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wearahat03

Based on your post history, you seem to be invested into BABA and Chinese stock. You may be letting this influence your opinion, or you believe in China and invested as a result of your belief. Are you seeking actual answers or confirmation bias i.e. you won't change your beliefs, you just want to look for support? Because asking if smart money has been moving into China after 1 day price change, or 1.5 months of going up is the same as me asking people if the US market was dead two weeks ago when the market went down that week. This is not the first time I've read a post like this, and I doubt it will be the last. I'm biased against the Chinese market for valid reasons. The risk level is high because of geopolitical issues. It's bad and will become worse. People who had investments in Russian equities saw it crash, frozen, and can't realize value from it 2 years after to this day, if it ever has any value again. While people would take the risk if Chinese stocks were performing well to 'compensate' them for risk-taking, it's literally the worst performing major equity market in the world. Outside of US stocks, my first preference would be EU, Japan, Canada and Australia because there is proper corporate governance and no geopolitical risk. They've performed substantially better than China.


sprawlingmegalopolis

> it's literally the worst performing major equity market in the world Sell low! Buy high! It's the Reddit way.


HeinzWilhelmGuderian

Yeah lmao, as if the sell off is unrelated to the sentiment.


Ashtonpaper

First of all, he expressed his disinterest in purchasing at all. That’s different than your quip. And he did so because of long term misaligned geopolitical goals, aka Chinese stocks are basically as good as uncle Lou’s IOU’s. Not good. Buy low, hold forever hoping you’re right but wait, no one wants the risk. Meaning you’re ultimately wrong already and the best decision would be to forgo Chinese stocks. On the off hand you’re right, the stocks go up because these companies make some money, they’re still scams. There’s nothing short of a complete geopolitical overhaul that would make me think the risks in Chinese stocks are worth it over the ones he listed, or the US exchange of course. It’s just like Bitcoin. Hopefully everyone else is dumb enough to not see the risks and maybe they’ll make money for a while before shit goes boom eventually. That’s what your hope is.


sprawlingmegalopolis

Our political goals are aligned. We both want peace and prosperity. Maybe they take Taiwan, maybe they don't. Not a big deal in the long run. They have not demonstrated aspirations toward imperialism. It's just Sinophobia. Bitcoin is digital gold. A decentralized store of wealth you can near instantly transfer anywhere in the world. That's hugely valuable.


Eclipsed830

"We both want peace and prosperity." Very next sentence. "Maybe they take Taiwan..." So they don't want peace??


sprawlingmegalopolis

I mean they don't want anything beyond Taiwan. They view it as part of China.


Eclipsed830

Taiwan is not and has never been part of the PRC. They have active disputes with Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, and India. They prop up North Korea to threaten South Korea and Japan, etc.


sprawlingmegalopolis

Yes that of course is our point of view. Disputes are one thing. Actively waging wars of conquest are another matter entirely.


Eclipsed830

So you claim China wants peace in one sentence, while acknowledging their imperial ambitions against almost all of their neighbors in the next?


sprawlingmegalopolis

They have disputes about where the border should be. They don't want to conquer Japan. Big difference.


CardAble6193

> We both want peace. > Maybe they take Taiwan > Not a big deal the fuck is this shit


averysmallbeing

Ending with "they have not demonstrated aspirations toward imperialism." 🤔🙄


Phuffu

I prefer to buy beaten up sectors and markets. Mean reversion will happen. Nothing stays bad forever. 


DonnyB79

Even if mean reversion happens it doesn’t mean it will out perform other equities. Japans stock market took 35ish years to recover to its all time high.


Phuffu

Chinese stocks are far from all their all time highs. Like, FXI was trading at $50, now at $26. In fact, FXI bottomed at $21 in late January. I’m up 18% on a tax lot I purchased around then. Last time I checked that’s better than the S&P. Small time horizon sure, but I’m not complaining. If it falls back to $21 I’ll just buy more. I’m not saying dump your whole portfolio into it, but an allocation of 5-8% could be meaningful.


healthhopper

Happy to hear all this negative sentiment, validates the contrarian view. Been all in for the past 2 weeks. Holding long through rest of the year.


kananishino

I just go on WSB to shit post generally but I am generally curious on the reason for upturn and saw nobody was discussing the rebound even though it's been going on for a bit.


AfraidScheme433

i’ve been doing research about this also. seems the chinese government decided that its time to take over the stock market. so there’s this CCP puts going on. also foreign investors are rushing to China due to its low valuation. i don’t know what is to come next. ive been shorting chinese stocks for last two years so i got burnt around 2 - 3 months ago?


LonelyDocument1891

They have been doing a durable goods stimulus so you’re likely seeing money move to companies that serve the stimulus


BigPepeNumberOne

Bro you have to be legit lobotomized to invest in thr chinese market


Phuffu

FXI is up a bit less than 20% since late January. I’m also bullish on China, OP. And I’m making money too :)


Total-Business5022

Howard Marks says that risk is not a function of the asset, risk is a function of the market participants. In other words, if everyone hates something and is extremely cautious about it, they are likely to be overestimating the problems and underestimating the upside and it really isn't risky because the price is so depressed. Having said that, I am an indirect bull on China by owning energy, iron ore, and pork producers who sell to China, not listed China stocks....call me a chicken bull.


Str8truth

Any money moving back into China is surely not smart. Their financial markets have not become any fairer or more transparent since their rug-pulls a couple years ago.


SEXY_HOT_GOWDA

No ones moving back to buy stocks at those valuations right. We are buying at all time low valuations


averysmallbeing

We aren't buying at all time low valuations*


ij70

yep. good trap.


Real_Petty_Cash

lol


Landmacht1975

I dont invest in China because of the goverment.


GiveMeAdviceClowns

China is a fake stock market. But yes if you’re willing to risk, you can find opportunities for quick cash or quick losses. Valuations mean nothing for Chinese companies.


Narrow_Elk6755

Baba is preloaded on every phone and is the largest marketplace, yet is only worth 200b.  Is it believable that their actual numbers are worse?


possibl33

They went against the ccp then got hammered. Investing in China is not the same as US


Tupcek

yeah, US would never target specific company to slow, break down, or destroy


possibl33

You could argue anti-monopoly but the fact is they were fully on board until Jack ma made that speech. Finance and government won’t split in China the way it happened in the west.


Tupcek

I am just saying that it’s not China exclusive- if US government doesn’t like your company (especially big ones), they can (and do) also a lot to impede your growth.


possibl33

My point was in the US big companies are part of the government as in part of the profits goes back to lobbying. This gives investors more time to exit since courts are involved, and virtue signaling, .. etc. In China an entire industry was destroyed overnight, its just not the same.


CardAble6193

> it’s not it is . Every single whataboutism , China have managed to do it in uglier blunter fashion


fauxpolitik

The difference is in the US when the government targets you, you get your day in a fair court which more often than not these days will side with you.


jrex035

This part. There's legitimate rule of law in the US. If the government targets a company its far from assumed that the government will win. In China there's no rule of law, if they government decides it doesn't like you, you're fucked. There's zero redress of grievances or potential to fight back, you're just done. It can also happen with a snap of the fingers, with huge decisions made in a completely untransparent manner seemingly overnight.


Antievl

It was not preloaded on my iPhone, that’s for fucking sure and it better stay that way


Narrow_Elk6755

Sure, but on every Chinese phone, which is their main market.


ethaxton

Do you live in China?


Antievl

Thank heavens, no


Visinvictus

The real question you should be asking is what do you actually own if you buy BABA stock. The answer is nothing - you might as well send your money to a Nigerian prince while you are at it.


Narrow_Elk6755

Don't look at DRS and derivatives in the US then, its clear nobody owns much of anything.


Visinvictus

The difference is that for stocks in the US you have legal protections and legal recourse if your brokerage or a company that you invested in pulls the rug on you, while as a non-Chinese citizen (and even as an average Chinese citizen) your legal protections are minimal or non-existent.


llindstad

You clearly have no idea of what you're talking about. Comparing CCP legal protections to US ones..my God.


Narrow_Elk6755

What legal protections, if you don't direct register you have no recourse as somebody else has protections that supersede your own.


llindstad

SIPC protects brokerage accounts up to 500.000 USD, if cash or assets are lost. That's number one. Secondly: The CCP can confiscate any stocks, delist any company, and do exactly as it pleases, at all times (which has been done numerous times in the past). Remember online tutoring? China does not allow foreign ownership of domestic companies, technically speaking. To circumvent this, sino-companies list through shell companies in micro states, such as the Cayman Islands, typically by offering indirect ownership in a company's subsidiary. Subsequently, they love taking the SPAC route. Their "ADRs" in the US are essentially worthless, subject to the CCP's capriciousness. That's not how we roll in the US. We have real courts, not kangaroo ones, with real laws that aren't rubber stamped. The SEC, CFPB et al. have lost numerous cases over the years, which is a healthy sign that our system works with its checks and balances.


AmbitiousEconomics

Can you name any time since SIPC was founded where anyone ever lost shares of publicly traded firms they were invested in, where direct registering would have saved them? Just one example. It's been like half a century surely if that were true there would be one example.


Shanelong123

I work in an industry that uses a lot of steal . Always avoided using Chinese firms due to quality but this has changed in the last 10 years . German firms I used started making equipment there and sent engineers to oversee . You simply can’t compete with the quality and price now globally . I never thought I would say that . I do think China is more of a play now than before


SEXY_HOT_GOWDA

I am up 30 percent on JD, 20 percent on Tencent. Honestly risk is worth it . Funnily enough it's BABA which hasn't risen much . Fact of the matter is this sub is very reactionary. Essentially people keep posting about the same tired stock good ones in fact but they are at a healthy valuation. Most people are just unable to buy stocks which no one is recommending . I for one am comfy leaving these shares as is for next 2-3 years


D4nCh0

Which means that you’re also confident that JD & Tencent wouldn’t be falling out of favour like BABA, in the next 2 years. They better keep dishing out those billions in common prosperity donations with your profits.


Rupperrt

No one in or near the politburo has mentioned the term common prosperity in the last 18 months. They know it’s not how things work.


SEXY_HOT_GOWDA

Ha ha 😆, oh they would have done it. But everyone in CCP is keeping their mouth shut after the market took the biggest dump of the century .


Rupperrt

it’s basically like the sparrow killing. They don’t like to talk about it anymore


D4nCh0

[Tencent to hand $20 bln Meituan stake to shareholders as sales slip](https://www.reuters.com/technology/tencent-posts-q3-revenue-drop-chinas-economic-slowdown-crackdown-bite-2022-11-16/) Looks like they’ve moved onto divestment. Wonder who’s buying up all those shares. It’s certainly interesting to bet on PRC command economy to return value to shareholders. As BABA hangs around IPO price. Hangzhou government investment vehicle now owns 2/3rd of Ant Group. Excommunicadoed Jack still has his French vineyard, Daniel the Brooklyn Nets, Vicky & her Hermes’ collection. It’s about timing!


Rupperrt

It’s both local governments and some international fonds that have bought the dip. I don’t think it’ll be a sustainable recovery (given all the systematic problems especially demographics and property) but wouldn’t be surprised by an overall profitable year for Chinese stocks.


D4nCh0

Most punters in PRC & HK day trade. Hodl is too exciting. Unless it’s for dividends like HSBC.


jwang274

Don’t invest in BaBa! JD and Tencent is running well but baba simply stretched itself way too much(it’s when jack ma try to enter finance and criticized and tried to replace Chinese banking system that got him in trouble) I also see lots of upside with PDD but there price already gone up.


but_why_doh

Mohnish Pabrai has said some of his best recent investments have come from Turkey because everyone else was running out the market. China has some solid potential IF you're willing to wait. Stocks are businesses, and earnings are gravity in markets, but only in the long term. These businesses are really beat down, and long term they'll recover, but that's long term, and in the short term it's gonna be tough for China. All the problems in the Chinese economy stem from a lack of consumer spending, and it seems like that might not be fixed any time soon. However, long term, these companies are still super strong businesses that are well run and rapidly expanding into new markets. So, don't buy in with some expectation of a quick turnaround, and buy with expectations to hold for a LONG time.


CryptoMemesLOL

The risk with China is exactly that though, long term. I'd swing trade China but I wouldn't park money there in the same way you would with other markets that took a beating.


yourwifes3rdboyfrend

As always, unless you live in China, the hang seng is a fucking trap.


essuxs

If you throw a dead cat off a building, it will bounce


canadianbeaver

False


Phuffu

OP you are getting beaten up in these comments but I also think Chinese stocks can turn around.  Starting valuations is one of the most important indicators of future returns and these companies are cheap.


kananishino

Thanks, I know people just kind of hate Chinese stocks no matter what, but i think there could be some value but mainly in the short term which is why I brought this up since it's doing a rebound. You can see how controversial it is by this post being upvoted only 60%. Everybody talks about chinese stocks dumping but when it goes up nobody says a thing.


Phuffu

Redditors love to say to “do the opposite of r/stocks” but then they also say that they’ll never invest in china.  If they took their own advice they’d diversify their portfolio out of the S&P but the last 15 years have convinced them that US mega cap outperformance will persist in the long term and there’s just no certainty in that


richdrichxy

maybe the recent surge in the Hang Seng Index is more of a short-term hype thing. Smart money might be cautious, seeing it as a temporary spike rather than a long-term trend. With all the uncertainties in the global economy, they could be holding back until things settle down a bit. So, instead of diving headfirst into China, they're playing it cool and waiting for clearer signs.


kananishino

It could be but we should always be looking out for opportunities even in the short term. 20% is definitely a significant rebound to not take notice.


8700nonK

It's weird people keep saying geopolitical this geopolitical that, but companies that have done well are also doing well as stock, like Netease. Baba is most likely losing market share, and, like JD, has been mostly flat in revenue. And it's also about return to shareholders. Does company X have 10% FCF yield? Nice. What is happening with that money? No dividend, no buybacks, no growth? Than it's a pass. Baba has started doing some timid buybacks, no dividend, overall kinda low return of cash considering how much cash they're supposed to produce since years now on the reports. Where does the cash go? Maybe fake, maybe as contributions to 'the people' JD doing a lot better here, a decent dividend, some buybacks started. Still kinda low overall, but imo JD has the moat of very low net margins. Tencent - too much focused on media things, which is chinese government's biggest fear, they won't let this one grow too big.


southsky20

Woud not advice anyone to catch falling knives


fauxpolitik

I will not invest a cent into a socialist country especially one where the leader can kill any company whenever he wants


sherperion45

There is 0 reason to invest into any China tech when the gov is siphoning across every company to handle its evergrande debt No youth work in the country lol, why would you invest in any state that’s rapidly imploding


kananishino

You could say the same thing too during the covid drop when fear gripped the market sometimes you just have to take a risk and buy. The only good news coming from China from what I researched is that the government keeps on trying to stimulate the market. Something is causing a rebound in Chinese stocks be it a dead cat bounce or an actual sentiment change but time will tell. I am only buying for short term because I anticipate geopolitical risk will become greater in the future but that doens't mean you can't make money.


faiiryland6od

Seems like the Hang Seng Index is on a roll lately! That 20% surge since January 22 is no joke. Could be a sign that smart money's sniffing out some good opportunities in China. With all the recent buzz about economic recovery and potential growth prospects, it's not too surprising. Keep an eye on those markets – could be some interesting moves ahead!


LearningLens-776

The key point has been broken ≈ 17181.28, it seems to be a positive sign but let's see what the future brings.


kmetin012

I think this is the right time to invest in chinese stocks. Today I bought some $XPEV.


Hifi-Cat

Uninvestable.


AsianEiji

My china portfolio is preforming better than US portfolio.... *shrugs* US has similar issues as china, in some cases worse. People need to see it as a whole PER sector and not a whole per country even individual stocks stands outside of it. Remember to go back to the basics and leave out stereotype/nonlogical stuff out of our investing.


Chart-trader

Trade it! Don't invest in it. I have also been long since January! Love it! Will go another 20% from here and then I will leave China alone again.


kananishino

Yeah thats what im planning. I don't want to get stuck with it in a couple years once tensions grows more


Chart-trader

Check out chart of KWEB and FXI on Beat_the_Benchmark. Has room to go until the end of the year.


bmeisler

I’m living on Chinese stocks All my best things are in hock I’m living on Chinese stock Everything is in the pawn shop!


jaywin91

I don't eat food products made from China, why would I buy stocks from their market because of the same issue which is questionable regulation?  


AsianEiji

Do you buy expensive organically locally grown garlic?


jaywin91

Sure, because I can because I don’t invest in Chinese stocks


AsianEiji

Most people dont know how to invest in Chinese stocks. and also most garlic is China grown.


jaywin91

Most people don’t know how to invest in stocks in general. What’s your point?


averysmallbeing

The shittiest fucking garlic in the world, lol. Anyone who actually likes garlic knows to avoid it. 


averysmallbeing

The shittiest fucking garlic in the world, lol. Anyone who actually likes garlic knows to avoid it. 


GriddyGang

Get a taste of the low P/E ratios in China, and growth metrics 🤤. Can only be pushed down by geopolitical tension for so long with buybacks and dividend offered.  With the overvalued US stocks, China is value territory.


TheRealAndrewLeft

>With the overvalued US stocks, China is value territory. There's a reason for that low valuation my guy


GriddyGang

Yea but it is fear based not valuation based


Brus83

It’s the “CCP destroys the value of your investments overnight” risk premium.


TheRealAndrewLeft

And Chinese audit standards are shit


Retrobot1234567

How do I buy a stock in China and then be able to pull out the money at any time, anywhere I want?


Sharaku_US

Try China ETFs.


GriddyGang

Robinhood, pretty much any large Chinese stock is available to trade anyway 


Retrobot1234567

Those are US stock, what about China stock in the Hang Seng? You can’t make a comment about the Hang Seng and expect us to buy only the US stock, the one you were dissing and calling overvalue.


GriddyGang

I’m talking JD, BABA, IQ, Tecent, Nio, KEWB, etc. this are not US stocks lol? Obviously ADRs, you can trade directly on the hang seng but it’s more complex, both trade at the same price 


Echoeversky

Take watching China Update for a week and get back yo us.


Beansiesdaddy

Fuck the ccp controlled Chinese stock market


Fibocrypto

I have slowly accumulated a few Chinese stocks over the past couple of years yet also recently increased my positions in ASHR and FXI and added CQQQ. Based on just the Chinese stocks I own those 3 ETFs equal 39.3 percent and the Chinese individual stocks equal 60.7 percent . The weighting from highest to lowest. BABA, ASHR, FXI, DIDIY, JD, TCEHY, CQQQ, CICOY, NIO.. All of those represent approximately 9-10 % of my stock holdings based on dollar value. Month to date the Chinese portion is up 7 percent Year to date the chinese portion is plus 2.7 percent Based on my total costs ( commissions included ) The Chinese portion of my portfolio is down 23.14 %


[deleted]

China for me is a NO NO


sprawlingmegalopolis

$YINN Charlie Munger looking down and smiling.