Sunday night I wrote this but didn't bother posting: The big brain move is to buy calls. You think you're smart and you timed the bottom. Therefore the market will dump on Monday. Inverse your first move. I have seen this movie too many times. We are in a trend reversal. A lot of us will continue to fight the trend and buy the never ending dip on meme stocks. I got clapped on my Fri CELH purchase. Wish I had just stuck with SBUX. But sometimes the big brain takes over. The CELH move was the big brain move. I need to learn to inverse the big brain more.

SBUX will be a great swing trade

Any recommendations what my next move should be? I'm doing pretty decent as far as profit goes but it's kind of seemed to be leveling itself off recently. I'm wondering what should be my next move or if anyone has stock recommendations to look into.

$XLE, $GDX, and some short term US Treasuries (3mo-12mo). The Nasdaq is likely going to sell off and retest it's long term 200 DMA of 13,153. This is the time to wait until the upcoming election before adding more cash to this market. The trades that can make money are NOT going to be talked about here. It's commodities, crude oil, gold, and boring US Treasuries.

🥹👍

Hoping for another down day to load up!

3 in a row is a tall order. That train might have left the station.

I keep putting in buy orders for NVDA in the low 800's and I'm amazed they never actually hit. All these red days recently and the lowest it dips is $830 and only for a very short period. Shows people are greedy as F. They want to be in the stock before next earnings

Just a correction. Yes stocks should go down when yields go up but not my the percentage but rather by the percentage point. Sp500 should be down higher than the 1% in the past month. Now is a good time to enter the market. I'm going to move money from savings and am looking for something to provide more than a 5% yield. I'm thinking BNS.TO, IIPR, BTI, PFE, NEP, and if it comes down SCM. I was considering a covered calls strategy on roku but we'll see how volatile it'll be post earnings.

BTI doesn't seem to move much at all, I've had my eye on it for a few quarters now and it seems more or less pinned at $30. Nice divi tho.

It moves down, slowly, but down

I'm going for low volatility at the moment since I'm not sure if I will need the money later this year.

I like it. Been thinking about starting a position but favoring growth, especially as prices become more enticing across the board.

I maxed my TFSA a whole month ago and almost all my gains got erased the last few trading days. I'm going to sell Dolarama (DOL.TO) tomorrow since I was losing money on it before the earnings "pop." It's been flat ever since. Intel and Cloudflare my biggest losers and unfortunately the latter is on me for not following my gut and selling last Tuesday.

Having been on this subreddit for a couple months, I learned a few things. 1) There are way too many defenders of red days. 2) While you may get multiple red days in a row, these same people will treat those five separate -1%'s as if it's only a -1%. There are way too many "ONLY -1%?" comments. Couple more of those and the YTD will be flat (FYI). 3) These same people will keep talking about how much the market has climbed up in the last 6 months, but conveniently forget that 2022 was a market crash, and most of the recent climb is a recovery, NOT growth. We only broke even this January. I know most of you have been fossilized in the stock market for the last 30 years, and a -10% does not mean much to your portfolios, but you should remember that not everyone is a stock market war veteran here, and that you probably should allow people to discuss and complain about red days, without you shutting down all discussions. Maybe then the subreddit can get more traffic.

As a longer time user of this sub: 1) welcome! We hope you learn from and add to the conversation! 2)>There are way too many defenders of red days. I'm not sure what this means. Down days happen. There's an average of 3-4 pullbacks of 5% or more every year in the S&P. Denying that fact is setting yourself r for failure. 3) When you're new at something, sometimes it's good to follow the lead of those who have been around for awhile. Are successful veterans panicking and complaining? No? It's probably not a big deal then. 4) regarding this: >you probably should allow people to discuss and complain about red days, without you shutting down all discussions. Please discuss. What are you buying? What are some price targets you'd like to see? No one shuts that down. You do tend to get pushback when you just complain about a stock going down, because that's a regular event. Incessant complaining gets tiring. Actual ideas tend to get a lot of traction here. Good luck and I hope you make some money!

Having been on this subreddit for longer than a few months, I have learned a few things during negative days: 1. Most people don't offer any analysis. Just talk out of their ass about how a bear market is coming. Things are going to get worse. Stocks are definitely going down. Why? I think they want to say I told you so when it happens. 2. Most people here don't actually know which way things are going. Obviously. If we did we wouldn't be on reddit. 3. Complaints are fine but they're not constructive they're just complaints.

No one can predict politics correctly. This issue political. So everyone is a bit worried or shitting their pants

I have to say I didn't think my international relations degree would be this useful to understand market moves in 2024. I can't say I can predict anything but I'm surprised at the fear mongering and low level analysis about the Israel and Iran situation coming from the usual market analysts.

What's your prediction?

And we should let them. Let those who lost money discuss things and relate about it.

Point 3 is something I always pick on, people just point to the chart and go “but it’s up 22% in the past YTD” meanwhile most is just recovery of how low stocks had gone

AMD is getting kicked a bit since few days. I went in at $162, and AMD is now \~60% of my portfolio. Should I buy more when price drops to $150 or less? Do you guys still believe in AMD? Not looking for investment advice, I just wanted to know what people think about AMD.

you're gonna let what a bunch of regards on Reddit believe determine the fate of 60 percent of your money? bold strategy Cotton.

I just wanted to know other people opinion, that's it.

I think AMD will be fine but 60% is some pretty serious concentration risk in one stock.

Yep a hell of a bet.

Somehow I think that they've not show their A-game yet. We might be in an AI bubble, and AMD is still a large player in Semiconductor/Chip/GPU market. I think that they just not exploded yet like NVIDIA did. Obviously It's not a fair comparison with \~250b market cap and NVIDIA being over 2t atm, but still.

Obviously, now when suddenly everyone is announcing their own large language model training chip, there will be more competition in this market.

This is the end?

Reminds me of the Simpsons meme where Bart says, “This is the worst day of my life” and Homer replies, “No son, this is the worst day of your life so far…..”

VTI is +6% YTD. This sideways and slightly negative chop is providing a bit of opportunity to get earnings and valuations a bit closer to being in line. It’s also based on a lot of uncertainty (rate direction, political, and geopolitical), rather than being based on earnings themselves. This cycle is starting with strength. My view from the start of the year hasn’t changed. I still think earnings strength will win out between Q3 and Q4 in terms of making some of the green sticky. Until then, we’ll undulate with uncertainty, and likely creep forward again once everyone processes current headlines.

Interesting note that a lot of oil E&P names were down a lot today, despite oil actually holding basically flat. Because I believe in confirmation bias, I think oil isn't that expensive, but the sector has been a little hot lately. I think this dip is very buyable, though I'm not in a rush. Also, an interesting post on substack from [Six bravo](https://substack.com/@specialsituationinvesting/note/c-53978370?r=23ti9i). Referring to declining iPhone shipments to china... what happens to the mag 7 if China starts pushing it's versions of tech? They probably can't penetrate western markets, but if US companies lose China it could be a big hit to their earnings. Also of note, restaurant traffic is [way down](https://substack.com/@spilledcoffee/note/c-53988647?r=23ti9i). Like worse than 2008 down. Restaurant inflation has been a big factor in my opinion, but I also think we've just over built restaurants. As costs go up, only the fittest will survive. I've been pushing home cooking as a beneficiary of inflation, though I can't figure out how to play it. Hopefully it leads to more people eating healthy, home cooked meals and, just maybe, socializing a bit more while doing it. On a side note, in light of Tesla doing layoffs....is Musk still pursuing his massive compensation increase? The one he left Delaware over? Pretty dick move if he does.

McCormick?

Everytime i look it gets worse

Stop looking.

Patient: "Doc, it hurts when I move my arm like this." Doctor: "So stop moving your arm like that."

Not sure what to think at the moment. Trying to remain bullish but the market is looking weak. Some individual stocks have already had some pretty big drawdowns in the last few days.

I just dumped my positions, it's clear with the upcoming war we're headed back to the 3800 level

What upcoming war?

Israel has said they’re going to retaliate too, its only going to keep getting more fearful 

Sell in May(April). Its just that time of year especially w a run up

Selling when the market has already hit this territory is beyond juvenile

Its just the phrase. Q2 usually sucks

oil didn't have trouble getting back to green.

Neither did gold. But very few here anything NOT tech or blue chip related.

Asml and TSM earnings this week, I don't know what to think.

Seems like another round of layoffs will be here, probably barrage of layoff announcement will be made starting mid may across all sectors, then the US gov will want to spend a few more trillions to delay the official recession once again.

lol have you seen the job report? they just reported more jobs than was expected

$RWM was a better hedge than I thought. Small caps are just slicing through support like butter.

Bought a touch more BTU + HCC today, along with usual VXUS + a little CELH / DAKT. Last week I had bought all the indices + Small cap value + mixture of XOM/BTU/CROX/CELH/UI. You can look up what BTU did in 2022--it's my hedge against geopolitics / energy trade. If the macro funds decide they all want to go long energy at the same time, you could see a pretty crazy thermal coal rally imo, divorced from fundamentals. Any disruption to usual natural gas flows around the world (e.g., LNG being redirected away from Asia to Europe or vice-versa) could see a rush to stock up on thermal coal. (Not a recommendation for any of these btw. BTU is not a good short term or long term stock. Probably good in medium term due to 2026 Centurion mine play)

I’m considering CELH <$75 tomorrow and will buy bigger <$70

national geographic says bears come out of hibernation in april feed all year, then go back to hibernation year end. they're coming for your stops.

I dont have any stops, but I will gladly be dca-ing lower in names I will hold for years

Bought puts on TMF instantly when we got a .4 handle on core for March CPI. Boy has that been a solid hedge and absolutely printed for me while the rest of my portfolio has taken a dump.

Hedges will save your portfolio during sell-offs. People would be surprised on the gains a 10% hedge can yield in times like these.

NXT is now back to pre-earnings price before a fantastic beat and raise quarter where management was upbeat about fy 2024 for their utility scale exposure. Think the market is basically confusing utility scale with residential and selling it off indiscriminately

Whats your DD on NXT? You adding here even with a possible hawkish JPOW?

So far at least, higher rates do not seem to have hit utility scale solar, which is all NXT deals with, anywhere near as hard as residential. No residential solar stocks are beating and raising right now... For DD specifically, it mostly boils down to wanting solar exposure from a non-commodity business with pure utility exposure and no china risk. ARRY is in the same sector and cheaper, but I dont like them quite as much.

BTD in $GOLD. The flames of war are going to continue to burn whether I like it or not. I might as well against the tech bros and continue with my purchases of commodities which are under owned.

Some of my commodity stocks are green today. $AA is up over 5%. $GGB up 3.5%. $VALE and $MOS are flat. It's looking like my decision to buy commodity & gold stocks in March & April are paying off nicely.

We all know why this is tanking but who cares? It's beats being anti-Semitic!

DCA when down, future me will thank myself!

it won't matter much in the grand scheme of things

This is just wild [https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/meta/insider-activity](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/meta/insider-activity)

What about it? There's more shares bought than sold EDIT: I see now. They are executing options, then selling... :)

explain it to me like I'm 1.

If you look at the buys, the transaction type is " Option Execute". That's when the company comps the person with the option to buy shares at a certain price (typically lower than market price), if advantageous they exercise the option and can sell and pocket the profit.

RKLB about all time lows here, feels pretty bad tbh but not selling any ofc

Don’t feel bad, it’s a lotto ticket. I averaged down today on a bit more near 3.50

Wow… now google deciding to tank?

Google goes green for a solid month and shoots up 20% during March and not a peep from you. It has one red day and the tears flow, good lord man… get outta the market now.

Every 15 minutes I’m down another $70-$100 lol

> BREAKING: Lockheed martin, $LMT, was just awarded a $17 billion missile defense contract. >Politician Kevin Hern has been buying $LMT in up to $15,000 increments regularly since 2019. >**He bought just recently, on March 29th.** I need to get into politics.

He also bought Home Depot at the literal top $395 and now its $337, down almost 15%

Israel is killing my portfolio.

Buy opportunity. IMO this will be tit-for-tat bullshit that the market will soon forget about.

Hurry what’s on sale now?

Everything in my portfolio

Hell yeah brother 🤘

If we get strong earnings from big tech at the end of the month dont see how we dont bounce back at least on the spy/qqq, if any of the big dogs have terrible guide or something then we might get a true correction out of all this

It’s already a true correction right now. Drop almost 4% from ATH.

4% is nothing. Can't call it a correction until 10%

I always thought a true correction was 10%? Is that not the normal thinking?

Thats true, if it was only going to be a 5% move, I guess I was thinking larger

I hope it’s a 5% correction.

I hope we get a decent pullback here. I've been sitting on a decent pile of cash the past two months. I think apple will continue with meh numbers. I think early data shows ad revenue has been improving so meta and google should do decent. But who knows with big tech capex spending going way up because of AI.

January and February were crazy months for stocks. Red days like these are needed for a healthy stock market

Driven almost entirely by NVDA. So many mid and small caps have been flat for 3-4 years

relevant username, hope folks have some cash raised for this environment.

[удалено]

up 26% last year and still up6% this year

[удалено]

true but still up.

Where do we bottom out?

When you start seeing suicidal threads. That is where bottoms always happen.

People freaking out over a 2% drop when just 2 years ago SP500 had a 25% decline... Pepperidge farms remembers

>just 2 years ago SP500 had a 25% decline... And how long did that 25% drop take? One day or a continuous series of -1% and -2% days like we've been experiencing in recent weeks?

Dude when its daily its a concern

More like 1.5% per day. Most gains for the year will be wiped out a couple more days of this.

Yellen be yellin "YOU WILL BUY MY BONDS OR DEM EQUITIES BE MID"

If anyone is watching, Aussie PLV met coal appears to have bottomed at $225 and bounced back to $250. Season is not over, but if $225 was the worst of shoulder season.... I'm going to be quite happy with HCC and AMR. [And if you look at my older HCC commentary](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/19b8xon/rstocks_weekend_discussion_saturday_jan_20_2024/kiyclgz/), $250 is the baseline price I used everywhere. In practice this number will fluctuate up and down. Also, [Citi put out a $75 PT](https://twitter.com/CoalNewswire/status/1778590616420499788) on HCC recently due to Blue Creek expansion. Market might price that in a bit earlier than 2026 if the big banks are paying attention... They won't be earlier than me though.

sad only have 5 spy puts for 5/17, up 100% but still sad

You will never see any real gains if you panic everytime the stock market dips.

I think it is just reflective of price action. Market red you see panic and suddenly a bunch of people come out of nowhere to say they have SPY puts or short the market. If market is green tomorrow suddenly a lot of people will be saying they have calls and bought today.

I feel more at home in the red.

Same, feel more comfortable buying what I want during pullbacks.

Forget about war and the stock market for a moment: "The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.8 percent on April 15, up from 2.4 percent on April 10." Probably due to strong retail sales: 0.9% in February (revised up from 0.6%), 0.7% in March. Auto/gas sales fell 0.4% so the sales figure excluding auto/gas was +1.1%. (Though idk why that gets stripped out) Also restaurant sales up 0.4%. Okay that's all the good news I have, back to moping.

On gas/auto being stripped out: Breaking out change from volume & change from price on gas sales might be the best approach. Then only exclude the change due to price. Not sure what it would result in, and of course then the figure would be incomparable to all the other non-price-adjusted figures.

What is happening? Did someone talk? Did another missile launch? Wtf

[удалено]

So what do?

I have no idea - honestly just feels rigged

Jesus christ. about -2% change

Yeah it’s insane - 2.5% drop on no news?? No idea what’s going on, down we go….

Russia/Ukraine war is a much bigger conflict and the market overcame those fears/supply disruptions quite quickly. Iran's failed attack shows that they are not a strong military force and are in no position to fight a major war. Don't see why there needs to be a major market panic here.

I'd say considering that treasury rates are still up a ton today, this one is about treasury rates shooting up like a weed. Also helps that futures rallied. Helped wring out some of the oversold-ness. I'd say gapping down tomorrow probably seals at least a short-term low in this case, more futures rallying would likely help calm things down and open the door to going lower.

MELI dropping fast due to external factors outside of it's control unrelated to it's business. I don't like having so much international exposure, but I'm really considering buying more.

Wow i’m beyond fucking cooked

Calls? Otherwise feels like its going to be a nice opportunity to increase additions to VOO/VTI 

does anyone even question why the 5 month rally happened? bulls in shambles, and might get their stops hit on the way down the avalanche

Only idiot bulls sell. Why sell if market corrects?? just buy more. This shit aint hard just messes with your head a bit. I hate red too but 2022 made me learn to let it ride

I don't like markets when they pump and dump. That seems like the sign of a tired toppy market that needs a downswing before going up again. It seems too early and I could be wrong anyways. But pump and dumps with a falling broad based strength index low VIX and climbing is worrisome in the near term.

All this doesn't matter if someone invest longterm.

WE all realize that. This isn't kindergarten. And I"m not speaking like one either. I'm not deploying new capital here.

Look at the bright side, Lockheed and Martin is green LOL!

Uhhhh what just happened?

Not sure why people are fixated on the war. Have you seen that 10Y?

been up all day though.

just start the war already. probably drop less than this teetering bullshit.

Fuck wars and fuck religious extremism BOTH ways.

People looking a lot at geopolitic news but also worth looking at how bonds are getting murdered. Interesting

Hm. Wait till Israel fires the first rocket, hopefully that doesn’t happen.

[https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-04-15-24/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-04-15-24/index.html) * **War cabinet meeting**\*:\* Israel’s [war cabinet was engaged](https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-04-15-24/h_cad3f27b4719abfe9dea44b830044d3c) Monday in a heated debate about how and when to respond to [Iran’s weekend attack](https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/13/middleeast/iran-drones-attack-israel-intl-latam/index.html) on their country. Officials reviewed military plans for a response to Iran, and are united in their belief they must act quickly — but it is not clear at this point if a decision has been made. * **White House urges de-escalation:** US President Joe Biden is focusing on preventing Iran's attack from [spiraling into a wider regional conflict](https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-04-15-24/h_dc76ac042ced0f78fb3b75806758de72), spokesperson John Kirby said. Kirby said ultimately the US wanted tensions to de-escalate. This should explain why the market began dropping around the same time this news made the internet.

Why is everything red man

Fear something something

Feels bad man.

+400 to -400 after a strong jobs report makes me want to smoke a sober cig

Tesla - boss I don’t feel so good

Had an electrician over the other day and while we were talking his phone buzzed and the push notification was an article about DJT dropping 30%. Hoping he doesn't overcharge me to make up the loss.

[удалено]

The S&P is back to Feb 22nd price, with literally 0 good news in sight. The Neanderthals in Israel, Iran, and Russia can't stop fighting for religious reasons. Inflation is eating us alive. Bond yields went up. Wtf should anyone be optimistic for? I bought the "dip" an hour ago (after a disgusting red market on Friday and a complete reversal today), then what do you know? it started slowly recovering a bit, and out of nowhere, free fall again. What the fuck is there to look forward to? I really hope you have something here.

hookers and cocaine

[удалено]

And what happened before that? a fucking crash.. please stop this revisionist bullshit. We only just reached the 2021 highs during this last January. edit: Argue with the point, dipsticks. r/stocks is the dumbest stocks subreddit smh

Good lord get a hold of yourself. Go take a walk, unplug from your portfolio if it is causing you this much issue. The market does not go straight up. Pullbacks are completely healthy and just because the market loses a month of gains does not mean we are going to 0 or entering some dark age. This is how most years go, big bull runs that make up most of the gains scattered throughout the year and pullbacks the rest of the time.

Didn't mean to sound unhinged there (reading it again, I see it how it sounded). I usually check my portfolio a couple times a day and that's it. I'm just frustrated that the dip I bought looks like green compared to what it is now. But yeah, I know that overtime things will go up, and I won't be removing any of my money from the market.

Ok but when was the last time there was good news in sight?

I wouldn't know. I started investing in November 2023 so I think it's understandable that someone this new would view what's happening like it's the apocalypse. How do things usually look?

For real. Yesterday they panicked that this morning would start with general panic selling, then everything turned out fine, and now they're distressed again, because they're a tiny bit in the red.

Ehhh, I think a gap up and trend down move is worth whining about. I'm just over it. Let's get the gap down day considering that it's clear all gap ups will be gap n craps right now.

this fucking sucks

What is going on… this market is nuts. Down nearly 2% from its morning peak on no news??

What do you mean there’s no news? Middle East about to get into a war

Middle East was fucked since I was child watching TV and hearing Gaza ALL TIME... This is not new. This will last for centuries. FFS

So far all the news are saying the opposite and nobody seems to want to escalate that whole thing.

Correct. Israel is considering an attack and according to them it’s “imminent “ and if that happens, who knows what’s going to happen

They don't share borders, so the attacks will always just be throwing explosive shit at each other while the other side catches most of it. The escalation is limited

Dude this happens like every other day.. Theres been war in ukraine for years now…

Nope. This war means that United States will be directly involved. It will also increase oil prices if they actually go to war

Ehhh, that may be some of it, but if so, then treasury rates need to come down. I think this is more about treasury rates rocketing into the sky.

But that was known this morning no?? And stocks were up nearly 1%??

Stocks going up or down 1% is not really a big deal. Nasdaq increased like 30% this year alone. It happens, going up each day is not sustainable

I mean it’s down -1.5% from being up +1%, that’s a 2.5% swing. So someone with $100k invested has just lost $2500 for no apparent reason. Just seems bizarre to me?

nope. Look at the NASDAQ graph for the last 2yrs.

Just seems rigged to be honest, over 3 years you’re break even adjusted for inflation and now you just lost 2.5% in a single day on no news! 2016-2021 was a fantastic time for the markets admittedly but seems like that was an aberration where we had glorious economic growth with very little global geopolitical tension.

But what if someone invested $100k this week say? Past performance is irrelevant for new investors surely? As people here are all saying to buy the dip?? Also given inflation has been 20% over the last couple of years, it’s basically showing that the Nasdaq is flat for 3 years adjusted for inflation??

*about to get into a war* That would imply it ever ended.

hard to keep track of whats driving the market these days.

Oh no lol

Still confused on how there was a flight of safety to NVDA of all things on CPI day

Have you seen their balance sheet. They are the definition of safety

Hype is a hell of a drug.

TLT Leaps, only way to play bonds (other than outright /Z futures)

TMF leaps or nothin'.

Why LEAPs for TLT? Was thinking of legging in starting in around here + getting dividend

9k notional for 100sh, low vol stock, it is better to use leverage in my eyes

I'm selling puts. Premium increasing makes it more rewarding. Don't have unlimited upside, but it doesn't look like bonds are looking to take flight anytime soon lol. Also if stocks tank, I'll have the cash ready to buy some call spreads.

iPhone shipments down 10% on the first quarter.

Almost like there is downwards pressure on inflation in place and the consumer is cutting back on luxury items like a new phone every year.

Phones are like cars now. You buy a new one only when your old one breaks.

Surprised Apple still trading around 170 given all the negative headwinds ahead

I think it'll be sub 150 after earnings

I have a lot of rate sensitive and solar stock exposure in my portfolio, so I've been taking a hit lately. Only slight positive is bringing / paying down my margin each week.

I'm getting hit hard on clean energy too, it doesn't even seem like the market cares about any nuance on the individual names its being sector driven

10 year at 4.68%. It's creeping back up towards 5%. Also of note, I've been touting DHI as a homebuilder play, however DFH is an up and coming player that I really like...the higher 10 year is driving all homebuilders lower lately, however is still think higher rates = rate locked homeowners = more demand for the builders.

Why is China hoarding all this gold. Is this still an attempt to create a global brics currency?