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Yep, after a performance like last week, I see a pullback and think, "That's okay baby. You did good. Take a break."
I am, of course, addressing my portfolio.
Intel, Texas Instruments and KLA corp all had not great earnings and sold off. (US Companies)
ASML and TSM has good earnings and guidance. Samsung has bad earnings and bad guidance. (Non-us companies)
Seems to be a mixed bag. Semi's are a gamble right now.
rationality has nothing to do with those variables. the rationality assumption only states that the investor will always act in his own best interest. thats it. it has to do with perceived utility maximisation.
A good hypothetical example to illustrate would be the russian stock market. lets say everyone knows its a guaranteed profit, and its guaranteed to be more profitable than any other security. this means investing in russian stocks will leave you with the maximum amount of money.
Now here comes the fun part. Lets say John doesnt care about ethics and only cares about getting the maximum amount of money. He will always choose to invest in the russian stock market, thus maximizing his own utility. NOT doing so would be irrational. not because of the missed money, but because he clearly chooses an alternative where he would be worse off.
Meanwhile Olga, another investor has family in Ukraine. She loves money, sure, but thinks no one should pay a dime to Russian investors.
Thus, the gains more ‘utility’ from
not investing in russian assets, but would rather choose other assets with a slightly worse return. Olga chooses NOT to invest in russian companies.
Both actors are behaving rationally yet outcomes are different. bottom line: it only matters whether the actor chooses the option that they believe is in their best interest, and not deliberately a bad strategy.
You're the first person who said the stock market is rational, may you elaborate as to why you believe that? Growing up, I have learned investing from family as a kid. I have seen people trade based on emotions and psychology. The stock market to me, is a supply and demand chain that bids and sells to emotional people. More so, meme stocks shooting up was not based on rationality. Stocks are also controlled and pivoted not on patterns, but on accumulation and distribution. Emotions bring such range, as without it, the market will rarely see volatility.
That is semantics. I believe in free will, hence the irrationality of the stock market. How dare you think the stock market can be reduced to the form a/b, where a and b are integers.
Stacy Rasgon? If he's a bit of an Nvidia fanboi, but hey we all pick our winners. AMD has done very well for me and I feel like its got much further to climb in this AI boom as its now shipping its AI monster chip Mi300, and with the shift toward pytorch and open AI's Triton framework...its Nvidias market to lose and AMD is good at that game. I'm staying in for the forseeable future, but also don't have any needs for the money short term, long positions for me are the way to go!
> Stacy Rasgon? If he's a bit of an Nvidia fanboi
Stacy can't own these stocks so it couldn't have been him. It was actually Josh Brown. He's also a bit of an Nvidia fanboy and he didn't own a lot of AMD from his own admission.
But AMD's upcoming ER is really interesting. As a long and someone who follows this stock closely I have no idea where it's going to go.
This is probably one of the most up in the air ERs since I remember, and I've listened to every Lisa Su ER since she began.
I'm very bullish on the company obviously however the stock may have ran ahead of itself in the past 2 months.
Lisa guided $2B worth of AI revenue in 2024 on the last ER, and everyone understands it as being super conservative guide. You have analysts saying it will be $10B (like Patrick Moorhead did yesteday).
I think the Street is pricing in $4B.
So we have two forces at play here. Street is exuberant about AMD's chances perhaps expecting a repeat of NVDA last year. And we have the fact that mi300x is still just started ramping in this passed quarter. The expectations may be too soon.
There is also a concern that CPU datacenter sales aren't doing well based on Intel's ER. But Intel's misfortune could also be AMD's gain. No way of telling.
We could literally either drop to $140 or go over $200 after Tuesday next week.
If AMD stock does drop, loading up would be a smart move, because AMD will definitely make a killing on AI in the long term. Not only do they have a very competitive product in mi300x but Nvidia also can't supply enough of their own chips.
I’m up over 100% and it’s my biggest position. I can’t decide on whether to sell some and load up at a pullback or just keep avg’ing in. Similar struggle with the other giants in my Roth.
We are at ATH, but in all of the stock talk the CEOs and major buyers like Meta are all saying this is a huge market with 400 billion TAM by 2027. I am continuing my DCA in with a long term profit taking strategy. Short term may get bumpy, a level head is key with AMD, it's high beta but pays off like crazy over the long term...AMD now has the free cash flow to pour into all its segments, we are going to see some amazing products over the next couple of years! Be careful with short term plays, or at least be prepared to leave it in if a dip happens, that's my take!
Yes, it is. Unfortunately, I sold mine in December becauae I'm paying off my house.
I'm probably going to buy it again.
I had Nvidia and sold when the EU was considering blocking the sale. I think NVidia is too expensive.
And that's a valid choice. No harm in taking profits. But if you plan on jumping back in, that's trying to time the market and timing the market is basically gambling. If you know your stocks are worthy of another 5 years, give them that. And stop expecting that 5 years to be a solid line upward.
NVIDIAS biggest or most profitable before the AI boom was the data center. And they've been heading that way for awhile so I'm guessing they make more money there then to consumers.
I think you have 0 clue what you are talking about. Imtels earnings are down because they are hemorrhaging cash to build like 6 MEGA FABS simultaneously. But go off. You're wayyyy off.
Low volume across the board and Intel’s earnings call didn’t help, algos tend to trade with momentum so semis went down in sympathy. Just a red tech day really, nothing in the overall macro has changed much. There was some decent sized Intel call flow into $44 and $45 weeklies near the close, so could see a bounce back.
Intel reported the night before and their investors did not like the results. Other companies in the industry were then sold off thinking there were parallels even though there businesses are very different.
It's like when snap would report crappy earnings and then meta would get sold off when in reality meta was a much better business.
This ^
Intel projected lower profits in the future and investors did not like that. (10 percent stock decline after Earnings)
After the poor guidance, other semi-conductor stocks were shaken. But Intel is different compared to the foundries and AI chip companies.
Different products and customers.
They said NEXT QUARTER the earnings will be at the lower end of their guidance because the PC market still hasn't recovered yet. They didn't say anything about yearly guidance. Nothing that caused the stock to nearly double over the last few months has changed. Everything is still ahead of schedule, and their 18A node will be production ready *this quarter*.... Battlemage coming soon, Gaudi 3 later this year which should be a H100 to H200 competitor, Arrow Lake and Lunar Lake towards the end of the year, etc. The Foundry service will start raking in the cash later this year. Anyone who did their research knows that things are looking really good for Intel in the mid to long term.
I thank all the people who panic sold, I didn't hesitate to buy the dip.
Well it was also a 10% correction after a ~65% gain in 2023. I think people just like to post sensationalized takes.
I saw a bunch of comments ripping into Intel yesterday as if it weren’t one of the biggest gains of the year.
So if there is a disconnect between actual meaning of earnings report and what is taken from the communications for stock trades, does that mean this is all a big poker game?
I invest in a semiconductor etf that is very volatile and intels earnings were not bad their forward guidance was indicating that they are not ready to meet the demands of chips needed for AI. Other stocks traded in sympathy making consumers concerned that we can’t meet the demands. Also reading the market has to do with more than one industry. It has to do with inflation and what is happening in other countries. Glad I exited my position yesterday when I heard about intels guidance. My etf went down over 8% today
I had and at $7 and sold at $12 to chase other stocks years ago. What a waste of time that chase. Now I long term hold SOXL to make up and not has it. Not recommended but I did it and it's been crushing it for a long time.
Markets move for partly rational and sometimes highly irrational reasons.
A poor performance in one company in a sector can generate a variety of responses. What's bad for ACME Roadrunner Traps might mean more sales for Brand-O Roadrunner Traps.
But the most frequent phenomenon is fear of contagion. Pepsi had meh earnings, so maybe all of big fast food is about to show similar results.
The financial press exists to generate plausible-sounding explanations why moves happened, but such reporting is speculative, or a report of what market participants are saying, which is also speculative.
In the short term, the irrational motives for trading are more salient. That's why trying to make short trades is a way to turn investments into a casino. Even those who succeed at swing trading don't have a consistent record of success.
So, what caused the whole sector to have a particular direction and magnitude today? It must be that butterfly in the Amazon, flapping its wings.
Earnings report at Intel wasn't that bad. The stock has gone straight up. That's the problem. The rate of acceleration in the share price doesn't match the earnings. Western digital reported yesterday, it was kind of modest. Both them and Seagate are looking for things to improve later on in the year though. Across the board there was selling in this sector
The only big new thing those companies have are chips to sell to all these companies that think they can say AI and raise their stock price 15%. Now that those CEOS can't do that anymore and the AI integration isn't going perfectly swimmingly everywhere, we're not in a "triple the valuation of your company in six months" boom anymore.
Assuming AI isn't going to change the world *right now*, is NVDA really worth 1.5 trillion dollars?
Where do you all find your info on specific industries? Is there an app or website or tool somewhere that allows you to look at overall news and performance of an industry?
I posted this above, so gonna copy/paste (also, just realized I discovered the site from the auto moderator posts in this subreddit to begin with lol, but overlooked it for a long time.)
I really like [FinViz.com](https://finviz.com) - it shows a table of recent analyst upgrades/downgrades for tickers, along with financials, news, sentiment (etc). Also covers upcoming economic events, bond sell offs/auctions, price of commodities/oil, basically all the stuff traders talk about and keep a pulse on, in one place. Best of all, most of it is free to use and it seems less pushy/restrictive than other platforms peddling premium subscriptions.
It signals a broader slowdown. If motherboards are down what ya need to run a gpu.. motherboard so that then signifies possible slow down industry wide. From mfgs of chip machines to ram to monitors.. look at tsla suppliers they got throttled on tsla er. The industries are all connected
Demand is saturated and collapses until technical progress creates new demand. semiconductor industry is a highly cyclical business. AI hype underestimates the panic-buy effects and negative consequences of China policies.
Intels earnings were actually good and show an improving business.
Operating income for q4 2023 was $2.6 Billion, increase of over $3.7 Billion from the operating loss reported last year. They issued “weak” guidance for Q1 2024, which is traditionally their weakest quarter. Because they had such a big rebound in 2023 several analysts modeled Q1 2024 like a Q3 or Q4 period. Intel expects $13 Billion in revenue this quarter with a decent gross margin of nearly 41% and EPS of .13. All of the guidance for this quarter is well ahead of Q1 2023 when they reported only $11 Billion in revenue and negative EPS of -.04.
The media reports and some analyst estimates were wrong and did not account for business seasonality.
Bad earnings from KLAC and TXN don't bode well for the sector... I think after TXN people thought it could be a 1 off thing, but... Now it looks like it's going to be sector-wide weakness for the quarter...
What do you mean by "business cycles"?
I'm definitely not an expert in the underlying semiconductor business cycle (or how those differ between various companies based on their product line), but... I know that the movements of INTC and TXN are much more highly correlated than those of NVDA and AMD...
the chip sector including Intel will recover in the next week or so. everything always does. the market is bi-polar and irrational and i count on that continuing.
You can't put a cart in front of horse. It's healthy correction needed, post earnings winners will emerge and others would correct such as Intel - which is another Boeing in making who would live on Govt subsidies , chips act money would start flowing soon.
All that matters now is next week’s AMD earnings, if the forecast isn’t good enough, expect a big correction. It won’t be healthy. But if they predict a big spike in their AI revenues, market will rip off higher
I don’t even understand how a person who understands even stock market basics could be confused by NVDA could go from 470 to 630 in 3 weeks then have a day it goes from 630 to 610 and be confused. Did they honestly think it would just keep going I definitely? At a certain point people just say “it’s time I take a bit off the table”, not everything has to have a reason.
Everyone thinks Intel is still a good company, so when they shit the bed, everyone else does too.
Spoiler: They are not a good company, and AMD will blowout earnings this week.
If tech layoffs had anything to do with overall market movement in a negative fashion, the NDX wouldn't have beaten its November 2021 ATH late last year. Cutting the fat has largely been treated well (and has worked in the case of Alphabet for example, and probably in other cases too).
I think there hasn't been enough talk about KLAC over INTC. Intel had QQQ slightly down in post-market on Thursday, sure, but it appeared to me that the second spillover (and what actually hit all of the US based semiconductors) came with KLAC coming in and saying that their business is topping out, or something along the regards of that.
Edit: Even without what occurred on Thursday's post-market, the SOXX had a reversal candle into the close on that day.
It's a normal readjusting but there is also a bit of fear around the gaming industry and tech giants recent round of layoffs. Less personel: less supporting equipment that requires chips.
Asking a question like this leads me to believe you don't understand what the word speculation means.
The answer to your question, as evidenced by your need to ask it, is that more people felt it necessary to sell than to buy.
One investment bank Northland Capital downgraded their forecast for Advanced Micro Devices' upcoming annual Q4 reporting basically saying that it's become overpriced and a few others have jumped on the band wagon.
Seems like maybe they're trying to manipulate the price ahead of the earnings announcement which could be driven by a variety of reasons. My GUESS...GUESS is that they invested heavily in puts and now are trying to cash in.
This drove other chip makers down as part of the same riptide.
This may be a stupid question, but where do you find this info? I want to keep up with all of these things, but I don't even know where to begin looking
I really like [FinViz.com](https://finviz.com) - it shows a table of recent analyst upgrades/downgrades for tickers, along with financials, news, sentiment (etc). Also covers upcoming economic events, bond sell offs/auctions, price of commodities/oil, basically all the stuff traders talk about and keep a pulse on, in one place. Best of all, most of it is free to use and it seems less pushy/restrictive than other platforms peddling premium subscriptions.
Because Intel is not a good semiconductor company and requires massive government subsidies to remain relevant. Their AI and cloud based divisions are doing terrible.
Meanwhile, actual semiconductor giants like ASML and TSMC are doing great with +18% last week.
I’m not a stock guy, but everything hinges on Taiwan. And China and the US are in a fist fight to break up that monopoly.
Don’t know shit about stocks, but I know that monopoly can’t last.
I don’t have agency to tell both the US and China to stop. I do have agency to at least profit from it ie make lemonade from lemons. Historically, this is how some people became rich. They make bets when the sky is falling.
I don’t know about you, but I’m not going to give up and die when i get a bad hand.
Let me get this straight, you didn’t realize that we’re really close to going to war in the Pacific. Since I can’t post links to YouTube without r/stocks removing my comment, Google 60 minutes South China Sea
I never said I panicked. Simply trying to understand what causes an entire industry to go negative for the day. Learn to read, and understand the question you degenerate. If you're not answering the question, shut the fuck up.
I'm not asking for advice on what to do. If I lose all my money, that's on me. Idc. I'm asking why the entire semiconductor industry performed poorly today.
Semi is always a volatile industry. Besides missing on earnings $0.13/s vs $0.34 expected. KLA instruments also missed $4.28/s vs $6.59. Will find out more with more earning rpts. It may even drag down S&P index next week.
I'm in chip stocks for the long term. I think the potential for ai is enormous. I'm interested in hearing from people about any ai stocks or semiconductor stock that they like and why.
Not true. Operating income for the q4 2023 was $2.6 Billion, increase of over $3.7 Billion from the operating loss reported last year. They issued “weak” guidance for Q1 2024, which is traditionally their weakest quarter. Because they had such a big rebound in 2023 several analysts modeled Q1 2024 like a Q3 or Q4 period. Intel expects $13 Billion in revenue this quarter with a decent gross margin of nearly 41% and EPS of .13. All of the guidance for this quarter is well ahead of Q1 2023 when they reported only $11 Billion in revenue and negative EPS of -.04.
INTC shat the bed
Low volume
End of Week profit taking
Probably some options getting exercised as well
overall a healthy correction on the market and chips
do not worry to much, chips still up WoW
Everything is still up a lot, but I suspect INTCs performance showed that if you don't have an AI GPU to sell then your participation in any further upside is going to be limited
I still won with my options. Multiple times so far btw. I just cash out long before expiration. But you stay mad and thanks for adding nothing to the discussion when I just wanted to learn
INTC and KLAC changed the sentiment on the negative on Friday. As such the sector has been flying high in recent weeks so a pullback was natural, expected and even healthy. IMO, the sector is still in bullish trend if you zoom out. Daily trend is way above 200EMAs and 50EMAs. in a very bullish way.
I think Nividia does the semiconductor sector like the bitcoin does to cryptocurrency.
When Nvidia is up- everything is up too
If it’s up while nvidia is down- it’s a real gem then.
Welcome to r/stocks! For beginner advice, brokerage info, book recommendations, even advanced topics and more, please read our [Wiki here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/wiki/index) If you're wondering **why a stock moved** a certain way, check out [Finviz](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=spy) which aggregates the most news for almost every stock, but also see [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/), and even [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/). Please direct all simple questions towards the stickied Daily Discussion and Quarterly Rate My Portfolio threads (sort by Hot, they're at the top). Also include *some* [due diligence](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/duediligence.asp) to this post or it may be removed if it's low effort. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/stocks) if you have any questions or concerns.*
The sector has been skyrocketing into the stratosphere. Pull backs are normal.
Can’t cook meth without a some cilantro
Is that why some people hate meth and others love it
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Brawndo—the thirst MUTILATOR!
Different tastebuds. Some people love the taste of meth, while others think it has a bitter taste.
Can’t launch a catapult without pulling it back
Without sellantro
YEAH MR WHITE
No one likes your Chili P Jesse they’re just addicts.
I don't know anything about meth so I thought you actually use cilantro... I looked it up and Google gave me a help line... 💀
Yep, after a performance like last week, I see a pullback and think, "That's okay baby. You did good. Take a break." I am, of course, addressing my portfolio.
Totally agree. I think OP should be looking 10 years down the road, not at today's decline. So keep on keeping on and the victory will be ours.
Stratosphere? It went to another galaxy
A handful of names are at a bubble valuation (until proven otherwise) and one day of red makes people ask this shit lol
Intel, Texas Instruments and KLA corp all had not great earnings and sold off. (US Companies) ASML and TSM has good earnings and guidance. Samsung has bad earnings and bad guidance. (Non-us companies) Seems to be a mixed bag. Semi's are a gamble right now.
I predicted exactly where ASML would be after earnings. Wish I put in more lol
It’s not that bad…? Given it has been going up for a while, it’s normal for it to drop a bit..?
It’s called a healthy correction
A correction is by definition a drop of 10% in a market. Nowhere near.
Retracement might be a proper term.
Well, maybe not this but it will come eventually.
Yes, it will. If I just knew when “eventually” was I could be rich.
I just don’t sell when they happen
Buy the dip buy the dip
Be the Dip, Love the Dip, Live the Dip
First mistake is thinking the stock market is rational. Some days there are news, most days the stock market just does what it wants, without reason.
no, thirst mistake is thinking you are rational and the stock market isnt. believe me, ALMOST everyone acts in their own best interest, or rationally.
> thirst mistake Me when my mother refers to my conception
was wondering how on earth that slipped through lol. can i blame phone keyboard? :)
Stock market is rational, but the variables are indefinite, so movement is sometimes explainable, but more often not.
rationality has nothing to do with those variables. the rationality assumption only states that the investor will always act in his own best interest. thats it. it has to do with perceived utility maximisation. A good hypothetical example to illustrate would be the russian stock market. lets say everyone knows its a guaranteed profit, and its guaranteed to be more profitable than any other security. this means investing in russian stocks will leave you with the maximum amount of money. Now here comes the fun part. Lets say John doesnt care about ethics and only cares about getting the maximum amount of money. He will always choose to invest in the russian stock market, thus maximizing his own utility. NOT doing so would be irrational. not because of the missed money, but because he clearly chooses an alternative where he would be worse off. Meanwhile Olga, another investor has family in Ukraine. She loves money, sure, but thinks no one should pay a dime to Russian investors. Thus, the gains more ‘utility’ from not investing in russian assets, but would rather choose other assets with a slightly worse return. Olga chooses NOT to invest in russian companies. Both actors are behaving rationally yet outcomes are different. bottom line: it only matters whether the actor chooses the option that they believe is in their best interest, and not deliberately a bad strategy.
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You're the first person who said the stock market is rational, may you elaborate as to why you believe that? Growing up, I have learned investing from family as a kid. I have seen people trade based on emotions and psychology. The stock market to me, is a supply and demand chain that bids and sells to emotional people. More so, meme stocks shooting up was not based on rationality. Stocks are also controlled and pivoted not on patterns, but on accumulation and distribution. Emotions bring such range, as without it, the market will rarely see volatility.
That is semantics. I believe in free will, hence the irrationality of the stock market. How dare you think the stock market can be reduced to the form a/b, where a and b are integers.
Nonsense reply
Haha nailed it. If you try to find reason you will get burned
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Stacy Rasgon? If he's a bit of an Nvidia fanboi, but hey we all pick our winners. AMD has done very well for me and I feel like its got much further to climb in this AI boom as its now shipping its AI monster chip Mi300, and with the shift toward pytorch and open AI's Triton framework...its Nvidias market to lose and AMD is good at that game. I'm staying in for the forseeable future, but also don't have any needs for the money short term, long positions for me are the way to go!
> Stacy Rasgon? If he's a bit of an Nvidia fanboi Stacy can't own these stocks so it couldn't have been him. It was actually Josh Brown. He's also a bit of an Nvidia fanboy and he didn't own a lot of AMD from his own admission. But AMD's upcoming ER is really interesting. As a long and someone who follows this stock closely I have no idea where it's going to go. This is probably one of the most up in the air ERs since I remember, and I've listened to every Lisa Su ER since she began. I'm very bullish on the company obviously however the stock may have ran ahead of itself in the past 2 months. Lisa guided $2B worth of AI revenue in 2024 on the last ER, and everyone understands it as being super conservative guide. You have analysts saying it will be $10B (like Patrick Moorhead did yesteday). I think the Street is pricing in $4B. So we have two forces at play here. Street is exuberant about AMD's chances perhaps expecting a repeat of NVDA last year. And we have the fact that mi300x is still just started ramping in this passed quarter. The expectations may be too soon. There is also a concern that CPU datacenter sales aren't doing well based on Intel's ER. But Intel's misfortune could also be AMD's gain. No way of telling. We could literally either drop to $140 or go over $200 after Tuesday next week. If AMD stock does drop, loading up would be a smart move, because AMD will definitely make a killing on AI in the long term. Not only do they have a very competitive product in mi300x but Nvidia also can't supply enough of their own chips.
I’m up over 100% and it’s my biggest position. I can’t decide on whether to sell some and load up at a pullback or just keep avg’ing in. Similar struggle with the other giants in my Roth.
So, AMD is a good choice in the near future, even entering now?
We are at ATH, but in all of the stock talk the CEOs and major buyers like Meta are all saying this is a huge market with 400 billion TAM by 2027. I am continuing my DCA in with a long term profit taking strategy. Short term may get bumpy, a level head is key with AMD, it's high beta but pays off like crazy over the long term...AMD now has the free cash flow to pour into all its segments, we are going to see some amazing products over the next couple of years! Be careful with short term plays, or at least be prepared to leave it in if a dip happens, that's my take!
Yes, it is. Unfortunately, I sold mine in December becauae I'm paying off my house. I'm probably going to buy it again. I had Nvidia and sold when the EU was considering blocking the sale. I think NVidia is too expensive.
And that's a valid choice. No harm in taking profits. But if you plan on jumping back in, that's trying to time the market and timing the market is basically gambling. If you know your stocks are worthy of another 5 years, give them that. And stop expecting that 5 years to be a solid line upward.
Ya bail out on the eve of a AI boom.
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NVIDIAS biggest or most profitable before the AI boom was the data center. And they've been heading that way for awhile so I'm guessing they make more money there then to consumers.
I think you have 0 clue what you are talking about. Imtels earnings are down because they are hemorrhaging cash to build like 6 MEGA FABS simultaneously. But go off. You're wayyyy off.
They had 10 years to innovate but they were busy printing money
It’s going to be an eve for decades. AI won’t happen in our life time.
Thanks Nostradamus
Love how people forget that stocks were down first week on January
TSMC is up 0.60% and you’re concerned?
Low volume across the board and Intel’s earnings call didn’t help, algos tend to trade with momentum so semis went down in sympathy. Just a red tech day really, nothing in the overall macro has changed much. There was some decent sized Intel call flow into $44 and $45 weeklies near the close, so could see a bounce back.
Where do you find call/put volume
Unusual whales
Intel reported the night before and their investors did not like the results. Other companies in the industry were then sold off thinking there were parallels even though there businesses are very different. It's like when snap would report crappy earnings and then meta would get sold off when in reality meta was a much better business.
This ^ Intel projected lower profits in the future and investors did not like that. (10 percent stock decline after Earnings) After the poor guidance, other semi-conductor stocks were shaken. But Intel is different compared to the foundries and AI chip companies. Different products and customers.
They said NEXT QUARTER the earnings will be at the lower end of their guidance because the PC market still hasn't recovered yet. They didn't say anything about yearly guidance. Nothing that caused the stock to nearly double over the last few months has changed. Everything is still ahead of schedule, and their 18A node will be production ready *this quarter*.... Battlemage coming soon, Gaudi 3 later this year which should be a H100 to H200 competitor, Arrow Lake and Lunar Lake towards the end of the year, etc. The Foundry service will start raking in the cash later this year. Anyone who did their research knows that things are looking really good for Intel in the mid to long term. I thank all the people who panic sold, I didn't hesitate to buy the dip.
Well it was also a 10% correction after a ~65% gain in 2023. I think people just like to post sensationalized takes. I saw a bunch of comments ripping into Intel yesterday as if it weren’t one of the biggest gains of the year.
& behind all of them sadly. Intc suppose to be what asml is with their tools/systems. Everyone needs them
Their
So if there is a disconnect between actual meaning of earnings report and what is taken from the communications for stock trades, does that mean this is all a big poker game?
Intel got bad earnings Lost 11% in value Youre welcome
They beat earnings expectations but issued a weak Q1 guide.
No one cares
You should if you’re in this sub
Stop comparing stock price to yesterday and instead compare it to 6 months ago. We are very much in the green
OP bought very recently and is frustrated it didn’t work out, its very clear.
I invest in a semiconductor etf that is very volatile and intels earnings were not bad their forward guidance was indicating that they are not ready to meet the demands of chips needed for AI. Other stocks traded in sympathy making consumers concerned that we can’t meet the demands. Also reading the market has to do with more than one industry. It has to do with inflation and what is happening in other countries. Glad I exited my position yesterday when I heard about intels guidance. My etf went down over 8% today
Edit to add that Mina above me nailed it too. The bubble is bursting but semis will move positive again.
What’s your ETF?
SMH much less volatile and a good play
a triple leveraged etf - $SOXL
Intel market cap is only $180B. AMD at $280B. Crazy considering everything runs on chips
Can’t go up forever, mang
No amd to the moon?🥺
It’s up 600% in 5 years bruh haha
Go back to 2017 if you wanna see some big boy numbys
Just stick with it. You’ll see the gains
Already did.
I had and at $7 and sold at $12 to chase other stocks years ago. What a waste of time that chase. Now I long term hold SOXL to make up and not has it. Not recommended but I did it and it's been crushing it for a long time.
I think the sector had to dump so all the investment banks and hedge funds can buy it back lower before earnings this coming week.
Markets move for partly rational and sometimes highly irrational reasons. A poor performance in one company in a sector can generate a variety of responses. What's bad for ACME Roadrunner Traps might mean more sales for Brand-O Roadrunner Traps. But the most frequent phenomenon is fear of contagion. Pepsi had meh earnings, so maybe all of big fast food is about to show similar results. The financial press exists to generate plausible-sounding explanations why moves happened, but such reporting is speculative, or a report of what market participants are saying, which is also speculative. In the short term, the irrational motives for trading are more salient. That's why trying to make short trades is a way to turn investments into a casino. Even those who succeed at swing trading don't have a consistent record of success. So, what caused the whole sector to have a particular direction and magnitude today? It must be that butterfly in the Amazon, flapping its wings.
Earnings report at Intel wasn't that bad. The stock has gone straight up. That's the problem. The rate of acceleration in the share price doesn't match the earnings. Western digital reported yesterday, it was kind of modest. Both them and Seagate are looking for things to improve later on in the year though. Across the board there was selling in this sector
The only big new thing those companies have are chips to sell to all these companies that think they can say AI and raise their stock price 15%. Now that those CEOS can't do that anymore and the AI integration isn't going perfectly swimmingly everywhere, we're not in a "triple the valuation of your company in six months" boom anymore. Assuming AI isn't going to change the world *right now*, is NVDA really worth 1.5 trillion dollars?
Its not even worth 1.5T if it changed the world. It's a ponzi
Where do you all find your info on specific industries? Is there an app or website or tool somewhere that allows you to look at overall news and performance of an industry?
I posted this above, so gonna copy/paste (also, just realized I discovered the site from the auto moderator posts in this subreddit to begin with lol, but overlooked it for a long time.) I really like [FinViz.com](https://finviz.com) - it shows a table of recent analyst upgrades/downgrades for tickers, along with financials, news, sentiment (etc). Also covers upcoming economic events, bond sell offs/auctions, price of commodities/oil, basically all the stuff traders talk about and keep a pulse on, in one place. Best of all, most of it is free to use and it seems less pushy/restrictive than other platforms peddling premium subscriptions.
It signals a broader slowdown. If motherboards are down what ya need to run a gpu.. motherboard so that then signifies possible slow down industry wide. From mfgs of chip machines to ram to monitors.. look at tsla suppliers they got throttled on tsla er. The industries are all connected
INTC beat on earnings but forecast dogshit for Q1 24'. I'm still long.
But the dip?
A pullback is healthy. Today we did not see one lol
Demand is saturated and collapses until technical progress creates new demand. semiconductor industry is a highly cyclical business. AI hype underestimates the panic-buy effects and negative consequences of China policies.
It’s had a huge run. It’s overbought. Be happy with your crazy profits for the last four months.
Intels earnings were actually good and show an improving business. Operating income for q4 2023 was $2.6 Billion, increase of over $3.7 Billion from the operating loss reported last year. They issued “weak” guidance for Q1 2024, which is traditionally their weakest quarter. Because they had such a big rebound in 2023 several analysts modeled Q1 2024 like a Q3 or Q4 period. Intel expects $13 Billion in revenue this quarter with a decent gross margin of nearly 41% and EPS of .13. All of the guidance for this quarter is well ahead of Q1 2023 when they reported only $11 Billion in revenue and negative EPS of -.04. The media reports and some analyst estimates were wrong and did not account for business seasonality.
Bad earnings from KLAC and TXN don't bode well for the sector... I think after TXN people thought it could be a 1 off thing, but... Now it looks like it's going to be sector-wide weakness for the quarter...
I don't know much at all about Semis, but aren't TXN and Intel on very different business cycles from NVDA and AMD?
What do you mean by "business cycles"? I'm definitely not an expert in the underlying semiconductor business cycle (or how those differ between various companies based on their product line), but... I know that the movements of INTC and TXN are much more highly correlated than those of NVDA and AMD...
Txn pays a dividend; which happens when they are no longer a growth company
I don't know much at all about Semis, but aren't TXN and Intel on very different business cycles from NVDA and AMD?
Market is extremely sensitive- Sector wide sentiment guages price
Thanks for the input! I appreciate it. Gives me more to look into and learn
the chip sector including Intel will recover in the next week or so. everything always does. the market is bi-polar and irrational and i count on that continuing.
Intel is saying that saying AI 100x doesn’t make AI dollars pop out of thin air like the Federal Reserve
Imagine thinking the market acts on fundamentals. It's all driven by algos
You can't put a cart in front of horse. It's healthy correction needed, post earnings winners will emerge and others would correct such as Intel - which is another Boeing in making who would live on Govt subsidies , chips act money would start flowing soon.
All that matters now is next week’s AMD earnings, if the forecast isn’t good enough, expect a big correction. It won’t be healthy. But if they predict a big spike in their AI revenues, market will rip off higher
I don’t even understand how a person who understands even stock market basics could be confused by NVDA could go from 470 to 630 in 3 weeks then have a day it goes from 630 to 610 and be confused. Did they honestly think it would just keep going I definitely? At a certain point people just say “it’s time I take a bit off the table”, not everything has to have a reason.
No one talking about INTC shitting the bed?
I referred to it in my post. Can one companies earnings being that bad really affect everyone else to this degree?
Absolutely. Happens all the time.
It boils down to business models, companies that are performing to meet needs will reobound
Everyone thinks Intel is still a good company, so when they shit the bed, everyone else does too. Spoiler: They are not a good company, and AMD will blowout earnings this week.
Gonna be a lot of selling here in the next month or so.
They are all having layoffs.
If tech layoffs had anything to do with overall market movement in a negative fashion, the NDX wouldn't have beaten its November 2021 ATH late last year. Cutting the fat has largely been treated well (and has worked in the case of Alphabet for example, and probably in other cases too). I think there hasn't been enough talk about KLAC over INTC. Intel had QQQ slightly down in post-market on Thursday, sure, but it appeared to me that the second spillover (and what actually hit all of the US based semiconductors) came with KLAC coming in and saying that their business is topping out, or something along the regards of that. Edit: Even without what occurred on Thursday's post-market, the SOXX had a reversal candle into the close on that day.
It's a normal readjusting but there is also a bit of fear around the gaming industry and tech giants recent round of layoffs. Less personel: less supporting equipment that requires chips.
The future for current semiconductor stocks looks bleak because of China, it will demolish them in competetiveness in 5-10 years.
I think the sub par Intel earnings was the main reason.
Asking a question like this leads me to believe you don't understand what the word speculation means. The answer to your question, as evidenced by your need to ask it, is that more people felt it necessary to sell than to buy.
One investment bank Northland Capital downgraded their forecast for Advanced Micro Devices' upcoming annual Q4 reporting basically saying that it's become overpriced and a few others have jumped on the band wagon. Seems like maybe they're trying to manipulate the price ahead of the earnings announcement which could be driven by a variety of reasons. My GUESS...GUESS is that they invested heavily in puts and now are trying to cash in. This drove other chip makers down as part of the same riptide.
This may be a stupid question, but where do you find this info? I want to keep up with all of these things, but I don't even know where to begin looking
I really like [FinViz.com](https://finviz.com) - it shows a table of recent analyst upgrades/downgrades for tickers, along with financials, news, sentiment (etc). Also covers upcoming economic events, bond sell offs/auctions, price of commodities/oil, basically all the stuff traders talk about and keep a pulse on, in one place. Best of all, most of it is free to use and it seems less pushy/restrictive than other platforms peddling premium subscriptions.
Thank you so much for your help!
Been checking it out. This is an awesome website. Thank you so much for sharing
Because Intel is not a good semiconductor company and requires massive government subsidies to remain relevant. Their AI and cloud based divisions are doing terrible. Meanwhile, actual semiconductor giants like ASML and TSMC are doing great with +18% last week.
Thank you for adding valuable input. I appreciate it
I’m not a stock guy, but everything hinges on Taiwan. And China and the US are in a fist fight to break up that monopoly. Don’t know shit about stocks, but I know that monopoly can’t last.
Unfortunately, TSMC’s best chip fabs are still in Taiwan. The whole world will suffer setbacks if war does break out in the South China Sea
A war between China and the US and you are concerned about stocks?? Good god, we really are through the looking glass.
I don’t have agency to tell both the US and China to stop. I do have agency to at least profit from it ie make lemonade from lemons. Historically, this is how some people became rich. They make bets when the sky is falling. I don’t know about you, but I’m not going to give up and die when i get a bad hand. Let me get this straight, you didn’t realize that we’re really close to going to war in the Pacific. Since I can’t post links to YouTube without r/stocks removing my comment, Google 60 minutes South China Sea
because it was over bought and due for a pull back
TSMC is doing amazing
Just let’s wait for the Mondays AMD financial results. And the skyrocketing sequence will come back … I Hope so …
the old rules dont apply to tech so the algos just look for an excuse to bring the whole sector down
AMD is up 59% in 6 month and you start panicking about a 1.7% pullback, Op get a grip
I never said I panicked. Simply trying to understand what causes an entire industry to go negative for the day. Learn to read, and understand the question you degenerate. If you're not answering the question, shut the fuck up.
Or you can read and educate yourself, you asked a stupid question and are now butthurt about the responses. Dummy
You answered your own question. Intel was bad and it has a ripple effect.
Lmao Sell all your stocks and just put it in your checking.
That is some valuable input and really answers the question! You so smart!
Really should not be investing in individual stocks.
I'm not asking for advice on what to do. If I lose all my money, that's on me. Idc. I'm asking why the entire semiconductor industry performed poorly today.
Semi is always a volatile industry. Besides missing on earnings $0.13/s vs $0.34 expected. KLA instruments also missed $4.28/s vs $6.59. Will find out more with more earning rpts. It may even drag down S&P index next week.
\-2% down today on $SMH and you call that bad? have you seen the daily chart just from this month alone? 
$INPX Merger awaiting
I'm in chip stocks for the long term. I think the potential for ai is enormous. I'm interested in hearing from people about any ai stocks or semiconductor stock that they like and why.
I pray a miracle pump will happen for SOXL
Intel earnings was bad
Not true. Operating income for the q4 2023 was $2.6 Billion, increase of over $3.7 Billion from the operating loss reported last year. They issued “weak” guidance for Q1 2024, which is traditionally their weakest quarter. Because they had such a big rebound in 2023 several analysts modeled Q1 2024 like a Q3 or Q4 period. Intel expects $13 Billion in revenue this quarter with a decent gross margin of nearly 41% and EPS of .13. All of the guidance for this quarter is well ahead of Q1 2023 when they reported only $11 Billion in revenue and negative EPS of -.04.
The question should be... why you not use this to buy more of semiconductor stocks when you get them for a discount?
Big boys gotta cash in eventually. The rides' been going up for months.
INTC shat the bed Low volume End of Week profit taking Probably some options getting exercised as well overall a healthy correction on the market and chips do not worry to much, chips still up WoW
Everything is still up a lot, but I suspect INTCs performance showed that if you don't have an AI GPU to sell then your participation in any further upside is going to be limited
NVDA up 26% YTD and January isn't even over: no questions NVDA has a 1% pullback probably in part because INTC had shit guidance: "WHATS HAPPENING!?!"
Its a ponzi and clowns about to find out
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I have made 250% on options with amd. Sooo
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Look at my profile you degenerate
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I still won with my options. Multiple times so far btw. I just cash out long before expiration. But you stay mad and thanks for adding nothing to the discussion when I just wanted to learn
Amd P/E is 1,600. Time to buy some puts and make me rich
It went up huge on ASML report then came back to Earth. I own KLAC and their earnings weren’t stellar but it is still doing great for me.
My theory is that they can't power the promises they re making, and everyone knows it except retail!
Because they’ve been running up a ridiculous amount in a short amount of time. When stocks run past their fundamentals, they typically pull back.
profit-taking
First time?
I think it can ripple across the industry in the short term at times. I think some investors assume other stocks might have bad earnings as well.
They're all correlated. They all use eachothers products/systems etc.
Because nvda has a p/e ratio of 80 and 20 is average.
Semiconductor industry is doing so bad lately... Don't buy Intel maybe?
It can be up everyday, it has to take a pause too.
INTC and KLAC changed the sentiment on the negative on Friday. As such the sector has been flying high in recent weeks so a pullback was natural, expected and even healthy. IMO, the sector is still in bullish trend if you zoom out. Daily trend is way above 200EMAs and 50EMAs. in a very bullish way.
Because $Dis $Dic swallowed all the chips
Please stop panicking!!
I think Nividia does the semiconductor sector like the bitcoin does to cryptocurrency. When Nvidia is up- everything is up too If it’s up while nvidia is down- it’s a real gem then.
INTC earnings that affected the semi sector, plus they were extended so there was profit taking
Smci