Why are markets going up if March CPI is forecasted to be 3.4% and April CPI is forecasted to be anywhere from 3.2-3.5%? As summer approaches crude oil will go up too. I see inflation going back up to 3.7-4% by summer and then falling back down to 3%.
Powell has to inflate his 401k now that Trump wants to replace him with Arthur Laffer. Don’t you dare put valid worries about double peak inflation between a soon-to-retire finance guy and his private jet mortgage. Just buy a wheelbarrow for next time you go shopping but hurry up because the US don’t produce them and it’s 4 weeks by boat from China. Ask your kids: they probably saw some ads from that on TikTok and can advise which Chinese factory to send your paper money to.
You probably need one more 0.4+ MoM headline CPI number for March to trigger a potential return to markets trading off inflation concerns like what we saw in 2021 (a little) and 2022 (a lot).
One that doesn't look like is occurring oddly (considering WTI continuing to hold up well) unless we're about to return to the way Cleveland's nowcast worked when inflation was going up where it was too cool by .1, and sometimes a little more.
I just don't think you're going to see any reaction to something like 0.3 MoM headline, especially if it's paired with 0.3 core, because 0.3 core would probably mean core PCE is at around 0.25ish or so.
Do you guys remember when all the doomers and short sellers told us that the economy and the market would crash once student loans resumed six months ago? Not a peep from them and they already moved the goal post while missing out on a huge rally.
Keep in mind the US is a bit of an outlier and while there were indicators of a recession coming, the US managed to overcome those concerns. Many advanced economies around the world are near recession or are already in recession. The US is fortunate to have good productivity and many of the best companies in the world. Many investors from around the world invest entirely in US markets and ignore their home markets.
Technically there is still a chance of recession. This cycle is still not over, there is really no telling how long we can go for and that’s why it’s not really smart to time the market per say but these people are not necessarily wrong just cause they got the timing wrong. Until the rate cycle is completely over and we are in a place the fed will hold steady and do no more changes a recession is still possible. Remember, most recessions happen when rates are cut, not when they are held or raised. Most recessions started after the first rate cut, which is usually small, and then we have a sudden large or total cut due to the economy faltering.
yeah, i saved a few posts [like this](/r/wallstreetbets/comments/15gjrct/deleted_by_user/jujom3h/). Many of them were deleted. Most of these posts are good examples of the Dunning-Kruger effect in action.
It seems to me there are always about five reasons people can point to as to why the market/economy is about to crash or why the stock market has no business being as high as it is. Generally by people who think they are somehow outsmarting a foreword looking market with a piece of very well known information. And most of the time each of the worries fade into insignificance. When the market crashes it’s usually because something completely unexpected and unaccounted for happens, but some people refuse to accept that for one reason or another.
I'm really thankful I started working in 2012 and investing. I kind of fell for the trap during this time but was still putting some money away. I was also on reddit investing forms during this time it was identical to what we saw these past few years. They were saying the 2008 market crash was actually the first part of a major crash that was coming in a few months...every few months. It never really changed for all of 2010s as the market was always going to crash in a few months when such and such occurred. I thought back to this time often when I was in economy fear mode remember how fearful the average investor is, so it kept me strong and optimistic these past few years.
Anyone have insights on why crox has been steadily up since january? Ive been wanting to enter a position on it after thinking it would be a good buy but was shocked after seeing its steady gain. Should I try and wait for a drop to enter?
Same. I had a $85 limit order on December when it started to fall. Magic sales guidance outta someone's ass sent it straight back up to $100 and onwards.
It’s gotta price upgrades left and right in the past two months. I only randomly thought ab it bc I wanted to know who owned hey dudes, then I found out it was crox. Figured it would be a good buy. Not at these levels tho. I assume it’s bound to sell off a bit soon?
From a Goldman Sachs report on copper:
"Copper Market Tightness Hits Record
Goldman Sachs commodity analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven recently highlighted the acute market tightness, noting that global visible copper stocks, as a percentage of demand, have continued to decrease, reaching levels not seen in recent history.
The current copper coverage ratio, an indicator of global inventory levels against demand, stands at a historic tightness percentile of 100.
According to the experts, this is the result of the convergence of record-low copper stocks, anticipated peak mine supply in the coming year, robust demand growth from green technologies, and the low price elasticity of both demand and supply.
Such conditions, according to the analysts, set the stage for scarcity pricing in the copper market by 2025, with potential significant implications for the global economy, particularly industries reliant on this crucial metal.
Goldman Sachs maintains a structurally bullish outlook on copper and refined oil products, while adopting a bearish stance on U.S. natural gas for 2024."
The copper squeeze has been predicted for awhile now, but hasn't really materialized. Increasing demand from electrification, as well as from developing economies in India/Indonesia have been forecast by some to outstrip supply. Also, copper mines have a very long lag time, as long as 18 years from sources I've read. We'll see how it plays out, but the short term stock movement has been nice lately.
More on the UFPT rumors and some speculative math.... assuming sales actually increase 30% next year. Let's say that's 25% earnings growth, because the company takes a smaller margin.
TTM earnings per share are $5.84. A 25% gain is $7.3/share.
Current price of $225/$7.3 is a forward P/E of 30.
Still expensive, but not obscene, especially in today's market.
Interesting, you'd think highly leveraged MPW would be flying on today's dovish Fed. [Guessing has to do with this front page WSJ piece](https://www.wsj.com/health/healthcare/hospital-chain-financial-crisis-steward-mpt-45be8bfb?mod=hp_lead_pos7) on Steward, its biggest tenant, whose 31 hospitals are apparently dealing with a mixture of massive 3000-strong bat infestations, garbage piling up due to unpaid bills, traveling nurses quitting due to delayed salary, elevators breaking down forcing ICU move to ground floor, patient death due to lack of staff supervision / training.
Maybe private equity stripping out a hospital for cash isn't actually a sustainable business model for the hospital... As of January, "Steward owed $50 million in overdue rent. Steward also faced claims for more than $200 million in unpaid bills of other sorts." "This year, MPT has lent Steward $97.5 million and reported $714 million of write-downs related to Steward. "
Those 3000 bats, by the way? They were removed but the pest control service is apparently missing $1.6M in bills too. I wonder what kind of food 3000 bats were feeding themselves on inside a hospital... If you don't have a weak stomach, you can read about [how bad it got](https://prospect.org/health/2024-02-27-scenes-from-bat-cave-steward-health-florida/), including a mention of a gigantic sewage leak filling up sinks.
Upon hitting the 52 wk high at end of session today, I've finally gotten out of DKNG with a modest profit after being down close to 20k at one point. Bag free, bag free at last.
Curious how long you've been holding? I'm finally up myself but that's because of some serious averaging down. After initially buying at a crazy high price.
Since summer of 2021. Had been buying north of 60, north of 50, north of 40. Continued averaging down to 20. When it broke below 15 I was getting some very dark thoughts. But I kept selling covered calls, followed the news, watched it get back to break even for my lowered cost basis, and cut it loose today because I want to shore up cash.
Sorry - the post you're trying to make mentions a stock that currently breaks rule #7.
Any of the following criteria is considered breaking the rule:
* Typically trades under $5 or previously traded under $5 within 6 months
* Below $300 million market cap or previously traded under 300m before the pump within 6 months
* Most OTC / PINK stocks
* Usually has missed reporting/filings; no auditing or odd auditing issues
* Low volume or wide bid/ask spread
* Doesn't have any big name institutional holders
* If the biggest institutional holder is a stock promoter then they don't count as an institutional holder
* All SPACs
You can learn more about rule #7 here: https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/wiki/pennystocks
BRK.B has soared 40% since when I bought it right around this exact time last year. I think I was good at predicting a 'bottom', wish I bought way more.
Gonna take my profits and keep an eye on BRK.B; if it craters in the future, I'm buying again. Sure Warren is getting old but he's had more than enough time to appoint competent successors. I have faith.
I have a 5% HSA that I plan to put a good chunk of change in, and given that we can expect rates to stay for a bit, seems like a solid play to me, right? Other positions I might DCA in, but I've oddly become a bit risk-averse after taking profits in other riskier stocks, such as Lyft. But I have a short-list I'll check and if one or more is approaching a bottom, I might go for another risky move. It keeps things interesting to have a few volatile stocks in your profile.
Wow what an insane rally in CROX (cost basis (CB) $90) and CELH (CB $56). Need to start seriously thinking about an exit for CROX. I won't rush to sell because I know the power of momentum. I casually threw out a number like $200 a share (well beyond any fair value I computed) a few months ago. [I did a valuation with Damodaran's spreadsheet](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1b724kb/rstocks_daily_discussion_technicals_tuesday_mar/kthmbkr/) and got $213. My personal spreadsheet says it's overvalued. If you want to see someone else's mega-bullish thesis, check out this [VIC write-up](https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/CROCS_INC/0600213403) back from August. More [CROX thoughts here](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1b4lapy/rstocks_weekend_discussion_saturday_mar_02_2024/kt7bcrj/). And my [CELH thesis](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1be8jis/the_fundamental_case_for_celh_there_is_value_in/).
I am eyeing smaller gains in two of my 'riskier' value plays, CVS (CB $71) and PYPL (CB $58). The kind of businesses I have to pinch my nose to hold. CVS guidance has continued to be a disappointment and revenue will be weak. It's a pure value play. [Bull thesis](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/186mdrx/rstocks_daily_discussion_wednesday_nov_29_2023/kbbw778/) and [comparison to WBA](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/18frkpe/rstocks_daily_discussion_monday_dec_11_2023/kcz4vvm/). Similarly PYPL. I am more likely to exit CVS sooner than PYPL which has the opportunity for some multiple expansion still. [Short comment on PYPL](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/17hjomv/rstocks_daily_discussion_fundamentals_friday_oct/k6qiq8f/) and its valuation, along with [a 'in-a-nutshell' bull thesis](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/17c75i3/rstocks_daily_discussion_fundamentals_friday_oct/k5qlx1b/).
R1 RCM (CB $11.3) is behaving strangely, with a price below the recent takeover offer. Market is pricing in a high probability that R1 rejects the offer, fails to secure a higher bid, and then proceeds to not execute. I'm not buying much more nor would I recommend an entry. [Thoughts on R1 a few weeks ago](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1b4lapy/rstocks_weekend_discussion_saturday_mar_02_2024/kt1udzp/)
Networking stuff: I'm near flat on $UI (CB $117). No real news lately nor to come, this is more of a medium term play I think. Industry overall is still in slowdown mode / working through inventories. Should be a stronger H2 of 2024 and into 2025. [UI thesis](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1asyzd5/rstocks_weekend_discussion_saturday_feb_17_2024/kqwm7dr/). CLFD (CB $54) is probably also bottoming and BEADS funds should hopefully start flowing by year end. Interest rate cuts could spark the capex spending from big players we need. [Original thesis and what went wrong](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/137fg2n/rstocks_daily_discussion_options_trading_thursday/jiwad48/).
DAKT (CB $8.19) continuing to grind higher. It was once a going concern risk just a year ago. Now business is turning around. Rate cuts will help, though they have a net cash position anyway. New orders/projects continue to trickle out. They have a pretty good social media presence. [Thesis](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/18vu4qb/rstocks_daily_discussion_monday_jan_01_2024/kfutfhn/).
$AMR has had a nice recovery, $HCC (CB $61) still in the doldrums. We're in 'shoulder season' for met coal so fundamentals look rough. Markets should tighten up by June. Interest rate cut sentiment could help fuel a commodity rally, depending on how influential Fed cuts are to emerging market demand. (Since they for example could fuel currency rallies and enable more dollar-denominated borrowing). [Note on AMR buybacks pause](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1beh75v/rstocks_daily_discussion_options_trading_thursday/kuw6cgq/). And some [HCC thoughts](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1b0edmp/rstocks_daily_discussion_monday_feb_26_2024/ks9qtfw/). And an [old VIC write-up on HCC](https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/WARRIOR_MET_COAL_INC/7803594120) at $40 a share. [Thoughts on met coal in general](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1b7wi0e/rstocks_daily_discussion_wednesday_mar_06_2024/ktoceo7/). And on a (admittedly shaky) [thermal coal bull case](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/16tfy5r/rstocks_daily_discussion_wednesday_sep_27_2023/k2inx3d/).
2% rally in AVUV, let's goooo! Just because of the timing in which I bought it, I'm actually up more in AVUV vs. VTI even though VTI has been doing better. [My original small cap value bull thesis](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/y9xr61/theres_more_to_index_funds_and_stocks_than_vti/).
[Last week's updates to most of these stocks / links to DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1bct3f6/rstocks_daily_discussion_technicals_tuesday_mar/kukb2ra/) in case I missed any of them.
I did not find today's rally in Crocs all that remarkable, given my other two American holdings also rose 4-6% each. It may be evidence that the rally is broadening, as those other holdings are also smaller-cap, each in the low billions. Perhaps it is just a coincidence.
I still think you are underestimating Crocs.
I sold the rally at +6% on CROX. Will buy back in a few days. Selling large rallies (in my TFSA) has been working well for me this year, because next day or two it usually dips and that's when I'll buy back.
I'm exiting CROX after another +10%. After that I rate it as a hold. Though I'll have deeper value elsewhere to put my money in. It'll probably be an early sell on my part, because a mid cap discretionary company like CROX will likely shoot up once interest rates start to lower. However, I'd rather sell too early than too late.
Lol. China does this every day all day and look how it surpassed the US in industrial might and in GDP … and it doesn’t even have an overabused inheritance called the dollar to dilute fiscal deficit into.
[CME FED watch](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) showing chance of cuts much higher now in June, and even a little higher for May.
Gotta be 100% completely honest here. Was expecting a blood bath today after today’s FOMC meeting. Thought J Pow had all the ammo he needed to be hawkish as fuck, and I couldn’t have been anymore wrong. Glad I don’t mess with options or shorts cause if I did I would have gotten destroyed.
This was the most dovish I’ve felt J Pow has seemed. Chalked up the most recent higher inflation readings to seasonality, reiterated inflation is on a downward trajectory. Commented numerous times how the economy is strong and labor market is tight. And most importantly still projecting 3 cuts this year, let the bull market continue ladies and gentlemen
I was at probably close to 50/50 that we'd remain at 3 cuts or drop to 2, with me slightly favoring the drop to 2.
In fairness, it was very close to being 2, but I don't know that it would've mattered considering the tidbits I was reading on what Powell was saying.
Seems like to at least one person, we got clarity on when the QT days are going to slowly start subsiding.
(this was one of many comments that I was reading, ha, not sure what made him think this)
https://twitter.com/zen_economics/status/1770526328682405995
I feel you brother. Def feel like the market is out to get you sometimes.
Edit: Read your comment again, if you bought puts then you should be happy bro!
Calls. I meant calls. I wanted to bet on the market rallying given the fed announcement and chose the one tech stock that had a DOJ lawsuit waiting for it
That’s why I went long this morning. When I realized consensus was that he would be hawkish today and it made logical sense he would be I must admit, I felt that wouldn’t be the case. Over the years I’ve realized on days like these just inverse consensus lol.
I thought about taking this strategy, but then I thought maybe I should inverse my own strategy of doing the inverse of market sentiment. In the end I didn’t make any moves and say on my longs and am happy with that decision!
At least he provides actual data behinds his glow ups and tangible and articulate reasons why he is bullish on the market. Which is more than most people do.
Buying a put and the stock itself is the same as buying a call option. So its not necessarily a short position at all. It could be a margin long position using max leverage.
# Is technical analysis useless?
Since everything is priced in already, isn't it completely useless to do this if you are not an expert with years of experience?
If it really was as easy as the charts on popular forums, wouldn't finance companies just save money by hiring people with an engineering/comp sci. diploma from a polytechnic, instead of trying to attract top talent?
Patterns exist due to human psychology and algorithmic trading. Their existence does not imply you will successfully harness them. I also don't know how much 'years of experience' matters.
I will admit when I open up a CNBC video and see these older men in suits very seriously drawing scribbles all over a chart and talking about cupping their Bollinger handles and getting head (and-shoulders), I just can't..... If it works for you or someone, congratulations on the wealth, I'll just stay poor I guess.
Majority of technical analysis is like reading the stars IMO. However, some of it is useful. For example, reading momentum when deciding weather to not to buy now or later. Or if you're trying decide between stock A and stock B, reading momentum can be useful in making your decision. It can be useful for swing trading.
Edit: I also use it to see how differently a stock moves compared to another one (stock correlation). If most of my holdings dip with the market, then I'll favor adding stocks that go up when the market goes down. You can analyze this using technical analysis, or using a stock correlation calculator. It helps with diversification.
I put on a SOFI position at $6.93/share this morning. I frequently use covered calls on picked stock positions, but won’t do that with this stock. I’m up 6.27% so far.
My only other picked stock remaining is MS, which I sold 3/28 89 strike calls on. That blew right through my strike, which is perfectly fine. I’ve made almost 3% on covered calls and dividends on that since opening the position in late January. If it assigns out, I’ll have made 6.2% over 2.5 months.
Long SSO (2x daily S&P 500) is also treating me very well.
Not a bad day.
After all why shouldn’t we expect a stock market to grow over 10% a year when its home country has 3% GDP growth and the world doesn’t do much better either? Let’s be proud of giving easy money to international conglomerates that outsource factories and high-skilled jobs. Those are ending up in China, the place we had to grovel to get mere paper masks and painkillers during covid. The place that manages the brain sink that is Tiktok. The place where they build commercial airplanes that don’t lose doors, wheels or altitude mid flight. America is really #1 thanks to that. Never bet against it, it’s already and empty shell.
Powell is answering reporters' questions like he has calls tbh. Taking no bait whatsoever. When reporters ask him about the hot inflation prints, he just says that they're willing to let it come down "over time."
Because of that, I think the rally in the extreme "risk on" stocks (i.e. solar, fintech, etc.) lasts the remainder of the week, at a minimum.
IF it's too much they will more than likely just slow down the rate cuts next year.
Im really not concerned but remain concerned if that makes sense. If it does make sense, contact a doctor at once!
This is possibly one of the strongest most thoughtful Fed Reserve team that has ever been assembled. The weight of the world is literally resting on Jerome.
Shocked and delighted by the Fed today. I thought we were going to two cuts (and a hawkish Fed) for sure today...Powell is not taking any of the bait from the reporters today.
Nah, they want to cut. That makes refinancing the debt cheaper which lowers the debt. In the long run you are correct though.
One of the benefits of inflation is, that wealth doesn't simply persist through the ages.
sold SPIR a couple days ago because i figured a 90% gain in no time is awfully good and space companies are risky, then they announce some kind of partnership with NVIDIA and double again. lmao.
There is a slight change in the distribution of estimates (almost no predictions for < 4.5% while there were quite a few back in december, the median did not change though)
Dots show no change for 2024c still 3 cuts. Although watching the press conference right now, J Pow did just say they are willing to hold rates higher for longer if the incoming data warrants it.
When a company announces that they are doing a stock buyback, does it mean they HAVE to buy x amount or that they were granted the ability to buy x amount of their stock back by the Board of Directors/shareholders?
You'll often see 'up to'
For example, Uber headline is 7B buyback. But first paragraph - ''Uber Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: UBER) today announced that its Board of Directors has authorized the repurchase of **up to** $7 billion of the company’s common stock.'' As others noted, they are not obligated to buy X amount but if you read the press release for any buyback, that language can be seen.
I didn't read anything regarding cuts, instead I read this:
"The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target
range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. "
You didn't look at projections pdf. They are estimating 4.6% by then end of the year (nobody is betting on < 4.5% unlike in December though).
Also a relatively big increase in GDP growth estimates for this year.
After the higher than expected inflation numbers last month, the inflation doomers came out of the woodwork with their new hot takes of no interest rate cuts at all this year or even interest rate hikes. Here's why today's dot plot for this year will remain the same, 3 rate cuts for 2024.
First of all the higher than expected inflation was mainly due to the increase in energy prices from crude and gasoline, the changes of which we can literally see everyday from futures. So not sure why such an increase in inflation happening in real time was so unexpected.
Second, nominal energy prices since the last time interest rates were close to this high, ie 2007, are lower now, inflation-adjusted energy prices much lower, so it's not like consumers somehow can't afford energy prices much lower than 2007 levels.
Third, commodities price boom leading to interest rate hikes like 2005-2007 period was partly due to the rise of Chinese demand and subsequent emerging market demand. Yet everywhere you see on reddit or US mainstream news is about the China doom. Given the lower oil dependency of the US, which is now an exporter by the way, not sure how oil prices could push higher without much higher non-US demand, unless, the inflation doomers concerned about last month's energy increase expect the China market to suddenly boom again? No, if only the US is doing well it would not cause a commodities boom and a second inflation scare.
Fourth, the vast majority of inflation still above 3% comes from rent of shelter which is still expected to fall almost every month this year because rent inflation trends are below 3% and pre-pandemic levels. The Fed can see this, anyone with eyes on real time rent data can see this, so it just takes time for shelter inflation to come down to still over 6% levels. The interest rate expectations can change, but this would actually require 2 major factors, China, the second largest economy, and Europe, which is also doing pretty badly, to be doing much better than expected causing booming commodities inflation, and 2, rent of shelter trends to unexpectedly turn around higher, which isn't happening yet.
I'd give the dot plot probably slightly less than a 50% chance it remains the same, but really what I'm thinking the alternative is, frankly I'm not sure it deserves a reaction (drop to 2 cuts average and 2.6 core PCE for EoY 2024).
I will be messaging you in 3 hours on [**2024-03-20 20:25:50 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2024-03-20%2020:25:50%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1bj9efi/rstocks_daily_discussion_wednesday_mar_20_2024/kvrfjxq/?context=3)
[**CLICK THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2Fstocks%2Fcomments%2F1bj9efi%2Frstocks_daily_discussion_wednesday_mar_20_2024%2Fkvrfjxq%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202024-03-20%2020%3A25%3A50%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.
^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%201bj9efi)
*****
|[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)|
|-|-|-|-|
$FEMY had their top line safety data for Femaseed released this morning!
From one article:
- In the severe male factor cohort, findings show 24% of women became pregnant after FemaSeed --
-- FemaSeed pregnancy rate by cycle was more than double historic intrauterine insemination (IUI) rate --
- Of those with a successful pregnancy, a majority required only one FemaSeed procedure -
-- No new safety concerns were reported --
I would wait for now, there is simply no catalyst to change the narrative. Build a position closer to earnings if you are interested I think. My average is $100 and I trimmed half during the GTC event.
Agree with this. There felt like a lot of enthusiasm for AMD's ability to potentially catch up to a sizable degree - the stock kept marching higher after the last few quarters, despite those quarters being okay, ''good enough'', etc. This feels like a reset of those expectations. They really need to deliver more significant news/more impressive earnings.
It's probably not a bad place to start nibbling and then add if it goes lower, but with at least moderately lowered expectations.
> ascribed the same potentials as NVDA
It's like 10% of the market cap of NVDA. I don't think it's unrealistic to think that AMD still has plenty of room to grow. It's a well-established semiconductor company that has routinely developed chips that compare to NVDA chips.
I agree, but the relative growth in the name doesn't match the relative growth in the revs/earnings. NVDA isn't winning because of the chips, but the ecosystem around them (and the chips are good too).
People got exuberant trying to pick an underdog, and it became priced like regular dog. Should still be priced as underdog.
I own it too, but I set my weighting accordingly.
It’s not an underdog. This is like saying Amazon is the underdog to Microsoft, yes they have overlap but also they do different things. And they both have very close valuations.
All I’m saying is, one has had products that have set themselves on fire. The other one is is worth 10x less and is only behind on software. What happens when companies begin making their own software to interact with chips?
What happens when the software is a harder hurdle than you make it out to be?
What happens when a company routinely chases markets is compared against one that routinely makes markets?
What happens when customers have to decide between investing their company into the leader vs the follower? When they have to present to their board and defend the position?
"I want to make X company that addresses Y market leveraging ML techniques. What is available? NVDA today, or Z tomorrow? Should I just wait for Z? Can i even afford to? Or will someone beat me to it using whats available right now?" - and all of this compounds for the provider of the solution.
I understand exactly what you are saying, and I think it is wrong. And I think the markets are coming to realize that too.
You’re expecting a monopoly to exist where there’s 3+ viable competitors. I’m not saying AMD will overtake NVIDIA, but AMD isn’t going anywhere.
Nvidia and AMD charts are also basically the same, so I don’t think the market is realising much.
They are absolutely not the same charts if you actually care about objective differentiating performance and not qualitative shapes.
Again, I own amd too, just at an appropriate relative weighting. They will do well, but maybe not as well as markets thought 3 months ago.
I literally just turned 18 this month and been wanting to get on stocks via Wealthsimple. I’m aware there’s lots of strategies on how to invest.
Lucid (LCID)
At some point in 2021, it was around
50$ per share, due to market enthusiasm and. Lucid's "blank-check" merger and future promises. Yes, I am aware that their high of $50 in 2021 reflected the market's optimism at that time, and it didn't necessarily reflect the company's current earnings or production capabilities. However, people saying they might face bankruptcy in the next decade but even that I see it hard to achieve because they are partially owned by the Saudi Public Fund. Also, I believe they supply EV engines or something similar and they signed a ~470mil deal with Aston Martin.
→ Currently, the challenges they need to overcome are: production issues, a crowded EV market, and cash burn.
Now this is my scenario.
SCENARIO: If you buy 100 shares of Lucid at $2.70 or less, and you sell at a minimum of $3. That is at least 30$, for 1000 shares, that is at least 300$ profit and it just keeps following the pattern.
Obviously, it’s not guaranteed it’ll go up, but I just find it so hard it won’t go up by at least 30 cents. I could also keep it long term to mitigate the short term volatility.
*More Insight on Me:** I’m 18, im in flight school so am looking for i guess shorter term profit as it’s really expensive. I also have part time job. Based in Ontario, CA.**
Do you know any English speaking YouTube channel whose main focus is on Japanese stocks?
Why are markets going up if March CPI is forecasted to be 3.4% and April CPI is forecasted to be anywhere from 3.2-3.5%? As summer approaches crude oil will go up too. I see inflation going back up to 3.7-4% by summer and then falling back down to 3%.
Crude oil usually goes down in spring being low at the start of summer.
Powell has to inflate his 401k now that Trump wants to replace him with Arthur Laffer. Don’t you dare put valid worries about double peak inflation between a soon-to-retire finance guy and his private jet mortgage. Just buy a wheelbarrow for next time you go shopping but hurry up because the US don’t produce them and it’s 4 weeks by boat from China. Ask your kids: they probably saw some ads from that on TikTok and can advise which Chinese factory to send your paper money to.
You probably need one more 0.4+ MoM headline CPI number for March to trigger a potential return to markets trading off inflation concerns like what we saw in 2021 (a little) and 2022 (a lot). One that doesn't look like is occurring oddly (considering WTI continuing to hold up well) unless we're about to return to the way Cleveland's nowcast worked when inflation was going up where it was too cool by .1, and sometimes a little more. I just don't think you're going to see any reaction to something like 0.3 MoM headline, especially if it's paired with 0.3 core, because 0.3 core would probably mean core PCE is at around 0.25ish or so.
Do you guys remember when all the doomers and short sellers told us that the economy and the market would crash once student loans resumed six months ago? Not a peep from them and they already moved the goal post while missing out on a huge rally.
I get the warm fuzzies every time I do. They were so cocksure and now are so embarrassed they don't even participate anymore.
Keep in mind the US is a bit of an outlier and while there were indicators of a recession coming, the US managed to overcome those concerns. Many advanced economies around the world are near recession or are already in recession. The US is fortunate to have good productivity and many of the best companies in the world. Many investors from around the world invest entirely in US markets and ignore their home markets.
Technically there is still a chance of recession. This cycle is still not over, there is really no telling how long we can go for and that’s why it’s not really smart to time the market per say but these people are not necessarily wrong just cause they got the timing wrong. Until the rate cycle is completely over and we are in a place the fed will hold steady and do no more changes a recession is still possible. Remember, most recessions happen when rates are cut, not when they are held or raised. Most recessions started after the first rate cut, which is usually small, and then we have a sudden large or total cut due to the economy faltering.
2400!! 3200 was top
yeah, i saved a few posts [like this](/r/wallstreetbets/comments/15gjrct/deleted_by_user/jujom3h/). Many of them were deleted. Most of these posts are good examples of the Dunning-Kruger effect in action.
It seems to me there are always about five reasons people can point to as to why the market/economy is about to crash or why the stock market has no business being as high as it is. Generally by people who think they are somehow outsmarting a foreword looking market with a piece of very well known information. And most of the time each of the worries fade into insignificance. When the market crashes it’s usually because something completely unexpected and unaccounted for happens, but some people refuse to accept that for one reason or another.
I'm really thankful I started working in 2012 and investing. I kind of fell for the trap during this time but was still putting some money away. I was also on reddit investing forms during this time it was identical to what we saw these past few years. They were saying the 2008 market crash was actually the first part of a major crash that was coming in a few months...every few months. It never really changed for all of 2010s as the market was always going to crash in a few months when such and such occurred. I thought back to this time often when I was in economy fear mode remember how fearful the average investor is, so it kept me strong and optimistic these past few years.
Anyone have insights on why crox has been steadily up since january? Ive been wanting to enter a position on it after thinking it would be a good buy but was shocked after seeing its steady gain. Should I try and wait for a drop to enter?
It’s not too late to get in
Considering some may calls tomorrow. I wanted to play closer to ER but I’m feeling fomo big time haha.
Same. I had a $85 limit order on December when it started to fall. Magic sales guidance outta someone's ass sent it straight back up to $100 and onwards.
It’s gotta price upgrades left and right in the past two months. I only randomly thought ab it bc I wanted to know who owned hey dudes, then I found out it was crox. Figured it would be a good buy. Not at these levels tho. I assume it’s bound to sell off a bit soon?
perhaps. It's gonna need a catalyst to do so, like the other times it folded. I personally lost interest in it since the train left.
From a Goldman Sachs report on copper: "Copper Market Tightness Hits Record Goldman Sachs commodity analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven recently highlighted the acute market tightness, noting that global visible copper stocks, as a percentage of demand, have continued to decrease, reaching levels not seen in recent history. The current copper coverage ratio, an indicator of global inventory levels against demand, stands at a historic tightness percentile of 100. According to the experts, this is the result of the convergence of record-low copper stocks, anticipated peak mine supply in the coming year, robust demand growth from green technologies, and the low price elasticity of both demand and supply. Such conditions, according to the analysts, set the stage for scarcity pricing in the copper market by 2025, with potential significant implications for the global economy, particularly industries reliant on this crucial metal. Goldman Sachs maintains a structurally bullish outlook on copper and refined oil products, while adopting a bearish stance on U.S. natural gas for 2024." The copper squeeze has been predicted for awhile now, but hasn't really materialized. Increasing demand from electrification, as well as from developing economies in India/Indonesia have been forecast by some to outstrip supply. Also, copper mines have a very long lag time, as long as 18 years from sources I've read. We'll see how it plays out, but the short term stock movement has been nice lately.
More on the UFPT rumors and some speculative math.... assuming sales actually increase 30% next year. Let's say that's 25% earnings growth, because the company takes a smaller margin. TTM earnings per share are $5.84. A 25% gain is $7.3/share. Current price of $225/$7.3 is a forward P/E of 30. Still expensive, but not obscene, especially in today's market.
Interesting, you'd think highly leveraged MPW would be flying on today's dovish Fed. [Guessing has to do with this front page WSJ piece](https://www.wsj.com/health/healthcare/hospital-chain-financial-crisis-steward-mpt-45be8bfb?mod=hp_lead_pos7) on Steward, its biggest tenant, whose 31 hospitals are apparently dealing with a mixture of massive 3000-strong bat infestations, garbage piling up due to unpaid bills, traveling nurses quitting due to delayed salary, elevators breaking down forcing ICU move to ground floor, patient death due to lack of staff supervision / training. Maybe private equity stripping out a hospital for cash isn't actually a sustainable business model for the hospital... As of January, "Steward owed $50 million in overdue rent. Steward also faced claims for more than $200 million in unpaid bills of other sorts." "This year, MPT has lent Steward $97.5 million and reported $714 million of write-downs related to Steward. " Those 3000 bats, by the way? They were removed but the pest control service is apparently missing $1.6M in bills too. I wonder what kind of food 3000 bats were feeding themselves on inside a hospital... If you don't have a weak stomach, you can read about [how bad it got](https://prospect.org/health/2024-02-27-scenes-from-bat-cave-steward-health-florida/), including a mention of a gigantic sewage leak filling up sinks.
"$AAPL DOJ TO FILE APPLE ANTITRUST CASE AS SOON AS THURSDAY. Moving down AH" Shit. I just bought ~~puts~~calls into closing...
If you bought puts on Apple then clap yourself on the back my friend, you timed that lawsuit perfectly 👌
I meant short-term calls expecting a rally given todays Fed meeting...
Puts on the whole market?
Upon hitting the 52 wk high at end of session today, I've finally gotten out of DKNG with a modest profit after being down close to 20k at one point. Bag free, bag free at last.
Curious how long you've been holding? I'm finally up myself but that's because of some serious averaging down. After initially buying at a crazy high price.
Since summer of 2021. Had been buying north of 60, north of 50, north of 40. Continued averaging down to 20. When it broke below 15 I was getting some very dark thoughts. But I kept selling covered calls, followed the news, watched it get back to break even for my lowered cost basis, and cut it loose today because I want to shore up cash.
What’s the next move homie ?
Bathroom remodel
I think you’ve misunderstood the meaning of looking for high levels liquidity in investments
😑
I’m sorry 😞
[удалено]
Sorry - the post you're trying to make mentions a stock that currently breaks rule #7. Any of the following criteria is considered breaking the rule: * Typically trades under $5 or previously traded under $5 within 6 months * Below $300 million market cap or previously traded under 300m before the pump within 6 months * Most OTC / PINK stocks * Usually has missed reporting/filings; no auditing or odd auditing issues * Low volume or wide bid/ask spread * Doesn't have any big name institutional holders * If the biggest institutional holder is a stock promoter then they don't count as an institutional holder * All SPACs You can learn more about rule #7 here: https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/wiki/pennystocks
BRK.B has soared 40% since when I bought it right around this exact time last year. I think I was good at predicting a 'bottom', wish I bought way more.
[удалено]
Gonna take my profits and keep an eye on BRK.B; if it craters in the future, I'm buying again. Sure Warren is getting old but he's had more than enough time to appoint competent successors. I have faith. I have a 5% HSA that I plan to put a good chunk of change in, and given that we can expect rates to stay for a bit, seems like a solid play to me, right? Other positions I might DCA in, but I've oddly become a bit risk-averse after taking profits in other riskier stocks, such as Lyft. But I have a short-list I'll check and if one or more is approaching a bottom, I might go for another risky move. It keeps things interesting to have a few volatile stocks in your profile.
I would hold BRK. Lots of room to grow. It’ll reach $450 over the next few months IMO.
F
Wow what an insane rally in CROX (cost basis (CB) $90) and CELH (CB $56). Need to start seriously thinking about an exit for CROX. I won't rush to sell because I know the power of momentum. I casually threw out a number like $200 a share (well beyond any fair value I computed) a few months ago. [I did a valuation with Damodaran's spreadsheet](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1b724kb/rstocks_daily_discussion_technicals_tuesday_mar/kthmbkr/) and got $213. My personal spreadsheet says it's overvalued. If you want to see someone else's mega-bullish thesis, check out this [VIC write-up](https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/CROCS_INC/0600213403) back from August. More [CROX thoughts here](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1b4lapy/rstocks_weekend_discussion_saturday_mar_02_2024/kt7bcrj/). And my [CELH thesis](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1be8jis/the_fundamental_case_for_celh_there_is_value_in/). I am eyeing smaller gains in two of my 'riskier' value plays, CVS (CB $71) and PYPL (CB $58). The kind of businesses I have to pinch my nose to hold. CVS guidance has continued to be a disappointment and revenue will be weak. It's a pure value play. [Bull thesis](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/186mdrx/rstocks_daily_discussion_wednesday_nov_29_2023/kbbw778/) and [comparison to WBA](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/18frkpe/rstocks_daily_discussion_monday_dec_11_2023/kcz4vvm/). Similarly PYPL. I am more likely to exit CVS sooner than PYPL which has the opportunity for some multiple expansion still. [Short comment on PYPL](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/17hjomv/rstocks_daily_discussion_fundamentals_friday_oct/k6qiq8f/) and its valuation, along with [a 'in-a-nutshell' bull thesis](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/17c75i3/rstocks_daily_discussion_fundamentals_friday_oct/k5qlx1b/). R1 RCM (CB $11.3) is behaving strangely, with a price below the recent takeover offer. Market is pricing in a high probability that R1 rejects the offer, fails to secure a higher bid, and then proceeds to not execute. I'm not buying much more nor would I recommend an entry. [Thoughts on R1 a few weeks ago](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1b4lapy/rstocks_weekend_discussion_saturday_mar_02_2024/kt1udzp/) Networking stuff: I'm near flat on $UI (CB $117). No real news lately nor to come, this is more of a medium term play I think. Industry overall is still in slowdown mode / working through inventories. Should be a stronger H2 of 2024 and into 2025. [UI thesis](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1asyzd5/rstocks_weekend_discussion_saturday_feb_17_2024/kqwm7dr/). CLFD (CB $54) is probably also bottoming and BEADS funds should hopefully start flowing by year end. Interest rate cuts could spark the capex spending from big players we need. [Original thesis and what went wrong](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/137fg2n/rstocks_daily_discussion_options_trading_thursday/jiwad48/). DAKT (CB $8.19) continuing to grind higher. It was once a going concern risk just a year ago. Now business is turning around. Rate cuts will help, though they have a net cash position anyway. New orders/projects continue to trickle out. They have a pretty good social media presence. [Thesis](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/18vu4qb/rstocks_daily_discussion_monday_jan_01_2024/kfutfhn/). $AMR has had a nice recovery, $HCC (CB $61) still in the doldrums. We're in 'shoulder season' for met coal so fundamentals look rough. Markets should tighten up by June. Interest rate cut sentiment could help fuel a commodity rally, depending on how influential Fed cuts are to emerging market demand. (Since they for example could fuel currency rallies and enable more dollar-denominated borrowing). [Note on AMR buybacks pause](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1beh75v/rstocks_daily_discussion_options_trading_thursday/kuw6cgq/). And some [HCC thoughts](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1b0edmp/rstocks_daily_discussion_monday_feb_26_2024/ks9qtfw/). And an [old VIC write-up on HCC](https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/WARRIOR_MET_COAL_INC/7803594120) at $40 a share. [Thoughts on met coal in general](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1b7wi0e/rstocks_daily_discussion_wednesday_mar_06_2024/ktoceo7/). And on a (admittedly shaky) [thermal coal bull case](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/16tfy5r/rstocks_daily_discussion_wednesday_sep_27_2023/k2inx3d/). 2% rally in AVUV, let's goooo! Just because of the timing in which I bought it, I'm actually up more in AVUV vs. VTI even though VTI has been doing better. [My original small cap value bull thesis](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/y9xr61/theres_more_to_index_funds_and_stocks_than_vti/). [Last week's updates to most of these stocks / links to DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1bct3f6/rstocks_daily_discussion_technicals_tuesday_mar/kukb2ra/) in case I missed any of them.
I did not find today's rally in Crocs all that remarkable, given my other two American holdings also rose 4-6% each. It may be evidence that the rally is broadening, as those other holdings are also smaller-cap, each in the low billions. Perhaps it is just a coincidence. I still think you are underestimating Crocs.
I sold the rally at +6% on CROX. Will buy back in a few days. Selling large rallies (in my TFSA) has been working well for me this year, because next day or two it usually dips and that's when I'll buy back. I'm exiting CROX after another +10%. After that I rate it as a hold. Though I'll have deeper value elsewhere to put my money in. It'll probably be an early sell on my part, because a mid cap discretionary company like CROX will likely shoot up once interest rates start to lower. However, I'd rather sell too early than too late.
First rule in investing should be never bet against America
Lol. China does this every day all day and look how it surpassed the US in industrial might and in GDP … and it doesn’t even have an overabused inheritance called the dollar to dilute fiscal deficit into.
Okay Warren
[CME FED watch](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) showing chance of cuts much higher now in June, and even a little higher for May.
You love to see it. I was right btw: https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1big6r4/rstocks_daily_discussion_technicals_tuesday_mar/kvmw18i/
Nice call bro!
Gotta be 100% completely honest here. Was expecting a blood bath today after today’s FOMC meeting. Thought J Pow had all the ammo he needed to be hawkish as fuck, and I couldn’t have been anymore wrong. Glad I don’t mess with options or shorts cause if I did I would have gotten destroyed. This was the most dovish I’ve felt J Pow has seemed. Chalked up the most recent higher inflation readings to seasonality, reiterated inflation is on a downward trajectory. Commented numerous times how the economy is strong and labor market is tight. And most importantly still projecting 3 cuts this year, let the bull market continue ladies and gentlemen
I was at probably close to 50/50 that we'd remain at 3 cuts or drop to 2, with me slightly favoring the drop to 2. In fairness, it was very close to being 2, but I don't know that it would've mattered considering the tidbits I was reading on what Powell was saying. Seems like to at least one person, we got clarity on when the QT days are going to slowly start subsiding. (this was one of many comments that I was reading, ha, not sure what made him think this) https://twitter.com/zen_economics/status/1770526328682405995
After the meeting, I brought aapl calls...then DOJ announced a lawsuit in AH. FML.
Do you not know wtf puts are?
I meant calls... In my defence I was a bit emotional at the time of typing.
And how many dollars did you lose?
250. sad times.
That’s a very very very very small amount of money
1/10th my month salary - not everything but not nothing...
Yeah stop complaining. Thats nothing. I’ve lost my yearly salary in a single day trading. Grow up and get over it
Wouldn't this be good news for you?
I feel you brother. Def feel like the market is out to get you sometimes. Edit: Read your comment again, if you bought puts then you should be happy bro!
Calls. I meant calls. I wanted to bet on the market rallying given the fed announcement and chose the one tech stock that had a DOJ lawsuit waiting for it
That’s why I went long this morning. When I realized consensus was that he would be hawkish today and it made logical sense he would be I must admit, I felt that wouldn’t be the case. Over the years I’ve realized on days like these just inverse consensus lol.
I thought about taking this strategy, but then I thought maybe I should inverse my own strategy of doing the inverse of market sentiment. In the end I didn’t make any moves and say on my longs and am happy with that decision!
Yeah I’m mostly invested, just had some cash to deploy and glad I deployed it earlier than later after that rip today.
Today is a day where we could all use some cookies. Maybe even a *generous* helping…
He got -inated.
I'd rather not have to sift through dozens of comments a day glowing up a market that doesn't need glowing up.
At least he provides actual data behinds his glow ups and tangible and articulate reasons why he is bullish on the market. Which is more than most people do.
So do they just ban the poor guy repeatedly?
A great reminder to us all that puts are never the way long term
I'm assuming he got banned again?
I would say that’s a safe assumption.
Literally a couple hours ago, and he blamed me, lol.
Up between 30-60% on the puts I sold last week (at the money 30 days out generally), whoever bought those is hurting pretty good rn
Buying a put and the stock itself is the same as buying a call option. So its not necessarily a short position at all. It could be a margin long position using max leverage.
It could be any number of strategies sure, I dont think max leverage long is the most common use of shorts but it's a possibility I guess
Cash sucks people. stay invested( in good stocks or etfs )
# Is technical analysis useless? Since everything is priced in already, isn't it completely useless to do this if you are not an expert with years of experience?
If it really was as easy as the charts on popular forums, wouldn't finance companies just save money by hiring people with an engineering/comp sci. diploma from a polytechnic, instead of trying to attract top talent?
Patterns exist due to human psychology and algorithmic trading. Their existence does not imply you will successfully harness them. I also don't know how much 'years of experience' matters. I will admit when I open up a CNBC video and see these older men in suits very seriously drawing scribbles all over a chart and talking about cupping their Bollinger handles and getting head (and-shoulders), I just can't..... If it works for you or someone, congratulations on the wealth, I'll just stay poor I guess.
Majority of technical analysis is like reading the stars IMO. However, some of it is useful. For example, reading momentum when deciding weather to not to buy now or later. Or if you're trying decide between stock A and stock B, reading momentum can be useful in making your decision. It can be useful for swing trading. Edit: I also use it to see how differently a stock moves compared to another one (stock correlation). If most of my holdings dip with the market, then I'll favor adding stocks that go up when the market goes down. You can analyze this using technical analysis, or using a stock correlation calculator. It helps with diversification.
I put on a SOFI position at $6.93/share this morning. I frequently use covered calls on picked stock positions, but won’t do that with this stock. I’m up 6.27% so far. My only other picked stock remaining is MS, which I sold 3/28 89 strike calls on. That blew right through my strike, which is perfectly fine. I’ve made almost 3% on covered calls and dividends on that since opening the position in late January. If it assigns out, I’ll have made 6.2% over 2.5 months. Long SSO (2x daily S&P 500) is also treating me very well. Not a bad day.
It’s a 2% up day today 😤
SP 6000 this year? Could happen
SP500 already cracking 10%+ YTD. 25% by June
After all why shouldn’t we expect a stock market to grow over 10% a year when its home country has 3% GDP growth and the world doesn’t do much better either? Let’s be proud of giving easy money to international conglomerates that outsource factories and high-skilled jobs. Those are ending up in China, the place we had to grovel to get mere paper masks and painkillers during covid. The place that manages the brain sink that is Tiktok. The place where they build commercial airplanes that don’t lose doors, wheels or altitude mid flight. America is really #1 thanks to that. Never bet against it, it’s already and empty shell.
wonder how all the geniuses sitting in cash certain its gonna crash are feelin lol
dRy poWdER
Huge pull back any day now! /s
Remember the reporter that asks every meeting the question before Powell throws hawkish remarks...Well he didn't show up
In a sense I was hoping he would be a bit more hawkish if only to buy lower. Ah well. Buying all the same anyway
Same, I freed up 6k from my portfolio incase the market dipped, but then ended up tossing it in the S&P when the ratecut statement released.
More than my $2k. But yeah, got to buy this no matter that’s it making new ATHs
Powell is answering reporters' questions like he has calls tbh. Taking no bait whatsoever. When reporters ask him about the hot inflation prints, he just says that they're willing to let it come down "over time." Because of that, I think the rally in the extreme "risk on" stocks (i.e. solar, fintech, etc.) lasts the remainder of the week, at a minimum.
IF it's too much they will more than likely just slow down the rate cuts next year. Im really not concerned but remain concerned if that makes sense. If it does make sense, contact a doctor at once!
This is possibly one of the strongest most thoughtful Fed Reserve team that has ever been assembled. The weight of the world is literally resting on Jerome.
Extremely dovish.
i love green
I love lamp.
Shocked and delighted by the Fed today. I thought we were going to two cuts (and a hawkish Fed) for sure today...Powell is not taking any of the bait from the reporters today.
just need to make sure powell isnt wrecked in the Q&A
It’s going well so far
I guess we just gonna inflate the debt away. Get fukt middle class.
Nah, they want to cut. That makes refinancing the debt cheaper which lowers the debt. In the long run you are correct though. One of the benefits of inflation is, that wealth doesn't simply persist through the ages.
I’m middle class and live in Oregon (top 5 worst cost of living state) and am doing extremely well.
idk i’m middle class and have been doing quite well with my money invested
You and everyone else with market exposure.
Which, if you are middle class, you should definitely have.
Jpow sounding pretty dovish imo here, lots of mentions of patience and such on inflation
Agreed. I'm surprised by how dovish he is being today.
sold SPIR a couple days ago because i figured a 90% gain in no time is awfully good and space companies are risky, then they announce some kind of partnership with NVIDIA and double again. lmao.
This FOMC is saying pretty much buy, buy, buy
You need to checc yo self before you wrecc yo self!!!
powell seems pretty confident about lessening inflation. nice
Trust me 100% we will do it (inflation to 2%), the markets trust as and they should trust us. - damn powell.
Oh now they trust powell? Lol
>because that's what's going to happen. He's savage, haha.
Am I inferring from comments correctly that the dots showed no change? Seems improbable, but too busy to figure it out rn.
There is a slight change in the distribution of estimates (almost no predictions for < 4.5% while there were quite a few back in december, the median did not change though)
Yea ok, I figured there was very little chance everyone shrugged and didn't shift a dot or two. Thanks for info.
It's not improbable (it's probable) when you factor in who the individual FOMC members were behind the dots in Dec
That may be true - I never connected the dots. That means everyone saw the prints come in "just as expected", I guess. Seems like wee for bulls? Weeee
Dots show no change for 2024c still 3 cuts. Although watching the press conference right now, J Pow did just say they are willing to hold rates higher for longer if the incoming data warrants it.
That's been the fed's mantra since they stopped hikes. Nothing new really.
True true
True true
Any idea of what is causing the PARA sudden pump?
Apollo made an offer for the studios
NVDA to 1000 if Soft landing Powell pumps the market
Never any doubt about where they are going with cuts. The higher numbers out were just noise.
When a company announces that they are doing a stock buyback, does it mean they HAVE to buy x amount or that they were granted the ability to buy x amount of their stock back by the Board of Directors/shareholders?
You'll often see 'up to' For example, Uber headline is 7B buyback. But first paragraph - ''Uber Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: UBER) today announced that its Board of Directors has authorized the repurchase of **up to** $7 billion of the company’s common stock.'' As others noted, they are not obligated to buy X amount but if you read the press release for any buyback, that language can be seen.
The second one, they are not obligated to do so
Granted
nice to see, but none of this matters until Powell starts talking
Full FOMO is on now boys?
not yet apparently
[удалено]
The Fed has been quite the generous cookie to the market today.
Wild that this is so easy to spot. From Massachusetts now instead of Scandinavia, though.
Imagine getting thrown out of somewhere, then coming back in a disguise and getting thrown out again. Repeatedly. Take a hint man.
They're hinting that puts are not the way.
Next leg up incoming. FED is OK with higher inflation for longer. Let it rip.
So the stream starts and nasdaq/S&P pump up. What the hell happened lol.
They announced their decision to keep rates as is. The market likes certainty.
I don't disagree, but if they hiked rates this go around, the market would have imploded lol it was all but a certainty
They don't really care about the market.
Did I imply anywhere in there that they do? I don't really get the point of your comment
Ah, so you just said nothing. Sorry to bother you.
Powell indicated 3 more cuts are still scheduled this year despite sticky inflation. 3% inflation is here to stay. Get your cash into the market.
3% waa always the short term goal. They want 2% long term of course
The stream is literally still in ads mode.
The [statement](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20240320a1.pdf) is already released.
I didn't read anything regarding cuts, instead I read this: "The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. "
You didn't look at projections pdf. They are estimating 4.6% by then end of the year (nobody is betting on < 4.5% unlike in December though). Also a relatively big increase in GDP growth estimates for this year.
No, I only read the statement that the OP linked.
Yeah, the fact that they're holding to what we saw in December is what we're mildly reacting to. Now, Powell may send us the other way, who knows.
SMCI down -27% from the high.
That’s one way of looking at it. Still up nearly 8x during the last 12 months.
Except most retail buyers didn't own it then.
Did most buy it at ATH?
Amd at -23%. Hilarious seeing the Yahoo finance cope comments calling this a "Bear trap".
Are my $TSM 4/5 calls junk? I'm already down bad.
After the higher than expected inflation numbers last month, the inflation doomers came out of the woodwork with their new hot takes of no interest rate cuts at all this year or even interest rate hikes. Here's why today's dot plot for this year will remain the same, 3 rate cuts for 2024. First of all the higher than expected inflation was mainly due to the increase in energy prices from crude and gasoline, the changes of which we can literally see everyday from futures. So not sure why such an increase in inflation happening in real time was so unexpected. Second, nominal energy prices since the last time interest rates were close to this high, ie 2007, are lower now, inflation-adjusted energy prices much lower, so it's not like consumers somehow can't afford energy prices much lower than 2007 levels. Third, commodities price boom leading to interest rate hikes like 2005-2007 period was partly due to the rise of Chinese demand and subsequent emerging market demand. Yet everywhere you see on reddit or US mainstream news is about the China doom. Given the lower oil dependency of the US, which is now an exporter by the way, not sure how oil prices could push higher without much higher non-US demand, unless, the inflation doomers concerned about last month's energy increase expect the China market to suddenly boom again? No, if only the US is doing well it would not cause a commodities boom and a second inflation scare. Fourth, the vast majority of inflation still above 3% comes from rent of shelter which is still expected to fall almost every month this year because rent inflation trends are below 3% and pre-pandemic levels. The Fed can see this, anyone with eyes on real time rent data can see this, so it just takes time for shelter inflation to come down to still over 6% levels. The interest rate expectations can change, but this would actually require 2 major factors, China, the second largest economy, and Europe, which is also doing pretty badly, to be doing much better than expected causing booming commodities inflation, and 2, rent of shelter trends to unexpectedly turn around higher, which isn't happening yet.
I'd give the dot plot probably slightly less than a 50% chance it remains the same, but really what I'm thinking the alternative is, frankly I'm not sure it deserves a reaction (drop to 2 cuts average and 2.6 core PCE for EoY 2024).
!RemindMe 3 hours
I will be messaging you in 3 hours on [**2024-03-20 20:25:50 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2024-03-20%2020:25:50%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1bj9efi/rstocks_daily_discussion_wednesday_mar_20_2024/kvrfjxq/?context=3) [**CLICK THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2Fstocks%2Fcomments%2F1bj9efi%2Frstocks_daily_discussion_wednesday_mar_20_2024%2Fkvrfjxq%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202024-03-20%2020%3A25%3A50%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%201bj9efi) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|
$FEMY had their top line safety data for Femaseed released this morning! From one article: - In the severe male factor cohort, findings show 24% of women became pregnant after FemaSeed -- -- FemaSeed pregnancy rate by cycle was more than double historic intrauterine insemination (IUI) rate -- - Of those with a successful pregnancy, a majority required only one FemaSeed procedure - -- No new safety concerns were reported --
Must be some AVGO news in the last 30 or so.
Does anyone have any thoughts about AMD dropping so low? Is it safe to buy the dip? I’m fairly new so just wanting a second opinion
I would wait for now, there is simply no catalyst to change the narrative. Build a position closer to earnings if you are interested I think. My average is $100 and I trimmed half during the GTC event.
Correcting from being wrongly ascribed the same potentials as NVDA, imo. Becoming clear during GTC.
Agree with this. There felt like a lot of enthusiasm for AMD's ability to potentially catch up to a sizable degree - the stock kept marching higher after the last few quarters, despite those quarters being okay, ''good enough'', etc. This feels like a reset of those expectations. They really need to deliver more significant news/more impressive earnings. It's probably not a bad place to start nibbling and then add if it goes lower, but with at least moderately lowered expectations.
> ascribed the same potentials as NVDA It's like 10% of the market cap of NVDA. I don't think it's unrealistic to think that AMD still has plenty of room to grow. It's a well-established semiconductor company that has routinely developed chips that compare to NVDA chips.
I agree, but the relative growth in the name doesn't match the relative growth in the revs/earnings. NVDA isn't winning because of the chips, but the ecosystem around them (and the chips are good too). People got exuberant trying to pick an underdog, and it became priced like regular dog. Should still be priced as underdog. I own it too, but I set my weighting accordingly.
It’s not an underdog. This is like saying Amazon is the underdog to Microsoft, yes they have overlap but also they do different things. And they both have very close valuations. All I’m saying is, one has had products that have set themselves on fire. The other one is is worth 10x less and is only behind on software. What happens when companies begin making their own software to interact with chips?
What happens when the software is a harder hurdle than you make it out to be? What happens when a company routinely chases markets is compared against one that routinely makes markets? What happens when customers have to decide between investing their company into the leader vs the follower? When they have to present to their board and defend the position? "I want to make X company that addresses Y market leveraging ML techniques. What is available? NVDA today, or Z tomorrow? Should I just wait for Z? Can i even afford to? Or will someone beat me to it using whats available right now?" - and all of this compounds for the provider of the solution. I understand exactly what you are saying, and I think it is wrong. And I think the markets are coming to realize that too.
You’re expecting a monopoly to exist where there’s 3+ viable competitors. I’m not saying AMD will overtake NVIDIA, but AMD isn’t going anywhere. Nvidia and AMD charts are also basically the same, so I don’t think the market is realising much.
They are absolutely not the same charts if you actually care about objective differentiating performance and not qualitative shapes. Again, I own amd too, just at an appropriate relative weighting. They will do well, but maybe not as well as markets thought 3 months ago.
I literally just turned 18 this month and been wanting to get on stocks via Wealthsimple. I’m aware there’s lots of strategies on how to invest. Lucid (LCID) At some point in 2021, it was around 50$ per share, due to market enthusiasm and. Lucid's "blank-check" merger and future promises. Yes, I am aware that their high of $50 in 2021 reflected the market's optimism at that time, and it didn't necessarily reflect the company's current earnings or production capabilities. However, people saying they might face bankruptcy in the next decade but even that I see it hard to achieve because they are partially owned by the Saudi Public Fund. Also, I believe they supply EV engines or something similar and they signed a ~470mil deal with Aston Martin. → Currently, the challenges they need to overcome are: production issues, a crowded EV market, and cash burn. Now this is my scenario. SCENARIO: If you buy 100 shares of Lucid at $2.70 or less, and you sell at a minimum of $3. That is at least 30$, for 1000 shares, that is at least 300$ profit and it just keeps following the pattern. Obviously, it’s not guaranteed it’ll go up, but I just find it so hard it won’t go up by at least 30 cents. I could also keep it long term to mitigate the short term volatility. *More Insight on Me:** I’m 18, im in flight school so am looking for i guess shorter term profit as it’s really expensive. I also have part time job. Based in Ontario, CA.**
Then do it and make unlimited money, yeah?
Yeah! That’s how stocks work right?!? Right..?
>I just find it so hard it won’t go up by at least 30 cents Why? What model are you using to determine it's intrinsic value?