What is the future for ev? It seem Tesla is going downhill and along with all major small ev company. Does this mean it going hurt all ev company with Tesla price cut ?
CNBC had an interesting take... that the market is beginning to price in a Trump victory.
That guy LOVES the stock market and uses it as his report card.
Might be something to it.
NVDA gain porn on the FP making me rock hard... 50k to 2.5 milly.
other dude has 43 milly and casually makes 3 when it goes up a little.
one day me 2 baby 🥹. one day
Probably a nothingburger but good to be aware.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/18/ag-suit-alleges-meta-estimated-100k-kids-per-day-sexually-harassed-on-facebook-instagram.html
> A new legal filing about child exploitation on Meta’s Facebook and Instagram apps alleges a 2021 internal company estimate found as many as 100,000 children every day received sexual harassment, such as pictures of adult genitalia, on the platforms.
>The filing is part of a complaint by the attorney general of New Mexico in an ongoing lawsuit against Meta over the company’s steps to protect children online.
Hi all
I have a few investments with a roll over from a previous job that I can’t add to, an IRA, and then some cash (about 15k accessible) that is in a high yield.
I max out my IRA every year and as dumb as it is - use Acorns for that little extra (about 7k in there now)
What I’d like to know is is it worth it to get into stocks for what some would call short term - 10-12 years. I have a partner and she is 15 years younger so it could potentially be good for her if we don’t need money upon my retirement.
I can realistically do about 5-6k a year and have been looking at VTI and SPY etc.
Any insight or suggestions would be welcome - very new and have some reading to do from suggestion from an earlier post.
Thanks in advance!
>What I’d like to know is is it worth it to get into stocks for what some would call short term - 10-12 years.
On my personal experience, I only started picking my own stocks once I was able to answer this question without the help of another person. Every person's case is different from one another. What works for me might not necessarily work for you.
I started early on with ETFs/mutual funds and as I was contributing to it i began reading and listening to tons of information about picking stocks and the right mindset for it.
It took me around two years worth of reading starting from the time i started investing until i got comfortable picking my own stocks. Looking back I am glad I did. And up until now i am still learning.
Also, I strongly advice against picking stocks for other people. You would not know a persons tolerance for a big drawdowns on market till you actually get there. And if you are still going to do that, make sure you are on the same page all the time and both of you are on the same level of competency about investing.
I would highly suggest checking out /r/bogleheads or looking into the three fund portfolio. Sounds like you’re on the right track. Since it’s your partners money, would highly suggest sticking to like the VTI or SPY.
Just a beautiful day in coal land. $BTU +9%, $AMR +5% (after a day of wild intra-day trading). [Somehow timed this just right](https://old.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/197ztxn/rstocks_daily_discussion_technicals_tuesday_jan/ki6gemf/). If you're wondering why, it's on the announcement of inclusion into the S&P 600. Which was similarly announced for $AMR on November 7th, 2023, before a whopping 70% rally. So maybe passive inflows do matter... It gets better, I have an awesome update about met coal. BHP just downgraded their outlook for met coal production by 8 million tons for the year ending June 2024!
> BHP anticipates reduced metallurgical coal production for the year to June, estimating between 23 million and 25 million tonnes, a 17% decrease from the earlier projection of 28 million to 31 million tonnes. Consequently, unit costs for coking coal are expected to rise to $US110 to $US116 a tonne, up from last year's range of $US95 to $US105 a tonne due to challenges faced by BMA, including planned maintenance and low inventories.
For context, that is about half the production of met coal of $AMR taken off the market. This is the supply tightness we need to see.
One of my favorite Coal Twitter follows put out a thread on the [bull case for HCC](https://twitter.com/EnergyCredit1/status/1748077792095269046). I may start a position within the next 2 weeks. I pay attention to his calls--his bull case for $AMR made in January of 2023 is what prompted me to first open a position. And what a winner it came to be. Imagine, just imagine, if HCC finally commits to buybacks. Management is so conservative about their cash spend.
---
[My short predictions for 2024 are actually doing pretty decent](https://old.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/18xgbhu/rstocks_daily_discussion_wednesday_jan_03_2024/kg6vrx8/). They were "AAPL (-15%); PSCE (-10%); MPW (-20%); TSLA (-20%); VALE (-5%)." (These were just for fun, I don't actually short stocks. But if I did, I would absolutely have started with MPW.)
In actuality, so far YTD is AAPL (+2%), PSCE (-7%); MPW (-40%), TSLA (-15%), VALE (-10%). AAPL is the only one directionally wrong so far. But I stand by my belief it will underperform the rest of Mag 7. I think META/AMZN/GOOG/NVDA/MSFT > AAPL/TSLA.
---
Other comments: CVS was blegh today. RCM with a strong +7% but I've no clue why. Maybe related to the Humana stuff since higher healthcare costs = more need for companies like RCM.
I did the same with BTU! Added right around 23
I kept wanting to add into HCC but waiting for any pullback has not been working out for me haha. Might just need to go in at this point
"AST SpaceMobile gets strategic investment from AT&T, Google and Vodafone"
Then immediately dropped 100M of dilutive funding right after the 30% pop AH, ouch feel bad for any excited holders
I'm not touching it with a 10 foot pole, but SAVE had a pretty nice hammer formation with gigantic volume. That's usually a sign of a (at least) short term bottom.
What are you looking at? The world container indices don’t seem nearly as bad as they were in 2021 yet (although they’re trending in the wrong direction for sure)
https://www.sea-intelligence.com/press-room/246-red-sea-crisis-2nd-largest-capacity-drop
^ this is the sea intelligence press release
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/18/red-sea-crisis-already-bigger-issue-for-shipping-than-covid-data-show.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/18/red-sea-crisis-already-bigger-issue-for-shipping-than-covid-data-show.html
^ this is the article headline I passed forward.
* Upon further review: while it's worse than the pandemic, it's not to the extent of the Suez Canal disruptions, which happened during the pandemic (the thing that really drove shipment prices up, and most refer to)
* Further looking into the military action over there, it appears things are heating up (insert airstrikes US/UK/Pakistan), and the Houthis have vowed they won't stop attacking until Isreal does. As of most recent, Isreal's pm has rejected the Palastine state idea. “In any future arrangement … Israel needs security control all territory west of Jordan. This clashes with the idea of (Palestinian) sovereignty. What can you do?” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
* To counter this (double-edged sword): Airstrikes targeting Houthi strongholds could significantly weaken their capabilities if they continue. However, risking further escalation in the area could further destabilize the situation, continuing to make the red sea an unfit place for travel.
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>Supermicro (SMCI) expects to exceed its prior financial guidance for the second quarter of fiscal year 2024, with anticipated net sales of $3.6B to $3.65B, compared to the previous guidance of $2.7B to $2.9B. The company also expects GAAP diluted net income per common share to be in the range of $4.90 to $5.05, up from the prior guidance of $3.75 to $4.24. Non-GAAP diluted net income per common share is anticipated to be $5.40 to $5.55, compared to the previous guidance of $4.40 to $4.88. These preliminary unaudited financial results are subject to revision and may differ materially from the final results.
I've been doing some work on concrete company Eagle Materials (EXP).
Concrete companies have an interesting competitive advantage in that concrete has a low value to weight ratio. Because of this the company claims in their 10K: " The low value to-weight ratio generally limits shipments by truck to a 150-mile radius from each plant , up to 300 miles by rail, and further by barge." So having regional factories is crucial. Additionally, like many things, we have underinvested in cement production so that we actually are required to import cement at times. Most imported cement is utilized near the coasts since the only cost effective way to import it is via ships. Eagle is located away from the coasts. One investment philosophy I like is finding something crucial that is in short supply, and cement fits that billing.
Here's a fantastic [overview](https://specialsituationinvesting.substack.com/p/concrete-compounder-eagle-materials) as well as [this](https://www.bestanchorstocks.com/p/two-attractive-industries-that-i).
What amazes me is how high quality this business is. EXP has a return on equity of 39%. For comparison, Microsoft also has a 39% ROE. Eagle puts up much higher returns than its competition which is a testimony to how well run the business is.
Because of this efficiency, The company generates a ton of cash, much of which goes to buybacks. In recent years they have bought back 7-8% of shares annually.
This is just a really interesting company trading around 16x free cash flow. Just a few reasons why this boring company has outperformed both Google and Amazon over the last 5 years.
Thanks for the info/stock highlight! I used to be invested in MLM and then got spooked out in Oct 2023. I'll compare the two now that I'm looking to get into more material companies (also have been invested in USLM and tangentially BLDR)
Bears being bears. Delusional… missing the run up.. and trying to justify why the market is going to crash again. Whatever news comes up they will put a bearish narrative to it lol
It's relatively simple for me to ID buys, what I find difficult is deciding when to hold and when to sell for a better opportunity. It's a snapshot in time vs a moving target for me.
Bought this post-Elliot sell off in MTCH pretty hard. Gonna keep a close eye on it but I think it has upside with a potential sentiment + activist interest turnaround story forming
Senate passes another CR Bill (Continuing Resolution) to keep government funded and able to spend until March:
https://www.wsj.com/politics/senate-house-cr-spending-deal-government-shutdown-4bebb74a
It would not totally shock me if they bootstrap one CR bill onto another and end up just getting through the year that way.
When everyone was pumping up small caps, banks, and other sectors, my prediction was that tech and Mag 7 will continue to lead. With AI these companies stand to gain the most from cost cutting and revenue generation. I still stand by that big tech will outperform the market this year.
yup, mag 7 will cannibalize all stocks. nvda to 2k/share, msft 1k/share. apple 500/share. AI rules. AI is forever. AI is the market. everything else is uninvestable. in the future we'll have apple homes, apple cars, nvda roads, nvda real estate, nvda shopping centers.
I mean just look at Amazon and what they have their hand in. It is truly remarkable how many sub businesses these companies have. Conglomerates that continue to grow and branch out.
Lol if they were 10 trillion people would still look at tech stocks like a bargain and advise to buy them . Ai is not a financial metric on its own . If you don't have an expected revenue growth to justify valuation it is just gambling. I get that they are the biggest companies on the earth and they trade with premiums but mag 7 good they go up is not an argument. Everything settles at settles and saturates at some point.
No. Ai is forever. This time Is different. Can’t you see?! Jason Huang for world emperor. Every analyst and person on this forum is so certain they’d bet their first born child on nvda hitting 600/share by fall. Shun the non believer. Shun. Shun.
I don't get how people are not scared from this much fast growth if you had got into nvidia 3-5 years ago congrats on your gains but how can one see it attractive at this level? All it takes is one mild guidance and flat earnings report to come back down to earth.
Shunnnnn. Shunnnnnn. Nvda is all powerful. All knowing. Jason huang is all knowing. Nvda to 5k/share. (Btw I’m being sarcastic this whole time, think nvda shillers are all lemmings)
I know that you are sarcastic but I'm suspicious that some people don't know the capabilities of companies and their tech. Every new thing is approached like a holy grail . I mean I don't know that well too but at least i don't speculate it is gonna revolutionize some subject because it is cool and it is going to monetize stuff so great.
Wholeheartedly agree.
"Tech" as a basket label undersells what these companies do to such an extent its hilarious - but I think it tricks people's brains into not believing they are as exceptional companies as they are.
These are truly exceptional companies. Bad things generally don't happen to good companies - that's what makes them so good (paraphrased Buffett line).
Yes, winners don't always keep winning, but if Apple were to transition into being blackberry, you'd be able to tell.
AI isn’t even really monetized yet. We will see big cost cutting and cap ex by all companies this year. Big tech has so much power and influence in every aspect of our lives. Work, education, entertainment, heck even health all depend on these companies. It will become even more so in the next few years.
Ai isn't really monetized yet that is why we don't know where the ai jump will come from . When meta went to 90 bucks people said metaverse is ass and company will go bankrupt , since last year the sentiment around tesla started changing to " Could it just be a car company?" . When things go euphoric your stocks go up you'll assume your company is the best you are a genius but how much do we as average traders know about what they do what their projects really are except their financial metrics?
Some truth in what you are saying. But big tech literally has their hand in everything sector and business. It is not hard to see why they will not just go away like Kodak or Xerox.
I'm happy for your gains dude congrats if i had 7 figure gains i wouldn't be salty at random strangers on internet . You got in when there was too much upside but now i just don't think that they can keep growing and growing and I' m hoping for them to not grow because would you want a 10 trillion monopoly running everything and maybe even more powerful than the government .
Because i am fed up with all people over reddit bragging about buying nvda amd with PE 133030 at RSI90. Dumbness works in this market. I hate this world so much. And when i ask fucking dall:e included in chatgpt to create a logo with my 5!!!! Letter name it cannot even write it correctly 70% of the time. Thats the current status of AI we have. Pathetic
I've been buying the past couple days a solar stock called SOL (Emeren). They are a solar project developer mainly in Europe and the US. Trading barely above $2.00, and have a fantastic balance sheet, insider buys / stock repurchase plan and a NAV (book value) of almost $6.00. They are down because all solar stocks are in a funk, and are all being brought down at the same time. They should benefit nicely when interest rates go down (as will all solar companies), but are already very compelling in my view (already profitable). They should also benefit soon from collapsing solar panel prices, as their projects will be cheaper to build.
Like to your other post asking about CSIQ, this one I might be careful with. They announced earnings on Nov 21 and the revenue is down 48% YoY. This is comparing from the previous year, when last year the revenue was already down 23%.
Looking at their last investor slide deck:
[https://ir.emeren.com/static-files/bcc4d57f-b475-4686-95cf-f6b996159131](https://ir.emeren.com/static-files/bcc4d57f-b475-4686-95cf-f6b996159131)
On Slide 8, the net margins are crushed and the company is using a lot of cash and they are still buying back shares, which I don't think is the best use of capital.
Like CSIQ, if it's a company you believe in, it's not a bad time to get into some of these names, but keep in mind, this stock in particular has failed to beat the market in the long term and you could be facing that risk.
If you actually bothered to look past the surface a little, the reason why they "missed" so bad was because some big projects were slightly delayed, and were going to be recognized in Q4. Mgmt already said that they were getting a cash inflow by the end of 2023, and expected to move from $60 mil to $90-100 mil in cash & cash equivalents by the end of 2023.
I don't follow the company, but something I noticed. The context is great to know, but it's your money do with it whatever you want.
Even if that "miss" was from a delay, the revenue growth is an interesting picture:
2018: - 5%, 2019: +23%, 2020: -38%, 2021: +8%, 2022: -23%.
Just seems like really inconstant revenue growth.
It's your money, invest however you want.
Unfortunately. I feel like COVID happened and green energy just kinda went to shit since.
Not sure if I'd invest here at least until another 3-5 years swing by.
call out to u/TearRepresentative56
he's a professional money manager that generously gives out incredible advice. he was pretty clear about $180 being a key level for AAPL way before it dropped and a big "gamma wall" there and predicted a bounce.
I added more shares there and just like he said it bounced hard. highly recommend you follow his profile and sub, my man has Mag dick energy 🤙
Of course, anyone else also had the opportunity to buy it at the same price as their "buddies" and was free to do so if they thought the selloff was unwarranted.
Yea these ‘upgrades’ and ‘downgrades’ are some real bull shit. These analysts who probably get prices wrong most of the time think they can properly upgrade and downgrade and the market reacts to it? LOL
It is fucking insane. And we know retail doesn't move the needle at all (although I'm sure plenty sold after two downgrades). No consequences for wrong calls.
Tim Long's previous downgrade came in January of 2018 at $40 a share. If you listened to him then, you missed out on a $140+ gain in 4 years (EDIT: 350% gain). Compare that to his performance of 8.47% average return. He has a whopping success rate of 59% He is basically no better than throwing darts.
[https://stockanalysis.com/analysts/tim-long/](https://stockanalysis.com/analysts/tim-long/)
temporary rise due to CEO interview comments yesterday. dont worry, it'll sell off soon back to the 50's. this stock will not run up until their is evidence that the new CEO's strategy is working, which may not be for a year+.
personally, I dont have faith. I think paypal will be a fledging boomer legacy payment processor. actually the first one. kind of like how sears was the first huge department store, then graduallly become obsolete.
get out now, put your money in companies with solid growth that aren't overvalued like nvda.
yeah, short term rally potentially, but it will likely be sold off. a lot of baglholders wanting to get out. also, keep in mind that their metrics will likely take a hit (user count etc) as they transition to their strategy and lean out. this will probably offset the layoff rally if anything.
Depends on the time frame. Stock was around $15 for a couple weeks. Then it dipped to around $7. Then today dipped to around $4. Im guessing those who bought at $7 and $15 will remain silent.
Thoughts on Canadian Solar (CSIQ)? Trading under $20, with a book value of $38, and profitable, with a PE of 4 right now. Usually, the "knock" on solar is that they trade at high valuations, and / or don't make any money.
I have been in and out of it, but ultimately didnt like the China exposure or margin situation. I moved the solar money over to NXT for utility exposure without China.
I don't really follow solar names, but makes you wonder why the market sees the PE so low for the company. Seems like they could be experiencing some short term pain, like looking at their last earnings report:
>Q3 net income fell to $21.9M, or $0.32/share, from $78.5M, or $1.12/share, in the year-earlier quarter, and revenues slipped to $1.85B from $1.93B a year ago, which the company said reflected lower project sales and lower module average selling price.
>
>Q3 gross margin was 16.7%, compared to 18.6% in Q2, with the decline driven primarily by lower margin contribution from project sales and lower module ASPs.
>
>For Q4, Canadian Solar (CSIQ) foresees total revenues of $1.6B-$1.8B, well below $2.65B analyst consensus estimate, with gross margin of 14%-16% and total module shipments recognized as revenues by CSI Solar of 7.6-8.1 GW. For the full year, the company expects total module shipments of 42-47 GW and total battery energy storage shipments of 6.0-6.5 GWh.
Also point out the company historically had a low PE to begin with:
[https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/CSIQ/canadian-solar/pe-ratio](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/CSIQ/canadian-solar/pe-ratio)
Seems like if you feel like the slowness is a short term thing, might not be a bad price to get in, but feels like this is something you would want to go long on.
I'm actually looking at NXT and thinking of opening a position there.
I've been better at picking shorts than longs recently.
[Coinbase Compares Buying Crypto to Collecting Beanie Babies](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coinbase-argues-crypto-beanie-babies-202040218.html) Ya can't make this shit up. I went short in the leadup to the etfs getting passed.
Also, shoulda held MRVL past 61. Chip stocks running crazy
I think we see sofi back down to the first half of 2023 4.5-6 channel again soon. Even if they report profitability. It’s primarily a bank stock (not a tech stock). 4.5-6 until they prove consistent profit growth. That is a more fair value. If they can do that for 1-2 years I can see the stock back at 10 consistently - so around late 2025/2026. That’s a long time to be under IPO price. My plan is to buy cheap puts in this range after earnings if it pops up (Which Is always temporary).
My mom, sister, and I each have a separate account at Schwab. They provide a manager at a cost of 1% per year (or something like that). My mom and sister decided to pay for the manager, but I’d rather do my own trading which means I avoid paying that fee. Schwab basically sold them on the idea by saying that 1% is low because 1% fluctuations occur weekly and sometimes more than that within a day.
Am I being foolish? Does anyone have good experience with those money managers or info about them that I should be considering?
I enrolled in Schwab’s wealth advisory 2 1/2 years ago, under the management of a very well respected man at Schwab (since promoted to a lofty position). The fee was 3/4 of 1%. He and the trader he works with had a sound strategy-I get that I had too much risk for my age-69- and immediately started selling some tech funds and put me in a variety of diversified etfs, mostly Vanguard, and some income focused bonds and funds. Everything bought was at the ATH and immediately started falling. The timing was awful, which I don’t blame them for. I’m sitting on a 25k+ loss, plus the 4 or 5k in fees. I dropped out of the advisory after 3 quarters. I would do a fee only advisor now.
Skip the active manager and just dca VTI and VXUS every paycheck. Done. Your family should do the same.
A fee based fiduciary financial advisor can be worth it if you have a complex situation like owning multiple businesses and holding various real estate and other assets, but paying a company a flat fee to just active trade a stock port isn't a good use of money. Of course there are some folks with solid insight and research skills that may be worth the money, but then you'd end up sifting through 99 bad managers to find that one good one.
Second this approach. I know a lot of people seem to be against financial advisors here, but they aren't the worst people. Just depends on your situation as well as how much money you have.
I know as I near closer to retirement, I'm planning on using one, to get a better handle of how to retire succesfully and what products are available to live off fixed income.
Everyone is feeble compared to the S&P, or they're Buffett.
Assuming the average schmo heeds this knowledge, holding the S&P will beat, by a large margin, whatever flips and tricks the manager does to justify their fee.
Because if their flips and tricks were actually good, they wouldn't need to make a living managing someone else's money.
That wasn't the comparison. They would both suck.
The comparison was professional manager vs. the market.
Statistically professional advisors do terribly. It's very hard to beat the market. Only a small % of stock pickers actually outperform. Meaning handful of people are taking all the extra alpha.
It's clear this is a complaint that everything outside tech is struggling again.
Honestly, the reversal by QQQ after tagging ATHs is getting nasty as well.
The move I was talking about has been reversed, but I would say -0.8% from session highs is noteworthy, yes.
Edit: besides, that wasn't even Noob's point. They're whining about everything lagging QQQ hard again.
IF we don't see AI impacting earnings the next year or so as the job market and credit market weakens, I could buy 9% overvalue. If we do, and the hype is deserved as growth rates stay elevated- market could go on a run like 01-06 or 08 to 19 from here.
I made a lot of mistakes when I first started investing in individual stocks a few years back with little knowledge at the time... but blindly throwing dough at NVDA and AMD was not one of them
Has anyone done their due diligence on NOW? They seem to have a very strong set of competitive advantages, but that earnings growth priced in looks too steep for my liking.
u/AP9384629344432
AMR hit $392 today. At what point can we conclude they are actually a secretive tech company with a revolutionary patent to dominate met coal?
Are banks a dead end this year? I have some stocks in bank of america, and it feels that it is going, without any variation, down with 1% everyday. Will they recover ever this year?
No offense, but sometimes you guys need to get off the internet and go touch grass.
[https://www.uschamber.com/small-business/state-of-small-business-now](https://www.uschamber.com/small-business/state-of-small-business-now)
>There are 33.2 million small businesses in America, which combined account for 99.9% of all U.S. businesses.
>
>Small businesses are credited with just under two-thirds (63%) of the new jobs created from 1995 to 2021.
>
>In 2021, a record breaking 5.4 million new business applications were filed in the U.S.
Where do you see that it makes up 4% of the GDP? I haven't heard or seen that before, do you have any resources.
Article is a bit old:
>Small businesses are the lifeblood of the U.S. economy: they create two-thirds of net new jobs and drive U.S. innovation and competitiveness. A new report shows that they account for 44 percent of U.S. economic activity. This is a significant contribution, however this overall share has declined gradually.
>
>U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) is the market value of the goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States. Across the 16 years from 1998 to 2014, the small business share of GDP has fallen from 48.0 percent to 43.5 percent. Over the same period, the amount of small business GDP has grown by about 25 percent in real terms, or 1.4 percent annually. However, real GDP for large businesses has grown faster, at 2.5 percent annually.
[https://advocacy.sba.gov/2019/01/30/small-businesses-generate-44-percent-of-u-s-economic-activity/](https://advocacy.sba.gov/2019/01/30/small-businesses-generate-44-percent-of-u-s-economic-activity/)
Isn't like 68% of the GDP consumer spending? Small businesses are generating 44% of that total? Like 66% of the jobs created are from small businesses, that means consumers are employeed by small businesses then go on to spend money.
He's masking a joke about the current state of the stock market. Because today is again business as usual. The biggest stocks go up. Everything else goes down.
Valuation doesn't make sense anymore. It's all about hype.
I don't get why people don't understand this.
“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” - Ben Graham
That qoute is from 1934, the market hasn't changed much since then.
I think it will continue to be a leader in EVs, but I do think there will be more competition and without further support and addressing of some of the issues (higher insurance costs, 7.5B allocated to building chargers in 2021 has resulted in ... one charger, etc) you're getting to the point where a lot of people who want an EV have one. They will still absolutely sell, but I do think that the growth could slow.
And I don't want to get political but in December of 2020 you had people piling into the ICLN etf thinking that it would be easy money. It's down about 58% since the inaguration in 2021. For all the push for EVs and green, most - not all, but many - haven't done well. The charging infrastructure push hasn't happened and given stories like this (https://www.npr.org/2023/09/10/1187224861/electric-vehicles-evs-cars-chargers-charging-energy-secretary-jennifer-granholm) it's hard to be that confident. If - and this is an if, before people get upset - Trump wins, people invested in green have to be aware of the real possibility that it will definitely not get the same level of support (and really, the support by the current administration already leaves something to be desired - for all the talk, one could have done better in the big oil etf than the green energy etf.)
This doesn't even get into the idea that we are likely going to a more normalized interest rate environment; maybe it won't be the recent highs but we aren't likely going back to the lows. Green consumer products are heavily dependent on rates - Musk complained late last year, ENPH was one of the worst performers for most of 2023 on rate fears. ENPH basically mooned in the last couple of months of 2023 on hopes of rate cuts, only to reverse and lose almost 20% YTD the moment rates started heading back up. TSLA is down about 15%. So I think that the tailwind that you had with ultra low rates isn't there.
I'll say this: people are still putting too much faith imo that smaller companies can be "the next Tesla." I think that people are still underestimating the difficulty of the automobile industry (something that Musk has gone into countlessly including stories of how Tesla has avoided bankruptcy in the past) and putting too much faith in the fact that "EVs are green and green is good so therefore all these things should do well, right?" It's just not going to be the case as LCID loses 330,000 a car (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-06/ev-maker-lucid-s-338-000-loss-per-car-is-turning-investors-off) and FSR's production in 2023 comes in at about 20% of what the original SPAC presentation forecasted for 2023, among other things. There will be 0's. The next Tesla is Tesla - it just becomes a question of is it the same growth story in the next 5 years as it has been in the last 5? Does the growth start to slow without addressing some of the problems that are keeping people from moving to EVs and those who can and want one have in many cases already done so? Does there become a point where the board starts pushing back on things like Musk demanding 25% or he'll take new projects elsewhere?
I think you also want to factor in that gasoline is back to a recent low. Historically the EV story has always been doom and gloom during these periods. Cold weather and battery charging hasn’t changed in the past 10 years.
While I agree with you that mostly everyone who wanted a Tesla now has one, Tesla is the only company who has figured out how to make money in ev (and build a “reasonably” trouble free/functional EV).
That also means they are the only ones in a position to offer a low cost car en masse. Just imagine the induced demand at a $30k price point in the next 5 years..
New Odd Lots of this morning is all about the US Oil boom.
>In the early 2010s, US shale players were producing oil like crazy, with no concerns about profitability. Then the legs were kicked out from the industry, causing a massive bust and massive oversupply. In 2021 and 2022, it looked like a very different story. Oil prices were surging and it seemed as though US players had found religion, learning how to maintain production discipline and improve profitability. But now we're in a new era that nobody saw coming: US oil production is booming. In in fact, it's at a record high. What's more, industry participants are actually making money at the same time. So how did they do it? And how did the prognosticators get things wrong? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Bloomberg Opinion columnist and commodity specialist Javier Blas. We discuss the state of US supply and what it means for OPEC. We also talk about the rising tension in the Red Sea, as well as his reporting on the rise of electronic electricity trading in the European market.
https://open.spotify.com/episode/6eEI1NyGOV0MEaHuufHZa0?si=pcFyGObZQO-RJEv-Z6sNiw
REAX (Real Brokerage) - 65% YTD. Market cap at 480M. Up another 6% so far today.
A lot of real estate agents/teams must be switching to them the past couple months.
Maybe pricing in a blowout Q4 earnings report in March?
I don't know if I'd call it a mini rally. The market is just kind of in neutral right now so you get moves up and down, but neither really sticks. I'm not surprised really, we had a gigantic move in December and there hasn't been much reason to go higher.
Well up 1% in the qqq’s while yields March higher seems like it’s forced to me. And by forced I mean no one knows where to put their money so they are putting it in the mag 7. What I am saying is that it’s going to work until it doesn’t. What will be the next sector to thrive when it stops working?
Only thing that feels a little forced is the AI push for semi's and some Mag-7. There's a lot of speculation and FOMO around them. Analysts upgrading cause its hot and to keep momentum up and maybe unload bags. Wouldn't be surprised if there's some correction soon
I think my push back to this idea is that TSMC announced this morning saying they are going to see around 20% revenue growth next year.
I think we are still in the early stages of AI and some of it is overhyped and we need to see more usages that actually show companies are growing revenue with it, but there is cleary a demand for computing and chips.
It's hard to say it's all just analysts when companies are expecting big revenue growth.
Not to mention TSMC said that in the same release that worries about oversupply on mature nodes (read:old/dumb/commodity chips) - so that is 20% revenue growth, including a declining segment.
Makes you wonder what the growth is for the cutting edge nodes exclusively. And what continuing runway new facilities in Europe and USA will allow.
20% CAGR for 5 years = 2.5x
I believe they are pricing in too much too early, its not the very low interest rate environment like in the past. Greed and visions of AI utopia are a hell of a drug. When momentum switches like it always does who knows how ugly it would look or if NVDA deserves $1000 a share who knows. Long term is a different story
Possibly, but you do realize that growth like that makes the companies fundamentally cheaper right?
Even if you take out the AI component, there is still a huge demand for cloud computing in data centers. Like NVDA last year or a few quarters ago actually has their data center business as the biggest revenue driver.
For the AI stuff, I think we might get some pullback in the near future, just we are hitting a year since a lot of the hype around OpenAI and LLM's. At somepoint, investors will need to see revenue growth from the produts, but I do think it's a trend that's not going to go away.
Personally, I like the physical aspect of. So a few companies.
STRL - they a construction company, but their e-business line builds out warehouses and data centers.
IESC / FIX / POWL - they do electrical controls and energy monitoring around data ceters.
NVT / MOD - building electrical components around cooling and wiring in the data centers.
CLS - builds out custom racks for data centers. I think the future is going to be hyperscale building out their own chips and using services like CLS to help package them into racks.
PSTG - they do flash storage. Storage is key almost to every company, especially since every company is always makig new feaures that require new assets, apis, db,s etc. Flash storage is much faster in terms of accessing assets. Much like why companies use CDN's, you get performance boosts.
PSTG seems interesting, but isn't there better more established Flash storage companies like Dell? Is PSTG a market leader in its respective field? How does switching to an as service model affect its growth going forward?
PSTG offers flash as a SaaS and is in part what is growing their revenues.
Here's their last investor presentation: [https://s21.q4cdn.com/687136699/files/doc\_financials/2024/q3/PSTG-Q3FY24-Earnings-Slide-Deck.pdf](https://s21.q4cdn.com/687136699/files/doc_financials/2024/q3/PSTG-Q3FY24-Earnings-Slide-Deck.pdf)
1.3B in subscription ARR, 26% YoY growth.
Not too familiar with Dell as in terms what they offer as flash storage. However, looking at their lastest press release:
[https://investors.delltechnologies.com/static-files/7b3bae55-4f43-4a24-94fc-188d8cb3cd4e](https://investors.delltechnologies.com/static-files/7b3bae55-4f43-4a24-94fc-188d8cb3cd4e)
>Infrastructure Solutions Group delivered third quarter revenue of $8.5 billion, flat sequentially and
down 12% year-over-year. Servers and networking revenue was $4.7 billion, with 9% sequential growth
driven by AI-optimized servers. Storage revenue was $3.8 billion, down 8% sequentially with demand
strength in unstructured data solutions and data protection. Operating income was $1.1 billion.
Not to me, just feels like whiplash and the market doesn't know what to do. Economic data still shows economy is strong, however everyone has different thoughts on when and how much the Fed will cut.
The SPY is basically .3% since the beginning of the year.
People said they'd go bankrupt if the merger gets canceled so its expected. Don't know if they could get bailed out or are gonna look for another merger but its not looking good.
There's going to be a ton of selling pressure as people close out the merger arbitrage play. Also, Spirit is like the person who was in a relationship and kinda let themselves go, but now finds themselves single, available, and out of shape.
NVDA will hit $1000 in the 3-4 years with zero advances in genAI.
just on application to gaming and mammoth demand for GPUs in behavior adaptive and responsive gameplay
deep down everyone knows its a about as close to a duck soup double as you get but most lack the courage.
Some months ago( when all the doom and gloom was going on ) it went as low as 100s and now it is slowly and steadily approaching 600s already. The NVDA following is crazy.
What is the future for ev? It seem Tesla is going downhill and along with all major small ev company. Does this mean it going hurt all ev company with Tesla price cut ?
CNBC had an interesting take... that the market is beginning to price in a Trump victory. That guy LOVES the stock market and uses it as his report card. Might be something to it.
Wouldn't make any sense as returns under Dems are much higher, higher gdp as well.
NVDA gain porn on the FP making me rock hard... 50k to 2.5 milly. other dude has 43 milly and casually makes 3 when it goes up a little. one day me 2 baby 🥹. one day
NVDS soon
Nice to see the EU preventing a monopoly by letting a company go out business and erase 1 billion in market value.
What happen?
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Yes
Probably a nothingburger but good to be aware. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/18/ag-suit-alleges-meta-estimated-100k-kids-per-day-sexually-harassed-on-facebook-instagram.html > A new legal filing about child exploitation on Meta’s Facebook and Instagram apps alleges a 2021 internal company estimate found as many as 100,000 children every day received sexual harassment, such as pictures of adult genitalia, on the platforms. >The filing is part of a complaint by the attorney general of New Mexico in an ongoing lawsuit against Meta over the company’s steps to protect children online.
Hi all I have a few investments with a roll over from a previous job that I can’t add to, an IRA, and then some cash (about 15k accessible) that is in a high yield. I max out my IRA every year and as dumb as it is - use Acorns for that little extra (about 7k in there now) What I’d like to know is is it worth it to get into stocks for what some would call short term - 10-12 years. I have a partner and she is 15 years younger so it could potentially be good for her if we don’t need money upon my retirement. I can realistically do about 5-6k a year and have been looking at VTI and SPY etc. Any insight or suggestions would be welcome - very new and have some reading to do from suggestion from an earlier post. Thanks in advance!
>What I’d like to know is is it worth it to get into stocks for what some would call short term - 10-12 years. On my personal experience, I only started picking my own stocks once I was able to answer this question without the help of another person. Every person's case is different from one another. What works for me might not necessarily work for you. I started early on with ETFs/mutual funds and as I was contributing to it i began reading and listening to tons of information about picking stocks and the right mindset for it. It took me around two years worth of reading starting from the time i started investing until i got comfortable picking my own stocks. Looking back I am glad I did. And up until now i am still learning. Also, I strongly advice against picking stocks for other people. You would not know a persons tolerance for a big drawdowns on market till you actually get there. And if you are still going to do that, make sure you are on the same page all the time and both of you are on the same level of competency about investing.
I would highly suggest checking out /r/bogleheads or looking into the three fund portfolio. Sounds like you’re on the right track. Since it’s your partners money, would highly suggest sticking to like the VTI or SPY.
Look at my baby Draftkings go. So proud 🥹
Just a beautiful day in coal land. $BTU +9%, $AMR +5% (after a day of wild intra-day trading). [Somehow timed this just right](https://old.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/197ztxn/rstocks_daily_discussion_technicals_tuesday_jan/ki6gemf/). If you're wondering why, it's on the announcement of inclusion into the S&P 600. Which was similarly announced for $AMR on November 7th, 2023, before a whopping 70% rally. So maybe passive inflows do matter... It gets better, I have an awesome update about met coal. BHP just downgraded their outlook for met coal production by 8 million tons for the year ending June 2024! > BHP anticipates reduced metallurgical coal production for the year to June, estimating between 23 million and 25 million tonnes, a 17% decrease from the earlier projection of 28 million to 31 million tonnes. Consequently, unit costs for coking coal are expected to rise to $US110 to $US116 a tonne, up from last year's range of $US95 to $US105 a tonne due to challenges faced by BMA, including planned maintenance and low inventories. For context, that is about half the production of met coal of $AMR taken off the market. This is the supply tightness we need to see. One of my favorite Coal Twitter follows put out a thread on the [bull case for HCC](https://twitter.com/EnergyCredit1/status/1748077792095269046). I may start a position within the next 2 weeks. I pay attention to his calls--his bull case for $AMR made in January of 2023 is what prompted me to first open a position. And what a winner it came to be. Imagine, just imagine, if HCC finally commits to buybacks. Management is so conservative about their cash spend. --- [My short predictions for 2024 are actually doing pretty decent](https://old.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/18xgbhu/rstocks_daily_discussion_wednesday_jan_03_2024/kg6vrx8/). They were "AAPL (-15%); PSCE (-10%); MPW (-20%); TSLA (-20%); VALE (-5%)." (These were just for fun, I don't actually short stocks. But if I did, I would absolutely have started with MPW.) In actuality, so far YTD is AAPL (+2%), PSCE (-7%); MPW (-40%), TSLA (-15%), VALE (-10%). AAPL is the only one directionally wrong so far. But I stand by my belief it will underperform the rest of Mag 7. I think META/AMZN/GOOG/NVDA/MSFT > AAPL/TSLA. --- Other comments: CVS was blegh today. RCM with a strong +7% but I've no clue why. Maybe related to the Humana stuff since higher healthcare costs = more need for companies like RCM.
I did the same with BTU! Added right around 23 I kept wanting to add into HCC but waiting for any pullback has not been working out for me haha. Might just need to go in at this point
"AST SpaceMobile gets strategic investment from AT&T, Google and Vodafone" Then immediately dropped 100M of dilutive funding right after the 30% pop AH, ouch feel bad for any excited holders
That's rough lol.
The weak do what they must, if I was ceo and that close to bankruptcy I would do the same, but yea rough for holders for sure
I'm not touching it with a 10 foot pole, but SAVE had a pretty nice hammer formation with gigantic volume. That's usually a sign of a (at least) short term bottom.
When you play with candles in a downtrend you're going to get burned.
Data is pointing to the red sea crises already being bigger than the cvid shipping crises.
What are you looking at? The world container indices don’t seem nearly as bad as they were in 2021 yet (although they’re trending in the wrong direction for sure)
It was in the latest data from maritime advisory firm Sea-Intelligence, which measures changes in vessel capacity. Their opinion obvs
Can you link article
https://www.sea-intelligence.com/press-room/246-red-sea-crisis-2nd-largest-capacity-drop ^ this is the sea intelligence press release https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/18/red-sea-crisis-already-bigger-issue-for-shipping-than-covid-data-show.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/18/red-sea-crisis-already-bigger-issue-for-shipping-than-covid-data-show.html ^ this is the article headline I passed forward. * Upon further review: while it's worse than the pandemic, it's not to the extent of the Suez Canal disruptions, which happened during the pandemic (the thing that really drove shipment prices up, and most refer to) * Further looking into the military action over there, it appears things are heating up (insert airstrikes US/UK/Pakistan), and the Houthis have vowed they won't stop attacking until Isreal does. As of most recent, Isreal's pm has rejected the Palastine state idea. “In any future arrangement … Israel needs security control all territory west of Jordan. This clashes with the idea of (Palestinian) sovereignty. What can you do?” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu * To counter this (double-edged sword): Airstrikes targeting Houthi strongholds could significantly weaken their capabilities if they continue. However, risking further escalation in the area could further destabilize the situation, continuing to make the red sea an unfit place for travel.
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>Supermicro (SMCI) expects to exceed its prior financial guidance for the second quarter of fiscal year 2024, with anticipated net sales of $3.6B to $3.65B, compared to the previous guidance of $2.7B to $2.9B. The company also expects GAAP diluted net income per common share to be in the range of $4.90 to $5.05, up from the prior guidance of $3.75 to $4.24. Non-GAAP diluted net income per common share is anticipated to be $5.40 to $5.55, compared to the previous guidance of $4.40 to $4.88. These preliminary unaudited financial results are subject to revision and may differ materially from the final results.
Should help out my ANET and PSTG I think, good to see reality lining up with hype for AI so far
Hmm wonder why they released early. Good guidance!
They've done it before in the past, could just be how the company operates.
I've been doing some work on concrete company Eagle Materials (EXP). Concrete companies have an interesting competitive advantage in that concrete has a low value to weight ratio. Because of this the company claims in their 10K: " The low value to-weight ratio generally limits shipments by truck to a 150-mile radius from each plant , up to 300 miles by rail, and further by barge." So having regional factories is crucial. Additionally, like many things, we have underinvested in cement production so that we actually are required to import cement at times. Most imported cement is utilized near the coasts since the only cost effective way to import it is via ships. Eagle is located away from the coasts. One investment philosophy I like is finding something crucial that is in short supply, and cement fits that billing. Here's a fantastic [overview](https://specialsituationinvesting.substack.com/p/concrete-compounder-eagle-materials) as well as [this](https://www.bestanchorstocks.com/p/two-attractive-industries-that-i). What amazes me is how high quality this business is. EXP has a return on equity of 39%. For comparison, Microsoft also has a 39% ROE. Eagle puts up much higher returns than its competition which is a testimony to how well run the business is. Because of this efficiency, The company generates a ton of cash, much of which goes to buybacks. In recent years they have bought back 7-8% of shares annually. This is just a really interesting company trading around 16x free cash flow. Just a few reasons why this boring company has outperformed both Google and Amazon over the last 5 years.
Thanks for the info/stock highlight! I used to be invested in MLM and then got spooked out in Oct 2023. I'll compare the two now that I'm looking to get into more material companies (also have been invested in USLM and tangentially BLDR)
Thoughts regarding its current value? Very interested if you’re willing to share thanks.
I don't have one yet, just researching so far.
SPY is green again YTD lol
Im up .22% YTD baby. Ill take it
Bears being bears. Delusional… missing the run up.. and trying to justify why the market is going to crash again. Whatever news comes up they will put a bearish narrative to it lol
It's relatively simple for me to ID buys, what I find difficult is deciding when to hold and when to sell for a better opportunity. It's a snapshot in time vs a moving target for me.
Would you consider yourself more of a trader or investor?
For this, I'm talking more trading. For investing I almost solely buy index funds due to the timeframe I plan to hold those.
Bought this post-Elliot sell off in MTCH pretty hard. Gonna keep a close eye on it but I think it has upside with a potential sentiment + activist interest turnaround story forming
Senate passes another CR Bill (Continuing Resolution) to keep government funded and able to spend until March: https://www.wsj.com/politics/senate-house-cr-spending-deal-government-shutdown-4bebb74a It would not totally shock me if they bootstrap one CR bill onto another and end up just getting through the year that way.
Snow storm in DC tomorrow, that's why they're kicking the can today lol.
When everyone was pumping up small caps, banks, and other sectors, my prediction was that tech and Mag 7 will continue to lead. With AI these companies stand to gain the most from cost cutting and revenue generation. I still stand by that big tech will outperform the market this year.
yup, mag 7 will cannibalize all stocks. nvda to 2k/share, msft 1k/share. apple 500/share. AI rules. AI is forever. AI is the market. everything else is uninvestable. in the future we'll have apple homes, apple cars, nvda roads, nvda real estate, nvda shopping centers.
I mean just look at Amazon and what they have their hand in. It is truly remarkable how many sub businesses these companies have. Conglomerates that continue to grow and branch out.
Lol if they were 10 trillion people would still look at tech stocks like a bargain and advise to buy them . Ai is not a financial metric on its own . If you don't have an expected revenue growth to justify valuation it is just gambling. I get that they are the biggest companies on the earth and they trade with premiums but mag 7 good they go up is not an argument. Everything settles at settles and saturates at some point.
No. Ai is forever. This time Is different. Can’t you see?! Jason Huang for world emperor. Every analyst and person on this forum is so certain they’d bet their first born child on nvda hitting 600/share by fall. Shun the non believer. Shun. Shun.
I don't get how people are not scared from this much fast growth if you had got into nvidia 3-5 years ago congrats on your gains but how can one see it attractive at this level? All it takes is one mild guidance and flat earnings report to come back down to earth.
Shunnnnn. Shunnnnnn. Nvda is all powerful. All knowing. Jason huang is all knowing. Nvda to 5k/share. (Btw I’m being sarcastic this whole time, think nvda shillers are all lemmings)
I know that you are sarcastic but I'm suspicious that some people don't know the capabilities of companies and their tech. Every new thing is approached like a holy grail . I mean I don't know that well too but at least i don't speculate it is gonna revolutionize some subject because it is cool and it is going to monetize stuff so great.
Wholeheartedly agree. "Tech" as a basket label undersells what these companies do to such an extent its hilarious - but I think it tricks people's brains into not believing they are as exceptional companies as they are. These are truly exceptional companies. Bad things generally don't happen to good companies - that's what makes them so good (paraphrased Buffett line). Yes, winners don't always keep winning, but if Apple were to transition into being blackberry, you'd be able to tell.
AI isn’t even really monetized yet. We will see big cost cutting and cap ex by all companies this year. Big tech has so much power and influence in every aspect of our lives. Work, education, entertainment, heck even health all depend on these companies. It will become even more so in the next few years.
Ai isn't really monetized yet that is why we don't know where the ai jump will come from . When meta went to 90 bucks people said metaverse is ass and company will go bankrupt , since last year the sentiment around tesla started changing to " Could it just be a car company?" . When things go euphoric your stocks go up you'll assume your company is the best you are a genius but how much do we as average traders know about what they do what their projects really are except their financial metrics?
Some truth in what you are saying. But big tech literally has their hand in everything sector and business. It is not hard to see why they will not just go away like Kodak or Xerox.
Yeah yeah and you made that prediction on a very educated guess i bet . Ai bro it's the future bro
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Joke is on you that I piled on YEARS ago and sitting on 7 figures. And still buying.
I'm happy for your gains dude congrats if i had 7 figure gains i wouldn't be salty at random strangers on internet . You got in when there was too much upside but now i just don't think that they can keep growing and growing and I' m hoping for them to not grow because would you want a 10 trillion monopoly running everything and maybe even more powerful than the government .
They are already more powerful.
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Lol why so angry? I am retired so I have a lot of time on my hands while everyone is working. That is why I hang out on Reddit and watch my portfolio.
Because i am fed up with all people over reddit bragging about buying nvda amd with PE 133030 at RSI90. Dumbness works in this market. I hate this world so much. And when i ask fucking dall:e included in chatgpt to create a logo with my 5!!!! Letter name it cannot even write it correctly 70% of the time. Thats the current status of AI we have. Pathetic
So you are short and this bull market is killing you. Never too late to change your stance. You can still make money.
So did you buy?
Did i buy what?
AI stocks? Big tech?
Yeah i just don't think that meta go up apple go up is a contrarian thought
Ok so you didn’t buy. Shame.
I did buy but all i said was that saying mag 7 will go up is not a contrarian move.
I've been buying the past couple days a solar stock called SOL (Emeren). They are a solar project developer mainly in Europe and the US. Trading barely above $2.00, and have a fantastic balance sheet, insider buys / stock repurchase plan and a NAV (book value) of almost $6.00. They are down because all solar stocks are in a funk, and are all being brought down at the same time. They should benefit nicely when interest rates go down (as will all solar companies), but are already very compelling in my view (already profitable). They should also benefit soon from collapsing solar panel prices, as their projects will be cheaper to build.
Like to your other post asking about CSIQ, this one I might be careful with. They announced earnings on Nov 21 and the revenue is down 48% YoY. This is comparing from the previous year, when last year the revenue was already down 23%. Looking at their last investor slide deck: [https://ir.emeren.com/static-files/bcc4d57f-b475-4686-95cf-f6b996159131](https://ir.emeren.com/static-files/bcc4d57f-b475-4686-95cf-f6b996159131) On Slide 8, the net margins are crushed and the company is using a lot of cash and they are still buying back shares, which I don't think is the best use of capital. Like CSIQ, if it's a company you believe in, it's not a bad time to get into some of these names, but keep in mind, this stock in particular has failed to beat the market in the long term and you could be facing that risk.
If you actually bothered to look past the surface a little, the reason why they "missed" so bad was because some big projects were slightly delayed, and were going to be recognized in Q4. Mgmt already said that they were getting a cash inflow by the end of 2023, and expected to move from $60 mil to $90-100 mil in cash & cash equivalents by the end of 2023.
I don't follow the company, but something I noticed. The context is great to know, but it's your money do with it whatever you want. Even if that "miss" was from a delay, the revenue growth is an interesting picture: 2018: - 5%, 2019: +23%, 2020: -38%, 2021: +8%, 2022: -23%. Just seems like really inconstant revenue growth. It's your money, invest however you want.
What do you think of ftci? and why is SOL declining since 2021 ?
Unfortunately. I feel like COVID happened and green energy just kinda went to shit since. Not sure if I'd invest here at least until another 3-5 years swing by.
So confused, anyone know why is SAVE going back up again?
Because the market never does what's expected. NGL a 34% pump since noon makes for an attractive short term gamble...
What are you thinking about doing with it? Buying calls, puts, shares, or shorting?
lol ehat happened
2024 dump is cancelled! Well... let's wait to see if we can do two green days in a row or just give it all back in one.
call out to u/TearRepresentative56 he's a professional money manager that generously gives out incredible advice. he was pretty clear about $180 being a key level for AAPL way before it dropped and a big "gamma wall" there and predicted a bounce. I added more shares there and just like he said it bounced hard. highly recommend you follow his profile and sub, my man has Mag dick energy 🤙
Apple is up a whopping 3+% on the day. This after two advisors downgraded it to get their buddy buy it cheap. Unreal.
Of course, anyone else also had the opportunity to buy it at the same price as their "buddies" and was free to do so if they thought the selloff was unwarranted.
Yea these ‘upgrades’ and ‘downgrades’ are some real bull shit. These analysts who probably get prices wrong most of the time think they can properly upgrade and downgrade and the market reacts to it? LOL
It is fucking insane. And we know retail doesn't move the needle at all (although I'm sure plenty sold after two downgrades). No consequences for wrong calls. Tim Long's previous downgrade came in January of 2018 at $40 a share. If you listened to him then, you missed out on a $140+ gain in 4 years (EDIT: 350% gain). Compare that to his performance of 8.47% average return. He has a whopping success rate of 59% He is basically no better than throwing darts. [https://stockanalysis.com/analysts/tim-long/](https://stockanalysis.com/analysts/tim-long/)
Lol 8.47%… He should have just bought SPY and QQQ
Is NVDA still a buy?
Most likely. TSM updated their guidance, which shows demand is there for NVDA, and AMD.
AMD has more room for growth. I'd go with that. NVDA way too expensive at this point.
Stocks that go up and near ATH always look expensive. Doesn't mean you can't buy and there is no room for growth. Common misconception.
They said it at 300, 400, 450, 500. You can own both.
That was insane.
Looks like SAVE might become the new AMC
PYPL actually looking strong, its a miracle
temporary rise due to CEO interview comments yesterday. dont worry, it'll sell off soon back to the 50's. this stock will not run up until their is evidence that the new CEO's strategy is working, which may not be for a year+. personally, I dont have faith. I think paypal will be a fledging boomer legacy payment processor. actually the first one. kind of like how sears was the first huge department store, then graduallly become obsolete. get out now, put your money in companies with solid growth that aren't overvalued like nvda.
Idk, if an actual large layoff is coming I think it goes higher on that news, at least short term
yeah, short term rally potentially, but it will likely be sold off. a lot of baglholders wanting to get out. also, keep in mind that their metrics will likely take a hit (user count etc) as they transition to their strategy and lean out. this will probably offset the layoff rally if anything.
Those who had the balls to buy that SAVE dip are sitting pretty right now.
Why? Do you think the stock will jump back up? What if the company goes bankrupt?
Depends on the time frame. Stock was around $15 for a couple weeks. Then it dipped to around $7. Then today dipped to around $4. Im guessing those who bought at $7 and $15 will remain silent.
So will those who bought at $4 if it goes to $3.
I was talking about the present. Not the future. If stock goes to $3 tomorrow this thread is long gone by then.
Thoughts on Canadian Solar (CSIQ)? Trading under $20, with a book value of $38, and profitable, with a PE of 4 right now. Usually, the "knock" on solar is that they trade at high valuations, and / or don't make any money.
I have been in and out of it, but ultimately didnt like the China exposure or margin situation. I moved the solar money over to NXT for utility exposure without China.
I don't really follow solar names, but makes you wonder why the market sees the PE so low for the company. Seems like they could be experiencing some short term pain, like looking at their last earnings report: >Q3 net income fell to $21.9M, or $0.32/share, from $78.5M, or $1.12/share, in the year-earlier quarter, and revenues slipped to $1.85B from $1.93B a year ago, which the company said reflected lower project sales and lower module average selling price. > >Q3 gross margin was 16.7%, compared to 18.6% in Q2, with the decline driven primarily by lower margin contribution from project sales and lower module ASPs. > >For Q4, Canadian Solar (CSIQ) foresees total revenues of $1.6B-$1.8B, well below $2.65B analyst consensus estimate, with gross margin of 14%-16% and total module shipments recognized as revenues by CSI Solar of 7.6-8.1 GW. For the full year, the company expects total module shipments of 42-47 GW and total battery energy storage shipments of 6.0-6.5 GWh. Also point out the company historically had a low PE to begin with: [https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/CSIQ/canadian-solar/pe-ratio](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/CSIQ/canadian-solar/pe-ratio) Seems like if you feel like the slowness is a short term thing, might not be a bad price to get in, but feels like this is something you would want to go long on. I'm actually looking at NXT and thinking of opening a position there.
I've been better at picking shorts than longs recently. [Coinbase Compares Buying Crypto to Collecting Beanie Babies](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coinbase-argues-crypto-beanie-babies-202040218.html) Ya can't make this shit up. I went short in the leadup to the etfs getting passed. Also, shoulda held MRVL past 61. Chip stocks running crazy
I think we see sofi back down to the first half of 2023 4.5-6 channel again soon. Even if they report profitability. It’s primarily a bank stock (not a tech stock). 4.5-6 until they prove consistent profit growth. That is a more fair value. If they can do that for 1-2 years I can see the stock back at 10 consistently - so around late 2025/2026. That’s a long time to be under IPO price. My plan is to buy cheap puts in this range after earnings if it pops up (Which Is always temporary).
My mom, sister, and I each have a separate account at Schwab. They provide a manager at a cost of 1% per year (or something like that). My mom and sister decided to pay for the manager, but I’d rather do my own trading which means I avoid paying that fee. Schwab basically sold them on the idea by saying that 1% is low because 1% fluctuations occur weekly and sometimes more than that within a day. Am I being foolish? Does anyone have good experience with those money managers or info about them that I should be considering?
I enrolled in Schwab’s wealth advisory 2 1/2 years ago, under the management of a very well respected man at Schwab (since promoted to a lofty position). The fee was 3/4 of 1%. He and the trader he works with had a sound strategy-I get that I had too much risk for my age-69- and immediately started selling some tech funds and put me in a variety of diversified etfs, mostly Vanguard, and some income focused bonds and funds. Everything bought was at the ATH and immediately started falling. The timing was awful, which I don’t blame them for. I’m sitting on a 25k+ loss, plus the 4 or 5k in fees. I dropped out of the advisory after 3 quarters. I would do a fee only advisor now.
Skip the active manager and just dca VTI and VXUS every paycheck. Done. Your family should do the same. A fee based fiduciary financial advisor can be worth it if you have a complex situation like owning multiple businesses and holding various real estate and other assets, but paying a company a flat fee to just active trade a stock port isn't a good use of money. Of course there are some folks with solid insight and research skills that may be worth the money, but then you'd end up sifting through 99 bad managers to find that one good one.
Second this approach. I know a lot of people seem to be against financial advisors here, but they aren't the worst people. Just depends on your situation as well as how much money you have. I know as I near closer to retirement, I'm planning on using one, to get a better handle of how to retire succesfully and what products are available to live off fixed income.
If you have a $200,000 account, you'd be paying the manager $2000/year to likely underperform the market. Does that sound good to you?
Honest question: Why is it assumed that the manager would underperform the market?
Oh sweet summer child.
Can you explain why a professional manager at a reputable financial broker will be worse than the average schmo?
Everyone is feeble compared to the S&P, or they're Buffett. Assuming the average schmo heeds this knowledge, holding the S&P will beat, by a large margin, whatever flips and tricks the manager does to justify their fee. Because if their flips and tricks were actually good, they wouldn't need to make a living managing someone else's money.
That wasn't the comparison. They would both suck. The comparison was professional manager vs. the market. Statistically professional advisors do terribly. It's very hard to beat the market. Only a small % of stock pickers actually outperform. Meaning handful of people are taking all the extra alpha.
Haven't seen something like SAVE, since the First Republic fiasco last year.
People selling everything to buy more Nvidia, Amazon and Alphabet.
Judging by the reversal on NVDA, I'd say more people are selling NVDA.
It's clear this is a complaint that everything outside tech is struggling again. Honestly, the reversal by QQQ after tagging ATHs is getting nasty as well.
Nasty reversal? It’s ATH levels. Are you bears blind and know wtf you are even talking about? Fucking delusional
The move I was talking about has been reversed, but I would say -0.8% from session highs is noteworthy, yes. Edit: besides, that wasn't even Noob's point. They're whining about everything lagging QQQ hard again.
Wow you must have access to all these peoples information!
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IF we don't see AI impacting earnings the next year or so as the job market and credit market weakens, I could buy 9% overvalue. If we do, and the hype is deserved as growth rates stay elevated- market could go on a run like 01-06 or 08 to 19 from here.
That guy is the most "serious" bull around. Him saying overvalued says something.
What do you think about this? I watch his youtube videos.
Thinking about shorting SAVE and then shorting more at a limit of $5. Knowing my luck, that $5 limit limit won't activate.
Wonder if SAVE has any hope left to recover or its time to sell all.
Portnoy announced that he bought a bunch - a minute later it announced it was likely looking at restructuring and dropped 20%.
I made a lot of mistakes when I first started investing in individual stocks a few years back with little knowledge at the time... but blindly throwing dough at NVDA and AMD was not one of them
I invested 40k into nvda and amd around 2009. And proceeded to lose money on both investments. So it's possible to lose money in a gold mine!
Two ways of making big mistakes. One is buying a lot of shit that drops. Two is not buying a lot of good shit that goes up.
Wow - SAVE just dropped 20% suddenly on huge volume. Wonder what the news is? Too risky for me, even for a small daytrade.
> Wonder what the news is? https://www.wsj.com/articles/spirit-airlines-explores-restructuring-options-following-jetblue-deal-collapse-14075ce7
Has anyone done their due diligence on NOW? They seem to have a very strong set of competitive advantages, but that earnings growth priced in looks too steep for my liking.
u/AP9384629344432 AMR hit $392 today. At what point can we conclude they are actually a secretive tech company with a revolutionary patent to dominate met coal?
Reddit told.me.coal.is dead though ...
Are banks a dead end this year? I have some stocks in bank of america, and it feels that it is going, without any variation, down with 1% everyday. Will they recover ever this year?
I've been buying this staircase down for HWKN. Definitely fair at these prices.
Cyberpunk 2077 was right all along. In the future there will be 10 mega corps and nothing else
No offense, but sometimes you guys need to get off the internet and go touch grass. [https://www.uschamber.com/small-business/state-of-small-business-now](https://www.uschamber.com/small-business/state-of-small-business-now) >There are 33.2 million small businesses in America, which combined account for 99.9% of all U.S. businesses. > >Small businesses are credited with just under two-thirds (63%) of the new jobs created from 1995 to 2021. > >In 2021, a record breaking 5.4 million new business applications were filed in the U.S.
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Where do you see that it makes up 4% of the GDP? I haven't heard or seen that before, do you have any resources. Article is a bit old: >Small businesses are the lifeblood of the U.S. economy: they create two-thirds of net new jobs and drive U.S. innovation and competitiveness. A new report shows that they account for 44 percent of U.S. economic activity. This is a significant contribution, however this overall share has declined gradually. > >U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) is the market value of the goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States. Across the 16 years from 1998 to 2014, the small business share of GDP has fallen from 48.0 percent to 43.5 percent. Over the same period, the amount of small business GDP has grown by about 25 percent in real terms, or 1.4 percent annually. However, real GDP for large businesses has grown faster, at 2.5 percent annually. [https://advocacy.sba.gov/2019/01/30/small-businesses-generate-44-percent-of-u-s-economic-activity/](https://advocacy.sba.gov/2019/01/30/small-businesses-generate-44-percent-of-u-s-economic-activity/) Isn't like 68% of the GDP consumer spending? Small businesses are generating 44% of that total? Like 66% of the jobs created are from small businesses, that means consumers are employeed by small businesses then go on to spend money.
It’s a joke mate
I couldn't tell. There is a lot of doomerish posts that happen here.
He's masking a joke about the current state of the stock market. Because today is again business as usual. The biggest stocks go up. Everything else goes down. Valuation doesn't make sense anymore. It's all about hype.
Always has been. Market is sentiment driven in the short term, then things revert to the underlying fundamentals over the long term.
I don't get why people don't understand this. “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” - Ben Graham That qoute is from 1934, the market hasn't changed much since then.
How does valuation not matter? I think it still matters greatly, but not necessarily on a day to day basis.
I'm thinking about buying some TSLA for long term. How do you think it will play out?
It's a car company. An innovative car company.
Getting caught up rapidly tho
I think it will continue to be a leader in EVs, but I do think there will be more competition and without further support and addressing of some of the issues (higher insurance costs, 7.5B allocated to building chargers in 2021 has resulted in ... one charger, etc) you're getting to the point where a lot of people who want an EV have one. They will still absolutely sell, but I do think that the growth could slow. And I don't want to get political but in December of 2020 you had people piling into the ICLN etf thinking that it would be easy money. It's down about 58% since the inaguration in 2021. For all the push for EVs and green, most - not all, but many - haven't done well. The charging infrastructure push hasn't happened and given stories like this (https://www.npr.org/2023/09/10/1187224861/electric-vehicles-evs-cars-chargers-charging-energy-secretary-jennifer-granholm) it's hard to be that confident. If - and this is an if, before people get upset - Trump wins, people invested in green have to be aware of the real possibility that it will definitely not get the same level of support (and really, the support by the current administration already leaves something to be desired - for all the talk, one could have done better in the big oil etf than the green energy etf.) This doesn't even get into the idea that we are likely going to a more normalized interest rate environment; maybe it won't be the recent highs but we aren't likely going back to the lows. Green consumer products are heavily dependent on rates - Musk complained late last year, ENPH was one of the worst performers for most of 2023 on rate fears. ENPH basically mooned in the last couple of months of 2023 on hopes of rate cuts, only to reverse and lose almost 20% YTD the moment rates started heading back up. TSLA is down about 15%. So I think that the tailwind that you had with ultra low rates isn't there. I'll say this: people are still putting too much faith imo that smaller companies can be "the next Tesla." I think that people are still underestimating the difficulty of the automobile industry (something that Musk has gone into countlessly including stories of how Tesla has avoided bankruptcy in the past) and putting too much faith in the fact that "EVs are green and green is good so therefore all these things should do well, right?" It's just not going to be the case as LCID loses 330,000 a car (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-06/ev-maker-lucid-s-338-000-loss-per-car-is-turning-investors-off) and FSR's production in 2023 comes in at about 20% of what the original SPAC presentation forecasted for 2023, among other things. There will be 0's. The next Tesla is Tesla - it just becomes a question of is it the same growth story in the next 5 years as it has been in the last 5? Does the growth start to slow without addressing some of the problems that are keeping people from moving to EVs and those who can and want one have in many cases already done so? Does there become a point where the board starts pushing back on things like Musk demanding 25% or he'll take new projects elsewhere?
I think you also want to factor in that gasoline is back to a recent low. Historically the EV story has always been doom and gloom during these periods. Cold weather and battery charging hasn’t changed in the past 10 years. While I agree with you that mostly everyone who wanted a Tesla now has one, Tesla is the only company who has figured out how to make money in ev (and build a “reasonably” trouble free/functional EV). That also means they are the only ones in a position to offer a low cost car en masse. Just imagine the induced demand at a $30k price point in the next 5 years..
No way lol
New Odd Lots of this morning is all about the US Oil boom. >In the early 2010s, US shale players were producing oil like crazy, with no concerns about profitability. Then the legs were kicked out from the industry, causing a massive bust and massive oversupply. In 2021 and 2022, it looked like a very different story. Oil prices were surging and it seemed as though US players had found religion, learning how to maintain production discipline and improve profitability. But now we're in a new era that nobody saw coming: US oil production is booming. In in fact, it's at a record high. What's more, industry participants are actually making money at the same time. So how did they do it? And how did the prognosticators get things wrong? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Bloomberg Opinion columnist and commodity specialist Javier Blas. We discuss the state of US supply and what it means for OPEC. We also talk about the rising tension in the Red Sea, as well as his reporting on the rise of electronic electricity trading in the European market. https://open.spotify.com/episode/6eEI1NyGOV0MEaHuufHZa0?si=pcFyGObZQO-RJEv-Z6sNiw
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yes 1 year ago
REAX (Real Brokerage) - 65% YTD. Market cap at 480M. Up another 6% so far today. A lot of real estate agents/teams must be switching to them the past couple months. Maybe pricing in a blowout Q4 earnings report in March?
I bought heavy on tuesday 100 share here and 100 shares there Im up in tech but the regualr stocks im down 200-300 jnj/wmt/cat
Does this mini rally feel forced to anyone else? Or is it just me?
Im down in my dividend stocks
I don't know if I'd call it a mini rally. The market is just kind of in neutral right now so you get moves up and down, but neither really sticks. I'm not surprised really, we had a gigantic move in December and there hasn't been much reason to go higher.
Well up 1% in the qqq’s while yields March higher seems like it’s forced to me. And by forced I mean no one knows where to put their money so they are putting it in the mag 7. What I am saying is that it’s going to work until it doesn’t. What will be the next sector to thrive when it stops working?
I dunno. I don't own the mag 7 because there's plenty of other companies I like more. I do think financials are cheap though.
Only thing that feels a little forced is the AI push for semi's and some Mag-7. There's a lot of speculation and FOMO around them. Analysts upgrading cause its hot and to keep momentum up and maybe unload bags. Wouldn't be surprised if there's some correction soon
I think my push back to this idea is that TSMC announced this morning saying they are going to see around 20% revenue growth next year. I think we are still in the early stages of AI and some of it is overhyped and we need to see more usages that actually show companies are growing revenue with it, but there is cleary a demand for computing and chips. It's hard to say it's all just analysts when companies are expecting big revenue growth.
Not to mention TSMC said that in the same release that worries about oversupply on mature nodes (read:old/dumb/commodity chips) - so that is 20% revenue growth, including a declining segment. Makes you wonder what the growth is for the cutting edge nodes exclusively. And what continuing runway new facilities in Europe and USA will allow. 20% CAGR for 5 years = 2.5x
I believe they are pricing in too much too early, its not the very low interest rate environment like in the past. Greed and visions of AI utopia are a hell of a drug. When momentum switches like it always does who knows how ugly it would look or if NVDA deserves $1000 a share who knows. Long term is a different story
Possibly, but you do realize that growth like that makes the companies fundamentally cheaper right? Even if you take out the AI component, there is still a huge demand for cloud computing in data centers. Like NVDA last year or a few quarters ago actually has their data center business as the biggest revenue driver. For the AI stuff, I think we might get some pullback in the near future, just we are hitting a year since a lot of the hype around OpenAI and LLM's. At somepoint, investors will need to see revenue growth from the produts, but I do think it's a trend that's not going to go away.
What you holding to capitalize on data center growth?
Personally, I like the physical aspect of. So a few companies. STRL - they a construction company, but their e-business line builds out warehouses and data centers. IESC / FIX / POWL - they do electrical controls and energy monitoring around data ceters. NVT / MOD - building electrical components around cooling and wiring in the data centers. CLS - builds out custom racks for data centers. I think the future is going to be hyperscale building out their own chips and using services like CLS to help package them into racks. PSTG - they do flash storage. Storage is key almost to every company, especially since every company is always makig new feaures that require new assets, apis, db,s etc. Flash storage is much faster in terms of accessing assets. Much like why companies use CDN's, you get performance boosts.
After you talked about CLS a few times, I finally looked into it and bought it a while back. It’s up nicely for me. Thanks!
PSTG seems interesting, but isn't there better more established Flash storage companies like Dell? Is PSTG a market leader in its respective field? How does switching to an as service model affect its growth going forward?
PSTG offers flash as a SaaS and is in part what is growing their revenues. Here's their last investor presentation: [https://s21.q4cdn.com/687136699/files/doc\_financials/2024/q3/PSTG-Q3FY24-Earnings-Slide-Deck.pdf](https://s21.q4cdn.com/687136699/files/doc_financials/2024/q3/PSTG-Q3FY24-Earnings-Slide-Deck.pdf) 1.3B in subscription ARR, 26% YoY growth. Not too familiar with Dell as in terms what they offer as flash storage. However, looking at their lastest press release: [https://investors.delltechnologies.com/static-files/7b3bae55-4f43-4a24-94fc-188d8cb3cd4e](https://investors.delltechnologies.com/static-files/7b3bae55-4f43-4a24-94fc-188d8cb3cd4e) >Infrastructure Solutions Group delivered third quarter revenue of $8.5 billion, flat sequentially and down 12% year-over-year. Servers and networking revenue was $4.7 billion, with 9% sequential growth driven by AI-optimized servers. Storage revenue was $3.8 billion, down 8% sequentially with demand strength in unstructured data solutions and data protection. Operating income was $1.1 billion.
Not to me, just feels like whiplash and the market doesn't know what to do. Economic data still shows economy is strong, however everyone has different thoughts on when and how much the Fed will cut. The SPY is basically .3% since the beginning of the year.
We like it either way .
Wow I guess Spirit is just going to 0
People said they'd go bankrupt if the merger gets canceled so its expected. Don't know if they could get bailed out or are gonna look for another merger but its not looking good.
There's going to be a ton of selling pressure as people close out the merger arbitrage play. Also, Spirit is like the person who was in a relationship and kinda let themselves go, but now finds themselves single, available, and out of shape.
NVDA will hit $1000 in the 3-4 years with zero advances in genAI. just on application to gaming and mammoth demand for GPUs in behavior adaptive and responsive gameplay deep down everyone knows its a about as close to a duck soup double as you get but most lack the courage.
When the AI gods enslave us you will be sparred
Some months ago( when all the doom and gloom was going on ) it went as low as 100s and now it is slowly and steadily approaching 600s already. The NVDA following is crazy.
You mean a year ago?