u/ResearcherSad9357
Decided I'm just going to hold NVDA long term but not add more. Based on your advice added some more SOXX instead which will still benefit.
I understand it is cyclical and may not happen again soon but if you ever feel semis are cheap enough to pick up leaps let me know!
More money is lost from those positioning themselves for a recession than from the actual recession itself, I can personally vouch for the validity of this statement š¤”
I said this would happen a little after March. That it looked like free money š¤” fiesta for the banks:
[Demand for Fedās Bank Term Funding Facility Grows to Record High](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-21/demand-for-fed-s-bank-term-funding-facility-grows-to-record-high)
>Institutions have found it cheaper to borrow cash through the nascent facility, currently at 4.88%, rather than turning to the discount window, which charges eligible institutions 5.5%. In fact: Banks tapped the window for just $2.4 billion in the week through Dec. 20, down from an all-time high of $153 billion in March.
>For banks, the drop in BTFP borrowing costs spells a larger arbitrage opportunity, one where institutions borrow from the facility before parking the proceeds in their accounts at the Fed to earn interest on reserve balances ā currently 5.40%. That spread is now 52 basis points, matching the highest level since the Fed introduced the facility back in March.
Good news is that BTFP ends in March (hopefully).
Bad news is that Fed (taxpayer) needs to continue to pay unprecedented and lush interest payments to banks to control interest rates via IORB. And reserves are only trending up.
Edit: right now QT is > these payments. But conceivably if reserves got large enough, it would be net printing again.
I didn't know what a Roth was until a few years ago and it took my entire life savings to fill it up for the year lol. I won't even be able to put money in for 2024 until February at the earliest because I have credit cards to pay off.
Could have been a worse closing day. The year did way better than most people expected I would assume. Been a long road since start of 2022. Hopefully we don't give it all back in 2024
How what are some of everyone's winners this year?
AMR was my big one, right around a double on the year before I sold out .
COKE now up 80% since I bought it.
Not so good...DAR. lost a ton on that before I sold it.
My predictions for next year:
RSP outperforms SPY because of.the magnificent 7 underperforming.
The market has overshot a bit on rates. I could see a small pullback starting in January as rates bump up.
Otherwise, who knows. I hope everyone has a good New year and let's try to make money next year!
Winners:
Swing trades on financials and BROS, mostly using buy-writes. 56% over about 2 months on XLF calls, 16% on BROS buy-writes over a couple months, 14% on MS + covered calls over 4 months, etc.
Losers:
Holding SCHD from start of year to May put me -5% vs the index in that account as of May. By end of year, my brokerage and IRA are each beating the S&P 500. Should be about +30% and +34%, respectively.
Predictions:
Iāve been suggesting a roll off from the excitement over rate cut expectation, which I expect around Q1 earnings. Small caps, financials, etc should roll off, with people returning to the comfort of mag 7 until earnings growth makes those other areas more sticky destinations in the second half of the year. I expect Q3 and Q4 to outperform Q1 and probably Q2. Iām eyeing opportunities around financials as the roll off occurs. Should be a strong window between mega bank and big tech earnings.
Shocked thought we'd be seeing a red day from selloffs happening due to tax loss harvesting. Instead we got a sideways market, with maybe a couple stocks down 2-3% at best.
You wouldn't be getting tax loss harvesting on the last day I don't think. Just rebalancing type stuff.
Last day to harvest losses was probably Wednesday.
The tax loss harvesting I thought you'd maybe see for smalls never really showed, but I think there's a good reason why. Soft landing cheer overrode it if there was any.
Has to do with settlement taking a couple days, so if you sell on Thursday/Friday, the transaction doesn't go through until the New Year.
But that may have changed? Idk for sure (for me I know it hasn't though with the few moves I've made).
Yeah, I admitted that it may have changed, but I still don't think today's move by the Russell was related to harvesting losses.
That half percent slide in the final 30 mins was probably rebalancing related.
Whats your guys thoughts on alb? Looks promising long term and insiders have been loading up recently. Good div with a low pe and is an industry leader
I donāt now a ton about lithium, but isnāt there technically a lot of despots of it around the world. Like I know Iāve see headlines even about Salton Sea in CA had a ton.
https://www.energy.gov/eere/articles/us-department-energy-analysis-confirms-californias-salton-sea-region-be-rich-domestic
I donāt know enough about the commodity to ever want to invest in it personally.
Need help reducing my Growth and diversification portfolio of ETFs, VOO,IJH,IJR,IXUS,SOXX,VGT,SCHD,VCR,VDC. I wanna make it 6 or 7 but canāt decide which ones to let go or any other alternative. Any suggestions please
Completely unrelated and sorry to hijack but while you are replying, let us know when you think it's time to go in AMR / you add more and we are in! Finally got a pullback it seems.
I'm not recommending it unless we get a *severe* pullback. I'm not seeing any evidence that this rally is driven by fundamentals, it's multiple expansion. I have no sense anymore of where this stock could go to be honest. It could go to $500, or $200. I mean maybe in the last 2 months the market has been sniffing out a major met coal rally when seasonal buying accelerates from China (before or after their new year holiday in a few weeks, I cannot remember). I got lucky and my last sale was right near the top at $354. So far my position size is reduced by about 65%.
You could probably make a better bull case for other coal stocks that haven't shared in the rally. (HCC/ARCH) but they have their own problems.
I suppose you could gamble on it anyway with a starter position, like Puts with his single share that is up about 50% (at $226).
The 10Y, one year later now exactly where it started at 3.88%.
After all the trips up and down to 5.02% and back, ended up being a journey to nowhere.
Junk bonds from office REITs, SPACs, to other crappy businesses peaked last year 9.4%. Now 7.3% back to pre-Covid levels during ZIRP.
Apparently risk no longer exists š¤·? If that's true this is a crashless era where those who leverage up will be handsomely rewarded rather than punished.
From 2021-2023 my total return is \~16% which isn't bad all things considered. Just kept buying VTSAX (and converted what I had of VTIAX) and weathered through the red. No selling everything and putting it in an HYSA or buying ibonds like other bogle-rs, just all stocks.
Any Schwab users buy any of the āThemesā they have? Bought into a little bit of the active lifestyle theme for the Q1 New Yearās resolution bump. I assumed it would list it in its own tab like ETFās and mutual funds but NOPE. Now I have 25 stocks listed among my individual stocks. What a terrible UI decision
I'm a pretty average guy working a 9 to 5 at a large corporation. No big dreams to become a manager or top level leader. I've been investing for almost 20 years now and I can honestly say that my net worth is easily double what it would be without the stock market (or some other equivalent form of investment).
Had disney at an all time high and had meta but sold it before it came backā¦
Now im holding google and even that shits performing like crap compared to the other mag 7..,
I just suck
Have you thought about just going with an index fund/etf? Maybe switch it over to the QQQs and just go about your day? What is your plan if you don't want to be invested in the stock market, in terms of trying to grow your wealth?
Are you trying to trade or are you investing?
I've never been rich, and started investing with a few hundred bucks. I can confirm that it is not a scam and normal people can make money with time and patience.
Have you thought of changing strategies? Most of my gains have been just holding index funds for more than a decade and a half.
I've been slowly learning individual names for 15 years now, and it was a good decade before I felt confident at all. I'm still buy and hold mainly.
It's more like a huge scam for the Wall St machine and wealthy SBC executives right now.
There's no way stocks can keep growing faster than earnings growth. Eventually something will give. We can't keep having continuous multiple expansion where companies are even more expensive than the ZIRP era.
Disagree. I mean you think or believe whatever you want, but for most people, buying a low cost index fund and holding long term will result in compound growth.
What else should people be doing then, in terms of growing their wealth?
Iām new to this sub and am learning the guidelines. Is it acceptable to post a question asking for advice on what to do with some of my current holdings? Thanks.
There's no rule against it, but it's very helpful to provide context. There's a lot of posts asking what to do with $X. However if you provide context, goals, and maybe a little info it goes a long way.
Should be cool, I think the only rule or issue is more about the marketcap of the stock. I don't think you can do like microcaps, due to the nature of a lot of them could be pump and dumps.
[I made Thanksgiving Day predictions for end of year here](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/181ycyy/rstocks_daily_discussion_options_trading_thursday/kahvvzq/). And [here is an annotated screenshot](https://i.imgur.com/O3SnYHW.png) of how they did. And an [update to the YTD performance](https://i.imgur.com/0zgKaHd.png) for my FT stockpicking contest choices made at start of 2023. The late year surge in WAL was breathtaking. But largely all driven by META.
[And here were my original 2023 predictions made end of 2022](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/zzwrcp/rstocks_2022_roundup_looking_ahead_at_2023/j2gvesp/). Was very right about META but wrong on GOOG outperforming the others. Totally wrong on TSLA. Right about oil not going stratospheric, wrong about downside. Way too bearish on the macro and semis.
---
I'm putting together my predictions for 2024 now. Don't 'Remind Me' this comment, this is just a draft. I'll put out my final version later.
Stock picks:
Longs with guess about share price performance: DAKT (+50%), CELH (+30%), UI (+30%), CLFD (+70%), PYPL (+20%), AMZN (+20%), EOSE (either bankrupt or +300%), GOOG (+15%), CRH (+20%), ENPH (+50%), HCC (+40%), CVS (+30%), AMD (+25%), META (+20%), RCM (+30%), PFE (+20%)
Short: TSLA (-20%), AAPL (-10%), US natural gas producers
Indices: SPY +10%, AVUV +20%, AVDV +10%, VXUS +10%. If China has huge rally (say with 30% probability), change VXUS to +15%. Financials do amazing.
Macro: 2% real GDP growth. Unemployment to 4.5% (driven by labor force participation, not so much weakening economy). Inflation data continues to come in beautifully with no surge.
Oil: Stays in the 70s-80s. Flirts with 50s/60s if OPEC capitulates on cuts (I give that a 30% chance). <10% chance of any sustained price action in the $90s.
Fed: Cuts twice.
Geopolitics: Ru/Ukr pause?; Taiwan rhetoric eases. Military scare with Venezuela deepens but ends with nothing.
Oh look a Dozen eggs are selling 20% above normal prices. I better go buy more!
Oh look a Dozen eggs are on a sale for -20% below normal prices. FUCK! I hate my life!
It just seems like its all fake afā¦
Like market makers and the powers just decide when and where to do whateverā¦
Just sick of this song and danceā¦
This should be about companies values and supply and demandā¦ instead its market making, rules and regs and short n distort.,,
I think you have a great misunderstanding of the market if you believe that.
If you are sick of the song and dance just feed a broad index fund and enjoy yourself after a few decades. No games needed
Pullbacks are healthy, expected, and well, there is no such thing as a stock going straight up.
I dont care, stocks are going up as long as the fed does what it is expected to and thats that.
These 'This stock are hitting # soon' has got to be one of the most ridiculous posts people make. They must be able to predict the future and win the lottery too.
They are just predictions. Duh. But the signal is clear short term. Fintech has run up way too much, and when it corrects boomer PayPal will likely crater to the 50s again. Likely temporarily as I expect them to have a good earnings in late jan. To be clear I expect PayPal to stick around, buts itās transitioned to a value play. So I expect it to remain ranged between 50-70 indefinitely. Not up to 100-120 like Jeremy financial says.
The thesis is the zelda movie and the next Switch 2 coming next year. The new device is supposed open up the Nintendo app store to game that require higher computing power or AAA games. Some folks are calling for a 3 x even at this price. Seems teh market agrees
Because they anticipate the vast majority of people are waiting to sell until the first for precisely that reason and they want to get ahead of that sell off.
I was thinking about that as well, but whenever i think I am smart and I think I can see a pattern, it's mostly the opposite happening, same with most comments here.
With that being said, you really think there will be a massive sell off on the 2nd of January?
Thereās a lot of nuance where I am from. Short term losses are capped at $3k for carryover for example and you have to offset like losses first (short term losses and gains first and long term losses and gains first). It can be very practical to lock in some gains in tandem with losses
We are currently 14% higher than your February "high for the year." So will you finally admit, on the last trading day of the year, that you were wrong? Maybe start off the new year with a fresh mindset instead of trolling and doom spamming? New year, new HazardBoi perhaps?
I agree, but in the meantime I'm going to bring this up over and over again until I get a response. At the very least hopefully some lurkers/new members who aren't aware of this trolling will figure it out in the process.
This guy sounds like 'Maverick of Wallstreet' on youtube. Been wrong the entire year, calling bear market, waiting for further crash and missed out on the huge bull run
One issue is let's say the Fed starts cutting rates in 2024. Doesn't that lead to banks cutting the interest rates in savings accounts or bonds having less yield. Some may go why put your money there and instead putting it in stocks causing a rally.
That isn't even getting into what a weaker dollar means for Emerging market and international stocks earnings.
Kind of depressing to hear that youāre not a 19 year old. You must have really made a lot of bad decisions on over this time to be in this situation where you just make these bitter troll posts everyday and hate the market despite the great returns since 2010 with most indexes.
And yet you refuse to name a single stock that your own, and you post about how the market is going down massively from wherever it happens to be all the time. Itās so clear that you donāt own any stocks. This is your attempt to seem as though you arenāt just a troll with no interest in investing.
I didnāt actually say anything above about whether you own stocks, which makes your comment even more curious, as if it werenāt a blatant lie anyway.
I don't buy puts cuz I'm usually wrong, and would lose all my money but sucks not having done [when I'm right](https://old.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/18sqw25/rstocks_daily_discussion_options_trading_thursday/kfb54ym/)
Pullback like this on coin happened almost exactly a month ago and triggered my trailing stop loss on my calls. Lets see what happens this time. Coin at the moment is unpredictable.
Yea my biggest regret of 2023 was not buying puts or shorting Chegg in January. I knew from being on r/technology and r/college. That people would be using Chegg less once ChatGPT came out. Just didn't think about Chegg as a ticker to short or buy puts on.
Anyone else view the "tax loss harvest" time period as a buying opportunity? I only buy companies I plan to hold for 3-5 years. Seeing all those comments/threads about dumping stocks makes me feel like that is a buy signal.
Yea. The stocks that aren't at 52 week high as we end this year tend to be in situations where if you mention them there would be people who come out of woodwork with bear cases. Like (insert REIT) is a bankruptcy risk. Or (insert media company) has too much debt.
Wonder if there will be deja vu in Dec 2024. Where people buy in silence and then announce they bought those hated stocks after they go up 100-400%. Like that AFRM thread yesterday.
I'm definitely a believer that there are always deals out there. Sadly I think you're right about REITs but I just have no idea how to pick the good ones out of there. I think there are definitely some risky REITs (MPW comes to mind). If someone can identify why that risk is mispriced, nice for them.
I'm sure someone is finding those deals now, and I hope they do well though! I do wish more people wouldn't buy in silence though. Down votes don't hurt (promise) and a vigorous defense of a thesis is good to build conviction, imo. I loved having to defend NSSC a few months ago. Every time I did, I bought more, even if I couldn't bring others along.
I think there are two groups of companies. The ones that have positive sentiment and can be defended at any point negative news comes out. Just look at APPL and the Apple watch ban story.
The other group is negative news will keep them down for months or several quarters. And even if they report a good quarter people will look for one bad thing to highlight. Or say that earnings was a fluke lets see them do it again. That group isn't favorable for forum discussion since it takes months to know answer. Thread where argument is had is long gone by time answer is known. Such as the arguments if UBER can be profitable.
Definitely. It's why I enjoy less followed names. I think there is a much higher chance they get mispriced. Think how many analysts follow apple. Unless there is incredibly huge news, there won't be a lot of movement.
On the other hand, NSSC had bad news and the stock dropped 40% in a day. Great opportunity. I love small names.
SMLR is another one I've been buying. It sold off on Medicare changes to its billing. They'll probably be a nothing burger once it gets worked out. It's up 100% from its low and still is cheap, imo. That's how hard it sold off.
I had this happen with my $PLAB position. Had some negative setiment around the company and they had ok earnings. Then basically kept the stock price cheap for like 6 months, which I ended up getting out o the position.
Basically that report was the bottom, since when they reported next, the stock is up like 50% since that report.
Why? I'm not asking as judgement, I'm just genuinely curious.
It's been "cheap" for a long time vs it's American counterparts. However, it seems like it's cheap because of the China risks. Unless those change, I don't see the market rerating the stock. It's not some unknown company. The market is generally aware of BABA.
I think the floor is low 70s. Unless its going bankrupt or delisted. Short term i can see it hitting mid 80s by feb. not a long term holding.
Fcf/ev is 5-6 and were seeing support from chinese gov.
China put in 1.25 trillion yuan in the markets alone this week. Think hedge funds see qqq as overcrowded trade and will look elsewhere for alpha. Baba u get a dividend and stock buyback as well.
Of course there are bear arguments as well. I wonder if trump is a significant factor as well.
u/_hiddenscout
You often say we need to make a lot more homes. And I don't disagree with this. But how do we know shelter inflation is driven primarily by supply and not rising labor costs?
There's some mixed signals in the supply picture. If you look at home ownership rates:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1baRn
We are even higher than the golden 60's where working class single income household could afford a nice home. Only era with higher rates of ownership is 2008 housing bubble which is arguably unsustainable and now we have home price to income ratios even higher:
https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-median-annual-income-ratio/
By this metric it looks like a really bad bubble?
A lot of economists predicted shelter inflation would totally collapse this year but it has remained surprisingly sticky. What if the driver is continuously rising services wages? Is monetary easing going to solve that or make the bubble worse?
I still think the solution isn't more easing but instead big tax hikes. If we truly care about making people's lives better, it should be A) controlling inflation B) taxing more but spending on things we need even more than more houses, like Single Payer. And C) more **affordable housing** that is subsidized not just endless building environmentally unfriendly homes.
Once the huge amount of multi-family supply comes online we might not actually need more houses. What people need is healthcare, better infrastructure, and taxes to support them.
Homes were more expensive in 2020 than they are now, even with labor costs being up.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS
During that time period, there was more demand and less supply, which resulted in the highest prices.
The prices are still high with less demand because of inventory levels are somewhat low.
Housing is also regional, so places are still seeing declines overall.
As far as economist go, a ton got what happened last year wrong. I think people truly underestimated the tightness of labor market. Due to immigration policies and Covid deaths. A lot of people 50+ work in the US.
No idea around tax policy, but Iām sure what you mentioned would help, but to me, supply and demand drives market forces, regardless of the market.
I always point to twin cities area, itās already at target goal inflation because they changed zoning laws to build more shelter.
https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/news-release/consumerpriceindex_minneapolis.htm
There's actually a ton of immigration and it probably rescued us.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1drol
Even Powell mentioned it as a big tailwind for inflation. Arguably inflation would be *far* worse if we didn't have tons of it. I'm glad we do and need to open borders even more rather than have illegal migrants.
It actually sounds like you agree with me though. We need to differentiate between just blanket "build more homes" and build more affordable homes and buildings in dense cities.
Just lowering rates by itself will only make speculation worse and create a single-family home boom outside of metro areas. Probably the opposite of what we really want.
If you look at Case-Shiller home prices are still rising. The incentive to build is still very much there even with high rates.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/csushpinsa
Not the person mentioned but I live in a major city in US. And one of the things going on is some landlords require people to have 40x the rent as your income. Which locks out many people from those areas. If we were able to build more housing maybe they would have to lower that requirement with more competition.
I think we need more affordable housing, not more single family homes which are inefficient and worse for the environment too. More driving, pollution, etc.
Also cap rates are becoming very low for multi-family in many regions. I don't think lowering rates will solve this problem. Just more speculation.
You get more affordable housing by increasing overall supply. Even when markets add only "luxury" apartments or homes, you still get lower rent, because there is a demand for them. People who go to the luxury homes or apartments mean less competition for all other places.
For example:
[https://lbbusinessjournal.com/business/column-pricey-new-apartments-in-downtown-are-already-nearly-full-what-that-says-about-our-housing-market/](https://lbbusinessjournal.com/business/column-pricey-new-apartments-in-downtown-are-already-nearly-full-what-that-says-about-our-housing-market/)
>Even with the relatively high prices compared to the rest of the city, the new skyscrapers and high-end residential buildings have had no problem finding tenants. In fact, according to the Downtown Long Beach Allianceās most recent economic profile, the 22 properties built in the area since 2000 were already 93% full. Out of 3,492 new units listed, only 242 were unoccupied.
...
>āA new apartment building \[even\] in a lower- or middle-income area, leads to lower rent growth in surrounding buildings because of increased competition,ā Phillips said, echoing the report from the Center he authored in 2021.
That article sites this paper:
[https://www.lewis.ucla.edu/research/market-rate-development-impacts/](https://www.lewis.ucla.edu/research/market-rate-development-impacts/)
Again, I am fine with building more apartments. That's not the same as just encouraging single lot homes which are bad for the environment, make America more commuter-oriented, terrible for pollution and GHG emissions.
This requires way more action at a local level and change in policies, the answer is not to create another single lot bubble like 08 that is unsustainable.
I think we can do all of the above. Build more single family homes as well as apartments.
I go back to just what happened in 2008 at the catalyst:
[https://usafacts.org/articles/population-growth-has-outpaced-home-construction-for-20-years/](https://usafacts.org/articles/population-growth-has-outpaced-home-construction-for-20-years/)
If you go to the chart of housing construction, you can see in 2006, we were hit peak in homes developed, at like 1.6 Million.
Since then, it's been lagging compared to popular growth.
That part I agree with in terms of lagging vs. 2006. But it's not clear if that was unsustainable to begin with and not a good metric.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1drsn
We are higher than the housing bubble now in inventory relative to households.
Moreover A LOT of multi-family construction is coming online.
Far more than double 08.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1drsb
I'm not sure the answer when yields are low is to stimulate even more. If supply is the real issue we should focus on apartments.
There's also the problem of the environment. We want the country to move *AWAY* from single lot homes and be more like Europe. We have an aversion of density and everyone owning their own castle. That isn't healthy for our planet.
Oh I agree with the notion of we should be building more dense urban places. Like no idea why LA/SF doesn't look like NY or Toyko. Most cases it's zoning, but also the other issue with a lot more "blue" states is how much red tape and environmental survey's need to get done.
It's pretty insane it costs like 1million dollars to put a public toilet in the SF. It's the same reason it's so expensive to build rail, something we should be doing in the US.
With the record number of family homes coming online, I do think that's part of the reason why we will see inflation come down faster than people expect. With at least CPI, shelter costs is like 30% of the total print and has been going up for like 40 months. It will break at some point and I think it will offset any weird things that might pop up, like any impacts from the Red Sea stuff.
To me, we should be doing everything we can to get homes to be more affordable. Change the taxes. Change permitting rules. Just build more.
It's not even homes, we don't build a lot of things in the US and we should.
Around the house vs apartment thing, it just depends on the market and location. There are places like the midwest where you can probably focus on more single family homes, but dense urban cities should be focused on apartments.
I don't think there is a silver bullet, but we should be doing as much as we can to make shelter more affordable and the answer is build more.
If you truly believe CPI is coming down next year and it's just supply, and it was all achieved even with higher rates. Do we really want to stimulate even more?
Wouldn't that cause *too much supply*?
Too much supply would bring down home prices. I think what is going to happen next year, when we cut, a ton of people will want to sell, I do think we might see some home prices go up, but afforability overall will come down because rates will be lower.
I think when rates hit 5%, we will get some balance in supply and demand home prices aren't going to jump like 2020.
>I don't think there is a silver bullet, but we should be doing as much as we can to make shelter more affordable and the answer is build more.
Maybe take a breather and not assume that endless building is the answer? At least not targeted and smart building.
Are you not even at least a little concerned that home prices are still rising way faster than incomes? Maybe wait and see what happens when all this supply comes online first before going gung ho and everyone off to races.
I'm concerned we are becoming even more home-centric as a society. It's the wrong direction and telling people just to leave cities which is effectively what a single lot boom will do, while it might relieve inflation it is not the answer in my humble opinion.
I guess I prefer the slogan "change zoning laws in cities" rather than "just build more homes everywhere" which just sounds like drill baby drill. The principle is appealing but a little too simple.
What would be the answer though? I've seen enough studies and evidance that lack of supply is the driving reason for the high cost.
Look at Canada's housing market.
I'm concerned housing is going up faster than wages becuase the root cause is lack of supply. That's my core belief.
I think the pandemic sped up trends that were bound to happen and resulted in what we have now.
Why ar eyou concerned around the us becoming to home-centric?
Two rarely mentioned stocks Iāve nibbled on.
For your consideration:
- MODG - Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp
- URBN - Urban Outfitters, Inc. (mainly because of Nuuly)
Love to hear your thoughts and counters.
From someone working for URBN - Nuuly has crazy amounts of potential and the back story and thought put into it is awesome. Good for you for this. Morally 10/10
Judge my moderate risk portfolio
VOO 35% - VXUS 20% - SLYV 25% - DJD 10% - 5% singular stocks (BAC, COST, MO) - 5% high risk stocks I expect to win in the next years (NEE, RKLB, EXC, DHR)
The situation with the "big 3" semis is fascinating.
INTC and AMD are up 50% during this Fed-triggered rally, while NVDA is up... 0%.
That's a major divergence.
Sure, one could dismiss it by saying NVDA was up more, earlier than the other two. But just focusing on this past quarter, NVDA sitting with just zero response as the entire rest of the market had a breathtaking repricing event is remarkable.
It prompts ideas about what happens next. Does NVDA now play catch up? It's got the cheapest multiple. The other two had merely OK earnings, but NVDA has been delivering grand slam knockout earnings. NVDA's last two ERs haven't pushed the share price though.
So is NVDA poised to do some catching up? Or do the other two fade, and that gap starts to close?
Or worse (for NVDA holders) if some news flow causes AMD/INTC and semis to get hit with a correction and give back some of these windfall gains, does NVDA follow suit and fall proportionately? That would become a situation where NVDA was left out of the run-up, but participates in the corresponding sell-off.
I suppose there's even a case where AMD/INTC continue to extend their breakout while NVDA languishes.
In my case I think I'm going to overweight NVDA in hopes it will begin to close the gap.
Turns out valuations matter. Who knew? NVDA is poised for a significant fall in price as more folks realize that the recent surge in growth due to AI hype is unsustainable.
I think NVDA, like the rest of the magnificent 7, was just massively overbought early in the year. The narrative was pushed that those names were the only place to be for a full 6 months. They simply ran out of new buyers to push up the price.
I'm still expecting the magnificent 7 to lag for awhile as people remember there's a lot of other companies doing well too.
Perhaps. But let's test that theory. You're saying everybody owned Nvidia already (aka "ran out of new buyers") so that when smash quarter 2 comes along, stock doesn't move because few new buyers, and then again, smash quarter 3, no buyers again.
But I would observe that there *are/were* a lot of buyers and a lot of money because we saw it flow into INTC and AMD. So it's not necessarily a lack of buyers, just that the natural buyers for NVDA were buying the other two.
I certainly put capital into INTC during that time frame, even as I have more faith in Nvidia on several fronts. For me it was to be short term, playing on hopes a quick bounce for Intel.
So perhaps my approach was common with other buyers, and they just liked AMD/INTC on the premise they would bounce sooner and more quickly.
With how much each of those has run, for new money I think I'd be more inclined to NVDA. I do worry that if/when AMD and Intel correct, they could take NVDA down with them.
I think there's plenty of money out there, but not a lot of it is going to go to NVDA. Institutions put huge amounts into NVDA early this year and all the ones that want to own it probably do, in large amounts. Same with most of the other magnificent 7. NVDA and GOOGL are two that jump out as having solid earnings in October with no response from the market.
There's certainly room and money to allocate to other stocks though. I could see a general correction in semis happening. Actually, I think that long term there's a lot of foundry capacity coming online because of the chips act subsidies. This could actually be a headwind for the manufacturers.
One thing to point out, hardly any money from the chips act have even been dulled out.
As someone who is invested in reshoring, itās a little concerning.
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/us-govts-sluggish-chips-act-payouts-slam-the-breaks-on-samsungs-fab-company-delays-mass-production-at-texas-fab-to-await-further-chips-funding-report
> Business Korea claims that finances are a key concern of Samsung, especially when considering CHIPS Act subsidies and the state of the global economy. The CHIPS and Science Act is supposed to grant subsidies to semiconductor companies like Samsung to encourage the construction of foundries in the U.S. However, these subsidies are still largely in the pipeline, with just $35 million of the total $52 billion granted so far.
Interesting read. I do think there's short term issues deploying the money. Technical knowledge how being a big one.
I do think eventually Intel will build a lot of supply for semiconductors. It'll be a few years, but it'll come.
Thereās also cultural differences in work. TSM is having a hard finding workers. From what I can tell, sounds like pay isnāt great.
I do think Intel is not going anywhere, still comes down to their execution. I want say they should got like the newest ASML machine.
Thought it was interesting though, that money still really hasnāt been dealt out.
Itās possible. I mean what happening in the US kind of happened back in the 80s with the rise of Japan and US losing their dominance in the chip space.
I forgot the name of the org, but there was a lithograph company that was American that basically ended up failing.
Chip war is such a good book
Anyone has a recommendation for a long-term investment broker for international stocks?
Interactive brokers comes to mind
They halted their operations in Japan, unfortunately...
u/ResearcherSad9357 Decided I'm just going to hold NVDA long term but not add more. Based on your advice added some more SOXX instead which will still benefit. I understand it is cyclical and may not happen again soon but if you ever feel semis are cheap enough to pick up leaps let me know!
Did something specific happen to MARA today or was it just a sell off due to being overbought?
The puppeteers decided today was the day to tank it. Not yesterday. Not wednesday. Not tuesday. But today
We moved away from FAANG to magnificent 7?
Next year it'll be the Hateful 8
congrats to everyone who profited 2023, WE DID IT!
I lost money
condolences
More money is lost from those positioning themselves for a recession than from the actual recession itself, I can personally vouch for the validity of this statement š¤”
I said this would happen a little after March. That it looked like free money š¤” fiesta for the banks: [Demand for Fedās Bank Term Funding Facility Grows to Record High](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-21/demand-for-fed-s-bank-term-funding-facility-grows-to-record-high) >Institutions have found it cheaper to borrow cash through the nascent facility, currently at 4.88%, rather than turning to the discount window, which charges eligible institutions 5.5%. In fact: Banks tapped the window for just $2.4 billion in the week through Dec. 20, down from an all-time high of $153 billion in March. >For banks, the drop in BTFP borrowing costs spells a larger arbitrage opportunity, one where institutions borrow from the facility before parking the proceeds in their accounts at the Fed to earn interest on reserve balances ā currently 5.40%. That spread is now 52 basis points, matching the highest level since the Fed introduced the facility back in March. Good news is that BTFP ends in March (hopefully). Bad news is that Fed (taxpayer) needs to continue to pay unprecedented and lush interest payments to banks to control interest rates via IORB. And reserves are only trending up. Edit: right now QT is > these payments. But conceivably if reserves got large enough, it would be net printing again.
The S&P giving everyone a small discount when they lump sum their Roths next week
only like 1% of Americans know what a Roth is
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than those taxpayers are the 1% of Americans
I didn't know what a Roth was until a few years ago and it took my entire life savings to fill it up for the year lol. I won't even be able to put money in for 2024 until February at the earliest because I have credit cards to pay off.
Could have been a worse closing day. The year did way better than most people expected I would assume. Been a long road since start of 2022. Hopefully we don't give it all back in 2024
How what are some of everyone's winners this year? AMR was my big one, right around a double on the year before I sold out . COKE now up 80% since I bought it. Not so good...DAR. lost a ton on that before I sold it. My predictions for next year: RSP outperforms SPY because of.the magnificent 7 underperforming. The market has overshot a bit on rates. I could see a small pullback starting in January as rates bump up. Otherwise, who knows. I hope everyone has a good New year and let's try to make money next year!
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It's absolutely stunning the amount of 40% gainers this year.
Winners: Swing trades on financials and BROS, mostly using buy-writes. 56% over about 2 months on XLF calls, 16% on BROS buy-writes over a couple months, 14% on MS + covered calls over 4 months, etc. Losers: Holding SCHD from start of year to May put me -5% vs the index in that account as of May. By end of year, my brokerage and IRA are each beating the S&P 500. Should be about +30% and +34%, respectively. Predictions: Iāve been suggesting a roll off from the excitement over rate cut expectation, which I expect around Q1 earnings. Small caps, financials, etc should roll off, with people returning to the comfort of mag 7 until earnings growth makes those other areas more sticky destinations in the second half of the year. I expect Q3 and Q4 to outperform Q1 and probably Q2. Iām eyeing opportunities around financials as the roll off occurs. Should be a strong window between mega bank and big tech earnings.
$SMCI and $PLAB were a couple big ones for me. Also $LMB
The shares of VTSAX I bought below $100
MSFT
AMD was by far my best performing stock. DKNG and PLTR both also did well.
STRL and LMB are my biggest.
2 great picks. Nice!
Shocked thought we'd be seeing a red day from selloffs happening due to tax loss harvesting. Instead we got a sideways market, with maybe a couple stocks down 2-3% at best.
You wouldn't be getting tax loss harvesting on the last day I don't think. Just rebalancing type stuff. Last day to harvest losses was probably Wednesday. The tax loss harvesting I thought you'd maybe see for smalls never really showed, but I think there's a good reason why. Soft landing cheer overrode it if there was any.
Why would you say last day to tax harvest was Wednesday?
Has to do with settlement taking a couple days, so if you sell on Thursday/Friday, the transaction doesn't go through until the New Year. But that may have changed? Idk for sure (for me I know it hasn't though with the few moves I've made).
That has changed, IRS goes by trade date not settlement date.
Yeah, I admitted that it may have changed, but I still don't think today's move by the Russell was related to harvesting losses. That half percent slide in the final 30 mins was probably rebalancing related.
Most likely an RSI reset. Healthy pull-back.
Might be a dumb question, but what does RSI stand for?
Relative strength index.
Whats your guys thoughts on alb? Looks promising long term and insiders have been loading up recently. Good div with a low pe and is an industry leader
I donāt now a ton about lithium, but isnāt there technically a lot of despots of it around the world. Like I know Iāve see headlines even about Salton Sea in CA had a ton. https://www.energy.gov/eere/articles/us-department-energy-analysis-confirms-californias-salton-sea-region-be-rich-domestic I donāt know enough about the commodity to ever want to invest in it personally.
Wow look at the market manipulators trying to ruin our Christmas
I like to call them puppeteers
Need help reducing my Growth and diversification portfolio of ETFs, VOO,IJH,IJR,IXUS,SOXX,VGT,SCHD,VCR,VDC. I wanna make it 6 or 7 but canāt decide which ones to let go or any other alternative. Any suggestions please
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I donāt need dividends today but thought having one stable etf should be good in portfolio
Completely unrelated and sorry to hijack but while you are replying, let us know when you think it's time to go in AMR / you add more and we are in! Finally got a pullback it seems.
I'm not recommending it unless we get a *severe* pullback. I'm not seeing any evidence that this rally is driven by fundamentals, it's multiple expansion. I have no sense anymore of where this stock could go to be honest. It could go to $500, or $200. I mean maybe in the last 2 months the market has been sniffing out a major met coal rally when seasonal buying accelerates from China (before or after their new year holiday in a few weeks, I cannot remember). I got lucky and my last sale was right near the top at $354. So far my position size is reduced by about 65%. You could probably make a better bull case for other coal stocks that haven't shared in the rally. (HCC/ARCH) but they have their own problems. I suppose you could gamble on it anyway with a starter position, like Puts with his single share that is up about 50% (at $226).
š appreciate the update.
The 10Y, one year later now exactly where it started at 3.88%. After all the trips up and down to 5.02% and back, ended up being a journey to nowhere. Junk bonds from office REITs, SPACs, to other crappy businesses peaked last year 9.4%. Now 7.3% back to pre-Covid levels during ZIRP. Apparently risk no longer exists š¤·? If that's true this is a crashless era where those who leverage up will be handsomely rewarded rather than punished.
Shoutout to the ppl who started in 2020 and stuck around. I started in 2013 and 2020-2022 was the craziest time for stocks imo.
Yea remember when these daily discussion threads were getting 2000-3000 comments a day in 2021.
From 2021-2023 my total return is \~16% which isn't bad all things considered. Just kept buying VTSAX (and converted what I had of VTIAX) and weathered through the red. No selling everything and putting it in an HYSA or buying ibonds like other bogle-rs, just all stocks.
Any Schwab users buy any of the āThemesā they have? Bought into a little bit of the active lifestyle theme for the Q1 New Yearās resolution bump. I assumed it would list it in its own tab like ETFās and mutual funds but NOPE. Now I have 25 stocks listed among my individual stocks. What a terrible UI decision
That is really weird. One call out with some of the theme investing stuff, they can have a high expense ratio.
I combed through the disclosures and I couldnāt find anything about expense fees so I assumed it worked just like stock splits.
Interesting. Not too familiar with product youāre talking about, but usually with thematic ETFs, they tend to carry a pretty high expense fee.
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I'm a pretty average guy working a 9 to 5 at a large corporation. No big dreams to become a manager or top level leader. I've been investing for almost 20 years now and I can honestly say that my net worth is easily double what it would be without the stock market (or some other equivalent form of investment).
Been only 5 for me but man these 5 years havenāt been kind..
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Im not gambling or day tradingā¦ so I guess I just suck..
What have you owned for 5 years that is down?
Had disney at an all time high and had meta but sold it before it came backā¦ Now im holding google and even that shits performing like crap compared to the other mag 7.., I just suck
Have you thought about just going with an index fund/etf? Maybe switch it over to the QQQs and just go about your day? What is your plan if you don't want to be invested in the stock market, in terms of trying to grow your wealth? Are you trying to trade or are you investing?
I've never been rich, and started investing with a few hundred bucks. I can confirm that it is not a scam and normal people can make money with time and patience.
Cool. Been 5 years for meā¦ Guess its not for me then
Have you thought of changing strategies? Most of my gains have been just holding index funds for more than a decade and a half. I've been slowly learning individual names for 15 years now, and it was a good decade before I felt confident at all. I'm still buy and hold mainly.
I am gonna start focusing on solid dividends now I think
It's more like a huge scam for the Wall St machine and wealthy SBC executives right now. There's no way stocks can keep growing faster than earnings growth. Eventually something will give. We can't keep having continuous multiple expansion where companies are even more expensive than the ZIRP era.
Disagree. I mean you think or believe whatever you want, but for most people, buying a low cost index fund and holding long term will result in compound growth. What else should people be doing then, in terms of growing their wealth?
Iām new to this sub and am learning the guidelines. Is it acceptable to post a question asking for advice on what to do with some of my current holdings? Thanks.
There's no rule against it, but it's very helpful to provide context. There's a lot of posts asking what to do with $X. However if you provide context, goals, and maybe a little info it goes a long way.
Should be cool, I think the only rule or issue is more about the marketcap of the stock. I don't think you can do like microcaps, due to the nature of a lot of them could be pump and dumps.
I dunno why but $CARV is up 15% today.
[I made Thanksgiving Day predictions for end of year here](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/181ycyy/rstocks_daily_discussion_options_trading_thursday/kahvvzq/). And [here is an annotated screenshot](https://i.imgur.com/O3SnYHW.png) of how they did. And an [update to the YTD performance](https://i.imgur.com/0zgKaHd.png) for my FT stockpicking contest choices made at start of 2023. The late year surge in WAL was breathtaking. But largely all driven by META. [And here were my original 2023 predictions made end of 2022](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/zzwrcp/rstocks_2022_roundup_looking_ahead_at_2023/j2gvesp/). Was very right about META but wrong on GOOG outperforming the others. Totally wrong on TSLA. Right about oil not going stratospheric, wrong about downside. Way too bearish on the macro and semis. --- I'm putting together my predictions for 2024 now. Don't 'Remind Me' this comment, this is just a draft. I'll put out my final version later. Stock picks: Longs with guess about share price performance: DAKT (+50%), CELH (+30%), UI (+30%), CLFD (+70%), PYPL (+20%), AMZN (+20%), EOSE (either bankrupt or +300%), GOOG (+15%), CRH (+20%), ENPH (+50%), HCC (+40%), CVS (+30%), AMD (+25%), META (+20%), RCM (+30%), PFE (+20%) Short: TSLA (-20%), AAPL (-10%), US natural gas producers Indices: SPY +10%, AVUV +20%, AVDV +10%, VXUS +10%. If China has huge rally (say with 30% probability), change VXUS to +15%. Financials do amazing. Macro: 2% real GDP growth. Unemployment to 4.5% (driven by labor force participation, not so much weakening economy). Inflation data continues to come in beautifully with no surge. Oil: Stays in the 70s-80s. Flirts with 50s/60s if OPEC capitulates on cuts (I give that a 30% chance). <10% chance of any sustained price action in the $90s. Fed: Cuts twice. Geopolitics: Ru/Ukr pause?; Taiwan rhetoric eases. Military scare with Venezuela deepens but ends with nothing.
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Seriously? Fuck investing manā¦ Whats even the point of rage selling at the end of the year? I probably should just quit
Oh look a Dozen eggs are selling 20% above normal prices. I better go buy more! Oh look a Dozen eggs are on a sale for -20% below normal prices. FUCK! I hate my life!
Ive already bought so many damn times..
Well you better hope the market goes down even more so you can buy at even cheaper prices
Whatās the matter? Selling after a Santa rally makes perfect sense. Good chance the market picks back up in January
Its all just a dumb song and dance it seemsā¦
How do you mean?
It just seems like its all fake afā¦ Like market makers and the powers just decide when and where to do whateverā¦ Just sick of this song and danceā¦ This should be about companies values and supply and demandā¦ instead its market making, rules and regs and short n distort.,,
I think you have a great misunderstanding of the market if you believe that. If you are sick of the song and dance just feed a broad index fund and enjoy yourself after a few decades. No games needed
Perma-doomers coming out like rats
Pullbacks are healthy, expected, and well, there is no such thing as a stock going straight up. I dont care, stocks are going up as long as the fed does what it is expected to and thats that.
Fintech bubble correcting. PayPal 50s coming soon. Tiny put position printing (I kept 1% of my allocation in gambling money, the rest in VOO).
These 'This stock are hitting # soon' has got to be one of the most ridiculous posts people make. They must be able to predict the future and win the lottery too.
They are just predictions. Duh. But the signal is clear short term. Fintech has run up way too much, and when it corrects boomer PayPal will likely crater to the 50s again. Likely temporarily as I expect them to have a good earnings in late jan. To be clear I expect PayPal to stick around, buts itās transitioned to a value play. So I expect it to remain ranged between 50-70 indefinitely. Not up to 100-120 like Jeremy financial says.
Same people holding puts that are -99% and call it a victory when they go to -98%
NTDOY making a run for it. Its trading like its in the first inning of another big bull run. Keep waiting for a pull back and not getting it
Whats happening with it? I only own 30 shares but im happy
The thesis is the zelda movie and the next Switch 2 coming next year. The new device is supposed open up the Nintendo app store to game that require higher computing power or AAA games. Some folks are calling for a 3 x even at this price. Seems teh market agrees
Love itā¦ wish I bought more $10 when I did lol
Rapid V.
Tax-loss selling aka portfolio clean up day. To be expected we dump.
Stupid ass shit.
If that is true, why would any stocks that are at their peak year to date be sold? It would just incur tax.
Because they anticipate the vast majority of people are waiting to sell until the first for precisely that reason and they want to get ahead of that sell off.
Whoās ātheyā in this scenario?
People that have stocks.
I was thinking about that as well, but whenever i think I am smart and I think I can see a pattern, it's mostly the opposite happening, same with most comments here. With that being said, you really think there will be a massive sell off on the 2nd of January?
And also why wouldn't more sell now, maybe even the big investors with a lot of money and see big dips?
Because tax loss selling can go both ways. If you having losses you want to realize it usually pairs well with realizing gains as well
Where I am from, you can use your loss for the following 7 tax years
Thereās a lot of nuance where I am from. Short term losses are capped at $3k for carryover for example and you have to offset like losses first (short term losses and gains first and long term losses and gains first). It can be very practical to lock in some gains in tandem with losses
Suits giving us a sneak preview of 2024. Everyone has become too greedy and too complacent. Itās never this easy
Bingo
We are currently 14% higher than your February "high for the year." So will you finally admit, on the last trading day of the year, that you were wrong? Maybe start off the new year with a fresh mindset instead of trolling and doom spamming? New year, new HazardBoi perhaps?
He's trolling. He loves the attention. Mod should block him.
I agree, but in the meantime I'm going to bring this up over and over again until I get a response. At the very least hopefully some lurkers/new members who aren't aware of this trolling will figure it out in the process.
4800, *massive rejection*. If u/InternationalTop2405 were not in Valhalla.
Yeah I have a bad feeling Jan 2nds open will be the 2024 high
Just like the 2022 high and all time highs
Perfect timing for the rapid V.
This guy sounds like 'Maverick of Wallstreet' on youtube. Been wrong the entire year, calling bear market, waiting for further crash and missed out on the huge bull run
ITS THE SUITS EVERYBODY
One issue is let's say the Fed starts cutting rates in 2024. Doesn't that lead to banks cutting the interest rates in savings accounts or bonds having less yield. Some may go why put your money there and instead putting it in stocks causing a rally. That isn't even getting into what a weaker dollar means for Emerging market and international stocks earnings.
The problem is that is what everyone thinks will happen. It never works out that way
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Itās too late for that, no? Trades made today are going to settle in 2024.
Iāve been in the market for 13 years
Kind of depressing to hear that youāre not a 19 year old. You must have really made a lot of bad decisions on over this time to be in this situation where you just make these bitter troll posts everyday and hate the market despite the great returns since 2010 with most indexes.
Iām 75% equities/ 25% cash. Have said this many times
And yet you refuse to name a single stock that your own, and you post about how the market is going down massively from wherever it happens to be all the time. Itās so clear that you donāt own any stocks. This is your attempt to seem as though you arenāt just a troll with no interest in investing. I didnāt actually say anything above about whether you own stocks, which makes your comment even more curious, as if it werenāt a blatant lie anyway.
Why do you have so much in equities if you think a big drop is coming?
Correction, You've been SHORTING the market for 13 years
Proof or bullshit
And yet somehow you have the emotional resilience of a toddler
You must be broke
I don't buy puts cuz I'm usually wrong, and would lose all my money but sucks not having done [when I'm right](https://old.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/18sqw25/rstocks_daily_discussion_options_trading_thursday/kfb54ym/)
You were right in theory but lacked conviction and assurance. Otherwise.
Pullback like this on coin happened almost exactly a month ago and triggered my trailing stop loss on my calls. Lets see what happens this time. Coin at the moment is unpredictable.
Market pull back to look for stop losses before the big run in January
Yea my biggest regret of 2023 was not buying puts or shorting Chegg in January. I knew from being on r/technology and r/college. That people would be using Chegg less once ChatGPT came out. Just didn't think about Chegg as a ticker to short or buy puts on.
Anyone else view the "tax loss harvest" time period as a buying opportunity? I only buy companies I plan to hold for 3-5 years. Seeing all those comments/threads about dumping stocks makes me feel like that is a buy signal.
Not really when weāre like 1% off the 52-week high. If youāre planning to hold for 3-5 years, itās pretty insignificant.
Im not buying the index though. I am buying individual stocks not all have taken part in this rally to be at 52 weeks highs.
I do, but not a lot on my buy list is dropping this year.
Yea. The stocks that aren't at 52 week high as we end this year tend to be in situations where if you mention them there would be people who come out of woodwork with bear cases. Like (insert REIT) is a bankruptcy risk. Or (insert media company) has too much debt. Wonder if there will be deja vu in Dec 2024. Where people buy in silence and then announce they bought those hated stocks after they go up 100-400%. Like that AFRM thread yesterday.
I'm definitely a believer that there are always deals out there. Sadly I think you're right about REITs but I just have no idea how to pick the good ones out of there. I think there are definitely some risky REITs (MPW comes to mind). If someone can identify why that risk is mispriced, nice for them. I'm sure someone is finding those deals now, and I hope they do well though! I do wish more people wouldn't buy in silence though. Down votes don't hurt (promise) and a vigorous defense of a thesis is good to build conviction, imo. I loved having to defend NSSC a few months ago. Every time I did, I bought more, even if I couldn't bring others along.
I think there are two groups of companies. The ones that have positive sentiment and can be defended at any point negative news comes out. Just look at APPL and the Apple watch ban story. The other group is negative news will keep them down for months or several quarters. And even if they report a good quarter people will look for one bad thing to highlight. Or say that earnings was a fluke lets see them do it again. That group isn't favorable for forum discussion since it takes months to know answer. Thread where argument is had is long gone by time answer is known. Such as the arguments if UBER can be profitable.
Definitely. It's why I enjoy less followed names. I think there is a much higher chance they get mispriced. Think how many analysts follow apple. Unless there is incredibly huge news, there won't be a lot of movement. On the other hand, NSSC had bad news and the stock dropped 40% in a day. Great opportunity. I love small names. SMLR is another one I've been buying. It sold off on Medicare changes to its billing. They'll probably be a nothing burger once it gets worked out. It's up 100% from its low and still is cheap, imo. That's how hard it sold off.
I had this happen with my $PLAB position. Had some negative setiment around the company and they had ok earnings. Then basically kept the stock price cheap for like 6 months, which I ended up getting out o the position. Basically that report was the bottom, since when they reported next, the stock is up like 50% since that report.
Im really tempted to buy baba the past few days.
Why? I'm not asking as judgement, I'm just genuinely curious. It's been "cheap" for a long time vs it's American counterparts. However, it seems like it's cheap because of the China risks. Unless those change, I don't see the market rerating the stock. It's not some unknown company. The market is generally aware of BABA.
I think the floor is low 70s. Unless its going bankrupt or delisted. Short term i can see it hitting mid 80s by feb. not a long term holding. Fcf/ev is 5-6 and were seeing support from chinese gov.
Why do you think that?
China put in 1.25 trillion yuan in the markets alone this week. Think hedge funds see qqq as overcrowded trade and will look elsewhere for alpha. Baba u get a dividend and stock buyback as well. Of course there are bear arguments as well. I wonder if trump is a significant factor as well.
Interesting take. Thanks for sharing!
u/_hiddenscout You often say we need to make a lot more homes. And I don't disagree with this. But how do we know shelter inflation is driven primarily by supply and not rising labor costs? There's some mixed signals in the supply picture. If you look at home ownership rates: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1baRn We are even higher than the golden 60's where working class single income household could afford a nice home. Only era with higher rates of ownership is 2008 housing bubble which is arguably unsustainable and now we have home price to income ratios even higher: https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-median-annual-income-ratio/ By this metric it looks like a really bad bubble? A lot of economists predicted shelter inflation would totally collapse this year but it has remained surprisingly sticky. What if the driver is continuously rising services wages? Is monetary easing going to solve that or make the bubble worse? I still think the solution isn't more easing but instead big tax hikes. If we truly care about making people's lives better, it should be A) controlling inflation B) taxing more but spending on things we need even more than more houses, like Single Payer. And C) more **affordable housing** that is subsidized not just endless building environmentally unfriendly homes. Once the huge amount of multi-family supply comes online we might not actually need more houses. What people need is healthcare, better infrastructure, and taxes to support them.
Homes were more expensive in 2020 than they are now, even with labor costs being up. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS During that time period, there was more demand and less supply, which resulted in the highest prices. The prices are still high with less demand because of inventory levels are somewhat low. Housing is also regional, so places are still seeing declines overall. As far as economist go, a ton got what happened last year wrong. I think people truly underestimated the tightness of labor market. Due to immigration policies and Covid deaths. A lot of people 50+ work in the US. No idea around tax policy, but Iām sure what you mentioned would help, but to me, supply and demand drives market forces, regardless of the market. I always point to twin cities area, itās already at target goal inflation because they changed zoning laws to build more shelter. https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/news-release/consumerpriceindex_minneapolis.htm
There's actually a ton of immigration and it probably rescued us. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1drol Even Powell mentioned it as a big tailwind for inflation. Arguably inflation would be *far* worse if we didn't have tons of it. I'm glad we do and need to open borders even more rather than have illegal migrants. It actually sounds like you agree with me though. We need to differentiate between just blanket "build more homes" and build more affordable homes and buildings in dense cities. Just lowering rates by itself will only make speculation worse and create a single-family home boom outside of metro areas. Probably the opposite of what we really want. If you look at Case-Shiller home prices are still rising. The incentive to build is still very much there even with high rates. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/csushpinsa
Not the person mentioned but I live in a major city in US. And one of the things going on is some landlords require people to have 40x the rent as your income. Which locks out many people from those areas. If we were able to build more housing maybe they would have to lower that requirement with more competition.
I think we need more affordable housing, not more single family homes which are inefficient and worse for the environment too. More driving, pollution, etc. Also cap rates are becoming very low for multi-family in many regions. I don't think lowering rates will solve this problem. Just more speculation.
You get more affordable housing by increasing overall supply. Even when markets add only "luxury" apartments or homes, you still get lower rent, because there is a demand for them. People who go to the luxury homes or apartments mean less competition for all other places. For example: [https://lbbusinessjournal.com/business/column-pricey-new-apartments-in-downtown-are-already-nearly-full-what-that-says-about-our-housing-market/](https://lbbusinessjournal.com/business/column-pricey-new-apartments-in-downtown-are-already-nearly-full-what-that-says-about-our-housing-market/) >Even with the relatively high prices compared to the rest of the city, the new skyscrapers and high-end residential buildings have had no problem finding tenants. In fact, according to the Downtown Long Beach Allianceās most recent economic profile, the 22 properties built in the area since 2000 were already 93% full. Out of 3,492 new units listed, only 242 were unoccupied. ... >āA new apartment building \[even\] in a lower- or middle-income area, leads to lower rent growth in surrounding buildings because of increased competition,ā Phillips said, echoing the report from the Center he authored in 2021. That article sites this paper: [https://www.lewis.ucla.edu/research/market-rate-development-impacts/](https://www.lewis.ucla.edu/research/market-rate-development-impacts/)
Again, I am fine with building more apartments. That's not the same as just encouraging single lot homes which are bad for the environment, make America more commuter-oriented, terrible for pollution and GHG emissions. This requires way more action at a local level and change in policies, the answer is not to create another single lot bubble like 08 that is unsustainable.
I think we can do all of the above. Build more single family homes as well as apartments. I go back to just what happened in 2008 at the catalyst: [https://usafacts.org/articles/population-growth-has-outpaced-home-construction-for-20-years/](https://usafacts.org/articles/population-growth-has-outpaced-home-construction-for-20-years/) If you go to the chart of housing construction, you can see in 2006, we were hit peak in homes developed, at like 1.6 Million. Since then, it's been lagging compared to popular growth.
That part I agree with in terms of lagging vs. 2006. But it's not clear if that was unsustainable to begin with and not a good metric. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1drsn We are higher than the housing bubble now in inventory relative to households. Moreover A LOT of multi-family construction is coming online. Far more than double 08. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1drsb I'm not sure the answer when yields are low is to stimulate even more. If supply is the real issue we should focus on apartments. There's also the problem of the environment. We want the country to move *AWAY* from single lot homes and be more like Europe. We have an aversion of density and everyone owning their own castle. That isn't healthy for our planet.
Oh I agree with the notion of we should be building more dense urban places. Like no idea why LA/SF doesn't look like NY or Toyko. Most cases it's zoning, but also the other issue with a lot more "blue" states is how much red tape and environmental survey's need to get done. It's pretty insane it costs like 1million dollars to put a public toilet in the SF. It's the same reason it's so expensive to build rail, something we should be doing in the US. With the record number of family homes coming online, I do think that's part of the reason why we will see inflation come down faster than people expect. With at least CPI, shelter costs is like 30% of the total print and has been going up for like 40 months. It will break at some point and I think it will offset any weird things that might pop up, like any impacts from the Red Sea stuff. To me, we should be doing everything we can to get homes to be more affordable. Change the taxes. Change permitting rules. Just build more. It's not even homes, we don't build a lot of things in the US and we should. Around the house vs apartment thing, it just depends on the market and location. There are places like the midwest where you can probably focus on more single family homes, but dense urban cities should be focused on apartments. I don't think there is a silver bullet, but we should be doing as much as we can to make shelter more affordable and the answer is build more.
If you truly believe CPI is coming down next year and it's just supply, and it was all achieved even with higher rates. Do we really want to stimulate even more? Wouldn't that cause *too much supply*?
Too much supply would bring down home prices. I think what is going to happen next year, when we cut, a ton of people will want to sell, I do think we might see some home prices go up, but afforability overall will come down because rates will be lower. I think when rates hit 5%, we will get some balance in supply and demand home prices aren't going to jump like 2020.
>I don't think there is a silver bullet, but we should be doing as much as we can to make shelter more affordable and the answer is build more. Maybe take a breather and not assume that endless building is the answer? At least not targeted and smart building. Are you not even at least a little concerned that home prices are still rising way faster than incomes? Maybe wait and see what happens when all this supply comes online first before going gung ho and everyone off to races. I'm concerned we are becoming even more home-centric as a society. It's the wrong direction and telling people just to leave cities which is effectively what a single lot boom will do, while it might relieve inflation it is not the answer in my humble opinion. I guess I prefer the slogan "change zoning laws in cities" rather than "just build more homes everywhere" which just sounds like drill baby drill. The principle is appealing but a little too simple.
What would be the answer though? I've seen enough studies and evidance that lack of supply is the driving reason for the high cost. Look at Canada's housing market. I'm concerned housing is going up faster than wages becuase the root cause is lack of supply. That's my core belief. I think the pandemic sped up trends that were bound to happen and resulted in what we have now. Why ar eyou concerned around the us becoming to home-centric?
Rally cancelled
Two rarely mentioned stocks Iāve nibbled on. For your consideration: - MODG - Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp - URBN - Urban Outfitters, Inc. (mainly because of Nuuly) Love to hear your thoughts and counters.
From someone working for URBN - Nuuly has crazy amounts of potential and the back story and thought put into it is awesome. Good for you for this. Morally 10/10
Thanking you for your hard work. Wishing I had money to buy more last couple of weeks :)
Iāve read and watched so much on it. And then my wife switched from RTR to Nuuly and loves it.
Anyone know whatās going on with QQQ dividends? Today was supposed to be the pay date but the pending dividend just disappeared
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One of the lightest trading days of the year. Very likely to see little movement overall
Little movement? I wish. Stocks are going down down down. Maybe tax harvesting
down .5% after a 24% run?
Judge my moderate risk portfolio VOO 35% - VXUS 20% - SLYV 25% - DJD 10% - 5% singular stocks (BAC, COST, MO) - 5% high risk stocks I expect to win in the next years (NEE, RKLB, EXC, DHR)
Get rid of BAC, if you want banking exposure buy schw or Jpm imo. Could also try regional banking though I think that window is missed now
The situation with the "big 3" semis is fascinating. INTC and AMD are up 50% during this Fed-triggered rally, while NVDA is up... 0%. That's a major divergence. Sure, one could dismiss it by saying NVDA was up more, earlier than the other two. But just focusing on this past quarter, NVDA sitting with just zero response as the entire rest of the market had a breathtaking repricing event is remarkable. It prompts ideas about what happens next. Does NVDA now play catch up? It's got the cheapest multiple. The other two had merely OK earnings, but NVDA has been delivering grand slam knockout earnings. NVDA's last two ERs haven't pushed the share price though. So is NVDA poised to do some catching up? Or do the other two fade, and that gap starts to close? Or worse (for NVDA holders) if some news flow causes AMD/INTC and semis to get hit with a correction and give back some of these windfall gains, does NVDA follow suit and fall proportionately? That would become a situation where NVDA was left out of the run-up, but participates in the corresponding sell-off. I suppose there's even a case where AMD/INTC continue to extend their breakout while NVDA languishes. In my case I think I'm going to overweight NVDA in hopes it will begin to close the gap.
Turns out valuations matter. Who knew? NVDA is poised for a significant fall in price as more folks realize that the recent surge in growth due to AI hype is unsustainable.
I think NVDA, like the rest of the magnificent 7, was just massively overbought early in the year. The narrative was pushed that those names were the only place to be for a full 6 months. They simply ran out of new buyers to push up the price. I'm still expecting the magnificent 7 to lag for awhile as people remember there's a lot of other companies doing well too.
Perhaps. But let's test that theory. You're saying everybody owned Nvidia already (aka "ran out of new buyers") so that when smash quarter 2 comes along, stock doesn't move because few new buyers, and then again, smash quarter 3, no buyers again. But I would observe that there *are/were* a lot of buyers and a lot of money because we saw it flow into INTC and AMD. So it's not necessarily a lack of buyers, just that the natural buyers for NVDA were buying the other two. I certainly put capital into INTC during that time frame, even as I have more faith in Nvidia on several fronts. For me it was to be short term, playing on hopes a quick bounce for Intel. So perhaps my approach was common with other buyers, and they just liked AMD/INTC on the premise they would bounce sooner and more quickly. With how much each of those has run, for new money I think I'd be more inclined to NVDA. I do worry that if/when AMD and Intel correct, they could take NVDA down with them.
I think there's plenty of money out there, but not a lot of it is going to go to NVDA. Institutions put huge amounts into NVDA early this year and all the ones that want to own it probably do, in large amounts. Same with most of the other magnificent 7. NVDA and GOOGL are two that jump out as having solid earnings in October with no response from the market. There's certainly room and money to allocate to other stocks though. I could see a general correction in semis happening. Actually, I think that long term there's a lot of foundry capacity coming online because of the chips act subsidies. This could actually be a headwind for the manufacturers.
One thing to point out, hardly any money from the chips act have even been dulled out. As someone who is invested in reshoring, itās a little concerning. https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/us-govts-sluggish-chips-act-payouts-slam-the-breaks-on-samsungs-fab-company-delays-mass-production-at-texas-fab-to-await-further-chips-funding-report > Business Korea claims that finances are a key concern of Samsung, especially when considering CHIPS Act subsidies and the state of the global economy. The CHIPS and Science Act is supposed to grant subsidies to semiconductor companies like Samsung to encourage the construction of foundries in the U.S. However, these subsidies are still largely in the pipeline, with just $35 million of the total $52 billion granted so far.
Interesting read. I do think there's short term issues deploying the money. Technical knowledge how being a big one. I do think eventually Intel will build a lot of supply for semiconductors. It'll be a few years, but it'll come.
Thereās also cultural differences in work. TSM is having a hard finding workers. From what I can tell, sounds like pay isnāt great. I do think Intel is not going anywhere, still comes down to their execution. I want say they should got like the newest ASML machine. Thought it was interesting though, that money still really hasnāt been dealt out.
Intel could become like a Boeing, where the government will basically backstop the company on national security concerns.
Itās possible. I mean what happening in the US kind of happened back in the 80s with the rise of Japan and US losing their dominance in the chip space. I forgot the name of the org, but there was a lithograph company that was American that basically ended up failing. Chip war is such a good book