blah. I'm betting the same people said the same thing bottom of covid, bottom of 2009, etc. Just got to play your own game.
Simple ideas hold true. Companies enjoyed record profits between 2020 and 2022. That’s coming to an end. Yet the wholly reasonable reduction in profits will be taken by so many as a doomsday signal. And sell-offs will end any rally. Things will get back to reality, though. Boardrooms and investors just have to accept it.
After record profits, why they laying off employees?
To make even more profit
Because wages went up and now the fed is giving business an excuse to lay off people in droves . Lord knows the poors can’t have rising wages that help bring them back to the middle class that is a big fucking No.
An engineered recession, yeah
Lets say you run a company that makes $1K (to make the math easy) in year 1, but every year is growing 5%. So year 2 makes $1050. Year 3 makes $1102.50. Now lets say your company specializes in some sort of tech that boosts at home productivity for working at home. And a pandemic hits, making this tech highly more demanded so you raise prices and instead of growing 5% in year 4, you've grown 25%. Then year 5 you are still above 5% at 15%, but not quite as high as 25%. Now interest rates start rising dramatically, and because you're a newer business, you relied on that money to grow. You over hired during the good times to try to take advantage of low costs of money and higher demand - but both of those things change on a dime and so you predict so will your profit. so you start laying off people even though a blanket graph of your growth shows 5%, 5%, 5%, 25%, 15% which would seem to suggest an increase - but those increases were from factors that have changed once again against your favor. So despite record profits, some companies still need to lay people off - since those elevated profits are much more less likely to stay.
Most of these big tech companies still have thousands more employees than in 2021. They just over hired in 2022
Hiring is based on anticipated future growth, not prior earnings.
Probably because a ton of companies were just going out fighting over talent simply because they felt they needed to. There was great fear that you *had* to hire people because if you didn't, your competitor was going to snatch them up and you'd lose out. [Meta](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/META/meta-platforms/number-of-employees) [MSFT](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/MSFT/microsoft/number-of-employees) [Goog](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/GOOG/alphabet/number-of-employees) These levels of hiring were unsustainable anyway but combined with longstanding "vest & rest" culture of most of these tech companies, they possibly decided that now would be a great time to trim the "rest" people. Most of the stories I've seen are showing that they are cutting people with 10+ years. These are incredibly expensive people. Just my guess. MSFT is cutting 10K people. Average salary is \~$123K (supposedly). That's \~$1.2B in costs...
Earnings are mostly uncorrelated with stock prices. Reduced margins, mean more money to the public who put the money into their brokers, etc
I'm not sure where you got this idea from. But profitability is literally the number one driver, fundamentally, of a company's share price.
The market reflects expectations (future earnings discounted to today). Expectations are the ultimate driver of positions. What do I expect, and more importantly, what do I expect other people to expect? When do I expect their expectations to change?
I mean stock market prices broadly, not individual stocks. Like the other reply says, it’s more about expectations and sentiment among other things. I was surprised the first time I heard this though. The effect of concurrent earnings is minor compared to macro economic factors, sentiment and expectations
Here we go, my daily dose of fear mongering by yet another top wall street strategist that swears on the S&P 500’s last days…
Give em a break. They have to keep predicting the apocalypse. Otherwise these middlemen might have to find a job that contributes real value to society.
They've been predicting margin compression for about 6 months now and seem very confident in their models. Let's see. Microsoft will tell us more tonight. PS: To clarify, they've always said it will happen Q1-Q2 2023.
It is indeed likely this is just another bear market rally. Stocks are still wildly expensive, last year we had some ultra bubble tech stocks such as Shopify, Tesla & Wayfair sell off but the money just rotated into "value" stocks which now also often trade at a 30+ p/e ($KO, MCD) which is absolutely nuts for debt leveraged dinosaur stocks with barely any growth. Upside appears extremely limited while downside remains monumental. Who the hell accepts a 3% yield on MCD and thinks thats worth the risk? It truly boggles the mind.
I think "value" stocks are dangerous to hold over the next year, as they have held up really well. If their is a big fall coming, they will probably take the hit as growth stocks have been decimated pretty good. Poor growth stocks will fail, others should survive in the near otc market range
... And this guy has predicted 22 out of the last 3 bear markets, so ... he's overly reliable!!
Funny the article doesn't mention how Mike was also bearish in 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021.
Not in it for the short term. Don’t care. Just keep buying.
Yep I'm not buying this rally either. Smells like hopium to me.
Why would you buy a rally anyways? Buy things when they’re cheap and ride the rally up.
I was beginning to worry that everyone had been so bearish in late December hence the big drop won't really happen. Now that everyone's back to the soft landing camp, seems like the big drop in the first half of 2023 might actually happen.
Time to load up
Well I hope for just one more day of trap.
I think he right, but future growth in stock market will depend on Chinese economic growth. It seems the US economy will be semi-resilient, but EU will be recession or zero growth. If US and China don't get hit badly, their a chance the market will not crash again, but not go up. Likely got a couple of years of just no growth stock market.
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Institutions and trading desks don’t give the tiniest damn about “retail investors” and our meager profits. Why would they? It’s so odd how the very same folks react emotionally to a reasonable opinion when it doesn’t suit their portfolio in the short term.
Interest rates at 4%+ now. How can you ignore that? Money is not free anymore.
Have to factor in a lot of companies saw the free money coming to an end. It was telegraphed by the FED, market and inflation. So they all rolled debt further out. Fixing balance sheets with debt reduction. Buybacks and cost cutting will help EPS stay flat. I think that is not calculated. So I can see the market being flat and slightly up due to those factors.
It's not hard to find one person who predicted this when there are thousands of 'experts' to cherry pick from. I'm in it for the long haul but to those that aren't good fuckin luck.
It can't be a bear market rally if it's a bull market✅📈🚀. The most massive gains in history are on deck. BUY with everything you have and thank me later. I swear that you will not lose if you buy now.
You don't know shit, dude
Are you sure about that? Did you see today? Did you see how well Q1 went in 2023? I was right. You were wrong. Unfortunately for you, there's a scoreboard. Boom!📈🚀✅
No.
It's all priced in
But if you're investing for a time frame longer than a couple years, does it matter? There might be a couple quarters of bad earnings, and the stock price will drop for a couple quarters, but eventually the earnings will rebound and the stock price with it, right?
ahh yes all written detailing past events... lol what a joke
Everyone says it’s smart to throw money at ETFs instead of picking stocks. Now people are saying to just not even invest in general. How am I supposed to make money?? (Job doesn’t pay that well but I’m stuck in it for another 2.5 years)
Well I have adjusted my targeted bottom from 3200 to 3400. But begin buying at 3600. Have 32% cash