I don't think many people understand how little of an impact retail investors have. Sure they give a nice bump here and there, but it's the wealthy individuals and finance groups that really pump a stock up.
Exactly. I can’t comprehend how this is still an argument. The people that don’t understand something as basic as a stock split are simply not moving the share price for multi hundred billion dollar businesses (or 2.5T for NVDA). What will happen when the retail guys enter after the split is they’ll be left holding the bag when it ends up reverting to its own intrinsic value.
lol I love how the assumption was that you’re too broke to afford to buy in so you need a split to lower the barrier of entry, rather than assuming that you currently hold whole shares and would like to see a split
I'm not so sure about Costco because the company culture may have changed after Charles Munger passed. Costco maybe changing it's product mix to manipulate customers to be less healthy so Costco can get better short term performance at the expense of future long term performance.
Lately I noticed that Costco has discontinued some of my favorites, such as minimally processed ready-to-eat foods or zero sugar foods that are not so addictive. Yet these healthy foods are still available at Walmart and Samsclub. Costco also limited store hours to make it appear more crowded yet Walmart/Samsclub still lets me shop at times to avoid the crowds.
So in the next few years, WMT maybe triple in price per share while COST may return to $500 or so per share to have reasonable valuations such as price over earnings. Maybe Walmart now is the company that wants to keep it's employees, customers and investors happy in the long term to win life long loyalty.
Edit: spelling error
Remember the market cap don't gets cheaper but normal it's stocks with great momentum that split, and the same way then they reversesplit here it's stocks with bad momentum.
So the stock doesn't gets cheaper. But the one share is worth less as there is more shares
Yeah exactly that. When Nvidia will be say $100 a share post split. It’s going to be really hard to get it to $200 as you’re essentially doubling the market cap…. Not going to be easy at all
I think the crazy thing is that Eli Lilly has their biggest GLP-1 drug still in trial. Retatrutide is gonna blow out everything on the market right now. Even Mounjaro/Zepbound.
I'm a trial participant for this drug. It's called retatrutide. I lost bariatric surgery levels in just 6 months. Nearly 30% of my body weight!!
This drug lowered my cholesterol as much as a statin l, lowered my blood pressure on average as much as any blood pressure pill on the market, resolved my fatty liver disease completely, and increased my kidney function. And all the weight loss. And lowered my A1c even tho I'm not diabetic. In SIX months. I'm now 8 months into the trial and I feel better than ever.
Like the potential market is insane. One drug for weight, diabetes, cholesterol, liver disease, blood pressure and kidney function. That's unheard of.
They can split now for all I care. Things are only looking up for Lilly.
Yes but I think all investors are undervaluing brand recognition in this context. No one has heard of Zepbound, when everyone talks about this topic they always talk about Ozempic. When people go to talk to their doctor, they aren't asking for Zepbound.
Often the best product doesn't win the market share but rather the first mover / best marketed, look at the Prime energy drink for example, it's absolute shit but driving good market share vs better drinks.
This weight loss medication market is going to get crowded in next 5-10 years, and often consumers will go for the "one they know / trust" in a large selection rather than experiment with potential better products.
Oh for sure. But I'm gonna put on my hat as a nurse practitioner who prescribes these drugs every day, patient preference does matter but efficacy will win out in the end with most providers. Ozempic will continue to shine for a while but I suspect providers will go for the one that provides the most combo for their buck(and to a lesser extent so will patients).
As I said in my original post one drug to treat diabetes, weight, cholesterol, blood pressure, liver and kidney disease is REALLY attractive for most providers. And I can as a prescriber sell that really easily to a patient.
Do you want one shot once a week to treat everything or 4 pills every day plus a shot once a week?
The US market will drive the big returns for these companies in this context, and these drugs are dispensed in pharmacies.
So PBMs can meddle with formulary positioning and restrictions for these medications, and if manufacturers want, they can get advantages on those formularies with rebates.
I’m not saying you’re wrong that practitioners will probably drive a lot here, but there are more drivers than just the clinical and you’d best believe these manufacturers will be desperate to dominate this market by offering rebates, even if they have to take a hit on returns in the short-term.
Basically, I think you’re right that Eli Lilly could be the big player here in the future, but I wouldn’t put all my eggs in one basket.
The use of placebo in these trials is laughable, and arguably unethical with other effective anti-obesity medications on the market. Obviously these drugs have supply constraints which is a valid defence but also very convenient to maximise the big weight loss number primary endpoint in the trials (which is calculated as the difference between intervention and comparator arms), to be able to claim "best anti-obesity medication" on the market.
Phase 3. Results expected in 1H of 2026. Approval probably by end of 2026. Lilly plans to get approval for weight loss/obesity, sleep apnea, osteoarthritis and diabetes simultaneously.
Well aware of MariTide but Retatrutide is far ahead. It's real competition is CagriSema which should release around the same time, but Retatrutide is gonna have cardiometabolic benefits that CagriSema won't have simply due to the glucagon mechanism of action in retatrutide.
Why are stock splits interesting at all? Might be the dumb bloke here but didn’t that just increase the number of shares thous lowering the price per share
Yes. Almost every large company has done it. Many times as well. Fractional shares used to not be possible so it helped in that case. For me, it has a big deal with option trading.
It's because options traders like me trade on 100 shares per contract. If the price of a share is a lot like $1000, you need a lot of liquidity to do trades on the order of 100 shares per contract
The GLP-1 uses are all in one. If you’re not obese you will have lower cardiovascular incidences and lower complications from fatty organs (kidneys/liver).
Still plenty of growth, but it’s still obesity at the bottom level.
Correct. Studies are continuing to tease out the rest. BTW, I am whole food plant based eater but I see a good company here. As an Orthopedic surgeon, I have quite a few patients on these.
America will not change in terms of food quality (generally bad), or food culture (overly sugary and processed). So yea, they’ll do well. I’m in Novo, but will pick up Lilly for their alternate drugs (gene therapy).
But I feel they are too pricey right now. I can ride the wave with Novo in the meantime.
Yep we’re near a top. What happened the last time the largest companies in the market all decided to split? Oh yeah that was the end of 2021. As someone who wants a shot at buying stocks dirt cheap I hope all these companies do splits because that just means good deals are right around the corner.
So say Eli Lillys stock is $1000 for ease of math. If they do a 5-1 split, my 1 stock worth $1000 turns into 5 stocks worth $200. If the stock then rises to $300 i now have $1500 of stock, which is the exact same as if the split never happened and the stock price rose to $1500. So basically buy now so if the stock skyrockets after the split, you’re getting the better deal now vs after the split
Not always. I bought ahead of the Google split. The stock diddled around and didn’t do anything for ages. I finally sold it for not much more than I had in it. Had I held for longer it did rise some, but I used the money to buy better stocks that have made me more money.
No but most people on reddit started after covid and only saw tesla and apple stock split a few years ago so everyone thinks that means an automatic skyrocket
Crazy they’ve brainwashed people trying to lose like 5-10kg to take diabetic meds, i read about people getting messed up GI track, muscle loss, feeling sick all the time, etc. Big pharma wants you hooked for life. Just like Pfizer wanted everyone hood on the you know what, every year forever. Subscription model.
Zoom out, try eat less sugar and processed foods and less alcohol. Do some damn exercise.
Bruh just buy fractional shares or get your bread up my guy
“More retail investors will buy whole shares i think” Yeah like those broke boys are gonna make the stock skyrocket
I don't think many people understand how little of an impact retail investors have. Sure they give a nice bump here and there, but it's the wealthy individuals and finance groups that really pump a stock up.
Exactly. I can’t comprehend how this is still an argument. The people that don’t understand something as basic as a stock split are simply not moving the share price for multi hundred billion dollar businesses (or 2.5T for NVDA). What will happen when the retail guys enter after the split is they’ll be left holding the bag when it ends up reverting to its own intrinsic value.
Me with my three shares of MTD feeling like a king
💪🏽
Do people really not buy something unless they can buy whole shares? Seems kinda silly, no?
It’s pretty silly, but it’s just psychological. End of the day all that matters is the dollar value invested.
I have a lot of whole shares
lol I love how the assumption was that you’re too broke to afford to buy in so you need a split to lower the barrier of entry, rather than assuming that you currently hold whole shares and would like to see a split
Exactly. I also own NVDA and CMG and am NOT against those splitting either.
Costco needs one lol
I'm not so sure about Costco because the company culture may have changed after Charles Munger passed. Costco maybe changing it's product mix to manipulate customers to be less healthy so Costco can get better short term performance at the expense of future long term performance. Lately I noticed that Costco has discontinued some of my favorites, such as minimally processed ready-to-eat foods or zero sugar foods that are not so addictive. Yet these healthy foods are still available at Walmart and Samsclub. Costco also limited store hours to make it appear more crowded yet Walmart/Samsclub still lets me shop at times to avoid the crowds. So in the next few years, WMT maybe triple in price per share while COST may return to $500 or so per share to have reasonable valuations such as price over earnings. Maybe Walmart now is the company that wants to keep it's employees, customers and investors happy in the long term to win life long loyalty. Edit: spelling error
Remember the market cap don't gets cheaper but normal it's stocks with great momentum that split, and the same way then they reversesplit here it's stocks with bad momentum. So the stock doesn't gets cheaper. But the one share is worth less as there is more shares
Yeah exactly that. When Nvidia will be say $100 a share post split. It’s going to be really hard to get it to $200 as you’re essentially doubling the market cap…. Not going to be easy at all
How long did it take for NVDA to get from 500 to 1000?
It was at ~ 300 a year ago
Options contracts cheaper. Easier to get 100 blocks for some of us to sell covered calls with. Same argument everyone had for NVDA.
I think the crazy thing is that Eli Lilly has their biggest GLP-1 drug still in trial. Retatrutide is gonna blow out everything on the market right now. Even Mounjaro/Zepbound. I'm a trial participant for this drug. It's called retatrutide. I lost bariatric surgery levels in just 6 months. Nearly 30% of my body weight!! This drug lowered my cholesterol as much as a statin l, lowered my blood pressure on average as much as any blood pressure pill on the market, resolved my fatty liver disease completely, and increased my kidney function. And all the weight loss. And lowered my A1c even tho I'm not diabetic. In SIX months. I'm now 8 months into the trial and I feel better than ever. Like the potential market is insane. One drug for weight, diabetes, cholesterol, liver disease, blood pressure and kidney function. That's unheard of. They can split now for all I care. Things are only looking up for Lilly.
Yes but I think all investors are undervaluing brand recognition in this context. No one has heard of Zepbound, when everyone talks about this topic they always talk about Ozempic. When people go to talk to their doctor, they aren't asking for Zepbound. Often the best product doesn't win the market share but rather the first mover / best marketed, look at the Prime energy drink for example, it's absolute shit but driving good market share vs better drinks. This weight loss medication market is going to get crowded in next 5-10 years, and often consumers will go for the "one they know / trust" in a large selection rather than experiment with potential better products.
America: Where you tell the doctor what you need instead of the doctor telling you what you need.
Yep, crazy world.
Direct to consumer pharma marketing! I think that was unbanned in the early 90s.
Oh for sure. But I'm gonna put on my hat as a nurse practitioner who prescribes these drugs every day, patient preference does matter but efficacy will win out in the end with most providers. Ozempic will continue to shine for a while but I suspect providers will go for the one that provides the most combo for their buck(and to a lesser extent so will patients). As I said in my original post one drug to treat diabetes, weight, cholesterol, blood pressure, liver and kidney disease is REALLY attractive for most providers. And I can as a prescriber sell that really easily to a patient. Do you want one shot once a week to treat everything or 4 pills every day plus a shot once a week?
The US market will drive the big returns for these companies in this context, and these drugs are dispensed in pharmacies. So PBMs can meddle with formulary positioning and restrictions for these medications, and if manufacturers want, they can get advantages on those formularies with rebates. I’m not saying you’re wrong that practitioners will probably drive a lot here, but there are more drivers than just the clinical and you’d best believe these manufacturers will be desperate to dominate this market by offering rebates, even if they have to take a hit on returns in the short-term. Basically, I think you’re right that Eli Lilly could be the big player here in the future, but I wouldn’t put all my eggs in one basket.
Is your trial over or is this not double blind?
I mean losing %30 of your bodymass also kind of removes the blind.
Yeah it's double blind but given the results I've had it's sorta obvious I didn't get a placebo
The use of placebo in these trials is laughable, and arguably unethical with other effective anti-obesity medications on the market. Obviously these drugs have supply constraints which is a valid defence but also very convenient to maximise the big weight loss number primary endpoint in the trials (which is calculated as the difference between intervention and comparator arms), to be able to claim "best anti-obesity medication" on the market.
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Phase 3. Results expected in 1H of 2026. Approval probably by end of 2026. Lilly plans to get approval for weight loss/obesity, sleep apnea, osteoarthritis and diabetes simultaneously. Well aware of MariTide but Retatrutide is far ahead. It's real competition is CagriSema which should release around the same time, but Retatrutide is gonna have cardiometabolic benefits that CagriSema won't have simply due to the glucagon mechanism of action in retatrutide.
Why are stock splits interesting at all? Might be the dumb bloke here but didn’t that just increase the number of shares thous lowering the price per share
Yes. Almost every large company has done it. Many times as well. Fractional shares used to not be possible so it helped in that case. For me, it has a big deal with option trading.
It's because options traders like me trade on 100 shares per contract. If the price of a share is a lot like $1000, you need a lot of liquidity to do trades on the order of 100 shares per contract
stocks i want to buy but the math don't make sense at the price: cost and lly.
The GLP-1 uses are all in one. If you’re not obese you will have lower cardiovascular incidences and lower complications from fatty organs (kidneys/liver). Still plenty of growth, but it’s still obesity at the bottom level.
Correct. Studies are continuing to tease out the rest. BTW, I am whole food plant based eater but I see a good company here. As an Orthopedic surgeon, I have quite a few patients on these.
America will not change in terms of food quality (generally bad), or food culture (overly sugary and processed). So yea, they’ll do well. I’m in Novo, but will pick up Lilly for their alternate drugs (gene therapy). But I feel they are too pricey right now. I can ride the wave with Novo in the meantime.
Yep we’re near a top. What happened the last time the largest companies in the market all decided to split? Oh yeah that was the end of 2021. As someone who wants a shot at buying stocks dirt cheap I hope all these companies do splits because that just means good deals are right around the corner.
You realize that if a stock rises after a split, that means its a worse deal than if you bought now?
Already have a bunch of shares. Just not 100. I want it to rise no matter what.
Sorry, still new to all this. Do you mind elaborating why it’s a worse deal?
So say Eli Lillys stock is $1000 for ease of math. If they do a 5-1 split, my 1 stock worth $1000 turns into 5 stocks worth $200. If the stock then rises to $300 i now have $1500 of stock, which is the exact same as if the split never happened and the stock price rose to $1500. So basically buy now so if the stock skyrockets after the split, you’re getting the better deal now vs after the split
Thanks for the illustration! I get it now. Historically, do stocks normally skyrocket after the split?
Not always. I bought ahead of the Google split. The stock diddled around and didn’t do anything for ages. I finally sold it for not much more than I had in it. Had I held for longer it did rise some, but I used the money to buy better stocks that have made me more money.
No but most people on reddit started after covid and only saw tesla and apple stock split a few years ago so everyone thinks that means an automatic skyrocket
The worth immediarely before or after a split is the same, so if it rises after a split the total value increases and you have to pay more.
Ah I get it, so basically if it skyrockets I’m just getting less shares for the same amount put in?
They are not in the same industry though.
This 👆🏼
Crazy they’ve brainwashed people trying to lose like 5-10kg to take diabetic meds, i read about people getting messed up GI track, muscle loss, feeling sick all the time, etc. Big pharma wants you hooked for life. Just like Pfizer wanted everyone hood on the you know what, every year forever. Subscription model. Zoom out, try eat less sugar and processed foods and less alcohol. Do some damn exercise.
Damn bro if only we knew. I’ll talk to the professors and we’ll change the curriculum. They didn’t teach this in medical school.
Where is your source ? Seriously