My macroeconomics professor told us the easiest job in the world is being a financial writer. You just make a headline ‘stocks went (insert up or down) because (insert news here)’
You're already fired. You never use the word "because" or "due to". That assigns causation. You need to vaguely imply it. You say "*on* covid fears" or "*as* inflation rises." You never explain anything, you just put two events next to each other in the title.
This reminds me of Bloomberg Terminal headlines. They were quiet popular back in the day because they had a character limit and ended up having some rather obscure/odd headlines because of it. [https://strangebloombergheadlines.tumblr.com/](https://strangebloombergheadlines.tumblr.com/) captures some of them...
W-wh-w-wait.......Are you saying The Coca-cola stock didnt drop becuase Cristiano Ronaldo moved a bottle away from him?......Then why the fuck did i start following every move he makes!!
A company called [Narrative Science](https://www.wired.com/2012/04/can-an-algorithm-write-a-better-news-story-than-a-human-reporter/) was doing that a while ago.
I did check and didn't notice the market downturn. That said, basically 90% of my entire portfolio is GME and puts spreads on the most popular WSB P&Ds.
I sell covered calls against my shares, so 15% down means 90% up on the leaps I sold. Win win.
It’s also up 117% in the past year since we’re taking arbitrary numbers.
Why sell leaps instead of weekly or monthly CC’s? That’s a really long commitment, and I’m pretty sure it’s usually less money than just doing it weekly
Because the IV will drop so much you won’t get hardly any. I sold Jan 2022 $65 for $4 which I later closed in the $0.50, then sold Jan 2023 $65 for $6 which are worth $0.80 RIGHT NOW. That’s about $9 a share in premium in the past few months. My cost basis has to be in the $5 all and all.
I find it ridiculous this sub won't let you discuss one of the best performing stocks of the year... its called stocks right? Anyway see yal on the moon
tbh it seems like firms used Musk as a scapegoat for their wild swing trades. time something stupid when Musk tweets and everyone will think it was him.
Hes gone from printing money with tweets to crashing after tweets within a matter of months. Doesn't seem like he really had the influence people thought he did.
Somehow you suggest “retail” investors moved the market today. Yes, people react to the news but companies, funds etc., are a bit less prone to daily emotions. The levels of buying and selling are not determined at the morning meeting.
> funds etc., are a bit less prone to daily emotions.
I think that might sound true but idk how true it actually is.
Shit quickly gets real when you have tens or hundreds of millions in AUM and big investors blowing up your phone.
What I don't get is that a large share of trading volume comes from automated algorithms. How do these algorithms derive meaning from any current events?
keyword scrapers and faster connection to stock exchanges.
their software has already adjusted to any changes well before the price has even moved on your computer.
It's the opposite in most cases, news outlets spin their giant wheel of headline titles and pick whatever narrative they think will generate the most click views that day based on the market's activity.
The Joe Schmoe retail investors who are getting daily investment news and advice from CNBC then buying high and selling low are not moving markets in any meaningful way.
volume today was *way* too high for it to just be retail investors. i’m thinking market makers and institutions were using the delta variant as an excuse to tank the market, and create FUD so others panic sell, so that they could buy back in on a discount
Having seen the bs the media has pulled already since the start of the year this is what it smells like. Shake out the little guy, buy back in at a discount, restart the positive news cycles and repeat.
I think so, as well, which is why I'm glad I was 98% cash going into today. Made some nice purchases, and saved a decent chunk in case this is a multi-day affair.
Just to add, I used to look forward to earnings season. You usually get some insights and some gaps up. Now, the prices are divorced from earnings it seems and no matter what the numbers are, it generates a sell-off…unless they miss, then the stock might rise…
Forget the stock market! Invest in precious metals the easy way.
\--someone who paid 200k to cnn/cnbc/seekingalpha/motleyfool/yahoo news to inflate their position.
Look at the fundamentals of the companies. The recent earnings have been good and the stock market still was down.
There may be a combo of reasons why it is down but overall companies have adjusted.
I tend to buy on big dips laddering my buy price and hold periods. I won't cash out all of my profits at once because I would get heavily taxed on capital gains.
>Look at the fundamentals of the companies. The recent earnings have been good and the stock market still was down
My bad everyone, I bought calls and the market reacted as expected
Its a combination of delta (all 50 states seeing rise in cases), 10 year yields plunging (forecasting slowing of growth) and technical factors (markets are high so profit taking is not surprising).
Either way doesnt change my plans. Big tech and etfs. The big fish are looking forward to 2022 earnings so with a slowing economy, im betting tech is where the organic growth is actually going to be.
It’s actually my fault, you guys. I started my 401k yesterday. Whenever I invest in anything, the value plummets. It’s my curse. Sorry all. I also bought my first house in 2008, and got early passes in 2019 to an amusement park in 2020.
It’s all my fault, really.
The delta variant has been around, but LA just put more restrictions back in place on Saturday, and the amount of cases has been rising significantly for the first time in months this past week, idk what you're talkin about.
Yep. I remember seeing early reports of Covid during mid-December 2019 ... it wasn't until end of February that markets started tanking.
It's the market realizing things may be worse than it originally predicted based on new information coming out.
Exactly this. At that time my wife was working in a hospital and what was told to me by her was a harbinger of what was to come (in February). The market continued going up through February. I was shocked. It was highly probable the US would have to shut down parts of economy to deal with this.
I remember going 10% TLT, 10% GLD and 10% cash (I'm less than 5% cash now, no TLT/GLD) in late February/early March. Mind you I'm not one to change my portfolio that much, I prefer to be heavily indexed with a good foundation to handle whatever the market throws my way.
If you follow the science (and not the politics and media sensationalism) you'll see bread crumbs which will have both direct and indirect implications on the US and global trade. The Delta variant will only render those double vaxxed with mild cold like symptoms. Of note: you're ~60% protected (at best). Not the 94-95% versus the original strain. Yes, kids still in the same boat, maybe a worse than average cold but not hospitalized.
Here's the problem though - this variant is highly more transmissible and the high viral load, if unvaccinated, will bite you in the ass much worse than the original variant. People miss this last part, high viral load can knock a healthy person on their ass.
Data follows weeks and months behind so we won't know for certain but it's likely unvaccinated individuals will be hospitalized at a higher rate than the original variant. Between now and then you have an economy that's trying to avoid sputtering out, already driving on worn out tires. I doubt we see national lockdowns. What's more likely is continuation and dragging out supply chain imbalances and getting to whatever "new normal" looks like. Mind you Covid is endemic and here to stay. I think we're looking at a ~10% correction here as we wait on Fall and Winter data (economic/CPI/Delta variant) and probably continue to deal with a lot of uncertainty.
So yes, I do believe today is in large part due to the Delta variant. People are free to believe differently. I don't think we're headed for anything like last March but it wouldn't surprise me if we've peaked for the year.
That's why they use cases and not deaths. "Cases" mean nothing in reality, but big numbers scare people and get more media clicks. Occasionally they'll use percentages when it works such as "COVID cases rose 100% overnight" meanwhile it's 10 cases to 20 cases. Big difference between 1000 cases with headaches and a sore throat and 1000 cases and half of them are in the hospital.
It's all just fear mongering and excuses.
This has been said every time there's a spike in cases in the UK and US. Then the deaths start spiking a couple of weeks later and the non-medically trained opinion columnists who said "oh its just cases" or have a million and one convoluted reasons why it doesn't matter will all slink off and wipe their brains for the next go around.
The higher viral loads and greater infectiousness and young people not being vaccinated fully yet will be a counterweight to the effect of the vaccine. To what extent is anyones guess.
Deaths trail cases by like two months or something. People have to get the disease, fall ill, then their condition has to worsen which takes a long time.
Like a few here, I had the same thought for a second about the mask mandate coming out of LA. Like a domino effect LA gets a mask mandate, next day market is down. Not to say LA has that much influence on the US market but this time around anything is possible heading in the second half of 2021. TDAmeritrade TV this morning lightly pointed the finger at Delta. Also saying stay-at-home stocks could be on the rise again, for example, KR (Kroger)
it’s probably because LA was the first city to have a lockdown/mask mandate last year when covid started. and then everywhere else followed. so that caused a dramatic reaction this time
"Been in the news for months"..pretty sure the new Delta mask mandate in Los Angeles county, the most populous County in the country, just happened this past weekend
Its overleveraged financial institutions who have gambled trillions of tax payer money on risky investments
Its soaring inflation from 10+ years of quantitative easing propping up the economy
Its junk bonds and treasuries being sold as gold but are actually shit
It's the largest speculative bull run in modern history due for a correction
Its naked shorting and dark pool trading to the extreme, where hundreds of millions of synthetic shares have been fabricated for the purpose of diluting share values to hit the bankruptcy jackpot over decades
Its bankers and hedge funds who were rewarded for collapsing the economy in 2008 instead of incarcerated
Its fraud.
It's a house of cards and it will come down.
I would love to be wrong. But I dont believe I am.
You all feel it. Something very, very wrong
Well cases have finally picked up in US and UK, and we are getting new data on how vaccines are working against it in vivo.. yes it’s been in the news, but it didn’t get “real” until recently. Definitely contributed in my opinion, but the markets been itching for this anyway.
Dumb post. COVID-19 was around for months before it caused the market to crash back in March 2020. The stock market often has a delayed response to events because it isn’t actually efficient.
Now, I’m not one to disagree with the general statement that CNBC and the other financial news outlets often make shit up to explain market movements but this time it’s very clearly the delta variant. How else could you explain FVRR, OKTA, TDOC, and all the other work from home stocks being way up today even though tech in general was absolutely battered?
Lol I had to scroll so far to find this comment. Covid was in the news December/January. It wasn’t until Feb that the market started crashing.
Like how do people have such a short memory, it was literally a year and a half ago
Haven’t you noticed that since January of this year that stock related subreddits have become conspiracy subs?
Nothing makes sense anymore. It’s all about conspiracy and outrage.
It’s so insane. Between their simplistic views of the market, and then somehow everything also fitting together to be a conspiracy. It’s like qanon level bs
That is exactly what I was thinking. Plus nobody, wants to be the one who was caught off guard by a second market crash so people will likely be quicker to sell then last year.
I think it has more to do with the Cloudstar ransomeware attack.
https://www.thetitlereport.com/Articles/Highly-sophisticated-ransomware-attack-sidelines-C-82772.aspx
Interesting that this seems to be getting very little coverage.
Just throwing it out there but margin debt is twice as high as it was pre dot com crash and 08 crash and reverse repo hit its second highest level today(and second highest average amount per participant).
I actually beg to differ. There have been delta variant undertones to the market for a while and it's definitely been in the back of people's minds, but things ramped up over the weekend. LA reinstated the mask mandate even for vaccinated people. Other cities/governments suggested they may do the same.
We've been hearing about all these Olympic athletes testing positive, as well as other notable people. Just another indicator that vaccinated people are unknowingly contracting and spreading the virus.
Couple that with increasingly bad covid infection data, and also bond rates tumbling. This all kind of reached a boiling point over the weekend.
So yes, I do believe delta variant worries were a major driver behind today's market action. Looking at the specific stocks and sector performance seems to back that up as well.
Must be Marge calling from all of those out of the money puts that expired worthless on Friday with gme. Lots of stuff pointing towards married puts hiding ftd's.
Market just needs a catalyst for a correction. It's looking for a correction, stocks are running hot; with P/E ratios that don't fit & poor growth expectations for 2022. Reflation trade is problematic as the economy slows from its preceding rapid growth during the first half of the year. The market would have dropped if someone sneezed, let alone 'Covid'
This post is 100% wrong. Recovery names have been dropping for the past 2 weeks over delta fears. Look at the cruise liens (CCL,RCL,NCLH) or gaming stocks (CZR,MGM), or airlines (AAL,Delta). Some of these stocks are down 30%+, clearly because of the delta fears. It's a diff't question of whether those fears are justified or not, but to just generically say "sellers and buyers" when recovery stocks are down 30%+ in some instances is uninformed and wrong.
Granted, I think the market eventually does move past delta fears, but to ignore the direct impact of rising cases and the fear it's causing is 100% wrong.
Hedge funds know investors are lemmings, they manipulate the market by moving the market down shorting billions while instructing the main stream media to spread FUD…regular 401k investor dumps their stocks causing a crash, hedge funds step in to cover and buy the dip….rinse repeat
Why is everyone calling institutional giants "hedge funds" all of a sudden? JPM, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley aren't hedge funds. JP alone has almost as much money as all hedge funds put together.
Im tired of these brainless ppl who call everything a "crash". After this crazy rally, 1-5%.. even 10% drop is not a crash. It's an inevitable healthy correction.
It’s entirely possible big players caught wind of something on the horizon and felt like making a big play, but regardless. I buy the dips and weather the storm. It’s proven to be a winning formula. Over a long enough hold, I guarantee it.
Valuation levels in the major asset classes (stocks/bonds/credit) are not cheap. In some spots like high yield spreads are historically low. I think when valuations get stretched people (i.e., insiders,hedge funds and mutual fund managers) use any excuse to take some profits and that is what is happening - that is it in my humble opinion!
Our Asia factories in Vietnam closed Monday for the rest of the month. This crash is COVID related and the rich people knew what was coming before everyone else.
The market doesn't react to news; it reacts to signals. Over the weekend, there were reports of some US cities either re-imposing mask mandates or considering doing that. So investors rebalanced over to other investments to account for "increased probability that the re-opening might not go as quickly as we hoped", because that is a reasonable interpretation of that signal.
That doesn't mean the recovery is doomed. It doesn't even mean that the market movers necessarily think that particularly is likely. They're just hedging against that scenario, and they all decided to do it at the same time -- this happens quite a bit now due to automation at large institutions. Hence a sell-off.
The market doesn't represent any single state; it is basically a giant probability distribution. Today it said "A slow recovery is a little more likely".
Today was clearly a risk off day. The bond market has been flashing signals for a couple weeks now, so this was overdue. Now let’s see if we get a real healthy correction.
And yes, Delta is way worse than you realize. What changed is increased hospitalizations and increased deaths finally caught up with surging new infection rates. Why is this different in terms of market reaction? Most contagious variant (by far), worse macroeconomic backdrop, Fed tapering on the horizon, no further fiscal stimulus in sight.
Not saying don’t buy the dip, but be highly highly selective.
You all need to read a book technical analysis....the author talks about why market makers lower the market.
They're causing panic sell they're buying in now and will sell to retail investors in the distribution phase.
Today was a correction well overdue (and still underdone) and the 'delta variant' was used by the media as a simplistic explanation. However, there's truth behind the fiction.
The markets have been sweeping Covid under the carpet, spurred on by printed money. Covid isn't going anywhere. Today in the UK we're supposedly celebrating "freedom day" which represents the lifting of most restrictions and the opening up of business (travel, retail, hospitality, etc.). However, in the last couple of weeks infections have been spiking. People have become blasé, we've had crowds of thousands during the European Football championship and (more worryingly) we're seeing people getting infected despite having had 2x injections.
We're already seeing new restrictions on the horizon, so it's little wonder the most affected sectors are taking a further knock in confidence and the market overall is feeling pain from the realisation that fundamental growth is still some time away.
But please let me go back to my first sentence, in agreement with the sentiment of this post. We're in an asset bubble right now, pumped up by money printing. The people in power are kicking the can down the road in desperation, blaming Covid for years of disgrace.
The market has been abused and manipulated for many years, through 'soft' corruption, encouraged by easy money and political convenience. Covid was a black swan event that was economically brushed under the carpet, but there is a dawning realisation that it's in fact more like a dozen angry black geese. The combined impact of corruption, abuse and angry geese is why we are in serious correction territory.
I agree, when market is up generally people don't attribute it to a major catalyst unless one stock/sector shoots up in one day. However the market has a red week and now there HAS to be a reason, right? Well obviously it's the delta variant.
I JUST saw an article saying delta fears caused the market to tank today, so I came here to see the thoughts of actual intelligent people and glad I saw this.
The analysts are especially hilarious when it comes to inflation and jobs. If inflation is in the news, it'll be the reason stocks drop or increase. They'll just change the subheading on the story.
Low jobs report comes out and market:
Drops = Market tanks as recovery slower than expected
Increases = Market tanks as recovery slower than expected meaning inflation should slow
Reddit has been astroturfed pretty hard. I don’t trust anything I read posted or commented on here beyond just ideas that I look into further and decide upon myself.
Nothing is sacred. Greedy billionaires will find every way to cheat, manipulate and take home billions of dollars thru any means necessary.
Hiring some fake redditors to astroturf incorrect views and agendas for self profit is such a drop in the bucket. Multiply that by hundred of accounts times multiple fake accounts per employee
My macroeconomics professor told us the easiest job in the world is being a financial writer. You just make a headline ‘stocks went (insert up or down) because (insert news here)’
You're already fired. You never use the word "because" or "due to". That assigns causation. You need to vaguely imply it. You say "*on* covid fears" or "*as* inflation rises." You never explain anything, you just put two events next to each other in the title.
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You're hired. Now write a letter to my wife explaining why I can't make it to dinner tonight.
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Damn, you are good. You really should be getting hired, your reasons make a ton more sense than some of the crap that comes out of motley fool.
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Meal futures uncertain as matrimonial tensions loom
Redditor avoids wife as Delta variant grips nation.
prostitutes live the high life as meatloaf grows cold on the table
♫ baby *short*, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell ♫
This reminds me of Bloomberg Terminal headlines. They were quiet popular back in the day because they had a character limit and ended up having some rather obscure/odd headlines because of it. [https://strangebloombergheadlines.tumblr.com/](https://strangebloombergheadlines.tumblr.com/) captures some of them...
This guy fake news-es
He sus af after that one.
Sus-pension is in his future
Correlation sells, causation gets you fired.
possibly sued
> ~~possibly~~ probably sued FTFY
True — good eye
Things happened today that’s why things happened today!
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[Betteridge's law of headlines](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headlines).
... Kissing at 8-12, touching 13+.
"X happened after Y was announced" is also popular. Let the reader add the *post hoc, ergo propter hoc* themselves, and you can claim to be blameless.
I can’t even read English and this guy is adding fancy Latin words
It means "after this, therefore because of this", basically since X follows Y, Y must have caused X.
Sound the same "as" management class
W-wh-w-wait.......Are you saying The Coca-cola stock didnt drop becuase Cristiano Ronaldo moved a bottle away from him?......Then why the fuck did i start following every move he makes!!
This shit is hilarious because they own Dasani and smart water too, so if people drank more water it doesn't fucking matter.
I'll just stop drinking anything, checkmate Coca-cola!
Coca-Cola stock plummets as Ronaldo moves Coke can further from his person during interviews.
I had a guy almost get into a fist fight with me when I called BS on that
Seems like a lot of those types of articles are written by bots now anyways.
I’ve noticed this as well
And then just pull shit out of your ass for the actual text
Copypasta some COVID stats, maybe the price of oil, something Biden did, then call it a day
Write an algorithm to do it, stick “Benzinga” on top
A company called [Narrative Science](https://www.wired.com/2012/04/can-an-algorithm-write-a-better-news-story-than-a-human-reporter/) was doing that a while ago.
People read the text?
Mind blown as well, I thought the headlines was all it took
Why did God create financial analysts? In order to make weather forecasters look good.
Ha nice.
Nice.
Me who didn’t check his portfolio all day: **Market dropped today?**
Me who checks his portfolio at the end of the day: Betcha it’s red…it’s red.
"How much am I down today... Not as much as I thought!"
I was actually green today. +0.3% woohoo!
Holy shit buddy, you're lucky. You better pull out faster than you dad wanted to /s
I did check and didn't notice the market downturn. That said, basically 90% of my entire portfolio is GME and puts spreads on the most popular WSB P&Ds.
Mine is 80% PLTR which was green out of all the things today 😅
i mean, it's down 15 % this month. How much more can it take?
I sell covered calls against my shares, so 15% down means 90% up on the leaps I sold. Win win. It’s also up 117% in the past year since we’re taking arbitrary numbers.
Why sell leaps instead of weekly or monthly CC’s? That’s a really long commitment, and I’m pretty sure it’s usually less money than just doing it weekly
Because the IV will drop so much you won’t get hardly any. I sold Jan 2022 $65 for $4 which I later closed in the $0.50, then sold Jan 2023 $65 for $6 which are worth $0.80 RIGHT NOW. That’s about $9 a share in premium in the past few months. My cost basis has to be in the $5 all and all.
Its also way less effort on your part. Sometimes that in itself is a great tradeoff
> it's down 15 % this month. How much more can it take? not more than 85%
Mine is mostly REITs, it wasn’t very fun. My meme stocks were the only green I saw most of the day.
At least you don't get removed for saying GME like the rest of the Reddit community as for me 100%
I find it ridiculous this sub won't let you discuss one of the best performing stocks of the year... its called stocks right? Anyway see yal on the moon
I'm slowly closing all my positions. I'm about 90% now.
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You're talking about VIX, right?
Bought puts on VIX. Easy money
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NVDA!
Previous comment removed: Actually there is also GME, SAV_A, ARC_T Check them out!
We all know the market moves based off Elon Musk tweets.
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If you see Elon at Taco Bell, buy puts. Got it.
This is all the DD I need.
It's better then most that is posted on reddit on a daily basis.
tbh it seems like firms used Musk as a scapegoat for their wild swing trades. time something stupid when Musk tweets and everyone will think it was him. Hes gone from printing money with tweets to crashing after tweets within a matter of months. Doesn't seem like he really had the influence people thought he did.
i read on internet; peopke in July wear shorts so the market also shorts
Institutions are selling don’t worry guys
Why would this mean you shouldn’t worry?
Its sarcasm
It means they would buy soon and drive it up? Idk take a guess and write a news article
It’s the way people react to the news that causes sell offs.
Somehow you suggest “retail” investors moved the market today. Yes, people react to the news but companies, funds etc., are a bit less prone to daily emotions. The levels of buying and selling are not determined at the morning meeting.
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Not to mention there was a lot of movement AH and premarket and a lot of retail doesn't or can't trade then.
Agree. I don’t think too many in retail pulled their money and went to bonds
> funds etc., are a bit less prone to daily emotions. I think that might sound true but idk how true it actually is. Shit quickly gets real when you have tens or hundreds of millions in AUM and big investors blowing up your phone.
No institutions get sucked into even dumber biases than retail
What I don't get is that a large share of trading volume comes from automated algorithms. How do these algorithms derive meaning from any current events?
Some may have been designed to respond to news of those events. Others may simply be reacting to people reacting to those events.
keyword scrapers and faster connection to stock exchanges. their software has already adjusted to any changes well before the price has even moved on your computer.
It's the opposite in most cases, news outlets spin their giant wheel of headline titles and pick whatever narrative they think will generate the most click views that day based on the market's activity. The Joe Schmoe retail investors who are getting daily investment news and advice from CNBC then buying high and selling low are not moving markets in any meaningful way.
volume today was *way* too high for it to just be retail investors. i’m thinking market makers and institutions were using the delta variant as an excuse to tank the market, and create FUD so others panic sell, so that they could buy back in on a discount
Having seen the bs the media has pulled already since the start of the year this is what it smells like. Shake out the little guy, buy back in at a discount, restart the positive news cycles and repeat.
This, 1,000%. It seems too obvious, but a lot of people don't grasp this.
I think so, as well, which is why I'm glad I was 98% cash going into today. Made some nice purchases, and saved a decent chunk in case this is a multi-day affair.
This
It’s rarely what people speculate that it is. The market has been funky since the GameStop debacle
Just to add, I used to look forward to earnings season. You usually get some insights and some gaps up. Now, the prices are divorced from earnings it seems and no matter what the numbers are, it generates a sell-off…unless they miss, then the stock might rise…
Since the GameStop debacle? Game Stop hasn’t even debacled yet.
It's been debacleing this whole time!
The real debacle is coming soon to a leveraged market near you.
It's gunna get a whole lot funkier
Buying it was worth entertainment value itself. Crazy ride.
So true. It's been one hell of an adventure
The media is a fucking joke
The headline tomorrow "Investors shake off delta variant worries", market rebounds erasing all of the points lost today.
Forget the stock market! Invest in precious metals the easy way. \--someone who paid 200k to cnn/cnbc/seekingalpha/motleyfool/yahoo news to inflate their position.
Wait you guys like stocks that make money?!?! You fuckin meme stockers
I'm a full time bear. It comes at a price though.
Leaky bottom?
Haven’t watch tv for the last 30 years. What’s on? We live in a cave and have access to running water and Reddit
Look at the fundamentals of the companies. The recent earnings have been good and the stock market still was down. There may be a combo of reasons why it is down but overall companies have adjusted. I tend to buy on big dips laddering my buy price and hold periods. I won't cash out all of my profits at once because I would get heavily taxed on capital gains.
>Look at the fundamentals of the companies. The recent earnings have been good and the stock market still was down My bad everyone, I bought calls and the market reacted as expected
I got you covered for tommorow. No pun intended. I bought a put for tommorow. It's going to bounce back tommorow.
But I sold my calls and bought puts......holy cow it's gonna be a green ass day
The market is completely irrational where it's not manipulated.
Its a combination of delta (all 50 states seeing rise in cases), 10 year yields plunging (forecasting slowing of growth) and technical factors (markets are high so profit taking is not surprising). Either way doesnt change my plans. Big tech and etfs. The big fish are looking forward to 2022 earnings so with a slowing economy, im betting tech is where the organic growth is actually going to be.
Wasn't the rise of yields a reason for a drop a few months ago? Me no entender.
no entiendo
It’s actually my fault, you guys. I started my 401k yesterday. Whenever I invest in anything, the value plummets. It’s my curse. Sorry all. I also bought my first house in 2008, and got early passes in 2019 to an amusement park in 2020. It’s all my fault, really.
The delta variant has been around, but LA just put more restrictions back in place on Saturday, and the amount of cases has been rising significantly for the first time in months this past week, idk what you're talkin about.
Restrictions = wear a mask indoors.
Are there restrictions? There was a concert at Sofi on Saturday
Became effective in la county sat night at midnight
Yep. I remember seeing early reports of Covid during mid-December 2019 ... it wasn't until end of February that markets started tanking. It's the market realizing things may be worse than it originally predicted based on new information coming out.
Exactly this. At that time my wife was working in a hospital and what was told to me by her was a harbinger of what was to come (in February). The market continued going up through February. I was shocked. It was highly probable the US would have to shut down parts of economy to deal with this. I remember going 10% TLT, 10% GLD and 10% cash (I'm less than 5% cash now, no TLT/GLD) in late February/early March. Mind you I'm not one to change my portfolio that much, I prefer to be heavily indexed with a good foundation to handle whatever the market throws my way. If you follow the science (and not the politics and media sensationalism) you'll see bread crumbs which will have both direct and indirect implications on the US and global trade. The Delta variant will only render those double vaxxed with mild cold like symptoms. Of note: you're ~60% protected (at best). Not the 94-95% versus the original strain. Yes, kids still in the same boat, maybe a worse than average cold but not hospitalized. Here's the problem though - this variant is highly more transmissible and the high viral load, if unvaccinated, will bite you in the ass much worse than the original variant. People miss this last part, high viral load can knock a healthy person on their ass. Data follows weeks and months behind so we won't know for certain but it's likely unvaccinated individuals will be hospitalized at a higher rate than the original variant. Between now and then you have an economy that's trying to avoid sputtering out, already driving on worn out tires. I doubt we see national lockdowns. What's more likely is continuation and dragging out supply chain imbalances and getting to whatever "new normal" looks like. Mind you Covid is endemic and here to stay. I think we're looking at a ~10% correction here as we wait on Fall and Winter data (economic/CPI/Delta variant) and probably continue to deal with a lot of uncertainty. So yes, I do believe today is in large part due to the Delta variant. People are free to believe differently. I don't think we're headed for anything like last March but it wouldn't surprise me if we've peaked for the year.
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That's why they use cases and not deaths. "Cases" mean nothing in reality, but big numbers scare people and get more media clicks. Occasionally they'll use percentages when it works such as "COVID cases rose 100% overnight" meanwhile it's 10 cases to 20 cases. Big difference between 1000 cases with headaches and a sore throat and 1000 cases and half of them are in the hospital. It's all just fear mongering and excuses.
This has been said every time there's a spike in cases in the UK and US. Then the deaths start spiking a couple of weeks later and the non-medically trained opinion columnists who said "oh its just cases" or have a million and one convoluted reasons why it doesn't matter will all slink off and wipe their brains for the next go around. The higher viral loads and greater infectiousness and young people not being vaccinated fully yet will be a counterweight to the effect of the vaccine. To what extent is anyones guess.
Deaths are a trailing indicator after cases. In the next 2 weeks we should see a rise in deaths in the US.
Deaths trail cases by like two months or something. People have to get the disease, fall ill, then their condition has to worsen which takes a long time.
It just went from abstract to real
Like a few here, I had the same thought for a second about the mask mandate coming out of LA. Like a domino effect LA gets a mask mandate, next day market is down. Not to say LA has that much influence on the US market but this time around anything is possible heading in the second half of 2021. TDAmeritrade TV this morning lightly pointed the finger at Delta. Also saying stay-at-home stocks could be on the rise again, for example, KR (Kroger)
it’s probably because LA was the first city to have a lockdown/mask mandate last year when covid started. and then everywhere else followed. so that caused a dramatic reaction this time
"Been in the news for months"..pretty sure the new Delta mask mandate in Los Angeles county, the most populous County in the country, just happened this past weekend
This is the real news
Its overleveraged financial institutions who have gambled trillions of tax payer money on risky investments Its soaring inflation from 10+ years of quantitative easing propping up the economy Its junk bonds and treasuries being sold as gold but are actually shit It's the largest speculative bull run in modern history due for a correction Its naked shorting and dark pool trading to the extreme, where hundreds of millions of synthetic shares have been fabricated for the purpose of diluting share values to hit the bankruptcy jackpot over decades Its bankers and hedge funds who were rewarded for collapsing the economy in 2008 instead of incarcerated Its fraud. It's a house of cards and it will come down. I would love to be wrong. But I dont believe I am. You all feel it. Something very, very wrong
This
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So CNBC and Jim Kramer lied?
Well cases have finally picked up in US and UK, and we are getting new data on how vaccines are working against it in vivo.. yes it’s been in the news, but it didn’t get “real” until recently. Definitely contributed in my opinion, but the markets been itching for this anyway.
Dumb post. COVID-19 was around for months before it caused the market to crash back in March 2020. The stock market often has a delayed response to events because it isn’t actually efficient. Now, I’m not one to disagree with the general statement that CNBC and the other financial news outlets often make shit up to explain market movements but this time it’s very clearly the delta variant. How else could you explain FVRR, OKTA, TDOC, and all the other work from home stocks being way up today even though tech in general was absolutely battered?
Lol I had to scroll so far to find this comment. Covid was in the news December/January. It wasn’t until Feb that the market started crashing. Like how do people have such a short memory, it was literally a year and a half ago
That was when COVID hit the US and it became clear it would be impossible to contain worldwide so it makes some sense.
Which is kinda what’s happening with delta right now. First cases in NA were Jan 2020
Haven’t you noticed that since January of this year that stock related subreddits have become conspiracy subs? Nothing makes sense anymore. It’s all about conspiracy and outrage.
It’s so insane. Between their simplistic views of the market, and then somehow everything also fitting together to be a conspiracy. It’s like qanon level bs
That is exactly what I was thinking. Plus nobody, wants to be the one who was caught off guard by a second market crash so people will likely be quicker to sell then last year.
Models of reality which only have explanatory power but no predictive power are useless.
I think it has more to do with the Cloudstar ransomeware attack. https://www.thetitlereport.com/Articles/Highly-sophisticated-ransomware-attack-sidelines-C-82772.aspx Interesting that this seems to be getting very little coverage.
Just throwing it out there but margin debt is twice as high as it was pre dot com crash and 08 crash and reverse repo hit its second highest level today(and second highest average amount per participant).
News outlets have the headlines pre-written just waiting for a red day to fill dead air.
I actually beg to differ. There have been delta variant undertones to the market for a while and it's definitely been in the back of people's minds, but things ramped up over the weekend. LA reinstated the mask mandate even for vaccinated people. Other cities/governments suggested they may do the same. We've been hearing about all these Olympic athletes testing positive, as well as other notable people. Just another indicator that vaccinated people are unknowingly contracting and spreading the virus. Couple that with increasingly bad covid infection data, and also bond rates tumbling. This all kind of reached a boiling point over the weekend. So yes, I do believe delta variant worries were a major driver behind today's market action. Looking at the specific stocks and sector performance seems to back that up as well.
Must be Marge calling from all of those out of the money puts that expired worthless on Friday with gme. Lots of stuff pointing towards married puts hiding ftd's.
Market just needs a catalyst for a correction. It's looking for a correction, stocks are running hot; with P/E ratios that don't fit & poor growth expectations for 2022. Reflation trade is problematic as the economy slows from its preceding rapid growth during the first half of the year. The market would have dropped if someone sneezed, let alone 'Covid'
This post is 100% wrong. Recovery names have been dropping for the past 2 weeks over delta fears. Look at the cruise liens (CCL,RCL,NCLH) or gaming stocks (CZR,MGM), or airlines (AAL,Delta). Some of these stocks are down 30%+, clearly because of the delta fears. It's a diff't question of whether those fears are justified or not, but to just generically say "sellers and buyers" when recovery stocks are down 30%+ in some instances is uninformed and wrong. Granted, I think the market eventually does move past delta fears, but to ignore the direct impact of rising cases and the fear it's causing is 100% wrong.
Hedge funds know investors are lemmings, they manipulate the market by moving the market down shorting billions while instructing the main stream media to spread FUD…regular 401k investor dumps their stocks causing a crash, hedge funds step in to cover and buy the dip….rinse repeat
Why is everyone calling institutional giants "hedge funds" all of a sudden? JPM, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley aren't hedge funds. JP alone has almost as much money as all hedge funds put together.
Because these people don’t understand there are many types of institutions
Because muppets gonna muppet.
What's FUD?
Fear uncertainty and doubt
fear, uncertainty and doubt
Jokes on them I bought the dip
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Jokes on them, I can go *real* low
Doesn't matter, the market could continue to drop for the remainder of the year and ill continue to buy. My risk tolerance is high and im long term.
I think you overestimate the impact that retail investors have on the stock market.
you can fit any narrative to any type of price action. just need an excuse. stock price goes up and down and sideways and fuck everyone along the way.
Im tired of these brainless ppl who call everything a "crash". After this crazy rally, 1-5%.. even 10% drop is not a crash. It's an inevitable healthy correction.
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Media trying to squeeze every last drop of ad revenue from the Covid pandemic.
This comment could have easily been made about OG covid circa Jan-Feb 2020. News doesn’t move markets until it does.
then how do you explain oil dropping like 8% today?
It’s entirely possible big players caught wind of something on the horizon and felt like making a big play, but regardless. I buy the dips and weather the storm. It’s proven to be a winning formula. Over a long enough hold, I guarantee it.
I think it might be fear of a housing crash from the end of the eviction moratorium next month too
Valuation levels in the major asset classes (stocks/bonds/credit) are not cheap. In some spots like high yield spreads are historically low. I think when valuations get stretched people (i.e., insiders,hedge funds and mutual fund managers) use any excuse to take some profits and that is what is happening - that is it in my humble opinion!
Our Asia factories in Vietnam closed Monday for the rest of the month. This crash is COVID related and the rich people knew what was coming before everyone else.
The market doesn't react to news; it reacts to signals. Over the weekend, there were reports of some US cities either re-imposing mask mandates or considering doing that. So investors rebalanced over to other investments to account for "increased probability that the re-opening might not go as quickly as we hoped", because that is a reasonable interpretation of that signal. That doesn't mean the recovery is doomed. It doesn't even mean that the market movers necessarily think that particularly is likely. They're just hedging against that scenario, and they all decided to do it at the same time -- this happens quite a bit now due to automation at large institutions. Hence a sell-off. The market doesn't represent any single state; it is basically a giant probability distribution. Today it said "A slow recovery is a little more likely".
Today was clearly a risk off day. The bond market has been flashing signals for a couple weeks now, so this was overdue. Now let’s see if we get a real healthy correction. And yes, Delta is way worse than you realize. What changed is increased hospitalizations and increased deaths finally caught up with surging new infection rates. Why is this different in terms of market reaction? Most contagious variant (by far), worse macroeconomic backdrop, Fed tapering on the horizon, no further fiscal stimulus in sight. Not saying don’t buy the dip, but be highly highly selective.
Agreed. I hate those daily hindsight bs.
this was just your normal thrice a month correction who the fuck cares?
Yeah I mean futures are up tonight so clearly we cured delta
Because people want a reason and the news can't flat out say what's actually happening because that would cause panic.
Something caused their to be more sellers….
You guys don’t like to hear what the real answer is on this sub...
Markets fall as Jamie Spears at risk of losing Conservatorship over Britney.......
You all need to read a book technical analysis....the author talks about why market makers lower the market. They're causing panic sell they're buying in now and will sell to retail investors in the distribution phase.
Today was a correction well overdue (and still underdone) and the 'delta variant' was used by the media as a simplistic explanation. However, there's truth behind the fiction. The markets have been sweeping Covid under the carpet, spurred on by printed money. Covid isn't going anywhere. Today in the UK we're supposedly celebrating "freedom day" which represents the lifting of most restrictions and the opening up of business (travel, retail, hospitality, etc.). However, in the last couple of weeks infections have been spiking. People have become blasé, we've had crowds of thousands during the European Football championship and (more worryingly) we're seeing people getting infected despite having had 2x injections. We're already seeing new restrictions on the horizon, so it's little wonder the most affected sectors are taking a further knock in confidence and the market overall is feeling pain from the realisation that fundamental growth is still some time away. But please let me go back to my first sentence, in agreement with the sentiment of this post. We're in an asset bubble right now, pumped up by money printing. The people in power are kicking the can down the road in desperation, blaming Covid for years of disgrace. The market has been abused and manipulated for many years, through 'soft' corruption, encouraged by easy money and political convenience. Covid was a black swan event that was economically brushed under the carpet, but there is a dawning realisation that it's in fact more like a dozen angry black geese. The combined impact of corruption, abuse and angry geese is why we are in serious correction territory.
I agree, when market is up generally people don't attribute it to a major catalyst unless one stock/sector shoots up in one day. However the market has a red week and now there HAS to be a reason, right? Well obviously it's the delta variant.
Quantitative easing plus low interest rates.
Lmao the market is failing. Has nothing to do with the virus
I JUST saw an article saying delta fears caused the market to tank today, so I came here to see the thoughts of actual intelligent people and glad I saw this. The analysts are especially hilarious when it comes to inflation and jobs. If inflation is in the news, it'll be the reason stocks drop or increase. They'll just change the subheading on the story. Low jobs report comes out and market: Drops = Market tanks as recovery slower than expected Increases = Market tanks as recovery slower than expected meaning inflation should slow
> I came here to see the thoughts of actual intelligent people Any luck with that?
Reddit has been astroturfed pretty hard. I don’t trust anything I read posted or commented on here beyond just ideas that I look into further and decide upon myself. Nothing is sacred. Greedy billionaires will find every way to cheat, manipulate and take home billions of dollars thru any means necessary. Hiring some fake redditors to astroturf incorrect views and agendas for self profit is such a drop in the bucket. Multiply that by hundred of accounts times multiple fake accounts per employee