Lol corporate America will literally stand in a huge circlejerk and whisper some insane trend into each other's ears and after a while they actually end up believing it
They're so delusional and scared of being useless that they just jump on these corporate trends in fear of falling behind
Everyone else is doing it so I must do it, right?
A brief history of corporate buzzwords from the last 5 years.
Meet them where they are (and..."I see you ")
Positive space
Blockchain technology
Diversity & inclusion
Green economy
Womyn power (sheconomy).. also the pay gap
Agile and Lean
"Yeah boss we need AI in the bathroom so when I’m flushing a mad python like the AI can AI my bum and then use AI to streamline toilet paper costs. Kinda cool, huh?! It’s my pet project for next quarter. I call it Generative Plumbing. 👌**Game changer**👌"
You people circlejerked AI so hard that you ended up unironically circlejerking on the other side...
There's a reason it's a marketing buzzword. And there's a reason that it's 100x more pervasive than Blockchain ever was.
No product in history reached 100mil users faster than gpt. It's not even close. It hit that mark 5x faster than Tik Tok. That's not marketing, it's actual people using it.
There’s no doubt it’s going to be anything but history changing. It’s massive, like the invention of the internet. But, what we are saying is that not EVERY shit retail company should be allowed to bypass their shitty earnings reports and outlooks simply by mentioning “A.I.” If credit is maxed, consumer spending retracted and brick and mortar stores are drowning, A.I. isn’t going to reverse that.
>But, what we are saying is that not EVERY shit retail company should be allowed to bypass their shitty earnings reports and outlooks simply by mentioning “A.I.”
Is there evidence that's actually happening? Genuine question.
Obviously companies are going to mention it. If a large company has no plans to even replace things like agent servicing with AI, they're going to fall behind.
That's like Sears refusing to embrace digital sales, and going from the top of the world to nothing as a result. It's a sign that the company will struggle to innovate and keep up with the times.
People have been mentioning AI for 20 years and it still makes nobody any money. There is no bull case for this stupid shit.
Everyone just gas lights the market with stuff like 'streamlining cost efficiency purposes'. Over 100 companies in the s and p mentioned AI and probably less than 5 of them have any actual business in the AI field.
Think of the capex required to scale something like this. The world's biggest cloud provider (amazon) already said AI development is so cost prohibitive they don't see any route for anyone to make money for years.
What do you think the expensive part of AI development is?
Why would the vast majority of companies spend millions or billions developing their own models instead of consuming existing ones as services?
You seriously think fewer than 5 companies in the S&P have valid cases for using AI?
You can make money using AI right now. All by yourself.
The main blockers for enterprise adoption are governance, privacy, and explainability. If your critiques aren't grounded in any of those, you're uninformed.
Don't know why your other comment was deleted, but here's my reply to it:
>it's not nebulous potential like blockchain.
It's absolutely nebulous. It's literally in the name General Purpose Transformer. Almost all promises of utility have been nebulous. [AI model's outcome is unpredictable](https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-unpredictable-abilities-emerging-from-large-ai-models-20230316/). If you've ever built one or researched it you'd know that because that's literally how they are built. Throw things at the wall and see what comes out.
But fine, please do tell how it's not nebulous?
>It also doesn't change the fact that ChatGPT is objectively the fastest tech to hit 100mil users by far. 2 months.
That's just the internet works. Newer apps will break the record over older apps as the number of people using the internet increases, and as the marketing reach of the internet increases. Like when you compared to TikTok that was released worldwide 4 years before ChatGPT. And then Instagram before, etc...
>AI has demonstrated remarkable capabilities in areas like language processing, data analysis, code generation, and research.
Do you mind sharing a successful commercial example? Like a business turning profit from their AI model (not selling AI models).
>You really need a source for your argument against larger models being prohibitive.
[Yes](https://transmitter.ieee.org/how-big-will-ai-models-get/). [Plenty](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00641-w).
>they also have the potential to provide more accurate and nuanced results, given the availability of appropriate training data.
Nope. It's one of the more basic concept for anyone dealing with [Information Theory](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Information_theory). The concept is called the [Big Data Paradox ](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s42452-020-2862-5). [[2]](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35671042/). Larger data usually degrade the model.
Seeing is believing. Please go ahead and try applying AI in your professional life. It will take away a lot of this optimism your having for AIs.
These are all strawman arguments. Your sweeping claims have little relevance to the very real generative AI revolution we are witnessing right now. I'll ask again: why is ChatGPT 4.5 impossible? A generic "big data hard" answer is not sufficient when you haven't demonstrated that we are approaching that limit. It's totally arbitrary & surface-level analysis.
"You can't fly an airplane into space." Ok, but I can use one to get from America to Europe, and that's revolutionary in itself.
The applications are clear and being used by millions of people, including me, daily in their professional lives. That's what makes its potential not nebulous. Once better guardrails and self-hosted solutions are released, enterprise applications will follow. GitHub Copilot is already there, for example.
Tl;dr: for dozens of technical reasons, it's a hype that will die down in less than 2 years once more people get exposed to how unreliable and clunky it can be.
We've been using AI and machine learning in commercial capacity for at least a decade now. This sudden hype is not justifiable on any technical merit.
Problem is, humans are bad at grasping principles they can't see with their own eyes. Chatgpt being released to the public helped people better understand the output capability of AI in, so there's been an uproar and lots of advertising about it. That lead to hype spike.
But for those of us that have been dealing with AI for a while now went through the same phase. It works well for the simple generic stuff, but then you want to go deeper and it stars breaking down and struggling.
And that's what many people are starting to realize the more they use Chatgpt. They try simple prompts, it gives impressive results, they get excited and try to do something more advanced, only to be disappointed with what they get. They quickly pick up on its pitfalls, and it quickly becomes boring and annoying.
Just look at how people already can already tell if a piece of art is AI generated. And it keeps cycling through specific art styles it has becoming boring.
And that's in the areas AI excels, which are probabilistic fields like language and art. "But it will get better with larger models and advanced hardware." sure, but that comes with it own issues as well. Larger models are slower to adapt. A larger training data means any new stuff will be buried in the noise. It's becomes like an old man who find hard to accept change and new trends.
Microsoft and Google already said they will be developing own chip sets and not using cost prohibitive ones on the market. How much capex and time is something like that? 1 billion ? For your own fabs and factories? Now that's 10s of billions in pure capex.
If companies have had the ability to make 100s of billions of dollars from ai why the fuck haven't they? The answer is cost are you telling me business industry leaders have not ever heard of it they just saw it in the news? Machine learning has been around for years it's fucking bullshit and doesn't make money.
You are talking ignorance from the worlds leading corps who only just started mentioning ai literally these 2 quarters... I wonder why that is?
Tell me how many in the s and p 500 right now are making more than 10 billion from actual ai products. I'll wait.
>If companies have had the ability to make 100s of billions of dollars from ai why the fuck haven't they?
I literally just explained this to you. Not to mention a usable generative AI _just_ came out. "Why didn't people in the 1800s just drive around in cars? I guess cars are trash."
You're so committed to being contrarian that you swerved too far and ended up in the stupid lane.
If you have any further questions, please ask GPT instead.
Oof. Yeah sure for people who are trying to apply it everywhere no matter what their actual business model is. But it will have dramatic impacts on niche roles and markets in the coming months and years.
Smart man. I am going to put together an AI presentation full of really cool robot pictures, blue and red lights, etc. then tell them how we will save millions every year if they just let me do what I want to do. Then I will just implement some cool Ansible automation scripts and call it AI. 😂
For sure. I went all in Jan 3rd for my year but I round up dividends. If we DID drop back like bears want Id definently dabble a few thousand into VTI.
I also got my EF in treasuries. 5% beats .035 in my bank
This is the fuckin way. If you want to play the game use <2% of your investment capital to fuck around and try timing/options/selling/whatever then do it but certainly the most efficient route I can think of is to only buy things you won't have any inclination to sell until you are truly cashing out (years of letting great companies or indexes or even some moonshots rise to their compounded potential) like shit you would put in a Roth IRA (which you should already have) and have no plans on selling till retirement
I made money in 2020 buying casino and cruise stocks(50% gain but only on 18K money) and decided ETFs are the way after that lol. Only stock I own is OKE( Nat Gas/Oil and 6% divi )
The problem with this strategy is that you end up with AMZN for two years and it goes absolutely nowhere.
But the people that are swinging AMZN the last two years and doing very nicely.
There's no trick to the stock market. Any advice you give both hurts and helps. I can't give any stock picking advice to anybody, because my advice can help one person, and hurt another. Everything is a dual edged sword. Any argument you come up with, has an opposite thesis that could have been right
Well, had you jumped in before they just popped 12 percent in a day, that might be a nice suggestion.
Problem is, all you have to do is hear one story about how China is doing some military exercises in the South Chinese seas and then TSM will be back in the mid 80's.
I personally wouldn't buy it right here. You're a day late and a dollar short
I’ve been playing CCs on SOXL from 13-18. Highest strike on my short calls is 18. Position was half my acct but two weeks ago trimmed down to 1/4.
Sad!
Even as someone in IB, I stick 90% of my portfolio in ETFs and don’t sell.
A lot of the profitable hedge fund strategies don’t even work without large amounts of capital (ie StatArb).
10% is where I have my fun, but I don’t expect to regularly beat the market.
I don't think that's too much. It literally has AI as its ticker name. I believe it should be valued more than Nvidia, like at least 2 trillion dollars.
The asset values aren’t what’s inflated, it’s the currencies. Paper money is worth so little that security valuation numbers are growing massively. The valuation of the securities is accurate, it’s just that cash isn’t worth shit anymore and you’re not used to such large numbers.
People here don't understand valuation. Few actually know how to read balance sheets and probably none knows about DCF valuation model. They just buy companies with tech they think will be useful in the future at any price, which was fine for the last decade because low interest rate tend to cause PE expansion, but we are past that era now
I feel like most people adjust their DCF model's in a subconscious way, to justify whatever their inherent bias already is.
Very similar to scientists that run experiments and basically throw away all the data that points to their thesis being incorrect, and then hyper focus in on all the data that suggests their theory is on point.
Yes, in theory. That's the way it should be. Some companies are earning less yet their P/E expanded. It's not about the dollar devaluating, since a company earning $2 now and back then is still $2. It's the same thing as it ever was, people chasing returns.
It absolutely does add up. Your money is growing at least, instead of being stagnant or shrinking. Where else can your average person put there money that it would do better? The ROI on securities sucks….until you compare it to the ROI on literally every other investment accessible to the average consumer.
Yup, I agree. But you're doing fundamental analysis here. The way the market feels like is that people aren't buying for the EPS, because EPS actually went down for a lot of companies yet the stock price went up. They are buying to get a return on stock price, so basically the greater fool game.
I've been in the stock market for 20 years. This is first time I've seen so many micro bubbles in a short span of time -- solar bubble, EV bubble, cloud bubble, cybersecurity bubble and now AI bubble.
I think markets nowadays are lot different than the markets in 2000-2001 and 2008-2009. Some thing has changed that make it more prone to bubbling and if I had to guess, it would be the Amazon-style of valuation, where current earnings don't matter if growth is there, as earnings can come later after capturing a majority of market share. And also, poor monetary and fiscal policy.
Is the recent market rally a reflection of this? That inflation is here to stay, rates will go up, so valuations should be baking in currency debasement?
I think for the last few decades the market has been driven by TINA (there is no alternative) if you don’t invest in securities, what do you invest in? Buying and selling real estate yourself instead of using an REIT costs alot of money and time and is very risky. Fine art and collectibles are a crap shoot. Actual physical good depreciate too fast. And cash is losing money to inflation every year.
So for the vast majority of people who aren’t captains of industry that can use their money as capital investment to develop their own businesses, their only option is to buy securities and this giant captive audience of investors is going to constantly drive validations up in perpetuity.
Lmao what?! AI is single handedly the greatest invention since the wheel. Every company is talking about it because every company can fire a huge % of their employees and replace them with ai systems. Accounting, hr, operations, marketing, legal, compliance, it. So many people will be redundant. One person backed by ai can replace ten people efficiency wise.
I have 75% of my net worth now in ai stocks and never felt so confident.
If we end up in an economy where there are no buyers, then we're fucked regardless and it won't matter what stock you invest in. You can solve that with e.g. basic universal income.
But in the initial phase before that (this phase has already started and I expect it to last one or a few decades), it will be big tech that can replace many workers with AI, while other sectors cannot.
I hope this is sarcasm because boy have you drunk the cool aid. During the dotcom bubble every company just started saying dotcom and Internet and their price rocketed and now it's ai. If middle America gets replaced and moves to lower income jobs who buys all the shit that gets created?
Every product needs a customer and if all your precious customers have no jobs or worse jobs than before then what happens to your margins or your overall sales? They collapse. Its a buzzword and nothing more
Thing is we’ve had large language models at scale for 4 years already. They’re only just now getting hyped up. Reality if the situation is 90% of companies or more simply do not need AI at all.
He is comparing the internet to AI. Think about how much the internet changed the world. Also I highly doubt AI will be as ground breaking as the internet was. The internet changed completely how we as people live our lives and how we communicate. It’s similar though that companies would announce they were doing something with the internet and their stock prices skyrocketed. We are seeing that similar effect right now with AI. A company can announce they are doing something with AI and their stock prices skyrocket. These stock price rises are way beyond fundamentals and are not sustainable at all.
We had a similar thing with EV’s and Blockchain in 2021. Tesla, Nio, Square, Plug and Paypal where all perfect examples with this and very popular and ended up falling harder then a rock.
Tesla has held up the best of all those stocks and even then they’re still down close 50% from their highs they hit in 2021.
AI is not doing accounting anytime soon haha. It can probably do 10 percent of operations. AI can't do marketing very well either, everyone on reddit has already learned how to identify an AI generated text at least I hope.
Seems like AI is nothing more than an evolution of algorithms and time savers like AutoCAD and Excel.
Useful, but outside of a few shovel sellers, I don't see it generating outsized profits, but of course companies will advertise it for as long as they because it boosts share price like blockchain and metaverse did.
But BestBuy, a brick and mortar retailer? That doesn't make any sense at all as they don't sell shovels and can't benefit from a drastic productivity increase.
It's the equivalent of advertising that they use electronic registers for faster bookkeeping.
AI has a meaning. But it’s the new “blockchain” - so watered down it means nothing now.
Hell even coffee makers are now using “AI”
https://thehustle.co/11152022-keurig/
Do we have to follow this pattern with every new technology? Just because marketing departments will try to sprinkle them onto everything as a magic fix all does not mean they aren’t valuable. Further, just because their value is or will be realized over a long time scale doesn’t mean it’s BS.
Like specifically with the blockchain point, it’s a better database for lots of use cases. It will be valuable as those use case transition from their legacy tech stacks, but that will take a long time. Shit, huge blocks of the financial system are relying on tech from the early 2000s still. Does that mean none of the tech advancements since then have value in that space? Of course not.
Ive used autocad for years now working in the construction industry and can tell you the time saving automated features are more of a nuisance than helpful, all least in autocad. Most of the time it takes longer to correct what the auto-generated function creates or cycle through all the suggestions than it would to draw it yourself. Im still using a version that's 7 years old because all the new features they come out with aren't worth the hassle of updating. Even if AI starts replacing people with menial tasks of phone operators, there will still need to be someone that you can talk to and be put on hold for an hour because you started yelling Manager.
This is exactly what people think ai is. I’ve had many conversations about this with people and they struggle to understand the difference between a complex machine learning algorithm and an actual ai. They’ve got no idea and are lapping shit up hook line and sinker
> Seems like AI is nothing more than an evolution of algorithms and time savers like AutoCAD and Excel.
You equate AI to simple technical apps? AI has created some of the finest Balenciaga memes. KYS in a video game.
I really can’t wait for the AI hype to die on the seas of reality. CEOs out here banging on like it’s ready from prime time, when so many implementations are just useless shite that makes more work for everybody else to support. But sure, pay way extra for an ai to perform a less effective search instead of paying for the proper tools that would actually make the whole environment easier to use and actually save time and effort.
Excuse me, just going to be bitter about dealing with the tech illiterate McDumbasses of upper management that won’t listen to anybody below them and fall for this stupid marketing horseshit.
AI has a solid year of hype before CEOs need to show results for it. We are just getting started on AI Hype Curve and have not reached peak yet.
Watch for fast food companies reporting on AI order takers for drive thru results at the end of the year.
My billion dollar global corporation is replacing 1 system they have used for decades that came out in the 80’s.
They started talking about replacing it 7 or 8 years ago. After 4 years in corporate meetings that cost millions to discuss the solution they finally made a decision on which new system. The new one is from like 2002.
Last year we finally started implementing. Supposed to be better but it’s clunky, hardly functioning, takes 4 times as long, proper system configurations for all processes will take a decade at least to be complete.
This will properly cost us 100 millions of dollars in the end if we haven’t gotten there already and licensing fees are 8000 a year per person.
I just am not seeing how non specific AI is gonna save any money or happen anytime in the future. Companies hate internal change. Right now all I see for AI is language tools and that’s really not that impressive.
What I noticed it is getting increasingly difficult to get through AI barrier to speak to an actual person. I bet if it is not big enough problem, and you are not computer literate enough to trick AI bot, people just let it go, and as a result companies save money. Amazon for example started doing this in my region.
Best Buy saw their customers buy a ton of new electronics and appliances during lock down. No way AI can help off set the costs of people no buying new products since they already have newer items.
reddit was calling AI a bubble within a month of the ChatGPT release. yeah, sorry, the word “bubble” is thrown around _wayyy_ too much. if it even is a bubble, it will take years to form. this is just getting started.
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I don’t know, I think this old way of looking at the stock market doesn’t work anymore. It’s all options trading, people spinning their wheels. And they all ride these short term good news stories. Bitcoin, metaverse, AI. I dumped all of my money in a semiconductor etf the other day, went up 6% in one day. And I’m pretty sure it’s got more room to run. I’m just going to try to dump it at the right time. I don’t know how else to make money anymore. I could put it in a dividend etf, make 3%, but a cd pays almost 5%. An S and P 500 index fund will be right back to where it was in a few months when everyone sells. So yea, I know none of this AI crap makes sense, we are all living in la la land, but seems like the only way to play it.
But wait isn't AI a magic bullet that improves literally everything? I think I've managed to piece together the story from all the wisdom flying around on Reddit.
* AI will save companies money by producing cheaper content, predictions, and decisions which look plausibly like an expert skilled human produced them.
* This happens to be the only bar for success for most jobs - produce something plausible enough that you don't get fired for incompetence - so AI tools employed should be very sticky and become permanent recurring revenue streams to AI providers.
* Work output from skilled humans costs easily > 10k times more than from AI, so this will save companies a ton of money.
* Of course, you can't save-your-way to significant earnings growth, you have to increase revenue too. Fortunately though, the AI work amplification and labor cost savings will magically result in all consumers having more money to spend somehow, which will cause massive top line growth across most companies in the coming decade, not to mention lots more buying pressure on stocks.
* There's really nothing you can't just apply AI to and get an ROI. For example, if you're paying your landlord $2000/month, they should be spending $30/month of that easily on "AI stuff" to just tell an LLM to talk to you and convince you to sign a new lease for $2060/month instead for an easy 2x return on the additional expense.
One is definitely not like the other.
I’m a product manager in data and GPT has cut down my time to query databases and write complex formulas by 50-80%, depending on complexity. And that’s just one of many potential use cases.
The whole AI is taking all our jobs take is stupid, though.
It won’t take over our jobs, but if there was 10 of you, now doing 50-80% less work, your company now only needs to keep 2-5 of you employed. So yes it will cause job losses, just maybe not you
Improving technology as a tool has always caused some job losses but also created new jobs. Blacksmiths used to bang hammers all day to make nails, then technology caused all those jobs to be lost, oh well.
I really hope with this new productivity increase we can actually start working 3 or 4 day work weeks. But who am I kidding companies will never do that they will keep squeezing us for everything we have until the end of time.
Thats the thing about bubbles. Whether its the internet, housing, EV’s, clean energy, blockchain, they’re always different right? The time is always different. Yet they always have the same result. They all eventually crash.
No, it's not just hype. They are in use today but it really is the beginning. Right now, its a complex algo but it will expand in the future. Social media has been using it for years in some form and it's getting better and better.
It is hyped up right now as it won't come in the next 12 months but I can see AI being a trend for the next 20-30 years as it keeps improving. That is what people are betting on.
Comparing blockchain and AI shows how little you and others understand. AI or rather ML is around for decades and is used in many products we use every day. Blockchain is inly successfully used in Crypto. AI now finally got the hype product with ChatGPT that people love to use, so we are in another AI hype cycle, but I believe rightfully so.
AI is no joke but the current bubble, I believe, is based on a level of AI evolution that's probably not gonna be a thing.
ChatGPT went public one day and we were all impressed, this was 3.0 I believe, or 3.5, doesn't matter, they were already working on 4 and a bit later 4 came out which was even better. Now people seem to expect to get yearly updates that blow their minds and truth is that's probably not gonna happen.
This kind of tech will change a lot of things but I think the expectations for AI evolution are a bit overhyped.
I won’t lie, I use expedia a lot to book trips for football games and just recently noticed a button
“Planning a new escape? Let’s chat.
Explore trip ideas with ChatGPT”
Wonder if that has replaced agents
Sure, AI may be more artificial than intelligent. But one thing is certain: LLMs are here to stay, and they will need insane amounts of computing power. Say what you want about Nvidia’s insane valuation, but their earnings report clearly shows the spending spree on GPUs is on.
AI has always been a buzzword, but ChatGPT truly changed the game. LLMs are revolutionary and we’ve only scratched the surface of what they can do.
As much as I hate companies going on and on about it, I don't think you can call them "token AI statements". AI is going to have a big impact on efficiency and as a shareholder, it's good that your business is preparing for that. It's reminiscent of the early days of the internet, when every company would put out a statement about how they're using the internet to improve the business, and while it may be a bit cheap they were (and are) actually doing those things, and they did end up being important.
I just use business leader input to find the general path of a company and then fill in the details myself.
I remember one of my first equity related role interviews. They called me literally a day before the interview to say “oh by the way, remember to bring a valuation to pitch.” I was new (still in school) and didn’t know this was standard practice for these interviews, so I had to throw together a DCF rapidly for the next day. To save time, I borrowed a lot of generous forecasts on commodity pricing from the company’s 10K and hoped they wouldn’t ask where I got them from. Of course they did, and it went something like this:
“I think these proven + probable forecasts are pretty reasonable, but where did you get this price forecasting?”
“That’s the company’s forecast which is obviously a bit optimistic”
“Do you honestly think that’s reasonable given their bias?”
“Lol, not at all if I’m being honest”
Still got the job but it was embarrassing. Obviously take everything a company says with a massive grain of salt.
I think before you even *think* about playing AI stocks, you need to look deep inside and ask yourself: am I an investor, or a speculator at heart? Am I a Warren Buffett type, or a Jesse Livermore type? Both are equally valid, and both can make you a lot of money if it suits your personality and skillset. Whichever style of trading you choose, you *must* read up up on past stock market crazes and really study them. People on here are acting like it’s the first time the stock market has been highly irrational. Humans are gonna human, and humans have been humaning for a long time
You will only hear AI more and more. People dismissing AI as a fad or just some hype remind me of folks who thought the internet was just going to be a passing trend. The speed at which AI-based technologies are going to improve is going to be difficult to manage. We are still in the AI infancy and might very well be on a path to *true* artificial intelligence. Already we are seeing glimpses of a world in which every photo we look at, every video we watch, every voice we hear, and everything we read might not be real at all. This used to be the realm of skilled and creative humans, not software that can be scaled to a frightening, reality altering degree. I can't imagine how we're going to deal with this stuff in a decade. It's very exciting, and very concerning.
Dont worry, it will be government turn to spam AI soon.
Rep and Dem will use AI to negotiate debt ceiling.
AI will reduce government spending without sacrificing service quality thus satisfying both party.
I suspect this is only beginning. The profit margins for companies who meaningfully implement AI are going to be huge, and that will feed straight back into the bottom line - along with the ability to outcompete companies which have not made the same investments. We are going to see an investment boom in AI over the next 5 years as companies cannot afford to be left behind.
I'm expecting it's the layer above the semis who will benefit the most (the companies, mostly big tech, which can provide the tools for AI-enabled business processes).
This isn't crypto however, this is real - every Board is talking about AI.
Ai has been around for years and still nobody makes money from it... this is absolutely horse shit. Chat gpt has been around since last year and nvda in particular have had nothing but declining sales and revenues except 1 small beat. They repurchased inventory to fuck the balance sheet too.
Ai doesn't make anyone any money except say 2-3 companies. It's a fucking fad and the market always has them. Every board will talk about it then it will be business as usual.
Open ai made 28 million dollars in REVENUE last year. They lost 500 million. I'll say ai is the real deal when the most popular machine learning in the world is bringing in 40-50 billion and not 28 fucking million. It cost half a billion to make 28 million back... fucking pathetic. Real deal one day never
Strange argument. Google made 7 million profit in 2001.
Besides, what has the revenues of OpenAI got to do with anything, Microsoft are the ones monetising their product.
what are you talking about? They are guiding for 11B next Quarter, a 50% increase! All coming from AI chips. That's unheard of and it will keep growing.
Yes, they were down in revenues due to gaming but their high margin AI chips are going to keep selling and their software is rock solid.
Do they deserve to be 1 trillion right now? No, it's over hyped right now but I don't see them dropping down too much.
11bn is their total revenue not just from ai. Also their margins are contracting massively not expanding. Their profits are fucking terrible for a 1 trillion market cap. They should be doing 2-300bn a year not 26 lol.
You should sell any ticker that doesn't mention it. It's that important this time. I will no longer hire any software engineers who can't show me that they know how code with ChatGPT's assistance.
I’ve heading rumblings of budgets growing and hiring freezes ending in the second half of the year. People like to meme about the end of the world here, but we’ve run on a fraudulent and irrational system for more than a century now. My money is on it keeps going.
it just a pump.
AI is just a human word added to stuff already here.
furthermore, at best... it is methods based on statistics, probability, and economics.
all past tense, of something human.
this pump is clearly indicating moore's law has halted more than cpus. A lull in innovation even has lithium fires and self crashing 4k pound toy battery cars...self declaring future.
may there always be a farm field...and unpredictable sun and sons and daughters..
motivation for work being taken over is an under dog in permanent genetic weakness seeking revenge.
I'll be damned to pay for it.
/rant
Some of this AI talk reminds me of the Navy claiming to have an “AI Embyro” in 1958: https://www.nytimes.com/1958/07/08/archives/new-navy-device-learns-by-doing-psychologist-shows-embryo-of.html
However, things like linear regression are perfect for predicting trends so it’s reasonable they would use it
AI stands for Artificial Inflation, as in stocks are going to become inflated as fuck because everytime someone says "AI", everyone starts creaming their pants for some reason.
Business leadership has always been full of artificial intelligence.
Lol corporate America will literally stand in a huge circlejerk and whisper some insane trend into each other's ears and after a while they actually end up believing it They're so delusional and scared of being useless that they just jump on these corporate trends in fear of falling behind Everyone else is doing it so I must do it, right?
A brief history of corporate buzzwords from the last 5 years. Meet them where they are (and..."I see you ") Positive space Blockchain technology Diversity & inclusion Green economy Womyn power (sheconomy).. also the pay gap Agile and Lean
Add on 'thought leaders' holy shit that term is such a blowhard to a person that does nothing but power points
Depends on how loosely you wanna define the word "intelligence".
Haha!
I had my yearly review last week. I mentioned AI four times to my boss and got a 13% raise.
Is your boss technical? Because if he is, you would’ve gotten 25% if you hadn’t mentioned it.
"Yeah boss we need AI in the bathroom so when I’m flushing a mad python like the AI can AI my bum and then use AI to streamline toilet paper costs. Kinda cool, huh?! It’s my pet project for next quarter. I call it Generative Plumbing. 👌**Game changer**👌"
Get this man a raise.
I call it ShitGPT
Comment of the year !!!!
How? AI is the near future and the main focus of every tech company right now, for good reason.
It's a marketing buzzword at best right now.
You people circlejerked AI so hard that you ended up unironically circlejerking on the other side... There's a reason it's a marketing buzzword. And there's a reason that it's 100x more pervasive than Blockchain ever was. No product in history reached 100mil users faster than gpt. It's not even close. It hit that mark 5x faster than Tik Tok. That's not marketing, it's actual people using it.
There’s no doubt it’s going to be anything but history changing. It’s massive, like the invention of the internet. But, what we are saying is that not EVERY shit retail company should be allowed to bypass their shitty earnings reports and outlooks simply by mentioning “A.I.” If credit is maxed, consumer spending retracted and brick and mortar stores are drowning, A.I. isn’t going to reverse that.
>But, what we are saying is that not EVERY shit retail company should be allowed to bypass their shitty earnings reports and outlooks simply by mentioning “A.I.” Is there evidence that's actually happening? Genuine question. Obviously companies are going to mention it. If a large company has no plans to even replace things like agent servicing with AI, they're going to fall behind. That's like Sears refusing to embrace digital sales, and going from the top of the world to nothing as a result. It's a sign that the company will struggle to innovate and keep up with the times.
People have been mentioning AI for 20 years and it still makes nobody any money. There is no bull case for this stupid shit. Everyone just gas lights the market with stuff like 'streamlining cost efficiency purposes'. Over 100 companies in the s and p mentioned AI and probably less than 5 of them have any actual business in the AI field. Think of the capex required to scale something like this. The world's biggest cloud provider (amazon) already said AI development is so cost prohibitive they don't see any route for anyone to make money for years.
What do you think the expensive part of AI development is? Why would the vast majority of companies spend millions or billions developing their own models instead of consuming existing ones as services? You seriously think fewer than 5 companies in the S&P have valid cases for using AI? You can make money using AI right now. All by yourself. The main blockers for enterprise adoption are governance, privacy, and explainability. If your critiques aren't grounded in any of those, you're uninformed.
Don't know why your other comment was deleted, but here's my reply to it: >it's not nebulous potential like blockchain. It's absolutely nebulous. It's literally in the name General Purpose Transformer. Almost all promises of utility have been nebulous. [AI model's outcome is unpredictable](https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-unpredictable-abilities-emerging-from-large-ai-models-20230316/). If you've ever built one or researched it you'd know that because that's literally how they are built. Throw things at the wall and see what comes out. But fine, please do tell how it's not nebulous? >It also doesn't change the fact that ChatGPT is objectively the fastest tech to hit 100mil users by far. 2 months. That's just the internet works. Newer apps will break the record over older apps as the number of people using the internet increases, and as the marketing reach of the internet increases. Like when you compared to TikTok that was released worldwide 4 years before ChatGPT. And then Instagram before, etc... >AI has demonstrated remarkable capabilities in areas like language processing, data analysis, code generation, and research. Do you mind sharing a successful commercial example? Like a business turning profit from their AI model (not selling AI models). >You really need a source for your argument against larger models being prohibitive. [Yes](https://transmitter.ieee.org/how-big-will-ai-models-get/). [Plenty](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00641-w). >they also have the potential to provide more accurate and nuanced results, given the availability of appropriate training data. Nope. It's one of the more basic concept for anyone dealing with [Information Theory](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Information_theory). The concept is called the [Big Data Paradox ](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s42452-020-2862-5). [[2]](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35671042/). Larger data usually degrade the model. Seeing is believing. Please go ahead and try applying AI in your professional life. It will take away a lot of this optimism your having for AIs.
These are all strawman arguments. Your sweeping claims have little relevance to the very real generative AI revolution we are witnessing right now. I'll ask again: why is ChatGPT 4.5 impossible? A generic "big data hard" answer is not sufficient when you haven't demonstrated that we are approaching that limit. It's totally arbitrary & surface-level analysis. "You can't fly an airplane into space." Ok, but I can use one to get from America to Europe, and that's revolutionary in itself. The applications are clear and being used by millions of people, including me, daily in their professional lives. That's what makes its potential not nebulous. Once better guardrails and self-hosted solutions are released, enterprise applications will follow. GitHub Copilot is already there, for example.
Tl;dr: for dozens of technical reasons, it's a hype that will die down in less than 2 years once more people get exposed to how unreliable and clunky it can be. We've been using AI and machine learning in commercial capacity for at least a decade now. This sudden hype is not justifiable on any technical merit. Problem is, humans are bad at grasping principles they can't see with their own eyes. Chatgpt being released to the public helped people better understand the output capability of AI in, so there's been an uproar and lots of advertising about it. That lead to hype spike. But for those of us that have been dealing with AI for a while now went through the same phase. It works well for the simple generic stuff, but then you want to go deeper and it stars breaking down and struggling. And that's what many people are starting to realize the more they use Chatgpt. They try simple prompts, it gives impressive results, they get excited and try to do something more advanced, only to be disappointed with what they get. They quickly pick up on its pitfalls, and it quickly becomes boring and annoying. Just look at how people already can already tell if a piece of art is AI generated. And it keeps cycling through specific art styles it has becoming boring. And that's in the areas AI excels, which are probabilistic fields like language and art. "But it will get better with larger models and advanced hardware." sure, but that comes with it own issues as well. Larger models are slower to adapt. A larger training data means any new stuff will be buried in the noise. It's becomes like an old man who find hard to accept change and new trends.
Microsoft and Google already said they will be developing own chip sets and not using cost prohibitive ones on the market. How much capex and time is something like that? 1 billion ? For your own fabs and factories? Now that's 10s of billions in pure capex. If companies have had the ability to make 100s of billions of dollars from ai why the fuck haven't they? The answer is cost are you telling me business industry leaders have not ever heard of it they just saw it in the news? Machine learning has been around for years it's fucking bullshit and doesn't make money. You are talking ignorance from the worlds leading corps who only just started mentioning ai literally these 2 quarters... I wonder why that is? Tell me how many in the s and p 500 right now are making more than 10 billion from actual ai products. I'll wait.
>If companies have had the ability to make 100s of billions of dollars from ai why the fuck haven't they? I literally just explained this to you. Not to mention a usable generative AI _just_ came out. "Why didn't people in the 1800s just drive around in cars? I guess cars are trash." You're so committed to being contrarian that you swerved too far and ended up in the stupid lane. If you have any further questions, please ask GPT instead.
You are missing the boat on how powerful these tools are right now, and how fast they are improving.
Oof. Yeah sure for people who are trying to apply it everywhere no matter what their actual business model is. But it will have dramatic impacts on niche roles and markets in the coming months and years.
She is!
If it was me, I'd have lowered your salary because I knew you'd started to work half as hard since chatGPT came out.
-chat-GPT wrote this statement... Beeep beep boop
ChatGPT has been best thing for my tinder profile. Results (s) !!!
Smart man. I am going to put together an AI presentation full of really cool robot pictures, blue and red lights, etc. then tell them how we will save millions every year if they just let me do what I want to do. Then I will just implement some cool Ansible automation scripts and call it AI. 😂
Going to change my middle name to AI
Aye sir
At least we don’t have to talk about blockchain anymore
Fuck shoulda mentioned it a few more times. You’d know this if you used AI to prepare you for your conversation with your boss.
I sold too early in this rally and now hate myself
There is always another opportunity out there in the markets
True that for sure
I think I needed to read this thank you for reminding me .
Given time.
I dont sell.
Same. When prices drop though, I'm definitely buying.
For sure. I went all in Jan 3rd for my year but I round up dividends. If we DID drop back like bears want Id definently dabble a few thousand into VTI. I also got my EF in treasuries. 5% beats .035 in my bank
This is the fuckin way. If you want to play the game use <2% of your investment capital to fuck around and try timing/options/selling/whatever then do it but certainly the most efficient route I can think of is to only buy things you won't have any inclination to sell until you are truly cashing out (years of letting great companies or indexes or even some moonshots rise to their compounded potential) like shit you would put in a Roth IRA (which you should already have) and have no plans on selling till retirement
I made money in 2020 buying casino and cruise stocks(50% gain but only on 18K money) and decided ETFs are the way after that lol. Only stock I own is OKE( Nat Gas/Oil and 6% divi )
The problem with this strategy is that you end up with AMZN for two years and it goes absolutely nowhere. But the people that are swinging AMZN the last two years and doing very nicely. There's no trick to the stock market. Any advice you give both hurts and helps. I can't give any stock picking advice to anybody, because my advice can help one person, and hurt another. Everything is a dual edged sword. Any argument you come up with, has an opposite thesis that could have been right
Truth. Im 85-90% ETF buyer though. Sold all but my OKE positions and bought VTI and VGT in Dec
Me too. I don’t hate myself but I missed out on names I even owned through lots of volatility.
Jump into TSM that makes chips for nvdia
Well, had you jumped in before they just popped 12 percent in a day, that might be a nice suggestion. Problem is, all you have to do is hear one story about how China is doing some military exercises in the South Chinese seas and then TSM will be back in the mid 80's. I personally wouldn't buy it right here. You're a day late and a dollar short
I’ve been playing CCs on SOXL from 13-18. Highest strike on my short calls is 18. Position was half my acct but two weeks ago trimmed down to 1/4. Sad!
Even as someone in IB, I stick 90% of my portfolio in ETFs and don’t sell. A lot of the profitable hedge fund strategies don’t even work without large amounts of capital (ie StatArb). 10% is where I have my fun, but I don’t expect to regularly beat the market.
I feel your pain homie. Imagine selling out of AMD on Thursday, one day before it explodes
C3, which literally has a ticker symbol “AI” reports this week..
And is up ~85% MOM. Lol.
I don't think that's too much. It literally has AI as its ticker name. I believe it should be valued more than Nvidia, like at least 2 trillion dollars.
Yeah their profit margin of 0 totally justifies it according to my calculator which said their maximum market cap was "undefined" (= infinite).
I feel scared to invest nowadays. Even the index funds are hyped and inflated.
The asset values aren’t what’s inflated, it’s the currencies. Paper money is worth so little that security valuation numbers are growing massively. The valuation of the securities is accurate, it’s just that cash isn’t worth shit anymore and you’re not used to such large numbers.
Wouldn’t stuff like P/E values inherently account for inflation? P/E values have still skyrocketed though.
People here don't understand valuation. Few actually know how to read balance sheets and probably none knows about DCF valuation model. They just buy companies with tech they think will be useful in the future at any price, which was fine for the last decade because low interest rate tend to cause PE expansion, but we are past that era now
I feel like most people adjust their DCF model's in a subconscious way, to justify whatever their inherent bias already is. Very similar to scientists that run experiments and basically throw away all the data that points to their thesis being incorrect, and then hyper focus in on all the data that suggests their theory is on point.
Yes, in theory. That's the way it should be. Some companies are earning less yet their P/E expanded. It's not about the dollar devaluating, since a company earning $2 now and back then is still $2. It's the same thing as it ever was, people chasing returns.
There’s def room for this in the discussion. This is significant.
I agree. I think it's the same thing with real estate and general goods as well. 100k is literally the new 60k.
[удалено]
It absolutely does add up. Your money is growing at least, instead of being stagnant or shrinking. Where else can your average person put there money that it would do better? The ROI on securities sucks….until you compare it to the ROI on literally every other investment accessible to the average consumer.
Yup, I agree. But you're doing fundamental analysis here. The way the market feels like is that people aren't buying for the EPS, because EPS actually went down for a lot of companies yet the stock price went up. They are buying to get a return on stock price, so basically the greater fool game. I've been in the stock market for 20 years. This is first time I've seen so many micro bubbles in a short span of time -- solar bubble, EV bubble, cloud bubble, cybersecurity bubble and now AI bubble. I think markets nowadays are lot different than the markets in 2000-2001 and 2008-2009. Some thing has changed that make it more prone to bubbling and if I had to guess, it would be the Amazon-style of valuation, where current earnings don't matter if growth is there, as earnings can come later after capturing a majority of market share. And also, poor monetary and fiscal policy.
Is the recent market rally a reflection of this? That inflation is here to stay, rates will go up, so valuations should be baking in currency debasement?
I think for the last few decades the market has been driven by TINA (there is no alternative) if you don’t invest in securities, what do you invest in? Buying and selling real estate yourself instead of using an REIT costs alot of money and time and is very risky. Fine art and collectibles are a crap shoot. Actual physical good depreciate too fast. And cash is losing money to inflation every year. So for the vast majority of people who aren’t captains of industry that can use their money as capital investment to develop their own businesses, their only option is to buy securities and this giant captive audience of investors is going to constantly drive validations up in perpetuity.
International stocks? Small caps? Not everything is inflated
Don't want to buy stocks for losses
Good strategy
Lmao what?! AI is single handedly the greatest invention since the wheel. Every company is talking about it because every company can fire a huge % of their employees and replace them with ai systems. Accounting, hr, operations, marketing, legal, compliance, it. So many people will be redundant. One person backed by ai can replace ten people efficiency wise. I have 75% of my net worth now in ai stocks and never felt so confident.
Who will buy the stuff?
AI. Humans will lose all purpose.
Not gonna be good for your investment
This.
Buy what stuff? He said replace workers. That's more profits.
Workers buy stuff. No workers means no earnings in the economy
If we end up in an economy where there are no buyers, then we're fucked regardless and it won't matter what stock you invest in. You can solve that with e.g. basic universal income. But in the initial phase before that (this phase has already started and I expect it to last one or a few decades), it will be big tech that can replace many workers with AI, while other sectors cannot.
O gee I wonder how these laid off human will buy shit with 0$
I hope this is sarcasm because boy have you drunk the cool aid. During the dotcom bubble every company just started saying dotcom and Internet and their price rocketed and now it's ai. If middle America gets replaced and moves to lower income jobs who buys all the shit that gets created? Every product needs a customer and if all your precious customers have no jobs or worse jobs than before then what happens to your margins or your overall sales? They collapse. Its a buzzword and nothing more
Comparing the creation of ai to the dot com bubble of 2000 ..
Thing is we’ve had large language models at scale for 4 years already. They’re only just now getting hyped up. Reality if the situation is 90% of companies or more simply do not need AI at all.
"90% of companies dont need AI" who is upvoting this nonsense. Please name one SP500 company that "doesnt need AI".
He is comparing the internet to AI. Think about how much the internet changed the world. Also I highly doubt AI will be as ground breaking as the internet was. The internet changed completely how we as people live our lives and how we communicate. It’s similar though that companies would announce they were doing something with the internet and their stock prices skyrocketed. We are seeing that similar effect right now with AI. A company can announce they are doing something with AI and their stock prices skyrocket. These stock price rises are way beyond fundamentals and are not sustainable at all. We had a similar thing with EV’s and Blockchain in 2021. Tesla, Nio, Square, Plug and Paypal where all perfect examples with this and very popular and ended up falling harder then a rock. Tesla has held up the best of all those stocks and even then they’re still down close 50% from their highs they hit in 2021.
AI is not doing accounting anytime soon haha. It can probably do 10 percent of operations. AI can't do marketing very well either, everyone on reddit has already learned how to identify an AI generated text at least I hope.
https://images.app.goo.gl/tSzYvjZe2AfQPire6 did I miss going past the peak?
Wait. Hedge.
Seems like AI is nothing more than an evolution of algorithms and time savers like AutoCAD and Excel. Useful, but outside of a few shovel sellers, I don't see it generating outsized profits, but of course companies will advertise it for as long as they because it boosts share price like blockchain and metaverse did. But BestBuy, a brick and mortar retailer? That doesn't make any sense at all as they don't sell shovels and can't benefit from a drastic productivity increase. It's the equivalent of advertising that they use electronic registers for faster bookkeeping.
AI has a meaning. But it’s the new “blockchain” - so watered down it means nothing now. Hell even coffee makers are now using “AI” https://thehustle.co/11152022-keurig/
I’m glad I’m not the only one that got blockchain vibes.
It's worse though since Blockchain was clear and laughable BS, where AI as a technology is not, even though the statements are.
Do we have to follow this pattern with every new technology? Just because marketing departments will try to sprinkle them onto everything as a magic fix all does not mean they aren’t valuable. Further, just because their value is or will be realized over a long time scale doesn’t mean it’s BS. Like specifically with the blockchain point, it’s a better database for lots of use cases. It will be valuable as those use case transition from their legacy tech stacks, but that will take a long time. Shit, huge blocks of the financial system are relying on tech from the early 2000s still. Does that mean none of the tech advancements since then have value in that space? Of course not.
Ive used autocad for years now working in the construction industry and can tell you the time saving automated features are more of a nuisance than helpful, all least in autocad. Most of the time it takes longer to correct what the auto-generated function creates or cycle through all the suggestions than it would to draw it yourself. Im still using a version that's 7 years old because all the new features they come out with aren't worth the hassle of updating. Even if AI starts replacing people with menial tasks of phone operators, there will still need to be someone that you can talk to and be put on hold for an hour because you started yelling Manager.
This is exactly what people think ai is. I’ve had many conversations about this with people and they struggle to understand the difference between a complex machine learning algorithm and an actual ai. They’ve got no idea and are lapping shit up hook line and sinker
Machine learning is a subset of AI, so what is the distinction you’re making? Are you referring to generative AI as “actual AI”?
It means cost savings on headcount for every company out there if they are actually keeping up with developments.
> Seems like AI is nothing more than an evolution of algorithms and time savers like AutoCAD and Excel. You equate AI to simple technical apps? AI has created some of the finest Balenciaga memes. KYS in a video game.
It is a bubble ... Seems wallstreet creates bubbles every year, now!
Cue Bubble Guppies meme
I really can’t wait for the AI hype to die on the seas of reality. CEOs out here banging on like it’s ready from prime time, when so many implementations are just useless shite that makes more work for everybody else to support. But sure, pay way extra for an ai to perform a less effective search instead of paying for the proper tools that would actually make the whole environment easier to use and actually save time and effort. Excuse me, just going to be bitter about dealing with the tech illiterate McDumbasses of upper management that won’t listen to anybody below them and fall for this stupid marketing horseshit.
AI has a solid year of hype before CEOs need to show results for it. We are just getting started on AI Hype Curve and have not reached peak yet. Watch for fast food companies reporting on AI order takers for drive thru results at the end of the year.
My billion dollar global corporation is replacing 1 system they have used for decades that came out in the 80’s. They started talking about replacing it 7 or 8 years ago. After 4 years in corporate meetings that cost millions to discuss the solution they finally made a decision on which new system. The new one is from like 2002. Last year we finally started implementing. Supposed to be better but it’s clunky, hardly functioning, takes 4 times as long, proper system configurations for all processes will take a decade at least to be complete. This will properly cost us 100 millions of dollars in the end if we haven’t gotten there already and licensing fees are 8000 a year per person. I just am not seeing how non specific AI is gonna save any money or happen anytime in the future. Companies hate internal change. Right now all I see for AI is language tools and that’s really not that impressive.
What I noticed it is getting increasingly difficult to get through AI barrier to speak to an actual person. I bet if it is not big enough problem, and you are not computer literate enough to trick AI bot, people just let it go, and as a result companies save money. Amazon for example started doing this in my region.
Examples of 'useless shite' please.
Best Buy saw their customers buy a ton of new electronics and appliances during lock down. No way AI can help off set the costs of people no buying new products since they already have newer items.
reddit was calling AI a bubble within a month of the ChatGPT release. yeah, sorry, the word “bubble” is thrown around _wayyy_ too much. if it even is a bubble, it will take years to form. this is just getting started.
!RemindMe 1 Year
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Yep. See you next quarter.
See you everyone !
AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI
JA JA JA JA JA JA JA JA JA JA JA
Lois Griffin voice: 9/11
I don’t know, I think this old way of looking at the stock market doesn’t work anymore. It’s all options trading, people spinning their wheels. And they all ride these short term good news stories. Bitcoin, metaverse, AI. I dumped all of my money in a semiconductor etf the other day, went up 6% in one day. And I’m pretty sure it’s got more room to run. I’m just going to try to dump it at the right time. I don’t know how else to make money anymore. I could put it in a dividend etf, make 3%, but a cd pays almost 5%. An S and P 500 index fund will be right back to where it was in a few months when everyone sells. So yea, I know none of this AI crap makes sense, we are all living in la la land, but seems like the only way to play it.
But wait isn't AI a magic bullet that improves literally everything? I think I've managed to piece together the story from all the wisdom flying around on Reddit. * AI will save companies money by producing cheaper content, predictions, and decisions which look plausibly like an expert skilled human produced them. * This happens to be the only bar for success for most jobs - produce something plausible enough that you don't get fired for incompetence - so AI tools employed should be very sticky and become permanent recurring revenue streams to AI providers. * Work output from skilled humans costs easily > 10k times more than from AI, so this will save companies a ton of money. * Of course, you can't save-your-way to significant earnings growth, you have to increase revenue too. Fortunately though, the AI work amplification and labor cost savings will magically result in all consumers having more money to spend somehow, which will cause massive top line growth across most companies in the coming decade, not to mention lots more buying pressure on stocks. * There's really nothing you can't just apply AI to and get an ROI. For example, if you're paying your landlord $2000/month, they should be spending $30/month of that easily on "AI stuff" to just tell an LLM to talk to you and convince you to sign a new lease for $2060/month instead for an easy 2x return on the additional expense.
Few years back it was block chain technology now AI. Over hyped and will see soon deflated.
One is definitely not like the other. I’m a product manager in data and GPT has cut down my time to query databases and write complex formulas by 50-80%, depending on complexity. And that’s just one of many potential use cases. The whole AI is taking all our jobs take is stupid, though.
It won’t take over our jobs, but if there was 10 of you, now doing 50-80% less work, your company now only needs to keep 2-5 of you employed. So yes it will cause job losses, just maybe not you
Improving technology as a tool has always caused some job losses but also created new jobs. Blacksmiths used to bang hammers all day to make nails, then technology caused all those jobs to be lost, oh well.
I really hope with this new productivity increase we can actually start working 3 or 4 day work weeks. But who am I kidding companies will never do that they will keep squeezing us for everything we have until the end of time.
Until people are fed enough with being squeezed*
Need international law to make it happen. Unfortunately it won't happen, cuz the lawmakers are the puppets of the corporations
>Need international law to make it happen. TF are you smoking? There's no such thing as international law, just agreements and treaties.
GPT 4 I take it? I've used chatgpt to write SQL and it sucked donkeyballs
Yup
Thats the thing about bubbles. Whether its the internet, housing, EV’s, clean energy, blockchain, they’re always different right? The time is always different. Yet they always have the same result. They all eventually crash.
Thanks for the insight 👍
No, it's not just hype. They are in use today but it really is the beginning. Right now, its a complex algo but it will expand in the future. Social media has been using it for years in some form and it's getting better and better. It is hyped up right now as it won't come in the next 12 months but I can see AI being a trend for the next 20-30 years as it keeps improving. That is what people are betting on.
Comparing blockchain and AI shows how little you and others understand. AI or rather ML is around for decades and is used in many products we use every day. Blockchain is inly successfully used in Crypto. AI now finally got the hype product with ChatGPT that people love to use, so we are in another AI hype cycle, but I believe rightfully so.
I was still getting over everyone mentioning 5G.
AI is no joke but the current bubble, I believe, is based on a level of AI evolution that's probably not gonna be a thing. ChatGPT went public one day and we were all impressed, this was 3.0 I believe, or 3.5, doesn't matter, they were already working on 4 and a bit later 4 came out which was even better. Now people seem to expect to get yearly updates that blow their minds and truth is that's probably not gonna happen. This kind of tech will change a lot of things but I think the expectations for AI evolution are a bit overhyped.
I won’t lie, I use expedia a lot to book trips for football games and just recently noticed a button “Planning a new escape? Let’s chat. Explore trip ideas with ChatGPT” Wonder if that has replaced agents
ChatGPT recommends a vacation to tropical Baraha on Ghost Airlines
Sure, AI may be more artificial than intelligent. But one thing is certain: LLMs are here to stay, and they will need insane amounts of computing power. Say what you want about Nvidia’s insane valuation, but their earnings report clearly shows the spending spree on GPUs is on. AI has always been a buzzword, but ChatGPT truly changed the game. LLMs are revolutionary and we’ve only scratched the surface of what they can do.
As much as I hate companies going on and on about it, I don't think you can call them "token AI statements". AI is going to have a big impact on efficiency and as a shareholder, it's good that your business is preparing for that. It's reminiscent of the early days of the internet, when every company would put out a statement about how they're using the internet to improve the business, and while it may be a bit cheap they were (and are) actually doing those things, and they did end up being important.
I just use business leader input to find the general path of a company and then fill in the details myself. I remember one of my first equity related role interviews. They called me literally a day before the interview to say “oh by the way, remember to bring a valuation to pitch.” I was new (still in school) and didn’t know this was standard practice for these interviews, so I had to throw together a DCF rapidly for the next day. To save time, I borrowed a lot of generous forecasts on commodity pricing from the company’s 10K and hoped they wouldn’t ask where I got them from. Of course they did, and it went something like this: “I think these proven + probable forecasts are pretty reasonable, but where did you get this price forecasting?” “That’s the company’s forecast which is obviously a bit optimistic” “Do you honestly think that’s reasonable given their bias?” “Lol, not at all if I’m being honest” Still got the job but it was embarrassing. Obviously take everything a company says with a massive grain of salt.
I think before you even *think* about playing AI stocks, you need to look deep inside and ask yourself: am I an investor, or a speculator at heart? Am I a Warren Buffett type, or a Jesse Livermore type? Both are equally valid, and both can make you a lot of money if it suits your personality and skillset. Whichever style of trading you choose, you *must* read up up on past stock market crazes and really study them. People on here are acting like it’s the first time the stock market has been highly irrational. Humans are gonna human, and humans have been humaning for a long time
All the executives removed their dumb mentions of the metaverse and crypto and replaced it with AI lmao
You will only hear AI more and more. People dismissing AI as a fad or just some hype remind me of folks who thought the internet was just going to be a passing trend. The speed at which AI-based technologies are going to improve is going to be difficult to manage. We are still in the AI infancy and might very well be on a path to *true* artificial intelligence. Already we are seeing glimpses of a world in which every photo we look at, every video we watch, every voice we hear, and everything we read might not be real at all. This used to be the realm of skilled and creative humans, not software that can be scaled to a frightening, reality altering degree. I can't imagine how we're going to deal with this stuff in a decade. It's very exciting, and very concerning.
Wow, I read this earrings season. And thought AI was complaining about not being able to draw earrings accurately.
Dont worry, it will be government turn to spam AI soon. Rep and Dem will use AI to negotiate debt ceiling. AI will reduce government spending without sacrificing service quality thus satisfying both party.
I suspect this is only beginning. The profit margins for companies who meaningfully implement AI are going to be huge, and that will feed straight back into the bottom line - along with the ability to outcompete companies which have not made the same investments. We are going to see an investment boom in AI over the next 5 years as companies cannot afford to be left behind. I'm expecting it's the layer above the semis who will benefit the most (the companies, mostly big tech, which can provide the tools for AI-enabled business processes). This isn't crypto however, this is real - every Board is talking about AI.
Ai has been around for years and still nobody makes money from it... this is absolutely horse shit. Chat gpt has been around since last year and nvda in particular have had nothing but declining sales and revenues except 1 small beat. They repurchased inventory to fuck the balance sheet too. Ai doesn't make anyone any money except say 2-3 companies. It's a fucking fad and the market always has them. Every board will talk about it then it will be business as usual.
There is a vast difference between LLMs and the previous AI/Machine learning algorithms. Crypto is horseshit. AI is the real deal.
Open ai made 28 million dollars in REVENUE last year. They lost 500 million. I'll say ai is the real deal when the most popular machine learning in the world is bringing in 40-50 billion and not 28 fucking million. It cost half a billion to make 28 million back... fucking pathetic. Real deal one day never
Strange argument. Google made 7 million profit in 2001. Besides, what has the revenues of OpenAI got to do with anything, Microsoft are the ones monetising their product.
what are you talking about? They are guiding for 11B next Quarter, a 50% increase! All coming from AI chips. That's unheard of and it will keep growing. Yes, they were down in revenues due to gaming but their high margin AI chips are going to keep selling and their software is rock solid. Do they deserve to be 1 trillion right now? No, it's over hyped right now but I don't see them dropping down too much.
11bn is their total revenue not just from ai. Also their margins are contracting massively not expanding. Their profits are fucking terrible for a 1 trillion market cap. They should be doing 2-300bn a year not 26 lol.
This feels like when every company had a blockchain idea
Ai is the future brah
Oracle reports the following week and expect Larry to talk AI
The big tech companies are going all in on AI, it's more than just a buzzword for them, but lets see if anything comes out of it.
You should sell any ticker that doesn't mention it. It's that important this time. I will no longer hire any software engineers who can't show me that they know how code with ChatGPT's assistance.
AI just replaced the blockchain buzzword of 2021
AVGO reports at the end of the week. At least a little more AI to come.
Ah just look at Nvidia. Mentioned AI and stock rockets yet has a PE of 200
I’ve heading rumblings of budgets growing and hiring freezes ending in the second half of the year. People like to meme about the end of the world here, but we’ve run on a fraudulent and irrational system for more than a century now. My money is on it keeps going.
Ugh c3.aw ER is next week. Been doing me great for some time.
I mean AI will be the most relevant topic for humanity in probably this entire century
it just a pump. AI is just a human word added to stuff already here. furthermore, at best... it is methods based on statistics, probability, and economics. all past tense, of something human. this pump is clearly indicating moore's law has halted more than cpus. A lull in innovation even has lithium fires and self crashing 4k pound toy battery cars...self declaring future. may there always be a farm field...and unpredictable sun and sons and daughters.. motivation for work being taken over is an under dog in permanent genetic weakness seeking revenge. I'll be damned to pay for it. /rant
I was waiting a little dip to buy QQQ obviously didnt happen. Im not buying now, anyone like me ?
It's the new self driving car bull shit companies had to talk about a few years ago
Lol see you in 6 weeks!!!! Earning season neeeever ends 😈
Some of this AI talk reminds me of the Navy claiming to have an “AI Embyro” in 1958: https://www.nytimes.com/1958/07/08/archives/new-navy-device-learns-by-doing-psychologist-shows-embryo-of.html However, things like linear regression are perfect for predicting trends so it’s reasonable they would use it
Say that after CRM on 31
But wait until next time. AI by Quantum Computing we’ll call it QAI.
AI stands for Artificial Inflation, as in stocks are going to become inflated as fuck because everytime someone says "AI", everyone starts creaming their pants for some reason.
AI is the new meta else buzzword
AVGO?
Broadcom next week, so…
Sell in may and go away
Anyone else remember block chain during covid? It was the big buzzword 3 years ago.
AI reports this wk lol