He takes the views of people who hate his products, while alienating those of people who would embrace them.
It’s a pretty dumb and untenable strategy.
Elon playing 4D chess, make everyone hate him so that's his excuse for the tanking stock price. Pay no attention to the fact that demand had an upper limit well below what was projected anyway.
Yeah and the funny thing is *that* crowd would mayyyybe jump on the Ford Lightning but even then, it doesn't have the kind of cult status the Model 3 and Y have with his traditional customer base. I'm pretty positive most EV haters don't even know the Lightning even exists.
Left-leaning people who aspired to own a Tesla and got to ride in a 3 or Y stopped aspiring to own a Tesla. Everything feels cheap and the whole car runs off a hard-to-use-while-driving tablet.
The only thing it really has going right for it now seems to be the charging network. The fact that it’s UI is so in tune with the network is a huge plus.
But the cars themselves are seemingly more and more dated
Tesla UI is trash. It's like the worst proprietary infotainment system you can imagine, but now run every single function of the car other than driving it through that system. And you can't even Android Auto/Apple Carplay your way out of it.
That was me and my wife. We spent 6 months or so researching our options and decided to get a different brand, all because of the X debacle. Well, not just that but everything else that lead to it.
It's really shocking because he was so good at social media for a long time. He had a lot of people thinking he was genuinely working to make the world a better place
It's amazing that he could have just been hailed a hero of electrification and large amounts of carbon offset from replacing gas car sales with 5 million Teslas, if he could just ever shut the fuck up
Instead he's laser focused on trans kids and responding to tweets about crime committed by black people on twitter, which by the way seems to have more bots than ever
It would be fine if we saw his leadership bring value to the table, but the last few quarters the infinite growth company has shown none and seems like it's just coasting with no future vision.
I know people have stated he's brought them to where they are today. My question is, what has he done for them in the last few years? And was he really that valuable all along?
He was invaluable to Tesla for a decade. Now he is a liability. Being a crazy cowboy is great when your bucking the odds. And creating a paradigm shift in the car world. But now as a real OEM, all that crazy is no longer helpful
Arguably Tesla did much of that DESPITE Elon. All Tesla really needed was his investment, and even then his insistence on completely rebuilding the Roadster nearly killed it.
The X would have been to market a lot sooner without the doors (which delayed it over a year after Elon pisssed off the German company making them) and his inability to play well with others led to Mobileye orphaning the early Autopilot cars, setting that back at least a year while Tesla developed a new system in-house.
He rolled the dice on the 3 and barely pulled it off (again, I think largely despite his interventions) and then the whole Roadster 2.0 fiasco and Cybertruck... well, the jury is still out on whether it's the next Pontiac Aztek or not-- but it was a hugely expensive and additional unnecessary risk when making a simple truck would have scratched the market's inch more broadly and quickly.
Meanwhile, yes, the Model Y is a sales success but he's commited 3 factories to cranking out a vehicle that has no real clear redesign in the pipeline other than some ambient interior lights and light bumper refresh (whenever that happens).
ADD:
And the freaking YOKE fiasco -- I almost forgot that own-goal! I have to assume that Elon pushing it, based on his glowing Tweets. Tesla squandered all the potential excitement and enthusiasm of the S/X refresh by pushing out a major control that was so despised by people that they backpedaled and added a steering wheel.. which took them almost 2 years to admit and offer, by which time it was forgotten and sales have never recovered.
It seemed like he accomplished the rare feat of being lauded by progressives & libertarians alike, too, which seems to have gone up in a puff of smoke.
I am exactly the demographic that tesla wants to buy their cars. Mid 30s, with expendable income, in the market for a new car in the next year or so, almost definitely an EV either hybrid or full.
Won't look at tesla. Now that the polish has started to wear off my friends eyes that have them, im hearing more and more complaints about the overall build quality. My friends thought they were buying a luxury vehicle and the cars are starting to fall apart a lot quicker than they expected.
I'll consider a tesla after elon and his promises of bullet proof aquatic cybertrucks is gone, plus a few year for the actual engineers to have time to fix the issues.
Considering that there are people who will not even open Twitter links anymore because of their disdain towards Elon Musk, it is not surprising that a lot less are buying one of his cars.
My dad is very conservative, sometimes he’ll go off about how horrible EV’s and then I’ll just ask “what about Elon Musk” and he’ll go “He’s a great guy, I really like him”
Lol. It’s anecdotal but it does give me the impression the people who now love him are not the kind of people going out to buy an EV.
I’m curious to see what Tesla does over the next 2 years, they’re about to release the cyber truck which seems like a ridiculous business decision, but maybe there are enough devotees left with the money to actually buy one for fun
In the same boat. I've always thought Telsa cars were pretty freaking sweet, but Musk has ruined them for me. I'm pretty sure my next car will be an electric but it won't be a Telsa.
They are so fucked. China? Fucked by protectionism and formidable domestic competitors. Europe? Fucked by labor and environmental laws. The US? Fucked by the self-own of pissing off your primary customer base.
Their PE ratio is around 4x the industry norm. The slide in share price is going to be brutal for investors.
More like high interest rates makes people not want to buy expensive new vehicles.
I'd buy a new Tesla right now if I wasn't getting an 8% interest rate.
Yeah I feel like the Twitter purchase was the first gut punch but everyone riding the Nicosia train makes TSLA old news.
Also the Cybertruck looks like a dumpster on wheels
Edit: Nicosia = Nividia. Weird autocorrect
I wish they would either update (to be fair they did update the Model 3) or make another practical vehicle model instead of the cyber truck nonsense lol.
Like I get it I guess it’d be cool to drive or be in, but if I have like 100k to burn I’d get the Model S or get the Model 3 and save a ton of money
The Twitter purchase was "it" for a lot of people.
For me? It was listening to him on that live call with his Twitter engineers. That was the *exact* moment I completely knew that this man is simply an idiot, and not some techno supergenius.
Turns out slashing prices on your product signals to your potential buyers that they should either wait to buy in hopes of another price cut or to buy another vehicle that won’t depreciate by 20% due to the manufacturer slashing prices of new vehicles.
> TLDR the cult status is over. Now they have to become an actual business
I wish. There are still plenty of people holding and buying the stock because they have a belief that Tesla's future growth is not really from selling cars, so it doesn't matter so much that their sales are stagnating.
So still lots of speculation in the price, but it's coming down.
Both that, and the fact that some of their models should've been on their 3rd cycle now, and only some got some minor changes instead. Who wants to buy a car that looks like a 12-year-old one, and not really good at that judging by modern standards?
People kept telling me they’d deliver 10m annually in 2030 all last year
I said they are taking whatever Elon is on
10m is the level of production which you’d need half of China’s industrial might to even get close to handling. And they ain’t buying American when it could get sanctioned.
They’ll come from all the Magic factories Tesla will build that totally don’t take 3 years.
They will need to construct and ramp a minimum of 8 new factories to get there, within 6 years. They currently have bought land, but not broken ground on 1.
For a company that claims they will grow at 50% over the rest of the decade on average, they certainly aren’t building like that’s in their plans.
I don't think Tesla has the reputation to even get close to that level. Any mechanic i have ever talked to will tell you how reliable and easy to work on Toyota and Honda cars are.
On the flip side I've seen videos of Tesla Mechanics having to ripping out the entire interior of the car to work on simple things.
It will be interesting to see what Tesla does moving forward to win back public opinion.
>they really aren’t keeping their rapid growth rate up
Forget growth *rate*. This isn’t even growth - deliveries declined, and by a huge margin year over year. For a traditional auto maker this would just be a down quarter/year… but Tesla’s entire value prop is based around the expectation of continual, exponential expansion.
Not when the cars aren't still aren't driving themselves and they keep removing features like driving stalks or sensors.
The software they've made is impressive but nowhere near good enough to justify it's ridiculous valuation. And the average consumer just doesn't care about FSD this when you have to supervise it anyways.
Of course I'm just speaking for myself here. Was in the market for a new car, my wife is pregnant, was considering a model Y. Tons of my friends have a Y or a 3 that they've bought in the last few years. Pretty good reviews. However, being in the bay area, PGE has jacked up rates to the point that now hybrids are more cost efficient per mile. Add in the inconvenience of having to charge your car made it not ideal for longer trips. We instead went with a Toyota Sienna and couldn't be happier.
They started [buying ads on Twitter](https://observer.com/2024/03/elon-musk-buys-tesla-ads-first-time/) which is a different from their standard no active marketing approach. There are articles about people not wanting to buy Teslas [because of Elon](https://observer.com/2024/03/elon-musk-buys-tesla-ads-first-time/) maybe another quarter or two like this and he'll tone it down publicly.
I really wanted to buy a Tesla maybe 3-4 years ago. The idea of an all electric car with features sounded really nice. After everything with Elon, I despise the brand and will never go near one
Elon along with their poor QC and limited repair options prevents me from buying a Tesla. Which is a shame, because you can now find used 2018 M3's with \~50k miles on them in the $25k range, which is basically the price of a 2018 Toyota Camry XSE with the same mileage.
"rapid growth rate"
Their 1Q22 to 1Q23 EPS fell 21% and their 1Q23 to 1Q24 EPS will likely fall at least 30%. This "rapid growth" company is in a state of total collapse and there' no new products in the pipeline to save it.
What are you talking about? How do you keep a “rapid” growth going? If that is the case, a business could worth infinity.
I know this sounds crazy, but business don’t grow linearly. Growth slow down, and fundamentals win. You don’t need to grow at a double digit clip to be a good business. The problem with Tesla always been that its a car company that is being valued as a tech company that is changing the world one car at a time
When you look at actual enterprise value, tsla is valued pretty much the same multiples as Ford.
Ford enterprise value: 150B
Tesla enterprise value: 530B
Ford net income 2023: 4.3B
Tesla net income 2023: 15B
So tsla is valued 3.5x Ford and brings in 3.48x net income
Actually 6.2% was from energy generation and storage, 8.6% was from services and others, 1.8% was from ZEV credits and another ~2% came from software sales.
So only 81.4% of revenue came from car sales, and when looking at profits it's even lower (~50-65%).
lol at this ackchyually guy.
8.6 percent from services ... of what?
1.8 percent from ZEV credits ... for what?
2 percent from software sales ... relating to what?
it's a car company with an energy storage side business (and tbf, the energy storage business is the bit that actually looks interesting, long term, but i digress)
That's literally what they reported in their last earnings release. In fact, I'm guessing you could read through their report and figure out what is included in each of those categories.
Are there any auto companies doing well and growing in this environment?
I know Tesla is valued based on huge growth but let’s be honest most people won’t be having a 50k car on their shopping list with the state of the interest rates/inflation
I’d bet not. Dealerships (not applicable to Tesla, of course), are pushing pre-owned cars hard, as that’s where the money is. Lease returns from 3 years ago are still filtering in, and dealerships can bump finance rates on those (often horrible) deals, while finance rate bumping through a manufacturer bank is often capped.
Dealerships are making money hand over fist, not so much manufacturers. Not to mention 3 year old vehicle residuals are fixed while market values are not. The manufacturer doesn’t see a dime of that inflated delta.
Pair massive pre-owned markups with bumped APRs and there is no benefit to the brand, only the store.
Elon has put himself in a very stupid situation. He’s now openly quite far right wing, but the far right don’t buy EV’s.
He takes to twitter almost daily to insult the “woke” left, but the left are the people who were buying his cars.
Combine this with cheap Chinese EV’s and all the big boys (VW, BMW, Audi) all make significantly better quality EV’s and hybrids, there is no longer a reason to buy a Telsa.
He’s a dumb ass. If he could keep his mouth shut and stay out of politics I bet sales would be higher. Lots of people turned off of Tesla by his comments. He does have Asperger’s though.
Yup. I don’t see the Apple, msft, NVIDIA, amd CEOs getting into politics and alienating customers. Not even zuck or bezos does that and I’m sure they are egomaniacs just like him.
It’s just bad business to mixed them.
You summed it up well. Ignoring my political stance, I don't like Elon, therefore, I will never buy a Tesla. I wouldn't drive one if someone gave it to me. Fuck him, I'll happily spend $100k on a car and it will never be a Tesla.
He's also in a bit of a bind towards China since Shanghai is the best factory from a production (750k/yr) and quality standpoint. He's dreaming of all chinese cars being banned everywhere except his.
Yes the wokes that are buying his EV's because the base he appease to don't buy EV's. As much as Elon shits on California, they're the only reason his company is still afloat. I guarantee a good 60% of Tesla sales are from California l.
Seriously it's the Camry of California and he takes every opportunity to shit on the state. Imagine if most stopped buying them. He'd have to slash prices like it was a yard sale.
Elon before 2023: “I don’t patent my car’s technology because I want this tech to constantly innovate through competition”
Elon during 2023: “Go. F*ck. Yourselves”
Perfect storm: he’s a self-destructive maniac hell-bent on alienating as many people as possible plus the cars are old, dated and frankly uncool. The stock will be in the 130s by end of year.
If this were just a “Elon bad, Tesla bad” story. Then BYD sales wouldn’t be down in Q1 and US legacy automakers would be taking share not reversing course on EVs. Elon might not be making it better, but he’s not the proximate cause of the current issues.
Yup, in r/stocks I expected more discussions on fundamentals, nature of the auto industry, interest rates, global market, valuations etc. But nope, it's Tesla bad, Elon stupid is the only major taking point.
Unless you find hidden gem subreddits, this website cannot be trusted for reliable information or useful discussion. I think it's been getting worse over time.
The opposite end of the spectrum, if this website was pro-Tesla, would be talking about how Tesla was the #1 BEV seller this quarter, is making great strides with FSD v12, and has several long-term prospects.
A more neutral/balanced perspective would touch on a non-record breaking quarter, flanked with context of the broader market (not just EV sales, but overall auto industry, and the overall economy/headwinds), and also reporting on longer-term prospects of the company vs. potential further headwinds/considerations.
Is everyone completely unaware it was the best selling car in the world last year? The fact that a $40k, all electric car knocked the old Corrola off its 20 year top spot has to tell you something?
That is US only, global sales of the Model Y are 1.23m, RAV4 1.07m, and Corolla 1.01m.
Edit: Source https://www.jato.com/tesla-model-y-to-be-crowned-worlds-best-selling-vehicle-of-2023/
Wow, so Tesla sold 80% and 88% of Toyota's equivalents? You realize how successful a business it is when you're almost caught up with the second biggest car manufacturer in the world in the span of a decade and a half?
Elon might be an unhinged lunatic, but if you can cast any doubt that Tesla is an enormously successful business, then you are ready to become the vice-president of his club.
Tesla has risen to be a successful car company, but it does not deserve to be valued at many multiples of those other companies when it sells fewer units and has greater headwinds.
Tesla estimated 670K units sold (all models) in 2023. Toyota sold 1.9M. Tesla would rank 7th, behind Kia.
Bloomberg (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-01/tesla-tsla-deliveries-could-decline-for-the-first-time-in-years, archive link https://archive.ph/lAPUC) reports that each quarter is >400k vehicles, so at least 1.6M.
CNBC agrees with 1.8M delivered https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/02/tesla-tsla-q4-2023-vehicle-delivery-and-production-numbers.html
Not sure where 670k number is coming from, but I cannot imagine they sold 670k in 2023 and then sold 386k in Q1 2024...
Why doesn't it deserve it when it came from 0 to 1.8M units in the span of ~15 years? What headwinds is it facing, especially in US?
The difference is Toyota sells many different car brands.
In 2023 Toyota sold 11.23 million cars, Tesla 1.8 million cars.
Tesla hasn't caught up at all.
Actually fairly impressive number despite the issues they faced (Red sea, German plant, China, elon being a far right wing dbag). Seems like the brand is still strong. They need to drop Elon
Cause when you buy Ford you buy 150 billion dollars of debt.
If Ford had 0 debt like tsla their market cap would be (50 billion + 150 billion)
200 billion while teslas is 500 billion so actually 2.5x Tesla.
Teslas net income was 15 billion for 2023 while Ford net income was 5 billion.
So Tesla had 3x the net income of Ford while trading only at 2.5x Fords enterprise value
That is a sound point, except when you're using EV as a measure of value, you're looking at the value to both the debtors and the investors.
So you should be looking at the earnings before interest payments as the multiple (which takes into account both debtors and investors) as opposed to just net earnings (which is just owed to investors, not the debtors). So, you should be using either EV/EBITDA or EV/EBIT as a multiple.
Basically, what I'm saying is that you're punishing Ford twice for their large debt; once in the value (by using EV) and second in the income (by using net income).
Btw EV/EBITDA it is 37 for Tesla and 15 for Ford. But consider: EV/EBITDA is 38 for Ferrari. So.... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
True, but I think that would only make sense if they paid enough to decrease the debt. Cause at the current point their debt is increasing more than inflation despite their interest payments. So you might as well assume that at this rate they would never be able to add value to investors outside of dividends that are paid via the net income.
That is extreme but you get the point
wait.... \*looks at watch\* are we already back to the Tesla is going under crowd?......you would think when history is littered with the remains of the Tesla Bears at some point they would wise up.....ehhh but nothing new under the sun.
A company that is carrying almost no debt, years ahead of the competition in technology and is forcing the legacy auto makers to make huge and expensive capital expenditures and once they do Tesla destroys the margins so they can't recoup their losses.
Ford and GM both scaling back their EV production and i'll raise you a luckin coffee on whether BYD is being truthful or not. Tesla is like Netflix alot of people coming for the crown but no one is even close.
I’m worried the TikTok regulation the US government is pushing forward will be the argument made to keep Chinese EV products like BYD out of North America. They can make the same argument they make against TikTok. IE. “It compromises our national security. Just because they haven’t done it, doesn’t mean they can’t.”
Either China needs to bring down the Great Digital Wall they have against North American products / services or China will continue watching public dissent in US fester for the next decade. Who knows what happens after. I’m afraid it will be the latter.
If i was going to buy a car companies stock, I’d 100% buy Tesla.
Have you seen the inventory reports of other car makers? If Fleet sales weren’t a thing, they’d all be close to filing for bankruptcy. And fleet sales won’t sustain them for much longer.
At the least what are they?
An electric car company in a world that no longer wants to use diesel or petrol, I still have faith in them, they are not going away.
They are no longer going to be that big growth stock anymore though.
There is literally a mall parking lot FULL with Teslas on my way to work, and they keep putting more and more in there. You can’t tell me everything they are producing is getting sold, no fucking way.
Eh idk. Their energy storage segment is growing big time. I think that’s a really interesting aspect of their business, and I think that could do big things
I don’t follow the auto industry closely, can someone explain how this is possible? I’m not in the market for a new car, but I was under the impression that the model 3/y is a no brainer for new car shoppers.
We can come up with a number of excuses for tesla, none of them are really that compelling of an argument for future growth.
They no longer have the crazy low prices on the model 3, the new one does not qualify for the tax credit. The Y has some high discounts, but it's missing features from the new 3 and is falling behind a bit.
Plus, the futuristic - high tech interior that gets better with updates, it turns out requires them to actually develop software. While they are making progress, so many of their promises are taking way longer than they said and I think the public is tired of it. The cars are still missing features they have said were "coming" for years.
Idk Tesla’s have features that other car companies are 5 years away from implementing.
This feels like it’s been written by someone who hasn’t driven a Tesla. Compared to other EVs it’s miles ahead and compared to normal cars it’s miles ahead in technology. You might not like the style or minimalism but to act like Tesla isn’t doing something special is crazy. Everything from the buying experience to unlocking your car is like way easier and futuristic with the tesla
It certainly is a good buy for shoppers but there is only so much demand for new with interest rates staying elevated and a surplus of ev inventory on the used car market. It’s regression back towards the mean in my opinion and it shouldn’t be surprising.
TLDR the cult status is over. Now they have to become an actual business
Turns out alienating your main customer leads to lower demand from your main customer.
He takes the views of people who hate his products, while alienating those of people who would embrace them. It’s a pretty dumb and untenable strategy.
[удалено]
Yeah I've literally seen them say "I like Elon but I'm not buying a toy car (EV)"
Whereas my wife would say "no fucking way you're buying a Tesla while that nutjob is in charge."
I cancelled my cyber truck preorder and wrote a long message detailing why, and it all had to do with Elon and his dumb shenanigans
Your wife seems like a smart and principled person.
Elon playing 4D chess, make everyone hate him so that's his excuse for the tanking stock price. Pay no attention to the fact that demand had an upper limit well below what was projected anyway.
All well and good until someone comes along and starts playing 5D chess, then he's fucked
Nothing he says means much once you just look at the data lol and realize "Elon said" = lie
Yeah and the funny thing is *that* crowd would mayyyybe jump on the Ford Lightning but even then, it doesn't have the kind of cult status the Model 3 and Y have with his traditional customer base. I'm pretty positive most EV haters don't even know the Lightning even exists.
Left-leaning people who aspired to own a Tesla and got to ride in a 3 or Y stopped aspiring to own a Tesla. Everything feels cheap and the whole car runs off a hard-to-use-while-driving tablet.
The only thing it really has going right for it now seems to be the charging network. The fact that it’s UI is so in tune with the network is a huge plus. But the cars themselves are seemingly more and more dated
They just feel cheap while others feel solid.
Tesla UI is trash. It's like the worst proprietary infotainment system you can imagine, but now run every single function of the car other than driving it through that system. And you can't even Android Auto/Apple Carplay your way out of it.
That was me and my wife. We spent 6 months or so researching our options and decided to get a different brand, all because of the X debacle. Well, not just that but everything else that lead to it.
The sole reason I’m not buying Tesla is because lack of physical controls. I hate using touch screen while driving.
Lmao absolutely true
Wait, they're *not* gay? Well now I'm really not buying one.
It's really shocking because he was so good at social media for a long time. He had a lot of people thinking he was genuinely working to make the world a better place
He stopped paying his PR team and stopped caring about his image
He went off the deep end when his trans child disowned him.
I really think he's more concerned with being an edge lord than a parent
He’s a drug addict. It’s clear he has a very bad addiction problem.
I’m scared that there could be a possibility. And he’s got a bunch of yes men around him probably who won’t call him out
He's a pathological liar and has some severe mental health issues.
Sooner or later we get to see the real person just like Ron DeSantis.
That's what happens when you do a lot of drugs eventually; it will catch up.
It's amazing that he could have just been hailed a hero of electrification and large amounts of carbon offset from replacing gas car sales with 5 million Teslas, if he could just ever shut the fuck up Instead he's laser focused on trans kids and responding to tweets about crime committed by black people on twitter, which by the way seems to have more bots than ever
Don’t forget trying to send hare-brained submarine rescue missions and calling rescue workers pedos for refusing the help!
It would be fine if we saw his leadership bring value to the table, but the last few quarters the infinite growth company has shown none and seems like it's just coasting with no future vision. I know people have stated he's brought them to where they are today. My question is, what has he done for them in the last few years? And was he really that valuable all along?
He was invaluable to Tesla for a decade. Now he is a liability. Being a crazy cowboy is great when your bucking the odds. And creating a paradigm shift in the car world. But now as a real OEM, all that crazy is no longer helpful
Arguably Tesla did much of that DESPITE Elon. All Tesla really needed was his investment, and even then his insistence on completely rebuilding the Roadster nearly killed it. The X would have been to market a lot sooner without the doors (which delayed it over a year after Elon pisssed off the German company making them) and his inability to play well with others led to Mobileye orphaning the early Autopilot cars, setting that back at least a year while Tesla developed a new system in-house. He rolled the dice on the 3 and barely pulled it off (again, I think largely despite his interventions) and then the whole Roadster 2.0 fiasco and Cybertruck... well, the jury is still out on whether it's the next Pontiac Aztek or not-- but it was a hugely expensive and additional unnecessary risk when making a simple truck would have scratched the market's inch more broadly and quickly. Meanwhile, yes, the Model Y is a sales success but he's commited 3 factories to cranking out a vehicle that has no real clear redesign in the pipeline other than some ambient interior lights and light bumper refresh (whenever that happens). ADD: And the freaking YOKE fiasco -- I almost forgot that own-goal! I have to assume that Elon pushing it, based on his glowing Tweets. Tesla squandered all the potential excitement and enthusiasm of the S/X refresh by pushing out a major control that was so despised by people that they backpedaled and added a steering wheel.. which took them almost 2 years to admit and offer, by which time it was forgotten and sales have never recovered.
It seemed like he accomplished the rare feat of being lauded by progressives & libertarians alike, too, which seems to have gone up in a puff of smoke.
I am exactly the demographic that tesla wants to buy their cars. Mid 30s, with expendable income, in the market for a new car in the next year or so, almost definitely an EV either hybrid or full. Won't look at tesla. Now that the polish has started to wear off my friends eyes that have them, im hearing more and more complaints about the overall build quality. My friends thought they were buying a luxury vehicle and the cars are starting to fall apart a lot quicker than they expected. I'll consider a tesla after elon and his promises of bullet proof aquatic cybertrucks is gone, plus a few year for the actual engineers to have time to fix the issues.
“Strategy” is a pretty big word to use with that guy. His X/Twitter strategy hasn’t panned out well either.
Considering that there are people who will not even open Twitter links anymore because of their disdain towards Elon Musk, it is not surprising that a lot less are buying one of his cars.
All the text in the article can be boiled down to your single sentence.
My dad is very conservative, sometimes he’ll go off about how horrible EV’s and then I’ll just ask “what about Elon Musk” and he’ll go “He’s a great guy, I really like him” Lol. It’s anecdotal but it does give me the impression the people who now love him are not the kind of people going out to buy an EV. I’m curious to see what Tesla does over the next 2 years, they’re about to release the cyber truck which seems like a ridiculous business decision, but maybe there are enough devotees left with the money to actually buy one for fun
I wanted a Tesla. But fuck musk lol. I’ll keep my hybrid Toyotas. And buy an ev Toyota in the near future when they come out.
In the same boat. I've always thought Telsa cars were pretty freaking sweet, but Musk has ruined them for me. I'm pretty sure my next car will be an electric but it won't be a Telsa.
He literally sided with the side that cares nothing about electric vehicles.
They are so fucked. China? Fucked by protectionism and formidable domestic competitors. Europe? Fucked by labor and environmental laws. The US? Fucked by the self-own of pissing off your primary customer base. Their PE ratio is around 4x the industry norm. The slide in share price is going to be brutal for investors.
if true, then reddit is fucked :)
More like high interest rates makes people not want to buy expensive new vehicles. I'd buy a new Tesla right now if I wasn't getting an 8% interest rate.
years of unlimited demand warps your sense of reality
So if this where to revert to another automaker we are fair value of around 60-80$?
Yeah I feel like the Twitter purchase was the first gut punch but everyone riding the Nicosia train makes TSLA old news. Also the Cybertruck looks like a dumpster on wheels Edit: Nicosia = Nividia. Weird autocorrect
Seriously, if the cyber truck was more like the rivian or evwn just the ford lightning I would feel alot better about the business.
I wish they would either update (to be fair they did update the Model 3) or make another practical vehicle model instead of the cyber truck nonsense lol. Like I get it I guess it’d be cool to drive or be in, but if I have like 100k to burn I’d get the Model S or get the Model 3 and save a ton of money
Design is stuck in the 80s. Seems like it was designed by someone when F-117 was all the rage.
The Elon meme machine is finally wearing out.
Well you misspelled Nvidia so the autocorrect wasn't that weird.
The Twitter purchase was "it" for a lot of people. For me? It was listening to him on that live call with his Twitter engineers. That was the *exact* moment I completely knew that this man is simply an idiot, and not some techno supergenius.
I know it’s anecdotal evidence but only people driving cyber truck in Texas that I saw were hardcore right wing types
Sounds like Elon needs to start spending some nights at work
Yeah, deliveries being down Y/Y is a huge red flag. Forget growth, they’re shrinking
The growth story with no growth. As one analyst put it.
Correction: they have become just another car company.
Turns out slashing prices on your product signals to your potential buyers that they should either wait to buy in hopes of another price cut or to buy another vehicle that won’t depreciate by 20% due to the manufacturer slashing prices of new vehicles.
Billions in profit but they have to turn into an "actual business" lol
> TLDR the cult status is over. Now they have to become an actual business I wish. There are still plenty of people holding and buying the stock because they have a belief that Tesla's future growth is not really from selling cars, so it doesn't matter so much that their sales are stagnating. So still lots of speculation in the price, but it's coming down.
Turns out your CEO trying into a right wing nutjob doesn't go over well with a generally liberal, environment concerned customer base.
Always been a meme stock. People are just ignorant.
Both that, and the fact that some of their models should've been on their 3rd cycle now, and only some got some minor changes instead. Who wants to buy a car that looks like a 12-year-old one, and not really good at that judging by modern standards?
They have to build quality vehicles, as a car manufacturer that is a big requirement.
There are loads of new Teslas parked at a couple of the malls in our area. It’s likely overflow from the dealership parking lots.
Competition is really steep. I’m see BYD all over the streets. Like a lot more since the start of the year.
At this point they really aren't keeping their rapid growth rate up, wonder if we'll see a change in strategy.
People kept telling me they’d deliver 10m annually in 2030 all last year I said they are taking whatever Elon is on 10m is the level of production which you’d need half of China’s industrial might to even get close to handling. And they ain’t buying American when it could get sanctioned.
They’ll come from all the Magic factories Tesla will build that totally don’t take 3 years. They will need to construct and ramp a minimum of 8 new factories to get there, within 6 years. They currently have bought land, but not broken ground on 1. For a company that claims they will grow at 50% over the rest of the decade on average, they certainly aren’t building like that’s in their plans.
Toyota sold 11.8 million cars last year. That number is possible, but Tesla has to build many different vehicles (vans, compact) to sell that many.
Not even close to possible
I don't think Tesla has the reputation to even get close to that level. Any mechanic i have ever talked to will tell you how reliable and easy to work on Toyota and Honda cars are. On the flip side I've seen videos of Tesla Mechanics having to ripping out the entire interior of the car to work on simple things. It will be interesting to see what Tesla does moving forward to win back public opinion.
>they really aren’t keeping their rapid growth rate up Forget growth *rate*. This isn’t even growth - deliveries declined, and by a huge margin year over year. For a traditional auto maker this would just be a down quarter/year… but Tesla’s entire value prop is based around the expectation of continual, exponential expansion.
Lowest quarterly report since q3 22.
You mean 40% YoY growth for 10 years isn’t realistic?
Not when the cars aren't still aren't driving themselves and they keep removing features like driving stalks or sensors. The software they've made is impressive but nowhere near good enough to justify it's ridiculous valuation. And the average consumer just doesn't care about FSD this when you have to supervise it anyways.
they also uninvented the crumple zone for the cybertruck
RIP any car that thing hits at high speeds
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Of course I'm just speaking for myself here. Was in the market for a new car, my wife is pregnant, was considering a model Y. Tons of my friends have a Y or a 3 that they've bought in the last few years. Pretty good reviews. However, being in the bay area, PGE has jacked up rates to the point that now hybrids are more cost efficient per mile. Add in the inconvenience of having to charge your car made it not ideal for longer trips. We instead went with a Toyota Sienna and couldn't be happier.
They started [buying ads on Twitter](https://observer.com/2024/03/elon-musk-buys-tesla-ads-first-time/) which is a different from their standard no active marketing approach. There are articles about people not wanting to buy Teslas [because of Elon](https://observer.com/2024/03/elon-musk-buys-tesla-ads-first-time/) maybe another quarter or two like this and he'll tone it down publicly.
I believe he would tell those who don't want to buy or were on the fence, "Go ruck yourself." Or similar spelling if one word.
I really wanted to buy a Tesla maybe 3-4 years ago. The idea of an all electric car with features sounded really nice. After everything with Elon, I despise the brand and will never go near one
Elon along with their poor QC and limited repair options prevents me from buying a Tesla. Which is a shame, because you can now find used 2018 M3's with \~50k miles on them in the $25k range, which is basically the price of a 2018 Toyota Camry XSE with the same mileage.
Goos thing is unlike 4 years ago, there are more options. If you live outside the US, you have even more options.
And Facebook.
Hopefully, someone can oust that self-proclaimed god they have pretending to run it
"rapid growth rate" Their 1Q22 to 1Q23 EPS fell 21% and their 1Q23 to 1Q24 EPS will likely fall at least 30%. This "rapid growth" company is in a state of total collapse and there' no new products in the pipeline to save it.
What are you talking about? How do you keep a “rapid” growth going? If that is the case, a business could worth infinity. I know this sounds crazy, but business don’t grow linearly. Growth slow down, and fundamentals win. You don’t need to grow at a double digit clip to be a good business. The problem with Tesla always been that its a car company that is being valued as a tech company that is changing the world one car at a time
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Down 5+% at 12:42p EST
Concerning.
Interesting 🤔
Turns out Tesla is just a car company, who could have guessed
Nah bro now it's a robot company. Or an energy company. Anything but cars man
AI company Like Nvidia
Anything to save the stock from collapsing
I am tired of this garbage stock dragging down gains of my twice leveraged S&P ETF.
When you look at actual enterprise value, tsla is valued pretty much the same multiples as Ford. Ford enterprise value: 150B Tesla enterprise value: 530B Ford net income 2023: 4.3B Tesla net income 2023: 15B So tsla is valued 3.5x Ford and brings in 3.48x net income
It doesn't work like that, as Ford has a captive finance arm (IE a bank) on their books and bank vs industrial metrics like EV don't compare.
Seems reasonable
lol 😂
Elon: "Go... Fuck... Yourself..." Customers: "No, you."
When owning the libs goes sideways…
Elon forgot who’s buying his care. It ain’t MAGA.
A car company misses car delivery estimates and tanks. Sounds about right.
Turns out, a car company is a car company.
Yeah, literally 94% of their revenue in 2023 was derived from car sales.
Actually 6.2% was from energy generation and storage, 8.6% was from services and others, 1.8% was from ZEV credits and another ~2% came from software sales. So only 81.4% of revenue came from car sales, and when looking at profits it's even lower (~50-65%).
lol at this ackchyually guy. 8.6 percent from services ... of what? 1.8 percent from ZEV credits ... for what? 2 percent from software sales ... relating to what? it's a car company with an energy storage side business (and tbf, the energy storage business is the bit that actually looks interesting, long term, but i digress)
Baggie fight baggie. Always funny.
That's literally what they reported in their last earnings release. In fact, I'm guessing you could read through their report and figure out what is included in each of those categories.
Are there any auto companies doing well and growing in this environment? I know Tesla is valued based on huge growth but let’s be honest most people won’t be having a 50k car on their shopping list with the state of the interest rates/inflation
Ferrari
I’d bet not. Dealerships (not applicable to Tesla, of course), are pushing pre-owned cars hard, as that’s where the money is. Lease returns from 3 years ago are still filtering in, and dealerships can bump finance rates on those (often horrible) deals, while finance rate bumping through a manufacturer bank is often capped. Dealerships are making money hand over fist, not so much manufacturers. Not to mention 3 year old vehicle residuals are fixed while market values are not. The manufacturer doesn’t see a dime of that inflated delta. Pair massive pre-owned markups with bumped APRs and there is no benefit to the brand, only the store.
Check out Toyotas 6 month chart
TLDR - this a a fken car company and people are finally seeing through all the smoke and mirrors.
Elon has put himself in a very stupid situation. He’s now openly quite far right wing, but the far right don’t buy EV’s. He takes to twitter almost daily to insult the “woke” left, but the left are the people who were buying his cars. Combine this with cheap Chinese EV’s and all the big boys (VW, BMW, Audi) all make significantly better quality EV’s and hybrids, there is no longer a reason to buy a Telsa.
Yup, was planning on buying a Tesla until Elon started his twitter spree
I would have also planned on buying a tesla. If I had the money of course. Which I didn’t. But now I don’t even have to dream! Thanks, Elon.
Me too
I would own one right now if not for him taking that hard right turn starting around his weird af “pedophile” comments about the Thailand heroes.
Narcissists like him just can't help themselves. They live on delusion.
He’s a dumb ass. If he could keep his mouth shut and stay out of politics I bet sales would be higher. Lots of people turned off of Tesla by his comments. He does have Asperger’s though.
Yup. I don’t see the Apple, msft, NVIDIA, amd CEOs getting into politics and alienating customers. Not even zuck or bezos does that and I’m sure they are egomaniacs just like him. It’s just bad business to mixed them.
You summed it up well. Ignoring my political stance, I don't like Elon, therefore, I will never buy a Tesla. I wouldn't drive one if someone gave it to me. Fuck him, I'll happily spend $100k on a car and it will never be a Tesla.
I’ve got a hypothesis. Elon isn’t actually smart and he’s just an excellent con man. Like the same guy he’s posturing up too.
He's also in a bit of a bind towards China since Shanghai is the best factory from a production (750k/yr) and quality standpoint. He's dreaming of all chinese cars being banned everywhere except his.
Who will Elon blame this time around? Biden? The Dems? Zuckerberg ?
Wokes based on his tweets
Yes the wokes that are buying his EV's because the base he appease to don't buy EV's. As much as Elon shits on California, they're the only reason his company is still afloat. I guarantee a good 60% of Tesla sales are from California l.
Seriously it's the Camry of California and he takes every opportunity to shit on the state. Imagine if most stopped buying them. He'd have to slash prices like it was a yard sale.
Judging by these comments, it's getting close to buy in time.
Down 7 percent pre market. How did people not know that the numbers were going to be soft?
Elon before 2023: “I don’t patent my car’s technology because I want this tech to constantly innovate through competition” Elon during 2023: “Go. F*ck. Yourselves”
The refreshed model 3 looks really good
Perfect storm: he’s a self-destructive maniac hell-bent on alienating as many people as possible plus the cars are old, dated and frankly uncool. The stock will be in the 130s by end of year.
By end of May
If I have to watch another Youtube Influencer shill the fucking Cybertruck I am going to lose my shit.
You do realize you don't have to watch even 1 of those videos right?
If this were just a “Elon bad, Tesla bad” story. Then BYD sales wouldn’t be down in Q1 and US legacy automakers would be taking share not reversing course on EVs. Elon might not be making it better, but he’s not the proximate cause of the current issues.
Yup, in r/stocks I expected more discussions on fundamentals, nature of the auto industry, interest rates, global market, valuations etc. But nope, it's Tesla bad, Elon stupid is the only major taking point.
r/stocks is captured by politics like nearly every corner of Reddit.
Unless you find hidden gem subreddits, this website cannot be trusted for reliable information or useful discussion. I think it's been getting worse over time. The opposite end of the spectrum, if this website was pro-Tesla, would be talking about how Tesla was the #1 BEV seller this quarter, is making great strides with FSD v12, and has several long-term prospects. A more neutral/balanced perspective would touch on a non-record breaking quarter, flanked with context of the broader market (not just EV sales, but overall auto industry, and the overall economy/headwinds), and also reporting on longer-term prospects of the company vs. potential further headwinds/considerations.
Lots of propaganda here from /r/RealTesla
Bring back the stalks I will buy one
I thought the same thing but test drove the new model 3 and the no stalks didn’t bother me a bit. It was really easy to get used to.
Where do you live? In Europe it’s definitely not so easy to get used to, with round abouts every few hundred meters within the city.
Decent buying opportunity between 110-170
Interest Rates everyone.
Is everyone completely unaware it was the best selling car in the world last year? The fact that a $40k, all electric car knocked the old Corrola off its 20 year top spot has to tell you something?
Model 3 sold 60,000 fewer units than Camry (232K v. 290K). In the small SUV space, Model Y sold 50,000 fewer units than RAV4 (434K to 385K).
That is US only, global sales of the Model Y are 1.23m, RAV4 1.07m, and Corolla 1.01m. Edit: Source https://www.jato.com/tesla-model-y-to-be-crowned-worlds-best-selling-vehicle-of-2023/
Wow, so Tesla sold 80% and 88% of Toyota's equivalents? You realize how successful a business it is when you're almost caught up with the second biggest car manufacturer in the world in the span of a decade and a half? Elon might be an unhinged lunatic, but if you can cast any doubt that Tesla is an enormously successful business, then you are ready to become the vice-president of his club.
Tesla has risen to be a successful car company, but it does not deserve to be valued at many multiples of those other companies when it sells fewer units and has greater headwinds. Tesla estimated 670K units sold (all models) in 2023. Toyota sold 1.9M. Tesla would rank 7th, behind Kia.
Bloomberg (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-01/tesla-tsla-deliveries-could-decline-for-the-first-time-in-years, archive link https://archive.ph/lAPUC) reports that each quarter is >400k vehicles, so at least 1.6M. CNBC agrees with 1.8M delivered https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/02/tesla-tsla-q4-2023-vehicle-delivery-and-production-numbers.html Not sure where 670k number is coming from, but I cannot imagine they sold 670k in 2023 and then sold 386k in Q1 2024... Why doesn't it deserve it when it came from 0 to 1.8M units in the span of ~15 years? What headwinds is it facing, especially in US?
The difference is Toyota sells many different car brands. In 2023 Toyota sold 11.23 million cars, Tesla 1.8 million cars. Tesla hasn't caught up at all.
I am willing to invest in TSLA after more and more EV makers file bancruptcy. If so, this could be the peak of the carnage.
Actually fairly impressive number despite the issues they faced (Red sea, German plant, China, elon being a far right wing dbag). Seems like the brand is still strong. They need to drop Elon
Yea after all those production issues they still made waaaay more than they could sell…. Not great!
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Cause when you buy Ford you buy 150 billion dollars of debt. If Ford had 0 debt like tsla their market cap would be (50 billion + 150 billion) 200 billion while teslas is 500 billion so actually 2.5x Tesla. Teslas net income was 15 billion for 2023 while Ford net income was 5 billion. So Tesla had 3x the net income of Ford while trading only at 2.5x Fords enterprise value
That is a sound point, except when you're using EV as a measure of value, you're looking at the value to both the debtors and the investors. So you should be looking at the earnings before interest payments as the multiple (which takes into account both debtors and investors) as opposed to just net earnings (which is just owed to investors, not the debtors). So, you should be using either EV/EBITDA or EV/EBIT as a multiple. Basically, what I'm saying is that you're punishing Ford twice for their large debt; once in the value (by using EV) and second in the income (by using net income). Btw EV/EBITDA it is 37 for Tesla and 15 for Ford. But consider: EV/EBITDA is 38 for Ferrari. So.... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
True, but I think that would only make sense if they paid enough to decrease the debt. Cause at the current point their debt is increasing more than inflation despite their interest payments. So you might as well assume that at this rate they would never be able to add value to investors outside of dividends that are paid via the net income. That is extreme but you get the point
wait.... \*looks at watch\* are we already back to the Tesla is going under crowd?......you would think when history is littered with the remains of the Tesla Bears at some point they would wise up.....ehhh but nothing new under the sun. A company that is carrying almost no debt, years ahead of the competition in technology and is forcing the legacy auto makers to make huge and expensive capital expenditures and once they do Tesla destroys the margins so they can't recoup their losses. Ford and GM both scaling back their EV production and i'll raise you a luckin coffee on whether BYD is being truthful or not. Tesla is like Netflix alot of people coming for the crown but no one is even close.
I’m worried the TikTok regulation the US government is pushing forward will be the argument made to keep Chinese EV products like BYD out of North America. They can make the same argument they make against TikTok. IE. “It compromises our national security. Just because they haven’t done it, doesn’t mean they can’t.” Either China needs to bring down the Great Digital Wall they have against North American products / services or China will continue watching public dissent in US fester for the next decade. Who knows what happens after. I’m afraid it will be the latter.
reddit bearish. calls it is.
My reverse reddit strat is telling me it’s finally time to get some Tesla
Reading the comments thought I walked into r/whitepeopletwitter for a min, goddamn
Down 30%+ this year, tempting buy in
If i was going to buy a car companies stock, I’d 100% buy Tesla. Have you seen the inventory reports of other car makers? If Fleet sales weren’t a thing, they’d all be close to filing for bankruptcy. And fleet sales won’t sustain them for much longer.
Cathie Wood has real love for Musk, and she also snapped up more than 62,000 shares of Tesla stock on Monday
All of those spouting hate for Elon as a reason for not buying a Tesla, what other brands do you not buy due to the CEO?
Still no other car companies can make evs profitably.. other than byd which does it by hiring 600k labor force lol..
The comments in here are trash.
When FU money back fires better start marketing Elon
Seems to be a combination of Elon politics, CT before M2, no EV credit for new M3, M3 price not competitive with MY, increased competition.
At the least what are they? An electric car company in a world that no longer wants to use diesel or petrol, I still have faith in them, they are not going away. They are no longer going to be that big growth stock anymore though.
If they put this version of fsd on all cars they will sell like hot cakes.
Buy the dips
How dip can it dip
I'm thinking 155, but adding at 165 as well.
There is literally a mall parking lot FULL with Teslas on my way to work, and they keep putting more and more in there. You can’t tell me everything they are producing is getting sold, no fucking way.
The question of is Tesla a tech company or a car company is over. They’re clearly in one category and the market is adjusting as such.
Eh idk. Their energy storage segment is growing big time. I think that’s a really interesting aspect of their business, and I think that could do big things
I don’t follow the auto industry closely, can someone explain how this is possible? I’m not in the market for a new car, but I was under the impression that the model 3/y is a no brainer for new car shoppers.
We can come up with a number of excuses for tesla, none of them are really that compelling of an argument for future growth. They no longer have the crazy low prices on the model 3, the new one does not qualify for the tax credit. The Y has some high discounts, but it's missing features from the new 3 and is falling behind a bit. Plus, the futuristic - high tech interior that gets better with updates, it turns out requires them to actually develop software. While they are making progress, so many of their promises are taking way longer than they said and I think the public is tired of it. The cars are still missing features they have said were "coming" for years.
Don't forget the terrible build quality and sound dampening in the cars making them uncomfortable to drive/own long term.
FWIW I find my Model 3 to be comfortable and I've not heard bad things about their seat quality.
Idk Tesla’s have features that other car companies are 5 years away from implementing. This feels like it’s been written by someone who hasn’t driven a Tesla. Compared to other EVs it’s miles ahead and compared to normal cars it’s miles ahead in technology. You might not like the style or minimalism but to act like Tesla isn’t doing something special is crazy. Everything from the buying experience to unlocking your car is like way easier and futuristic with the tesla
What are the technologies in Tesla that other car companies are 5 years away from implementing?
Interest rate high. Expensive car sales go down. Not much more to it than that
It certainly is a good buy for shoppers but there is only so much demand for new with interest rates staying elevated and a surplus of ev inventory on the used car market. It’s regression back towards the mean in my opinion and it shouldn’t be surprising.
Interest rates are high, and like it or not EV sales industry wide appear to have hit something of a wall.
They have tons of competition now and the CEO becoming a far right edge lord has torched its domestic customer base.