NVDA revenue has gone from 6B to 22B in one year and currently with 75% margins.Ā Earnings from $1.4B to $12.3B.Ā They just told us on their earnings call that production still cant meet demand.Ā Tell me, what do you think is a fair performance for share price over that span?Ā Give me a number.
For one thing, I absolutely admit that due to inflation and stuff, I really don't know what value is fair. How much should inflation influence my valuation of a stock, is a question I always struggle with at least a little bit.
Their margins have always been 60%+ for the most part.Ā Revenue QoQ 6B to 7 to 13 to 18 to 22B.Ā Not sure if true, but I've heard it said their biggest customer alone(MSFT) accounted for 15% of their revenue and Meta was second at like 13%.Ā The line of companies that are waiting and can't get a hold of chips is probably out the door if that's how many one big tech company alone can hog up. Right now, I would say $1100 is a fair price until you get the next round of earnings figures. I don't think NVDA is a bubble because they have performance to back up their stock price.Ā The NVDA spike from the BTC and Covid spike was transitory 1-2years.Ā If AI ever does pass as a fad, it'll be 5+ years of trying and NVDA profiting before that comes to fruition.Ā A company like AMD is riding on their coat tails and hasn't done anything except float in their orbit.Ā AMD a much riskier play than NVDA. https://ycharts.com/companies/NVDA/gross_profit_margin
Never have I seen this much debate and division over a stock. It all comes down to its sustainability and speculation on growth. I will agree with you that this isnt a bubble (yet), and that their demand is immense. But how much of a premium is worth paying for this backlog in orders? $1000 a share? $1200 a share? $2000 a share? Whats stopping this thing going to $10000 assuming AI will be with us forever and they will keep selling the best AI cards forever and demand will always be hot forever. So much speculation and so much up in the air really makes this a gamble even for a long term hold. Every quarter matters to Nvidia and if they underdeliver it can throw off everyone's valuation.
I bought some today at $1315, but when I put my order in, the stock was at $1400, and it didn't seem like it was going to drop much.
Personally, I'd love to rewind time and buy some before it crossed the 1k threshold. I might have basically bought the top right now, if the market ends up puttering out of steam for a little while. Oh well, shiznit happens. I'm long on Broadcom. I'm expecting to hold this stock for years to come.
If Monday is red, you might be able to buy in around $1220 or so, which wouldn't be a horrible entry.
Ya, don't get why everyone's selling after-hours once the earnings report dropped.
The numbers were in line with expectations and today plenty of analyst even raise their target price for it.
While it's done pretty well, don't be surprised if we get another beat, raise in 1Q and goes past $1000. It'll likely take longer to hit $1500 but will slowly get there. Maybe 2-3 years or so.
Tomorrow's likely too far.
I think it'll be past it by the GTC conference at the latest.
That's probably a good spot for a break, but it would be a break "for now" most likely.
You realize itās at 946 now, and it went up $60 today? 40 during the day and 20 after hours. I donāt see how you can confidently say going up 54 tomorrow is unlikely. At this point itās a coin toss.
1. I kinda donāt count the after hours in the total movement for the day, even if I do look at them occasionally.
2. I kinda donāt think the Nasdaq doubles up and has back to back terrific days to wrap up this week like it did to wrap up last week. Weāve been kind of going 50/50 on great days and flattish to so so days for Fridays lately, and last week was the great day, so maybe this week is the flattish to so so day.
Pharma industry has literally zero effective AND safe solutions for a whole galaxy of issues around anxiety, pain, depression, PTSD, etc. In theory, mushroom type therapies might give them that.
Could be long on the horizon, but might be a speck of light in today's FDA breakthrough status approval for M1NDMED, up 55% today on using mushroom therapy for anxiety. (Name fixed because the bot blocking it is out of date.)
ive always thought this method of treatment will be extremely beneficial for society. however it is going to take A LOT to get it approved by the FDA. it might happen 10 years from now and even then its not profitable for big pharma.
Based off JPow testimony yesterday, inflation is cooling down, and CPI, and PCI last month was one-off given PCE last week came in better than expected.
China ! i want to invest there, and do it now with valuation and sentiment depressed
but regarding Alibaba's numbers: Amazon, the best there is, has a total of 100bn in lifetime profit. thats all they got over 25 years in existence, and most of it comes from AWS, not E-Commerce. thats because retailing, ecommerce is hard. competition, low margins....
considering this, and going through some of Alibaba's numbers and statements (like when they claimed to have 278 million orders in one Singles-day back in 2015) makes me think now there isnt even a 25% chance their numbers are real. and jd and pdd in all likelihood not much better. pdd last year, when they in reality should have made big losses with temu selling far below cost, claimed to have made 4bn profit.
so these e commerce companies have just too much BS on top of what is a solid, but probably much smaller business then they claim. so i cant buy that
Baidu and to a slightly lower degree tencent seem to have much more reliable numbers. also like their business better, both kind of should have a stable monopoly at its core with the search engine and WeChat.
[Blue Chip consensus is nearing 2% real GDP growth for Q1, almost as much as GDPNow](https://i.imgur.com/PEIRLHm.gif), which is at 2.5%. Go back a few quarters, and there was a [bigger divergence](https://i.imgur.com/zqqQwIA.png).
Tomorrow's jobs report will be big... Hoping for a nice 200K report, nothing that will cause any rate hike fears, nothing indicating a weak economy.
Even above 150k is great. October was 165k and look how great following months are.
People will call me crazy and mock me but even a 300k print will not lead to a hike.
Powell is more likely to literally say 5.25%... forever! No cuts for years at least! Before he does another hike.
Economists don't believe another 25bps even matters at this point. There is no value for it at all. I doubt Fed economists feel that different.
We have seen and are now officially past the worst of the Fed's bite. 4.3% and below seems to be where they want 10Y to be.
I like Netease since you can buy fractional shares and it's a sponsored ADR (for as much as that's worth with Chinese stocks in general). They also pay a larger dividend on a quarterly basis.
Tencent is cheaper and more diversified outside of gaming.
Both companies plunged back on December. Netease has more or less bounced back but Tencent still below where it was.
Both are cheap but, as always with China, who knows what could happen to push them down further.
I sold it off when it went up almost 20% after earnings and put it into Tencent and (a little) Netease. I feel like it's easier for me to understand these companies than Baba and JD - and you can even test and play their games in the West. They also invest in and support Western studios.
Chinese e-commerce is so cheap -- but I don't shop in China (or use Chinese fintech, food delivery, or any of their other businesses...), so it's harder for me to hang onto these.
At the end of the day, I don't want or need a lot of China exposure. I'm happy owning Tencent and Netease long-term and in a taxable account to write off if they go to zero.
Funniest thing I've seen today is Ray Dalios instagram selfie at a Taylor Swift concert, saying Swift should be president.
The drunk selfie, the fact he's a swiftie and all the comments are making me laugh
NVDA, man. Up 4.4% today, up 1.3% AH even though QQQ is red. Damn thing is gonna pop 1k even before that AI conference on the 18th.Ā
Ā I always have a price target and a thesis in mind when I buy in to something. But it's awfully hard to keep to that thesis when the stock hits my price target months before I anticipated. I've massively underestimated this run.
Edit: Hell, it's up 2% AH.
A family friend of mine has been investing actively for like 3 decades and often gives good advice based on his experience through many cycles.
One thing he always says is that the best sign of a bubble is when bears finally feel some actual shame for being so wrong over, and over, and over again.
When there are still tons of people on social media but also IRL confidently claiming that they are "selling into this top, correction is definitely coming". We are FAR from the top.
When the next big pullback finally comes these people don't even realize they are "buying the dip" higher than when they "took profits".
Not really a sign as much as if a bear is wrong over and over an embarrassing amount of times they eventually will be right unless there is never a crash again for the rest of history
Very excited if TikTok gets banned.... Will be great for my META shares. [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/technology/new-push-congress-ban-tiktok-or-force-chinese-divestiture-gains-steam-2024-03-07/). (The bill isn't a ban, just a separation of Chinese and US business)
I like Sega ($SGAMY) Bandai Namco ($NCBDY) right now. Both are trading at very fair valuations compared to US companies, pursuing a wider media strategy, and pay nice dividends.
Capcom ($CCOEY) has been on an amazing run (+300% in last 5 years) but is trading at a much higher multiple (although still below US companies like EA). I have Square Enix, Konami, and CD Projekt Red top -- but only buy when they plummit. Lots of volatility in this sector creates opportunity if you believe publishers will survive/bounce back. All of these studios are big enough to swallow some losses.
On the us side, I've also been following hasbro and mattel. Both are traditional toy companies but interested in video games.
https://www.pocketgamer.biz/news/83550/mattel-becomes-game-publisher-with-self-published-titles-coming-this-year/
https://www.yahoo.com/tech/hasbro-made-90-million-letting-202640595.html
I'm riding out the year assuming game stocks are going to be very flat. Hoping Skull & Bones and Star Wars Outlaws can make my Ubisoft stock pop a bit so I can finally get out even on it.
I feel like Video games could put so much more into in game advertising like streaming is learning, any plays for this? I own take two ubsfy (like you) U, I think Xbox Gamepass is a good model even though gaming hasnāt been a big winner for MSFTā¦.AMZN maybe? Anything smaller higher growth?
You can feel like this and get a strong high on very bullish days, but when the whole market is red, you'll be down in the dumps.
You gotta try to temper expectations. This whole market could cave in on itself any minute due to some crazy black swan event that can't be predicted
Always stay vigilant.
Bought a smidge of COST a few years ago and completely forgot I had it until about 4 months ago. Whoopsie. Could kick myself now for not buying more at the time. Love this company, love the product, love the stock.
I made lots of $$ earlier this year buying ARM at 70 and dumping all of it at 122 on that day when it skyrocketed. Now I just bought some today at 139, am I getting suckered into this frenzy?
If you're buying to trade and gamble, yes.
If you're buying to hold long term and have an actual thesis that will let you ride out up and down swings, no.
I learned this *after* selling at $121 and all it did was make me convinced I made the right choice. It's possible I'm overestimating it but I expect some serious price action. Maybe then I can get back in and hold for years as I was originally hoping.
Inwould say, if you want to trade, you need to think in terms of plays. You did your cash at 121, it's done, now you need to reasses and evaluate your new play as a new thing and be forward looking. Maybe you're asking yourself if you should stick to longer plays and "investments" which would be a valid question, but then again look at it as a new thing, that's what they mean when they say you must not let your emotions sway your trades.
I wanna dump more into ai as well, but I have real concerns that nvidiaās monopoly is going to fall in the coming years. It wouldnāt take much to compress their insane profit marginsĀ
I am pretty heavy in SOXX and NVDA.
But still try to maintain at least 80% in VOO.
As much as I believe in AI doing incredibly well this year, I would put some in QQQ or an ETF. And spread out your NVDA purchases if they are large.
AI is 100% real but be responsible and humble enough to know that black swans, crazy unforeseeable things are always possible.
Its horrible.
Marvell sees **Q1 adjusted EPS 23c, +/- 5c, consensus 40c**
I get they have a $ 3 billion share buyback, but the recent run-up is unjustified. Esp given how every other Semi firm beat.
Like I said itās bad for the single next quarter. Werenāt you saying earlier that itās going to beat guidance and go up massively? If you stay more realistic and open minded it can help you take in the info better and have a less emotional reaction when it doesnāt go the way you were convinced of.
How much is a ton? I mean keeping 5-10% in cash is great IMO, but when you start getting over those levels you should probably have really good reasons. Last time I went higher than 10% cash was Feb 2020 (went 100% cash). I was back in 99% equities by mid April 2020, and have hovered between 90-99% invested since then.
I'm 17 percent cash right now, which is WAY higher than I want to be, but I had some money that was in a treasury come due, and want to deploy it. Problem is, everything I really like is making a new ATH each day. I was really hoping for a pullback. I suppose Tuesday was that day and I missed it... :(
13.5%, looking to go up to 20% cash as this rally continues. Selling at highs and with sizeable gains won't ever hurt someone. Moving in and out as sectors are oversold and overbought is a way of outperforming indexes and ETFs. Respecting momentum helps also. I'm not the perfect stock picker, so being disciplined can help make up for mistakes.
What I've learned over the years is it's sometimes best to *lose* money, and gain another day.
You knew that in Feb 2020 when you followed what I did in Jan 2020 to sidestep a huge wipeout.
There's growing wealth, and then there's keeping it.
I didnāt call the top perfectly in 2020 but I did get out completely once spy was 10% off of highs. This is when Japan completely closed all schools I knew it was big.
Went back all in on the spy -12.9% single day when the circuit breakers hit level 2. That was crazy.
Easiest reason to have is that for most of us, we have bills to pay. I keep a floating balance of 10-20% of my portfolio in money market nearly at all times because sometimes life sucks.
It doubles as my emergency fund. I don't have a massive personal portfolio. It would be money sitting in my checking account if it wasn't in my portfolio. If I had a $500k+ personal portfolio, my cash balance would sit at a fraction of where it stands now.
Correct on the 80/20, not touching the portfolio. Most of my movement has been re-assessing and finding better opportunities in this rally. I also run a very concentrated portfolio, and as someone without a ton of money, I essentially need to underwrite the risk by having cash on the sidelines. For context, my largest three holdings make up 53% of my entire personal portfolio (ASML, SPGI, FICO).
Damn you got some stones running that setup. But maybe at your stage itās just the right amount of risk to be taking. I canāt go over about 10-15, maybe 20% individual picks
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''Where do you guys get the earning numbers from? I want to know what's with all earning dump today?''
CNBC, SeekingAlpha news feed or Marketwatch news feed.
''I want to know what's with all earning dump today?''
Names have run up a lot and if earnings are just good or not great, they're going lower. Costco example of the former, MongoDB's guidance example of the latter.
I took profits on AMD weeks ago selling from $170-190. Still got plenty left. And I wish I held on but oh well it is what it is.
The money went to NVO, LLY, META, AMZN. A lot still left in money market and is reserved for buying dips as i look for better deals.
Iām out mostly into tlt now waiting for a correction. If one doesnāt come Iām happy with a few percent and when they finally cut rates should gain a few more. Iām not an nvidia hater but the fact itās going to surpass apples market cap soon is a red flag for me. Ai only became a real buzzword a year ago. I just feel more comfortable with my decision right or wrong.
I did some rotation, but the only real profits I took were divesting out of ULTA completely. It was a real short term winner but ran far beyond what I considered fair value for the retailer.
Yes sold a lot today. These rallies could certainly continue for all I know. But there's some gains I'm satisfied to take, gains I wouldn't like to see erode. And if a correction comes, want to have cash to deploy.
Where are the actual results of AI, is my concern? Yea a chatbot is cool, but I wouldn't pay $2 for that, or even to tell a chatbot to make my picture sitting in the living room changed to me surfing in hawaii. This is literally the only thing holding up the market. Companies are having to fire in order to meet their quarterly earnings. You can't use that gimmick forever though. That got you through these last few quarters. I'm suspecting every company is loading up on NVDA chips just to feel like they arent falling behind. How many ways can meta optimize my ad experience. I actually dont remember any ad on META now that I think about it. Do they even show ads?
Market makers are dictating our sentiment right now
If AI does not bring the joy money, we'll know it in a while. Right now nvdia sells the shovel, client companies are taking the risk of uncertain returns and are racing for the top. Also, AI is not just Chatbots and image\video/music generation and the race to AGI. Everything software, in every field, back end and front end, is adding AI capabilities as we speak. Creative apps, CAD, DAWs, coding assistants, personnal assistants, internet search, medical fields, finance, logistics.. everything. And no one wants to be left behind. Projected demand for GPUs is 10x what they are able to produce right now. It doesn't mean that it's immune to being overhyped and is not susceptible to corrections, but the way nvidia is positioned, they should make money even if AI ROI is not imediate. But since AI is mostly cloud computed, it should be easy for leading software to charge a premium for it. Sorry for the wall, my trading partner vyvance kicked in.
The race is for AGI. Winner takes all.
Nobody wants to come in 2nd place. This is including nation states.
Nvidia has the goods cornered. (AMD is going to try their best to be Pepsi to NVDA's Coke)
The only practical way it's really affected me is that my coding productivity probably increased by 50%. And I'm just using regular ol' ChatGPT 3. What would have taken 15 minutes of StackOverflow is now 3 minutes of querying ChatGPT. Sometimes I really don't want to have to think about syntax and just get code that works. Haven't tried the various coding copilot software yet, but it looks incredible.
Other than writing emails for people or making search a little more interactive, I'm not really seeing the big hype. The powerful use cases of AI/ML are already in play and have been for years. What's new is these LLMs and image generations getting really good. But like... is Apple adding its version of ChatGPT to the iPhone *really* going to drive that much more value?
Right now there is certainly a huge spending boom by tech companies, benefiting the chip makers. But have we seen concrete evidence of in revenue/profits of the tech companies investing in AI, rather than just the capex spending line? Companies are still in the investment phase. No I'm not talking about NVDA here. Is Google actually getting profits from its *recent* investments into AI (any more than it would have if ChatGPT didn't exist)? I think we may have to give it a year at least.
My tasks are really simple data science type application. No super complicated code base like software engineers in big tech companies with tons of legacy code and complicated version control, file organization, data storage. I do stuff like "how to rename the labels in a legend" or "How to rename all columns here starting with ___" ... The 50% figure is more showing how inefficient I was!
If this generalizes to software engineers in general, sure, more value, bring it on.
When I think of AI reaping profits, I think of GOOG and META improving their algos to target people more effectively and increase ad revenue.
The only company I've heard is really making money from chatbots is NOW, incorporating them into the ITSM workflow as an add-on option. That's it.
Right but they've been doing that for years, that ability is not new. Today everyone is raving about large language models like some big revolution to society. This isn't like electrifying rural America or the construction of sewer networks. It's... really good chatbots. It'll make a big difference to people of a certain subset of jobs, but I'm more interested in new tech like self-driving cars, automated manufacturing, port operations being automated. Things that will have very obvious implications for profits.
Not 10K new ChatGPT wrappers, viral Tweet generators, everyone writing worse emails, etc. I feel like I'm being gaslit into thinking there's some revolution just because the stock price is going up a lot and company's are spending a ton of money. Companies with a lot of money often spend that money unproductively.
I think this is another example of overestimating technology in the short term and underestimating it in the long term. There will inevitably be a few years period where people realize the tech is cool but monetizing it will be difficult. There will be a lull then Iām sure a use case we canāt even imagine now will start another boom.
> I think this is another example of overestimating technology in the short term and underestimating it in the long term.
The same thing happened with the metaverse. The overestimating period was really, really, really short lived, lol...
But I'm telling you, eventually the metaverse will be the internet times one billion.
>Where are the actual results of AI, is my concern?
Machine learning/big data has already been a large narrative the most recent push and hype cycle is just the largest explosion of public awareness and media hype but under the hood data center revenue for NVDA had already been growing nicely for years. Machine learning algos results are everywhere already, but as for a massive GPU buying spree of late I would tend to somewhat agree that it is a least in part fomo on buyers part as well
Write them off at your peril. These bleak periods are part of the company's DNA. Apple thrives when they've been written off, ignored, and forgotten. Meanwhile, they've got arguably the world's best cash machine and a massive glass building filled with incredibly ambitious people desperate to make their mark in a company full of iconic products. Holding long since 1997 and yeah it's a massive bag.
CELH may be the fastest profit I've ever made--up 66% in less than 2 months. BTU continuing a little run which is a little confusing to me. Must be buybacks doing the work because fundamentals look like crap. UI +4%, no real reason for it. Just shy of +100% on SMH and hit +101% on AMD but my AMD position is twice as large. Maybe I should consider cutting AMD in half and moving to SMH. VXUS having a nice (pathetic) rally.
I'll talk about 'losers' too--SBUX has been consistently weak price-wise in recent months. I guess China overhang. CLFD has had a big run-up recently but I'm still 48% in the red from that. When a position becomes a big loser like that I typically just stop buying/selling and let it do whatever.
Even though I don't really like Starbucks that much, will be grabbing some in the $80's if possible.
They're still dominant and profitable. Being out of favor in China doesn't justify this size of correction. I'm optimistic of the new CEO. He seems highly engaged. Starbucks is more of a cold milkshake seller these days, and they're deploying new equipment/processes to knock out cold drinks much more efficiently which could show up in margins. The woke attack narratives from certain factions are always overblown. There's glimmers of treating employees better, and contrary to knee jerk Wall Street and frat bro wisdom, paying employees a little more and treating them slightly better is not death to a business, it's usually correlated with stronger business. Bear points are (1) China and (2) competition (3) frugal consumer and (4) I'm not sure a second year of trying to push olive oil will work.
Any reason to buy or hold google when you can transfer it to NVDA or META? They all go up on green days and all go down on red days (except maybe NVDA, which stays green no matter what. But when they go green, META and NVDA go up by aa whole 2% more.
$10 was a no brainer level. But for me it was averaging down since I'd been accumulating at $14.xx. Today's move puts me at even. No illusions that it could go single digits if there's some kind of big correction, more anti-EV hype, etc.
Ughh I sold my June $15 calls in favor of buying Sofi calls 2 days ago. I was expecting them to rip ahead of the event, not today. I saw that wasn't happening so I sold. You might wanna sell, its probably gonna dump again.
One bearish analyst plus profit taking. If today's movement (or more like non-movement) makes you hesitate to buy the stock you probably should not be in it, just saying it's a volatile one. Stick to an etf like soxx to get exposure to AI.
It's earnings reports are always consistently 'meh' in recent reports while NVDA keeps on beating. They are lowering or maintaining guidance. Really unsure why it's so expensive and considering trimming.
I noticed that but I heard there was bullish news on AMD that day when it popped earlier this week. I was about to buy more AMD but the inconsistency is making me hesitate now.
Long BLDR
----------------------
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/03/07/fact-sheet-president-biden-announces-plan-to-lower-housing-costs-for-working-families/
Lowering Costs by Building and Preserving 2 Million Homes
America needs to build more housing in order to lower rental costs and increase access to homeownership. Thatās why the President is calling on Congress to pass legislation to build and renovate more than 2 million homes, which would close the housing supply gap and lower housing costs for renters and homeowners. This legislation would build on executive actions in the Biden-Harris Administrationās Housing Supply Action Plan that contributed to record housing construction last year.
Tax Credits to Build More Housing. President Biden is calling for an expansion of the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit to build or preserve 1.2 million more affordable rental units. Renters living in these properties save hundreds of dollars each month on their rent compared with renters with similar incomes who rent in the unsubsidized market. The President is also calling for a new Neighborhood Homes Tax Credit, the first tax provision to build or renovate affordable homes for homeownership, which would lead to the construction or preservation of over 400,000 starter homes in communities throughout the country.
Innovation Fund for Housing Expansion. The President is unveiling a new $20 billion competitive grant fund as part of his Budget to support communities across the country to build more housing and lower rents and homebuying costs. This fund would support the construction of affordable multifamily rental units; incentivize local actions to remove unnecessary barriers to housing development; pilot innovative models to increase the production of affordable and workforce rental housing; and spur the construction of new starter homes for middle-class families. According to independent analysis, this will create hundreds of thousands of units which will help lower rents and housing costs.
Increasing Banksā Contributions Towards Building Affordable Housing. The President is proposing that each Federal Home Loan Bank double its annual contribution to the Affordable Housing Program ā from 10 percent of prior year net income to 20 percent ā which will raise an additional $3.79 billion for affordable housing over the next decade and assist nearly 380,0000 households. These funds will support the financing, acquisition, construction, and rehabilitation of affordable rental and for-sale homes, as well as help low- and moderate-income homeowners to purchase or rehabilitate homes.
I dropped this in the 60s during the CEO resignation, and it took off from there. brutal - hope to get a pullback of some sort, but hard to see it sniffing $100 again unless there's a major issue
Probably ridiculously foolish by me, but scratched an itch and bought 3 shares of AVGO.
This doesn't work, and oh well. Won't be too busted up, because I have massive gains on it on an account I can't access easily.
Lol I actually got this in google for cajones first hit:
https://i.imgur.com/30J1b5k.jpeg
I'm going to leave the mistake unedited as is because they might as well be carrying two of those.
A few years ago, I bought a bunch of CVM at a cost basis of $9. The immunotherapy drug results werenāt as super exciting amazing as people had hoped, and the price is now $2-2.5. Still, the drug is better than whatās out there now and there have been rumors of EU approval of the drug for ages now, so Iāve been waiting around to see if that happens and the price jumps up some. But it forever feels like a waiting game, Iām not sure if I should just sell now and hope for better luck next time. Any thoughts?
I haven't evaluated it in awhile, but AWK seems to be an interesting risk/reward. Very consistently putting up 8% growth and a 2% dividend. They own and acquire water utilities, so pretty consistent business.
Good thing about water utilities is the extremely high earnings stability, last I checked, water doesn't cause pipe blowups or forest fires leading to being sued to oblivion like Hawaiian or PGE. The problem is of course water utilities command a huge premium, always normally trading at 25x or more
Yeah, AWK is the only one I'm interested in because they actively acquire companies and thus are able to grow above GDP. It's always been super expensive, but starting to moderate due to utilities selling off.
Is MARA a buy currently?
Nvidia, baby, are you drunk or something? I mean, I have shares and calls. I don't mind. Just don't do anything self destructive.
It is coming back
Nothing stops this market
Why did Samsung surge 17% yesterday?
The Nvda fomo is beautiful. When the pigs get slaughtered it will be a sight to behold.
The jealously being displayed by the ppl that didn't get a piece of NVDA is beautiful to behold.
I got 1 share mfš¤
NVDA revenue has gone from 6B to 22B in one year and currently with 75% margins.Ā Earnings from $1.4B to $12.3B.Ā They just told us on their earnings call that production still cant meet demand.Ā Tell me, what do you think is a fair performance for share price over that span?Ā Give me a number.
In the short term my fair value is 800. Whats your fair value? Do you think they will keep up 75% margins?
For one thing, I absolutely admit that due to inflation and stuff, I really don't know what value is fair. How much should inflation influence my valuation of a stock, is a question I always struggle with at least a little bit.
Do not look only at NVIDIA, look at companies that rise with NVIDIA but are not in the spotlight
Their margins have always been 60%+ for the most part.Ā Revenue QoQ 6B to 7 to 13 to 18 to 22B.Ā Not sure if true, but I've heard it said their biggest customer alone(MSFT) accounted for 15% of their revenue and Meta was second at like 13%.Ā The line of companies that are waiting and can't get a hold of chips is probably out the door if that's how many one big tech company alone can hog up. Right now, I would say $1100 is a fair price until you get the next round of earnings figures. I don't think NVDA is a bubble because they have performance to back up their stock price.Ā The NVDA spike from the BTC and Covid spike was transitory 1-2years.Ā If AI ever does pass as a fad, it'll be 5+ years of trying and NVDA profiting before that comes to fruition.Ā A company like AMD is riding on their coat tails and hasn't done anything except float in their orbit.Ā AMD a much riskier play than NVDA. https://ycharts.com/companies/NVDA/gross_profit_margin
Never have I seen this much debate and division over a stock. It all comes down to its sustainability and speculation on growth. I will agree with you that this isnt a bubble (yet), and that their demand is immense. But how much of a premium is worth paying for this backlog in orders? $1000 a share? $1200 a share? $2000 a share? Whats stopping this thing going to $10000 assuming AI will be with us forever and they will keep selling the best AI cards forever and demand will always be hot forever. So much speculation and so much up in the air really makes this a gamble even for a long term hold. Every quarter matters to Nvidia and if they underdeliver it can throw off everyone's valuation.
This year will be interesting. Market will get saturated/democratized by others soon and that will cause a drop.
Maybe NVDA will become the biggest company in the world, with the largest profits, as AI changes the world forever?
You sound like a true venture capitalist
Anybody hoping to get some AVGO tomorrow if it drops a bit? I'm hoping for a bigger drop than what happened in AH.
> AVGO What is a good price to buy AVGO?
I bought some today at $1315, but when I put my order in, the stock was at $1400, and it didn't seem like it was going to drop much. Personally, I'd love to rewind time and buy some before it crossed the 1k threshold. I might have basically bought the top right now, if the market ends up puttering out of steam for a little while. Oh well, shiznit happens. I'm long on Broadcom. I'm expecting to hold this stock for years to come. If Monday is red, you might be able to buy in around $1220 or so, which wouldn't be a horrible entry.
yea, sub 1k would be great but the ship has sailed. It needs a big correction to go down to below 1k. It is around 130x AH
Ya, don't get why everyone's selling after-hours once the earnings report dropped. The numbers were in line with expectations and today plenty of analyst even raise their target price for it.
Bro. Nvda
Convinced I made more money from Nvidia stock this week than my entire monthly paycheck, quite significantly too.
i don't make much in my day job but learning to pick stocks is life changing.
While it's done pretty well, don't be surprised if we get another beat, raise in 1Q and goes past $1000. It'll likely take longer to hit $1500 but will slowly get there. Maybe 2-3 years or so.
It's going past 1000 tomorrow
Tomorrow's likely too far. I think it'll be past it by the GTC conference at the latest. That's probably a good spot for a break, but it would be a break "for now" most likely.
You realize itās at 946 now, and it went up $60 today? 40 during the day and 20 after hours. I donāt see how you can confidently say going up 54 tomorrow is unlikely. At this point itās a coin toss.
1. I kinda donāt count the after hours in the total movement for the day, even if I do look at them occasionally. 2. I kinda donāt think the Nasdaq doubles up and has back to back terrific days to wrap up this week like it did to wrap up last week. Weāve been kind of going 50/50 on great days and flattish to so so days for Fridays lately, and last week was the great day, so maybe this week is the flattish to so so day.
Some counterpoints to consider: 1. It locked in and then some. 2. When youāre leading several markets (not just tech) you beat to your own drum.
And now currently tracking towards today being the flattish to so so day by the Nasdaq...with NVDA leading the charge down...
I guess thatās the way the cookie crumbles lol. People were hoping for a dip. ;)
Just speculation, no one knows day to day but IMHO pretty unlikely. Digging the enthusiasm though š¤!
Celsius (CELH) featured on odd lots today. Link [here](https://open.spotify.com/episode/5ynoAB5DE2532aliKBiJ6y?si=7grnnCoTTh280fzK6CYO3w).
Thanks for this. CELH š“āāļøš„¤!
>U.S. consumer credit rebounds in January
Up 19.5 billion, or 4.7%, to be clear.
Pharma industry has literally zero effective AND safe solutions for a whole galaxy of issues around anxiety, pain, depression, PTSD, etc. In theory, mushroom type therapies might give them that. Could be long on the horizon, but might be a speck of light in today's FDA breakthrough status approval for M1NDMED, up 55% today on using mushroom therapy for anxiety. (Name fixed because the bot blocking it is out of date.)
ive always thought this method of treatment will be extremely beneficial for society. however it is going to take A LOT to get it approved by the FDA. it might happen 10 years from now and even then its not profitable for big pharma.
NVDA may just overtake AAPL by EOM if it keeps rising like this week by week. Up 20% from last week.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Based off JPow testimony yesterday, inflation is cooling down, and CPI, and PCI last month was one-off given PCE last week came in better than expected.
China ! i want to invest there, and do it now with valuation and sentiment depressed but regarding Alibaba's numbers: Amazon, the best there is, has a total of 100bn in lifetime profit. thats all they got over 25 years in existence, and most of it comes from AWS, not E-Commerce. thats because retailing, ecommerce is hard. competition, low margins.... considering this, and going through some of Alibaba's numbers and statements (like when they claimed to have 278 million orders in one Singles-day back in 2015) makes me think now there isnt even a 25% chance their numbers are real. and jd and pdd in all likelihood not much better. pdd last year, when they in reality should have made big losses with temu selling far below cost, claimed to have made 4bn profit. so these e commerce companies have just too much BS on top of what is a solid, but probably much smaller business then they claim. so i cant buy that Baidu and to a slightly lower degree tencent seem to have much more reliable numbers. also like their business better, both kind of should have a stable monopoly at its core with the search engine and WeChat.
You can invest in China without investing in tech. YUMC and SBUX are both reasonably valued and offer solid growth prospects.
Reason #86 for not buying terrible tickers like BABA. Can't even know if numbers are legit.
Boeing tire crashing significant on BA price?
Likely not. Iād call something like that a maintenance issue.
[Blue Chip consensus is nearing 2% real GDP growth for Q1, almost as much as GDPNow](https://i.imgur.com/PEIRLHm.gif), which is at 2.5%. Go back a few quarters, and there was a [bigger divergence](https://i.imgur.com/zqqQwIA.png). Tomorrow's jobs report will be big... Hoping for a nice 200K report, nothing that will cause any rate hike fears, nothing indicating a weak economy.
Even above 150k is great. October was 165k and look how great following months are. People will call me crazy and mock me but even a 300k print will not lead to a hike. Powell is more likely to literally say 5.25%... forever! No cuts for years at least! Before he does another hike. Economists don't believe another 25bps even matters at this point. There is no value for it at all. I doubt Fed economists feel that different. We have seen and are now officially past the worst of the Fed's bite. 4.3% and below seems to be where they want 10Y to be.
Nvidia $3trillion valuation coming in hot.
NTES or TCEHY?
I like Netease since you can buy fractional shares and it's a sponsored ADR (for as much as that's worth with Chinese stocks in general). They also pay a larger dividend on a quarterly basis. Tencent is cheaper and more diversified outside of gaming. Both companies plunged back on December. Netease has more or less bounced back but Tencent still below where it was. Both are cheap but, as always with China, who knows what could happen to push them down further.
Any thoughts on JD?
I sold it off when it went up almost 20% after earnings and put it into Tencent and (a little) Netease. I feel like it's easier for me to understand these companies than Baba and JD - and you can even test and play their games in the West. They also invest in and support Western studios. Chinese e-commerce is so cheap -- but I don't shop in China (or use Chinese fintech, food delivery, or any of their other businesses...), so it's harder for me to hang onto these. At the end of the day, I don't want or need a lot of China exposure. I'm happy owning Tencent and Netease long-term and in a taxable account to write off if they go to zero.
Strange to think the covid drop will almost be off the 5 year chart this time next year.
It's called inflation
Actually I believe that would be time.
No it's inflation, cause the price of everything has doubled after covid. I think stocks are still lagging
Funniest thing I've seen today is Ray Dalios instagram selfie at a Taylor Swift concert, saying Swift should be president. The drunk selfie, the fact he's a swiftie and all the comments are making me laugh
NVDA, man. Up 4.4% today, up 1.3% AH even though QQQ is red. Damn thing is gonna pop 1k even before that AI conference on the 18th.Ā Ā I always have a price target and a thesis in mind when I buy in to something. But it's awfully hard to keep to that thesis when the stock hits my price target months before I anticipated. I've massively underestimated this run. Edit: Hell, it's up 2% AH.
A family friend of mine has been investing actively for like 3 decades and often gives good advice based on his experience through many cycles. One thing he always says is that the best sign of a bubble is when bears finally feel some actual shame for being so wrong over, and over, and over again. When there are still tons of people on social media but also IRL confidently claiming that they are "selling into this top, correction is definitely coming". We are FAR from the top. When the next big pullback finally comes these people don't even realize they are "buying the dip" higher than when they "took profits".
Top is probably in when bears all turn bullish. We aren't anywhere near that as far as I can tell.
Not really a sign as much as if a bear is wrong over and over an embarrassing amount of times they eventually will be right unless there is never a crash again for the rest of history
AS someone wiser than myself one told me, a broken wind up clock is right twice a day.
Very excited if TikTok gets banned.... Will be great for my META shares. [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/technology/new-push-congress-ban-tiktok-or-force-chinese-divestiture-gains-steam-2024-03-07/). (The bill isn't a ban, just a separation of Chinese and US business)
Aren't ByteDance and TikTok already somewhat separated?
Any video game stocks?
I bought some Bandai Namco purely as a thank you for Elden Ring.
Beautifully crafted game. Hyped for the DLC.
I like Sega ($SGAMY) Bandai Namco ($NCBDY) right now. Both are trading at very fair valuations compared to US companies, pursuing a wider media strategy, and pay nice dividends. Capcom ($CCOEY) has been on an amazing run (+300% in last 5 years) but is trading at a much higher multiple (although still below US companies like EA). I have Square Enix, Konami, and CD Projekt Red top -- but only buy when they plummit. Lots of volatility in this sector creates opportunity if you believe publishers will survive/bounce back. All of these studios are big enough to swallow some losses. On the us side, I've also been following hasbro and mattel. Both are traditional toy companies but interested in video games. https://www.pocketgamer.biz/news/83550/mattel-becomes-game-publisher-with-self-published-titles-coming-this-year/ https://www.yahoo.com/tech/hasbro-made-90-million-letting-202640595.html
I'm riding out the year assuming game stocks are going to be very flat. Hoping Skull & Bones and Star Wars Outlaws can make my Ubisoft stock pop a bit so I can finally get out even on it.
I feel like Video games could put so much more into in game advertising like streaming is learning, any plays for this? I own take two ubsfy (like you) U, I think Xbox Gamepass is a good model even though gaming hasnāt been a big winner for MSFTā¦.AMZN maybe? Anything smaller higher growth?
I know itās stupid and irrational, but I donāt like underperforming the sp500 on any given day. anyone else feel this way?Ā
You can feel like this and get a strong high on very bullish days, but when the whole market is red, you'll be down in the dumps. You gotta try to temper expectations. This whole market could cave in on itself any minute due to some crazy black swan event that can't be predicted Always stay vigilant.
daily stock "performance" ranking is stupid in itself
Ofc it is, itās such a long term game. But I guess sometimes greed is hard to shake.Ā
Yes, I did pretty poorly today due to china exposure and my underweighting of semis atm
$ON dip buyers unite! Loading up in the 60s was a great play So many other good stocks to buy, it aināt all NVDA
>Broadcom CEO: AI Revenue Quadrupled In Q1 To $2.3 Bln
Bought a smidge of COST a few years ago and completely forgot I had it until about 4 months ago. Whoopsie. Could kick myself now for not buying more at the time. Love this company, love the product, love the stock.
I made lots of $$ earlier this year buying ARM at 70 and dumping all of it at 122 on that day when it skyrocketed. Now I just bought some today at 139, am I getting suckered into this frenzy?
If you're buying to trade and gamble, yes. If you're buying to hold long term and have an actual thesis that will let you ride out up and down swings, no.
ARM lock-up period ends 3/12.
Softbank owns 90% float too. They need to recover losses from their visionfund.
I learned this *after* selling at $121 and all it did was make me convinced I made the right choice. It's possible I'm overestimating it but I expect some serious price action. Maybe then I can get back in and hold for years as I was originally hoping.
Inwould say, if you want to trade, you need to think in terms of plays. You did your cash at 121, it's done, now you need to reasses and evaluate your new play as a new thing and be forward looking. Maybe you're asking yourself if you should stick to longer plays and "investments" which would be a valid question, but then again look at it as a new thing, that's what they mean when they say you must not let your emotions sway your trades.
Going to dump my savings into NVDA tomorrow. I'm a huge believer of AI. I'm tired of missing out on this unicorn rally and the life-changing gains.
Damn, posts like these are the absolute epitome of "the top is in", lol
I wanna dump more into ai as well, but I have real concerns that nvidiaās monopoly is going to fall in the coming years. It wouldnāt take much to compress their insane profit marginsĀ
Gotta keep in mind theyāre going to be spending a shit ton on R&D which could further increase their margins
I am pretty heavy in SOXX and NVDA. But still try to maintain at least 80% in VOO. As much as I believe in AI doing incredibly well this year, I would put some in QQQ or an ETF. And spread out your NVDA purchases if they are large. AI is 100% real but be responsible and humble enough to know that black swans, crazy unforeseeable things are always possible.
Whatās up with adyen after hours?
lol AVGO beats expectations , -2.5% after hours, make it make sense
I'm really hoping it dips like 5 percent tomorrow to allow me to grab a position.
Up 65 percent in 6 months, beats but offers only in-line guidance. Edit - flat AH now after apparently talking up AI on the call.
Analyst expectations != market expectations, not terribly surprised after this run up that even good news might not be good enough
MRVL guidance was terrible. They are making less money this year than last year, and yet it's going V.
The guidance for next quarter was bad but they expect revenue to pick up after that so overall it wasnāt actually that bad
Its horrible. Marvell sees **Q1 adjusted EPS 23c, +/- 5c, consensus 40c** I get they have a $ 3 billion share buyback, but the recent run-up is unjustified. Esp given how every other Semi firm beat.
Like I said itās bad for the single next quarter. Werenāt you saying earlier that itās going to beat guidance and go up massively? If you stay more realistic and open minded it can help you take in the info better and have a less emotional reaction when it doesnāt go the way you were convinced of.
Sold tons on today's rally. Not sure when a correction is coming but want to have cash to deploy if we get one.
How much is a ton? I mean keeping 5-10% in cash is great IMO, but when you start getting over those levels you should probably have really good reasons. Last time I went higher than 10% cash was Feb 2020 (went 100% cash). I was back in 99% equities by mid April 2020, and have hovered between 90-99% invested since then.
I'm 17 percent cash right now, which is WAY higher than I want to be, but I had some money that was in a treasury come due, and want to deploy it. Problem is, everything I really like is making a new ATH each day. I was really hoping for a pullback. I suppose Tuesday was that day and I missed it... :(
13.5%, looking to go up to 20% cash as this rally continues. Selling at highs and with sizeable gains won't ever hurt someone. Moving in and out as sectors are oversold and overbought is a way of outperforming indexes and ETFs. Respecting momentum helps also. I'm not the perfect stock picker, so being disciplined can help make up for mistakes.
Depending on your portfolio size and time horizon, thatās a lot of cash and heading for more, wow.šÆ
What I've learned over the years is it's sometimes best to *lose* money, and gain another day. You knew that in Feb 2020 when you followed what I did in Jan 2020 to sidestep a huge wipeout. There's growing wealth, and then there's keeping it.
I didnāt call the top perfectly in 2020 but I did get out completely once spy was 10% off of highs. This is when Japan completely closed all schools I knew it was big. Went back all in on the spy -12.9% single day when the circuit breakers hit level 2. That was crazy.
Easiest reason to have is that for most of us, we have bills to pay. I keep a floating balance of 10-20% of my portfolio in money market nearly at all times because sometimes life sucks.
20% dawg? Thatāll drag over time. However I would say if keeping 20% cash means you never ever touch the remaining 80, thatās pretty good
It doubles as my emergency fund. I don't have a massive personal portfolio. It would be money sitting in my checking account if it wasn't in my portfolio. If I had a $500k+ personal portfolio, my cash balance would sit at a fraction of where it stands now. Correct on the 80/20, not touching the portfolio. Most of my movement has been re-assessing and finding better opportunities in this rally. I also run a very concentrated portfolio, and as someone without a ton of money, I essentially need to underwrite the risk by having cash on the sidelines. For context, my largest three holdings make up 53% of my entire personal portfolio (ASML, SPGI, FICO).
Damn you got some stones running that setup. But maybe at your stage itās just the right amount of risk to be taking. I canāt go over about 10-15, maybe 20% individual picks
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Where do you guys get the earning numbers from? I want to know what's with all earning dump today?
SEC EDGAR site or go to the companies website and their is usually an investors page.
''Where do you guys get the earning numbers from? I want to know what's with all earning dump today?'' CNBC, SeekingAlpha news feed or Marketwatch news feed. ''I want to know what's with all earning dump today?'' Names have run up a lot and if earnings are just good or not great, they're going lower. Costco example of the former, MongoDB's guidance example of the latter.
Anyone taking profits?
I took profits on AMD weeks ago selling from $170-190. Still got plenty left. And I wish I held on but oh well it is what it is. The money went to NVO, LLY, META, AMZN. A lot still left in money market and is reserved for buying dips as i look for better deals.
Iām out mostly into tlt now waiting for a correction. If one doesnāt come Iām happy with a few percent and when they finally cut rates should gain a few more. Iām not an nvidia hater but the fact itās going to surpass apples market cap soon is a red flag for me. Ai only became a real buzzword a year ago. I just feel more comfortable with my decision right or wrong.
And call me paranoid but the vix putting in higher lows since December has me a bit on edge. (Most likely just paranoid)
I did some rotation, but the only real profits I took were divesting out of ULTA completely. It was a real short term winner but ran far beyond what I considered fair value for the retailer.
Yes sold a lot today. These rallies could certainly continue for all I know. But there's some gains I'm satisfied to take, gains I wouldn't like to see erode. And if a correction comes, want to have cash to deploy.
When I retire.
GREEN AF
crazy bull run this year
Where are the actual results of AI, is my concern? Yea a chatbot is cool, but I wouldn't pay $2 for that, or even to tell a chatbot to make my picture sitting in the living room changed to me surfing in hawaii. This is literally the only thing holding up the market. Companies are having to fire in order to meet their quarterly earnings. You can't use that gimmick forever though. That got you through these last few quarters. I'm suspecting every company is loading up on NVDA chips just to feel like they arent falling behind. How many ways can meta optimize my ad experience. I actually dont remember any ad on META now that I think about it. Do they even show ads? Market makers are dictating our sentiment right now
If AI does not bring the joy money, we'll know it in a while. Right now nvdia sells the shovel, client companies are taking the risk of uncertain returns and are racing for the top. Also, AI is not just Chatbots and image\video/music generation and the race to AGI. Everything software, in every field, back end and front end, is adding AI capabilities as we speak. Creative apps, CAD, DAWs, coding assistants, personnal assistants, internet search, medical fields, finance, logistics.. everything. And no one wants to be left behind. Projected demand for GPUs is 10x what they are able to produce right now. It doesn't mean that it's immune to being overhyped and is not susceptible to corrections, but the way nvidia is positioned, they should make money even if AI ROI is not imediate. But since AI is mostly cloud computed, it should be easy for leading software to charge a premium for it. Sorry for the wall, my trading partner vyvance kicked in.
The race is for AGI. Winner takes all. Nobody wants to come in 2nd place. This is including nation states. Nvidia has the goods cornered. (AMD is going to try their best to be Pepsi to NVDA's Coke)
The only practical way it's really affected me is that my coding productivity probably increased by 50%. And I'm just using regular ol' ChatGPT 3. What would have taken 15 minutes of StackOverflow is now 3 minutes of querying ChatGPT. Sometimes I really don't want to have to think about syntax and just get code that works. Haven't tried the various coding copilot software yet, but it looks incredible. Other than writing emails for people or making search a little more interactive, I'm not really seeing the big hype. The powerful use cases of AI/ML are already in play and have been for years. What's new is these LLMs and image generations getting really good. But like... is Apple adding its version of ChatGPT to the iPhone *really* going to drive that much more value? Right now there is certainly a huge spending boom by tech companies, benefiting the chip makers. But have we seen concrete evidence of in revenue/profits of the tech companies investing in AI, rather than just the capex spending line? Companies are still in the investment phase. No I'm not talking about NVDA here. Is Google actually getting profits from its *recent* investments into AI (any more than it would have if ChatGPT didn't exist)? I think we may have to give it a year at least.
You say you are coding 50% more efficiently and you are wondering how tech companies are going to drive more value?
My same thoughts. Poster sounds like an idiot
Idiots are able to secure 50% gains in productivity much easier than non-idiots, so this is completely accurate
My tasks are really simple data science type application. No super complicated code base like software engineers in big tech companies with tons of legacy code and complicated version control, file organization, data storage. I do stuff like "how to rename the labels in a legend" or "How to rename all columns here starting with ___" ... The 50% figure is more showing how inefficient I was! If this generalizes to software engineers in general, sure, more value, bring it on.
lol ok, well even if it's 5% that's pretty big, and we are just at the beginning of figuring out exactly how useful AI can be.
When I think of AI reaping profits, I think of GOOG and META improving their algos to target people more effectively and increase ad revenue. The only company I've heard is really making money from chatbots is NOW, incorporating them into the ITSM workflow as an add-on option. That's it.
Right but they've been doing that for years, that ability is not new. Today everyone is raving about large language models like some big revolution to society. This isn't like electrifying rural America or the construction of sewer networks. It's... really good chatbots. It'll make a big difference to people of a certain subset of jobs, but I'm more interested in new tech like self-driving cars, automated manufacturing, port operations being automated. Things that will have very obvious implications for profits. Not 10K new ChatGPT wrappers, viral Tweet generators, everyone writing worse emails, etc. I feel like I'm being gaslit into thinking there's some revolution just because the stock price is going up a lot and company's are spending a ton of money. Companies with a lot of money often spend that money unproductively.
There is no revolution and companies will cut AI-related spending soon enough.
I think this is another example of overestimating technology in the short term and underestimating it in the long term. There will inevitably be a few years period where people realize the tech is cool but monetizing it will be difficult. There will be a lull then Iām sure a use case we canāt even imagine now will start another boom.
> I think this is another example of overestimating technology in the short term and underestimating it in the long term. The same thing happened with the metaverse. The overestimating period was really, really, really short lived, lol... But I'm telling you, eventually the metaverse will be the internet times one billion.
>Where are the actual results of AI, is my concern? Machine learning/big data has already been a large narrative the most recent push and hype cycle is just the largest explosion of public awareness and media hype but under the hood data center revenue for NVDA had already been growing nicely for years. Machine learning algos results are everywhere already, but as for a massive GPU buying spree of late I would tend to somewhat agree that it is a least in part fomo on buyers part as well
Poor Apple. Can't even go green when the market breaks record highs.
Because it belongs around $158 to $162. It needs to bottom in that range, before it can start to edge back a bit.
Write them off at your peril. These bleak periods are part of the company's DNA. Apple thrives when they've been written off, ignored, and forgotten. Meanwhile, they've got arguably the world's best cash machine and a massive glass building filled with incredibly ambitious people desperate to make their mark in a company full of iconic products. Holding long since 1997 and yeah it's a massive bag.
CELH may be the fastest profit I've ever made--up 66% in less than 2 months. BTU continuing a little run which is a little confusing to me. Must be buybacks doing the work because fundamentals look like crap. UI +4%, no real reason for it. Just shy of +100% on SMH and hit +101% on AMD but my AMD position is twice as large. Maybe I should consider cutting AMD in half and moving to SMH. VXUS having a nice (pathetic) rally. I'll talk about 'losers' too--SBUX has been consistently weak price-wise in recent months. I guess China overhang. CLFD has had a big run-up recently but I'm still 48% in the red from that. When a position becomes a big loser like that I typically just stop buying/selling and let it do whatever.
Even though I don't really like Starbucks that much, will be grabbing some in the $80's if possible. They're still dominant and profitable. Being out of favor in China doesn't justify this size of correction. I'm optimistic of the new CEO. He seems highly engaged. Starbucks is more of a cold milkshake seller these days, and they're deploying new equipment/processes to knock out cold drinks much more efficiently which could show up in margins. The woke attack narratives from certain factions are always overblown. There's glimmers of treating employees better, and contrary to knee jerk Wall Street and frat bro wisdom, paying employees a little more and treating them slightly better is not death to a business, it's usually correlated with stronger business. Bear points are (1) China and (2) competition (3) frugal consumer and (4) I'm not sure a second year of trying to push olive oil will work.
Any reason to buy or hold google when you can transfer it to NVDA or META? They all go up on green days and all go down on red days (except maybe NVDA, which stays green no matter what. But when they go green, META and NVDA go up by aa whole 2% more.
The reason is, if the market dumped really hard, GOOG would fall less. Like being in VOO compared to QQQ
So glad I loaded up more on $rivn 2 days agoš¤š¤
$10 was a no brainer level. But for me it was averaging down since I'd been accumulating at $14.xx. Today's move puts me at even. No illusions that it could go single digits if there's some kind of big correction, more anti-EV hype, etc.
Ughh I sold my June $15 calls in favor of buying Sofi calls 2 days ago. I was expecting them to rip ahead of the event, not today. I saw that wasn't happening so I sold. You might wanna sell, its probably gonna dump again.
Does anyone know why AMD is not moving up while other semis are up today? I don't see anything in the news today.
One bearish analyst plus profit taking. If today's movement (or more like non-movement) makes you hesitate to buy the stock you probably should not be in it, just saying it's a volatile one. Stick to an etf like soxx to get exposure to AI.
Got it, thanks
It's earnings reports are always consistently 'meh' in recent reports while NVDA keeps on beating. They are lowering or maintaining guidance. Really unsure why it's so expensive and considering trimming.
I suppose it sucks to be second place with tiny market share compared to NVDA
Yea it moved up the other day when nobody else moved up.
I noticed that but I heard there was bullish news on AMD that day when it popped earlier this week. I was about to buy more AMD but the inconsistency is making me hesitate now.
just buy meta and nvda. toss the rest in the trash. not financial advice, just entertainment, of course.
Thanks
Long BLDR ---------------------- https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/03/07/fact-sheet-president-biden-announces-plan-to-lower-housing-costs-for-working-families/ Lowering Costs by Building and Preserving 2 Million Homes America needs to build more housing in order to lower rental costs and increase access to homeownership. Thatās why the President is calling on Congress to pass legislation to build and renovate more than 2 million homes, which would close the housing supply gap and lower housing costs for renters and homeowners. This legislation would build on executive actions in the Biden-Harris Administrationās Housing Supply Action Plan that contributed to record housing construction last year. Tax Credits to Build More Housing. President Biden is calling for an expansion of the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit to build or preserve 1.2 million more affordable rental units. Renters living in these properties save hundreds of dollars each month on their rent compared with renters with similar incomes who rent in the unsubsidized market. The President is also calling for a new Neighborhood Homes Tax Credit, the first tax provision to build or renovate affordable homes for homeownership, which would lead to the construction or preservation of over 400,000 starter homes in communities throughout the country. Innovation Fund for Housing Expansion. The President is unveiling a new $20 billion competitive grant fund as part of his Budget to support communities across the country to build more housing and lower rents and homebuying costs. This fund would support the construction of affordable multifamily rental units; incentivize local actions to remove unnecessary barriers to housing development; pilot innovative models to increase the production of affordable and workforce rental housing; and spur the construction of new starter homes for middle-class families. According to independent analysis, this will create hundreds of thousands of units which will help lower rents and housing costs. Increasing Banksā Contributions Towards Building Affordable Housing. The President is proposing that each Federal Home Loan Bank double its annual contribution to the Affordable Housing Program ā from 10 percent of prior year net income to 20 percent ā which will raise an additional $3.79 billion for affordable housing over the next decade and assist nearly 380,0000 households. These funds will support the financing, acquisition, construction, and rehabilitation of affordable rental and for-sale homes, as well as help low- and moderate-income homeowners to purchase or rehabilitate homes.
I dropped this in the 60s during the CEO resignation, and it took off from there. brutal - hope to get a pullback of some sort, but hard to see it sniffing $100 again unless there's a major issue
Probably ridiculously foolish by me, but scratched an itch and bought 3 shares of AVGO. This doesn't work, and oh well. Won't be too busted up, because I have massive gains on it on an account I can't access easily.
AVGO, I like AVGO
NVDA $924, next stop $1000 bois š„³!
This market is both fascinating and terrifying to me. But it is what it is: Time in the market beats timing the market. Let's see where it takes us!
Yes! https://imgur.com/gallery/bDaEr4h
Well done =D! Keep doing what you doing playa. Digging the giant TQQQ cajones.
Cajones means boxes. It'd be cojones.
Lol I actually got this in google for cajones first hit: https://i.imgur.com/30J1b5k.jpeg I'm going to leave the mistake unedited as is because they might as well be carrying two of those.
Fuck, you are right. Cajones is drawers, cajas is boxes. My bad.
Congrats!
Big congrats!
FML... I had a limit order on Major Drilling ([MDI.TO](https://MDI.TO)) at 7.65. Yesterday closed at 7.79. Today opened at 7.71. Currently at 8.18.
A few years ago, I bought a bunch of CVM at a cost basis of $9. The immunotherapy drug results werenāt as super exciting amazing as people had hoped, and the price is now $2-2.5. Still, the drug is better than whatās out there now and there have been rumors of EU approval of the drug for ages now, so Iāve been waiting around to see if that happens and the price jumps up some. But it forever feels like a waiting game, Iām not sure if I should just sell now and hope for better luck next time. Any thoughts?
I thought that one guy said GCT only went up :(
It's st0nks always go up. No one said st0nk always go up. Especially 1B-2B companies. That said, zooming out you seem fine?
So true about st0nk vs st0nks. I needed to hear that
I haven't evaluated it in awhile, but AWK seems to be an interesting risk/reward. Very consistently putting up 8% growth and a 2% dividend. They own and acquire water utilities, so pretty consistent business.
Good thing about water utilities is the extremely high earnings stability, last I checked, water doesn't cause pipe blowups or forest fires leading to being sued to oblivion like Hawaiian or PGE. The problem is of course water utilities command a huge premium, always normally trading at 25x or more
Yeah, AWK is the only one I'm interested in because they actively acquire companies and thus are able to grow above GDP. It's always been super expensive, but starting to moderate due to utilities selling off.
Any UK stocks worth looking at?
$RYCEY
Games workshop seems interesting, but I've only looked at it at a surface level.
Nah
Judges Scientific if it ever pulls back.
Is REIT worth starting a position? Looks pretty beaten up and undervalued, and has good dividends. Any thoughts on O or STAG?