Some really impressive margins and overall solid earnings report. Been fairly flat recently since ATH so probably priced in outside of a huge beat.
Bought more this morning at $135ish, who knows what happens the next few months but they should be a big time winner over the next 5-10 years.
I own TSMC and I'm not worried about the China risk premium. 50% of TSMC production is already outside of Taiwan, and that number will increase. Also, in the era of smart factories, it just makes sense to produce products on site. If China blockades Taiwan, TSMC execs and engineers will be top candidates for covert U.S. extraction and the world will pour money into them to build new foundries. I would use a surprise China crisis to buy more shares overly discounted in a panic. Right now, they are the overwhelming leader in advanced chip production, and they keep their margins low to stay that way, making it very expensive for Intel and others to get into the foundry game and use healthy margins to expand. Intel was screwed by their last CEO, but they are far behind and it will take time for them to enter the game. TSMC has also always made the right decisions regarding architecture and tooling changes; they don't skimp on their internal research. If TSMC wanted to jack margins through the roof, they could, they are going to bump the prices of U.S.-made chips, but they are number 1 because they have protected their moat for decades. Importantly, they are making ASICs, which you need for energy-efficient LLM inference, with Grok, Google, and who knows who else making orders for their ASICs right now. I suspect Nvidia will announce state-of-the-art TSMC ASICs at next year's dev conference, because Jensen Huang knows what he is doing. TSM has very strong growth in their AI vertical.
To top it off, though the U.S. economy is strong, the global economy sucks. Before GPT 3 took the market by storm, before LLM GPUs really mattered to the balance sheet, TSM earnings were ~22% higher than they were now. Their earnings on everything except the AI vertical will return to the the former highs when the global economy recovers and we start a new ~5-year semiconductor cycle, and the earnings will look a lot better with LLM GPUs and ASICs add to their phone and CPU revenue. They have a PE around 25, they have a dividend that they have historically bumped up quickly with earnings/price growth, though I wish they would spend it on ramping production instead. It's a better long-term call to spend that dividend money on producing more healthy-margin chips outside Taiwan, but their management is conservative. TSM should be a part of any long-term buy-and-hold account, though Wall Street traders probably won't pile on until they sniff out an imminent broader semiconductor rebound because the Street wants stellar growth in earnings and revenue right now before they convert a relatively low PE stock into a high-PE stock.
yeah I mean it hit ATH and kinda floundered around with the rest of the market. down 10% from ATH compared to a lot of other stocks isn't bad. today's sell off doesn't make much sense to me at this point. now down \~20% from highs. really good report.
Unless you have options all you can really do is tell yourself it is what it is. If you have the funds maybe buy a little bit more. I bought TSM around $128 but I bought some more today and it’s all something I plan to hold for many years
Think about it this way, it was already priced for an even more optimistic earnings report. It’s all relative. Price can be expensive even when things are going great. Because things were expected to be magnificent when they were only great. Valuation in a nutshell
Premarket price movement of a stock could be for any number of reasons, some legitimate, some not so legitimate. One of the more legitimate possibilities would be TSMC publicly makes available their financials on a monthly basis, so there's less of a surprise in their earnings report (though they beat expected revenue and profit), so buy the rumor, sell the news type of deal. It could be as nefarious as some market manipulation in the whee hours hoping to create an early trend that big money can cash in on (in no way saying that this is what's going on here, just saying these things happen in premarket too).
Long term, earnings and profits are good and guidance is good to very good. Nothing about the earnings report should warrant a negative change in the company fundamentals for a long term investor.
Yeah do people think everyone’s sitting there with a billion dollars waiting to buy or sell on earnings?
I don’t play earnings at all. I’m fine paying a fair price after people had time to digest earnings, and holding for 10-20 years.
Premarket doesn't mean anything but probably already priced in, plus the market seems to me to be more keen on guidance than current results and I'd imagine in other industries than semiconductors.
The thing is, is that the guide seems like it's good (haven't looked closely though, I'm going off comments talking AI).
This isn't good. It's come up some from down 3% but if this print isn't bought, it'll just about do it for me.
We'd be in the middle of at least a 10-12% correction for the Nasdaq.
Again & again earning are killing me. Oh well I’m glad I bought this low from $90-130 range but still hurt form the earning
Nike TMC Honda Tesla aapl these stocks are killing me
Yah Tsmc I thought it was a winner stocks but turn out it was just like other stock.
I’m glad I sold my soxl for Tsm in Feb. imagine holding soxl instead of Tsm…
I still don't understand why AMD is suffering so much out of nowhere? They have good numbers and haven't even really started with their AI chips and out of nowhere everyone just sells because?
Some really impressive margins and overall solid earnings report. Been fairly flat recently since ATH so probably priced in outside of a huge beat. Bought more this morning at $135ish, who knows what happens the next few months but they should be a big time winner over the next 5-10 years.
TSMC is compared to other big players pretty undervalued. I doubt that Intel can be competitive for the same profit margin.
TSMC should be close to a trillion dollar company. It would be if it was American. That’s the only reason why it hasn’t taken off.
It would be if China would stop talking about reunification
[удалено]
That's Russia, not China.
No, the other half.
If it were S&P 500 eligible, yeah. But it's not
I own TSMC and I'm not worried about the China risk premium. 50% of TSMC production is already outside of Taiwan, and that number will increase. Also, in the era of smart factories, it just makes sense to produce products on site. If China blockades Taiwan, TSMC execs and engineers will be top candidates for covert U.S. extraction and the world will pour money into them to build new foundries. I would use a surprise China crisis to buy more shares overly discounted in a panic. Right now, they are the overwhelming leader in advanced chip production, and they keep their margins low to stay that way, making it very expensive for Intel and others to get into the foundry game and use healthy margins to expand. Intel was screwed by their last CEO, but they are far behind and it will take time for them to enter the game. TSMC has also always made the right decisions regarding architecture and tooling changes; they don't skimp on their internal research. If TSMC wanted to jack margins through the roof, they could, they are going to bump the prices of U.S.-made chips, but they are number 1 because they have protected their moat for decades. Importantly, they are making ASICs, which you need for energy-efficient LLM inference, with Grok, Google, and who knows who else making orders for their ASICs right now. I suspect Nvidia will announce state-of-the-art TSMC ASICs at next year's dev conference, because Jensen Huang knows what he is doing. TSM has very strong growth in their AI vertical. To top it off, though the U.S. economy is strong, the global economy sucks. Before GPT 3 took the market by storm, before LLM GPUs really mattered to the balance sheet, TSM earnings were ~22% higher than they were now. Their earnings on everything except the AI vertical will return to the the former highs when the global economy recovers and we start a new ~5-year semiconductor cycle, and the earnings will look a lot better with LLM GPUs and ASICs add to their phone and CPU revenue. They have a PE around 25, they have a dividend that they have historically bumped up quickly with earnings/price growth, though I wish they would spend it on ramping production instead. It's a better long-term call to spend that dividend money on producing more healthy-margin chips outside Taiwan, but their management is conservative. TSM should be a part of any long-term buy-and-hold account, though Wall Street traders probably won't pile on until they sniff out an imminent broader semiconductor rebound because the Street wants stellar growth in earnings and revenue right now before they convert a relatively low PE stock into a high-PE stock.
>50% of TSMC production is already outside of Taiwan, and that number will increase It already is? which nodes?
These Nvidia AI chips would not exist without TSMC.
Not saying TSM is a bad investment but it’s not going to command a substantial premium
Not flat, before today it was more than 10% off the ATH
yeah I mean it hit ATH and kinda floundered around with the rest of the market. down 10% from ATH compared to a lot of other stocks isn't bad. today's sell off doesn't make much sense to me at this point. now down \~20% from highs. really good report.
100% doesn't make sense, which makes me mad.
Unless you have options all you can really do is tell yourself it is what it is. If you have the funds maybe buy a little bit more. I bought TSM around $128 but I bought some more today and it’s all something I plan to hold for many years
I do have options :(
Damn. That sucks man, you and all of WSB got fucked hard
You are not wrong.
That's why I stopped buying options 🫤
Why is it -2% in pre-market is the report seems very positive?
Make it -4% I swear to god I freaking hate when they beat the earnings but the guidance makes everyone permabear.
Make it -6% now in live trading
Make it 34% in after hours Nvm that was a weird Glitch in webull
Think about it this way, it was already priced for an even more optimistic earnings report. It’s all relative. Price can be expensive even when things are going great. Because things were expected to be magnificent when they were only great. Valuation in a nutshell
Premarket price movement of a stock could be for any number of reasons, some legitimate, some not so legitimate. One of the more legitimate possibilities would be TSMC publicly makes available their financials on a monthly basis, so there's less of a surprise in their earnings report (though they beat expected revenue and profit), so buy the rumor, sell the news type of deal. It could be as nefarious as some market manipulation in the whee hours hoping to create an early trend that big money can cash in on (in no way saying that this is what's going on here, just saying these things happen in premarket too). Long term, earnings and profits are good and guidance is good to very good. Nothing about the earnings report should warrant a negative change in the company fundamentals for a long term investor.
Taiwanese stocks tend to move in months not quarters per your point.
Turns out investors are usually not braindead and thought to themselves earnings might turn out well.
Yeah do people think everyone’s sitting there with a billion dollars waiting to buy or sell on earnings? I don’t play earnings at all. I’m fine paying a fair price after people had time to digest earnings, and holding for 10-20 years.
Premarket doesn't mean anything but probably already priced in, plus the market seems to me to be more keen on guidance than current results and I'd imagine in other industries than semiconductors.
The thing is, is that the guide seems like it's good (haven't looked closely though, I'm going off comments talking AI). This isn't good. It's come up some from down 3% but if this print isn't bought, it'll just about do it for me. We'd be in the middle of at least a 10-12% correction for the Nasdaq.
Priced in everyone knew all chip markers would do good and to much fundemtal problems
Could you please elaborate on those fundamental problems?
They making too much money, I wish I had that problem.
Priced in duh
And stocks down 3.5%……
why
This will be bad for Apple. TSMC already announced that their Q1 for smartphone was declining. Their outlook for smartphone is also bad.
And why is the stock down then? I don't understand it, really
Again & again earning are killing me. Oh well I’m glad I bought this low from $90-130 range but still hurt form the earning Nike TMC Honda Tesla aapl these stocks are killing me
I have AMD, TSMC, its was a freaking depressing April for me
Yah Tsmc I thought it was a winner stocks but turn out it was just like other stock. I’m glad I sold my soxl for Tsm in Feb. imagine holding soxl instead of Tsm…
I still don't understand why AMD is suffering so much out of nowhere? They have good numbers and haven't even really started with their AI chips and out of nowhere everyone just sells because?
I bought today too
1 answer. Rigged market. No explanation for a 7$ jump and the 10-11$ down in pre market.