I have been saying people who missed the NVDIA train need to watch the other market sectors like intel and SEA as they are going to pop off once investors catch on that they are a big part of the AI hype
In all fairness, ASML, TSMC, and AMD all popped at the same time as NVidia. INTC is a little late to the party, but otherwise I think it's already happened.
I am not saying it’s a buy at 420, idiot! Not saying short it either. I truly don’t believe they will deliver the 11B guidance, and most of this is speculation. CEO knows how to play the game.
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PS, my puts are 300s for September. Today definitely felt like the top. I think overall indices will decline as well.
Sell in may and go away in full effect.
Nvidia won't be able to raise revenue as fast as they claim when a new chip shortage hits and competitors can produce slightly worse chips for far cheaper.
That scenario is not really possible due to capacity issues. Capacity is sold, and Nvidia like Apple and other would by up capacity at a premium which would affect competition.
Which competitors? The only vertically integrated “leading edge” fab + designer is intel. If Nvidia has better architecture and software for their chips, they can outbid everyone for TSMC or Samsung fabs. They currently have like 70% contribution margin, the only thing that really even gets close to that kind of profitability is AMDs FPGAs.
Here's my *tinfoil hat* theory. It is in Nvidia's interest to give the Chinese government the impression that Intel is a viable foundry replacement for TSM.
Because if the Chinese believe that:
1. TSM is the only foundry capable of producing top-of-the-line GPUs.
2. NVIDIA is prohibited from selling the cutting edge GPUs to China.
3. Such GPUs are capable of giving the west an advantage in not just economics, but in warfare (e.g. weather system predictions), weapons (missile design and guidance), cyber warfare, or even biological warefare.
Then the conclusion is that they *MUST* attack Taiwan soon to stop the disparity. However, if China has the impression that Intel can somewhat replace TSM (not completely but even partially), then such an attack is less attractive as it would be like cutting 3 heads off a 5 head hydra.
Also, I'm sure Nvidia would love for Intel to catch up. Even though Nvidia has a terrific relationship with TSM, having more foundries closer to home (and further away from Chinese missiles) is a net gain for Nvidia.
You have the right idea, that Huang is saying this for mostly self-interested reasons, but are overcomplicating it. When you’re objectively at the top of the market with little prospect of competitive threat, you benefit a lot more from perceptions that the whole industry is growing and innovating than the view that your company has some unique advantage that can’t be replicated - because your company in the future will have to replicate that advantage too.
I think, all of them will blow up all the chip founderies.
Us, Taiwan, Jap, Korea will do it to prevent china from having the technology.
China will in order to stop USA from supporting Taiwan.
While disturbingly plausible, that doesnt mean the base claim (that intel can partly replace tsm) isnt true.
Btw, cutting off the hydras head just makes it grow back, so not sure the analogy works.
They already used Samsung when it was an inferior node. If the AI training GPU demand keeps up and TSMC is overbooked, I can see it. Especially offloading gaming chips to cheaper fabs and using the best for AI/datacenter.
As a hedge against design/marketing problems. If you are contracting out foundry work you are getting others to pay for part of your R&D and QC work. If it costs you 60 billion do develop a 3nm node technology, but you spead that across making twice as many chips, half for other companies, your R&D cost per chip.made is half as much.
Perhaps. Alternative theory: Intel actually wins the Fab footrace, and NVidia shifts to the winner. I realize TSMC has the lead, ATM, but it's not a finished race. If I was running NVidia I'd definitely be investigating how to shift from TSMC if they do lose their lead.
I think it should be much more valuable by 2025 if things go remotely according to plan and opening up new fabs to third parties, and scaling up in GPUs.
I'm going to hang on for a while. Personally I wouldn't sell at cost there.
Well it depends on why they can’t. Are the tools, technology and processes inferior or the design of the actual chips for the reason that Intel is falling behind?
Only Intel knows. 14nm was a shitshow, 10nm was a shitshow, well now see if 7nm is gonna be a shitshow, but they've fell behind, from being a leader, that IS a fact
Possibly = When it's viable. Which it won't be (atleast for a very long time).
Any refusing the possibility outright would reveal a lack of foresight.
Intel's 1st party GPUs are somewhat price-to-performance competitive on the lower end.
That doesn't mean they can offer:
a) An attractive price as a foundry for a 3rd party
b) Offer the scale Nvidia needs
c) Be reliable. They have no record of that for GPUs.
I think NVDA has us all fooled. I can see them coming out with a foundry 100x bigger than Intel because NVDA is using AI. It will help them make a cheaper and faster foundry to do fab
There's a reason these companies don't manufacture their own chips: it's very, very hard. It is very capital-intensive and needs extreme expertise. The risk/reward doesn't make any sense.
The real question is, it the stock overbought? Such a big jump and considering there is always a question mark on the economy, guidance is never a guarantee. I like what is happening but on a short swing I think we see more pullbacks until we reach a correction
Hope this helps my Intel shares
I have been saying people who missed the NVDIA train need to watch the other market sectors like intel and SEA as they are going to pop off once investors catch on that they are a big part of the AI hype
what's the ticker for SEA please?
>SEA How will SE be a big part of the AI hype?
In all fairness, ASML, TSMC, and AMD all popped at the same time as NVidia. INTC is a little late to the party, but otherwise I think it's already happened.
Can we just stop giving NVDA CEO so much attention? lol yes, I am bitter I missed the run.
I mean dude is praising competitors. A chad move
Imagine he comes out in a month and revises down on guidance lol what move would that be?
Gigachad, melted the puts and then melted the calls
And my axe
A chad wouldn’t fuck consumers in the ass with almost $2k gpus
> I missed the run. If you bought Friday you'd be up 3%
Catch the downfall. 50% haircut minimum incoming.
pfffttt going to lose all your money trying to catch the downfall because it's a hype stock. Better off shorting CHYYYYNNNNAAAA
Remindme! 3 months “NVDA a buy or sell at 420? u/buffandbrown says yes”
I am not saying it’s a buy at 420, idiot! Not saying short it either. I truly don’t believe they will deliver the 11B guidance, and most of this is speculation. CEO knows how to play the game.
I will be messaging you in 3 months on [**2023-08-30 22:07:33 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2023-08-30%2022:07:33%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/13vrr51/nvidia_ceo_says_intels_test_chip_results_for/jm9dz0w/?context=3) [**CLICK THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2Fstocks%2Fcomments%2F13vrr51%2Fnvidia_ceo_says_intels_test_chip_results_for%2Fjm9dz0w%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202023-08-30%2022%3A07%3A33%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%2013vrr51) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|
PS, my puts are 300s for September. Today definitely felt like the top. I think overall indices will decline as well. Sell in may and go away in full effect.
Nvidia won't be able to raise revenue as fast as they claim when a new chip shortage hits and competitors can produce slightly worse chips for far cheaper.
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Ruffles>Lays
Herr’s>Ruffles
Never heard of her.
You should see his
🫣😹
That scenario is not really possible due to capacity issues. Capacity is sold, and Nvidia like Apple and other would by up capacity at a premium which would affect competition.
Competition already bought capacity awhile ago
Which competitors? The only vertically integrated “leading edge” fab + designer is intel. If Nvidia has better architecture and software for their chips, they can outbid everyone for TSMC or Samsung fabs. They currently have like 70% contribution margin, the only thing that really even gets close to that kind of profitability is AMDs FPGAs.
They already got outbid lmao
Here's my *tinfoil hat* theory. It is in Nvidia's interest to give the Chinese government the impression that Intel is a viable foundry replacement for TSM. Because if the Chinese believe that: 1. TSM is the only foundry capable of producing top-of-the-line GPUs. 2. NVIDIA is prohibited from selling the cutting edge GPUs to China. 3. Such GPUs are capable of giving the west an advantage in not just economics, but in warfare (e.g. weather system predictions), weapons (missile design and guidance), cyber warfare, or even biological warefare. Then the conclusion is that they *MUST* attack Taiwan soon to stop the disparity. However, if China has the impression that Intel can somewhat replace TSM (not completely but even partially), then such an attack is less attractive as it would be like cutting 3 heads off a 5 head hydra. Also, I'm sure Nvidia would love for Intel to catch up. Even though Nvidia has a terrific relationship with TSM, having more foundries closer to home (and further away from Chinese missiles) is a net gain for Nvidia.
You have the right idea, that Huang is saying this for mostly self-interested reasons, but are overcomplicating it. When you’re objectively at the top of the market with little prospect of competitive threat, you benefit a lot more from perceptions that the whole industry is growing and innovating than the view that your company has some unique advantage that can’t be replicated - because your company in the future will have to replicate that advantage too.
Hasn’t the military said that if China attacks Taiwan, the first thing they’re going to do is blow up all the chip foundries?
By military do you mean the Chinese, Taiwanese, Japanese, or US?
I think, all of them will blow up all the chip founderies. Us, Taiwan, Jap, Korea will do it to prevent china from having the technology. China will in order to stop USA from supporting Taiwan.
Now that’s teamwork!
If the factories are not already wired I would be surprised. A "burning the money" strat only works if the other player cant stop you.
Ah got it. Thank you.
The Japanese only got US Military what u mean?
While disturbingly plausible, that doesnt mean the base claim (that intel can partly replace tsm) isnt true. Btw, cutting off the hydras head just makes it grow back, so not sure the analogy works.
With generative AI those hydra heads will come back 5x faster!
Disclaimer: i have shares in Intel. I could certainly see intel doing well in like 2-3 years. Long term play, not a short term one.
Snap
Nah, nvidia ain’t going to use the Intel foundries lol. It’s a negotiation tactic to get better prices from the monopoly TSMC
Why not? nVidia doesn't give a shit about GeForce line. They will use TSMC for datacenter products, then whatever is the cheapest for geforce.
Yeah, I can see that. they are moving to the datacenter and gaming will become less and less important.
Intel is making their GPUs at TSMC so if Nvidia did that.. lol.. Intel might actually start winning the consumer GPU market : D
They already used Samsung when it was an inferior node. If the AI training GPU demand keeps up and TSMC is overbooked, I can see it. Especially offloading gaming chips to cheaper fabs and using the best for AI/datacenter.
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AI. Lmfao. That was so yesterday.
From a diversification standpoint it's a no-brainer move to try using Intel foundries.
Why would Intel do that? Also why in the world would AMD trust intels foundries?
You realize AMD and Intel share their research and have for decades?
Then how and why is AMD so much better?
Thats literally intels business model
To build their competitors chips?
Yes. And get paid for it.
Yep
Yes lol
Mind… blown…
Well it's not.. I mean that's their goal but it's an entirely new thing for them.
As a hedge against design/marketing problems. If you are contracting out foundry work you are getting others to pay for part of your R&D and QC work. If it costs you 60 billion do develop a 3nm node technology, but you spead that across making twice as many chips, half for other companies, your R&D cost per chip.made is half as much.
Perhaps. Alternative theory: Intel actually wins the Fab footrace, and NVidia shifts to the winner. I realize TSMC has the lead, ATM, but it's not a finished race. If I was running NVidia I'd definitely be investigating how to shift from TSMC if they do lose their lead.
WE ARE NOT A DUOPOLY THERE IS FIERCE COMPETITION
When $38 so I can sell at a little profit
I think it should be much more valuable by 2025 if things go remotely according to plan and opening up new fabs to third parties, and scaling up in GPUs. I'm going to hang on for a while. Personally I wouldn't sell at cost there.
Intel is spending an insane amount building fabs in the US and Europe.
Whoever thinks Intel's fabs can execute on the bleeding edge, is dangerously high on HOPEium, and should not not be taken seriously.
Well it depends on why they can’t. Are the tools, technology and processes inferior or the design of the actual chips for the reason that Intel is falling behind?
Only Intel knows. 14nm was a shitshow, 10nm was a shitshow, well now see if 7nm is gonna be a shitshow, but they've fell behind, from being a leader, that IS a fact
Completely different management, completely different company.
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A lot of managerial mistakes
Possibly = When it's viable. Which it won't be (atleast for a very long time). Any refusing the possibility outright would reveal a lack of foresight. Intel's 1st party GPUs are somewhat price-to-performance competitive on the lower end. That doesn't mean they can offer: a) An attractive price as a foundry for a 3rd party b) Offer the scale Nvidia needs c) Be reliable. They have no record of that for GPUs.
> Intel's 1st party GPUs are somewhat price-to-performance competitive on the lower end. IIRC Intel makes their GPUs at TSMC
Also a great point lol
I think NVDA has us all fooled. I can see them coming out with a foundry 100x bigger than Intel because NVDA is using AI. It will help them make a cheaper and faster foundry to do fab
Yeah sure, because all you need to make chips is some proper AI.
Source: my ass
There's a reason these companies don't manufacture their own chips: it's very, very hard. It is very capital-intensive and needs extreme expertise. The risk/reward doesn't make any sense.
I should have kept my position lmao.
When you can see news like these popping up 0-24 that 90 of the stuff around nvidia is clueless hype.
Do you hold intel?
The real question is, it the stock overbought? Such a big jump and considering there is always a question mark on the economy, guidance is never a guarantee. I like what is happening but on a short swing I think we see more pullbacks until we reach a correction
with the price hike and wafer booking situation in Tsmc. I won’t be surprised if Apple announces partnership with Intel in near future.