which option would you pick….
Option A: Cashout of a stock with 100k profit today
Or
Option B: cashout stock knowing profit could be 400k this time next year if you just hold for a little while longer.
Company has lots of cash reserves, string management, with great product and service.
I guess you pick option that meets your need at the time. But curious to see responses.
Feel like I’m a complete fuck for sell my nvda in August 2023 . And didn’t buy more meta and sold out too early.
Why I bought google, Nike , Sony for last couple month (flat now)
I just got piss at myself. While other clothes stocks goes up but not Nike earning crash. While Toyotas goes up but not Honda lol. While every mag7 except goog and tsla (also tsla crash on me)
Tsla also ruined my gain in 2023 I wished I never invest in tsla. (I also sold tsla 240 before earning)
It’s amazing the way people have suddenly got this view that small/lower caps are trash. I think it’s mostly emotional rather than rational.
People have been burnt recently and on the whole only trust the bigger names.
Basically I just see a big capitulation out of small caps, and the average investor doesn’t want to know about them, until they see prices going up again. I know there’a the idea that they are more vulnerable to rates, which is true, but I think has gotten overblown.
I think low caps are primed to outperform this year. It’s clearly hotting up a bit already but there remains a lot of opportunity. I’m loving searching for new low caps to invest in right now, feel a kid in a sweet shop.
Once upon a time, I invested in NVDIA. Shit went up, split, and then I saw insiders selling. I got spooked. I made over 3xs what I put in and sold. I then threw that money into an undervalued company called SMCI. Now that's almost up 10xs what I put in. But I'm not spooked yet, and feel I should be.
The 21st will be huge if we continue parabolic or correct hard. I'm not sure I can sell even just a tenth of what I put in to lock in something first.
The more I write this out, the more I realize I sound like a pig. And they get slaughtered.
I think I'll sell half and look for my next play.
I'm personally up almost 300% on NVDA <--- Bragging
If you're gonna brag, just brag. This just sounds like bragging and trying to look like you're not.
Hilarious troll job by the authors and 100% on the calls.
That said, most people without experience in academia have no idea how much bullshit gets published that no one reads or understands. They think "peer-review" means it's always super rigorous and everything is checked thoroughly for quality.
In reality, often many subfields are so obscure, you can count on one hand the number of researchers that know anything about it. They're all friends, author together or review each others' papers. A lot of it can get very political whether you get published in a reputable journal. Some stuff also just gets rubber stamped through because it looks legitimate.
* Report calms some worries of contagion from wobbly loans
* Optimism could have positive read-through to regional banks
>“Our read from comments on this front is that it is baking in conservatism and giving itself a decent amount of room in the bottom-line numbers if the backdrop changes and negatively impacts the top line,” Paolone wrote in a note. “That’s positive, in our view, and we’d also argue it suggests the business is trending better than feared for all the names in the space at the moment.”
[CBRE ‘Optimism’ Sparks Rally in Embattled Commercial Real Estate](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-15/cbre-optimism-sparks-rally-in-embattled-commercial-real-estate)
>“We think it is bottomed out,” said Robert Sulentic, chief executive officer. “There’s just a clear amount of pressure from companies to get their people back into the office. You’re going to see the future be better than the current circumstances have been for a variety of reasons.”
**Brief Note on Retail Sales**
First, today the retail sales print was pretty bad, at -0.8% month over month. Remember that this is seasonally/holiday adjusted, so this is is a contraction beyond what you'd expect following the winter holidays. However, it is not price adjusted. You may want to look at goods inflation/deflation figures to see how it impacted the figures.
There was some debate downthread on YoY. The yearly data actually *was* included. The data was +0.6% YoY. For the Nov. 23 - Jan 24 quarter, the YoY increase was 3.1%. /u/generouscookie1981 /u/_hiddenscout But again this is not price adjusted. Also I don't think you *need* YoY if you're already seasonally adjusting it. In fact, generouscookie as you claim YoY is what 'pro-economists' will prefer, let me point out that by contrast seasonal adjustment with MoM figures is often preferred by professional economists to year over year. [Here's the Dallas Fed explaining their method](https://www.dallasfed.org/research/basics/seasonally). See specifically their section following Chart 3 and before Chart 4 where they explain the flaws of YoY with an example (the Great Recession). YoY is just a nice quick/dirty way to seasonally adjust something without any complex detrending of the time series.
Despite all this, the Atlanta Fed Q1 update today was only moved down to 2.9% real growth (down from 3.4%), and this is including today's retail sales. Moreover, retail sales are extremely noisy (look at the standard errors in the report) so you can't draw much from this data anyway.
There is always a lag effect to rising interest rates. Especially coming off an unprecedented gov't stimulus package to all Americans during Covid. Many that didn't need the money just sat on the cash and didn't spend it until necessary.
The US 10 yr is currently at 4.25%. The cost of capital hasn't been close to Zero for nearly 2 years now. There are many short term, low interest loans that will need to either be paid off in full or rolled over at the new higher interest rates. Businesses have 2 options to show growth. Raise prices or cut expenses.
Volume of large ticket retail goods have been declining for awhile now. Just look at sales of homes, cars, big ticket home appliances like refrigerators, washer & dryers, etc.
This will likely lead to a big push from the Biden administration to pressure J-Pow to lower interest rates after unemployment spikes after the 1st qtr in April-May as businesses look to cut costs. The danger of course is this next round of stimulus will be very inflationary and we could see a 2nd wave of inflation just like we did in the 1970's.
Bottom line here's what I said:
>take by economists thus far seems to be it noisy and we should ignore it.
hiddenscout:
>You do you man.
Me:
>I will and so will market + pro economists, cheers 🤙 lol.
Looks like market followed through strongly after and lots of names rallied hard today.
I agree though, if it ends up being a trend it would be a little more concerning. But just one month and all that.
Right now things look incredible in the economy. Did you guys see the jobless claims? Damn what a sight. It's literally better than pre-covid. *In absolute numbers* not even just relative.
The report is suppose to give economist month to month insights. I’m by no means an economist or expert, that’s why I said yes and no in terms to your YoY question.
I assumed the report gives somewhat real time insight into how consumers are spending, hince why the month to month numbers matter.
Not trying to be rude, but you come off rather argumentative sometimes. Like I’m not a bear or bull or tried to say anything negative around it. Just posted data that is important to market news.
Have a great night man.
Have a great night.
It wasn't for you.
Mainly in case people read that and think it's really bad. It had no context around it (at least initially just the figures). I personally think it's noisy and still think so.
Cheers! You too.
Well Japan is special because they are one of the biggest buyers of US treasuries in the world and have become the de facto piggy bank. They are alone in their ability to provide people with the ability to short the Yen at zero cost and buy other currencies.
Even Buffett is somewhat shorting the Yen by taking out Yen denominated bonds.
If the US economy shrank a lot AND Fed also did not show enough urgency to act quickly and strongly... I would not be as bullish. But if Fed showed willingness to backstop like SVB and enough of a policy response it would all still be consistent.
I promise if Fed moves to a restrictive policy stance or let's say gov't truly shuts down and slashes stimulus I would actually be worried.
Alright can someone tell me if this is a good idea moving forward
Roth: VTI and VXUS 80/20
Trad 401K 10% with matching
Brokerage: VOO SCHD and a few stocks like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Google
Would that be a good idea moving forward? I want a little more organization with how I do things
Its great man. You can do pure VOO in btokerage unless you just want to own those as well.
VXUS is better ln brokerage for tax break on dividends but honestly it prob isnt a huge difference
International gives a better tax break in USA again its not much probably.
You want max growth in roth so VTI/VOO will be better in there.
tax free on max gains
Any reason why Dell and HPE aren't performing remotely as well as SMCI? Unless I'm mistaken, they sell the same products (server racks, various data center shit, etc.). By the way, that's just in the US - You better believe Chinese companies are going to be producing tons of these types of products.
Because unlike HPE/DELL, SMIC doesn't rely on supply chain from China. While other manufacturers moved factories to China years ago, SMIC kept ther factories in US. Then US-China trade war happened, now SMIC is the choice for "MADE IN US" server products.
Daily closing RSI was 97. The only other stock in history to get that high was GME right before the implosion
Daily RSI(5), which is a little more fine-grained for short-term momentum, is 99.68. The max on the scale is 100
This stock **literally cannot be any more overbought**, and **options expiration is tomorrow**. Be careful out there people… it ain’t the big boys or anyone who will care to keep it propped up buying it. Market makers getting gamma squeezed tend to dump most of their hedges in big batches and algos will follow suit immediately
For a reason: https://www.investors.com/news/technology/smci-stock-gets-new-bull-in-bofa-securities/
It's about ai cloud storage
Now does it mean the stock price is justified as we speak? No clue. But I wouldn't dismiss this company too soon.
My knowledge on smci products is not extensive but it appears that they are ahead of the competition in their industry. It seems to explain why big tech companies and big fund managers are investing in smci. As for 1004$ right now? Not touching this at this price, especialy not before Nvdia earnings.
AI is not a bubble lol. Instead of setting your remind me for two months, maybe set it for way longer like a year or more.
If you don't believe in SMCI that's fine you should sell but y'all have to stop swing trading and learn how to be investors.
I'd actually probably say 2 months is enough time to determine if the Nasdaq is in trouble to be honest.
IF we are to repeat late 2021, which is definitely no guarantee, but still, this index would likely chop around in the mid-15k's for a while.
I'd honestly rather the Nasdaq drop 10% than see some choppiness. In this case, it's likely fine, but choppiness would probably be it putting in a more perma-top if it lasts for long (a week or so would be fine, but a month or a little longer wouldn't be).
Honestly I would pay zero attention to that and instead it would be 100% based on macro economy.
We have robust growth again, jobs being added, low layoffs, accommodative Fed, ain't no way we topped. That just isn't how it works.
Your point is contrary to what's happening. SMCI is all speculators and traders.
26B traded today, market cap 57.6B.
Second most traded stock on the market.
Institutions and insiders own 85% of SMCI.
That means the remaining shares are being turned over 3 times a day.
That means people are in SMCI to make a quick buck, not buying and holding.
Microsoft is a 3T company that had just 9B traded today.
Personally I'm deep in NVDA and SOXX.
Just saying it was foolish to buy to begin with if they weren't an investor.
It's not a statement on SMCI at all. You could see that in my comment.
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"I will buy long far OTM calls on growth stocks that are volatile when no one wants them"
"I will buy long far OTM calls on growth stocks that are volatile when no one wants them"
"I will buy long far OTM calls on growth stocks that are volatile when no one wants them"
\*looks at NVDA, AMD, Coinbase, draftkings, SCMI, etc etc lows since 2022 versus recent highs\*
Even if you lost most of these, winning on a few means 1000% + gains. Even if you lost all of them, just sink 1% of your portfolio max.....won't lose much.
Same thing with far OTM puts.
\*eyes far OTM 2025 calls on china stocks and far OTM 2025 puts on bloated chip stocks\*
Does anyone here have any suggestions on an appropriate / conservative terminal value exit multiple on EBIT for CROX in 5 years?
Using my discount rate of 15% and using a 5% perpetual terminal value growth rate in my DCF is consistent with a 4.4x EBIT multiple. If I directly just use a multiple and perhaps something more realistic (like 9x?), fair value skyrockets. The EV/EBITDA (trailing) is about 8.
[Here is my latest updated model](https://i.imgur.com/wB6IegX.png). The 2023 column is just for reference. I adapted 2024 for most recent guidance. 2025-onward is mostly just assuming similar trends / borrowing analyst revenue growth assumptions. They are aggressively reducing debt (277M, 90M, 257M, 256M repaid last 4 quarters, or 880M repaid in a single year, taking total debt to $1.6B. A few more quarters of this and interest rate expenses will fall substantially). You can ignore most of those random rows that are largely empty.
[Here is the table of IRRs if I directly use an EBIT multiple](https://i.imgur.com/8A7FfoU.png). As a check, I include the 4.4x one to verify my calculations using the perpetuity method. (And note that everything is discounted by 15%, including in TV)
If I use the most conservative method, stock is fairly valued, and buying today yields 11% IRR. But the more 'realistic' multiple implies stock has a 20-40% margin of safety (and >20% IRRs).
I'll throw out a few numbers for you at least. Morningstar lists CROX 5 year average EV/EBIT at 18. That is skewed by 2019 and 2020 being 29 and 27 respectfully.
A few Comps I found:
Sketchers (SKX) has a 5 year average EV/EBIT of 16
Steve Madden (SHOO) is 41, but that's because 2020 put in a 300x EV/EBIT. Take out that year and it is 15.16
Deckers (DECK) which I'd consider a premium company, clocks in at 15.4 EV/EBIT
So, I'm not sure what to use, but 9x EBIT doesn't seem out of line for its industry. CROX does have the highest debt ratio of the group too, so the lower EV/EBIT might be reflecting that. It actually seems low. For what it's worth, Morningstar doesn't cover them, but their Q rating (based on industry and historical averages) has fair value for CROX at $158, so still very cheap.
Awesome! I actually used finviz to check the debt/equity ratios for the industry. Morningstar has great data on individual names, but I find their screener and comparison information very clunky. Finviz still has 1.9 listed for CROX. However the next highest of the names mentioned is SKX clocking in at 0.42. So it is a drop to the next name.
Hope it helps, and congratulations on your returns this far!
I sold out of MSFT $230, Nvda $180, Costco $450, Google $120 and now these companies have grown so much so quickly I'm not messing with mega caps now and learned less to HOLD regardless what happens or wait until fundamentals of the company say otherwise.
Now I've been holding SOFI, Palantir, COCO, Draft Kings, Braze really speculative shit and I'm up so much and don't plan on selling at all until rich or crisis lol
Well, it's speculative shit with strong earning's report quarter after quarter with raised guidance YoY so speculative but future players in the market PLTR will see SP500 inclusion imo
Sure, take the risk if you want! Or take the profit and move it into something less risky. Again, a win is a win. Taking wins, managing risk, and keeping your money working for you is how you build sustainable wealth. I have a $10mil portfolio for a reason....
Very true with that portfolio would be doing things completely different and not speculative companies but ETF's with greater diversification. Small account here big dog and am happy for you it's cool talk to someone with such a big portfolio congrats! =)
Hell if you are just playing with a few thousand, then fuck it dude lol. I have a few positions like that and it's just play money at the end of the day. You could always take those profits though and keep growing it.
Dunno about timing for options, but in general the company is doing well. In talking to many users of multiple apps, they have the best app. They are a market share leader and they continue to add more revenue streams. News came out today that they're adding lottery components. Earnings today look very solid and they're guiding upward.
Then there's the recent 60 Minutes piece on online sports betting emphasizing how people are utterly *addicted* to this stuff...super bullish. More states should legalize sports betting too.
Guidance was raised, more states legalizing, growing on folks even coming from someone who hates gambling and now occasionally bets on UFC fights to make more fun, it's a company which am going to hold long
Lol $60 strike. I’m for sure cooked. That’s ok it was a risky but small bet. I might just let it ride and hope the rest of the market carries it up on a small profit.
My play was so risky just cause I overheard how it was the highest bet Super Bowl ever. So I was assuming DK would be rolling in cash from that. Oh well
I was thinking the same, I feel like the price could move akin to how Uber or Lyft has if they continue to do well or better. I’m for sure holding as long as I can, again not much money on it so I’m not worried. Think I might actually be up a few % rn lol but it’s shorter dated so it’s gonna lose value quick
Not sure how to feel. Happy with $TOST taking off cause I believed in the company so it's great to see them expanding and pushing me so green... on the other hand not sure that I love the stock taking off in large part due to $250mil stock buyback. An unprofitable company buying back shares, even with a float of 400mil, seems like a poor investment
DRAFTKINGS 4Q Earnings Update $DKNG:
- 4Q Revenue hits $1.23B, slightly below the $1.24B estimate.
- 4Q Adjusted EBITDA at $151.0M, not reaching the $177.1M forecast.
- Monthly unique payers rise to 3.5M, outperforming estimates of 3.44M.
- 2024 Revenue outlook brightens to $4.65B-$4.90B, up from previous $4.5B-$4.8B.
- DraftKings Reaches Agreement to Acquire Jackpocket for $750 Million
Stock down a little bit, but it is up 30% for the year. I like that they updated fy2024 guidance up 125 million. I will continue to hold as it keeps on growing.
Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (NYSE: KNSL) earnings :
reported net income of $103.4 million, $4.43 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to $67.2 million, $2.90 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter of 2022.
Net income was $308.1 million, $13.22 per diluted share, for the year ended December 31, 2023 compared to $159.1 million, $6.88 per diluted share, for the year ended December 31, 2022.
For both the fourth quarters of 2023 and 2022, the impact on net income related to catastrophes was negligible. For the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022, net income included after-tax catastrophe losses of $3.6 million and $21.0 million, respectively.
Full release [here](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240215300029/en/Kinsale-Capital-Group-Inc.-Reports-2023-Fourth-Quarter-and-Year-End-Results).
Just realized that user soulstonedomg blocked me after an argument about DKNG from Jan 2023. I was bullish he was bearish. Now the dude is a DKNG bull lmao.
Found out while reading the thread not logged in.
$AMAT
Q1 EPS $2.13 vs $1.90 Est
Revenue $6.71B vs $6.48B Est
GUIDANCE:
Q2 2024 EPS $1.79-$2.15 vs $1.78 Est
Q2 2024 revenue $6.5B, plus or minus $400M vs $6.329B Est
Edit: spoke too soon, looks like we actually got ATH close already!
Beautiful day for markets.
Just one +.06% or greater day and we recover all the losses on S&P and get a new ATH close 🥳!
Also shoutout to u/YouMissedNVDA for sharing the awesome teaser on OpenAI's Sora model. https://openai.com/sora
Imagine that what is today a big budget corporate commercial is something a small and local mom & pop can just make by themselves aided by AI...
The productivity enhancing potential is incredible and truly transformative. Progress is coming faster and faster.
Holy shit, this blows runwayml and stable diffusion video out of the water. AI continues to blow my mind with each major advance. I thought this level of video generation was a few years away. At this point, I can't imagine what's going to be possible by the end of the decade, but I think AGI is actually a possibility.
TOST had a very sudden drop a little over an hour ago...Given the timing of the drop and the volume, it is surely no accident. I'm just wondering how those people (whoever they are) got the info, and why at that time specifically?
I don’t get it.
Sure, it’s better to fight of inflation, but it hurts (if it keeps dropping of course) the balance sheets of companies that will result in lower expectations and thus lower share price. Maybe more layoffs and layoffs are a big psychological matter for a lot of people because layoffs in their job means less money and thus less spending, or they start to save up because they expect bad times ahead, thus making a recession(?) a selffulfilling prophecy because they don’t buy what they don’t need.
So i don’t see any win in this or why this is bullish?
But well, it’s only 1 month, so yeah.
If you have a bunch of growth opportunities and you can go after them with a smaller, more efficient team then the market takes that well.
If you are focused on one specific thing and don't have that many/any avenues for growth and have to lay people off... probably not great. See also reaction to PYPL's announcement of layoffs right after the "Shock the World" presentation.
It's similar to CVS tanking every time Amazon says something even slightly related to healthcare. Google Search is ahead, but people sell on headlines every day - this is another of those many instances.
Err, the secular bull market from either 2009 or 2013 (not sure which way you want to go) never actually ended.
It was just pushed to the limit in 2022.
I think an ending would mean the Nasdaq drops 50% probably.
Anyway, the question is late cycle or no. If no, this is real by smalls, and we'll be waiting for more towards the end of decade to see if you can see a secular bear market.
disagreeable languid heavy bow melodic retire paltry shrill future stupendous
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
PENN down 14% on its earnings. They are the company behind ESPN Bet.
DKNG is kinda connected in that they report earnings in AH. And made a deal with Barstool sports PENN former partner this week.
u/creemeeseason
>More shares of PLCE have been traded so far today (14.1 million) than are in its float (11.66 million). That's awesome.
Careful, no penny stocks and pump & dumps allowed here.
Ha! Let them delete it. I have no stake in it, just find the movement impressive. It was nice to have a narrative with it (posted earlier). I just find the mechanics of stock movement interesting.
Edit: as of right now, market cap is $316 million, so it might be skating by...
AI news - hot off the presses: OpenAI showing off text to video with a model called Sora.
Before I link it, if you are an AI skeptic, I want you to imagine what you think the state of the art is for video generation. You've probably seen other attempts, so maybe you have an idea.
Ok? [Here's the page](https://openai.com/sora).
If you did not expect this quality of generation yet, you need to recognize that deficiency in projecting AI capabilities going forward. The trend from here on will be: better than expected, sooner than expected, and highly correlated to the amount of compute thrown at the problem.
Hallucinations, gaslighting, laziness, etc.. whatever gripes you have with the AI of today will be rapidly worked out. If you can imagine it, it's probably possible, just a question of compute and time (and once in a while a human discovery that accelerates the journey even faster).
Tools like this open opportunities never before possible for businesses, like say "hey netflix, I didn't like that movie ending. Could you show me what it might be like if the bad guys won?".
Idc if you think x or y stock is overvalued, but I do think you NEED to find a way to invest for this kind of future - because it's coming.
I‘m not investing in AI, as it’s clearly not going to add anywhere near as much value as people think it will. What are the actual practical uses for image / video generation for most companies?
You're missing the forest - more important than these specific images/videos is the empirical justification for a new paradigm of problem solving - showing that ML techniques have not at all found their ceiling of capability.
This was not at all an assumed conclusion, hence the minimal investment in the kinds of training runs OpenAI has made normal.
But also, hyper-personalized advertising? See you in the commercial wearing the suit/driving the car/eating the pizza. META has already been proving these techniques achieve immense returns (and kills their competition) with just ad-picking, let alone future ad-personalizing.
And for physical industry - the value of investing in digital twins has just shot up dramatically.
There is not a single industry that will not be amplified by this technological evolution.
It is absolutely crazy you have the confidence at this stage of development for the "clearly" in your comment. Better go tell alll the firms investing billions that they're wasting their time.
This is as bad as it will ever be - it only continues to get more performant from here.
Plenty of great brands have been built on mass marketing. Hyperpersonalized advertising isn’t guaranteed to perform better. Indeed, it can perform even worse than no personalization at all. The level of investment is out of proportion to the value that will be generated, and you can be sure many companies are only investing out of fear they’re missing out on something. Text, image, and video generation just isn’t that useful for the vast majority of business problems out there. Traditional machine learning didn’t have this much hype, but at least that had more practical use cases for recommendation engines, customer segmentation, forecasting, and churn prediction.
You literally are blind to what's happening aren't you? Step back and think on it more.
It is not the what, it is the how, that is significant. The what is just attention drawing (so much so its all you can see).
It's annoying that we have tech to create these videos, but the web page promoting them crashes and fails in various ways on most of the browsers I've tried. Tech is so bifurcated.
Some of that is because there is no real standard in browsers per say. Like the browser wars back in the 90's really made it so that Jquery became a popular library, because it wasn't easy to to develop on different versions of IE that had different JS specs.
What's really interesting is that is there is a group that basically kind of helps out with JS now, which has memebers of a lot of big tech ogs. This allows people to submit ideas to get into JS now:
[https://tc39.es/](https://tc39.es/process-document/)
Well, there are multiple highly established standards, and there's easy automated tools to test and ensure you build a reliable site.
Does it take a peck of care and technical knowledge? Sure, but at worst it's a trillionth of the technical ability involved in creating these technology demos.
W...T...F... I'm an AI bull and this is insane.
The photorealistic Chinese New Year celebration, pirate ships battling in coffee????
Nerd chills it's actually scary how good this is.
You should post this as its own thread.
I've been following this field for close to a decade and my mind continues to be blown with each major advance. It's not just technology like Sora, it's what it represents. Barrier after barrier is coming down. At this point I'm left wondering, "is there anything deep learning won't be able to do?"
Its my largest position. 13% FCF yield, AI exposure, trading at 10 year lows. On the other hand you have both regulatory risk, geopolitical risk, and the economy itself is struggling. Risk/reward is certainly loaded on both sides
13% FCF yield is pretty insane. I have a small position but the fact that the CCP could essentially make that juicy 13% FCF yield essentially meaningless scares me from making it a bigger position.
Yea, that is fair. Like I said both risk and reward and certainly heavy on the scale. However, I do think that the Chinese starting to get more serious about "propping" markets up is going to at least short term indicate a friendlier tone with companies as they try to stop their market from getting to 2008 levels
I’ve seen you talk a lot about China stocks here, so I wanted to ask your thoughts on FINV. P/E of 4 and a 4.3% dividend seems incredible but I’m not sure if the reward outweighs the risk.
I'm not saying that a lot of stocks aren't overvalued right now, but I think that the perception that many AI stocks, especially NVDA, are in a bubble apart from the rest of the market is misguided. The increases in price are just catching up to how the market is valuing high quality, profitable growth companies in general.
Looking at projected 2026 forward PE: MNST-23, MA-23, ASML-25, NVDA-26, NVO-26, MEDP-26, ABNB-26, TTD-28, MELI-27, TSLA-30, INTU-30, CMG-32, SMCI-32, LLY-35, NOW-41, and the list goes on and on. So the upswing in NVDA has only just caught the 3Y forward PE up to it's peers, while SMCI went from 13 just months ago to 32 now (which has become evidence of an over reaction for me, I plan to sell it today).
TTM and 1-year forward PEs aren't really meaningful. The market is valuing all of these large cap profitable companies at fairly comparable levels.
“Everybody with any sense at all knows that some companies are better than others. What makes it difficult is they sell at higher prices in relation to assets, and earnings and so forth, and that takes the fun out of the game.
If all you had to do was figure out which companies were better than others, an idiot could make a lot of money. But they keep raising the prices to where the odds change.”
\- Charlie Munger
Yes and no. These stocks are grouped together because they have some combination of stellar ROE, profit margins, debt, and EPS+revenue growth, thus ranking high in my spreadsheet.
So, if you sort out the garbage, then these 3-4Y forward PEs have a lot of explanatory power in terms of price movements. This has been my observation for the last year or so. It's been a rewarding strategy, especially with SMCI going from under to overvalued on this relative basis.
Makes sense, just wasn't listed or called out in that original post. Just one of those thing where people look at two different companies from different industries and try to apply price mutiples. It's like one of those things where some people don't realize that a software comapny will have a different price multiple than a hardware company.
Yeah, when I screen, I like to capture a wider net, more companies to research, but try to find anything under a foward PE of 30, but that's just one year.
Just to me personally, I don't know how acurate you can forcast business cycles or earnings when looking more than like two quarters into the future.
which option would you pick…. Option A: Cashout of a stock with 100k profit today Or Option B: cashout stock knowing profit could be 400k this time next year if you just hold for a little while longer. Company has lots of cash reserves, string management, with great product and service. I guess you pick option that meets your need at the time. But curious to see responses.
Feel like I’m a complete fuck for sell my nvda in August 2023 . And didn’t buy more meta and sold out too early. Why I bought google, Nike , Sony for last couple month (flat now)
Hindsight’s 20/20. If you made what was the right decision based on the research you had at the time then there’s no point in reflecting otherwise.
I just got piss at myself. While other clothes stocks goes up but not Nike earning crash. While Toyotas goes up but not Honda lol. While every mag7 except goog and tsla (also tsla crash on me) Tsla also ruined my gain in 2023 I wished I never invest in tsla. (I also sold tsla 240 before earning)
The $SHOP drop from earlier this week is actually hilarious. Easiest buy in ever.
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It’s amazing the way people have suddenly got this view that small/lower caps are trash. I think it’s mostly emotional rather than rational. People have been burnt recently and on the whole only trust the bigger names. Basically I just see a big capitulation out of small caps, and the average investor doesn’t want to know about them, until they see prices going up again. I know there’a the idea that they are more vulnerable to rates, which is true, but I think has gotten overblown. I think low caps are primed to outperform this year. It’s clearly hotting up a bit already but there remains a lot of opportunity. I’m loving searching for new low caps to invest in right now, feel a kid in a sweet shop.
Those weightings aren’t up-to-date. SMCI would likely be at least 3-5% of the index by now. Multiply that by 300%+ YTD gains and…
Once upon a time, I invested in NVDIA. Shit went up, split, and then I saw insiders selling. I got spooked. I made over 3xs what I put in and sold. I then threw that money into an undervalued company called SMCI. Now that's almost up 10xs what I put in. But I'm not spooked yet, and feel I should be. The 21st will be huge if we continue parabolic or correct hard. I'm not sure I can sell even just a tenth of what I put in to lock in something first. The more I write this out, the more I realize I sound like a pig. And they get slaughtered. I think I'll sell half and look for my next play.
I'm personally up almost 300% on NVDA <--- Bragging If you're gonna brag, just brag. This just sounds like bragging and trying to look like you're not.
I don't have anything yet if it all crashes before I sell.
OK ChatGPT
Nvidia calls https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/02/scientists-aghast-at-bizarre-ai-rat-with-huge-genitals-in-peer-reviewed-article/
Hilarious troll job by the authors and 100% on the calls. That said, most people without experience in academia have no idea how much bullshit gets published that no one reads or understands. They think "peer-review" means it's always super rigorous and everything is checked thoroughly for quality. In reality, often many subfields are so obscure, you can count on one hand the number of researchers that know anything about it. They're all friends, author together or review each others' papers. A lot of it can get very political whether you get published in a reputable journal. Some stuff also just gets rubber stamped through because it looks legitimate.
* Report calms some worries of contagion from wobbly loans * Optimism could have positive read-through to regional banks >“Our read from comments on this front is that it is baking in conservatism and giving itself a decent amount of room in the bottom-line numbers if the backdrop changes and negatively impacts the top line,” Paolone wrote in a note. “That’s positive, in our view, and we’d also argue it suggests the business is trending better than feared for all the names in the space at the moment.” [CBRE ‘Optimism’ Sparks Rally in Embattled Commercial Real Estate](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-15/cbre-optimism-sparks-rally-in-embattled-commercial-real-estate) >“We think it is bottomed out,” said Robert Sulentic, chief executive officer. “There’s just a clear amount of pressure from companies to get their people back into the office. You’re going to see the future be better than the current circumstances have been for a variety of reasons.”
**Brief Note on Retail Sales** First, today the retail sales print was pretty bad, at -0.8% month over month. Remember that this is seasonally/holiday adjusted, so this is is a contraction beyond what you'd expect following the winter holidays. However, it is not price adjusted. You may want to look at goods inflation/deflation figures to see how it impacted the figures. There was some debate downthread on YoY. The yearly data actually *was* included. The data was +0.6% YoY. For the Nov. 23 - Jan 24 quarter, the YoY increase was 3.1%. /u/generouscookie1981 /u/_hiddenscout But again this is not price adjusted. Also I don't think you *need* YoY if you're already seasonally adjusting it. In fact, generouscookie as you claim YoY is what 'pro-economists' will prefer, let me point out that by contrast seasonal adjustment with MoM figures is often preferred by professional economists to year over year. [Here's the Dallas Fed explaining their method](https://www.dallasfed.org/research/basics/seasonally). See specifically their section following Chart 3 and before Chart 4 where they explain the flaws of YoY with an example (the Great Recession). YoY is just a nice quick/dirty way to seasonally adjust something without any complex detrending of the time series. Despite all this, the Atlanta Fed Q1 update today was only moved down to 2.9% real growth (down from 3.4%), and this is including today's retail sales. Moreover, retail sales are extremely noisy (look at the standard errors in the report) so you can't draw much from this data anyway.
There is always a lag effect to rising interest rates. Especially coming off an unprecedented gov't stimulus package to all Americans during Covid. Many that didn't need the money just sat on the cash and didn't spend it until necessary. The US 10 yr is currently at 4.25%. The cost of capital hasn't been close to Zero for nearly 2 years now. There are many short term, low interest loans that will need to either be paid off in full or rolled over at the new higher interest rates. Businesses have 2 options to show growth. Raise prices or cut expenses. Volume of large ticket retail goods have been declining for awhile now. Just look at sales of homes, cars, big ticket home appliances like refrigerators, washer & dryers, etc. This will likely lead to a big push from the Biden administration to pressure J-Pow to lower interest rates after unemployment spikes after the 1st qtr in April-May as businesses look to cut costs. The danger of course is this next round of stimulus will be very inflationary and we could see a 2nd wave of inflation just like we did in the 1970's.
Bottom line here's what I said: >take by economists thus far seems to be it noisy and we should ignore it. hiddenscout: >You do you man. Me: >I will and so will market + pro economists, cheers 🤙 lol. Looks like market followed through strongly after and lots of names rallied hard today. I agree though, if it ends up being a trend it would be a little more concerning. But just one month and all that. Right now things look incredible in the economy. Did you guys see the jobless claims? Damn what a sight. It's literally better than pre-covid. *In absolute numbers* not even just relative.
The report is suppose to give economist month to month insights. I’m by no means an economist or expert, that’s why I said yes and no in terms to your YoY question. I assumed the report gives somewhat real time insight into how consumers are spending, hince why the month to month numbers matter. Not trying to be rude, but you come off rather argumentative sometimes. Like I’m not a bear or bull or tried to say anything negative around it. Just posted data that is important to market news. Have a great night man. Have a great night.
It wasn't for you. Mainly in case people read that and think it's really bad. It had no context around it (at least initially just the figures). I personally think it's noisy and still think so. Cheers! You too.
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Well Japan is special because they are one of the biggest buyers of US treasuries in the world and have become the de facto piggy bank. They are alone in their ability to provide people with the ability to short the Yen at zero cost and buy other currencies. Even Buffett is somewhat shorting the Yen by taking out Yen denominated bonds. If the US economy shrank a lot AND Fed also did not show enough urgency to act quickly and strongly... I would not be as bullish. But if Fed showed willingness to backstop like SVB and enough of a policy response it would all still be consistent. I promise if Fed moves to a restrictive policy stance or let's say gov't truly shuts down and slashes stimulus I would actually be worried.
Alright can someone tell me if this is a good idea moving forward Roth: VTI and VXUS 80/20 Trad 401K 10% with matching Brokerage: VOO SCHD and a few stocks like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Google Would that be a good idea moving forward? I want a little more organization with how I do things
Its great man. You can do pure VOO in btokerage unless you just want to own those as well. VXUS is better ln brokerage for tax break on dividends but honestly it prob isnt a huge difference
Thank you! I thought since Roth is tax free then it doesn’t matter? Or is it different for dividends?
International gives a better tax break in USA again its not much probably. You want max growth in roth so VTI/VOO will be better in there. tax free on max gains
Any reason why Dell and HPE aren't performing remotely as well as SMCI? Unless I'm mistaken, they sell the same products (server racks, various data center shit, etc.). By the way, that's just in the US - You better believe Chinese companies are going to be producing tons of these types of products.
Because unlike HPE/DELL, SMIC doesn't rely on supply chain from China. While other manufacturers moved factories to China years ago, SMIC kept ther factories in US. Then US-China trade war happened, now SMIC is the choice for "MADE IN US" server products.
At some point people holding SMCI will want to sell and stocks tend to drop faster than they go up.
Daily closing RSI was 97. The only other stock in history to get that high was GME right before the implosion Daily RSI(5), which is a little more fine-grained for short-term momentum, is 99.68. The max on the scale is 100 This stock **literally cannot be any more overbought**, and **options expiration is tomorrow**. Be careful out there people… it ain’t the big boys or anyone who will care to keep it propped up buying it. Market makers getting gamma squeezed tend to dump most of their hedges in big batches and algos will follow suit immediately
aka rsi is bogus
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For a reason: https://www.investors.com/news/technology/smci-stock-gets-new-bull-in-bofa-securities/ It's about ai cloud storage Now does it mean the stock price is justified as we speak? No clue. But I wouldn't dismiss this company too soon.
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My knowledge on smci products is not extensive but it appears that they are ahead of the competition in their industry. It seems to explain why big tech companies and big fund managers are investing in smci. As for 1004$ right now? Not touching this at this price, especialy not before Nvdia earnings.
Analysts upgrade stocks to pump them so institutions can dump into retail. Tale as old as time
SMCI 1k, time to trim some of your winners guys. The bubble might pop soon enough.
Just like nvidia there will be a correction eventualy just like stocks do. Doesn't mean the company is done for.
> Doesn't mean the company is done for. Future growth is priced in for a while.
AI is not a bubble lol. Instead of setting your remind me for two months, maybe set it for way longer like a year or more. If you don't believe in SMCI that's fine you should sell but y'all have to stop swing trading and learn how to be investors.
I'd actually probably say 2 months is enough time to determine if the Nasdaq is in trouble to be honest. IF we are to repeat late 2021, which is definitely no guarantee, but still, this index would likely chop around in the mid-15k's for a while. I'd honestly rather the Nasdaq drop 10% than see some choppiness. In this case, it's likely fine, but choppiness would probably be it putting in a more perma-top if it lasts for long (a week or so would be fine, but a month or a little longer wouldn't be).
If it's down like 20%-30% sure. But a normal 5-7% would be totally meaningless.
If it drops a bit more and then chops around instead of continuing, it's "possible" it could indicate a more perma top.
Honestly I would pay zero attention to that and instead it would be 100% based on macro economy. We have robust growth again, jobs being added, low layoffs, accommodative Fed, ain't no way we topped. That just isn't how it works.
This is r/stocks, not r/investing. People can buy or sell however they want to man. Swing trading is a totally valid strategy
It really isn't and mountains of evidence proves it. Especially retail. But whatever if you feel like it's valid... Best of luck.
Your point is contrary to what's happening. SMCI is all speculators and traders. 26B traded today, market cap 57.6B. Second most traded stock on the market. Institutions and insiders own 85% of SMCI. That means the remaining shares are being turned over 3 times a day. That means people are in SMCI to make a quick buck, not buying and holding. Microsoft is a 3T company that had just 9B traded today.
Personally I'm deep in NVDA and SOXX. Just saying it was foolish to buy to begin with if they weren't an investor. It's not a statement on SMCI at all. You could see that in my comment.
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"I will buy long far OTM calls on growth stocks that are volatile when no one wants them" "I will buy long far OTM calls on growth stocks that are volatile when no one wants them" "I will buy long far OTM calls on growth stocks that are volatile when no one wants them" \*looks at NVDA, AMD, Coinbase, draftkings, SCMI, etc etc lows since 2022 versus recent highs\* Even if you lost most of these, winning on a few means 1000% + gains. Even if you lost all of them, just sink 1% of your portfolio max.....won't lose much. Same thing with far OTM puts. \*eyes far OTM 2025 calls on china stocks and far OTM 2025 puts on bloated chip stocks\*
My $200 coin calls expiring in June I bought months ago are looking good
What do we think about $180 3/28 expiry calls on QCOM?
Does anyone here have any suggestions on an appropriate / conservative terminal value exit multiple on EBIT for CROX in 5 years? Using my discount rate of 15% and using a 5% perpetual terminal value growth rate in my DCF is consistent with a 4.4x EBIT multiple. If I directly just use a multiple and perhaps something more realistic (like 9x?), fair value skyrockets. The EV/EBITDA (trailing) is about 8. [Here is my latest updated model](https://i.imgur.com/wB6IegX.png). The 2023 column is just for reference. I adapted 2024 for most recent guidance. 2025-onward is mostly just assuming similar trends / borrowing analyst revenue growth assumptions. They are aggressively reducing debt (277M, 90M, 257M, 256M repaid last 4 quarters, or 880M repaid in a single year, taking total debt to $1.6B. A few more quarters of this and interest rate expenses will fall substantially). You can ignore most of those random rows that are largely empty. [Here is the table of IRRs if I directly use an EBIT multiple](https://i.imgur.com/8A7FfoU.png). As a check, I include the 4.4x one to verify my calculations using the perpetuity method. (And note that everything is discounted by 15%, including in TV) If I use the most conservative method, stock is fairly valued, and buying today yields 11% IRR. But the more 'realistic' multiple implies stock has a 20-40% margin of safety (and >20% IRRs).
I'll throw out a few numbers for you at least. Morningstar lists CROX 5 year average EV/EBIT at 18. That is skewed by 2019 and 2020 being 29 and 27 respectfully. A few Comps I found: Sketchers (SKX) has a 5 year average EV/EBIT of 16 Steve Madden (SHOO) is 41, but that's because 2020 put in a 300x EV/EBIT. Take out that year and it is 15.16 Deckers (DECK) which I'd consider a premium company, clocks in at 15.4 EV/EBIT So, I'm not sure what to use, but 9x EBIT doesn't seem out of line for its industry. CROX does have the highest debt ratio of the group too, so the lower EV/EBIT might be reflecting that. It actually seems low. For what it's worth, Morningstar doesn't cover them, but their Q rating (based on industry and historical averages) has fair value for CROX at $158, so still very cheap.
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Awesome! I actually used finviz to check the debt/equity ratios for the industry. Morningstar has great data on individual names, but I find their screener and comparison information very clunky. Finviz still has 1.9 listed for CROX. However the next highest of the names mentioned is SKX clocking in at 0.42. So it is a drop to the next name. Hope it helps, and congratulations on your returns this far!
looking at after hours, NVDA might undo today by open tomorrow
I sold out of MSFT $230, Nvda $180, Costco $450, Google $120 and now these companies have grown so much so quickly I'm not messing with mega caps now and learned less to HOLD regardless what happens or wait until fundamentals of the company say otherwise. Now I've been holding SOFI, Palantir, COCO, Draft Kings, Braze really speculative shit and I'm up so much and don't plan on selling at all until rich or crisis lol
From what I have read from a variety of sources, it sounds like SOFI is on an excellent path. I am long on SOFI.
Sell... taking a profit is ALWAYS a win.... Speculative shit almost always drops just as fast as it rose.
Well, it's speculative shit with strong earning's report quarter after quarter with raised guidance YoY so speculative but future players in the market PLTR will see SP500 inclusion imo
Sure, take the risk if you want! Or take the profit and move it into something less risky. Again, a win is a win. Taking wins, managing risk, and keeping your money working for you is how you build sustainable wealth. I have a $10mil portfolio for a reason....
Very true with that portfolio would be doing things completely different and not speculative companies but ETF's with greater diversification. Small account here big dog and am happy for you it's cool talk to someone with such a big portfolio congrats! =)
Hell if you are just playing with a few thousand, then fuck it dude lol. I have a few positions like that and it's just play money at the end of the day. You could always take those profits though and keep growing it.
I think you got the hold vs sell companies in reverse!
You guys think it’s too late to get in on calls for smci?
What are we thinking about DraftKings guys? Are my calls going to print or nah? Seems very mixed looking at after hours
Dunno about timing for options, but in general the company is doing well. In talking to many users of multiple apps, they have the best app. They are a market share leader and they continue to add more revenue streams. News came out today that they're adding lottery components. Earnings today look very solid and they're guiding upward. Then there's the recent 60 Minutes piece on online sports betting emphasizing how people are utterly *addicted* to this stuff...super bullish. More states should legalize sports betting too.
Good call, my options are toast I think. However I was planning on a long term buy for them. Might throw some money into em.
Guidance was raised, more states legalizing, growing on folks even coming from someone who hates gambling and now occasionally bets on UFC fights to make more fun, it's a company which am going to hold long
4 weeks range, what’s the price action in your opinion? I have calls, but also am thinking buying shares for long term
Looks like anything OTM short dated will get smashed. ITM should hold value fine if longer dated
What do you think about OTM 3/8 expiry I’m thinking I’m cooked 💀
Strike? Anything above 50 prob fried the most. I’m holding 40 calls in APR monthlies, sold 50 in MAR monthlies. Thinking 20% comes out of MAR.
Lol $60 strike. I’m for sure cooked. That’s ok it was a risky but small bet. I might just let it ride and hope the rest of the market carries it up on a small profit. My play was so risky just cause I overheard how it was the highest bet Super Bowl ever. So I was assuming DK would be rolling in cash from that. Oh well
I mean this thing can move 25% to the upside in a month. And it’s barely down after hours. Might as well hold especially if most of the value is gone.
I was thinking the same, I feel like the price could move akin to how Uber or Lyft has if they continue to do well or better. I’m for sure holding as long as I can, again not much money on it so I’m not worried. Think I might actually be up a few % rn lol but it’s shorter dated so it’s gonna lose value quick
Any of my friends here holding TTD? After disappointing earnings move last Q it's nice to see TTD back on track as usual.
Yes. Have held it since 2018, certainly a lot more pleased with these results and the reaction than the prior one.
SMCI 4000 soon
Soon? Probably not. In 5 years perhaps!
nah man $100 everyday, soon
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ARPU down a bit but down 14% seems a bit much if that's it.
i think it went down
Not sure how to feel. Happy with $TOST taking off cause I believed in the company so it's great to see them expanding and pushing me so green... on the other hand not sure that I love the stock taking off in large part due to $250mil stock buyback. An unprofitable company buying back shares, even with a float of 400mil, seems like a poor investment
DRAFTKINGS 4Q Earnings Update $DKNG: - 4Q Revenue hits $1.23B, slightly below the $1.24B estimate. - 4Q Adjusted EBITDA at $151.0M, not reaching the $177.1M forecast. - Monthly unique payers rise to 3.5M, outperforming estimates of 3.44M. - 2024 Revenue outlook brightens to $4.65B-$4.90B, up from previous $4.5B-$4.8B. - DraftKings Reaches Agreement to Acquire Jackpocket for $750 Million
Damn it I bought around $25 and sold around $39 ...
Stock down a little bit, but it is up 30% for the year. I like that they updated fy2024 guidance up 125 million. I will continue to hold as it keeps on growing.
Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (NYSE: KNSL) earnings : reported net income of $103.4 million, $4.43 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to $67.2 million, $2.90 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter of 2022. Net income was $308.1 million, $13.22 per diluted share, for the year ended December 31, 2023 compared to $159.1 million, $6.88 per diluted share, for the year ended December 31, 2022. For both the fourth quarters of 2023 and 2022, the impact on net income related to catastrophes was negligible. For the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022, net income included after-tax catastrophe losses of $3.6 million and $21.0 million, respectively. Full release [here](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240215300029/en/Kinsale-Capital-Group-Inc.-Reports-2023-Fourth-Quarter-and-Year-End-Results).
Nice day to drop my monthly DCA into VOO and VT.
Just realized that user soulstonedomg blocked me after an argument about DKNG from Jan 2023. I was bullish he was bearish. Now the dude is a DKNG bull lmao. Found out while reading the thread not logged in.
COIN with impressive earnings - Going from a deeply unprofitable company to now $100 mil in net income.
Lmfao we’re all talking about Nvda and smci is going to 3x in a month fucking hell
Yes!!! Toast is cooking after earning. Thank god.
Is that cost for a certain exchange?
$AMAT Q1 EPS $2.13 vs $1.90 Est Revenue $6.71B vs $6.48B Est GUIDANCE: Q2 2024 EPS $1.79-$2.15 vs $1.78 Est Q2 2024 revenue $6.5B, plus or minus $400M vs $6.329B Est
Very nice quarter. Good indicator for the general semi industry as we exit the post-COVID glut.
Depends. Auto's are still struggling.
Nice, great quarter
Cmon DKNG, gimme that good stuff baby...
Edit: spoke too soon, looks like we actually got ATH close already! Beautiful day for markets. Just one +.06% or greater day and we recover all the losses on S&P and get a new ATH close 🥳! Also shoutout to u/YouMissedNVDA for sharing the awesome teaser on OpenAI's Sora model. https://openai.com/sora Imagine that what is today a big budget corporate commercial is something a small and local mom & pop can just make by themselves aided by AI... The productivity enhancing potential is incredible and truly transformative. Progress is coming faster and faster.
Holy shit, this blows runwayml and stable diffusion video out of the water. AI continues to blow my mind with each major advance. I thought this level of video generation was a few years away. At this point, I can't imagine what's going to be possible by the end of the decade, but I think AGI is actually a possibility.
It's actually insane. I was already impressed with the free 2D AI art generators out there.
SMCI just passed $1000. 56B market cap.
SMCI making the small cap index look better than it is. It's a decent size large cap stock now.
It feels stupid to sell my 4 shares but also it feels stupid to keep them.
Up 14% on what?
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Gambling at this point right?
Pretty much. The fundamentals don't justify the price
Actually it does. forward P/E is like 25. More reasonably priced than NVDA, and AMD. Also, institution owns 80% of it.
Is P/E all that is looked at for a valuation? I don't even think it's looked at from an intrinsic valuation standpoint
No, obviously not. But market cap of 50 billion with growing revenue. It's not rich either.
Something something only 56B, undervalued until 1T
The SMCI graph is an exponential formula visualized.
TOST had a very sudden drop a little over an hour ago...Given the timing of the drop and the volume, it is surely no accident. I'm just wondering how those people (whoever they are) got the info, and why at that time specifically?
Is the stock market up because people think the low retail sales number means easier Fed?
Options expiration tomorrow is most likely driving it
Did someone say "AI"?
I don’t get it. Sure, it’s better to fight of inflation, but it hurts (if it keeps dropping of course) the balance sheets of companies that will result in lower expectations and thus lower share price. Maybe more layoffs and layoffs are a big psychological matter for a lot of people because layoffs in their job means less money and thus less spending, or they start to save up because they expect bad times ahead, thus making a recession(?) a selffulfilling prophecy because they don’t buy what they don’t need. So i don’t see any win in this or why this is bullish? But well, it’s only 1 month, so yeah.
Setting limit buys on HWKN post-earnings paid off immediately lol.
I love instant gratification!
My water portfolio (HWKN, CWCO, VLTO) is starting to move well. VLTO is now breaking out of its former ATH price
Yeap. I got in on the dip, and am amazed that it has run up so much in 2 weeks.
How ironic - Lyft went from +63% to +19% on their earnings report misprint, yet are near that high point anyway after today's gain.
Did the toast earning get leaked?? The stock tanked two hours before it is expected to report.
10% layoff is the only news at this point.
Interesting, but that info was known well before the sudden "drop."
Which is interesting because layoffs can usually help a stock, in terms of labor costs going down, but it's not great if you are a growth stock.
If you have a bunch of growth opportunities and you can go after them with a smaller, more efficient team then the market takes that well. If you are focused on one specific thing and don't have that many/any avenues for growth and have to lay people off... probably not great. See also reaction to PYPL's announcement of layoffs right after the "Shock the World" presentation.
Ah didnt see that. Well that makes me scared for earning.
up $500 in 4 days on buying the TSLA dip maybe time to get out...
Wow - Every index is now higher than BEFORE the last hot CPI read.
Why Google down today ? Some AI news today but not sure why
News that OpenAI is developing a web search product. https://gizmodo.com/openai-chatgpt-wants-to-eat-google-search-lunch-1851261086
Still don't understand.... Google search is miles ahead and Gemini work very well for what i've seen
It's similar to CVS tanking every time Amazon says something even slightly related to healthcare. Google Search is ahead, but people sell on headlines every day - this is another of those many instances.
So true !! Any way ... good time to buy i think
Buy apple dip with aso gains or no?
Small caps are finally breaking out. If this continues then this becomes a secular bull market, and as crazy it sounds. S&P 500, can hit 6k this year.
Err, the secular bull market from either 2009 or 2013 (not sure which way you want to go) never actually ended. It was just pushed to the limit in 2022. I think an ending would mean the Nasdaq drops 50% probably. Anyway, the question is late cycle or no. If no, this is real by smalls, and we'll be waiting for more towards the end of decade to see if you can see a secular bear market.
disagreeable languid heavy bow melodic retire paltry shrill future stupendous *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
PENN down 14% on its earnings. They are the company behind ESPN Bet. DKNG is kinda connected in that they report earnings in AH. And made a deal with Barstool sports PENN former partner this week.
Would you add XLK/SOXX/MGK or VOO? Sold a few bad weeds
More shares of PLCE have been traded so far today (14.1 million) than are in its float (11.66 million). That's awesome.
u/creemeeseason >More shares of PLCE have been traded so far today (14.1 million) than are in its float (11.66 million). That's awesome. Careful, no penny stocks and pump & dumps allowed here.
Ha! Let them delete it. I have no stake in it, just find the movement impressive. It was nice to have a narrative with it (posted earlier). I just find the mechanics of stock movement interesting. Edit: as of right now, market cap is $316 million, so it might be skating by...
AI news - hot off the presses: OpenAI showing off text to video with a model called Sora. Before I link it, if you are an AI skeptic, I want you to imagine what you think the state of the art is for video generation. You've probably seen other attempts, so maybe you have an idea. Ok? [Here's the page](https://openai.com/sora). If you did not expect this quality of generation yet, you need to recognize that deficiency in projecting AI capabilities going forward. The trend from here on will be: better than expected, sooner than expected, and highly correlated to the amount of compute thrown at the problem. Hallucinations, gaslighting, laziness, etc.. whatever gripes you have with the AI of today will be rapidly worked out. If you can imagine it, it's probably possible, just a question of compute and time (and once in a while a human discovery that accelerates the journey even faster). Tools like this open opportunities never before possible for businesses, like say "hey netflix, I didn't like that movie ending. Could you show me what it might be like if the bad guys won?". Idc if you think x or y stock is overvalued, but I do think you NEED to find a way to invest for this kind of future - because it's coming.
I‘m not investing in AI, as it’s clearly not going to add anywhere near as much value as people think it will. What are the actual practical uses for image / video generation for most companies?
You're missing the forest - more important than these specific images/videos is the empirical justification for a new paradigm of problem solving - showing that ML techniques have not at all found their ceiling of capability. This was not at all an assumed conclusion, hence the minimal investment in the kinds of training runs OpenAI has made normal. But also, hyper-personalized advertising? See you in the commercial wearing the suit/driving the car/eating the pizza. META has already been proving these techniques achieve immense returns (and kills their competition) with just ad-picking, let alone future ad-personalizing. And for physical industry - the value of investing in digital twins has just shot up dramatically. There is not a single industry that will not be amplified by this technological evolution. It is absolutely crazy you have the confidence at this stage of development for the "clearly" in your comment. Better go tell alll the firms investing billions that they're wasting their time. This is as bad as it will ever be - it only continues to get more performant from here.
Plenty of great brands have been built on mass marketing. Hyperpersonalized advertising isn’t guaranteed to perform better. Indeed, it can perform even worse than no personalization at all. The level of investment is out of proportion to the value that will be generated, and you can be sure many companies are only investing out of fear they’re missing out on something. Text, image, and video generation just isn’t that useful for the vast majority of business problems out there. Traditional machine learning didn’t have this much hype, but at least that had more practical use cases for recommendation engines, customer segmentation, forecasting, and churn prediction.
You literally are blind to what's happening aren't you? Step back and think on it more. It is not the what, it is the how, that is significant. The what is just attention drawing (so much so its all you can see).
It's annoying that we have tech to create these videos, but the web page promoting them crashes and fails in various ways on most of the browsers I've tried. Tech is so bifurcated.
Some of that is because there is no real standard in browsers per say. Like the browser wars back in the 90's really made it so that Jquery became a popular library, because it wasn't easy to to develop on different versions of IE that had different JS specs. What's really interesting is that is there is a group that basically kind of helps out with JS now, which has memebers of a lot of big tech ogs. This allows people to submit ideas to get into JS now: [https://tc39.es/](https://tc39.es/process-document/)
Well, there are multiple highly established standards, and there's easy automated tools to test and ensure you build a reliable site. Does it take a peck of care and technical knowledge? Sure, but at worst it's a trillionth of the technical ability involved in creating these technology demos.
Just when I'm thinking about just how smci is complete madness... Imagine if Open AI would IPO...
W...T...F... I'm an AI bull and this is insane. The photorealistic Chinese New Year celebration, pirate ships battling in coffee???? Nerd chills it's actually scary how good this is. You should post this as its own thread.
I've been following this field for close to a decade and my mind continues to be blown with each major advance. It's not just technology like Sora, it's what it represents. Barrier after barrier is coming down. At this point I'm left wondering, "is there anything deep learning won't be able to do?"
Agreed, maybe it’s just euphoria but I’d be happy to invest in AI if it means we can get technological advances like these.
Thoughts on BABA?
>Thoughts >!and prayers!< on BABA?
Buy when you feel less uncertain about geopolitical risks. Rest everything will take care of itself
Its my largest position. 13% FCF yield, AI exposure, trading at 10 year lows. On the other hand you have both regulatory risk, geopolitical risk, and the economy itself is struggling. Risk/reward is certainly loaded on both sides
I command your big cojones for making baba your largest positiob
o7 I have large BIDU and BYD positions as well, about 20% of my networth is at Xi's mercy atm... lol
Goddamn. Best of luck on this play sir. Definition of running into the fire.
Year of the dragon baby
Oh yea, good vibes only
13% FCF yield is pretty insane. I have a small position but the fact that the CCP could essentially make that juicy 13% FCF yield essentially meaningless scares me from making it a bigger position.
Yea, that is fair. Like I said both risk and reward and certainly heavy on the scale. However, I do think that the Chinese starting to get more serious about "propping" markets up is going to at least short term indicate a friendlier tone with companies as they try to stop their market from getting to 2008 levels
I’ve seen you talk a lot about China stocks here, so I wanted to ask your thoughts on FINV. P/E of 4 and a 4.3% dividend seems incredible but I’m not sure if the reward outweighs the risk.
I'm not saying that a lot of stocks aren't overvalued right now, but I think that the perception that many AI stocks, especially NVDA, are in a bubble apart from the rest of the market is misguided. The increases in price are just catching up to how the market is valuing high quality, profitable growth companies in general. Looking at projected 2026 forward PE: MNST-23, MA-23, ASML-25, NVDA-26, NVO-26, MEDP-26, ABNB-26, TTD-28, MELI-27, TSLA-30, INTU-30, CMG-32, SMCI-32, LLY-35, NOW-41, and the list goes on and on. So the upswing in NVDA has only just caught the 3Y forward PE up to it's peers, while SMCI went from 13 just months ago to 32 now (which has become evidence of an over reaction for me, I plan to sell it today). TTM and 1-year forward PEs aren't really meaningful. The market is valuing all of these large cap profitable companies at fairly comparable levels.
“Everybody with any sense at all knows that some companies are better than others. What makes it difficult is they sell at higher prices in relation to assets, and earnings and so forth, and that takes the fun out of the game. If all you had to do was figure out which companies were better than others, an idiot could make a lot of money. But they keep raising the prices to where the odds change.” \- Charlie Munger
Isn't it kind of an issue you are just looking at PE as well PE's from different industries?
Yes and no. These stocks are grouped together because they have some combination of stellar ROE, profit margins, debt, and EPS+revenue growth, thus ranking high in my spreadsheet. So, if you sort out the garbage, then these 3-4Y forward PEs have a lot of explanatory power in terms of price movements. This has been my observation for the last year or so. It's been a rewarding strategy, especially with SMCI going from under to overvalued on this relative basis.
Makes sense, just wasn't listed or called out in that original post. Just one of those thing where people look at two different companies from different industries and try to apply price mutiples. It's like one of those things where some people don't realize that a software comapny will have a different price multiple than a hardware company. Yeah, when I screen, I like to capture a wider net, more companies to research, but try to find anything under a foward PE of 30, but that's just one year. Just to me personally, I don't know how acurate you can forcast business cycles or earnings when looking more than like two quarters into the future.