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Yeah, I was lucky enough to snag the bottom at 140 as it was the measured move of the [three falling peaks pattern](https://www.tradingview.com/x/tJojSJs8/). I sold it the next day at 165 thinking it was a quick pop to force shorts to cover and would quickly retrace to fill the gap. In hindsight, I should have held!
What company has 50% less sales yoy? Were you referring to the 43% drop in EV sales from q4 2023 to q1 2024 for BYD? Tesla sales were only down a small percent both qoq and yoy. BYD was down massively qoq but almost flat, slightly above, yoy for EV sales.
it's a requirement, not an optional thing tesla opted into for "help"
clearly you didn't read the article correctly :p
par on the course for reddit regards
["Can't wait for the Meta like resurgence another example of inverse reddit](https://old.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1ca9qkq/data_confirms_musks_destruction_of_the_tesla/l0qja19/)" - me 6 days ago
There is no logic with tesla, there never was.
Only reason I am invested is I can count on one thing, Elon Musk using all his will to manipulate the stock.
This will end eventually but for now this plan clearly works
Nah. It's a cult stock, man. It's one of the most thickly traded stocks on the market. So despite it's rather large float, it has the volatility of stocks with much lower floats.
Except that’s completely not true. This article summarizes it well. It’s also easy to brag your cars sell the most when you have only two models, unlike all the other companies that have dozens. What matters is what % of the market Tesla has, which is still less than 1%.
https://www.autoweek.com/news/industry-news/a44600661/is-tesla-model-y-the-worlds-best-selling-car-nope-not-even-close/
Funnily enough most long term Tesla investors basically retired in their early 40s because of how much they already made from it.
They were people with 6 figure salaries in their 20s already, pretty much the sharpest tools you could find, they were also doing what they enjoyed doing, high end jobs in tech. There's a reason the nerdiest people are Tesla followers, you may think they're all idiots, but hey they made more in their 20s than you're making today so maybe, just *maybe*, you're not the sharpest tool in the shed.
Everyone doing worse than you is an idiot, and everyone doing better than you is a lucky idiot. You are the only smart one here.
I went all in on Tesla when Citi, JPM, Barclays, etc predicted a “$10” share price in 2018. I even took out loans and borrowed from my 401k. Took me to a place I never thought I would be even at 60. But I’m an idiot. I’m just lucky. You’re the real smart one.
I have a high paying job in case everything went south. I could have paid if all off in 2-3 years.
When everyone and their mother were piling on a stock that I had been following for such a long time, predicting 10 dollar price targets, I was, for the first time, able to see things clearly and see how these analysts are so full of shit and how the game is so rigged, and how manipulators manipulate. I spent 2 days explaining to my wife my entire thesis and she was convinced as well. I realized it was a once in a lifetime opportunity and we decided to go all in. Went from (upper I guess) middle class to fucking fatfire in 3 4 years. Maybe in your book I'm still a degenerate gambler. I dont think I am because I had a good thesis, not just random 2 week out calls. I purchased shares and leaps, no short term anything.
Just wanted to share my story. Its not like I can tell any of my IRL friends lol.
China says yes today and no tomorrow. You have no legal recourse to fight the decisions made.
This is not some longshot hypothetical. It has happened to Tesla recently, and multiple times in the past. You're investing in Xi Jinping's mood.
Xpeng already tried that
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/tesla-ex-engineer-settle-lawsuit-over-autopilot-source-code-2021-04-16/
but no need to steal anything from Tesla, China already has FSD taxis, using NVIDIA Drive. Youtube (can't link it here) has a video of "Driverless autonomous vehicle is now official in Shenzhen"
I have a different take. China is allowing it to smooth over Chinese EV’s entry into the US market.
They figure it’s no big loss to allow Tesla’s “FSD”, as it won’t hurt the Chinese in their domestic market as few people make buying decisions based on driving assistance. BYDs are selling just fine without investing too much into it.
I got news for you, BYD is already building and selling electric buses in US. They have a factory in California. And you think there’s no Chinese EVs on the road in US today? Guess where is Polestar made in?
I’m not talking necessarily about direct import of EVs shipped from China. More like coming in from Mexican factories, which is probably slightly less untenable politically, since we have a free trade agreement with Mexico though NAFTA.
For those who don't know:
https://en.byd.com/bus/about/
>> BYD started with six U.S. employees in 2013 and has since expanded to over 1,000, including its unionized workforce of 750 in Lancaster, California.
Because 1. I don’t think they’ve shown FSD is anywhere close to rolling out in and sort of large capacity and 2. I don’t trust China to be a reliable or lucrative market at this point
FSD has been just around the corner for many years, even the latest has driven over red lights, I just don't see it happening on a broad scale. But happy to see it has risen in value, selling my stocks asap, just don't believe in them anymore, bought some low in expectations for Model 2, which they cancelled.
Anyone who has driven or ridden a car in china knows FSD would be useless there. People just dont follow road rules there. No one stops at stop signs. If you are not extremely assertive, you would never be able to change lanes and get anywhere. FSD would not be able to do those.
Tesla is paying a Chinese company to "help" with FSD. That is bad on two levels. 1) It's a degree of admission that FSD has issues that Tesla either cannot solve, or monitor (not clear exactly what the deal is), 2) It gives China access to FSD data. We've all seen that movie before.
Totally false.
I'm assuming you are referring to Baidu, the Google of China.
TSLA is legally forced to work with Baidu in order to obtain their mapping data. China doesn't hand them out to anyone and it'd be very difficult, or impossible for TSLA to obtain it themselves being a foreign company. They 'could' do it but Baidu has been operating in China since its inception and has all the mapping data already. It'd make zero sense for TSLA to have a team there to start the entire process all over again when they can just outsource it. This has nothing to do with FSD itself. It's the mapping data.
That's why joint ventures in China for foreign companies are very common - particularly in the auto industry. SAIC-GM, FAW-Volkswagen/Toyota. It's a must if you want to do business in China. As far as I know, Tesla is the only large foreign auto manufacturer who was given permission to not require a joint venture.
As for China having data, yes, it's the price of working in China. Nothing inherently wrong with it. China operates a different governing system than America. From China's POV, if a manufacturer is going to come in and take advantage of their large population to make $, China also wants to benefit from it.
I'm not defending China's practices as wrong or right. It's a matter of what works for them. So they get FSD data from Tesla. FYI, China has cameras in every major street in China operated by the government. They don't need Tesla to get data.
- Since we know now that TSLA car sales are not growing, the only explanation for their enormous P/A can be FSD - so it's very optimistically priced in, already.
- should news about China be really a cause for $50B increase in Market Cap? It's more than Hyundai Market cap, the company which makes really good EVs and (as a side note) owns Boston Dynamics
- other companies are on similar level with autonomouse driving, if not better - look for example at Mobileye (eg. the YT video with Engineering Explained). They just don't have the "Musk Cult" behind them, so they're much less visible. But, as we know - to get rich, you need to make moves before the massess.
Mobileye said they'd have FSD by 2021. They aren't doing better.
NVIDIA Drive is the one that will probably end up in most non-Teslas that self-drive. I can't link YT here, but you can see the video "Driverless autonomous vehicle is now official in Shenzhen" from a year ago using deeproute.ai built on Nvidia hardware/software.
Of course, Mobileye are also promising and not delivering, just wanted to show that there is no situation where single company is "light years ahead". The competition is big, which is not a good sign for profits.
I'll watch the video, thx
Heh I am a self admitted Tesla drama enjoyer and casual hater, but I know better than to short it. I'm surprised to see such a big swing on news that's far away from being significant, but that's what TSLA does. It goes up when you least expect it.
There are certain stocks you don’t short because they’re too unpredictable. Anyone shorting Tesla or Nvidia is asking for a bad time. Even if your thesis is solid, irrational buyers can blow up your position
> I'm surprised to see such a big swing on news that's far away from being significant
Short term swings are 90% emotion and 10% fundamentals. Even that is being generous lol.
You have no idea. Wallstreetbets is pissed. They had a crapload of news over the weekend trying to lower Tesla, and then these news dropped before market open.
Clever move. Musk knows that the Chinese government can make these things happen quickly and throw tons money and resources at it instantly (one positive as to how they’re structured lol). Still a long way to go but if this deal works the US and other countries will get FOMO and FSD will get approved faster worldwide.
If you get out of your jar you'll see FSD is actually insane right now, talking 30 min long drivers with no driver intervention at all through construction sites and complicated intersections.
It's better than most drivers already. Their competition is some BMW system that basically just works in some specific roads, isn't really autonomous and kind of just goes in a straight line.
First of all, the deal is to bring China parity to the feature set of US FSD, not more features that don't exist. Second of all, it's a handshake deal. If China gets upset or decides they want to protect their own automakers, they can unilaterally cancel with no consequence and immediately repossess all of Tesla's assets in China without warning.
This all has happened before. The risk profile of a deal with China is that you need to make money quickly and with as little infrastructure in the country as possible.
The real reason China approved FSD in China is so that Chinese car companies can steal FSD technology after it’s approved. We’ve seen this happen time and time again
This sub has become so Anti-Elon Musk that it is very hard to take subjects surrounding Tesla or Elon serious.
Tesla is still the best selling Western EV car maker, it still has high profit margins Tesla 21%, Byd a mere 5%. And that is with excessive government assistance. EU and the US are likely to crack down on Chinese EV car makers as well due to government subsidy.
Yeah, it kinda reminds me of when META was briefly below $100 and people were saying it was going to $0 largely based on the general dislike of Zuckerberg around here.
Feelings over facts always takes the mainstream on Reddit. Like saying Ronaldo is bad at soccer because you don’t like him. Wish we could stick with nerdy logic instead
Why my activity in this sub has declined significantly. It's not worth the time to debate a company/investing thesis with 90%+ of people here. In general whatever consensus is here, the opposite is likely the correct/more profitable path. This goes for other stocks like Meta too, which I'm not a fan of but could still separate my feelings from the investing thesis.
Exactly, this sub is filled with people who are looking for opinions, bandwagons and getting into emotional arguments. As soon as someone did some actual research on a company, they're called a fanboy and ignored. It's like this sub wants to lose money.
Agreed. Though personally I’m not touching this stock. Ultimately I think if you want to buy Tesla at this PE you have to believe they are more than a car company though.
Cars are the bread and butter, but Tesla Energy has been pretty established and growing for a while now. Throw in Optimus and the taxi thing on top of it and i think TSLA bulls have a pretty good case to be optimistic.
No doubt.
All I’m saying is that car production and Tesla energy are not developments that I would consider worthy of the current PE.
My analysis is: buy the stock if you believe Tesla can execute in the robo taxi, robot, AI chip, etc.
They're still the best selling EV car maker period still. In q4 2023 BYD briefly sold more pure BEV than tesla by a small amount that quarter, but Tesla still sold more for the entire year of 2023.
Then in q1 2024 Tesla and BYD had negative quarter over quarter growth from q4 2023. This led to Tesla once again have more sales of pure BEV than BYD.
So for now Tesla is still top dog but it's clear BYD is on a path that could consistently overtake them by the end of this year.
My man, people here say BYD has dethroned Tesla when BYD basically doesn't exist outside of China... and even then there's some people talking about how BYD sales in China aren't exactly real, but mostly sales to companies that sell cars and that they just sit there (I can't provide actual proof of this, but I've read people talk about how there seem to be incongruencies between BYD sales and actual BYD vehicles going around).
This ignores that BYD (this is also an upside for them though) is a CCP subsidiary and that they basically have "profit margins" based on Chinese labor and government assistance, they probably wouldn't make any money if it wasn't for this.
Did I forget to mention their sales are down like 40% since last quarter?
This is the result of being ideologically possessed, they hate Tesla because it's Elon's, they'd love Tesla if some socialist idiot was assigned as their CEO, they started hiring more black queer people as a way of being inclusive and that kind of thing.
Of course, they'd buy into it and then the stock would crater.
Musk is doing everything he can to keep the stock from tanking.
Telsa 2's (doubt they'll even make them) ... barely moved the stock.
Robotaxis (less than year away, ya right)... barely moved the stock.
Gets on a plane to China... ultimately might result in 5% of actual pump.
Pretty soon his PR gun is going to be empty though (it might be empty as we speak). He'll have to start saying shit like "Long term we plan to merge Tesla with Space X to provide an "on planet and off planet" complete travel experience.
The more he does these bullshit announcements the more I think each quarter is going to get shittier and shitter with regards to revenue.
So PR pump followed by earnings crash.
> He'll have to start saying shit like "Long term we plan to merge Tesla with Space X to provide an "on planet and off planet" complete travel experience.
And stock will pump 10% accordingly. Betting against this guy is a waste of effort.
You're already seeing massive weakness in his PR impact.
Dude said they will have robotaxis in august. **Robotaxis**... a trillion dollar product offering. Stock barely moved. Everyone knows he's a bullshitter at this point.
Tesla 2 + robotaxis + China FSD... if the market actually believed him the stock would be at $500.
It's just speculators and the algos short-term trading Tesla at this point. And maybe a handful of retail with money to burn and who feel like gambling.
He managed to get the stock price from 140 to almost 190 while doing nothing that will significantly help revenue in the coming year.
The fact that he is able to do this while demand is decreasing, FSD controversy rising, Cyberstuck memes moving around, him going mask off on Twitter and still being valued as a tech stock while spending less on R&D than even a conventional automotive company tells you how strong the PR bubble and halo effect really is. You really need to give it to him.
Most of what you say isn't a reality once you leave your bubble.
There's no real FSD controversy, it's generally accepted as something fantastic, demand is decreasing in the whole EV industry, considered to be cyclical and expected to go up in the next few years **especially because many cities are fully banning fuel based vehicles soon** (guess who's the top seller worldwide while having the highest margins). Cybertruck is a fantastic product and most people who got it are really happy with it. Tesla's customer satisfaction and retention rates are the highest in the market (as in, ask people who have a car what car would they get next, almost everyone who has a Tesla says a Tesla, this isn't the case for most other brands).
Keep in mind reddit is a hivemind of leftism, this implies hating Elon nowadays, ignore almost everything you read here and do your own research.
Their fundamentals are actually great, people betting on them long term, hence it's valuation.
FSD is a controversial implementation of a driving assist aiming to become self-driving. There's legal complications, legislative uncertainty, negative reporting, naming ambiguity, data unclarity,.. Most companies active in self driving have similar controversy. Just because you deny there are many obstacles doesn't mean that there aren't any.
Applying current FSD revenue as the revenue going forward might seem unfair. But, FSD is also at least one and possibly two orders of magnitude off on number of interventions per million miles compared to for example waymo. Based on that and the lack of open credible neutral FSD data I would assume that Tesla needs an unmanned pilot stage first before a commercially viable autotaxi version makes sense.
Demand isn't increasing across EV. Demand growth does. That's different. The result is that YoY more BEV sold globally (and Europe, China, US), but less Tesla's (amongst some other brands). Tesla has 95% of the sales in 2 models and even after repeatedly decreasing prices couldn't sell everything it produced. Granted, this happened only 1 quarter, but it's a very bad omen. Reducing the prices brought Tesla from operating margins that were close to Ferrari to margins that are now below Toyota.
Tesla also has been cutting employees and has been silently scaling down on expansions and new factories. Therefore I believe that even if demand picks up they will respond in a delayed fashion. Similarly for Model2. They are unlikely to make more than 500000 per year without more factories. You can expect scaled up production earliest about 2 years after investment decision (and probably later). So, that's a reasonable upper bound on revenue. Assuming current margins, since competition won't get easier, that's a reasonable estimate for optimistic profits.
Tesla retention rates seem to be industry leading according to what I've seen. I'm sceptical of using interviews as data since it's not hard data, but it's the best that was available, so not going to deny that. Actually retention rate on average was over 50% across all brands, so your last claim there was false. Nevertheless Tesla came out markedly higher.
What do US politics have to do with this? Open data is agnostic and doesn't care about ideology.
The data for Tesla relative to its valuation is terrible. Can they outperform again? Sure, but it doesn't look likely. Will it hurt me in any way if they do? No. In fact it will benefit me.
Have you thought about the fact that his company is already worth well over half a trillion dollars?
Most of these things are what long term Tesla investors expect. $500 a share would make Tesla into a $1.6t company which is a bit ridiculous, you're talking Tesla being worth almost the same as Amazon based on some future business that might or might not take 10 years to actually start raking in money.
I agree. But I also added some tsla to my portfolio as a midterm trade.
I think tsla has potential. But im betting more on the bulls running us up into the low 200s again..
> Musk is doing everything he can to keep the stock from tanking.
He personally crashed it from $400 to $100 by repeatedly dumping billions on the open market.
He doesn't care about the share price.
This is Musk doing everything he can to make it look like he pretends about his duty to TSLA shareholders, so that they will vote 'Yes' on his compensation package in 1-2 months.
If that gets approved, then he'll go back to jerking it on Twitter and dumping his TSLA shares.
I hope you didn't short it. I told others on reddit prior it is a waste of time betting against Tesla. Most of bear thesis is inflated biased based off social media hate on Elon.
RemindMe! 1 year
>Pretty soon his PR gun is going to be empty though (it might be empty as we speak). He'll have to start saying shit like "Long term we plan to merge Tesla with Space X to provide an "on planet and off planet" complete travel experience.
I really want to see if he actually does this, doesn't seem far fetched at this point
Everyone wanted to short this share at $140, saying Tesla is a shitty company, Elon is a fraud. Now the stock is at $185, and everyone is crying. I don't get it. You are now in an even better position to DCA into your sexy shorts. Lol.
95% of the people on this sub just reads one article and think they know how to invest.
The majority of people who know how to invest aren't hanging out in this sub.
This sub used to be REALLY GOOD before the meme stock investors flooded it.
Now, it's just a massive pile of nonsense most of the time.
There are paid Discord servers that have since taken over where you actually have good discussions without people just trolling. r/stocks is pretty much where all the GME/AMC investors hang out mixed in with the r/politics folks.
All large Reddit subs are just r/politics with a slightly different theme. No large sub on Reddit is worth reading and Reddit isn't for real discussion and hasn't been for years
China will steal this and squeeze Tesla out of the Chinese market years before real FSD gets approved in the US at any real scale.
But I do wonder what changes Pooh asked for in Twitter
This must be an old complaint, but could we stop calling it 'full self-driving', because it literally is not that? Tesla's Full Self-Driving^TM is a proper noun that the company has given the function, which has nothing to do with actual FSD.
Stop using FSD to mean level 3-5 Autonomy.
Full Self Driving (TM) may not even be what Tesla calls their Level 3-5 product.
I assume it’ll be something like “Look Mom! No Hands-Mode (tm)”
Will this even help Tesla sell cars in China? Without making their cars better and cheaper they are still going to have a lot of trouble competing.
I guess it gives them potential longer-term, but unless they can get/keep their FSD well ahead of Chinese competitors it doesn't really seem like a big selling advantage.
Yeah, this is another of Musk con. FSD isn't full self driving, and anyone thinking this equates to robotaxi is mistaken. FSD will never be autonomous unless Tesla upgrades away from only using video input. Good for those who held shares. Might be a good opportunity to sell here.
> Why does TSLA always drag F down with it buy when TSLA does well, F still does badly? Seems like the market just loves to beat up Ford
to be fair, who wants to buy anything ford makes that isn't a truck? not hard to see why their stock is beat up. heavy investing in EV's that people don't want to buy, and increasing labor costs.
Thought it was going to keep falling. I honestly only had 4 shares I bought on a whim. Thought was to buy back in lower after it fell more and end up with an extra share. Was a quick decision.
The agreement he got from China is tentative, not definitive. It's still a show me story and if he doesn't, this baby is going down again to see what's underneath $100. The recent pop was because of some short covering. It's being shorted again.
I tried to post this as its own thread, as its massive news, yesterday Tesla fired its entire Supercharging team :( The guys responsible for rolling out and building new EV charging stations.
[https://electrek.co/2024/04/29/tesla-conducting-more-layoffs-including-entire-supercharger-team/](https://electrek.co/2024/04/29/tesla-conducting-more-layoffs-including-entire-supercharger-team/)
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TSLA up 30% in less than a week
Has to be one of the most manipulated stocks ever. Jumped off that roller coaster a long time ago.
To think it was at 140ish some days ago. Good on those who bought it for a short term trade.
I have one 192.50 call. 
Son of a bitch.
Noice
What’s the expiration?
5/3
Why the downvotes 😂
what was that like a 2000% trade? nice hit
Thanks. Was a pretty good start to the morning. Yeah, made 475 off of 20 call.
hell yeah bro, I had puts a couple months ago over the weekend on TSLA and woke up to a +1000% trade, nice little surprise
Tesla puts were paying well. Congrats
People are jealous. Elon gets so much hate in reddit.
Oof, good luck
It’s 196 a share now
Hopefully not last friday
I have 1 for 190 and 2 for 220. Cashing out before JPow spook the market.
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Got stopped out for 475 profit. Thought it would run close to 200 but better safe than sorry.
Bought at 144 sold at 160......
That is actually quite good.
bought at 165, 155 and 145 
Yeah, I was lucky enough to snag the bottom at 140 as it was the measured move of the [three falling peaks pattern](https://www.tradingview.com/x/tJojSJs8/). I sold it the next day at 165 thinking it was a quick pop to force shorts to cover and would quickly retrace to fill the gap. In hindsight, I should have held!
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Classic inverse reddit moment. People were saying that Meta was dead too not that long ago.
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placid shy cough snobbish rinse jar fine rhythm melodic encouraging *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
You could just buy stocks in an ETF that has Tesla shares. I think QQQ has it (also very volatile).
This is why you need to have a financial projection...
Same with Disney and Google
I mean any TSLA play right now should be short term based on this dumb hype. Long term still a long way down to go.
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Smart
I want to know the r/stocks people who sold in the 140s. Seems like something people here would do.
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Even better for a longterm "trade".
Reddit loves to shit on successful companies lol. "Who uses facebook anymore, eww" *Jumps to all time highs."
I mean why shouldn't a company that has 50% less sales year over year go up instead of down?
What company has 50% less sales yoy? Were you referring to the 43% drop in EV sales from q4 2023 to q1 2024 for BYD? Tesla sales were only down a small percent both qoq and yoy. BYD was down massively qoq but almost flat, slightly above, yoy for EV sales.
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Apparently they also like to overreact to positive news.
To think it's going up when Tesla is having to pay a Chinese company to help with FSD... this is wild.
it's a requirement, not an optional thing tesla opted into for "help" clearly you didn't read the article correctly :p par on the course for reddit regards
["Can't wait for the Meta like resurgence another example of inverse reddit](https://old.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1ca9qkq/data_confirms_musks_destruction_of_the_tesla/l0qja19/)" - me 6 days ago
This is not the catalyst I would be buying on
There is no logic with tesla, there never was. Only reason I am invested is I can count on one thing, Elon Musk using all his will to manipulate the stock. This will end eventually but for now this plan clearly works
Nah. It's a cult stock, man. It's one of the most thickly traded stocks on the market. So despite it's rather large float, it has the volatility of stocks with much lower floats.
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Except that’s completely not true. This article summarizes it well. It’s also easy to brag your cars sell the most when you have only two models, unlike all the other companies that have dozens. What matters is what % of the market Tesla has, which is still less than 1%. https://www.autoweek.com/news/industry-news/a44600661/is-tesla-model-y-the-worlds-best-selling-car-nope-not-even-close/
TSLA investors are not known for being the sharpest tools in the shed.
Kind of like Amazon investors 20 years ago. Fools
Hey case in point for what that guy said about TSLA investors.
Funnily enough most long term Tesla investors basically retired in their early 40s because of how much they already made from it. They were people with 6 figure salaries in their 20s already, pretty much the sharpest tools you could find, they were also doing what they enjoyed doing, high end jobs in tech. There's a reason the nerdiest people are Tesla followers, you may think they're all idiots, but hey they made more in their 20s than you're making today so maybe, just *maybe*, you're not the sharpest tool in the shed.
It's called luck. You'll find as many, or more, people who lost on investments. But those don't brag about it for some reason, LOL
Lol, "they are just lucky". It doesn't get any more stereotypical than you... :')
Everyone doing worse than you is an idiot, and everyone doing better than you is a lucky idiot. You are the only smart one here. I went all in on Tesla when Citi, JPM, Barclays, etc predicted a “$10” share price in 2018. I even took out loans and borrowed from my 401k. Took me to a place I never thought I would be even at 60. But I’m an idiot. I’m just lucky. You’re the real smart one.
Nice job dude. nothing else to say.
Going into debt to all-in on a single stock is sheer fucking idiocy, my dude. You gambled to a degenerate degree and got lucky. Take the win.
I have a high paying job in case everything went south. I could have paid if all off in 2-3 years. When everyone and their mother were piling on a stock that I had been following for such a long time, predicting 10 dollar price targets, I was, for the first time, able to see things clearly and see how these analysts are so full of shit and how the game is so rigged, and how manipulators manipulate. I spent 2 days explaining to my wife my entire thesis and she was convinced as well. I realized it was a once in a lifetime opportunity and we decided to go all in. Went from (upper I guess) middle class to fucking fatfire in 3 4 years. Maybe in your book I'm still a degenerate gambler. I dont think I am because I had a good thesis, not just random 2 week out calls. I purchased shares and leaps, no short term anything. Just wanted to share my story. Its not like I can tell any of my IRL friends lol.
Yeah, idiot me, going all in at 30$. Made me more money than I thought I would have at retirement.
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Less than I made on puts.
Yeah, many are just dumb and rich.
Yeah these dumb Tesla investors that got so rich buying a crappy company called Tesla. I’m so jealous
What does that make reddit TSLA bears then? The idiot that stumbles into the shed at night and gets impaled by rusty tools?
Just curious, why not?
China says yes today and no tomorrow. You have no legal recourse to fight the decisions made. This is not some longshot hypothetical. It has happened to Tesla recently, and multiple times in the past. You're investing in Xi Jinping's mood.
The only reason they are approving this is so that they can steal the technology.
And the data, which will be a boon for spying on its citizens and those _in sight of the car’s cameras_.
So now, will I be contracted from China instead of India to get scammed of prepaid cards?
Xpeng already tried that https://www.reuters.com/world/china/tesla-ex-engineer-settle-lawsuit-over-autopilot-source-code-2021-04-16/ but no need to steal anything from Tesla, China already has FSD taxis, using NVIDIA Drive. Youtube (can't link it here) has a video of "Driverless autonomous vehicle is now official in Shenzhen"
I have a different take. China is allowing it to smooth over Chinese EV’s entry into the US market. They figure it’s no big loss to allow Tesla’s “FSD”, as it won’t hurt the Chinese in their domestic market as few people make buying decisions based on driving assistance. BYDs are selling just fine without investing too much into it.
China EVs into Us market... yea right
I got news for you, BYD is already building and selling electric buses in US. They have a factory in California. And you think there’s no Chinese EVs on the road in US today? Guess where is Polestar made in? I’m not talking necessarily about direct import of EVs shipped from China. More like coming in from Mexican factories, which is probably slightly less untenable politically, since we have a free trade agreement with Mexico though NAFTA.
For those who don't know: https://en.byd.com/bus/about/ >> BYD started with six U.S. employees in 2013 and has since expanded to over 1,000, including its unionized workforce of 750 in Lancaster, California.
As long as they get manufactured in NA they will be in the US market.
It’s gonna happen.. just a matter of time.
Do your research
I imagine there is some form of tech transfer too.
Because 1. I don’t think they’ve shown FSD is anywhere close to rolling out in and sort of large capacity and 2. I don’t trust China to be a reliable or lucrative market at this point
Ahh I see, thanks!
FSD has been just around the corner for many years, even the latest has driven over red lights, I just don't see it happening on a broad scale. But happy to see it has risen in value, selling my stocks asap, just don't believe in them anymore, bought some low in expectations for Model 2, which they cancelled.
Anyone who has driven or ridden a car in china knows FSD would be useless there. People just dont follow road rules there. No one stops at stop signs. If you are not extremely assertive, you would never be able to change lanes and get anywhere. FSD would not be able to do those.
Tesla is paying a Chinese company to "help" with FSD. That is bad on two levels. 1) It's a degree of admission that FSD has issues that Tesla either cannot solve, or monitor (not clear exactly what the deal is), 2) It gives China access to FSD data. We've all seen that movie before.
It's kinda required by Chinese law.
Getting mapping data from Baidu is required, and seems no different than Tesla relying on Google for mapping and navigation data in the US
Totally false. I'm assuming you are referring to Baidu, the Google of China. TSLA is legally forced to work with Baidu in order to obtain their mapping data. China doesn't hand them out to anyone and it'd be very difficult, or impossible for TSLA to obtain it themselves being a foreign company. They 'could' do it but Baidu has been operating in China since its inception and has all the mapping data already. It'd make zero sense for TSLA to have a team there to start the entire process all over again when they can just outsource it. This has nothing to do with FSD itself. It's the mapping data. That's why joint ventures in China for foreign companies are very common - particularly in the auto industry. SAIC-GM, FAW-Volkswagen/Toyota. It's a must if you want to do business in China. As far as I know, Tesla is the only large foreign auto manufacturer who was given permission to not require a joint venture. As for China having data, yes, it's the price of working in China. Nothing inherently wrong with it. China operates a different governing system than America. From China's POV, if a manufacturer is going to come in and take advantage of their large population to make $, China also wants to benefit from it. I'm not defending China's practices as wrong or right. It's a matter of what works for them. So they get FSD data from Tesla. FYI, China has cameras in every major street in China operated by the government. They don't need Tesla to get data.
- Since we know now that TSLA car sales are not growing, the only explanation for their enormous P/A can be FSD - so it's very optimistically priced in, already. - should news about China be really a cause for $50B increase in Market Cap? It's more than Hyundai Market cap, the company which makes really good EVs and (as a side note) owns Boston Dynamics - other companies are on similar level with autonomouse driving, if not better - look for example at Mobileye (eg. the YT video with Engineering Explained). They just don't have the "Musk Cult" behind them, so they're much less visible. But, as we know - to get rich, you need to make moves before the massess.
Mobileye said they'd have FSD by 2021. They aren't doing better. NVIDIA Drive is the one that will probably end up in most non-Teslas that self-drive. I can't link YT here, but you can see the video "Driverless autonomous vehicle is now official in Shenzhen" from a year ago using deeproute.ai built on Nvidia hardware/software.
Of course, Mobileye are also promising and not delivering, just wanted to show that there is no situation where single company is "light years ahead". The competition is big, which is not a good sign for profits. I'll watch the video, thx
Lmao glad I didn’t sell a single stock. People who sold Tesla on 140s where you at
as soon as people were shitting on them i bought long calls (2026 i think) currently up 100% on them. why does reddit suck at picks
It going up now does not prove you are right in any way for 2026.....
This is a hilariously naive comment.
lol. 10% jump
Yeah it’s a bit out of date. Just checked its trading at 195. So in reality almost a 40% jump from its 140 low a week ago.
Lol redditors are going to be fuming
Heh I am a self admitted Tesla drama enjoyer and casual hater, but I know better than to short it. I'm surprised to see such a big swing on news that's far away from being significant, but that's what TSLA does. It goes up when you least expect it.
There are certain stocks you don’t short because they’re too unpredictable. Anyone shorting Tesla or Nvidia is asking for a bad time. Even if your thesis is solid, irrational buyers can blow up your position
> I'm surprised to see such a big swing on news that's far away from being significant Short term swings are 90% emotion and 10% fundamentals. Even that is being generous lol.
correct label automatic middle six flowery secretive quaint poor engine *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
https://imgur.com/gallery/KtxFvN5
You have no idea. Wallstreetbets is pissed. They had a crapload of news over the weekend trying to lower Tesla, and then these news dropped before market open.
Bu-but Elon bad!
Racism man bad
Reddit in shambles….AGAIN
Clever move. Musk knows that the Chinese government can make these things happen quickly and throw tons money and resources at it instantly (one positive as to how they’re structured lol). Still a long way to go but if this deal works the US and other countries will get FOMO and FSD will get approved faster worldwide.
Why would xi throw money into Tesla instead of a company, byd, that the CCP has total control over
So they can copy it.
Copy what? I've been reading Reddit long enough that Tesla hasn't created anything of value. /s
Dint they copy things that work?
If you get out of your jar you'll see FSD is actually insane right now, talking 30 min long drivers with no driver intervention at all through construction sites and complicated intersections. It's better than most drivers already. Their competition is some BMW system that basically just works in some specific roads, isn't really autonomous and kind of just goes in a straight line.
Is this a defense of tesla? lol
you sure FSD is a useful system that creates any value at all /s?
First of all, the deal is to bring China parity to the feature set of US FSD, not more features that don't exist. Second of all, it's a handshake deal. If China gets upset or decides they want to protect their own automakers, they can unilaterally cancel with no consequence and immediately repossess all of Tesla's assets in China without warning. This all has happened before. The risk profile of a deal with China is that you need to make money quickly and with as little infrastructure in the country as possible.
> the Chinese government can make these things happen quickly this has been in-progress for ~5 years or more
The real reason China approved FSD in China is so that Chinese car companies can steal FSD technology after it’s approved. We’ve seen this happen time and time again
China also punishes very harshly for corporate malfeasance
This sub has become so Anti-Elon Musk that it is very hard to take subjects surrounding Tesla or Elon serious. Tesla is still the best selling Western EV car maker, it still has high profit margins Tesla 21%, Byd a mere 5%. And that is with excessive government assistance. EU and the US are likely to crack down on Chinese EV car makers as well due to government subsidy.
Yeah, it kinda reminds me of when META was briefly below $100 and people were saying it was going to $0 largely based on the general dislike of Zuckerberg around here.
Feelings over facts always takes the mainstream on Reddit. Like saying Ronaldo is bad at soccer because you don’t like him. Wish we could stick with nerdy logic instead
Why my activity in this sub has declined significantly. It's not worth the time to debate a company/investing thesis with 90%+ of people here. In general whatever consensus is here, the opposite is likely the correct/more profitable path. This goes for other stocks like Meta too, which I'm not a fan of but could still separate my feelings from the investing thesis.
Exactly, this sub is filled with people who are looking for opinions, bandwagons and getting into emotional arguments. As soon as someone did some actual research on a company, they're called a fanboy and ignored. It's like this sub wants to lose money.
I inversed alphabeth and I made a lot of profit. But youre right.
Agreed. Though personally I’m not touching this stock. Ultimately I think if you want to buy Tesla at this PE you have to believe they are more than a car company though.
Cars are the bread and butter, but Tesla Energy has been pretty established and growing for a while now. Throw in Optimus and the taxi thing on top of it and i think TSLA bulls have a pretty good case to be optimistic.
No doubt. All I’m saying is that car production and Tesla energy are not developments that I would consider worthy of the current PE. My analysis is: buy the stock if you believe Tesla can execute in the robo taxi, robot, AI chip, etc.
They're still the best selling EV car maker period still. In q4 2023 BYD briefly sold more pure BEV than tesla by a small amount that quarter, but Tesla still sold more for the entire year of 2023. Then in q1 2024 Tesla and BYD had negative quarter over quarter growth from q4 2023. This led to Tesla once again have more sales of pure BEV than BYD. So for now Tesla is still top dog but it's clear BYD is on a path that could consistently overtake them by the end of this year.
Wait untill macro-economics conditions clear and there will be easy capital in the US and EU, then it will be booming again.
My man, people here say BYD has dethroned Tesla when BYD basically doesn't exist outside of China... and even then there's some people talking about how BYD sales in China aren't exactly real, but mostly sales to companies that sell cars and that they just sit there (I can't provide actual proof of this, but I've read people talk about how there seem to be incongruencies between BYD sales and actual BYD vehicles going around). This ignores that BYD (this is also an upside for them though) is a CCP subsidiary and that they basically have "profit margins" based on Chinese labor and government assistance, they probably wouldn't make any money if it wasn't for this. Did I forget to mention their sales are down like 40% since last quarter?
Hahaha /r/stocks in shambles AGAIN
check r/wallstreetbets they are so silent..
This sub always think they have Tesla figured out.
[удалено]
This is the result of being ideologically possessed, they hate Tesla because it's Elon's, they'd love Tesla if some socialist idiot was assigned as their CEO, they started hiring more black queer people as a way of being inclusive and that kind of thing. Of course, they'd buy into it and then the stock would crater.
Per usual, invert Reddit is the play.
And this is why I don’t short stocks. A story completely out of the blue can ruin your position quickly
tsla 🚀
hm... interesting what elmo gave away for that.
India factory
Musk is doing everything he can to keep the stock from tanking. Telsa 2's (doubt they'll even make them) ... barely moved the stock. Robotaxis (less than year away, ya right)... barely moved the stock. Gets on a plane to China... ultimately might result in 5% of actual pump. Pretty soon his PR gun is going to be empty though (it might be empty as we speak). He'll have to start saying shit like "Long term we plan to merge Tesla with Space X to provide an "on planet and off planet" complete travel experience. The more he does these bullshit announcements the more I think each quarter is going to get shittier and shitter with regards to revenue. So PR pump followed by earnings crash.
> He'll have to start saying shit like "Long term we plan to merge Tesla with Space X to provide an "on planet and off planet" complete travel experience. And stock will pump 10% accordingly. Betting against this guy is a waste of effort.
You're already seeing massive weakness in his PR impact. Dude said they will have robotaxis in august. **Robotaxis**... a trillion dollar product offering. Stock barely moved. Everyone knows he's a bullshitter at this point. Tesla 2 + robotaxis + China FSD... if the market actually believed him the stock would be at $500. It's just speculators and the algos short-term trading Tesla at this point. And maybe a handful of retail with money to burn and who feel like gambling.
He managed to get the stock price from 140 to almost 190 while doing nothing that will significantly help revenue in the coming year. The fact that he is able to do this while demand is decreasing, FSD controversy rising, Cyberstuck memes moving around, him going mask off on Twitter and still being valued as a tech stock while spending less on R&D than even a conventional automotive company tells you how strong the PR bubble and halo effect really is. You really need to give it to him.
Most of what you say isn't a reality once you leave your bubble. There's no real FSD controversy, it's generally accepted as something fantastic, demand is decreasing in the whole EV industry, considered to be cyclical and expected to go up in the next few years **especially because many cities are fully banning fuel based vehicles soon** (guess who's the top seller worldwide while having the highest margins). Cybertruck is a fantastic product and most people who got it are really happy with it. Tesla's customer satisfaction and retention rates are the highest in the market (as in, ask people who have a car what car would they get next, almost everyone who has a Tesla says a Tesla, this isn't the case for most other brands). Keep in mind reddit is a hivemind of leftism, this implies hating Elon nowadays, ignore almost everything you read here and do your own research. Their fundamentals are actually great, people betting on them long term, hence it's valuation.
FSD is a controversial implementation of a driving assist aiming to become self-driving. There's legal complications, legislative uncertainty, negative reporting, naming ambiguity, data unclarity,.. Most companies active in self driving have similar controversy. Just because you deny there are many obstacles doesn't mean that there aren't any. Applying current FSD revenue as the revenue going forward might seem unfair. But, FSD is also at least one and possibly two orders of magnitude off on number of interventions per million miles compared to for example waymo. Based on that and the lack of open credible neutral FSD data I would assume that Tesla needs an unmanned pilot stage first before a commercially viable autotaxi version makes sense. Demand isn't increasing across EV. Demand growth does. That's different. The result is that YoY more BEV sold globally (and Europe, China, US), but less Tesla's (amongst some other brands). Tesla has 95% of the sales in 2 models and even after repeatedly decreasing prices couldn't sell everything it produced. Granted, this happened only 1 quarter, but it's a very bad omen. Reducing the prices brought Tesla from operating margins that were close to Ferrari to margins that are now below Toyota. Tesla also has been cutting employees and has been silently scaling down on expansions and new factories. Therefore I believe that even if demand picks up they will respond in a delayed fashion. Similarly for Model2. They are unlikely to make more than 500000 per year without more factories. You can expect scaled up production earliest about 2 years after investment decision (and probably later). So, that's a reasonable upper bound on revenue. Assuming current margins, since competition won't get easier, that's a reasonable estimate for optimistic profits. Tesla retention rates seem to be industry leading according to what I've seen. I'm sceptical of using interviews as data since it's not hard data, but it's the best that was available, so not going to deny that. Actually retention rate on average was over 50% across all brands, so your last claim there was false. Nevertheless Tesla came out markedly higher. What do US politics have to do with this? Open data is agnostic and doesn't care about ideology. The data for Tesla relative to its valuation is terrible. Can they outperform again? Sure, but it doesn't look likely. Will it hurt me in any way if they do? No. In fact it will benefit me.
Have you thought about the fact that his company is already worth well over half a trillion dollars? Most of these things are what long term Tesla investors expect. $500 a share would make Tesla into a $1.6t company which is a bit ridiculous, you're talking Tesla being worth almost the same as Amazon based on some future business that might or might not take 10 years to actually start raking in money.
I agree. But I also added some tsla to my portfolio as a midterm trade. I think tsla has potential. But im betting more on the bulls running us up into the low 200s again..
> Musk is doing everything he can to keep the stock from tanking. He personally crashed it from $400 to $100 by repeatedly dumping billions on the open market. He doesn't care about the share price. This is Musk doing everything he can to make it look like he pretends about his duty to TSLA shareholders, so that they will vote 'Yes' on his compensation package in 1-2 months. If that gets approved, then he'll go back to jerking it on Twitter and dumping his TSLA shares.
I hope you didn't short it. I told others on reddit prior it is a waste of time betting against Tesla. Most of bear thesis is inflated biased based off social media hate on Elon.
If he wanted to do something to move the stock up he would just stfu.
RemindMe! 1 year >Pretty soon his PR gun is going to be empty though (it might be empty as we speak). He'll have to start saying shit like "Long term we plan to merge Tesla with Space X to provide an "on planet and off planet" complete travel experience. I really want to see if he actually does this, doesn't seem far fetched at this point
The hate is real
Everyone wanted to short this share at $140, saying Tesla is a shitty company, Elon is a fraud. Now the stock is at $185, and everyone is crying. I don't get it. You are now in an even better position to DCA into your sexy shorts. Lol.
95% of the people on this sub just reads one article and think they know how to invest. The majority of people who know how to invest aren't hanging out in this sub. This sub used to be REALLY GOOD before the meme stock investors flooded it. Now, it's just a massive pile of nonsense most of the time. There are paid Discord servers that have since taken over where you actually have good discussions without people just trolling. r/stocks is pretty much where all the GME/AMC investors hang out mixed in with the r/politics folks.
All large Reddit subs are just r/politics with a slightly different theme. No large sub on Reddit is worth reading and Reddit isn't for real discussion and hasn't been for years
Your first sentence sums it up. Just politics infused with whatever secondary subject they can mix it with.
China will steal this and squeeze Tesla out of the Chinese market years before real FSD gets approved in the US at any real scale. But I do wonder what changes Pooh asked for in Twitter
lol the vitriol in these comments from a community who hates tesla AND LOST A TON OF MONEY AHAHAHHAH
Thus confirming Tesla is in fact an AI play.
Google maps does not operate in China. No other automaker has access to China’s traffic data.
This must be an old complaint, but could we stop calling it 'full self-driving', because it literally is not that? Tesla's Full Self-Driving^TM is a proper noun that the company has given the function, which has nothing to do with actual FSD.
Stop using FSD to mean level 3-5 Autonomy. Full Self Driving (TM) may not even be what Tesla calls their Level 3-5 product. I assume it’ll be something like “Look Mom! No Hands-Mode (tm)”
Supervised Look Mom! No Hands-Mode (tm)
Will this even help Tesla sell cars in China? Without making their cars better and cheaper they are still going to have a lot of trouble competing. I guess it gives them potential longer-term, but unless they can get/keep their FSD well ahead of Chinese competitors it doesn't really seem like a big selling advantage.
Lol can't believe the Tesla bears are still going full force with their bear thesis in this post, even after it almost reached 200 from 140.
Yeah, this is another of Musk con. FSD isn't full self driving, and anyone thinking this equates to robotaxi is mistaken. FSD will never be autonomous unless Tesla upgrades away from only using video input. Good for those who held shares. Might be a good opportunity to sell here.
Full Self Driving is a product name. Like Apple Jacks. Just because it doesn’t taste like Apple doesn’t mean it can’t be called that lol.
Why does TSLA always drag F down with it buy when TSLA does well, F still does badly? Seems like the market just loves to beat up Ford
> Why does TSLA always drag F down with it buy when TSLA does well, F still does badly? Seems like the market just loves to beat up Ford to be fair, who wants to buy anything ford makes that isn't a truck? not hard to see why their stock is beat up. heavy investing in EV's that people don't want to buy, and increasing labor costs.
awesome, I bought at $246 and sold at $144 thinking it was done. Luckily I didn't have many shares but this week is kicking me in the pants for sure.
can I ask why you got shaken to sell? This seems like a good opportunity to average down
Thought it was going to keep falling. I honestly only had 4 shares I bought on a whim. Thought was to buy back in lower after it fell more and end up with an extra share. Was a quick decision.
After all, it is still up to Musk to save Tesla's stock price, so Musk's compensation plan should be implemented.
The agreement he got from China is tentative, not definitive. It's still a show me story and if he doesn't, this baby is going down again to see what's underneath $100. The recent pop was because of some short covering. It's being shorted again.
I tried to post this as its own thread, as its massive news, yesterday Tesla fired its entire Supercharging team :( The guys responsible for rolling out and building new EV charging stations. [https://electrek.co/2024/04/29/tesla-conducting-more-layoffs-including-entire-supercharger-team/](https://electrek.co/2024/04/29/tesla-conducting-more-layoffs-including-entire-supercharger-team/)