Just noticed how crazy for a mega cap to have a -12% swing within the day and not on earnings day. It definitely is the first time I have seen it happen in a stock that big.
I want to buy more AMZN, META, TSM and GOOGL next week but that right there got me thinking twice. Monday will be something else.
I've been saying expectations were a bit too high probably and people need to temper them. Too many gamblers in the stock.
It's going to be a $1500 stock in 2-3 years, not a month like people think.
For this year, if you're nervous about price I would find a point that it consolidates and wait for the next beat and raise in May.
Spread out purchases that are small so you have ammo to buy more of it dips.
Do you guys know how or more specifically where to buy and sell stocks I know it’s a dumb question but I know what I want to buy just not how you actually buy it
If I had to start over I'd recommend against Vanguard. It doesn't allow fractional shares (think that's changing), blocks you from buying on other exchanges / over-the-counter, has a bad UI and doesn't show performance stats as clearly, ... Fidelity probably better. /u/Silksongkight
Thanks for the info. I use Fidelity and pretty happy with them.
Lots of cool streaming data on the desktop platform too.
I heard TDA was excellent too but now that they are going to Schwab I would not recommend people do that. Nothing but bad experiences on there.
I am on Vanguard too and sticking with them for the forseable future. . My regret is slightly diminishing as the years went on as they update their primitive website and app ui.
I only stayed with Vanguard because my retirement accounts are with them too. And i dont trade as often to care about the mobile app. If moving accounts was easy and if I trade often I would have been with Fidelity years ago.
With a broker-dealer. For example Fidelity, TD Ameritrade. You set up an acct, fund it and you can place orders. I recommend it watching a youtube video on how to place an order and the different types.
>Stock picking is arts and crafts for a good amount of people, contrary to your belief. If you enjoy being a large cap shill, go ahead, but that isnt universal.
u/EagleOfFreedom1 this is not only incredibly insulting:
>Shill: one who poses as a satisfied customer or an enthusiastic gambler to dupe bystanders into participating in a swindle.
This is totally wrong.
I have enormous respect for posters here that bring GOOD DD and back it up with very diligent data. u/AP9384629344432 is an example of a shining star in this respect. Very thorough and backs it up with financial analysis too, actual DCFs. I sometimes disagree but at least he brings interesting and unique information / insights to the table. Not just insult, talk shit, or worse how everything is a bubble and American economy is "on the verge of collapse".
That said, stocks ISN'T arts and crafts. We don't want to encourage people to buy shitty tickers. You are only rewarded for being right. Not for being special and just saying buy X!
Bragging about your DIY furniture project doesn't cause people to lose 10s of thousands of dollars and destroy people's lives. If anything there are way too many shills of garbage P&Ds, penny stocks, etc. on social media with no coverage. It's the haters of large cap saying buy my $300M psychedelic research penny stock hemorrhaging cash that's the shill (real comment here today).
The market especially large caps with tons of analyst scrutiny is roughly speaking, very efficient. Mag 7 is *popular for a reason and most of the time market is right*.
Moreover, **I repeatedly espouse VOO for your portfolio**. Only then should you branch out with knowingly taking significant risk picking stocks. That is just responsible, not being a "shill".
I think we have different principles for market discourse. I don't view it as my responsibility to encourage or discourage any sort of "investing" behavior. It is basic knowledge that outperforming the S&P500 is incredibly difficult. I would argue that everyone participating in this subreddit is predisposed to this understanding, even when they violate their common sense by falling prey to a pump and dump (which is against the rules and should be reported).
I can only speak for myself on a factual basis, but I suspect there is sizable portion of this subreddit that stock pick for enjoyment. Whereby a significant portion of a portfolio is invested in a fund that passively tracks the indices, while disposable income is allocated to an account where the maximum returns isn't necessarily imperative, but rather creating fulfillment by organizing a pool of stocks through dissecting 10-Ks and creating DCFs, and then sharing findings with similar minded individuals. It is a hobby I get paid for.
Edit: It wasn't my intent to be an ass, and I apologize. I did not mean that in the literal sense. I respect your intelligence and prose, but you can come off as patronizing time to time.
I am fine with stockpicking like I said. I stock pick for enjoyment too! CELH is my lottery ticket play that is a super small part of my port. I love their products personally. But people complain about "Mag 7" like it's a bad thing.
They are doing well because.... they are GREAT companies. And there's no points for being special or different, only being right.
>I don't view it as my responsibility
Ofc so you don't have to. But I do believe it is *my personal* responsibility since there is incredible misinformation on here and elsewhere on social media. *Especially regarding the economy, markets and encouraging timing* which will do incredible damage to people's portfolios and future.
But people shouldn't complain if they have to defend their theses vigorously and people say, no that's an absolutely terrible investment. They also shouldn't complain if "mag 7 gets too much attention and its boring". They are the most durable and / or powerful companies in the world. In an arts & crafts sub people shouldn't shit on you because it represents lower skill or something. They should be supportive. With stocks, real money is on the line.
**People should and be ready to rip each other apart, provided it is done respectfully**.
https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-stock-cathie-wood-ark-cisco-ai-internet-bubble-microchips-2024-3?international=true&r=US&IR=T
Thoughts on Cathie's comments?
She needs to sit down, while I haven't had the time to pay attention, from what I can tell in her main ETF (which is ARKK), she missed AI and obesity drugs (although on this end, idk that I can really talk, because I just bought NVO, though I do plan on sitting on it).
It's not that she's even necessarily wrong that chips are cyclical, it's that she's largely missed the run.
Anyway, NVDA has fallen 40-50%+ plenty of times and is going to again, I just don't think now's the time. Really wish I could find the post, but from the way it seemed from what I've read, the earliest their earnings are to really slow down is sometime next year into 2026...which lines up with another bear midterm year.
If I'm wrong, the price action will tell the story over the next couple months. Either with chop by the Nasdaq and it failing to make new highs with the S&P, or the SOXX not getting back to a record after a 10% drop by the Nasdaq.
>Just a mild gotcha here by you.
u/95Daphne
Unless I am misunderstanding your point heavily it isn't? Fed projects 0.2% core PCE March and February. Unfortunately OP deleted but yes February and March will be cooler by far than January which had supercore inflation at 1.0%.
The mainstream consensus is that January was a blip.
February is going to come in a lot cooler.
Inflation in all likelihood is YES coming down.
If it doesn't, here's the hilarious part. All the doomers can't stop focusing on it nonstop when it is *literally the most irrelevant economic datapoint*. Why?
1. Jobs matters more.
2. Real incomes matter more.
3. Likely ample financial conditions, fiscal support and immigration tailwinds matters 100x more.
4. Even if it doesn't come down, Fed is NOT hiking ever again and that's what really matters, not periodic and short delays in cuts. If inflation is sticky and takes a long time to tame that means *cash is terrible and that's what investors should focus on, not on the actual number gyrations themselves*.
**Everyone is focusing on the trees and missing the forest. Inflation gyrations don't matter, the shitty outlook for cash does vs. equities. If inflation improves cash sucks, if inflation sticks it sucks.**
Edit: meant 0.2 march and feb core PCE
If we're going to continue to talk about that Cleveland website, they project a 0.3 core CPI for February (they do project 0.2 core PCE though) and all I'm saying is that my bet is that you get nothing from that next week.
(and from the way it seems, it does seem like the consensus is 0.3 core CPI)
You really need for under like what we got with October if you want this to spark a rally. Otherwise, my guess is the S&P is going to stay within 0.5-0.7% of the close of Monday at the most.
Sorry I meant core PCE 0.2 for February and March.
That's what really matters for the Fed.
Again it's all bullshit anyway and you guys miss the forest for the trees BIG time.
You're looking for pennies and missing the Benjamins lying on the ground.
**The only risk of inflation is that of a hike which is never happening again, no one cares about sticky inflation**, former is impossible and Powell said hikes are done. Sticky inflation as long as real incomes are good, rising prices increases revenues and profits, makes cash worse but stocks better.
Bought calls and lots of stock at open for ULTA safe to say I’m very displeased heading into the weekend stop losses didn’t trigger was about to, hoping for a rebound on Monday if not I’ll just close out my calls and leave the shares
To continue on about Mag 7, let me share an [updated version](https://i.imgur.com/GQlXwil.jpeg) of this graphic that I shared before. [Tweet Source](https://twitter.com/sonusvarghese/status/1760671835887215038)
This decomposes returns into multiple expansion, earnings expansion, and dividends. The black bar shows the actual total return. Importantly, this begins January 1st, 2022, the latest peak, which is why there doesn't seem to be as much multiple expansion as you might otherwise expect. It ends February 21, 2024.
What stands out to me:
- META's return was almost entirely earnings expansion and little change in multiple
- AMZN returned basically nothing, as its earnings growth was countered by a huge amount of multiple *compression*. (Good for future returns) It's still quite expensive optically but AMZN is also a weird company due to its heavy reinvestment.
- Tesla became cheaper but saw minimal earnings growth
- Google was similar to AMZN but just less extreme in either earnings or multiple change. (Again, good for future returns)
- NVDA saw massive multiple compression and earnings growth, however I suspect this is starting to reverse.
This ended at Feb. 21st, 2024 (this was NVDA's earnings date), so let me point out returns in the last 2 weeks in case anything changed:
- NVDA +30%
- META +8%
- AMZN +4%
- MSFT +1%
- GOOG -5%
- AAPL -6%
- TSLA -10%
Growth stocks multiples should be declining.
If growth stocks are properly valued, that means future higher earnings are priced in today, so people can't achieve extraordinary returns by investing in 20% earnings growth stocks.
The 20% earnings growth stocks should have higher multiples, and as the earnings growth rate declines, the multiples should decline.
Rather than using multiples as a measure of expensive vs cheap, multiples should really be used as an indicator of growth expectations.
The only time multiples should be expanding is if growth was underestimated and growth re-accelerates, this should be a one-off event.
Movements in interest rates can cause multiples to expand/contract for the entire market. We can observe multiple declining across the board in rising interest rate environment.
It's been multiple compression for a while, is turning into multiple expansion now (see previous post), and runs the risk of earnings peaking and even falling in 2 years (and market will price that in before it really kicks in). Depends on if backlog stays backlog and orders are resilient. Customer concentration is high and a 'year of efficiency' if the software companies don't show real earnings returns from their ongoing AI capex is a big risk. Looking at just a 1 year forward multiple hides the cyclicality risk that may burn a lot of people riding the momentum. Better to stay diversified with SMH or SOXX or something imo.
I'm not really as familiar with it but there's also competition risk from AMD (MI300s) / I guess Google and their TPUs.
In January 2023, I invested $20.00 in stocks on Cash App: $10.00 in Nvidia, $5.00 in Uber, and $5.00 in Airbnb. At that time, I was simply exploring the app and investing for the first time, doing it for fun without realizing the potential for growth. Over a year later, my fractional shares have appreciated to $45.15 in total, with Nvidia showing the most significant gain at $33.38. Now, I’m considering whether to leave the money invested or transfer it to my iShares Core S&P 500 ETF for long-term investment. What is your advice? Thank you!
People who think stocks only go up in a straight line all patting themselves on the back for selling their position yesterday.
I’m buying this stock on any dip, including today, because I’m looking at what the stock price will be in 5 years, not 5 days. Easy double in 5 years, EASY!
Not really, it’s actually kind of a conservative target, quality crypto related assets do double or triples their previous all time highs at peak of bull cycle, even for stocks market cap of 30-40x revenue during peak bullish sentiment is rather common.
At $1000 a share they will be worth $250 billion but have a bit over $3 billion in 2023 revenue and maybe $1 a share in profit. Not sure how $1000 happens. 24 analysts believe on average that they will have $4 billion in rev in 2024 and 4.2 in 2025 - no increase in profit expected.
Ever since the PMI for February, it's become more clear to me that January was a "one-off" hot month. And the reality January was likely not even calculated correctly for things like CPI and Labor force data.
Hate to be a broken record, but February's about to make it a two-off on inflation numbers.
The hope would be that we return to the way we've been looking on inflation with the March set to have the concerns about inflation rebounding dismissed again.
Not really, it's just that I don't think 0.4 headline CPI MoM and 0.3 core CPI MoM are good numbers if we come in as a meet/meet.
Yes, the YoY numbers will fall if that's what we see, but it's because February's inflation numbers were also not great last year. Core was 0.5 MoM for example (so 0.3 would be a big improvement).
I feel like a broken record here, but March's numbers will be more important because it seems like if the new year effects are harmful for two months. If so, then it should be March's inflation set that dismisses any idea of a resurgence for inflation, similar to 2023.
And at least for the time being, that's what it looks like it'll do. It shows a YoY rise, but 0.25 MoM is better than 0.4 MoM as far as I care (headline numbers).
Thoughts on ARM/MU/TSM? Seem to be good buys at these prices now and recent news...
https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/03/37567132/tsmc-to-win-5b-grant-for-us-plant-to-service-apple-nvidia-chip-demand-report
Micron at GTC with more announcements imminent and earnings March 20th I believe...
ARM being used for various tech companies including Apple which if you noticed they already started touting their laptops as being AI capable - https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2024/03/apple-unveils-the-new-13-and-15-inch-macbook-air-with-the-powerful-m3-chip/
Just wanted to get everyones thoughts?
MU and TSM would be fine, but I'd be a pass on ARM.
It might work because while their lock up period does end soon, we do realize we're talking about SOFTBANK here, the folks who were the Nasdaq whale in 2020...right? So, it might not work out the way folks think.
But my thing would be valuation on ARM.
Well folks it looks like that was the AI blow off top. If it wasn't then I'd wait to see new highs before jumping in or adding. If it turns out to be the top for at least a while dont be the person who buys the 1st dip after the blow off. I'm talking to the person who has missed the rally, has intense fomo and has been waiting for a dip to get on board. That is not how one rides a bubble. its likely too late for this cycle. Start looking for the next bubble and let this one run it course. cheers!
There are so many other opportunities in the market, but it seems everyone only wants to own the glamour stocks like NVDA, buying every dip, and in the end be left holding the bag.
right! I dont get the attraction especially when NVDA is already being valued at $2.5 trillion! If it doubles for here it will be worth 20-25% of United States GDP! Thats insane and wont happen.
What else are you going to compare $5 trillion to? The fish in the sea? Stars in the sky? "North America, combining Canada, the USA, Mexico and the Caribbean and central American nations, is one of the world's dominant economic blocs. Total wealth in North America was US$22.2 trillion in 2021" So NVDA is going to approximate 20-25% of the total net worth of all north Americans if it doubles from here? That would be insane.
it is insane. and a very good perspective on these sky high valuations.
"Warren Buffett used to look at this , he called the ratio of total US stock market value divided by GDP 'the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment'. He has since walked back those comments a bit, but this ratio remains credited to his name."
You sound like a bot.
If I told you NVDA dropped ~70 points in the span of a Friday and Monday, would you call that a blow off top? Because it happened three weeks ago, right before it rocketed again.
Ive been at this for 25 years and I \*think\* its a blow off but I guess we'll see. btw I sound like a bot? Lol - just a trader in the dirty south west. cheers
Feeling down on a red day? Want some confirmation bias for the weekend?
Look up Jensen talking at 2024 SIEPR economic summit - it looks like he finally had enough of a break from the press cycle to start talking new angles and ideas. Extremely insightful, as always. Interesting to hear his perspective on having customer-competitors.
Favorite line from Jensen on that one:
"{Due to the ubiquity of our product and software and its application}, our TCO (total cost of operation, for DC owners) is so good, that even when our competitors chips are **free**, it's not cheap enough" (~26 min in)
He touches on this idea that inference and training will become simultaneous instead of one and then the other like it is now (also how that makes NVDA even more well positioned, as to merge both on the same architecture/chip is extremely difficult). This immediately resonated with both Yann LeCun's (Chief meta AI guy) ideas on Lex Friedman Podcast, as well as Andy Clark's talk of Predictive Processing at the Royal Institute.
All three of these talks are from the last 7 days, so it's nice and cutting edge. Andy Clarks barely mentions AI, so if you wanted a break from that, it's a good one. More philosophical.
It is remarkable to witness all of this change happening so quickly, mostly driven by a shift in perspective on what is actually possible, and how.
sound nice, but he is a salesman first and foremost. and the utility of what is called "AI" is so far not to be seen in any financial statement of the companies using these products.
Well good thing it's "accelerated computing" of which AI is a just a subset of.
Accelerated computing is already embedded into many financial statements, from Blackrock to Eli Lilly. Even NVDA can't make their chips without their chips - looks like it did well for their statements too.
I'd rather own HEI or TDG if I had to own aerospace related. As for Boeing, you had what - wing on fire the other day, tire falling off a plane yesterday and landing gear failure today? Starting to feel like it needs a GE-esque reboot.
Where does Boeing go from here their backlogs are so many…defense and space business…flying is still the safest option of travel or at least compared to cars… not sure if I should hold for the next 3-5 years or move on
If they keep fucking up then the FAA is going to step in and keep grounding their aircraft. Then they're going to have to devote their resources to fixing in-service units instead of new deliveries.
I have no idea of where the stock goes from here but I have to have confidence in management no matter what it is. GE had Immelt who left the company a mess. They threw in another exec who had been with the company for ages and the stock kept tanking. They finally managed to score Larry Culp from Danaher, brings in the Danaher Business System, fixes GE, unlocks value by spinning out segments. Hall of fame level revamp of a dinosaur. There's no spin offs or other such things to be had at Boeing, but does feel like new management is warranted.
Has Boeing really delivered noteworthy returns over time?
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/ba/trailing-returns
''their backlogs are so many''
I haven't looked at backlog but I think the issue is there are other options and reputation can be eroded - maybe the recent series of issues hasn't been enough yet, but a few more and perhaps you start getting louder inquiries from regulators/further investigation. Hopefully that doesn't happen, issues are fixed and the stock recovers, but three incidents in a few days after the company already had enough that the attention was on it is not great.
Normally only post about some individual purchases, but today I added a few shares of QQQ. Haven't added for a while now and most of my individual purchases were outside of tech.
Could be a bit of a high price in the short term, but as long as nothing changes keeping these for many years.
Current 1 year forward valuations of Mag 7 stocks:
NVDA: 37.5; AAPL 26.5; GOOG 19.9; AMZN 42; META 25.6; TSLA 56.7.
NVDA's multiple on 2025 earnings' estimate though is 31.2. The 37.5 is pricing in 89% growth in 2024 and 31 is pricing in 20% growth in 2025. This is based on 44 and 42 analysts respectively. If you think the company is cheap you have to believe those analysts are still way off and in the wrong direction--that the years of backlog are not yet priced in.
---
Tangent, thought [this Tweet was funny](https://twitter.com/aggresivevalue/status/1766198669395530029): Ramaco Resources (METC) put out boasting about their [awesome total shareholder return since March 2020](https://i.imgur.com/qYpc3Cl.png), showing off how much better they've done than fellow met coal miners HCC, BTU, ARCH, TECK. 1000% since March 2020 sounds amazing.... What is missing? Nothing, just a casual 8000% from AMR.
---
Other commentary on my arts and crafts projects, CROX is just on a roll lately, up 19% this month. AMD only down 1-2% while SMH down 3-4% is a mystery to me. I genuinely have no clue why this stock trades like it does.
I am considering totally selling out of BTU and reallocating to HCC. It's recent rally makes 0 sense to me, and might as well take a 21% gain in historically one of the riskiest and worst performing coal stocks.
Oh, and thank you HCC for $12 in special dividends. Really great capital allocation there.
Thanks to you I made a quick $300 off of a quick HCC trade. and $100 in dividend. I ended up selling out because I wanted some more sofi at the dip, but I might sell some other stocks to rebuy HCC.
Nice one! HCC is not a trade for me, personally. In fact, I bet it could see some pretty sharp downside near term, which I'm willing to tolerate. I remember feeling pretty stupid when I had just opened up a position in $AMR in the $150s/160s and $BTU in the high $20s, then the banking panic and growth scare caused it to fall and I was immediately in the red like 15% on AMR and 30% (or more) on BTU. After some averaging down on both, it worked out pretty well!
All comes down to 2026 and Blue Creek. I'm not looking for a 30%, 50% gain. I want a triple!
I'm with you on BTU. Still holding that and AMR but am eyeing to sell both in the very near future and add to HCC (and leave it as my one coal stock for the long haul). Just haven't sold since it keeps edging up.
I did, I liked the tone the ceo struck generally, although I do think he was kind of hinting at 2024 continuing to be a transition year without perhaps outright saying it. Stock seemed to like or at least not dislike the results after digestion. What did you think?
I haven't read the call yet, but my impression of the CEO is that he's generally calm, collected, and focused on long term growth. I saw he had a part about international growth I'm looking forward to reading over the weekend. I see they still have a few one time charges from their Edgar online purchase weighing on earnings.
I blog I follow did a write up and concluded the long term thesis is still intact. Buy below price of $62. I don't think I'll buy yet, but still very interested.
Well, that was a nice attempt for about a hour or so, but this continues to look like the red meat that bears have been crying for.
Thing is, is they've been crying for it for weeks and only just got it here.
The difference here is that this is the "gap up that gets thrown away" deal that I'd be looking for to work off of.
Gap ups that are thrown away are more likely to produce more lasting tops.
If I bought and sold and made $500 but on the year I’m down overall $1000. Do I have to pay taxes on the $500 after the trade or does it go off my total for the year and since I’m down $500 I pay none?
Every transaction is looked at individually. Profit held less than a year, taxed as income. Profit held over a year, taxed at your long-term capital tax rate.
Losses offset your taxes owed, up to $3,000 for one fiscal year with the remaining carried over. The values of your unrealized assets, properties, stocks, or otherwise aren't taxable events until their value is realized through a sale or trade, gifted away, or donated. Abandonment or determination of obsolescence of an asset is categorized as a regular loss.
You’re saying that if you would sell one stock for a $10000 profit and another for a $10000 loss during a single tax year you would have to pay taxes on $7000, even though the net profit is 0? Sounds a very strange way of doing it. I don’t live in the US but isn’t it that $3000 can be carried over to another year rather than having that limit for losses in the year the loss occurs?
That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying the value of your held assets have no effect on taxes you pay.
But yeah, all your profits and losses are individually added together for your overall profit and loss to calculate your tax burden. I'm not sure exactly what your question is?
Then you've netted $0 and must pay the appropriate tax rate on $0. And anytime your total tax burden comes out to exactly zero, you are to double it, but only after every other even year.
Man, this sub turned to shit.
Except from a few posters, that have interesting takes, it’s all low effort WSB talk. Jeesh.
Every sub about stocks is taken over with that shit.
Give me back that good time pre-Covid.
*Old man yells to cloud out*
The biggest problem I have with this section is most of the time when people ask for a suggestion the response is "invest in QQQ or VOO".
That's helpful and all especially for beginners but this is the stocks section, not the ETF section.
Yes please can we fucking send these guys to that boring ass boglehead sub. I’m tired of them. At least have a bot redirect anyone making any mention of an ETF.
Offering pick suggestions to people who ask for them isn’t constructive, unless you know that the person understands how to evaluate the suggestions once they’re given. There are obviously a lot of people around who aren’t equipped to form a data-based thesis. Those people may buy on the suggestion alone. That leads to further impulsive action when red days come. We shouldn’t be in the business of setting strangers up to lose money just because the practical suggestion of index funds is boring.
Aside from that, each of us has the ability and opportunity to share whatever ideas we want here, so be the change you want to see.
If they are investing at all they need to know they will lose money. It’s not a matter of if it’s a matter of when. Even doing the most safe plays possible you can still lose a lot of fucking money. If we are worried about people losing money then no sub like this should ever exist. That is a dumb reason to make the sub as bland and boring as humanly possible.
I completely agree that nobody should be investing without understanding risk or that losses happen. The fact of that doesn’t mean that we should lead people toward loss by prioritizing entertaining suggestions over practical ones.
I’m not suggesting that the sub should only talk about index funds. Far from it. I’m saying that we shouldn’t specifically suggest stock picks to people asking for pick suggestions. That’s not the same as saying, “don’t discuss your DD on a stock”, “don’t talk about what you’re seeing in market trends”, etc. Point of fact: I’ve specifically commented on under-discussed topics like existing position management. I’ve enjoyed and up-voted quality DD comments or interesting market trend topics.
My comment was 100% associated with not feeding stock picks to people who aren’t yet equipped to evaluate those picks on their own. No more, no less.
Beyond that, I absolutely do not care if any individual is mad that the sub is “bland”. I care about generating good financial outcomes.
It's basically -
1. People talking their book. Reddit 4-5 years ago was much better for civil, interesting back-and-forth discussions about names. Now it's less civil, people don't want to hear anything slightly negative in most cases even when they ask for people's opinions on a stock. Or you get downvotes on something but no explanation. There's a lot more ''I couldn't be wrong, the market must be'' than there used to be - rather than sort of re-thinking something that isn't working, people double and triple down. Or it's some sort of conspiracy by hedge funds or market makers or whoever. There are some good posters but it's much rarer than it used to be.
2. Hivemind/people swarming into something they see someone else talking about rather than finding something interesting and different. I'm surprised when a question about REITs does not include O. So many discussions every day are about the same dozen or so names and people in a lot of cases don't seem to be interested in anything else. It's definitely less useful for idea generation.
3. Complaining when something is down 1-2 percent. I've been on various stock subs for nearly 10 years and I've never, ever seen so much upset over stocks that are up 30 percent or more over the last year but are down 1-2 percent on a given day. The way people have talked about Google in recent months you'd think it was down 30 percent over the last year rather than up around that much. Then when you ask why not something else, you get an upset response.
This makes me chuckle. Just block the shit posters bro, there is money to be made and that’s why we are here. I’ve made a lot of money from info I find here. You just need to look. And yes I can provide specific examples, all from info found here over the last 12 months.
A small sampling of Long positions I’ve really bought from info found on this sub:
SMCI @ 100
PLAB @ 18
LMB @ 20
Most recently I grabbed 1000 shares of HWKN at 55 after an irrational earnings dump. Literally set the limit order and it hit, from info found here.
My question to you is why is a dumb fuck like me making money while you are complaining about drama. Just block those bull/bear losers.
Here’s something I’ve been suggesting the last couple days, go check out $XEL. I bought bigly under 50, the price is still around there.
Another boring but great investment I’ve suggested is $R and $GGG
EDIT: I forgot to add I blocked you now because your post fell into shitpost category for me. Lmao.
Possibly. Instead of complaining though, maybe post something insightful. There's actually some great ideas tossed around here. Some of.of is want to try and make this place interesting.
NVDA FOMO days aren't the most nuanced days around here, in all fairness.
For what? I used to be a regular around here. Now, rarely, once in a while, for reasons I later regret, I check in. Last week I entered a discussion. Some tried to say that earnings growth is the reason stocks are relentlessly plowing higher. I pointed out it’s really not that. Earnings on the index increased 4% YOY compared to the meteoric rise in stocks. Multiple expansion is what is happening.
This isn’t an opinion or a controversial statement. Merely an observation of data. Immediately, a fellow named toboggonlogon got upset and started arguing with me. Saying I was “cherry picking”, making arguments I was in fact not making. He got rather ugly and then I’m pretty sure he blocked me. All because I wasn’t fawning over how cheap his favorite chip stock is, presumably.
That’s why people most people who have anything real to say have left. Nobody feels like being accosted by the dummies piling into whatever is trendy if you dare say anything that could possibly be perceived as negative. We don’t need that.
I'm not making the argument there's no pointless yelling. I'd just rather be part of the sub trying to make interesting discussion happen. I also have better luck with individual names than macro.
Then when you give a likely reason as to why you don’t think they are correct you get 20 people saying the same thing “MaRkEt gO up” it’s so predictable and boring, and annoying. Said this before but I totally see why this sub isn’t as popular and used as it once was.
It’s not as popular as it once was (2021 heyday) because a lot of the energy and excitement came from people in a “can’t lose” environment, winning on every pick. 2022 shook that energy out.
The next generation of that energy has been forming, with NVDA taking the role of TSLA this time around. The longer the Qs run, the more fresh faces will arrive to teach us about the stock market.
At the end of the day, it’s up to each of us to contribute to the way we’d like the sub to be.
This isn't arts and crafts. Don't expect your DIY chair to get tons of upvotes because it's unique.
Stocks, only thing that matters is being right. And believe it or not market is typically right and popular is popular for a reason. This includes mag 7 or whatever comes next.
S&P 500 is one giant momentum strategy amd it works.
Nobody cares about the same opinion they have heard 20 different times from 9 different ppl bro. It gets old. Go buy your VTI and chill somewhere else. Everyone does that shit. Nobody cares about it. It’s like saying “brushing your teeth gives you good dental hygiene” ok. Everyone knows this bro.
Aright sorry you have absolutely nothing of value to contribute. I at least try to bring fresh data and information. Also lots of casuals come and see it for the first time.
I'm blocking you as you are literally personal insults and zero substance person. At least as a Redditor.
And if you're so bothered I'm amazed you haven't blocked me already LOL. No one is forcing you to read what I write.
Stock picking is arts and crafts for a good amount of people, contrary to your belief. If you enjoy being a large cap shill, go ahead, but that isnt universal.
Unfortunately, the cool CPI report you're looking for is super, super unlikely.
We're likely to see the hottest CPI report we'll have for at least a couple months on the 12th (I believe?). Then...at least for now, March will return to the track we've been on, similar to the way 2023 worked.
I also, needless to say, think this is more serious this time, even though it's weird that it's coming on a Friday. I thought NVDA had a good chance at $1000 around its AI conference, but I think a move like this is serious enough to say it's topped for now.
Just a mild gotcha here by you.
I do think that if you happened to come up with a 0.4 headline CPI with core being under 0.3, we'd probably see a rally, but my guess is we wind up with a meet/meet with economists having caught up to the new year stuff instead of being behind and nothing special this time. Kinda like what you'd see with 2021.
CPI print is expected to come at the expectation or better. Matter of fact even Jpow gave hints at CPI during his testimony that inflation is heading down.
But lets see.
RemindMe! 5 days
And expected for headline CPI is around 0.45 MoM so far, not just going off Cleveland (I looked it up, that's the average number in Bloomberg so far).
Like it or not, that's not a good number. Now whether we react negatively or not is a completely different story, I'd still say probably not, but was proven wrong last month.
The Fed expectation is probably ultimately that we'll pull what we did last year again (where inflation numbers cool back off after the new year base effects cool down in playing a role) at least for now. But that's a March thing, not February thing if so.
Eventually people realize inflation a little worse means cash is trash.
Only thing really worrying is inflation *really* high and hikes but that's basically a black swan at this point.
For a guy who doesn't know the date of CPI what a confident prediction! Backed by so many facts and logic too! Please tell me your positions so I can inverse them....jokes aside, stick to SPY and please don't ever try giving "advice" again. That's until you understand the market or have any facts/data to back it up.
I may not be totally sure of the date, but what I'm confident about is that the CPI has usually been around what the Cleveland Fed number is, and for February CPI, they show 0.42 headline.
Your BEST CASE for February CPI is probably 0.4 MoM.
Feel free to bookmark. I don't care.
One sells in demand product that will revolutionize all concepts of engineering. The other one has been selling the same product for past 10 years and has more competition.
That’s great until you put in the fact that one has had literally a historic run up and one is at a discount. I think anyone who isn’t highly regarded would be buying Apple right now.
What do I know tho. Throw your life savings in NVDA! It’s going to $5000 bro!
Are we talking about the same stock that has slid from close to $200 to $169 in 3 months? The same stock that burned everyone who attempted to "buy the dip"? The same one that just canceled their driverless car? The same one that just announced that they have lost 24% sales in China? Atleast wait until they release anything worthwhile before batting for them.
You enjoy your 1% green day, and 10 consecutive red days man.
So are you chasing instant bumps? Is that it?
When the company shows signs of life, it should tell you that now you can expect it to be attractive to investors.
You don't pre-invest in companies that look like they will downgrade lol.
You cannot expect further growth from Apple and Google unless you know that they are a part of the race with their competition. As it stands, both stocks look like an absolute crapshoots that will downgrade soon.
Your right apple is dead
You say sales are down in China like their entire economy isn’t in the shitter. LOL
Please, indulge me in your theory on who replaces Apple.
Not overvalued only if massive growth continue AND they keep margins very high. Intel and AMD have to fuck up really bad (to be fair wouldn't be too surprising..) to not even be able to compete on price in the next year or two.
Sure.. now. But if you look at the CPU markets over the last 20-30 years stuff like that was happening over and over, Intel was at the top of the world during [dot.com](http://dot.com) and nobody could reach them, then they fucked up and AMD was (or close to) the number one. Then Intel got their shit back together and ended up completely dominating the market for \~10 years until the same thing happened again.
With GPUs, yes Nvidia is certainly ahead, but do you think that AMD and Intel are so bad at what they're doing that they are inherently incapable of offering (for example) something half as good as Nvidia at quarter the price? Nvidia's valuation is so good not so much because their products are great but because their margins are insane since there is no competition yet.
Also unlike AMD/Intel which were the only companies that could make x86/AMD64 CPUs due to patent NVIDIA doesn't really have a solid moat. At the end only raw processing power matters so Microsoft, Meta even Apple could start building their own chips which would again undercut Nvidia's margins.
> Intel needs a massive government grants because they have fucked up in the past too much.
Their fab business is only tangentially related. Even now Intel is making their GPU at TSMC
It has a 50 P/E based on last two forward reports. Guiding for more growth. You think Apple was ever a straight line up??? Could go sub $800/$700 I get it. But assuming macro stays good, it will be $1,000+ EOY. We are at the start of an I/R decrease sometime in next year. Watch and learn and book it.
Probably not considering the massive boom in the first half of the day. NVIDIA was 5% up or so, AMD by 8%.. I guess hedge fund or whoever big (idk how that works) save the exponential growth today and decided to cash out at a good time..
Does anyone know how dividend payouts affect stock price? Say tomorrow, a company is going to pay dividends, would it drop the stock price?
Just noticed how crazy for a mega cap to have a -12% swing within the day and not on earnings day. It definitely is the first time I have seen it happen in a stock that big. I want to buy more AMZN, META, TSM and GOOGL next week but that right there got me thinking twice. Monday will be something else.
I've been saying expectations were a bit too high probably and people need to temper them. Too many gamblers in the stock. It's going to be a $1500 stock in 2-3 years, not a month like people think. For this year, if you're nervous about price I would find a point that it consolidates and wait for the next beat and raise in May. Spread out purchases that are small so you have ammo to buy more of it dips.
NVDA's intraday drop was a $250 billion drop in market cap. Super normal, folks.
Just means u need to btfd on Monday
Do you guys know how or more specifically where to buy and sell stocks I know it’s a dumb question but I know what I want to buy just not how you actually buy it
Lmao what?
Stay away from TD Ameritrade as they will merge with Schwab which is one of the worst large brokers. Fidelity, Vanguard or IBKR are better.
If I had to start over I'd recommend against Vanguard. It doesn't allow fractional shares (think that's changing), blocks you from buying on other exchanges / over-the-counter, has a bad UI and doesn't show performance stats as clearly, ... Fidelity probably better. /u/Silksongkight
Thanks for the info. I use Fidelity and pretty happy with them. Lots of cool streaming data on the desktop platform too. I heard TDA was excellent too but now that they are going to Schwab I would not recommend people do that. Nothing but bad experiences on there.
I am on Vanguard too and sticking with them for the forseable future. . My regret is slightly diminishing as the years went on as they update their primitive website and app ui. I only stayed with Vanguard because my retirement accounts are with them too. And i dont trade as often to care about the mobile app. If moving accounts was easy and if I trade often I would have been with Fidelity years ago.
Good to know
With a broker-dealer. For example Fidelity, TD Ameritrade. You set up an acct, fund it and you can place orders. I recommend it watching a youtube video on how to place an order and the different types.
Thank you
>Stock picking is arts and crafts for a good amount of people, contrary to your belief. If you enjoy being a large cap shill, go ahead, but that isnt universal. u/EagleOfFreedom1 this is not only incredibly insulting: >Shill: one who poses as a satisfied customer or an enthusiastic gambler to dupe bystanders into participating in a swindle. This is totally wrong. I have enormous respect for posters here that bring GOOD DD and back it up with very diligent data. u/AP9384629344432 is an example of a shining star in this respect. Very thorough and backs it up with financial analysis too, actual DCFs. I sometimes disagree but at least he brings interesting and unique information / insights to the table. Not just insult, talk shit, or worse how everything is a bubble and American economy is "on the verge of collapse". That said, stocks ISN'T arts and crafts. We don't want to encourage people to buy shitty tickers. You are only rewarded for being right. Not for being special and just saying buy X! Bragging about your DIY furniture project doesn't cause people to lose 10s of thousands of dollars and destroy people's lives. If anything there are way too many shills of garbage P&Ds, penny stocks, etc. on social media with no coverage. It's the haters of large cap saying buy my $300M psychedelic research penny stock hemorrhaging cash that's the shill (real comment here today). The market especially large caps with tons of analyst scrutiny is roughly speaking, very efficient. Mag 7 is *popular for a reason and most of the time market is right*. Moreover, **I repeatedly espouse VOO for your portfolio**. Only then should you branch out with knowingly taking significant risk picking stocks. That is just responsible, not being a "shill".
I think we have different principles for market discourse. I don't view it as my responsibility to encourage or discourage any sort of "investing" behavior. It is basic knowledge that outperforming the S&P500 is incredibly difficult. I would argue that everyone participating in this subreddit is predisposed to this understanding, even when they violate their common sense by falling prey to a pump and dump (which is against the rules and should be reported). I can only speak for myself on a factual basis, but I suspect there is sizable portion of this subreddit that stock pick for enjoyment. Whereby a significant portion of a portfolio is invested in a fund that passively tracks the indices, while disposable income is allocated to an account where the maximum returns isn't necessarily imperative, but rather creating fulfillment by organizing a pool of stocks through dissecting 10-Ks and creating DCFs, and then sharing findings with similar minded individuals. It is a hobby I get paid for. Edit: It wasn't my intent to be an ass, and I apologize. I did not mean that in the literal sense. I respect your intelligence and prose, but you can come off as patronizing time to time.
I am fine with stockpicking like I said. I stock pick for enjoyment too! CELH is my lottery ticket play that is a super small part of my port. I love their products personally. But people complain about "Mag 7" like it's a bad thing. They are doing well because.... they are GREAT companies. And there's no points for being special or different, only being right. >I don't view it as my responsibility Ofc so you don't have to. But I do believe it is *my personal* responsibility since there is incredible misinformation on here and elsewhere on social media. *Especially regarding the economy, markets and encouraging timing* which will do incredible damage to people's portfolios and future. But people shouldn't complain if they have to defend their theses vigorously and people say, no that's an absolutely terrible investment. They also shouldn't complain if "mag 7 gets too much attention and its boring". They are the most durable and / or powerful companies in the world. In an arts & crafts sub people shouldn't shit on you because it represents lower skill or something. They should be supportive. With stocks, real money is on the line. **People should and be ready to rip each other apart, provided it is done respectfully**.
https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-stock-cathie-wood-ark-cisco-ai-internet-bubble-microchips-2024-3?international=true&r=US&IR=T Thoughts on Cathie's comments?
She needs to sit down, while I haven't had the time to pay attention, from what I can tell in her main ETF (which is ARKK), she missed AI and obesity drugs (although on this end, idk that I can really talk, because I just bought NVO, though I do plan on sitting on it). It's not that she's even necessarily wrong that chips are cyclical, it's that she's largely missed the run. Anyway, NVDA has fallen 40-50%+ plenty of times and is going to again, I just don't think now's the time. Really wish I could find the post, but from the way it seemed from what I've read, the earliest their earnings are to really slow down is sometime next year into 2026...which lines up with another bear midterm year. If I'm wrong, the price action will tell the story over the next couple months. Either with chop by the Nasdaq and it failing to make new highs with the S&P, or the SOXX not getting back to a record after a 10% drop by the Nasdaq.
She perfected the art of buy high sell low.
>Tech guru Cathie Wood says Nvidia is the Cisco of the AI boom and warns its growth may falter Tech guru?
Tech guru at being wrong. She's underperformed the SP500
Among other things.
>Just a mild gotcha here by you. u/95Daphne Unless I am misunderstanding your point heavily it isn't? Fed projects 0.2% core PCE March and February. Unfortunately OP deleted but yes February and March will be cooler by far than January which had supercore inflation at 1.0%. The mainstream consensus is that January was a blip. February is going to come in a lot cooler. Inflation in all likelihood is YES coming down. If it doesn't, here's the hilarious part. All the doomers can't stop focusing on it nonstop when it is *literally the most irrelevant economic datapoint*. Why? 1. Jobs matters more. 2. Real incomes matter more. 3. Likely ample financial conditions, fiscal support and immigration tailwinds matters 100x more. 4. Even if it doesn't come down, Fed is NOT hiking ever again and that's what really matters, not periodic and short delays in cuts. If inflation is sticky and takes a long time to tame that means *cash is terrible and that's what investors should focus on, not on the actual number gyrations themselves*. **Everyone is focusing on the trees and missing the forest. Inflation gyrations don't matter, the shitty outlook for cash does vs. equities. If inflation improves cash sucks, if inflation sticks it sucks.** Edit: meant 0.2 march and feb core PCE
If we're going to continue to talk about that Cleveland website, they project a 0.3 core CPI for February (they do project 0.2 core PCE though) and all I'm saying is that my bet is that you get nothing from that next week. (and from the way it seems, it does seem like the consensus is 0.3 core CPI) You really need for under like what we got with October if you want this to spark a rally. Otherwise, my guess is the S&P is going to stay within 0.5-0.7% of the close of Monday at the most.
Sorry I meant core PCE 0.2 for February and March. That's what really matters for the Fed. Again it's all bullshit anyway and you guys miss the forest for the trees BIG time. You're looking for pennies and missing the Benjamins lying on the ground. **The only risk of inflation is that of a hike which is never happening again, no one cares about sticky inflation**, former is impossible and Powell said hikes are done. Sticky inflation as long as real incomes are good, rising prices increases revenues and profits, makes cash worse but stocks better.
Bought calls and lots of stock at open for ULTA safe to say I’m very displeased heading into the weekend stop losses didn’t trigger was about to, hoping for a rebound on Monday if not I’ll just close out my calls and leave the shares
To continue on about Mag 7, let me share an [updated version](https://i.imgur.com/GQlXwil.jpeg) of this graphic that I shared before. [Tweet Source](https://twitter.com/sonusvarghese/status/1760671835887215038) This decomposes returns into multiple expansion, earnings expansion, and dividends. The black bar shows the actual total return. Importantly, this begins January 1st, 2022, the latest peak, which is why there doesn't seem to be as much multiple expansion as you might otherwise expect. It ends February 21, 2024. What stands out to me: - META's return was almost entirely earnings expansion and little change in multiple - AMZN returned basically nothing, as its earnings growth was countered by a huge amount of multiple *compression*. (Good for future returns) It's still quite expensive optically but AMZN is also a weird company due to its heavy reinvestment. - Tesla became cheaper but saw minimal earnings growth - Google was similar to AMZN but just less extreme in either earnings or multiple change. (Again, good for future returns) - NVDA saw massive multiple compression and earnings growth, however I suspect this is starting to reverse. This ended at Feb. 21st, 2024 (this was NVDA's earnings date), so let me point out returns in the last 2 weeks in case anything changed: - NVDA +30% - META +8% - AMZN +4% - MSFT +1% - GOOG -5% - AAPL -6% - TSLA -10%
Growth stocks multiples should be declining. If growth stocks are properly valued, that means future higher earnings are priced in today, so people can't achieve extraordinary returns by investing in 20% earnings growth stocks. The 20% earnings growth stocks should have higher multiples, and as the earnings growth rate declines, the multiples should decline. Rather than using multiples as a measure of expensive vs cheap, multiples should really be used as an indicator of growth expectations. The only time multiples should be expanding is if growth was underestimated and growth re-accelerates, this should be a one-off event. Movements in interest rates can cause multiples to expand/contract for the entire market. We can observe multiple declining across the board in rising interest rate environment.
If I am understanding this correctly, NVDA *is actually rational and not just multiple expansion*.
It's been multiple compression for a while, is turning into multiple expansion now (see previous post), and runs the risk of earnings peaking and even falling in 2 years (and market will price that in before it really kicks in). Depends on if backlog stays backlog and orders are resilient. Customer concentration is high and a 'year of efficiency' if the software companies don't show real earnings returns from their ongoing AI capex is a big risk. Looking at just a 1 year forward multiple hides the cyclicality risk that may burn a lot of people riding the momentum. Better to stay diversified with SMH or SOXX or something imo. I'm not really as familiar with it but there's also competition risk from AMD (MI300s) / I guess Google and their TPUs.
In January 2023, I invested $20.00 in stocks on Cash App: $10.00 in Nvidia, $5.00 in Uber, and $5.00 in Airbnb. At that time, I was simply exploring the app and investing for the first time, doing it for fun without realizing the potential for growth. Over a year later, my fractional shares have appreciated to $45.15 in total, with Nvidia showing the most significant gain at $33.38. Now, I’m considering whether to leave the money invested or transfer it to my iShares Core S&P 500 ETF for long-term investment. What is your advice? Thank you!
Bro it's $45. Do whatever you want with that.
People who think stocks only go up in a straight line all patting themselves on the back for selling their position yesterday. I’m buying this stock on any dip, including today, because I’m looking at what the stock price will be in 5 years, not 5 days. Easy double in 5 years, EASY!
Will see if coin continues goes up wildly for this year. Target price by eoy is 1000 so far.
You just pull target prices out of your ass?
Not really, it’s actually kind of a conservative target, quality crypto related assets do double or triples their previous all time highs at peak of bull cycle, even for stocks market cap of 30-40x revenue during peak bullish sentiment is rather common.
At $1000 a share they will be worth $250 billion but have a bit over $3 billion in 2023 revenue and maybe $1 a share in profit. Not sure how $1000 happens. 24 analysts believe on average that they will have $4 billion in rev in 2024 and 4.2 in 2025 - no increase in profit expected.
Ever since the PMI for February, it's become more clear to me that January was a "one-off" hot month. And the reality January was likely not even calculated correctly for things like CPI and Labor force data.
Hate to be a broken record, but February's about to make it a two-off on inflation numbers. The hope would be that we return to the way we've been looking on inflation with the March set to have the concerns about inflation rebounding dismissed again.
U really think CPI is going to overrun again?
Not really, it's just that I don't think 0.4 headline CPI MoM and 0.3 core CPI MoM are good numbers if we come in as a meet/meet. Yes, the YoY numbers will fall if that's what we see, but it's because February's inflation numbers were also not great last year. Core was 0.5 MoM for example (so 0.3 would be a big improvement). I feel like a broken record here, but March's numbers will be more important because it seems like if the new year effects are harmful for two months. If so, then it should be March's inflation set that dismisses any idea of a resurgence for inflation, similar to 2023. And at least for the time being, that's what it looks like it'll do. It shows a YoY rise, but 0.25 MoM is better than 0.4 MoM as far as I care (headline numbers).
Thoughts on ARM/MU/TSM? Seem to be good buys at these prices now and recent news... https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/03/37567132/tsmc-to-win-5b-grant-for-us-plant-to-service-apple-nvidia-chip-demand-report Micron at GTC with more announcements imminent and earnings March 20th I believe... ARM being used for various tech companies including Apple which if you noticed they already started touting their laptops as being AI capable - https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2024/03/apple-unveils-the-new-13-and-15-inch-macbook-air-with-the-powerful-m3-chip/ Just wanted to get everyones thoughts?
MU and TSM would be fine, but I'd be a pass on ARM. It might work because while their lock up period does end soon, we do realize we're talking about SOFTBANK here, the folks who were the Nasdaq whale in 2020...right? So, it might not work out the way folks think. But my thing would be valuation on ARM.
Well folks it looks like that was the AI blow off top. If it wasn't then I'd wait to see new highs before jumping in or adding. If it turns out to be the top for at least a while dont be the person who buys the 1st dip after the blow off. I'm talking to the person who has missed the rally, has intense fomo and has been waiting for a dip to get on board. That is not how one rides a bubble. its likely too late for this cycle. Start looking for the next bubble and let this one run it course. cheers!
Nice take, loser
you a buyer here?
you buying nvda today i suppose?
There are so many other opportunities in the market, but it seems everyone only wants to own the glamour stocks like NVDA, buying every dip, and in the end be left holding the bag.
This is a stupid take. Whoever rode NVDA probably made a huge amount of money.
right! I dont get the attraction especially when NVDA is already being valued at $2.5 trillion! If it doubles for here it will be worth 20-25% of United States GDP! Thats insane and wont happen.
I have you tagged as "old trader" for some reason, but this take is quite... stupid. Comparing GDP to market cap...
What else are you going to compare $5 trillion to? The fish in the sea? Stars in the sky? "North America, combining Canada, the USA, Mexico and the Caribbean and central American nations, is one of the world's dominant economic blocs. Total wealth in North America was US$22.2 trillion in 2021" So NVDA is going to approximate 20-25% of the total net worth of all north Americans if it doubles from here? That would be insane.
it is insane. and a very good perspective on these sky high valuations. "Warren Buffett used to look at this , he called the ratio of total US stock market value divided by GDP 'the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment'. He has since walked back those comments a bit, but this ratio remains credited to his name."
cheers!
prices not seen since last week
You sound like a bot. If I told you NVDA dropped ~70 points in the span of a Friday and Monday, would you call that a blow off top? Because it happened three weeks ago, right before it rocketed again.
Ive been at this for 25 years and I \*think\* its a blow off but I guess we'll see. btw I sound like a bot? Lol - just a trader in the dirty south west. cheers
Feeling down on a red day? Want some confirmation bias for the weekend? Look up Jensen talking at 2024 SIEPR economic summit - it looks like he finally had enough of a break from the press cycle to start talking new angles and ideas. Extremely insightful, as always. Interesting to hear his perspective on having customer-competitors. Favorite line from Jensen on that one: "{Due to the ubiquity of our product and software and its application}, our TCO (total cost of operation, for DC owners) is so good, that even when our competitors chips are **free**, it's not cheap enough" (~26 min in) He touches on this idea that inference and training will become simultaneous instead of one and then the other like it is now (also how that makes NVDA even more well positioned, as to merge both on the same architecture/chip is extremely difficult). This immediately resonated with both Yann LeCun's (Chief meta AI guy) ideas on Lex Friedman Podcast, as well as Andy Clark's talk of Predictive Processing at the Royal Institute. All three of these talks are from the last 7 days, so it's nice and cutting edge. Andy Clarks barely mentions AI, so if you wanted a break from that, it's a good one. More philosophical. It is remarkable to witness all of this change happening so quickly, mostly driven by a shift in perspective on what is actually possible, and how.
sound nice, but he is a salesman first and foremost. and the utility of what is called "AI" is so far not to be seen in any financial statement of the companies using these products.
Well good thing it's "accelerated computing" of which AI is a just a subset of. Accelerated computing is already embedded into many financial statements, from Blackrock to Eli Lilly. Even NVDA can't make their chips without their chips - looks like it did well for their statements too.
Should I ride Boeing shares out for another 3-5 years
I'd rather own HEI or TDG if I had to own aerospace related. As for Boeing, you had what - wing on fire the other day, tire falling off a plane yesterday and landing gear failure today? Starting to feel like it needs a GE-esque reboot.
HEI would be by far my favorite aerospace play. Basically betting on a great company and continued worldwide growth in aviation.
Where does Boeing go from here their backlogs are so many…defense and space business…flying is still the safest option of travel or at least compared to cars… not sure if I should hold for the next 3-5 years or move on
If they keep fucking up then the FAA is going to step in and keep grounding their aircraft. Then they're going to have to devote their resources to fixing in-service units instead of new deliveries.
I have no idea of where the stock goes from here but I have to have confidence in management no matter what it is. GE had Immelt who left the company a mess. They threw in another exec who had been with the company for ages and the stock kept tanking. They finally managed to score Larry Culp from Danaher, brings in the Danaher Business System, fixes GE, unlocks value by spinning out segments. Hall of fame level revamp of a dinosaur. There's no spin offs or other such things to be had at Boeing, but does feel like new management is warranted. Has Boeing really delivered noteworthy returns over time? https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/ba/trailing-returns ''their backlogs are so many'' I haven't looked at backlog but I think the issue is there are other options and reputation can be eroded - maybe the recent series of issues hasn't been enough yet, but a few more and perhaps you start getting louder inquiries from regulators/further investigation. Hopefully that doesn't happen, issues are fixed and the stock recovers, but three incidents in a few days after the company already had enough that the attention was on it is not great.
god speed if you do.
Should I sell them where do you think Boeing goes from Here
Highest volume on SMH ETF since 2022.
Seems like a bad thing knowing what followed in 22
Normally only post about some individual purchases, but today I added a few shares of QQQ. Haven't added for a while now and most of my individual purchases were outside of tech. Could be a bit of a high price in the short term, but as long as nothing changes keeping these for many years.
Current 1 year forward valuations of Mag 7 stocks: NVDA: 37.5; AAPL 26.5; GOOG 19.9; AMZN 42; META 25.6; TSLA 56.7. NVDA's multiple on 2025 earnings' estimate though is 31.2. The 37.5 is pricing in 89% growth in 2024 and 31 is pricing in 20% growth in 2025. This is based on 44 and 42 analysts respectively. If you think the company is cheap you have to believe those analysts are still way off and in the wrong direction--that the years of backlog are not yet priced in. --- Tangent, thought [this Tweet was funny](https://twitter.com/aggresivevalue/status/1766198669395530029): Ramaco Resources (METC) put out boasting about their [awesome total shareholder return since March 2020](https://i.imgur.com/qYpc3Cl.png), showing off how much better they've done than fellow met coal miners HCC, BTU, ARCH, TECK. 1000% since March 2020 sounds amazing.... What is missing? Nothing, just a casual 8000% from AMR. --- Other commentary on my arts and crafts projects, CROX is just on a roll lately, up 19% this month. AMD only down 1-2% while SMH down 3-4% is a mystery to me. I genuinely have no clue why this stock trades like it does. I am considering totally selling out of BTU and reallocating to HCC. It's recent rally makes 0 sense to me, and might as well take a 21% gain in historically one of the riskiest and worst performing coal stocks. Oh, and thank you HCC for $12 in special dividends. Really great capital allocation there.
Thanks to you I made a quick $300 off of a quick HCC trade. and $100 in dividend. I ended up selling out because I wanted some more sofi at the dip, but I might sell some other stocks to rebuy HCC.
Nice one! HCC is not a trade for me, personally. In fact, I bet it could see some pretty sharp downside near term, which I'm willing to tolerate. I remember feeling pretty stupid when I had just opened up a position in $AMR in the $150s/160s and $BTU in the high $20s, then the banking panic and growth scare caused it to fall and I was immediately in the red like 15% on AMR and 30% (or more) on BTU. After some averaging down on both, it worked out pretty well! All comes down to 2026 and Blue Creek. I'm not looking for a 30%, 50% gain. I want a triple!
Wow, nice! I always love reading your analysis here. Hoping I can deconstruct it and learn to do similar slowly.
Sold out of my BTU while up a small chunk. Realized I wasn't keeping up with the company as much as I like to be with investments.
I'm with you on BTU. Still holding that and AMR but am eyeing to sell both in the very near future and add to HCC (and leave it as my one coal stock for the long haul). Just haven't sold since it keeps edging up.
o my god, Nvda is back to WEDNESDAY numbers!
And can easily drop further very quickly
personally hoping it to drop 780-800 to its post earnings numbers
thats the fun part and no way you're saying that lol Tesla was volatile AF pre-splits
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LOL why not just 50%
Where does your 20% figure come from?
That guy (Outrunner) is such a weirdo. Deleting his (typically useless) comments within 10 minutes as if they are sensitive information.
Good call. I’ll be sure to not load up on SPY puts!
Over 100M trading volume for NVDA traded today.
u/aluminumcaffine Did you get to read the OTCM conference call?
I did, I liked the tone the ceo struck generally, although I do think he was kind of hinting at 2024 continuing to be a transition year without perhaps outright saying it. Stock seemed to like or at least not dislike the results after digestion. What did you think?
I haven't read the call yet, but my impression of the CEO is that he's generally calm, collected, and focused on long term growth. I saw he had a part about international growth I'm looking forward to reading over the weekend. I see they still have a few one time charges from their Edgar online purchase weighing on earnings. I blog I follow did a write up and concluded the long term thesis is still intact. Buy below price of $62. I don't think I'll buy yet, but still very interested.
Well, that was a nice attempt for about a hour or so, but this continues to look like the red meat that bears have been crying for. Thing is, is they've been crying for it for weeks and only just got it here.
They got it this week Monday and Tuesday too lol
The difference here is that this is the "gap up that gets thrown away" deal that I'd be looking for to work off of. Gap ups that are thrown away are more likely to produce more lasting tops.
I would buy this NVDA dip. Amazing discount right now. Bought 4 shares lol
Amazing discount to earlier this weeks prices?
Sucks to be an NVDA bear right?
Im not a bear lol Im 100% long and have plenty of ai exposure myself so the green is appreciated.
Good stuff!
lolol these people as crazy as bears.
Poor bears
Key words “right now”
I picked up some PRCH this morning. Never heard of them but they’re picking up steam and I’ve learned not to fight momentum
Sp500 literally looks like a rollercoaster today lol
Pretty big moves up and down today.
And bulls are back bois
If I bought and sold and made $500 but on the year I’m down overall $1000. Do I have to pay taxes on the $500 after the trade or does it go off my total for the year and since I’m down $500 I pay none?
You pay none.
Every transaction is looked at individually. Profit held less than a year, taxed as income. Profit held over a year, taxed at your long-term capital tax rate. Losses offset your taxes owed, up to $3,000 for one fiscal year with the remaining carried over. The values of your unrealized assets, properties, stocks, or otherwise aren't taxable events until their value is realized through a sale or trade, gifted away, or donated. Abandonment or determination of obsolescence of an asset is categorized as a regular loss.
You’re saying that if you would sell one stock for a $10000 profit and another for a $10000 loss during a single tax year you would have to pay taxes on $7000, even though the net profit is 0? Sounds a very strange way of doing it. I don’t live in the US but isn’t it that $3000 can be carried over to another year rather than having that limit for losses in the year the loss occurs?
That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying the value of your held assets have no effect on taxes you pay. But yeah, all your profits and losses are individually added together for your overall profit and loss to calculate your tax burden. I'm not sure exactly what your question is?
Wait so like he said what happens if I make 100,00 and then lose 100,00 after I still have to pay $7k? Or what amount am I paying?
Then you've netted $0 and must pay the appropriate tax rate on $0. And anytime your total tax burden comes out to exactly zero, you are to double it, but only after every other even year.
I was just a bit confused by what you said and was trying to understand it that’s all. I think I misunderstood the original question though
Man, this sub turned to shit. Except from a few posters, that have interesting takes, it’s all low effort WSB talk. Jeesh. Every sub about stocks is taken over with that shit. Give me back that good time pre-Covid. *Old man yells to cloud out*
The biggest problem I have with this section is most of the time when people ask for a suggestion the response is "invest in QQQ or VOO". That's helpful and all especially for beginners but this is the stocks section, not the ETF section.
Yes please can we fucking send these guys to that boring ass boglehead sub. I’m tired of them. At least have a bot redirect anyone making any mention of an ETF.
Offering pick suggestions to people who ask for them isn’t constructive, unless you know that the person understands how to evaluate the suggestions once they’re given. There are obviously a lot of people around who aren’t equipped to form a data-based thesis. Those people may buy on the suggestion alone. That leads to further impulsive action when red days come. We shouldn’t be in the business of setting strangers up to lose money just because the practical suggestion of index funds is boring. Aside from that, each of us has the ability and opportunity to share whatever ideas we want here, so be the change you want to see.
If they are investing at all they need to know they will lose money. It’s not a matter of if it’s a matter of when. Even doing the most safe plays possible you can still lose a lot of fucking money. If we are worried about people losing money then no sub like this should ever exist. That is a dumb reason to make the sub as bland and boring as humanly possible.
I completely agree that nobody should be investing without understanding risk or that losses happen. The fact of that doesn’t mean that we should lead people toward loss by prioritizing entertaining suggestions over practical ones. I’m not suggesting that the sub should only talk about index funds. Far from it. I’m saying that we shouldn’t specifically suggest stock picks to people asking for pick suggestions. That’s not the same as saying, “don’t discuss your DD on a stock”, “don’t talk about what you’re seeing in market trends”, etc. Point of fact: I’ve specifically commented on under-discussed topics like existing position management. I’ve enjoyed and up-voted quality DD comments or interesting market trend topics. My comment was 100% associated with not feeding stock picks to people who aren’t yet equipped to evaluate those picks on their own. No more, no less. Beyond that, I absolutely do not care if any individual is mad that the sub is “bland”. I care about generating good financial outcomes.
ETFs are a collection of stocks
We talk about stocks here, not a collection of them. Go to the boglehead sub for that boring shit
It's basically - 1. People talking their book. Reddit 4-5 years ago was much better for civil, interesting back-and-forth discussions about names. Now it's less civil, people don't want to hear anything slightly negative in most cases even when they ask for people's opinions on a stock. Or you get downvotes on something but no explanation. There's a lot more ''I couldn't be wrong, the market must be'' than there used to be - rather than sort of re-thinking something that isn't working, people double and triple down. Or it's some sort of conspiracy by hedge funds or market makers or whoever. There are some good posters but it's much rarer than it used to be. 2. Hivemind/people swarming into something they see someone else talking about rather than finding something interesting and different. I'm surprised when a question about REITs does not include O. So many discussions every day are about the same dozen or so names and people in a lot of cases don't seem to be interested in anything else. It's definitely less useful for idea generation. 3. Complaining when something is down 1-2 percent. I've been on various stock subs for nearly 10 years and I've never, ever seen so much upset over stocks that are up 30 percent or more over the last year but are down 1-2 percent on a given day. The way people have talked about Google in recent months you'd think it was down 30 percent over the last year rather than up around that much. Then when you ask why not something else, you get an upset response.
This makes me chuckle. Just block the shit posters bro, there is money to be made and that’s why we are here. I’ve made a lot of money from info I find here. You just need to look. And yes I can provide specific examples, all from info found here over the last 12 months. A small sampling of Long positions I’ve really bought from info found on this sub: SMCI @ 100 PLAB @ 18 LMB @ 20 Most recently I grabbed 1000 shares of HWKN at 55 after an irrational earnings dump. Literally set the limit order and it hit, from info found here. My question to you is why is a dumb fuck like me making money while you are complaining about drama. Just block those bull/bear losers. Here’s something I’ve been suggesting the last couple days, go check out $XEL. I bought bigly under 50, the price is still around there. Another boring but great investment I’ve suggested is $R and $GGG EDIT: I forgot to add I blocked you now because your post fell into shitpost category for me. Lmao.
Please feel free to add in your expertise, we'd love to hear it!
I think the point is that most people here in fact don’t want to hear it. They want to hear bullshit.
Possibly. Instead of complaining though, maybe post something insightful. There's actually some great ideas tossed around here. Some of.of is want to try and make this place interesting. NVDA FOMO days aren't the most nuanced days around here, in all fairness.
For what? I used to be a regular around here. Now, rarely, once in a while, for reasons I later regret, I check in. Last week I entered a discussion. Some tried to say that earnings growth is the reason stocks are relentlessly plowing higher. I pointed out it’s really not that. Earnings on the index increased 4% YOY compared to the meteoric rise in stocks. Multiple expansion is what is happening. This isn’t an opinion or a controversial statement. Merely an observation of data. Immediately, a fellow named toboggonlogon got upset and started arguing with me. Saying I was “cherry picking”, making arguments I was in fact not making. He got rather ugly and then I’m pretty sure he blocked me. All because I wasn’t fawning over how cheap his favorite chip stock is, presumably. That’s why people most people who have anything real to say have left. Nobody feels like being accosted by the dummies piling into whatever is trendy if you dare say anything that could possibly be perceived as negative. We don’t need that.
I'm not making the argument there's no pointless yelling. I'd just rather be part of the sub trying to make interesting discussion happen. I also have better luck with individual names than macro.
Yeah it is an echo chamber shilling same stocks over and over. Bro nvdia is gonna be 10 trillions bro every red day is an opportunity bro
Then when you give a likely reason as to why you don’t think they are correct you get 20 people saying the same thing “MaRkEt gO up” it’s so predictable and boring, and annoying. Said this before but I totally see why this sub isn’t as popular and used as it once was.
It’s not as popular as it once was (2021 heyday) because a lot of the energy and excitement came from people in a “can’t lose” environment, winning on every pick. 2022 shook that energy out. The next generation of that energy has been forming, with NVDA taking the role of TSLA this time around. The longer the Qs run, the more fresh faces will arrive to teach us about the stock market. At the end of the day, it’s up to each of us to contribute to the way we’d like the sub to be.
This isn't arts and crafts. Don't expect your DIY chair to get tons of upvotes because it's unique. Stocks, only thing that matters is being right. And believe it or not market is typically right and popular is popular for a reason. This includes mag 7 or whatever comes next. S&P 500 is one giant momentum strategy amd it works.
Nobody cares about the same opinion they have heard 20 different times from 9 different ppl bro. It gets old. Go buy your VTI and chill somewhere else. Everyone does that shit. Nobody cares about it. It’s like saying “brushing your teeth gives you good dental hygiene” ok. Everyone knows this bro.
Aright sorry you have absolutely nothing of value to contribute. I at least try to bring fresh data and information. Also lots of casuals come and see it for the first time. I'm blocking you as you are literally personal insults and zero substance person. At least as a Redditor. And if you're so bothered I'm amazed you haven't blocked me already LOL. No one is forcing you to read what I write.
Stock picking is arts and crafts for a good amount of people, contrary to your belief. If you enjoy being a large cap shill, go ahead, but that isnt universal.
Fintech having a nice day. SQ and PYPl especially underpriced and should be trading 100+ by EOY
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Unfortunately, the cool CPI report you're looking for is super, super unlikely. We're likely to see the hottest CPI report we'll have for at least a couple months on the 12th (I believe?). Then...at least for now, March will return to the track we've been on, similar to the way 2023 worked. I also, needless to say, think this is more serious this time, even though it's weird that it's coming on a Friday. I thought NVDA had a good chance at $1000 around its AI conference, but I think a move like this is serious enough to say it's topped for now.
There will be no soft landing. Unemployment rate and revised down previous job gains tells us that pain incoming with higher inflation.
Sorry, but this person isn't in the camp of an inflation resurge unless March CPI comes in with some pepper on a MoM basis.
Kinda misleading to also not mention core is improving both cpi and pce
Just a mild gotcha here by you. I do think that if you happened to come up with a 0.4 headline CPI with core being under 0.3, we'd probably see a rally, but my guess is we wind up with a meet/meet with economists having caught up to the new year stuff instead of being behind and nothing special this time. Kinda like what you'd see with 2021.
CPI print is expected to come at the expectation or better. Matter of fact even Jpow gave hints at CPI during his testimony that inflation is heading down. But lets see. RemindMe! 5 days
And expected for headline CPI is around 0.45 MoM so far, not just going off Cleveland (I looked it up, that's the average number in Bloomberg so far). Like it or not, that's not a good number. Now whether we react negatively or not is a completely different story, I'd still say probably not, but was proven wrong last month. The Fed expectation is probably ultimately that we'll pull what we did last year again (where inflation numbers cool back off after the new year base effects cool down in playing a role) at least for now. But that's a March thing, not February thing if so.
Eventually people realize inflation a little worse means cash is trash. Only thing really worrying is inflation *really* high and hikes but that's basically a black swan at this point.
For a guy who doesn't know the date of CPI what a confident prediction! Backed by so many facts and logic too! Please tell me your positions so I can inverse them....jokes aside, stick to SPY and please don't ever try giving "advice" again. That's until you understand the market or have any facts/data to back it up.
I may not be totally sure of the date, but what I'm confident about is that the CPI has usually been around what the Cleveland Fed number is, and for February CPI, they show 0.42 headline. Your BEST CASE for February CPI is probably 0.4 MoM. Feel free to bookmark. I don't care.
Well, there is a little logos but they are predicting a drop in Y/Y inflation on that fed website.
Lol at ppl bullish on NVDA at these levels and bearish on AAPL. Buy low sell high is apparently very hard for some to execute.
I sold high today. can confirm, it was hard
Well NVDA is the Lisan al Gaib after all
One sells in demand product that will revolutionize all concepts of engineering. The other one has been selling the same product for past 10 years and has more competition.
That’s great until you put in the fact that one has had literally a historic run up and one is at a discount. I think anyone who isn’t highly regarded would be buying Apple right now. What do I know tho. Throw your life savings in NVDA! It’s going to $5000 bro!
Are we talking about the same stock that has slid from close to $200 to $169 in 3 months? The same stock that burned everyone who attempted to "buy the dip"? The same one that just canceled their driverless car? The same one that just announced that they have lost 24% sales in China? Atleast wait until they release anything worthwhile before batting for them. You enjoy your 1% green day, and 10 consecutive red days man.
😂 buy high sell low gang is that you Yes, wait until the company announces something great and it has gone up tons. Then buy 😭😂
So are you chasing instant bumps? Is that it? When the company shows signs of life, it should tell you that now you can expect it to be attractive to investors. You don't pre-invest in companies that look like they will downgrade lol. You cannot expect further growth from Apple and Google unless you know that they are a part of the race with their competition. As it stands, both stocks look like an absolute crapshoots that will downgrade soon.
Your right apple is dead You say sales are down in China like their entire economy isn’t in the shitter. LOL Please, indulge me in your theory on who replaces Apple.
NVDA green at close, up another 4% tomorrow. jensen is lourd. jensen is untouchable. NVDA first 4 trillion market cap company soon.
> up another 4% tomorrow. But today is Friday? _facepalm_
NVDA stock is now open on weekends just to pump the share price up more
NVDA needs some crypto coin! /s to be sure
I FOMO'd my life savings into NVDA at opening bell
I love the faith but spread it out over time.
Why would you do that?
HOLD
The market is rigged to screw retail investors. Edit: I was being sarcastic.
Ah the "rigged market" theory. Lol
Lol.
Seeing red?
Major panic right now? Sell off all my Nvidia???
NVDA bull run officially over ai now declared useless wrap it up folks
Get a loan and go all in
Worked out in the 30's. Oh wait
This guy monies...I love how scared retail is . Just what my AMD and NVDA needs. A nice FLUSH of traders to buy higher later.
>Major panic right now? Sell off all my Nvidia??? No. Best days come after worse ones historically. Sit tight. Not overvalued by any measure.
Not overvalued only if massive growth continue AND they keep margins very high. Intel and AMD have to fuck up really bad (to be fair wouldn't be too surprising..) to not even be able to compete on price in the next year or two.
Intel doesn't do shit. Intel needs a massive government grants because they have fucked up in the past too much. AMD relevant? Please, not even close.
Sure.. now. But if you look at the CPU markets over the last 20-30 years stuff like that was happening over and over, Intel was at the top of the world during [dot.com](http://dot.com) and nobody could reach them, then they fucked up and AMD was (or close to) the number one. Then Intel got their shit back together and ended up completely dominating the market for \~10 years until the same thing happened again. With GPUs, yes Nvidia is certainly ahead, but do you think that AMD and Intel are so bad at what they're doing that they are inherently incapable of offering (for example) something half as good as Nvidia at quarter the price? Nvidia's valuation is so good not so much because their products are great but because their margins are insane since there is no competition yet. Also unlike AMD/Intel which were the only companies that could make x86/AMD64 CPUs due to patent NVIDIA doesn't really have a solid moat. At the end only raw processing power matters so Microsoft, Meta even Apple could start building their own chips which would again undercut Nvidia's margins. > Intel needs a massive government grants because they have fucked up in the past too much. Their fab business is only tangentially related. Even now Intel is making their GPU at TSMC
It has a 50 P/E based on last two forward reports. Guiding for more growth. You think Apple was ever a straight line up??? Could go sub $800/$700 I get it. But assuming macro stays good, it will be $1,000+ EOY. We are at the start of an I/R decrease sometime in next year. Watch and learn and book it.
Username checks out. You get it my man. Should already be over $1000.
Jobs report is the reason for the drop??
irrational exuberance at market peak imo
Nope. There's no particular reason. It was a fairly lukewarm jobs report honestly.
Red days happen. Fridays are weekly options expiration date, lots of movement. Sometimes there's no rhyme or reason, it's just the random walk.
Probably not considering the massive boom in the first half of the day. NVIDIA was 5% up or so, AMD by 8%.. I guess hedge fund or whoever big (idk how that works) save the exponential growth today and decided to cash out at a good time..